Speaker 1: Drive Time with Travis Wingfield begins. Now let me check
Speaker 1: your pulse if you're not far of what is up?
Speaker 1: Dolphins And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast, part of
Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins podcast network covering your team, your Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 1: How's it going everybody? I am your host, Travis Wingfield,
Speaker 1: And on today's show, it is preview time on the
Speaker 1: road again and then guess what, just one more game
Speaker 1: the rest of the way away from the friendly confines
Speaker 1: of hard Rock Stadium, It'll be Dolphins at Commander's back
Speaker 1: to the preferred for me personally one pm kickoff, keys
Speaker 1: to victory, big matchups, introduction into this crazy Commander's organization,
Speaker 1: top storylines, and much much more. But from the Baptist
Speaker 1: Health Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is
Speaker 1: the Draft Time Podcast. So I made that point off
Speaker 1: the open about the home schedule the rest of the way.
Speaker 1: Right after this week, it's home, home, home, away home,
Speaker 1: and there are no more Hurricanes games here at hard
Speaker 1: Rock Stadium, which means the beautiful aqua end zones and
Speaker 1: the best playing surface in the National Football League College
Speaker 1: football or otherwise is back, and December usually means the
Speaker 1: return of the Aqua jerseys as well. I know folks
Speaker 1: have been looking forward to those a lot. I definitely am.
Speaker 1: I wonder if they'll do Aqua on Aqua this year,
Speaker 1: as my personal favorite uniform combination, although to be perfectly honest,
Speaker 1: I don't really care that much. Maybe the Monday night
Speaker 1: football game would be the spot for those if you
Speaker 1: do them. We do get the Aqua throwbacks on Christmas
Speaker 1: Eve versus Dallas, so I would assume it's Aqua tops
Speaker 1: white pants one game, maybe the throat for sure, the throwbacks,
Speaker 1: then maybe the Aqua on Aqua. Who knows, maybe Aqua
Speaker 1: on white again, I don't know. Again, who cares? I
Speaker 1: always tell myself I don't care about uniforms, and yet
Speaker 1: here I am talking about them. But yeah, the aesthetics
Speaker 1: of a fully painted field with the mo patterns and
Speaker 1: all the good stuff that goes into that, that, for
Speaker 1: whatever reason does matter to me. Probably because I used
Speaker 1: to turn my backyard as a child into a full
Speaker 1: fledged football grounds, so probably some nostalgia involved there. But
Speaker 1: first here, before all of that, a trip to land Over,
Speaker 1: Maryland and FedEx Field. How about the weather report usually
Speaker 1: only include this? If I think it could be impactful,
Speaker 1: and on this Wednesday, things could obviously change. The report
Speaker 1: does call for some precipitation, some rain, at least a
Speaker 1: fifty percent chance of it, but also fifty six degree temperature.
Speaker 1: So a ball me early December day here in the
Speaker 1: nation's capital wins under ten miles an hour. I think
Speaker 1: it was seven last I checked. And with the way
Speaker 1: Miami unleashed its ground game, and for a commander's team
Speaker 1: that leeds league in passing attempts and throws the ball
Speaker 1: a billion times per game, I'm interested to see how
Speaker 1: the report changes over these coming days. Anyway, let's go
Speaker 1: ahead and meet these commandos. They made some coaching changes
Speaker 1: after the loss in Dallas, relieving Jack del Rio of
Speaker 1: his defensive coordinator duties and defensive backs coach Brett Visselmayer.
Speaker 1: And that's where I jump into kind of start monologuing
Speaker 1: off the top here, because the league and seemingly general
Speaker 1: common sense passed del Rio by years ago. In fact,
Speaker 1: I recall watching a breakdown earlier this year, and the
Speaker 1: defensive structural issues were so expected that the creator or
Speaker 1: the voiceover person of this content just said, and you
Speaker 1: have this here because well it's Jack wrote del Rio
Speaker 1: calling a defense, and so while I think it's auditioned
Speaker 1: by subtraction, the guy that put him in that position
Speaker 1: to begin with to run his defense is still there.
Speaker 1: But now I'm supposed to expect it to get better,
Speaker 1: now that you've lopped off one hundred hours worth of
Speaker 1: work over the course of a game week. And is
Speaker 1: Ron taking that on himself? And if he is, where
Speaker 1: does the delegation of his other tasks fall to. I've
Speaker 1: always wondered that. And who's filling in for the one
Speaker 1: hundred hours of the dB coach's work? The same ripple
Speaker 1: effect there. I don't know. I just think it's a
Speaker 1: really poorly coached outfit so far, and it's been that
Speaker 1: way for a moment. Rivera arrived back in twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: the pandemic year, taking over for Jay Gruden, and they
Speaker 1: were coming off a three and thirteen atrocious season. You
Speaker 1: might recall competing with us for a draft position that year,
Speaker 1: and they picked second in a draft that included Burrow
Speaker 1: Tongue Vailoa, Herbert love Hertz and also the prospect that
Speaker 1: everyone was sure was they can't miss and Chase Young.
Speaker 1: And despite the fact that who is their quarterback then.
Speaker 1: I don't even know they didn't have one, right, I
Speaker 1: can't remember who was. I think it was Taylor Heineke,
Speaker 1: and they went for Chase Young over Tua. Detroit did
Speaker 1: the exact same thing with Jeff Okudo and they didn't
Speaker 1: have a quarterback either, So crazy to think about that
Speaker 1: in hindsight, but that's where they went to Chase Young
Speaker 1: and he was that rookie, was a baller, but then
Speaker 1: injuries piled up and he's since been shipped off to
Speaker 1: San Francisco. But that was their first pick under Rivera
Speaker 1: and it helped them win the NFC East that year,
Speaker 1: albeit with a seven to nine losing record, but it
Speaker 1: was a pretty drastic turnaround from a three win season
Speaker 1: that helped inspire some hope under the new regime there,
Speaker 1: and they've stayed in that ballpark the last couple of years.
Speaker 1: Another seven win season back in twenty twenty one. They
Speaker 1: were seven to ten that year with an extra game.
