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Speaker 1: This is Football four oh one K broadcasting on Dallas

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Speaker 1: Cowboys dot Com and the official Dallas Cowboys Happen. Now

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Speaker 1: your hosts bow Repka and RJ. Choppy, welcome to episode

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Speaker 1: four of the Football four oh one K. I'm RJ.

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Speaker 1: Choppy from one oh five through the Fan. He is

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Speaker 1: bow Repka the football Glory Hole, and it is time

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Speaker 1: for a little bit of gambling match. We're gonna get

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Speaker 1: to a big, big six team parlay in the pizza

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Speaker 1: money parlay. We have got the best bets in college

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Speaker 1: football player props in the NFL. But first, bow, let's

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Speaker 1: take a look back at what happened last week and

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Speaker 1: week two of the National Football League. We gave you

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Speaker 1: seven teams that we that we're gonna go four and

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Speaker 1: three blind. If you just bet these seven teams blind,

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Speaker 1: you would historically go four and three. And I do

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Speaker 1: believe we went five and two on those seven teams, correct.

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Speaker 1: We did, So we beat history and five and two. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I like it when you beat history because that makes

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Speaker 1: you the history maker. When you beat history, you become

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Speaker 1: the history maker. And I like being a history maker

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Speaker 1: because heroes get remembered, but legends never die. I was

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Speaker 1: told that once by you know, let's see the Ghost

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Speaker 1: of Babe Ruth and the Sandlot, which my kid uses.

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Speaker 1: My kid used that as an actual quote in a

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Speaker 1: book report on Babe Ruth, and I said, I don't

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Speaker 1: think you can use that one. He didn't say that. Technically,

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Speaker 1: he didn't say that was in a movie. We can't

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Speaker 1: go with that one. But I mean, he never knows

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Speaker 1: say it. Who knows. I don't know how accurate the

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Speaker 1: records were back in nineteen twenty three, the record books,

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Speaker 1: you know, in terms of documenting what people actually said.

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Speaker 1: If you were still as you know, if you were

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Speaker 1: still using leeches to get sickness out of people, I'm

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Speaker 1: not really going to trust what was going on back

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Speaker 1: in the day. But let's just say a looking back

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Speaker 1: at last week five and two, in those seventeams that

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Speaker 1: we had pinpointed, Yeah, the only two teams that did

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Speaker 1: not cover we're in Atlanta and uh it was Jagged Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: And so try to just start with the Atlanta Like

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Speaker 1: how bad? How bad are the Falcons? Really? Man? They're bad, dude,

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Speaker 1: you know, they They're so bad that you know, look,

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Speaker 1: Matt Ryan is no longer at the age where he

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Speaker 1: can overcome bad teams. Um, you know, he's he's not

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Speaker 1: even gonna put the numbers that he used to like

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Speaker 1: he used to put up fantastic numbers even with bad teams. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's he's old now he's older, or I should say,

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Speaker 1: and maybe he will figure it out like Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 1: did as he got older, you know where where he

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Speaker 1: had a couple of down years. The difference is Rogers

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Speaker 1: still winning games, uh match, just not anymore. And it's

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Speaker 1: really kind of uh putting a stain in his entire

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Speaker 1: career because people always look at the president to crap

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Speaker 1: on the past. Yeah, I mean it's recency bossed like

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Speaker 1: anything else. Right, He's like, oh, look at Matt Ryan.

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Speaker 1: He never was any good. He only had the one

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Speaker 1: year they went to the super Bowl, And that's not true.

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Speaker 1: The guy was, you know, one of the best quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: in the NFL for a long time. And just like

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Speaker 1: you said, it's it's not ending well for him. Lanta.

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Speaker 1: Maybe get to start somewhere else, you know, we'll see,

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Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. But talk about the five teams

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Speaker 1: that did covers. Tennessee did cover and they won straight up.

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Speaker 1: And remember we did say that three teams would win

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Speaker 1: straight up out of those seven as well, well, this

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Speaker 1: team number one and Chobby one only question about that game.

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Speaker 1: He's like, is Derrek Hendry going to be the next

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Speaker 1: Adrian Peterson? Like this physical freak that just won't obey

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Speaker 1: the rules of the three hundred plus carries for so

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Speaker 1: many years and you just fall off a clip like

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Speaker 1: he's just he doesn't want to follow the rules. Like

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Speaker 1: this dude is a monster, and he just continues to

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Speaker 1: do and put up monster numbers and just bowl over

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Speaker 1: people a year after year. Look a year year. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's what's gonna happen. You know, every time it depends

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Speaker 1: on what the team it is, right, but you know,

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Speaker 1: there are a lot of times where you'll get a player,

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Speaker 1: a quarterback, a team that has somebody's number, and then

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Speaker 1: you're also gonna get a team team that you know

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Speaker 1: sometimes like you know Atlanta for just taking Atlanta for example,

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Speaker 1: I saw I said there were three and fourteen their

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Speaker 1: first eight games of a year since twenty nineteen. You know,

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Speaker 1: since in the first eight geme they they'll have a

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Speaker 1: good second half. But some teams own some others, some

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks played well against certain defenses, and some teams just

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Speaker 1: can't start off hot at all. Yeah, that's just kind

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Speaker 1: of crazy, man, It's kind of crazy. Moving on to Indy,

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Speaker 1: Andy did cover. They had plenty of chances to win

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Speaker 1: that football game. Actually, they had two turnovers inside the

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Speaker 1: five yard line. They were stopping fourth and goal of

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Speaker 1: the one, and then went somehow got intercepted on their

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Speaker 1: shovel pass. Tobby, I didn't even know that that was possible.

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Speaker 1: I thought that was against the rules to intercept a

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Speaker 1: shovel pass. Honestly, That's why I thought it has never

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Speaker 1: been done. Yeah, yeah, it was. It was such a

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Speaker 1: bad play, you know, and they win that game if

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Speaker 1: he doesn't do that pass. Yeah, they win that game

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Speaker 1: because they lost. My three? Was it an overtime? Was

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Speaker 1: over the regulation? It didn't quite go to overtime, but

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Speaker 1: the Rams choked it out right there at the end.

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Speaker 1: They did lose by three, so they did get the cover,

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Speaker 1: and the Rams were just kind of hanging onto it.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, they had two terms inside the five and

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Speaker 1: they had the ball again, you know, with the chance

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Speaker 1: to go down score. Now Wentz broke both of his

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Speaker 1: ankles or whatever he did. So there was you know,

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Speaker 1: some other guy there Easton and he didn't do very well.

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Speaker 1: So the Rams just kind of squatted on it from there.

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Speaker 1: But they did have a legit chance to win that

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Speaker 1: football game. They did, they really did. The Rams should

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Speaker 1: be one in one, the Viking should be two. And

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Speaker 1: oh right, well we'll get to Minnesota. We will get

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Speaker 1: to Minnesota, promise you. So Jacksonville is the other team

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Speaker 1: that did not cover. Now, they had a shot at

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Speaker 1: the back of door cut early in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 1: But let's be honest, choppy, and again I prefaced it

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Speaker 1: every time saying I'm not a scout, right, but Trevor

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Speaker 1: Lawrence because look terrible. He's dead last an EPA plus

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Speaker 1: C Poe And now it's two games, right, But at

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Speaker 1: this point, Chobby, I'm looking around and like a Jalen

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Speaker 1: Hurts is number nine in that stat now against two

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Speaker 1: games and he won't finish top ten. But he's there

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Speaker 1: right now. And he's basically a rookie, you know, as

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Speaker 1: far as experience. He's been there for year, but he's

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Speaker 1: only started what through four games, So if you look

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Speaker 1: at plan time, and again, I'm not a scout, but

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Speaker 1: I know that there wasn't a single scout on the

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Speaker 1: planet or one on TV, not the mel Coppers or

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Speaker 1: the Todd mcshay's, God rest his soul, whatever he's doing now.

