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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of this show.

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Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. We have an

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Speaker 3: amazing show today. What do we have, Crystal, indeed we do.

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Speaker 2: Stayed up for Trump's big speech last night and pretty

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Speaker 2: much everybody hated it, ourselves included certainly the market. So

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Speaker 2: we'll take a look at the highlights and lowlights of

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Speaker 2: that one Tree to Parsi is also going to join

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Speaker 2: to break that down.

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Speaker 4: In the Iranian.

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Speaker 2: Reaction, We're going to take a closer look at the

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Speaker 2: backlash in Europe, the economic pain that they are already suffering,

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Speaker 2: and what's to come what they're doing about it. We're

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Speaker 2: also going to look at the Gulf Arab freakount as

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Speaker 2: the UAE said they want to join the fight directly,

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Speaker 2: and Iran continues to cause significant damage throughout the region.

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Speaker 4: An economic historian.

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Speaker 2: Is going to join us to talk about just how

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Speaker 2: much the world order has already shifted with Iran claiming

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Speaker 2: significant economic power, and are we already seeing the AI

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Speaker 2: bubble collapse. There are some pretty extraordinary indicators in that direction.

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Speaker 1: Yes, that's right.

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Speaker 3: Thank you to everybody who's been subscribing and supporting the

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Speaker 3: a premium subscriber. But today we have our biggest ask

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Speaker 3: do so, and we will hit the coveted two million.

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Speaker 3: Not that you actually get a plaque or anything. It's

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Speaker 3: purely for bragging, right, So one point nine to nine get.

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Speaker 1: Us a two million. It's just unseemly to see those two.

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Speaker 3: Nines by themselves, a nice clear two point zero. As

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Speaker 3: much it's it's nice it's clean. It's clean, and thank

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Speaker 3: you to right exactly into the Easter holiday, all right,

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Speaker 3: and thank you also to our podcast listeners for subscribing it.

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Speaker 3: So for sharing the show, please rate us five stars

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Speaker 3: if you're able to do so, or share an episode

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Speaker 3: with a friend really helps other people find it. But

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Speaker 3: as Christal said, we had a landmark. Trump's speech or

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Speaker 3: as in it basically said nothing. I'm calling it the

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Speaker 3: mission almost accomplished speech.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we stayed up late. There's bags underneath my eyes.

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Speaker 3: All for effectively an amalgamation of truth social posts and

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Speaker 3: for anybody watching this show, absolutely nothing of substance or

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Speaker 3: new was said. If anything, the substance was that he

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Speaker 3: has no plan and is truly caught in a rock

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Speaker 3: and a hard place. He gave us a new update

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Speaker 3: of a timeline two to three weeks of when the

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Speaker 3: combat operations will resume, at least according to him.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 5: We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next

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Speaker 5: two to three weeks. We're going to bring them back

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Speaker 5: to the stone ages where they belong. Time no deal

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Speaker 5: is made, we have our eyes or in key targets.

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Speaker 5: If there is no deal, we are going to hit

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Speaker 5: each and every one of their electric generating plants very

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Speaker 5: hard and probably simultaneously. We have not hit their oil,

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Speaker 5: even though that's the easiest target of all because it

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Speaker 5: would not give them even a small chance of survival

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Speaker 5: or rebuilding. But we could hit it and it would

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Speaker 5: be gone, and there's not a thing they could do

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Speaker 5: about it.

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Speaker 3: Nothing they could do about it. I mean, this is

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Speaker 3: why it was very mission almost accomplished. It was like,

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Speaker 3: we've decimated them, we will continue to do so. But

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Speaker 3: the big picture takeaway was it was neither a call

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Speaker 3: to end the war. It was also neither a call

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Speaker 3: to expand the war. It was basically a call of

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Speaker 3: continuation of the current bombing campaign and continuing threats to

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Speaker 3: the Iranian regime, saying that if you do not sign

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Speaker 3: some sort of a ceasefire reopen the straits of hormone,

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Speaker 3: then this will continue and will attack.

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Speaker 1: Your energy grid.

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Speaker 3: But that actually does show how stuck Donald Trump is.

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Speaker 3: And I think it's worth going through the options right crystal,

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Speaker 3: where you have this option of a ground invasion or

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Speaker 3: of this insane uranium grab, which we'll get to in

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Speaker 3: a little bit of what the exact details are. While

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Speaker 3: that would obviously draw US in further that would be

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Speaker 3: a disaster. You could obviously bomb Iranian energy infrastructure and

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Speaker 3: desalination plans. But after a month of bombing, the Iranians

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Speaker 3: are continuing their ability to strike critical infrastructure all across

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Speaker 3: the Gulf. So we know that if we do that,

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Speaker 3: then they will do that to the Golf, precipitating moreid

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Speaker 3: energy crisis. And then you have the Straits of Hormuz problem.

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Speaker 3: The Straits of Hormuz problem that it's closed that the

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Speaker 3: Iranians have almost total control over it.

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Speaker 1: They're able to charge.

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Speaker 3: This toll, they're asking for denomination in wand and or cryptocurrency.

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Speaker 3: They're making deals with the Philippines, with India, with China,

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Speaker 3: with various different nations. But it is closed to all

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Speaker 3: critical US allies and specifically to the Golf. And so

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Speaker 3: he has no plan for reopening it. And the only

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Speaker 3: declaration he really could give was you guys who depend

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Speaker 3: on it, you go and take it. And so if

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Speaker 3: he unilaterally tacos, it's a surrender. If he continues just

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Speaker 3: bombing infrastructure, it will still come back to bite us

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Speaker 3: in our energy markets. And if he does a ground

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Speaker 3: invasion then we're going to draw further.

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Speaker 1: Into this thing.

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Speaker 3: So I actually think that the speech is very important

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Speaker 3: to show how stuck Donald Trump is in the crisis

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Speaker 3: of his own making and the world and the rest

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Speaker 3: of us by extension.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, there are zero good options on the table

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Speaker 2: right now. There are only terrible options on the table

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Speaker 2: right now visa you know, America and America's pre eminence

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Speaker 2: in the world. And so this speech was basically like, oh,

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Speaker 2: we're doing an amazing job. Of course, we haven't actually

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Speaker 2: accomplished any of our strategic objectives, and things are measurably

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Speaker 2: worse than they were before we started this war. But

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Speaker 2: we're just going to continue basically the same thing for

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Speaker 2: the next two to three weeks and hope that something

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Speaker 2: about that changes the dynamic. So, you know, there was

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Speaker 2: all kinds of insider info being leaked before, Oh he's

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Speaker 2: going to signal that the war is coming to an end,

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Speaker 2: or oh he's going to signal that there's going to

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Speaker 2: be a ground invasion. He signaled absolutely nothing. And so

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Speaker 2: I think the markets, which have been sort of delusional

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Speaker 2: about the idea like this can't possibly go on, right,

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Speaker 2: This has to this cannot persist something has to change.

