1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Day BAQ podcast. Good morning, It's Tuesday, 3 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:16,160 Speaker 2: the eighteenth of November. I'm Caroline Hepkeat in London and. 4 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,639 Speaker 3: I'm Stephen Carolin Brussels. Coming up today, a global sell 5 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 3: off in stocks deepens and fears of a market correction 6 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 3: grow ahead of earnings in the world's most valuable company. 7 00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 2: In video, Bloomberg Economics finds little evidence that artificial intelligence 8 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 2: will deliver the growth needed to support sky high valuations. 9 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 3: Plus How the Rich Stay Rich and inside look at 10 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 3: how wealthy British families are overhauling their fortunes while bracing 11 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:45,279 Speaker 3: for the next tax hit. 12 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:48,160 Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. 13 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 3: US and European equity futures have dropped as the markets 14 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 3: join an accelerating sell off across Asian stocks. In Japan, 15 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 3: the nic K two two five is down by almost 16 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 3: three percent, SMP mini futures on walls down by half 17 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 3: of one percent. In eurostocks, fifty features are one point 18 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 3: two percent lower. The moves underscore a broader flight to 19 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 3: safety as traders position for heightened volatility. Headlines on China, 20 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 3: Japan tensions, FED rate uncertainty, and earnings from the world's 21 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 3: most valuable company in Nvidia, are all driving negative market sentiment. 22 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 3: The hunting iiO is Managing editor for Asian Equities at Bloomberg. 23 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 4: There is a lot of uncertainties out there. As you 24 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 4: guys are talking about FED. That's the biggest thing, right Nvidia. Yes, 25 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 4: it's a big event, but people immediately look ahead to 26 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 4: the FED decisions, right and also all these ECO data 27 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 4: from the US that's been delayed. We don't know how 28 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 4: the picture will be so altogether, I think, you know, 29 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 4: although December historically speaking is a positive month overall, I 30 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 4: think this December may be a be. 31 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 3: Cautious Bloomberg's danting two speaking, There is alarm bells ring 32 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 3: for analysts who study chart patterns in the US stock market, 33 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 3: fueling concerned that the latest dip could swell into a 34 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 3: full blown correction of at least ten percent. 35 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 2: Bigcoin has dropped below ninety thousand dollars in Asia trading, 36 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 2: as the token's deepening slide has erased all of its 37 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five gains after topping one hundred and twenty 38 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 2: six thousand dollars in early October. The cryptocurrency's decline has 39 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 2: been dramatic as renewed concerns over stretched valuations hit the 40 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 2: digital asset. Anna Irrera is Bloomberg's senior crypto editor. 41 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 5: I guess we're going to see if there are more 42 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 5: liquidations out of crypto ETFs, because that was a big change, 43 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:37,519 Speaker 5: you know, when the atfs were approved, we saw massive 44 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 5: inflow from retail investors, and now it's not coming back. 45 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 5: They're pulling out. I guess maybe people are becoming more 46 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 5: sensitive and used to the big price wings and they 47 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 5: don't want to risk it again, and it's maybe following 48 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 5: the wider sort of risk of environment. 49 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Anna Irrera speaking there as options traders bet on 50 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 2: deeper losses, with demand for downside protection at the eighty 51 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:02,359 Speaker 2: five and eighty thousand dollars levels dominating recent flows. 52 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Economics have been looking into the question of whether 53 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 3: AI will deliver on its promised for returns by using 54 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 3: a framework from Nobel Prize winner and MIT economist Darren Akmaglu. 55 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,080 Speaker 6: Bloomberg's even Parts has more. 56 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:20,079 Speaker 7: It's perhaps the biggest question currently on investors' minds. Will 57 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 7: the hundreds of billions of dollars being invested in AI 58 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 7: actually pay off. The analysis by Bloomberg Economics starts with 59 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 7: the idea that AI doesn't replace entire jobs, but rather 60 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 7: particular tasks within them. They say, using conservative estamates implies 61 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 7: a booster to USGDP of more than one percent over 62 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 7: ten years. That's good about zero point one percentage point 63 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 7: on annual growth. Using a more optimistic scenario from the 64 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 7: same model gets to a GDP increase of nearly seven percent, 65 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 7: or about nzero point seven percentage points onto annual growth. 