1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,960 Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information. 2 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,639 Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree? Five five dollars? This is a ratable 3 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 2: up top of the tackle one. You're saying that humans 4 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 2: need fantasy to make life bearable. Humans need fantasy to 5 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 2: be human? 6 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:32,159 Speaker 1: My goodness, mistaken, the best, relentless, refusing to give up? Right, 7 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: hit that horn by? What is up? Everybody? 8 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:44,599 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex NFL wild Card Weekend Touchdown Special. 9 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybon of the Action Network in 10 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 2: Fantasy webs and I am joined by another top three 11 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 2: ranking season odds maker to go to this ranking, Ish 12 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 2: Sean Kern. Sean, congratulations, another great year. How's it going? 13 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, thanks to you too. We both finished top ten, 14 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: so that was fantastic to see. I hope you're staying 15 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 1: safe with all these fires who are dealing with this 16 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 1: as we speak, So yeah, I hope you're doing good. Yeah. 17 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 2: Man, we really love y'all out there because we're doing this. 18 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 2: We're doing this live. I know Kerner is just ready 19 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:28,120 Speaker 2: for his flu game right now. Everything's burning down around me, 20 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 2: so but we had to get this. We had to 21 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 2: get the show off, so we're gonna go game by game, 22 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 2: give out our favorite touchdown best. We got odds and 23 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 2: everything because we're doing this a little later in the week, 24 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 2: so that's gonna be fun. And got six games, so 25 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 2: get right to it. A quick reminder, all of our 26 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 2: fantasy football content is available right now over on Fantasy 27 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 2: labs dot com. You can find all of our rankings, projections, tools, 28 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:58,639 Speaker 2: more at Fantasy labs dot com. Sean, it was another 29 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 2: pretty good week in Week eighteen. Bunch of hits. We're 30 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 2: shot Bateman Booty got another. I think we've hit on 31 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 2: him a few times on the show. Another Ray Davis. 32 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 2: I feel like we got the It's always the same guys. 33 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 2: It's like Raydylor, Parker Washington every week. 34 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 1: Emmanuel Wilson, Daniel Wilson. But yeah, these are like longer 35 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 1: shot guys, right, like value guys under the radar. We're 36 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: not giving out, you know, Jamar Chase at minus one fifty. 37 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 1: We're looking for these like value guys. And you know, 38 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: I think we're gonna be doing the same thing today 39 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 1: where most of these guys are going to be five 40 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 1: to one. I've got somebody that's almost like a twenty 41 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: to one long shot. So yeah, these aren't chalky picks, 42 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: to say the least. 43 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 2: Unless there's value on the talk, then we might, oh yeah, exactly, 44 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 2: we might have to dabble with because there is. There 45 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 2: are a couple guys I know we each have one. 46 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 2: I've got two touchdown bet, but it's a Chalky guy, 47 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 2: so we'll jump right into it. We've got quick slip 48 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 2: wings in the episode description, So if you want to 49 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 2: tail any of these bets that we give out today, 50 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 2: just work for those quick slip links in the episode description. 51 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:12,359 Speaker 2: Saturday Wild Card Weekend one of my favorite weekends in sports. 52 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 2: We started with the Chargers at the Texans. Two and 53 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 2: a half is a spread in favor of the Chargers 54 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 2: on the road. Here Texas is getting disrespected. The total 55 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 2: is forty two and a half. I do expect a 56 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 2: low scoring game, Sean, who do you like in this one? 57 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:32,239 Speaker 1: Well, Raybon, you know, it's been a couple months since 58 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 1: I've been able to gush about Will Disley. Those are 59 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: better times. I was healthy back then. So why not 60 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: let's go back to the Will Disley bus here. Let's 61 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 1: go with Will Disley at plus three seventy five and 62 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: if you remember he went on that mini tear as 63 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: the lead tight end from weeks six through week thirteen. 64 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 1: I would say then, you know, he dealt with a 65 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: few injuries, missed some time. He's been in and out 66 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 1: of the lineup, but last week we actually saw him 67 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 1: finally return into that full time role. When he was 68 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 1: on that tear, you know, he ran route on seventy 69 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: one percent of Herbert's dropbacks last week. That was the 70 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: first time since Week twelve he cleared seventy percent. So again, 71 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:16,919 Speaker 1: this is a good time to hop back on the 72 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 1: Will Disley bus. Josh Palmer still isn't practicing, I think, 73 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 1: and now Quintin Johnson is you know, missing some practice time. 74 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 1: So this is a game where Disley, you know, could 75 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 1: be the number two target, the clear number two target 76 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 1: in a game where the Chargers might have to throw 77 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: a bit more. And well, the Texans have been good 78 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: against tight ends. This isn't a game where I'm expecting, 79 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 1: you know, a ton of receptions a ton of yards 80 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:44,039 Speaker 1: for Will Disley. They have been kind of pron to 81 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: tight ends in the red zone. They've allowed eight touchdowns 82 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 1: against the position on the season, which is the fifth most. 83 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,159 