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Speaker 2: He's definitely going to find some way to extricate himself

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Speaker 2: in the country, in the world from this situation. They

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Speaker 2: listened to this speech and they were like, oh, you've

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Speaker 2: got nothing. Actually you actually have nothing, and you're you're

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Speaker 2: not unilaterally talkoing, You're saying, Okay, this is going to

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Speaker 2: kind of go on two to three weeks. But that

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Speaker 2: basically means indefinitely could put a two up on the screen.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we instantly saw oil prices going back up.

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Speaker 2: Look at that surge, we saw put the next one

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Speaker 2: up on the screen. You saw stock futures tanking. And

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Speaker 2: this is after they had rallied based on some of

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Speaker 2: the noises he was making and some of the information

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Speaker 2: that was being leaked about hard he was looking for

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Speaker 2: an exit, so he has run out of his ability

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Speaker 2: to bullshit the markets. And I think that was the

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Speaker 2: real goal of this speech, was to continue to try

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Speaker 2: to buy himself some time so he can figure out

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Speaker 2: what he's going to do here, or give himself some

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Speaker 2: time maybe to continue to mass more military assets in

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Speaker 2: the region to pursue whatever next military option he's going

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Speaker 2: to pursue. But certainly people were not comforted by this

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Speaker 2: far from it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and everybody keep in mind, you know we're recording

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Speaker 3: this early in the morning, before the markets closed. Where

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Speaker 3: things stand right now is the S and P futures

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Speaker 3: are down one point sixty seven percent. And actually, what's

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Speaker 3: even crazier is the huge rally in crude oil fore

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Speaker 3: you West Texas specifically, it's at one hundred and nine

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Speaker 3: dollars of barrel nine point seven percent in the pre

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Speaker 3: market open. Brent is also at one oh nine. What's

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Speaker 3: interesting is that the spread between those two, which traditionally

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Speaker 3: Brent for the last month or so had been about

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Speaker 3: ten dollars a barrel higher than West Texas, they have

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Speaker 3: now equalized too, roughly the same price, either affecting a

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Speaker 3: total price, but reflecting I think what people know now,

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Speaker 3: which is that people are going to have to come

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Speaker 3: and buy oil either you know, from wherever across the globe,

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Speaker 3: limited amount of supply and the equalization of price. This

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Speaker 3: is from some oil analysts which I follow. What that demonstrates, though,

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Speaker 3: is that gas prices for us here at home, at

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Speaker 3: least in the interim, because remember if he says two

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Speaker 3: to three weeks, that is an effective more declaration of

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Speaker 3: two to three weeks of effective closure in the Straits

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Speaker 3: of Hormuz. Now one of the reasons why we're not

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Speaker 3: in a full blown catastrophe scenario. I was listening to

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Speaker 3: Javier blass over at Bloomberg this morning. What he explained

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Speaker 3: is that there actually was a bit of a glut

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Speaker 3: in the oil market, so there was a lot of

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Speaker 3: floating storage. There was approximately actually about a month of

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Speaker 3: you know, storage and or capacity inside the system, because

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Speaker 3: it takes a long time for these ships to make

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Speaker 3: their ways across the oceans, you know, to Asia to Europe.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's like almost forty days actually from the

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Speaker 3: unit to the United States. So obviously there was a

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Speaker 3: lot of actually elasticity in the side the system. But

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Speaker 3: all of that has now effectively been used up. There's

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Speaker 3: no more spare capacity. And with no more spare capacity,

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Speaker 3: then you're gonna see the real shortage. And the other

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Speaker 3: problem is, you know, in a lot of ways, he

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Speaker 3: actually contextualized something very interesting to me, which is that

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Speaker 3: at the end of the day, like people like us

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Speaker 3: focusing on the actual price of the barrel, why do

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Speaker 3: we care about the price of a barrel of oil?

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Speaker 3: We don't what we care about is the price of

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Speaker 3: these refined products what Rory has called these what is

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Speaker 3: it middle distillates.

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Speaker 1: I think that's what he said.

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Speaker 3: And those distillates are like jet fuel, gasoline. Well, jet

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Speaker 3: fuel in Europe just hit two hundred dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 3: That's after Singapore hit two hundred a barrel. You have

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Speaker 3: got airports across Asia and across Europe issuing basically guidance saying, hey,

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Speaker 3: there's a chance where we just don't have jet fuel,

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Speaker 3: like you can't land here in a few months. So

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Speaker 3: three more weeks of closure of the Strait is not

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Speaker 3: just an oil problem.

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Speaker 1: It's a jet fuel problem. It's a gasoline problem.

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Speaker 3: Diesel six dollars a gallon looking very very likely. I

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Speaker 3: think Europe again, you know two hundred dollars a barrel,

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Speaker 3: So you can actually see how the crisis is now

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Speaker 3: escalating dramatically in two to three weeks, and that's what's

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Speaker 3: catching up to the reality of the oil market. And

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Speaker 3: again to stand with Donald Trump's speech, he actually did

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Speaker 3: address gas prices head on, and it was the opposite

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Speaker 3: of comforting. It was just the classic short term gain

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Speaker 3: for long term, short term pain for long term gain

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Speaker 3: here's what he had to say.

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Speaker 5: Many Americans have been concerned to see the recent rise

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Speaker 5: in gasoline prices here at home. The short term increase

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Speaker 5: has been entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching

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Speaker 5: deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries

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Speaker 5: that have nothing to do with the conflict. This is

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Speaker 5: yet more proof that Iran can never be trusted with

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Speaker 5: nuclear weapons. They will use them, and they will use

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Speaker 5: them quickly.

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Speaker 1: I love this.

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Speaker 3: So it is proved Iran cannot be trusted because they

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Speaker 3: will attack if we attack them. I'm pretty sure that's

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Speaker 3: the strategic logic of literally every country in the world.

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Speaker 3: But you could see the short term increase is the

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Speaker 3: result of Iran, not the United States launching and entering

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Speaker 3: into this war. Really though, you know what's also fascinating

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Speaker 3: is how undemocratic this entire war has been. TMZ doing

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Speaker 3: such a great job of tracking all these congressmen on

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Speaker 3: their vacations. Lindsey Graham, a childless seventy year old free

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Speaker 3: hanging out at Disney World. Sorry, you know, I've made

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Speaker 3: my princess with this princess wand I've made the declaration

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Speaker 3: here on the show that I'm not going to Disney.

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Speaker 3: Daughter may change my mind around age four or five.

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Speaker 3: I don't want to see Grandpa Lindsay walking around childless

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Speaker 3: man with the Princess Juan while my daughter's there.

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Speaker 2: Just me okay, Wally's sending our sons and daughters off

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Speaker 2: to the Middle East.

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Speaker 4: EI, how about that if you want to.

