1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa A. Brahmowitz. Each day 3 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews 4 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery 5 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m 6 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot Com. 7 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 1: Chairs of Tesla right now down nearly five after another 8 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: tweet storm from Elon Musk targeting the Securities and Exchange Commission. 9 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 1: Eric Gordon is a professor at the Raw School of 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 1: Business at the University of Michigan in an arbor, and 11 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: he joins us. Now, Eric Gordon, why would Elon Musk 12 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: do this? I think because he can't not do it. 13 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: You know, the first two times Elon did this crazy 14 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 1: twee eating stuff, I'm scratching my head and saying, how 15 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 1: could the CEO of a public company be doing this? 16 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: But now if a day goes by, you know, I'm 17 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 1: surprised that he doesn't. Um. I mean, actually, Dana Hall 18 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:15,320 Speaker 1: put out something great on the Bloomberg this morning. Here's 19 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: here's her opening line. Another day, another tweet storm from 20 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: Elon musk Um. I think he cannot control himself. I 21 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: think he doesn't want to control himself. He just uh, 22 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:29,120 Speaker 1: you know, he's right, the SEC, everybody else is wrong, 23 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 1: and and he's gonna lash out at them, all right. So, 24 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 1: s Professor Gordon, what is the board's role in raining 25 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 1: him in? Because it's clear that he doesn't want to 26 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 1: rain himself in, but the SEC is going to penalize 27 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: him and the company if he does not. Yeah, and 28 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:47,319 Speaker 1: so it's that ladder part. They're going to penalize the 29 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: company if he if this guy doesn't shape up, and 30 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: that's where the board comes in. The board is not 31 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: supposed to look out for Elon except to the extent 32 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 1: that that helps the company. They're supposed to look out 33 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 1: for the company as a whole, no matter what Elon says. 34 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: So when Elon says, you know, support me or I'm 35 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,800 Speaker 1: going to quit or you know whatever he pulls, I 36 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: think the board. The board is the problem here. We know, 37 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: we know what the problem is with Elon. The question 38 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 1: is what's wrong with this board. Why isn't the board 39 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 1: taking action to support the company and at some point 40 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 1: to just protect the company. Professor Gordon, if someone that 41 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: you were representing in the world of business publicly described 42 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: the Securities and Exchange Commission as the short seller enrichment Commission. 43 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 1: What would you do? You know? Um, so I'm also 44 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 1: a law professor in an attorney, and I would advise 45 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: them to cut it out. Um, for a couple of reasons. One, 46 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,679 Speaker 1: it's it's just ridiculous. Um, that's that's not what they do. 47 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: In fact, they gave him a very easy settlement. If 48 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: I were going to criticize the sec before offering such 49 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:03,239 Speaker 1: an settlement, but just as a practical matter, I mean, 50 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: come on, when you're on the playground, do you taunt 51 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 1: the guy the big kid with the big stick. No, 52 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:12,799 Speaker 1: you don't do that. Well, professor, I'd love to get 53 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 1: your opinion. You were saying, why isn't the board saying 54 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: cut it out? Why aren't they reading it? In more, 55 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: it's their fault, that said. If they were to push 56 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:24,359 Speaker 1: Elon Musk out, or if something that they did caused 57 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:28,360 Speaker 1: him to depart the company, what would be left of Tesla? 58 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: You know, it might be a better company. So we've 59 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 1: said all along. I haven't said, but a lot of 60 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 1: people have said. Certainly, his fan club has said the 61 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: company is nothing without Ellen. If that's true, everybody who's invested, 62 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 1: everybody who's an employee, is in real trouble because he 63 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: could have a heart attack, He could be driving in 64 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 1: a Tesla and be using the driver assistant, hit a 65 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 1: truck and die. I mean, the company cannot be Elon if. 66 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: If that's the case, the board is at fault for 67 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: not sending up a succession plan, for not insisting that 68 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: there'll be a strong CEO, for not insisting that a 69 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 1: large public company have a team. Just you know, just 70 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: the admission that it's nothing without Elon to me is saying, well, 71 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: come on board. Why would you leave everybody at such 72 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 1: big risk but to play devil's advocate there, Eric Gordon, 73 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 1: if you're an investor in Tesla, you already know all this, right. 