Speaker 1: They were eight eight and one last year with a
Speaker 1: tie that gave him a five hundred record, hilariously, and
Speaker 1: now a four and eight start to the season with
Speaker 1: new ownership. So the biggest win for the Commandos is
Speaker 1: that Dan Snyder is no longer there, right, so they
Speaker 1: have a win in their back pocket this year, but
Speaker 1: it's not going that well. And I'm sure we'll see
Speaker 1: all new faces next year across the board. But I'm
Speaker 1: pretty sure it's a difficult world to operate inside of
Speaker 1: because Josh Harris, the new owner there, he didn't hire
Speaker 1: coach Rivera, he didn't oversee the roster built this way,
Speaker 1: and I think it's tough for a new owner to
Speaker 1: come in right away and have success. We see it
Speaker 1: all the time Carolina Panthers under David Tepper, who's meddling
Speaker 1: in all the football business there, and look at where
Speaker 1: they're at. They're going to be in the basement for
Speaker 1: a long time because of the decisions they've made there
Speaker 1: at the quarterback position, at the head coaching position. And
Speaker 1: we saw it here. It was a struggle, you know,
Speaker 1: back in the oughts right to get things figured out
Speaker 1: from an ownership standpoint. But I think the reason the
Speaker 1: Commanders have hovered around five hundred since Rivera's arrival is
Speaker 1: the talent's pretty good, especially on the offensive side of
Speaker 1: the football. It's one of my favorite group of eligibles
Speaker 1: in the entire NFL because they hit YACHTSI absolute yachtsie
Speaker 1: on Terry McLaurin back in twenty eighteen, a second round
Speaker 1: draft pick, easily a top ten wide receiver. I love, love,
Speaker 1: love Curtis Samuel and those folks that have been with
Speaker 1: the podcast here for a few years know that I
Speaker 1: was dying to get him into a two A tongue
Speaker 1: of my lower led offense back in twenty twenty one.
Speaker 1: Johan Dotson was a first round pick last year. He's
Speaker 1: the man. Diomi Brown's a great fourth like kind of
Speaker 1: vertical stretch and special teams type of receiver. He's in
Speaker 1: the mix there. They brought Logan Thomas in, who's become
Speaker 1: one of the game's better tight ends after being a
Speaker 1: quarterback in college. Brian Robinson was a fourth round pick
Speaker 1: last year, and he looks the part. So they have weapons.
Speaker 1: And then you've got young Sam Howe their fifth round
Speaker 1: pick last year, a guy that was thought to be
Speaker 1: a potential number one overall pick before a final season
Speaker 1: at North Carolina kind of took that off the rails.
Speaker 1: And I think if the Commanders have done anything this
Speaker 1: year that was positive, it's that they've uncovered a guy
Speaker 1: who I think can play in this league. We'll get
Speaker 1: more into the scouting report on him later on, but
Speaker 1: there are things in Howell's game to really build around.
Speaker 1: On the other side, the same twenty twenty class that
Speaker 1: gave you Chase Young also gave you Cameron curl in
Speaker 1: the sixth round, and he's been one of the best
Speaker 1: safeties in the entire NFL. Otherwise, the class didn't provide
Speaker 1: much fruit that year. Twenty twenty one sure as hell
Speaker 1: did though. Jamon Davis is one of their off ball
Speaker 1: linebackers starting He's a first rounder, although it's been a
Speaker 1: struggle for him. Sam Cosmy is their second round pick.
Speaker 1: He starts at guard for them. It's been a struggle
Speaker 1: for him as well. Their third round pick though, cornerback
Speaker 1: Benjamin Saint Jews from Minnesota love his game. He is
Speaker 1: a very physically dominant cornerback at that position. As for
Speaker 1: the rest of the defense, to Ron Payne and Jonathan
Speaker 1: Allen are the two best players on the team. I
Speaker 1: would say they were both first round picks prior to
Speaker 1: Rivera's arrival, and they went Montes sweat as well. Just
Speaker 1: sometimes it's not a great idea to draft the same
Speaker 1: position every year, over and over again, two years back
Speaker 1: to back. Fine strength and your strength, but don't do
Speaker 1: it four years in a row. That's what they did
Speaker 1: here with three first round picks and then a second
Speaker 1: round pick in Montes Sweat. I Digress one of the
Speaker 1: best dtackle combos in the NFL. Major hits there, but
Speaker 1: again they've now traded young and Montese Sweat. They invested
Speaker 1: so much capital upfront, but then you wind up playing
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving. Two rookies off the edge, a fifth rounder
Speaker 1: and kJ Henry and a seventh rounder Andre Jones, Josh James.
Speaker 1: They started that Thanksgiving game and it was evident that
Speaker 1: there was two rookies off the edge in the third
Speaker 1: day of the draft. So it's a team that I
Speaker 1: feel is ready to compete on offense, maybe definitely in
Speaker 1: some transition on defense. And they've come up short in
Speaker 1: a few close games. That's the difference between being four
Speaker 1: and eight and you know, six and six. So that's
Speaker 1: how it goes in this league. They lost an overtime
Speaker 1: to Philadelphia, they lost by a touchdown to the Giants,
Speaker 1: and then again at home to the Giants a few
Speaker 1: weeks ago. Because they had six giveaways. Can't do that.
Speaker 1: They lost in Seattle despite taking a lead with less
Speaker 1: than two minutes to play in that game and the
Speaker 1: defense had to get back on the field. They lost
Speaker 1: to the Eagles again by three. Again, that's the league, right,
Speaker 1: but Miami hasn't made it that way for opposing teams
Speaker 1: barely at all this year. The Patriots back in Week
Speaker 1: two played us pretty close. The Raiders in Week eleven
Speaker 1: plays pretty close. But other inferior teams have gotten the
Speaker 1: stomp from this Dolphins team. Right. How about the storylines
Speaker 1: in this one, So there's a good example right there,
Speaker 1: the fact that Miami tends to wipe out bad teams,
Speaker 1: which is a sign of a great team. By the way.