66 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 7: Bloomberg Economics concludes that some AI investors might be in 67 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 7: for a big payday, but that doesn't mean AI is 68 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 7: going to make everyone better off. In London, i'm une, 69 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 7: pots Bloomberg Radio. 70 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 2: President Trump says that he will allow the US to 71 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 2: sell F thirty five Fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. The 72 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 2: highly advanced stealth planes are a prize long cherished by 73 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 2: crowd Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is visiting the White 74 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 2: House today. However, the sale of the jets requires congressional 75 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 2: approval and years of negotiations. Barbara Leif, former US Assistant 76 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 2: Sector of State for Near Eastern Affairs, says Israel currently 77 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:30,719 Speaker 2: has a monopoly on F thirty five's in the Middle 78 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 2: East and could raise legal objections. 79 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 6: There is the. 80 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 8: Issue of not just US policy, but US law, which 81 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 8: is that the US will uphold Israel's qualitative military edge, 82 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 8: and so there's quite a bit of careful scrutiny and 83 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 8: analysis that goes into such a decision so that Israel's 84 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:52,599 Speaker 8: q ME is upheld, and we've heard from Israelis that 85 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 8: they had hope that there would be a good bit 86 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 8: of conditioning on that. 87 00:04:56,880 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 2: Barbara Leif speaking there, as Bloomberg understands, at president could 88 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:03,919 Speaker 2: be trying to lure Saudi Arabia into establishing diplomatic ties 89 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 2: with Israel. 90 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 3: The UK is drawing up measures to retaliate against the 91 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 3: European Union's plans to hike steel tariffs to fifty percent. 92 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 3: Britain's metals industry has warned the levies could result in 93 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 3: the biggest crisis in its history. From Brooks, freddie Fulston has. 94 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:22,840 Speaker 9: More Britain's once mighty steel makers were pioneers of the 95 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 9: nineteenth century and now what little of their production remains 96 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 9: risks being wiped out. The UK has been swept up 97 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,919 Speaker 9: in the EU's efforts to protect its own steel industry. 98 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 9: That's why the government is looking to tighten import quotas 99 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 9: and accelerate the replacement of its own safeguards. The steel 100 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 9: industry says the government has to act, but countermeasures would 101 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 9: raise more questions than answers about Starmer's efforts to rebuild 102 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 9: the UK's relationship with Brussels. In London, freddie Fulston Bloomberg Radio. 103 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 2: German CHANCELLORV Friedrich Mertz says the EU's banking regulations are 104 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,840 Speaker 2: too strict. He told an audience of financial professionals in 105 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:10,480 Speaker 2: Frankfurt yesterday that the US gives lenders an easier ride 106 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 2: to free up financing for the economy. 107 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 6: Is often you think you want to a. 108 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 1: Banking The regulation of banks is also important, Ladies and 109 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: gentlemen in Germany and in Europe, I want to say 110 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 1: this very clearly. 111 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 6: It is too strict. 112 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: After the financial crisis of two thousand and eight two 113 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: thousand and nine, we made many decisions that were right 114 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: and remain right. The risk buffers have become larger, the 115 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 1: reserves have become stronger. All of this is correct, but 116 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 1: what we are currently seeing in America and in other 117 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: parts of the world. Also in other parts of Europe 118 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:54,719 Speaker 1: provides far more opportunities for corporate financing than, for example, 119 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: in Germany. 120 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 2: Friedrich Mertz, speaking there, his remarks join a chorus of 121 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 2: European politicians calling for looser regulations to bolster investments into 122 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 2: defense and digital technology. According to Mertz, Germany will implement 123 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 2: the EU's bars or three standards in a targeted manner 124 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:16,679 Speaker 2: without adding extra requirements in order to reduce the burden 125 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 2: on its banks, and the. 126 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 3: UK's cap on bank deposit insurance will go up next month. 