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Speaker 1: one eight seventh han s t o P in Louisiana

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I'm Chad Mellman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: If you don't know, today is Wednesday, Kentucky Derby's on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: Today is one of the most critically important days in

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Speaker 1: the run up to the Kentucky Derby. Simon Hunter, my bff,

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Speaker 1: my companion, MIKEL. Padre. Do you know what is so

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Speaker 1: special about today? I don't, but I love talking ponies,

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Speaker 1: so I'm excited to hear just whatever you guys are

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Speaker 1: about to talk about with Kentucky Derby. I'm gonna ask

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Speaker 1: our guests Andy b and Cone Action Network Analyst tv

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Speaker 1: E G analyst. She knows more about horse racing then

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Speaker 1: you and I will know about anything in our entire lives. Andy,

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Speaker 1: how are you. I'm good. Let's not get crazy. No,

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Speaker 1: I'm just you know, out there shoveling poop at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day. That's my that's my main thing.

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Speaker 1: So we'll explain that to people, because, like you know,

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Speaker 1: there are gonna be people who know you from what

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Speaker 1: you do on tv G. There are certainly gonna be

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Speaker 1: people who follow the podcast and follow your stuff on action,

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Speaker 1: Like explain to people your background, what you actually do

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Speaker 1: day to day and how you got into it. My

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Speaker 1: dad is a third generation horse trainer from France, and

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Speaker 1: me being his child, you got roped in at a

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Speaker 1: young age. You know, I've been riding horses since I

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Speaker 1: was seven. I started working for him and galloping racehorses

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Speaker 1: and four years ago and I've been his assistant ever since.

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Speaker 1: Um I went to University of Florida, but that did

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Speaker 1: last very long because I got just you know, the

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Speaker 1: racetrack is just the racetrack is my home. And I

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Speaker 1: recently started working as a reporter for TVG and helping

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Speaker 1: them handicap and my job for them really is to

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Speaker 1: look at horses they want, kind of like a horseman's

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Speaker 1: eye brought to the handicapper side. So that's kind of

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Speaker 1: what I do for them. That's fascinated to me because

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Speaker 1: thinking about what a trainer's life is and thinking about

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Speaker 1: working at the track and being in the in the

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Speaker 1: paddocks and all that kind of stuff. It seems the

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Speaker 1: way they portray it in the movies and in books

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Speaker 1: to be incredibly romantic, like it's lovely and you're working

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Speaker 1: with animals and you've got a sixth cents for communicating

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Speaker 1: and your magical in the way that you can into it.

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Speaker 1: What other beings and other entities need? Walk me back?

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Speaker 1: Is it not romantic? You know? I'm not gonna lie.

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Speaker 1: I do have quite a few sea biscuit moments every

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Speaker 1: now and then, But I am a very romantic person.

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Speaker 1: Um So I do like to see, you know, those

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Speaker 1: moments like I don't know when I breathe diamond while

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Speaker 1: on the grass before she ran in the jest to

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Speaker 1: me and I literally almost started crying, and I was like,

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Speaker 1: this is this is a sea biscuit moment, you know

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Speaker 1: what I mean? But you know, the day to day

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Speaker 1: it's not an easy job. We get up, we're there

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Speaker 1: every day, Christmas, New Year's four o'clock in the morning,

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Speaker 1: cleaning stalls. You're everyone helps out, you know, like as

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Speaker 1: an assistant, I gotta help my grooms out as much

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Speaker 1: as I can. You know, we work as a team,

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Speaker 1: and you know, getting on horses who aren't always the

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Speaker 1: most cooperative. You know, they have each horse as an individual.

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Speaker 1: They have personalities, their their stars. You know, they're athletes

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Speaker 1: and they know that it's all about them, and you know,

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Speaker 1: sometimes they just want to drag you around the track

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Speaker 1: like a rag doll at four o'clock in the morning

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Speaker 1: when a thirty degree is at Keenland and you can't

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Speaker 1: feel your hands and they're burning a hole in your

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Speaker 1: legs and you know, but it's all that hard work

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Speaker 1: that makes the moments when they win so special and

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Speaker 1: that makes you ugly cry and just have those sea

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Speaker 1: biscuit moments. Listen, I know what it's like to have

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Speaker 1: to carry petulant talent that I just think they are everything.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at sign that on the zoom right now?