Speaker 1: So you know, I'm projecting Disley again back in that 84 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:57,359 Speaker 1: full time role now closer to plus three twenty to 85 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:01,280 Speaker 1: score touchdown. And that's with Josh Palmer in the lineup, 86 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 1: which I don't even know if he's going to play 87 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 1: this week, and quint Johnson at full strength. So I 88 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,720 Speaker 1: think we have some room to go, you know, even 89 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: lower on his odds here if Palmer is ruled out 90 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 1: and or Quintin Johnson is you know, limited or even 91 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 1: ruled out. So I kind of like the value we're 92 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: getting here on Disley at plus three seventy five. Then 93 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: for the Texan side, as you alluded to, I got 94 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:30,280 Speaker 1: a chalky guy here with Joe Mixon, but I'm going 95 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: with two or more touchdowns at plus five hundred. You know, 96 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: Joe has been pretty quiet down the stretch. He was 97 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: actually held scoreless over the final four games of the 98 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 1: season following their Week fourteen by so I think this 99 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,279 Speaker 1: is a good time to buy low. And when it 100 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 1: comes to goal line usage, Mixon was actually one of 101 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 1: the most dominant in terms of just percentage of team 102 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:57,279 Speaker 1: rush attempts inside the five yard line. He saw eighty 103 00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 1: eight percent of the Texans goal line at hemps this season. 104 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 1: Only Derrick Henry had a hier rate at ninety percent, 105 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 1: and the only other running back on the Texans who 106 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: even saw a goal line touch is Cam Akers, who 107 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 1: plays with the Vikings now, so you know, Joe Mixon 108 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: has literally zero competition around the goal line. So that's 109 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 1: that's a great, you know thing when it comes to projections, 110 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 1: and you know, his odds is score a touchdown or 111 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 1: minus one twenty. I'm actually in line with that, but 112 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 1: you know, I am showing some value on this. Two 113 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 1: plus touchdowns at plus five hundred, I'm you know, I'm 114 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:39,799 Speaker 1: projecting them closer to plus four fifty here. So again 115 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: I agree with you this this should be a lower 116 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 1: scoring game. But if the Texans do, you know, get 117 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:48,679 Speaker 1: into Chargers territory a few times, it'll be mixing who's getting. 118 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 1: You know, one hundred percent of the carries made even 119 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 1: a reception around the goal line, So I think he 120 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:58,160 Speaker 1: does have some sneaky upside here for multiple touchdowns at 121 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 1: plus five hundred. 122 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that eighty eight percent goal line shares 123 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:06,919 Speaker 2: pretty much in line with his overall snap rate. Maybe 124 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 2: that goes down slightly because Damian Pierce had a really 125 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 2: good game last week, but I doubt it I mean, 126 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 2: the Texans have just been kind of played mixing every 127 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 2: snap when it's important all year long. And I agree 128 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:21,239 Speaker 2: on Disney. I think the you know, catches in yards, 129 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 2: maybe it would be tougher to come by. But if 130 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 2: you look at just the matchups in the red zone, Texans, 131 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 2: you got Stingley, you got you know, Lasting on the 132 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 2: other side, Like those are tough cornerbacks to score on, 133 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 2: so you're gonna kind of funnel the ball to other 134 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 2: receivers that aren't the wide receivers out on the perimeter. 135 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 2: So yeah, it makes a lot of sense there. And 136 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 2: hopefully those are the only two Texan touchdowns because I'm 137 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 2: on the Texans in the under so I can't go. 138 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 2: I can't have Joe Mixon score like three touchdowns. Yeah, 139 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 2: let's chill it too, all right. Next game up, we 140 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 2: got the Pittsburgh's Steelers at the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore favored 141 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 2: by nine and a half to total is forty three 142 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 2: and a half. That's come down a bit. Looks like 143 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 2: Zay Flower is gonna miss at least this week and 144 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 2: you know, potentially more into the future. So for Baltimore, 145 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 2: I'm balling with Isaiah likely common player on this show 146 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 2: that we shout out here, but he's plus two seventy 147 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 2: five and I'm showing some value on this one because 148 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 2: he's second on baltimore thirteen red zone targets. He leads 149 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 2: the team with eight targets inside the ten. And remember 150 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 2: he hasn't even been really a full time player for 151 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 2: much of the year. He's been behind Andrews, but last 152 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:42,959 Speaker 2: two weeks seventy four percent route rate and Agalar should 153 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,680 Speaker 2: be back, but now you have Flowers out, so likely 154 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 2: I still expect him to kind of operate. Is that 155 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 2: de facto slot number three kind of wide receiver out there, 156 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 2: and especially so in scoring positions. So I do like 157 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 2: Baltimore to continue to put up points. You know, I 158 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 2: do expect this one to be a lower scoring game too, 159 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 2: but I do expect Baltimore to have success, so like him. 160 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:09,199 Speaker 2: And then on the Steeler side, it's a little tougher. 