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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

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Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

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Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Thursday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have Christal, Indeed we do, guys. We

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Speaker 1: are getting down to it. The midterms are now just

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Speaker 1: days away. We have all kinds of new polls out

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Speaker 1: of each of the states. Also, like overall national polls,

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Speaker 1: we have one key voting group that Democrats have been

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Speaker 1: counting on moving sharply to the Republicans. So break all

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Speaker 1: of that down for you and just go state by

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Speaker 1: state at what the picture is. We also are going

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Speaker 1: to break down Biden's big democracy speech last night. We

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Speaker 1: got a little bit as found we can play. We

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Speaker 1: can talk about all of that and whether we think

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Speaker 1: it will make a difference or not. New you can

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Speaker 1: probably guess what we think. New revelations about exactly what

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Speaker 1: Elon Musk plans to do with regards to Twitter and

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Speaker 1: the business model. And also actually just this morning I

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Speaker 1: saw more officially that massive layoffs about fifty percent of

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Speaker 1: the workforce set to be cut there. So we'll break

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Speaker 1: all of that down for you and whether we think

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Speaker 1: it will work or not. New developments out of Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: Russia is back into that grain deal. We'll see what

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Speaker 1: that means. And also some interesting revelations about how close

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Speaker 1: we may have come to the nuclear brink, whether temperatures

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Speaker 1: have cooled it all because of some discussions between our

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Speaker 1: officials and Russian officials, some interesting intelligence there. And we

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Speaker 1: also have some pretty rough stumbles. We got Biden twice

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Speaker 1: here in the lineup, some pretty rough stumbles in terms

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Speaker 1: of his ability to articulate exactly what's going on now,

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Speaker 1: what's gone on in the past, And interestingly enough, mainstream

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Speaker 1: media taking notes, which is in some ways the most

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Speaker 1: interesting part of this because Biden stumbles are certainly not new,

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Speaker 1: but the fact that The New York Times is writing

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Speaker 1: them up that is new. So what does that mean?

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Speaker 1: Sager is asking whether we should have a pandemic amnesty.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Democrats' last gasp hope in terms

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Speaker 1: of the midterms. And we have someone we've been trying

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Speaker 1: to get on for a while, Stan Greenberg, who has

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Speaker 1: been doing everything he can to try to persuade Democrats

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Speaker 1: that they should be running on an economic message. New

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Speaker 1: numbers indicate that, you know, overwhelmingly their ads dollars went

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Speaker 1: towards abortion and not towards any sort of affirmative economic message.

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Speaker 1: So we're going to talk to him about all of that,

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Speaker 1: but we do before we jump into the midterms, want

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Speaker 1: to tell you next week we are going to be

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Speaker 1: doing a live midterms live stream live stream seven pm

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Speaker 1: Eastern Standard time. Actually, no, I think it'll be daylight

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Speaker 1: time there, thank god. Anyway, so really, what is the

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Speaker 1: change of the week? Got a great question anyway, So anyway,

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Speaker 1: we're seven pm. We will be alive seven pm Eastern

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Speaker 1: whenever that is for everybody across the country. We'll be going.

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Speaker 1: We've got Kyle, We've got Marshall, We've got Ryan, Emily

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Speaker 1: will be in and out. We've got great guests that

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Speaker 1: are standing by. We also have people live on the scene,

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Speaker 1: thanks very much to our premium subscribers at OZ and

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Speaker 1: Fetterman HQ, which we can go live to in the

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Speaker 1: middle of whatever is sure to be a fun evening.

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Speaker 1: We are going to have a premium benefit for our

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Speaker 1: premium subscribers during that live stream, So if you do

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Speaker 1: want to go ahead and sign up, the link is

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Speaker 1: down in the description. But I think it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a lot of fun. Yeah, I'm psyched about it, and

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Speaker 1: I mean the results is genuinely uncertain. I love election nine, yeah,

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Speaker 1: both of us. I think at this point really expect

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Speaker 1: Republicans to have a pretty strong nine. That's what the

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Speaker 1: polling seems to indicate us. We're about to get into.

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Speaker 1: But you just never know and the details of who

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Speaker 1: does well and where and the big surprises, Like you

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Speaker 1: just there's always something that's going to be completely unpredictable.

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Speaker 1: So excited for that, and we should have a good

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Speaker 1: crew in here in house to break it all down.

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Speaker 1: All Right, that being said, let's get to the midterms.

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Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal with some new polling with a really

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Speaker 1: dire warning sign here for Democrats, White suburban women shifting

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Speaker 1: sharply back to the Republican Party. Their headline is white

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Speaker 1: suburban women's swing turn backing Republicans for Congress. Pretty straightforward.

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Speaker 1: New Wall Street Journal poll shows key group of midterm

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Speaker 1: voters favors the GOP now by fifteen percentage points. All right,

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Speaker 1: let me give you a little bit of the details here.

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Speaker 1: This is a twenty seven point swing away from Democrats

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Speaker 1: since just August. So back in August, and you know

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Speaker 1: that was around the time front there were some special elections,

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Speaker 1: those were going pretty well for Democrats. The polls were

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Speaker 1: looking pretty good for Democrats. Fetterman had double digit lead.

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Speaker 1: All that was that timeframe. Since then, twenty seven point

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Speaker 1: swing among white suburban women. This is a voting group

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Speaker 1: that Democrats relied on in twenty eighteen when they did

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Speaker 1: fairly well in the midterms. Is the voting group they

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Speaker 1: heavily relied on for Biden to be able to win

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Speaker 1: the White House in twenty twenty. Most importantly, this is

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Speaker 1: the voting group they really thought would be most swayed

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Speaker 1: by the overturning of Roe versus Wade and would be

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Speaker 1: most impacted by that and most interested in voting based

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Speaker 1: sort of solely on that, you know, the whole ad

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Speaker 1: strategy of Democrats which were about to get into which

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Speaker 1: was heavily focused on abortion. This is really the group

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Speaker 1: that they were sort of betting the farm on that

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Speaker 1: they would be really really critical of that decision overturn

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Speaker 1: ro versus Wade, and would be basing their vote on it.

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Speaker 1: That does not seem to be panning out. This group,

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Speaker 1: like every other group, is concerned about the economy, and

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Speaker 1: views of the economy among the group is are very

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Speaker 1: very negative, to be specific, and these are a numbers

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Speaker 1: from this article. In August, forty three percent thought that

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Speaker 1: the economy had entered a recession. Still not great, But

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Speaker 1: today you now have fifty nine percent saying that the

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Speaker 1: economy is headed in the wrong direction. So big shift

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Speaker 1: there in terms of sentiment around the economy. That is

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Speaker 1: a disaster. You also have them increasingly citing rising prices

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Speaker 1: and the economy overall as their number one issue. You also,

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Speaker 1: you know, you get some insight into why they're feeling

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Speaker 1: this way there's been all this discussion about like, oh,

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Speaker 1: the media is portraying the economy is so much worse

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Speaker 1: than it is, and you know, they're convincing voters that

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Speaker 1: things are bad as if people don't know what's going

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Speaker 1: on in their own lives. And that's reflected here too.

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Speaker 1: You've got sixty six percent of white suburban women saying

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Speaker 1: that rising costs are causing a major or minor financial strain.

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Speaker 1: That is compared with fifty four percent in August. So

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Speaker 1: again another number headed in the wrong direction where people

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Speaker 1: are increasingly feeling the squeeze of high prices, and in

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Speaker 1: an ominous warning sign for twenty twenty four. If that

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four election were held today between Biden and Trump,

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Speaker 1: forty one percent of white suburban women say they'd back Biden,

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Speaker 1: fifty two percent say they would back Trump. Back in August,

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Speaker 1: those numbers were not just flipped, but Biden had an

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Speaker 1: even larger lead than Trump enjoys. Now, fifty five percent

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Speaker 1: in August say they would be behind Biden, so a

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Speaker 1: solid majority, and only thirty nine percent behind Trump. So

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Speaker 1: this is a massive, massive warning sign for Democrats, as

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Speaker 1: they had done the stretch here, white suburban women just

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Speaker 1: like the rest of us. It turns out they're like, hey,

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Speaker 1: I care a lot about abortion and democracy and all

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Speaker 1: this stuff, but rising prices are got to pay the bill.

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Speaker 1: I got to pay my bills. Gas is just too expensive.

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Speaker 1: They even say. There's one woman who was quoted in

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Speaker 1: the article. It says, look, I agree with the Democrats

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Speaker 1: on social issues, but right now, like people are just

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Speaker 1: spending way too much money in order to live. Shocker.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I mean women are oftentimes the ones who

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Speaker 1: are going to the grocery store, who are seeing, you know,

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Speaker 1: the prices, who are like understanding what that means in

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Speaker 1: terms of what they can put on the table for

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Speaker 1: their families. So she quoted right here, I eat cheerios

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Speaker 1: every morning. It's doubled in price. It impacting me personally.

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Speaker 1: I came out with a few grocery bags and I

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Speaker 1: just paid one hundred and twenty dollars. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: always like to think of universal experiences, like, no matter

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Speaker 1: how much money you have, when you check out the

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Speaker 1: grocery store, you're like, oh my god, this is a

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Speaker 1: lot more expensive than it was the last time. You

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Speaker 1: can't help but notice same when you go to the

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Speaker 1: gas pump. I mean, these are just things which are

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Speaker 1: going to land empirically with everybody rather than trying to

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Speaker 1: go and niche down. The twenty seven point swing is

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Speaker 1: just a tremendous validation or sorry, is a tremendous Is

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Speaker 1: it basically like a validation that the the democratic strategy

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Speaker 1: has been a complete failure in my opinion? Well, I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you're someone who believes in material politics, I guess

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Speaker 1: it's proof positive. Yes, I certainly so. Which is that

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Speaker 1: you know, you spent all this money on abortion, messaging

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Speaker 1: on democracy, and increasingly even amongst people who are sympathetic.

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Speaker 1: You should remember these people did not vote for Trump.

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Speaker 1: They voted well, I mean in some cases certainly like

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Speaker 1: it was it was closer to fifty to fifty. But

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Speaker 1: this is the cold that delivered Nancy Pelosi her speakership

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Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen. This is the coalition in the group,

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Speaker 1: more so than any which is responsible for Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: winning the presidency. So you should listen to them about

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Speaker 1: what they care about. Not only that, I mean since

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, who was it that was famously like, oh,

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Speaker 1: for every like white working class voter, we lose will

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Speaker 1: win two in the summurb I don't remember, you know

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Speaker 1: the famous quote, yes, and that has been the Democratic

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Speaker 1: Party strategy. They're like, all right, well, we're bleeding white

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Speaker 1: working class voters. And now, by the way, they're also

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Speaker 1: bleeding like black and brown working class voters as well.

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Speaker 1: But they're like, we'll go with the affluent suburban nights,

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Speaker 1: you know, college educated white liberals. That'll be our base.

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Speaker 1: And now you see even that strategy when you don't

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Speaker 1: have an economic message to back it up. Ultimately, when

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Speaker 1: you know the economy is overwhelming the number one concern

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Speaker 1: that ultimately looks to be failing as well. And you know,

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Speaker 1: it's not like the Republicans have really advertised their economic strategy.

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Speaker 1: It's not like they have a good plan. I broke

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Speaker 1: down here how I think their economic plans in fact,

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Speaker 1: are a further disaster. They're talking about triggering debt crisis,

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Speaker 1: cutting social security, medicare. All of that being said, when

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Speaker 1: you are the party that is in power, if you

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Speaker 1: just default that issue to the other side, you don't

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Speaker 1: really talk about it. Of course, they're going to have

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Speaker 1: better numbers on it. And I mean, no one should

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Speaker 1: be surprised that majority of voters say Republicans have a

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Speaker 1: better plan because they're living in the economy right now

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Speaker 1: with Democrats in control, and they're saying this isn't working

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Speaker 1: out for me. So in the absence of any kind

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Speaker 1: of messaging about hey, concretely, if you give us power gun,

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Speaker 1: here is exactly what we will do to help you

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Speaker 1: out in the same way that they did with the

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Speaker 1: two thousand dollars checks. If you aren't offering that, then

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Speaker 1: of course you're going to be host on these numbers.

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Speaker 1: And I guess the other thing that we should say

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Speaker 1: here is like, you know, the history is difficult, the

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Speaker 1: economic landscape is difficult. Only so much of that is

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Speaker 1: in Biden the Democrats' control. And maybe even if they

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Speaker 1: engage in the sort of messaging that our guest today

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Speaker 1: San Greenberg has been arguing for saying, hey, we're going

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Speaker 1: to re up the child tax credit. We're going to

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Speaker 1: pay for it by tax and the ridge. You know,

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Speaker 1: even if they did that, there's no guarantees that they

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Speaker 1: would win the messaging on the economy. But because abortion

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Speaker 1: and social issues are a factor, an important factor, if

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Speaker 1: you just ate into the margin, that could actually be enough.

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Speaker 1: I mean Republicans gave Democrats every chance to succeed here,

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Speaker 1: like talking about cutting social security, medicare talking about having

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Speaker 1: a debt crisis, putting up candidates who are like, you know,

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Speaker 1: basically a free show. They gave them every opportunity here

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Speaker 1: to buck history and succeed, and Democrats are like, now,

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Speaker 1: we're just going to keep talking about democracy because that

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Speaker 1: seems to really be working for us. It's a structural

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Speaker 1: flawf the elites of the party are obsessed with democracy

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Speaker 1: and with social issues, and you know, this is always issue.

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Speaker 1: Nobody's saying it's not important, but you know, for a

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Speaker 1: lot of people, they have to weigh things with what

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Speaker 1: exactly they have to pay at the pump, at the

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Speaker 1: grocery store, mortgage rent tuition. I mean, you can go

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Speaker 1: on forever about the ices that have gone up, and yeah,

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Speaker 1: just generally people think that the country is on the

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Speaker 1: wrong track. Yeah that is just Look, I keep coming

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Speaker 1: back to the fundamentals, and I increasingly think that we

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Speaker 1: are in for some upsets possibly. I mean, we were

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Speaker 1: looking at New Hampshire. New Hampshire is razor type. Yeah

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Speaker 1: right now, and guess what white suburban wellman I hear

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Speaker 1: a lot of white folks live in New York. Republicans

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Speaker 1: had basically abandoned their nominee there bal Duck or whatever

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Speaker 1: because he's kind of a like a fringe freak, and

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Speaker 1: the more moderate candidate that they liked lost in the primary. Well,

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Speaker 1: they're now flooding the zone with him because they see,

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Speaker 1: oh whow, we got a shot here. Yes, so it

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Speaker 1: tells you the way that things have shifted moved. We're

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Speaker 1: going to get into that more in a minute. The

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Speaker 1: other pushback that I get online because I've been talking

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Speaker 1: for a while about the fact that you know, where

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Speaker 1: is the economic messaging? You have to be talking about

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Speaker 1: the number one issue. You can't just see this terrain

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Speaker 1: is people say they are talking about it. Here's Katie

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Speaker 1: Porter saying something. Here's Elizabeth Warren saying something, Here's Biden

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Speaker 1: saying something. But you know, follow the money here, and

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Speaker 1: the reality is, in terms of what ads they are

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Speaker 1: running and what messaging they are running with on the ground,

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Speaker 1: it is overwhelmingly about abortion and a tiny sliver is

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Speaker 1: ultimately about the economy. So with this on the screen,

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Speaker 1: this is from the New York Times, they broke down

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Speaker 1: the numbers. This is within a larger article. Basically, they

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Speaker 1: say top Democrats question their party strategy as midterm worries grow.

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Speaker 1: So some of these some of this angst, I mean,

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Speaker 1: some of this is also positioning. You know, Democrats trying

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Speaker 1: to play the blame game in advance so that they

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Speaker 1: can throw whoever their favorite villain is under the bus

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Speaker 1: here when things don't go well in the midterms. But

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Speaker 1: they break down the numbers, Democrats have spent about three

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty million dollars on ads focused on abortion.

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Speaker 1: In terms of ads focused on the economy, they have

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Speaker 1: spent a tenth of that thirty one million, so ten

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Speaker 1: times more on ads about abortion at a time when

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Speaker 1: people are overwhelmingly telling you the economy is their number

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Speaker 1: one issue. The Republicans have had run many more ads

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Speaker 1: on inflation and gas prices. And again they have the

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Speaker 1: luxury since they're in the opposition now of not really

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Speaker 1: having to lay out that concrete plan. I'd be better

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Speaker 1: if they had a concrete plan that was going to

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Speaker 1: help people, and then a concrete plan that's going to

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Speaker 1: screw people over. But all they have to do is

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Speaker 1: say things aren't going well, gas prices are high, your

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Speaker 1: budget is stretched. Prices go up and up and up,

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Speaker 1: and that is sufficient when you are ultimately in the opposition. So,

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Speaker 1: I mean, the numbers really bear out that Democrats put

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Speaker 1: all of their eggs in the row row your vote basket,

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Speaker 1: and it doesn't seem to be working out. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think that's the least of what was said. I think

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Speaker 1: that they will have to eat a lot of crow. Well,

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Speaker 1: actually no, I'm probably wrong. Which is that because in general,

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Speaker 1: what we see amongst Democratic elites, and this actually Republican

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Speaker 1: elites too, all elites in the United States, they never

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Speaker 1: really pay a price for their failures. Right. You can

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Speaker 1: literally spend billions of dollars, which is what these people

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Speaker 1: are doing, and apparently the people who give it to

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Speaker 1: them will just be like, you know, better, luckbacks. The

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Speaker 1: Republicans are still bad. So I'm going to fork up

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Speaker 1: that check next time around. I would personally never understand it,

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Speaker 1: Like if I gave somebody two five hundred dollars of

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Speaker 1: my money and they spent it on something which backfired

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Speaker 1: tremendously or at the very least didn't do what they

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Speaker 1: said they were going to do, why do they keep

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Speaker 1: doing it? I mean, I will I don't know that.

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Speaker 1: They'll have their ready made excuse. It's the voter's fault. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's right. They need to care about democracy more. They

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Speaker 1: didn't care about the right things. They didn't vote on.

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Speaker 1: There we told them democracy was at stake. It's their

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Speaker 1: fault that they didn't show up ultimately and vote for us.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about this more on the next block of

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Speaker 1: Biden's Big Democracy speech. But personally, if you really view

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Speaker 1: this as like existential that you win this election because

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Speaker 1: of the fate of democracy is at stake or whatever,

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Speaker 1: maybe you should be focusing on the issues that people

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Speaker 1: are telling you they really care about in order to

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Speaker 1: try to win that election. Okay, so let's break down

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Speaker 1: state by state where we are and big picture, Basically,

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Speaker 1: every one of these averages, even the ones where Democrats

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Speaker 1: still hold on to slim or even significant lead, every

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Speaker 1: one of them has been moving in favor of Republicans.

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Speaker 1: And now you have, you know, five point thirty eight

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Speaker 1: eight in check it this morning, but for the first time,

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Speaker 1: they are giving Republicans a narrow edge in terms of

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Speaker 1: winning the Senate. So you can just see the way

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Speaker 1: the momentum is going right now, even while saying, listen,

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Speaker 1: polls could be wrong in a variety of directions, even

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Speaker 1: though it's mostly been wrong in recent history in favor

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Speaker 1: of the Democrats rather than in favor of the Republicans.

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Speaker 1: But who the hell knows what's going to happen. But

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Speaker 1: I can just tell you the trend right now has

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Speaker 1: been very much towards Republicans in every single one of

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Speaker 1: these races. So let's look at Georgia first. We pulled

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Speaker 1: the Real Clear Politics average for all of these. You

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Speaker 1: can see the trend line at the bottom, which has

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Speaker 1: Warnock falling off somewhat, Walker rising significantly. Walker is now

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Speaker 1: favored in again the Real Clear Politics average by one

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Speaker 1: point six percentage points. I went ahead and took a

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Speaker 1: look at the last two polls in this race, and

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Speaker 1: it's a split decision. In terms of the last two polls.

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Speaker 1: The Fox five Insider Advantage poll had Walker plus three.

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Speaker 1: The Publican the New York Times Siena poll had Warnock

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Speaker 1: plus three. We went through last time how New York

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Speaker 1: Times Sienna has been in recent years more favorable towards Democrats.

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Speaker 1: They've had a miss that, you know, So I would

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Speaker 1: take anything that they have, and I think in Georgia,

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Speaker 1: the miss was about three points, so you would have

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Speaker 1: this as basically a total toss act. I believe the

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Speaker 1: miss was four, which is if anything, Yeah, for Walker,

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Speaker 1: it sounds right on the money with the WHI, which

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Speaker 1: is exactly what the Realclare politics average average is one

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Speaker 1: point five. That's where if you know, again, if I

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Speaker 1: had to put my money, that's probably where it would go.