Speaker 1: Go back in history and check out teams that thrash
Speaker 1: the opposition when they're touchdown plus favorites. That's that's what
Speaker 1: good teams do. Baby, My next storyline kind of got
Speaker 1: wiped out because I expected it to be different than
Speaker 1: it was. But a potential cold weather game, but it
Speaker 1: could be a wet weather game, you know. I think
Speaker 1: it's a good chance to get a test run for
Speaker 1: what Baltimore could be in a few weeks. Fifty isn't
Speaker 1: cold unless you're in South Florida. My daughter's daycare teacher
Speaker 1: the other day on the playground was bundled up in
Speaker 1: like a north face and was shivering. It's like, come on, man,
Speaker 1: it's fifty five, come on, come on now, sixty degrees
Speaker 1: out here. But maybe it moves into the fourth quarter
Speaker 1: and in the evening and could get into the low forty.
Speaker 1: So Miami's ability to come pete in cold, wet weather
Speaker 1: could be good. Again, pretty good chance of rain. Just
Speaker 1: want to see how sloppy conditions affect us. If we
Speaker 1: do get those three game divisional lead on the line
Speaker 1: with five to play, that's more for the what's at
Speaker 1: state category, but it's a storyline to me. Huge opportunity
Speaker 1: here to stretch your lead in the division with the
Speaker 1: Bills off and playing at the Chiefs next week and
Speaker 1: then players returning. Could we get Devon ah chanback that
Speaker 1: would be nice. Could we get Rob Hunt back? That
Speaker 1: would be very nice. There just aren't that many storylines
Speaker 1: for this game. It's kind of what you see is
Speaker 1: what you get. NFC team, they're pretty much knocked out
Speaker 1: a playoff contention at this point. One more loss would
Speaker 1: definitely do that. Nine losses. There's not a lot of
Speaker 1: crossover between former players and coaches. McDaniel had been on
Speaker 1: that staff previously. Obviously, John Embry was there as well,
Speaker 1: and actually Eric Bienemy was the OC at Colorado when
Speaker 1: John Embry was there. That's interesting, I think. And then
Speaker 1: Danny Crossman had a cup of coffee made the roster
Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety for the Washington We won't say the
Speaker 1: team name there, but he was on that roster before
Speaker 1: going on IR after just a few games. So coach
Speaker 1: Crossman a reunion back to his former stomping ground. Let's
Speaker 1: go ahead and continue rolling here before the first break
Speaker 1: and talk about this Dolphins offense versus this Commando's defense.
Speaker 1: And I'm saying that intentionally, by the way, Commander's is
Speaker 1: a to me, a hilarious, hilariously bad name. You know,
Speaker 1: lots of commanders there in Washington in the Capitol, like, okay,
Speaker 1: cool guys. Better than the previous name, though the football
Speaker 1: team sucked, and the name before that was not great either.
Speaker 1: So you're making steadily steady improvements. But maybe we find
Speaker 1: a name that's not corny as hell. Anyway, Dolphins offense
Speaker 1: versus Commando's defense, the safeties Cameron curl and Percy Butler
Speaker 1: played the majority of the snaps. Curls one hundred percent
Speaker 1: snap taker. Butler has been infused in the lineup later
Speaker 1: in the season, so he's only played seventy seven percent
Speaker 1: of those snaps, but he will play every snap in
Speaker 1: this game on Sunday, barring injury. Derek Forrest also has
Speaker 1: played forty one percent of the reps, more of an
Speaker 1: early season starting type of load there, more than it
Speaker 1: is three safety big nickel packages, but just giving you
Speaker 1: guys the full compliment. And then at corner, Kyle Fuller
Speaker 1: and Benjamin Saint Juice are one hundred percent snap takers.
Speaker 1: It's probably their best position on defense outside of those
Speaker 1: two DT's right now. But in the slot, it's been
Speaker 1: a struggle, especially trying to replace the injured Emmanuel Forbes,
Speaker 1: who has kicked Saint Juice inside. That's where he typically
Speaker 1: would go on nickel downs, as Forbes would come into
Speaker 1: the game off the perimeter and Saint Juice would kick inside.
Speaker 1: But now they go to the rookie Jartevas Martin to
Speaker 1: come in and man the slot. I don't think Forbes
Speaker 1: will play in this game. If he does, I would
Speaker 1: run the football at him every single time. He's not
Speaker 1: physically up to the challenge of that. So Jartavas Martin
Speaker 1: and then Danny Johnson's also played twenty two percent of
Speaker 1: the snaps inside God, to be honest with you guys,
Speaker 1: a lot of these names I'm not super familiar with
Speaker 1: inside Deron Payne eighty three percent of the snaps and
Speaker 1: Jonathan Allen eighty one percent. Those guys are game wreckers,
Speaker 1: definitely gonna be in the Keys spoiler alert. And then
Speaker 1: Ridgeways played thirty percent of the snaps. Off the edge.
Speaker 1: They traded away all of their edge production at the
Speaker 1: trade deadline. Casey two Hills played thirty seven percent of
Speaker 1: the snaps. That has increased tenfold since those trades. kJ
Speaker 1: Henry and Andre James, two rookies, have also played ten
Speaker 1: percent of the snaps this year, but those were your
Speaker 1: starters on Thanksgiving, and then off ball linebackers Jamon Davis
Speaker 1: eighty six percent. I loved him out of college. Has
Speaker 1: not had it click for him in terms of the
Speaker 1: mental side of the game. Reminds me so much of
Speaker 1: Kenneth Murray and Los Angeles and you guys, remember what
Speaker 1: happened when we saw that linebacker on that field on
Speaker 1: that day, and then Cody Barton is sixty percent snap taker.
Speaker 1: So I mean, that's pretty much the gist of it.
