Speaker 1: Hi, get everybody. I'm Dan Horde and thanks for downloading
Speaker 1: the Bengals Booth Podcast. The There's just no telling how
Speaker 1: far I'll go. Addition, as we look ahead to the
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four season with Robert Weintraub, who writes about
Speaker 1: the Bengals for the FTN Football Almanac and Cincinnati Magazine
Speaker 1: dot com. The Bengals Booth Podcast is brought to you
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Speaker 1: Now here's a quick reminder that you can have the
Speaker 1: latest edition of this podcast delivered right to your phone, tablet,
Speaker 1: or computer by subscribing wherever you get your podcasts. It's
Speaker 1: the greatest thing since the Cincinnati Three Way. No, this
Speaker 1: is not a reference to Skyline Chile. The three Way
Speaker 1: in this case is the trio of Joe Burrow, Red
Speaker 1: shortstop Eli de la Cruz and FC Cincinnati midfielder Lucco Acosta.
Speaker 1: Does any city have a more fun and charismatic trio
Speaker 1: of sports stars in different sports than Cincinnati. De la
Speaker 1: Cruz is an All Star at twenty two years old
Speaker 1: and on a pace to have twenty six homers in
Speaker 1: seventy eight stolen bases this season. Acosta is the reigning
Speaker 1: MLS MVP and currently has five more assists than anybody
Speaker 1: else in the league. Leonel Messi ranked second, and the
Speaker 1: last three times Joe Burrow has finished a season healthy,
Speaker 1: he's won a college national championship, gone to the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: and made it to the AFC Championship Game. They say
Speaker 1: that good things come in threes, and I can't think
Speaker 1: of another city with a better trio of must see
Speaker 1: sports stars. Now time for this week's guest. The ft
Speaker 1: On Football Almanac, formerly known as the Football Outsiders Almanac,
Speaker 1: came out this week and if you're thinking about buying
Speaker 1: one preseason guide to the NFL, this is the one
Speaker 1: to get. There are a lot of stats in advanced
Speaker 1: data in the book if that's your thing, but I
Speaker 1: mostly enjoy it for the writing. The Almanac is not
Speaker 1: only informative, it's very entertaining. There's an in depth look
Speaker 1: at every NFL team and the Cincinnati chapter was written
Speaker 1: by my friend Robert Weintraup, who also writes about the
Speaker 1: Bengals on a regular basis for Cincinnati Magazine dot com. Robert,
Speaker 1: I want to start with a sentence in your season
Speaker 1: preview that sounds a little ominous for Bengals fans.
Speaker 2: Here's the quote.
Speaker 1: The team is poised for one more championship run before
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow's massive contract extension fully kicks in in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five. Do you view this as something of a
Speaker 1: make or break year?
Speaker 2: Make or break is awfully strong, you know, especially in Cincinnati.
Speaker 2: I know they don't ever look at, you know, their
Speaker 2: team that way. It's always with a big picture, and
Speaker 2: certainly fans don't want to think of it that way
Speaker 2: in terms of, hey, we got to be here next year.
Speaker 2: What's going to happen if they don't win the Super Bowl?
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow's gonna be traded, you know. I mean Jamar
Speaker 2: Chay He's going to go into his fashion career and
Speaker 2: Jamar Chase will be alongside him wherever he goes. And
Speaker 2: Perry or Milan or whatever. I don't think so, And
Speaker 2: it's not really so much that state of mind as
Speaker 2: much as it just is. As we all know, Burrow's
Speaker 2: contract extension really kicks in starting next season goes I
Speaker 2: thinking cap percentage somewhere along the lines of from you know,
Speaker 2: twelve percent to seventeen percent going from next year to
Speaker 2: this year. And last year was only around eight so
Speaker 2: you know, obviously the cap goes up. Things change. We
Speaker 2: don't have to worry too much about that. But I
Speaker 2: definitely think there's a sense that the time is not
Speaker 2: you know, I think there was that sense last year too,
Speaker 2: and obviously it got you know, Pig Skinnis interrupt this
Speaker 2: as I call it in the in the almanac this
Speaker 2: year because of the fact that Burrow was hurt and
Speaker 2: they had some problems, but mainly it was because of
Speaker 2: the fact we didn't get to see Joe at his
Speaker 2: full you know, greatness is I like to always point
Speaker 2: out with you, and you know, now is a season
Speaker 2: where he can pick up where he left off before
Speaker 2: he got injured for good last year. And I think
Speaker 2: we're seeing, you know, the team realize that with t
Speaker 2: Higgins one more run, maybe you know some other players
Speaker 2: who we don't know about just yet, but you know,
Speaker 2: I think it's really more of the fact that they've
Speaker 2: drafted now, you know, so heavily on defense. In the
Speaker 2: last three years of their ten premium picks, eight have
Speaker 2: been on defense. It's it's almost like a combination of
Speaker 2: a make or break and a transition year. It's time
Speaker 2: for those guys to kind of step forward and become
Speaker 2: the new core of the defense. The new core of
Speaker 2: the team really let the team win in somewhat different ways,
Speaker 2: rather than relying on the burrow and the passing attack
Speaker 2: all the time. Do kind of what Kansas City has
Speaker 2: proven they've been able to do over the last couple
Speaker 2: of years. They re energized and reignited their defense with
Speaker 2: great drafting and didn't have to rely on Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 2: quite so much until the time came, you know, in
Speaker 2: the postseason when his greatness shown. I think that's a
Speaker 2: plan and a method of attack for the Bengals probably
Speaker 2: would want to use in the end too, win in
Speaker 2: a lot of different ways. And then when they have
Speaker 2: to have Joe come through, we know he's capable of
Speaker 2: doing so.