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Speaker 1: I think we're really just learning about structural advantages whenever

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Speaker 1: you are the party in power in a national political environment.

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Speaker 1: The days of local politics effectively died in twenty ten

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Speaker 1: with the Tea Party wave and the referendum on Barack Obama,

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Speaker 1: and from that year forward, every single election, downstream, upstream, primary,

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Speaker 1: everything has been on the major national questions. There are

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Speaker 1: some marginal cases where we can argue that that's not

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Speaker 1: the case, but by and large that seems to be

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Speaker 1: the overwhelming trend of politics and candidate quality. Increasingly, as

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Speaker 1: we have seen the data is bearing out that even

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Speaker 1: if it's a really, really bad candidate, at best, you

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Speaker 1: are talking about maybe a point or two, which is,

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Speaker 1: you know, sad whenever you do think about it. But

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Speaker 1: on the one hand, some localism does matter let's throw

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Speaker 1: the next one up there, which is Arizona. This is

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Speaker 1: where I think you could make a case where candidate

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Speaker 1: quality has made it so that it is a much

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Speaker 1: tighter race Crystal than arguably and structurally that it should be.

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Speaker 1: The RCP average has Mark Kelly with a two point

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Speaker 1: three percent advantage. Now that's even with a Fox poll

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Speaker 1: that shows Mark Kelly up by one. As we have seen,

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Speaker 1: he actually is out running Joe Biden in his approval

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Speaker 1: rating in the state, He's far above fifty percent. He

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Speaker 1: consistently hammers Biden on the border. He's you know, talking

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Speaker 1: about inflation he has. It's a very strange situation because

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Speaker 1: on the one hand he does vote with the National

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party. Right. Look, he's never been the kissing cinema

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Speaker 1: sticking the mud on any of that, yet locally has

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Speaker 1: been able to make the case he's like, no, I

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Speaker 1: am an independent minded figure. I don't necessarily go along

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Speaker 1: with the Biden consent. He's even running ads, you know,

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Speaker 1: even saying talking about the president. I would have found

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Speaker 1: it fascinating. Maggie Hassen is actually running her latest ad

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Speaker 1: is I'm standing up to President Biden, which anytime you

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Speaker 1: have to do that, by the way, is not good

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Speaker 1: and by the way, it rarely works. I was going

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Speaker 1: to say, by the way, never I forget. You know,

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Speaker 1: I've told the story Ched Edwards, my congressman, had lost

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Speaker 1: by the largest margin in twenty ten, and he'd represented

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Speaker 1: a Democrat for R plus twenty five district. He ran.

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Speaker 1: I remember one of his last ads, he was like,

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Speaker 1: I'm standing up to Nancy Pelosi. And that's when I

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Speaker 1: was like, yeah, he's gonna lose the last gasp as

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Speaker 1: effort here. Yeah, yeah, I mean, I think the other

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Speaker 1: thing that was really persuasive to me in the New

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Speaker 1: York Times polling about this race is even putting the

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Speaker 1: candidates aside, which I think Mark Kelly is a strong

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Speaker 1: candidate for Democrats. I think Blake Masters has been a

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Speaker 1: very weak candidate for Republicans just because of some of

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Speaker 1: the you know, extreme views he's taken, both on abortion

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Speaker 1: but also on economic issues. But they also found in

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Speaker 1: Arizona that social cultural issues were weighing more heavily on

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Speaker 1: the electorate than in other states. And they've had some

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Speaker 1: sort of like fierce local state level battles around abortion

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Speaker 1: rights and whether it's going to be completely banned in

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Speaker 1: the state and those sorts of things. So it makes

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Speaker 1: sense to me that in that way there's a little

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Speaker 1: bit of localism there where abortion is weighing more heavily

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Speaker 1: invoter's mind. So that would certainly give Mark Kelly a

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Speaker 1: bit more of an edge. I think, you know, this

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Speaker 1: is the race where consistently Democrats have held the largest

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Speaker 1: the largest margin. It too is closing, you know, the

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Speaker 1: gap is closing there as well. So I certainly don't

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Speaker 1: think that it's out of the realm of possibility that

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Speaker 1: Masters would win. But I think as you look at

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Speaker 1: these races, the Arizona one has to be the one

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Speaker 1: where Democrats feel the most comfortable, have the best shot

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Speaker 1: at being able to hold on ultimately. Right, And let's

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Speaker 1: throw and why it's fascinating too, is demographically Arizona should

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Speaker 1: be much more in play for the Republicans or for

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Speaker 1: the Democrats. Sorry, Nevada, which we're about to talk to you.

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Speaker 1: Let's put that up there on the screen, which is

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Speaker 1: that Nevada demographically, historically, electorally, all of that should be

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Speaker 1: far more favorable to the Democrats here. Given that you

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Speaker 1: have an incumbent Democratic senator, you have the state having

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Speaker 1: gone for Biden for Democrats, and the last two presidential

431
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 1: elections it has been tight, and yet we have had

432
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 1: Adam Laxalt there up far more than over Catherine Cortez

433
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 1: Mastow than Mark Kelly or Blake Masters has over Mark

434
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 1: Kelly and I actually have been trying to figure out

435
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 1: exactly why. You know, Cortes Masto is a very run

436
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 1: of the mill, just like Median Democratic senator. That possibly

437
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 1: could be why she just doesn't have as big of

438
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,639
Speaker 1: a statewide type profile, which means that the national wins

439
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 1: would move more in the Republican direction. But it is

440
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,159
Speaker 1: really difficult one to square right Arizona. You know, Biden

441
00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 1: barely won the state in twenty twenty, and before that,

442
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 1: obviously it was a solidly Republican state for decades. So

443
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 1: to just look at Nevada trending so much right now

444
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 1: in the GOP direction really does ask us a lot

445
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 1: of questions about what that means. I'm fascinated by politics

446
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 1: in Nevada because this is one of the few states

447
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:20,919
Speaker 1: where union support really really makes a difference, because you know,

448
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,199
Speaker 1: the culinary workers Union is so powerful there. You have

449
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,679
Speaker 1: such a significant sizable chunk of the workforce that is

450
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:30,680
Speaker 1: actually organized, and that's why in previous years, even as

451
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,119
Speaker 1: other places have swung to the right, especially places with

452
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 1: large working class bases, Nevada has actually held pretty strong

453
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:41,159
Speaker 1: for Democrats. They've been able to hold onto that state

454
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:43,679
Speaker 1: even as large swaths of the working class start to

455
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,919
Speaker 1: move towards the Republican Party. That's all because of the

456
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,960
Speaker 1: union base of support there, which you know, we know

457
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 1: that some union members, certainly a significant chunk at this

458
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 1: point vote for Republicans, but being in a union is

459
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 1: still one of the most significant indicators of voting Democratics,

460
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,919
Speaker 1: So it still really matters a lot that you have

461
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 1: a strong union base of support. So that's one point

462
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 1: in favor of the Democrats. On the other hand, no

463
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 1: state was hit harder during the pandemic than Nevada. You

464
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 1: do have, you know, a population that is heavily working class,

465
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 1: working in the service sector, food prices, gas prices, all

466
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 1: of these things weighing very, very heavily on this electorate.

467
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 1: So whereas in Arizona you have more voters saying they're

468
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 1: focused on the social cultural issues, in Nevada, it's the

469
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 1: mirror image situation where you have more, even more voters

470
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,719
Speaker 1: saying no, no, this is all about the economy, and

471
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:40,680
Speaker 1: that's just very difficult waters for Democrats at this point. Now,

472
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 1: Nevada is one of the states where the polls have

473
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 1: been the closest to accurate. So you've got the Republican

474
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 1: with about a two point lead right now. I mean,

475
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 1: this thing has been tight the whole way through. It's

476
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 1: basically been a jump ball in terms of the pulling

477
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 1: the whole way through. Where some of these other states

478
00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 1: you had, you know, at times Democrats with like a

479
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 1: double digit lead, this one has always been extremely close.

480
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 1: I pulled the last two polls here the Hill Emerson

481
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 1: had the Republican Lasault up five. USA today Suffolk had

482
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 1: Catherine Cortez Masso up by one. But again the overall

483
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 1: polling average has the Republican by almost two points. So yeah,

484
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:22,879
Speaker 1: I definitely think you would rather be the Republicans, just

485
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:27,119
Speaker 1: because again, economic concerns. Democratic failures to message on economic

486
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 1: concerns probably going to override the benefits that they have

487
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 1: there in terms of unionization. If you didn't have that

488
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 1: strong union presence there, this thing would be done and

489
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 1: over and not even a question mark. That's a great point. Yeah,

490
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 1: I mean, look, it's a crazy landscape and with every

491
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 1: single one of these states, like some flavor of localism

492
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 1: is coming out, but the national trends are just really

493
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 1: bearing so strongly behind yeah, the Republicans that in almost

494
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 1: every case except maybe Arizona, you just have to look

495
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 1: at it and be like, well, that seems to be

496
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 1: where things are blowing. By the way, we did include

497
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: New Hampshire, but as I as I alluded to earlier,

498
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 1: actually this morning a new Trafalgar pole actually came out

499
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 1: showing bull Duck up for the very first time by

500
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,239
Speaker 1: just one percentage point over Maggie Hassen there in New

501
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 1: ham That would be a major upset because we gain

502
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,879
Speaker 1: for the for the republic House over that seat. And

503
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:18,679
Speaker 1: it's not just Trafalgar. You also had a s Anselm

504
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 1: pole was the other most recent pole that also had

505
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 1: Ballduck with a one point lead. The overall average is

506
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 1: now just point five in favor of Maggie Hassen. So yeah,

507
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 1: this is this one has become a real toss up.

508
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 1: You know, one thing on Georgia that I just want

509
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: to make sure we note, which is that if neither

510
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 1: of these candidates get to fifty percent, which is entirely possible,

511
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 1: then that goes to a runoff. And you know that's

512
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 1: a whole other situation. But in terms of who has

513
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 1: the edge right now to win the most votes on

514
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:53,399
Speaker 1: election day looking like Walker, the last one is, you know,

515
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 1: when we focused in the media has focused a lot

516
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,400
Speaker 1: of attention on, which is the Pennsylvania race between Fetterman

517
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 1: and Oz. Let's go ahead and put those numbers up

518
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 1: on the screen here and you can see Fetterman's still

519
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 1: clinging to a small lead here in terms of the average.

520
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,120
Speaker 1: He's up by one point two in the Real Claire

521
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 1: Politics average. And I pulled the last two poles. Monmouth

522
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 1: has Fetterman plus four and Muhlenberg Muhlenberg College, Yes, Muhlenberg,

523
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: I don't know whatever has it even has it as

524
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 1: a jump ball. I mean, this one is again total

525
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 1: jump ball. And Pennsylvania is one of those states where

526
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: pollsters have been missing, and they've been missing big yes,

527
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 1: because this is a state that has a significant white

528
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 1: working class population, especially the western part of the state.

529
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:44,360
Speaker 1: They've been, you know, sort of consistently under counting Republican support.

530
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 1: And so the fact that Fetterman in average only with

531
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 1: one point two of a lead. Alex pretty Dice and

532
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 1: two Poles came out this morning actually with Oz atot

533
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,880
Speaker 1: plus one at our point, So hail Emerson, now yeah,

534
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 1: putting him up at OZ taking first time lead in

535
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 1: that poll in a Sussequana. I believe I said that correctly, Susquehanna.

536
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 1: So skate whatever, all right, sorry, Pennsylvania has them up

537
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 1: by one as well, So very interesting. I mean, you're

538
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 1: effectively total jump there, which again, you know, given the

539
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,119
Speaker 1: way that the polling misses have been in the past,

540
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 1: just the wins at the backs of the Republicans. Yes, indeed,

541
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 1: all right, to get into a little bit more of

542
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 1: like a little more of the texture of how voters

543
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,439
Speaker 1: are feeling, how they're thinking about this election, how they

544
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 1: feel about both of these parties. More perfect Union actually

545
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 1: did a great video where they went down and talked

546
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: to four Texas voters of course South Texas famously in

547
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, massive shifts to the right, you know, Republicans

548
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,360
Speaker 1: picking up Latino voters in a way that no one,

549
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 1: even I think Republicans in their wildest dreams, didn't expect

550
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 1: to have that kind of a shift in that quick

551
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 1: of a timeframe, and so more perfect. Junion did the

552
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:53,920
Speaker 1: work of going down and talking to a few folks

553
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,919
Speaker 1: who have varying political affiliations. She got everybody who's like,

554
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 1: you know, pretty much republican small business owner, to someone

555
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 1: who's like a DSA organizer, a young woman who is

556
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,119
Speaker 1: a DSA organizer. So let's take a listen to a

557
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: little bit of what they had to say about how

558
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 1: they're thinking about these elections. You know, I'm tired of

559
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 1: seeing politicians that are lifelong politicians that are filthy rich,

560
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,639
Speaker 1: like you're a public servant, How are you a millionaire?

561
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 1: They really sometimes they don't even think of the working class,

562
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 1: the people that are actually working eight hours of a

563
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 1: day or more to support their families. In the last

564
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 1: two elections, Democrats have been losing working class voters and

565
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 1: voters of color, groups that were once considered their base,

566
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 1: and among Latino voters it's especially dramatic, with Democrats losing

567
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 1: as much as fifty five points in some regions. National

568
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 1: polls have shown that working class Latinos rank economic issues

569
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: like the cost of living in wages well above any

570
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 1: other issue, but in parts of the country, Democrats have

571
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 1: failed to convince voters that they can help people who

572
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 1: are struggling. Now, Democrats are at risk of losing three

573
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,720
Speaker 1: districts in South Texas that were reliably blue for the

574
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:07,479
Speaker 1: last century. Republicans are running three Latina candidates who are

575
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 1: campaigning on the economy and high gas prices and painting

576
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 1: both local and national Democrats as out of touch with

577
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 1: working class concerns. Yeah, I mean, you know, it's it's obvious,

578
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 1: but it's always important to hear from actual voters, and

579
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 1: you know, the concerns were exactly what you would expect.

580
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 1: Yestial Washington's out of touch. They really don't care for

581
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 1: either party. It's not like they're in love with the Republicans,

582
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 1: but the Democrats are in power right now and things

583
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 1: aren't going well for them. They don't feel like they're

584
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 1: focusing on their concerns. It's really pretty simple and straightforward.

585
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 1: And the candidates she's talking about, there, these Latina candidates

586
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: in that area. They are running relentlessly on gas prices,

587
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,719
Speaker 1: on inflation. So even though you know, I don't think

588
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 1: that their plan is good, I don't think their plan

589
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 1: will work. They're not even really talking about their plan

590
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 1: and their ads. They are at least talking about the

591
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 1: issues that these voters are saying, Hey, this is what

592
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 1: I am experiencing and this is what I care about

593
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 1: in my day to day life. I remember when South

594
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 1: Texas went for Trump or very swung to Trump by

595
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 1: a historic degree in twenty twenty. You know, we read

596
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 1: a lot of quotes and one that stuck with me was, look,

597
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 1: I got a check with the guy's name on it

598
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: and gas was cheap. And I remember thinking, like, that

599
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 1: is the best distillation ran of like why people vote.

600
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 1: He was like, look, I like Trump. He sent me

601
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 1: a check, gas is cheap while he was in office

602
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 1: and whatever, you know, worked for me. They're like, yeah,

603
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 1: immigration seems like an issue, but I'm just worried about myself.

604
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 1: Like that's how a lot of people vote in this country.

605
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 1: It's just for all the way that we always think

606
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: about X, Y, message, et cetera. Sometimes it just comes

607
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 1: down to the most absolute basics and that's what they

608
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 1: point to. I do also like what that guy was

609
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 1: saying about them being rich, because it's one of those

610
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 1: things that's just never acknowledged. Yeah, hold on, how does

611
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 1: that you know? Virginia like where I live, Mark Warner,

612
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 1: he's really half a billion dollars. I mean, in fairness,

613
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 1: Mark Warner was really freaking filthy rich before he got

614
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 1: to Congress. But there are others who show up in

615
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 1: Congress not already rich but not that rich, and then

616
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 1: they become like one hundred millionaire as well. There but

617
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 1: we just don't ask any quite. You know. Ron Johnson

618
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 1: literally is taking private jets like back and forth between

619
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 1: sky early. Is this normal? Like I don't. I don't

620
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 1: think so. And it's like we're all just supposed to

621
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: just sit back and be like, no, you know what,

622
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 1: it's all totally fine. It's not untoward whatsoever with the trading,

623
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 1: with becoming rich, and even afterwards, I mean they all

624
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 1: retire to these like fancy lives. It's like, why, what

625
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 1: exactly is so valuable about your time that you've spent

626
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 1: in Washington. I mean, I know the answer to that,

627
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 1: But I think most people can into it for themselves.

628
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 1: They never have to have worked here, never have to

629
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 1: have seen it themselves. They work through their everyday lives

630
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 1: and see exactly how little of a race that they get,

631
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 1: and they watch what happens here, and they're like, yeah,

632
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 1: this is bullshit, and I agree with them, it is

633
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 1: totally bullshit. And it also I mean, you know, then

634
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 1: they look at oh, and you're not you don't you

635
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 1: think you're badgering me about what my concern should be

636
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 1: And then I shouldn't care about my own like bank

637
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 1: account and ability to provide for myself and my family,

638
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 1: my kids, whatever. And meanwhile, you're up here like living

639
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 1: high on the hog. You certainly are looking after yourself.

640
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 1: So it fuel a reality that there is a massive

641
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 1: disconnect between politicians in Washington and what actually is happening

642
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 1: in people's lives. And Democrats by leaning one hundred percent

643
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 1: into abortion, yeah, you have a lot of voters who

644
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 1: care about the issue. And it's not that it's not important.

645
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: Of course it's important, but you you know, it's a

646
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 1: sort of level of condescension to say, no, no, no,

647
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 1: we're going to tell you which issue is the most important,

648
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,959
Speaker 1: and we're gonna not just ignore the thing that you

649
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 1: are saying over and over again is of most concern

650
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 1: to you. But there is, I mean, I see it

651
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 1: online all the time when you even suggest that Democrats

652
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: should be messaging more on the economy, like you get

653
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 1: basically called like a fascist enabler or whatever, and there's

654
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:45,239
Speaker 1: all this vitriol around being able to say, you know,

655
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 1: maybe we should actually listen to voters and meet them

656
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 1: where they are and try to address their concerns with

657
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 1: something really significant. You talked about the checks with Trump.

658
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 1: We also saw the checks with the Democrats. And I

659
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 1: brought this up a million times, but if you didn't

660
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 1: learn from they came from behind in these two Georgia

661
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 1: runoffs and they promised relentlessly like we are going to

662
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 1: write you checks. They're got to be checks. We're going

663
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 1: to do relief checks. And they won on that message,

664
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 1: and then they just instantly memory hold that that was

665
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 1: an effective strategy whatsoever. And we also saw in the

666
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: House with Nancy Pelosi like basically playing games with the

667
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 1: checks back in twenty twenty, you know, waters really punished

668
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 1: the Democratic caucus in the House that were narrowly able

669
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 1: to hold on to their majority. So, you know, to

670
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 1: end this section on the midterms, and we'll get to

671
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 1: Biden's speech, which is another conversation about the midterms. The

672
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 1: overall picture is just shifting towards Republicans. We talked about

673
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 1: the Senate Cook Political Report has also just shifted ten

674
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 1: seats to Republicans. In fact, I think since this shift

675
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 1: came out, they've shifted even a few more seats in

676
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 1: the direction of the Republicans. But you know, these are

677
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 1: all every single one of these districts, ten districts that

678
00:33:56,800 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 1: they shifted in the Republicans direction. They're all stricts that

679
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 1: Biden won by between eight and twenty points, eight and

680
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:11,240
Speaker 1: twenty points. So that tells you the type of danger

681
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 1: that they are in the House. Now, I've seen a

682
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 1: few polls that came out that actually have Democrats with

683
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 1: the lead on the Jerich ballot overall Republicans. You know,

684
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 1: in the average they certainly hold the lead, but I've

685
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 1: seen a few outliers. So if you want to hang

686
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 1: your hat on that and say, oh, maybe they're missing

687
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:27,800
Speaker 1: something that's going on here and it's going to ultimately

688
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 1: be different, maybe it's possible. But I can just tell

689
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 1: you looking at the macro numbers, looking at the numbers

690
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 1: that we showed you on white suburban women, looking at

691
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 1: what people are telling polsters their number one issue is

692
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 1: doesn't look good for Democrats, Crystal, and what are they

693
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 1: doing to address those concerns. Well, Biden gave a big

694
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,839
Speaker 1: speech last night on democracy, and you know, to tie

695
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:53,240
Speaker 1: this back to our previous segment with the More Perfect

696
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 1: Union video, Fashakir, who was Bernie's campaign manager and who's

697
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 1: now running More Perfect Union, actually went on TV and

698
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 1: was like before the speech, she was like, I think

699
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 1: they need to go back and rewrite it and talk

700
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 1: about the cost of living and how you're going to

701
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: address their concerns. They didn't take his advice. So here's

702
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 1: a little taste of one more time. We're going to

703
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 1: try to persuade voters that democracy is the thing that

704
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 1: they should be voting on and nothing else. Take listen.