127 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 3: The Predential Regulation Authority will lift the amount of customer 128 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 3: savings protected in the event of institutional failure to one 129 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 3: hundred and twenty thousand pounds. That's more than it's floated 130 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 3: earlier in the year. Although the guarantee trails the US, 131 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 3: the plan change puts the UK's financial services compensation scheme 132 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 3: ahead of the EU, where the limit is one hundred 133 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 3: thousand euros or just above eighty eight thousand pounds. 134 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 2: And those are top stories for you this morning. In 135 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 2: a moment, we're going to bring you more on the 136 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 2: market sell off. Plus also how Britain's rich are preparing 137 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 2: for next week's budget from the Chancellor of Rachel Reeves. 138 00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 2: But before we get into those stories, something else been 139 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 2: reading about today, and this is all about Jeff Bezos. 140 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, Indeed, the Bloombrook Joe Constance has been writing about 141 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 3: how Bezos is back in an executive role for the 142 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 3: first time since he left Amazon in twenty twenty one. 143 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 3: He's now running a one hundred person company where ultra 144 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 3: lean teams are the name of the game. It's an 145 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 3: AI startup called Project Prometheus. Joe's been writing about how 146 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 3: Jeff maybe bringing some of his management strategies that he 147 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 3: honed at Amazon, things like writing memos. He doesn't want 148 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 3: slide decks when it comes to presenting things. He wants 149 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 3: a maximum six page memo and you bring it to 150 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 3: a meeting and everyone reads it in silence before the 151 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 3: meeting starts. To That makes people know they have to 152 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 3: give you lots of information and they know that everyone 153 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 3: else will read it. 154 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 2: Wow, you have to read it whilst sitting in the room. 155 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:51,839 Speaker 2: That's interesting, isn't it? So not short meetings? And he's 156 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 2: also got another one, which apparently is a pizza rule two. 157 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 2: Pizza rule team should be small enough that they can 158 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 2: be fed by a couple of pizzass It depends how 159 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:02,440 Speaker 2: hungry your team is, surely. 160 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 3: Well indeed, but I think it's something to think about 161 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 3: as Jeff Bezos is transitioning from running a massive company 162 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:10,839 Speaker 3: Amazon to a much smaller one as well, and also 163 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 3: you know, companies that he built at very different times 164 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 3: and with the focus now on you know, really especially 165 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 3: in the AI game. You know, talent is the name 166 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 3: of the game, and you have to have you know, 167 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 3: each team member really needs to count, but potentially be 168 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 3: handled in a very different way than where you'd manage 169 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 3: massive teams. 170 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it, I love I really liked those reporting. 171 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 2: But of course it slightly dodged the fashion question because 172 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:36,319 Speaker 2: the other big thing that Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez 173 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 2: Bezos have been, you know, known for now or are 174 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 2: going to become known for, is that they're sponsoring Anna 175 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 2: Winters twenty twenty six met Gala. Costume art apparently is 176 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 2: the theme. So yeah, they featured also because they've got 177 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 2: married in Venice in that lavage, lavish event. Lauren Sanchez 178 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 2: Bezos was featured on the front of US Vogue anyway, 179 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,359 Speaker 2: So there you go. Lots of different ventures that the 180 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:04,839 Speaker 2: Bezelsiss are into at the moment. 181 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 3: Well, that's turn back to our top story this morning, 182 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 3: and the sell off now deepening across markets, equities in 183 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 3: the Red and Asia, futures in Europe and in the US, 184 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 3: pointing to further last as later. Our Markets Live Executive 185 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 3: editor Mark cd moore joins us now for more, Mark, 186 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 3: good morning. What is driving the sell off today? 187 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 2: Then? 188 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 10: I don't think there's any really fresh catalyst. I think 189 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:25,839 Speaker 10: this is the theme we've kind of had the last 190 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 10: couple of weeks, that we're getting a bit of a 191 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 10: correction in the the meme stock momentum, stocks AI theme, 192 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 10: a correction we've not seen in this whole cycle up, 193 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 10: I mean the bull markets. 