74 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,039 Speaker 1: I mean, you don't have to own I mean you 75 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: don't have to own shares of Tesla. You can buy 76 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: a lot of other things if you don't believe either 77 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 1: the corporate governance is accountable or indeed whether the CEO 78 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 1: is going off the rails with his tweet storm. Yeah, 79 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,040 Speaker 1: and I think that's a good point, and that's why 80 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: their investors left the stock has gone down, but it 81 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:54,799 Speaker 1: hasn't gone to zero. It's still a very highly valued stock, 82 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: a highly valued company. And I think what's happened is 83 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 1: we've seen investors who have changed their mind said let's 84 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 1: get out, it's too scary. Leave. But there are obviously 85 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: a lot of investors who are left who are willing 86 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 1: to hold stock even now it is very, very high valuation, 87 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: and who would say, look, we are willing to take 88 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:19,159 Speaker 1: that risk. And you know, that's how the system works. 89 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: You know. If some people don't want to take the risk, 90 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:24,479 Speaker 1: they don't. If other people want to take the risk, 91 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 1: let them take the risk. Thank you so much for 92 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 1: being with us. Eric Gordon, Michigan University professor for the 93 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 1: Ross School of Business talking about Elon Musk and his 94 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 1: inability to control himself with respect to his tweet storms. 95 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: So let's take a look at what is going on 96 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: right now and ms A bond market. Earlier this week 97 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 1: black Rocks Immuni bond et F which has about ten 98 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 1: billion dollars of assets, so it's biggest one day withdrawal 99 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,039 Speaker 1: in its history. And meanwhile, you've got the shares of 100 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 1: that doubt at the lowest levels of the year. Joe 101 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: meisac Come on, and here you're the person who always 102 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 1: is following every movement in the municipal bond market, covering 103 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 1: our Bloomberg brief focused on that market for us. Here, 104 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:19,840 Speaker 1: what's your perspective? This is all just rates concerns run 105 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:26,159 Speaker 1: all right, everyone, kind of uh, a little bit of 106 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,720 Speaker 1: panic in the air maybe. So this week we had 107 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 1: yields on a ten year go up to a little 108 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 1: over to seventy, which is a place we haven't seen 109 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 1: on the tenure municipal bonds. What you're saying on tenure 110 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 1: municipal bonds tax exempt, tax free, uh so to seventies 111 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 1: level we have not seen in quite some time. For 112 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: most of this year, as our listeners know, the ten 113 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: year has been hovering in the two and a half 114 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 1: percent range, seemingly range bound, which is very unusual in 115 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:08,160 Speaker 1: the muni market. It's plateau like that from February through September. 116 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: Very unusual. And you go back years and years, rates 117 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 1: are always ratcheting around in the muni market reflecting supply 118 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 1: and demand. This year was very unusual. I'm not sure 119 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: you're going to see that sort of plateau ing again. 120 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: And you know right now, to seventy not bad. Headed higher, 121 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 1: one would think, alright, headed higher. If that's the case, 122 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 1: do you wait until rates are higher or do you 123 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 1: when do you start to see money come in? Uh? 124 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: I don't think the wise investor ever waits in the 125 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 1: meunia market, because you should. If you have a certain 126 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: amount of money that you're going to put to work 127 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: in the muni market, put it to work. Don't wait 128 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 1: people who who wait? Um, I mean there were people 129 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 1: who waited, you know, let's say, uh, seven or eight 130 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: years ago and they've missed, you know, seven or eight 131 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 1: years of tax free income basically. So I don't think 132 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 1: it's