WEBVTT - Bengals Booth Podcast: How Far I'll Go

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<v Speaker 1>Hi, get everybody. I'm Dan Horde and thanks for downloading

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<v Speaker 1>the Bengals Booth Podcast. The There's just no telling how

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<v Speaker 1>far I'll go. Addition, as we look ahead to the

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty four season with Robert Weintraub, who writes about

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<v Speaker 1>the Bengals for the FTN Football Almanac and Cincinnati Magazine

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<v Speaker 1>dot com. The Bengals Booth Podcast is brought to you

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<v Speaker 1>by pay Core, Proud to be the Bengals official HR

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<v Speaker 1>software provider, by Alta Fiber future proof fiber Internet designed

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<v Speaker 1>to elevate your home, business and community to a new level,

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<v Speaker 1>and by Kettering Health the best care for the best fans.

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<v Speaker 1>Kettering Health is the official healthcare provider of the Bengals.

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<v Speaker 1>Now here's a quick reminder that you can have the

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<v Speaker 1>latest edition of this podcast delivered right to your phone, tablet,

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<v Speaker 1>or computer by subscribing wherever you get your podcasts. It's

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<v Speaker 1>the greatest thing since the Cincinnati Three Way. No, this

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<v Speaker 1>is not a reference to Skyline Chile. The three Way

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<v Speaker 1>in this case is the trio of Joe Burrow, Red

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<v Speaker 1>shortstop Eli de la Cruz and FC Cincinnati midfielder Lucco Acosta.

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<v Speaker 1>Does any city have a more fun and charismatic trio

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<v Speaker 1>of sports stars in different sports than Cincinnati. De la

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<v Speaker 1>Cruz is an All Star at twenty two years old

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<v Speaker 1>and on a pace to have twenty six homers in

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<v Speaker 1>seventy eight stolen bases this season. Acosta is the reigning

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<v Speaker 1>MLS MVP and currently has five more assists than anybody

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<v Speaker 1>else in the league. Leonel Messi ranked second, and the

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<v Speaker 1>last three times Joe Burrow has finished a season healthy,

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<v Speaker 1>he's won a college national championship, gone to the Super Bowl,

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<v Speaker 1>and made it to the AFC Championship Game. They say

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<v Speaker 1>that good things come in threes, and I can't think

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<v Speaker 1>of another city with a better trio of must see

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<v Speaker 1>sports stars. Now time for this week's guest. The ft

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<v Speaker 1>On Football Almanac, formerly known as the Football Outsiders Almanac,

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<v Speaker 1>came out this week and if you're thinking about buying

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<v Speaker 1>one preseason guide to the NFL, this is the one

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<v Speaker 1>to get. There are a lot of stats in advanced

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<v Speaker 1>data in the book if that's your thing, but I

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<v Speaker 1>mostly enjoy it for the writing. The Almanac is not

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<v Speaker 1>only informative, it's very entertaining. There's an in depth look

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<v Speaker 1>at every NFL team and the Cincinnati chapter was written

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<v Speaker 1>by my friend Robert Weintraup, who also writes about the

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<v Speaker 1>Bengals on a regular basis for Cincinnati Magazine dot com. Robert,

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<v Speaker 1>I want to start with a sentence in your season

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<v Speaker 1>preview that sounds a little ominous for Bengals fans.

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<v Speaker 2>Here's the quote.

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<v Speaker 1>The team is poised for one more championship run before

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Burrow's massive contract extension fully kicks in in twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five. Do you view this as something of a

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<v Speaker 1>make or break year?

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<v Speaker 2>Make or break is awfully strong, you know, especially in Cincinnati.

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<v Speaker 2>I know they don't ever look at, you know, their

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<v Speaker 2>team that way. It's always with a big picture, and

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<v Speaker 2>certainly fans don't want to think of it that way

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<v Speaker 2>in terms of, hey, we got to be here next year.

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<v Speaker 2>What's going to happen if they don't win the Super Bowl?

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<v Speaker 2>Joe Burrow's gonna be traded, you know. I mean Jamar

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<v Speaker 2>Chay He's going to go into his fashion career and

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<v Speaker 2>Jamar Chase will be alongside him wherever he goes. And

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<v Speaker 2>Perry or Milan or whatever. I don't think so, And

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<v Speaker 2>it's not really so much that state of mind as

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<v Speaker 2>much as it just is. As we all know, Burrow's

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<v Speaker 2>contract extension really kicks in starting next season goes I

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<v Speaker 2>thinking cap percentage somewhere along the lines of from you know,

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<v Speaker 2>twelve percent to seventeen percent going from next year to

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<v Speaker 2>this year. And last year was only around eight so

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<v Speaker 2>you know, obviously the cap goes up. Things change. We

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<v Speaker 2>don't have to worry too much about that. But I

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<v Speaker 2>definitely think there's a sense that the time is not

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<v Speaker 2>you know, I think there was that sense last year too,

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<v Speaker 2>and obviously it got you know, Pig Skinnis interrupt this

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<v Speaker 2>as I call it in the in the almanac this

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<v Speaker 2>year because of the fact that Burrow was hurt and

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<v Speaker 2>they had some problems, but mainly it was because of

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<v Speaker 2>the fact we didn't get to see Joe at his

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<v Speaker 2>full you know, greatness is I like to always point

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<v Speaker 2>out with you, and you know, now is a season

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<v Speaker 2>where he can pick up where he left off before

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<v Speaker 2>he got injured for good last year. And I think

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<v Speaker 2>we're seeing, you know, the team realize that with t

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<v Speaker 2>Higgins one more run, maybe you know some other players

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<v Speaker 2>who we don't know about just yet, but you know,

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's really more of the fact that they've

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<v Speaker 2>drafted now, you know, so heavily on defense. In the

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<v Speaker 2>last three years of their ten premium picks, eight have

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<v Speaker 2>been on defense. It's it's almost like a combination of

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<v Speaker 2>a make or break and a transition year. It's time

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<v Speaker 2>for those guys to kind of step forward and become

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<v Speaker 2>the new core of the defense. The new core of

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<v Speaker 2>the team really let the team win in somewhat different ways,

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<v Speaker 2>rather than relying on the burrow and the passing attack

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<v Speaker 2>all the time. Do kind of what Kansas City has

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<v Speaker 2>proven they've been able to do over the last couple

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<v Speaker 2>of years. They re energized and reignited their defense with

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<v Speaker 2>great drafting and didn't have to rely on Patrick Mahomes

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<v Speaker 2>quite so much until the time came, you know, in

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<v Speaker 2>the postseason when his greatness shown. I think that's a

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<v Speaker 2>plan and a method of attack for the Bengals probably

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<v Speaker 2>would want to use in the end too, win in

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of different ways. And then when they have

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<v Speaker 2>to have Joe come through, we know he's capable of

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<v Speaker 2>doing so.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, So, as you pointed out, t Higgins is

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<v Speaker 1>the most obvious star who could be gone at the

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<v Speaker 1>end of the year. The market for Tea I think

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<v Speaker 1>has been established by some of the other contracts that

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<v Speaker 1>are out there. It's probably around twenty three million dollars

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<v Speaker 1>a year. Jamar Chase is going to get Justin Jefferson's

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<v Speaker 1>money roughly thirty five million dollars a year. So, in

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<v Speaker 1>your opinion, should they try to keep both of those

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<v Speaker 1>guys at those prices or they are are they better

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<v Speaker 1>off spending he's approximately twenty three mili on other positions?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah? Well, I mean I think that decision's pretty much

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<v Speaker 2>been made really that they're not going to resign Tee

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<v Speaker 2>barring you know, unforeseen circumstances happening. You never really know.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, God forbid, Chase could get hurt and they

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<v Speaker 2>feel like they need Higgins or me to you know,

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<v Speaker 2>they can franchise tag him again for another year, potentially

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<v Speaker 2>next year. So you know, nothing is obviously written in concrete.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think the overall vibe is a you can't

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<v Speaker 2>pay two receivers enormous money, or if you can, you're

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<v Speaker 2>really hamstringing your team in other areas, especially if you're

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<v Speaker 2>also paying the quarterback huge money. That's that's now you're

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<v Speaker 2>talking about an enormous percentage of your cap tied up

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<v Speaker 2>in just three guys, and we've seen, especially with t

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<v Speaker 2>you know, injuries are going to you know, play a

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<v Speaker 2>major factor. As part of the reason why his you know,

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<v Speaker 2>sort of contract projection as you put it, around twenty

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<v Speaker 2>three million ish is so low is mainly because he

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<v Speaker 2>hasn't been able to stay on the field over the

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<v Speaker 2>last year a year and a half. So, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>I think they think to themselves wide receivers are much

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<v Speaker 2>more replaceable than some other positions. We've seen that all

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<v Speaker 2>through the league. It's not really a reflection on TEA.