Speaker 1: They traded away their edge production. The secondary was always
Speaker 1: very thin. The linebackers kind of get caught in mud
Speaker 1: a lot, and they use this personnel accordingly. So their
Speaker 1: base package is a four to three. That's ten percent
Speaker 1: of their workload. They come out of nickel sixty one
Speaker 1: percent of the time, and they played dime seventeen percent
Speaker 1: of the time. And that probably has more to do
Speaker 1: with the fact that they don't really have edge rushers
Speaker 1: right now, and they've pumped that number up with more
Speaker 1: six defensive back packages than usual. But most defenses operate
Speaker 1: from two high concepts, right Like, that's pretty common across
Speaker 1: the league. They'll get to varied looks, but this is
Speaker 1: one of the more consistent teams in terms of what
Speaker 1: they do that's too high. It's similar to the Rivera
Speaker 1: Panthers teams of old, which if you recall, had Sean
Speaker 1: McDermott calling their defense. So think Buffalo with lots of
Speaker 1: those cover two kind of eyes in the quarterback. But
Speaker 1: to the sideline type of looks, only the Commandos do
Speaker 1: not have Taron Johnson, so they don't have the exclusive
Speaker 1: nickel defense they run with him up there. That kind
Speaker 1: of drives the entire scheme there. But evident by what
Speaker 1: we just laid out in the personnel grouping, deployment zone,
Speaker 1: off eyes in the quarterback lighter boxes, that's what you
Speaker 1: can expect. Let's go ahead and take a break right
Speaker 1: there and come back and finish up Dolphins offense versus
Speaker 1: Commander's defense here, and I'm gonna tell you about why
Speaker 1: this team at generating no pressure and why Miami could
Speaker 1: be in for a big, big day offensively. That's next
Speaker 1: here on the Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield,
Speaker 1: brought to you by Auto Nation, continuing the show in
Speaker 1: segment two, Dolphin's offense versus Commando's defense here, and I
Speaker 1: left off talking about the structure of it, and the
Speaker 1: truth is, it's difficult to know what it will be
Speaker 1: exactly because you have a new play caller and the
Speaker 1: guy that was calling the defense previously is no longer
Speaker 1: in the building. So new staff, new direction, but it's
Speaker 1: still kind of the same principle as the defense, Like
Speaker 1: who knows. But what we do have a good sample
Speaker 1: size of is the difference in the Commando's pass rush
Speaker 1: since they traded Chase Young and Montes Sweat. So here's
Speaker 1: the four games post Young and Sweaty era. Fourteen pressures
Speaker 1: versus the Cowboys not bad, twenty three pressures against the
Speaker 1: Giants very good against a team that can't block, thirteen
Speaker 1: against the Seahawks not good. Ten against the Patriots very
Speaker 1: not good. So that's sixty pressures in four games an
Speaker 1: average of fifteen perts. Not that bad. But the Giants
Speaker 1: game really throws it out of whack, doesn't it. But
Speaker 1: here's the eight games prior to that, prior to those
Speaker 1: two trades. Twenty versus the Eagle, that's a great offensive
Speaker 1: line you got twenty fifteen against the Commando or against
Speaker 1: the Giants. Sorry, how does that work out? Though? Like
Speaker 1: we had twenty three with without them and fifteen with them,
Speaker 1: I don't know. Fifteen versus the Falcons is not great.
Speaker 1: Twenty four against the Bear that's great. Twenty one vers
Speaker 1: Philly again, wow, twelve versus Buffalo that was a blowout
Speaker 1: game that was never even like Allen was just chilling
Speaker 1: in the pocket all game long thirty seven versus Denver
Speaker 1: Holy Moly, and then eleven in the opener versus Arizona,
Speaker 1: but no Chase Young in that game. So either way,
Speaker 1: it's a nineteen point four pressures per game average. So
Speaker 1: the pressures have reduced by twenty one percent since the trade.
Speaker 1: I mentioned the personnel change, right, it's two rookies starting
Speaker 1: off the edge with them. It reminds me of the
Speaker 1: Bears last year when we saw them after Robert Quinn
Speaker 1: and Rokwan Smith got traded, and it was kind of like, uh,
Speaker 1: they can't really play anymore. They have one player who
Speaker 1: has over twenty five pressures this year, it's the best
Speaker 1: on their team, Jonathan Allen. In fact, Chase Young still
Speaker 1: leads their team with thirty eight pressures and Sweat is
Speaker 1: third with twenty seven. Deron Pain's the only other player
Speaker 1: who has more than twenty. He has twenty three. So
Speaker 1: spoiler alert here. One of the keys of the game
Speaker 1: for me is going to be to contain those two
Speaker 1: on the interior, both Pain and Alan. Let's talk about
Speaker 1: them here, but first, real quick, casey two Hill has
Speaker 1: twelve pressures, one hundred and eighty nine pass rush reps,
Speaker 1: James Smith Williams has fourteen on one to seventy five.
Speaker 1: kJ Henry has four on fifty five, and it's the
Speaker 1: exact same number for Andrew Jones. Andre Jones, sorry, but
Speaker 1: back to the interior. It's not good. It's what I'm
Speaker 1: telling you guys, two massive, strong, quick, heavy handed complete
Speaker 1: players who can collapse the pocket and two gap to
Speaker 1: win versus the running game. I think Pain is the
Speaker 1: one that draws more attention because he kind of has
Speaker 1: that Wilkins skill set where it's a good punch in
Speaker 1: placement and then very good lower body agilia to kind
Speaker 1: of cross you up. He rushes largely off the right guard,
Speaker 1: so it'd be good to get big rob Beck in
Speaker 1: the mix there. I do think it's been tougher on
Speaker 1: them post trade. In fact, last year he and Jonathan
Speaker 1: Allen were ninth and twelfth among defensive tackles in ESPN's
Speaker 1: pass rush win rate metric. This year they're twenty sixth
Speaker 1: and forty second out of fifty two. But I think
Speaker 1: it goes back to what we said about the Miami
Speaker 1: rush last year, is the ball is out so fast
Speaker 1: that it mitigates a lot of the good pass rush
Speaker 1: you do you get, and the Commanders have had issues
Speaker 1: on top of issues covering the pass down the field
Speaker 1: before we move on. This is why I love having
Speaker 1: Connor Williams in the pivot. Our slides and mic points
Speaker 1: are just always on point. We get the right guy
Speaker 1: double damner every time, and Tua usually has a very
Speaker 1: good interior pocket, which is critical for his skill set.
Speaker 1: I'm curious what it looks like if Rob Hunt is back.
