1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,320 Speaker 1: Hey, guys, thanks for listening to Breaking Points with Crystal 2 00:00:02,320 --> 00:00:04,240 Speaker 1: and Sager. We're going to be totally upfront with you. 3 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: We took a big risk going independent to make this work. 4 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:11,880 Speaker 1: We need your support to beat the corporate media CNN, Fox, MSNBC. 5 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 1: They are ripping this country apart. They are making millions 6 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: of dollars doing it to help support our mission of 7 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: making all of us hate each other, less hate the 8 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: corrupt ruling class more support the show. 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We have an amazing show for everybody today 19 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 1: when we have Crystal. Indeed, we do big stock market 20 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 1: drop yesterday that a famous graph of rich people's feelings 21 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 1: was down. We're going to dig into what exactly is 22 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: going on there. Actually very interesting story about the real 23 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 1: estate market in China and whether they may be facing 24 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: their Lehman Brothers moment right now. So we'll talk about 25 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,040 Speaker 1: all of that. I did a superper dive into all 26 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 1: of this yesterday. I wouldn't go that far, but I 27 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,040 Speaker 1: did learn a lot. There is a debt ceiling crisis 28 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 1: that is headed our way imminently. We'll talk about what 29 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: is happening there. San Francisco Mayor London breed with some 30 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 1: incredible comments trying to defend herself after being caught maskless 31 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 1: partying at a nightclub in violation of her own public 32 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 1: health order. Very awkward situation, very reminiscent of Gavin Newsom 33 00:01:56,520 --> 00:02:00,919 Speaker 1: French laundry vibes. There new study that's very disturbing about 34 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 1: how much childhood obesity ticked up during the pandemic and 35 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 1: what is going on there. We've got David Serot on 36 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 1: as well to break down what exactly is going on 37 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:13,360 Speaker 1: with that big Democratic reconciliation bill. Really seems to be 38 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 1: in big trouble right now. Frankly, it's hard for me 39 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 1: to see how they get either the reconciliation bill or 40 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 1: the bipartisan infrastructure bill done at this point. But David 41 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: is kind of expert in knowing all the nuances of 42 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 1: how these things actually move through Congress. But we wanted 43 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: to start with a big announcement yesterday regarding the Supreme 44 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: Court and Row versus Wade. Yeah. Christ, well, you and 45 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 1: I were just talking about this. I think a lot 46 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 1: of the professional kind of intelligencia and newspeople are overlooking 47 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 1: what could be probably one of the most significant political 48 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 1: events of our entire lifetime. So let's put this up 49 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 1: there on the screen. The Supreme Court yesterday set a 50 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: date for oral arguments in the Mississippi abortion case December one, 51 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. So this is very important because, as 52 00:02:55,880 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 1: Kate notes, there specifically many past abortion laws that we 53 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: have seen to try and test the conservative court quote 54 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 1: unquote have been kind of like what we see in 55 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 1: Texas six week so called heartbeat bill, same thing down 56 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: in Alabama. The Mississippi case was incredibly important on this 57 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 1: ground because the brief specifically says we want you to 58 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 1: overturn Roe versus Weight. There was no six week, There 59 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 1: was no like instituting some sort of regulations which make 60 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 1: it so there's only like four abortion clinics or whatever 61 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 1: in the state. It was straight up, we want you 62 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:33,079 Speaker 1: to overturn the pass Court decision. So that is actually 63 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 1: one of the most significant things that the Court has 64 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 1: taken in quite a long time, because it gives us 65 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 1: some insight into the fact that they are willing to 66 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 1: hear and finally decide either one way or the other. Now, look, 67 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 1: we've got six y three right now currently on the 68 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: Supreme Court. Many people who I've spoken to in the 69 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 1: conservative legal movement are both. I mean, you know, they're 70 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: the ones who are happy about it, But I asked 71 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: them for dispassionate analysis. I said, okay, so what does 72 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: this mean. I mean, previously, what I'd heard was, well, 73 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 1: you know, they have a ten year project to try 74 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 1: and overturn Row versus way they like. They'll change casey, 75 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 1: they'll change the way the regulations. But the fact that 76 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: Mississippi kind of teed it up for them in such 77 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: a specific way and that the Court was willing to 78 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 1: accept it, this signals that they'd be willing to do it. 79 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: And here's why I think it matters more than anything. 80 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 1: So the first people that I spoke to said that 81 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:27,480 Speaker 1: in fall or summer of twenty twenty two is when, 82 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 1: because they're hearing the course in the arguments in December, 83 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 1: fall or summer is when the actual ruling on it 84 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 1: would come. Now, you may know, November of twenty twenty 85 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 1: two is the election. So there we go. We've got 86 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 1: November twenty twenty two and potentially bombshell decision that could 87 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:51,720 Speaker 1: come which would completely, in my opinion, reshape American politics. 88 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 1: You could almost throw everything currently in the discourse out 89 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: the window except for COVID, and that's what the entire 90 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:03,159 Speaker 1: election could be about. Yes, it is a very highly 91 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:11,280 Speaker 1: significant development. Abortion pro and anti organizing has been a 92 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:16,039 Speaker 1: centerpiece and a focal point of American politics. Obviously for 93 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:20,159 Speaker 1: decades now. It's been a huge motivator for the right. 94 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 1: I mean, even you think about Donald Trump's election back 95 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:26,600 Speaker 1: when now evangelicals are the strongest base, but back when 96 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 1: there was some squeamishnists about him and his personal conduct 97 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:32,720 Speaker 1: and how's this all going to work out? When he 98 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: released that list of Supreme Court justices with the implicit 99 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:39,719 Speaker 1: promise of these are the people who were actually going 100 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 1: to get it done, what's been on your wishless now 101 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: for decades. That was what really gave them confidence. Of course, 102 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:47,479 Speaker 1: Mike Pence on the ticket helped to add to that 103 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:51,679 Speaker 1: confidence there they end up staying sticking with him even 104 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 1: after the Grama by the p word comments, etc. Come 105 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 1: out big part of motivating the conservative base for years 106 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 1: and years and years. So in some ways, if they 107 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:07,279 Speaker 1: actually get Roe versus Wad overturn, it's going to take 108 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 1: some of the energy out of that movement because they've 109 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 1: been questing after this time and time again. Now, as 110 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 1: far as the Mississippi law goes, you're correct in saying 111 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 1: this was essentially crafted to force the Supreme Court to 112 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: actually make a decision on Roe versus Weight. Why is 113 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 1: it so directly a challenge for Roe versus Weight. Well, 114 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:31,359 Speaker 1: part of the law undergirding, or the idea undergirding ro 115 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: versus Weight, is this idea that abortion rights are guaranteed 116 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: until fetal viability. Mississippi directly goes after that piece with 117 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 1: a fifteen week ban that is very clearless now borderline, 118 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: that's very clearly before fetal viability, and that's why it 119 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 1: forces the Supreme Court into what is effectively a tough 120 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,479 Speaker 1: position here because I think the justices have been very 121 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 1: leary of actually fully overturning roll versus weight. And we 122 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: should be clear because it has long been the case 123 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: that conservative states have been able to effectively ban abortion 124 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 1: through all of these regulations and restrictions and infringement, so 125 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: that you have states that have one or potentially zero 126 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 1: abortion clinics even operating in the state that's been sort 127 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: of a comfortable space for them to operate in. Now 128 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 1: conservative activists are saying, no, no, we want the real deal. 129 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: We want Roe actually gone. And so that sets up 130 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 1: where we are now with these justices having their hand 131 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 1: essentially forced to actually make a decision on something conservative 132 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 1: activists have wanted for a long time, and something that 133 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: we should also say is wildly out of step with 134 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 1: the American public. You know, I was just looking at 135 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 1: the recent polling. There's I think we have a Monmouth 136 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: University poll we can put up. Some of this is 137 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 1: with regards to the Texas law that was just passed, 138 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 1: which had really weird provisions in it. There's essentially like 139 00:07:56,040 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: a bounty provision. It's not state lawmaker or regulators who 140 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: are in charge of enforcing this Texas law. It's private 141 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 1: individual citizens who can receive a ten thousand dollars bounty 142 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 1: if they turn in someone who conducted an abortion and 143 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 1: violation of the law. That, of course, like even Republicans 144 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: thought that that was strange and not necessarily a good thing. 145 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 1: But if you look over all, what this poll reveals 146 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: is that six and ten Americans say that abortion should 147 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: be either always legal or legal with some limitations. Another 148 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:33,079 Speaker 1: twenty four percent say it should be illegal except for rape, incest, 149 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: or to save the mother's life. Those provisions those exceptions 150 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 1: are not present in the Texas law. Only eleven percent 151 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: say it should always be illegal, So that eleven percent 152 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 1: of the population is effectively who Republicans, conservative activists, and 153 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: potentially the Supreme Court are going to ultimately side with 154 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: my view on abortion rights. From a political perspective, and 155 00:08:57,400 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 1: you and I have very different views about what is 156 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 1: moral and what is just and what should be the policy. 157 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 1: But from a political perspective, whoever is seen as more 158 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:08,599 Speaker 1: extreme on the issue is the party that's going to 159 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 1: lose out on it. Republicans and potentially the Supreme Court 160 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 1: is putting Republicans in the place of taking a very 161 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 1: extreme position on abortion that is out of step with 162 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 1: where the American population is. And this is something that 163 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 1: many socially conservative people don't want to hear, but it's 164 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,079 Speaker 1: absolutely true. It's like, if you look at the politics 165 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: of it, whenever you see like Ralph Northam or whatever 166 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 1: advocating abortion up until like third trimester, then you're going 167 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:33,959 Speaker 1: to lose. And whenever it's on the other side, that's 168 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 1: also incredibly unpopular. And the reason we're putting the polling 169 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 1: there is because, as we have seen, if this becomes 170 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 1: the litmus test issue, this could actually be one of 171 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 1: the things that could stop any prediction of a big 172 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 1: GOP wave in the November elections, because then, like I said, 173 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 1: it will be a referendum both on COVID but also 174 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 1: on how you feel about Roe versus WID. Every single 175 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 1: Republican politician will have to say they agree or don't 176 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:04,199 Speaker 1: agree with the with the decision, the same thing vice 177 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:06,960 Speaker 1: versa whenever it comes to the Democrats. And I don't 178 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 1: think there is a denying that the Democrats generally have 179 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 1: the public opinion in a post Row environment when many 180 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 1: Southern states will make abortion explicitly illegal, and just to 181 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 1: give you a preview. You actually pointed this out. Let's 182 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:24,319 Speaker 1: put this up there from the Gavin Newsome recall. So look, 183 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 1: obviously California is a very liberal state. But one of 184 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 1: the things that he consistently hammered against Larry Elder was 185 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: not only opposition to minimum wage, but is actually about 186 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 1: the wake of the Texas abortion case and talking specifically 187 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 1: there about being pro choice. So that one's very important. 188 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: You guys might remember this when Marshall was sitting in 189 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: I brought you this column from Matthew Continetti over at 190 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,079 Speaker 1: the Free Beacon. Let's actually put it up there on 191 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 1: the screen. One of the things he points to is 192 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 1: that back in the twenty twelve election, when Todd Aiken 193 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: was asked, you know, made the whole legitimate rape comment, 194 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 1: it became not only the death knell for Todd Akins's 195 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 1: own campaign, but actually spiraled into something that almost every 196 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 1: Republican in the country was then have to be asked about. 197 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 1: And so what he's pointing to here is he's like, look, 198 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 1: there's Afghanistan, there's the COVID lockdowns, you're seeing, you know, 199 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: Glenn Youngkin is tied. He's like, abortion is almost one 200 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 1: of the only issues where because, like you said, the 201 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 1: energies existed on the right for so long that in 202 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: a post row, especially a post row environment, but you know, 203 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,559 Speaker 1: especially with the Texas abortion law, it would actually galvanize 204 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 1: and activate many voters who feel, you know, obviously the opposite. 205 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 1: Who are you know, not just pro choice, but like 206 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: kind of vehemently so. And they have been in a 207 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: more comfortable spot for quite a long time they haven't 208 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: and felt the need to go to the ballot box 209 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:48,679 Speaker 1: in order to validate that vote. So all of the 210 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 1: politics of this, I would say, are not good for Republicans. 