705
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 1: The sailant tried to take Paul hostage. He woke him up,

706
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 1: he wanted to tie him up. The sailant ended up

707
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 1: using the hammer to smash Paul's skull. Thankfully, by the

708
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 1: grace of God, Paul survived. All this happened after the assault,

709
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 1: and it just if I hard to even say, it's

710
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 1: hard to even say. After the assailant entered the home

711
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:52,800
Speaker 1: asking where's Nancy. Where's Nancy? Those are the very same

712
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:55,760
Speaker 1: words used by the mob when they stormed the United States.

713
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: Capitol on January the sixth, So I had this team

714
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 1: pulled that particular SoundBite because with the Paul Pelosi tie in,

715
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 1: it was at least a little bit different than what

716
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 1: Democrats have been saying. But if you go and listen

717
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 1: to this speech, which wasn't actually that long, but you

718
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 1: don't really need to listen to it, it's the same rhetoric.

719
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 1: And I hate to sound callous about this, because I

720
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 1: actually really do care about the future democracy and about

721
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 1: people having a voice, which they don't feel like they

722
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 1: have right now, which I think if you listen to voters,

723
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 1: you will find out like they already feel like they

724
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:27,360
Speaker 1: don't really have much they in our great democracy. But

725
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 1: you know, if you care about this election, if this

726
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 1: election is existential, if there are massive I think the

727
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 1: majority of Republicans on the ballot and this election are

728
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: election deniers, that is all true, then the best thing

729
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: you could be doing is trying to persuade voters of

730
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,720
Speaker 1: over you by focusing on the issues that they're telling

731
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:47,320
Speaker 1: you they care about the most. I mean, what is

732
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,240
Speaker 1: it like three percent of voters that say that January

733
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 1: sixth of the number one issue, And yet I just

734
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 1: really can't wrap my head around it in terms of

735
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 1: a strategy. Here, this is your final pitch. He built

736
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 1: this as like this big speech. All the networks took it.

737
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 1: You know, this was clearly like the final pitch they

738
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 1: wanted to make. And I'm not saying that, you know,

739
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 1: Republican extremism on this issue hasn't hurt them some and

740
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 1: give Democrats somewhat of a chance, But you got a

741
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 1: close and how you're going to deliver for people on

742
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 1: the number one issue they care about. And instead it's

743
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 1: just like, let's talk about January six. Maybe if we

744
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 1: say January six ten more times, maybe finally people are

745
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:23,320
Speaker 1: going to listen to us. Well, it's very hollow, you know.

746
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,280
Speaker 1: Josh Barrow actually said this. Well, he says it, voters

747
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 1: reject Democrats' agenda on the record on issues including inflation, crime, immigration,

748
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 1: or abortion, they have no recourse at the ballot box.

749
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 1: They simply must vote for Democrats anyway, is the message,

750
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 1: at least until at such time as a Republican party

751
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 1: is run by the likes of Liz Changeing Adam Kissinger.

752
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 1: This actually amounts to telling voters they have already lost

753
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 1: their democracy. Well, what does that mean. And then also

754
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:47,800
Speaker 1: whenever you make the point that democracy is on the

755
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 1: ballot and then you lose, what are you saying? Are

756
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 1: you saying that democracy is over? Or is it democracy

757
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 1: in action? Is it capital D democracy the idea or

758
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 1: small D democracy the actual practice? This is this is

759
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 1: the thing you're trying to say, which is like part

760
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 1: of democracy is being responsive to voters, right, not just capitulating,

761
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 1: but being somewhat responsive to what the people are telling

762
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 1: you they care about. So you have voters in our

763
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:18,359
Speaker 1: democracy saying, I am being hurt by inflation. I think

764
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:21,799
Speaker 1: we're in a recession. I am concerned about this, and

765
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 1: it is kind of anti democratic to be like, you're wrong,

766
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 1: That's not the right issue to care about. That's what

767
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:32,279
Speaker 1: is driving me so insane about all of this. You know,

768
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 1: maybe even if Democrats did all the right things in

769
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 1: terms of this election and you know, lead to the

770
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,399
Speaker 1: messaging that san Greenberg has been encouraging the child tax

771
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 1: credits and taxing the rich and like offered a real

772
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,959
Speaker 1: material program, convinced people that there was something to gain

773
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 1: by voting for Democrats once again, maybe they would still

774
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 1: lose just because of history and economic wins and whatever.

775
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 1: But I'm telling you, Republicans gave them every chance to

776
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 1: be able to succeed. They have like shot themselves in

777
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 1: the foot fifty different ways with terrible, extreme crazy ass candidates,

778
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 1: terrible extreme, crazy ass economic plans, and instead they've just said,

779
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 1: you know what, We're going to go ninety percent on abortion,

780
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 1: ten percent on democracy, and you can just guess what

781
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 1: the economic plan is. And if you're not happy in

782
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 1: the current economy, then I guess you're going to pretty

783
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:21,320
Speaker 1: much expect that things are going to continue in this direction.

784
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:25,839
Speaker 1: It is absolutely maddening that they're so foolish, but I mean,

785
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 1: ultimately it's really not foolish. Like there's a reason why

786
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:30,440
Speaker 1: they don't like to lean into this type of politics

787
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: because material, if you make promises on, you know, some

788
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:38,919
Speaker 1: sort of economic program, then you actually have some accountability

789
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 1: and some need to deliver. Just like Biden was forced

790
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 1: into join the checks, forced into do the student loan

791
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 1: debt relief that he didn't really want to do. If

792
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:49,360
Speaker 1: you make really specific, concrete, material promises, you have to

793
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 1: follow through on, and they don't really want to do that, correct,

794
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:53,320
Speaker 1: They don't absolutely don't. You know, In many ways, I

795
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 1: almost think that the Democrats could learn something from the Republicans.

796
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 1: Many Republicans do want to cut Medicare and Social Security.

797
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:01,359
Speaker 1: They talk about it, but they don't actually talk about

798
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 1: it that much. And when they make their pitch, they

799
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 1: don't make that the pitch they'd make the pitch it

800
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 1: screw Joe bid Miler. Correct. But even though so this

801
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 1: is what listen. If you have a secondary or tertiary

802
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:15,880
Speaker 1: political goal relative to the relative to the voters preferences,

803
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:21,240
Speaker 1: it is political malpractice to lead with that tertiary political goal. Instead,

804
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 1: you should lead with whatever is going to get you votes,

805
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 1: and then when you're in office, you could do whatever

806
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:27,319
Speaker 1: you want. You could do that thing, and you can

807
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 1: also do this slightly more unpopular thing. And you know,

808
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 1: who knows, as we're all learning here throughout this election.

809
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:35,240
Speaker 1: Sometimes it doesn't matter if you have one tertiary political

810
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 1: position which is quite unpopular, as long as you do

811
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:39,800
Speaker 1: the top two political things at the top. So anyway,

812
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,839
Speaker 1: the whole point is that if you believe that democracy

813
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 1: hinges on you staying in office, then you should do

814
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:49,319
Speaker 1: everything humanly possible to stay in two winds. Right, And

815
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 1: you know this is just fundamentally I guess is the

816
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:54,280
Speaker 1: disagreement that I have with a lot of people whenever

817
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 1: you know they run, which is that I actually believe

818
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 1: much more in the voters. I think that they know

819
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:01,800
Speaker 1: exactly what the problem are. They have a far better

820
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 1: diagnosis of what's actually going on here relative to how

821
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:07,479
Speaker 1: you should tell them how to think. I mean, look,

822
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 1: I have many positions which I know are not popular,

823
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:12,839
Speaker 1: and I would never presume to tell people that they

824
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 1: should care about it. I'll tell you why I think

825
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 1: and care about them, but I would never say that

826
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 1: your grocery bill is less important than whatever I'm going

827
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 1: to tell you that it is, because it is not

828
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 1: out my place, nor should it ever be, even for

829
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:27,360
Speaker 1: a politician, for somebody who's inn office of anything. It

830
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:29,319
Speaker 1: should always be the opposite. It just reminds me of

831
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 1: remember the Mueller report came out, Yeah, I do, and

832
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 1: it was like, maybe if we like do it in

833
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 1: graphic novel for yes, then people are going to care

834
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 1: about it and see it the way we see it.

835
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 1: And it just feels like that with this speech as well.

836
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 1: It's like, maybe if we do it in a primetime

837
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:47,879
Speaker 1: speech a little bit before midterm elections and we tie in, Paul,

838
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:51,239
Speaker 1: but maybe this time this will be the thing that

839
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 1: actually galanizes people. And it's like, listen, guys, I agree,

840
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 1: it's important. I'm not trying to downplay it. But you

841
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:59,279
Speaker 1: have really clear indicators of what people are basing their

842
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:02,239
Speaker 1: vote on at this point, and you just continue to like,

843
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 1: willfully ignore it. So ultimately, good luck, good luck. We're

844
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:08,880
Speaker 1: going to see if it works as if the Democracy

845
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:14,360
Speaker 1: final pitch works out for you very very soon. Begging

846
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:17,239
Speaker 1: of the end of democracy, let's go ahead and put

847
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:20,359
Speaker 1: this up there. Elon Musk making some big needs over

848
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 1: at Twitter, Let's go ahead and put this up there.

849
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:25,760
Speaker 1: And Elon is saying that the eight dollars a month

850
00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 1: check system is fully going to be instituted. He tweets

851
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 1: Twitter's current Lords and Peasants system for who has or

852
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:34,719
Speaker 1: who doesn't have a blue check Marcus bullshit, power to

853
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 1: the people blue for eight dollars a month, price adjusted

854
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 1: by country proportion to purchasing power parity. You will also

855
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 1: get priority and replies, mentions, and search, which is essential

856
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 1: to defeat spam and scam ability to post long video

857
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:50,280
Speaker 1: and audio half as many ads paywall bypass or publishers

858
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 1: willing to work with us. This will give Twitter a

859
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 1: revenue stream to reward content creators. There will be a

860
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 1: secondary tag below the name for someone who is a

861
00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:00,319
Speaker 1: public figure, which is already the case for politicians. So

862
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:02,320
Speaker 1: it goes go and put the next one, which is

863
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 1: up there on the screen as well, just to continue

864
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 1: reading from what Elon is saying. At the same time

865
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 1: on the content moderation front, and this is where I'm

866
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 1: starting to get a little dubious about what's happening, he says.

867
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 1: I've been talking to civil society leaders like Jonathan Greenblatt

868
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 1: over at the ADL, Yaile Eisenstadt also at the ADL,

869
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:24,799
Speaker 1: some quote unquote civil society leaders. Anytime I hear that term,

870
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 1: I'm like, these are sound like very fake jobs. And

871
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 1: if you look at the rest of the people who

872
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 1: are charged there, you include people from the George W.

873
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 1: Bush Presidential Library and other democracy experts. So I'm just

874
00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 1: gonna go ahead and be pretty dubious of whatever the

875
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 1: hell that group is. And look, I've already said why,

876
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 1: I don't think eight dollars a month for a blue

877
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 1: check mark makes any sense. I have no action, and

878
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 1: that irony is is I'm not one of those people

879
00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 1: who thinks Twitter should be free. I think people should

880
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 1: have to be paid. H should have to pay, but

881
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 1: a hell of a lot more than eight dollars a

882
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:00,560
Speaker 1: month relative to the amount of followers. I've laid all

883
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 1: that out, and apparently they are looking into that. However,

884
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 1: let's put even that aside, because I don't even think

885
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:07,120
Speaker 1: it really matters. They're trying to frame it as a

886
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:09,919
Speaker 1: populist thing. We'll see. I mean, I'm curious to see

887
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 1: how many people will I actually pay for it. I

888
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 1: know how many people are going to pay for it,

889
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 1: because I'm how much curious. What do you think? Well,

890
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 1: I mean you look at like, I think it's analogous

891
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 1: to our business, where we have, you know, close to

892
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:23,879
Speaker 1: nine hundred thousand like YouTube subscribers and definitely not close

893
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 1: to that in terms of paid paid premium subscribers. Yes,

894
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 1: so there was a poll that was done that there

895
00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 1: were like ten percent of blue checks who said they

896
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 1: would pay to have their blue check. And that's probably

897
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:38,400
Speaker 1: the high water mark because it's very different to tell

898
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 1: a polster like yeah, in theory, I guess I pay

899
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:42,239
Speaker 1: for it. It's another thing to get out of your

900
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 1: credit card and put it in and you know, then

901
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 1: your credit card number gets last and gets changed like

902
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:50,359
Speaker 1: it's It's a totally different thing to then actually go

903
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:53,919
Speaker 1: and do the work to pay that eight dollars a month.

904
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,879
Speaker 1: So there's two metrics here with the Blue check plan.

905
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:00,920
Speaker 1: Number one is it a good business side and number

906
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 1: two is a good idea in terms of like the

907
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 1: free speech goals that we were told were at the

908
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 1: core of Elon's takeover of Twitter year. I think it

909
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 1: fails on both counts. I could be wrong on the

910
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 1: business side, but when you think about it, first of all,

911
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 1: how much money is really going to raise? What do

912
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 1: we find there's like three hundred and ninety thousand active

913
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:20,719
Speaker 1: blue check mask so ten percent, it's only three point

914
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 1: eight million a year. That's nothing. It's nothing as a

915
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:27,720
Speaker 1: drop in the bucket. Meanwhile, we know the big problem

916
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:29,879
Speaker 1: with Twitter that Elons one to you too, by the way,

917
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:32,440
Speaker 1: before this deal closed, is the fact that many of

918
00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:36,800
Speaker 1: their most active users, previously most active and largest users

919
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 1: are not using the platform anymore. Ninety percent of the

920
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,359
Speaker 1: content comes from ten percent of the users. Now, are

921
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 1: those all blue checks? No, but a disproportionate number of

922
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 1: them are, So you're like antagonizing the core group of

923
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 1: people that makes your platform, that is doing the most

924
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 1: content creation that makes your platform interesting and worthwhile you're

925
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 1: like antagonizing them and sort of forcing a further decline

926
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 1: in terms of the amount of content amount of engagement.

927
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 1: So I think it fails on the business front because

928
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:08,439
Speaker 1: those numbers are just like pathetic, and then you're antagonizing

929
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:10,880
Speaker 1: some of your key people. But I also think it

930
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 1: fails on the free speech front, especially when you start

931
00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:15,719
Speaker 1: talking about like, oh, and you can pay to get

932
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 1: priority in terms of your mentions and your replies. That

933
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 1: the best platform in terms of like actual free speech

934
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 1: and people being able to actually have a voice, which

935
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 1: is what Twitter was at its best, is neutral. Right

936
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:33,880
Speaker 1: the minute that you become like YouTube and you have

937
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 1: these algorithms in and you have some creators that get

938
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 1: better treatment than other creators, and you make it this

939
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:42,799
Speaker 1: sort of like pay to play system that is a

940
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:45,279
Speaker 1: hit to free speech, and not just because like it's

941
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 1: literally paid speech, but you know, it screws up the

942
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 1: ecosystem of making it like a neutral platform experience. So

943
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 1: the fact that they already had instituted this thing where

944
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 1: it's no longer just like, oh, what's you know, what's

945
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 1: the order of the tweets that came in that they're

946
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:03,759
Speaker 1: surfacing what we think that you're going to like. That

947
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:07,240
Speaker 1: leads to already a problem in terms of free speech.

948
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 1: And then when you add to this this new bluechech

949
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:11,760
Speaker 1: system where it's like you can pay to get favorable

950
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:15,680
Speaker 1: treatment in your mentions replies, that's an issue. The other

951
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:18,280
Speaker 1: thing that I would say about the blue check plan

952
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 1: is the blue check thing. It did become like this weird,

953
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:26,759
Speaker 1: sort of like status symbol situation. The original idea wasn't

954
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:28,840
Speaker 1: a bad idea, though, which is that on a platform

955
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:30,799
Speaker 1: where people can be anonymous and where you have bots,

956
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 1: where you have spam, where you have trolls, all this stuff,

957
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 1: the blue check was supposed to indicate this person is

958
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:39,000
Speaker 1: who they say they are. Now, reforming that system would

959
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 1: be a great idea. It'd be better if you add

960
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 1: more blue checks where you could see more clearly that

961
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 1: people are who they are advertising themselves to be. That

962
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:50,279
Speaker 1: would be an improvement. But instead, what you're doing is

963
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 1: shifting the blue check system to just basically be an

964
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 1: indication of who's willing to pay for clout So that's

965
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 1: why even though you know, for me eight dollars a month,

966
00:47:58,120 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 1: it wouldn't be a big deal, Like, there's no way

967
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 1: in hell I would pay for this, because ultimately I'm

968
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:03,799
Speaker 1: not trying to be like, oh, I'm the person who

969
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:05,320
Speaker 1: wants to pay for clout and let me get my

970
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:07,759
Speaker 1: blue check mark. I think it's gross. Well, I also

971
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:10,400
Speaker 1: just think that look from a business like, we're not

972
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 1: going to invest in that because we're not going to

973
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 1: get any value from it, right, which is like fundamentally

974
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 1: there is no actual value. Now, if there were actual value,

975
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 1: like if we weren't able to tweet, this gets to

976
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:21,760
Speaker 1: why I think Twitter for enterprise is a way better idea.

977
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 1: If we were not able to, let's say, promote our

978
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 1: stuff without paying, then yeah, I would pay, because we

979
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:28,920
Speaker 1: pay for anything whenever we need to, like access to

980
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 1: our direct audience like on Mailchimp or whatever. Like the

981
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:37,040
Speaker 1: point is is that Twitter itself is I think misunderstanding

982
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 1: the actual value. I've laid out this a million times.

983
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:41,880
Speaker 1: I won't labor the point. Let's go and put this

984
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:43,879
Speaker 1: next part up on the screen though, And this gets

985
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:46,400
Speaker 1: to why I think the content moderation is really a

986
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:49,439
Speaker 1: big problem and why they're not thinking one percent yet

987
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:52,440
Speaker 1: clearly about it. So there was a lot of kerfuffle

988
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:56,000
Speaker 1: online over the quote community Notes feature after the White

989
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 1: House tweeted out that seniors are getting the biggest increase

990
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 1: in their Social Secure checks in ten years through President

991
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 1: Spider Brydon's leadership. There was actually a fact check on

992
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:07,240
Speaker 1: it from a Community Notes that said seniors will receive

993
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:09,360
Speaker 1: that increase due to the annual cost of living a

994
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 1: judgment adjustment, which is based on inflation, aka nothing that

995
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:16,480
Speaker 1: Joe Biden has actually done. So Elon replied to that

996
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 1: for somebody who was celebrating the fact check and said

997
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 1: that the community knows features awesome. Our goal is to

998
00:49:21,080 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 1: make Twitter the most accurate source of information on Earth,

999
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 1: without regard to political affiliation. I actually take a great

1000
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 1: issue with that because even though I enjoy the fact checked,

1001
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 1: here's what I said, all fact checking or context is

1002
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,799
Speaker 1: editorial or political in nature. If when you pick or

1003
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:41,400
Speaker 1: choose who or what or how to fact check, it

1004
00:49:41,520 --> 00:49:44,760
Speaker 1: is a fool's Errand because the original problem at Twitter

1005
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:48,120
Speaker 1: was the editorial choice of ban Trump but put a

1006
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 1: label whatever, and it also failed spectacularly at Facebook. In

1007
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:56,439
Speaker 1: my opinion, the best policy is to just simply let

1008
00:49:56,480 --> 00:50:00,080
Speaker 1: people say anything that they want within the bounds of

1009
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 1: the law, and then let others decide whether it's true

1010
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:06,319
Speaker 1: or not, as in, you or I are welcome to

1011
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:08,239
Speaker 1: reply and say, hey, this is bullshit and we can

1012
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:10,320
Speaker 1: make fun of you. Yeah on our showt it reply

1013
00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:12,839
Speaker 1: to it. You can look through those exactly what other

1014
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:15,920
Speaker 1: people are saying and guess what The side effect actually

1015
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:19,840
Speaker 1: is that the most accurate information and true information comes

1016
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 1: from the total discussion around the issue at hand, which

1017
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:27,720
Speaker 1: is that everybody can say that the White House tweet

1018
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 1: is a lie because of X context. Why context. We

1019
00:50:30,520 --> 00:50:32,920
Speaker 1: can explain it in a full twenty minute segment here

1020
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 1: on Breaking Points if we want, or we can reply

1021
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:37,479
Speaker 1: to it with a snarky tweet as well. Twitter should

1022
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:40,279
Speaker 1: never be in the business of picking or choosing what

1023
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:42,399
Speaker 1: is true or what is not. I believe that, by

1024
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:44,799
Speaker 1: the way, for all regimes, even the Iranians. I'm like, yeah,

1025
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:46,920
Speaker 1: let the iatol on Twitter. I'd rather am there than

1026
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:48,719
Speaker 1: not be there. Yeah, I'd rather hear what he has

1027
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:51,319
Speaker 1: to say. Agreed. Yeah, I mean this is where there

1028
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:54,160
Speaker 1: gets to be a real direct conflict between the free

1029
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 1: the purported free speech goals and the business goals and Twitter.