161 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 2: I mean, after they did not even clear two hundred 162 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 2: yards and twenty points against the god awful Bengals, hard 163 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 2: to have confidence in that of them. But gotta go 164 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 2: with Calvin Austin here. He's plus five point fifty and 165 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 2: I'm showing some pretty good value there as well. I 166 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 2: have it inside plus five hundred in the high four 167 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 2: like four to seventy something. And the reason is three 168 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:34,199 Speaker 2: of us four touchdowns this year have come from Russell Wilson. 169 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 2: Pickings on the field actually tends to help him. I 170 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 2: guess it draws coverage away. He also has a part 171 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 2: return score this year, and if you remember his first 172 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 2: and only playoff game, he actually scored a touchdown against 173 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 2: the Buffalo Bills in a thirty one seventeen defeat last season. 174 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:57,560 Speaker 2: So Calvin Austin steps his game up when it matters most. 175 00:09:57,640 --> 00:09:59,680 Speaker 2: At least that's what my one game sample size is 176 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 2: telling me. So I say, likely Dalvin Austin. 177 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: Play. That's nice little running back for me last week. 178 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 1: Usually when you get a guy who was on that 179 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: didn't score, they score. So that's that's really good news for. 180 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, that was my main strategy. I just you know, 181 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 2: I had to give some actual football reasons. But yeah, 182 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 2: all right, Sunday, Broncos at the Bills. We both like 183 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 2: some guys in this one, so a lot to get 184 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 2: you here. Eight and a half is the spread in 185 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 2: favor of Buffalo at home the total is forty seven. John, 186 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 2: who do you like in Broncos bills? 187 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, So for the Broncos, this is the long shot 188 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 1: I was talking about. It is gross, I will admit that, 189 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: but it's Nate Atkins who Nate Atkins plus sixteen hundred 190 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:53,439 Speaker 1: to score a touchdown. He's actually the Broncos third string 191 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 1: tight end, and the Broncos tight ends have been just 192 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 1: to wasteland in terms of production this year, So why 193 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: the hell would I be giving him out? Well, Atkins 194 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: has had a knack for the occasional troll touchdown this year. 195 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: He has three of them on the season on just 196 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 1: fourteen receptions. So he's kind of taken over that Jody 197 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 1: Fortston role from the Chiefs back in the day, where 198 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 1: all he does is catch touchdowns. So I think he's 199 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:20,679 Speaker 1: sneaky here. And you know, for what it's worth, the 200 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 1: Broncos have been using all three tight ends pretty evenly, 201 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: with Atkins' role kind of being a red zone weapon. 202 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 1: And I went back I rewatched all three of his 203 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 1: touchdowns this year, and you know, he's setting up to 204 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,560 Speaker 1: block initially and then quickly goes into a route where 205 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:40,559 Speaker 1: bo Nicks looks his way. Pretty early in the route. 206 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:42,839 Speaker 1: One of them look like a design play, like they 207 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:46,439 Speaker 1: literally designed the play to go to Atkins for you know, 208 00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 1: wide open touchdown, so Nix is actually looking for him. 209 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:52,199 Speaker 1: None of them were like busted plays where Nicks is 210 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 1: running around and just happens to find him. Atkins has 211 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 1: been very early in his progression and one of them 212 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:00,480 Speaker 1: he made a nice spin move to find end zone. 213 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: So Atkins has had a knack it to score touchdowns 214 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: this year, and you know last season or the last 215 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 1: four games, I would say his routes run rate has 216 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 1: actually been climbing up and led to a season high 217 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:18,560 Speaker 1: thirty six percent routes run rate last week, so you 218 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,440 Speaker 1: know his usage has been trending up. Again, He's gonna 219 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 1: see more usage around the goal line anyway. They tend 220 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 1: to use more heavy personnel around the goal line, so 221 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 1: he's typically going to be out there, maybe blocking initially, 222 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: but again he does release and a lot of times 223 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 1: Nicks looks his way. So I think he's a sneaky 224 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 1: bet at sixteen hundred here. I'm actually projecting him closer 225 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 1: to eleven to one, so I think we're going some 226 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 1: decent value here. Again, this is a nice fun long 227 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: shot where he's proven a few times this year he 228 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 1: can get in the end zone. And for the Bill side, 229 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,960 Speaker 1: gotta go with our boy Ty Johnson. We've we've mentioned 230 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 1: him quite a few times here on the show, but 231 00:12:57,440 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 1: I like Ty Johnson at plus six fifty to score. 232 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: And you know, obviously James Cook is the lead back here, 233 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 1: but Ty Johnson typically spells him on passing downs and 234 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: that's important in this matchup because the Broncos have been 235 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:15,199 Speaker 1: pretty vulnerable to pass catching backs this year. They've allowed 236 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 1: the fourth most yards and the fourth most receiving touchdowns 237 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: with five to posing running backs. But I think that 238 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 1: there's kind of a sneaky quirk here where they might 239 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 1: be even more prone to a back like Ty Johnson. 