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Speaker 2: You know, I mean, it's just disgusting to me so

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Speaker 2: right that too, you know, it almost it almost is

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Speaker 2: lost in all of the mania that there was no vote,

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Speaker 2: there was no debate. You know, there's been very little

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Speaker 2: direct information given to the American public, and to the

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Speaker 2: extent there is, they just consistently lie.

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Speaker 4: About what every day the goals change.

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Speaker 2: Marco Rubio now is added back, you know, making sure

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Speaker 2: that iron can never have a nuclear weapon. That's in

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Speaker 2: the latest iteration of what the goals are. It's just,

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Speaker 2: to your point, fundamentally undemocratic in a way that is

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Speaker 2: deeply troubling because it seems to signal they don't think

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Speaker 2: that they need democratic consent. They didn't bother manufacturing consent.

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Speaker 2: They barely bother to speak to us. And I think

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Speaker 2: the only reason that Trump gave this speech yesterday which

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Speaker 2: was you know, pack full of lies and deception as usual.

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Speaker 2: But I think it was not really about the American people.

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Speaker 2: It was trying to calm the markets and give them,

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Speaker 2: you know, make sure that oil prices stay low per barrel,

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Speaker 2: make sure the markets go up, make sure the bond yields,

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Speaker 2: and that's the other thing we need to continue to

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Speaker 2: talk about, make sure the bond yields don't spike up

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Speaker 2: too high, because you know, that is a significant a

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Speaker 2: driver of his moves as anything else. And then there

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Speaker 2: was this really wild moment where he's like, well, we've

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Speaker 2: been doing this for a month, but like if you

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Speaker 2: think about like World War One or World War two,

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Speaker 2: this is nothing in the grand scheme of the type

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Speaker 2: of wars that we typically wage. Let's go ahead and

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Speaker 2: take a listen to that zod.

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Speaker 5: We'll hit them with missiles very hard. Again, we have

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Speaker 5: all the cards they have done. It's very important that

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Speaker 5: we keep this conflict in perspective. American involvement in World

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Speaker 5: War One lasted one year, seven months and five days.

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Speaker 5: World War two lasted four three years, eight months, and

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Speaker 5: twenty five days. The Korean War lasted for three years,

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Speaker 5: one month, and two days the Vietnam War lasted for

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Speaker 5: nineteen years, five months, and twenty nine days. Iraq went

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Speaker 5: on for eight years, eight months and twenty eight days.

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Speaker 5: We are in this military, so powerful, so brilliant against

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Speaker 5: one of the most powerful countries for thirty two days,

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Speaker 5: and the country has been eviscerated and essentially is really

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Speaker 5: no longer a threat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not use it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if I was advising him, if

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Speaker 2: I would be like, you know, definitely remind people about

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Speaker 2: Vietnam and Iraq in this speech. Definitely bring those wars

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Speaker 2: up in comparison to what we're doing now.

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Speaker 3: I oppose like half of the wars he just listed,

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Speaker 3: and by the way, every single one of those at

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Speaker 3: least had the pretext of Congress, who was authorizing all

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Speaker 3: of those operations. I would also note that in the

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Speaker 3: case of Iraq, Iraq and of Vietnam, that in both

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Speaker 3: of those the way that it was sold to the

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Speaker 3: American people was basically exactly like this, It's just a

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Speaker 3: small operation. We could take a few weeks, a few months,

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Speaker 3: who knows, and then will be out of there. It'll

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Speaker 3: be easy. Remember the General Westmoreland quote where he was like,

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Speaker 3: there's no scenario in nineteen sixty five where Marines will

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Speaker 3: be directly engaging with the Vietnamese.

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Speaker 1: How did that workout?

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Speaker 3: So that's the problem about how he out of control.

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Speaker 3: This entire situation really has gotten and I think you

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Speaker 3: now have to just turn and look to the horrible

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Speaker 3: options that Trump faces. And at this point, you know,

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Speaker 3: you and I kind of were hoping for this unilateral

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Speaker 3: taco Well unfortunately it just seems like his ego and

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Speaker 3: the United States just can't take it.

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Speaker 1: Right now.

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Speaker 3: There hasn't been enough pain exacted upon our population or

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Speaker 3: upon our system for the population to actually trant to

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Speaker 3: drive the president to really you have to accept a

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Speaker 3: historic defeat. So that's one He's not going to do that,

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Speaker 3: which is why they want to continue to bomb for

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Speaker 3: the next two to three weeks. Well, the longer that

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Speaker 3: that goes on, well you obviously have the same escalation

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Speaker 3: trap that Professor Pape has been on the show talking about.

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Speaker 3: And you see all of these military assets which just

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Speaker 3: continue to move into the region. Let's put a six

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Speaker 3: up there on the screen. Here's a good example. The

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Speaker 3: Pentagon is doubling the fleet of the A ten attack

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Speaker 3: planes in the Middle East. The famed Warthog, which of

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Speaker 3: course is used for what it's for, close air ground support. Right,

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Speaker 3: And this is something where I mean you could literally

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Speaker 3: go on YouTube. You can watch videos of this plane

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Speaker 3: in Afghanistan and in Iraq. I mean, it's pretty awesome

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Speaker 3: to watch. But it's not just a video game, right.

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Speaker 3: This is about potential invasion where you'd have to support.

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Speaker 3: So you'd have to have close air support to ground

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Speaker 3: troops which are engaged in combat with Iranian forces. You

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Speaker 3: also have all of these marines, the eighty second Airborne,

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Speaker 3: all of these Kakamamy schemes that are being drawn up,

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Speaker 3: like he is grasping at straws across the board for

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Speaker 3: how to get out of this, and the Iranians just

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Speaker 3: continue to say, no, no, no, we're not doing your seaspire.

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Speaker 1: We're not negotiating with you. Our terms are very clear.

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Speaker 3: They also are not in a position where they've felt

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Speaker 3: nearly enough pain, and so the logic from the White

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Speaker 3: House is what we have to.

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Speaker 1: Continue to make them feel pain.

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Speaker 3: One quote, which I don't even think we have necessarily

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Speaker 3: but I think is really important, is that did you

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Speaker 3: note that Donald Trump kept dropping that famous line We're

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Speaker 3: going to bomb them back to the Stone Ages, and

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Speaker 3: Pete Hegseth also tweeted it out actually last night, I

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Speaker 3: have it in front of me, and he says, back

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Speaker 3: to the Stone Age, right, and it's supposed to be

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Speaker 3: like this raw raw chest beating thing. Well, I let's

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Speaker 3: take a look at the history of that quote. That

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Speaker 3: quote was uttered by General Curtis LeMay in nineteen sixty.

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Speaker 1: Five about North Vietnam.

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Speaker 3: That quote was the logic for Rolling Thunder and Linebacker

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Speaker 3: two is all we have to do is bomb the

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Speaker 3: North Vietnamese into submission.