194 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 6: It's April. 195 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 10: It's been remarkable for how little volatility we've seen, and 196 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 10: to be honest, this pullback still is not very large. 197 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 6: You know, we've talked to in. 198 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 10: The show the last couplets when I've come on with 199 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 10: you about even the move saw start at the end 200 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 10: of October, it didn't look like it was exhausted. I 201 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 10: think we're probably getting closer to that exhaustion point in 202 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 10: the short term. This isn't the bubble bursting. We are 203 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 10: in an AI bubble and CAPEX bubble, and it will 204 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:02,680 Speaker 10: end really nastily someday. 205 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 6: This isn't the bubble bursting. 206 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 10: This is just the first dose of volatility we're getting, 207 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 10: and you know it's not even very particularly panicky volatility. 208 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 6: So I don't know there's really a fresh catalyst. 209 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 10: I think that the main driver here is that you 210 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 10: know that the crypto space is getting destroyed, and that's 211 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 10: got much more downside. 212 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:16,559 Speaker 6: We've talked about it before. 213 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 10: Digital asset treasury companies just are going to continue to 214 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 10: putting pressure in the sector, so generally crypto will have 215 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 10: a lot more to weaken, and that that weighs on 216 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,599 Speaker 10: sentimental ways in the retail sector in particular, which is 217 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 10: why they stop buying their favorite kind of big tech names, 218 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 10: which is why you're seeing that kind of tech name 219 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 10: stuff for the most and you're seeing a little bit 220 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:35,680 Speaker 10: of rotation in the market as results of value names 221 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 10: hold up a little bit better than that those retail 222 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 10: favorites in the tech space. 223 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 2: That's interesting. So then in terms of the kind of 224 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 2: analysts and why they're concerned, I mean, you've said you 225 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 2: don't think this is kind of limited volatility. What are 226 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:56,079 Speaker 2: the next catalysts are in videos results or are the 227 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 2: catalysts coming. 228 00:11:58,000 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 6: So in videos obviously the big ones. 229 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 10: The whole world is driven by AI in the I 230 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 10: t and that's that dominates everything in markets the moment 231 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 10: until that bubble blows up at some point next year. 232 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 6: And in video earnings. 233 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 10: You know, look at it is the king of the 234 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 10: in Vidia trade, and it's really important. It's both the 235 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:14,360 Speaker 10: biggest company in the world, it's added the most market cap, 236 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 10: but it's actually a company that's making real money out 237 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 10: of this AI bubble. So you know that it's not 238 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:20,959 Speaker 10: while there's a lot of circular stuff gone in the 239 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 10: I bubble and there's a lot of smokes and mirrors 240 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 10: in videos making real money, it's kind of helping kind 241 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 10: of people take more debt to buy more of it stuff. 242 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 10: And you know, it's the picks and shovels trade. You 243 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 10: know it will suffer when the AI capex bubble collapses, 244 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 10: but it is a valid company right and making significant 245 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 10: amounts of money. What's been really phenomenal is over the 246 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 10: last fifteen months we've seen in video stock press increase 247 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 10: by about fifty percent to out about one point seven 248 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,439 Speaker 10: trillion value that stats as at the end of last week, 249 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,959 Speaker 10: so it's probably paired a little bit yesterday. And yet 250 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 10: despite the fact that it's added more in market cap 251 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 10: than almost every other company in the world beyond the 252 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 10: ten largest companies, it's actually fallen after almost every earnings 253 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 10: and that pure so the last five earnings, on average, 254 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:03,840 Speaker 10: it's been lower a month later. On all of them, 255 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:06,680 Speaker 10: it's been lower two days later, and in fact four 256 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 10: to five is just consistently sold off for the month 257 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 10: after earnings. So you know, in videos normally sell the 258 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 10: fact event it's a profit taking event, but that's normally 259 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 10: been within the bullmarket context this time around, where we've 260 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 10: already got weakness, So maybe it will it change the narrative. 