211 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 1: Many social conservatives I know are like, well it's worth it, 212 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: who cares? And it's like, well, okay, you know, but 213 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: I think we should at least be honest about Look, 214 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: this whole segment to me is keep your eyes open 215 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 1: about where things are headed. Yeah, because I really do 216 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 1: not think the national media is paying attention to the 217 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 1: fact this can be a very very, very very different 218 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 1: country in what a matter of a year. Yeah, this 219 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 1: could be a massive political moment that totally upends our 220 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:22,520 Speaker 1: expectations for what would happen in the midterm election. A 221 00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 1: couple more things on the politics of it you point 222 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 1: to Glenn Youngkin in Virginia, that race is extraordinarily close 223 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 1: when it really shouldn't be, given where Virginia is at 224 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:36,840 Speaker 1: this point. What they've found in the polling is that 225 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 1: the excerbs, which had moved to Biden and moved increasingly 226 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 1: to Democrats, and Democrats were sort of feeling like, Okay, 227 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 1: these excurban counties are now kind of like Fairfax, They're 228 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 1: solidly in our corner. They've started to move more towards Youngkin, 229 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 1: who's this private equity dude who portrays himself as a 230 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 1: very moderate sort of businessman type of approach. This is 231 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 1: the type of issue that could flip those votes in 232 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:07,760 Speaker 1: those exurban counties, especially among women, very very very quickly. 233 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 1: So Terry mccauliffe has been already leaning into this messaging 234 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:15,440 Speaker 1: about the extremism, especially of that Texas law, which really 235 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 1: caught people's attention. There are also some numbers about a 236 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:20,559 Speaker 1: lot of people actually took note of that law and 237 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 1: we're paying attention to what was going on there. There 238 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 1: was one more number I wanted to highlight in that 239 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: Mammoth poll, which is they asked specifically on Roe versus Wade, 240 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 1: and they found sixty two percent of Americans say that 241 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court should leave Row in place, while just 242 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:40,559 Speaker 1: thirty one percent want to see the decision revisited. So again, 243 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 1: even if you throw in margin of error plus polsters 244 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 1: under sample conservatives, even if you throw all of those 245 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 1: things into the mix, you still have a hefty margin 246 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 1: on the side of Row remaining in place. But more 247 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 1: to the point, what have we been talking about with 248 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 1: regard to the midterms. Enthusiasm. Republicans have been very motivated, 249 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 1: very upset that obviously Democrats are you know, in power 250 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 1: and the House, in the Senate presidency. They don't like that, 251 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 1: they don't like some of the some of the provisions 252 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 1: they're being put into place. So they have been much 253 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 1: more enthusiastic and much more motivated than Democrats who have broadly, 254 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 1: you know, gone back to brunch and feel pretty good 255 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: because Donald Trump is out of the White House. This 256 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 1: is the type of thing that could flip that enthusiasm 257 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 1: and turn it on in just a moment's notice. And 258 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 1: you saw this a little bit with Gavin Newsom, which 259 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 1: is why the California race is significant here. Look, Gavin 260 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 1: Newsom never should have been in trouble in California at all. 261 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 1: Of course, part of that is just because of the 262 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 1: weirdness of the recall process there, But there is no 263 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 1: doubt that he opened up a massive gap at the 264 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 1: end and also that Democratic base voters got super enthusiastic 265 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 1: right at the last minute, and that Texas law is 266 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 1: a big part of the story. Why because then it 267 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 1: became real, it became concrete. He could point to a 268 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 1: very clear example of Hey, you want this to come 269 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 1: to California, Now, what's that realistic? No, California said, got 270 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 1: two thirds Democratic majority in the Senate and whatever, they 271 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: weren't going to pass this kind of law. But it 272 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 1: made the threat very real to people, and it was 273 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 1: highly motivating. You can only imagine how motivating it would 274 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 1: be for a lot of base Democrats, especially the type 275 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 1: of suburban voters that Democrats have come to count on 276 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 1: now for their majorities. If Roe was actually threatened or 277 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: ultimately overturned. Yeah, I think that's right. And you know, 278 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 1: our producer James Pulled this was put it up there 279 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 1: from the Wall Street Journal. Is that Texas doctor. There's 280 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 1: a Texas doctor who actually openly came out and was like, 281 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: I violated the actual law and now he's we have 282 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 1: private action is being brought there against him. So that's 283 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 1: another thing, you know, can turn into a media spotlight. 284 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 1: I think it is one of the biggest stories in 285 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 1: the country. As much as some people don't necessarily want 286 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: to talk about it, I don't think the media is 287 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: really setting expectations. The Biden administration, interestingly enough, seems to 288 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 1: have their eyes on what is happening here, and in 289 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 1: terms of the time line, this could all happen, like 290 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 1: I said, very very quickly. In terms of the judgment, 291 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 1: the justices have, like I believe, a twenty five to 292 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 1: thirty day period after hearing it in order to actually 293 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 1: issue a judgment, and from there then the state legislators 294 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 1: and all of them can meet and you'll be living 295 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 1: in a totally different environment. So something very much like 296 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 1: right in your face. The moment I saw it, I thought, 297 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 1: you know, let me reach out, let me try and 298 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 1: figure out exactly what's going on here. And the more 299 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 1: I heard back, I was like, Wow, this really really 300 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 1: could be one of the biggest stories that you know 301 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: of our of our lifetime in terms of politics. I think, 302 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 1: especially because a lot of the biden economic agenda effectively 303 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: is falling apart, which was so yeah, which we will 304 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 1: get to, especially with David Surat, and I'm also talking 305 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 1: about it in my monologue, but it is very likely 306 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 1: that Democrats are coming into the midterms without a whole 307 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 1: lot of concrete, tangible achievements that they can point to. 308 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 1: And what we've seen, there's one thing we've learned. It's 309 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 1: how not just this election cycle, but over decades now, 310 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 1: it's how potent culture war really is. I mean, this 311 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 1: is part of Thomas Frank what's the matter with Kansas? 312 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 1: Part of what really adhered and moved a lot of 313 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 1: white working class voters solidly into the Republican camp were 314 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:17,440 Speaker 1: issues like abortion rights and the distance between their own 315 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:20,119 Speaker 1: values and what they saw in the Democratic Party. So 316 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 1: if that issue is in a sense sort of taken 317 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 1: off the table, if they actually get what they want politically, 318 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:29,360 Speaker 1: it does create a lot of challenges for Republicans because 319 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 1: they can always use this as a way to motivate 320 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 1: their But this time, give us power and we'll get 321 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 1: that Supreme Court. It's going to happen this time. No 322 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 1: that this time, we're really going to do it. This 323 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,600 Speaker 1: time we're really going to mean it. And that's worked 324 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 1: for a whole lot of years, even as the Supreme 325 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 1: Court has not actually delivered on what's been promised to 326 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 1: conservative voters too much. You know, glad that that's the case. 327 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,480 Speaker 1: But year after year after year, if they actually get 328 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 1: what they want, it'll be interesting to see how those 329 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: politics shift, not just for the midterm elections, but if 330 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: you take that motivating issue effectively out of play, that 331 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: gives Republicans actually a challenge at the ballot box to 332 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 1: convince people that it's still they still need to turn 333 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 1: out that this is there's still huge issues at stake 334 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 1: for them when let's be frank, like the Republican Party 335 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:16,440 Speaker 1: doesn't stand for a whole lot these days other than 336 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:18,919 Speaker 1: like we like Donald Trump. Right, Yeah, so you know 337 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:21,879 Speaker 1: it really will set the map. I'm increasingly convinced of 338 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:28,160 Speaker 1: that interesting story here. So stock market big drop yesterday, 339 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 1: can throw this CNBC tear sheet up on the screen 340 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,680 Speaker 1: that has the details. S and P five hundred fell 341 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 1: one point seven percent, posting its worst daily performance since 342 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,920 Speaker 1: May twelve. Broad sell off, with each of the main 343 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 1: eleven sectors of the benchmark registering losses. Dow Jones Industrial 344 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,440 Speaker 1: average also lost six hundred and fourteen point four one 345 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 1: points or one point eight percent. That was its biggest 346 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 1: one day drop since July nineteenth, and the tech heavy 347 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 1: Nasdaq dropped two point two percent, so significant drop in 348 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 1: the graph of re people's feelings. What analysts are saying 349 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: is going on is a few things. Number one COVID 350 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 1: obvious delta, aariant a surging, creating a lot of uncertainty, 351 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:13,400 Speaker 1: some new potential pullback, although consumer spending numbers that came 352 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 1: in were actually relatively strong, but some still uncertainty about 353 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,879 Speaker 1: how is the economic picture going to fair, especially when 354 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: you've just pulled a lot of the supports, the pandemic 355 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:28,479 Speaker 1: era supports out from underneath the individual American consumer. So 356 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 1: that's one obvious thing. Another thing is the DC brinksmanship 357 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 1: that we're going to be talking about more. You've got 358 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:38,200 Speaker 1: three things coming together. You've got potential government shutdown, you've 359 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 1: got potential debt feeling breach, you've got the all the 360 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:46,439 Speaker 1: machinations around reconciliation bill. That's also creating some uncertainty on 361 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 1: Wall Street. But the one that I did the deep 362 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: dive on is there are deep concerns about China, and 363 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 1: in particular this gigantic property development group called Evergrand. So 364 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:05,359 Speaker 1: so Evergrand has a massive amount of debt, three hundred 365 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 1: plus billion dollars in debt. Now, the property and real 366 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,440 Speaker 1: estate market in China in general accounts for a huge 367 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:16,399 Speaker 1: percent of their GDP, something like thirty percent. That is 368 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,679 Speaker 1: massively more than the US even in the build up 369 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,679 Speaker 1: to our own housing crisis. Okay, so this is a 370 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 1: really really significant part of the economy. And what has 371 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:29,879 Speaker 1: effectively happened here is that Evergrand and other large property 372 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:33,200 Speaker 1: development groups in China, they have used debt to grow 373 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:36,160 Speaker 1: and grow and grow. It's kind of a barrow from 374 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 1: Peter to pay Paul, kind of a scenario. You take 375 00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 1: down all this debt, you pay your contractors, you build 376 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,160 Speaker 1: the houses, You get payments in from people to build 377 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 1: new houses, new apartments, and you're able to keep the 378 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:50,680 Speaker 1: cycle going as long as there is demand and housing 379 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 1: prices keep going up. So two things happen. Number One, 380 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,440 Speaker 1: that demand and the housing price the housing market started 381 00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: to cool off. That put Evergrand in a very difficult position. 382 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:06,560 Speaker 1: In addition, the Chinese government has instituted what they're calling 383 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 1: the three Red Lines policy, which basically they recognize. And 384 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 1: you can understand this from an American perspective, because we're 385 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 1: seeing a very similar thing. Housing prices are just going 386 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 1: up and up and up. They're getting wildly out of 387 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:21,400 Speaker 1: reach for people. It's totally overheated. It's this gigantic bubble. 388 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: They're worried about these companies like Evergrand having these huge 389 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 1: amounts of debt, so they put these new restriction regulations 390 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:33,880 Speaker 1: in place to try to slowly deleverage some of these 391 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,760 Speaker 1: property development giants. So all of these things came together 392 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 1: to make it impossible for Evergrant to continue to borrow 393 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,120 Speaker 1: more money to continue kind of this scheme, and this 394 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 1: effectively a pyramid schemer, like I said, borrowing Peter to 395 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,600 Speaker 1: pay Paul. So now they're in a place where they 396 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 1: are on the verge of complete default. People are calling 397 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,959 Speaker 1: it a potential Lehman Brothers moment. You'll recall in the 398 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 1: US and the financial crisis, Lehman Brothers went under. They 399 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 1: were so enmeshed with the entire economy that that triggers 400 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,480 Speaker 1: this massive domino effect leads to the balance, leads to 401 00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 1: this whole collapse. Well, it's a similar deer deal here 402 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 1: in that you have evergrand very much enmeshed in the 403 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,880 Speaker 1: entire economy. Because I call them a property development group. 