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Speaker 1: But none of them, not one said that Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 1: or would say the Trevor Laich is not supremely more

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Speaker 1: talented than Jalen Hurts like and it's not even they're

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Speaker 1: not even the same stratosphere. And again that's a part

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Speaker 1: of their opinions, not mine. I'm not educated enough from

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Speaker 1: it to have an opinion like that. But I'm left with, Okay,

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Speaker 1: it is a greater than zero percent possibility that every

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Speaker 1: scout on Earth and every person on TV is wrong.

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Speaker 1: It could happen, right, Oh, but there is zero it's

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Speaker 1: not greater than zero percent. It's like these guys, even

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Speaker 1: the best quarterbacks are gonna have it. What a sixty

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Speaker 1: percent hit rate? Maybe? Maybe, maybe right? But when I

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Speaker 1: look at these two guys, play Hurt and Hurts isn't

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Speaker 1: playing like I said. He's playing decent right now. He

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Speaker 1: had didn't have such a good game last game. But

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Speaker 1: I'm left choppy, and I'm wondering what you think I

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Speaker 1: have to ask you, Like, do you think it is

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Speaker 1: a combination of urban Meyer being so far over his

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Speaker 1: skis and the personnel waited one more or the other

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Speaker 1: versus the Eagles coaching staff, who is experienced right at

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Speaker 1: least in the NFL, and they obviously do have a

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Speaker 1: better roster that Vegas told you that from the jump.

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Speaker 1: So I don't I'm just trying to put my finger like,

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Speaker 1: how could Trevor Lawrence look this bad? But yet in

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Speaker 1: the same league a guy like Jalen Hurts could have

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Speaker 1: some at least moderate success in his first five or

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Speaker 1: six starts. I don't understand it, man, It's it's a

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Speaker 1: great question. Um it's been two starts, I guess, and

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Speaker 1: then they don't forget Jalen Hurts and his first five

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Speaker 1: or six starts or ever, it has spanned across two years,

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Speaker 1: so he had an entire offseason because he didn't look

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Speaker 1: very good last years. Okay, everybody looked great. He's looking

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Speaker 1: much better this year. I don't ever want to make

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Speaker 1: a determination on a quarterback after two games or after

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Speaker 1: two years. That's just not me. But it is looking

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Speaker 1: you know, after two weeks and Trevor Lawrence has played,

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Speaker 1: you know, they haven't played world beaters Houston and Denver. No.

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Speaker 1: So you know he has looked bad. I wonder how

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Speaker 1: much of it is urban Meyer is his system is

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Speaker 1: just a collegiate system. I don't know. I really don't know.

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Speaker 1: Here's what I do know. Urban Meyer in his career

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Speaker 1: has coached two games with a talent disadvantage. And these

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Speaker 1: are the last two weeks. When he was at Florida,

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Speaker 1: he never had a talent disadvantage. At Ohio State, he

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Speaker 1: never had a talent disadvantage. At Utah, he had the

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Speaker 1: number one pick in the draft at quarterback. That's very true,

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Speaker 1: very true. And I know he was I mean not

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Speaker 1: probably on in his conference. But at Bowling Green. He

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Speaker 1: went at Bowling Green. Nobody wins at Bowling Green. No

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Speaker 1: nobody went to a Bowling Green. But guess what, when

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Speaker 1: you're playing in the MAC or the Whack or some

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Speaker 1: of these other conferences, you know you're the talent levels

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Speaker 1: relatively similar. It's a lot easier to outcoach your other guy.

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Speaker 1: You know, you're not playing the greatest coach of the world.

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Speaker 1: They're good coaches, but they're not like you know, it ain't.

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Speaker 1: Nick saban shacka smart found this out he went from VCU,

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Speaker 1: he was dominating, and he goes to Texas. Well in

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Speaker 1: the Big Twelve, you've got eight coaches that are just

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Speaker 1: as good as you are. So you know, I can

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Speaker 1: see a coach like Amy are dominating in at Bowling

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Speaker 1: Green or doing well and then going over to Utah

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Speaker 1: doing well in the Mountain West. Yeah, or whatever they

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Speaker 1: were at the time. That's a great point. That's kind

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Speaker 1: of reminds me of like, uh yeah, that kind of

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Speaker 1: reminds me like Matt Rule right at Temple, he was

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Speaker 1: such a beast. He just beat them, you know, beat

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Speaker 1: that conference. Unmercifully, they gets promoted to Baylor all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, boom, Baylor's Mac on the map. But that's,

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Speaker 1: like you said, that's a one and a special guy

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Speaker 1: that's going to ascend and not stay at those ranks.

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Speaker 1: So that's a great point. And Matt Rules Carolina and

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Speaker 1: Matt Rules doing great at Carolina, So I mean, this

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Speaker 1: is a coach that was gonna be fine no matter

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Speaker 1: where he goes, and Urban will probably fine. Matt Rule

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Speaker 1: had have a great year last year. Now he didn't,

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Speaker 1: but they did outperform or they did underperform. Their Pythagorian theorem.

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Speaker 1: They should have won more games than what they did,

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Speaker 1: so they kind of told you that they were building

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Speaker 1: going into this year. So we'll see if Sam Darnold

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Speaker 1: can keep up what he's been doing. That's my biggest

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Speaker 1: question with that team. Green Bay is another team that

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Speaker 1: did cover for us, and they made it out with

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Speaker 1: all their kneecaps and they went straight up. So that's

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Speaker 1: team number two. They went straight up. And we said

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Speaker 1: last week the down green from green Bay numbers was slight,

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Speaker 1: but Vegas was telling you not to sell their stock,

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Speaker 1: you know, after they got boat raced by New Orleans

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Speaker 1: and they even raised that spread after that happened, so

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Speaker 1: Vegas was telling you, hey, green Bay is gonna be okay.

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Speaker 1: The next team was the Giants. They did cover. They

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Speaker 1: were one offside penalty away from winning that game. I

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Speaker 1: don't even know if the guy was off side, you

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Speaker 1: know whatever. There's a couple of those calls this weekend. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And then the last team that did cover and did win,

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Speaker 1: that was team number three that won. We told you

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Speaker 1: three would win, so we had five covering three win

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Speaker 1: was Chicago. Now the rookie came in and almost coughed

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Speaker 1: up the game and even though everybody in Chicago wants

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Speaker 1: him to play over Dalton, and from a fan's perspective,

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Speaker 1: I get it right. I mean, rookie quarterbacks inspire hope

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Speaker 1: they you know, Dalton doesn't inspire anything except Bro the

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Speaker 1: hair clubs that rate had a hair. I mean, it's fantastic.

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Speaker 1: There's no debate about that. Probably best hair in the

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Speaker 1: entire league. I don't know who you can say it

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Speaker 1: was better. How is it redder? It's getting more red?