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Speaker 1: How did it work?

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Speaker 3: So it's like, you know, let's look at the history

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Speaker 3: of the back to the Stone Age logic, which is

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Speaker 3: that we can accomplish this entirely from the air, and

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Speaker 3: that we can compel the enemy to try to make

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Speaker 3: these concessions by just bombing so much of their critical infrastructure.

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Speaker 1: And maybe that would work if you.

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Speaker 3: Weren't dealing with the country which has underground missile cities

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Speaker 3: and drones and after a month is still able to

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Speaker 3: inflict a significant amount of damage on critical infrastructure in

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Speaker 3: the golf. And that's the problem is if we bomb

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Speaker 3: them back to the Stone Age, well, they're going to

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Speaker 3: try and get the golf as close to that as

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Speaker 3: possible as well. This is the core problem. If there's

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Speaker 3: an invasion and or so called stone Age style bombing,

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Speaker 3: well then the Strait will just be mined entirely. If

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Speaker 3: you try and knock out power plants or desalination, then

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Speaker 3: they're going to do the same to the golf. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I was looking apparently the Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 3: is a huge country, right Apparently their defense on the

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Speaker 3: desalination plants it's not very good, and they're already running

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Speaker 3: low on interceptors right from the United States and the

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Speaker 3: UAE and the golf Qatar, Bahrain. But these countries, it's

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Speaker 3: not like they're not very well hardened. A lot of

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Speaker 3: their infrastructure sites in the same way that Iran's desalination

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Speaker 3: plants and others aren't nearly as harted. Except Iranda is

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Speaker 3: not nearly as reliant on desalination as the golf countries.

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Speaker 3: We're talking about like less than two weeks worth of water.

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Speaker 3: So every action is going to have an equal and

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Speaker 3: opposite reaction here from a strategic level perspective, and I

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Speaker 3: just think that's so important to hammer home. It's like

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Speaker 3: it's look, everything that's old comes back around, back to

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Speaker 3: the Stone Age. Like I said, it was coined at

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Speaker 3: a time, you know, by the you know, the father

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Speaker 3: of the air campaign in World War Two, and there

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Speaker 3: was reason to believe why that might work at the time.

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Speaker 3: But now we have the evidence like it actually didn't work.

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Speaker 3: It was a titanic failure to so see it recycled

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Speaker 3: as some sort of chest beating thing. We have to

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Speaker 3: just take a step back and say, guys, this is

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Speaker 3: not gonna work. And that's why I just came out

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Speaker 3: that speech with despair. I'm like, the war can't end,

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Speaker 3: it can't continue either, And you're like, how do we

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Speaker 3: get out.

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Speaker 1: Of this one? I really don't know.

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Speaker 2: I mean that's what you get is really it feels

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Speaker 2: like Trump is well and truly lost.

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Speaker 4: And to your point.

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Speaker 2: About the back to the Stone Age, I mean, it's

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Speaker 2: just I mean, it's a disgusting thing to say to

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Speaker 2: begin with. So we'll start with the amorality or a

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Speaker 2: more of the way that he operates, the way Hegseth operates,

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Speaker 2: the way they brag about committing war crimes. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it truly is disgusting, and even if you have no

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Speaker 2: moral qualms with it, you see the way that enabling

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Speaker 2: that sort of you know, terroristic warfare that you know

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Speaker 2: also can apply to our adversaries. So you know, no

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Speaker 2: one is going to really have any moral credibility to

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Speaker 2: wag their fingers at Iran when they are also targeting

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Speaker 2: civilian infrastructure.

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Speaker 4: So there's that.

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Speaker 2: But I was thinking when I listened to that line,

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Speaker 2: I was thinking of what Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson talked to

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Speaker 2: us about that if he was in a wargame with

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Speaker 2: someone who was just like, yeah, I blew up a

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Speaker 2: lot of stuff, he'd be like, what is wrong with Okay?

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Speaker 4: Did you accomplish any of your objectives?

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Speaker 1: No, you didn't.

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Speaker 2: Just because you can blow up some stuff doesn't mean

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Speaker 2: that you're accomplishing any of the actual goals. Here, of course,

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Speaker 2: in this war, we don't even know what the actual

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Speaker 2: goals are. One of the goals was originally regime change.

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Speaker 2: Now we're being told, both in this speech last night,

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Speaker 2: that that was never one of the goals, even though

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Speaker 2: that was highly featured in the original announcement of this war.

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Speaker 2: We're also being told that it's already happened even though

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Speaker 2: you have literally, you know, another COMMANI in charge of

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Speaker 2: the state of Israel, so I mean the state of Iran.

439
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,320
Speaker 4: So this is just really wild the way that he

440
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:18,919
Speaker 4: approaches this.

441
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:23,120
Speaker 2: But you know, again, what's my big takeaway is he

442
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:25,240
Speaker 2: really is lost.

443
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:26,240
Speaker 4: He doesn't know what to do.

444
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 2: We're I'm about to play a sound bite he you know,

445
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,199
Speaker 2: in this leaked audio that was not supposed to come out,

446
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,680
Speaker 2: actually leaked video that was not supposed to be posted,

447
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 2: he admitted that he thought this would be over in

448
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 2: three days, and that was the reporting before that. He

449
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,720
Speaker 2: was telling our allies that in four days the whole

450
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 2: thing would be over, and when it wasn't, was like, okay,

451
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 2: what now. So maybe he wants to get out of

452
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 2: this thing, but he actually can't take the humiliation that

453
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 2: would be involved in just walking away with Iran having

454
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 2: scored a major, major strategic victory in terms of taking

455
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,120
Speaker 2: control of the Strait of Hormu, something he also talked

456
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 2: about in this speech, again going with this line of like, well,

457
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,200
Speaker 2: the people who you know, the people who really rely.

458
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 4: On it, they should come in. They should cherish it.

459
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 2: He said, they should come in and they should take

460
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 2: it over and we've done the hard part.

461
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:17,360
Speaker 4: So good luck to you all.

462
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 2: But in any case, you know, as evidence of how

463
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,239
Speaker 2: this is all just improvised and there really is no

464
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,360
Speaker 2: strategy and the goals here changed day to day. Let's

465
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 2: take a listen to a little bit of this leaked

466
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 2: video where he admits he thought it would be over

467
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:31,120
Speaker 2: in three days.

468
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 5: I said, you have too old, broken down aircraft carriage.

469
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 5: I think you could send them over. Oh, I'll have

470
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 5: to ask my team. I said, you're the Prime minister.

471
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 5: You don't have no, no, no, I have to ask

472
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 5: my team. President. My team has to meet. We're meeting

473
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 5: next week, next week, but the war already started next week.

474
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,439
Speaker 5: It's not good. The war's going to be over in

475
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,400
Speaker 5: three days my prediction. It turns out, by the way,

476
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,040
Speaker 5: do we have the greatest military.