Speaker 1: All right, So, as you pointed out, t Higgins is
Speaker 1: the most obvious star who could be gone at the
Speaker 1: end of the year. The market for Tea I think
Speaker 1: has been established by some of the other contracts that
Speaker 1: are out there. It's probably around twenty three million dollars
Speaker 1: a year. Jamar Chase is going to get Justin Jefferson's
Speaker 1: money roughly thirty five million dollars a year. So, in
Speaker 1: your opinion, should they try to keep both of those
Speaker 1: guys at those prices or they are are they better
Speaker 1: off spending he's approximately twenty three mili on other positions?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Well, I mean I think that decision's pretty much
Speaker 2: been made really that they're not going to resign Tee
Speaker 2: barring you know, unforeseen circumstances happening. You never really know.
Speaker 2: I mean, God forbid, Chase could get hurt and they
Speaker 2: feel like they need Higgins or me to you know,
Speaker 2: they can franchise tag him again for another year, potentially
Speaker 2: next year. So you know, nothing is obviously written in concrete.
Speaker 2: But I think the overall vibe is a you can't
Speaker 2: pay two receivers enormous money, or if you can, you're
Speaker 2: really hamstringing your team in other areas, especially if you're
Speaker 2: also paying the quarterback huge money. That's that's now you're
Speaker 2: talking about an enormous percentage of your cap tied up
Speaker 2: in just three guys, and we've seen, especially with t
Speaker 2: you know, injuries are going to you know, play a
Speaker 2: major factor. As part of the reason why his you know,
Speaker 2: sort of contract projection as you put it, around twenty
Speaker 2: three million ish is so low is mainly because he
Speaker 2: hasn't been able to stay on the field over the
Speaker 2: last year a year and a half. So, you know,
Speaker 2: I think they think to themselves wide receivers are much
Speaker 2: more replaceable than some other positions. We've seen that all
Speaker 2: through the league. It's not really a reflection on TEA.
Speaker 2: Kind of reminds me of where Aj Green was a
Speaker 2: little bit in his first year with Burrow, Burrow's rookie year. Obviously,
Speaker 2: he and Green and t Higgins are different places in
Speaker 2: their respective careers, but it was sort of the same
Speaker 2: can you stay healthy? Are you worthy of a bigger
Speaker 2: contract right now? Where are you? He's sort of caught
Speaker 2: in between. It's in his best interest to have a
Speaker 2: big season this year. Obviously, that would help him in
Speaker 2: the market, it would help the Bengals greatly obviously, and
Speaker 2: it might rethink and recalibrate the Bengals thinking too. But
Speaker 2: I think overall, they're probably more inclined to spend the
Speaker 2: money elsewhere, you know, eventually replace at other positions of need,
Speaker 2: which are going to have to do and spend more
Speaker 2: money to do so. And you know that's where a
Speaker 2: guy like Jermaine Burton, who they were happy to get
Speaker 2: in the third round this year, players are going to
Speaker 2: have an important role this season already as to show
Speaker 2: themselves worthy of being replacements for Higgins. And if that's
Speaker 2: the case, then you know everybody will shake hands and
Speaker 2: move on. But I do think in their minds it's
Speaker 2: certainly leaning towards this is Te's final year in Cincinnati.
Speaker 1: A perfect segue to asking you about the draft, because
Speaker 1: you read about this year's draft class for Cincinnati Magazine
Speaker 1: and called the picks solid but slightly risky in your view,
Speaker 1: was this the time to take big swings on players
Speaker 1: like Jermaine Burton, who had some maturity concerns and first
Speaker 1: round pick Marius Mims, who had some injury issues.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you know, we say is at the time.
Speaker 2: It's sort of like if a guy who you think
Speaker 2: is as quality and as high level of potential as
Speaker 2: Amarius Mims is available to you where he was in
Speaker 2: the draft, you know, and there's always a good time
Speaker 2: to do that. You know, it remains to be seen
Speaker 2: whether their evaluation is correct, but there's no question that
Speaker 2: he has the sort of pedigree and talent and overall
Speaker 2: physical presence that was worthy of a top ten pick,
Speaker 2: and they obviously got a much later than that, So
Speaker 2: you know, there's never a wrong time to do that theoretically.
Speaker 2: I mean, if they had been picking in the top
Speaker 2: ten and had their choice, would they have picked a
Speaker 2: quote unquote safer guy there? Maybe, But you know, I
Speaker 2: think it's he was obviously the pick where they got him,
Speaker 2: and I don't think they thought of it as a
Speaker 2: particularly big risk. You know, we just look at it
Speaker 2: from a sort of background point of view. He had
Speaker 2: some injury problems at Georgie, didn't get a lot of
Speaker 2: playing time, so he's not the finished product. But you
Speaker 2: can't argue with his prospect. He's as high graded prospect
Speaker 2: as they've drafted on the offensive line in some time,
Speaker 2: really so. And in terms of Burton, again, they were
Speaker 2: very comfortable with taking him where they did. Clearly I
Speaker 2: think they thought about taking him earlier than that. I
Speaker 2: think TJ. Houschmanzata was in their ears, saying take this guy,
Speaker 2: and they listened to TJ and how could you not?
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, Who'sh's Who'sh's magic when it comes
Speaker 2: to that kind of stuff. And again, you know, they
Speaker 2: need a player of his caliber to step forward if
Speaker 2: they are going to replace t. Higgins next year and
Speaker 2: they need a you know, ideally a first round level player,
Speaker 2: and if they can get him in the third round,
Speaker 2: then yeah, that was that was turned into a great pick.