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Speaker 1: Are you trying? I was gonna say, I thought you

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Speaker 1: was gonna say, once you get over the smell, it's

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Speaker 1: a pretty good gig because I've been to a couple

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Speaker 1: of horse stables and you have to get adjusted. Once

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Speaker 1: you do, it's not bad. But that first waft when

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Speaker 1: they open up that barn door into the horse table,

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Speaker 1: oh my god, it really does hit you in the face. See,

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Speaker 1: I just feel like I don't even I don't even

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Speaker 1: notice that anymore. I'm like, I think I smell like

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Speaker 1: that all the time. Now, like that's just a part

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Speaker 1: of a personality trade at this point, is just horsepoop?

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Speaker 1: Just that's going to keep keeping guys away. They go

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Speaker 1: to the bar covering a horse boob. I mean, that's

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Speaker 1: a good way to tear the guy's away, isn't it? Perfect?

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Speaker 1: Be Andy? I opened the show by saying that today

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Speaker 1: is a very critically important day in the run up

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Speaker 1: to the Kentucky Derby. Uh. It's known around the land

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Speaker 1: as whisper Wednesday, sper Wednesday. Uh, And generally what that

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Speaker 1: means is that on Wednesday, sort of after the horses

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Speaker 1: have been in Louisville and running the track for a

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Speaker 1: few days, the handicappers and the trainers, they all start

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Speaker 1: to get a real sense of what who's got a

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Speaker 1: good shot, who's running well? Uh? They start lining up

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Speaker 1: sort of what the circumstances on the track might be

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Speaker 1: with the qualities and traits of the horses that are

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Speaker 1: gonna be running in the race. So, as whisper Wednesday ends,

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Speaker 1: what are you hearing about the horses that have performing well?

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Speaker 1: That have been performing well? Uh? As we head into

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Speaker 1: the race, I've heard nothing but good things about all

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Speaker 1: the contenders. I know, Crown Pride, the Japanese horse, had

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Speaker 1: an incredible work today, worked half in forty six, which

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Speaker 1: was I mean, looking at this horse's form, he just

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Speaker 1: doesn't seem like he's fast enough, if that makes sense,

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Speaker 1: Like his his times, he's just not as quick as

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Speaker 1: these other horses. But when he wanted Maydend, that track

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Speaker 1: was extremely slow, extremely sandy, and he was able to

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Speaker 1: power through that. In Japan has been not absolute fired

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Speaker 1: this year, So that's just something we have to consider. Right. Um,

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Speaker 1: of course looks incredible and seems to be taken to

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Speaker 1: the track. Well. Obviously we're gonna have sloppy conditions on

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Speaker 1: Derby Day, I think, so that is going to be

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Speaker 1: I mean as usual, right, but that's going to be

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Speaker 1: a huge factor in terms of numbering these horses down

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Speaker 1: to who's serious and who's not. Who else have you

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Speaker 1: heard about sort of as the week has been going on,

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Speaker 1: I mean, it seems like those Clutcher horses are all

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Speaker 1: doing well. I mean, I'm excited to see how charge

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Speaker 1: its developed because I remember when he debuted at Gulf

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Speaker 1: Stream and I saw him in the product. I said,

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Speaker 1: this is Todds Derby horse out of iron works, Emmanuel,

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Speaker 1: this is this one is the Derby horse. And then

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Speaker 1: of course he got beat by Volcanic, but he had

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Speaker 1: like a horrible trip, like Volcanic just kind of pressed

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Speaker 1: on him the whole way. He never got a chance.

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Speaker 1: Then he came back in I think what he came

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Speaker 1: back in one impressively by eight and a half. And

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Speaker 1: then when he ran into Florida Derby, I feel like,

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Speaker 1: I just feel like this horse tries so hard and

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Speaker 1: in the stretch people were saying he was green, but

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Speaker 1: I think he just got a bit tired. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's really difficult to break your maiden and take that

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Speaker 1: step in going to Florida Derby, and he still showed up.