404 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 1: That's the core of what they do. They do all 405 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,959 Speaker 1: kinds of other stuff even with just that. Yeah, they 406 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 1: electric cars, which they haven't actually built any but they 407 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 1: have an electric car division. They own a soccer team, 408 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,920 Speaker 1: they have a theme park. They've got like mineral water 409 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:32,879 Speaker 1: or something that they're doing. They've got their hands in 410 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 1: all kinds of things. They've got two hundred thousand employees, 411 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 1: they have thirteen hundred different projects in more than two 412 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 1: hundred and eighty cities across China, and another couple more 413 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 1: aspects of this, one and a half million regular Chinese 414 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:55,439 Speaker 1: citizens have given them deposits to build houses that have 415 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:59,359 Speaker 1: not actually been built yet. So Chinese public very upset 416 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 1: about what's going on right now and wondering if they're 417 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,399 Speaker 1: ultimately going to get their home that they paid for, 418 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,159 Speaker 1: not to mention upset that they see those who are 419 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,919 Speaker 1: already homeowners, they see prices declining. So the thing that 420 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 1: they invested their life savings in and wanted to build 421 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 1: wealth through, which has been a key driver of Chinese 422 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,679 Speaker 1: wealth creation, that seems to be not working out for 423 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 1: them right now, so there have been protests taking over 424 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:25,480 Speaker 1: the headquarters of Evergrand. And then the last piece of 425 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 1: this before I play a little bit of what the 426 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,920 Speaker 1: BBC had to say about this, or Reuter, sorry, I 427 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 1: had to say about this is the fact that a 428 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 1: lot of these cities in China, especially second and third 429 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 1: tier cities, the way that they finance their operations is 430 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 1: through these land sales. That's how they make up the 431 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 1: revenue that they need. Evergrand and other property development groups 432 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:50,919 Speaker 1: have been a key component of financing of buying this 433 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:55,159 Speaker 1: land and helping to finance these cities. So again, that's why, 434 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 1: even though one thing that's different is Lehman Brothers didn't 435 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 1: have like real assets, Evergrant has re ass as real 436 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,199 Speaker 1: property real companies that they are trying to offload in 437 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,400 Speaker 1: a certain way, causing agand prices to continue to go down. 438 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:11,439 Speaker 1: But the contagion and the potential for a sort of 439 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,439 Speaker 1: domino effect because they are so intertwined with all of 440 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 1: these development companies, with all kinds of different banks, with 441 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,480 Speaker 1: two hundred and eighty different Chinese cities, that's why this 442 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 1: is such a big deal. Right now, Let's take a 443 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 1: listener a little bit of what Reuters had to say 444 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:29,440 Speaker 1: about it. Pressure on property group China Evergrand has intensified 445 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:33,719 Speaker 1: fears over its ability to repay investors, triggered protests earlier 446 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 1: this week and will likely rattle Beijing. The cash strapped group, 447 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,960 Speaker 1: which has about three hundred and five billion dollars in liabilities, 448 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:45,320 Speaker 1: said on Tuesday it's engaged advisors to examine its options. 449 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:49,800 Speaker 1: It warned of default risks amid plunging property sales. Regulators 450 00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:53,399 Speaker 1: and financial markets are worried that any crisis could ripple 451 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:57,440 Speaker 1: through China's banking system and potentially trigger wider social unrest. 452 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 1: In the latest development, ever said two of its subsidiaries 453 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 1: had failed to uphold guarantee obligations for one hundred and 454 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 1: forty five million dollars worth of wealth management product. So 455 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,399 Speaker 1: you've got a lot of upset people there at Evergrand HQ. 456 00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 1: You've got you know, China warning banks that they're not 457 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 1: going to make their interest payments. You have this massive 458 00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:23,320 Speaker 1: debt burden that is way beyond what their assets can 459 00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:26,399 Speaker 1: support and certainly way beyond what their cash on hand 460 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,960 Speaker 1: can ultimately support. And the big question is is the 461 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,360 Speaker 1: Chinese government going to come in and bail them OUNT. 462 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,360 Speaker 1: Now you may think that that's obvious, like, yes, yes, 463 00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,160 Speaker 1: that's obvious. Of course they'll come in and bail them Ount. 464 00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:39,960 Speaker 1: They're going to be fine. Of course, like every other 465 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 1: big company in China, they're totally intertwined with the Chinese 466 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 1: Communist Party, So they're going to come in and bail 467 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,120 Speaker 1: them OUNT, and it's all going to be fine. That 468 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 1: may well be the case, but Jijiping has been trying 469 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,160 Speaker 1: to institute these reforms and this isn't the first time 470 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,680 Speaker 1: where they've had to deal with the situation of companies 471 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 1: getting way on over the skis, being way over leveraged 472 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:03,400 Speaker 1: in this insanely irresponsible way, and so they are concerned 473 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 1: about this idea of too big to fail, this concept 474 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,680 Speaker 1: of moral hazard, the fact that if we bail them out, 475 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 1: then all these other property groups, all these other gigantic 476 00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:17,840 Speaker 1: corporations know that they can just wildly borrow and spend 477 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,399 Speaker 1: and grow, grow, grow, without any concern of what the 478 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:25,600 Speaker 1: ultimate ramifications might be, because we've essentially said, yeah, you 479 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:27,399 Speaker 1: are too big to fail, and so we're putting in 480 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 1: a backstop here. Yeah, and this is the fascinating part, 481 00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,959 Speaker 1: which is that I did not know this. Evergrand's total 482 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 1: debt burden is the biggest for any publicly traded real 483 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 1: estate management or development company in the world here, so 484 00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:45,359 Speaker 1: the entire world. They have the largest of any publicly 485 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,640 Speaker 1: traded real estate company. What's even more interesting, and there's 486 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:51,080 Speaker 1: so many connections to the financial crisis, it's just so hard, 487 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 1: is that they, despite having pile on this debt, have 488 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 1: been paying out billions of one in dividends to their stockholders. 489 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:03,400 Speaker 1: The largest shareholder is, of course, their owner, mister We. Now, 490 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 1: mister we has made five point three billion dollars in 491 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:12,320 Speaker 1: dividend payments just since October and nine of twenty and eighteen. 492 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 1: And the biggest problem is his company is as you 493 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:18,080 Speaker 1: mentioned those three red lines, he is now in violation 494 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:20,920 Speaker 1: of all three. So there's a lot going on here. 495 00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:23,640 Speaker 1: I think the most important part is that most Chinese 496 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:28,199 Speaker 1: financial engineering does not result in losses actually in China 497 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,639 Speaker 1: and to the Chinese people, usually the people who get 498 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 1: screwed are us or their own billionaires. In terms of 499 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 1: throwing each other in prison, there's a lot of like 500 00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:39,119 Speaker 1: financial scheming or you know, jack Ma or whatever. Like 501 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:42,480 Speaker 1: the richest people here, you actually have a case of 502 00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:46,200 Speaker 1: their financial engineering, and they're kind of like crazy rapacious 503 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:50,400 Speaker 1: capitalism which they borrow from us, actually screwing over normal 504 00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:54,879 Speaker 1: Chinese people who housing is incredibly important to the Chinese 505 00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 1: middle class. They see it as a way to actually 506 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,879 Speaker 1: build equity and wealth. They actually lined up outside of 507 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,760 Speaker 1: Evergran twenty five years ago in order to go and 508 00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,119 Speaker 1: put down deposits on apartment buildings because they were so 509 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,360 Speaker 1: excited about some of these reforms that were introduced within 510 00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 1: the economy. So ownership and property is a huge part 511 00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,960 Speaker 1: of Chinese society, of your social status and all that. 512 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 1: Losing out on that and having that rug pulled from 513 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,879 Speaker 1: under you buy, you know, these kind of billionaire elites 514 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 1: makes it now that the CCP has a real choice. 515 00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 1: Do they bail out the company and make sure that 516 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,359 Speaker 1: the deposits are safe for these one million or so Chinese. 517 00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 1: Here's the other problem. It's not just Evergrand. They happen 518 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 1: to be the most leveraged and the most screwed. But 519 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 1: you were telling me and I looked into it. They 520 00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 1: have all of these interconnected deals all across of China 521 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,640 Speaker 1: with all these other real estate companies, and actually, if 522 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,640 Speaker 1: you're closely watching the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Just very recently, 523 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:52,000 Speaker 1: we saw an eighty seven percent drop in a single 524 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:56,520 Speaker 1: Shanghai based developer on the Hong Kong Exchange yesterday before 525 00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,400 Speaker 1: trading was paused. The entire exchange is kind of in 526 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:03,360 Speaker 1: chaos as there's other real estate companies all across China 527 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:06,160 Speaker 1: which you're beginning to go in free fall, and it 528 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:09,040 Speaker 1: actually has a lot of connections to our own housing 529 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,480 Speaker 1: crisis in terms of when you have thirty percent of 530 00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 1: the economy built up into a single sector, then you 531 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 1: allow all of this debt in order to spiral on 532 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,120 Speaker 1: top of each other, which is built only on the 533 00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,520 Speaker 1: premise that the value goes up. Hence the stonks ticker. 534 00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,160 Speaker 1: Because these stalks go up, it's like, well, as long 535 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:27,560 Speaker 1: as it goes up, we're good. But oh, the moment 536 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:29,440 Speaker 1: that it goes down a little bit and some of 537 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 1: our debt obligations comes into clear view, then it's a 538 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 1: total disaster. It's a It's a big, big moment for 539 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 1: Shishiping because look, the CCP, what they care most about, 540 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 1: other than making themselves rich is actual legitimacy amongst the 541 00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,360 Speaker 1: Chinese people. And if Chinese people million or so in 542 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:49,880 Speaker 1: the so called you know, socialism with Chinese characteristics lose 543 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,640 Speaker 1: their houses. That's maybe an expectation here in the United States. 544 00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:58,280 Speaker 1: That's a central guarantee of the CCP if they lose 545 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,000 Speaker 1: that massive social unrest with it China. And you can 546 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:05,120 Speaker 1: see how the questions here are not clear cut because, 547 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,400 Speaker 1: on the one hand, as you said, what allowed this 548 00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 1: whole scheme to continue was prices going up and up 549 00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 1: and up, some of it artificially so and so as 550 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,040 Speaker 1: long as that was continuing, basically the music didn't stop. 551 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,840 Speaker 1: On the other hand, prices going up and up and 552 00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 1: up means that young people who want to buy in 553 00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:29,760 Speaker 1: and start their own middle class Chinese dream are increasingly 554 00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:33,800 Speaker 1: unable to do that, which is why Jijinpang in part 555 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:36,520 Speaker 1: put into place these three red lines and trying to 556 00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,680 Speaker 1: reel things in and kind of take the foot off 557 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 1: the gas pedal so that they could balance in affordability 558 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 1: with you know, hopefully not having housing prices fall off 559 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,160 Speaker 1: a cliff too much. Of course, they've also got a 560 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,840 Speaker 1: demographic issue, which just means that demand is not as 561 00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:56,480 Speaker 1: much as it used to be. So these are thorty 562 00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,640 Speaker 1: questions that they have to deal with right now. So look, 563 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 1: I think still probably what is most likely to happen 564 00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:04,560 Speaker 1: is they're going to suck it up and they're going 565 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:07,080 Speaker 1: to bail them out. Most likely, that is most likely 566 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 1: the case because the risk here is so high because 567 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,480 Speaker 1: you are talking about Look, you're talking about two hundred 568 00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:17,680 Speaker 1: thousand employees, talking about innumerable contractors. That's reportedly some of 569 00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,080 Speaker 1: the people who've been storming the headquarters of these contractors 570 00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,480 Speaker 1: who are like, we're not getting paid. There are employees 571 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 1: not getting paid. You're talking about two hundred and eighty 572 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:29,680 Speaker 1: different cities that are in meshion intertwined with Evergrand. You're 573 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:33,120 Speaker 1: talking about all these different financial institutions. I think I 574 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:36,000 Speaker 1: saw it was like one hundred and seventy one domestic 575 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,440 Speaker 1: banks and one hundred and twenty one other financial firms 576 00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 1: that Evergrand owes money to that's not going to be 577 00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 1: able to make their interest payments to a lot of 578 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:49,360 Speaker 1: those banks. So it's just such a gigantic risk and 579 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:54,800 Speaker 1: so intertwined throughout the Chinese and ultimately global economy. That's 580 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,880 Speaker 1: why you would still probably bet on them, just saying, eh, well, 581 00:31:57,960 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 1: I guess that is too big to fail. And I 582 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:01,240 Speaker 1: guess we are just going to continue to have that 583 00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 1: moral hazard, but it is not a certainty whatsoever. I 584 00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,600 Speaker 1: just saw a flash from Bloomberg Wall Street bets on 585 00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:12,240 Speaker 1: China to bail out Evergrand. So you see the Wall 586 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 1: Street No, those guys, they never get it right. I mean, 587 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 1: my baby, here's the thing. I'm just so saddened to 588 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:24,640 Speaker 1: see black Rock and many other private equity groups who 589 00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:27,960 Speaker 1: took a big position in Evergrand and uh and put 590 00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,239 Speaker 1: An imported so much of the Chinese system into our 591 00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,920 Speaker 1: own markets. It used to be that our markets infected 592 00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,120 Speaker 1: the rest of the world. Now it seems that they 593 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,840 Speaker 1: are coming to infect ours. It's just the triumph of globalization. 594 00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 1: And I'm just so happy for Wall Street for having 595 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,200 Speaker 1: to brought this to our shores and now, you know, 596 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,560 Speaker 1: possibly wiping out four oh one k benefits for like 597 00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:51,000 Speaker 1: firefighters because the Chinese can't have their real estate markets 598 00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:54,120 Speaker 1: under control. For just a triumphs for America, great for us, 599 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:57,920 Speaker 1: great for your average Chinese citizen. Just beautiful story. All 600 00:32:57,880 --> 00:32:59,960 Speaker 1: Thank you everybody. Hey, so remember how we told you 601 00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:03,320 Speaker 1: how awesome premium membership was. Well, here we are again 602 00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:05,959 Speaker 1: to remind you that becoming a premium member means you 603 00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 1: don't have to listen to our constant please for you 604 00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,360 Speaker 1: to subscribe. So what are you waiting for? Become a 605 00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:14,360 Speaker 1: premium member today by going to Breakingpoints dot com, which 606 00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,400 Speaker 1: you can click on in the show notes. Speaking of 607 00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:21,440 Speaker 1: beautiful stories, we've got a real mess in DC right now. 608 00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:27,600 Speaker 1: They're effectively three different issues coming to a head all 609 00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:31,600 Speaker 1: at one time in the single month, right literally right now. Okay, 610 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:35,200 Speaker 1: so you've got the Reconciliation Bill that we've obviously told 611 00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:38,200 Speaker 1: you a lot about, Mansion send them a god, all 612 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,560 Speaker 1: these people creating a lot of questions about whether not. 613 00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:43,840 Speaker 1: You know, I've always been of the belief like they're 614 00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:45,880 Speaker 1: going to get something through. I am no longer so 615 00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:50,239 Speaker 1: certain in that position because it looks like there are 616 00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:53,000 Speaker 1: some real, irreconcilable differences here. We're going to get to 617 00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 1: that piece more with David Stroodim. So that's number one. 618 00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:59,360 Speaker 1: Number two, you have a looming government shut down on 619 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:04,200 Speaker 1: September thirtieth if they don't pass a stop gap spending bill. 620 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:08,200 Speaker 1: So that's number two. And number three is you have 621 00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:12,120 Speaker 1: a potential debt default if the debt ceiling is not 622 00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:15,239 Speaker 1: lifted or suspended by mid October. You know, they have 623 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,320 Speaker 1: to do these estimates of when the government's actually actually 624 00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:19,759 Speaker 1: going to run out of money. They think it's going 625 00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:22,960 Speaker 1: to be mid October. So that's kind of the hard 626 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,560 Speaker 1: deadline of when the debt ceiling has to be either 627 00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:29,799 Speaker 1: lifted or suspended. Republicans, while they held power, they just 628 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,400 Speaker 1: suspended it so that they wouldn't have to put a 629 00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:35,120 Speaker 1: hard number on, like, you know, we're increasing the debt 630 00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:38,319 Speaker 1: quadrillion dollars or whatever it is, because there's all this 631 00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:41,880 Speaker 1: fear politically around assigning a number to it and then 632 00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,480 Speaker 1: getting hit with ads about what a reckless and irresponsible 633 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:47,759 Speaker 1: spender you are, even though which you guys are all 634 00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:51,200 Speaker 1: smart enough to know, the debt ceiling is arbitrary. It's 635 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:53,920 Speaker 1: sort of silly. It's all about just increasing the limit 636 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:55,840 Speaker 1: so you can pay for the things that you've already 637 00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:59,080 Speaker 1: committed to spending. So this isn't about like new spending 638 00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:02,239 Speaker 1: or anything like that. So Republicans don't want to help 639 00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:04,719 Speaker 1: Democrats out of the jam that they've found themselves in, 640 00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:09,720 Speaker 1: and what Democrats are effectively betting on at this point 641 00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:13,520 Speaker 1: is that Republicans will be too scared of getting assigned 642 00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,880 Speaker 1: blamed for a government shut down to allow the government 643 00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:18,360 Speaker 1: to shut to be the ones that stand in the 644 00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:20,520 Speaker 1: way of the government shutdown. So they've tied these two 645 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 1: things together, the government shut down, the spending bill that 646 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,680 Speaker 1: they have to pass to avoid that, and the debt default. 