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know. If it's just because

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Speaker 1: the backdrop of the city of Chicago, everything's a little

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Speaker 1: paler up there because it's cold. I don't know, I

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Speaker 1: don't know, but it is. It's gotten flaming red like

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Speaker 1: a comic book character at this point. But just the

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Speaker 1: flow of that, I mean, just the faehawking. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's mag Devidson. Anybody, if anybody, what's that? I'm blown

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Speaker 1: away by that hair? Just blow Oh my god. So

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Speaker 1: I get that he doesn't aspire anything. Was my boy,

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Speaker 1: and that everybody wants, you know, feel us to play.

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Speaker 1: But you know, he didn't look ready. He didn't look ready.

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Speaker 1: He had a QBR before that was the worst in

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Speaker 1: the league. I mean Zach Wilson through four interceptions, he

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Speaker 1: had an eight in an eighth. He was twice as

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Speaker 1: good as Fields. But yet everybody wants feels the play.

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Speaker 1: And again I'm not a scout it maybe Fields will

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Speaker 1: be great. I don't know. We're all gonna find out

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Speaker 1: together in time. But here's what I do know. Choppy

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Speaker 1: and fans get lost in this, and it's all it

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Speaker 1: is funny to me. Like, what I do know is

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Speaker 1: Matt Naggy, for whatever you want to say about him,

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Speaker 1: he that dude has forgotten more about coaching football and

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Speaker 1: offense than any of us. Any of us will ever know.

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Speaker 1: None of us will ever coach in the NFL. None

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Speaker 1: of you sitting at home watching this will ever coach

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. So if you think that you know

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Speaker 1: you know better than the head coach of the team

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Speaker 1: and who should play quarterback, I think that's kind of foolish.

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Speaker 1: I understand it. You're a fan and you get emotional

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Speaker 1: and you just want to see the new guy. So

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Speaker 1: I get it. I do get it. But all I'm

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Speaker 1: saying is I don't understand how you could legitimately think that,

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Speaker 1: especially when you saw him play. And let's not forget

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Speaker 1: the fans of Chicago are delusional anyway. I'm old enough

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Speaker 1: to remember that after Mitchie Boys preseason game, they were

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Speaker 1: calling him ten God that was his name, and then

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Speaker 1: they couldn't run that dude out of town fastened up.

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Speaker 1: So fans are fickle, right, fans in fields is the

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Speaker 1: tells of the town right now. Well, if he's putting

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Speaker 1: up fours, he's not gonna be for long that I

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Speaker 1: can promise you. Yeah, Chico, recap Chicago's not Chicago's are

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Speaker 1: the best place in the world for a for somebody

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Speaker 1: who is struggling Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, etc. Yeah, they will,

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Speaker 1: they will let you know. They will let you know.

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Speaker 1: So let's recap this up all right. So to recap

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Speaker 1: we did. We went. We told you bet these seven

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Speaker 1: teams blind go four and three. Historically you would have

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Speaker 1: went five and two. And if you couple that with

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Speaker 1: our college free pix, you had a six and three

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Speaker 1: ATS card last week, Choppy. That's sixty seven percent we

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Speaker 1: handed out right here for free on this very program

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Speaker 1: and all you had to do was watch. That's not

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Speaker 1: a bad deal, right there. Body. No, that's free money

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Speaker 1: right there. That's good stuff. Okay, So that's a look

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Speaker 1: back at last week. We will take a look ahead

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Speaker 1: at what happens this week on the football four one

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Speaker 1: K and plus we've got our best bets of the

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Speaker 1: weekend still to come. I'm r J Choppy, he is

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Speaker 1: bow Repka. This is the football four oh one K.

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Speaker 1: Before there was a draft, you could size up a

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Speaker 1: Back to football four oh one K Welcome back to

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Speaker 1: the football four h one. Hey, I'm RJ. Choppy. He

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Speaker 1: is a bow Rep. We just looked back at last week.

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Speaker 1: Let's look ahead, bow and what we have with the

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Speaker 1: week ahead. There are a lot of games in the

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Speaker 1: National Football League that are of interest to us in

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Speaker 1: this week is or not? Yeah, there's a lot. And

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Speaker 1: the reason why is because our powerings start out so

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Speaker 1: accurate this year. I usually takes a couple of weeks

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Speaker 1: for the day to kind of come in. This week, man,

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Speaker 1: we started under fire. There's been twenty nine what we

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Speaker 1: consider greatable games or a side that you would bet

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Speaker 1: based on a delta twenty nine out of the first

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Speaker 1: for thirty two and we're seventeen and twelve in those

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Speaker 1: twenty nine games. That's fifty eight point six percent if

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Speaker 1: you bet every single game, and Choppy, you can't make

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Speaker 1: a living betting every single NFL game. So I will

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Speaker 1: challenge anyone anywhere in the world to beat that record

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Speaker 1: right there, betting every game because you ain't gonna do it. No,

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Speaker 1: you're not. You can't. You can pick every NFL game

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Speaker 1: and you will be picking against yourself at the end

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Speaker 1: of the year like you're you're You're just not you.

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Speaker 1: There's a reason these buildings are so big in Vegas.

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Speaker 1: You can't figure against the NFL now, not you you know, NFL.

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Speaker 1: You got to pick your spots, just like in college.

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Speaker 1: But the thing is it's all relative. So we do

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Speaker 1: more volume in college, you're doing NFL. But that's because

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Speaker 1: there's you know, more games, that's why. But we stay

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Speaker 1: within a certain percentage of the games we play and

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Speaker 1: the games that are played, and that's really where the

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Speaker 1: sweet spot comes into us win any money at the

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Speaker 1: clip that we want to win money yet, But I

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Speaker 1: just wanted to throw that out there, that we could

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Speaker 1: have played every game and been up five units. That's

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Speaker 1: pretty dang good. Yeah, that's very very good. All right,

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Speaker 1: So what kind of games we have this week and

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Speaker 1: look ahead? There's few so Bills minus nine versus Washington

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Speaker 1: computer likes Washington here and shoppy. What are your thoughts

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Speaker 1: right now on both of these teams we've seen two

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Speaker 1: games versus kind of much expected headed into the season.

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Speaker 1: You know, I like Taylor Heidekey, Um, Washington's defense isn't

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Speaker 1: as good as we thought it was, and that was

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Speaker 1: predictable because defenses regress year to year. That was just

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Speaker 1: you know, the regression Bowl. And that's what that's where

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Speaker 1: this game is, Buffalo Washington. This is the Regression Bowl.

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Speaker 1: I love it, the the Heineken Regression Bowl. I like it. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen regressed as well. Oh my god. So that's

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Speaker 1: that's what this kind of hasn't me stuck on white

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Speaker 1: like the Pewter Swick Washington, and uh, this reason right here,

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Speaker 1: Like you said, the defense has not played lots out

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Speaker 1: like I did last year. Like you said, very predictable

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Speaker 1: on that. But here's the thing about Josh Allen. So,

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen in two thoy eighteen was thirtieth in EPA

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Speaker 1: plus C POE. He was twenty first and two thousand

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Speaker 1: nineteen and twenty twenty he was third MVP level, right

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Speaker 1: right behind Rodgers, right up there with Rodgers. But now

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Speaker 1: so far he's twenty fourth through two games. So you

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Speaker 1: gotta ask yourself, what is the truth about Josh Allen,

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Speaker 1: is that two years plus two games that he is

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Speaker 1: a blow average quarterback, in fact, a bottom third in

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Speaker 1: the league quarterback. Or is it the one year of

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Speaker 1: sixteen games where he's an MVP. I don't know, I don't.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I usually kind of finds its water level

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Speaker 1: somewhere in between. But if he's an average quarterback, which

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Speaker 1: is kind of what that grades out too, then Buffalo

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Speaker 1: is not a super Bowl contender period because their defense stinks.