477
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 2: Ever going to be over in three days? Well, guess what.

478
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 2: That didn't happen. And now he's saying it's going to

479
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 2: be over in two weeks. I don't think that's going

480
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 2: to happen either.

481
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:08,160
Speaker 4: Saga.

482
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 6: Yeah.

483
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 3: And actually, probably the most significant piece of video, and

484
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 3: just to explain, basically, this was a White House Easter lunch.

485
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 1: It was not open to the press.

486
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 3: Obviously, though the White House filmed the whole thing, they

487
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 3: accidentally updated uploaded the whole video to YouTube for maybe

488
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 3: only five minutes, but in that time enough people were

489
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,160
Speaker 3: able to download the film video and so they could

490
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 3: get some of the clips of the President talking at

491
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,199
Speaker 3: least somewhat came more candidly than he would necessarily. And

492
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 3: this one, you are going to see this everywhere. Here

493
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 3: is Donald Trump saying why we can't have daycare or

494
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 3: medicare or medicaid because the purpose of the government is

495
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 3: to fight war. That's about as unpopular and as opposite

496
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,440
Speaker 3: to his original message and his campaigns as you could

497
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:54,120
Speaker 3: possibly get.

498
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

499
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 5: Because the United States can't take care of daycare. That

500
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 5: has to be up to state. We can't take care

501
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 5: of daycare. We're a big country, we have fifty states,

502
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 5: we have all these other people who are fighting wars.

503
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,120
Speaker 5: We can't take care of daycare. You got to let

504
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 5: a state take care of daycare. And they should pay

505
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 5: for it too. They should pay They have to raise

506
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 5: their taxes, but they should pay for it. And we

507
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 5: could lower our taxes a little bit to them to

508
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 5: make up. But it's not possible for us to take

509
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 5: care of daycare, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things. They

510
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,119
Speaker 5: can do it on the state basis, you can't do

511
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 5: it in a federal We have to take care of

512
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 5: one thing, military protection.

513
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 3: We have to take care of one thing military protection.

514
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,400
Speaker 3: So basically, we can't do medicare, we can't do medicaid,

515
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 3: we can't do childcare, we can't do child tax credits

516
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,439
Speaker 3: because we have to fight an unpopular war of twenty

517
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:50,119
Speaker 3: six percent. And not even George W. Bush would Dane

518
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:54,199
Speaker 3: to say something like that. So, yeah, that's coming to

519
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 3: a midterm ad near you.

520
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: Can you imagine what if you're a voter.

521
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 3: And again, most motors, again, they really have no idea

522
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 3: that's going on. I know that's crazy to people who

523
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 3: watch this show, but I'm telling you the vast majority

524
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 3: of people, to the extent they know that there's a problem.

525
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 3: It's that there's four dollars gasoline. I've compared it to COVID.

526
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:16,160
Speaker 3: They think it'll resolve relatively quickly. They're not reading quotes

527
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,479
Speaker 3: and looking at jet fuels, crack spreads and all this

528
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 3: other stuff. They're just living their lives and there's nothing

529
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 3: wrong with that, But when they see something like that,

530
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 3: when they're still paying four dollars a gallon a month

531
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 3: from now, or four point fifty or five dollars a

532
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 3: gallon in the future, which is not out of the

533
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 3: question considering where oil continues to trade and the closure

534
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,439
Speaker 3: of the straits of horror moves. Yeah, good luck to

535
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 3: anybody who tries to bolster that one in the midterms.

536
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 6: Yeah.

537
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 4: I was just looking today.

538
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 2: It's four eight is the national average gas price. So

539
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 2: every day we're taking up and up, we are going

540
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 2: to hit all time highs. I think here very shortly.

541
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 2: And you know, it also reminds me as I hear

542
00:25:56,240 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 2: Trump talking about, Ah, we can't afford childcare or Medicare dedicade. Sorry,

543
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 2: because we got to spend on all these wars of

544
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 2: choice that I'm starting. We got to pay for the

545
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:10,240
Speaker 2: one point five trillion dollar defense budget that he's requesting.

546
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,359
Speaker 2: We got to pay for the two hundred billion dollar

547
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 2: supplemental that he wants just for this particular quote unquote excursion. Sorry,

548
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 2: we can't do anything to help you out. I was

549
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 2: also thinking about all these quotes from Pete Hegsath and

550
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,399
Speaker 2: others who are like Iran is such a terrorist state

551
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,400
Speaker 2: because instead of spending their money on their people, they

552
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,360
Speaker 2: choose to spend it on all these missiles and all

553
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 2: this military technology. It's like, Iran's military budget per year

554
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 2: is roughly.

555
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 4: Ten billion dollars.

556
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 2: Ten Okay, we are looking to spend two hundred billion

557
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 2: just on this one frickin thing. But to hear Trump

558
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:53,680
Speaker 2: outright say we are trading your healthcare for this wildly unpopular,

559
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 2: illegal war of choice is one of the most shocking

560
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:02,400
Speaker 2: admissions in American life that you could possibly imagine. Of course,

561
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 2: we all know that that is the case, but to

562
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 2: hear the President of the United States just out and

563
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 2: out admit that that's the way he thinks about it too,

564
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 2: is wild. And we know, soccer, we're talking the other

565
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:14,919
Speaker 2: day about how, you know, to pay for this two

566
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 2: hundred billion dollars in supplemental funding.

567
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 4: What are they looking at? Healthcare? Healthcare?

568
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 2: They're looking at, you know, maybe it's Medicare advantage that

569
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 2: they'll figure out some way to cut to the bone.

570
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 2: They're going to take away services from Americans who rely

571
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,400
Speaker 2: on those services in order to you know, drop more

572
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 2: bombs on little girls' schools and athletic complexes and bomb

573
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 2: them back to the Stone Age. So this is the

574
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 2: choice that the President of the United States has made

575
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 2: him and him alone. There was no precipitating event, all

576
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 2: of the stuff of all they were pursuing a bomb,

577
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:52,879
Speaker 2: total and complete lies. There was a very generous deal

578
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 2: on the table, according to you know, the Omanis who

579
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,439
Speaker 2: were involved in this, a very generous deal on the table,

580
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 2: and instead he chose to send your healthcare away in

581
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 2: the form of you know, bombs and war crimes.

582
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, I was thinking too. I was

583
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 3: in a reflective mood with Artemis two. Congratulations by the

584
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 3: way to the crew. Artemis two is a redux of

585
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 3: Apollo eight. So Apollo eight was the lap around the Moon,

586
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 3: and a lot of people may forget Apollo eight happened

587
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 3: in nineteen sixty eight, literally at the height of the

588
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 3: Vietnam War, and I was like, wow, I mean, exactly

589
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 3: fifty eight years later, we're going back to the Moon

590
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 3: for a moon lap, except this time we're just doing

591
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 3: what we've already done again.