261 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 10: Maybe've already taken profit. 262 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 6: I don't know. I guess if I had to go 263 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 6: for choice. 264 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 10: I don't have high conviction expect in Verdio earnings to 265 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 10: be very strong. I expect people to reaffirm faith in 266 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 10: the overall AI bubble is more to inflate. It's not 267 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 10: bursting yet, but I'm still not convinced that this pullback 268 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 10: in markets is fully exhausted yet. 269 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 3: Okay, so plenty more to come on that point as well. 270 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 3: I just want to ask you briefly, Mark as well, 271 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 3: what your view is and what's happening on bitcoin. So 272 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 3: we're looking at it back around the nineteen thousand level today, 273 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 3: raising all of the gains of the year. I mean, 274 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 3: how do you view this? 275 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:50,320 Speaker 6: Look? 276 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 10: The important thing to remember is that bitcoin is constructed 277 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:55,200 Speaker 10: to have a boom and bus cycle. It can never 278 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 10: be stable at high prices because you know, the people 279 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,440 Speaker 10: are bitcoin fanatics. They don't even to pretend it's a viable, 280 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 10: got a use case. It's about huddling, and you know, 281 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 10: so just you put it in a kind of way 282 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 10: and store it, and that means huddling becomes much less 283 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:12,200 Speaker 10: attractive at much higher always serving there's no volatility. When 284 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 10: it stops going up and it stops getting marginal buyers. 285 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:16,959 Speaker 10: The whole point is that you know, people buy bitcoin, 286 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 10: they stuck it, they hide it away. 287 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 6: It's never used anything. 288 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 10: You just guard your line in a spreadsheet and and 289 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 10: think about it and worship it and pray it and stuff, 290 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 10: and then you know, you hope you get another marginal buyer. 291 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 10: But essentially it keeps on needing more marginal buyers all 292 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 10: the time. And sometimes there's marginal buyers run out, and 293 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 10: they're more likely to run out when you get stability 294 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 10: at high prices because it stops attracting people. You know why, 295 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 10: a you're going to attract a greater fool when there's 296 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 10: no kind of gains to offer, so it gets a 297 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 10: boom and bus cycle. It can be stable at low 298 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 10: prices because when it crashes a lot, there's no reason 299 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 10: for whales to cash out. 300 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 6: But at high prices, when. 301 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 10: It starts losing volatility, it's always going to collapse again. 302 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 10: See I wrote a piece about five years ago saying 303 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 10: that you know, bitcoin is always going to have another 304 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 10: seventy percent correction. 305 00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 6: It doesn't mean it's the last one. 306 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 10: It can always rise again in a world where we're 307 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 10: destroying fiat currencies and we're going to monetize that the 308 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 10: big global debt bubble over time. I understand why people 309 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 10: like things like crypto. They perceive it as a store 310 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 10: of value. I'm not convinced, but I'm not saying it's crazy. 311 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 10: You could have another cycle. But the point is it 312 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 10: will always have another seventy percent crash. And you know, 313 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 10: I said a few weeks ago, it looks like we're 314 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 10: at the start of another next seventy percent crash. You know, 315 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 10: I said at the start of November, I thought we're 316 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 10: going to forty thousand bitcoin. Whether that's you know, the 317 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 10: last big crash and it goes again, I don't know, 318 00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 10: but that's always the case with bitcoin. 319 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 6: It is constructed for that kind of volatility. 320 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, the bitco verla coaster that Mark, thanks so much 321 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,720 Speaker 2: for being with us our Markets Live Executive editor Mark Cudmore. 