647 00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:28,919 Speaker 1: So they want to pass a stop death spending bill 648 00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,080 Speaker 1: that includes an increase in the debt ceiling. That's the 649 00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:36,479 Speaker 1: Democrats bet right now. Now they have another alternative. They 650 00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:40,360 Speaker 1: can lift the debt ceiling on their own through reconciliation, 651 00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:43,319 Speaker 1: so through the you know, they would just need their 652 00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:46,080 Speaker 1: people in the Senate fifty votes and you know, majority 653 00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:48,120 Speaker 1: in the House, so they could do it on their 654 00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:53,400 Speaker 1: own through reconciliation, but they're worried about doing that because 655 00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:58,160 Speaker 1: of political considerations. Congressman John Yarmouth, my former congressman back 656 00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,080 Speaker 1: in Louisville, who is the chair of the Budget Committee 657 00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,680 Speaker 1: and who is oftentimes a little bit too honest about 658 00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,640 Speaker 1: helping actually work in Washington, which is why I enjoy 659 00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:11,279 Speaker 1: him quite a lot. He explained very specifically why Democrats 660 00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:14,160 Speaker 1: do not want to do this themselves to reconciliation. Listic 661 00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:18,040 Speaker 1: listen to what he had to say, so I understand 662 00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:21,880 Speaker 1: what's their plan, what's the fallback plan? If Republicans are 663 00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:24,000 Speaker 1: sticking to this threat. I mean, how do you see 664 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:28,239 Speaker 1: this standoff ending? Well, ultimately, they're going to have to 665 00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,480 Speaker 1: vote for it, or we're going to have to We're 666 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:32,200 Speaker 1: going to have to have a vote and do it 667 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:36,359 Speaker 1: by ourselves. We can do it through reconciliation. Leadership has 668 00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,680 Speaker 1: said they don't want to do that. The reason is 669 00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,400 Speaker 1: if we do that through reconciliation, we actually have to 670 00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:45,880 Speaker 1: specify a number that only leads to further chaos in 671 00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:49,480 Speaker 1: a certain period of time. So what we should do 672 00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:52,360 Speaker 1: is do What we should do is abolish the dead ceiling, 673 00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,560 Speaker 1: because we're the only country in the world that has 674 00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:57,200 Speaker 1: one that operates like this. But what we ought to 675 00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,880 Speaker 1: do is just raise it to an extraordinarily large amount 676 00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:04,560 Speaker 1: that will never reach. That's probably not a viable politically, 677 00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:07,960 Speaker 1: but we'll get the the dead ceiling race. There is 678 00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:11,359 Speaker 1: no alternative. Mitch just said this many many times over 679 00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:14,760 Speaker 1: the last few years, but there is no alternative raising 680 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:19,520 Speaker 1: the dead sealing. So Connors and Yarmat there say, yeah, 681 00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:22,040 Speaker 1: I mean, that's why I do kind of like this guy. 682 00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,439 Speaker 1: He is saying what he would do is he would 683 00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:29,640 Speaker 1: just lift the dead ceiling to some like absurdly ridiculous 684 00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,560 Speaker 1: number and then not have to worry about it again, 685 00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:35,480 Speaker 1: which seems like a pretty sound strategy from my perspective, 686 00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:39,640 Speaker 1: and I think it would be. I've never actually seen 687 00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:43,160 Speaker 1: negative political ads around the dead ceiling. There seems to 688 00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,600 Speaker 1: be this like fear that, oh, they're going to use 689 00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,799 Speaker 1: this against us, But I mean, they're going to say 690 00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:51,480 Speaker 1: you're spending too much money anyway, whether they have the 691 00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:55,560 Speaker 1: absurdly large debt ceiling number or not. But effectively, that's 692 00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:57,799 Speaker 1: why Democrats don't want to do this on their own, 693 00:37:57,880 --> 00:37:59,800 Speaker 1: because they don't want to have to put a specific 694 00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,680 Speaker 1: number to it and give Republicans a talking point to 695 00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,680 Speaker 1: work with. They're betting on forcing the GOP to help 696 00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:08,040 Speaker 1: them with the stop gap spending measure. They're betting on 697 00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,280 Speaker 1: the fact that if Republicans don't vote for the stop 698 00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,239 Speaker 1: gap spending bill and the government shuts down, they can 699 00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,799 Speaker 1: blame Republicans, and Republicans won't want that. So far, Mitch 700 00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,879 Speaker 1: McConnell is holding strong. We have a tweet McConnell's saying 701 00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:23,040 Speaker 1: on the Senate floor that GOP will not support legislation 702 00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:25,839 Speaker 1: with the debt limit suspension included in it. So that's 703 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,000 Speaker 1: where we are. It's kind of a game of chicken, 704 00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:31,200 Speaker 1: but one in which Democrats have an out, which is 705 00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:33,759 Speaker 1: the reconciliation Bill if they choose y yes. But part 706 00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:35,640 Speaker 1: of the problem, and which we'll get to with David Serota, 707 00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:37,480 Speaker 1: is if they wanted to include the debt ceiling, they 708 00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,719 Speaker 1: would have to redraft reconciliation instructions, which would mean more 709 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:42,680 Speaker 1: votes back on the Senate floor and right take it 710 00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:45,920 Speaker 1: over to the House. And there's a time limit if 711 00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:49,600 Speaker 1: the infrastructure bill is supposed to pass on September twenty seventh, 712 00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,200 Speaker 1: which is really soon, and those two things are tied together. 713 00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:54,640 Speaker 1: So that's the other piece thing exactly. So timeline wise 714 00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:57,319 Speaker 1: is very complicated. McConnell's saying that they won't support it. 715 00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:59,880 Speaker 1: Not only will they not support it, they won't support cloture, 716 00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:02,120 Speaker 1: which means that they won't even allow it to come 717 00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:04,239 Speaker 1: to the floor, so they're effectively trying to force them 718 00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:08,279 Speaker 1: into it. I agree with you though on the political consequences. Look, 719 00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:12,480 Speaker 1: I mean extraordinary spending, extraordinary crisis, all of this saying 720 00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:15,319 Speaker 1: Democrats raise the debt ceiling to like expert. I just 721 00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:17,239 Speaker 1: don't buy it. I don't buy that that's going to 722 00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,640 Speaker 1: have any consequence whatsoever. We suspended the debt ceiling altogether 723 00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:22,880 Speaker 1: under the Trump administration because we had to spend a 724 00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:26,480 Speaker 1: historical amount of money during the coronavirus crisis. Debt politics 725 00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:29,480 Speaker 1: in this way just seems so twenty ten. And then 726 00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:32,839 Speaker 1: even back in twenty ten, the debt ceiling fight had 727 00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,680 Speaker 1: nothing to do with actual debt. What was it. It 728 00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:39,279 Speaker 1: was Republicans needed to show that they were standing up 729 00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:42,879 Speaker 1: to Obama, that they were trying to extract concessions they 730 00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:44,960 Speaker 1: ever cared about the debt, and voters didn't care about 731 00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:47,160 Speaker 1: the debt either. They just liked the fact that they 732 00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:50,280 Speaker 1: were making life difficult for the Democrats. So that's pretty 733 00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:53,600 Speaker 1: much what this entire thing is about. I mean, shutdown 734 00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:57,480 Speaker 1: politics are really complicated. Obama bet big that he would 735 00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:01,680 Speaker 1: not get blamed for the Banner and Cruse shutdown. I 736 00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:03,600 Speaker 1: mean it was like kind of fifty to fifty at 737 00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:06,960 Speaker 1: the end of day Trump, I mean, complete disaster. His 738 00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:10,680 Speaker 1: whole shutdown. The boy, especially because he's caved not only 739 00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:12,520 Speaker 1: to shut the government down for two weeks, didn't even 740 00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:15,960 Speaker 1: get anything in return. So that didn't work out. My 741 00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:19,560 Speaker 1: personal theory is that while in the short term, yes, 742 00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:23,600 Speaker 1: the chaos may go blame to the Republicans, McConnell learned 743 00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:27,240 Speaker 1: very well through the Obama administration, if you cause enough chaos, 744 00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,320 Speaker 1: and especially we always know shutdowns have an adverse impact 745 00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:33,080 Speaker 1: on the economy, they have an adverse impact on service, 746 00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:35,440 Speaker 1: and they make it so that the overall feeling of 747 00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:39,200 Speaker 1: chaos in Washington, people very very rarely blame the guy 748 00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:41,520 Speaker 1: whose name they don't even know. People most people don't 749 00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:43,359 Speaker 1: even know who mch McConnell is. They don't even know, 750 00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:46,239 Speaker 1: you know that our cane cent procedure. They're just like, hey, 751 00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:49,600 Speaker 1: what's going on under Joe Biden's presidency. So I would 752 00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:52,759 Speaker 1: not bet that a shutdown maybe in the short term, 753 00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:54,440 Speaker 1: but I think in the long term it would damage 754 00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:57,560 Speaker 1: the Biden presidency, which I think is what Frankly McConnell 755 00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,200 Speaker 1: is going for. We have a betting on, yeah, he has. 756 00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:03,839 Speaker 1: We have an interesting explainer theat from Catherine Rampel, which 757 00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:05,680 Speaker 1: we animated here. Let's put this up there and I'll 758 00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:07,759 Speaker 1: read it for the people who are just listening, which 759 00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,400 Speaker 1: is that the answer is why this wasn't in reconciliation 760 00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:12,279 Speaker 1: in the first place, is a little bit silly. But 761 00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:15,239 Speaker 1: if Congress acts through regular order, they can vote to 762 00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:17,440 Speaker 1: raise the debt limit, like we were explaining, only to 763 00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:21,080 Speaker 1: a specific dollar amount. In recent years, what we've been 764 00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:24,240 Speaker 1: doing is suspending it. That way, we don't have headlines 765 00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:27,239 Speaker 1: which say the Congress raised debt to thirty trillion. So, 766 00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:29,839 Speaker 1: in other words, Congress really only deals with the debt 767 00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:35,080 Speaker 1: limit if through reconciliation, their only option is to raise 768 00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:37,760 Speaker 1: it to a specific dollar figure, and they're not allowed 769 00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:41,080 Speaker 1: to suspend it. So Democrats afraid of what that headline is, 770 00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:43,319 Speaker 1: you know, Crystal, this goes to show how wimpy they 771 00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:46,240 Speaker 1: are too. There was this entire thing where the Dems 772 00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,759 Speaker 1: were like, we're going to remind the American people that 773 00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:51,920 Speaker 1: this was Trump debt too, and that's why the Republicans 774 00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:53,919 Speaker 1: I'd be like, first of all, McConnell doesn't care about 775 00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,640 Speaker 1: looking like a hypocrite because he knows in the long 776 00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,520 Speaker 1: you will suffer. And number two, I just think this 777 00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:02,560 Speaker 1: entire thing is dumb. Put it in the damn reconciliation 778 00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:04,720 Speaker 1: and let's all move on. Should have done. I truly 779 00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:08,240 Speaker 1: do not believe that most people give a rats ass 780 00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:12,239 Speaker 1: about the debt ceiling or whatever. Now spending inflation, that's 781 00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:14,600 Speaker 1: a whole other story. But in terms of the actual 782 00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:17,680 Speaker 1: debt ceiling, just no way. Yeah. I mean, they should 783 00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:20,760 Speaker 1: have put it in the reconciliation bill from the beginning 784 00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:24,880 Speaker 1: and the budget instructions. And I think John Yarmitz's suggestion 785 00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:28,720 Speaker 1: that they just make it some like silly absurd number 786 00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:31,560 Speaker 1: that you'll never ever reach is a smart one because 787 00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:33,920 Speaker 1: then you're effectively getting rid of the dead sailing. And 788 00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:37,200 Speaker 1: these politics just suck because they're so meaningless. This isn't 789 00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:40,879 Speaker 1: about anything, right, It's this arbitrary thing that no other 790 00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:45,960 Speaker 1: country has, but you know, it turns into this leverage 791 00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,680 Speaker 1: or weapon in the arsenal of whoever wants to wield 792 00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,959 Speaker 1: it at the time. I also think you're right about 793 00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:55,239 Speaker 1: the politics of it number one, because look, voters understandably 794 00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:57,840 Speaker 1: basically blame the party in power when things are a 795 00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:01,200 Speaker 1: mess in Washington, and Democrats have can of everything. So 796 00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:04,080 Speaker 1: and look they're not wrong to blame times like Democrat 797 00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:06,320 Speaker 1: time out for this, right like put putt it in 798 00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,160 Speaker 1: the budget instructions, and then you wouldn't be in this place, 799 00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:11,440 Speaker 1: So they're not totally wrong to be like, this was 800 00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,319 Speaker 1: kind of on you guys. You had an ability to 801 00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,239 Speaker 1: deal with this, and you didn't deal with it. The 802 00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:20,480 Speaker 1: other thing is that Republicans, anytime there's government dysfunction, that 803 00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:24,920 Speaker 1: plays into their sort of fundamental philosophy and ideology that 804 00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:28,080 Speaker 1: government can't work, government doesn't work, governments of mess best 805 00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:30,680 Speaker 1: thing you can do is just cut the budget, strip 806 00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,640 Speaker 1: power from government, except you know their power. They like 807 00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:35,920 Speaker 1: to keep that part, especially with the executive branch. But 808 00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:40,000 Speaker 1: you know that plays into their overall ideology and allows 809 00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:46,000 Speaker 1: them to create this portrait of dysfunction, chaos, mismanagement, et 810 00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:50,239 Speaker 1: cetera that is ultimately very effective politically for them. So 811 00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:53,080 Speaker 1: I don't think that these politics are good for Democrats 812 00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:56,040 Speaker 1: any way you cut it. They've backed themselves into a 813 00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:59,280 Speaker 1: corner here and I'm not sure exactly how they ultimately 814 00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:01,880 Speaker 1: get out of it. Absolutely. Okay, let's move on to 815 00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:05,759 Speaker 1: another thing. Speaking of hypocrisy, chaos and all of that, 816 00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:08,239 Speaker 1: the city of San Francisco has has some of the 817 00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:12,640 Speaker 1: most stringent lockdown procedure vaccine mandates in restaurants as well 818 00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,480 Speaker 1: as mask mandates. Now that has been a matter of 819 00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:17,880 Speaker 1: consternation for a lot of people who live in that 820 00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:21,840 Speaker 1: great city, and recently their mayor, London Breed, was seen 821 00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:25,720 Speaker 1: in a bar partying maskless, actually with a Black Lives 822 00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:28,080 Speaker 1: Matter founder. But that doesn't you know, that's kind of 823 00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:32,160 Speaker 1: beside the point. Now, when she was pressed on whether 824 00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:35,359 Speaker 1: what she was doing was hypocritical, she delivered one of 825 00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,799 Speaker 1: the most ridiculous defenses that we have yet seen. We 826 00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:42,520 Speaker 1: put together an entire mashup of this long six and 827 00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:45,240 Speaker 1: a half minute answer that you gave. Let's take a listen. 