ever a good idea to wait. You might want to, uh, 133 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 1: you know, maybe you shorten up a little bit, but no, now, 134 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: waiting not good. But you know what, what kind of 135 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 1: rates what we see to attract much more interest? Yeah? 136 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 1: I think if you see the tenure go over three 137 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 1: uh well thirty basis points from now, I think you'll 138 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 1: see some strong interest then, Joe, I want to talk 139 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 1: about the technical factors because we were speaking with the 140 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 1: portfolio manager from McKai Shields yesterday who focuses on them 141 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 1: to put bond market, and he was saying, heading into 142 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 1: your end, you're going to see a lot of selling 143 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 1: pressure that liquidity could easily dry up as demand falls 144 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 1: for municipal bonds. What's your impression of that and how 145 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: does that factor into how high yields could go? Oh baby, 146 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:55,880 Speaker 1: The technical factor UH to really keep an eye on 147 00:08:56,840 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 1: is supply overwhelming demand. So demand right now, we've seen 148 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 1: a lot of bidd lists out for a couple of 149 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 1: weeks now, and supply typically picks up in the municipal 150 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 1: market the last quarter of the year, So you're gonna 151 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: see a lot of bonds coming to market and they're 152 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: gonna have to pay up. It's just the it's the 153 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:20,560 Speaker 1: nature of the beast. And then you know, back in 154 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 1: January and February, late December, you see a lot more 155 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 1: money coming back in money that's going to be looking 156 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: for a new home, which is you know, was our 157 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 1: theme for so much of this year. Joe, I'm wondering 158 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 1: if you could just speak a little bit about a 159 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 1: story that you wrote entitled Masked Man Preps for Showtime. 160 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 1: That was an interesting piece, isn't That's something I just 161 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 1: set the scene for people so they understand what you're 162 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: talking about. Back in April, in Illinois, there was a 163 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: lawsuit filed by a whistleblower unnamed UH who described the 164 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 1: pricing of variable right to and Obligation bonds. Said that 165 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 1: the remarketing agents, which are basically Wall Street banks UM, 166 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: who set the rates on these bonds, we're not really 167 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 1: doing their jobs. They were setting the rates too high 168 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: so they wouldn't have to remarket the bonds, and this 169 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 1: resulted in damages to the issuers of these bonds. So 170 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:29,080 Speaker 1: in Massachusetts, in August UM, the Supreme Court in Massachusetts 171 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 1: rule that whistle blowers, if their file lawsuits, have to 172 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:38,560 Speaker 1: be named if the individuals not entities. So the entity 173 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 1: which is called Atli's Fund in Illinois UM has to 174 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:50,440 Speaker 1: refile its case naming the whistle blower. And they recently 175 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 1: got an extension and that's where it is now. But 176 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,840 Speaker 1: very curious, so many people want to know who is 177 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 1: this masked man for woman? Do you have any idea? 178 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:07,959 Speaker 1: I do? Would you like to? Alright, just fascinating case. 179 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 1: Now the RDO market variable rate demand obligations, that's a 180 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty billion dollar market and this is a 181 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 1: sort of I haven't seen one of these attacks on 182 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: the industry. Uh, and certainly you know more than a decade. 183 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: I mean, you did have a big rigging um and 184 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 1: you know, swaps investigation after financial crisis around that time. 185 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: But you really have to go back to the yield 186 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 1: burning business of the mid ninety nineties yesterday for you. Well, yeah, 187 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 1: joe My Sak, thank you very much. Joe My Sac 188 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg editor for the Bloomberg brief on municipal markets. Thank 189 00:11:51,840 --> 00:12:05,679 Speaker 1: you very much for being with us cyber security and 190 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:11,679 Speaker 1: hacks China using a tiny chip to hack into US companies, 191 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,559 Speaker 1: though many of those US companies, such as Apple and Amazon, 192 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 1: have denied the contents of Bloomberg Business Week cover story. 193 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 1: Here to tell us about this topic is Malcolm Harkins. 