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<v Speaker 2>Kind of reminds me of where Aj Green was a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit in his first year with Burrow, Burrow's rookie year. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 2>he and Green and t Higgins are different places in

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<v Speaker 2>their respective careers, but it was sort of the same

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<v Speaker 2>can you stay healthy? Are you worthy of a bigger

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<v Speaker 2>contract right now? Where are you? He's sort of caught

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<v Speaker 2>in between. It's in his best interest to have a

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<v Speaker 2>big season this year. Obviously, that would help him in

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<v Speaker 2>the market, it would help the Bengals greatly obviously, and

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<v Speaker 2>it might rethink and recalibrate the Bengals thinking too. But

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<v Speaker 2>I think overall, they're probably more inclined to spend the

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<v Speaker 2>money elsewhere, you know, eventually replace at other positions of need,

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<v Speaker 2>which are going to have to do and spend more

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<v Speaker 2>money to do so. And you know that's where a

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<v Speaker 2>guy like Jermaine Burton, who they were happy to get

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<v Speaker 2>in the third round this year, players are going to

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<v Speaker 2>have an important role this season already as to show

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<v Speaker 2>themselves worthy of being replacements for Higgins. And if that's

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<v Speaker 2>the case, then you know everybody will shake hands and

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<v Speaker 2>move on. But I do think in their minds it's

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<v Speaker 2>certainly leaning towards this is Te's final year in Cincinnati.

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<v Speaker 1>A perfect segue to asking you about the draft, because

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<v Speaker 1>you read about this year's draft class for Cincinnati Magazine

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<v Speaker 1>and called the picks solid but slightly risky in your view,

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<v Speaker 1>was this the time to take big swings on players

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<v Speaker 1>like Jermaine Burton, who had some maturity concerns and first

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<v Speaker 1>round pick Marius Mims, who had some injury issues.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, you know, we say is at the time.

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<v Speaker 2>It's sort of like if a guy who you think

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<v Speaker 2>is as quality and as high level of potential as

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<v Speaker 2>Amarius Mims is available to you where he was in

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<v Speaker 2>the draft, you know, and there's always a good time

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<v Speaker 2>to do that. You know, it remains to be seen

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<v Speaker 2>whether their evaluation is correct, but there's no question that

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<v Speaker 2>he has the sort of pedigree and talent and overall

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<v Speaker 2>physical presence that was worthy of a top ten pick,

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<v Speaker 2>and they obviously got a much later than that, So

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<v Speaker 2>you know, there's never a wrong time to do that theoretically.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, if they had been picking in the top

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<v Speaker 2>ten and had their choice, would they have picked a

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<v Speaker 2>quote unquote safer guy there? Maybe, But you know, I

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<v Speaker 2>think it's he was obviously the pick where they got him,

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<v Speaker 2>and I don't think they thought of it as a

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<v Speaker 2>particularly big risk. You know, we just look at it

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<v Speaker 2>from a sort of background point of view. He had

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<v Speaker 2>some injury problems at Georgie, didn't get a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>playing time, so he's not the finished product. But you

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<v Speaker 2>can't argue with his prospect. He's as high graded prospect

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<v Speaker 2>as they've drafted on the offensive line in some time,

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<v Speaker 2>really so. And in terms of Burton, again, they were

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<v Speaker 2>very comfortable with taking him where they did. Clearly I

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<v Speaker 2>think they thought about taking him earlier than that. I

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<v Speaker 2>think TJ. Houschmanzata was in their ears, saying take this guy,

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<v Speaker 2>and they listened to TJ and how could you not?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, you know, Who'sh's Who'sh's magic when it comes

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<v Speaker 2>to that kind of stuff. And again, you know, they

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<v Speaker 2>need a player of his caliber to step forward if

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<v Speaker 2>they are going to replace t. Higgins next year and

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<v Speaker 2>they need a you know, ideally a first round level player,

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<v Speaker 2>and if they can get him in the third round,

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<v Speaker 2>then yeah, that was that was turned into a great pick.

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<v Speaker 2>Whether it happens or not remains to be seen obviously,

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<v Speaker 2>but you know there's no oh, you know, we had

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<v Speaker 2>to play it safe this year because of Burrows contract

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<v Speaker 2>kicking in or anything like that. I think the two

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<v Speaker 2>are pretty mutually independent. You take the prospect, the best

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<v Speaker 2>one where you can get him, and how he fits

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<v Speaker 2>into your team, and looking ahead for this year and

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<v Speaker 2>next in the year after potentially without thinking to yourself, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>like you know, oh, with this big year for us

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<v Speaker 2>in terms of getting to the super Bowl, we got

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<v Speaker 2>to take our big swings on uh, you know, boomer

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<v Speaker 2>Bus dish products. You know, for the most part, everybody

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<v Speaker 2>is a boomer Bus prospect. Really, I mean there's only

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<v Speaker 2>a handful of guys you know are going to be

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<v Speaker 2>really good players, like Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow. Everybody

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<v Speaker 2>else you crossing your fingers a little bit, so I

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<v Speaker 2>don't even really look at it that way. I thought

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<v Speaker 2>they did a good job getting those guys where they did,

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<v Speaker 2>and now you just hope that they can contribute, and

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<v Speaker 2>the earlier the better.

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<v Speaker 1>Robert Weintraub is our guest. He writes about the Bengals

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<v Speaker 1>for Cincinnati Magazine, and he has written the Bengals chapter

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<v Speaker 1>and this year's FTN Football Almanac. The almanac projects win

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<v Speaker 1>totals for every NFL team. The Bengals check in at

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<v Speaker 1>nine point eight with a sixty percent chance of making

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<v Speaker 1>the playoffs. Can you give us a reader's digest version

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<v Speaker 1>of how that's calculated and what it means?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, as I have told you in the past, we

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<v Speaker 2>play out the season and it's your favorite number one

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<v Speaker 2>million times through with the doctor evil impressions in that sense.

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<v Speaker 2>But yes, we played the season out humongous number of times,

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<v Speaker 2>and that just counts for every potential variable, and you know,

0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:01.800
<v Speaker 2>the better teams win more off in in that giant

0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:04.040
<v Speaker 2>sample size. It's basically the way to look at it

0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:06.920
<v Speaker 2>in terms of the nine point eight number. That doesn't

0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:10.840
<v Speaker 2>mean they're going to go ten and seven, you know, definitively,

0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:13.040
<v Speaker 2>or nine to eight, however you want to look at it.

0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:15.080
<v Speaker 2>It just gives you sort of a baseline approach to

0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:17.880
<v Speaker 2>how good they are. And you know, the real place

0:12:17.920 --> 0:12:20.679
<v Speaker 2>to look is in the margins in terms of percentages

0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:23.360
<v Speaker 2>of their seasons. You know, the Bengals for a long

0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:27.000
<v Speaker 2>time kind of were more likely than not to win

0:12:27.160 --> 0:12:30.800
<v Speaker 2>fewer than nine games, or really fewer than five games,

0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:34.280
<v Speaker 2>and not really win twelve or more, which makes them

0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:36.560
<v Speaker 2>what we call a super Bowl contender. This year, you know,

0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:40.200
<v Speaker 2>twenty five percent of those seasons they win twelve plus games,

0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:42.840
<v Speaker 2>putting them right into the super Bowl mix. Only I

0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:45.280
<v Speaker 2>think four percent of the seasons that they win five

0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:47.439
<v Speaker 2>or fewer games, which puts them near to the top

0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:50.000
<v Speaker 2>of the draft. And you saw last year, you know,

0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:53.000
<v Speaker 2>we I think had the same conversation and I said,

0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:55.199
<v Speaker 2>sort of idly, the only way that was going to

0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:57.320
<v Speaker 2>happen where they finished at the top of the draft

0:12:57.360 --> 0:12:59.760
<v Speaker 2>would be a Joe Burrow injury. Sure enough, Joe Burrow

0:12:59.800 --> 0:13:01.640
<v Speaker 2>was her and they still won nine games, So I

0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:03.520
<v Speaker 2>should tell you the level of the team is obviously

0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:06.800
<v Speaker 2>much higher than just dependent on one player. They have

0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:09.600
<v Speaker 2>a you know, a very good chance of being in

0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:11.720
<v Speaker 2>the mix for the Super Bowl. Whether or not they

0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:14.319
<v Speaker 2>win the division, whether or not they win nine games,

0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:17.720
<v Speaker 2>ten games, eleven games sort of not really important from

0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:19.920
<v Speaker 2>the way we look at it in terms of those numbers.

0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:22.719
<v Speaker 2>What is important is there a top flight contender in

0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:25.880
<v Speaker 2>the AFC, and you know, barring again more injuries, it's

0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:28.920
<v Speaker 2>a key players at key times. Really they should be

0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:29.680
<v Speaker 2>right there in the mix.

0:13:30.720 --> 0:13:34.840
<v Speaker 1>The schedule could help them exceed nine point eight wins.