Speaker 1: I would think you have options there because you might
Speaker 1: see Rob Jones back as well. You know, Liam and
Speaker 1: Lester have played a lot, but I think that Liam
Speaker 1: has been the superior player in those regards, so I'm
Speaker 1: curious to see if he moves sides or what it
Speaker 1: could look like there. Come Sunday before the secondary. You guys,
Speaker 1: remember the Charger game, right with Kenneth Murray the linebacker
Speaker 1: chasing his tail all game long. That's gonna happen in
Speaker 1: this game. Cody Barton is maybe the most limited linebacker
Speaker 1: athletically in the league. Jamon Davis is the opposite, but
Speaker 1: he's like Murray, doesn't really know what he's doing. To
Speaker 1: be perfectly house with you, I think Waddle and Reek
Speaker 1: both go for one hundred plus in this game, I
Speaker 1: think we eat. We eat in the Capitol in that
Speaker 1: fifteen to twenty yard range. The inbreaking we love to
Speaker 1: get against those chargers teams and other defenses that play
Speaker 1: the style of defense. I think we'll get a long
Speaker 1: catch and run this week. I'm saying it's Wonnell for
Speaker 1: a fifty plus yard touchdown. That's mostly yeah, that's my prediction.
Speaker 1: A slant or a drag or a crosser where he
Speaker 1: or a glance where he breaks a tackle and is
Speaker 1: off to the races. Moving on to that secondary, Kendall
Speaker 1: Fuller has been a stud for a long time. He's
Speaker 1: off the corner, he reads and reacts and has a
Speaker 1: great trigger. He's a good playmaker, so if you make
Speaker 1: a mistake, he can make you pay. But watching the
Speaker 1: Dallas game, gosh, they really struggle to adapt to motion.
Speaker 1: They were able. The Cowboys were to get free releases
Speaker 1: all game long. They would have guys run with the motion.
Speaker 1: That made the quarterbacks job so easy, like it was
Speaker 1: a declaration immediately pre snap. But if you get that
Speaker 1: to Tua, you're you're screwed. You can't let Tua have that.
Speaker 1: He's gonna dice you up. It's a big ask for
Speaker 1: them this week. And again, the structure of this defense
Speaker 1: reminds me of the Chargers. You've got round pegs and
Speaker 1: square holes, a middle of the field safety who rushes
Speaker 1: to half field, so like outside the numbers to cover
Speaker 1: you know, the perimeter deep ball with a slot cornerback
Speaker 1: playing outside leverage to Cede Lambs, You're giving free access
Speaker 1: inside to CD Lamb without safety help. That is free
Speaker 1: money for the offense. Like that's that's scheduled yards for
Speaker 1: the offense. They also run Tampa two. What year is it?
Speaker 1: Like they do with Cody Barton. Like a four to
Speaker 1: nine linebacker could get matched up on the three vertical,
Speaker 1: which could be Tyreek Hill or Jalen Waddle. That's possible
Speaker 1: that happens. They want to disrupt you. They want to
Speaker 1: play physical and get you off your line. Especially against
Speaker 1: this offense. They'll do that for sure. So I think
Speaker 1: the motion really helps. It helps declare the answers pre snap.
Speaker 1: Benjamin Saint Jus wants to play up in your face.
Speaker 1: But they play a lot like their offense. It's feast
Speaker 1: or famine. They'll jump routes and take chances and they
Speaker 1: only have six picks to show for it, but it's
Speaker 1: also led to sixteen touchdowns allowed from outside the red
Speaker 1: zone twenty plus yard touchdowns. That's the most in the NFL.
Speaker 1: And guests who has the most scoring touchdowns of those
Speaker 1: type the Dolphins fifteen touchdowns from outside the red zone.
Speaker 1: Let's keep that and then finally, the role of the
Speaker 1: running backs is big, I think because of those linebackers
Speaker 1: propensity to jump false keys and get themselves in the
Speaker 1: wrong gaps and then the wrong coverage positions. So a
Speaker 1: quality wide running game could really influence the linebackers in
Speaker 1: the passing game. Getting a chan back would be absolutely awesome.
Speaker 1: But either way, Raheem and Jeff I thought were great
Speaker 1: at stretching things out last week and then finding those
Speaker 1: gaps increases to hit it up into with explosive running attempts.
Speaker 1: They keep you on schedule, gets you explosive runs and
Speaker 1: score touchdowns because this offense, when they have running game going,
Speaker 1: is impossible to stop. Let's go ahead and take our
Speaker 1: last break right there, come back on the other side
Speaker 1: and do the commander's offense versus the Miami defense. Also
Speaker 1: once at stake three keys to victory. All of that
Speaker 1: and a heck of a lot more coming here on
Speaker 1: this Wednesday Dolphins Commander's Preview edition of the Draft Time podcast,
Speaker 1: your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation.
Speaker 1: So if you couldn't tell from the first two segments
Speaker 1: of the show, expect some points from the Dolphins offense
Speaker 1: on this Sunday. Let's go ahead and see how much
Speaker 1: the Commanders might score though, as they have sam Hal
Speaker 1: up against our safety duo of Javon Holland and Deshaun Elliott,
Speaker 1: with Terry mcclaurin playing eighty four percent of the snaps
Speaker 1: out wide, Jahan Dotson playing eighty three percent of those snaps,
Speaker 1: and then Diami Brown is twenty five percent and Byron
Speaker 1: Pringle twenty percent. They'll face the likes of Ramsey and Howard,
Speaker 1: maybe some Apple or camp Smith if there's an injury.
Speaker 1: But that's your depth at the quarterbacks bot obviously. But inside,
Speaker 1: Curtis Samuel plays ninety percent of his reps and he
Speaker 1: plays half of the Commander's reps in general, So what
Speaker 1: is that forty five percent of the time they snapped
Speaker 1: the football, Curtis Samuel is going to be inside the slot.
Speaker 1: Their tight end Logan Thomas plays sixty six percent and
Speaker 1: Nick Bates plays forty five percent. The other tight end
Speaker 1: they have there, so really good skill group. I like
Speaker 1: that bunch of lawn against Kohu and Niedham and Bethel.