Speaker 2: Whether it happens or not remains to be seen obviously,
Speaker 2: but you know there's no oh, you know, we had
Speaker 2: to play it safe this year because of Burrows contract
Speaker 2: kicking in or anything like that. I think the two
Speaker 2: are pretty mutually independent. You take the prospect, the best
Speaker 2: one where you can get him, and how he fits
Speaker 2: into your team, and looking ahead for this year and
Speaker 2: next in the year after potentially without thinking to yourself, oh,
Speaker 2: like you know, oh, with this big year for us
Speaker 2: in terms of getting to the super Bowl, we got
Speaker 2: to take our big swings on uh, you know, boomer
Speaker 2: Bus dish products. You know, for the most part, everybody
Speaker 2: is a boomer Bus prospect. Really, I mean there's only
Speaker 2: a handful of guys you know are going to be
Speaker 2: really good players, like Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow. Everybody
Speaker 2: else you crossing your fingers a little bit, so I
Speaker 2: don't even really look at it that way. I thought
Speaker 2: they did a good job getting those guys where they did,
Speaker 2: and now you just hope that they can contribute, and
Speaker 2: the earlier the better.
Speaker 1: Robert Weintraub is our guest. He writes about the Bengals
Speaker 1: for Cincinnati Magazine, and he has written the Bengals chapter
Speaker 1: and this year's FTN Football Almanac. The almanac projects win
Speaker 1: totals for every NFL team. The Bengals check in at
Speaker 1: nine point eight with a sixty percent chance of making
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Can you give us a reader's digest version
Speaker 1: of how that's calculated and what it means?
Speaker 2: Well, as I have told you in the past, we
Speaker 2: play out the season and it's your favorite number one
Speaker 2: million times through with the doctor evil impressions in that sense.
Speaker 2: But yes, we played the season out humongous number of times,
Speaker 2: and that just counts for every potential variable, and you know,
Speaker 2: the better teams win more off in in that giant
Speaker 2: sample size. It's basically the way to look at it
Speaker 2: in terms of the nine point eight number. That doesn't
Speaker 2: mean they're going to go ten and seven, you know, definitively,
Speaker 2: or nine to eight, however you want to look at it.
Speaker 2: It just gives you sort of a baseline approach to
Speaker 2: how good they are. And you know, the real place
Speaker 2: to look is in the margins in terms of percentages
Speaker 2: of their seasons. You know, the Bengals for a long
Speaker 2: time kind of were more likely than not to win
Speaker 2: fewer than nine games, or really fewer than five games,
Speaker 2: and not really win twelve or more, which makes them
Speaker 2: what we call a super Bowl contender. This year, you know,
Speaker 2: twenty five percent of those seasons they win twelve plus games,
Speaker 2: putting them right into the super Bowl mix. Only I
Speaker 2: think four percent of the seasons that they win five
Speaker 2: or fewer games, which puts them near to the top
Speaker 2: of the draft. And you saw last year, you know,
Speaker 2: we I think had the same conversation and I said,
Speaker 2: sort of idly, the only way that was going to
Speaker 2: happen where they finished at the top of the draft
Speaker 2: would be a Joe Burrow injury. Sure enough, Joe Burrow
Speaker 2: was her and they still won nine games, So I
Speaker 2: should tell you the level of the team is obviously
Speaker 2: much higher than just dependent on one player. They have
Speaker 2: a you know, a very good chance of being in
Speaker 2: the mix for the Super Bowl. Whether or not they
Speaker 2: win the division, whether or not they win nine games,
Speaker 2: ten games, eleven games sort of not really important from
Speaker 2: the way we look at it in terms of those numbers.
Speaker 2: What is important is there a top flight contender in
Speaker 2: the AFC, and you know, barring again more injuries, it's
Speaker 2: a key players at key times. Really they should be
Speaker 2: right there in the mix.
Speaker 1: The schedule could help them exceed nine point eight wins.
Speaker 1: The Almanac raided the Bengals schedule last year among the
Speaker 1: toughest in the publication's twenty year history. What do the
Speaker 1: numbers tell us this year, at least going into the season.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I always have to remember, of course, it's a
Speaker 2: projection and anything can happen, as we saw last year. Yeah,
Speaker 2: they had the eighth hardiest schedule of all time by
Speaker 2: our numbers, in terms of when we've been doing it
Speaker 2: since I think we recalculated all the way back to
Speaker 2: the nineties now, so you know, it's a long time
Speaker 2: to have the eighth hardest schedule and that was because
Speaker 2: of obviously the division was extremely difficult, plus the first
Speaker 2: place schedule came around, had a lot of tough games,
Speaker 2: and the Bengals actually had a top twelve ranking in
Speaker 2: terms of our efficiency which is adjusted by opponents and
Speaker 2: the you know, their overall efficiency just as a baseline
Speaker 2: was a little bit above average, but then when it
Speaker 2: was adjusted because of their difficult schedule, it got much higher.
Speaker 2: And you know, we do the same thing as a
Speaker 2: projection for coming up this year with the last place
Speaker 2: schedule and the rotation and just in terms of you know,
Speaker 2: sort of the movement around the league, we project them
Speaker 2: as having the twenty seventh hardest schedule in the league. Now,
Speaker 2: again that doesn't mean necessarily anything. Teams rise and fall
Speaker 2: the time. Look at the Houston Texans, everybody thought, y, oh,
Speaker 2: that's the automatic w last year, and of course they
Speaker 2: turned out to be a really good team. And you know,
Speaker 2: that's written the same way throughout the week, but it
Speaker 2: is a sort of baseline to look at and think, Okay,
Speaker 2: they have a much better shot at least of having
Speaker 2: a few breathers in the schedule where they didn't have
Speaker 2: last year. And obviously that was compounded by the fact
Speaker 2: that they were playing without Burrow for a lot of
Speaker 2: those games, et cetera. And the fact that Jake Browning
Speaker 2: did so well when he took over really helped their
Speaker 2: overall numbers in terms of efficiency and kind of helped
Speaker 2: their projection going forward this year. So that's a big
Speaker 2: part of it too. So kudos to Jake. I don't
Speaker 2: want to leave him out of this discussion to make
Speaker 2: it about Joe, but yeah, the schedule definitely on paper
Speaker 2: at least lightens up quite a bit, so hopefully that'll
Speaker 2: have a nice effect on the season overall.