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Speaker 1: So he's at one a very serious horse by tapp it,

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Speaker 1: you know he should have that should take to that

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Speaker 1: sloppy track really well. You know you mentioned form and

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Speaker 1: we talked a little bit about, you know, is it

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Speaker 1: going to be muddy on Saturday or what is the

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Speaker 1: weather going to be? For get about sort of the

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Speaker 1: training on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday at the Derby. What are

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Speaker 1: you looking for when you're trying to handicap horses in

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Speaker 1: the Derby in the lead up, in the months leading

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Speaker 1: up to the race. You know, just so many factors

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Speaker 1: go into it, right, I mean, this particular derby is

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Speaker 1: going to be very speedy. We have a really talented,

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Speaker 1: strong group of front running horses. There's so many of

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Speaker 1: them it could set up really well for a horse

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Speaker 1: to close. Um. Obviously, Epicenter has been a horse that has.

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Speaker 1: I mean it's crazy because I've never actually seen Epicenter

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Speaker 1: in really in real life, but every time I've watched

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Speaker 1: race replays of him, he just stands out like it's

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Speaker 1: like if all the horses were words on a page

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Speaker 1: at the center would be like bold that. He just

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Speaker 1: looked physically outstanding, even on you know, my phone, like

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Speaker 1: on TV. So I've always thought that was a very

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Speaker 1: serious horse. But and going into this race, there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a lot of speed going to the front. Zozo's

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Speaker 1: I know, it's probably just gonna try to attack him.

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Speaker 1: And you've got classic Causeway, you have a lot of speed.

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Speaker 1: So if Epicenter doesn't relax, like if he can't settle,

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Speaker 1: and it's especially more difficult or horses to settle on

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Speaker 1: a slabby track because there they're hearing the clacking the clacking,

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Speaker 1: and sometimes courses just get like freaked out by that

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Speaker 1: and they don't breathe. You know what you want these horses,

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Speaker 1: horses who are front runners, it's best if they can

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Speaker 1: get to the front, get a lead and just like

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Speaker 1: relax and chill up there. But if they have courses

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Speaker 1: constantly in contention with them up front, it's like they

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Speaker 1: run their race too early, if that makes sense. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, a lot of what I look for is

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Speaker 1: how these races can set up and what advantages some

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Speaker 1: of these horses will have over the others based on

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Speaker 1: their previous form, and also trends of improvement. I love

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Speaker 1: to look for trends of improvement a horse like Simplification,

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Speaker 1: for example. It's a really nice force. And I remember

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Speaker 1: he from when he ran in the Holy Bowl to

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Speaker 1: the Fountain of Youth, he physically developed so much like

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Speaker 1: that is such a good thing. I haven't seen him recently,

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Speaker 1: so I don't know how he's doing in person right now.

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Speaker 1: But that horse is just a little bit inconsistent in

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Speaker 1: his numbers for me. You see he in his numbers,

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Speaker 1: he'll run higher ones like he run after the Holy

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Speaker 1: Bowl and the and the Pound of Youth and then

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Speaker 1: in the Florida Derby. That's not really I don't like

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Speaker 1: to see that as much as I like to see

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Speaker 1: a horse like Sandon who is like consistently running a

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Speaker 1: higher number slowly every time he's running a little bit

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Speaker 1: points higher. I think that's something to look at. And

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Speaker 1: another horse he was like that is cyber Knife. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if he's you know, Arkansas has been extremely

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Speaker 1: weak this year. Like horses who've been running at Oakland,

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Speaker 1: they come to Keenland and they've just not been running

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Speaker 1: like Turfoy form has been stronger, particularly like keen Land

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Speaker 1: than Oaklawn form. So I just kind of it goes

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Speaker 1: show that Oakland has been very weak this year. Um,

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Speaker 1: but you know, nevertheless, that horse has been consistently improving.

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Speaker 1: So that's very interesting to see you going into this race.