240 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:32,440 Speaker 1: They've been vulnerable to pass like passes to running backs 241 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 1: downfield to ten plus yards downfield, which is a bit 242 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: of a rare occurrence, but they've allowed the second most 243 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 1: yards allowed on those types of passes. And that's really 244 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 1: Ty Johnson's specialty. He leads the league with nine targets 245 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: ten plus yards downfield. He actually has the like he has. 246 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 1: I think he has one hundred and fifty three yards 247 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 1: on the season on targets ten plus yards down field, 248 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 1: which is two times more than any other running back. 249 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 1: That's how my he dominates this type of work and 250 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 1: it matches up perfectly against the Broncos. So I think 251 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 1: he's a sneaky threat for a long catch, maybe a 252 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:12,680 Speaker 1: long touchdown here through the air. Plus he does have 253 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 1: a rushing score this year as well. Sometimes they mix 254 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 1: him in near the goal line, which has typically been 255 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: Ray Davis's role. But I think considering is the playoffs, 256 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 1: ty Johnson does have experience. Maybe the Bills lean on 257 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 1: him a little bit more here than usual over the 258 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: rookie Ray Davis. So I think there's a lot of 259 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 1: pass for Ty Johnson to score here. But again I 260 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 1: think there's a sneaky matchup where he tends to see 261 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 1: passes downfield and the Broncos have struggled with running backs 262 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: running downfield route. So give me Ty Johnson at plus 263 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 1: six fifty here to score. 264 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean we saw that on display. Who it's 265 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 2: against Detroit right where the kind of similar defense you know, 266 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 2: could play some man coverage can glitz and they kind 267 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 2: of take advantage by getting their backs singled up. You know, 268 00:14:57,520 --> 00:14:59,480 Speaker 2: guys like that, And I think we can see that 269 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 2: again with Atkins. Yeah, he is their red zone tight 270 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 2: end because Lucas Kroll, he's he gets the most routes. 271 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 2: Guess how many red zone targets he has this year? 272 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 1: Probably zero. 273 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 2: I had to get zero two last year, so twos 274 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 2: and two in his career. Two in his career. So 275 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 2: he's got about, like his touchdown rate is you know, expected, 276 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 2: is pretty much zero. So like tight ends just aren't 277 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 2: scoring from about more than twenty yards out unless they're 278 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 2: really talented. So you knock him down, you kind of 279 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 2: give those to Atkins, Like Atkins kind of double benefits 280 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 2: more than just his whatever his you know, snap ratings, 281 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 2: So like those. I actually got a couple more guys 282 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 2: in this game. I think this is a pretty interesting 283 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 2: game just because of how, uh, you know, the defensive 284 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 2: schemes for these teams. So you talked about Denver, they 285 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 2: like to play a lot of man coverage. So I 286 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 2: think one guy that's really interesting here. I can't believe 287 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 2: I'm saying this is the Mary Cooper because first of all, 288 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 2: he was away from her team for personal reasons. Boks 289 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 2: aren't even floating props for him for a while. But 290 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 2: he's plus three seventy five. I have this inside plus 291 00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 2: three hundred, even going against Patrick Sirtan, who expect him 292 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 2: to match up with the most, because I think that's 293 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 2: why we're getting value. I think this is the contrarian play. 294 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 2: The market's only expecting about two catches for Cooper. I 295 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 2: have him closer to three, a little under three. So 296 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 2: obviously the touchdown odds jump up with that. But Sir 297 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 2: Tan gave it one touchdown this year. It was too 298 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 2: exavierly get so you know, not great odds. But I 299 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 2: do think Cooper's being vastly underrated because even you're not 300 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 2: gonna see he probably doesn't see him on every play. 301 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 2: You're not gonna play man coverage on every play. Remember 302 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 2: he shut down Jerry Judy, and Jerry Judy had like 303 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty yards receiving in that same game. 304 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 2: So Cooper could certainly get free here. And he is 305 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 2: one of the Bills receivers that fares the best against 306 00:16:56,040 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 2: man coverage. And then for the Broncos Michael Burton plus 307 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:06,200 Speaker 2: two thousand. This is one if you're betting first touchdowns 308 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 2: and last touchdowns as well, I would recommend leaning Ford 309 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 2: first touchdown with a guy like Burton, just because if 310 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,440 Speaker 2: the Broncos are trailing late, the fullback is less likely 311 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 2: to be in a game. But Burton has fourteen percent 312 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 2: of the Broncos carriages inside the five, seven percent of 313 00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:24,680 Speaker 2: their targets inside the ten. He has six total scoring 314 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 2: opportunities inside the ten, and all of them have come 315 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 2: in the second half of the season. He has two 316 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 2: touchdowns over his last five games so and a third 317 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 2: one overturned or challenged, and he was just short so 318 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 2: could have had three in the last five weeks. He's 319 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 2: volture status is alive. And well, you don't know who's 320 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 2: going to get the ball down there in the red zone, 321 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 2: as you kind of alluded to Dan Reman. It could 322 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 2: be estimated, it could be all these other guys. 323 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 1: Anybody but Lucas Kroll, really. 324 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 2: Anybody but Lucas Crowle exactly. Yeah, there we go, Yeah, 325 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,880 Speaker 2: and we could kind of. I mean, Jordan Humphrey used 326 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:03,439 Speaker 2: to be like a staple down there, but not as 327 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 2: much anymore. And that's why this other guy like Promise 328 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 2: is the last one. Devon Velay at plus four seventy five. 329 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 2: This is another guy I'm showing about I'm not about 330 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 2: four to one because Buffalo top four zone team, and 331 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:22,120 Speaker 2: I always bump up Veley against teams that play zone covered. 