Speaker 1: How did Browning compare to Burrow? Keeping in mind last
Speaker 1: year that in the first four weeks of the season
Speaker 1: Burrow wasn't Burrow. It was just the five game stretch
Speaker 1: after that where he performed as were accustomed to seeing
Speaker 1: him perform.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you know, we didn't necessarily the numbers
Speaker 2: don't take that into account. The fans do. We all
Speaker 2: saw it. He was not He was a shadow of Burrow.
Speaker 2: He wasn't the real Joe. I like to say so
Speaker 2: in that sense, you have to take the numbers with
Speaker 2: the grand salt. But the good numbers are the Jake
Speaker 2: Browning performed exceptionally well on a lot of advanced metrics
Speaker 2: and really kind of surprising to me that no team
Speaker 2: pushed harder to try and try him loose from Cincinnati.
Speaker 2: I thought that, you know, a guy, granted small sample size,
Speaker 2: but we've seen it before, backup quarterbacks come in and
Speaker 2: have a good half and all of a sudden their
Speaker 2: desired commodities around the league, and that didn't happen so
Speaker 2: much with Browning. Whether or not he just put it
Speaker 2: out there that he wanted to stay in Cincinnati and
Speaker 2: that was it, or there were other behind the scenes
Speaker 2: machinations I couldn't tell you, but you know, he obviously
Speaker 2: gives the Bengals a backup that they haven't had quality
Speaker 2: backup they haven't had in the Borough era or even
Speaker 2: you know, going back to John Kitnap maybe. So I mean,
Speaker 2: that's great to have. As we've seen around the league
Speaker 2: and not just in Cincinnati, having a second quarterback rather
Speaker 2: than a backup quarterback is very important. I live in
Speaker 2: Atlanta and they put their entire drefts around that as
Speaker 2: we sell, so you know, it's it's a good thing
Speaker 2: to have. And he was very, very strong in our
Speaker 2: numbers Browning last year and above Burrow in certain areas
Speaker 2: as well. Again you know with the caveat that Burrow
Speaker 2: was only Burrow for about a month month and change
Speaker 2: last season.
Speaker 1: All right, Robert, what are your biggest concerns and or
Speaker 1: question marks going into this season?
Speaker 2: Well, I think it's the same as we were having
Speaker 2: last season, which was the defense has to step up.
Speaker 2: And again it goes back to those rookies and the
Speaker 2: younger players now that I've talked about, you know, stepping
Speaker 2: forward and becoming key members of the team. You know,
Speaker 2: it's sort of Bengals defense last year in particular, was
Speaker 2: unless Trey Hendrickson gets a pass rush, you know, they're
Speaker 2: getting gas for huge yardage, whether it's on the ground
Speaker 2: or through the year. Uh, you know, the Bengals had
Speaker 2: the biggest difference in terms of our numbers when from
Speaker 2: between when they got pass pressure on a quarterback and
Speaker 2: between when they did not. In other words, if Henry
Speaker 2: Soon got a rush in or you know, one of
Speaker 2: the other guys less often, but mainly Hendrickson when he
Speaker 2: was around the quarterback, the defense was good. When he
Speaker 2: was not around the quarterback, it was good news for
Speaker 2: the offense, and they moved the ball pretty much at will.
Speaker 2: Bengals were really near the bottom and forcing three and out.
Speaker 2: They were terrible in terms of outside the perimeter coverage.
Speaker 2: Teams threw deep on him. They were terrible in terms
Speaker 2: of tackling. I think they went from seventy six miss
Speaker 2: tackles in twenty twenty two to one hundred and twenty
Speaker 2: four last season. That's a pretty sizeable leap. Jermaine Pratt
Speaker 2: just not to single him out, because it was a
Speaker 2: team wide breakdown. It takes a village to be defense
Speaker 2: that bad. But Pratt went from six miss tackles in
Speaker 2: an outstanding twenty twenty two last year, he missed seventeen.
Speaker 2: And I think we can all agree him and Logan
Speaker 2: Wilson took a bit of a step back last year.
Speaker 2: And the linebackers are a key element in your team
Speaker 2: sort of overall run defense and speed vibe, and the
Speaker 2: way they played in twenty two is a big reason
Speaker 2: the defense was good. Obviously, they played without you know,
Speaker 2: their starting safeties from twenty two last year. That's a
Speaker 2: concern whether or not Geno Stone can lock down that
Speaker 2: deep third of the field and whether or not the
Speaker 2: young corners can step up. Does Dax Hill have a role?
Speaker 2: There's a lot of question marks around the team. Miles Murphy,
Speaker 2: how does he fit in? Do we, you know, get
Speaker 2: a real first round production out of him, even though
Speaker 2: he's not going to get necessarily the playing time that
Speaker 2: you would imagine for a guy picked in the first
Speaker 2: round because of Sam Hubbard and Hendrickson's presence. So a
Speaker 2: lot of question marks. They have talent, though, I mean,
Speaker 2: and that's key, and they haven't established defensive coordinator who
Speaker 2: can make the most out of that talent. Who's probably
Speaker 2: I would imagine lou Anrumo anxious to put twenty twenty
Speaker 2: three behind him, get the team back to tackling the
Speaker 2: way they were the year before, and really just that.