1030
00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:01,280
Speaker 1: You know, there's more and more reporting about precarious financial

1031
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 1: position they're in. Their interest expense with the new debt

1032
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:07,719
Speaker 1: is going to balloon to about a billion dollars a year.

1033
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:10,480
Speaker 1: Companies operations last year only generated about six hundred and

1034
00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:13,799
Speaker 1: thirty million in cash flow. Reports that Elon is set

1035
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:16,319
Speaker 1: to zach about fifty percent of the workforce, which I

1036
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:19,520
Speaker 1: understand given the financial too strips that they're in right now.

1037
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:22,920
Speaker 1: But you know, what you're talking about is what would

1038
00:51:22,920 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 1: be good in terms of making this a neutral platform,

1039
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:28,760
Speaker 1: in terms of like it being the digital town square

1040
00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:31,120
Speaker 1: and free speech concerns and all of those sorts of things.

1041
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 1: They seem to feel that as in conflict. And I

1042
00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:36,239
Speaker 1: don't think that they're wrong with the goals of making

1043
00:51:36,320 --> 00:51:39,120
Speaker 1: Twitter profitable, which has to still worry a lot about

1044
00:51:39,120 --> 00:51:41,160
Speaker 1: what advertisers are going to think about this, because you

1045
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 1: are going to make up the advertiser cash flow with

1046
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:44,839
Speaker 1: your like four million dollars. You're going to squeeze out

1047
00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:46,880
Speaker 1: a blue jat. And that's exactly why I was worried

1048
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:49,879
Speaker 1: when you start meeting with the ADL and all these folks. Listen, folks,

1049
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:51,839
Speaker 1: I'm not saying the ADEL is always bad, but they

1050
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 1: have been very censorious and have been now for over

1051
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:56,719
Speaker 1: a decade, which I have a great, big problem. Yeah,

1052
00:51:56,719 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 1: color of change, the change that robins. Look, this is

1053
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:00,839
Speaker 1: the issue, which is that when you meeting with these people,

1054
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 1: if you're even bowing or giving them a foot in

1055
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:06,320
Speaker 1: the door, they will always go on behalf of censorship,

1056
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:09,840
Speaker 1: and they will always prioritize and pressure advertisers to not

1057
00:52:09,920 --> 00:52:11,920
Speaker 1: advertise with you if you do not go along with

1058
00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:15,040
Speaker 1: their basically blackmail political agenda. So when I saw that

1059
00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:17,759
Speaker 1: he's meeting with these people and considering, you know, this

1060
00:52:17,800 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 1: whole community notes feature, I'm like, man, you're really misunderstanding.

1061
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:23,160
Speaker 1: In my opinion, again, look, he's the guy who owns

1062
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 1: the company, not me, Which is that if you actually

1063
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:31,080
Speaker 1: want to achieve free speech, good debate, and good discourse, frankly,

1064
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:34,360
Speaker 1: it's maybe uncomfortable sometimes you just got to let people

1065
00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:38,239
Speaker 1: say whatever. Yeah, but again, the profit motive, more than

1066
00:52:38,320 --> 00:52:41,239
Speaker 1: meeting with any of these people, the profit motive is

1067
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 1: the problem, and that's it. I think it's impossible to

1068
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:46,399
Speaker 1: square the circle, but you know, maybe they'll figure it out.

1069
00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 1: He's smarter than I am, so I would wish him

1070
00:52:48,680 --> 00:52:51,439
Speaker 1: the best. Okay, on now to Ukraine. Let's go ahead

1071
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 1: and put this up there on the screen. Really interesting

1072
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 1: essay by Charles Kupchin. Now why does that matter? He

1073
00:52:56,800 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 1: is both a professor of international relations at Georgetown University

1074
00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:03,040
Speaker 1: important for our purposes, senior fellow at the Council on

1075
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 1: Foreign Relations, which is like the establishment of the establishment

1076
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 1: in foreign affairs, and then even more so, riding in

1077
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 1: the New York Times with a headline which you would

1078
00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 1: never have seen before, called It's time to bring Russia

1079
00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:19,239
Speaker 1: and Ukraine to the negotiating table. So here's what he

1080
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:22,240
Speaker 1: opens with. The war in Ukraine is dangerously escalating. Ukraine

1081
00:53:22,480 --> 00:53:24,520
Speaker 1: is advancing on the battlefield and is growing only more

1082
00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:27,240
Speaker 1: determined to expel Russian troops. In the meantime, the Kremlin

1083
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:31,240
Speaker 1: reinforces its beleaguered forces in eastern Ukraine pounds Ukrainian cities. Meanwhile,

1084
00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:33,280
Speaker 1: the United States and its allies are sending more weapons

1085
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 1: to Ukraine, Prepared as the g seven democracies real nity

1086
00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:38,400
Speaker 1: states to stand firmly for as long as it takes.

1087
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 1: Ukraine has put up a staunch and inspiring defense of

1088
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:43,720
Speaker 1: its sovereignty. But the risk of a wider war between

1089
00:53:43,800 --> 00:53:46,319
Speaker 1: NATO and Russia is rising by the day, as is

1090
00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:49,080
Speaker 1: the risk that economic blowback from a prolonged war would

1091
00:53:49,160 --> 00:53:52,240
Speaker 1: undermined American democracy. It is time for the United States

1092
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:55,240
Speaker 1: and its allies to get directly involved in shaping Ukraine's

1093
00:53:55,239 --> 00:53:59,959
Speaker 1: strategic objectives, managing the conflict, and seeking a diplomatic end game.

1094
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:02,560
Speaker 1: So the rest of the op ed is very, very

1095
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:06,560
Speaker 1: worth reading. What I enjoy about this essay. It's actually

1096
00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:09,399
Speaker 1: framed in center left terms, right, so it's like, well,

1097
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:11,360
Speaker 1: the idea that a right wing party would win is

1098
00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:14,800
Speaker 1: anti democratic. But he's saying like, well, the economic wins

1099
00:54:15,040 --> 00:54:18,120
Speaker 1: are actually to your detriment, if that's something what you

1100
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:20,759
Speaker 1: care about. He doesn't even mention nuclear weapons there. He

1101
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:23,960
Speaker 1: talks about the quote wider war, about the proximity and

1102
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:27,759
Speaker 1: the prospect of NATO and other countries of miscalculation. And

1103
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:29,560
Speaker 1: the reason why I think it's important is that it

1104
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:34,640
Speaker 1: highlights actually an inspiring story about why diplomacy and talking

1105
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:38,680
Speaker 1: to your enemies even when it sucks, is very important.

1106
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there. The next part, which is

1107
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:44,760
Speaker 1: that from Max set On of the Financial Times highlighted

1108
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:47,280
Speaker 1: this quote from a New York Times story, which says

1109
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:52,239
Speaker 1: official say phone calls between Western and Russian counterparts late

1110
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:56,560
Speaker 1: last month helped ease nuclear tensions. A speech by Putin

1111
00:54:56,600 --> 00:54:58,920
Speaker 1: in which he denied that Moscow was prepared to use

1112
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:02,399
Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon further lowered the temperature. So why does

1113
00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:05,399
Speaker 1: that matter because that piece which he's quoting that from

1114
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:09,880
Speaker 1: actually comes from US officials compiling intelligence and briefing it

1115
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:12,520
Speaker 1: to the President of the United States that Russian military

1116
00:55:12,719 --> 00:55:16,880
Speaker 1: military leaders were very seriously discussing the use of tactical

1117
00:55:16,960 --> 00:55:20,080
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons in Ukraine. So contrary to all of the

1118
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 1: He's bluffing and all of that, their most senior military

1119
00:55:23,880 --> 00:55:27,960
Speaker 1: generals were actually saying, no, we actually might use we

1120
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:30,080
Speaker 1: maybe should we should do it, maybe we shouldn't, we

1121
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:33,800
Speaker 1: should present nuclear options to President Putin. Now ultimately Putin,

1122
00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:36,160
Speaker 1: I mean, look, he says, he says, of course he

1123
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:38,120
Speaker 1: would not use it. He the city would have made Ukraine.

1124
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:41,080
Speaker 1: So who knows. It's like not exactly the most credibility.

1125
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:43,560
Speaker 1: But the point is is that at the highest level

1126
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 1: of the Russian military, the CIA and others were saying

1127
00:55:47,440 --> 00:55:51,359
Speaker 1: that they were having serious discussions around nuclear weapons use.

1128
00:55:51,480 --> 00:55:54,000
Speaker 1: Even more troubling, by the way in this piece is

1129
00:55:54,040 --> 00:55:56,719
Speaker 1: that the whole idea of Americans would have a heads

1130
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:59,680
Speaker 1: up it's actually completely fake, which is that we apparently

1131
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 1: don't have any real insight into the Russian nuclear arsenal

1132
00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:06,920
Speaker 1: beyond like a very cursory look, and in any terms

1133
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:11,399
Speaker 1: of warnings would actually probably come after usage. We'd be like, hey, sir,

1134
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:15,040
Speaker 1: there is no forward warning. Yeah, because that was one

1135
00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:18,200
Speaker 1: of the things that in every article that talked about

1136
00:56:18,200 --> 00:56:21,200
Speaker 1: the possibility of putting using tactic nuclear weapon, they make

1137
00:56:21,200 --> 00:56:24,560
Speaker 1: sure we've seen no signs, and officials as sure say

1138
00:56:24,560 --> 00:56:26,239
Speaker 1: we would know in advance, and now it's like, no,

1139
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 1: we probably wouldn't know until that shit happened. Ye, So

1140
00:56:28,600 --> 00:56:32,719
Speaker 1: that's that's cool. It was interesting to me too, first

1141
00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:34,960
Speaker 1: of all, on that first up, ed really go and

1142
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:36,800
Speaker 1: read the whole thing, because he also goes through I

1143
00:56:36,840 --> 00:56:41,400
Speaker 1: think this is very useful, here's what a negotiated diplomatic

1144
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 1: settlement could actually look like. To get to that level

1145
00:56:44,719 --> 00:56:48,239
Speaker 1: of concrete specificity of like, here's the outlines of what

1146
00:56:48,280 --> 00:56:50,759
Speaker 1: a my deal could potentially look like, and here are

1147
00:56:50,760 --> 00:56:52,080
Speaker 1: the trade offs, and here are the parts that are

1148
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:54,719
Speaker 1: really hard, really useful to go through all of that.

1149
00:56:55,719 --> 00:56:58,040
Speaker 1: The other thing that was interesting to me is after

1150
00:56:58,120 --> 00:57:00,279
Speaker 1: this piece came out in the New York Times, where

1151
00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:04,880
Speaker 1: they're like, they were discussing it according to our intelligence community,

1152
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:09,799
Speaker 1: and actually it was the communications between US leadership and

1153
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,560
Speaker 1: Russian leadership which had not been happening, and even though

1154
00:57:12,560 --> 00:57:14,839
Speaker 1: there was all this weird like oh, Ukraine, dirty bomb

1155
00:57:14,920 --> 00:57:18,240
Speaker 1: or whatever, those communications helped to pull them back from

1156
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:20,960
Speaker 1: the brink. Something else we've been saying this whole time

1157
00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:23,480
Speaker 1: is like, you have to be in communication. During the

1158
00:57:23,520 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 1: Cold War, there was communication, constant communication that really really

1159
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 1: matters in terms of protecting the globe's safety. So that's

1160
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 1: one thing very interesting to me. Right after this comes out,

1161
00:57:34,320 --> 00:57:38,080
Speaker 1: CNN gets a different leak from the deep state that's like, well,

1162
00:57:38,120 --> 00:57:41,320
Speaker 1: we didn't really have confidence in that intelligence product, and

1163
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:44,040
Speaker 1: there were disputes about whether or not that was real.

1164
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:47,600
Speaker 1: So definitely there were factors in there, factions in there

1165
00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:51,040
Speaker 1: who wanted to downplay this report. They say the assessment

1166
00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:54,360
Speaker 1: drafted by the National Intelligence Council is not a high

1167
00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:58,120
Speaker 1: confidence product, and it's not raw intelligence but rather analysis.

1168
00:57:58,280 --> 00:58:00,680
Speaker 1: Multiple people who have read it told CIEN for that

1169
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 1: reason some officials believe the conversations reflecting the document may

1170
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:07,280
Speaker 1: have been taken out of context, don't necessarily indicate the

1171
00:58:07,320 --> 00:58:09,840
Speaker 1: Russias preparing to use a nuclear weapon. So somebody once

1172
00:58:09,880 --> 00:58:12,560
Speaker 1: again trying to be like, no, no, no, nuclear web,

1173
00:58:12,680 --> 00:58:15,640
Speaker 1: they're not even thinking about that. Don't even worry about that,

1174
00:58:15,720 --> 00:58:19,200
Speaker 1: because that then justifies the continued direction that of US policies.

1175
00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:21,600
Speaker 1: I would highlight the words of Kevin Rudd for those

1176
00:58:21,640 --> 00:58:24,120
Speaker 1: who don't know, is the former PM of Australia. Why

1177
00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:27,040
Speaker 1: does that matter? Well, Kevin Rudd was a member of

1178
00:58:27,080 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 1: the Five Eyes intelligence sharing Agreement, which is the most

1179
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:34,560
Speaker 1: sensitive US intelligence shared amongst Western partners. Now, he tweets

1180
00:58:34,560 --> 00:58:37,400
Speaker 1: in response to this news quote, this is dangerous. US

1181
00:58:37,440 --> 00:58:41,840
Speaker 1: intelligence does not brief like this unless threat is credible. Remember,

1182
00:58:42,080 --> 00:58:45,560
Speaker 1: few believed US warnings of impending Russian invasion. Time for

1183
00:58:45,600 --> 00:58:49,320
Speaker 1: Beijing to urgently intervene and stop Russian nuclear madness. So

1184
00:58:49,800 --> 00:58:52,960
Speaker 1: I mean, look, the former PM of Australia thinks it's

1185
00:58:53,080 --> 00:58:55,880
Speaker 1: very serious because he also used to once upon a

1186
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:58,919
Speaker 1: time get briefings like this, and we have very very

1187
00:58:59,120 --> 00:59:03,000
Speaker 1: the highest level intelligence sharing happens within the Five Eyes Alliance.

1188
00:59:03,000 --> 00:59:06,360
Speaker 1: So the point is that people took it seriously for

1189
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:08,200
Speaker 1: it to get brief to the president. That means it's

1190
00:59:08,240 --> 00:59:11,919
Speaker 1: incredibly serious. The idea forward warning and all that is fake.

1191
00:59:11,960 --> 00:59:14,040
Speaker 1: And I just want to highlight the fact that those

1192
00:59:14,040 --> 00:59:16,880
Speaker 1: conversations happen is all really you and I have ever

1193
00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:19,520
Speaker 1: been saying from this beginning, we're like, look, support Ukraine.

1194
00:59:19,640 --> 00:59:22,480
Speaker 1: Nobody saying you shouldn't support Ukraine. We should support Ukraine

1195
00:59:22,600 --> 00:59:26,600
Speaker 1: while keeping in mind all of our red lines. In fact,

1196
00:59:26,800 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 1: I think that one of the things that he writes

1197
00:59:28,280 --> 00:59:30,040
Speaker 1: in this op ed which is so critical is quote

1198
00:59:30,960 --> 00:59:33,800
Speaker 1: Ukraine battlefield success could go too far. If the defense

1199
00:59:33,840 --> 00:59:35,920
Speaker 1: of Ukraine is not worth US boots on the ground,

1200
00:59:36,080 --> 00:59:38,520
Speaker 1: the return of the Dunboss and crime out to Ukrainian

1201
00:59:38,560 --> 00:59:42,160
Speaker 1: control is not worth risking a new World war. Imagine

1202
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:46,880
Speaker 1: thinking that that's controversial, But we need to discuss and

1203
00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:49,760
Speaker 1: think about things in terms of parody and have to

1204
00:59:49,760 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 1: be able to have a cool head. Negotiating with your

1205
00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:56,720
Speaker 1: enemies really sucks. I really encourage everybody to go and

1206
00:59:56,920 --> 01:00:01,280
Speaker 1: watch the new It's All Quiet on Western Front on Netflix.

1207
01:00:01,360 --> 01:00:03,400
Speaker 1: I saw it in theaters, but they actually added some

1208
01:00:03,480 --> 01:00:05,400
Speaker 1: parts in the movie that weren't in the book about

1209
01:00:05,440 --> 01:00:08,840
Speaker 1: the actual negotiation between the German Democratic Republic, the new

1210
01:00:09,040 --> 01:00:13,120
Speaker 1: newly formed GDR and the actual French forces and how

1211
01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:16,640
Speaker 1: difficult it was to capitulate by the Germans. But there

1212
01:00:16,680 --> 01:00:19,680
Speaker 1: was the lead negotiator was like, every hour that this

1213
01:00:19,720 --> 01:00:23,280
Speaker 1: war goes on, thousands are dying. And it was the

1214
01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:26,280
Speaker 1: juxtapose of the elites in this train carriage. I don't

1215
01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 1: want to ruin it for anybody, but they're basically like

1216
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:30,800
Speaker 1: living an opulent lifestyle. And then they would flash back

1217
01:00:30,840 --> 01:00:33,800
Speaker 1: to the actual Western front of you know, guys with

1218
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:35,680
Speaker 1: rats crawling out of their eyes and dying in their

1219
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:38,080
Speaker 1: month anyway, I mean, that's the reality of what these

1220
01:00:38,120 --> 01:00:41,080
Speaker 1: things are. So the point is that they were highlighting

1221
01:00:41,360 --> 01:00:44,000
Speaker 1: and it shows you how difficult it is to negotiate

1222
01:00:44,000 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 1: with your enemies, but why it's critical and why it

1223
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:48,840
Speaker 1: has to happen in the first place, and the reason

1224
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 1: why we covered it all. This is a good segue

1225
01:00:52,080 --> 01:00:55,400
Speaker 1: to something which is being totally ignored. Once upon a

1226
01:00:55,440 --> 01:00:58,360
Speaker 1: time this would have been front page news because we

1227
01:00:58,400 --> 01:01:00,880
Speaker 1: are on the on the brink of a major war

1228
01:01:01,000 --> 01:01:04,360
Speaker 1: in East Asia, of which nobody apparently appears to be

1229
01:01:04,440 --> 01:01:07,240
Speaker 1: taking very seriously because it would just be inconvenient for

1230
01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:10,240
Speaker 1: everybody's picture of the global narrative. So let's go ahead

1231
01:01:10,240 --> 01:01:12,200
Speaker 1: and put up the next one on the screen from

1232
01:01:12,240 --> 01:01:15,200
Speaker 1: part two. Please the Reuter's tear sheet about North Korea.

1233
01:01:15,440 --> 01:01:19,440
Speaker 1: This is very important. North Korea has fired twenty three missiles,

1234
01:01:19,640 --> 01:01:22,400
Speaker 1: with one landing off the South Korean coast for the

1235
01:01:22,440 --> 01:01:27,000
Speaker 1: first time ever. This comes from a slew of different

1236
01:01:27,120 --> 01:01:31,160
Speaker 1: missile launches by the North Koreans, both towards the Japanese

1237
01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:34,480
Speaker 1: towards South Korean waters in a response to South Korean

1238
01:01:34,520 --> 01:01:39,560
Speaker 1: military drills with the United States and spawning major panic

1239
01:01:39,880 --> 01:01:43,840
Speaker 1: in Japan. Crystal they did overflies of Japan for the

1240
01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:47,560
Speaker 1: second time since twenty seventeen. Can you imagine watching television

1241
01:01:47,840 --> 01:01:50,760
Speaker 1: evening television and the emergency system, you know, whenever there's

1242
01:01:50,760 --> 01:01:53,120
Speaker 1: like a flood warning on your phone, imagine it says

1243
01:01:53,160 --> 01:01:57,160
Speaker 1: missile incoming, Take shelter, Take shelter now. That is what

1244
01:01:57,240 --> 01:02:00,760
Speaker 1: our Japanese allies are dealing with on a daily basis now.