592
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 1: And then at the height you know.

593
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 3: A nineteen sixty eight it was one of the only

594
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 3: bright spots of nineteen sixty eight, and then I was thinking,

595
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 3: you know, obviously I'm a huge fan of space exploration.

596
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: I want to see more things like that.

597
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 3: What ultimately killed the Apollo program and a space exploration

598
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 3: at large, it was basically the unpopular war in Vietnam

599
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 3: and this notion that we were going abroad with Vietnam

600
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 3: and we were spiking our own inflation and we ruined

601
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 3: our own economy with interest rates, and that we didn't

602
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 3: focus enough here at home. And it's like, it seems

603
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:09,480
Speaker 3: genuinely like so much continues to rhyme with that time.

604
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 3: Like I remember reading about the Apollo program at the

605
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 3: time and how unpopular at least somewhat it eventually became

606
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 3: in the nineteen seventies why they ended up cutting many

607
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 3: of those missions, and it was exactly because of sentiments

608
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 3: like this. Now, I'm of the belief that we can

609
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 3: do all of the above, but one of the things

610
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 3: that we shouldn't be doing is unpopular crazy wars of

611
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 3: choice which spiked the global energy or spike global energy markets,

612
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 3: turn the world and all of that against us. We

613
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 3: could have the better parts, like you know, healthcare and

614
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 3: all these other things, and the Apollo program or the

615
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 3: Artemis program. But we don't have to have this part,

616
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 3: and this part is really what sours and drains all

617
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 3: of the resources runy, of the cool and the good

618
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 3: things that we could actually do. It's really sad, actually

619
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 3: to see such an incredible feat of engineering and of

620
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 3: humanity happen at the very same time to watch the

621
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 3: same exact playbook runback, which is what cost us a

622
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 3: lot of that future in the first place. Spot all right,

623
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 3: I mean, I guess that's what we've been destined to repeat.

624
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 2: Well, and one last point on that, just to continue

625
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 2: on your reflective journey, is you know, I mean this

626
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 2: administration has wildly cut the budget for any sort of

627
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 2: scientific endeavors. I mean, it's almost undoubtedly the case that China,

628
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 2: which continues to invest a lot, a lot in research, technology, value, scientists, etc.

629
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 2: Is going to you know, leap frogus in terms of

630
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 2: this sort of technology and all sorts of technological frontier developments. So,

631
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 2: you know, yet another choice made by this administration.

632
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 1: Sad. All right, we got treat to party standing by.

633
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 3: He's going to break down the Iranian response some of

634
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 3: Donald Trump' speech. A new letter released by the President

635
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 3: of Iran, God bless him, thinking that any of us

636
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 3: are going to read one thousand words. But Treata will

637
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 3: do his best still to break it all down. So

638
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 3: let's get to it.

639
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 2: Joining us now is doctor treat To Parsi is the

640
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 2: executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

641
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 1: Great to see you, Sarah, Good to see you, Good

642
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 1: to be with you, guys.

643
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 4: So Treata.

644
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 2: First off, just your reaction to whatever that speech was

645
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 2: last night from the President?

646
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 5: Yeah?

647
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 4: Well was that?

648
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 6: I mean? Really?

649
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 1: To me?

650
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 6: It sounded like a summary of his social media tweets

651
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 6: and posts for the last thirty days, put kind of

652
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 6: in chronological order. I did not see anything new, threats

653
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 6: that he has issued before and not acted upon, you know,

654
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 6: statements of why the Iranians are so bad in a

655
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 6: rather confused way, nothing coherent whatsoever. I do not understand

656
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 6: why he said that he wanted to give a speech.

657
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 6: If the aim was to do a more aggressive intervention

658
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 6: in the markets, you know, his previous interventions have been

659
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 6: successful the market, you know, the old prices should be

660
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 6: much higher than they are. But if the aim was that,

661
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 6: you know, he needed to do something more aggressive because

662
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 6: you know, his other interventions are starting to lose force.

663
00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 6: It achieved the opposite because essentially what people took away

664
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 6: from that is that he does not have a plan.

665
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 6: He didn't say anything new, and that's reflective of the

666
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 6: fact that he doesn't have anything to say. He doesn't

667
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 6: have a plan, and that led the markets to all

668
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 6: prices shut up again because the expectation that he himself

669
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 6: had said was that this would be a statement, a

670
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 6: speech in which he would talk about a winding down

671
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 6: of the war, and that is not what people took

672
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 6: away from that speech.

673
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it's very clear from the reaction. Oil

674
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 3: markets up some thirteen percent as you and I are speaking. However,

675
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 3: what's also important, I think to say is this was

676
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 3: obviously intended to Iran, and shortly before Donald Trump's speech,

677
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 3: Iran released this letter to America. Let's go ahead and

678
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 3: put some of the excerpts up here on the screen.

679
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 1: I'm sure you've read it all fully.

680
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 3: I'm curious if you could break it down what import

681
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 3: the letter actually has in their intention?

682
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 1: What do you take away from it?

683
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 6: The Iranians are expected Trump to go in with the

684
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 6: ground troops. They believe that this was a speech aimed

685
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 6: at confusing everyone about his actual intent, but because of

686
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 6: the Easter holiday and a couple of days in which

687
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 6: the markets will be closed, they believe that he is

688
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 6: likely to attack this evening or tomorrow, and that essentially

689
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 6: everything that Trump does Ivani is interpreted in the worst

690
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:29,719
Speaker 6: possible way. That is partly because of long term paranoia,

691
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 6: but also because of recent experience, given everything that Trump

692
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 6: has done in terms of bombing them in the midst

693
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 6: of negotiations. So I think these statements are two sides

694
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 6: of the same coin. On the one hand, you have

695
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 6: the President coming out essentially declaring they have no enmity

696
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 6: with the American people. This is a long standing framing

697
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 6: that they have. They want to put the blame on

698
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 6: this on Israel and essentially say, why is the US

699
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 6: attacking Ivon. There's no enmity that necessitates this type of conflict.

700
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 6: This is all because of Israel. On the other hand,

701
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 6: you have Colibov, the Speaker of the Parliament, who's now

702
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 6: emerged as one of the last standing most powerful men

703
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 6: in that system, who issued a long tweet this morning

704
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,760
Speaker 6: in which he talked about how he lost his brother

705
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 6: in the Iraq Iran war. He himself volunteered at the

706
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 6: age of eighteen in that war, and that you know,

707
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 6: these are losses that he still feels today. But this

708
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 6: is the type of sacrifices Devanians will make for their soil,

709
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 6: for their homeland, and that they are ready. And he

710
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 6: ends it with saying bring it on. So they're sending

711
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 6: two messages. On the one hand, they don't want any enemity.