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Speaker 1: They can't run the ball, and if he's not gonna

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Speaker 1: be superman, if he's not gonna lead them in rushing

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Speaker 1: and I mean though forty yards, they're I mean, they're

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Speaker 1: an average football team if you if you look. Now,

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Speaker 1: I love their coach and I'll love how they're building

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Speaker 1: the roster, but they're not there yet. So of course

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00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 1: the Cutter's gonna like Washington. All the UNDERLA they likes Washington.

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Speaker 1: And again if now, if, if, if Alan comes out

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Speaker 1: this week and it's back to the MVP level and

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00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,640
Speaker 1: toast this Washington defense. Okay, all bets are off because

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Speaker 1: Haneken's not gonna be able to sustain a shootout with

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Speaker 1: this offense, right, that's just not gonna happen. They're not

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Speaker 1: built for that. But a Washington out run the ball

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Speaker 1: like they've been doing for a couple of games. Play,

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Speaker 1: you know, get back to maybe an average defense and

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Speaker 1: maybe they get healthy because of Buffalo and how bad

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen's playing. I don't know, but definitely looking at

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Speaker 1: Washington on that one. Okay, so Washington and that's they're

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Speaker 1: getting nine? Nine man, Yeah, that's a high number. That's

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Speaker 1: a really really high number for me to give up

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Speaker 1: on that one. Any what are the games do you

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Speaker 1: like this week? In terms of just you know, you

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Speaker 1: see some of these lines are like, oh these stand out? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so Brown's amount of seven versus the Bears, this creates

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Speaker 1: out as a zero delta for me, so or for

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Speaker 1: the US so no play here. But it also tells

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Speaker 1: me that Vegas is expecting Andy to play because this

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Speaker 1: line would be likely more than like nine or ten

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Speaker 1: if it was Fields. So wait a second, hang on,

424
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:50,880
Speaker 1: I just got this in the notification box. Oh, Justin

425
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:58,639
Speaker 1: Fields will make his first start Monday Sunday. What is

426
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 1: the line? Does the line move yet? I have not

427
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 1: This literally just came out a couple of minutes ago.

428
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 1: So I would be willing to bet that this line

429
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:10,439
Speaker 1: moves to like say closer. I was just about to say,

430
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 1: if you like Justin Fields and you think you might

431
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 1: start hanging there, hang in there, don't better yet, don't

432
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 1: better at the seven. Let your points come in like

433
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 1: Suckerman Suctor Vegas, and you know if you think Fields

434
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,119
Speaker 1: is the man. But what I was gonna say, as

435
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 1: this rider has now become irrelevant. If you like Cleveland,

436
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,880
Speaker 1: you're better better now? Well, I guess you better better

437
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,400
Speaker 1: now because we just found out that Fields is gonna play.

438
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 1: This number is gonna go up. You're gonna have to

439
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:35,640
Speaker 1: lay more points. You don't really want to do that

440
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 1: the high variants, you know, rookie, like what Fields is

441
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 1: gonna because you honestly don't know what he is yet.

442
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 1: Nobody knows what he is. Yet it could be great.

443
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 1: He could stink if you want to lay his little

444
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,200
Speaker 1: possible points to that as you can, well, let me

445
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,960
Speaker 1: ask you this. Let me ask you this. What does

446
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 1: the number have to be for you to bet Chicago

447
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 1: and Fields m I'd have to I'd have to get

448
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 1: to ten. I'd have to get to ten. If they

449
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 1: got to ten, I'd feel pretty good because you know Baker,

450
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 1: he's been very very efficient, very very efficient this year.

451
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 1: But he's thrown one touchdown pass in two games, and

452
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 1: this is gonna be the best defense he's faced. Dvoa

453
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 1: was by a mile. He's faced two of the worst

454
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 1: defenses in the league. He's done one touchdown, but he

455
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,439
Speaker 1: hasn't looked bad. I'm not saying he's looked bad, but

456
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 1: he has not been explosive. You know, they're not putting

457
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:27,680
Speaker 1: up a ton of points. And against the Chicago defense,

458
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,640
Speaker 1: he's been pretty good this year so far. Yeah, I'd

459
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 1: like ten, like tenor rookie. Maybe roll the dice there. Okay,

460
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 1: very nice, very nice. Let's take a look at Baltimore

461
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,640
Speaker 1: versus Detroit. This is an interesting one because Baltimore could

462
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 1: be two and oh very easily. They had a tough

463
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:44,959
Speaker 1: loss to the Raiders and then they kind of had

464
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 1: a lucky I don't say a lucky win, but a

465
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,640
Speaker 1: comeback win against the Chiefs. That have you ever run

466
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 1: that game back? Give the Chiefs the same eleven point

467
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 1: lead one hundred more times, ninety out more times, they

468
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 1: probably wouldn't. Ninety seven of those games at least Detroit

469
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:04,120
Speaker 1: mean while has looked really bad at times this year,

470
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 1: and then they've also looked like they're a semi competent

471
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 1: football team. Uh, and I want you know Dan Campbell's

472
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 1: maybe he's stabilizing things. Jared Goff looks like he's stabilizing

473
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 1: things at times. And then it started to rain. Once

474
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 1: it started to rain, he went to crap because he's

475
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 1: got those little tiny hands. Um, he needs to wear

476
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 1: a glove. Oh, he needs he needs to rock a glove.

477
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 1: How do you like this game? Shaking up? So the

478
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:33,679
Speaker 1: computer does like the lines here, and you know the

479
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: line's been upgraded at all in the system even though

480
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 1: they're O and two. They played relatively, they played a

481
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 1: good half, they played a close game against San France. No,

482
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 1: because overall it just it gets to be too much

483
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 1: like the landslide of you know, stats against them. This

484
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 1: becomes too much. But you know they haven't been downgraded either,

485
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:55,880
Speaker 1: which is the biggest thing for an O and two team.

486
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 1: If you're not downgraded going two, that means you're probably

487
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 1: doing some things right. And the lines are like you said,

488
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 1: and you're getting one point of value here from the

489
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 1: opening line where it was a Baltimore has gone up

490
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 1: to where it was seven and a half. Now it's

491
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 1: eight and a half, and quite frankly, Baltimore is so

492
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 1: beat up. So I mean there, if the lines are

493
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,199
Speaker 1: looking to buy their kneecaps, they run out of dneps

494
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 1: to buy. Right There's they're a way down there on

495
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 1: the depth chart. Now. I know, in a in a

496
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 1: one game situation like what was in Kansas City, Lamar

497
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,119
Speaker 1: is an a special enough player he can put the

498
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 1: whole team on his back and say, we're not gonna

499
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 1: lose tonight. Somehow, some way, I'm gonna find a way.

500
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 1: We're gonna don't care if I have to run it

501
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 1: one hundred times, We're gonna go and we're gonna go

502
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: win this football game. But that kind of effort is

503
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 1: not sustainable week in a week out. So you gotta

504
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 1: wonder against the Lions team, whos are clearly better than

505
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 1: even with all the injuries, is that same effort going

506
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 1: to be Is that max all out effort going to

507
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 1: be there because they just need to win, They just

508
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 1: need to get through the game. They don't I mean,

509
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 1: NFL teams don't get paid to cover, right, be a

510
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 1: lot easier about these games that they did, but they don't, right,

511
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: They just get paid to win. So is that going

512
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 1: to take over? Now, here's what I will say about that.