0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:37.679
<v Speaker 1>The Almanac raided the Bengals schedule last year among the

0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:41.040
<v Speaker 1>toughest in the publication's twenty year history. What do the

0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:44.120
<v Speaker 1>numbers tell us this year, at least going into the season.

0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:47.680
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I always have to remember, of course, it's a

0:13:47.720 --> 0:13:51.200
<v Speaker 2>projection and anything can happen, as we saw last year. Yeah,

0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:54.400
<v Speaker 2>they had the eighth hardiest schedule of all time by

0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:56.839
<v Speaker 2>our numbers, in terms of when we've been doing it

0:13:56.880 --> 0:13:59.160
<v Speaker 2>since I think we recalculated all the way back to

0:13:59.200 --> 0:14:01.760
<v Speaker 2>the nineties now, so you know, it's a long time

0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:04.199
<v Speaker 2>to have the eighth hardest schedule and that was because

0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:06.880
<v Speaker 2>of obviously the division was extremely difficult, plus the first

0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:09.560
<v Speaker 2>place schedule came around, had a lot of tough games,

0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:13.520
<v Speaker 2>and the Bengals actually had a top twelve ranking in

0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:17.240
<v Speaker 2>terms of our efficiency which is adjusted by opponents and

0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:20.359
<v Speaker 2>the you know, their overall efficiency just as a baseline

0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:22.920
<v Speaker 2>was a little bit above average, but then when it

0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:26.200
<v Speaker 2>was adjusted because of their difficult schedule, it got much higher.

0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:28.960
<v Speaker 2>And you know, we do the same thing as a

0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:32.040
<v Speaker 2>projection for coming up this year with the last place

0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:34.840
<v Speaker 2>schedule and the rotation and just in terms of you know,

0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:37.240
<v Speaker 2>sort of the movement around the league, we project them

0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:40.520
<v Speaker 2>as having the twenty seventh hardest schedule in the league. Now,

0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:44.880
<v Speaker 2>again that doesn't mean necessarily anything. Teams rise and fall

0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.320
<v Speaker 2>the time. Look at the Houston Texans, everybody thought, y, oh,

0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:50.080
<v Speaker 2>that's the automatic w last year, and of course they

0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:52.080
<v Speaker 2>turned out to be a really good team. And you know,

0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.160
<v Speaker 2>that's written the same way throughout the week, but it

0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:57.920
<v Speaker 2>is a sort of baseline to look at and think, Okay,

0:14:57.960 --> 0:15:00.720
<v Speaker 2>they have a much better shot at least of having

0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:02.880
<v Speaker 2>a few breathers in the schedule where they didn't have

0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:05.640
<v Speaker 2>last year. And obviously that was compounded by the fact

0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:07.720
<v Speaker 2>that they were playing without Burrow for a lot of

0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:10.280
<v Speaker 2>those games, et cetera. And the fact that Jake Browning

0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:13.400
<v Speaker 2>did so well when he took over really helped their

0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:17.960
<v Speaker 2>overall numbers in terms of efficiency and kind of helped

0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:21.480
<v Speaker 2>their projection going forward this year. So that's a big

0:15:21.520 --> 0:15:23.200
<v Speaker 2>part of it too. So kudos to Jake. I don't

0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:24.960
<v Speaker 2>want to leave him out of this discussion to make

0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:29.840
<v Speaker 2>it about Joe, but yeah, the schedule definitely on paper

0:15:29.880 --> 0:15:32.080
<v Speaker 2>at least lightens up quite a bit, so hopefully that'll

0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:34.520
<v Speaker 2>have a nice effect on the season overall.

0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:39.160
<v Speaker 1>How did Browning compare to Burrow? Keeping in mind last

0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:41.280
<v Speaker 1>year that in the first four weeks of the season

0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:44.880
<v Speaker 1>Burrow wasn't Burrow. It was just the five game stretch

0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:48.320
<v Speaker 1>after that where he performed as were accustomed to seeing

0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:49.240
<v Speaker 1>him perform.

0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:52.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, you know, we didn't necessarily the numbers

0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:55.520
<v Speaker 2>don't take that into account. The fans do. We all

0:15:55.560 --> 0:15:57.960
<v Speaker 2>saw it. He was not He was a shadow of Burrow.

0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:00.840
<v Speaker 2>He wasn't the real Joe. I like to say so

0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:03.360
<v Speaker 2>in that sense, you have to take the numbers with

0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:06.120
<v Speaker 2>the grand salt. But the good numbers are the Jake

0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:10.120
<v Speaker 2>Browning performed exceptionally well on a lot of advanced metrics

0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:14.240
<v Speaker 2>and really kind of surprising to me that no team

0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:17.480
<v Speaker 2>pushed harder to try and try him loose from Cincinnati.

0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:20.880
<v Speaker 2>I thought that, you know, a guy, granted small sample size,

0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:24.080
<v Speaker 2>but we've seen it before, backup quarterbacks come in and

0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:25.720
<v Speaker 2>have a good half and all of a sudden their

0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:29.160
<v Speaker 2>desired commodities around the league, and that didn't happen so

0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:31.240
<v Speaker 2>much with Browning. Whether or not he just put it

0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:33.080
<v Speaker 2>out there that he wanted to stay in Cincinnati and

0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:35.240
<v Speaker 2>that was it, or there were other behind the scenes

0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:39.320
<v Speaker 2>machinations I couldn't tell you, but you know, he obviously

0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:42.520
<v Speaker 2>gives the Bengals a backup that they haven't had quality

0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:45.920
<v Speaker 2>backup they haven't had in the Borough era or even

0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:49.240
<v Speaker 2>you know, going back to John Kitnap maybe. So I mean,

0:16:49.240 --> 0:16:51.360
<v Speaker 2>that's great to have. As we've seen around the league

0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:54.840
<v Speaker 2>and not just in Cincinnati, having a second quarterback rather

0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:58.240
<v Speaker 2>than a backup quarterback is very important. I live in

0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:00.920
<v Speaker 2>Atlanta and they put their entire drefts around that as

0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:03.840
<v Speaker 2>we sell, so you know, it's it's a good thing

0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:06.879
<v Speaker 2>to have. And he was very, very strong in our

0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:10.879
<v Speaker 2>numbers Browning last year and above Burrow in certain areas

0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:14.159
<v Speaker 2>as well. Again you know with the caveat that Burrow

0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:17.000
<v Speaker 2>was only Burrow for about a month month and change

0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:17.600
<v Speaker 2>last season.

0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:21.840
<v Speaker 1>All right, Robert, what are your biggest concerns and or

0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:24.479
<v Speaker 1>question marks going into this season?

0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:27.440
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think it's the same as we were having

0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:29.919
<v Speaker 2>last season, which was the defense has to step up.

0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:31.959
<v Speaker 2>And again it goes back to those rookies and the

0:17:32.000 --> 0:17:34.920
<v Speaker 2>younger players now that I've talked about, you know, stepping

0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:38.840
<v Speaker 2>forward and becoming key members of the team. You know,

0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:42.040
<v Speaker 2>it's sort of Bengals defense last year in particular, was

0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:45.240
<v Speaker 2>unless Trey Hendrickson gets a pass rush, you know, they're

0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:47.800
<v Speaker 2>getting gas for huge yardage, whether it's on the ground

0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:50.480
<v Speaker 2>or through the year. Uh, you know, the Bengals had

0:17:50.520 --> 0:17:53.840
<v Speaker 2>the biggest difference in terms of our numbers when from

0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:56.720
<v Speaker 2>between when they got pass pressure on a quarterback and

0:17:56.880 --> 0:17:59.920
<v Speaker 2>between when they did not. In other words, if Henry

0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:02.040
<v Speaker 2>Soon got a rush in or you know, one of

0:18:02.040 --> 0:18:04.960
<v Speaker 2>the other guys less often, but mainly Hendrickson when he

0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:08.760
<v Speaker 2>was around the quarterback, the defense was good. When he

0:18:08.840 --> 0:18:11.720
<v Speaker 2>was not around the quarterback, it was good news for

0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:14.040
<v Speaker 2>the offense, and they moved the ball pretty much at will.

0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:17.320
<v Speaker 2>Bengals were really near the bottom and forcing three and out.

0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:20.600
<v Speaker 2>They were terrible in terms of outside the perimeter coverage.

0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:23.120
<v Speaker 2>Teams threw deep on him. They were terrible in terms

0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:26.880
<v Speaker 2>of tackling. I think they went from seventy six miss

0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:29.200
<v Speaker 2>tackles in twenty twenty two to one hundred and twenty

0:18:29.280 --> 0:18:35.000
<v Speaker 2>four last season. That's a pretty sizeable leap. Jermaine Pratt

0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:36.960
<v Speaker 2>just not to single him out, because it was a

0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:40.080
<v Speaker 2>team wide breakdown. It takes a village to be defense

0:18:40.119 --> 0:18:42.399
<v Speaker 2>that bad. But Pratt went from six miss tackles in

0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:45.800
<v Speaker 2>an outstanding twenty twenty two last year, he missed seventeen.