322 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg daybaqube coming up after this. 323 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 3: Britain's richest families are bracing themselves for the budget next week, 324 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 3: overhauling how they manage their fortunes, taking more cash out 325 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 3: of their businesses and moving to protect key assets. Joining 326 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 3: us now to discuss our ultra wealth Reporter Bend stopples Band, 327 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 3: Good morning. How are Britain's wealthiest preparing for what could 328 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 3: be a host of potential tax increases next week? 329 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 11: It's interesting what we're seeing, and we've seen one of 330 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 11: Britain's richest families, for example, take out almost a billion 331 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 11: pound dividend. Now we don't know the ins and outs 332 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 11: yet of what happened there, but it was broadly a 333 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 11: restructuring of it of its shareholding structure. That was the 334 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 11: Bambard family who owned JCB, one of our sort of 335 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 11: biggest success stories on the manufacturing side, and other families 336 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 11: are sort of reinforcing what I could say is their 337 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 11: trust structures. And these are multi generational, multi billion pound fortunes, 338 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 11: and broadly it makes them feel I would say, more robust, 339 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 11: more battle prepared for what's going to lie ahead in 340 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 11: just a few days for the next budget where they 341 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 11: could face indeed some higher tax rises. They're in better shape, 342 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 11: fighting fit is maybe the right way to put it. 343 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 2: I can imagine the chance though, maybe her team saying 344 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 2: they aren't going to be asking people for money that 345 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 2: they don't have. It's taxes on wealth that these individuals possess. 346 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 2: What is their attitude you think, given your depth of reporting. 347 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 11: That's really good question, Caroline. I would say they're letting 348 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:04,440 Speaker 11: their money a lot of the time do the talking. 349 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 11: A lot of them are doing public talking publicly at 350 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 11: the moment. If we continue with the Bamford family, one 351 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,639 Speaker 11: of the biggest fortunes we have on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, 352 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 11: more than ten billion dollars or pounds, whichever you take it. 353 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 11: They've just donated two hundred thousand pounds reportedly to Reform. 354 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 11: Now that's the Poor Party, of course, led by Nigel Farage, 355 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:29,120 Speaker 11: that is beating absolutely hammering Labor at Keir Starmer's Labor 356 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 11: Party in the polls. Now, they've got a lot of money, 357 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 11: of course, a lot of wealth to tax, but it 358 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 11: doesn't seem that they're entirely happy with it. And crucially 359 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 11: they're saying actually that the tax rises that are coming 360 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:43,160 Speaker 11: are going to damage the small businesses they are crucial 361 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 11: to the broader operations of their own JCB. Now, I 362 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:51,560 Speaker 11: think that's interesting because their attitude clearly here is you know, 363 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 11: Labour says they're all for growth, but actually JCB and 364 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 11: the Bamford family are saying their attitude is that these 365 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 11: tax risers could hit to the very thing that laborer 366 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 11: wanting in order to get Britain out of its current 367 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:03,880 Speaker 11: economic volatility. 368 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 3: There was a lot of talk in the early days 369 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 3: of the Labor government of wealthy families and individuals leaving 370 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:12,239 Speaker 3: the UK as well. I mean, what do we know 371 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 3: about the scale of that. Now sort of a year 372 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:16,359 Speaker 3: and a half into this government. 373 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 11: We've still a waiting game, Steve, and I'm sorry to 374 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:20,679 Speaker 11: keep you. 375 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 6: Keep you waiting there. 