332 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 2: But we really hit on him on this show doing 333 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 2: that a couple of times. And you might even have 334 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 2: like a Thursday night prop or something on him too, 335 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 2: going against his zone heavy team or fading him. But 336 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 2: that's you know, man coverage. He doesn't really pop, but 337 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 2: for some reason, that big body up against zones got 338 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 2: that's where all his touchdowns are coming from. Double his 339 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 2: yards per route run. When he goes against zone coverage. 340 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:47,920 Speaker 2: His target rate increases by about four percent per route. 341 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,159 Speaker 2: So I love Veyley as well. This is this is, 342 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:54,679 Speaker 2: and he's he's the better, like last touchdown better if 343 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:57,919 Speaker 2: you're kind of leaning Burton would be first touchdown. You know, 344 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,679 Speaker 2: heavy personnel is doing the game. Bay more of a 345 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:02,879 Speaker 2: comeback script. He can score any time, but just more 346 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 2: of a you know, comebackscript, maybe a garbage time score 347 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,639 Speaker 2: late for him. So uh yeah, Vylee, Burton, Cooper, and 348 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,440 Speaker 2: then you like Atkins and Johnson, so we should have 349 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:12,159 Speaker 2: at least one. 350 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 1: Well police yeah, uh, Bonix doesn't target Vley in the 351 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: red zone either. Vley is just there to catch the 352 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 1: balls that bounce off of Michael Burton and Rank Atkins, 353 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 1: and I'm trout, like he doesn't get targeted, but he 354 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 1: still ends up, you know, catching touchdowns. That was a 355 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:33,360 Speaker 1: miraculous touchdown grab last week, but it wasn't even targeted 356 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 1: to him. But yeah, I do like him again, like 357 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: you said, against zone heavy teams. 358 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,920 Speaker 2: Looking for weekly projections from me and Sean Kerner, the 359 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 2: only place you'll find them is at Fantasy labs dot com. 360 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 2: You'll get our weekly player projections every week, plus access 361 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 2: to a suite of tools, including our lineup optimizer and 362 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 2: our all new sim Labs lineup builder that uses the 363 00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,400 Speaker 2: power of simulations paired with our award winning project actions 364 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:04,439 Speaker 2: to deliver winning lineups in mere seconds. Use promo code 365 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 2: flex forty that's fl ex four zero for forty dollars 366 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:12,920 Speaker 2: off your first month of Fantasy Labs dfs. We've dropped 367 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 2: the link in this episode's description. Just remember to use 368 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:20,400 Speaker 2: code flex forty at checkout. All right, So, I mean, hey, 369 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 2: that's heck of a parlay right there, Green Bay, Philly. 370 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 2: This one's interesting because both quarterbacks on the injury report 371 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 2: this week. The Packers are four and a half point 372 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 2: underdogs in Philly. The total forty five and a half gotta 373 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 2: go with our guy, Dontavian Wicks. For Green Bays plus 374 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 2: three ten, I have them about plus two to seventy five. 375 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 2: No Christian Watson. That usually leads to Wix getting about 376 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 2: a seventy five to eighty five percent route rate for 377 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 2: the season. He's usually closer, you know, to forty five percent, 378 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 2: splitting time with Watson and maybe picking up a few 379 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 2: snaps here and there in you know, three or four 380 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 2: wide personnel, but usually he's gonna get starter snaps in 381 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 2: this one. And I do expect the Packers to trail 382 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 2: in this game, and so I do expect Wicks to 383 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 2: be out there. I like him more than you know 384 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 2: some of the other guys like Jacobs and Craft just 385 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 2: for pure value, thought about Heath and bo Melton, but 386 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:25,200 Speaker 2: they're actually overvalued, I feel in the market. So the 387 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 2: guy I'm showing the most value on Dantavian Wicks. And 388 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:32,280 Speaker 2: then for the Philadelphia Eagles, they're always going to be 389 00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:34,919 Speaker 2: one of the most overvalue teams in a touchdown market. 390 00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 2: So for any time touchdown, I'm actually not showing value 391 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 2: on a single Philadelphia Eagle, just putting that out there. 392 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:46,919 Speaker 2: But two plus touchdowns, I don't I don't know why. 393 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,480 Speaker 2: I don't know if the books are like they're calculating 394 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,880 Speaker 2: these a little differently than we are. But like I'm 395 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 2: showing value on Saquon here for two or more scores, 396 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:59,399 Speaker 2: he's plus three seventy five, and I make that, you know, 397 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,920 Speaker 2: closer to three to one. I mean, uh, he's had 398 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:07,119 Speaker 2: believe it's six to multi touchdown games already this season. 399 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,560 Speaker 2: I know, you know, Jaywen Hurts is a big threat 400 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 2: to that, but you know, jaywhen Hurts coming off the 401 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 2: the concussion, maybe they don't want to necessarily risk the 402 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,720 Speaker 2: touch push quite as much. Who knows, But either way, 403 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 2: with Jalen Hurts active for all oh yeah, all of 404 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 2: the games that that bark we except the one he 405 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 2: left early. That was one of his multi touchdown games, 406 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 2: but five others were with Jayleen Hurts uh active and starting. 