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Speaker 1: So there's two things I want to follow up because

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Speaker 1: I know Simon wants to ask a question, but, uh,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned a couple of numbers there that one of

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Speaker 1: the horses, like, explain to people what that means, because

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Speaker 1: a lot of people who are listening to this won't

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Speaker 1: really understand sort of how you look at numbers and

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Speaker 1: what some of those numbers mean when you're judging a horse. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so there's I mean, numbers don't mean everything, but they're

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Speaker 1: definitely a good basis. Basically, after a horse runs, they

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Speaker 1: get a rating on their performance based on the conditions,

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Speaker 1: the type of trip they had, you know, the how

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Speaker 1: they performed, and they get a grade, like a number

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Speaker 1: grade based on the performance. For buyers, which are on

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Speaker 1: the racing form, the higher number better. But then there

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Speaker 1: are some other things, is like um ragazine sheets thereographed

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Speaker 1: like those who look for lower numbers, but the racing

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Speaker 1: form uses buyers. So that's kind of what we go

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Speaker 1: off here. And you know, higher buyers are better, and

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Speaker 1: it's kind of it's interesting to see a trend. Like

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Speaker 1: trends and buyers are very interesting. You want to see,

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Speaker 1: like I said, improvement is great. Um. Sometimes if they

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Speaker 1: run similar numbers in a row, they'll like run the

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Speaker 1: next best number, and then sometimes they'll bounce, like if

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Speaker 1: a horse has just been running like consistently high buyers

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Speaker 1: like sometimes they'll just bounce like if like they will

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Speaker 1: regress suddenly because they've had so many good races in

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Speaker 1: a row. Type of deal. The biggest horse race of

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Speaker 1: the year is quickly approaching and you can bet that

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Speaker 1: there will be risk free up to two hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: you'll get up to two hundred dollars back if your

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Speaker 1: the tools you need to bet the derby. You'll get

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Speaker 1: access to free picks, analysis and wagering advice from industry experts. Personally,

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Speaker 1: I'll be betting Epicenter to win. The Derby is coming

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Speaker 1: up this Saturday, so don't miss out. Just sign up

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Speaker 1: com for offer terms. Gambling problem called one eight hundred

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Speaker 1: five to two for seven zero zero. The second question

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Speaker 1: I want to ask you is thinking about sort of

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Speaker 1: post positions. Do you look at certain post positions as

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Speaker 1: being the most advantageous, specifically when it comes to the

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Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby, Absolutely, um, I would hate to be on

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Speaker 1: the far outside. I feel a bit it's a bit

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Speaker 1: unfortunate for horses like white a Barrio, cyber Knife, Classic Causeway,

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Speaker 1: all those. It's much more difficult because you think about it.

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Speaker 1: To get over to the rail that's already you have

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Speaker 1: to exert yourself a lot. But then again, being on

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Speaker 1: the inside isn't particularly advantageous either, because you have the

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Speaker 1: pressure of a nineteen horse field. For example, being that

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Speaker 1: one hole, that horse is going to feel crowded, like

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Speaker 1: imagine sitting on the window seat of a plane but

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Speaker 1: having like nineteen people next to you. You know, it's

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Speaker 1: a little bit claustrophobic. I was a little bit disappointed

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Speaker 1: to see Modonacle drawing the one hole. I was like, dang,

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Speaker 1: that's such. That's disappointing. However, Modonacle has drawn one multiple times.

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Speaker 1: He's drawn one in the in the Wood Memorial, he

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Speaker 1: drew run in the Remsen, and he's won both of those.

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Speaker 1: So if any horse can handle that one whole, it's

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Speaker 1: probably him. But that is also, you know, a tough

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Speaker 1: spot to be in, best place to be in a

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Speaker 1: big field like this, I mean probably you know charge

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Speaker 1: it is in a great position, stand in excellent position.

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Speaker 1: Even with twelve, Taiba has in a good position. Um

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Speaker 1: at the center of being a speed horse. I think

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Speaker 1: three whole could be advantageous for him because he doesn't

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Speaker 1: instead of needing to break and make a big move,

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Speaker 1: he can just kind of break and send and kind

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Speaker 1: of just get where he needs to be. Um, yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's great. Yeah, Chad knows. I love drama. I love drama,

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Speaker 1: not my personal but in sports, I absolutely love it.