0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:48.280
<v Speaker 2>And I think we can all agree him and Logan

0:18:48.359 --> 0:18:50.520
<v Speaker 2>Wilson took a bit of a step back last year.

0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:53.280
<v Speaker 2>And the linebackers are a key element in your team

0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:57.280
<v Speaker 2>sort of overall run defense and speed vibe, and the

0:18:57.280 --> 0:18:59.280
<v Speaker 2>way they played in twenty two is a big reason

0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:02.919
<v Speaker 2>the defense was good. Obviously, they played without you know,

0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:05.760
<v Speaker 2>their starting safeties from twenty two last year. That's a

0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:08.399
<v Speaker 2>concern whether or not Geno Stone can lock down that

0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:11.240
<v Speaker 2>deep third of the field and whether or not the

0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:14.600
<v Speaker 2>young corners can step up. Does Dax Hill have a role?

0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:17.320
<v Speaker 2>There's a lot of question marks around the team. Miles Murphy,

0:19:17.400 --> 0:19:19.400
<v Speaker 2>how does he fit in? Do we, you know, get

0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:22.240
<v Speaker 2>a real first round production out of him, even though

0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:25.280
<v Speaker 2>he's not going to get necessarily the playing time that

0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:27.240
<v Speaker 2>you would imagine for a guy picked in the first

0:19:27.280 --> 0:19:30.520
<v Speaker 2>round because of Sam Hubbard and Hendrickson's presence. So a

0:19:30.560 --> 0:19:33.000
<v Speaker 2>lot of question marks. They have talent, though, I mean,

0:19:33.040 --> 0:19:36.760
<v Speaker 2>and that's key, and they haven't established defensive coordinator who

0:19:36.760 --> 0:19:38.879
<v Speaker 2>can make the most out of that talent. Who's probably

0:19:38.920 --> 0:19:41.640
<v Speaker 2>I would imagine lou Anrumo anxious to put twenty twenty

0:19:41.680 --> 0:19:44.359
<v Speaker 2>three behind him, get the team back to tackling the

0:19:44.359 --> 0:19:47.920
<v Speaker 2>way they were the year before, and really just that.

0:19:48.040 --> 0:19:51.840
<v Speaker 2>I mean, if you can improve those tackling numbers even

0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:54.840
<v Speaker 2>by half, you know that puts you much closer to

0:19:54.920 --> 0:19:57.600
<v Speaker 2>the base one of the league, and your team looks

0:19:57.640 --> 0:19:59.639
<v Speaker 2>a whole lot better. You get off the field on

0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:03.320
<v Speaker 2>third a lot more, and you know you're you're not

0:20:03.480 --> 0:20:05.760
<v Speaker 2>always playing behind the eight ball and worrying about the

0:20:05.760 --> 0:20:07.560
<v Speaker 2>other team running the ball down in your throat. That

0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:09.880
<v Speaker 2>was a big problem last year. We'll see if Chris

0:20:09.960 --> 0:20:12.840
<v Speaker 2>Jenkins helps out at all. We'll see how Sheldon Rankins

0:20:12.840 --> 0:20:17.560
<v Speaker 2>helps out. Losing DJ Reader was a problem. But you know,

0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:19.760
<v Speaker 2>it's not like Sheldon Rankins is not a good run defender.

0:20:19.800 --> 0:20:22.320
<v Speaker 2>He's a very good run defender. He had basically the

0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:26.199
<v Speaker 2>same run stopping numbers in our stats as Reader. There

0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:28.840
<v Speaker 2>are different players, and Reader is more of a you know,

0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:31.639
<v Speaker 2>giant in the middle who just gums up everything, whereas

0:20:31.720 --> 0:20:34.439
<v Speaker 2>Rankings actually goes and makes the tackle. But you know

0:20:34.480 --> 0:20:37.080
<v Speaker 2>he can play very good run defense when asked. So

0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:39.680
<v Speaker 2>I'm you know, I'm anxious to see how that works out,

0:20:39.720 --> 0:20:43.439
<v Speaker 2>how the overall run defense steps up after a disastrous

0:20:43.440 --> 0:20:46.840
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty three and if they can make those changes.

0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:49.160
<v Speaker 2>You know this, this guy's the limit for this defense.

0:20:49.200 --> 0:20:51.439
<v Speaker 2>They've played really well in the past. It's just a

0:20:51.520 --> 0:20:53.200
<v Speaker 2>question of getting back to that level.

0:20:53.960 --> 0:20:55.880
<v Speaker 1>Or with Robert in a moment. But first, a quick

0:20:55.920 --> 0:20:58.159
<v Speaker 1>reminder that the Bengals Booth Podcast is brought to you

0:20:58.200 --> 0:21:01.520
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0:21:01.640 --> 0:21:05.760
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0:21:05.760 --> 0:21:08.879
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0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:13.240
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0:21:13.400 --> 0:21:17.160
<v Speaker 1>Kettering Health is the official healthcare provider of the Bengals.

0:21:18.160 --> 0:21:21.240
<v Speaker 1>I want to follow up on Trey Hendrickson. Miles Garrett

0:21:21.240 --> 0:21:23.000
<v Speaker 1>was the NFL defensive Player of the year.

0:21:23.200 --> 0:21:23.520
<v Speaker 2>TJ.

0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:26.359
<v Speaker 1>Watt finished second. You point out in the Almanac this

0:21:26.480 --> 0:21:30.959
<v Speaker 1>year that Trey Hendrickson had more pressures than either of

0:21:31.000 --> 0:21:34.800
<v Speaker 1>those guys, which I wasn't aware of. Just how good

0:21:35.400 --> 0:21:36.200
<v Speaker 1>is Trey Hendrickson.

0:21:36.960 --> 0:21:38.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, if you will get his numbers, not just last year,

0:21:38.920 --> 0:21:42.440
<v Speaker 2>but over the last three years, even basically since Trey

0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:45.800
<v Speaker 2>became Trey in Cincinnati, his numbers are right there with

0:21:45.880 --> 0:21:50.000
<v Speaker 2>Garrett and TJ. Watt a little bit be slightly behind,

0:21:50.040 --> 0:21:53.000
<v Speaker 2>a half step behind, but you know, certainly not to

0:21:53.040 --> 0:21:55.240
<v Speaker 2>the point where as I say in the Almanac, you know,

0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:57.960
<v Speaker 2>he has basically one one hundredth of the sort of

0:21:58.080 --> 0:22:01.960
<v Speaker 2>national Q rating if you of Garrett and Watt. Now,

0:22:02.400 --> 0:22:05.360
<v Speaker 2>part of that is because Garrett and would have made

0:22:05.520 --> 0:22:09.119
<v Speaker 2>sort of splash gear plays. They have more turnovers. Garrett

0:22:09.119 --> 0:22:11.240
<v Speaker 2>obviously is a one man wrecking crew. We've seen it

0:22:11.280 --> 0:22:15.560
<v Speaker 2>first hand all these years. It's terrible lot to Hendrickson.

0:22:15.600 --> 0:22:19.080
<v Speaker 2>Slightly behind maybe in that respect respect, but he's been

0:22:19.119 --> 0:22:21.920
<v Speaker 2>outstanding in terms of generating pressure on quarterbacks, and as

0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:25.080
<v Speaker 2>I alluded to before, he's basically the one man who

0:22:25.640 --> 0:22:27.800
<v Speaker 2>sort of sets the tone for the Bengals defense. If

0:22:27.800 --> 0:22:31.200
<v Speaker 2>he's around the quarterback, the Bengals defense looks a heck

0:22:31.240 --> 0:22:33.159
<v Speaker 2>of a lot better. And when he's not on the field,

0:22:33.840 --> 0:22:36.920
<v Speaker 2>you really notice it. So it's a big problem that

0:22:37.000 --> 0:22:40.119
<v Speaker 2>they haven't really been able to generate rush outside of

0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:43.280
<v Speaker 2>him for the most part, and his presence on the

0:22:43.280 --> 0:22:45.720
<v Speaker 2>field a lot is key, and I think that you know,

0:22:45.960 --> 0:22:49.000
<v Speaker 2>he has to play a few more snaps probably than

0:22:47.960 --> 0:22:52.239
<v Speaker 2>is maybe warranted for his advancing years, and just in

0:22:52.280 --> 0:22:54.720
<v Speaker 2>general at the length of the season, you'd like to

0:22:54.760 --> 0:22:57.320
<v Speaker 2>get that third pass rusher, which is why Murphy again

0:22:57.440 --> 0:22:59.840
<v Speaker 2>is so key, I think for this season to get

0:23:00.320 --> 0:23:04.040
<v Speaker 2>another player at least in the stratosphere of Hendrickson's ability

0:23:04.080 --> 0:23:07.280
<v Speaker 2>to get near the quarterback. And as for you know,

0:23:07.400 --> 0:23:09.919
<v Speaker 2>just in terms of why he doesn't get the you know,