1245
01:02:01,080 --> 01:02:04,560
Speaker 1: And this is a real bad situation because right now,

1246
01:02:04,640 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 1: the South Koreans, let's go and put this up there,

1247
01:02:06,800 --> 01:02:10,560
Speaker 1: have fired three air to ground missiles from warplanes into

1248
01:02:10,640 --> 01:02:14,680
Speaker 1: the sea north of the disputed border, on top of

1249
01:02:15,160 --> 01:02:18,520
Speaker 1: US military exercises which are happening. So why does this

1250
01:02:18,680 --> 01:02:20,439
Speaker 1: matter in the context of what we were just talking

1251
01:02:20,440 --> 01:02:24,040
Speaker 1: about in Ukraine at all? Well, Donald Trump, I believe,

1252
01:02:24,240 --> 01:02:28,200
Speaker 1: made one of the most significant diplomatic breakthroughs of all

1253
01:02:28,280 --> 01:02:31,560
Speaker 1: time in modern US history whenever he said, screw it,

1254
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:35,240
Speaker 1: I'm meeting with Kim Jong un with zero preconditions because

1255
01:02:35,240 --> 01:02:38,360
Speaker 1: the other option was war. That doesn't sound very good

1256
01:02:38,640 --> 01:02:40,960
Speaker 1: from everything I have read. The North Koreans have a

1257
01:02:41,000 --> 01:02:46,240
Speaker 1: major stockpile of horrific chemical weapons vx saren gas on

1258
01:02:46,320 --> 01:02:49,720
Speaker 1: top of massive ammunition stockpile. They could level a city

1259
01:02:49,720 --> 01:02:51,479
Speaker 1: of Soul in like forty five minutes. Like it would

1260
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:54,080
Speaker 1: be horrific. Tens of millions of people would die, on

1261
01:02:54,160 --> 01:02:56,800
Speaker 1: top of tens of thousands of America of the South

1262
01:02:56,840 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 1: Korean population within forty five minutes of the DMC. We

1263
01:03:01,320 --> 01:03:04,840
Speaker 1: also have tens of thousands of troops, American soldiers who

1264
01:03:04,880 --> 01:03:07,160
Speaker 1: are on I think it's Osan Air Force Base, and

1265
01:03:07,240 --> 01:03:09,520
Speaker 1: others who's basically their job is to die in the

1266
01:03:09,560 --> 01:03:12,680
Speaker 1: middle of one of these conflicts. That's how grave the

1267
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:16,000
Speaker 1: military plans for all of this look like, well, we

1268
01:03:16,040 --> 01:03:18,640
Speaker 1: had two options in twenty seventeen. Kim Jong un is

1269
01:03:18,680 --> 01:03:20,320
Speaker 1: not giving up his nuclear program. He's not going to

1270
01:03:20,360 --> 01:03:23,120
Speaker 1: stop firing missiles because he wants entry into the global

1271
01:03:23,120 --> 01:03:26,680
Speaker 1: economy because his country is suffering mostly because of him.

1272
01:03:26,680 --> 01:03:29,680
Speaker 1: But he wants access to global markets and end of sanctions,

1273
01:03:29,800 --> 01:03:32,360
Speaker 1: so he's willing to go all in and risk war

1274
01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:35,400
Speaker 1: for that. We had to decide, well, do we want

1275
01:03:35,440 --> 01:03:37,400
Speaker 1: the Korean Peninsula to be wiped off the face of

1276
01:03:37,400 --> 01:03:39,440
Speaker 1: the earth or should we just try and put an

1277
01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:41,960
Speaker 1: end to this thing, this madness. Trump went to go

1278
01:03:42,000 --> 01:03:46,680
Speaker 1: meet with him at the total like he was hailed

1279
01:03:46,800 --> 01:03:50,720
Speaker 1: as like legitimizing this dictator. He was said to be

1280
01:03:50,880 --> 01:03:55,080
Speaker 1: abandoning the long standing US position that we must have

1281
01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:57,880
Speaker 1: denuclearization as a pretext for talks. And he's like, no,

1282
01:03:57,960 --> 01:03:59,040
Speaker 1: I'm not going to do that. I'm just going to

1283
01:03:59,120 --> 01:04:01,280
Speaker 1: go and meet with the guy. And guess what. They

1284
01:04:01,280 --> 01:04:03,760
Speaker 1: didn't do anything for five years, And it was great.

1285
01:04:03,960 --> 01:04:07,400
Speaker 1: It was actually very nice to not have random ballistic

1286
01:04:07,440 --> 01:04:10,120
Speaker 1: missiles flying into the sea in East Asia, which could

1287
01:04:10,160 --> 01:04:13,440
Speaker 1: even know. One issue is that they fire these missiles

1288
01:04:13,440 --> 01:04:16,440
Speaker 1: into the air and they don't give any heads up

1289
01:04:16,520 --> 01:04:19,280
Speaker 1: to like commercial airline pilots. So there's a real theor

1290
01:04:19,360 --> 01:04:20,760
Speaker 1: that they can just shoot a plane out of the

1291
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:26,040
Speaker 1: sky accidentally, very real consequences. The point is that Trump

1292
01:04:26,160 --> 01:04:29,439
Speaker 1: bucked the Washington establishment by saying, no, I'm just gonna

1293
01:04:29,440 --> 01:04:31,600
Speaker 1: meet with them. And also even though he ended up

1294
01:04:31,640 --> 01:04:34,720
Speaker 1: also not dropping denuclearization from the demand of North Korea,

1295
01:04:34,960 --> 01:04:38,280
Speaker 1: we got them talking, they were exchanging letters. Mike Pompeo

1296
01:04:38,440 --> 01:04:41,000
Speaker 1: was over there all the time, and we were presenting

1297
01:04:41,040 --> 01:04:43,360
Speaker 1: the North Koreans. We're like, hey, look, you can have

1298
01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:46,320
Speaker 1: a great life if you guys give up your nukes. Now, Ultimately,

1299
01:04:46,600 --> 01:04:48,840
Speaker 1: I personally think that's just not on the table at all.

1300
01:04:48,960 --> 01:04:50,760
Speaker 1: They would personally like if I were them, I would

1301
01:04:50,800 --> 01:04:53,200
Speaker 1: never give it up. As they always say in their negotiations.

1302
01:04:53,320 --> 01:04:55,760
Speaker 1: Look what happened to ATAVI. Yeah, they're like, you guys,

1303
01:04:55,920 --> 01:04:57,720
Speaker 1: you know, he died get with a ram rod up

1304
01:04:57,720 --> 01:04:59,440
Speaker 1: his ass. He's like, that's not gonna happen to me.

1305
01:04:59,760 --> 01:05:02,880
Speaker 1: So that's something that they are wholly wedded to. The

1306
01:05:02,960 --> 01:05:05,800
Speaker 1: point is is that this shows you because the Biden

1307
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:09,000
Speaker 1: administration immediately reverted back to the Obama position, which is no,

1308
01:05:09,120 --> 01:05:10,720
Speaker 1: we're not going to talk to them at all, and

1309
01:05:10,760 --> 01:05:12,280
Speaker 1: it's up to them whether they want to start a

1310
01:05:12,280 --> 01:05:16,000
Speaker 1: war or not. Yeah, this demonstrates the power and lasting

1311
01:05:16,360 --> 01:05:19,720
Speaker 1: legacy of diplomacy. We had five years of relative peace

1312
01:05:20,160 --> 01:05:23,400
Speaker 1: in East Asia even though nothing happened, and it all

1313
01:05:23,680 --> 01:05:26,840
Speaker 1: talking was all that happened. It also shows you, I mean,

1314
01:05:27,120 --> 01:05:30,800
Speaker 1: you know, Americans have a finite ability to consume news.

1315
01:05:30,840 --> 01:05:34,000
Speaker 1: There's a finite ability of the news media to you know,

1316
01:05:34,200 --> 01:05:37,320
Speaker 1: focus in on any particular story. And you know, they're

1317
01:05:37,360 --> 01:05:39,680
Speaker 1: all consumed with the Ukraine War. It's a very important story.

1318
01:05:39,720 --> 01:05:42,920
Speaker 1: We're very consumed as well possibility of nuclear war. But

1319
01:05:43,480 --> 01:05:47,520
Speaker 1: you know, don't forget that we have other incredibly dangerous,

1320
01:05:47,680 --> 01:05:53,560
Speaker 1: volatile situations unfolding North Korea, Taiwan, other places, and you know,

1321
01:05:53,560 --> 01:05:55,000
Speaker 1: we don't want to let that fall off the table.

1322
01:05:55,040 --> 01:05:57,200
Speaker 1: And Obama handed off to Trump. That was the thing

1323
01:05:57,200 --> 01:06:01,080
Speaker 1: that he said he thought would be the the biggest threat,

1324
01:06:01,200 --> 01:06:04,760
Speaker 1: the largest danger, the most sort of like consuming issue

1325
01:06:04,880 --> 01:06:08,840
Speaker 1: on the international stage. So you know, that has not

1326
01:06:08,920 --> 01:06:12,960
Speaker 1: gone away. And even after those first twenty three missiles

1327
01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:15,800
Speaker 1: and then South Korea does their you know, sort of retaliation,

1328
01:06:16,240 --> 01:06:21,160
Speaker 1: North Korea continued then afterwards and launched four more, including

1329
01:06:21,320 --> 01:06:25,200
Speaker 1: an ICBM which they say that test failed, but you know,

1330
01:06:25,440 --> 01:06:28,600
Speaker 1: further escalating even after the initial launch of those twenty

1331
01:06:28,600 --> 01:06:32,160
Speaker 1: three missiles. So is a very, very, very dangerous situation.

1332
01:06:32,280 --> 01:06:35,040
Speaker 1: And look, maybe I'll say something controversial which will piss

1333
01:06:35,040 --> 01:06:37,040
Speaker 1: off a lot of the Euros that watch our show.

1334
01:06:37,320 --> 01:06:41,280
Speaker 1: Japan and South Korea are fifteen thousand times more valuable

1335
01:06:41,320 --> 01:06:43,600
Speaker 1: to the US economy, to the US way of life,

1336
01:06:43,640 --> 01:06:46,800
Speaker 1: and as allies than any place in Eastern Europe. And

1337
01:06:47,080 --> 01:06:49,520
Speaker 1: I know it's difficult to talk that way, but just

1338
01:06:49,600 --> 01:06:51,960
Speaker 1: look at a chart of global GDP and look at

1339
01:06:51,960 --> 01:06:58,080
Speaker 1: trading relationships, longtime alliances, military spending, commitment actually to the

1340
01:06:58,200 --> 01:07:00,600
Speaker 1: US military alliance, to the US way of life, the

1341
01:07:00,680 --> 01:07:05,400
Speaker 1: US global order visa v. China, Asia is look fifty

1342
01:07:05,480 --> 01:07:08,640
Speaker 1: something percent of world GDP. And I think there's a

1343
01:07:08,680 --> 01:07:11,160
Speaker 1: real chauvinism the way that we talk about allies and

1344
01:07:11,200 --> 01:07:13,959
Speaker 1: the way that we look at the world considering how

1345
01:07:14,080 --> 01:07:17,400
Speaker 1: important this part of the world is. Maybe just because

1346
01:07:17,400 --> 01:07:19,320
Speaker 1: we don't have ancestry. Maybe I'm Indians, so I just

1347
01:07:19,360 --> 01:07:21,880
Speaker 1: don't have the European ancestry, So I'm willing to look

1348
01:07:21,880 --> 01:07:24,560
Speaker 1: at it on a balance sheet that any war in

1349
01:07:24,600 --> 01:07:28,000
Speaker 1: East Asia would be ten to fifteen to twenty five

1350
01:07:28,080 --> 01:07:32,760
Speaker 1: times more impactful on US interests than anything that is

1351
01:07:32,800 --> 01:07:35,560
Speaker 1: going on right now in Ukraine. And part of the issue,

1352
01:07:35,560 --> 01:07:37,680
Speaker 1: as I always worried about, is that we are blowing

1353
01:07:37,680 --> 01:07:42,160
Speaker 1: our wad on terms of our military industrial complex, in

1354
01:07:42,240 --> 01:07:45,240
Speaker 1: terms of our supplies, in terms of our just energy,

1355
01:07:45,320 --> 01:07:49,440
Speaker 1: our attention, while there is yeah public will, while there

1356
01:07:49,600 --> 01:07:52,960
Speaker 1: is a real possibility of a war which could end

1357
01:07:53,080 --> 01:07:55,680
Speaker 1: the American way of life as we know it. Already

1358
01:07:55,840 --> 01:07:58,400
Speaker 1: China zero COVID lockdowns are making it so that the

1359
01:07:58,440 --> 01:08:01,080
Speaker 1: new iPhone fourteen is not going to get delivered, you know,

1360
01:08:01,200 --> 01:08:04,080
Speaker 1: on time. This is sageous. I really believe that people

1361
01:08:04,120 --> 01:08:06,240
Speaker 1: should and people should understand, like if there's a war

1362
01:08:06,360 --> 01:08:08,880
Speaker 1: over Taiwan or in East Asia, this will be the

1363
01:08:08,920 --> 01:08:10,960
Speaker 1: last iPhone that you ever have, and you'll likely have

1364
01:08:11,000 --> 01:08:13,320
Speaker 1: to turn it into the government because they need the

1365
01:08:13,400 --> 01:08:16,400
Speaker 1: chips that are inside of it. So look, it's a

1366
01:08:16,439 --> 01:08:20,040
Speaker 1: serious situation. We can learn. We had a five year

1367
01:08:20,120 --> 01:08:24,479
Speaker 1: reprieve from over seventy years of war or tensions on

1368
01:08:24,520 --> 01:08:28,400
Speaker 1: the Korean peninsula, and it came from just talking between

1369
01:08:28,640 --> 01:08:32,160
Speaker 1: two leaders and having high level conversations, and it led

1370
01:08:32,160 --> 01:08:35,439
Speaker 1: to extraordinary results. The South Korean president goes to North

1371
01:08:35,479 --> 01:08:38,640
Speaker 1: Korea does the handship, It's never happened before. It's like

1372
01:08:38,720 --> 01:08:42,439
Speaker 1: these were we were on the path to a good outcome,

1373
01:08:42,680 --> 01:08:46,120
Speaker 1: and instead the Biden administration reverted back to the brain

1374
01:08:46,160 --> 01:08:48,559
Speaker 1: dead policy of we're going to insist the country with

1375
01:08:48,600 --> 01:08:50,680
Speaker 1: the capability. We're going to insist that a country with

1376
01:08:50,720 --> 01:08:53,479
Speaker 1: the capability to nuke US should give up their nukes?

1377
01:08:53,640 --> 01:08:55,880
Speaker 1: Why would they do that? These past several years, I've

1378
01:08:55,880 --> 01:08:58,519
Speaker 1: really exposed how so much of what is taken for

1379
01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:01,320
Speaker 1: granted as like foreign policy conventional wisdom in the Blob

1380
01:09:01,479 --> 01:09:04,320
Speaker 1: was not just like it was just completely wrong. It

1381
01:09:04,400 --> 01:09:06,880
Speaker 1: was like total opposite of what you should be doing.

1382
01:09:06,880 --> 01:09:09,839
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, our sanctioned policy with regard to Russia,

1383
01:09:09,880 --> 01:09:12,440
Speaker 1: how is that where he has that curbed their appetite

1384
01:09:12,439 --> 01:09:16,320
Speaker 1: for war? Has that even dukes? Yeahctly exactly. So. Yeah,

1385
01:09:16,360 --> 01:09:19,840
Speaker 1: there's been a lot of potential learning, but unfortunately the

1386
01:09:20,320 --> 01:09:23,320
Speaker 1: foreign policy establishment doesn't seem to want to learn those lessons. No,

1387
01:09:23,439 --> 01:09:25,200
Speaker 1: they don't want to learn it at all. Okay, let's

1388
01:09:25,520 --> 01:09:28,240
Speaker 1: final one here. This is a rough one. Every time

1389
01:09:28,280 --> 01:09:31,920
Speaker 1: we see these moments. It's just so brutal because this

1390
01:09:32,000 --> 01:09:33,920
Speaker 1: is the most powerful man in the world. The face

1391
01:09:34,000 --> 01:09:37,280
Speaker 1: is also of the planets hands. In a lot of ways,

1392
01:09:37,760 --> 01:09:40,680
Speaker 1: the rest in this man's hands, and yet we are

1393
01:09:40,760 --> 01:09:43,560
Speaker 1: forced to cover him objectively and say that some of

1394
01:09:43,600 --> 01:09:47,000
Speaker 1: these senior moments are just horrific. And the latest one

1395
01:09:47,479 --> 01:09:51,479
Speaker 1: is two gaffes, which happened in the span of literally

1396
01:09:51,560 --> 01:09:54,559
Speaker 1: twenty seconds while Biden was on the stump. I won't

1397
01:09:54,560 --> 01:09:56,639
Speaker 1: preview with them for you. Let's just take a lesson

1398
01:09:57,280 --> 01:10:01,880
Speaker 1: and they talk about inflation. You know, we're dealing with

1399
01:10:01,920 --> 01:10:05,599
Speaker 1: it for home. Second, inflation is a worldwide problem right

1400
01:10:05,640 --> 01:10:08,559
Speaker 1: now because of a war in Iraq and the impact

1401
01:10:08,600 --> 01:10:10,960
Speaker 1: on oil and what Russia's doing. I mean, excuse me,

1402
01:10:11,000 --> 01:10:16,439
Speaker 1: his war in Ukraine, and uh, think of Iraq because

1403
01:10:16,439 --> 01:10:20,240
Speaker 1: that's when my son died because of the die. But

1404
01:10:20,400 --> 01:10:24,719
Speaker 1: the point so, first of all, war in Iraq, warren Ukraine. Second,

1405
01:10:25,000 --> 01:10:26,560
Speaker 1: he said that his son died in Iraq. You know

1406
01:10:26,600 --> 01:10:28,960
Speaker 1: the craziest part, that's the second time this time has

1407
01:10:29,000 --> 01:10:31,320
Speaker 1: died in Iraq. Yeah, and his son died of brain

1408
01:10:31,400 --> 01:10:35,000
Speaker 1: cancer here in the US. Biden also, he often does

1409
01:10:35,040 --> 01:10:37,519
Speaker 1: this inappropriate thing where and I am not diminishing Bo

1410
01:10:37,600 --> 01:10:39,920
Speaker 1: Biden's service, like you know, like he served in Iraq,

1411
01:10:40,120 --> 01:10:42,679
Speaker 1: but he will often liken like the experience of losing

1412
01:10:42,680 --> 01:10:45,639
Speaker 1: his son to a brain tumor, and then people whose

1413
01:10:46,000 --> 01:10:48,439
Speaker 1: kids get killed in combat, and it's like, dude, that's

1414
01:10:48,439 --> 01:10:51,160
Speaker 1: actually not the same at all. Like you can empathize

1415
01:10:51,200 --> 01:10:53,479
Speaker 1: as a greed and parent, but it's like, you know,

1416
01:10:53,840 --> 01:10:57,360
Speaker 1: I mean, he believes, and I think with some justification,

1417
01:10:57,520 --> 01:11:00,240
Speaker 1: that Bo gets brain cancer because of the top sick

1418
01:11:00,240 --> 01:11:02,920
Speaker 1: burn pits, so he does connect it directly to the service,

1419
01:11:03,640 --> 01:11:07,800
Speaker 1: putting that aside. You know, what was really noteworthy to

1420
01:11:07,880 --> 01:11:12,400
Speaker 1: me was not the you know, brain malfunction, which we've

1421
01:11:12,439 --> 01:11:16,280
Speaker 1: seen consistently for a while now with President Biden. It

1422
01:11:16,360 --> 01:11:18,360
Speaker 1: was that the New York Times actually wrote it up.

1423
01:11:18,560 --> 01:11:21,080
Speaker 1: That's what shocked me. Let's go and put this up

1424
01:11:21,120 --> 01:11:24,639
Speaker 1: on the screen. I mean, Biden verbally fumbles twice during

1425
01:11:24,680 --> 01:11:27,519
Speaker 1: campaign trip in Florida the present confused the American War

1426
01:11:27,680 --> 01:11:30,240
Speaker 1: in a Rock with the Russian War in Ukraine, and

1427
01:11:30,240 --> 01:11:33,160
Speaker 1: then misstated how his son Bo died. This was a

1428
01:11:33,200 --> 01:11:37,280
Speaker 1: piece by Peter Baker. This comes on the heels also

1429
01:11:37,640 --> 01:11:40,880
Speaker 1: of an op ed in the Washington Post. By the

1430
01:11:41,360 --> 01:11:47,000
Speaker 1: establishment of establishment dudes. George Will wrote that Democrats should

1431
01:11:47,080 --> 01:11:51,760
Speaker 1: dump both Biden and Kamala, and he cites specifically so

1432
01:11:52,000 --> 01:11:54,320
Speaker 1: it says for the good of the country, Biden Harris

1433
01:11:54,360 --> 01:11:57,799
Speaker 1: should bow out of the twenty twenty four election, citing

1434
01:11:57,960 --> 01:12:01,920
Speaker 1: specifically one of these brain malfunctions on the part of

1435
01:12:01,920 --> 01:12:05,799
Speaker 1: the president where he seemed to forget that he passed

1436
01:12:05,840 --> 01:12:11,000
Speaker 1: the student loan forgiveness program by executive orderer rather than

1437
01:12:11,040 --> 01:12:14,519
Speaker 1: by taking a vote. I mean he actually said specifically, like, oh,

1438
01:12:14,600 --> 01:12:17,120
Speaker 1: we won that vote by a slim margin, by just

1439
01:12:17,160 --> 01:12:20,200
Speaker 1: a couple of votes. It's like, what are you talking about?