513
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 1: In normal situation, I would say, yeah, one hundred percent.

514
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 1: This is why you played a Troit one. This is

515
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: a different situation. This John Harball cat, he's a different,

516
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:21,159
Speaker 1: different dude, man. This dude is one nineteen straight preseason games.

517
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 1: He does not like to lose football games in any circumstance.

518
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 1: And he doesn't only want to win, he wants to

519
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: win big. And like he told you about Army last week,

520
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 1: Baltimore's offense is built just like a beer triple option offens.

521
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 1: That's literally what they do. And with that kind of offense,

522
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 1: you can just do what you do and run up

523
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 1: the score naturally because they can't stop you. You're built

524
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 1: so well, you execute so well, nobody can stop you.

525
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 1: And here's one one other thing that would worry me

526
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 1: about taking the lines. Here is Lamar in his career.

527
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,439
Speaker 1: I'm sorry I should say since two thousand nineteenth has

528
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:59,360
Speaker 1: become a full time starter. He's had fourteen games where

529
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 1: he's been favorite by eight or more. He's nine and

530
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 1: five a t s in those games. So he when

531
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 1: he's supposed to win big. He does win big, and

532
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 1: I think that's a product of his coach being a

533
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 1: bully number one and number two. I think it's a

534
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 1: product without that's the offense they've built. Like I said,

535
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. They can't really take a playoff. They

536
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 1: can't really take the series off because the plays they call,

537
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 1: you know, want they're coming to hit you in the mouth.

538
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:24,920
Speaker 1: And that's just what they do. Like there is no

539
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 1: kind of spare plays for them, like some teams don't have.

540
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 1: They got their A plays, their B plays. They don't

541
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 1: have any B plays. They just go so. But the

542
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: Peters do like the lines. But that that's what would

543
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 1: scare me about taking them. Welcome back to the football

544
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: four oh one k r J Choppy from one oh

545
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 1: five through the fan bo Repka Football glory Hole, and

546
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 1: let's do a little rapid fire look ahead at the

547
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,440
Speaker 1: week that we have here. Seventeen to twelve against the

548
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 1: spread on all the game greatable games so far this season,

549
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 1: that's around what fifty seven and a half. That'll uh,

550
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 1: that'll make you some money over the course of the season.

551
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 1: You're not gonna you're not gonna cry over that one.

552
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,159
Speaker 1: That's pretty good. That is pretty dang good. Not challenging

553
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: anybody to do better than that grade in twenty nine

554
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 1: games out of thirty two so far. Yeah, if you're

555
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:16,880
Speaker 1: if you're doing better than that, you're one of two things.

556
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 1: You're either lucky or lying or brow one yeah or both.

557
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 1: You know. Look, I'm comfortable with lyne to people. I

558
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:25,680
Speaker 1: I generally try to do that as much as that

559
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 1: possibly kend. But all right, let's just let's just wrap it.

560
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 1: Fire down these games Buffalo Washington. This was a nine

561
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 1: point spread by Buffalo, and that's already been bent down

562
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 1: a little bit, hasn't all the way down to seven

563
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 1: and a half. I grabbed it at nine as soon

564
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 1: as I could. Computers still like Washington here, and the

565
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 1: reason why is if you look at the difference between

566
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 1: seven and a half right now Washington Buffalo. Preseason total,

567
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 1: Vegas was expecting Buffalo to be four and a half

568
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 1: wints the head of Washington or two and a half

569
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 1: wins to the head of Washington. Right now, this line

570
00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:00,160
Speaker 1: is telling either close to four ahead of Washington. You're

571
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 1: still getting value here. There's no way you could up

572
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 1: great Buffalo this much or downgrade the Washington football team

573
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: that much. And the biggest thing to me is Josh

574
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 1: Allen twenty eighteen shoppy. He was thirty EBA plus CPOE

575
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:16,719
Speaker 1: twenty first and twenty nineteen third in twenty twenty MVP level. Right,

576
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 1: he's twenty fourth again so far this year. So are

577
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 1: you gonna believe two seasons plus two games of Josh

578
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 1: Allen being a below average, you can bottom third quarterback?

579
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: Are you're gonna believe one season of MVP level? That's

580
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 1: the biggest question in this one. Yeah. I call this

581
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 1: the regression Bowl. Both of these This is you know, Josh,

582
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 1: you gonna regress a little bit, and we knew the

583
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 1: Washington defense is gonna regress a little bit. Defenses don't

584
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 1: kind of stabilize themselves year to year unless you're like,

585
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 1: you know, one of those all time great tight legion

586
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 1: of Boom Baltimore Ravens to you know type defenses. So

587
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 1: I like this, I like this pick a lot. Uh

588
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 1: Cleveland Chicago. Cleveland started out with a seven. How did

589
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: the line move when just some fields got put in?

590
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 1: If it moves at all, because he is now the starter,

591
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 1: it didn't move one inch, Shobby, So You're getting huge

592
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 1: value here on Cleveland because this green, this game was

593
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 1: seven before the season kicked off, it was seven before

594
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 1: the week kicked off, and it's seven out of the

595
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 1: announcements been made, so there was no pre bacon as

596
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 1: we kind of sometimes see when Vegas kind of figures

597
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 1: the quarterback's gonna be out. None of That's what Vegas

598
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 1: is telling you is Andy Dalton and Justin Fields are

599
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 1: equal because the spread, and that is not true. That's insane.

600
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 1: There's no stats to say that that's true. There's nothing

601
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 1: said it is true Justin Fields that a q R

602
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 1: four four last week, Your boy Zach Wilson had an

603
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: eight and he threw four picks, so he was one

604
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 1: hundred percent better than Justin Fields last year last week.

605
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 1: There's no other equal huge value here on the browns now. However,

606
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 1: if you are a Bears fan or you like to pick,

607
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 1: you want to back this pick, here's one thing to

608
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 1: give you some positivity. I guess I would say, if

609
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 1: you're gonna ever bet a dog, there's only two reasons

610
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 1: to bet it in vegases because you're looking for you're

611
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 1: looking for variance. Period. There's two big main reasons where

612
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 1: you get variance. One is the number is off, right,

613
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 1: That's why you bet at all. You believe the number

614
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 1: to be off. Number two the variance of the game

615
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 1: itself and choppy. There is nothing, nothing that brings higher

616
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 1: variance in the NFL than a rookie quarterback or your

617
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 1: boy Jamis Winston. That's about it. You never know what's

618
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 1: Jami as you get and with a rookie quarterback, they

619
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 1: can be great or they could be terrible, and it

620
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 1: is a huge gap between both. So if you like

621
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: a dog, it's always because of variance. This is a high,

622
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 1: high variance game. He could go out to be magnificent.

623
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 1: He could go out there put up another four and

624
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 1: they get beat by forty. So yeah, that really could

625
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 1: really good in this one. And it's interesting because you know,

626
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 1: rookie quarterbacks making their first start. I mean, we don't

627
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 1: need to tell you that they don't usually fare very

628
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 1: well in that week one that the first start they have.

629
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 1: So it's an interesting game. Lions in Baltimore, this is

630
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 1: this thing was like eight and a half and you

631
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 1: know what are the Lions? I mean the Lions can

632
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 1: play good for a half. They put two good halves together,

633
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 1: and they put two crappy halves together. And I think

634
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 1: that's why the Lions are the Lions, that they're just

635
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 1: not a very good football team. Jared Goff is a

636
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 1: you know, a stable quarterback, but he's not gonna win

637
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 1: you a ton of games. I don't think I like

638
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 1: Jared Goff most more than most people. But you know,

639
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 1: they're given they're given away, or they're getting more than

640
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 1: a touchdown against the Ravens team. That is, they could

641
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 1: beat Kansas City or they could blow a game to

642
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 1: the Raiders. I don't know. Yeah, computers like this game.