712
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 6: They don't understand why the US is doing this. They

713
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:44,879
Speaker 6: believe it's because of Israel. But on the other hand,

714
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,919
Speaker 6: if the US goes in with troops, the Iranians will

715
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 6: fight to the last ounce of their being.

716
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 2: You mentioned there are repeated tactic of using negotiations as

717
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:02,359
Speaker 2: a ruse to begin wars to assassinate various leaders. We've

718
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 2: got another attempted example of Valcan put before up on

719
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 2: the screen here and I'm curious for your reaction to

720
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 2: this news. So Kamal Karatzi, Iran's former foreign minister, has

721
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 2: been seriously wounded following US Israeli strikes in his home

722
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 2: that also killed his wife. He'd been overseeing talks with

723
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 2: Pakistan to arrange a possible meeting between Iranian officials and

724
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 2: JD Vance First of all, do you suspect that this

725
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 2: was Israel that conducted this attempted assassination? And then what

726
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,720
Speaker 2: do you think is the significance of this particular attack.

727
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 6: I think it's quite certain that it is Israel that

728
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 6: is behind is just as much as Israel has been

729
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 6: behind most of these other assassinations. Perhaps there's intelligence that

730
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 6: they get from the United States, but they're the ones

731
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 6: who have been conducting these assassinations. This is someone who

732
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 6: was involved in these talks. I don't know if he

733
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 6: was leading it or not, but he is an old

734
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 6: policy hand. Even two three years ago he gave a

735
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 6: speech at the Duha Forum. He was essentially sent there

736
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 6: as an envoy of the then Supreme Leader Khamena. He

737
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 6: served as Iran's four minister for many, many years, and

738
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 6: within that system, these former officials still tend to play

739
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 6: a critical role, and given the fact that so many

740
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,720
Speaker 6: of them have been assassinated, it means that the remaining

741
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 6: ones end up playing in even greater role. So it

742
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 6: wouldn't surprise me at all that he has been deeply involved,

743
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,360
Speaker 6: whether he was overseeing it or not, but deeply involved

744
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:37,240
Speaker 6: in this channel initiated by some regional states and currently

745
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 6: led by Pakistan. The fact that these Raelis would target

746
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 6: him is just a continuation of a long standing pattern

747
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 6: in which the Israelis are trying to kill every person

748
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 6: that potentially not only could negotiate, but also could bring

749
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 6: the Iranian system into a consensus on a deal. It's

750
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 6: very important to understand this point. This is a very

751
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 6: diverse They have factions, a lot of infighting, etc. It's

752
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 6: not just about having someone who has the capability of negotiating,

753
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:09,359
Speaker 6: who has the endorsement of the Supreme Leader, but also

754
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:13,399
Speaker 6: someone who can build consensus within that system in order

755
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:15,959
Speaker 6: to go along with in agreement. So when they killed

756
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,399
Speaker 6: Alinarijani last week or so, that was someone who played

757
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 6: a critical role in getting Conservatives to agree to the

758
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:26,279
Speaker 6: JCPA eleven years ago, and he had that ability. He

759
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:30,800
Speaker 6: was essentially the consensus maker in chief. Going after Karazi

760
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 6: is just a continuation of that pattern. And it's very

761
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 6: interesting because Trump himself said, when he was asked who

762
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 6: will you negotiate with? He said, perhaps I shouldn't say

763
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:42,280
Speaker 6: it because they might get killed, revealing that he himself

764
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 6: seems to understand that the Israelis are killing off his

765
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 6: counterparts in order to make sure that this war does

766
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 6: not end.

767
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 3: You know, I'm just thinking through how exactly some sort

768
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:55,760
Speaker 3: of deal could be made, and it seems very clear,

769
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 3: like you said, that you need a consensus maker with

770
00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 3: credibility who can speak to the West US, who could

771
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 3: speak with some of the hard liners. It seems that

772
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 3: we made the job actually much harder because we've killed

773
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 3: many of the CONSISTUS makers and or Israel has and

774
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 3: we also killed the iatola, really strengthening in the hands

775
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 3: of a lot of these hard liners at this point,

776
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:16,439
Speaker 3: what do you think they could accept because or would

777
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 3: accept really, because it seems very clear from many of

778
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,839
Speaker 3: the demands, their most maximus demands, it's not really going

779
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:25,760
Speaker 3: to happen. Some are seeing that as a negotiation tactic.

780
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 3: Are they being serious about that? Like, where do they

781
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:31,800
Speaker 3: view themselves internally to the point where they could actually

782
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 3: want to make a deal.

783
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 6: I think something very significant has happened, which is that

784
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 6: the US's position, acceptance, et cetera may no longer matter.

785
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 6: And this is thanks to Trump's own statements. Trump is

786
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 6: saying that, you know, the strait up hormos is not

787
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 6: that important to the US. It's feeding European and nation markets,

788
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 6: not American markets. So you know, we don't care about that.

789
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 6: If you want to open it, you open it. By

790
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 6: saying something like that, perhaps he thinks that he's taking

791
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 6: Iran's leverage away from Iran, because Iranians are obviously controlling it,

792
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 6: and originally, at least I think they were aimed at

793
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 6: using it as a point of leverage in a negotiation

794
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 6: with the US. At this point, it seems like they're

795
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 6: moving ahead regardless of what the US position is. The

796
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 6: US simply cannot do much about this, and they're going

797
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 6: to be using their control. They're not going to keep

798
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 6: it closed. They're opening it, but they're opening it visa

799
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 6: the fees that they will get for transit, and they

800
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 6: may keep it close for some hostile countries, but they're

801
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 6: essentially looking at the control of the Strait of Hormuz,

802
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 6: eventually in a collaboration with Oman, which probably will have

803
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:44,600
Speaker 6: a grounding international law. You have several examples of this

804
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 6: in some variations. The Danish have for four hundred years

805
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 6: taken transit fees for ships going through Urusund. They're opening

806
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 6: to the Baltic Sea, and that they will use that

807
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:01,320
Speaker 6: in order to recuperate money for all of the damages

808
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 6: that have been inflicted on Iran as a result of

809
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 6: this war. So as these damages increase, it's not that

810
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 6: the Iranians are hardening their position necessarily, It's that they

811
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 6: have no choice but to try to find other ways

812
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 6: of being able to compensate and pay for the massive

813
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 6: cost of reconstruction that will follow this war that increasingly

814
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 6: is taking an Israeli character. And I think this is

815
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 6: very important to understand. I've been very critical of the

816
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 6: Iraq War, but the United States did not deliberately intentionally

817
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 6: bomb universities or pharmaceutical factories in Iraq. That's what the

818
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 6: Israelis do in Lebanon, That's what they have done in Gaza,

819
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 6: destroyed almost every university there, and that is what they're

820
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 6: starting to do in Iran as well. Just today they

821
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 6: bombed a very important pharmaceut or medical research institute that

822
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 6: was built together with the French ward and one hundred

823
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 6: years ago. And the United States is now complicit in

824
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:03,320
Speaker 6: this Israeli form of warfare that is actually very different

825
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 6: from how the US is conducted war. Again, you know,

826
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 6: I'm very critical of the Iraq War and other things.