407 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 2: So yeah, Saquon Barkley two plus scores, it's chalk, But 408 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 2: I think it's undervalued. I think it should be closer 409 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 2: to three to one. 410 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, and you said Bo Melton's over valued. Has that 411 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 1: ever happened before? H? No? 412 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:50,439 Speaker 2: I think so. I don't think so. 413 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, the mar wised up to you know, the Goat. 414 00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I know you're you're pretty high on them 415 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,400 Speaker 2: this week. I think you're Yeah, yeah, I think garage wise, Yeah, 416 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 2: I was looking at your your numbers. So are you 417 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 2: confident it's gonna be I know they were talking him up. 418 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,880 Speaker 2: Are you think it's gonna be like pretty much mostly Bo? 419 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,399 Speaker 2: And or it's gonna be more of like a fifty 420 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 2: to fifty with Malik Heath. 421 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,680 Speaker 1: Just some bow is enough bow? You know what I mean? 422 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,920 Speaker 2: Like, Yeah, no, I think it'll be mostly Bo. 423 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 1: I definitely have Heath mixing in, but I think they 424 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,920 Speaker 1: usually give Bo more work in these spots. Didn't he 425 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 1: do pretty well in the playoffs last year too? I 426 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:32,879 Speaker 1: remember us talking about him heading in. 427 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:36,720 Speaker 2: A touchdown in the against San Francisco, I want to say, 428 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:38,320 Speaker 2: and he had one hundred yard game. I think it 429 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 2: was like week seventeen or eighteen heading into the playoffs, 430 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 2: and I think he scored in the division round. I 431 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:45,639 Speaker 2: believe it is. 432 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:50,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, He's He's always thrived whenever he's seen 433 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 1: a chance. So I'd say anytime his odds pop up 434 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,200 Speaker 1: over maybe ten to one this week, he's worth a sprinkle. 435 00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:58,439 Speaker 1: But yeah, a lot of books looks like you know, 436 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 1: he's around nine to one. I would say that's pretty sharp, 437 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:03,480 Speaker 1: But if it gets over ten to one, he's definitely 438 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 1: worth a sprinkle too. All right. 439 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 2: Next up, we got the Sunday night football game Washington 440 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 2: Commanders at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Bucks favored by three. 441 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 2: The total fifty and a half. That is the highest 442 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 2: of wild Card weekend as we tape this here on Thursday, Sean, 443 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 2: who do you like in commander's bucks? 444 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, on the Commander's side, I'm gonna go with Austin 445 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 1: Eckler at plus twot eighty. You know, he was able 446 00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 1: to return last week after missing like over a month 447 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:42,040 Speaker 1: since he suffered that concussion back in week twelve. So 448 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 1: it's nice to see him back last week. But this 449 00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,120 Speaker 1: is a matchup where you know, the Commanders are three 450 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 1: point underdogs. It's more likely to be you know, trailing 451 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 1: past heavy game script, so that's gonna benefit Eckler specifically 452 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 1: out of this backfield, so he could see an uptick 453 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 1: in playing time because of that. He's been very efficient 454 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,880 Speaker 1: in his role with the Commanders this year. He has 455 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: four touchdowns is the twelve games. You know, the Bucks 456 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,399 Speaker 1: are still dealing with, you know, like a cluster injury 457 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:15,920 Speaker 1: situation with their safeties, so that could maybe help Eckler, 458 00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 1: you know in the passing game or you know, on 459 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: explosive run if he gets to the second level. So 460 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 1: I think Eckler' sninky here at plus two point eighty. 461 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,439 Speaker 1: I'm projecting him closer to plus two to fifty, but 462 00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 1: I do like his upside just based on this matchup. 463 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,680 Speaker 1: And for the Buccaneers, I gotta go with Baker Mayfield 464 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,440 Speaker 1: to score at plus five point fifty. I mean, he's 465 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 1: coming off a game where he ran nine times for 466 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:44,159 Speaker 1: sixty eight yards. Clearly he's more willing to use his 467 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 1: legs right now, and these must win games like last 468 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 1: week and if you if you watch that game, he 469 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,480 Speaker 1: was constantly seeking contact, just getting into the Saints players' faces, 470 00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 1: throwing the ball at him, talking shit, like just getting 471 00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 1: fired up. So I think he's gonna keep that going 472 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 1: this week. So if they get in like a goal 473 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 1: to go situation, you know, if his first couple reads 474 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,320 Speaker 1: aren't there, uh, he's gonna be more than willing to 475 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 1: pull the ball down run put his body on the 476 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 1: line trying to get in for the score. So he 477 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: has three rushing scores on the season. Uh so this 478 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,399 Speaker 1: is already, you know, probably offering some slight value. But 479 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:20,879 Speaker 1: I think just given last week how he's kind of 480 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 1: operating in these must win games, I like him at 481 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 1: plus five fifty to score, projecting him closer to plus 482 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 1: five hundred. But again, I think his his scrambling upset 483 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,359 Speaker 1: is probably a little bit higher now heading into the playoffs. 