0:23:10.000 --> 0:23:12.320
<v Speaker 2>same pub as a Garrett or what part of it

0:23:12.359 --> 0:23:14.919
<v Speaker 2>is because they're they're the Bengals and not the Browns

0:23:14.920 --> 0:23:17.119
<v Speaker 2>and the Steelers who have you know, the huge national

0:23:17.119 --> 0:23:22.080
<v Speaker 2>followings and certainly the Steelers, and you know, his personality

0:23:22.160 --> 0:23:24.639
<v Speaker 2>is not just what the other two guys are. Perhaps

0:23:24.720 --> 0:23:27.480
<v Speaker 2>it's hard to really know for sure. The Bengals generally

0:23:27.480 --> 0:23:30.120
<v Speaker 2>don't get those kind of, you know, sort of national

0:23:30.200 --> 0:23:33.919
<v Speaker 2>love as other teams players do necessarily I'm here stumping

0:23:34.000 --> 0:23:37.800
<v Speaker 2>for you, Trey, though I think you should. And he

0:23:37.920 --> 0:23:41.200
<v Speaker 2>talk about great pass rushers. Pass rushers excuse me in

0:23:41.200 --> 0:23:43.719
<v Speaker 2>the league really has to include Hendrickson because he's right

0:23:43.800 --> 0:23:45.840
<v Speaker 2>up there and at the top. You know, more than

0:23:45.920 --> 0:23:47.399
<v Speaker 2>just one year now, it's been a it's been a

0:23:47.440 --> 0:23:48.440
<v Speaker 2>large sample size.

0:23:49.080 --> 0:23:51.720
<v Speaker 1>Robert Weintraub is our guest. He wrote the Bengals chapter

0:23:51.800 --> 0:23:55.760
<v Speaker 1>in the FTN Football Almanac this year. There's some interesting

0:23:55.880 --> 0:24:01.080
<v Speaker 1>data in the almanac about the age where players traditionally

0:24:01.200 --> 0:24:05.200
<v Speaker 1>decline at each position, so it breaks it down by position,

0:24:05.280 --> 0:24:09.359
<v Speaker 1>and for running backs, the age is twenty eight. Joe

0:24:09.359 --> 0:24:13.399
<v Speaker 1>Mixons about to turn twenty eight. Did the Bengals act

0:24:13.440 --> 0:24:14.160
<v Speaker 1>at the right time?

0:24:15.880 --> 0:24:18.560
<v Speaker 2>You know, it's amazing how the narrative has changed, because

0:24:18.880 --> 0:24:21.480
<v Speaker 2>at this time two years ago, we were talking about

0:24:21.600 --> 0:24:23.639
<v Speaker 2>is it time to move on from Joe Mixon. Feels

0:24:23.680 --> 0:24:25.840
<v Speaker 2>like we've had this discussion for a while, and then

0:24:25.880 --> 0:24:27.639
<v Speaker 2>they signed him and he played well, and then of

0:24:27.680 --> 0:24:29.560
<v Speaker 2>course last year he took a pay cut to stay,

0:24:29.600 --> 0:24:31.720
<v Speaker 2>and it was sort of a surprise that he did,

0:24:32.200 --> 0:24:34.879
<v Speaker 2>and he responded with an excellent season. I have no

0:24:34.960 --> 0:24:37.560
<v Speaker 2>doubt that he has football left in the tank, and

0:24:37.600 --> 0:24:39.960
<v Speaker 2>we all love Joe, but that doesn't mean the time

0:24:40.040 --> 0:24:42.760
<v Speaker 2>wasn't right for him to go. He certainly is not

0:24:42.880 --> 0:24:45.240
<v Speaker 2>an explosive back, and they were looking to up their

0:24:45.359 --> 0:24:48.359
<v Speaker 2>explosiveness out of the backfield. I think there's no question

0:24:48.440 --> 0:24:51.960
<v Speaker 2>about that. I don't know if it was necessarily just

0:24:52.000 --> 0:24:54.560
<v Speaker 2>because he's turning twenty eight. I think in a couple

0:24:54.640 --> 0:24:57.960
<v Speaker 2>of places they did what I call doing the Belichick,

0:24:58.040 --> 0:24:59.680
<v Speaker 2>which is you get rid of a guy maybe a

0:24:59.760 --> 0:25:02.720
<v Speaker 2>year earlier rather than a year too late. I think

0:25:02.720 --> 0:25:05.280
<v Speaker 2>you saw that with DJ Reader. Really that was a

0:25:05.440 --> 0:25:07.800
<v Speaker 2>you know, sort of a fifty to fifty on defense decision,

0:25:07.840 --> 0:25:10.280
<v Speaker 2>and sometimes it's better just to pull the cord. Now

0:25:10.359 --> 0:25:14.119
<v Speaker 2>with Mixing, I think, you know, the handwriting was on

0:25:14.160 --> 0:25:17.080
<v Speaker 2>the wall last year and it was sort of, you know,

0:25:17.440 --> 0:25:19.600
<v Speaker 2>surprised that he came back and played so well and

0:25:19.600 --> 0:25:22.359
<v Speaker 2>he had an excellent season. Finally catching the ball on

0:25:22.440 --> 0:25:24.680
<v Speaker 2>the backfield they used them the way we'd been us

0:25:24.720 --> 0:25:27.360
<v Speaker 2>analyst types had been begging for the team to use

0:25:27.440 --> 0:25:30.840
<v Speaker 2>him all these years, and he had an outstanding season

0:25:30.880 --> 0:25:32.960
<v Speaker 2>catching the ball. The good news is Zach Moss, his

0:25:33.280 --> 0:25:36.679
<v Speaker 2>nominal replacement, at least partially, had a very good season

0:25:36.720 --> 0:25:40.080
<v Speaker 2>also catching the football, and we saw what Chase Brown

0:25:40.119 --> 0:25:42.679
<v Speaker 2>can do in his limited snaps as a receiver. They

0:25:42.680 --> 0:25:44.800
<v Speaker 2>should be able to make that happen. It still feels

0:25:44.800 --> 0:25:46.639
<v Speaker 2>to me like the Bengals are a little light in

0:25:46.720 --> 0:25:48.520
<v Speaker 2>the running back room, and I mean that in a

0:25:48.600 --> 0:25:52.040
<v Speaker 2>literal way. They could use sort of the extra poundage

0:25:52.080 --> 0:25:54.960
<v Speaker 2>that they lose with mixing at twenty five. They don't

0:25:54.960 --> 0:25:58.399
<v Speaker 2>really have a running back of that size or you know,

0:25:58.840 --> 0:26:02.000
<v Speaker 2>Moss three for eleven inside the five yard line last

0:26:02.080 --> 0:26:04.040
<v Speaker 2>year in terms of punching it into the end zone.

0:26:04.320 --> 0:26:07.400
<v Speaker 2>Chase Brown no real history of that, but doesn't seem

0:26:07.480 --> 0:26:10.040
<v Speaker 2>like that kind of running back necessarily. You'd like to

0:26:10.080 --> 0:26:12.520
<v Speaker 2>have a guy, as they were talking about last year,

0:26:12.520 --> 0:26:16.560
<v Speaker 2>perhaps getting in Jamal Williams type frame back there and

0:26:16.600 --> 0:26:18.760
<v Speaker 2>if he's cut, maybe he's available, or you know, a

0:26:18.760 --> 0:26:21.479
<v Speaker 2>guy in the street, even like Kareem Hunt, who you know,

0:26:21.520 --> 0:26:23.840
<v Speaker 2>we don't think of as having much left, but he

0:26:23.920 --> 0:26:26.480
<v Speaker 2>was outstanding in short yardage situations last year, and we

0:26:26.520 --> 0:26:29.159
<v Speaker 2>know he can catch the football. Well, somebody like that

0:26:29.359 --> 0:26:31.320
<v Speaker 2>just who you know isn't going to get a lion's

0:26:31.320 --> 0:26:33.679
<v Speaker 2>share of the carries, obviously, but somebody who can improve

0:26:33.720 --> 0:26:37.320
<v Speaker 2>your depth and in those specific short yardage situations where

0:26:37.320 --> 0:26:39.960
<v Speaker 2>the Bengals were terrible last year in part because of

0:26:40.000 --> 0:26:43.080
<v Speaker 2>the offensive line but also because of running back situations.

0:26:43.920 --> 0:26:46.480
<v Speaker 2>I think they'd be well behooved to add to their mix.

0:26:46.880 --> 0:26:49.000
<v Speaker 2>And I think, you know, a three headed monster is

0:26:49.040 --> 0:26:51.119
<v Speaker 2>better than a two headed monster in this scenario.

0:26:51.960 --> 0:26:54.080
<v Speaker 1>Maybe some I JP Ryan gets cut.