Speaker 2: I mean, if you can improve those tackling numbers even
Speaker 2: by half, you know that puts you much closer to
Speaker 2: the base one of the league, and your team looks
Speaker 2: a whole lot better. You get off the field on
Speaker 2: third a lot more, and you know you're you're not
Speaker 2: always playing behind the eight ball and worrying about the
Speaker 2: other team running the ball down in your throat. That
Speaker 2: was a big problem last year. We'll see if Chris
Speaker 2: Jenkins helps out at all. We'll see how Sheldon Rankins
Speaker 2: helps out. Losing DJ Reader was a problem. But you know,
Speaker 2: it's not like Sheldon Rankins is not a good run defender.
Speaker 2: He's a very good run defender. He had basically the
Speaker 2: same run stopping numbers in our stats as Reader. There
Speaker 2: are different players, and Reader is more of a you know,
Speaker 2: giant in the middle who just gums up everything, whereas
Speaker 2: Rankings actually goes and makes the tackle. But you know
Speaker 2: he can play very good run defense when asked. So
Speaker 2: I'm you know, I'm anxious to see how that works out,
Speaker 2: how the overall run defense steps up after a disastrous
Speaker 2: twenty twenty three and if they can make those changes.
Speaker 2: You know this, this guy's the limit for this defense.
Speaker 2: They've played really well in the past. It's just a
Speaker 2: question of getting back to that level.
Speaker 1: Or with Robert in a moment. But first, a quick
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Speaker 1: I want to follow up on Trey Hendrickson. Miles Garrett
Speaker 1: was the NFL defensive Player of the year.
Speaker 2: TJ.
Speaker 1: Watt finished second. You point out in the Almanac this
Speaker 1: year that Trey Hendrickson had more pressures than either of
Speaker 1: those guys, which I wasn't aware of. Just how good
Speaker 1: is Trey Hendrickson.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you will get his numbers, not just last year,
Speaker 2: but over the last three years, even basically since Trey
Speaker 2: became Trey in Cincinnati, his numbers are right there with
Speaker 2: Garrett and TJ. Watt a little bit be slightly behind,
Speaker 2: a half step behind, but you know, certainly not to
Speaker 2: the point where as I say in the Almanac, you know,
Speaker 2: he has basically one one hundredth of the sort of
Speaker 2: national Q rating if you of Garrett and Watt. Now,
Speaker 2: part of that is because Garrett and would have made
Speaker 2: sort of splash gear plays. They have more turnovers. Garrett
Speaker 2: obviously is a one man wrecking crew. We've seen it
Speaker 2: first hand all these years. It's terrible lot to Hendrickson.
Speaker 2: Slightly behind maybe in that respect respect, but he's been
Speaker 2: outstanding in terms of generating pressure on quarterbacks, and as
Speaker 2: I alluded to before, he's basically the one man who
Speaker 2: sort of sets the tone for the Bengals defense. If
Speaker 2: he's around the quarterback, the Bengals defense looks a heck
Speaker 2: of a lot better. And when he's not on the field,
Speaker 2: you really notice it. So it's a big problem that
Speaker 2: they haven't really been able to generate rush outside of
Speaker 2: him for the most part, and his presence on the
Speaker 2: field a lot is key, and I think that you know,
Speaker 2: he has to play a few more snaps probably than
Speaker 2: is maybe warranted for his advancing years, and just in
Speaker 2: general at the length of the season, you'd like to
Speaker 2: get that third pass rusher, which is why Murphy again
Speaker 2: is so key, I think for this season to get
Speaker 2: another player at least in the stratosphere of Hendrickson's ability
Speaker 2: to get near the quarterback. And as for you know,
Speaker 2: just in terms of why he doesn't get the you know,
Speaker 2: same pub as a Garrett or what part of it
Speaker 2: is because they're they're the Bengals and not the Browns
Speaker 2: and the Steelers who have you know, the huge national
Speaker 2: followings and certainly the Steelers, and you know, his personality
Speaker 2: is not just what the other two guys are. Perhaps
Speaker 2: it's hard to really know for sure. The Bengals generally
Speaker 2: don't get those kind of, you know, sort of national
Speaker 2: love as other teams players do necessarily I'm here stumping
Speaker 2: for you, Trey, though I think you should. And he
Speaker 2: talk about great pass rushers. Pass rushers excuse me in
Speaker 2: the league really has to include Hendrickson because he's right
Speaker 2: up there and at the top. You know, more than
Speaker 2: just one year now, it's been a it's been a
Speaker 2: large sample size.
Speaker 1: Robert Weintraub is our guest. He wrote the Bengals chapter
Speaker 1: in the FTN Football Almanac this year. There's some interesting
Speaker 1: data in the almanac about the age where players traditionally
Speaker 1: decline at each position, so it breaks it down by position,
Speaker 1: and for running backs, the age is twenty eight. Joe
Speaker 1: Mixons about to turn twenty eight. Did the Bengals act
Speaker 1: at the right time?