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Speaker 1: And when we talk horse racing, I just keep thinking

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Speaker 1: about Bob Bob Baffort where I know that I'm assuming

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Speaker 1: the horse racing will open, welcome on back with open arms.

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Speaker 1: He's definitely tarnished. Like I'm again, I'm a follower of

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Speaker 1: racing where I followed the big events. When I thought

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Speaker 1: to him, I thought of like, he's he's the top.

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Speaker 1: He was like the Michael Jordan felt like a racing

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Speaker 1: Now how is he viewed in the racing world, especially

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Speaker 1: is he is it? A lot of people still talking

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Speaker 1: about it. I mean a year later, people still bring

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Speaker 1: it up now at racing events. Absolutely, it's a very

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Speaker 1: big deal. You know, a lot of we uphold this

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Speaker 1: sport with a lot of integrity, and it's important for

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Speaker 1: each of us to do our part as trainers, as

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Speaker 1: assistants to uphold that integrity. And I don't know, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, if his actions were just more repercussion of negligence,

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Speaker 1: you know, like I feel like maybe just wasn't cautious

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Speaker 1: because there's rules, Okay, there's medication rules in racing. Um,

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Speaker 1: what he got caught for banda methods. And that's a

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Speaker 1: perfectly legal substance that you know, we use when we

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Speaker 1: inject joints, which is like getting an oil change. The

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Speaker 1: courses need an oil changing their joints, even like hunter

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Speaker 1: jumpers and stuff like that. Horse sport horses, Um, they

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Speaker 1: need that extra little help sometimes to help them, you know,

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Speaker 1: form better more comfortably, to just help them. Um. And

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Speaker 1: it's perfectly legal, but not fourteen days and within a

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Speaker 1: fourteen day period of running, um, because within that fourteen

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Speaker 1: days that could be like performance enhancing as opposed to

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Speaker 1: just helping them aiding them in training, you know what

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Speaker 1: I mean. So he kind of obviously went within those

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Speaker 1: parameters in some way, whether he knew it or not,

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Speaker 1: and that's like a you know, he definitely needs to

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Speaker 1: be held accountable for that. You know, you have to

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Speaker 1: do your job as a trainer to pay attention. So

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Speaker 1: if you're negligent in the score, like you unfortunately, because

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Speaker 1: you're the representative of that horse, of that barn, and

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Speaker 1: you have to be held accountable. So you've got posts

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Speaker 1: on Action Network in the app Action network dot com

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Speaker 1: run down as we're sitting here Wednesday night, who your

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Speaker 1: predictions are for the top three spots in the Kentucky Derby?

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Speaker 1: If we are betting the Derby, who are taking? So right?

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Speaker 1: I wish I could do a top four? Do a

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Speaker 1: top four? Okay, all right, I'm gonna go um Zandon

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Speaker 1: charge it at the Center in Taiba, And how would

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Speaker 1: you place them? I mean, I've been so high on

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Speaker 1: Epicenter this whole time, but I just feel like it's

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Speaker 1: too good to be true and that he's going to bounce.

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Speaker 1: I feel like he's just a very consistent horse. You

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Speaker 1: can't knock. I mean, any of these horses, you can't

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Speaker 1: knock their consistency. I could see Charge It taking a

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Speaker 1: piece of it. I could see Zandon winning the thing, honestly,

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Speaker 1: because he's a deep closer. There's gonna be a ton

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Speaker 1: of speed during the Keenland Meat. I actually did post

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Speaker 1: race interviews on a pony for TVG and when I

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Speaker 1: interviewed Flabby and Pratt after winning after Zandon won the Bluegrass,

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Speaker 1: Zanden tried to mount my pony like he was and

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Speaker 1: you'd think after winning the blue Grass, you know, he

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Speaker 1: should be tired. Like horses after they run, they're they're

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Speaker 1: like Zandon was like, oh hey, hute, Oh hey. I

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Speaker 1: was like, oh yeah, So that's a really good sign

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Speaker 1: because that shows that that race didn't take anything out

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Speaker 1: of him, and he beat a very salty group. He

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Speaker 1: galloped out incredible. It's like, I mean, Flatvian could barely

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Speaker 1: pull him up. He wanted to go another lap, And

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Speaker 1: I think that is an extremely good sign. Zandon is

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Speaker 1: three to one right now, Epicenter seven to two. Uh,

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Speaker 1: those are the two favorites as far as I can

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Speaker 1: see as we stand Wednesday before the race. Obviously, because

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Speaker 1: of the way horse betting works, or betting on your

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Speaker 1: paramiccal betting works, like these odds all changed dramatically and

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Speaker 1: whoever you know cyber knife right now is one by Saturday.