194 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 1: He is the chief security and trust officer at a 195 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 1: Side Clans and he joins us. Now, Um, Malcolm, maybe 196 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 1: you could just tell us what does the chief security 197 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 1: and trust officer at CYD Clans do and then comment 198 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:42,680 Speaker 1: on this Bloomberg Business Week cover story. Please. Yeah, not 199 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 1: a problem, and it's actually silent. I beg your pardon. Yeah, 200 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 1: no worries. So, as chief security and trust officer at Silence, 201 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 1: I'm responsible for our internal security controls and compliance efforts, 202 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:58,719 Speaker 1: and really trying to make sure our infrastructure and uh 203 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: base of capability for how we operate our company is 204 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 1: adequately secured and protected against a variety of risks. Okay, So, 205 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 1: given the fact that you also served in a similar 206 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 1: role at Intel, can you put us into give us 207 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 1: some insight into just how big of a risk it 208 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:19,680 Speaker 1: is if this is true that China is indeed possibly 209 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 1: even implanting tiny microscopic chips in the hardware that they 210 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 1: could use to have a backdoor entrance to a number 211 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,199 Speaker 1: of different servers. Well, for me, and given my prior 212 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 1: role at Intel and being in the compute ecosystem for 213 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 1: decades now, supply chain compromises has been a long time concern, 214 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 1: not only for myself but many in the industry. And 215 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 1: so there are nation states that have the capacity the 216 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:50,439 Speaker 1: capability to actually do these type of things and implant chips, 217 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:56,680 Speaker 1: or change software programs, or do other forms of manipulation 218 00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 1: that would affect the foundation of computing, such as what 219 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 1: was reported by Bloomberg the other day. Malcolm, there's a 220 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: report that there are going to be new cybersecurity rules 221 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:13,679 Speaker 1: put in place in China beginning November first, police officers 222 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 1: in China will have the authority to physically inspect businesses 223 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 1: and remotely access corporate networks. Do you believe that that's 224 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: consistent with the reporting about a chip that may have 225 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 1: been implanted by the People's Liberation Army companies in the 226 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: service that Lisa was referring to. Well, it could be 227 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 1: the case that they created that chip in order to 228 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: have that slow into Chinese organizations for that purpose. But 229 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 1: the other aspect of it is one of lawful entry. 230 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:53,880 Speaker 1: And if they've passed a law that said the Chinese can, 231 00:14:54,880 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 1: under certain circumstances access a company's network access their devices, 232 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 1: they don't necessarily need to have a chip to do that. 233 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 1: They could do that by just showing up to the 234 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: front door and making that in essence lawful entry and 235 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 1: then demanding access to those systems. It's like, I guess 236 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 1: I'm trying to understand, Malcolm, whether we're sort of overblowing 237 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 1: the potential risk here of some of these international uh 238 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 1: cyber scrutinies or cyber hacking. I guess I'm trying to 239 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:26,840 Speaker 1: figure out, especially given the fact that these chips that 240 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 1: we were just talking about have been put into the hardware, 241 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: and you know in servers that were in the Pentagon 242 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 1: for example, as well as the big tech giants in 243 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: the United States. What's the worst case scenario here? And 244 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 1: do you think that people are getting a little more 245 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 1: concerned that they need to be well? I think the 246 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 1: concern is real. And at that foundation of computing, it 247 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 1: would be like having rebar in the cement that that 248 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 1: isn't appropriate, or having the wrong cement mix. And at 249 00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 1: that foundation level, if you have this type of compromise, 250 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: in that type of vulnerability, everything above it in the 251 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 1: compute stack, and therefore the business processes, the communications, the 252 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 1: sensitive secrets is now at risk. You know, Microsoft has 253 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: what they call a transparency center in Beijing where officials 254 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 1: can test products for security. Apple is building a data 255 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 1: center in the Southwestern province of China to comply with 256 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 1: rules that require cloud data from Chinese customers be stored 257 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: in China. If one of those companies or a company 258 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 1: that was thinking of doing business in this way in 259 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 1: China came to you, what kind of recommendations are guidelines 260 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 1: would you offer them well first and foremost in those situations, 261 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 1: and for a lot of multinational companies, it's a it's 262 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 1: a business decision and a business choice. If you want 263 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 1: to grow and you want to enter the Chinese market, 264 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 1: you have to comply by local laws in if those 265 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:05,680 Speaker 1: local laws then require certain testing or other things, then 266 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 1: that's a business decision. Do you want the revenue and 267 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 1: you want to be in that market relative to the 268 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 1: compliance requirements. And then you also have to think about 269 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 1: then the implication of those local laws in terms of 270 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:22,159 Speaker 1: the risk to the rest of the business or the 271 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 1: risk to your customers, and and so it really becomes 272 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 1: a calculus decision in terms of the revenue and the 273 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:34,359 Speaker 1: potential risk, and then how you navigate those choices. Malcolm Harkins, 274 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us a really important 275 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 1: topic and important perspective. Malcolm Harkins is chief Security and 276 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 1: Trust Officer at Silence. He was the former he probably 277 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 1: was in a similar role at Intel. Talking about what 278 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: we've been seeing and what Bloomberg reported yesterday with respect 279 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 1: to China implanting microchips in some of the hards are 280 00:17:54,040 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 1: used by many companies. We've talked so much in the 281 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:10,400 Speaker 1: past a few weeks about leveraged loans and how they 282 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 1: are looking riskier than they have in the past, given 283 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 1: the amount of money that's flowed in. Joining us now 284 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 1: to talk about that is Beth McLean. She has portfolio 285 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 1: manager at PIMCO and she is absolutely one of the 286 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:23,879 Speaker 1: most important people in the loan market. I would say so, 287 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,120 Speaker 1: but thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciated. 288 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 1: So let's just start with all of the news articles 289 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,880 Speaker 1: and headlines that have basically come out talking about how 290 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 1: the UH leverage loan issuance is going gangbusters, and how 291 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 1: deal terms are getting loosened up, and how risk is 292 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 1: building and how setting up for a fall when the 293 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:47,200 Speaker 1: market turns. What's your perspective on that, well, I think, um, first, 294 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 1: thanks Lisa, thanks for having me today. Um And and 295 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: there definitely has been a lot of press about some 296 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 1: of the negative developments in the loan market. But but 297 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:57,400 Speaker 1: I do think we need to keep it in perspective 298 00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,680 Speaker 1: a little bit. Um. You know, first, I'd say that 299 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:03,280 Speaker 1: across all of leverage finance have have gotten a little 300 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: bit looser, so it's not exclusive to loans. But then 301 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 1: we have to keep in mind that loans still are 302 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,120 Speaker 1: senior secured top of the capital structure. So while we've 303 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 1: we've seen some erosion in some of the protections as 304 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,119 Speaker 1: far as UM you know, tests on indebtedness and and 305 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:22,159 Speaker 1: looser restricted payment baskets, etcetera. I think what that just 306 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:24,479 Speaker 1: signals to us is that it's very important for us 307 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 1: to do our diligence to really you know, focus on 308 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 1: that bottom up credit work factor in what different scenarios 309 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 1: might develop given these areas of flexibility and the documents, 310 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 1: um and and then make the choices on which credits 311 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 1: we are comfortable can survive, uh, you know, even in 312 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: a weaker economic environment with that type of flexibility. But 313 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:46,960 Speaker 1: but I think it's it's very important not to lose 314 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:48,919 Speaker 1: sight of the fact that you know, loans still our 315 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 1: senior secured top of the cap structure um and And 316 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 1: then secondly, and I think this is a point that 317 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,919 Speaker 1: that people have overlooked, is you know, we're not seeing 318 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 1: levels of leverage that we saw precry in late oh 319 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,159 Speaker 1: six early oh seven, the big l e O s 320 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 1: had you know, over of debt and leverages high as 321 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:10,639 Speaker 1: ten to twelve times UM. So far this year, the 322 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: biggest deal we've seen was a fourteen billion dollar deal 323 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:15,679 Speaker 1: that came a couple of weeks ago. But We're leverage 324 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 1: was still only around seven times, So I think when 325 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 1: we look at the risk in the market, you have 326 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,399 Speaker 1: to kind of look at that holistically. Where are we 327 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 1: versus leverage. The terms might be might be looser, but 328 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,199 Speaker 1: the leverage is lower. And then again it's critical for 329 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,439 Speaker 1: us as active managers to do the work and do 330 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 1: the diligence and make sure we're picking the right credits. Beth, 331 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 1: I wondering if you could just comment on something that 332 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 1: I've noticed. And I don't know whether this is a 333 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 1: trend or whether this has always been there, but I've 334 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 1: just been paying closer attention, but the emphasis on advertisements 335 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 1: for individuals who have mortgages to pay off those mortgages 336 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 1: using home equity lines of credit, and that the reason 337 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,920 Speaker 1: I bring that up is because one obviously the lines 338 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: of credit tip we our adjustable rate, whereas mortgages tend 339 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:06,440 Speaker 1: to be fixed rate. What do you see there? So 340 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,159 Speaker 1: the mortgage market is not my area of expertise, but 341 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 1: I'll tell you, I think that's just another symptom of 342 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 1: you know, potentially re leveraging in the system. Right, So 343 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 1: if if we are in fact seeing a trend of 344 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 1: increasing home equity line usage. Um, I don't think that's 345 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,880 Speaker 1: necessarily I wouldn't think about the recent terms of floating 346 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 1: versus fixed rate debt in that space. But more is 347 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,639 Speaker 1: that just an overall releveraging um that you know, that 348 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 1: that we're seeing across you know, corporate credit, mortgage, other spaces, 349 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 1: and that's certainly something to watch. You know. One thing 350 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 1: that that some people talk about the loan market is that, 351 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: as you said, it is senior secure debt in general, 352 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:47,359 Speaker 1: but second lean sales, which is basically more subordinate debt, 353 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,440 Speaker 1: have increased more and there are a lot of companies 354 00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:53,199 Speaker 1: that are turning to the loan market instead of the 355 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 1: bond market. In other words, there is no other debt 356 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 1: below it that with they would default on before defaulting 357 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,200 Speaker 1: on their loads. I mean, how does that play into year, 358 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 1: into into your currncern or view of the market right now? Sure? 359 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,160 Speaker 1: I think I think at least actually you highlight probably 360 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,159 Speaker 1: what we see as the biggest risk in the market, 361 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 1: which is there has been um a shift from loans 362 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:17,160 Speaker 1: with bonds beneath them in the capital structure too, maybe 363 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,720 Speaker 1: loans with just the second lean or even loan only 364 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:24,919 Speaker 1: capital structures. So because capital structure. Subordination is probably the 365 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 1: most critical component of what your recovery will be when alone, 366 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 1: if alone has to restructure that is, that is certainly 367 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 1: very important. So, whether it's a second lean or a 368 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 1: high yield bond, if you lack that subordination, um, you know, 369 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 1: that's where you could that's where you could get into 370 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,800 Speaker 1: trouble in in some of these instances. So how much 371 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: lower do you think recoveries are going to be on 372 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 1: loans in the next downturn, just going forward versus the past? Sure? Well, 373 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 1: In fact, moody is put out a piece a little 374 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 1: while ago where they um, you know, they highlighted the 375 00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 1: risk of loan recoveries flipping to you know, in the 376 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,440 Speaker 1: sixty cents on the dollar range versus you know, high seventies, 377 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 1: low eighties, which we've experienced before. I think it's hard 378 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,159 Speaker 1: to put one number on it though, because again the 379 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 1: market is somewhat bifurcated. You may see lower bond like 380 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 1: recoveries on some of these weaker loan only capital structures, 381 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,119 Speaker 1: and at the same time you can still see very strong, 382 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 1: you know, eight cent and above recoveries on companies you know, 383 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 1: the larger liquid companies with a more robust capital structure, 384 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,439 Speaker 1: so I can kind of see where they get to 385 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 1: that average of sixty area. UM. But it's going to 386 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:35,640 Speaker 1: be very distinct amongst managers and again depending on how 387 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 1: people are positioned in their portfolios, which is why you 388 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,360 Speaker 1: know it's it's again one of one of the key 389 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 1: themes you'll hear from us at PIMCO. Y active management 390 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,719 Speaker 1: and bottom up credit research is so important because we 391 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,439 Speaker 1: need to make sure we're in behalf of the market 392 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: that has the eighty recoveries, not the fifty recoveries. Can 393 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 1: you speak a little bit about the current liquidity that 394 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 1: exists in the marketplace right now? Sure? Actually, you know 395 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,640 Speaker 1: that's one of the bright spots I'd say frankly, Um, 396 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,640 Speaker 1: the loan market has now surpassed to trillion dollars. It's 397 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 1: closing in on being the same size as the high 398 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,480 Speaker 1: old bond market, and I think we see you know, 399 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:13,440 Speaker 1: similar liquidity in in in the loan and the bond markets. Um. 400 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:17,240 Speaker 1: But again it's it's it's somewhat distinct in different portions 401 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:19,439 Speaker 1: of the market. For some of the there has been 402 00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 1: an increase in smaller issuers and some of those smaller issuers, 403 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,639 Speaker 1: those deals tend to get sort of tucked away and 404 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 1: don't trade very often. But particularly in the larger corporate space, 405 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 1: the large liquid names that do have a diverse capital structure. Um, 406 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,160 Speaker 1: we we see pretty good, pretty good liquidity in those markets. 407 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:38,960 Speaker 1: How do you think that loans are going to fare 408 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 1: as rates rise, especially if it does kind of constrain 409 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 1: lending conditions? Well, sure, I think, Um, you know, loans 410 00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:48,600 Speaker 1: are are one of the few bright spots for fixed 411 00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 1: income in a rising rate environment. Because we're floating rate 412 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:54,600 Speaker 1: and prepayable, we don't have the duration impact that you 413 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,720 Speaker 1: might see in in investment grade and high yield markets. 414 00:24:57,840 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 1: I think that's one of the reasons you do see good, 415 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,440 Speaker 1: good flows coming into the market. Um. So, I think 416 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,560 Speaker 1: as long as the rate path continues to be a 417 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:10,640 Speaker 1: gradual rise with a more moderate endpoint, I think loan 418 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 1: should share actually pretty well. And again, keep in mind, 419 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 1: loans rates are rising because the economy is pretty strong, right, 420 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,840 Speaker 1: We've got a pretty steady US economic backdrop, We've got 421 00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 1: strong earnings still coming from corporates with still a pretty 422 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:28,760 Speaker 1: positive outlook there. Um And so in that during this 423 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,719 Speaker 1: tra directory where rates rise on a gradual path. That 424 00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 1: means things are pretty good in the U. S economy 425 00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,880 Speaker 1: and things should be pretty good for credit broadly, um, 426 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,160 Speaker 1: you know. And then it's it's more if we get 427 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:41,040 Speaker 1: to the end of the cycle, what happens, then that's 428 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 1: where we think about, you know, again, some of that 429 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 1: credit selection being in the right names when when that 430 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 1: turnaround happens. But for the foreseeable future, with with rising rates, 431 00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 1: that's actually a pretty pretty good place to be in 432 00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:54,520 Speaker 1: the loan market. Thank you very much for being with us. 433 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 1: Beth McClane is portfolio manager for Pimco talking about the 434 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:05,879 Speaker 1: bridge loan market. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P 435 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 1: and L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews 436 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 1: at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 437 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 1: I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm 438 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:20,359 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. 439 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.