Speaker 2: You know, it's amazing how the narrative has changed, because
Speaker 2: at this time two years ago, we were talking about
Speaker 2: is it time to move on from Joe Mixon. Feels
Speaker 2: like we've had this discussion for a while, and then
Speaker 2: they signed him and he played well, and then of
Speaker 2: course last year he took a pay cut to stay,
Speaker 2: and it was sort of a surprise that he did,
Speaker 2: and he responded with an excellent season. I have no
Speaker 2: doubt that he has football left in the tank, and
Speaker 2: we all love Joe, but that doesn't mean the time
Speaker 2: wasn't right for him to go. He certainly is not
Speaker 2: an explosive back, and they were looking to up their
Speaker 2: explosiveness out of the backfield. I think there's no question
Speaker 2: about that. I don't know if it was necessarily just
Speaker 2: because he's turning twenty eight. I think in a couple
Speaker 2: of places they did what I call doing the Belichick,
Speaker 2: which is you get rid of a guy maybe a
Speaker 2: year earlier rather than a year too late. I think
Speaker 2: you saw that with DJ Reader. Really that was a
Speaker 2: you know, sort of a fifty to fifty on defense decision,
Speaker 2: and sometimes it's better just to pull the cord. Now
Speaker 2: with Mixing, I think, you know, the handwriting was on
Speaker 2: the wall last year and it was sort of, you know,
Speaker 2: surprised that he came back and played so well and
Speaker 2: he had an excellent season. Finally catching the ball on
Speaker 2: the backfield they used them the way we'd been us
Speaker 2: analyst types had been begging for the team to use
Speaker 2: him all these years, and he had an outstanding season
Speaker 2: catching the ball. The good news is Zach Moss, his
Speaker 2: nominal replacement, at least partially, had a very good season
Speaker 2: also catching the football, and we saw what Chase Brown
Speaker 2: can do in his limited snaps as a receiver. They
Speaker 2: should be able to make that happen. It still feels
Speaker 2: to me like the Bengals are a little light in
Speaker 2: the running back room, and I mean that in a
Speaker 2: literal way. They could use sort of the extra poundage
Speaker 2: that they lose with mixing at twenty five. They don't
Speaker 2: really have a running back of that size or you know,
Speaker 2: Moss three for eleven inside the five yard line last
Speaker 2: year in terms of punching it into the end zone.
Speaker 2: Chase Brown no real history of that, but doesn't seem
Speaker 2: like that kind of running back necessarily. You'd like to
Speaker 2: have a guy, as they were talking about last year,
Speaker 2: perhaps getting in Jamal Williams type frame back there and
Speaker 2: if he's cut, maybe he's available, or you know, a
Speaker 2: guy in the street, even like Kareem Hunt, who you know,
Speaker 2: we don't think of as having much left, but he
Speaker 2: was outstanding in short yardage situations last year, and we
Speaker 2: know he can catch the football. Well, somebody like that
Speaker 2: just who you know isn't going to get a lion's
Speaker 2: share of the carries, obviously, but somebody who can improve
Speaker 2: your depth and in those specific short yardage situations where
Speaker 2: the Bengals were terrible last year in part because of
Speaker 2: the offensive line but also because of running back situations.
Speaker 2: I think they'd be well behooved to add to their mix.
Speaker 2: And I think, you know, a three headed monster is
Speaker 2: better than a two headed monster in this scenario.
Speaker 1: Maybe some I JP Ryan gets cut.
Speaker 2: That's possible. I mean, certainly he would be welcomed back
Speaker 2: with open arms. I tend to doubt it, just because
Speaker 2: he's such a good, heady player, a safety valve, very
Speaker 2: good receiver. We know he's good in pass protection. And
Speaker 2: then you have a rookie quarterback now in Denver. Presumably
Speaker 2: that's kind of a guy you'd like to have around
Speaker 2: a rookie and you know, just be a security blanket
Speaker 2: of the backfield. So I'd be surprised, But stranger things
Speaker 2: have happened, and I'm sure that the Bengals will be
Speaker 2: circling around all the cuts who who you know, code
Speaker 2: down to the wire there and probably almost certainly will
Speaker 2: sign somebody else you know going forward.
Speaker 1: I also just want to clarify that doing the Belichick
Speaker 1: does not refer to dating a much younger woman.
Speaker 2: If you're correct, and you know, it doesn't mean that
Speaker 2: you appear at a roast all of a sudden for
Speaker 2: your ex quarterback and deal a sense of humor that
Speaker 2: you've had apparently tucked away for lo these many years.
Speaker 2: But there's many definitions of doing the Belichick. I chose
Speaker 2: the on field and the front office one, no question.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about some of the other teams
Speaker 1: in the division. Baltimore is projected to win eleven point
Speaker 1: two games, Number one in the AFC, number two in
Speaker 1: the NFL behind San Francisco. I think the Ravens lost
Speaker 1: more good players and coaching talent than any other team
Speaker 1: in the NFL, But it doesn't seem to have had
Speaker 1: much impact on the FTN Football Almanac forecast.
Speaker 2: Why not, Well, mainly because they were coming from such
Speaker 2: a high place to begin with. It's sort of like,
Speaker 2: you know, if you're on top of the Empire State
Speaker 2: Building or the Bursh Khalifa and you step down into
Speaker 2: an ordinary skyscraper all of a sudden, it's like, oh,
Speaker 2: what happened? But the truth is, you know, yes, I agree,
Speaker 2: they've lost a lot of players in a lot of depth,
Speaker 2: and it doesn't get much run. I feel like in
Speaker 2: the national media, not yet anyway, were stir early. But
Speaker 2: you know, three fifths of their offensive line, and obviously
Speaker 2: they're highly talented defensive coordinator Geno Stone as we know
Speaker 2: in Love, etc. Et cetera, Odell Beckham who had sort
Speaker 2: of an underrated not necessarily statistical performance but just sort
Speaker 2: of the presence on the team last year. I thought
Speaker 2: he helped. But let's face it, they still have a
Speaker 2: lot of really good players. They're really strong that spine
Speaker 2: of their defense with Mattibuike and Rokwan Smith and Kyle
Speaker 2: Hamilton his outstanding obviously got the MVP at quarterbacks, So
Speaker 2: that's a good place to start. And you know, there,
Speaker 2: we've seen it before. They've lost a lot of players
Speaker 2: and you sort of think other Ravers in or trouble,
Speaker 2: whether through free agency and trays and things like that,
Speaker 2: or just from injuries, and yet they still somehow managed
Speaker 2: to have a good team. They have a great organization.