828 00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:47,839 Speaker 1: While I'm eating and I'm drinking, I'm going to keep 829 00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:51,040 Speaker 1: my mask off, and yes, in the end time, while 830 00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:54,640 Speaker 1: we're drinking, like everyone else there, we were all having 831 00:44:54,680 --> 00:45:00,640 Speaker 1: a good time and again, all vaccinated. So the fact 832 00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:04,640 Speaker 1: that this is even a story, it's sad. The message 833 00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:08,280 Speaker 1: I'm want to get out is support our nightlife venues, 834 00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:12,960 Speaker 1: support our restaurants, go out and enjoy yourself, make sure 835 00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:17,200 Speaker 1: you are vaccinated because of the requirements, but don't feel 836 00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:21,720 Speaker 1: as though you have to be micromanaged about mask wearing. 837 00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:24,480 Speaker 1: Like we don't need the fun police to come in 838 00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:27,040 Speaker 1: and try and micromanage and tell us what we should 839 00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:29,440 Speaker 1: or shouldn't be doing. We know what we need to 840 00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:33,840 Speaker 1: do to protect them ourselves. Dwayne Wiggins are But I 841 00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:37,520 Speaker 1: don't know about you. But if you know who they are, 842 00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:40,359 Speaker 1: I don't care where you're sitting, You're gonna get up 843 00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:42,840 Speaker 1: and start dancing. My drink was sitting at the table. 844 00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:46,600 Speaker 1: I got up and started dancing because I was feeling 845 00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:50,279 Speaker 1: the spirit and I wasn't thinking about a mask. I 846 00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:53,000 Speaker 1: was thinking about having a good time. And in the 847 00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:55,960 Speaker 1: process I was following the health order. She was feeling 848 00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:58,680 Speaker 1: the spirit. We can't be the fun police. Here's the thing, 849 00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:03,080 Speaker 1: I agree, Mayor, here's the problem. Your constituent's not allowed 850 00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:05,480 Speaker 1: to feel the spirit in the same way you are 851 00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:08,160 Speaker 1: the fun police. You are the fun police. And just 852 00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:10,680 Speaker 1: so people realize what was going on here, we have 853 00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:14,080 Speaker 1: a video, so let's put this up there. I'll speak 854 00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:17,960 Speaker 1: over it. There is the Mayor all the way back 855 00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:22,080 Speaker 1: there in this crowd of unmasked people at this bar, 856 00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:25,759 Speaker 1: all in closed warders. They're having a great time. Not 857 00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:28,840 Speaker 1: a mask in sight. She's dancing, she's putting her hands 858 00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,759 Speaker 1: up there. If you're just listening, I highly recommend that 859 00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:33,640 Speaker 1: you go on YouTube and you just come and watch 860 00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:36,239 Speaker 1: this segment because you have to see how ridiculous it 861 00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:39,440 Speaker 1: all is. And once again, here's the thing, Crystal, I 862 00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:43,239 Speaker 1: support every person in San Francisco having the ability to 863 00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:46,560 Speaker 1: do exactly this. There is no reason they shouldn't be 864 00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:51,000 Speaker 1: allowed to. But the mayor's own guidelines say the vaccination 865 00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:53,680 Speaker 1: status does not matter that you do have to wear 866 00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:58,359 Speaker 1: masks in the proximity of people indoors. So which is it? 867 00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:02,320 Speaker 1: And it just happens so often. Gavin Newsom's French laundry. 868 00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:04,520 Speaker 1: I mean, you know the what was it the Austin 869 00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:07,799 Speaker 1: mayor Steve Adler who was like, do not relax. Now 870 00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,040 Speaker 1: is not the time for the city of Austin. Do 871 00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:13,000 Speaker 1: not travel while he's in a where was he was 872 00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:16,520 Speaker 1: in Mexico somewhere like Kazumel or kang Kun and you 873 00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:20,040 Speaker 1: could literally see like the Ornate hotel in the background 874 00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:23,560 Speaker 1: in the video. There was like the Denver mayor who 875 00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:26,719 Speaker 1: went and left the city during Thanksgiving even though he's like, 876 00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:30,080 Speaker 1: do not travel during Thanksgiving. It just happens over and 877 00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:32,760 Speaker 1: over again. It's like they have one set of rules 878 00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:35,719 Speaker 1: for everybody else and then they live differently, and all 879 00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,399 Speaker 1: so many people are asking is to just simply live 880 00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:42,280 Speaker 1: under the same guidelines that clearly is governing these elite structures. 881 00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:44,600 Speaker 1: So I think it's important to separate a couple of 882 00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:50,000 Speaker 1: things out. First of all, overall, mask mandates in businesses 883 00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:54,120 Speaker 1: and even you know, like the vaccine or test requirements 884 00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:57,080 Speaker 1: that Biden put into place, are really popular. Fox News 885 00:47:57,160 --> 00:47:59,799 Speaker 1: just did a poll that found where's a sixty seven 886 00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:02,960 Speaker 1: percent and support mandating students and teachers wear masks. Sixty 887 00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:06,920 Speaker 1: six percent say businesses should require massive employees and customers. 888 00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:11,000 Speaker 1: So the issue isn't as much like, especially in a 889 00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:13,920 Speaker 1: city like San Francisco. I'm sure mask and vaccine requirements 890 00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:17,080 Speaker 1: are extraordinarily popular. But what we saw with Gavin Newsom 891 00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:20,680 Speaker 1: is that what people despise is the hypocrisy. And that's 892 00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:25,200 Speaker 1: really really understandable because that gets to this sense that like, oh, 893 00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:27,920 Speaker 1: you think you don't have to play by the rules 894 00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:30,319 Speaker 1: you think the rest of us do, but that you're 895 00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:33,319 Speaker 1: somehow exempt, somehow magically the virus doesn't matter when it 896 00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:37,640 Speaker 1: comes to you. And so I think that hypocrisy is 897 00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:40,600 Speaker 1: what people across the political spectrum, no matter what you 898 00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,200 Speaker 1: think about masks and vaccine mandates and all of this 899 00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:49,319 Speaker 1: absolutely recoil from. You know, it's interesting because she does 900 00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:52,480 Speaker 1: make a very effective case here for if you have 901 00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:56,480 Speaker 1: vaccine mandates, then yeah, what are you so worried about? 902 00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:58,640 Speaker 1: People should be able to go and have fun and 903 00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:02,000 Speaker 1: be massless and party and drink and celebrate and all 904 00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:05,200 Speaker 1: of those things like no big deal and so you know, 905 00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:07,840 Speaker 1: and if you don't have the vaccine mandates, then probably 906 00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:11,560 Speaker 1: the mass mandates indoors make more sense. But to have both, 907 00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:14,880 Speaker 1: she makes the case, i think, quite effectively, is a 908 00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:19,360 Speaker 1: little unnecessary and a little bit over the top. So yeah, 909 00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:21,759 Speaker 1: you don't need the fun police, but you kind of 910 00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:24,960 Speaker 1: are the fun police. And so if you're gonna put 911 00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:28,839 Speaker 1: those restrictions into place, you need to be the one 912 00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:32,920 Speaker 1: first and foremost following it. I guess, Mirio Bowser, that 913 00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:36,520 Speaker 1: was another examples in the salon I forgot. Yeah here 914 00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:39,600 Speaker 1: in our own home city that also got caught at 915 00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:42,879 Speaker 1: a wedding, maskless at the table, et cetera, et cetera. 916 00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:46,759 Speaker 1: And look again, if you believe in these restrictions and 917 00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:49,640 Speaker 1: you think they're necessary to keep people safe, you got 918 00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:51,480 Speaker 1: to be the one leading the charge and setting the 919 00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:54,080 Speaker 1: example for everybody else. That's like the basic definition of 920 00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:57,200 Speaker 1: being a leader. And you know, it just continues to cascade. 921 00:49:57,239 --> 00:49:59,480 Speaker 1: Let's put this up there. From the Emmys. A lot 922 00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:01,400 Speaker 1: of people it out that people at the Emmys, a 923 00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:04,040 Speaker 1: lot of these celebrities were not masks. The La County 924 00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:06,880 Speaker 1: Department of Public Health says, look, they're not in violation 925 00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:09,960 Speaker 1: because there's an exception for film, TV and music production 926 00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:13,440 Speaker 1: and they're quote additional safety modifications. That's not true. There 927 00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:16,279 Speaker 1: were no additional safety modifications. And to the extent that 928 00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:19,520 Speaker 1: they mean that they mean what Glenn Greenwald is consistently 929 00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:22,920 Speaker 1: pointed to the servant class on the sidelines and the 930 00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:26,440 Speaker 1: people who are operating the cameras and elsewhere, who are 931 00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:29,560 Speaker 1: all required to wear a mask while everybody's partying up 932 00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:31,840 Speaker 1: at the Emmys. It's just and look, I know, we 933 00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:35,080 Speaker 1: lead hypocrisy. You can give a million stories, but it's 934 00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:38,520 Speaker 1: a very ugly and terrible image. People were pointing to 935 00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:41,959 Speaker 1: the same thing at the met Gala. Take aoc side 936 00:50:42,080 --> 00:50:44,239 Speaker 1: out of it, because it's not even about her. All 937 00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:47,880 Speaker 1: the other rich financiers and all those people you know, 938 00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:52,080 Speaker 1: with their masked servants serving them food and elsewhere. It's 939 00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:56,759 Speaker 1: just a dramatically stark vision of like, restrictions apply to 940 00:50:56,840 --> 00:51:00,400 Speaker 1: these people, restrictions don't apply to everybody else well, and 941 00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:02,879 Speaker 1: even take it down to a more sort of like 942 00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:05,919 Speaker 1: day to day life situation. And this is something we've 943 00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:07,960 Speaker 1: talked about a lot, is the way that there's a 944 00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:09,840 Speaker 1: class of people who are meant to be served and 945 00:51:09,880 --> 00:51:11,560 Speaker 1: a class of people are meant to do the serving. 946 00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,160 Speaker 1: And you know, if you go in a store in 947 00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:18,680 Speaker 1: Virginia right now, Virginia doesn't have indoor mask mandates, and 948 00:51:18,719 --> 00:51:22,600 Speaker 1: so you're very likely to see all the cashiers, all 949 00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:26,560 Speaker 1: the service workers, all the people who are stocking the shelves, 950 00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:30,160 Speaker 1: cleaning the floors, they're all required by their companies to 951 00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:33,000 Speaker 1: wear masks. Is it because they're worried about their safety 952 00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:36,080 Speaker 1: and protection. No, it's because they want to make the 953 00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:39,360 Speaker 1: customers feel comfortable, the ones who are meant to be served, 954 00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:42,520 Speaker 1: not to be the servers who can, you know, feel 955 00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:45,320 Speaker 1: free to shop and make whatever choices are suitable to them. 956 00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:50,080 Speaker 1: It just once again illustrates the true divide in this country. 957 00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:53,760 Speaker 1: But between the people who are really treated like human beings, 958 00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:56,799 Speaker 1: who are capable of making choices in a situation we're 959 00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:58,800 Speaker 1: you're at a bar or restaurant or at an rewards 960 00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:02,920 Speaker 1: event or whatever, who are trusted to be able to 961 00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:06,080 Speaker 1: make their own choices about what safety looks like. And 962 00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:08,720 Speaker 1: those who have to be mandated, who have to be forced, 963 00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:12,879 Speaker 1: who have to be rendered essentially like invisible and anonymous 964 00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:16,600 Speaker 1: by these masks, not again for the protection of themselves, 965 00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:19,240 Speaker 1: but for the protection of the people who actually matter. 966 00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:21,960 Speaker 1: And that is extremely gross. Yeah, you know, every time 967 00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:24,000 Speaker 1: we go out to eat, it just absolutely kills me 968 00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:26,680 Speaker 1: because the waiters and the chefs. You can actually I 969 00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:28,320 Speaker 1: went to a restaurant recently with an open kind of 970 00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:31,560 Speaker 1: kitchen environment. These chefs are all just sweating, I mean, 971 00:52:31,640 --> 00:52:34,480 Speaker 1: just covered in sweat in this hot environment. I mean, 972 00:52:34,640 --> 00:52:37,440 Speaker 1: anybody who's read like Kitchen Confidential or whatever knows just 973 00:52:37,480 --> 00:52:39,600 Speaker 1: how difficult it is to even work in a kitchen 974 00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:41,840 Speaker 1: in the first place. And they're all wearing masks. Every 975 00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:44,760 Speaker 1: diner in the place, people are drinking, having a good time, 976 00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:46,920 Speaker 1: and the waiter you know, has to you know, is 977 00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:49,239 Speaker 1: to like try and come really close, to try and 978 00:52:49,239 --> 00:52:53,040 Speaker 1: tell you anything. I just, you know, I find the 979 00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:56,520 Speaker 1: whole thing. It's always maybe uncomfortable, but you know, especially 980 00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:58,759 Speaker 1: at this level, as you point to they don't have 981 00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:00,759 Speaker 1: a choice. Everybody else you to sit down, you get 982 00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:03,279 Speaker 1: to have a good time, And that really does stick 983 00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:05,400 Speaker 1: with me. I don't think it's right. Yeah, I agree 984 00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:07,840 Speaker 1: with you. Okay, we're going to get to another pandemic 985 00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:09,920 Speaker 1: story here. This one really it caught my eye and 986 00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:13,440 Speaker 1: it's just really distressing in terms of the overall societal 987 00:53:13,480 --> 00:53:17,759 Speaker 1: impact that our response to coronavirus has had. We've previously 988 00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:21,600 Speaker 1: brought you the drug overdose numbers, the heroin numbers, suicide 989 00:53:21,640 --> 00:53:23,600 Speaker 1: we took a look at. But now we have some 990 00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:26,720 Speaker 1: of the numbers in on childhood obesity from a massive 991 00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:29,560 Speaker 1: new study from the CDC. So let's put this up 992 00:53:29,560 --> 00:53:34,320 Speaker 1: there on the screen. NPR actually covered it, so American children. 993 00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:36,720 Speaker 1: So this was a study that looked at four hundred 994 00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:40,200 Speaker 1: and thirty two thousand, three hundred and two people between 995 00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:43,279 Speaker 1: the ages of two and nineteen years old, and they 996 00:53:43,360 --> 00:53:47,440 Speaker 1: found that the percentage of obese children and teens increased 997 00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:52,840 Speaker 1: to twenty two percent compared with nineteen percent before the pandemic. 