484 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 2: I mean, Baker Mayfield has just been a monster this year. Hey, 485 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:46,680 Speaker 2: so there's what offense since two thousand, twenty eight points 486 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 2: per game, six yards per play, sixty five red zone, 487 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:57,679 Speaker 2: fifty third down. That one offense is the Tampa Bay 488 00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:02,159 Speaker 2: Buccaneers of twenty twenty four. Yeah, Baker Mayfield, love it, 489 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 2: yea love it. And Yeah, regarding Ekwer, I think he 490 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:12,159 Speaker 2: may even be used more than usual because as kind 491 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 2: of an extension of the run game because Brian Robinson 492 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:18,960 Speaker 2: hasn't look right. They didn't play McNichols or Rodriguez. Really 493 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 2: they put him like one snap in the last game, 494 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 2: and their center Beyondish is a little banged up. So 495 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 2: is he gonna be able to kind of get out 496 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,040 Speaker 2: and you know, pull around and do all the things, 497 00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,400 Speaker 2: because like you can't just have an injured center trying 498 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,239 Speaker 2: to move Vita Veil off the ball, like that's not 499 00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,280 Speaker 2: gonna work. But if he's he can't be pulling all 500 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:39,600 Speaker 2: crazy either. It's Robinson's in quicksand so you might just like, 501 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:41,320 Speaker 2: you know, dump it off to Echo in the red 502 00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 2: zone instead of handing it, you know, from Ryan Robinson 503 00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:49,640 Speaker 2: Junior minus two linebuck near the goal on. So yeah, 504 00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:51,639 Speaker 2: I think Echo has even more chances than usual. 505 00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's some great contexts. That's why we were both 506 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,240 Speaker 1: low on Brian Robinson on the previous pot. But yeah, 507 00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:02,440 Speaker 1: Tyler beyondish is questionable. I mentioned Brian Robinson Jr. He 508 00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,000 Speaker 1: runs inside it the third highest rate. So when Beanish 509 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 1: is out off the field, his yards per rush go 510 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,440 Speaker 1: down a full yard over a yard, So that's gonna 511 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 1: be key. And like you said, Vidave is you know 512 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:16,919 Speaker 1: the human wall just standing there right in the middle. 513 00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 1: So this is a really bad matchup for Brian Robinson. 514 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,000 Speaker 1: So yeah, it could just lead to more Eckler runs. 515 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 1: You know. Screen passes to Eckler could be an extension 516 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:28,320 Speaker 1: of the run game. Just a much better matchup for 517 00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:29,360 Speaker 1: Eckler here. 518 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 2: All right, the final matchup of Wildcard weekend Monday night football, 519 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:42,160 Speaker 2: Minnesota Vikings at the Rams rematch that Thursday night game 520 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,760 Speaker 2: earlier this year where the Rams pulled off the upset 521 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,960 Speaker 2: Rams one and a half point home underdogs. In total 522 00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,680 Speaker 2: is forty seven and a half for the Rams. Tyer 523 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 2: Higbee like him. I think he should read the tight 524 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,200 Speaker 2: end room they all played last week. But you know, 525 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 2: Higby's working his way back. I do think he ends 526 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 2: up being that number one tight end, and you know, 527 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:08,480 Speaker 2: I haven't projected for about forty five fifty route rate. 528 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 2: He's five to one to score. But there's a chance 529 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 2: he just kind of takes like all of the tight 530 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,360 Speaker 2: end STAPs because I think you pointed out on one 531 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:17,040 Speaker 2: of our pops either this week or last week, that 532 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,800 Speaker 2: Jean Devay didn't really seem too happy with his you know, 533 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:24,480 Speaker 2: prio of tight ends this year. Kobe Parkinson, Davis Allen, 534 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 2: both of those guys got kind of a shot at 535 00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 2: being the top pass catcher. Hunter Long more of a blocker, 536 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 2: but I think he's hurt anyway. Uh So Higbee could 537 00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:39,000 Speaker 2: go back to that hig beast seventy route rate that 538 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,560 Speaker 2: there's an outside shot of that, So I think you're 539 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 2: getting kind of some added upside here betting on him 540 00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:49,120 Speaker 2: for a touchdown. That's pretty much the only guy like 541 00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 2: on the Rams. Rams are put a bit over value 542 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:53,920 Speaker 2: of the market, I think in terms of the touchdowns 543 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,440 Speaker 2: for the Vikings, a couple of guys though uh maybe 544 00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,280 Speaker 2: it's because you know, recency bias with Sam Dar, but 545 00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,120 Speaker 2: a couple of pass catchers for the Vikings. I'm showing 546 00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:06,120 Speaker 2: value on number one Jay with Naylor as usual, he's 547 00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,920 Speaker 2: five to one, and I think he should be more 548 00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,680 Speaker 2: like four to one, so I would have him at 549 00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:15,040 Speaker 2: plus four hundred. He's out there at plus five hundred 550 00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,480 Speaker 2: and that it's been the story all year. He's scored 551 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 2: in thirty five percent of his games, so I'm always 552 00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:23,080 Speaker 2: I'm projecting him to score like about twenty percent of 553 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:26,320 Speaker 2: the time, so significant regression, still value in the market. 554 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:30,400 Speaker 2: They're they're just knocking him way down for some reason. 555 00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 2: Maybe it's to prop up I don't know Hockinson, who 556 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:37,280 Speaker 2: just never seems to score touchdowns. But speaking of Hockinson, 557 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:42,840 Speaker 2: also like Josh Oliver in this spot because with Naylor 558 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 2: and Oliver. You're kind of like, I wouldn't necessarily parlay them, 559 00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 2: but I think one of the two is a good 560 00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 2: bet to score. And Oliver's twelve to one, so both 561 00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 2: of them, you know, pretty big long shots. But there 562 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 2: is also a chance, after what happened last week with 563 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,400 Speaker 2: Sam Donald and all of the rusher and all the 564 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 2: long developing routes, that they go and say, you know what, 565 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,280 Speaker 2: let's go more two tight ends, more one two personnel. 