Speaker 2: As we know, they're really our chief rival. I think
Speaker 2: in a lot of ways, you know, not not emotionally necessarily,
Speaker 2: but just sort of realistically, and you know, underestimating them
Speaker 2: is something I've learned to do and not to do
Speaker 2: anymore or at my peril. So you know, they're they're
Speaker 2: still very high, and you know that's kind of why
Speaker 2: you know, the projection system still loves where they're at,
Speaker 2: is because they were so good last year and they
Speaker 2: didn't have very far to fall and even you know,
Speaker 2: unless they lose Lamar or something like that, you know
Speaker 2: they're still going to be a handful in the AFC Overall.
Speaker 1: In the question, the Browns have the third highest projected
Speaker 1: wind total in the division at nine point two. The
Speaker 1: Almanac describes Cleveland as having one of the best non
Speaker 1: quarterback rosters in the NFL. So let's talk about the quarterback.
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson has played twelve games in two years in Cleveland.
Speaker 1: The traditional stats aren't goods past the ratings bad. He
Speaker 1: hasn't thrown many touchdown passes. What did the advanced stats
Speaker 1: say about Deshaun Watson's play when he's been available.
Speaker 2: It's been bad. I mean, there's just no way, you know,
Speaker 2: around that. And I'm not saying it's a bad thing
Speaker 2: as a Bengal fan either. Yeah, I think you saw
Speaker 2: what they did last last year in Cleveland, though in
Speaker 2: large part was because they got want to they get Watson.
Speaker 2: He was hurt, you know, but they played almost the
Speaker 2: way they wanted to play without Watson in there, which
Speaker 2: is never a safe position. But because of the contract,
Speaker 2: they can't really admit that out loud, certainly and to themselves.
Speaker 2: Maybe you know that the offense looked the way I
Speaker 2: think they wanted it to play much more with Joe
Speaker 2: Flacco than with Deshaun Watson. And you know they brought
Speaker 2: in Ken Dorsey as no offensive coordinator to sort of unleash,
Speaker 2: if you will, a deeper game that Flacco managed to
Speaker 2: get done. For Deshaun Watson, the question is is he
Speaker 2: capable of that? You know, first of all, coming off
Speaker 2: a shoulder surgery that's obviously going to have some effect.
Speaker 2: It's hard to know what. And more to the point,
Speaker 2: he hasn't played like the quarterback that quote unquote Deshaun
Speaker 2: Watson is supposed to be in you know, a lifetime
Speaker 2: in terms of NFL the way of thinking. It's I
Speaker 2: can't even remember, you know what year was when I
Speaker 2: last went into a game thinking, Oh, Deshaun Watson's going
Speaker 2: to win this one by him. So, you know, the
Speaker 2: Browns last year did a lot with mirrors. They had
Speaker 2: obviously an outstanding defense, and they finally sort of addressed
Speaker 2: the properts and a lot of those guys like Martin
Speaker 2: Emerson and the joker Ousu Carasmo and you know, various
Speaker 2: other players on their defense and really had an outstanding unit.
Speaker 2: But you know, their their offensive baseline, which we always
Speaker 2: think of with the Browns, their great offensive line wasn't
Speaker 2: so great last year. And now they lose Bill Callahan,
Speaker 2: their all time great offensive line coach, who should have
Speaker 2: been in Cincinnati all these years. I'll never get over
Speaker 2: that either. But that's another side topic. So there's question
Speaker 2: marks there. You know, they kind of ran the football
Speaker 2: a little bit with mirrors last year, got some big plays,
Speaker 2: but weren't very efficient about it. And of course now
Speaker 2: you don't know what you're gonna get with Watson, and
Speaker 2: I think they showed their hand by ruy loading up
Speaker 2: in terms of backups in Cleveland, they have now four
Speaker 2: guys who could realistically play, not Joe Flacco. So yeah,
Speaker 2: they're a real question mark for me. They had a
Speaker 2: good projection because they had a very good season last
Speaker 2: year and it's not like they lost obvious players aside
Speaker 2: from Bill Callahan. You know, you know, look at their
Speaker 2: roster and think, oh, it's going to get substantially worse.
Speaker 2: But of course, as we know, the quarterback is the
Speaker 2: main you know pull on your entire team, and I
Speaker 2: don't think they can count on that, and I don't
Speaker 2: think anybody watching them should count on that until you
Speaker 2: see it out of Deshaun Watson.
Speaker 1: And finally we get to the Steelers. They have the
Speaker 1: lowest projected win total at seven point four. Don't you
Speaker 1: number crunchers know that a Mike Tomlin coach team is
Speaker 1: going to find a way to win at least nine games.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've got to figure that into the algorithm. Somehow.
Speaker 2: Surpise that Mike hasn't shown up at the offices and
Speaker 2: just you know, started smashing things and talking, you know,
Speaker 2: one of his great pep talks and said we're winning,
Speaker 2: We're going nine to eight. I don't care what we
Speaker 2: have to do or what the numbers say. It is
Speaker 2: true they somehow managed to pull that winning record out
Speaker 2: of their posterior seemingly every year without particular reason for it.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's not like they don't have good players.