643
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 1: I like this game. Like the Lions plus the Eights.

644
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 1: You are getting at least one point of value here

645
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 1: towards the Lions. This is a more low variance game, right.

646
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 1: Both teams are known commodities. You know what they're going

647
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 1: to do. You know what the Ravens want to do.

648
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 1: And that's the only thing that gives me pause in

649
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 1: this game. So Devil's Advocate, if you look on the

650
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 1: Ravens side, Lamar Jackson when he is favored by eight

651
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 1: or more points two thousand and nineteen sin since he

652
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 1: became the regular starter, he is nine and five ats

653
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 1: favored by eight or more. So when he gets to

654
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 1: be a big favorite and he's expected to win, they

655
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 1: go win. Because if Vegas is expected to be that

656
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 1: big a favorite, like, there's no various what Baltimore does.

657
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 1: Vegas knows what Baltimore does. We all know what Baltimore does,

658
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 1: and Vegas that you know they're gonna do that and

659
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 1: they're gonna win by more and touchdown they usually do

660
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 1: more times than not. So that's what gives me pause

661
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 1: on it. But you know, I do like the line.

662
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: There's no way you can't like the Lions with the

663
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 1: number in the value. But again, will it be a

664
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 1: top play? I don't know if Peter does like the Lions.

665
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 1: Have the Lions been downgraded U at all? Like their

666
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 1: preseason win totals like five and they're still on track

667
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 1: for hitting the under. But yeah, they ungraded. They haven't

668
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 1: been downgraded. They haven't been upgraded. Like you said, they've

669
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 1: played two good halves and two bad halves. In other words,

670
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 1: they are they are who we thought they were, right,

671
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 1: that's the run of the season. So they're They're not

672
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 1: a good football team over all. They haven't been a

673
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 1: good football team, but they have not been like land

674
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 1: a level surprised terrible. So that's the reason why they

675
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: have not been downgraded, but obviously haven't been upgraded either.

676
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,840
Speaker 1: All right, Jack's Arizona. Jack's getting what a seven and

677
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: a half? Seven and a half, So this is a

678
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 1: five point line moved from the original set. All downgraded

679
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:17,879
Speaker 1: on Jacksonville. Here's what I gotta say about this game

680
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 1: Jacksonville is what is in the falling knife position. So

681
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: in the world of finance and stock market, that is

682
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,839
Speaker 1: trying to catch a stocket. It's very very lowest. It's

683
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 1: called trying to catch a falling knife. It's very very

684
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 1: hard to do and not get cut right. And Chobby,

685
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 1: I remember this from last year. The Cowboys were in

686
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 1: this position. I think they were favored or they were

687
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 1: dogs with the thirteen or fifteen to the Steelers when

688
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: Steelers like ten and nine or ten and hoh, and

689
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 1: you text me and actually, how is this the biggest

690
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 1: dog the Cowboys has ever been? And it was like

691
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: the third biggest. I think they were like eighteen or

692
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 1: nineteen points, like in the eighties sometime or some point

693
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 1: or maybe point too squared, I don't remember. Anyway, we

694
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 1: were trying to say, Okay, is this the end of it?

695
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 1: Is this the falling knife we can catch? We did

696
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 1: bet the Cowboy was that week, and they did obviously

697
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 1: that They almost won the game and they definitely covered

698
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:07,800
Speaker 1: the big spread. So Jacksonville in that position, if you

699
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 1: try to catch them too early, you're gonna get cut,

700
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 1: you know. But if you if you wait too much

701
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 1: for the bounce back, you're gonna lose your value too.

702
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 1: It's a very very tough game to bet at this point.

703
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 1: All right, Kansas City and the Chargers. Chargers, you know,

704
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 1: looked really good against Washington, looked their offense were good

705
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys. They just didn't score points. It was

706
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:28,240
Speaker 1: what I call a fake low scoring game Cowboys and Chargers.

707
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 1: But the Chiefs just don't cover anymore. Yeah, they don't

708
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 1: cover their two and eleven and the last thirteen acs.

709
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 1: It's funny you mentioned the fake low scoring game because

710
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 1: there was quite a handle on the over there in Vegas,

711
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, they're yellow filled the field.

712
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 1: I'm not saying, I'm just saying, you know, sometimes games

713
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 1: go a certain way for certain reasons, and that game

714
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 1: should have been very high schooling, like you said, but

715
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,720
Speaker 1: every time anybody made a play, we had some laundry

716
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 1: on the field, so that was interesting to me. Overall,

717
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 1: this a little bit value here to the Chargers. I mean,

718
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 1: I don't I don't know how you can bet the

719
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 1: Chiefs at this point. They're two and eleven and the

720
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 1: last thirteen against the spread. Now, they're a great football team.

721
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 1: They've got the best player in football, and there's no

722
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 1: doubt about that. But him by himself, without you know,

723
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: a defense that can stop anybody, it's not good enough

724
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 1: to cover these big numbers they keep playing. So it's

725
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 1: either Chargers or passed. For me, how we how we

726
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 1: deal with this Pittsburgh since he game with Ben's injury. Yeah,

727
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 1: that one's a tricky one. I think the downgrade is

728
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 1: proper on that. It's still got a little bit of

729
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 1: value actually to Pittsburgh, just because since he's been upgraded

730
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 1: so much in the public and Joe Burrow again he's

731
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 1: below average. You'd be looking at defence analytics like I

732
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: know everybody in since he wants to believe they wanted

733
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 1: to be great, and he hasn't been bad, right, he's

734
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:48,240
Speaker 1: been right. Where a guy with less than fifteen starts

735
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 1: should be, so not dogging the kid at all. But

736
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 1: again it's been a little bit false upgrade on it.

737
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:57,879
Speaker 1: But if if Ben really it comes out of if TJ.

738
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 1: Watt can't go, I'm out in this game, because that

739
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 1: dude is They're pretty much their whole defense. He makes

740
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:05,359
Speaker 1: He's the motor that makes it run. If that guy's out,

741
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 1: I'm out. Let's keep looking at some of these look

742
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:16,360
Speaker 1: ahead games Vegas and Miami. No Tua no tua for

743
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,760
Speaker 1: Vegas in Miami, and I have not seen a line

744
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 1: change in this at all, which tells me that Vegas

745
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 1: looks at Tua and Brissette as the same. Well, this

746
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 1: one actually moved three and a half from the original number,

747
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 1: so I think this one was one of the ones

748
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 1: he said like earlier that was baked in. They weren't

749
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 1: expecting two to play because three and a half nounced four.

750
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 1: So it's moved another a half point after confirmation. But

751
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 1: that would mean that two is three and a half

752
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,879
Speaker 1: points better than Brissette, and that's just not true. Two

753
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 1: has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.

754
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:48,840
Speaker 1: If you look at all the advanced analytics, he's not

755
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 1: even an average starter for our ATS rankings. You know,

756
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 1: him and Brissette are right about even in ATS rankings.

757
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 1: And if you think that's crazy, right now, they're ranked

758
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:02,359
Speaker 1: thirtieth and thirty first in CPOE plus EPA and they're

759
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 1: like hundreds of a you know, point apart. So too.