1440
01:12:20,400 --> 01:12:23,040
Speaker 1: You That was an executive order that had nothing to

1441
01:12:23,080 --> 01:12:27,439
Speaker 1: do with the Congress. So it is noteworthy to me

1442
01:12:27,880 --> 01:12:32,400
Speaker 1: that establishment media is setting up a case for Democrats

1443
01:12:32,760 --> 01:12:36,559
Speaker 1: dumping Biden and moving forward with a different candidate. Yeah,

1444
01:12:36,640 --> 01:12:39,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I think you might be right. I also

1445
01:12:39,240 --> 01:12:41,400
Speaker 1: just think it's getting so undeniable at this point that

1446
01:12:41,520 --> 01:12:42,800
Speaker 1: it's like you look at that and you're like, that

1447
01:12:42,920 --> 01:12:45,479
Speaker 1: is horrific. I mean, it comes on the heat heels

1448
01:12:45,520 --> 01:12:49,840
Speaker 1: of the Jackie clip, remember, like Jackie was, It's just undeniable.

1449
01:12:49,920 --> 01:12:52,240
Speaker 1: It is undeniable, like and you know, even in that

1450
01:12:52,560 --> 01:12:54,760
Speaker 1: limited clip that we played on the Paul Pelosi thing,

1451
01:12:54,840 --> 01:12:57,639
Speaker 1: he like loses his place right just in the middle,

1452
01:12:57,760 --> 01:13:00,840
Speaker 1: and some element of Biden being off the cuff has

1453
01:13:00,920 --> 01:13:03,920
Speaker 1: always been there. I urge people to go I think

1454
01:13:03,960 --> 01:13:05,559
Speaker 1: I did a monologue. He can go back and watch

1455
01:13:05,640 --> 01:13:09,760
Speaker 1: it of Biden in interviews from two thousand and three,

1456
01:13:10,040 --> 01:13:14,400
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, even twenty sixteen, basically the same guy.

1457
01:13:15,120 --> 01:13:19,040
Speaker 1: Something happened between twenty seventeen and twenty twenty when he

1458
01:13:19,080 --> 01:13:21,080
Speaker 1: came out in Never Forget. I saw him on stage

1459
01:13:21,080 --> 01:13:23,200
Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen and one of his first I was like,

1460
01:13:23,280 --> 01:13:24,960
Speaker 1: I can't believe it's the same. Well, you know, they

1461
01:13:24,960 --> 01:13:28,000
Speaker 1: talk about how with people who are older, it's like

1462
01:13:28,040 --> 01:13:31,599
Speaker 1: when you stop working, yeah, that you really start to decline.

1463
01:13:31,600 --> 01:13:33,559
Speaker 1: And so it kind of makes sense that Okay, you're

1464
01:13:33,600 --> 01:13:36,240
Speaker 1: done with the duties of the vice presidency, you're kind

1465
01:13:36,280 --> 01:13:39,839
Speaker 1: of in a respite period that those that that decline

1466
01:13:39,880 --> 01:13:41,559
Speaker 1: really starts to show up. I mean, I'm just purely

1467
01:13:41,560 --> 01:13:45,400
Speaker 1: speculating here, but it is pretty undeniable. Now. Question is

1468
01:13:45,720 --> 01:13:48,800
Speaker 1: if if in fact, you buy my assertion here that

1469
01:13:48,840 --> 01:13:51,040
Speaker 1: the media is starting to say, hey, guys, you know

1470
01:13:51,040 --> 01:13:53,479
Speaker 1: there's some real concerns about this guy's age. All the

1471
01:13:53,520 --> 01:13:56,360
Speaker 1: polling says a majority of Democrats won a different candidate.

1472
01:13:56,920 --> 01:13:59,680
Speaker 1: The number one concern is his age, and you know

1473
01:13:59,720 --> 01:14:04,320
Speaker 1: a lot with it, like his mental acuity. I still

1474
01:14:04,880 --> 01:14:08,200
Speaker 1: continue to believe, though, that it's going to be impossible

1475
01:14:08,360 --> 01:14:12,240
Speaker 1: to for establishment Democrats to push him to the side,

1476
01:14:12,240 --> 01:14:14,560
Speaker 1: because ultimately, who's the bench. I mean, how do you

1477
01:14:14,600 --> 01:14:17,679
Speaker 1: get past Kamala Harris, the first black female vice president.

1478
01:14:17,800 --> 01:14:19,479
Speaker 1: How do you do that when you know that she

1479
01:14:19,600 --> 01:14:21,519
Speaker 1: would be worse than f And by the way, it's

1480
01:14:21,520 --> 01:14:23,960
Speaker 1: not like you know, the guy they'd all like mayor Pete.

1481
01:14:24,120 --> 01:14:26,920
Speaker 1: It's not like his approval ratings or his like electability

1482
01:14:27,080 --> 01:14:29,960
Speaker 1: is really in better shape than the incumbent president of

1483
01:14:29,960 --> 01:14:32,320
Speaker 1: the United States. So I continue to think at the

1484
01:14:32,400 --> 01:14:34,080
Speaker 1: end of the day, they suck it up and all

1485
01:14:34,160 --> 01:14:36,559
Speaker 1: rally behind Joe and like, stop. Remember how there was

1486
01:14:36,560 --> 01:14:38,360
Speaker 1: a time during the primary where they were willing to

1487
01:14:38,400 --> 01:14:41,960
Speaker 1: talk about like his you know, fumbles and his his

1488
01:14:42,080 --> 01:14:44,240
Speaker 1: like inability to speak, And then all of a sudden,

1489
01:14:44,280 --> 01:14:46,840
Speaker 1: when they decided they had no other choice in order

1490
01:14:46,880 --> 01:14:48,840
Speaker 1: to defeat Bertie Sanders, They're like, we can't talk about

1491
01:14:48,840 --> 01:14:50,639
Speaker 1: that anymore, and it's just a stutter And how dare

1492
01:14:50,640 --> 01:14:52,960
Speaker 1: you be ablest? I think we'll see a similar trajectory,

1493
01:14:52,960 --> 01:14:57,559
Speaker 1: that is my gas. But we'll see Christill, what are

1494
01:14:57,560 --> 01:14:59,160
Speaker 1: you taking a look at? Well? Guys. In the final

1495
01:14:59,240 --> 01:15:02,160
Speaker 1: days the campaign season, with Democrats facing potential doom in

1496
01:15:02,200 --> 01:15:04,800
Speaker 1: both the House and the Senate, President Biden is trying

1497
01:15:04,920 --> 01:15:08,679
Speaker 1: one last ditch effort to turn the party's fortunes around.

1498
01:15:08,760 --> 01:15:12,160
Speaker 1: In addition to his democracy speech, frankly, this is what

1499
01:15:12,200 --> 01:15:14,320
Speaker 1: I've been begging the party to focus on all along,

1500
01:15:14,360 --> 01:15:17,040
Speaker 1: the Wall Street royalists, the corporate profiteers who've been taking

1501
01:15:17,040 --> 01:15:20,759
Speaker 1: advantage of the current moment to price gouge. Specifically, Biden

1502
01:15:20,800 --> 01:15:23,040
Speaker 1: decided to dip his toe in the water of going

1503
01:15:23,080 --> 01:15:26,000
Speaker 1: after some of the worst corporate actors, the oil and

1504
01:15:26,080 --> 01:15:29,599
Speaker 1: gas giants. Take a listen, oil companies record profits today

1505
01:15:29,640 --> 01:15:32,360
Speaker 1: are not because they're doing something new or innovative. Their

1506
01:15:32,360 --> 01:15:35,720
Speaker 1: profits are a windfall of war, the wind fall from

1507
01:15:35,720 --> 01:15:38,840
Speaker 1: the brutal conflict that's ravaging Ukraine and hurting tens of

1508
01:15:38,840 --> 01:15:41,240
Speaker 1: millions of people around the globe. You now, at a

1509
01:15:41,280 --> 01:15:44,479
Speaker 1: time of war, any company receiving historic win profits like

1510
01:15:44,520 --> 01:15:47,479
Speaker 1: this has a responsibility to act beyond their narrow self

1511
01:15:47,479 --> 01:15:51,040
Speaker 1: interest of its executive shareholders. I think they have responsibility

1512
01:15:51,040 --> 01:15:53,320
Speaker 1: to act in the interest of their consumers, their community,

1513
01:15:53,360 --> 01:15:56,599
Speaker 1: and their country to invest in America by increasing production

1514
01:15:56,720 --> 01:15:59,840
Speaker 1: and refining capacity. Because they don't want to do that,

1515
01:16:00,200 --> 01:16:02,760
Speaker 1: they have the opportunity to do that lowering prices or

1516
01:16:02,760 --> 01:16:06,120
Speaker 1: consumers are the pump. You know. If they don't, they're

1517
01:16:06,120 --> 01:16:08,120
Speaker 1: going to pay a higher tax on their excess profits

1518
01:16:08,120 --> 01:16:11,400
Speaker 1: and face other restrictions. My team will work with Congress

1519
01:16:11,400 --> 01:16:13,599
Speaker 1: to look at these options that are available to us

1520
01:16:13,600 --> 01:16:16,800
Speaker 1: and others. It's time for these companies to stop more profiteering,

1521
01:16:17,280 --> 01:16:20,120
Speaker 1: meet their responsibilities in this country, give the American people

1522
01:16:20,120 --> 01:16:22,920
Speaker 1: a break, and still do very well. The American people

1523
01:16:22,960 --> 01:16:25,639
Speaker 1: are going to judge who's standing with them and who

1524
01:16:25,680 --> 01:16:28,000
Speaker 1: is only looking out for their own bottom line. I

1525
01:16:28,080 --> 01:16:30,560
Speaker 1: know where I stand, and I want to let you

1526
01:16:30,720 --> 01:16:33,080
Speaker 1: hear more from me about this when the Congress gets back.

1527
01:16:33,200 --> 01:16:35,840
Speaker 1: Thank you all, very very much, appreciate it. Button team

1528
01:16:35,960 --> 01:16:38,040
Speaker 1: is one hundred percent correct about the record breaking profits

1529
01:16:38,080 --> 01:16:40,040
Speaker 1: the oil and gas giants are raking in. So the

1530
01:16:40,080 --> 01:16:44,040
Speaker 1: combination of high post pandemic demand and high prices has

1531
01:16:44,080 --> 01:16:47,840
Speaker 1: led to an astonishing nineteen point seven billion dollar profit

1532
01:16:47,880 --> 01:16:50,719
Speaker 1: for Exon Mobile. That's just in the third quarter. Chevron

1533
01:16:50,960 --> 01:16:53,680
Speaker 1: no slouge either, raking in a record eleven point two

1534
01:16:54,040 --> 01:16:57,600
Speaker 1: billion dollars in profits. Both of those represent massive increases

1535
01:16:57,720 --> 01:17:01,240
Speaker 1: quarter to quarter and year over year. Now, Biden's statement

1536
01:17:01,280 --> 01:17:04,160
Speaker 1: and the threat of a windfall profits tax it's part

1537
01:17:04,160 --> 01:17:07,919
Speaker 1: political messaging and it's part economic policy. On economic policy,

1538
01:17:07,920 --> 01:17:10,840
Speaker 1: the theory is that oil and gas companies, even while

1539
01:17:10,920 --> 01:17:14,040
Speaker 1: raking in record profits, are too spooked by the possibility

1540
01:17:14,080 --> 01:17:16,960
Speaker 1: of recession or new lockdowns in China to invest in

1541
01:17:17,000 --> 01:17:20,479
Speaker 1: significant production increases, no matter how much money they are

1542
01:17:20,479 --> 01:17:23,519
Speaker 1: making right now. What's more, these companies can see the

1543
01:17:23,520 --> 01:17:25,599
Speaker 1: writing on the wall with the green transition away from

1544
01:17:25,640 --> 01:17:28,120
Speaker 1: fossil fuels, which has actually been accelerated by the war

1545
01:17:28,160 --> 01:17:31,240
Speaker 1: in Ukraine. In the short term, Russia's war has up

1546
01:17:31,280 --> 01:17:34,160
Speaker 1: the need for fossil fuels and dirty energy sources like coal,

1547
01:17:34,360 --> 01:17:36,040
Speaker 1: But in the medium to long term it has made

1548
01:17:36,040 --> 01:17:38,400
Speaker 1: a compelling case the world they'd better get serious about

1549
01:17:38,400 --> 01:17:41,400
Speaker 1: renewables to protect both their economies and their national security

1550
01:17:41,439 --> 01:17:44,040
Speaker 1: from future shocks of the type they are currently experiencing.

1551
01:17:44,400 --> 01:17:47,439
Speaker 1: By the way, side note, This is precisely why we

1552
01:17:47,439 --> 01:17:49,920
Speaker 1: should nationalize our oil and gas industry to upproduction in

1553
01:17:49,960 --> 01:17:51,599
Speaker 1: the short term wind it down for the long term.

1554
01:17:51,600 --> 01:17:53,599
Speaker 1: But you can go back and watch my previous monologue

1555
01:17:53,640 --> 01:17:56,880
Speaker 1: on that one. Bottom line, the natural workings of the

1556
01:17:56,920 --> 01:17:59,960
Speaker 1: market are not going to lead these companies to up

1557
01:18:00,040 --> 01:18:02,040
Speaker 1: their production to help us out in the short term,

1558
01:18:02,200 --> 01:18:04,800
Speaker 1: no matter how record breaking their current profit margins. And

1559
01:18:04,840 --> 01:18:08,720
Speaker 1: the Biden administration they've already tried inducing increased production through

1560
01:18:08,760 --> 01:18:12,240
Speaker 1: carrots for the industry by using the strategic petroleum reserved

1561
01:18:12,240 --> 01:18:16,639
Speaker 1: to effectively guarantee a price floor with a windfall profits tax.

1562
01:18:16,800 --> 01:18:19,519
Speaker 1: The administration is now trying to break out the stick,

1563
01:18:19,600 --> 01:18:22,360
Speaker 1: and in my opinion, that is long overdue. Basically, they're saying,

1564
01:18:22,640 --> 01:18:24,760
Speaker 1: nice profit margin, you got, There be a shame if

1565
01:18:24,760 --> 01:18:27,639
Speaker 1: something happened to it. The threat of a windfall profits

1566
01:18:27,640 --> 01:18:29,920
Speaker 1: tax is an attempt to induce the gas companies to

1567
01:18:30,000 --> 01:18:33,200
Speaker 1: produce more and lower prices in order to avoid that

1568
01:18:33,400 --> 01:18:36,880
Speaker 1: threat threat of a costly tax. Now, there's no guarantees

1569
01:18:36,960 --> 01:18:39,200
Speaker 1: that the threat or the reality of a windfall profits

1570
01:18:39,240 --> 01:18:42,000
Speaker 1: tax will compel increased production. But if these giants are

1571
01:18:42,040 --> 01:18:44,920
Speaker 1: not going to up production anyway, and the Biden admin

1572
01:18:45,240 --> 01:18:48,479
Speaker 1: obviously not bold enough to actually nationalize them. At least

1573
01:18:48,479 --> 01:18:50,760
Speaker 1: they could use the tax proceeds to invest in a

1574
01:18:50,800 --> 01:18:53,200
Speaker 1: future that doesn't depend on these companies or in bad

1575
01:18:53,240 --> 01:18:56,960
Speaker 1: actors like Saudi Arabia, Russia and Venezuela. Now, in the politics,

1576
01:18:57,200 --> 01:19:00,759
Speaker 1: a windfills windfall profits tax is a co year political

1577
01:19:00,800 --> 01:19:03,880
Speaker 1: winner is take a look at this. Back in March,

1578
01:19:03,960 --> 01:19:06,240
Speaker 1: when a group of House and Senate Dems unveiled legislation

1579
01:19:06,280 --> 01:19:09,479
Speaker 1: which would impose that windfall profits tax, a poll found

1580
01:19:09,479 --> 01:19:13,240
Speaker 1: an astonishing eighty percent of voters would back such a measure,

1581
01:19:13,520 --> 01:19:17,000
Speaker 1: and even higher eighty seven percent, including majorities of Republicans,

1582
01:19:17,040 --> 01:19:19,920
Speaker 1: said they want politicians to quote crack down on price

1583
01:19:19,960 --> 01:19:23,160
Speaker 1: gouging and excessive price increases by oil companies that result

1584
01:19:23,200 --> 01:19:26,160
Speaker 1: in higher gas prices at the pump. Just listen to

1585
01:19:26,200 --> 01:19:28,719
Speaker 1: how the crowd responded to Tim Ryan, he's the Democrat

1586
01:19:28,800 --> 01:19:31,400
Speaker 1: running a closer than expected race for Senate in Ohio,

1587
01:19:31,600 --> 01:19:34,120
Speaker 1: when he brought up a windfall profits tax, and this

1588
01:19:34,280 --> 01:19:37,200
Speaker 1: was at a Fox News town hall. I think the

1589
01:19:37,240 --> 01:19:41,080
Speaker 1: fact that oil companies are making huge profits and having

1590
01:19:41,160 --> 01:19:45,719
Speaker 1: stock buybacks right now, while average person here's paying nearly

1591
01:19:45,720 --> 01:19:48,160
Speaker 1: four dollars a gallon. I think that's wrong, and I

1592
01:19:48,160 --> 01:19:50,880
Speaker 1: think we need to crack down. We need to crack

1593
01:19:50,920 --> 01:19:53,800
Speaker 1: down on it now. Apparently some critical players in the

1594
01:19:53,800 --> 01:19:56,040
Speaker 1: White House have been paying attention to the incredible power

1595
01:19:56,040 --> 01:19:58,759
Speaker 1: of gas politics for a while. Our friend Chef signed

1596
01:19:58,760 --> 01:20:00,559
Speaker 1: the Washington Post has a great in I'd look at

1597
01:20:00,560 --> 01:20:02,479
Speaker 1: how the second most powerful man in the White House,

1598
01:20:02,520 --> 01:20:05,320
Speaker 1: that would be Chief of Staff ron Klain, became obsessed

1599
01:20:05,479 --> 01:20:08,519
Speaker 1: with gas prices. Jeff writes that quote many aids say

1600
01:20:08,520 --> 01:20:12,080
Speaker 1: the President's popularity is closely tied to a single economic number.

1601
01:20:12,240 --> 01:20:14,400
Speaker 1: They could be right. He goes on to explain that

1602
01:20:14,479 --> 01:20:16,759
Speaker 1: ron Klain starts his day at three thirty am checking

1603
01:20:16,840 --> 01:20:19,200
Speaker 1: the Triple A website for the daily average gas price.