998 00:53:53,680 --> 00:53:58,840 Speaker 1: That overall increase is literally, if you extra extrapolate it 999 00:53:58,880 --> 00:54:03,439 Speaker 1: to the general population, millions of children and teens who 1000 00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:07,959 Speaker 1: actually gained not just weight, but became clinically obese during 1001 00:54:08,000 --> 00:54:13,200 Speaker 1: the time of the pandemic. The BMI overall increase is 1002 00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:18,279 Speaker 1: especially distressing because the average weight gain for children is 1003 00:54:18,520 --> 00:54:22,440 Speaker 1: eight point eight pounds before the pandemic overweight to fourteen 1004 00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:26,400 Speaker 1: point six pounds in August of twenty twenty. That actually 1005 00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:30,600 Speaker 1: kicks you from like moderately obese to actually like clinically obese. 1006 00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:32,440 Speaker 1: And what do we know, which is that one of 1007 00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:35,439 Speaker 1: the overall risk factors in COVID, probably the biggest risk 1008 00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:40,080 Speaker 1: factor in COVID is obesity. And we were talking before 1009 00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:43,200 Speaker 1: the show. This is not to shame any parent. This 1010 00:54:43,360 --> 00:54:46,640 Speaker 1: is not to shame anybody out there for this happening. 1011 00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:50,520 Speaker 1: If you are a working class parent, especially if you're single, 1012 00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:53,800 Speaker 1: and you just got the school lunch you know, system 1013 00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:57,360 Speaker 1: or whatever removed out from under you. Oh and you 1014 00:54:57,520 --> 00:55:00,000 Speaker 1: have to go work at the grocery store or whatever 1015 00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:03,120 Speaker 1: as an essential worker, or you have to struggle with 1016 00:55:03,160 --> 00:55:06,040 Speaker 1: COVID unemployment. Yeah, it's going to be a tough time. 1017 00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:09,080 Speaker 1: It's gonna be a tough situation. It's not your fault. 1018 00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:13,160 Speaker 1: These are major macro decisions that were made at the 1019 00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:16,680 Speaker 1: overall societal level. Let's throw Alec mcgillis's tweet up there 1020 00:55:16,680 --> 00:55:18,799 Speaker 1: on the screen because he actually also shows some of 1021 00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:21,759 Speaker 1: the data and the movement. The rate of by the 1022 00:55:21,880 --> 00:55:26,319 Speaker 1: massed index increase doubled during the pandemic compared to the 1023 00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:30,640 Speaker 1: pre pandemic period, So in literal doubling in the BMI 1024 00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:36,800 Speaker 1: increase percentage wise for these children ages two and nineteen. 1025 00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:40,080 Speaker 1: And here's the thing. As anybody's been overweighted, especially me, 1026 00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:42,160 Speaker 1: I was overweight as a child. What do we know 1027 00:55:42,480 --> 00:55:45,120 Speaker 1: once you put it on, it's very difficult to come off. 1028 00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:50,160 Speaker 1: Lifestyle choice. Look, I'm lucky, you know, I'm gym membership. 1029 00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:52,840 Speaker 1: All this affordeed healthy. A lot of people can a 1030 00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:55,000 Speaker 1: lot of people have to work two jobs or whatever. 1031 00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:56,800 Speaker 1: And the easiest thing in the world whenever you're stressed 1032 00:55:56,800 --> 00:55:58,880 Speaker 1: in order to reach for junk food. That's literally what 1033 00:55:58,960 --> 00:56:01,000 Speaker 1: it is. And so you put that all together, the 1034 00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:04,279 Speaker 1: fact that it's cheap, the overall societal impact, and you know, 1035 00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:05,799 Speaker 1: we're going to be living with this for a really 1036 00:56:05,800 --> 00:56:08,879 Speaker 1: long time to come, health wise, but society wise too. 1037 00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:11,200 Speaker 1: This really changes kind of the makeup of like who 1038 00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:14,960 Speaker 1: we are. It's it's really sad because and it was 1039 00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:18,840 Speaker 1: also very predictable because when you think about it, like, Okay, 1040 00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:21,960 Speaker 1: you're not going to gym glass anymore. You know, you're 1041 00:56:21,960 --> 00:56:24,040 Speaker 1: not getting out of the house and moving around even 1042 00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:26,440 Speaker 1: just to walk between classes and go to gym class 1043 00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:30,240 Speaker 1: and have that just like daily exercise and movement built 1044 00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:34,000 Speaker 1: into your schedule. So that's gone. You're sitting at home. 1045 00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:38,000 Speaker 1: If you know, if your parents, especially are financially stressed. 1046 00:56:38,040 --> 00:56:41,840 Speaker 1: It's not just what's easiest and can fit most readily 1047 00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:44,279 Speaker 1: into a super busy life where you're just trying to 1048 00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:47,239 Speaker 1: keep body and soul together. It's also what's cheapest, so 1049 00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:50,600 Speaker 1: that's what's there for you, whereas listening to school one's 1050 00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:52,560 Speaker 1: just no great shape. I ain't say it was great, 1051 00:56:53,600 --> 00:56:57,799 Speaker 1: but there's at least some requirements about nutritional value. And 1052 00:56:57,880 --> 00:57:01,279 Speaker 1: also it's just it's structured so during the day you 1053 00:57:01,640 --> 00:57:04,120 Speaker 1: only that's your only opportunity to eat, so you don't 1054 00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:07,520 Speaker 1: have this ability to just grab whatsever around whenever it's around. 1055 00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:10,000 Speaker 1: I mean, I think anybody who's shifted from like office 1056 00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:11,799 Speaker 1: work to working at home or had a time when 1057 00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:13,839 Speaker 1: they had to be at home for whatever reason, can 1058 00:57:13,920 --> 00:57:17,000 Speaker 1: relate to suddenly you start thinking about food all day long. 1059 00:57:17,080 --> 00:57:19,720 Speaker 1: Because you just are there and it's right there, and 1060 00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:22,480 Speaker 1: then you layer on top of that the stress of 1061 00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:25,360 Speaker 1: all of this, the stress of routines radically changing, the 1062 00:57:25,400 --> 00:57:28,800 Speaker 1: stress of being very fearful of a dangerous disease. All 1063 00:57:28,840 --> 00:57:33,360 Speaker 1: of these factors major contributors that again, very predictable that 1064 00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:37,160 Speaker 1: this would be the incredibly sad and regardable outcome, because, 1065 00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:42,400 Speaker 1: like you said, especially weight that is gained in childhood 1066 00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:47,720 Speaker 1: and young adulthood, very very difficult to ever overcome that 1067 00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:51,560 Speaker 1: extremely these are critical years, and so if you start 1068 00:57:51,600 --> 00:57:54,320 Speaker 1: off on the wrong track, it's not impossible. You prove 1069 00:57:54,400 --> 00:57:58,640 Speaker 1: that certainly, but it's very difficult. I mean you work 1070 00:57:58,720 --> 00:58:01,280 Speaker 1: really really hard at it. No, No No, you were every 1071 00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:05,840 Speaker 1: day really hard to maintain where you are. So it 1072 00:58:06,000 --> 00:58:08,520 Speaker 1: just brings me back to a monologue I think I 1073 00:58:08,560 --> 00:58:12,080 Speaker 1: did this monologue while you were ound actually about how 1074 00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:16,680 Speaker 1: there was this assumption that an abundance of caution came 1075 00:58:16,720 --> 00:58:19,760 Speaker 1: with no costs, that the only costs were if you 1076 00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:23,960 Speaker 1: weren't cautious enough, and there was you know, increased viral spread, etc. 1077 00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:26,439 Speaker 1: But there were costs on the other side of being 1078 00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:29,200 Speaker 1: too cautious. Now, look, I think at the beginning of 1079 00:58:29,200 --> 00:58:32,600 Speaker 1: the pandemic before we knew what the impact was on 1080 00:58:32,760 --> 00:58:34,760 Speaker 1: kids and how at risk they were. I think it 1081 00:58:34,800 --> 00:58:36,880 Speaker 1: was very understandable, and I can tell you as a 1082 00:58:36,920 --> 00:58:39,760 Speaker 1: parent it was I pulled my kids out of school 1083 00:58:39,920 --> 00:58:42,600 Speaker 1: even before the school shut down because you just didn't 1084 00:58:42,680 --> 00:58:46,520 Speaker 1: know what the risk was. But once we did find out, 1085 00:58:46,880 --> 00:58:49,880 Speaker 1: there wasn't an adjustment for the fact that you're going 1086 00:58:49,960 --> 00:58:52,840 Speaker 1: to have weight great gain, You're going to have increased addiction, 1087 00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:55,080 Speaker 1: you're going to have increased depression, you're going to have 1088 00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:59,000 Speaker 1: increased suicide. You're going to have millions of kids who 1089 00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:03,040 Speaker 1: just have a completely lost year of school at least 1090 00:59:03,440 --> 00:59:06,720 Speaker 1: where that's going to set them back for their entire life. 1091 00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:09,600 Speaker 1: Because again, these are if you're talking about kindergarten, first grade, 1092 00:59:09,640 --> 00:59:13,440 Speaker 1: sec these are critical years that if you lose down, 1093 00:59:13,560 --> 00:59:15,520 Speaker 1: you get behind you guys know how it works. Then 1094 00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:19,040 Speaker 1: you get tracked in a certain direction and you're always 1095 00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:21,840 Speaker 1: one step behind where you should have been, and that's 1096 00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:24,360 Speaker 1: the way the system comes to view view you, and 1097 00:59:24,440 --> 00:59:28,320 Speaker 1: it's again very difficult to overcome. So, like I said, 1098 00:59:28,520 --> 00:59:31,520 Speaker 1: I think at the beginning, it was really understandable that 1099 00:59:31,600 --> 00:59:33,720 Speaker 1: people just said, look, we got to keep these kids safe, 1100 00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:35,160 Speaker 1: and yeah, they are a cost, but that's what we're 1101 00:59:35,200 --> 00:59:38,760 Speaker 1: going to do. But over time we lost sight of 1102 00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:42,160 Speaker 1: the fact that if you do have this consistent abundance 1103 00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:45,560 Speaker 1: of caution approach, that there are costs, that they are 1104 00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:49,160 Speaker 1: really significant, and that they should be weighed and considered 1105 00:59:49,720 --> 00:59:53,200 Speaker 1: just as sort of with just as much significance as 1106 00:59:53,360 --> 00:59:55,200 Speaker 1: the costs and the rest of the pandemic. And I 1107 00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:57,320 Speaker 1: just never saw that adjustment happen. And we're seeing some 1108 00:59:57,360 --> 00:59:59,680 Speaker 1: of the fallout very sadly, we are not seeing that happen. 1109 01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:02,240 Speaker 1: If anything, there's been an escalation. We have to do 1110 01:00:02,360 --> 01:00:05,240 Speaker 1: everything we have can to keep children in school. I 1111 01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:08,080 Speaker 1: don't even you know, however, stringent, whatever, but it has 1112 01:00:08,120 --> 01:00:10,720 Speaker 1: to happen. As you're pointing to, I mean, think about 1113 01:00:10,720 --> 01:00:12,720 Speaker 1: it too. A lot of these kids, even little kids, 1114 01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:14,200 Speaker 1: had to sit in front of a computer all day. 1115 01:00:14,280 --> 01:00:16,520 Speaker 1: You think that's healthy, Go ask anybody who's ever worked 1116 01:00:16,560 --> 01:00:19,160 Speaker 1: a cubicle job whether that's good. You don't have recess, 1117 01:00:19,320 --> 01:00:22,560 Speaker 1: you don't have the same gym class. Many people also 1118 01:00:22,800 --> 01:00:27,720 Speaker 1: lost their support systems through workouts in terms of school sports. 1119 01:00:27,880 --> 01:00:30,960 Speaker 1: That was a very key part for many people who 1120 01:00:31,040 --> 01:00:35,440 Speaker 1: develop healthy habits throughout their lives. Now, that's a support 1121 01:00:35,520 --> 01:00:38,400 Speaker 1: system which has been completely lost. So this has been 1122 01:00:38,520 --> 01:00:42,400 Speaker 1: a major societal cost which is completely undercovered right now 1123 01:00:42,440 --> 01:00:45,880 Speaker 1: except by you know, maybe Fox because of the lockdowns whatever. 1124 01:00:46,080 --> 01:00:48,040 Speaker 1: We need to be able to talk about this with 1125 01:00:48,120 --> 01:00:51,280 Speaker 1: any without any of this culture war nonsense and just 1126 01:00:51,360 --> 01:00:54,520 Speaker 1: start from the very basic premise of this is a 1127 01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:57,240 Speaker 1: really big problem. And as you said, yeah, we can 1128 01:00:57,280 --> 01:00:59,480 Speaker 1: forgive it maybe you know, in the first couple of months, 1129 01:00:59,640 --> 01:01:02,640 Speaker 1: five something like that, but after that it was starting 1130 01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:04,920 Speaker 1: to become pretty clear and there was a choice to 1131 01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:08,040 Speaker 1: be made. Everything has a choice, Everything has you know, 1132 01:01:08,120 --> 01:01:11,400 Speaker 1: one every every action is an equal and opposite reaction, 1133 01:01:11,600 --> 01:01:14,840 Speaker 1: and the reaction is not having any discussion right now 1134 01:01:14,840 --> 01:01:16,880 Speaker 1: in the mainstream. Yeah. I mean I think about my 1135 01:01:16,920 --> 01:01:19,760 Speaker 1: own kids, who have almost every privilege you can imagine, 1136 01:01:19,800 --> 01:01:22,240 Speaker 1: except we have really really crappy internet at our house. 1137 01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:24,440 Speaker 1: See that's a good thing, that is one thing. It 1138 01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:27,240 Speaker 1: is good in certain regards. But it did make virtual 1139 01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:30,080 Speaker 1: schooling a little bit challenging. Yeah, but it was hard 1140 01:01:30,120 --> 01:01:32,920 Speaker 1: on my kids. I mean, my daughter who was twelve 1141 01:01:33,720 --> 01:01:35,760 Speaker 1: during the you know year that she was out of school. 1142 01:01:35,840 --> 01:01:39,520 Speaker 1: She's a very extroverted person. To have those social networks 1143 01:01:39,520 --> 01:01:41,840 Speaker 1: cut off, and also just it was hard for her 1144 01:01:41,880 --> 01:01:45,040 Speaker 1: to learn outside of the classroom online. It's hard for 1145 01:01:45,080 --> 01:01:47,080 Speaker 1: anyone to do that, and especially if you are a 1146 01:01:47,120 --> 01:01:50,680 Speaker 1: certain type of learner. My son was seven. You know, again, 1147 01:01:50,760 --> 01:01:53,080 Speaker 1: these are really important years. He's a little boy, he's 1148 01:01:53,120 --> 01:01:56,960 Speaker 1: got tons of energy, and he's distractable and all of that. 1149 01:01:57,040 --> 01:01:58,560 Speaker 1: Like for him to sit in front of a computer 1150 01:01:58,600 --> 01:02:01,200 Speaker 1: all day, it was tough. And those were like the 1151 01:02:01,240 --> 01:02:04,640 Speaker 1: best possible circumstances, and there was definitely a toll that 1152 01:02:04,720 --> 01:02:08,040 Speaker 1: was paid by my kids. I can only imagine what 1153 01:02:08,200 --> 01:02:12,400 Speaker 1: the case was for kids whose parents are super stressed, 1154 01:02:12,440 --> 01:02:15,160 Speaker 1: trying to work multiple jobs, single mom. All of those 1155 01:02:15,200 --> 01:02:20,320 Speaker 1: situations just layer on top of that additional burdens, additional difficulties, 1156 01:02:20,400 --> 01:02:24,160 Speaker 1: and of course the cost fell most heavily on the 1157 01:02:24,200 --> 01:02:27,200 Speaker 1: most vulnerable kids who have not only do they of 1158 01:02:27,240 --> 01:02:29,280 Speaker 1: course not have a voice in the halls of Congress, 1159 01:02:29,280 --> 01:02:31,080 Speaker 1: but their parents don't have a voice in the halls 1160 01:02:31,120 --> 01:02:36,240 Speaker 1: of Congress, so those costs have been largely ignored completely. Agree. Wow, 1161 01:02:36,400 --> 01:02:38,440 Speaker 1: you guys must really like listening to our voices. Well, 1162 01:02:38,440 --> 01:02:40,439 Speaker 1: I know this is annoying. Instead of making you listen 1163 01:02:40,480 --> 01:02:43,000 Speaker 1: to a Viagra commercial. When you're done, check out the 1164 01:02:43,040 --> 01:02:45,800 Speaker 1: other podcast I do with Martial Costs Off called The Realignment. 1165 01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:47,840 Speaker 1: We talk a lot about the deeper issues that are 1166 01:02:47,920 --> 01:02:51,360 Speaker 1: changing realigning in American society. You always need more crystal 1167 01:02:51,360 --> 01:02:54,320 Speaker 1: and Sag in your daily lives. Take care guys, All right, Sager, 1168 01:02:54,400 --> 01:02:57,040 Speaker 1: what are you looking at? Well? Perhaps no public messaging 1169 01:02:57,080 --> 01:03:01,200 Speaker 1: campaign has defied rationality, been as idiot and generally been 1170 01:03:01,280 --> 01:03:03,840 Speaker 1: all over the map more than the public health establishment 1171 01:03:03,880 --> 01:03:07,080 Speaker 1: since the beginning of the pandemic. First coronavirus we were 1172 01:03:07,080 --> 01:03:09,320 Speaker 1: told was not airborne, so we should not wear masks 1173 01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:11,720 Speaker 1: and we should wash our hands all the time. Then 1174 01:03:11,880 --> 01:03:13,880 Speaker 1: that wasn't quite right. We had the social distance for 1175 01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:17,640 Speaker 1: two weeks to stop the spread. Then actually it is airborne, 1176 01:03:17,680 --> 01:03:20,760 Speaker 1: so do wear a mask. Also, the stuff is still closed. 1177 01:03:20,960 --> 01:03:25,360 Speaker 1: Also surface transmission is still possible. Then surface transmission clearly 1178 01:03:25,480 --> 01:03:29,080 Speaker 1: isn't possible. Mass work. Now we have a vaccine which 1179 01:03:29,120 --> 01:03:32,280 Speaker 1: does prevent hospitalization and death, but let's all be honest, 1180 01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:35,040 Speaker 1: it does not prevent infection at nearly the rate that 1181 01:03:35,240 --> 01:03:38,480 Speaker 1: many people were led to believe several months ago. I 1182 01:03:38,560 --> 01:03:41,640 Speaker 1: myself can obviously attest to that, having gotten COVID after 1183 01:03:41,680 --> 01:03:44,480 Speaker 1: being fully vaccinated. Crystal and I have also brought you 1184 01:03:44,520 --> 01:03:47,880 Speaker 1: the news about booster shots, how the Biden administration announced 1185 01:03:47,920 --> 01:03:51,720 Speaker 1: that they would be necessary for everybody until then, the 1186 01:03:51,800 --> 01:03:55,800 Speaker 1: FDA itself rejected those plans, and senior officials within the 1187 01:03:55,840 --> 01:03:59,520 Speaker 1: agency literally resigned out of protest. In short, it's been 1188 01:03:59,560 --> 01:04:02,720 Speaker 1: a real month. Parsing what's true what's not has been 1189 01:04:02,760 --> 01:04:06,680 Speaker 1: extraordinarily difficult, which is why, after nearly eighteen months of this, 1190 01:04:07,040 --> 01:04:09,400 Speaker 1: my position is that everything should be on the table 1191 01:04:09,440 --> 01:04:13,760 Speaker 1: for discussion, especially amidst the Biden administration's new mandate that 1192 01:04:13,880 --> 01:04:16,600 Speaker 1: all businesses who employ or more than one hundred people 1193 01:04:16,920 --> 01:04:20,240 Speaker 1: have to either require a vaccine or regular testing and 1194 01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:24,160 Speaker 1: paid time off. Such a measure requires the ability to 1195 01:04:24,320 --> 01:04:27,080 Speaker 1: answer the questions of millions of those who are skeptical, 1196 01:04:27,360 --> 01:04:29,439 Speaker 1: and one of the chief ones that I've heard is this, 1197 01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:33,720 Speaker 1: but what if I already got COVID? Natural immunity has 1198 01:04:33,800 --> 01:04:36,920 Speaker 1: been shown to be just as effective, if not more so, 1199 01:04:37,360 --> 01:04:40,800 Speaker 1: at defending against future infection from COVID in addition to 1200 01:04:40,840 --> 01:04:44,760 Speaker 1: hospitalization and death. Should that not be taken into account? Note, 1201 01:04:44,920 --> 01:04:47,160 Speaker 1: it is not just a crank or a pundit like 1202 01:04:47,240 --> 01:04:50,000 Speaker 1: me who was asking this. The very day of Biden's 1203 01:04:50,000 --> 01:04:54,320 Speaker 1: policy was announced, doctor Sanjay Gupta, CNN asked doctor Fauci 1204 01:04:54,400 --> 01:04:56,760 Speaker 1: if an exception should be made. Here was his answer, 1205 01:04:58,680 --> 01:05:01,400 Speaker 1: and just real quickly, there was a study that came 1206 01:05:01,440 --> 01:05:05,360 Speaker 1: out of Israel about natural immunity, and basically the headline 1207 01:05:05,440 --> 01:05:08,400 Speaker 1: was that natural immunity provides a lot of protection, even 1208 01:05:08,440 --> 01:05:13,400 Speaker 1: better than the vaccines alone. What are people to make 1209 01:05:13,440 --> 01:05:16,760 Speaker 1: of that? So as we talk about vaccine mandates, there 1210 01:05:16,360 --> 01:05:18,600 Speaker 1: are I get calls all the time people say I've 1211 01:05:18,600 --> 01:05:22,280 Speaker 1: already had COVID, I'm protected, And now the study says 1212 01:05:22,360 --> 01:05:25,400 Speaker 1: maybe even more protected than the vaccine alone, should they 1213 01:05:25,480 --> 01:05:27,360 Speaker 1: also get the vaccine? How do you make the case 1214 01:05:27,400 --> 01:05:31,520 Speaker 1: to them? You know, that's a really good point, son, Jay, 1215 01:05:31,560 --> 01:05:34,120 Speaker 1: I don't have a really firm answer feel on that. 1216 01:05:34,120 --> 01:05:37,520 Speaker 1: That's something that we're going to have to discuss regarding 1217 01:05:37,520 --> 01:05:42,160 Speaker 1: the durability of the response. So he has got no answer. 