760
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 1: I mean, he just hasn't been that good. He hasn't

761
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 1: been that good. Much of a game changed now, Jacob says,

762
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 1: not a good quarterback. Let's not say that he's great.

763
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 1: But the downgrade here has been so severe you're you're

764
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 1: getting value on Miami. And here is a trend, probably

765
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:23,320
Speaker 1: the trend of the week here, choppy. Since twoy fifteen,

766
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 1: teams coming off a shutout loss, which Miami just came

767
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:31,280
Speaker 1: off of are twenty five and two ats eighty percent

768
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,360
Speaker 1: they hit against the spread the next week. That's pretty

769
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 1: strong trend. That's twenty seven games and six years worth

770
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,480
Speaker 1: of data. So it's it's kind of hard to buck that.

771
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 1: And eventually you're gonna get that Vegas letdown. Now it's

772
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 1: gonna be this week. Who knows, But I have to

773
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 1: lean Miami here. Oh okay, all right, I mean I

774
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:51,320
Speaker 1: don't know that two is three and a half points.

775
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 1: Better than air at this point. I'll tell you this,

776
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 1: though I am bullish on Vegas. I think they are

777
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:02,239
Speaker 1: a good team. Man. This is the game of the

778
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 1: week Rams Tampa. It's basically a pick him. Whoever you

779
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 1: think is going to win the game, Bet that team.

780
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 1: And Tampa's only a one point favorite. Yeah, one, one

781
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 1: and a halfpen on which book you look at. So

782
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:18,359
Speaker 1: this line has moved one and a half to two

783
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 1: points to Tampa Bay from the open, and I'm not

784
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 1: sure it's justified. Right. Both teams are two and oh,

785
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 1: both teams are one and one against the spread. The

786
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 1: computers are firmly on the Rams here. However, my one

787
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:33,360
Speaker 1: word of caution on this, and it's this is a

788
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 1: good trend, probably not as good as a shut out,

789
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 1: trind but Tom Brady in his career as an underdog

790
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 1: or laying less than two and a half points, it's

791
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:45,360
Speaker 1: thirty nine and thirteen eighty s. That's seventy he covers

792
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 1: when it's basically a fifty fifty game. So take it

793
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 1: with a grain of salt for what it's worth. But

794
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 1: I don't think Tampa Bay is going seventeen and oz.

795
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:55,360
Speaker 1: And if they're gonna lose a game. This is definitely

796
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:58,000
Speaker 1: one of those that is a losable game for sure.

797
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:01,879
Speaker 1: And they lost last year to Jared Off they did.

798
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:05,800
Speaker 1: Tampa did um and you know, like maybe maybe the

799
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:09,800
Speaker 1: Rams defense was better last year. The number three or

800
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 1: four I think right now in Dvoa, they've they've been

801
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 1: really good. They continue to be really good. They should

802
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 1: have lost the Indie. You know, they should have lost

803
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 1: that game. But you know, uh, if you think the

804
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 1: Rams are better this year, and a lot of people do,

805
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 1: in Tampa's defense is as what it was last season,

806
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:28,799
Speaker 1: then then this this would be on that Ram side. Uh.

807
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:31,439
Speaker 1: The the two and o O and two team also

808
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:35,359
Speaker 1: done as the Minnesota Vikings against the one and one

809
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:39,439
Speaker 1: Slash should be two and O team Seattle Minnesota getting

810
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 1: a pair. Yeah, so this lines went three and a

811
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 1: half points to Seattle, and the underlying data does not

812
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,719
Speaker 1: support it. Minnesota should be you say, two and oh

813
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 1: they should absolutely be one and one, and not just

814
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 1: because the missfield go any square could see that. It's

815
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 1: actually some underlying data called windshare percentage, and it's I'm

816
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 1: gonnaetto the calculation, but anyway, basically what it's saying is

817
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 1: they should at least have one win within the two

818
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 1: games combined, so they should be one in one. Minnesota

819
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 1: is at home, their desperate. They have an above average

820
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 1: quarterback and I don't care what you think about whatever

821
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 1: is the Kirk Cousins, He's an above average NFL quarterback.

822
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 1: Period in Seattle's bottom third in the league and rushing

823
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 1: BBOA defense, Minnesota wants to run the ball. They ran

824
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 1: for one seventy seven last week against Arizona, and that's

825
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:29,359
Speaker 1: why they look so much better. It's why they stayed

826
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 1: in that game. That's why they should have won that game.

827
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 1: And Arizona has the tenth best DBA defense against the

828
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: run so far, and that's with one hundred and seventy

829
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:39,479
Speaker 1: seven yards against them. So I see pretty big value

830
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 1: in the vikings right here, all right, And finally, you know,

831
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 1: I think the Cowboys are massively undervalued this year, which

832
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 1: is odd because the Cowboys don't usually get undervalued in Vegas.

833
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 1: But you know there their their line against Philly is

834
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 1: between three and a half and four. That to me

835
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 1: is it means they think if Philly is better than

836
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 1: the early season, or the Cowboys are not better than

837
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:08,960
Speaker 1: the early season, which I don't know how you can

838
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 1: see there's this cowboy team and thought they were the

839
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 1: same old cowboys. This team played the champs to within

840
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 1: a point at the end, they had a one point leader,

841
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 1: should say, and then they beat a everybody's darling Charger team.

842
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean this game has moved points to Philly.

843
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 1: And so now it's saying alas two wins better than

844
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 1: Philly on the season. That's a whole win downgrade from

845
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 1: the preseason projection. Dallas is over under was nine and

846
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:38,879
Speaker 1: a half, Philly was six and a half. Now they're

847
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 1: saying they're within two games of each other. Now the

848
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:43,279
Speaker 1: computers are split on this, because Philly does have some

849
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 1: pretty good underlying data so far through two games. However,

850
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 1: we had San Francisco last week because we thought Philly

851
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 1: was getting overvalued. San Francisco go in there cover three

852
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:53,799
Speaker 1: and a half their second game of the road, which

853
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 1: they did. They dominated that game overall. I still think

854
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 1: Philly is getting overvalued. I don't know if it's the

855
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:04,319
Speaker 1: Cowboys getting undervalued or Philly getting overvalued. I gotta think

856
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 1: it's gonna be Philly getting overvalued, to be honest with you,

857
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,840
Speaker 1: because the Cowboys do not get. And you and I

858
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:11,919
Speaker 1: have talked about it, and it's crazy. We talked about

859
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 1: it all there, all the time. The Cowboys are not

860
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 1: getting in the love that they usually get in the

861
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 1: Vegas marketplace. They're just note And I don't know if

862
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 1: that generation has passed there where they just don't get

863
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 1: the over inflation. Maybe that's where we're at. It's an

864
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:26,319
Speaker 1: interesting thought going forward, but it's got to be they're

865
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 1: not getting, they're not getting. I want to say they've

866
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 1: gotta be downgraded at all, but Philly is getting upgraded,

867
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 1: and I think it's a little bit fraudulent. Cowboys minus

868
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 1: three and a half looks tasty. If it keeps going down,

869
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 1: you get the Cowboys minus three. Oh man, we'll see

870
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:43,759
Speaker 1: what happens. We'll see what happens there. Okay, that is

871
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 1: our look ahead at this week coming up in the

872
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:48,400
Speaker 1: National Football League, we got our best bets still to

873
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:51,919
Speaker 1: come college football, pizza money parlay and an NFL player prop.