1604
01:20:19,360 --> 01:20:22,280
Speaker 1: He then eyeballs the gas station prices on his morning commute,

1605
01:20:22,320 --> 01:20:25,240
Speaker 1: continues checking in and tweeting about the daily trends multiple

1606
01:20:25,240 --> 01:20:28,120
Speaker 1: times around his busy day. Clains focused on the political

1607
01:20:28,160 --> 01:20:30,479
Speaker 1: case for a gas price obsession, and the case is

1608
01:20:30,520 --> 01:20:33,879
Speaker 1: pretty simple. When gas prices have been high, Biden's approval

1609
01:20:33,960 --> 01:20:36,680
Speaker 1: has been low. When gas prices dropped, Biden not his

1610
01:20:36,760 --> 01:20:39,519
Speaker 1: highest approval rating since the early honeymoon days. Of his

1611
01:20:39,840 --> 01:20:42,960
Speaker 1: term in office. As I write this, gas prices have

1612
01:20:43,040 --> 01:20:47,040
Speaker 1: been mostly trickling slowly down. The national average is now

1613
01:20:47,040 --> 01:20:50,200
Speaker 1: about three dollars and seventy six cents, not exactly cheap,

1614
01:20:50,240 --> 01:20:52,439
Speaker 1: but better than when they were topping five dollars a

1615
01:20:52,479 --> 01:20:54,479
Speaker 1: gall and getting kind of close to where they were

1616
01:20:54,520 --> 01:20:57,040
Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty one. Fortunately for the White House

1617
01:20:57,200 --> 01:20:59,360
Speaker 1: to the most expensive markets in the country are in

1618
01:20:59,360 --> 01:21:02,479
Speaker 1: the swing states of Nevada and Arizona. On the other hand, Georgia,

1619
01:21:02,479 --> 01:21:04,439
Speaker 1: both some of the cheapest gas in the country. Could

1620
01:21:04,439 --> 01:21:06,719
Speaker 1: be an interesting little experiment on election day of whether

1621
01:21:06,760 --> 01:21:09,439
Speaker 1: gas prices are as significant a political indicator as the

1622
01:21:09,439 --> 01:21:11,880
Speaker 1: White House seems to think they are. As Jeff writes,

1623
01:21:12,080 --> 01:21:15,040
Speaker 1: economists say, there is something puzzling, if not irrational, in

1624
01:21:15,040 --> 01:21:17,800
Speaker 1: the political power of gas prices. Gas typically amounts to

1625
01:21:17,880 --> 01:21:20,559
Speaker 1: just four percent of the average family's budget, with food

1626
01:21:20,600 --> 01:21:23,679
Speaker 1: and housing typically representing larger shares of how Americans spend

1627
01:21:23,720 --> 01:21:27,479
Speaker 1: their money. Gas appears to have a disproportionate electoral impact,

1628
01:21:27,479 --> 01:21:30,560
Speaker 1: in part because of its visual prominence and the frequency

1629
01:21:30,560 --> 01:21:33,639
Speaker 1: with which consumers must buy it. Cost of housing, medicine,

1630
01:21:33,640 --> 01:21:36,000
Speaker 1: even groceries can be relatively opaque while the price of

1631
01:21:36,040 --> 01:21:40,479
Speaker 1: gasoline is emblazoned on large public signs in every part

1632
01:21:40,640 --> 01:21:44,040
Speaker 1: of the country. So the current White House prayer down

1633
01:21:44,080 --> 01:21:47,559
Speaker 1: the stretch is that the downward, slow drift of gas

1634
01:21:47,640 --> 01:21:50,880
Speaker 1: prices will translate into a disproportioned impact at the polls,

1635
01:21:51,240 --> 01:21:54,840
Speaker 1: That maybe this last little economic lift before election day

1636
01:21:54,840 --> 01:21:56,720
Speaker 1: will provide them with a boost that lets them hang

1637
01:21:56,720 --> 01:21:59,760
Speaker 1: onto the Senate. That perhaps this late downward decline has

1638
01:21:59,760 --> 01:22:02,040
Speaker 1: come it just the right time and isn't showing up

1639
01:22:02,120 --> 01:22:04,720
Speaker 1: yet in the polls, which, as we've been covering, have

1640
01:22:04,840 --> 01:22:08,599
Speaker 1: been drifting steadily towards the GOP. Or maybe with voters

1641
01:22:08,640 --> 01:22:11,759
Speaker 1: having a lot of legitimate economic concerns outside of gas prices,

1642
01:22:11,960 --> 01:22:15,080
Speaker 1: and with Democrats mostly fixating on abortion and in a

1643
01:22:15,120 --> 01:22:18,760
Speaker 1: final pitch on democracy, it's all too little, too late,

1644
01:22:19,200 --> 01:22:21,080
Speaker 1: not going to have to wait long to find out.

1645
01:22:21,320 --> 01:22:23,559
Speaker 1: The thing that's a little perplexing here, though, Sager, is

1646
01:22:23,880 --> 01:22:25,800
Speaker 1: you know this whole piece about ron play and if

1647
01:22:25,800 --> 01:22:28,519
Speaker 1: you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become

1648
01:22:28,520 --> 01:22:34,719
Speaker 1: a premium subscriber today at breakingpoints dot Com. All right, Saga,

1649
01:22:34,760 --> 01:22:36,600
Speaker 1: were looking at well, if you were to ask what

1650
01:22:36,680 --> 01:22:38,479
Speaker 1: I think separates me from most of the people who

1651
01:22:38,479 --> 01:22:40,720
Speaker 1: work in this profession. It's this. I think most of

1652
01:22:40,760 --> 01:22:43,480
Speaker 1: the people who work in so called capital p politics

1653
01:22:43,640 --> 01:22:46,599
Speaker 1: are irredeemable and we should be better off without them.

1654
01:22:46,840 --> 01:22:48,840
Speaker 1: If you were to ask them, they would say, yeah,

1655
01:22:49,040 --> 01:22:51,360
Speaker 1: we screwed up X or why. But you don't know

1656
01:22:51,360 --> 01:22:54,080
Speaker 1: how to do Z without us, and everybody makes mistakes

1657
01:22:54,439 --> 01:22:57,000
Speaker 1: in many ways. That's the central dividing line in American

1658
01:22:57,040 --> 01:22:59,800
Speaker 1: politics today. Do you acknowledge that things are bad and

1659
01:23:00,080 --> 01:23:01,840
Speaker 1: want to tweak the system or do you want to

1660
01:23:01,880 --> 01:23:04,320
Speaker 1: pretty much replace it. That's the framework through which we

1661
01:23:04,320 --> 01:23:07,080
Speaker 1: should approach the following subject, which is ignited a firestorm

1662
01:23:07,120 --> 01:23:10,240
Speaker 1: in our political discourse in recent days, after Brown University

1663
01:23:10,240 --> 01:23:13,240
Speaker 1: professor Emily Oster published a new piece in The Atlantic

1664
01:23:13,320 --> 01:23:17,439
Speaker 1: titled quote Let's declare a pandemic Amnesty, with the subhead

1665
01:23:17,479 --> 01:23:20,280
Speaker 1: quote we need to forgive one another for what we

1666
01:23:20,320 --> 01:23:22,799
Speaker 1: did and then when we were in the dark about COVID.

1667
01:23:23,520 --> 01:23:26,519
Speaker 1: The crux of the argument is this quote. Treating pandemic

1668
01:23:26,640 --> 01:23:29,320
Speaker 1: choices as a scorecard on which people racked up more

1669
01:23:29,360 --> 01:23:32,920
Speaker 1: points than others is preventing us from moving forward. She continues,

1670
01:23:33,040 --> 01:23:35,040
Speaker 1: we have to put these fights aside and declare a

1671
01:23:35,080 --> 01:23:38,439
Speaker 1: pandemic amnesty. We can leave out the wolf for purveyors

1672
01:23:38,439 --> 01:23:41,639
Speaker 1: of actual misinformation, while forgiving the hard calls the people

1673
01:23:41,680 --> 01:23:45,280
Speaker 1: had no choice but to make with imperfect knowledge. Ostra

1674
01:23:45,360 --> 01:23:48,240
Speaker 1: focuses much on the early days of the pandemic, like

1675
01:23:48,320 --> 01:23:51,439
Speaker 1: April and May, for which I actually do have some sympathy,

1676
01:23:51,680 --> 01:23:54,400
Speaker 1: So I think it's worth parsing out why people are

1677
01:23:54,439 --> 01:23:58,200
Speaker 1: so angry about this thesis. First is this she is

1678
01:23:58,320 --> 01:24:01,320
Speaker 1: dishonest in her portrayal of quote hard calls that some

1679
01:24:01,400 --> 01:24:04,679
Speaker 1: had to make in early days. Nobody is mad people

1680
01:24:04,840 --> 01:24:07,519
Speaker 1: at people for closing schools in March of twenty twenty,

1681
01:24:07,760 --> 01:24:11,439
Speaker 1: given the uncertainty, it was perfectly reasonable. What people are

1682
01:24:11,520 --> 01:24:14,439
Speaker 1: mad about is that schools were not reopened in August

1683
01:24:14,479 --> 01:24:17,439
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty, after six months of data showed us

1684
01:24:17,439 --> 01:24:20,040
Speaker 1: that kids were not at risk. People are not mad

1685
01:24:20,120 --> 01:24:21,880
Speaker 1: that they were asked to mask up in the first

1686
01:24:21,880 --> 01:24:24,320
Speaker 1: couple of months of the virus. They are mad that

1687
01:24:24,360 --> 01:24:27,240
Speaker 1: many states and cities had straight up outdoor mass man

1688
01:24:27,320 --> 01:24:30,120
Speaker 1: dates for more than a year after the virus came

1689
01:24:30,200 --> 01:24:32,880
Speaker 1: to us, and we knew with relative certainty that COVID

1690
01:24:32,880 --> 01:24:36,520
Speaker 1: did not widely spread outdoors. I'm not mad about lockdowns

1691
01:24:36,520 --> 01:24:38,479
Speaker 1: in the first two months of the pandemic, but I

1692
01:24:38,560 --> 01:24:40,360
Speaker 1: am furious that when a bunch of people take to

1693
01:24:40,400 --> 01:24:43,200
Speaker 1: the streets that the public health establishment is willing to

1694
01:24:43,360 --> 01:24:46,160
Speaker 1: justify it completely and then have the gall to also

1695
01:24:46,280 --> 01:24:48,360
Speaker 1: say that it was okay for them. But if you

1696
01:24:48,439 --> 01:24:50,559
Speaker 1: want to walk your dog without a mask, then you're

1697
01:24:50,600 --> 01:24:53,760
Speaker 1: a grandma killer. Not mad about banning indoor dining in

1698
01:24:53,800 --> 01:24:56,599
Speaker 1: March of twenty twenty, I am mad about heavily restricting

1699
01:24:56,600 --> 01:24:58,919
Speaker 1: it a year later, like we did here in Washington.

1700
01:24:59,200 --> 01:25:01,920
Speaker 1: People are not mad that a vaccine was created the thing.

1701
01:25:02,000 --> 01:25:04,040
Speaker 1: People are rightfully mad that it was sold as a

1702
01:25:04,080 --> 01:25:07,000
Speaker 1: total preventative measure when it was not. When people were

1703
01:25:07,000 --> 01:25:09,160
Speaker 1: told it was two and then you're done, And then

1704
01:25:09,200 --> 01:25:11,400
Speaker 1: months later we're still being forced to mask up and

1705
01:25:11,439 --> 01:25:14,599
Speaker 1: then asked to get an additional three boosters when thousands

1706
01:25:14,600 --> 01:25:17,360
Speaker 1: of people were fired from their job. Fundamentally, it was

1707
01:25:17,360 --> 01:25:20,440
Speaker 1: a false premise. What I'm laying out in this diatribe

1708
01:25:20,479 --> 01:25:24,519
Speaker 1: is that there were immense societal costs to wrong calls

1709
01:25:24,680 --> 01:25:28,080
Speaker 1: during COVID on a scale. Some people can be forgiven

1710
01:25:28,120 --> 01:25:31,240
Speaker 1: for lack of knowledge, but basically for me, everything passed

1711
01:25:31,320 --> 01:25:34,000
Speaker 1: June of twenty twenty, lockdown and mass policy wise, and

1712
01:25:34,040 --> 01:25:36,360
Speaker 1: basically everything after the first two months of the MASK

1713
01:25:36,439 --> 01:25:39,800
Speaker 1: rollout should not be Or how about the lab League theory?

1714
01:25:39,880 --> 01:25:43,240
Speaker 1: Should we really forgive and declare a pandemic amnesty to

1715
01:25:43,320 --> 01:25:46,360
Speaker 1: the people who unleash this plague upon the world, covered

1716
01:25:46,360 --> 01:25:48,320
Speaker 1: it up, and are continuing to fund the very same

1717
01:25:48,360 --> 01:25:51,599
Speaker 1: research by the US government. Really should we really have

1718
01:25:51,800 --> 01:25:54,640
Speaker 1: an amnesty for doctor Anthony Fauci, who is up there,

1719
01:25:54,640 --> 01:25:56,800
Speaker 1: in my opinion, with George W. Bush in terms of

1720
01:25:56,840 --> 01:25:58,920
Speaker 1: damage that he has wrought upon this country and its

1721
01:25:59,000 --> 01:26:02,559
Speaker 1: lasting legacy. He lied about the Labley hypothesis, he admitted

1722
01:26:02,600 --> 01:26:05,439
Speaker 1: to lying about herd immunity. He manipulated the media throughout

1723
01:26:05,439 --> 01:26:08,080
Speaker 1: twenty twenty and twenty twenty one to impact policy which

1724
01:26:08,120 --> 01:26:12,040
Speaker 1: by definition curtailed the lives of hundreds of millions of

1725
01:26:12,040 --> 01:26:15,080
Speaker 1: our citizens. No, I don't think an amnesty is an

1726
01:26:15,160 --> 01:26:17,639
Speaker 1: order for many of these transgressions that I laid out.

1727
01:26:17,920 --> 01:26:19,760
Speaker 1: The reason why I think that the George W. Bush

1728
01:26:19,800 --> 01:26:22,960
Speaker 1: analogy is important is this, during the Trump years, you

1729
01:26:23,080 --> 01:26:25,960
Speaker 1: had two options. Either you thought Trump came out of

1730
01:26:25,960 --> 01:26:30,439
Speaker 1: nowhere and that half of America was irredeemably racist, or

1731
01:26:31,120 --> 01:26:33,880
Speaker 1: you took a second and you think pretty hard, how

1732
01:26:33,880 --> 01:26:36,719
Speaker 1: does America elect the dude from the Apprentice as president?

1733
01:26:37,000 --> 01:26:39,360
Speaker 1: If you are willing to ask that question, you had

1734
01:26:39,400 --> 01:26:42,160
Speaker 1: no choice but to grapple with elite failure at the

1735
01:26:42,240 --> 01:26:46,040
Speaker 1: highest level over two successive American presidencies where the quote

1736
01:26:46,080 --> 01:26:49,120
Speaker 1: experts were in charge. Trump was the cost of the

1737
01:26:49,160 --> 01:26:52,120
Speaker 1: war in Iraq, of the financial crisis, the turbocharging of

1738
01:26:52,160 --> 01:26:55,840
Speaker 1: cultural liberalism under Obama. To grapple with Trump, you had

1739
01:26:55,880 --> 01:26:58,400
Speaker 1: to accept on some level that the failures of the

1740
01:26:58,439 --> 01:27:00,880
Speaker 1: elite class, both then and going all the way back

1741
01:27:00,920 --> 01:27:03,759
Speaker 1: to the Reagan administration. That's why I cannot get behind

1742
01:27:03,800 --> 01:27:06,840
Speaker 1: a quote pandemic amnesty. I'm wrong all the time, and

1743
01:27:06,880 --> 01:27:08,519
Speaker 1: I was very wrong about a lot of things during

1744
01:27:08,560 --> 01:27:10,800
Speaker 1: COVID To the best I can, I have admitted to

1745
01:27:10,840 --> 01:27:13,120
Speaker 1: that to try and inform my perspective, because I think

1746
01:27:13,160 --> 01:27:15,960
Speaker 1: it's important to retain all of your trusts. The elites

1747
01:27:15,960 --> 01:27:18,599
Speaker 1: in charge do not think that way. If they are wrong,

1748
01:27:18,680 --> 01:27:21,080
Speaker 1: they will never admit it because they are not accountable

1749
01:27:21,120 --> 01:27:23,360
Speaker 1: to any of us. They are accountable only to their

1750
01:27:23,400 --> 01:27:25,840
Speaker 1: flawed peers. That is how the people who got us

1751
01:27:25,880 --> 01:27:29,440
Speaker 1: into the war in Iraq are literally all multi millionaires

1752
01:27:29,560 --> 01:27:32,559
Speaker 1: with big careers in Washington and New York City, making

1753
01:27:32,640 --> 01:27:34,960
Speaker 1: big money, while the kids that they sent abroad either

1754
01:27:35,040 --> 01:27:37,280
Speaker 1: died or came back missing a limb or missing the

1755
01:27:37,280 --> 01:27:39,920
Speaker 1: peace of mind that they once had. The point is

1756
01:27:39,920 --> 01:27:42,880
Speaker 1: is that a quote amnesty only works one way. It

1757
01:27:42,960 --> 01:27:45,599
Speaker 1: forgives the crimes of the elite class, and it would

1758
01:27:45,640 --> 01:27:47,760
Speaker 1: do nothing for the people who lost their jobs. It

1759
01:27:47,800 --> 01:27:49,599
Speaker 1: would do nothing for the tens of thousands of drug

1760
01:27:49,600 --> 01:27:51,960
Speaker 1: addicts who died during the pandemic, for the millions who

1761
01:27:51,960 --> 01:27:55,160
Speaker 1: suffered depression and mental illness took their lives, or just

1762
01:27:55,240 --> 01:27:57,760
Speaker 1: people who simply had a bad time and didn't have to.

1763
01:27:58,040 --> 01:28:00,080
Speaker 1: People in power should pay a price for that. Now

1764
01:28:00,160 --> 01:28:02,439
Speaker 1: we can argue what that exact price should be, but

1765
01:28:02,479 --> 01:28:04,679
Speaker 1: an amnesty is not and should not be on the table.

1766
01:28:04,840 --> 01:28:07,320
Speaker 1: I believe this to my core about all elite failures.

1767
01:28:07,520 --> 01:28:10,800
Speaker 1: It's okay to be wrong. Anyone in power inevitably will be.

1768
01:28:11,080 --> 01:28:14,680
Speaker 1: It's not ok to be wrong, not admit it, reakconsequences,

1769
01:28:14,720 --> 01:28:17,240
Speaker 1: and then say that the people who are mad should

1770
01:28:17,280 --> 01:28:19,519
Speaker 1: not be mad because they had the best of tensions.

1771
01:28:19,520 --> 01:28:22,120
Speaker 1: When those people were wrong. Doing that over time is

1772
01:28:22,160 --> 01:28:24,640
Speaker 1: exactly how we got to where we are. Inevitably, it

1773
01:28:24,680 --> 01:28:27,680
Speaker 1: reveals a fundamental discomfort on behalf of people who are

1774
01:28:27,720 --> 01:28:31,479
Speaker 1: professionally wrong with being held even somewhat to account. Now,

1775
01:28:31,520 --> 01:28:33,840
Speaker 1: do I have confidence anyone will love a price pay

1776
01:28:33,840 --> 01:28:37,240
Speaker 1: a price. No, I don't. Republicans say they'll investigate Fauci.

1777
01:28:37,640 --> 01:28:40,759
Speaker 1: We'll see, haven't had a real congressional accounting of elite

1778
01:28:40,760 --> 01:28:43,479
Speaker 1: since the Church Committee in the nineteen seventies. And we

1779
01:28:43,520 --> 01:28:45,600
Speaker 1: live in a very very different country today than we

1780
01:28:45,640 --> 01:28:48,120
Speaker 1: did then. Until then we can come together with this

1781
01:28:48,479 --> 01:28:51,320
Speaker 1: no amnesty for now. I mean, look, Christl, I get

1782
01:28:51,360 --> 01:28:53,600
Speaker 1: where she's coming from, Like I get why it's on

1783
01:28:53,640 --> 01:28:55,720
Speaker 1: common And if you want to hear my reaction to

1784
01:28:55,760 --> 01:29:02,600
Speaker 1: Cyber's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com.

1785
01:29:02,680 --> 01:29:04,960
Speaker 1: Very excited to talk to our guest today as someone

1786
01:29:05,000 --> 01:29:08,800
Speaker 1: whose research I've been citing relentlessly for the past several weeks.

1787
01:29:08,800 --> 01:29:10,599
Speaker 1: You guys are probably sick of hearing about it from

1788
01:29:10,640 --> 01:29:12,400
Speaker 1: me at least, so I thought I would bring the

1789
01:29:12,439 --> 01:29:15,400
Speaker 1: man himself in. Stan Greenberg is a founding partner of

1790
01:29:15,400 --> 01:29:18,479
Speaker 1: Greenberg Research Democracy Corp. And climate policy and strategy. He's

1791
01:29:18,520 --> 01:29:22,160
Speaker 1: also a Prospect board member and is author of It's

1792
01:29:22,200 --> 01:29:25,080
Speaker 1: the Middle Class Stupid. Great to have you, sir, Welcome,

1793
01:29:25,120 --> 01:29:28,479
Speaker 1: Good is you, sir, Thank you, Thank you for having

1794
01:29:28,479 --> 01:29:32,000
Speaker 1: me at such a critical point. Yes, absolutely so. You've

1795
01:29:32,040 --> 01:29:34,879
Speaker 1: been trying to sound the alarm about the democratic messaging

1796
01:29:35,000 --> 01:29:38,240
Speaker 1: or frankly, the lack thereof, in terms of the economy

1797
01:29:38,240 --> 01:29:41,880
Speaker 1: and what they would affirmatively do if voters do handpower

1798
01:29:41,960 --> 01:29:44,439
Speaker 1: back to them after the midterm elections. One way you

1799
01:29:44,439 --> 01:29:47,439
Speaker 1: did that was in a recent you labeled it or

1800
01:29:47,479 --> 01:29:49,479
Speaker 1: titled it memo to Democrats. Let's put this up on

1801
01:29:49,520 --> 01:29:52,960
Speaker 1: the screen in the American Prospects. And this is with

1802
01:29:53,280 --> 01:29:57,920
Speaker 1: a number of other polsters and strategists. You say, we

1803
01:29:57,960 --> 01:30:00,479
Speaker 1: will win this selection if we convince voter we care

1804
01:30:00,560 --> 01:30:04,479
Speaker 1: about their economic well being. So you did some focus

1805
01:30:04,560 --> 01:30:08,960
Speaker 1: groups and came away with some really specific recommendations for

1806
01:30:09,200 --> 01:30:12,080
Speaker 1: Democrats in terms of what they should be selling to

1807
01:30:12,160 --> 01:30:15,160
Speaker 1: the voters. What did you find in those focus groups?