Speaker 1: On the interior offensive line, it goes Chris Paul, Tyler,
Speaker 1: Larson and Sam Cosmy. They'll have to deal with Seeler
Speaker 1: and Raykwan and Christian Wilkins in the middle. And then
Speaker 1: off the edge, Charles Lenno the former Bear and Andrew
Speaker 1: Wiley the former Chief are the two tackles they'll have
Speaker 1: to deal with. Obviously Chubb and GANKINAGBA and probably not
Speaker 1: JPP just yet. But I gotta take Phillips off here
Speaker 1: and that really makes me sad, so remove him from
Speaker 1: the roster on there. And then running back first linebacker
Speaker 1: obviously Jerome Baker and David Long with some Andrew Van
Speaker 1: Geinkle Mixon theirs well against Brian Robinson, who plays fifty
Speaker 1: three percent of the snaps and Antonio Gibson plays forty
Speaker 1: one percent. Not a lot of injury news here for
Speaker 1: these guys. They're starting center. Ricky Stromberg is on IR
Speaker 1: and they've really missed him. But then his replacement. Also,
Speaker 1: Nick Gates is down two, so they've really struggled on
Speaker 1: the interior offensive line because they're starting a journeyman and
Speaker 1: Tyler Lawson their personnel Tyler Larson. Their personnel usage eleven personnel,
Speaker 1: one receiver or one running back, one tight end, three
Speaker 1: receivers is three quarters of the time seventy five percent.
Speaker 1: They bring that second tight end on the field for
Speaker 1: twelve personnel seventeen percent of the time. They'll bring a
Speaker 1: third tight end for thirteen personnel four percent of the time.
Speaker 1: And they do run some twenty one, which is two
Speaker 1: backs and one tight end, but it's always fast twenty
Speaker 1: one with Robinson and Gibson in the game no full back.
Speaker 1: They run that just under three percent of the time.
Speaker 1: So I mentioned the attrition at the center spot. That's
Speaker 1: one of the toughest positions in the NFL to replaces,
Speaker 1: and to have to do it twice. I think it's
Speaker 1: been the biggest reason for some of those sack production
Speaker 1: the teams have had against this Commando's team, because teams
Speaker 1: put how on the turf a lot, he gets hit
Speaker 1: a lot, he gets sacked a lot, and ruins a
Speaker 1: lot of drives and this line has some good pieces
Speaker 1: and how does hold the ball forever. But teams have
Speaker 1: really really excelled running games inside. And I think it's
Speaker 1: the combination of a second year quarterback who played just
Speaker 1: one game as a rookie, so really a rookie quarterback
Speaker 1: and a center who's been a journeyman across the NFL.
Speaker 1: I think it's tough to get your protection sorted without
Speaker 1: flaw in those circumstances. And we've seen that, and we'll
Speaker 1: talk about Sam Cosmy as well, but he also gets
Speaker 1: walked into the quarterback for a living, it seems like.
Speaker 1: But all that said, this is my first time studying
Speaker 1: Sam Howe. I like him a lot. Some of the
Speaker 1: protection lapses are covered up because he's got a ton
Speaker 1: of creativity. It does produce a lot of sacks, again,
Speaker 1: but their biggest plays come from off schedule splash plays
Speaker 1: from Sam Howe creating. There's an occasional lapse like ball
Speaker 1: security or he runs too high with it, loses the football.
Speaker 1: He can be loose with it, puts it in harm's way,
Speaker 1: will force a throw into a coverage structure that's not
Speaker 1: supposed to go in that direction. All of that is
Speaker 1: there but again, first year starting, and there's enough anticipatory
Speaker 1: throws with plenty of creativity that makes me think they
Speaker 1: ought to build this thing around this guy in the
Speaker 1: immediate future. You're not like you're not giving up a
Speaker 1: lot to do that. I think they're gonna be too
Speaker 1: far away from getting one of the top three or
Speaker 1: four quarterbacks in the draft this year. It's gonna win
Speaker 1: a couple more games and push themselves into that kind
Speaker 1: of ten twelve of the draft range. But what are
Speaker 1: you gonna do, Go sign a veteran quarterback who's not
Speaker 1: gonna play well for you. I would keep how and
Speaker 1: build this thing around him because he's got cheap contract
Speaker 1: for two more years, and they could make some noise
Speaker 1: if they fix that defense a little bit and get
Speaker 1: better on the offensive line. But again, you know, first
Speaker 1: year starting, all that stuff, it looks pretty good. And
Speaker 1: I was texting Kyle Krabs, I'm saying, there's some winning
Speaker 1: traits here for this quarterback. But I also said to him,
Speaker 1: I guarantee you this guy was a shortstop at some
Speaker 1: point in his life. Sure enough, he played college baseball,
Speaker 1: was a pitcher in college, but he also was an
Speaker 1: infielder in high school, and you can just see it
Speaker 1: in how he plays. He can throw with weird feet,
Speaker 1: setups like not being aligned, multiple arm angles, and really
Speaker 1: control the football with that wrist action that baseball players
Speaker 1: know all about. He threw a dart on a broken
Speaker 1: play from a three quarter release to Brian Robinson in
Speaker 1: the Seattle game that hit him on the upfield shoulder
Speaker 1: and turned into a huge play like one of a
Speaker 1: crazy throw. That was the first play I watched of
Speaker 1: this team. Shows the right guard sam coused Me not
Speaker 1: having a feel for the blitz, just let a cornerback
Speaker 1: a cat blitz go in there unblocked. There was field
Speaker 1: pressure locks in on the two technique that easily could
Speaker 1: have been passed off to the center with him just
Speaker 1: sliding over to the be gap to pick up that
Speaker 1: cat blitz. The very next play, cat Cosme gets walked
Speaker 1: back into the lap of how then again on the
Speaker 1: next snap, it's just it's tough. It's tough inside at
Speaker 1: that right guard spot, and then they're slow off the edges.