0:26:54.960 --> 0:26:58.080
<v Speaker 2>That's possible. I mean, certainly he would be welcomed back

0:26:58.160 --> 0:27:01.879
<v Speaker 2>with open arms. I tend to doubt it, just because

0:27:01.920 --> 0:27:05.160
<v Speaker 2>he's such a good, heady player, a safety valve, very

0:27:05.160 --> 0:27:07.879
<v Speaker 2>good receiver. We know he's good in pass protection. And

0:27:07.880 --> 0:27:10.520
<v Speaker 2>then you have a rookie quarterback now in Denver. Presumably

0:27:10.960 --> 0:27:13.000
<v Speaker 2>that's kind of a guy you'd like to have around

0:27:13.000 --> 0:27:15.640
<v Speaker 2>a rookie and you know, just be a security blanket

0:27:15.720 --> 0:27:18.840
<v Speaker 2>of the backfield. So I'd be surprised, But stranger things

0:27:18.840 --> 0:27:21.080
<v Speaker 2>have happened, and I'm sure that the Bengals will be

0:27:21.080 --> 0:27:24.760
<v Speaker 2>circling around all the cuts who who you know, code

0:27:24.760 --> 0:27:27.800
<v Speaker 2>down to the wire there and probably almost certainly will

0:27:27.840 --> 0:27:30.320
<v Speaker 2>sign somebody else you know going forward.

0:27:31.200 --> 0:27:34.200
<v Speaker 1>I also just want to clarify that doing the Belichick

0:27:34.320 --> 0:27:37.480
<v Speaker 1>does not refer to dating a much younger woman.

0:27:42.359 --> 0:27:45.639
<v Speaker 2>If you're correct, and you know, it doesn't mean that

0:27:45.720 --> 0:27:47.480
<v Speaker 2>you appear at a roast all of a sudden for

0:27:47.560 --> 0:27:50.040
<v Speaker 2>your ex quarterback and deal a sense of humor that

0:27:50.119 --> 0:27:53.639
<v Speaker 2>you've had apparently tucked away for lo these many years.

0:27:53.680 --> 0:27:56.840
<v Speaker 2>But there's many definitions of doing the Belichick. I chose

0:27:56.880 --> 0:27:59.760
<v Speaker 2>the on field and the front office one, no question.

0:28:00.320 --> 0:28:02.200
<v Speaker 1>All right, let's talk about some of the other teams

0:28:02.200 --> 0:28:05.800
<v Speaker 1>in the division. Baltimore is projected to win eleven point

0:28:05.840 --> 0:28:08.679
<v Speaker 1>two games, Number one in the AFC, number two in

0:28:08.720 --> 0:28:12.800
<v Speaker 1>the NFL behind San Francisco. I think the Ravens lost

0:28:12.920 --> 0:28:16.960
<v Speaker 1>more good players and coaching talent than any other team

0:28:17.000 --> 0:28:19.399
<v Speaker 1>in the NFL, But it doesn't seem to have had

0:28:19.840 --> 0:28:23.639
<v Speaker 1>much impact on the FTN Football Almanac forecast.

0:28:23.680 --> 0:28:27.680
<v Speaker 2>Why not, Well, mainly because they were coming from such

0:28:27.720 --> 0:28:29.919
<v Speaker 2>a high place to begin with. It's sort of like,

0:28:30.119 --> 0:28:33.560
<v Speaker 2>you know, if you're on top of the Empire State

0:28:33.600 --> 0:28:36.480
<v Speaker 2>Building or the Bursh Khalifa and you step down into

0:28:36.520 --> 0:28:39.200
<v Speaker 2>an ordinary skyscraper all of a sudden, it's like, oh,

0:28:39.520 --> 0:28:43.040
<v Speaker 2>what happened? But the truth is, you know, yes, I agree,

0:28:43.040 --> 0:28:45.880
<v Speaker 2>they've lost a lot of players in a lot of depth,

0:28:46.000 --> 0:28:48.640
<v Speaker 2>and it doesn't get much run. I feel like in

0:28:48.680 --> 0:28:51.240
<v Speaker 2>the national media, not yet anyway, were stir early. But

0:28:51.320 --> 0:28:54.320
<v Speaker 2>you know, three fifths of their offensive line, and obviously

0:28:54.320 --> 0:28:58.240
<v Speaker 2>they're highly talented defensive coordinator Geno Stone as we know

0:28:58.320 --> 0:29:01.400
<v Speaker 2>in Love, etc. Et cetera, Odell Beckham who had sort

0:29:01.400 --> 0:29:06.040
<v Speaker 2>of an underrated not necessarily statistical performance but just sort

0:29:06.080 --> 0:29:08.400
<v Speaker 2>of the presence on the team last year. I thought

0:29:08.440 --> 0:29:10.480
<v Speaker 2>he helped. But let's face it, they still have a

0:29:10.480 --> 0:29:13.800
<v Speaker 2>lot of really good players. They're really strong that spine

0:29:13.840 --> 0:29:17.120
<v Speaker 2>of their defense with Mattibuike and Rokwan Smith and Kyle

0:29:17.160 --> 0:29:21.000
<v Speaker 2>Hamilton his outstanding obviously got the MVP at quarterbacks, So

0:29:21.200 --> 0:29:24.960
<v Speaker 2>that's a good place to start. And you know, there,

0:29:25.280 --> 0:29:27.880
<v Speaker 2>we've seen it before. They've lost a lot of players

0:29:27.960 --> 0:29:30.000
<v Speaker 2>and you sort of think other Ravers in or trouble,

0:29:30.000 --> 0:29:34.040
<v Speaker 2>whether through free agency and trays and things like that,

0:29:34.120 --> 0:29:37.080
<v Speaker 2>or just from injuries, and yet they still somehow managed

0:29:37.120 --> 0:29:39.080
<v Speaker 2>to have a good team. They have a great organization.

0:29:39.120 --> 0:29:42.160
<v Speaker 2>As we know, they're really our chief rival. I think

0:29:42.160 --> 0:29:45.360
<v Speaker 2>in a lot of ways, you know, not not emotionally necessarily,

0:29:45.400 --> 0:29:51.320
<v Speaker 2>but just sort of realistically, and you know, underestimating them

0:29:51.440 --> 0:29:53.680
<v Speaker 2>is something I've learned to do and not to do

0:29:53.800 --> 0:29:57.280
<v Speaker 2>anymore or at my peril. So you know, they're they're

0:29:57.320 --> 0:30:00.520
<v Speaker 2>still very high, and you know that's kind of why

0:30:01.520 --> 0:30:04.280
<v Speaker 2>you know, the projection system still loves where they're at,

0:30:04.400 --> 0:30:06.760
<v Speaker 2>is because they were so good last year and they

0:30:06.800 --> 0:30:09.000
<v Speaker 2>didn't have very far to fall and even you know,

0:30:09.120 --> 0:30:12.760
<v Speaker 2>unless they lose Lamar or something like that, you know

0:30:12.840 --> 0:30:15.440
<v Speaker 2>they're still going to be a handful in the AFC Overall.

0:30:15.440 --> 0:30:18.640
<v Speaker 1>In the question, the Browns have the third highest projected

0:30:18.640 --> 0:30:20.800
<v Speaker 1>wind total in the division at nine point two. The

0:30:20.840 --> 0:30:24.240
<v Speaker 1>Almanac describes Cleveland as having one of the best non

0:30:24.360 --> 0:30:27.600
<v Speaker 1>quarterback rosters in the NFL. So let's talk about the quarterback.

0:30:27.920 --> 0:30:31.440
<v Speaker 1>Deshaun Watson has played twelve games in two years in Cleveland.

0:30:31.800 --> 0:30:34.600
<v Speaker 1>The traditional stats aren't goods past the ratings bad. He

0:30:34.600 --> 0:30:38.880
<v Speaker 1>hasn't thrown many touchdown passes. What did the advanced stats

0:30:38.920 --> 0:30:43.080
<v Speaker 1>say about Deshaun Watson's play when he's been available.

0:30:44.280 --> 0:30:46.920
<v Speaker 2>It's been bad. I mean, there's just no way, you know,

0:30:46.960 --> 0:30:49.920
<v Speaker 2>around that. And I'm not saying it's a bad thing

0:30:49.960 --> 0:30:54.120
<v Speaker 2>as a Bengal fan either. Yeah, I think you saw

0:30:54.160 --> 0:30:56.480
<v Speaker 2>what they did last last year in Cleveland, though in

0:30:56.600 --> 0:31:01.719
<v Speaker 2>large part was because they got want to they get Watson.

0:31:01.760 --> 0:31:04.640
<v Speaker 2>He was hurt, you know, but they played almost the

0:31:04.680 --> 0:31:08.480
<v Speaker 2>way they wanted to play without Watson in there, which

0:31:08.520 --> 0:31:10.880
<v Speaker 2>is never a safe position. But because of the contract,

0:31:10.960 --> 0:31:14.320
<v Speaker 2>they can't really admit that out loud, certainly and to themselves.