1218 01:05:42,320 --> 01:05:44,760 Speaker 1: Even worse, when Vacci was pressed this weekend by natural 1219 01:05:44,800 --> 01:05:47,840 Speaker 1: Immunity by Meet the Press, he actually admitted people who 1220 01:05:47,840 --> 01:05:51,080 Speaker 1: get COVID have stronger immunity and that their immunity is 1221 01:05:51,160 --> 01:05:53,800 Speaker 1: higher than two doses of a vaccine. But his only 1222 01:05:53,880 --> 01:05:57,160 Speaker 1: caveat is that the durability of immunity is unclear. But 1223 01:05:57,240 --> 01:05:59,400 Speaker 1: for those of us who are honest in pro vaccine, 1224 01:05:59,480 --> 01:06:01,800 Speaker 1: we also know that the answer to the longevity of 1225 01:06:01,880 --> 01:06:05,439 Speaker 1: vaccine protection is also up in the air. Hence all 1226 01:06:05,480 --> 01:06:08,600 Speaker 1: of the discussion of booster shots. This is the problem 1227 01:06:08,640 --> 01:06:11,320 Speaker 1: with this type of public messaging. It is clear that 1228 01:06:11,360 --> 01:06:14,320 Speaker 1: the public health officials want everyone to be vaccinated great 1229 01:06:14,520 --> 01:06:16,720 Speaker 1: I agree with them one hundred percent. The fact of 1230 01:06:16,760 --> 01:06:19,320 Speaker 1: the matter, though, is that natural immunity is great, but 1231 01:06:19,480 --> 01:06:21,880 Speaker 1: to get it you have to get COVID, and for 1232 01:06:21,960 --> 01:06:25,320 Speaker 1: a small subset of our population, getting COVID is a 1233 01:06:25,360 --> 01:06:28,280 Speaker 1: death sentence. Just asked the fifteen hundred or so people 1234 01:06:28,400 --> 01:06:32,360 Speaker 1: who died in the United States yesterday. Clearly, getting a vaccine, 1235 01:06:32,520 --> 01:06:35,880 Speaker 1: which over a billion people have gotten and provides protection 1236 01:06:35,960 --> 01:06:39,680 Speaker 1: from infection and assurance of zero death or minimal hospitalization 1237 01:06:39,760 --> 01:06:43,760 Speaker 1: in case of infection is a far better option. Yet, 1238 01:06:44,040 --> 01:06:46,680 Speaker 1: for those of us who are pro vaccine, we have 1239 01:06:46,760 --> 01:06:49,560 Speaker 1: to listen to people and be honest about what the 1240 01:06:49,560 --> 01:06:53,080 Speaker 1: facts are. Marty Mcarey, he's a professor at Johns Hopkins 1241 01:06:53,200 --> 01:06:56,280 Speaker 1: Medical School, made this point in the Washington Post of 1242 01:06:56,320 --> 01:07:00,480 Speaker 1: all places, he writes, quote. One reason public health officials 1243 01:07:00,840 --> 01:07:03,840 Speaker 1: may be afraid to acknowledge the effectiveness of natural immunity 1244 01:07:04,120 --> 01:07:06,480 Speaker 1: is they fear it will lead to some to choose 1245 01:07:06,480 --> 01:07:10,520 Speaker 1: getting an infection over vaccination. That's a legitimate concern, But 1246 01:07:10,960 --> 01:07:14,240 Speaker 1: we can encourage all Americans to get vaccinated while being 1247 01:07:14,320 --> 01:07:18,800 Speaker 1: honest about the data. He adds, importantly, in my clinical experience, 1248 01:07:18,880 --> 01:07:21,880 Speaker 1: I have found patients to be extremely forgiving with evolving 1249 01:07:22,000 --> 01:07:25,080 Speaker 1: data if you are honest and transparent with them. Yet, 1250 01:07:25,200 --> 01:07:28,320 Speaker 1: when asked the common question I've recovered from COVID, is 1251 01:07:28,320 --> 01:07:31,600 Speaker 1: it absolutely essential I get vaccinated? Many public health officials 1252 01:07:31,680 --> 01:07:35,320 Speaker 1: have put aside the data and responded with the synchronized yes, 1253 01:07:35,720 --> 01:07:39,520 Speaker 1: even as studies have shown that reinfections are rare, often asymptomatic, 1254 01:07:39,600 --> 01:07:42,320 Speaker 1: or mild when they do occur. That is very well said. 1255 01:07:42,560 --> 01:07:44,640 Speaker 1: If you liked it, maybe you would be compelled to 1256 01:07:44,720 --> 01:07:47,960 Speaker 1: share it on social media. There's just one problem. As 1257 01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:50,840 Speaker 1: we have seen now repeatedly, big tech companies have taken 1258 01:07:50,880 --> 01:07:54,120 Speaker 1: it upon themselves to be enforcers of the public health establishment, 1259 01:07:54,320 --> 01:07:56,920 Speaker 1: despite their own past lives on the lab leaku theory, 1260 01:07:57,200 --> 01:07:59,600 Speaker 1: mass and so much more. Many users brought to my 1261 01:07:59,640 --> 01:08:02,600 Speaker 1: attention over the weekend that Instagram has actually taken in 1262 01:08:02,680 --> 01:08:07,200 Speaker 1: upon itself to ban hashtag natural immunity on their platform, 1263 01:08:07,560 --> 01:08:10,280 Speaker 1: So look as usual, this is the problem. At the 1264 01:08:10,320 --> 01:08:13,320 Speaker 1: beginning of the pandemic, Instagram and these platforms had a 1265 01:08:13,400 --> 01:08:17,080 Speaker 1: huge issue. Some people are actually saying some crazy stuff 1266 01:08:17,320 --> 01:08:20,839 Speaker 1: like Bill Gates is implanting microchips into people. That stuff 1267 01:08:20,920 --> 01:08:23,400 Speaker 1: is easy to take down, But then it became clear 1268 01:08:23,720 --> 01:08:26,240 Speaker 1: that they would have to take down whatever they thought 1269 01:08:26,400 --> 01:08:30,240 Speaker 1: to be true, or even more dangerously, what the establishment 1270 01:08:30,520 --> 01:08:34,760 Speaker 1: wished to be true, not what was actually true itself. 1271 01:08:35,080 --> 01:08:37,320 Speaker 1: By doing that, they put us on the road to hell. 1272 01:08:38,000 --> 01:08:41,680 Speaker 1: Now some people can legitimately point to the fact that Instagram, 1273 01:08:41,880 --> 01:08:45,400 Speaker 1: the media and more are actually ignored for science in 1274 01:08:45,439 --> 01:08:48,840 Speaker 1: the goal of getting people vaccinated, when the entire case 1275 01:08:49,040 --> 01:08:52,519 Speaker 1: for immunization and exit from the pandemic should instead have 1276 01:08:52,640 --> 01:08:57,280 Speaker 1: been scientifically based all along. And here's what's worse. Discussion 1277 01:08:57,320 --> 01:09:00,760 Speaker 1: of natural immunity does not in any way preclude vaccination. 1278 01:09:01,080 --> 01:09:03,479 Speaker 1: If anything, it actually shows us a great way out 1279 01:09:03,479 --> 01:09:06,080 Speaker 1: of the pandemic. If we must insist on a policy 1280 01:09:06,080 --> 01:09:09,760 Speaker 1: of checking people's status, you can combine the vaccinated population 1281 01:09:10,080 --> 01:09:12,840 Speaker 1: with those who have natural immunity would give us a 1282 01:09:12,880 --> 01:09:16,800 Speaker 1: better overall picture of our level of herd immunity. And 1283 01:09:16,840 --> 01:09:19,759 Speaker 1: if somebody really prefers getting COVID, which is a virus 1284 01:09:19,800 --> 01:09:22,320 Speaker 1: where you'll probably be fine, but you know, anything could 1285 01:09:22,320 --> 01:09:25,160 Speaker 1: happen to a vaccine that's been administered with no real 1286 01:09:25,160 --> 01:09:27,479 Speaker 1: problems to a billion and a half people. You know, 1287 01:09:28,160 --> 01:09:30,720 Speaker 1: that's on them. At this point, it's time for some 1288 01:09:30,840 --> 01:09:33,800 Speaker 1: actual honesty in this discussion, because it's the only way 1289 01:09:33,800 --> 01:09:36,000 Speaker 1: out of this nightmare. And it's interesting, Crystal. You know, 1290 01:09:36,040 --> 01:09:41,080 Speaker 1: I was reading doctor McCarey's paper and one more thing, 1291 01:09:41,120 --> 01:09:43,559 Speaker 1: I promise, just wanted to make sure you knew about 1292 01:09:43,560 --> 01:09:46,880 Speaker 1: my podcast with Kyle Kolinski. It's called Crystal, Kyle and Friends, 1293 01:09:46,880 --> 01:09:49,839 Speaker 1: where we do long form interviews with people like Noam Chomsky, 1294 01:09:49,960 --> 01:09:53,240 Speaker 1: Cornell West, and Glenn Greenwald. You can listen on any 1295 01:09:53,280 --> 01:09:56,680 Speaker 1: podcast platform, or you can subscribe over on substack to 1296 01:09:56,680 --> 01:09:59,040 Speaker 1: get the video a day early. We're gonna stop bugging 1297 01:09:59,040 --> 01:10:02,479 Speaker 1: you now. Enjoy Crystal. What are you taking a look at? Well? 1298 01:10:02,520 --> 01:10:05,599 Speaker 1: Democrats have decided that they are not going to really 1299 01:10:05,640 --> 01:10:09,040 Speaker 1: tax the rich and may even hand another tax break 1300 01:10:09,080 --> 01:10:12,599 Speaker 1: to the well off. That is obviously a stunning reversal 1301 01:10:12,600 --> 01:10:15,519 Speaker 1: from a party that routinely pretends to care about progressive 1302 01:10:15,520 --> 01:10:20,040 Speaker 1: taxation and breaking up dynastic wealth. AOC's met Gallagh Dress 1303 01:10:20,120 --> 01:10:22,479 Speaker 1: could not be reached for comment. All right, so here 1304 01:10:22,520 --> 01:10:24,400 Speaker 1: is the background on all of this. First of all, 1305 01:10:24,479 --> 01:10:27,519 Speaker 1: you guys know, this outrageous wealth has never been at 1306 01:10:27,560 --> 01:10:31,639 Speaker 1: more grotesque levels. US billionaires got sixty two percent richer 1307 01:10:31,800 --> 01:10:35,240 Speaker 1: during the pandemic, even as normal people lost their jobs, 1308 01:10:35,280 --> 01:10:38,000 Speaker 1: their businesses, their savings, and more. To give you a sense, 1309 01:10:38,080 --> 01:10:41,679 Speaker 1: the amount of wealth billionaires gained in one single year 1310 01:10:42,200 --> 01:10:44,559 Speaker 1: would pay for half of the three and nat trillion 1311 01:10:44,560 --> 01:10:48,040 Speaker 1: dollars social spending that Bernie and Biden have proposed. Second, 1312 01:10:48,080 --> 01:10:51,400 Speaker 1: of all, because this gilded age on steroid situation is 1313 01:10:51,479 --> 01:10:56,799 Speaker 1: so manifestly disgusting, taxing the rich is really quite politically popular. 1314 01:10:57,000 --> 01:10:59,559 Speaker 1: New York Times highlighted a range of polls showing support 1315 01:10:59,640 --> 01:11:02,519 Speaker 1: for the IA they emphasize, in particular APE Research poll 1316 01:11:02,600 --> 01:11:05,080 Speaker 1: finding many more Americans are concerned that the rich do 1317 01:11:05,200 --> 01:11:08,040 Speaker 1: not pay their fair share than those who are upset 1318 01:11:08,080 --> 01:11:10,800 Speaker 1: about the size of their own personal tax bill. A 1319 01:11:10,800 --> 01:11:13,480 Speaker 1: new analysis also just came out looking at the popularity 1320 01:11:13,520 --> 01:11:17,360 Speaker 1: of various provisions of the Democrats reconciliation bill, and taxing 1321 01:11:17,439 --> 01:11:20,759 Speaker 1: rich people ranked near the top in terms of levels 1322 01:11:20,840 --> 01:11:25,120 Speaker 1: of support. Provisions that would require corporations actually pay taxes, 1323 01:11:25,520 --> 01:11:28,439 Speaker 1: increasing the capital gains rate, and upping taxes on the 1324 01:11:28,479 --> 01:11:32,400 Speaker 1: top two percent, they all enjoyed more than seventy percent 1325 01:11:32,520 --> 01:11:37,040 Speaker 1: support among the population. That is huge. We also know 1326 01:11:37,600 --> 01:11:40,600 Speaker 1: that the Democratic Party is well aware of the popularity 1327 01:11:40,640 --> 01:11:44,000 Speaker 1: of taxing the rich. Top Democratic pollster John Ans alone 1328 01:11:44,040 --> 01:11:46,760 Speaker 1: he was practically begging the Biden administration to lean into 1329 01:11:46,800 --> 01:11:49,800 Speaker 1: a message about taxing the rich. He told Axios that 1330 01:11:49,840 --> 01:11:53,480 Speaker 1: Biden quote should make raising taxes on the wealthy incorporations 1331 01:11:53,520 --> 01:11:57,040 Speaker 1: a standout feature of his messaging rather than a necessary 1332 01:11:57,120 --> 01:12:00,360 Speaker 1: evil to fund his three trillion plus spending plans. So 1333 01:12:00,400 --> 01:12:04,479 Speaker 1: there's a massive need. It's extremely popular. Democrats know that 1334 01:12:04,520 --> 01:12:08,280 Speaker 1: it's extremely popular. So are they going to actually do it? Nah, 1335 01:12:08,439 --> 01:12:10,840 Speaker 1: don't think so. In the time it is taken to 1336 01:12:10,840 --> 01:12:13,240 Speaker 1: get the reconciliation bill moving and come up with hard 1337 01:12:13,280 --> 01:12:16,720 Speaker 1: proposals with regard to the pay fours, lobbyists have been 1338 01:12:16,760 --> 01:12:19,000 Speaker 1: able to do their dirty work. They have water down 1339 01:12:19,040 --> 01:12:22,679 Speaker 1: Biden's original proposals. They've erased altogether the ones that actually 1340 01:12:22,680 --> 01:12:26,599 Speaker 1: had real teeth, and they have simultaneously resuscitated a tax 1341 01:12:26,640 --> 01:12:29,040 Speaker 1: break for the wealthy. The end result of all of 1342 01:12:29,080 --> 01:12:31,360 Speaker 1: this is that now we are looking at a situation 1343 01:12:31,400 --> 01:12:33,960 Speaker 1: where some well off Americans would pay even less in 1344 01:12:34,040 --> 01:12:37,280 Speaker 1: taxes under Biden than they did under Trump. That's right. 1345 01:12:37,600 --> 01:12:41,320 Speaker 1: The current Democratic position flirts with a tax cut for 1346 01:12:41,400 --> 01:12:44,760 Speaker 1: the wealthy at a time of the most inextreme inequality 1347 01:12:44,800 --> 01:12:48,400 Speaker 1: in history. So here's that data and analysis. As you know, 1348 01:12:48,600 --> 01:12:51,800 Speaker 1: Democrats want to reinstitute the salt tax break as part 1349 01:12:51,840 --> 01:12:55,400 Speaker 1: of the reconciliation package, a move that Bloomberg writes would 1350 01:12:55,479 --> 01:12:58,000 Speaker 1: erase most of the House as tax hikes for the 1351 01:12:58,040 --> 01:13:01,800 Speaker 1: one percent. Here is the lead graph. High earning taxpayers 1352 01:13:01,800 --> 01:13:05,680 Speaker 1: would face much smaller tax hikes or even cuts if 1353 01:13:05,720 --> 01:13:08,640 Speaker 1: Democrats decide to restore the federal deduction for state and 1354 01:13:08,680 --> 01:13:11,800 Speaker 1: local taxes in legislation that is now moving through the House. 1355 01:13:12,520 --> 01:13:14,640 Speaker 1: There is, though, a more under the radar change that 1356 01:13:14,760 --> 01:13:17,479 Speaker 1: is also extremely important and I wanted to highlight. So. 1357 01:13:17,600 --> 01:13:20,519 Speaker 1: Last week, the highly influential Houseways and Means Committee, they 1358 01:13:20,560 --> 01:13:23,280 Speaker 1: put out their proposal for what taxes to use to 1359 01:13:23,320 --> 01:13:27,240 Speaker 1: pay for Biden's reconciliation package, and effectively the plan gives 1360 01:13:27,280 --> 01:13:31,200 Speaker 1: a multi trillion dollar pass to the wealthiest Americans. The 1361 01:13:31,200 --> 01:13:34,960 Speaker 1: committee focused on lifting taxes on income, including a surcharge 1362 01:13:34,960 --> 01:13:38,000 Speaker 1: on income over five million dollars. But of course the 1363 01:13:38,040 --> 01:13:41,720 Speaker 1: wealthiest people they don't actually really earn income. Instead, they 1364 01:13:41,720 --> 01:13:44,280 Speaker 1: either have capital gains or they engage any strategy like 1365 01:13:44,360 --> 01:13:48,799 Speaker 1: Elon Musk does. That strategy is called buy borrow die, 1366 01:13:48,960 --> 01:13:52,320 Speaker 1: and it effectively allows them to skirt taxes forever. Here's 1367 01:13:52,360 --> 01:13:55,360 Speaker 1: how it works. It's actually pretty straightforward. You buy an 1368 01:13:55,400 --> 01:13:57,640 Speaker 1: asset or a must case start a company. As that 1369 01:13:57,760 --> 01:14:00,760 Speaker 1: asset increases in value, run than sell it, which would 1370 01:14:00,760 --> 01:14:05,000 Speaker 1: trigger taxes, they borrow against it, avoiding taxes on their 1371 01:14:05,040 --> 01:14:09,840 Speaker 1: actual wealth for their entire lifetime. Then when they die, 1372 01:14:10,000 --> 01:14:13,280 Speaker 1: they can pass that asset to their heirs. Currently, a 1373 01:14:13,320 --> 01:14:15,519 Speaker 1: provision in the tax code called a step up basis 1374 01:14:15,560 --> 01:14:19,200 Speaker 1: allows those airs to avoid paying capital gains on any 1375 01:14:19,280 --> 01:14:22,120 Speaker 1: of the increase in value that happened for that asset 1376 01:14:22,160 --> 01:14:24,120 Speaker 1: over the lifetime of Musk or whoever it is that 1377 01:14:24,200 --> 01:14:27,880 Speaker 1: leaves it to them, So again, buy borrow die. The 1378 01:14:28,040 --> 01:14:32,240 Speaker 1: end result is that this strategy routinely allows massive fortunes 1379 01:14:32,360 --> 01:14:36,920 Speaker 1: to escape taxation forever. Now, Biden had proposed ending this 1380 01:14:36,960 --> 01:14:40,200 Speaker 1: massive giveaway to the wealthiest Americans, a key driver of 1381 01:14:40,240 --> 01:14:42,720 Speaker 1: the sort of dynastic wealth that is so destructive to 1382 01:14:42,720 --> 01:14:46,000 Speaker 1: civil society and the basic notion of the American dream. 1383 01:14:46,439 --> 01:14:49,280 Speaker 1: But how Stems had other ideas. This was just one 1384 01:14:49,280 --> 01:14:52,200 Speaker 1: of the ideas for taxing wealth enclosing massive tax avoidance 1385 01:14:52,200 --> 01:14:54,200 Speaker 1: loopholes that was stripped down in the Ways and Means 1386 01:14:54,240 --> 01:14:57,320 Speaker 1: Committee proposal. Now, I know this is wonky, but let 1387 01:14:57,320 --> 01:14:59,240 Speaker 1: me just say this really simply, if you care about 1388 01:14:59,240 --> 01:15:02,559 Speaker 1: an inequality and having basic buy into our society at all, 1389 01:15:02,960 --> 01:15:05,879 Speaker 1: you should care about taxing wealth, and in particular taxing 1390 01:15:06,160 --> 01:15:09,840 Speaker 1: massive inherited estates. When people feel like they're stuck in 1391 01:15:09,920 --> 01:15:12,080 Speaker 1: whatever class they were born into with no shot to 1392 01:15:12,080 --> 01:15:16,280 Speaker 1: get ahead, your society loses all legitimacy. When people feel, 1393 01:15:16,320 --> 01:15:18,559 Speaker 1: as they did after the financial crisis, that the rich 1394 01:15:18,720 --> 01:15:22,280 Speaker 1: escape all accountability and have completely bought the government, you 1395 01:15:22,479 --> 01:15:27,000 Speaker 1: end up with really ugly politics and seething unaddressed rage. 1396 01:15:27,040 --> 01:15:30,479 Speaker 1: That's what we've seen. These things are deadly serious. After all, 1397 01:15:31,000 --> 01:15:33,240 Speaker 1: nothing explains the screwed up state of our nation and 1398 01:15:33,240 --> 01:15:35,960 Speaker 1: our politics better than the fact that zero bankers were 1399 01:15:36,000 --> 01:15:38,760 Speaker 1: jailed for their crimes in two thousand and eight, and 1400 01:15:38,840 --> 01:15:41,600 Speaker 1: instead they just got richer than ever. One of the 1401 01:15:41,600 --> 01:15:44,280 Speaker 1: Democrats on the houseways and means, can they explain why 1402 01:15:44,280 --> 01:15:47,080 Speaker 1: their proposals were so timid and so milk toast, why 1403 01:15:47,120 --> 01:15:49,920 Speaker 1: they'd given the billionaire class exactly the tax plan that 1404 01:15:49,920 --> 01:15:53,160 Speaker 1: they were hoping for. Commerceome Bill Pascrell of New Jersey, 1405 01:15:53,200 --> 01:15:55,599 Speaker 1: who supports the salt tax repealed. By the way, he said, 1406 01:15:56,120 --> 01:15:58,920 Speaker 1: I am very suspect of a wealth tax. I think 1407 01:15:58,920 --> 01:16:02,160 Speaker 1: it's perceived as soak the rich. I don't think it is, 1408 01:16:02,280 --> 01:16:06,040 Speaker 1: but that's how it's perceived. While Congressman, if taxing wealth 1409 01:16:06,120 --> 01:16:08,559 Speaker 1: is seen by voters as soak the rich, that is 1410 01:16:08,720 --> 01:16:11,720 Speaker 1: all the more reason to do it, and sager, in 1411 01:16:11,760 --> 01:16:15,120 Speaker 1: spite of AOC's stress, it looks like democrats have basically 1412 01:16:15,640 --> 01:16:18,120 Speaker 1: joining us. Now we have the founder of the Daily Poster, 1413 01:16:18,160 --> 01:16:19,960 Speaker 1: the one and only David Starrota. Great to see sir, 1414 01:16:20,000 --> 01:16:21,720 Speaker 1: Good to see David. Good to see you, Good to 1415 01:16:21,720 --> 01:16:23,840 Speaker 1: see you. To start with, we were taking a look 1416 01:16:23,880 --> 01:16:27,120 Speaker 1: at your most recent piece at the Daily Poster about 1417 01:16:27,160 --> 01:16:31,040 Speaker 1: these corporate democrats who have just completely collapsed when it 1418 01:16:31,040 --> 01:16:36,439 Speaker 1: comes to drug price negotiations. Of course, this is something 1419 01:16:36,479 --> 01:16:40,120 Speaker 1: that Democrats have run on for literally more than a decade. 1420 01:16:40,640 --> 01:16:44,680 Speaker 1: It's something that even really super annoying moderate corporate Democrats 1421 01:16:44,680 --> 01:16:48,360 Speaker 1: like heresin Cinema ran on promising to lower prescription drug prices. 1422 01:16:48,439 --> 01:16:51,920 Speaker 1: It pulls it somewhere around ninety percent. Literally everyone supports it, 1423 01:16:51,960 --> 01:16:54,759 Speaker 1: except it seems for these obnoxious people and every Republican 1424 01:16:54,840 --> 01:16:59,080 Speaker 1: who also wouldn't back it. Yeah, yeah, that's exactly right. 1425 01:16:59,120 --> 01:17:03,080 Speaker 1: You basically nailed it, except you've got three House Democrats 1426 01:17:03,120 --> 01:17:06,599 Speaker 1: who voted to try to kill it. And those three 1427 01:17:06,640 --> 01:17:09,400 Speaker 1: House Democrats took a whole lot of money from the 1428 01:17:09,400 --> 01:17:15,000 Speaker 1: pharmaceutical industry and are now facing really angry constituents. The 1429 01:17:15,520 --> 01:17:19,720 Speaker 1: response and the justification that they're offering to their constituents 1430 01:17:20,040 --> 01:17:23,720 Speaker 1: is actually quite revealing. Especially Congressman Scott Peters from the 1431 01:17:23,720 --> 01:17:26,879 Speaker 1: San Diego area, who represents a very safe Democratic district. 1432 01:17:27,080 --> 01:17:30,880 Speaker 1: He was asked he's the number one recipient of pharmaceutical 1433 01:17:30,920 --> 01:17:33,720 Speaker 1: money in the entire United States House of Representatives in 1434 01:17:33,760 --> 01:17:36,200 Speaker 1: this election cycle, and his constituents are mad that he 1435 01:17:36,280 --> 01:17:39,120 Speaker 1: voted this way, and they asked him why he did this, 1436 01:17:39,280 --> 01:17:42,519 Speaker 1: and can he please stop taking so much pharmaceutical money, 1437 01:17:42,520 --> 01:17:45,720 Speaker 1: and he said no because he does not want to 1438 01:17:45,800 --> 01:17:49,599 Speaker 1: quote unilaterally disarm and to not take the money would 1439 01:17:49,640 --> 01:17:53,000 Speaker 1: mean quote it would be like quote defunding my campaign. 1440 01:17:53,240 --> 01:17:55,720 Speaker 1: Which is really revealing, isn't it, because it really kind 1441 01:17:55,720 --> 01:18:00,879 Speaker 1: of says he can't even imagine running a campaign, raising 1442 01:18:00,960 --> 01:18:05,719 Speaker 1: money in a grassroots way for a campaign without giant 1443 01:18:05,880 --> 01:18:08,559 Speaker 1: money from the pharmaceutical industry. I mean, it really is 1444 01:18:08,600 --> 01:18:13,479 Speaker 1: a window into how some of these lawmakers see the 1445 01:18:13,520 --> 01:18:18,200 Speaker 1: world and how they built their political their political careers. 