Speaker 1: So the entire right side in general, I think is
Speaker 1: vulnerable to games and action and speed and speed to power,
Speaker 1: And that's why I think this game serves as an
Speaker 1: opportunity for us to get a little bit of bounce
Speaker 1: back from JP's loss, because I think Andrew Van Ginkle
Speaker 1: could get himself in the backfield for a sack. This
Speaker 1: week I mentioned the forcing of some throws. He will
Speaker 1: lock into concepts and sort of ignore rotation, so I
Speaker 1: could see five, six, seven sacks in this game could
Speaker 1: be a lot in this one. I think this is
Speaker 1: a game where you don't blitz a lot. Maybe some
Speaker 1: games an occasional third down, you know blitz, But Howel
Speaker 1: is capable of iding that and making you pay and
Speaker 1: getting it to his hot. I think you have to
Speaker 1: let occasional mistakes that he makes come to you because
Speaker 1: he will have them every game, regardless of pressure. But
Speaker 1: you can also speed it up and force more of those,
Speaker 1: I suppose, So it's a little bit give and take.
Speaker 1: As always, this decision is trusted with coach Fangio, not me,
Speaker 1: so that's kind of how I take it. But to
Speaker 1: put a bow on all this, I don't think Washington
Speaker 1: has a quarterback problem at all. He does have some valleys,
Speaker 1: and the hope as you put him in one of those,
Speaker 1: typically by muddying it up and letting your rush get
Speaker 1: after him. He takes way too many sacks. He runs
Speaker 1: upright and high, will put the ball in precurious spots
Speaker 1: with the forced throws. But he is a big play
Speaker 1: waiting to happen at all times. I love love their
Speaker 1: skill group. I projected is the seventh seed in the
Speaker 1: NFC back in September because of the skill group. For me,
Speaker 1: mclaurin's easily top ten one of the best technicians and
Speaker 1: route runners. I think that you either go ramsey on
Speaker 1: him or double at all times. I would not let
Speaker 1: him get any other matchup. Besides that, we have to
Speaker 1: tackle exceptionally well in this game because Curtis Samuel can
Speaker 1: make big plays after the catch, Diami Brown can get
Speaker 1: down the field, and then Johan Dotson is a master
Speaker 1: as well. All that and Logan Thomas is a load too.
Speaker 1: They have man beaters, guys that can uncover quickly, and
Speaker 1: I think Miami's complex zones that bleed into each other
Speaker 1: would make a lot more sense here to prevent the
Speaker 1: chances of losing a one on one rep where you
Speaker 1: could get beat for a big play. Because again they're
Speaker 1: so good with their five eligibles, I think you need
Speaker 1: cater Coohu to be at his best this week because
Speaker 1: he's gonna see some good matchups with Dotson, with Samuel,
Speaker 1: with McLaurin kicking inside. He'll see some quality receivers on
Speaker 1: the interior there, especially if you use him as a blitzer,
Speaker 1: because I think those cat blitzer from the slot could
Speaker 1: be really effective to kind of confuse the protection but
Speaker 1: also get how to the ground. His time to throw
Speaker 1: is two point eight, which is middle of the pack.
Speaker 1: I thought I'd be higher than that, but it's still
Speaker 1: not anywhere near to is two point two, you know,
Speaker 1: and we praise their quarterbacks and wide receivers again, the
Speaker 1: offensive line is just rough it cause me looks like
Speaker 1: this the snap of leam Leickenberg and the splits in
Speaker 1: Buffalo often. I think Christian has a huge day. I
Speaker 1: think Gink has a huge day. I think Chubb can
Speaker 1: get past the heavy footed Charles Leno. I think all
Speaker 1: three of those guys are gonna get sack production in
Speaker 1: this game. They split time with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson,
Speaker 1: with Robinson very good lateral cut agility or ability and
Speaker 1: his big frame stresses one main thing. Just have gap
Speaker 1: discipline don't you know, collapse the backside because he can't
Speaker 1: get to that backside on the ben back route. Also
Speaker 1: need linebackers to watch him in the passing game because
Speaker 1: he will get out wide and he is a load
Speaker 1: on the perimeter when he gets a full head of
Speaker 1: steam chuggin towards your defensive backs. And Antonio Gibson's kind
Speaker 1: of similar in the passing game, but he doesn't run
Speaker 1: guys over. He's just quick and shifty. But he's not
Speaker 1: been the same guy since a lot of injuries have
Speaker 1: piled up over the last couple of years. I think
Speaker 1: they can score, but I always think we can turn
Speaker 1: them over, get a couple, put the ball back in
Speaker 1: our offensive hands, and I think you could turn this
Speaker 1: game into a boat race if you do that. What's
Speaker 1: at stake for your Miami Dolphins this weekend up in
Speaker 1: Washington a three game lead in the division if you
Speaker 1: win the game, So go do that. Take a three
Speaker 1: game lead into September eleventh on Monday Night Football against
Speaker 1: the Titans, and the Bills lose the game against the
Speaker 1: Chiefs on that Sunday and you beat Tennessee, you are
Speaker 1: then a win over the Jets away from clinching the
Speaker 1: division the following week, so you can also catch Baltimore
Speaker 1: because they're off this week, and you surpass them with
Speaker 1: a superior conference record if you win because they're idle
Speaker 1: this week. In fact, this week could play out a
Speaker 1: lot like last week, where you see the top spot
Speaker 1: in the conference for a few hours, so a win
Speaker 1: leap frogs you over Baltimore for the week. Then the
Speaker 1: Chiefs play the Sunday Night football game, and you know,
Speaker 1: come back on Thursday for picks, where I might be
Speaker 1: picking another Green Bay upset like we nailed on Thanksgiving.
Speaker 1: Maybe we'll see. Then the Jags are on Monday Night
Speaker 1: Football against the Bengals. Wish they had Burrow for that one.
Speaker 1: So if they win, the worst case scenario is you're
Speaker 1: in the three spot, but really you're in a four
Speaker 1: way tie for spots one through four. The best case
Speaker 1: scenario is a win, Kansas City loses on Sunday Football,
Speaker 1: Jacksonville loses on Monday Night FOOTB and then you'd be
Speaker 1: tied for Baltimore for the top spot. But again we
Speaker 1: have the conference tiebreaker there, so you'd be number one
Speaker 1: in the conference if that all fell your way. But
Speaker 1: I'm not counting on Jake Browning to beat Jacksonville, but
Speaker 1: I might be counting on Jordan Love to beat KC.