0:31:14.360 --> 0:31:17.280
<v Speaker 2>Maybe you know that the offense looked the way I

0:31:17.280 --> 0:31:20.040
<v Speaker 2>think they wanted it to play much more with Joe

0:31:20.120 --> 0:31:23.840
<v Speaker 2>Flacco than with Deshaun Watson. And you know they brought

0:31:23.840 --> 0:31:27.320
<v Speaker 2>in Ken Dorsey as no offensive coordinator to sort of unleash,

0:31:27.480 --> 0:31:30.720
<v Speaker 2>if you will, a deeper game that Flacco managed to

0:31:30.800 --> 0:31:34.800
<v Speaker 2>get done. For Deshaun Watson, the question is is he

0:31:34.880 --> 0:31:37.760
<v Speaker 2>capable of that? You know, first of all, coming off

0:31:37.760 --> 0:31:41.240
<v Speaker 2>a shoulder surgery that's obviously going to have some effect.

0:31:41.240 --> 0:31:43.600
<v Speaker 2>It's hard to know what. And more to the point,

0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:46.800
<v Speaker 2>he hasn't played like the quarterback that quote unquote Deshaun

0:31:46.840 --> 0:31:51.400
<v Speaker 2>Watson is supposed to be in you know, a lifetime

0:31:51.440 --> 0:31:54.240
<v Speaker 2>in terms of NFL the way of thinking. It's I

0:31:54.240 --> 0:31:56.400
<v Speaker 2>can't even remember, you know what year was when I

0:31:56.680 --> 0:31:59.160
<v Speaker 2>last went into a game thinking, Oh, Deshaun Watson's going

0:31:59.240 --> 0:32:01.160
<v Speaker 2>to win this one by him. So, you know, the

0:32:01.200 --> 0:32:04.240
<v Speaker 2>Browns last year did a lot with mirrors. They had

0:32:04.320 --> 0:32:08.680
<v Speaker 2>obviously an outstanding defense, and they finally sort of addressed

0:32:09.080 --> 0:32:11.960
<v Speaker 2>the properts and a lot of those guys like Martin

0:32:12.000 --> 0:32:17.480
<v Speaker 2>Emerson and the joker Ousu Carasmo and you know, various

0:32:17.480 --> 0:32:20.200
<v Speaker 2>other players on their defense and really had an outstanding unit.

0:32:21.600 --> 0:32:24.760
<v Speaker 2>But you know, their their offensive baseline, which we always

0:32:24.800 --> 0:32:28.080
<v Speaker 2>think of with the Browns, their great offensive line wasn't

0:32:28.120 --> 0:32:31.000
<v Speaker 2>so great last year. And now they lose Bill Callahan,

0:32:31.080 --> 0:32:34.960
<v Speaker 2>their all time great offensive line coach, who should have

0:32:34.960 --> 0:32:36.960
<v Speaker 2>been in Cincinnati all these years. I'll never get over

0:32:37.000 --> 0:32:40.920
<v Speaker 2>that either. But that's another side topic. So there's question

0:32:40.960 --> 0:32:42.800
<v Speaker 2>marks there. You know, they kind of ran the football

0:32:42.840 --> 0:32:45.120
<v Speaker 2>a little bit with mirrors last year, got some big plays,

0:32:45.120 --> 0:32:48.640
<v Speaker 2>but weren't very efficient about it. And of course now

0:32:48.640 --> 0:32:50.760
<v Speaker 2>you don't know what you're gonna get with Watson, and

0:32:50.800 --> 0:32:53.200
<v Speaker 2>I think they showed their hand by ruy loading up

0:32:53.440 --> 0:32:56.760
<v Speaker 2>in terms of backups in Cleveland, they have now four

0:32:56.840 --> 0:33:01.440
<v Speaker 2>guys who could realistically play, not Joe Flacco. So yeah,

0:33:01.600 --> 0:33:03.560
<v Speaker 2>they're a real question mark for me. They had a

0:33:03.600 --> 0:33:06.000
<v Speaker 2>good projection because they had a very good season last

0:33:06.040 --> 0:33:11.479
<v Speaker 2>year and it's not like they lost obvious players aside

0:33:11.480 --> 0:33:13.280
<v Speaker 2>from Bill Callahan. You know, you know, look at their

0:33:13.360 --> 0:33:16.760
<v Speaker 2>roster and think, oh, it's going to get substantially worse.

0:33:17.160 --> 0:33:20.120
<v Speaker 2>But of course, as we know, the quarterback is the

0:33:20.120 --> 0:33:23.640
<v Speaker 2>main you know pull on your entire team, and I

0:33:23.640 --> 0:33:25.080
<v Speaker 2>don't think they can count on that, and I don't

0:33:25.080 --> 0:33:27.520
<v Speaker 2>think anybody watching them should count on that until you

0:33:27.560 --> 0:33:28.840
<v Speaker 2>see it out of Deshaun Watson.

0:33:29.840 --> 0:33:31.680
<v Speaker 1>And finally we get to the Steelers. They have the

0:33:31.720 --> 0:33:35.000
<v Speaker 1>lowest projected win total at seven point four. Don't you

0:33:35.280 --> 0:33:39.080
<v Speaker 1>number crunchers know that a Mike Tomlin coach team is

0:33:39.120 --> 0:33:41.160
<v Speaker 1>going to find a way to win at least nine games.

0:33:42.120 --> 0:33:44.840
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we've got to figure that into the algorithm. Somehow.

0:33:45.040 --> 0:33:48.600
<v Speaker 2>Surpise that Mike hasn't shown up at the offices and

0:33:48.720 --> 0:33:51.240
<v Speaker 2>just you know, started smashing things and talking, you know,

0:33:51.280 --> 0:33:53.320
<v Speaker 2>one of his great pep talks and said we're winning,

0:33:53.360 --> 0:33:55.240
<v Speaker 2>We're going nine to eight. I don't care what we

0:33:55.320 --> 0:33:57.880
<v Speaker 2>have to do or what the numbers say. It is

0:33:57.920 --> 0:34:00.400
<v Speaker 2>true they somehow managed to pull that winning record out

0:34:00.400 --> 0:34:05.120
<v Speaker 2>of their posterior seemingly every year without particular reason for it.

0:34:05.200 --> 0:34:07.440
<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's not like they don't have good players.

0:34:07.920 --> 0:34:10.160
<v Speaker 2>And I think a large part this year the projection

0:34:10.280 --> 0:34:13.319
<v Speaker 2>system is looking at the course their quarterback situation and

0:34:13.360 --> 0:34:17.400
<v Speaker 2>thinking to themselves, well, you got you replaced one or

0:34:17.400 --> 0:34:20.160
<v Speaker 2>two or three bad quarterbacks with one or two or

0:34:20.640 --> 0:34:25.640
<v Speaker 2>x bad quarterbacks, and what's going to change? And you know,

0:34:25.719 --> 0:34:30.240
<v Speaker 2>the projection last year they obviously exceeded, but that doesn't

0:34:30.239 --> 0:34:32.440
<v Speaker 2>mean that we should project them to do that again.

0:34:33.480 --> 0:34:35.359
<v Speaker 2>You know, like you say, they always find a way.

0:34:35.440 --> 0:34:39.879
<v Speaker 2>So perhaps that's just you know, the numbers not really

0:34:39.880 --> 0:34:42.520
<v Speaker 2>taking reality into account. But it's hard to take that

0:34:42.640 --> 0:34:45.400
<v Speaker 2>kind of magic into account when you look at their team. Now,

0:34:45.440 --> 0:34:48.600
<v Speaker 2>it's possible that either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields find

0:34:48.719 --> 0:34:51.400
<v Speaker 2>some sort of magic out of nowhere and blend with

0:34:51.520 --> 0:34:55.080
<v Speaker 2>Arthur Smith. They're a new offensive coordinator and obviously Tomlin

0:34:55.239 --> 0:34:58.600
<v Speaker 2>and they're better than we think. But it's going to

0:34:58.640 --> 0:35:01.319
<v Speaker 2>be very hard for you know, again the projection ships

0:35:01.360 --> 0:35:03.760
<v Speaker 2>and these to see it before they believe it, especially

0:35:03.800 --> 0:35:06.560
<v Speaker 2>with quarterbacks who have had you know, several poor seasons

0:35:06.560 --> 0:35:10.279
<v Speaker 2>in a row and ancholytically like Wilson and fields. So

0:35:10.920 --> 0:35:13.800
<v Speaker 2>despite you know, having players like t. J. Watt on

0:35:13.840 --> 0:35:16.560
<v Speaker 2>the field and Jalen Warren and all their other good players,

0:35:16.560 --> 0:35:18.400
<v Speaker 2>and you know, they have a decent roster. It's not

0:35:18.400 --> 0:35:21.799
<v Speaker 2>like they're a bad team. We know that firsthand. But

0:35:22.480 --> 0:35:25.120
<v Speaker 2>just looking at their projection, it's hard to see them

0:35:26.320 --> 0:35:28.799
<v Speaker 2>again doing anything until the quarterbacks prove that they can

0:35:28.840 --> 0:35:30.800
<v Speaker 2>do it one or the other. Sort of the same

0:35:30.840 --> 0:35:33.000
<v Speaker 2>situation with the Browns were in. They're just kind of

0:35:33.000 --> 0:35:36.840
<v Speaker 2>the Browns writ a little bit less talented. Really, the

0:35:36.920 --> 0:35:39.880
<v Speaker 2>Browns have a little bit more of a steadier defense

0:35:39.880 --> 0:35:42.120
<v Speaker 2>than last year than the Steelers did and the more

0:35:42.120 --> 0:35:45.000
<v Speaker 2>of a reliable kind of way to win games. The Steelers,

0:35:45.239 --> 0:35:47.359
<v Speaker 2>you know, as we know, seem to you know, find

0:35:47.400 --> 0:35:50.759
<v Speaker 2>these miracle ways of pulling w's out of nowhere, and

0:35:51.000 --> 0:35:54.080
<v Speaker 2>it's not sustainable and not something the projection system likes

0:35:54.080 --> 0:35:56.160
<v Speaker 2>to see. So that's that's why they're ready to low.