1446 01:18:18,280 --> 01:18:21,240 Speaker 1: I mean, he is basically admitting he could not have 1447 01:18:21,360 --> 01:18:24,240 Speaker 1: the resources to run a campaign unless he raked in 1448 01:18:24,400 --> 01:18:27,960 Speaker 1: all of that pharmaceutical money. So, David, I mean, let's 1449 01:18:28,000 --> 01:18:31,320 Speaker 1: switch gears entirely to the entire Reconciliation bill. Let's put 1450 01:18:31,320 --> 01:18:34,519 Speaker 1: this up there on the screen cinema making some comments 1451 01:18:34,560 --> 01:18:37,400 Speaker 1: there about what exactly She says that if the House 1452 01:18:37,439 --> 01:18:40,840 Speaker 1: delays its schedule September twenty seven vote on the bipartisan 1453 01:18:40,840 --> 01:18:44,120 Speaker 1: Infrastructure Plan, or if that vote fails, she will not 1454 01:18:44,400 --> 01:18:47,639 Speaker 1: back the reconciliation bill. How serious are we to look 1455 01:18:47,680 --> 01:18:50,000 Speaker 1: at this? And if that's the case, David, doesn't this 1456 01:18:50,080 --> 01:18:54,200 Speaker 1: effectively mean the entire legislation is going down, and why 1457 01:18:54,280 --> 01:18:56,760 Speaker 1: is she doing this? I mean, I think if you 1458 01:18:57,120 --> 01:19:00,400 Speaker 1: believe that she will follow through on that, then then 1459 01:19:00,720 --> 01:19:03,640 Speaker 1: you're right than the entire reconciliation bill, which lets be 1460 01:19:03,640 --> 01:19:06,559 Speaker 1: clear that reconciliation Bill is a technical term. That's the 1461 01:19:06,760 --> 01:19:11,360 Speaker 1: entire Democratic Party agenda, the promises that were made in 1462 01:19:11,400 --> 01:19:15,040 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty campaign and before that. That's basically done 1463 01:19:15,080 --> 01:19:18,240 Speaker 1: because it is a fifty fifty Senate where any one 1464 01:19:18,360 --> 01:19:20,920 Speaker 1: senator if they joined with the Republicans to kill the 1465 01:19:20,960 --> 01:19:24,519 Speaker 1: Reconciliation Bill, that means it's over. So this is a 1466 01:19:24,560 --> 01:19:28,320 Speaker 1: game of chicken. And you've got the House Progressives who 1467 01:19:28,880 --> 01:19:31,880 Speaker 1: sixteen at least who have been on records saying we're 1468 01:19:31,920 --> 01:19:35,800 Speaker 1: not going to vote for the bipartisan business backed infrastructure 1469 01:19:35,800 --> 01:19:40,240 Speaker 1: bill unless it remains linked to the reconciliation bill. Now 1470 01:19:40,320 --> 01:19:43,120 Speaker 1: you can ask why would Cinema and people and someone 1471 01:19:43,120 --> 01:19:46,479 Speaker 1: like Joe Manchin threaten to kill the reconciliation bill. Well, 1472 01:19:46,680 --> 01:19:50,000 Speaker 1: we have a story coming out very soon about part 1473 01:19:50,000 --> 01:19:53,400 Speaker 1: of the reason that may be at work with Kirson 1474 01:19:53,439 --> 01:19:56,920 Speaker 1: Cinema when it comes to prescription drug prices and the 1475 01:19:56,920 --> 01:20:01,519 Speaker 1: pharmaceutical industry. But more broadly, you've seen this opposition be 1476 01:20:01,600 --> 01:20:05,560 Speaker 1: announced by these corporate Democrats almost immediately after. There was 1477 01:20:05,600 --> 01:20:08,880 Speaker 1: a big Washington Post story about this, almost immediately after, 1478 01:20:09,439 --> 01:20:14,800 Speaker 1: the collective power of corporate America began lobbying aggressively, an 1479 01:20:14,840 --> 01:20:19,599 Speaker 1: aggressive campaign to kill the Reconciliation bill. So, to my mind, 1480 01:20:19,880 --> 01:20:24,000 Speaker 1: it goes back to when money says jump, corporate Democrats 1481 01:20:24,040 --> 01:20:27,280 Speaker 1: say how high, and they're willing to do that even 1482 01:20:27,280 --> 01:20:32,680 Speaker 1: if it means destroying their own parties promised agenda. So 1483 01:20:33,160 --> 01:20:38,280 Speaker 1: the bet from progressives and also from Pelosi, who's been 1484 01:20:38,400 --> 01:20:41,519 Speaker 1: an unusual ally in some of this, at least to 1485 01:20:41,560 --> 01:20:45,599 Speaker 1: a certain extent, was that these corporate Democrats like Cinema 1486 01:20:45,640 --> 01:20:48,920 Speaker 1: and Mansion at al care so much about this bipartisan 1487 01:20:49,200 --> 01:20:53,960 Speaker 1: infrastructure deal that they won't blow that up. And if 1488 01:20:54,000 --> 01:20:58,240 Speaker 1: Progressives credibly threaten as they have to, withhold their votes 1489 01:20:58,240 --> 01:21:02,040 Speaker 1: from that biparson infrastructure deal causing it to tank, that 1490 01:21:02,040 --> 01:21:04,559 Speaker 1: that would be real leverage, That would be real power. 1491 01:21:04,920 --> 01:21:07,160 Speaker 1: Do you think they miscalculated here? I mean, do you 1492 01:21:07,160 --> 01:21:11,040 Speaker 1: think that Mansion and Cinema and these other people, do 1493 01:21:11,080 --> 01:21:15,200 Speaker 1: they really care that much about this bipartisan infrastructure deal 1494 01:21:15,680 --> 01:21:20,280 Speaker 1: such that that constitutes real leverage in the negotiations. I 1495 01:21:20,320 --> 01:21:23,439 Speaker 1: think they do, and I think that, but I would 1496 01:21:23,439 --> 01:21:26,439 Speaker 1: put it this way. I think they're banking on House 1497 01:21:26,479 --> 01:21:30,400 Speaker 1: Progressives simply backing down, because let's be honest, that's what 1498 01:21:30,479 --> 01:21:34,840 Speaker 1: House Progressives have done forever and ever in situations like this, 1499 01:21:35,040 --> 01:21:37,960 Speaker 1: in standoffs like this. Now, it is my view that 1500 01:21:38,040 --> 01:21:41,000 Speaker 1: you could have the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill be voted down, 1501 01:21:41,240 --> 01:21:44,880 Speaker 1: you could have the Reconciliation Bill initially be voted down. 1502 01:21:45,120 --> 01:21:47,800 Speaker 1: But as I've said before, that does not preclude them 1503 01:21:47,840 --> 01:21:51,080 Speaker 1: bringing those bills right back up. I mean that can happen. 1504 01:21:51,120 --> 01:21:53,880 Speaker 1: We've seen that happen in the past. So I think 1505 01:21:53,920 --> 01:21:57,320 Speaker 1: this game, this standoff, this game of chicken, may continue 1506 01:21:57,360 --> 01:22:00,160 Speaker 1: for a couple of iterations. And I think you're you're 1507 01:22:00,200 --> 01:22:02,960 Speaker 1: going to see that Mansion and Cinema are going to 1508 01:22:03,000 --> 01:22:07,759 Speaker 1: try to rely on House Progressives ultimately blinking, ultimately folding. 1509 01:22:08,000 --> 01:22:11,520 Speaker 1: And I think Nancy Pelosi is banking on the Reconciliation 1510 01:22:11,680 --> 01:22:15,760 Speaker 1: Bill being watered down into nothing so that she can 1511 01:22:15,800 --> 01:22:18,880 Speaker 1: say this, Mansion and Cinema, look, I basically gutted the 1512 01:22:18,880 --> 01:22:21,080 Speaker 1: bill you didn't want. Then she can go to the 1513 01:22:21,080 --> 01:22:24,439 Speaker 1: House Progressives and say, hey, listen, I kept a reconciliation bill, 1514 01:22:24,479 --> 01:22:27,519 Speaker 1: regardless of what's in it, just something called a reconciliation bill. 1515 01:22:27,800 --> 01:22:31,120 Speaker 1: I kept that linked to the infrastructure bill, and we're 1516 01:22:31,160 --> 01:22:33,880 Speaker 1: passing that. The problem there, of course, is that if 1517 01:22:33,880 --> 01:22:36,400 Speaker 1: you got the infrastructure, it's give me the reconciliation bill. 1518 01:22:37,000 --> 01:22:40,519 Speaker 1: That's what actually matters, not a bill just called a 1519 01:22:40,560 --> 01:22:44,280 Speaker 1: reconciliation bill. But what's actually in the reconciliation bill. And 1520 01:22:44,320 --> 01:22:46,840 Speaker 1: what we've reported on before is that the House Progressives 1521 01:22:46,920 --> 01:22:51,559 Speaker 1: have not stated exactly what they want in the reconciliation bill. 1522 01:22:51,600 --> 01:22:54,040 Speaker 1: They've not been clear about what their deal breakers are. 1523 01:22:54,160 --> 01:22:57,960 Speaker 1: They've not said this must be in the reconciliation bill. 1524 01:22:58,040 --> 01:23:01,559 Speaker 1: They've only said they want a robust reconciliation bill. So 1525 01:23:01,640 --> 01:23:04,559 Speaker 1: I think that's where we're actually moving, where that idea 1526 01:23:04,640 --> 01:23:08,439 Speaker 1: of robust becomes the place where the negotiations really happen, 1527 01:23:08,640 --> 01:23:11,320 Speaker 1: and frankly where the bad stuff will happen, where the 1528 01:23:11,360 --> 01:23:13,240 Speaker 1: stuff will get cut out of it that needs to 1529 01:23:13,280 --> 01:23:15,720 Speaker 1: be in there. Let's talk about this politically. You know, 1530 01:23:15,880 --> 01:23:19,920 Speaker 1: it's interesting, David. Increasingly, I am just reminded of Obamacare, 1531 01:23:20,000 --> 01:23:23,160 Speaker 1: which is that it started out as something where Obama 1532 01:23:23,200 --> 01:23:26,160 Speaker 1: seemed to have the political high ground. Then as things 1533 01:23:26,240 --> 01:23:29,560 Speaker 1: dragged on and people got involved, nobody could actually understand 1534 01:23:29,720 --> 01:23:31,840 Speaker 1: exactly what was in the bill, and it became an 1535 01:23:31,840 --> 01:23:35,160 Speaker 1: overall netwin for Republicans because they could attack the idea. 1536 01:23:35,240 --> 01:23:38,160 Speaker 1: Is that kind of what you see happening here, especially 1537 01:23:38,240 --> 01:23:42,080 Speaker 1: if there are middling results within the bill itself. Look, 1538 01:23:42,400 --> 01:23:46,559 Speaker 1: I think what the Obama the early Obama era taught 1539 01:23:46,720 --> 01:23:49,960 Speaker 1: was that if you do not deliver quickly material gains 1540 01:23:50,000 --> 01:23:53,680 Speaker 1: to people, to regular people that they can understand that, 1541 01:23:54,160 --> 01:23:56,160 Speaker 1: and if you do not deliver it in a robust, 1542 01:23:56,240 --> 01:23:59,880 Speaker 1: a real way, that you become, as the majority party, 1543 01:24:00,160 --> 01:24:04,360 Speaker 1: vulnerable to attacks by Republicans. That's a basic, broad stroke 1544 01:24:05,280 --> 01:24:08,040 Speaker 1: story of what happened in the early Obama years. And 1545 01:24:08,080 --> 01:24:10,280 Speaker 1: I think that's the danger here, is that if you 1546 01:24:10,360 --> 01:24:14,160 Speaker 1: do not pass a big enough bill with enough direct 1547 01:24:14,280 --> 01:24:17,759 Speaker 1: aid that the average voter can understand and can feel 1548 01:24:17,880 --> 01:24:21,400 Speaker 1: in their lives, then you run the risk of having 1549 01:24:21,479 --> 01:24:24,559 Speaker 1: it be attacked. Not just attacked because it will be attacked, 1550 01:24:24,560 --> 01:24:28,000 Speaker 1: but have those attacks be effective. Have the Republicans run 1551 01:24:28,040 --> 01:24:30,320 Speaker 1: around saying, see, they promised you all these things and 1552 01:24:30,400 --> 01:24:32,800 Speaker 1: they didn't deliver. It is my view that you have 1553 01:24:32,920 --> 01:24:36,479 Speaker 1: to deliver to make the case that you've fulfilled your 1554 01:24:36,479 --> 01:24:39,519 Speaker 1: promise and that you are materially improving people's lives. A 1555 01:24:39,600 --> 01:24:45,040 Speaker 1: gutted reconciliation bill, an infrastructure bill, and only an infrastructure 1556 01:24:45,040 --> 01:24:48,960 Speaker 1: bill that includes projects that we know are slowly financed, 1557 01:24:48,960 --> 01:24:52,320 Speaker 1: that the direct benefits take some time. I mean the 1558 01:24:52,360 --> 01:24:55,559 Speaker 1: whole idea of shove already. Oftentimes infrastructure bills take a 1559 01:24:55,600 --> 01:24:57,400 Speaker 1: long time to spend that money. So if you get 1560 01:24:57,400 --> 01:24:59,840 Speaker 1: a gutted reconciliation bill on things that are easy to 1561 01:24:59,840 --> 01:25:03,360 Speaker 1: one understand, and only an infrastructure bill, then the Democrats 1562 01:25:03,360 --> 01:25:05,599 Speaker 1: are going to be left campaigning saying, hey, we delivered 1563 01:25:05,680 --> 01:25:07,920 Speaker 1: for you, and the Republicans are going to be saying 1564 01:25:07,920 --> 01:25:11,439 Speaker 1: to the public, do you even realize you don't see 1565 01:25:11,479 --> 01:25:14,559 Speaker 1: those benefits? Do you? Right? And it'll be a dishonest argument. 1566 01:25:14,720 --> 01:25:17,840 Speaker 1: But again, the point is you have to deliver in 1567 01:25:17,960 --> 01:25:20,760 Speaker 1: order to be able to campaign and say you have 1568 01:25:20,840 --> 01:25:24,760 Speaker 1: materially improved people's lives. The Obama administration early on was 1569 01:25:24,800 --> 01:25:27,080 Speaker 1: not really able to make that case, and they got, 1570 01:25:27,200 --> 01:25:30,160 Speaker 1: as Obama said, shell Act in the twenty ten elections. 1571 01:25:30,360 --> 01:25:33,479 Speaker 1: That's the situation we may be in right now. Yeah, 1572 01:25:33,520 --> 01:25:37,040 Speaker 1: I think this is an important sort of like political 1573 01:25:37,640 --> 01:25:42,080 Speaker 1: theoretical divide, because I think because members of Congress are 1574 01:25:42,080 --> 01:25:45,640 Speaker 1: here in Washington and they're very fixated on the process, 1575 01:25:46,280 --> 01:25:49,400 Speaker 1: and they're very fixated on what pundits are saying on 1576 01:25:49,439 --> 01:25:52,519 Speaker 1: Fox News about them or whatever, they think that what 1577 01:25:52,640 --> 01:25:55,120 Speaker 1: people are going to judge them by is whether they 1578 01:25:55,280 --> 01:25:58,439 Speaker 1: liked this particular process or not, and whether they gave 1579 01:25:58,479 --> 01:26:01,720 Speaker 1: Republicans a talking point around spending or not. What you're 1580 01:26:01,760 --> 01:26:04,240 Speaker 1: saying is that what really matters is if photers are 1581 01:26:04,280 --> 01:26:06,400 Speaker 1: going to the polls and feeling like, hey, you know what, 1582 01:26:06,520 --> 01:26:09,080 Speaker 1: Deltavarians under control. I got a job, I feel like 1583 01:26:09,120 --> 01:26:10,880 Speaker 1: things are moving forward. I got a little more money 1584 01:26:10,880 --> 01:26:14,839 Speaker 1: in my bank account. And they don't really care about 1585 01:26:15,040 --> 01:26:18,720 Speaker 1: whether it required getting rid of the filibuster or overruling 1586 01:26:18,720 --> 01:26:22,040 Speaker 1: the Senate parliamentarian, or whatever the tactics you have to 1587 01:26:22,160 --> 01:26:26,000 Speaker 1: use to get there. They care more about the end result. 1588 01:26:26,520 --> 01:26:29,280 Speaker 1: That certainly seemed to be the lesson of the Obama era, 1589 01:26:29,520 --> 01:26:32,519 Speaker 1: and at times the Biden administration has seemed to have 1590 01:26:32,640 --> 01:26:36,839 Speaker 1: taken in that lesson. But this whole situation with deferring 1591 01:26:36,840 --> 01:26:38,800 Speaker 1: to the parliamentary not being willing to get rid of 1592 01:26:38,840 --> 01:26:41,599 Speaker 1: the philibuster, separating the infrastructure bill and the rest of it. 1593 01:26:41,640 --> 01:26:45,120 Speaker 1: In this convoluted process that has dragged everything out and 1594 01:26:45,240 --> 01:26:50,439 Speaker 1: kept immediate relief from reaching Americans has really created a 1595 01:26:50,680 --> 01:26:54,200 Speaker 1: major issue for them because again, people don't care about process. 1596 01:26:54,280 --> 01:26:56,719 Speaker 1: They care about didit deliver or did you not deliver, 1597 01:26:57,640 --> 01:27:00,839 Speaker 1: especially when you're the majority party. Correct, I would totally 1598 01:27:00,840 --> 01:27:03,000 Speaker 1: agree with you that if you're in the minority party, 1599 01:27:03,360 --> 01:27:09,360 Speaker 1: the process, tying something up in the process arguably helps 1600 01:27:09,360 --> 01:27:12,920 Speaker 1: serve your political goals. If you're the majority party, the 1601 01:27:13,040 --> 01:27:17,000 Speaker 1: voters want to see that you are actually delivering things 1602 01:27:17,000 --> 01:27:20,280 Speaker 1: that you are quote getting things done, and those are 1603 01:27:20,320 --> 01:27:22,760 Speaker 1: going to be the questions at the end of the day. Now, look, 1604 01:27:22,800 --> 01:27:24,320 Speaker 1: there's going to be a lot of misinformation, a lot 1605 01:27:24,320 --> 01:27:26,479 Speaker 1: of you know, campaigns are rough and tumble. There'll be 1606 01:27:26,520 --> 01:27:28,800 Speaker 1: a lot of stuff thrown at Democrats, even if they 1607 01:27:28,840 --> 01:27:32,920 Speaker 1: deliver the best possible set of bills. That's inevitable. But 1608 01:27:33,040 --> 01:27:36,120 Speaker 1: as the majority party, the best chance you have to 1609 01:27:36,320 --> 01:27:41,320 Speaker 1: actually win reelection, to be given more years in power 1610 01:27:41,640 --> 01:27:44,880 Speaker 1: is to say, look at what we've actually delivered. And 1611 01:27:44,920 --> 01:27:48,919 Speaker 1: I agree with you that the parliamentarian, the filibuster, all 1612 01:27:49,040 --> 01:27:53,040 Speaker 1: of the worshiping of norms that Democratic leaders are going 1613 01:27:53,080 --> 01:27:55,960 Speaker 1: out there and trying to justify in action. None of 1614 01:27:56,000 --> 01:27:59,040 Speaker 1: that will matter at the end of the day if 1615 01:27:59,080 --> 01:28:03,799 Speaker 1: they did not liver material gains for regular people. So, David, 1616 01:28:04,040 --> 01:28:06,760 Speaker 1: you seem to be indicating here that you think, you know, 1617 01:28:06,800 --> 01:28:10,200 Speaker 1: there's this September twenty seventh deadline for the infrastructure bill. 1618 01:28:10,240 --> 01:28:13,599 Speaker 1: You seem to think that both infrastructure and reconciliation may 1619 01:28:13,640 --> 01:28:16,160 Speaker 1: go down in the short term, and then there may 1620 01:28:16,200 --> 01:28:20,160 Speaker 1: be another round of haggling and negotiations where you know, 1621 01:28:20,360 --> 01:28:23,360 Speaker 1: probably something sort of poultry and inadequate gets offered. On 1622 01:28:23,360 --> 01:28:25,880 Speaker 1: the reconciliation side, a lot of pressure is brought to 1623 01:28:25,920 --> 01:28:28,600 Speaker 1: bear on progressives to like, listen, you guys got to 1624 01:28:28,640 --> 01:28:30,800 Speaker 1: go along with this, and you don't want to keep 1625 01:28:31,120 --> 01:28:33,759 Speaker 1: you know, bread out of the mouths of hungry children 1626 01:28:33,880 --> 01:28:36,560 Speaker 1: or whatever it is they use to shame progressives into compliance. 1627 01:28:36,760 --> 01:28:38,559 Speaker 1: That seems to be where you sort of think things 1628 01:28:38,600 --> 01:28:41,320 Speaker 1: are ultimately headed. Yes, that's what I think is going 1629 01:28:41,360 --> 01:28:45,040 Speaker 1: to happen. And I think that Pelosi and Schumer will 1630 01:28:45,080 --> 01:28:48,559 Speaker 1: rely on the idea that the public doesn't really understand 1631 01:28:48,560 --> 01:28:50,599 Speaker 1: the difference between let's say A three and a half 1632 01:28:50,640 --> 01:28:54,240 Speaker 1: trillion dollar reconciliation bill and a five hundred billion dollar 1633 01:28:54,320 --> 01:28:57,280 Speaker 1: reconciliation bill. Of course, there is a huge amount of 1634 01:28:57,320 --> 01:28:59,960 Speaker 1: difference that that will mean on the idea of that 1635 01:29:00,040 --> 01:29:03,920 Speaker 1: we just talked about, of actually delivering material gains for people. 1636 01:29:04,160 --> 01:29:05,680 Speaker 1: But I think in the short um, let's say, well, 1637 01:29:05,720 --> 01:29:07,800 Speaker 1: you know, people will see that we pass something called 1638 01:29:07,800 --> 01:29:10,759 Speaker 1: a reconciliation bill that has some climate stuff in it. 1639 01:29:10,760 --> 01:29:13,400 Speaker 1: It doesn't matter how much we're actually spending, doesn't matter 1640 01:29:13,439 --> 01:29:16,160 Speaker 1: how much we're actually doing. We can say we passed something. 1641 01:29:16,400 --> 01:29:20,519 Speaker 1: Now I think something is probably better than nothing. But again, 1642 01:29:20,680 --> 01:29:23,479 Speaker 1: to go back to that fundamental principle, if you're not 1643 01:29:23,880 --> 01:29:27,599 Speaker 1: delivering real gains that people can feel in their lives, 1644 01:29:27,800 --> 01:29:31,080 Speaker 1: every dollar that you're not delivering of those real gains, 1645 01:29:31,400 --> 01:29:34,839 Speaker 1: you are increasing the risk to yourselves as the majority 1646 01:29:34,880 --> 01:29:38,720 Speaker 1: party in the upcoming elections. Yeah. Well, Pelosi's not a 1647 01:29:38,840 --> 01:29:42,839 Speaker 1: person who cares about the actual reality of people's lives. 1648 01:29:43,200 --> 01:29:45,360 Speaker 1: She cares about a talking point, which is why, as 1649 01:29:45,400 --> 01:29:47,759 Speaker 1: you said, for her three and a half trillion, two trillion, 1650 01:29:47,920 --> 01:29:51,000 Speaker 1: one trillion, eight hundred billion, whatever it is, if she's 1651 01:29:51,040 --> 01:29:54,240 Speaker 1: got that talking point of we did the thing, that's 1652 01:29:54,280 --> 01:29:56,479 Speaker 1: really all that she's ultimately after here, and that's where 1653 01:29:56,520 --> 01:29:58,720 Speaker 1: the divide between her and the progressives is going to 1654 01:29:58,720 --> 01:30:01,960 Speaker 1: become very clear. David. Thank you. As always, guys, go 1655 01:30:02,000 --> 01:30:05,719 Speaker 1: and subscribe to the Daily Poster. They are constantly doing 1656 01:30:05,880 --> 01:30:09,320 Speaker 1: phenomenal work highlighting and uncovering stories that no one else 1657 01:30:09,360 --> 01:30:11,600 Speaker 1: is paying attention to. David, thank you so much for 1658 01:30:11,600 --> 01:30:13,240 Speaker 1: your time this morning. Thanks David, we'll have a link 1659 01:30:13,280 --> 01:30:15,880 Speaker 1: down there in the description. Thank you, Thanks to both 1660 01:30:15,880 --> 01:30:19,360 Speaker 1: of you. Our pleasure. Thank you guys so much for watching. 1661 01:30:19,400 --> 01:30:20,960 Speaker 1: We really appreciate it. You know, we've been trying to 1662 01:30:20,960 --> 01:30:23,000 Speaker 1: hammer this home, but we have been very much at 1663 01:30:23,000 --> 01:30:28,160 Speaker 1: the mercy of the YouTube gods in terms of demonetization more. 1664 01:30:28,280 --> 01:30:31,200 Speaker 1: They have not been kind, largely because we've been covering 1665 01:30:31,240 --> 01:30:34,479 Speaker 1: this thing called the news like nine to eleven. Me too, 1666 01:30:34,960 --> 01:30:37,720 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Epstein. It's really interesting, Crystal, how some of the 1667 01:30:37,800 --> 01:30:40,400 Speaker 1: most consequential stories that we have to cover are quote 1668 01:30:40,479 --> 01:30:44,480 Speaker 1: unquote not suitable for advertisers, which makes it what impossible 1669 01:30:44,520 --> 01:30:47,760 Speaker 1: to actually do the news on YouTube the only way. 1670 01:30:47,880 --> 01:30:49,880 Speaker 1: And as we said, we literally if we were just 1671 01:30:49,960 --> 01:30:52,960 Speaker 1: YouTube revenue, we'd be dead, couldn't pay the bills in 1672 01:30:53,040 --> 01:30:55,160 Speaker 1: order to keep the lights on here. So link is 1673 01:30:55,200 --> 01:30:57,200 Speaker 1: down there in description. If you can help support us 1674 01:30:57,400 --> 01:30:59,880 Speaker 1: become a premium member. We offer the benefits in an hour, 1675 01:31:00,040 --> 01:31:02,800 Speaker 1: early amas, all that other stuff, but really what it's 1676 01:31:02,840 --> 01:31:05,840 Speaker 1: all about is being able to make sure we bring 1677 01:31:05,880 --> 01:31:09,400 Speaker 1: you exactly the show that we think is the most important. Oh, 1678 01:31:09,479 --> 01:31:12,000 Speaker 1: I've realized we covered abortion today. There you know, money 1679 01:31:12,000 --> 01:31:14,200 Speaker 1: on the table. Yeah, exactly, gotta do it. What are 1680 01:31:14,240 --> 01:31:16,080 Speaker 1: we supposed to be I was thinking, I didn't even check. 1681 01:31:16,080 --> 01:31:18,320 Speaker 1: And this tells you how little this factors into our thinking. 1682 01:31:18,360 --> 01:31:21,840 Speaker 1: I didn't even check whether my Haitian migrant crisis motalogue 1683 01:31:22,000 --> 01:31:25,280 Speaker 1: yesterday it was potentially demonetized. But anyway, that kind of 1684 01:31:25,280 --> 01:31:28,639 Speaker 1: proves the point that we're aware that we're getting hit 1685 01:31:28,680 --> 01:31:32,439 Speaker 1: pretty hard with demonetization for covering the news, but it 1686 01:31:32,479 --> 01:31:34,880 Speaker 1: doesn't impact our thinking, doesn't change what we're doing because 1687 01:31:34,880 --> 01:31:37,280 Speaker 1: of the support that you guys have shown to us. 1688 01:31:37,360 --> 01:31:40,559 Speaker 1: So thank you guys for that. We're extremely grateful. Have 1689 01:31:40,600 --> 01:31:42,320 Speaker 1: a great day and we'll see you back here to you. 1690 01:31:57,280 --> 01:31:59,519 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the show, guys, we really appreciate it. 1691 01:31:59,600 --> 01:32:01,640 Speaker 1: To help other people find the show, go ahead and 1692 01:32:01,720 --> 01:32:04,519 Speaker 1: leave us a five star Rating on Apple Podcasts or 1693 01:32:04,560 --> 01:32:07,759 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts really helps other people find 1694 01:32:07,880 --> 01:32:11,439 Speaker 1: the show as always special, thank you to Supercast for 1695 01:32:11,560 --> 01:32:14,439 Speaker 1: powering our premium membership. If you want to find out more, 1696 01:32:14,560 --> 01:32:16,719 Speaker 1: go to Crystalansager dot com