376 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 11: Well know, officially on the actual official data for the 377 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 11: first time, and I thinking about August next year. I 378 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:30,679 Speaker 11: trust me you can very much be the first person 379 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 11: to speak to me when we know for sure. In 380 00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 11: the meantime, what we've kept reporting as recently as last 381 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 11: night we reported that the head of well they're basically 382 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,720 Speaker 11: the top executive in London for the Qatar Royals family 383 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 11: office has left the UK. Has left the UK if 384 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,360 Speaker 11: there's been a long time here, dotgebank veteran has left 385 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 11: the UK for Italy, and he's from Italy. So what 386 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 11: we're reporting is these individual cases here and there, And 387 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,879 Speaker 11: what I can say anecdotally from my own experience of 388 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 11: doing this for almost two years now is a disproportionate 389 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,920 Speaker 11: number of Britain's ultra wealthy individuals have left. 390 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:02,200 Speaker 5: Now. 391 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 11: Some people say there's no wealth exodus, but what I 392 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 11: can certainly assert from my own experience is the multi 393 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:11,879 Speaker 11: billionaires have often gone and the sort of ripple effect 394 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 11: through I would say Britain's billionaire economy, I would say, 395 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:17,399 Speaker 11: is going to be felt more sharply as a result 396 00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:19,760 Speaker 11: of that, even if let's say only ten multi billionaires 397 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 11: have gone, I think the proof or the devil will 398 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 11: be in the detail, as they say, as I'm sure 399 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:27,360 Speaker 11: they're going to say for the budget in a few 400 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 11: days too. 401 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 2: Just very briefly, what is the most controversial tax increase 402 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:35,920 Speaker 2: when it comes to the wealthiest people in the UK, 403 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:39,080 Speaker 2: Because a lot of different taxes have been discussed, but 404 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,320 Speaker 2: what is the thing that's sort of most worrying those 405 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 2: alter wealthy? 406 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 11: A good question, Karna, I would say for both the 407 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 11: non doms are former nondoms, the ult to wealthy individuals 408 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 11: who held from abroad who are living here who've often gone, 409 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:59,160 Speaker 11: and the UK business owners. It comes down to one thing, 410 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:00,439 Speaker 11: and that's inheritance tax. 411 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 6: At the last. 412 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 11: Budget in Rachel Eaves at her first budget, Labour's first 413 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:08,119 Speaker 11: budget in more than a decade, it did catch business 414 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:12,400 Speaker 11: owners by surprise that she scrapped inheritance tax reliefs on 415 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 11: business assets and agricultural property. 416 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:15,880 Speaker 6: And that was a big deal. 417 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 11: And that's partly I think driving a lot of the 418 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,199 Speaker 11: changes we're seeing here because they've got a bit of 419 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 11: a window to do it. They've got until next April, 420 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,920 Speaker 11: before the first reforms really kick in. So what we 421 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,640 Speaker 11: seeing and we actually saw in October twenty twenty four 422 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:34,120 Speaker 11: the biggest a massive jump in companies restructuring themselves, said 423 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 11: the same month of the budget in anticipation of tax rises. 424 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,439 Speaker 11: And that's a base on our analysis fifteen million company 425 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 11: findings that we did for this piece, and on the 426 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,200 Speaker 11: non doms as well. That's wealthy foreigners living in the UK. 427 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:50,160 Speaker 11: It was also a broad exposure to the UK's inheritance 428 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 11: tax rates that forced many of them to upsticks and say, 429 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,479 Speaker 11: you know what, I want to live somewhere else. And 430 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 11: the UK government is often saying, well, inheritance tax isn't 431 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,200 Speaker 11: such a big deal in terms of tax risers, but I. 432 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 6: Would they to differ there. 433 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,919 Speaker 11: It raises about ten pounds a year. We will again 434 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 11: wait and see whether it's actually going to drive an 435 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 11: increase in our tax receipts going forward. 436 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the 437 00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,680 Speaker 3: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond. 438 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,200 Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple, 439 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:25,160 Speaker 2: Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 440 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 3: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB 441 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 3: Radio the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. 442 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station is also available on your 443 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 444 00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hepka and. 445 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,680 Speaker 3: I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for all 446 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,120 Speaker 3: the news you need to start your day right here 447 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:49,680 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe