WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: June 15, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:01.000 --> 0:00:04.439 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:04.519 --> 0:00:08.320 day Break for Wednesday, June fifty two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:12.800 the ECB holds an emergency meeting to discuss market conditions. 0:00:12.920 --> 0:00:15.160 The debate heats up on whether the Fed will hike 0:00:15.240 --> 0:00:18.480 fifty or seventy five basis points today. Sell off in 0:00:18.560 --> 0:00:22.640 crypto continues as bitcoin drops to twenty thousand and President 0:00:22.720 --> 0:00:26.520 Biden takes same at oil refiners record profits, gas bump 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:29.639 prices in the New York metro area hit a fresh record, 0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:33.520 Plus a look at Trump backed candidates, the latest GOP primaries. 0:00:33.720 --> 0:00:37.120 I'm Michael blarn More ahead, I'm John Stashower and Swords shutout. 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:39.120 Wins at home for both the Mets and Yankees, a 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:41.640 near no hither in St. Louis the Stanley Cup. Parnel 0:00:41.680 --> 0:00:46.960 begins The Night That's Alls Traded ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak 0:00:47.280 --> 0:00:51.600 on Bloomberg eleven three on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:55.360 d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:59.640 sixties and Francisco Syrius x M one nineteen and around 0:00:59.640 --> 0:01:02.279 the world Old on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and by 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:09.000 the Bloombird Business APT and good morning. I'm John Tucker, 0:01:09.319 --> 0:01:12.280 I'm Nathan Hagar. Futures are on the rise as we 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:14.800 wait to FED decision later today. It is coming up 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:16.399 to five oh one on Wall Street. We checked the 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:18.880 markets every fifteen minutes during the trading day. On Bloomberg. 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:21.600 Right now, SMP futures are up twenty points. Now Future 0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:24.080 is up a hundred forty NASTACK futures are highered by 0:01:24.240 --> 0:01:28.000 seventy one point. The tenure treasury is up fourteen thirty seconds. 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:30.760 The yield three point four one percent, yield on the 0:01:30.800 --> 0:01:33.839 two year three point three seven percent. NIMEX screwed down 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:36.399 eight tenths percent at a hundred eighteen dollars six cents 0:01:36.400 --> 0:01:39.520 of arrol. John and Nathan we begin in Europe. We're 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:41.640 in a few minutes from now. The European Central Banks 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:45.160 Government Council holds an ad hoc meeting to quote discuss 0:01:45.319 --> 0:01:49.360 current market conditions. Let's get more now from Bloomberg Markets 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:54.080 Live editor Lorcan roach Kelly. DCB meeting is more based 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:56.280 on what happening markets at home to how i'm spreads 0:01:56.280 --> 0:01:59.040 of boidant, how it news have moved out and what 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:00.960 the market WRO actual the last three or four days 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:02.640 has been I'm not going to sure it's going to 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:04.480 come with it. I think it's strange that these piece 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:07.440 holding the meeting before the FED decision. Sure they don't 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:09.040 know what the FED decisition is going to beat themselves, 0:02:09.320 --> 0:02:11.120 but the factor having to be in it all. Jerry 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:13.680 Markets say that is at least somewhat positive for euro Asset. 0:02:14.000 --> 0:02:17.680 Bloomberg's Lorcan roach Kelly says the Italian bonds of surge down. 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:20.960 The news of the unscheduled meeting sources the ECB officials 0:02:21.000 --> 0:02:24.160 may designed to reinvest bond purchases conducted under the bank's 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:28.480 pandemic Emergency program. Other measures could be considered as well. 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:31.960 That meant to get started in a few minutes, expected 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:34.440 to last about two hours. All right, John, Well, That 0:02:34.520 --> 0:02:37.400 ECB B meeting comes, of course, ahead of today's highly 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:41.160 anticipated decision from the Federal Reserve. The question there is 0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:44.560 how much j Pal and Company high grates. Michael McKee 0:02:44.680 --> 0:02:47.680 has more from our Bloomberg nine one newsroom in Washington. 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:50.639 The new market consensus is the FED will raise the 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:54.040 benchmark US lending rate by seventy five basis points. The 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:57.959 biggest increase since nine. That raises the question of what 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:01.880 next markets have Already in another seventy five basis point 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:04.600 move in July, investors will look to the dot plot 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:07.959 rate forecast and Chairman j Pal's news conference for a 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:11.480 ratification of that bet. A new median forecast for unemployment 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:14.760 of proxy for growth may suggest whether the central bankers 0:03:14.960 --> 0:03:18.600 still think they can bring down inflation without causing a recession. 0:03:19.040 --> 0:03:22.440 Michael McKee, Bloomberg Daybreak, All right, thanks Mike. Will it 0:03:22.520 --> 0:03:25.280 be seventy five basis points? Was summer calling for more 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:29.119 erging Square founder Bill Ackman's is a hundred basis point 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:32.600 hike would be better? The story from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett, 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:36.160 Ackman says not just today, but in July and thereafter. 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:39.120 Instead of the seventy five basis point hyke that some 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:42.440 economists are expecting, he said the central bank has allowed 0:03:42.480 --> 0:03:45.320 inflation to quote get out of control and calls for 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:50.320 aggressive action that would help restore market confidence. Writing on Twitter, 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:54.240 Ackman said, quote, the sooner the Federal Reserve can get 0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:58.280 to a terminal FF rate and thereafter can begin to ease, 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:02.360 the sooner the markets and recover in New York, Charlie 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:06.000 Bloomberg Daybreak, Well, Charlie Jeffrey gun Lacks taking an even 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:08.840 more aggressive stance than Bill Ackman. The Double Line Capital 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:11.240 CEO says the FED should raise its target interest right 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:14.400 to three percent today. That would be a two hundred 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:17.440 basis point hike. Markets are still firmly pricing in an 0:04:17.480 --> 0:04:20.480 increase of seventy five. Let's stay tuned for a complete 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:23.400 coverage of this critical FED decision on a special edition 0:04:23.400 --> 0:04:26.479 of Bloomberg Surveillance that is coming up at one pm 0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:29.840 Wall Street time on Bloth Bloomberg Radio and Television. And 0:04:29.960 --> 0:04:31.920 ahead of that decision, we're gonna get the main reading 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:35.960 on retail sales account's forecasting gain of just one tenth 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:38.760 of a percent. As we mentioned, John Us futures are 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:41.239 hired to start the day. Still, The SMP five hundred 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:44.120 closed down yesterday for a fifth straight session for its 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:48.279 longest slide since January. Mark Lazarie, CEO of Avenue Capital 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:51.360 Management and co owner of the Milwaukee Bucks, says week 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:55.480 economic sentiment continues to weigh on markets. Everybody knows we're 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:57.440 either getting into a recession or is going to be 0:04:57.480 --> 0:05:02.280 close to a recession. So um, I don't think there's 0:05:02.320 --> 0:05:05.080 a lot more negative news that's going to come out. 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:07.480 You know, the question really is going to be how 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:10.520 long is the recession? Is it three months? Is it 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:13.520 six months? Is it a year? Avenue Capital CEO Mark 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:17.360 Lazie says he thinks the upcoming recession will be short. Well, 0:05:17.440 --> 0:05:19.680 perhaps no sector has suffered him the sell off as 0:05:19.720 --> 0:05:24.040 much as cryptocurrencies. At Bitcoin lower again this morning, it 0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:27.760 approaches the twenty thousand level. Right now, it is trading 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:33.000 down seven percent at twenty seven dollars per token. Let's 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:36.280 get the latest line from Bloomberg's Really the Young Good morning, 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:39.720 Good morning John. Cryptal currencies have become emblematic of a 0:05:39.839 --> 0:05:43.720 flight from speculative assets. Strategists that Glass notes say the 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:47.520 bear market for bitcoin has entered its deepest and darkest phase. 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:51.919 Crypto lenders Celsius froze withdrawals on Monday, coin Based announced 0:05:51.960 --> 0:05:54.920 widespread layoffs on Tuesday. And all of this comes just 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:58.000 a month after the collapse of the terror USD stable coin. 0:05:58.279 --> 0:06:02.520 Royal markets means I'm Bill Gates is dismissing crypto projects 0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:05.520 like n f t S as shamps, saying there quote 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.360 based on the greater fool theory. He spoke at a 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:11.799 climate conference yesterday and says he's neither long north short. 0:06:11.880 --> 0:06:14.760 The asset class Live in New York, I'm reneed a 0:06:14.800 --> 0:06:16.720 young Bloomberg day break. Now we need a thank you. 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:20.120 Olst Crypto falls. Oil remains sky high. Pain at the 0:06:20.160 --> 0:06:23.320 pump is palpable, and President Biden's looking to ease the 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:26.240 strain for drivers. We're learning the Energy Department plans to 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:29.640 sell up to forty five million barrels from the Strategic Reserve. 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:33.440 Amy Morris has more from our Bloomberg newsroom. In Washington, 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:38.800 President Biden told oil refiners that unprecedented profit margins are unacceptable. 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:42.920 He's calling for immediate action to improve capacity. He's ordered 0:06:43.040 --> 0:06:46.160 Energy Secretary Jennifer Grenhelm to hold an emergency meeting on 0:06:46.240 --> 0:06:49.160 the subject in the coming days, and the administration will 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:52.320 hold talks with the National Petroleum Council. And he's calling 0:06:52.400 --> 0:06:56.080 on companies to explain why they've cut capacity. More than 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:59.000 a million barrels a day of US oil refining capacity, 0:06:59.080 --> 0:07:01.800 about five of the total, has been shut since the 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:05.880 start of the pandemic. In Washington. I'm any Morris, Bloomberg daybreak. 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:09.600 All right, thanks savannam X crewde right now down barrel 0:07:09.760 --> 0:07:14.920 at one seventeen six down futures up one, SMP futures 0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:19.040 of eighteen nasdack futures of sixty two. This is daybreak 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:25.360 has five. I was setting on Wall Street time to 0:07:25.400 --> 0:07:27.760 bring in Michael barn with mora hog. What else is 0:07:27.760 --> 0:07:30.480 going on in New York? Hand around the world, John, 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:33.560 Thank you very much, Sarah. US Representative Tom Rice of 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:36.280 South Carolina has been anounced it from Congress and his 0:07:36.360 --> 0:07:40.400 Republican primary after voting to impeach Donald Trump over the 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:45.400 January sixth. Then direction Rice, who only got was defeated 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:51.560 Tuesday by Trump backed state Congressman Russell Fry, who received fifty. Meanwhile, 0:07:51.640 --> 0:07:56.440 Representative Nancy Mace cleared the threshold to avoid a runoff 0:07:56.480 --> 0:07:59.840 against Trump. Back to Katie Errington, New York City Mayor 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:03.000 Eric Adams is going to endorse Governor Kathy Hocle in 0:08:03.120 --> 0:08:06.800 the New York governor's race. Hocal's campaign and adams political 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:10.200 adviser confirmed that Adams will make the announcement today in 0:08:10.280 --> 0:08:13.320 a joint appearance with the Democratic governor in New York City. 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:17.440 Adams endorsement comes as Hocal has pledged tougher action on 0:08:17.560 --> 0:08:20.840 gun crimes, including after the mass shooting in her hometown 0:08:20.920 --> 0:08:23.760 of Buffalo. Meanwhile, a month after the shooting at the 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:27.720 Top supermarket store, survivors, their families and others gathered at 0:08:27.760 --> 0:08:31.040 the scene to mark the somber event. Buffalo Mayor Byron 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:36.800 Brown words will never convey the heartbreak and pain this 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:41.600 senseless tragedy has caused. Mayor Brown says the shootings left 0:08:41.640 --> 0:08:44.800 ten people dead and three injured. Police in Suffolk County 0:08:44.960 --> 0:08:48.679 say at least fourteen children were injured when an inflatable 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:52.120 slide tipped over at a Long Island park. Some of 0:08:52.200 --> 0:08:54.560 the six and seven year olds were taken to the hospital, 0:08:54.640 --> 0:08:57.320 one with a broken leg. This seven year old was there, 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:03.360 there's too much people house, yeah, and then so over 0:09:04.520 --> 0:09:09.600 in the hospital. A statement from the Blond Dutch School 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:13.360 District says that the slide deflated while the kids were 0:09:13.400 --> 0:09:16.520 on it. Two police officers in el Monte, California, died 0:09:16.559 --> 0:09:19.120 in the line of duty. Athorities say the two men 0:09:19.200 --> 0:09:21.760 were responding to a possible stabbing at a hotel and 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:25.720 were fired upon by the suspect. El Monte Mayor Jessica Kna. 0:09:26.240 --> 0:09:28.959 These men were dedicated to their careers and even more 0:09:29.080 --> 0:09:34.120 so as son's husbands and fathers. Please keep their families 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:37.040 in your prayers, mayor and kind of says the suspect 0:09:37.160 --> 0:09:39.920 was also killed. Pump prices in the New York metro 0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:43.160 area had a fresh record. According to Triple A. Gas 0:09:43.240 --> 0:09:46.560 prices rose to a record five one a gallon overnight 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:50.680 for the area and five fifty for Manhattan Global News 0:09:50.760 --> 0:09:53.360 twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:57.080 quick Take, powered by more than journalists and analyists more 0:09:57.080 --> 0:10:01.160 than a hundred twenty countries. Michael barn This is bloom John, Michael, 0:10:01.200 --> 0:10:07.160 thank you now five sent on Wall Street Camp. That's 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:10.520 time with the Booberg Sports up to Mary Morny. John 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:13.640 Yankees and Matt's two best records in baseball Boat were 0:10:13.679 --> 0:10:16.560 at home. Both won, both with shutouts and le Bronx. 0:10:16.640 --> 0:10:19.520 Garrett Cole's outing whole lot better than one last week 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:21.840 in Minnesota when he allowed home runs but his first 0:10:21.880 --> 0:10:24.920 three batters and gave up five overall. Cole worked out 0:10:24.960 --> 0:10:27.200 of the basis load of jam sixth inning that ended 0:10:27.320 --> 0:10:29.480 his night. It preserved the shut out. The Yanks top 0:10:29.520 --> 0:10:31.959 Tampa Bay to nothing. It's cold, got to six and one. 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:35.559 Clay Holmes got the safe. He's been unbelievable twenty seven 0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:38.679 straight appearances. Not allowing to run at City Field was 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:41.880 Chris Bassett. Eight scoreless. Indians gave up just three hits. 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:44.840 The four nothing Mets win over Milwaukee two runs driven 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:47.560 in by Pete Alonzo leads to nashvill League fifty nine 0:10:47.840 --> 0:10:51.400 the Guys. In St. Louis, the Cardinals, Miles Nicholas had 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:53.880 a no witner with two outs, two strikes ninth inning. 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:56.679 A double by the Pirates cal Mitchell on Nicholas is 0:10:56.720 --> 0:10:59.439 a hundred and twenty ninth pitch, most thrown in the 0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:02.200 Major's season. They dropped the clock on the Stanley Cup 0:11:02.240 --> 0:11:04.719 final tonight and in Denver Tampa Bay lightning off the 0:11:04.760 --> 0:11:07.200 win over the Rangers and sinking a Stanley kept three. 0:11:07.280 --> 0:11:10.439 Pete playing Game one with Colorado, who's twelve and two 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:13.199 in the playoffs. Bruce Cassidy fired by the Bruins. He's 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:16.360 now the new coach of the Vegas Golden Knights to 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:19.360 Shaun Watson, formerly with Houston. Now he's got a massive 0:11:19.440 --> 0:11:22.960 contract a quarterback to Cleveland Browns is also facing twenty 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:27.559 four accusations of sexual misconduct. Watson met the media in Cleveland. 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:31.000 I've been honest and I've been truthful about my stance. Um, 0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:33.080 and that's you know. I've never forced anyone, I never 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:37.439 assaulted anyone. So um, that's what you know. I've been 0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:39.720 saying it from the beginning and I'm going to continue 0:11:39.720 --> 0:11:41.959 to do that and until all the facts come out 0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:44.679 on the legal side. NFL has been investigating the matter. 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:48.560 John Stashatward Bloomberg Sports, All right, thanks John, and uh 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:52.600 the meeting today friendly fell to Reserve futures are green 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:57.360 Bell futures up one eleven points, SMP futures of seventeen 0:11:57.559 --> 0:12:00.959 and the Nsday futures of sixty twos. You're listening to 0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:07.760 Bloomberg Debris and debray being brought to about the New 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:09.839 York Community Trust. Your name will live on as a 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:12.199 champion of the causes you care about for years to 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.839 come through a charitable big quest to the New York 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:18.480 Community Trust. Learn more at Philanthropist dot n y C 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:25.439 markets headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:28.560 at Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Business App, and at 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:37.920 Bloomberg Quick take this he's a Bloomberg business flash. I'm 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:40.160 Nathan Hagar. Futures are on the rise ahead of a 0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:43.720 crucial federal reserve policy decision this afternoon. Markets are pricing 0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:46.000 in the biggest rate hike from the US Central Bank 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:49.600 since nine We checked the markets every fifteen minutes during 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:52.360 the trading day on Bloomberg SMP futures right now up 0:12:52.440 --> 0:12:55.160 nineteen points down, futures up a hundred thirty one, Nasdaq 0:12:55.280 --> 0:12:58.360 futures up sixty seven points. The Dacks in Germany is 0:12:58.440 --> 0:13:00.560 up one point one percent to Hack and Harris higher 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:03.120 by nine tenths percent. The foot See one hundred in 0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:05.680 London is up nine tenths percent as well. The Tenure 0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:08.840 Treasury is up eighteen thirty seconds, yield three point four 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:11.320 zero percent on the tenure note, yield on the two 0:13:11.400 --> 0:13:14.000 year three point three four percent. Nim X scrude is 0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:16.120 down one point one percent, down a dollar twenty five 0:13:16.120 --> 0:13:18.360 at a hundred seventeen dollar. Sixty eight cents of barrol 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:20.720 comex gold up six tenths per cent, or eleven dollars 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:23.839 twenty cents at eighteen seventy announced. The euro one point 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:25.719 zero four eight seven against the dollar. The pound of 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:28.080 one point two zero nine three. The end is at 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:31.160 one thirty four point four eight. That's a Bloomberg Business flash. 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:33.240 And now here's Michael Barr with more on what's going 0:13:33.280 --> 0:13:35.880 on around the world. Good morning, Michael, Good morning. Nathan. 0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:39.160 US Representative Tom Rice of South Carolina has been announced 0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:42.400 it from Congress in his Republican primary after voting to 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:46.440 impeach Donald Trump over the January sixth insurrection. The five 0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:50.320 term congressman was defeated Tuesday by state Representative Russell Fry, 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:53.920 who was endorsed by Trump for I received fifty one percent, 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:58.200 well Rice got twenty percent. Brittney Griner's detention in Russia 0:13:58.320 --> 0:14:01.800 was extended until July. In according to task, the w 0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:05.880 NBA players being held on charges the drug smuggling in baseball, 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:08.040 the Yankees and Mets one. The Red Sox beat the 0:14:08.160 --> 0:14:11.120 A six one, The Orioles and Giants were winners. The 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:14.439 Nationals lost. Global News twenty four hours a day on 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:18.040 air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:20.880 seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. 0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:24.360 Michael Barn this is Bloomberg. John Michael, thank you. Coming 0:14:24.440 --> 0:14:26.920 up to twenty on Wall Street. We're live from the 0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:31.240 Bloomberg INTERRNTO Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. There is 0:14:31.320 --> 0:14:34.960 a critical federal reserve policy decision later today with markets 0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:40.200 pricing in the biggest rate hikes since and this morning 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:43.560 we have an emergency meeting by the European Central Bank 0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:46.480 in Europe. Let's take a deeper time this morning with 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:50.640 Jennifer Leeves, senior accountists at BEMO Capital Markets. Jenner, if 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:53.680 I could, let's start with the ECB. They're actually um 0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:56.920 achieving what I thought was the impossible. They're making federal 0:14:56.960 --> 0:15:00.680 reserve policy actually looks simple. Is there sense of panic 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:04.400 in Europe? I think there's a sense of concern. Good morning. 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:06.680 By the way, UM, it's kind of interesting that they 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:10.360 that they are meeting, and obviously they're concerned about bond 0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:13.640 yields surging in in in various countries across the Europe, 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:16.880 the European area, and the fact that last week when 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:19.760 they met, you know, there is no discussion apparently about 0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:24.880 fragmentation UM during the during the official press press conference, 0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:27.600 but afterwards the resources that came out that said that 0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:31.280 a large majority of the policymakers were against making an 0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:34.280 announcement on fragmentation. But obviously the way the markets have 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:37.360 been having UM of late is causing them to think 0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:39.520 twice about it again, and that's why they're probably meeting 0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:42.280 their original strategy. It sounds like it is in all 0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:46.080 sorts of trouble today a little bit, a little bit, 0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:48.960 but you know, there's like everyone has the one goal 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.960 right now, which is to you know, tackle the UM, 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:54.920 the big bag monster of inflation right now. But obviously 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:58.440 it has ramifications across across countries and across the asset 0:15:58.520 --> 0:16:03.400 classes for the ethel m C the expectation basis points 0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:08.680 well policy makers deliver here. Wow, that is a very 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:12.000 very tough question. It's it was very interesting. It's it's 0:16:12.000 --> 0:16:15.600 almost like, in my humble opinion, how can you that 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:17.560 very now the market is fully paced in for a 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:20.720 semified basis point hike, how can they not follow through? 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:23.560 I think they've almost backed themselves into a corner. And 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:26.320 if they don't follow through, they could be seen as weak. UM. 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:28.640 If they do follow through, or even maybe even with 0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:31.440 a larger one, you know, that would cause you know, 0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:34.040 probably a big reaction of financial markets. But at least 0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:37.520 it shows that they are sort of attacking this with 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:40.320 you know, with with everybody on board right now, um 0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:42.960 being a lot more aggressive as opposed to do the 0:16:43.000 --> 0:16:46.360 fifty basis points and just sound more aggressive um. You know, 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:50.560 incoming meetings. I think it's either way. We are still 0:16:50.600 --> 0:16:53.680 expecting fifty basis points, but obviously clearly there is a 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:56.000 huge risk of a much bigger, bigger move. Do we 0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:58.360 get some clarity on what the terminal rate there is 0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:02.520 going to be today's meeting they will hopefully give some 0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:06.240 clarity on a lot of different areas um UM. I 0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:09.399 think in terms of the neutral rate, it probably you know, 0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:12.240 I think they're probably going to be um keeping at 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:15.359 the upper range um and they're going to probably continue 0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:17.160 to say that we are going to lift rates until 0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:20.840 even beyond the neutral rate, and if necessary, will keep 0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:23.600 it there until you know, we start seeing inflation buckle 0:17:23.640 --> 0:17:26.040 a little bit. Um. But hopefully we'll get a lot 0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:28.800 more clarity on what they're hoping, what they're looking to see, 0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:31.320 and what they're looking to do in coming months. What 0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:34.960 are the drivers of inflation right now? Are they especially 0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:37.960 affected by rates? When you look at things like energy 0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:42.320 and food prices for starters, so right now, OK, at 0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:44.560 the beginning, it was more of an energy story and 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:47.639 that's something that Montre policy is not is unable to 0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:50.399 to to deal with. But as like you know, if 0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:53.840 a picture power has said many times, UM monetary policy 0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:56.840 is a very blunt instrument and it can be used 0:17:56.960 --> 0:18:00.720 to hurt or to hit UM demand. But the supply side, 0:18:00.920 --> 0:18:03.280 that's something that they can't cannot impact. But at least 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:05.560 they're gonna be able to impact one of the two 0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:08.280 factors that are pushing UM inflation higher, and that's on 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:10.960 the demand side. What do you and markets need to 0:18:11.080 --> 0:18:15.119 hear from the chairman at the press conference today? I 0:18:15.160 --> 0:18:18.040 would like to hear him, you know what, I think 0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:20.879 he's been been fairly clear. His communication has been has 0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:23.919 been very has been actually very good of late UM, 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:26.080 and he's always been saying that, you know what, they 0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:28.440 need to see inflation coming down. It can't be just 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:30.239 a few months. It's got to be a consistent move 0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:34.320 downward before they will consider pausing. It would be very interesting, 0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:36.560 by the way, to see what he says about the 0:18:36.640 --> 0:18:39.080 market turmoil, whether or not that's going to impact their 0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:41.760 decision and UM you know, seeing you know, salt markets 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.199 plunge the way they have, whether or not that's going 0:18:44.280 --> 0:18:47.600 to make them potentially hold back a little bit. What's 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:49.480 your impression of whether or not there's going to be 0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:53.680 a recession? If so, will be a deep one. Oh, 0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:56.480 very good questions that this morning. You know what, I 0:18:56.640 --> 0:18:59.760 think that there would the pot the risk continue to 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:03.760 run ice obviously, and the longer that inflation stays high, 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:07.920 the more aggressive the Fed continues to be. The chances 0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:11.040 of a recession in the next year are continuing to rise. 0:19:11.920 --> 0:19:14.920 Jen always a pleasure appreciate at Jennifer Lee, senior economist 0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:18.840 at Demo Capital Markets, with this this morning and ahead 0:19:18.880 --> 0:19:22.119 of that right decision at two o'clock today, we have 0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:24.960 a futures in the green this morning after this week's 0:19:24.960 --> 0:19:28.200 sell off. The down futures right now one eight points 0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:31.159 sire that's orians of about four tens of a percent. 0:19:31.480 --> 0:19:34.480 Smp emity futures they are up seventeen points, and the 0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:38.000 dance taking many futures right now they are up sixty points. 0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:41.439 And as we look to market volatility wall streets fear gage, 0:19:41.840 --> 0:19:46.200 the VIX is UH slightly deflated right now at thirty 0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:48.880 two fifty. The ten year yielding in the US three 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:53.159 point four percent. That he is down six basis points. 0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:55.840 The two year yield right now at three point three 0:19:56.119 --> 0:20:00.280 four that is down seven basis points. You're less nay. 0:20:00.440 --> 0:20:09.080 The Bloomberg Daybreak an the Bloomberg Weather from bb rologist 0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:13.240 Rob Caroline Today, abundant sunshine, the heights aperture topic at 0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:16.400 about the eight degrees tonight, partly ploudy. There's the chance 0:20:16.480 --> 0:20:19.359 of a few showers after the midnight. The Most sixty 0:20:19.400 --> 0:20:29.080 five broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio in 0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:32.880 New York, Bloomberg Living Freedland to Washington, d C. Bloomberg 0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:37.080 to Boston, Bloomberg one oh six one to San Francisco, 0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:40.399 Bloomberg nine six to the country, Sirius XM chand A 0:20:40.480 --> 0:20:43.640 one nineteen and around the globe, the Bloomberg Business app 0:20:43.760 --> 0:20:53.159 and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. He's 0:20:53.200 --> 0:20:55.520 five thirty on Blood Street. Good morning, I'm John Tucker 0:20:55.680 --> 0:20:58.040 and I'm Nathan Hagar. We're just about four hours away 0:20:58.040 --> 0:20:59.879 from the open of US trading. Let's get you up 0:20:59.920 --> 0:21:01.760 to date on the news you need to know at 0:21:01.800 --> 0:21:05.320 this hour. Right now, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde 0:21:05.320 --> 0:21:07.359 and her colleagues on the Governing Council are holding an 0:21:07.400 --> 0:21:10.480 emergency meeting to discuss market conditions. We caught up with 0:21:10.520 --> 0:21:13.760 the Finance Minister Married McGinnis ahead of the meeting. The 0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:16.800 ECP is doing its job, so I think that's important. 0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:19.760 I'm not going to second yes, the conversations that will 0:21:19.840 --> 0:21:22.760 take place at this meeting, but clearly, since the beginning 0:21:22.800 --> 0:21:25.399 of this year, and particularly since the invasion, the illegal 0:21:25.440 --> 0:21:29.200 invasion by Russia of Ukraine, there is uncertainty in markets. 0:21:29.400 --> 0:21:32.119 The Youth Finance Commissioner, Married McGinnis says the meeting should 0:21:32.240 --> 0:21:35.280 last about two hours. The ECB gathering comes on the 0:21:35.359 --> 0:21:38.200 same day the Fed makes an interest rate decision. The 0:21:38.440 --> 0:21:41.320 question now is how much the federal hike. Let's get 0:21:41.359 --> 0:21:45.200 more from Bloomberg's thinning down Judais. Most economists anticipate another 0:21:45.280 --> 0:21:48.680 half point rate increase today, lifting the feds target range 0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:52.359 between one point two five percent and one point five percent, 0:21:52.720 --> 0:21:55.080 but some say they wouldn't be surprised if the Fed 0:21:55.200 --> 0:21:58.520 opts for something more, a larger move and expension mark 0:21:58.600 --> 0:22:02.120 interest rate. Bloomberg Economics says the FEDS dot plot, which 0:22:02.240 --> 0:22:05.440 traces the likely path of US interest rates, could move 0:22:05.560 --> 0:22:08.520 to three percent or a bit higher next year. Any 0:22:08.600 --> 0:22:12.160 dope Bloomberg day, All right, thanksny One economists predictive fifty 0:22:12.240 --> 0:22:15.320 basis point hike. Markets are now pricing in a seventy 0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:19.360 point increase now. Futures are higher ahead of the FED decision. 0:22:19.440 --> 0:22:23.240 But it's a different story for crypto currencies. Bitcoin is 0:22:23.600 --> 0:22:26.439