Speaker 1: Losing puts you at the bottom of the heap and
Speaker 1: kind of gives Bills the Bill's life, So don't do that.
Speaker 1: Technically speaking, this and the Dallas game in three weeks
Speaker 1: are the two least important games left. And I say
Speaker 1: that with air quotes because they're still vital. But it
Speaker 1: doesn't impact the tiebreakers, right, That's all I'm talking about here.
Speaker 1: So the scale isn't a major slider of this week,
Speaker 1: just eight percent in terms of playoff odds. Look, this
Speaker 1: team's going to the playoffs. It's what it is. It's
Speaker 1: more about trying to get to the one seat at this point.
Speaker 1: But if you win, you make it really really tough
Speaker 1: for the Bills to see a path back into the
Speaker 1: divisional hunt. So, in fact, win this week and again
Speaker 1: beat them in week eighteen, if you just do those
Speaker 1: two things, your division champions. Of course, we hope to
Speaker 1: lock it down well before that, but I think it's
Speaker 1: quality perspective on how close we are to seizing the AFCAS.
Speaker 1: That's you're a gray hat. Tony Sperano once said, my
Speaker 1: three keys to victory mide gate the Commander's interior pass rush.
Speaker 1: There is nothing off the edge. Everything's inside, but they
Speaker 1: have struggled. Just keep Pain and Alan at bay and
Speaker 1: you should have a lot of success offensively. Number two,
Speaker 1: plaster when Sam Howell breaks the pocket. All of their
Speaker 1: big plays offensively, typically not all of them, but most
Speaker 1: of them come when he is able to get off
Speaker 1: structure and create plays after the facts. So don't let
Speaker 1: him do that. Plaster to your receivers down the field
Speaker 1: when he breaks, contain and hopefully you can get your
Speaker 1: rush after him, or he runs the ball and you
Speaker 1: can put a lick on him and make him fumble
Speaker 1: the football. Number three, get the play action game rolling.
Speaker 1: I'm going after Cody Barton and Jamon Davis all game long,
Speaker 1: just like I went after the Chargers linebackers back in
Speaker 1: Week one to create some of those interior, middle of
Speaker 1: the field intermediate passing options to Tyreek and Jalen. Those
Speaker 1: are my three keys. Get the play action game rolling.
Speaker 1: Plaster when Howe breaks the pocket and contain the rush
Speaker 1: of Pain and Alan. My areas of concern off script
Speaker 1: creativity from Hal and Robinson on the perimeter, plus the
Speaker 1: big playability from the skill guys areas to exploit poor
Speaker 1: interior pass protection, and the entire Washington defense. My prediction,
Speaker 1: I'm going twenty forty two to twenty four. I've got
Speaker 1: it at forty two seventeen with like two and a
Speaker 1: half to play, but they find the end zone in
Speaker 1: garbage time to make it look a little bit closer.
Speaker 1: So I had been over on my last several Dolphins
Speaker 1: point projections, but I undersold our points on Friday for
Speaker 1: the first time in a while. I think Miami's gonna
Speaker 1: get back on track offensively this week and cut down
Speaker 1: the mistakes, cut on the take the turnovers, and get
Speaker 1: back to posting forty spots and being that offense that's like, WHOA,
Speaker 1: They're back. I think it's gonna happen at some point.
Speaker 1: I think it happens this week and next week and
Speaker 1: probably the following week two. So that's my prediction here.
Speaker 1: When I watched this Washington defense again, same issues as
Speaker 1: the Chargers back in Week one. Tough game for the linebackers,
Speaker 1: no pass rush. I think you're gonna live on those
Speaker 1: fifteen twenty yard in breakers. I think you'll get some
Speaker 1: of the slow developing play action deep shots like the
Speaker 1: post routes or the chair concept with him running the
Speaker 1: deep over. Things of that nature, waddle and hill run
Speaker 1: those deep overs. I think we can make some plays
Speaker 1: to get explosive degenerate points, especially playing catch up. The
Speaker 1: Commanders can so forty two seventeen Mike White in the game,
Speaker 1: they score late, make it forty two to twenty four.
Speaker 1: Me come back with four out of the last five
Speaker 1: at home at nine and three. That's my time before
Speaker 1: I got it here though. Just want to make a
Speaker 1: quick mention of the Hard Knocks episode. I'll do a
Speaker 1: more in depth breakdown tomorrow on the show, but just
Speaker 1: want to go ahead and let JP Jalen Phillips know
Speaker 1: that we're thinking about it and we care about him.
Speaker 1: I know it's just a football injury, but like that
Speaker 1: was hard to watch man, heartbreaking to see him go
Speaker 1: through the entire moment there and the emotion that overcame
Speaker 1: him when he realized what exactly was ahead of him.
Speaker 1: Now with an achilles tear, so successful surgery for JP.
Speaker 1: He'll be back better than ever. I know he will.
Speaker 1: We're thinking about Jaylen Phillips. That's my time for the
Speaker 1: Commander's Preview podcast tomorrow. JP Finley joins me to break
Speaker 1: down this Commander's team. We'll still try to figure out
Speaker 1: a Friday guest. I don't have that locked in yet,
Speaker 1: but as always, we'll have a variety show for you
Speaker 1: guys on Friday as well. In the meantime, that's going
Speaker 1: to be my time you all. Please be sure to
Speaker 1: subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever the
Speaker 1: hell you get your podcast from. Go ahead and leave
Speaker 1: it a rating, leave us a review. You can follow
Speaker 1: me on social at Winkfield, NFL and the team at
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. You can catch me on the postgame show
Speaker 1: on five sixty and Big one O five FM, one
Speaker 1: O five nine FM, I should say, as well as
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app with OJ McDuffie and Seth Levitt. You
Speaker 1: can also find their podcast The Fish Tank here. The
Speaker 1: Great Olivier Vernon episode is up right now, go back
Speaker 1: and check that out. Also the team YouTube channel for
Speaker 1: Media Availabilities and Dolphins Today, and last but not least,
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins dot com. Until next time, Finza, Carolina, Cameron,
Speaker 1: Daddy just coming home.