Speaker 2: And I think a large part this year the projection
Speaker 2: system is looking at the course their quarterback situation and
Speaker 2: thinking to themselves, well, you got you replaced one or
Speaker 2: two or three bad quarterbacks with one or two or
Speaker 2: x bad quarterbacks, and what's going to change? And you know,
Speaker 2: the projection last year they obviously exceeded, but that doesn't
Speaker 2: mean that we should project them to do that again.
Speaker 2: You know, like you say, they always find a way.
Speaker 2: So perhaps that's just you know, the numbers not really
Speaker 2: taking reality into account. But it's hard to take that
Speaker 2: kind of magic into account when you look at their team. Now,
Speaker 2: it's possible that either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields find
Speaker 2: some sort of magic out of nowhere and blend with
Speaker 2: Arthur Smith. They're a new offensive coordinator and obviously Tomlin
Speaker 2: and they're better than we think. But it's going to
Speaker 2: be very hard for you know, again the projection ships
Speaker 2: and these to see it before they believe it, especially
Speaker 2: with quarterbacks who have had you know, several poor seasons
Speaker 2: in a row and ancholytically like Wilson and fields. So
Speaker 2: despite you know, having players like t. J. Watt on
Speaker 2: the field and Jalen Warren and all their other good players,
Speaker 2: and you know, they have a decent roster. It's not
Speaker 2: like they're a bad team. We know that firsthand. But
Speaker 2: just looking at their projection, it's hard to see them
Speaker 2: again doing anything until the quarterbacks prove that they can
Speaker 2: do it one or the other. Sort of the same
Speaker 2: situation with the Browns were in. They're just kind of
Speaker 2: the Browns writ a little bit less talented. Really, the
Speaker 2: Browns have a little bit more of a steadier defense
Speaker 2: than last year than the Steelers did and the more
Speaker 2: of a reliable kind of way to win games. The Steelers,
Speaker 2: you know, as we know, seem to you know, find
Speaker 2: these miracle ways of pulling w's out of nowhere, and
Speaker 2: it's not sustainable and not something the projection system likes
Speaker 2: to see. So that's that's why they're ready to low.
Speaker 2: But again, you know, I don't think any any Bengal
Speaker 2: fans taking the Steelers and looking at them and scalping
Speaker 2: and not worrying when we play them, that's for sure.
Speaker 1: We have about three minutes left in our zoom call
Speaker 1: time for one more topic. I was excited to see
Speaker 1: the latest two entries in the NYC one thousand in
Speaker 1: my inbox today. For those who are not familiar with
Speaker 1: this incredible project that you have undertaken, explain the NYC
Speaker 1: one thousand.
Speaker 2: It's hard to believe I'm still alive, but I am,
Speaker 2: and about two hundred entries into it, we're getting down
Speaker 2: totter number eight hundred. Now I am counting down ranking
Speaker 2: the top one thousand sporting events in New York City history.
Speaker 2: I am in New Yorker. You are too, although you're
Speaker 2: more state than city. But yes, it's kind of a
Speaker 2: side project that I do on my sub stack, the
Speaker 2: NYC one thousand. Just google that or winehrap r dot
Speaker 2: substack dot com and you can see where I've gone through.
Speaker 2: The conceit is. It has to have happened in New
Speaker 2: York proper, the footprint there, So you know, a Super
Speaker 2: Bowl that the Giants played in Miami does not count
Speaker 2: as long as that happened in New York. And of
Speaker 2: course that goes through you know, over a century and
Speaker 2: a half now almost of not just sporting events, but
Speaker 2: really the history of New York, the history of the country.
Speaker 2: So much has happened there that relates to how, you know,
Speaker 2: sports and the culture have really grown together. It's really
Speaker 2: interesting to see when you go back and look at
Speaker 2: things like a match from the eighties between Martine and
Speaker 2: Navatarova and Steppie Garoff, how enormous and how epical that
Speaker 2: seemed to the time, and yet you know now it's like, oh, yeah,
Speaker 2: we've moved on. Who were those two? You know? But
Speaker 2: I like to relive the fact that these were two
Speaker 2: enormous sporting figures. And obviously that doesn't even take into
Speaker 2: account all the great athletes and all the great sporting events,
Speaker 2: not to mention teams that have taken place in New York,
Speaker 2: really the heart of the sporting city and the cultural
Speaker 2: capital of the world, one would argue. So anyway, that's
Speaker 2: what I've been doing on the side for the last
Speaker 2: couple of years, and keep on keeping on until we
Speaker 2: get to number one. Hopefully I'll still be alive. This
Speaker 2: project won't kill me or other outside forces will keep
Speaker 2: me going, and we'll find the countdown, and then I'll
Speaker 2: start in on the Cincinnati two to fifty or whatever
Speaker 2: you think the proper number is, Dan, and we'll go
Speaker 2: from there.
Speaker 1: I love it well. You mentioned Martine and Stephanie. They
Speaker 1: are the subject of the most recent entry, number eight thirteen.
Speaker 1: You're writing about their match in nineteen eighty six was
Speaker 1: so entertaining that I watched a chunk of the match
Speaker 1: on YouTube. So you do a great job with the
Speaker 1: NYC one thousand and for the FTN Football Almanac, the
Speaker 1: Bengals chapter is great. Robert, always appreciate your time. Thanks
Speaker 1: so much for joining us, and keep up the great work.
Speaker 2: Thanks so much, Dan, The pleasure is always mine.
Speaker 1: You don't have to be a New Yorker to enjoy
Speaker 1: Robert's list of the top one thousand sporting events in
Speaker 1: the New York City area. Is writing is the fun part.
Speaker 1: If you're interested in checking it out, just search for
Speaker 1: NYC one thousand sub stack. That's going to do it
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Speaker 1: more Bengals fans find us. I'm Dan Hord and thanks
Speaker 1: for listening to the Bengals Booth podcast.