827
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:10,440
Speaker 6: But this is just way beyond that. This is just

828
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 6: an absolute destruction. And again, because Trump doesn't appear to

829
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 6: have a plan, by default, he has following the Israeli's lead.

830
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 6: And this is also what we see when he says

831
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 6: that he's going to bomb the Iranians back to the

832
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 6: Stone Age. That is an Israeli goal. They don't care

833
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 6: about the political fallout. They just want to destroy as

834
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 6: much of Ivan's infrastructure industrial base as possible in order

835
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 6: to eliminate Iran as a geopolitical player in the region.

836
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,920
Speaker 6: What comes afterwards, what it does for the regional stability,

837
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 6: is of a far lesser concern to these radis. That

838
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 6: is not the American goals or interest in this war.

839
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 6: But because Trump doesn't have a plan, he's just following

840
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 6: what these Radis were.

841
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think, in fairness, the ideology of

842
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth in particular, but Trump to some extent as well,

843
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 2: is very consistent with that Israeli ideology. I mean, one

844
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 2: of the things Pete Hegseth is known for is going

845
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,880
Speaker 2: to bat with for convicted war criminals and trying to

846
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:06,759
Speaker 2: get them off the hook, and posturing constantly like any

847
00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 2: sort of rules of engagement are basically like liberal woke nonsense.

848
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 2: So you know, Steven Miller articulated this view, I think

849
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:16,280
Speaker 2: most clearly when he said effectively like power is power,

850
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:18,319
Speaker 2: that's what really rules the world, and that's the way

851
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 2: we're going to operate. We're going to throw our weight around,

852
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:23,520
Speaker 2: and certainly Trump, as sort of like his mob boss

853
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 2: style of leadership, he goes along with that too. So

854
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 2: you know, we already were complicit in the genocide in

855
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 2: Gaza throughout the Biden and Trump administrations, and now you know,

856
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 2: we're more than happy to go along with the Israeli

857
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 2: approach of quote unquote bombing them back to the Stone Age.

858
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 2: And so that leads me to wonder, treat to if

859
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 2: what we're going to end up with here is adopting

860
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:49,920
Speaker 2: effectively the Israeli quote unquote mow the lawn approach, where

861
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 2: every now and again we go in and bomb them

862
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 2: back to the Stone Age and make some noises about, oh,

863
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 2: they're pursuing this weapon, and they're pursuing that weapon. We

864
00:42:57,280 --> 00:42:59,319
Speaker 2: can't allow. We've got to go in and you know,

865
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 2: kill a bunch more people. Is that the direction that

866
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 2: we could be heading for here absolutely.

867
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 6: First of all, you're totally right about your previous comment

868
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:12,760
Speaker 6: that the Israelization of American warfare could not happen without

869
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,840
Speaker 6: the consent of decision makers in the United States, and

870
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 6: those decision makers already have shown prior to this an

871
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:22,839
Speaker 6: inclination and going in that direction. And I've also heard

872
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 6: even before during the Gods of What that there were

873
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:28,240
Speaker 6: people in the Pentagon that were rather happy to see

874
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 6: the Israelis deliberately destroy the norms around the use of

875
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 6: force because that would open up the US's ability to

876
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 6: conduct the potential war with China in a much different

877
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:43,800
Speaker 6: way than the otherwise would. So undoubtedly there are people

878
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 6: in Washington who have been quite favorable in going in

879
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 6: this direction in the first place. So you're right about that.

880
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 6: On your second point, Trump has already admitted this. He

881
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 6: said that in interviews two days ago that he's going

882
00:43:57,120 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 6: to bomb them back to the Stone Age, and then

883
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 6: if they read, the next president will have to go

884
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 6: in and bomb them again. That is mowing the law.

885
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 6: That is the very essence of mowing the law. And

886
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 6: this is precisely why previous presidents actually didn't do it,

887
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 6: because all of the gaming show that this is the

888
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:18,800
Speaker 6: situation we would end up in and as a result,

889
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 6: we would be in a state of eternal warfare with Iran,

890
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 6: which is something everyone else, including Trump in his first term,

891
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:29,360
Speaker 6: decided would be a terrible situation to be in. Now,

892
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,360
Speaker 6: not only are we there, Trump seems to be embracing

893
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 6: it as if this is what he wanted all along.

894
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 3: So then last question, sir, you said the Iranians are

895
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 3: expecting a ground invasion.

896
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:40,319
Speaker 1: How likely do you think that that is.

897
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:46,239
Speaker 6: Look, it's impossible to be able to predict what's going

898
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:52,800
Speaker 6: to happen because predictions require some sense of some assumption

899
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 6: of rationality in the White House. And then based on

900
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 6: our rationality, you make some sort of an assumption, here's

901
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 6: an assessment of what direction that would go in. If

902
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:03,839
Speaker 6: there was rationality, we would never have started this war

903
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,399
Speaker 6: in the first place. It's not just a miscalculation, it's

904
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:09,399
Speaker 6: a complete misread of the situation that brought Trump into

905
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 6: this war and listening to these ratings, So at this point,

906
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:16,400
Speaker 6: would it be utterly irrational, suicidal to go in with

907
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:20,799
Speaker 6: ground troops societally in terms of destroying Trump's presidency? Absolutely?

908
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:22,800
Speaker 6: Is that a reason as to why he wouldn't do

909
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 6: it based on what we've seen in the last couple

910
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 6: of years. Is absolutely not a guarantee that he won't

911
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 6: do it. Vannians are essentially assuming that's going to happen.

912
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 6: They're preparing for this, and they will be in a

913
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:36,279
Speaker 6: position in which they will then be able to They

914
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:39,400
Speaker 6: will take huge losses. Undoubtedly much more will be destroyed,

915
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 6: but they will be able to inflict a certain type

916
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 6: of damage that so far they have not been successful

917
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:46,719
Speaker 6: in doing, which is to kill a large number of

918
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 6: American soldiers. And once that happens, it will be very

919
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:53,400
Speaker 6: difficult for me to see that Trump's space. Will continue

920
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 6: to trust Trump on this one, continue to believe that

921
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 6: this was worthwhile, continue to believe that this is a

922
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 6: winning war. And that's part of the reason I think

923
00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:02,879
Speaker 6: he will destroy his own presidency if he goes down

924
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:05,799
Speaker 6: that path. That, however, is not a guarantee that he won't.

925
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:08,240
Speaker 2: All right, Well, doctor Tree to Parsi, You're always grateful

926
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 2: for your analysis. Thank you so much for joining us

927
00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 2: this morning.