874
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 1: It's all coming up on the football four oh one K.

875
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:02,439
Speaker 1: Welcome back to the football four oh one K. I'm

876
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 1: r J. Choppy, he is bow Repka and we got

877
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 1: a little best bets action in college football. We got

878
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,879
Speaker 1: a NFL player prop to give you as well, plus

879
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 1: the pizza money parlay. First up, Auburn against Georgia's State.

880
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 1: Georgia's State. Man, that was a that was a tough

881
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 1: game for my Tennessee volunteers a couple of years ago.

882
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 1: I want to talk about that one. I don't see

883
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:24,879
Speaker 1: Auburn pull in the same kind of crap the balls did.

884
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 1: But let's take a look at Georgia State. Here in Auburn,

885
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 1: boys and girls, if you can't tell the love runs

886
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 1: deep and so does the hatred. He had to put

887
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 1: this in there. You had to put a Georgia State

888
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 1: game in there. Sometimes we do do things on purpose.

889
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 1: But anyway, Auburn minus twenty seven versus Georgia State, this

890
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:45,719
Speaker 1: line shoppy should be thirty four. And you have to

891
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:48,799
Speaker 1: ask yourself anytime you bet a big favorite, are they

892
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,759
Speaker 1: going to be motivated to cover? Right? Well? Alburn's coming

893
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:53,880
Speaker 1: off that tough loss to Penn State, so they should

894
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:56,400
Speaker 1: be looking to get healthy here. Now there is a

895
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:59,799
Speaker 1: look ahead factored at LSU next week. But Georgia State

896
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,840
Speaker 1: so bad they lost fifty nine to seventeen at UNC

897
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 1: with the exact same spread this is this week. Obviously

898
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 1: they didn't cover. UNC is ranked lower in our power

899
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:12,279
Speaker 1: ranks than Auburn is by a few points. And I

900
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 1: believe they're twenty three and twenty four respectively in the

901
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 1: polls right now, so they're pretty close to each other.

902
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 1: Extreme value here on Auburn, and I think the logan

903
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 1: heads getting a little bit too much factored into this point.

904
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 1: That's why I think you're getting the value here. But yeah,

905
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:29,880
Speaker 1: I think Auburn goes and covers war Eagle Baby. All right?

906
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:34,280
Speaker 1: What about Lattech in North Texas, the mean green twelve

907
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:39,239
Speaker 1: point dogs du La Tech? Oh, Lattech? We had on

908
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:43,160
Speaker 1: the money line last week and we got our hearts

909
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:48,840
Speaker 1: broken on a hell Mary Sometimes, boys and girls, this

910
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:51,799
Speaker 1: is the hardest easy living you'll ever make, right here

911
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:55,520
Speaker 1: is betting on football, promise you. But anyway, Lattech minus

912
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 1: fevers UNC. We again like we like him. Last week

913
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 1: we had a plus the twelve versus SNU. They obviously

914
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 1: did cover we like can win didn't do that for us.

915
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 1: But this week is a twenty five point turnaround from

916
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 1: dog to favorite, and that's still not enough. UNT is

917
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 1: not even in the top one twenty. If you even

918
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:16,360
Speaker 1: knew there was one hundred and twenty teams ranked in

919
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 1: our power rankings, and law Tech still has a whole

920
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 1: a lot for a conference title. They will put that

921
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 1: bad loss behind them, and Chobby, so will we. And

922
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:26,319
Speaker 1: of course we have a soft spot for Lawtech because

923
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 1: they have the same mascot as the football Glory Hall.

924
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:32,319
Speaker 1: So go Bulldogs. All right, very nice, very nice, very nice.

925
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:36,320
Speaker 1: Finally the uh well, finally in college the pizza money

926
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 1: parlay ten dollars to win four forty four on a

927
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:42,720
Speaker 1: six team or gotta love it. Who are the teams?

928
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 1: The Moses Malone, Folk Folk fo Baby BC plus one

929
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 1: fifteen money line, Northwestern minus seven hundred money line, Arizona

930
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 1: State minus six fifty money line, Texas Tech plus two

931
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:57,399
Speaker 1: seventy five money line, two Lane minus one ninety money line,

932
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 1: ball State plus one eighty money line, and we do

933
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:03,759
Speaker 1: the money dance. Maybe this one is Yeah, that's big,

934
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 1: ten to four, forty four, forty four and a half

935
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 1: to one. I mean that's just really really good. All right?

936
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:10,880
Speaker 1: How about the NFL and he player props at the

937
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 1: regular games you want to give out? So this is Abscurman,

938
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 1: but it's our favorite one. Of the week. It's our

939
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 1: player prop and my buddy James at the Football Warriorhole.

940
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 1: He comes up with these each week and he's pretty

941
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:23,400
Speaker 1: darn good at him. His favorite one this week is

942
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:27,200
Speaker 1: Ian Thomas tied in for Carolina over six and a

943
00:47:27,280 --> 00:47:31,840
Speaker 1: half receiving yards. I catches, just receiving yards. Now. Houston

944
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 1: has been torched by tied end so far, giving up

945
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy seven yards on twenty total targets

946
00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:38,960
Speaker 1: in two games. Target or Thomas has four targets or

947
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:40,879
Speaker 1: two games, and he's got a career yards per catch

948
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 1: at eight point six. That means he only needs one

949
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:45,840
Speaker 1: catch on average to hit. And Darwin has been averaging

950
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 1: thirty six and a half attempts per game. That's a

951
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:50,879
Speaker 1: lot of chances to get one ball on his way.

952
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 1: So best bet Ian Thomas over six and a half

953
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 1: receiving yards. Gosh, I love that six and a half yards.

954
00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 1: I mean that's a gi me. It's one catch, one catch, baby,

955
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 1: you don't need ten for one ninety it's one catch.

956
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 1: I mean he could have a ball that's tipped that

957
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 1: goes right to his hands. Anything oh in on this one, okay?

958
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:18,800
Speaker 1: So Alburn minus twenty seven lot Tech minus twelve sixteen

959
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 1: pizza money parlay ten to win four to forty four

960
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:25,919
Speaker 1: BC Northwestern Arizona State, Texas Tech two lane ball State

961
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 1: all on the money line. And then our player prop

962
00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 1: of the National Football League, some tight end named Ian Thomas,

963
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:36,399
Speaker 1: who I'm told plays for Carolina over six point five

964
00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:39,799
Speaker 1: receiving yards for the game. Boh. Where can we find

965
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:43,320
Speaker 1: you online? And such? You guys find us at the

966
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:46,279
Speaker 1: Football Gloryhole dot com. You can find us on Twitter

967
00:48:46,520 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 1: at FGH Vegas. And you can find our podcast, the

968
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 1: Football Glory Hole Podcast anywhere, and I mean anywhere you

969
00:48:53,760 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 1: find podcast. I'm RJ Choppy. Catch me weekdays Monday through

970
00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 1: Friday one oh five to the fan with Shan Sharif

971
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:03,319
Speaker 1: and myself. It is the Sean and RJ Show five

972
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 1: thirty to ten am. Also on Saturday afternoons on the

973
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 1: Odyssey app on the bet QEL Radio network from eleven

974
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 1: to three bet QUL in the Action and then on

975
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:19,719
Speaker 1: Twitter at RJ Choppy for bo I'm RJ. It's been

976
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 1: episode what number four, Week three of the NFL season

977
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:25,879
Speaker 1: of the Football four oh one. K Let's win some money.

978
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next week,