0:35:56.200 --> 0:35:59.240
<v Speaker 2>But again, you know, I don't think any any Bengal

0:35:59.280 --> 0:36:02.680
<v Speaker 2>fans taking the Steelers and looking at them and scalping

0:36:02.680 --> 0:36:04.680
<v Speaker 2>and not worrying when we play them, that's for sure.

0:36:05.760 --> 0:36:08.640
<v Speaker 1>We have about three minutes left in our zoom call

0:36:09.239 --> 0:36:12.440
<v Speaker 1>time for one more topic. I was excited to see

0:36:12.480 --> 0:36:15.920
<v Speaker 1>the latest two entries in the NYC one thousand in

0:36:15.960 --> 0:36:19.319
<v Speaker 1>my inbox today. For those who are not familiar with

0:36:19.400 --> 0:36:24.160
<v Speaker 1>this incredible project that you have undertaken, explain the NYC

0:36:24.280 --> 0:36:24.960
<v Speaker 1>one thousand.

0:36:25.800 --> 0:36:27.799
<v Speaker 2>It's hard to believe I'm still alive, but I am,

0:36:28.080 --> 0:36:31.239
<v Speaker 2>and about two hundred entries into it, we're getting down

0:36:31.280 --> 0:36:34.040
<v Speaker 2>totter number eight hundred. Now I am counting down ranking

0:36:34.120 --> 0:36:37.880
<v Speaker 2>the top one thousand sporting events in New York City history.

0:36:37.920 --> 0:36:40.960
<v Speaker 2>I am in New Yorker. You are too, although you're

0:36:41.000 --> 0:36:44.839
<v Speaker 2>more state than city. But yes, it's kind of a

0:36:44.880 --> 0:36:47.120
<v Speaker 2>side project that I do on my sub stack, the

0:36:47.280 --> 0:36:51.040
<v Speaker 2>NYC one thousand. Just google that or winehrap r dot

0:36:51.080 --> 0:36:55.160
<v Speaker 2>substack dot com and you can see where I've gone through.

0:36:55.239 --> 0:36:58.040
<v Speaker 2>The conceit is. It has to have happened in New

0:36:58.120 --> 0:37:01.000
<v Speaker 2>York proper, the footprint there, So you know, a Super

0:37:01.040 --> 0:37:03.560
<v Speaker 2>Bowl that the Giants played in Miami does not count

0:37:03.680 --> 0:37:05.520
<v Speaker 2>as long as that happened in New York. And of

0:37:05.560 --> 0:37:09.600
<v Speaker 2>course that goes through you know, over a century and

0:37:09.600 --> 0:37:12.520
<v Speaker 2>a half now almost of not just sporting events, but

0:37:12.800 --> 0:37:15.280
<v Speaker 2>really the history of New York, the history of the country.

0:37:15.719 --> 0:37:19.440
<v Speaker 2>So much has happened there that relates to how, you know,

0:37:19.520 --> 0:37:22.320
<v Speaker 2>sports and the culture have really grown together. It's really

0:37:22.320 --> 0:37:24.319
<v Speaker 2>interesting to see when you go back and look at

0:37:24.360 --> 0:37:27.880
<v Speaker 2>things like a match from the eighties between Martine and

0:37:27.920 --> 0:37:32.400
<v Speaker 2>Navatarova and Steppie Garoff, how enormous and how epical that

0:37:32.480 --> 0:37:36.000
<v Speaker 2>seemed to the time, and yet you know now it's like, oh, yeah,

0:37:36.040 --> 0:37:38.600
<v Speaker 2>we've moved on. Who were those two? You know? But

0:37:38.760 --> 0:37:40.719
<v Speaker 2>I like to relive the fact that these were two

0:37:40.840 --> 0:37:44.480
<v Speaker 2>enormous sporting figures. And obviously that doesn't even take into

0:37:44.480 --> 0:37:47.920
<v Speaker 2>account all the great athletes and all the great sporting events,

0:37:48.000 --> 0:37:50.439
<v Speaker 2>not to mention teams that have taken place in New York,

0:37:51.280 --> 0:37:54.360
<v Speaker 2>really the heart of the sporting city and the cultural

0:37:54.360 --> 0:37:57.120
<v Speaker 2>capital of the world, one would argue. So anyway, that's

0:37:57.160 --> 0:37:59.000
<v Speaker 2>what I've been doing on the side for the last

0:37:59.040 --> 0:38:01.680
<v Speaker 2>couple of years, and keep on keeping on until we

0:38:01.719 --> 0:38:04.399
<v Speaker 2>get to number one. Hopefully I'll still be alive. This

0:38:04.520 --> 0:38:07.759
<v Speaker 2>project won't kill me or other outside forces will keep

0:38:07.800 --> 0:38:09.960
<v Speaker 2>me going, and we'll find the countdown, and then I'll

0:38:10.000 --> 0:38:12.200
<v Speaker 2>start in on the Cincinnati two to fifty or whatever

0:38:12.200 --> 0:38:14.560
<v Speaker 2>you think the proper number is, Dan, and we'll go

0:38:14.600 --> 0:38:15.000
<v Speaker 2>from there.

0:38:15.400 --> 0:38:18.000
<v Speaker 1>I love it well. You mentioned Martine and Stephanie. They

0:38:18.080 --> 0:38:21.520
<v Speaker 1>are the subject of the most recent entry, number eight thirteen.

0:38:22.239 --> 0:38:24.520
<v Speaker 1>You're writing about their match in nineteen eighty six was

0:38:24.600 --> 0:38:27.000
<v Speaker 1>so entertaining that I watched a chunk of the match

0:38:27.080 --> 0:38:29.879
<v Speaker 1>on YouTube. So you do a great job with the

0:38:30.000 --> 0:38:34.600
<v Speaker 1>NYC one thousand and for the FTN Football Almanac, the

0:38:34.600 --> 0:38:38.399
<v Speaker 1>Bengals chapter is great. Robert, always appreciate your time. Thanks

0:38:38.440 --> 0:38:40.560
<v Speaker 1>so much for joining us, and keep up the great work.

0:38:41.000 --> 0:38:43.359
<v Speaker 2>Thanks so much, Dan, The pleasure is always mine.

0:38:44.040 --> 0:38:45.880
<v Speaker 1>You don't have to be a New Yorker to enjoy

0:38:45.960 --> 0:38:49.600
<v Speaker 1>Robert's list of the top one thousand sporting events in

0:38:49.640 --> 0:38:52.959
<v Speaker 1>the New York City area. Is writing is the fun part.

0:38:53.400 --> 0:38:56.600
<v Speaker 1>If you're interested in checking it out, just search for

0:38:57.000 --> 0:39:01.960
<v Speaker 1>NYC one thousand sub stack. That's going to do it

0:39:02.000 --> 0:39:04.279
<v Speaker 1>for this episode of the Bengals Booth podcast, brought to

0:39:04.280 --> 0:39:06.840
<v Speaker 1>you by pay Core, Proud to be the Bengals official

0:39:07.400 --> 0:39:11.640
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0:39:11.640 --> 0:39:14.239
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0:39:14.280 --> 0:39:17.879
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0:39:17.920 --> 0:39:21.320
<v Speaker 1>the best fans. Kettering Health is the official healthcare provider

0:39:21.600 --> 0:39:24.640
<v Speaker 1>of the Bengals. If you haven't done so already, please

0:39:24.680 --> 0:39:27.120
<v Speaker 1>subscribe to this podcast and if you have a minute,

0:39:27.120 --> 0:39:30.120
<v Speaker 1>give it a rating or share a comment that helps

0:39:30.239 --> 0:39:34.200
<v Speaker 1>more Bengals fans find us. I'm Dan Hord and thanks

0:39:34.200 --> 0:39:37.200
<v Speaker 1>for listening to the Bengals Booth podcast.