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Speaker 1: If more people start jumping on that particular horse, it

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Speaker 1: could be going off five to one, four to one.

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Speaker 1: So just because you get the good odds now doesn't

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Speaker 1: mean it's gonna stay that way. But I'm going to

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Speaker 1: pressure you here one horse, who's gonna win the Kentucky Derby?

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Speaker 1: You gave me four. I felt like that was a

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Speaker 1: nice way to transition into asking the harder question, which

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Speaker 1: is give me the one. Pressure, no pressure, a lot

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Speaker 1: of pressure. There's a lot of people that listen to

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Speaker 1: this podcast, and if you get it wrong, they're all

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Speaker 1: going to remember, like, gun to my head right now? Right, Yes,

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Speaker 1: I'll go with Zanden. Gun to my head, gun into

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Speaker 1: your head? Zanden currently three to one. Uh, go around

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Speaker 1: the favorite? Yeah, doesn't the matter? Like the best the

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Speaker 1: best pick is the best pick? Now, I know what

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Speaker 1: I'm going to bet. I love horizontal wagering, so I

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Speaker 1: love exact Does I love picking horses underneath? You know? Um,

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Speaker 1: I think there's Zanden in the top spot and using

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Speaker 1: another horse underneath. Even kiss the Bomb is going to

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Speaker 1: be an interesting horse. I know, like on form, he's

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Speaker 1: just really looks like a grass and to Pete Polly

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Speaker 1: try kind of horse. But fun fact, I think like

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Speaker 1: seventy of Kentucky Derby winners or something have turf pedigree.

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Speaker 1: And if a turf horse is going to take to

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Speaker 1: any dirt surface, it's the Churchill Downs dirt surface, especially sloppy,

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Speaker 1: especially I mean on Derby day they make it wicked

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Speaker 1: fast anyways, But in slop it doesn't really matter, and

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Speaker 1: he's won in the slop. He broke his maiden in

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Speaker 1: the slop by four and a half length, so I

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Speaker 1: like that nine post position. He's a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a I don't know if I mean mentally. I saw

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Speaker 1: him when he won the Bourbon and he like broke

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Speaker 1: through the gates prematurely and he was a big handful.

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Speaker 1: So he's gonna have to mature a lot mentally to

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Speaker 1: handle the Derby, because the Derby is a lot for

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Speaker 1: these horses. You know, none of these horses have ever

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Speaker 1: run in front of a crowd of two thousand people,

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Speaker 1: and they feel that pressure and the slop and it's

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Speaker 1: a lot to ask, really, and only a true champion

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Speaker 1: can handle everything throwing out them on that day the trip.

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Speaker 1: It's it's a very serious race and it's I'm feeling

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Speaker 1: like the sea biscuit moment thought. It's just thinking about it.

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Speaker 1: I'm so excited. Well, that's a great way listen the

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Speaker 1: way you framed it. You can feel that even when

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Speaker 1: you're watching, you know, from Connecticut or Philadelphia sixty seven

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Speaker 1: pm Eastern post time. It is truly dramatic. There's so

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Speaker 1: much pageantry, it's so much fun. Andy be and Cone,

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Speaker 1: you can find her stuff on Action Network. You can

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Speaker 1: find her on tv G as an analyst. You can

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Speaker 1: find her in the paddocks at four am every single day.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for coming on the favorite podcast for Matt Mitchell,

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Speaker 1: for Simon Hunter. I am Chad Millman. This has been

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Speaker 1: the favorites from the Volume podcast Network. Download us from

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00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 1: Apple podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. Rate reviews, subscribed,

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Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.

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Speaker 1: Until next time. I've you