1808
01:30:17,160 --> 01:30:19,080
Speaker 1: Look what I what I found both you know in

1809
01:30:19,240 --> 01:30:23,000
Speaker 1: surveys you know and you know, and is that you

1810
01:30:23,160 --> 01:30:25,800
Speaker 1: have to start with the cost of living. This is

1811
01:30:25,840 --> 01:30:30,280
Speaker 1: a cost of living plus election. That's what I called it. Yes,

1812
01:30:30,720 --> 01:30:34,640
Speaker 1: abortion is going to be a very important piece. The

1813
01:30:35,040 --> 01:30:39,320
Speaker 1: assault weapons are a very important piece, the extremism a

1814
01:30:39,400 --> 01:30:43,320
Speaker 1: very important piece. But it's a cost of living election.

1815
01:30:43,680 --> 01:30:47,000
Speaker 1: Plus you have to start there. People have to hear

1816
01:30:47,920 --> 01:30:49,960
Speaker 1: you know that you understand they haven't seen a pay

1817
01:30:50,040 --> 01:30:54,040
Speaker 1: raise in decades, and the elites think otherwise, Washington is

1818
01:30:54,040 --> 01:30:57,840
Speaker 1: out of touch, and you have to be clear that

1819
01:30:58,240 --> 01:30:59,960
Speaker 1: the cost of living. You know, Look, we know the

1820
01:31:00,360 --> 01:31:03,439
Speaker 1: cost of living. This hyper inflation was not caused by

1821
01:31:03,520 --> 01:31:07,440
Speaker 1: Joe Biden or Democrats or government. It was caused globally

1822
01:31:07,560 --> 01:31:12,120
Speaker 1: by the pandemic, by the cutoff of energy. People understand it.

1823
01:31:12,120 --> 01:31:15,680
Speaker 1: They're not stupid. They understand this is global. They don't

1824
01:31:15,720 --> 01:31:19,240
Speaker 1: think Joe Biden created this. But when you have hyperinflation

1825
01:31:20,479 --> 01:31:25,320
Speaker 1: on top of decades of declining wages, the only thing

1826
01:31:25,360 --> 01:31:27,519
Speaker 1: people want to hear is how you can help them.

1827
01:31:28,800 --> 01:31:33,080
Speaker 1: And Democrats have been helping them, and Republicans have been

1828
01:31:33,080 --> 01:31:35,639
Speaker 1: making it worse, and then in fact they only backed

1829
01:31:35,720 --> 01:31:41,040
Speaker 1: the big corporations. They fight all of these changes. So

1830
01:31:41,080 --> 01:31:45,960
Speaker 1: it's straightforward, but they have to hear out of your mouth. Look,

1831
01:31:46,000 --> 01:31:49,600
Speaker 1: I listened to Ryan you know this morning you know,

1832
01:31:49,640 --> 01:31:52,519
Speaker 1: Tim Ryan does get it. He knows he starts there.

1833
01:31:52,640 --> 01:31:55,760
Speaker 1: People have to hear you start on the economy. You

1834
01:31:55,840 --> 01:31:59,879
Speaker 1: can't be going to something else than deal with the economy.

1835
01:32:00,080 --> 01:32:04,040
Speaker 1: Were on the cliff. They don't think Republicans are going

1836
01:32:04,080 --> 01:32:07,439
Speaker 1: to be much help. Democrats have been and so it's

1837
01:32:07,439 --> 01:32:10,200
Speaker 1: been I've been tearing my hair out. I've said, it's

1838
01:32:10,240 --> 01:32:13,320
Speaker 1: not rocket science, but I'm tearing my heart at you know,

1839
01:32:13,360 --> 01:32:17,960
Speaker 1: my hair out that much. I'm okay, but the Hairbut

1840
01:32:18,320 --> 01:32:24,080
Speaker 1: that Democrats have not embraced this obvious message. Yeah, you

1841
01:32:24,160 --> 01:32:26,200
Speaker 1: famously said, we read it here on the show. If

1842
01:32:26,240 --> 01:32:28,559
Speaker 1: your goal is to win an economic argument, go on morning,

1843
01:32:28,600 --> 01:32:30,559
Speaker 1: Joel Joe. If the goal is to win an election,

1844
01:32:30,760 --> 01:32:34,200
Speaker 1: look at the fucking data whenever you what do you

1845
01:32:34,240 --> 01:32:39,120
Speaker 1: think the most salient data that you violated is the

1846
01:32:39,160 --> 01:32:42,200
Speaker 1: most salient data that these Democratic candidate should be paying

1847
01:32:42,200 --> 01:32:50,479
Speaker 1: attention to. Look, cost of living is the heart of it. Now. Look, look,

1848
01:32:50,520 --> 01:32:52,720
Speaker 1: I you know I worked in various places in the

1849
01:32:52,960 --> 01:32:56,639
Speaker 1: in the world, not just the US, and so the

1850
01:32:56,680 --> 01:32:59,800
Speaker 1: pandemic d of prices, but when you have the cut

1851
01:32:59,800 --> 01:33:03,160
Speaker 1: off of Russian energy, you had the spike of energy

1852
01:33:03,320 --> 01:33:08,320
Speaker 1: unbelievable energy costs, and the elections became who is going

1853
01:33:08,400 --> 01:33:11,200
Speaker 1: to help people with the cost of So I added

1854
01:33:12,160 --> 01:33:14,320
Speaker 1: cost of living to my surveys. I have inflation, and

1855
01:33:14,320 --> 01:33:17,479
Speaker 1: I have unemployment, you know, in the economy overall, but

1856
01:33:17,560 --> 01:33:21,760
Speaker 1: it's cost of living that's off the top now I found.

1857
01:33:21,840 --> 01:33:26,560
Speaker 1: I added that to my surveys in Britain and I

1858
01:33:26,600 --> 01:33:29,960
Speaker 1: included in my surveys here and it's like a majority

1859
01:33:30,000 --> 01:33:33,880
Speaker 1: of it above any other issue. It's the cost of living.

1860
01:33:34,000 --> 01:33:36,599
Speaker 1: And so how do you help people, you know, deal

1861
01:33:36,640 --> 01:33:38,439
Speaker 1: with the fact that jobs don't pay enough to live

1862
01:33:38,479 --> 01:33:42,519
Speaker 1: on and they've been struggling for years. And you know,

1863
01:33:42,640 --> 01:33:48,040
Speaker 1: Democrats did that with the Affordable Care Act and expanding Medicaid.

1864
01:33:48,520 --> 01:33:52,639
Speaker 1: They did it in the panddemic, and with the child

1865
01:33:52,680 --> 01:33:56,680
Speaker 1: tax credit, you know, with direct household payments, help on

1866
01:33:56,800 --> 01:33:59,839
Speaker 1: healthcare costs, and we passed at the end of this concress.

1867
01:33:59,880 --> 01:34:03,200
Speaker 1: We have a real story to tell and real contrast.

1868
01:34:03,920 --> 01:34:08,000
Speaker 1: But we have to embrace you. It's not like the

1869
01:34:08,280 --> 01:34:11,360
Speaker 1: we should be reluctant, you know, because inflation is high.

1870
01:34:11,760 --> 01:34:16,640
Speaker 1: It's high everywhere in the world, not caused by Democrats,

1871
01:34:16,680 --> 01:34:19,000
Speaker 1: not caused by this government, not caused by jo Biden

1872
01:34:19,600 --> 01:34:22,840
Speaker 1: embrace it, owned it, and you know, and use it

1873
01:34:22,880 --> 01:34:27,519
Speaker 1: to empathize with what people are experiencing. The So the

1874
01:34:27,560 --> 01:34:30,160
Speaker 1: Democrats are reluctant to do this, you know, the White

1875
01:34:30,160 --> 01:34:33,360
Speaker 1: House for months and months and months, you know, I've

1876
01:34:33,360 --> 01:34:35,679
Speaker 1: been trying to convince people as a good economy. Two

1877
01:34:35,680 --> 01:34:41,439
Speaker 1: thirds I think this economy is awful. Yeah, you can't

1878
01:34:41,479 --> 01:34:45,040
Speaker 1: win that debate, right, people know what they're experiencing in

1879
01:34:45,080 --> 01:34:49,160
Speaker 1: their own lives, you know. And we talked about some

1880
01:34:49,200 --> 01:34:51,599
Speaker 1: of the numbers earlier about like the split in terms

1881
01:34:51,600 --> 01:34:55,240
Speaker 1: of ad dollars, Democrats across the country spending ten times

1882
01:34:55,280 --> 01:35:00,799
Speaker 1: more on ads focused on abortion versus economic issues, which seems,

1883
01:35:00,880 --> 01:35:02,639
Speaker 1: you know, seems to be an issue as they had

1884
01:35:02,640 --> 01:35:05,080
Speaker 1: down the stretch here, and Republicans are winning voters who

1885
01:35:05,080 --> 01:35:06,760
Speaker 1: say their number one issue is the economy, and the

1886
01:35:06,800 --> 01:35:10,040
Speaker 1: majority of voters say that is their number one issue. Here.

1887
01:35:10,360 --> 01:35:12,680
Speaker 1: Another thing that you pointed to, and I think this

1888
01:35:12,800 --> 01:35:14,559
Speaker 1: was in that Politico piece whor he had that great

1889
01:35:14,640 --> 01:35:17,960
Speaker 1: quote quote that Sager just read. You were saying, one

1890
01:35:17,960 --> 01:35:21,120
Speaker 1: of the worst messages is if you just talk about

1891
01:35:21,400 --> 01:35:23,960
Speaker 1: the record so far and see all of the great

1892
01:35:23,960 --> 01:35:27,320
Speaker 1: things that we did for you, without also talking about

1893
01:35:27,360 --> 01:35:29,720
Speaker 1: how it's not enough. In here affirmatively is what we

1894
01:35:29,760 --> 01:35:31,640
Speaker 1: will do for you in the future, and how we

1895
01:35:31,640 --> 01:35:34,200
Speaker 1: will continue to make things, you know, to make sure

1896
01:35:34,240 --> 01:35:38,559
Speaker 1: that things improve for you. I mean, it's really important

1897
01:35:38,560 --> 01:35:42,560
Speaker 1: that you brought that up, because we were so frustrated

1898
01:35:43,240 --> 01:35:45,960
Speaker 1: by the failure, you know, to pass you know, the

1899
01:35:46,040 --> 01:35:49,040
Speaker 1: legislation we thought was going to happen, you know last year,

1900
01:35:49,360 --> 01:35:51,200
Speaker 1: you know, before Christmas, there was going to be the

1901
01:35:51,240 --> 01:35:56,200
Speaker 1: celebration of this major, major passive legislation. And for months

1902
01:35:56,240 --> 01:35:59,280
Speaker 1: and months, you know, we've been just depressed, you know

1903
01:35:59,400 --> 01:36:02,200
Speaker 1: about you know, what the Congress has done, even though

1904
01:36:02,200 --> 01:36:05,960
Speaker 1: it had done a lot. When did finally pass something,

1905
01:36:07,240 --> 01:36:10,800
Speaker 1: the Congress embraced that, and then you know went to

1906
01:36:11,280 --> 01:36:14,400
Speaker 1: the public saying, look, how good a job done. We

1907
01:36:14,520 --> 01:36:17,720
Speaker 1: kept our promises, we've delivered you know, X, Y and Z.

1908
01:36:18,600 --> 01:36:21,519
Speaker 1: Look when you have two thirds wrong track and two

1909
01:36:21,560 --> 01:36:25,639
Speaker 1: thirds saying the economy sucks and their lives are going

1910
01:36:26,000 --> 01:36:27,519
Speaker 1: the age of a clip, they don't want to hear

1911
01:36:27,560 --> 01:36:30,559
Speaker 1: what a great job you've done. They want to hear

1912
01:36:30,600 --> 01:36:32,439
Speaker 1: what you what you're doing for them, and how you're

1913
01:36:32,479 --> 01:36:36,799
Speaker 1: helping them. The focus is not on reelecting me because

1914
01:36:36,920 --> 01:36:41,280
Speaker 1: of the checklist of things I accomplished, and that's our

1915
01:36:41,280 --> 01:36:44,240
Speaker 1: Democrats are still doing that, you know, and it's look,

1916
01:36:45,000 --> 01:36:48,360
Speaker 1: it's important to accomplish these things, but that's about that's

1917
01:36:48,400 --> 01:36:51,519
Speaker 1: so self centered. You got to focus on the voter,

1918
01:36:52,760 --> 01:36:55,360
Speaker 1: and the voter is hurting and we're helping and they're not.

1919
01:36:55,760 --> 01:36:59,080
Speaker 1: They're bringing it worse. So one of the things that

1920
01:36:59,120 --> 01:37:01,639
Speaker 1: you cited there was too Ryan. I mean, look, maybe

1921
01:37:01,680 --> 01:37:04,040
Speaker 1: you disagree, but I think it's very likely he's going

1922
01:37:04,080 --> 01:37:06,800
Speaker 1: to lose. So my question to you would be, even

1923
01:37:06,840 --> 01:37:10,400
Speaker 1: if they did embrace this strategy, was it uh is

1924
01:37:10,439 --> 01:37:12,360
Speaker 1: it more of a game of margins by how much

1925
01:37:12,360 --> 01:37:13,600
Speaker 1: you lose by? Or do you think they actually had

1926
01:37:13,600 --> 01:37:19,000
Speaker 1: a shot at winning? You know O highlight, Look, Ohio

1927
01:37:19,080 --> 01:37:21,920
Speaker 1: is you know tough, you know the but you know,

1928
01:37:22,240 --> 01:37:27,040
Speaker 1: if anybody can do it, it's Jim Ryan as a leader.

1929
01:37:27,840 --> 01:37:31,800
Speaker 1: He embraced this messaging from the very beginning. You know,

1930
01:37:31,800 --> 01:37:34,800
Speaker 1: he believes it in his soul. He's you can tell

1931
01:37:34,840 --> 01:37:38,920
Speaker 1: with him. He's upset that working people, what working people

1932
01:37:38,960 --> 01:37:42,000
Speaker 1: are going through. To be honest, most Democrats are not.

1933
01:37:42,800 --> 01:37:45,599
Speaker 1: They don't wake up every day saying people haven't had

1934
01:37:45,600 --> 01:37:50,639
Speaker 1: a pay raise in two decades, and I'm angry about that. Instead,

1935
01:37:50,640 --> 01:37:54,439
Speaker 1: they've been trying to convince people this is a dynamic economy. Uh,

1936
01:37:54,600 --> 01:37:58,160
Speaker 1: pass the infrastructure bill. It's going to grow in the future. No,

1937
01:37:58,680 --> 01:38:01,439
Speaker 1: if an economy is not produced rising way to their livings,

1938
01:38:02,520 --> 01:38:07,880
Speaker 1: it's falling. And he sounds angry about that, where most

1939
01:38:07,880 --> 01:38:13,120
Speaker 1: Democrats aren't. So that's the starting book. Yeah, and you

1940
01:38:13,160 --> 01:38:16,920
Speaker 1: know that is not a tactic. It is a core

1941
01:38:18,000 --> 01:38:21,920
Speaker 1: essential empathy and recognition of what's happening to most working

1942
01:38:22,000 --> 01:38:27,720
Speaker 1: people and feeling it and knowing you won't change well said. Yeah,

1943
01:38:27,720 --> 01:38:30,519
Speaker 1: I think that's well said. And so finally we covered

1944
01:38:30,520 --> 01:38:33,720
Speaker 1: in our show today the president's big speech last night

1945
01:38:34,080 --> 01:38:37,320
Speaker 1: focused on January sixth, focused on the threats to democracy.

1946
01:38:37,360 --> 01:38:40,000
Speaker 1: This was kind of his big vinal closing pitch in

1947
01:38:40,080 --> 01:38:43,680
Speaker 1: terms of mid terms. You know, put aside, Look, we

1948
01:38:43,720 --> 01:38:46,599
Speaker 1: all think future of democracy is important here, there's no

1949
01:38:46,640 --> 01:38:50,639
Speaker 1: doubt about that. But in terms of politically a closing

1950
01:38:50,680 --> 01:38:53,240
Speaker 1: pitch to the voters, do you think that that was

1951
01:38:53,280 --> 01:38:57,559
Speaker 1: the right direction to go in? I think people have

1952
01:38:57,640 --> 01:39:01,280
Speaker 1: to hear that we are consumed with become when we

1953
01:39:01,320 --> 01:39:06,000
Speaker 1: have hyperinflation. How could you be carrying without anything else.

1954
01:39:06,479 --> 01:39:08,400
Speaker 1: They start with that. I mean, you obviously moved in

1955
01:39:08,439 --> 01:39:11,000
Speaker 1: them UK Senior move the other three. But they have

1956
01:39:11,080 --> 01:39:14,840
Speaker 1: to hear that the most important thing to you is

1957
01:39:14,920 --> 01:39:18,960
Speaker 1: doing something about the economy, which is in this context

1958
01:39:19,400 --> 01:39:22,280
Speaker 1: is helping people with the high cost of living, and

1959
01:39:22,360 --> 01:39:25,639
Speaker 1: Democrats are actually doing that on healthcare mass and drug

1960
01:39:25,680 --> 01:39:28,960
Speaker 1: costs and tax cuts. I think that is all very

1961
01:39:29,000 --> 01:39:31,160
Speaker 1: well said. Thank you so much for spending a little

1962
01:39:31,160 --> 01:39:33,519
Speaker 1: bit of time with us to explain it yourself, helping

1963
01:39:33,600 --> 01:39:37,040
Speaker 1: me get out the word. Appreciate it very much, sir.

1964
01:39:37,800 --> 01:39:39,720
Speaker 1: Thank you guys so much for watching. We really appreciate it.

1965
01:39:39,760 --> 01:39:41,599
Speaker 1: Go ahead and become a premium debscriber today. You could

1966
01:39:41,600 --> 01:39:44,280
Speaker 1: support all of our work. We've got counterpoints tomorrow. It's

1967
01:39:44,280 --> 01:39:47,200
Speaker 1: gonna be a fantastic show. We've got the incredible live

1968
01:39:47,200 --> 01:39:48,640
Speaker 1: stream that is planned. Like we said, there will be

1969
01:39:48,640 --> 01:39:51,120
Speaker 1: a previoum benefit there to be announced very very soon.

1970
01:39:51,120 --> 01:39:53,919
Speaker 1: We've got some new hires which were made only possible

1971
01:39:54,120 --> 01:39:56,360
Speaker 1: by our premium sub So we love you guys so much.

1972
01:39:56,400 --> 01:39:58,639
Speaker 1: We think about you every single day, and we're really

1973
01:39:58,680 --> 01:40:01,639
Speaker 1: excited to give you fantast past coverage every single day

1974
01:40:01,640 --> 01:40:04,080
Speaker 1: next week. Yeah, during the election. Yeah so actually, so

1975
01:40:04,120 --> 01:40:07,080
Speaker 1: we have the midterm live stream starting at seven pm

1976
01:40:07,160 --> 01:40:09,479
Speaker 1: with all of our whole cast of characters and people

1977
01:40:09,520 --> 01:40:11,759
Speaker 1: on the ground and Pennsylvania and all that good stuff.

1978
01:40:11,800 --> 01:40:13,680
Speaker 1: And we are going to have between Us and Counterpoints

1979
01:40:13,680 --> 01:40:16,000
Speaker 1: a show every single day next week. So we're going

1980
01:40:16,040 --> 01:40:18,160
Speaker 1: all in on the midterm coverage. See how this thing

1981
01:40:18,320 --> 01:40:21,320
Speaker 1: turns out. And we hope you guys have a wonderful day,

1982
01:40:21,360 --> 01:40:23,599
Speaker 1: great weekend, enjoy Counterpoints. We'll see you back here next week.