566 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:14,080 Speaker 2: That would be Oliver, and he can release into routes 567 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 2: and he's usually the guy they end up even open 568 00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:22,160 Speaker 2: because you gotta worry about Jefferson Addison Hockinson. So I 569 00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:27,600 Speaker 2: love Josh Oliver at him closer to about ten to one, 570 00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,440 Speaker 2: so Higbee nailer Josh Oliver. 571 00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, you're not kidding. They're not really offering a bilo 572 00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:36,120 Speaker 1: price on Howkinson, who hasn't scored this year. He's at 573 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 1: two to one, which reminds me, you know who finally 574 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 1: hit who finally scored their first touchdown the Seahawks last week? 575 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:44,960 Speaker 2: Was it no Offan? 576 00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 1: Yeah you didn't see that? Why? Oh no, I'm confusing. 577 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,640 Speaker 2: I'm going to kick a barner touchdown from week like 578 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,320 Speaker 2: sixteen with a fan. Yeah, yeah, you're right. 579 00:31:56,360 --> 00:32:00,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, my boy, finally it finally paid off. He put 580 00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:02,400 Speaker 1: his body on the line though he got kind of 581 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,960 Speaker 1: banged up, but yeah, it was beautiful to see. I 582 00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,400 Speaker 1: told it finally the last week. Like you said, we 583 00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,120 Speaker 1: should have just done it last week. Parlay with all 584 00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,800 Speaker 1: the guys that haven't scored for their team yet. But yeah, 585 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:13,720 Speaker 1: no fan, man, he finally scored for me. 586 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:18,719 Speaker 2: And uh, our guy Gino got his six million dollars 587 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,440 Speaker 2: of incentives. But yeah, I love the uh, I love 588 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:24,560 Speaker 2: the noa fan call. That's been what it's that's been 589 00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:28,000 Speaker 2: like a show favorite. And he hasn't He hasn't scored 590 00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,360 Speaker 2: all year as a Seahawks period. 591 00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,120 Speaker 1: Well yeah, he started off as a DFS play, which 592 00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 1: he was doing fine. You know, catching four balls for 593 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,040 Speaker 1: fifty yards is pretty good for a cheap tight end, 594 00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:41,200 Speaker 1: but he just wasn't scoring. But yeah, two seasons with 595 00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:43,920 Speaker 1: the Seahawks now he's part of that Russell Wilson trade. 596 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,240 Speaker 1: Finally scored his first touchdown with the Seahawks. So congrats, no. 597 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:51,600 Speaker 2: Fan, yes, sir, all right, that is gonna do it. 598 00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,400 Speaker 2: But before we get out of here, uh, we got 599 00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:58,360 Speaker 2: the Parway Express account on the Action Network app. That's 600 00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:02,200 Speaker 2: where we track all of our experts, long shot plays, parlays, 601 00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 2: you know, partway projection, same game, parlay edges, things like that. 602 00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,240 Speaker 2: So six games on the slate, We're gonna pick our 603 00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:13,360 Speaker 2: top two favorite touchdown scorers from today's episode, one each, 604 00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,640 Speaker 2: and we'll throw though parlay with them together. You can 605 00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:20,960 Speaker 2: track it in Parlay Express by following the Parlay Express 606 00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:24,240 Speaker 2: account on the Action Network, the free award winning Action 607 00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:27,440 Speaker 2: Network Apple might Dad, Sean, who you going with for 608 00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,520 Speaker 2: your favorite touchdown pick for Wildcar Weekend? 609 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,600 Speaker 1: I mean, I gotta go with Will Disley. We are 610 00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:35,160 Speaker 1: so back. 611 00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:38,880 Speaker 2: I love it. If only no off it was on 612 00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 2: the on the swing, yeah, Will Disley will do Yeah. 613 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:45,600 Speaker 2: I mean you know who I'm going already? My guy, 614 00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,560 Speaker 2: I might. I might have been on him for four 615 00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:50,680 Speaker 2: or five of those six touchdowns that he scored this 616 00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:54,200 Speaker 2: year Dayvid Naylor gotta go back to the well five 617 00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:58,800 Speaker 2: to one and Distey plus three seventy five. So that 618 00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:02,600 Speaker 2: should be a nice little parway there. If you want 619 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,560 Speaker 2: to tail this bet, or any of the bets that 620 00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,760 Speaker 2: Sean and I have discussed today, look for the quick 621 00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:12,800 Speaker 2: slip links in the episode description. It's really super easy. 622 00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,040 Speaker 2: You just click that lane, it will open up a 623 00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:20,640 Speaker 2: bet slip for you to tail right there. Easy. So again, 624 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:25,759 Speaker 2: check for the quick slip links in the episode description. 625 00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:29,360 Speaker 2: That's gonna do it for a wild Card weekend Fantasy 626 00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:33,440 Speaker 2: Flex Touchdown special episode. Be sure to subscribe to the 627 00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:37,560 Speaker 2: pod so you don't miss an episode all post season long. 628 00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:40,800 Speaker 2: We also have our Projections pod which drops on Tuesday, 629 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:44,760 Speaker 2: and then we'll do these every Thursday as well Fantasy 630 00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:46,640 Speaker 2: Labs dot com. As I mentioned for all of our 631 00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:50,000 Speaker 2: Fantasy football content, you can use promo code flex for 632 00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:53,920 Speaker 2: zero there and you can find Sean on x act 633 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,719 Speaker 2: the underscore odds Maker. I'm at Chris Raybond, We're at 634 00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,960 Speaker 2: those same handles on the free award winning Action Network 635 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,319 Speaker 2: is capped until the divisional round is get this month. 636 00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:13,759 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 637 00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 638 00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,920 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 639 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:20,800 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler