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Speaker 1: From UFOs to psychic powers and government conspiracies. History is

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Speaker 1: riddled with unexplained events. You can turn back now or

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Speaker 1: learn the stuff they don't want you to know. A

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Speaker 1: production of I Heart Radio. Hello, welcome back to the show.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt, my name is Nol. They called

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Speaker 1: me Ben. We're joined as always with our super producer

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Speaker 1: Paul Mission Controlled decond. Most importantly, you are you. You

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Speaker 1: are here, and that makes this the stuff they don't

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Speaker 1: want you to know. This week we are focusing on

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Speaker 1: a couple of issues related to the conflict between Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: NATO AK, the Global West, and Russia. We're probably going

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Speaker 1: to do some more episodes about this, as you know,

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Speaker 1: follow conspiracy realist. UH. We don't always uh we're not

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Speaker 1: always eager to cover ongoing events because no one yet,

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Speaker 1: not even DARPA, can predict the future. But what we

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Speaker 1: can do, what we must do, is dive into the

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Speaker 1: context behind this conflict. It's crucial, it's crazy, and in

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Speaker 1: some cases it's very very much the stuff they don't

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Speaker 1: want you to know. So the story starts way before

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Speaker 1: the current conflict. It starts way before annexation or retaking

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Speaker 1: of Crimea. Here are the facts. First thing, I think

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Speaker 1: we can say it because we're based in the US.

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Speaker 1: Until fairly recently, until in March, a lot of people

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Speaker 1: in the US would not have been able to reliably

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Speaker 1: point out Ukraine on a map. And that's not that's

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Speaker 1: not a ding on any resident of the US. It's

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Speaker 1: just it's there are a lot of countries, and they

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Speaker 1: would have known that Ukraine was in Europe, but would

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Speaker 1: have you know, if they had a blank map, they

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Speaker 1: would have maybe had a tough time figuring out which

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Speaker 1: one was Ukraine. I mean, I think a lot of

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Speaker 1: people probably embarrassing the mistake Ukrainians for Russians. Sometimes they're written,

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Speaker 1: language looks similar, there's a similarity in the accent. But

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Speaker 1: I have a feeling that is going to become a

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Speaker 1: very unpopular mistake to make. Yeah, you know, I know

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Speaker 1: when you say that, for a second, I had deja vu,

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Speaker 1: and then I can't remember if we had a very similar,

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Speaker 1: similarly accurate conversation several years ago. In two it's you're

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Speaker 1: you're absolutely right, and they share, as we'll find um

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Speaker 1: a very close, very connected cultural history with several other

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Speaker 1: modern day countries in the area. I mean, it is

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Speaker 1: a shame that the country was so unfamiliar to so

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Speaker 1: many Americans, because if you just look at the facts,

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Speaker 1: Ukraine is, has been, and will remain to be a

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Speaker 1: resource giant. I learned so many weird trade facts about

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Speaker 1: Ukraine over the past three weeks or so, just looking

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Speaker 1: into looking into stuff, looking past the headlines. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think we all have, yeah, for sure, and that would

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Speaker 1: make them sort of like a powerhouse in and of themselves,

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Speaker 1: you know, in terms of imports and exports, and you know,

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Speaker 1: being a global citizen in terms of the economy. Correct, yes, sir,

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Speaker 1: everything from uranium to titanium, from shale gas reserves to

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Speaker 1: barley and wheat. They're also a transit country for a

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Speaker 1: lot of Western Europe's energy resources. And not for nothing

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Speaker 1: was Ukraine often called the bread basket of the Soviet

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Speaker 1: Union or the bread basket of Russia or Europe even

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Speaker 1: I mean, okay, the b thing. I don't know why

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Speaker 1: that surprises me. I put in a list of all

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Speaker 1: these exports that Ukraine has, but they are the fifth

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Speaker 1: biggest B producer in the world. Who would have thought that.

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Speaker 1: I mean a lot of people Ukraine are like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think the three of us knew in

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Speaker 1: terms of like honey bees, like for you know that

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Speaker 1: kind of thing. Just bees man, just just I I

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Speaker 1: assume honey bees and not carpenter bees. But I do

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Speaker 1: love the I mean, you know, people that are setting

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Speaker 1: up bee farms, they need like stock to start with, right,

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Speaker 1: and then sometimes you want you want to get the

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Speaker 1: good bees. So I guess that's where Ukraine comes in.

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Speaker 1: I just love the idea that's somewhere out there in

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Speaker 1: uh in Eastern Europe, there's a business tycoon, a business tycoon,

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Speaker 1: and people are like, I know, sorry, and people are like, hey,

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Speaker 1: what do you do for a living? It's like I'm

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Speaker 1: in the bees and he's telling the truth or she.

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Speaker 1: So this place isn't just a resource giant. It is

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Speaker 1: also a very ancient land. If you look back to

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Speaker 1: the earliest traces of human habitation, we're talking tens of

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Speaker 1: thousands of years ago. If you lived in Europe from

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Speaker 1: like the ninth to eleventh century uh CE, that is,

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Speaker 1: you would see that a place, an empire called Kievan

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Speaker 1: Rus would have been the largest empire in your part

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Speaker 1: of the world if you were in Eastern Europe, and

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Speaker 1: this would have been well before it was part of

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Speaker 1: the Soviet Union, or like ruled by a czar from

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Speaker 1: from Moscow correct correct way way way way to ten. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: kind of, that's that's kind of a golden age of

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Speaker 1: kilv or of Kievan russ Um. Today, if you look

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Speaker 1: at the modern cultures that sprang from this empire, Belarus, Russia, Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: they all claim ancestry from that empire. And it makes sense.

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Speaker 1: I mean, in Belarus and Russia, it's in the name.

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Speaker 1: They just went with that name, and uh yeah, and

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Speaker 1: it's fair to say that right now propaganda aside. Right now, Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: which is a democracy, is overwhelmingly in favor of remaining

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Speaker 1: an independent sovereign state. But it's important to note the

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Speaker 1: population is not on a lithic there. There are a

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Speaker 1: lot of people in the eastern area of Ukraine that

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Speaker 1: speak Russian, they're ethnically Russian. There. Maybe some of them

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Speaker 1: are not necessarily opposed to Russia becoming once again a

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Speaker 1: hegemonic force and then functioning is like a vassal or

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Speaker 1: client state, but that's not the majority of Ukrainian opinion.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna recommend the video everybody watch after you listen

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Speaker 1: to this episode. It's from Gravitas Plus. It's titled Explained

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Speaker 1: the Russia Ukraine Crisis. It goes over a map that

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Speaker 1: shows exactly where on that eastern side of Ukraine where

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Speaker 1: the Russian speaking populations are that would probably be more

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Speaker 1: likely to want intervention from Russia. Uh, and it is

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Speaker 1: a very like small relative chunk right compared to the

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Speaker 1: rest of Ukraine. As you're saying, Ben, there's also a

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Speaker 1: documentary that UM I have not gotten to yet, but

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Speaker 1: I plan to. It's called Winter on Fire Ukraine's Fight

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Speaker 1: for Freedom that really goes very deep into all of

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Speaker 1: these specific kind of cultural differences in the history of

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Speaker 1: Ukraine and its relationship with with Russia, which is complicated

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Speaker 1: and fraught, but it is important context here. And you know, obviously,

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Speaker 1: when we're saying there are um Russian speaking areas of

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Speaker 1: the country where some people might be more in support

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Speaker 1: of the Russian perspective in this conflict, that is by

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Speaker 1: no means us saying that the entirety of that region

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Speaker 1: is in support. There is an open invasion, a conflict,

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Speaker 1: a war, um. But Russian historians have a very different

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Speaker 1: idea of how the present state of affairs came to be.

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Speaker 1: And a bit of a different narrative of how how

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Speaker 1: we got there. So they consider Kievan Rus to be

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Speaker 1: like the first period of Russian history. So while that

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Speaker 1: modern conflict, or this modern conflict may seem to have

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Speaker 1: relatively recent beginnings to many outside ors, it is mission

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Speaker 1: critical to understand that the makings of this current situation

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Speaker 1: date far back into antiquity. And we're talking about Russian

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Speaker 1: historians as in, you know, academics that specialize in the

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Speaker 1: history of Russia, not necessarily historians from Russia, who may

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Speaker 1: have a very different view of this, who are like

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Speaker 1: government sanctions in terms of the line, you know, the

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Speaker 1: party line. We know how that narrative can be manipulated

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Speaker 1: and made into propaganda. Yeah, but we we do have

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Speaker 1: to acknowledge KIV and roots from which these modern cultures sprang.

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Speaker 1: And when we're talking about history, a lot of times

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Speaker 1: when you're hearing some policy wonk er Boffen talk about

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Speaker 1: uh historical context for this conflict, they're going to be

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Speaker 1: talking about the U S. S R. Because to understand

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Speaker 1: what's happening in Ukraine and in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea,

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Speaker 1: we have to get past the headlines to the story

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Speaker 1: of the Soviet Union. For many, many of years, Ukraine

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Speaker 1: was part of the U S s R. It was

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Speaker 1: a Soviet republic and it remains so all the way

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Speaker 1: up to the dissolution or the fall of the USSR

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Speaker 1: and the Soviet Union in nineteen one. Up until that time,

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Speaker 1: Ukraine was the number two kid on the block b

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Speaker 1: l oc block. It was, yeah, right, yeah, it was

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Speaker 1: the second most powerful republic and the other one, you know,

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Speaker 1: the number one was Russia, which at that time was

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Speaker 1: also a republic. What did it mean to be a

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Speaker 1: vassal state in that arrangement? Like, you know, it was

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Speaker 1: all kind of controlled from this hegemonic government in Moscow

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Speaker 1: and everyone sort of was beholden to that regime. Were

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Speaker 1: they trying to wipe out individual cultural differences and make

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Speaker 1: it more unified? Or what what would have felt like

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Speaker 1: to live in the U S s R in Ukraine

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Speaker 1: at that time? Yeah, So that's a good question. So

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Speaker 1: vassal state in general terms, is going to be a

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Speaker 1: state or a republic or whatever you wanna call it

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Speaker 1: that has some degree of independence in its internal affairs,

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Speaker 1: but when it comes to its foreign affairs, that's when

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Speaker 1: another state controls it. Basically, so like Ukraine may be

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Speaker 1: able to make laws that apply to its its own

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Speaker 1: borders or within its own sphere as a Soviet republic,

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Speaker 1: but then when it came to like who's going to

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Speaker 1: wage war with the you know, the Yankees, then that's

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Speaker 1: kind of a Moscow decision. So Ukraine achieved independence very

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Speaker 1: quickly after the dissolution of the U S SR in

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Speaker 1: a referendum where over UM in every region except for

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Speaker 1: Crimea voted for this. In Crimea it was Um that

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Speaker 1: voted for independence from the U S s R. Yes.

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Speaker 1: And what did the USSR have as well as the

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Speaker 1: United States and several other countries nukes, Lots and lots

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Speaker 1: of nukes. And Ukraine actually kind of had a lot

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Speaker 1: of the nukes, probably strategically because of how close they

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Speaker 1: were to the rest of Europe and other places that

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Speaker 1: you know, the Sovil Union would have wanted to attack

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Speaker 1: if they had to. Ukraine just give you a couple

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Speaker 1: of these numbers here. They had a hundred and seventy

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Speaker 1: six intercontinental ballistic missiles, twelve hundred over twelve hundred nuclear warheads,

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Speaker 1: forty four strategic bombers, seven hundred nuclear tipped cruise missiles,

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Speaker 1: two thousand tactical nuclear missiles, uh, lots and lots and

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Speaker 1: lots of facile material. They had the toy box for sure,

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Speaker 1: and it's weird because they only had that for a

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Speaker 1: few short years after their independence. In fact, Russia and

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Speaker 1: the United States teamed up. They worked together to d

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Speaker 1: nucleariz Ukraine with a series of diplomatic agreements. So what

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Speaker 1: happened is Kiev gave back, you know, gave Russia it's

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Speaker 1: nuclear warheads in exchange for a security treaty or a

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Speaker 1: security agreement where Russia said, Okay, we'll take the guns,

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Speaker 1: but don't worry, we got your back if anybody comes

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Speaker 1: comes at you sideways, and we also won't come at

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Speaker 1: you over you wanting independence. So it was kind of

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Speaker 1: a queer situation, you know, said a lot of things. Okay, okay,

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Speaker 1: I mean, hey, it took a while, you know, it

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Speaker 1: took a while for them to come at them over it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sure they weren't happy about it, but

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Speaker 1: at least they got their nukes back. That's a pretty

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Speaker 1: big flex. You declare independence and have this referendum and

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Speaker 1: then you're still holding onto Mother Russia's nukes. It's pretty

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Speaker 1: good bargaining chip, right, and at the at the time,

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Speaker 1: at the time, Ukraine did not have the ability to

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Speaker 1: control those nukes. It's a it's a weird situation like

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Speaker 1: Russia would be able to launch them. But they were,

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Speaker 1: you know, as as you guys point out, due to

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Speaker 1: strategic concerns they were located in Ukraine. But yes, they

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Speaker 1: did give them back. And unlike several other countries who

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Speaker 1: up to back from becoming a nuclear state, Ukraine was

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Speaker 1: not immediately demolished by the US. Those are just facts.

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Speaker 1: But let's look at Vladimir heard or Vladimir as I

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Speaker 1: think it would be called Ukraine. Um, you've heard a

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Speaker 1: lot of for a lot of stuff trying to like

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Speaker 1: read into the mind of one person, one very powerful,

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Speaker 1: dangerous person. If we stick to the facts, we know

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Speaker 1: that before he became the long time leader of post

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Speaker 1: Soviet Russia, Putin was a KGB officer earlier in his career,

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Speaker 1: and a lot has been made about his experience there.

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Speaker 1: And yes he was in the trade. He was he

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Speaker 1: was doing spiaget by work and intelligence work. Um. But

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Speaker 1: he also carried with him. This is an arguable because

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Speaker 1: he said it himself. Um, He and many in his

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Speaker 1: inner circle, often from that time, have long held several

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Speaker 1: iron clad beliefs. The one you're gonna hear most often

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Speaker 1: in the West is the post Soviet stance of Russia.

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Speaker 1: And it's a very firm stands. It's a red line

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Speaker 1: for them that no matter what, not, once not, never

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Speaker 1: can Ukraine join something called the North Atlantic Treaty Organization

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Speaker 1: or NATO. Not to be confused with the Japanese for

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Speaker 1: a minute, soybean NATO, which tastes like diaper smell. I

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Speaker 1: said it, that's whatever. How can they enforce that it's

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Speaker 1: just like part of the agreement for their independence or

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Speaker 1: obviously is it just more of a decorum thing. This

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Speaker 1: is a belief that is held by Vladimir Putino many

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Speaker 1: of his inner circle, like this cannot happen, This cannot stand,

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Speaker 1: It will not happen. To keep it from happening, I

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Speaker 1: got it. Yeah. Um, so let's let's talk about NATO

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Speaker 1: really quickly. Many of us know what it is. It was.

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Speaker 1: It's an organization that was formed back in nineteen forty

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Speaker 1: nine by nine because it was following World War Two.

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Speaker 1: It's an inner government military alliance, an alliance of individual

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Speaker 1: governments and countries. They basically got together after the war

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Speaker 1: and said, hey, if you mess with one of these countries,

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Speaker 1: boop boop boop wherever it is in the world, you're

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Speaker 1: messing with all of us. So don't cool. Uh, that's

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Speaker 1: really what NATO is. Yeah, we rolled deep. It's currently

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Speaker 1: made of twenty eight europe We rolled deep, says NATO

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Speaker 1: stuff they don't want you to know. Is not technically

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Speaker 1: a signatory member of NATO. We're a podcast and I

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Speaker 1: don't know if they take podcast yet, but so right

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Speaker 1: now they're twenty eight European countries and then Canada and

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Speaker 1: the US. That that is NATO. And there are ally

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Speaker 1: countries countries who are friendly with NATO and usually move

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Speaker 1: in step with them when their interests aligned, because again

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Speaker 1: countries do not have friends, they have interest So you'll

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Speaker 1: see Japan doing things in concert with NATO, for instance.

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Speaker 1: The thing is Russia is how to say, not super

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Speaker 1: gas about the idea. They don't love it. They don't

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Speaker 1: love this whole NATO thing that it's not their vibe,

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Speaker 1: and they especially don't love it when former states from

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Speaker 1: the Soviet Union end up joining NATO. In Russia's perspective

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Speaker 1: is an expansionist threat. There's not new information by any means.

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Speaker 1: They weren't shamalan ing people when they said, we don't

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Speaker 1: like NATO, don't get into our sphere of influence. But

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Speaker 1: that's still the only part of the equation. So anyone,

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Speaker 1: if you remember our earlier episode on on the annexation

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Speaker 1: of Crimea that March, it's clear that Russia and the

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Speaker 1: West again have two very different versions of history and

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Speaker 1: two very different takes on what the future of Ukraine

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Speaker 1: and the entirety of Eastern Europe should be. This conflict.

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Speaker 1: What we're saying is this conflict was a long time

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Speaker 1: in coming and there is a much bigger game at play.

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Speaker 1: We're talking, you know, we're cry havoc, let's slip the

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Speaker 1: dogs of war. Unfortunately, UM, a lot of a lot

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Speaker 1: of Americans, uh, might believe that the war began just

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Speaker 1: a few days ago in February of two. You know,

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Speaker 1: there was a lot of there's a lot of scuttle

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Speaker 1: but where people are saying, well, why are they just

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Speaker 1: why aren't they calling it an invasion? Why aren't and

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Speaker 1: now why aren't they calling it a war? Etcetera, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: But that belief is well intentioned but incorrect. Other people

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Speaker 1: might say, nope, the war actually started back in and

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Speaker 1: this likewise is not entirely accurate. But for the record,

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Speaker 1: if you ask a citizen of Ukraine how long they've

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Speaker 1: been at war with Russia, over seventy are gonna say

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Speaker 1: since Crimea. If if not before, that would have been

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Speaker 1: more of a cold war. Uh the what the stuff before? Yeah, well,

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Speaker 1: economic tensions, threats kind of stuff, but crimeas when the

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Speaker 1: tank treads hit the road. Basically, so the retaking our annexation, well,

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Speaker 1: it's play, we mean there of Crimea was most likely

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Speaker 1: sparked by the ousting of the president at the time,

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Speaker 1: a guy named Victor Yannakovich viktor Yanukovich's very pro Moscow

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Speaker 1: and when NATO and the Global West were making overtures

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Speaker 1: towards him, Uh, Moscow was making these overtures as well,

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Speaker 1: and he went closer to Moscow. And this was for

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Speaker 1: many people in Ukraine, this was controversial and they felt,

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Speaker 1: in fact that he might have been selling out the

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Speaker 1: country to Russia. Well, there's a trade deal with the

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Speaker 1: European European Union that was on the table that he rejected,

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Speaker 1: and he ended up taking a fifteen billion dollar bailout

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Speaker 1: essentially from Russia. Exactly that that's when stuff started going bad,

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Speaker 1: uh from a citizens perspective, when you saw protests and uh,

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Speaker 1: the he ended up having to leave in terms of

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Speaker 1: making Ukraine more beholden to Russia, and the citizens did

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Speaker 1: not care for that, right, Yeah, that was I mean,

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Speaker 1: because keep in mind, at this time there were still

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Speaker 1: people alive who remembered quite well the days of the U.

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Speaker 1: S s R. And additionally, and they remember several other tensions, conflicts,

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Speaker 1: um less than good things, things that are well would

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Speaker 1: call double plus un good anyway. But so this is

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Speaker 1: this is why it's fair to say that Russia's government,

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Speaker 1: including of course Vladmir Putin, saw the taking of Crimea

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Speaker 1: less and and you know what's going on in the

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Speaker 1: Eastern regions today less as a invasion and more as

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Speaker 1: a return to their equivalent of the good old days,

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Speaker 1: the days of empire. Another thing we point out in

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Speaker 1: our Crimea episode is that Ukraine only officially counted Crimea

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Speaker 1: as part of its land in nineteen fifty four, when

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Speaker 1: Nikita Khrushchev gifted the land to Ukraine, and he did

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Speaker 1: this partially out of sentimentality most likely, and then partially

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Speaker 1: as a powerful flex look what I can do, and

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Speaker 1: it kind of uh gave him his stripes in some

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Speaker 1: ways to do some other bigger things later down the line.

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Speaker 1: But to understand what this war is, where it came from,

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Speaker 1: and what the forces involved would like to see in

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Speaker 1: terms of outcome, we have to look at something the

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Speaker 1: West has been pretty shy about exploring an inaccurate way,

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Speaker 1: and that is the Russian perspective. So I propose we

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Speaker 1: pause for a word from our sponsors, check the news

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Speaker 1: before we continue, and then dive in or not or not,

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Speaker 1: just never check the news again and just be happy

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Speaker 1: until yeah, you know, definitely don't check your e trade

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Speaker 1: account because that's going to be very sad too. Here's

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Speaker 1: where it gets crazy. There's a long, long, long time

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Speaker 1: in the making. Russian media, as well as his political

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Speaker 1: power structure, offer repeated multiple instances of ideological, nationalistic, or

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Speaker 1: cultural rationalizations for gaining control of part of or all

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine. We can discuss those, but we also need

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Speaker 1: to know it again that ideology almost always functions as

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Speaker 1: window dressing for the real cause of most conflicts, and

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Speaker 1: the real cause of most conflict, it goes down to

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Speaker 1: stuff like access to land, access to security, access to resources. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: otherwise why take the gamble? You know, I'm sure we'll

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Speaker 1: get into it soon, But it seems like there's some

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Speaker 1: very serious consequences for what Putin is doing. So I

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Speaker 1: would think that his reasons for going in outweigh the potential,

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Speaker 1: you know, ramifications of all these sanctions on you know,

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Speaker 1: the economy of his country. It depends what the end

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Speaker 1: goals are, and we're trying to explore it. So let's

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Speaker 1: talk about some of the tools that Russia has in

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Speaker 1: its belt there when it comes to what it can

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Speaker 1: do to really flex on the rest of the world

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Speaker 1: as it's taking these kinds of actions and seeing such pushback.

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Speaker 1: The first one is one that I did not realize

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Speaker 1: until I don't know, a couple of weeks ago, and

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Speaker 1: and Ben al we had some conversations about this, but

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Speaker 1: just how important Russia is to the world's supply of

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Speaker 1: petroleum and gasoline? Yeah, I had I just had no idea. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: oh yeah, that's one of the uh, one of their

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Speaker 1: biggest flexes. So they control a huge chunk of the

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Speaker 1: fossil fuel energy upon which Western Europe is dependent. Another

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Speaker 1: tool in the belt. They have, of course a vast

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Speaker 1: stock of nuclear weapons, and not just a vast stock

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Speaker 1: of nuclear weapons, but also uh they have the know

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Speaker 1: how and the infrastructure to deploy those in some tremendously

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Speaker 1: successful ways. In theory, we're talking about the sub game

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Speaker 1: at that point, which is sharp. Remember the list of

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Speaker 1: you know, nuclear gadgets that Matt rattled off early in

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Speaker 1: the episode. I mean, you know, what would the Joker say,

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Speaker 1: you know, where does he where does he get these

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Speaker 1: toys or whatever? I mean, they've got like a ton

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Speaker 1: of different things that do different things, all with one

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Speaker 1: tragic and apocalyptic result. And kind of to your point,

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Speaker 1: there have been Remember that these weapons that were traded

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Speaker 1: back to Russia were being developed from you know, the

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Speaker 1: jump of nuclear technology up until that point, and you know,

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Speaker 1: more like again, when you think about there's no way

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Speaker 1: to prove if more weapons were in fact produced in

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Speaker 1: that amount of time or how many I don't think.

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Speaker 1: I don't think there's intel on exactly how many types

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Speaker 1: of nukes were developed or at a hand right now

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Speaker 1: since that time, since the large amount was traded. But

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Speaker 1: the as you said, the sub game is strong and

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Speaker 1: those subs carry nuclear armaments. They very much do, very

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Speaker 1: much do. And subs are tricky, our tricksy, as Golum

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Speaker 1: would to say. But that's not all up until up

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Speaker 1: until a few years back, one of the common arguments

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Speaker 1: you would hear from Cold War hawks was that Russia's

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Speaker 1: third tremendous power was their military might. And now seeing

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Speaker 1: what's what's been happening in Ukraine, UM, and seeing the

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Speaker 1: way deployment has worked out for them, UH, people are

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Speaker 1: increasingly skeptical about that idea of a great unstoppable military force. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: In concert with those powers, Russia also has clear needs,

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Speaker 1: both from a domestic perspective and from a geopolitical perspective.

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Speaker 1: A lot of the land, until climate change escalated, it's

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Speaker 1: past a certain threshold, opening up, you know, more arable

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Speaker 1: land and opening up northern trade routes right around the poles. UH.

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Speaker 1: Much of the land of Russia is unfailingly cartoonishly take

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Speaker 1: a drink, hidden, hospitable for the military to effectively project

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Speaker 1: like maritime or naval force. They need warm water ports.

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Speaker 1: They've been after warm water ports for a long long time.

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Speaker 1: It's a personal, perfectly rational ambition because warm water ports

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Speaker 1: are just know what they sound like, their ports that

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Speaker 1: don't freeze up and become unusable for much of the year. Secondly,

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Speaker 1: we have to look at what so we know what

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Speaker 1: capabilities are there, and just in very broad strokes, we

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Speaker 1: know some of the very broad needs. But we also

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Speaker 1: have to ask ourselves about the reasoning, the rationale propaganda aside.

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Speaker 1: It's in the world of geopolitics, it's pretty rare for

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Speaker 1: someone not to behave as a rational actor. What we

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Speaker 1: mean by that is, even if you do not agree

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Speaker 1: with the aims of arrival, you should be able to

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Speaker 1: suss out their calculus, the equations, the cost benefit they

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Speaker 1: went through to arrive at their stance. And the Russian

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Speaker 1: government seemed most blatantly in the statements in action by

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Speaker 1: Putin does seem to yearn to restore as much of

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Speaker 1: the former Russian Empire as possible. While those tactics might change,

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Speaker 1: the aim is clear. I remember off because we've talked

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Speaker 1: about this for a while off air on our Fascinating

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Speaker 1: group thread. I had texted you guys, and I just said,

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Speaker 1: beat me here, Paul, I said, did you guys catch

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Speaker 1: Putin's speech? It's lit, that's it's been interesting watching the

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Speaker 1: drips and drabs of his rhetoric that have leaked out, um,

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Speaker 1: you know through Russian national television and all that that

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Speaker 1: we're seeing over here on the news. Uh. He he

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Speaker 1: does a really interesting thing where he's seated like a

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00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 1: hundred feet or more away from his cabinet it I

428
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 1: guess he could call it. And he doesn't really take

429
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,159
Speaker 1: any guffh. Like there's a clip that's been making the

430
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 1: rounds where I forget who was one of his ministers

431
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: or whatever essentially is saying like, maybe we should give

432
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,199
Speaker 1: diplomacy a chance, you know, more or less, and he

433
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: just kind of browbeats the guy and essentially, you know,

434
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 1: heckles him until he just reverses course entirely. But I

435
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 1: just think the distance is really interesting between Putin and

436
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:28,040
Speaker 1: like at all of these places that he's at the

437
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 1: head of this giant boardroom table and again like a

438
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 1: hundred feet between him and and uh and his you know,

439
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 1: his his his officials. UM. I have a theory, Uh

440
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 1: maybe you'll get into a little later in the next

441
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 1: episode about why that he And yeah, that speech was

442
00:27:45,280 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 1: that speech absolutely lit? He can't you know, Uh, the

443
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,919
Speaker 1: lyrics will be worth writing. Maybe we'll get on that.

444
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 1: But the yes, so it is true that you can

445
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 1: you can see these speeches until hackers took down some

446
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 1: infrastrul online infrastructure from Russia. You could also see a

447
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 1: lot of Kremlin official translations of these speeches into English,

448
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 1: as well as essays that he had written. What we're

449
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,360
Speaker 1: saying is this didn't come out of nowhere. He's been

450
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 1: thinking about it for a long long time. Also, no,

451
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 1: I believe the clip you're mentioning. I first saw it

452
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: on the excellent last week Tonight with John Oliver. Yeah,

453
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 1: so you can check that out for free online if

454
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 1: you want to. In a sense of it, and it

455
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 1: is uncomfortable, what's what's happening? Uh, it's not to mention

456
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 1: that the other people that are seated are like fidgeting

457
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 1: the whole time and just clearly get terrified of the man,

458
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: you know, and not uh, I mean, I guess you'd

459
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 1: call them sick offense, But also like what choice do

460
00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:00,160
Speaker 1: they have? I don't know. I'm not trying to, like, um,

461
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: you know, empathize with them too hard because they are

462
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 1: in a position that requires them to be sick offense.

463
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 1: But then if they leave, who knows what happens then.

464
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 1: I mean, it just seems like a real catch twenty

465
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 1: two for some of those folks. But there's a lot

466
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: of seats were making and we should we should mention.

467
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 1: I don't think I mentioned this before. That clip specifically

468
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 1: is about supporting the independence that proclaimed independence of these

469
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 1: two areas that are located in a part of eastern

470
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 1: Ukraine called don Bass, and those are Donetsk and Luhansk.

471
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 1: So them just remembering that clip. So how how do

472
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 1: we know this long time in coming round? This idea

473
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:43,239
Speaker 1: of expansion, is this idea of um recovering, resurrecting in

474
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: some part the Russian Empire. Well, it's something we've talked

475
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 1: about in the past a little bit. In two thousand

476
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 1: and eight, Russia did something very similar where they attempted

477
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: to take not the entirety of a country, but some pieces.

478
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: Well it's it's ridiculous lea similar to the current situation

479
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: in Ukraine, where there are sections of a country that

480
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 1: do want to be a part of Russia again, or

481
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 1: at least they there are strong voices and numbers of

482
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 1: people who proclaimed to want to be a part of

483
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 1: Russia again, and no longer a part of the country

484
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 1: that they currently are in this case Georgia, and then

485
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 1: Russia just really really supports that really strongly, like, yeah,

486
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 1: that's a great idea, you should be a part of

487
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 1: thought of that. Well. But then there's conflict between the

488
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: country and you know, the section that wants to pull away, uh,

489
00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: and Russia supports that side that wants to pull away

490
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 1: with military might. And then there's some fighting and shelling

491
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 1: that occurs on the borders of those regions and separatists separatists,

492
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 1: and then Russia comes in with that military might, and

493
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: then it ends up becoming a bat like a full

494
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 1: on a full skill. I don't know what you call it.

495
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 1: Been a police action, a war, it's the thing that's

496
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 1: just under war basically, but a war military operation. But yes,

497
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 1: but in this case yes, But in this case, I

498
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 1: believe Georgia declare war when it was occurring. This is

499
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 1: showing us that a playbook of some sort exist and

500
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 1: it's something that we talked a little bit about in

501
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 1: previous episodes. Does Russia have a new respute and do

502
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: check that out? Uh. We'll also see something here that

503
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 1: doesn't get acknowledged as much because a lot of countries

504
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 1: use it, which is and it is a tactic that

505
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 1: all fairness the US has deployed in Latin America in

506
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: the past, which is, you surreptitiously train and supply people

507
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 1: that you are going to send in to accomplish your goals,

508
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: and then you pretend that they are independent freedom fighters, right,

509
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 1: and you just you just get kind of loose and

510
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 1: goosey and matrix dodgy when people ask you what you

511
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 1: mean by freedom right, like, what are they fighting for?

512
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 1: So that situation, um that that situation is out of

513
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 1: the Russian playbook Naputin era, definitely. And you will also

514
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: see that there is little hesitation in the in the

515
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 1: Russian government, increasingly less hesitation at deploying any means necessary

516
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 1: all but one so far, and hopefully that's still the

517
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 1: case when this episode comes out. And you will recognize,

518
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 1: as we were talking about NATO, the concept of you

519
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 1: attack one of us, we will use every means necessary

520
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: to defend that one country. It's what you're saying. Russia

521
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 1: will do the same thing. We will, we will do

522
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 1: everything we can to this exactly what they said during

523
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 1: the Georgian conflict. Well, do everything we can to support

524
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 1: those who wish to separate from Georgia. Maybe this is

525
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 1: a silly question, but just like for some housekeeping, what

526
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 1: are the criteria for becoming a member of NATO. Surely

527
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 1: it's about mutual um goals, you know, mutual priorities, and

528
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 1: also the ability to come to the aid of other

529
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 1: member nations. Well, so things kind of bite as I

530
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 1: take a long take a long time. So if you

531
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 1: want to if you want to join, you have to

532
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 1: first kind of pretty much declare that you're into the idea, like, hey,

533
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 1: I'm interested in joining NATO, and then if you want

534
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 1: to join, you enter in a kind of evaluation period.

535
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:30,959
Speaker 1: You have to meet some political, economic, and military standards.

536
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 1: So you have to uphold democracy. You've got to get

537
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 1: some human rights stuff, uh squared away, you know, tolerating diversity.

538
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 1: You have to be this is the neoliberal aspect. You

539
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 1: have to be making progress toward a market economy. You

540
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 1: gotta let those Western banks in, you know what I mean,

541
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 1: they want their cut. We'll talk about that later this week.

542
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 1: I don't know why that sounded like a messed up

543
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 1: children's show. Yeah, well, Ben, correct me if I'm wrong,

544
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 1: because the last thing you got. The last thing that

545
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 1: has to happen is you have to be voted in, right,

546
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 1: so standing members have to say yes, you may join.

547
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 1: Do you have to have a sponsor like joining a

548
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 1: fraternity or something like like like someone like puts forth

549
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,840
Speaker 1: their buddy nation to like join NATO. Or is it

550
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 1: all just about like literally submitting you know, a request

551
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 1: or you know, like I mean, it really does have

552
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 1: this very like club kind of frat vibe. To me.

553
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,920
Speaker 1: It is a club. It's it's it's a big club.

554
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 1: You have to essentially when you express this desire and

555
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 1: then you apply for a NATO membership action plan, which

556
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 1: is when they say, okay, let's check the democracy, let's

557
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 1: check the human rights, let's make sure you have a

558
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 1: market economy. Um. The civilian forces must be an ultimate

559
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:51,320
Speaker 1: control of the military. You've got to not be waging wars.

560
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 1: You have to be a good neighbor, you know, not

561
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 1: make wars on adjacent countries much less NATO members Yeah,

562
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 1: state farm VI, you know, yeah, exactly. And this Ukraine

563
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,280
Speaker 1: had in the past expressed a desire to join NATO

564
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 1: but had not been formally admitted, and that again would

565
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 1: have been a red line. Russia would have treated that

566
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 1: as a declaration of war from everything they've indicated, and

567
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 1: you'll you'll see all this um a lot of guessing,

568
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 1: a lot of tea leaf reading of as to Putin's

569
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 1: personal motivations. And we are an extraordinary situation because there

570
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:38,320
Speaker 1: is one person at the helm of Russia's geopolitical decision

571
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 1: making right now, quite honestly, and that's somewhat rare. You know,

572
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 1: in in the US, for example, or in the I

573
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,760
Speaker 1: don't know, the United Kingdom, and many many other countries.

574
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 1: It's not just one dude. It's not just one person

575
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 1: saying make it so all like Captain Picard or something. Instead,

576
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 1: we cause so much of this goes down to the

577
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 1: decisions of one person, one very intelligent, very dangerous person.

578
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 1: There's a lot of time spent trying to suss out

579
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 1: the inner workings of his mind. And that's not to

580
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 1: say this is not viable or valuable exploration, but it

581
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 1: may be more productive to measure actions and measure his

582
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 1: own statements. Right when people show you who they are,

583
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:30,279
Speaker 1: believe them. As tensions rose, Russia did something interesting. This

584
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 1: is another playbook move that happens a lot, oh god,

585
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 1: a lot throughout human history. Russia issued a list of

586
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:42,720
Speaker 1: demands that surprise, maybe not surprised, but definitely put Europe

587
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 1: and NATO and the US on their heels. They said, look,

588
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:51,319
Speaker 1: NATO asked to not only stop at eastward expansion, they

589
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 1: also have to deny membership to Ukraine again, never ever, ever,

590
00:36:55,360 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 1: not once let them in. And in addition, you had

591
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 1: a rollback troop deployment in any countries that joined NATO

592
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 1: after uh So, why this is kind of a poison pill. Well,

593
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 1: it's all kind of in an effort to demonize Ukraine

594
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 1: as well, right, like to set the stage for you know,

595
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 1: a perceived legitimate invasion. I mean again, the invasion is

596
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:26,359
Speaker 1: the wrong word. They certainly wouldn't use it, but intervention, right,

597
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 1: the idea of like they're up to no good. Um,

598
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 1: we are policing this part of the world, and we

599
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:36,400
Speaker 1: are within our rights to go in there and do

600
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 1: something about all of their horrible you know, satanic rituals

601
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:42,880
Speaker 1: they're performing. I mean, I'm joking, but like also, you know,

602
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 1: this is that level of like panic he kind of

603
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 1: um demonizing and just so you have an understanding of

604
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,439
Speaker 1: the strategic placement of some of the some of these

605
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,799
Speaker 1: countries that Russia is speaking of, countries that have joined

606
00:37:55,840 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 1: NATO since n here's just a short list here, Uh,

607
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 1: especially ones that are in Europe, where you can imagine

608
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 1: perhaps the strategic disadvantages that Russia feels by having NATO

609
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 1: countries so close to the Russia. The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Romania, UH, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia.

610
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 1: I mean really like if you North Macedonia, Montenegro, They're

611
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 1: all countries that are right in that space that Russia

612
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 1: is interested in. Yeah, exactly, So the NATO expansion is real.

613
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:40,959
Speaker 1: No one's making that part up. But if you look

614
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 1: again at this list of demands, the reason I'm calling

615
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 1: it a poison pill is because for some observers this

616
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 1: was like a broken record or for someone's wildly ambitious,

617
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 1: especially adding that UM troop rollback right, get us out

618
00:38:55,719 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 1: of missile range. But this is all so quite possibly

619
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 1: an old strategy that's existed in wartime conflicts before, which

620
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:11,919
Speaker 1: is here's the calculation. You ask for stuff that you

621
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 1: know nobody is going to say yes to, and you

622
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 1: know they're gonna say no to it, because what you

623
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 1: really want is not for them to do that. I mean,

624
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 1: be nice if they did, but everybody knows they're not

625
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 1: going to. What you want is to have a cause

626
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:29,440
Speaker 1: of spelly. You want to have now a rationalization to

627
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 1: go to war. You want to be able to go

628
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 1: on the international stage and say, hey, look we tried diplomacy,

629
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 1: right and now we have to uh, now we have

630
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 1: to defend ourselves. Right now, we have a reason to

631
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:47,399
Speaker 1: be we are we are being pushed into war now.

632
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 1: Really we're not waging it. It's a war protection. And

633
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 1: also add to this from putent statements, if you read them,

634
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 1: and you can find them online easily, if you read them.

635
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 1: He had repeatedly said, has repeatedly said, and will repeatedly

636
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 1: say in the future probably that Ukraine and Russia are

637
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 1: culturally one people, A single whole is a phrase he

638
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 1: used a couple of times, and interference from the West

639
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 1: changed that reality. He sees he questions or not even questions.

640
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 1: He he does not believe that Ukraine really exists as

641
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 1: an independent country. Uh. He sees the current government as illegitimate.

642
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 1: He's called them aggressively nationalists, he's called them fascist, he's

643
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 1: called them Nazis. Uh. He said they exist on land

644
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 1: that is historically and rightfully Russian. He said they never

645
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 1: had any stable traditions of real statehood and the condition

646
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 1: for peaceful relations that I thought this was interesting. The

647
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 1: conditions for peaceful relations between states, he says, more than

648
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 1: one occasion, is that they do not threaten the security

649
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 1: of other states. And coming from him, of all people,

650
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 1: that might sound a little hypocritical, uh, But from the

651
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 1: official Russian perspective, the government is defending areas that have

652
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 1: become self determined independent areas uh, from Nazis and extremists

653
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 1: in eastern Ukraine. Of course, maybe this is the time

654
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 1: when we point out that if Ukraine was somehow a

655
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 1: Nazi country, it would be highly unlikely that they elected

656
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:32,839
Speaker 1: their current president. Zelenski, who himself raised Jewish. Not only

657
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 1: is he Jewish, I mean his family. He had many

658
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:37,919
Speaker 1: family members that died in the Holocaust. I believe both

659
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 1: of his parents fought in World War Two against the Nazis. UM.

660
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:45,720
Speaker 1: He was also a very delightful stand up comedian. Apparently

661
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 1: there's a bit you can find online where he and

662
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 1: partner play like a xylophone with their their their little

663
00:41:54,440 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 1: Australia's Yeah what okay, all right talking about Genitalia. Yeah, well,

664
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:07,200
Speaker 1: well you could he was like he was like he

665
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 1: was a goofy like cats skills type stand up comedian,

666
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 1: like the Russian equivalent of like kind of body cat skills.

667
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:17,360
Speaker 1: Not not that that like not that that like preclude

668
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:21,399
Speaker 1: someone from being you know, a racist or a supremacist

669
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: of some guy. But I just the guy seems all right. Yeah,

670
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 1: I don't know about that. I'm gonna learn about that

671
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 1: now because I have to. But the big change between

672
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 1: the past two three leaders and Zelinski it's nine and

673
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:38,280
Speaker 1: day right. Poin was able to give fifteen billion dollars

674
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: to Ukraine for you know, to really establish some advantage

675
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:46,839
Speaker 1: there or some good will within Ukraine just I mean

676
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 1: really relatively a few years ago, even though it was

677
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,920
Speaker 1: Wit eight years ago or something. Um. And now to

678
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 1: have the leader wanting outwardly to join NATO, I mean,

679
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 1: you can you can imagine in that there, you can

680
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 1: see why maybe there's even personal conflict there for Putent

681
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 1: because he was on stage in Ukraine signing those documents

682
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:12,280
Speaker 1: to give him the bail out in Yeah again this um,

683
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 1: you know It's very difficult to truly know the inner

684
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:19,879
Speaker 1: workings and mechanisms of a person's mind, but you are

685
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 1: spot on right there. There's a clear pattern of activity here.

686
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:28,759
Speaker 1: And let's be let's be completely honest too. There are definitely,

687
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:33,239
Speaker 1: in arguably long established Russian speaking communities in Ukraine. There

688
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 1: are cities like Odessa where the majority of people speak Russian.

689
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 1: And that's not the thing. Is that just because those

690
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 1: people are culturally Russian or speak Russian consider themselves Russian,

691
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:52,439
Speaker 1: that doesn't mean they also share the same revisionist view

692
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:55,319
Speaker 1: of history or yearn for the days of Empire. That's

693
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:58,760
Speaker 1: a leap of logic. I always thought Odessa was in Russia.

694
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:01,359
Speaker 1: See I mean, like I think it's just the lack

695
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 1: of in depth understanding of the complex relationships between these

696
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 1: two regions and the fact there are these pockets, you

697
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 1: know of, like ethnic Russians in Ukraine. I always assumed

698
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: Odessa was Russia. Well, uh so did Vladimir Putin, you

699
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 1: know what I mean? So so this is this is

700
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 1: the thing. This is the thing. Russians make a lot

701
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 1: of claims about the status of Ukraine today, and at

702
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:32,279
Speaker 1: the most extreme, there's the complete denial of Ukrainian identity.

703
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 1: Another view is that certain parts of Ukraine aren't really Ukrainian,

704
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 1: not when you think about it, and they're only a

705
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:42,719
Speaker 1: part of Ukraine due to an accident of history, and

706
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 1: Crimea and the Don Boss are the principal Russian examples,

707
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 1: But then those claims extend further. Places like Kharaikiev, Odessa,

708
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:56,399
Speaker 1: even Kiev itself aren't accidents of history, just history. It's

709
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:59,200
Speaker 1: such an interesting way. That's my opinion. I put that's

710
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 1: my opinion too. I I sure if you are that.

711
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 1: I put it that way because we gotta set up

712
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:06,840
Speaker 1: so Russian nationalists will even claim that there is cultural

713
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:12,279
Speaker 1: genocide being committed against Russians in the East and that

714
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 1: Russia is intervening not to invade, but to protect Russians.

715
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 1: Uh did you catch that last one. You always have

716
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 1: to be skeptical when any politician frames a conflict as

717
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 1: a war of defense, especially if they appear to be

718
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 1: the aggressor. You've got to be cruel to be kind

719
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 1: in the right measure. You know, it rings of preemptive

720
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 1: strikes to me. But no doubt it's a false flag situation.

721
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 1: I mean it's it's it's it's like drumming up, you know,

722
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 1: the optics of a problem that you then are the

723
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:47,879
Speaker 1: only ones that could possibly solve. Uh. And it's it's

724
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 1: like your pretense for going in, you know, and you

725
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:54,160
Speaker 1: you guys nailed it because it is in my mind,

726
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 1: it has proven that under Putin, Russia did engage in

727
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 1: false flag attacks. Check out the apartment bombings from a

728
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 1: few years back. Anyhow, where's the evidence for this ethnic

729
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:09,720
Speaker 1: cleansing or this this nzification? Like, where where's the evidence

730
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 1: for this? Oh? I think if it was check out

731
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:16,839
Speaker 1: rt dot com or check out whatever Russian side propaganda

732
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 1: sites are all you know, are still up masqurading his news.

733
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 1: It's it's it's all over the air waves there. You

734
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 1: might just not see those clips on CNN. Did you

735
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 1: also see on John Oliver where some of the quote

736
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 1: unquote proof of some of these things that he showed

737
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:34,839
Speaker 1: or that was being shown on Russian television were in

738
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 1: fact explosions and examples from like other things and other

739
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 1: countries that weren't even very well disguised. Right, Yeah, exactly

740
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 1: easily identified, especially by people familiar with that footage from earlier.

741
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:52,839
Speaker 1: It wasn't exactly the best example of a deep fake

742
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 1: or propaganda. But anyway, the main takeaway before we go

743
00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 1: to our next break is this from the Russian perspective, Ukraine,

744
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 1: at the very least certain regions, but certain regions in particular,

745
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 1: have always been Russia. In his mind, Putin is correcting

746
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 1: an accident of history. And I keep using that phrase

747
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:14,280
Speaker 1: because I I think we can all you know, like

748
00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 1: like you put it in all, I think we can

749
00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 1: all say that's just that's history. It's not a multiverse timeline.

750
00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 1: The accident of history being the dissolution of the U

751
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 1: S s R. Like that was unjust. Soh He definitely

752
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:29,279
Speaker 1: believes that, but more so he believes the creation of

753
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:35,040
Speaker 1: the concept of modern Ukraine was an accident by Bolsheviks. Basically.

754
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,480
Speaker 1: But we're gonna pause for word from our sponsor and

755
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:40,719
Speaker 1: answer one of the questions, or attempt to answer one

756
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 1: of the questions that I think has been on the

757
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,240
Speaker 1: mind of a lot of people in the years leading

758
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:56,200
Speaker 1: up to this, which is why now we've returned. So

759
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 1: let's talk about timing. That's another question analyst trying to

760
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:02,520
Speaker 1: answer with all this longstanding stuff in the mix, all

761
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 1: this tension, all this enmity, all this dream of a

762
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:10,320
Speaker 1: resurrected empire forward literally decades and decades. Why did Putin

763
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 1: wait until recent years to hone in on Ukraine. There

764
00:48:13,200 --> 00:48:15,800
Speaker 1: are a couple of factors to come into play. First,

765
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 1: the previous US presidential administration was quite problematically pro Putin,

766
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:24,400
Speaker 1: even when it ran against the interest of the people

767
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:28,319
Speaker 1: of the United States, which, you know, politics aside, that's

768
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 1: not the job description when you're president. I think that's

769
00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:33,799
Speaker 1: safe to say. I don't think that's a hot take.

770
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:40,880
Speaker 1: And the previous US administration was instrumental in brokering some

771
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:44,799
Speaker 1: of the things that Russia wanted to see, weakening of

772
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:49,320
Speaker 1: NATO via Brexit, failure on the US part to whole

773
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 1: help hold Russia accountable on previous agreements, and so on

774
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 1: and so on. And then secondly, and I wonder if

775
00:48:57,200 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 1: this is being brought up more and more often, the

776
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 1: globe pandemic COVID may have delayed some of the actions here,

777
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:06,879
Speaker 1: may have delayed some of the actual deployment because like

778
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:10,759
Speaker 1: when the Biden presidency took office, and uh, you know,

779
00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 1: Biden has been a long standing, uh vocal opponent and

780
00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 1: critic of the Putin government. What happened. It may have been.

781
00:49:20,120 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 1: It may have been just the harsh reality of a

782
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:25,000
Speaker 1: global pandemic, and that means, in a weird way, COVID

783
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 1: may have saved some lives or at the very least

784
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:29,759
Speaker 1: delayed some bloodshed, which is weird to think about. But

785
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:31,719
Speaker 1: a question that I've I've had, I've heard an other

786
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:35,200
Speaker 1: you know, Folcus on pundits and the like, uh posing,

787
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:40,000
Speaker 1: is why didn't he do it under Trump? Because Trump

788
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:42,239
Speaker 1: was so cozy with them, and it seemed like it

789
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 1: would have been optically a better move and he probably

790
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:48,239
Speaker 1: wouldn't have imposed the same sanctions or at the very

791
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 1: least not as severe, like why waiting until you know

792
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:55,719
Speaker 1: a presidency that is clearly vocally in opposition to you,

793
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 1: like you just said, Then sometimes you gotta get the

794
00:49:57,640 --> 00:50:00,080
Speaker 1: chess pieces in the right place, and if they're not

795
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 1: quite there, you don't, you know, make the move. I

796
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:06,920
Speaker 1: don't know. That's the only thing, that's the only thing

797
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: I can imagine, because it does, it does. I like

798
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 1: what you're seeing here about COVID, Ben, because it does

799
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 1: feel like as the as President Zelski comes into twenty nineteen,

800
00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:18,040
Speaker 1: you know there's a window there between him you know,

801
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 1: getting into office and a move to be made. I

802
00:50:22,080 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 1: feel like I think it's US presidency changing hands and

803
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:29,399
Speaker 1: it's also Ukrainian presidency changing hands. Um, you just look

804
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 1: at those two timelines, how they overlap, and then where

805
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 1: COVID fell in to just push it back two. Oh yeah,

806
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 1: the peaceful passage of power. That's really good point. And

807
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:43,400
Speaker 1: then third, for a variety of reasons, maybe most notably

808
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:47,279
Speaker 1: US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Putin and his team may have

809
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:51,120
Speaker 1: decided that the US was at a particularly weak point,

810
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 1: which is true, the US is at a weaker point,

811
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:57,359
Speaker 1: or it was quite recently at a weaker point than

812
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:00,320
Speaker 1: it had been in the past few years, for number reasons.

813
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:04,400
Speaker 1: So maybe this, maybe this was part of the calculus.

814
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 1: I think it almost certainly was. Also note part of

815
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:11,520
Speaker 1: the domestic issues in the US were created and escalated

816
00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:15,239
Speaker 1: by active Russian cyber warfare, so he's well aware of that.

817
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:19,240
Speaker 1: When he recognized these dom Bass republics as independent states,

818
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 1: he tremendously escalated everything and this turned into a full

819
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:28,920
Speaker 1: scale invasion of Ukraine. That invasion is uh brutal signal

820
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:33,120
Speaker 1: to the West that Russia is not going to accept

821
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:38,240
Speaker 1: any army of or placing weaponry in Ukraine, Poland Romania.

822
00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:40,799
Speaker 1: There are other factors here that are I would say

823
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:45,719
Speaker 1: possible factors, like unfortunately, it's true if you are flagging

824
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:48,719
Speaker 1: and domestic support in a lot of countries. One of

825
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:53,040
Speaker 1: the quickest ways to jack up your domestic support is

826
00:51:53,040 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 1: too is to have a war. Just like that film

827
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:59,919
Speaker 1: Wag the Dog, You know which it's it's an enemy

828
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:02,360
Speaker 1: writing like a common animal. Let's let's talk about what

829
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:06,800
Speaker 1: happened with Putin's approval rating after the annexation of Crimea.

830
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:11,360
Speaker 1: According to The Guardian in several places writing in, his

831
00:52:11,440 --> 00:52:14,840
Speaker 1: approval rating hit an all time high of eighty seven

832
00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:19,719
Speaker 1: percent in July and an all time high of eight

833
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:25,200
Speaker 1: nine in June off after the annexation. Are those numbers

834
00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:27,840
Speaker 1: slanted though? Like I mean, is that coming from the

835
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:32,160
Speaker 1: average you know, younger generation Russian or is this like

836
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:37,280
Speaker 1: I just wonder where's this coming from? I don't know necessarily,

837
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 1: but the same polling found that his approval rating was

838
00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:42,400
Speaker 1: in the sixties, just a few years part of that

839
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:47,560
Speaker 1: in so like if it is a slanted pole even,

840
00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 1: you know, if you just think about that way, it's

841
00:52:49,239 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 1: up thirty thirty nine percent from a few years ago.

842
00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 1: What's that old joke, asked I asked Russian friends how

843
00:52:57,320 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 1: things were going over there. He said he couldn't complain. Yeah,

844
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:06,440
Speaker 1: that's the uh Gallows humor. So there's also the idea

845
00:53:06,600 --> 00:53:10,800
Speaker 1: you'll see conjectures regarding the mental state of the individual

846
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 1: of Vladimir Putin. Again, conjectures about mental state can be

847
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:18,319
Speaker 1: difficult to prove, especially when we're talking about one of

848
00:53:18,360 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 1: the most protected people on the planet. You know, it's

849
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:24,719
Speaker 1: not like, think about how difficult it is to get

850
00:53:24,800 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 1: medical information about presidents we in the US, I mean,

851
00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:30,960
Speaker 1: we talked about that in presidents and substance abuse. But

852
00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 1: it doesn't Unfortunately, for a lot of media outlets, it

853
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:38,520
Speaker 1: doesn't particularly matter if you can whether you can prove

854
00:53:38,600 --> 00:53:41,800
Speaker 1: something about someone's mental state. It makes for a good headline,

855
00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:44,520
Speaker 1: So your mission is accomplished. And that's sad to say.

856
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:46,799
Speaker 1: And and and of course I say that with all due

857
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:49,839
Speaker 1: respect to the actual investigative journalists who are busting their

858
00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 1: asses doing amazing work here. It's not like there's some

859
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:55,640
Speaker 1: clause that can be triggered out, well, Putin's mental state

860
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:58,239
Speaker 1: is waning. There's something that's triggered by that that we

861
00:53:58,280 --> 00:53:59,920
Speaker 1: can like out to him and replace them. That's just

862
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:02,440
Speaker 1: not in the cards. You just now have a very

863
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:05,920
Speaker 1: very powerful leader who is potentially, you know, dealing with

864
00:54:06,040 --> 00:54:09,799
Speaker 1: a depleted mental state and everything that goes along with that.

865
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:12,880
Speaker 1: No real checks uh, no real checks on power, no

866
00:54:13,000 --> 00:54:17,800
Speaker 1: real balances, no actionable thing like the twenty fifth Amendment

867
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:20,520
Speaker 1: here in the US, which means that a president can

868
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:23,800
Speaker 1: be removed temporarily or permanently when they're unfit for office.

869
00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:28,040
Speaker 1: But while there's a ton of reporting about expansionists would

870
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 1: be imperial Russia, and while those reports are true, people

871
00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:37,360
Speaker 1: do believe that this could also be an attempt to create, however,

872
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:41,879
Speaker 1: violently buffer states and buffer states are another Like I'm

873
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 1: telling you, a lot of this stuff is not original,

874
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:47,839
Speaker 1: and things in geopolitics are rarely original, which we'll talk

875
00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:51,840
Speaker 1: about more in the future. But a buffer state works

876
00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:56,520
Speaker 1: from the Russian perspective, NATO expansion decreases Russian security because

877
00:54:56,600 --> 00:55:00,520
Speaker 1: if you're a NATO country, the United States of America

878
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:04,560
Speaker 1: can build military bases on your land. That's a big

879
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 1: no no. I'm trying to think in terms of analogies, like, Okay,

880
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 1: you live in a suburb right your Russia. You're the

881
00:55:11,120 --> 00:55:14,880
Speaker 1: biggest house on the block, and there's something like a

882
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:18,799
Speaker 1: really weird h o A that's coming into town, right,

883
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 1: and they're saying you don't have to join, but they

884
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:25,040
Speaker 1: want everybody to join, and then your neighbor might join.

885
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 1: And if your neighbor joins, that means they're going to

886
00:55:28,120 --> 00:55:31,880
Speaker 1: invite their pal, Uncle Sam, the guy who hate most

887
00:55:31,920 --> 00:55:34,520
Speaker 1: out of everybody in town, and he's gonna be like

888
00:55:34,600 --> 00:55:38,279
Speaker 1: hanging out there at barbecues, jumping on trampolines right next

889
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:41,960
Speaker 1: to your backyard. Uh. And the worry is that one

890
00:55:42,040 --> 00:55:46,920
Speaker 1: day Sam might just stay. You might even eventually forget

891
00:55:46,920 --> 00:55:49,440
Speaker 1: whose yard is who's. And that's why you have to

892
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:51,520
Speaker 1: think about buffer state. You have to think about things

893
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:54,160
Speaker 1: like the d p r K. There is you know,

894
00:55:55,160 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 1: North Korea, I mean borders Russia, right, it borders China,

895
00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:05,480
Speaker 1: and I don't think Russia or China in particular would

896
00:56:05,520 --> 00:56:10,080
Speaker 1: like that peninsula reunited under a democratic South Korean led government.

897
00:56:10,400 --> 00:56:16,000
Speaker 1: That's just inviting Uncle Sam to the backyard. So I

898
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:18,319
Speaker 1: I know that's a fast and loose thing, but I

899
00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 1: think it works. So it is. I do think the

900
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 1: h way is a very specific h way of drummers,

901
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 1: So like everybody coming in and joining up, they all

902
00:56:26,560 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 1: become drummers, and then there's just people playing drums and

903
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:32,200
Speaker 1: houses all around you. Who would be the worst um,

904
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:36,319
Speaker 1: says a drummer, I mean having one drummer on the

905
00:56:36,360 --> 00:56:38,680
Speaker 1: block enough, but like having like all of a sudden,

906
00:56:38,760 --> 00:56:41,160
Speaker 1: every house has a drummer and they're playing at the

907
00:56:41,200 --> 00:56:43,799
Speaker 1: same time or at all hours, then you know you've

908
00:56:43,800 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 1: got yourself a problem. And it might just start as

909
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:50,120
Speaker 1: a nuisance and then escalate into you know, that's a

910
00:56:50,120 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 1: slippery slope, and all of a sudden the drum set

911
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 1: set up in your living room and you can't do

912
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:58,319
Speaker 1: your zoom work calls anymore because of all the racket. Yes,

913
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:00,480
Speaker 1: but what I want to point out, just if you're

914
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:02,920
Speaker 1: reading the news right now as we're recording this on

915
00:57:03,120 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 1: March two, you're probably hearing this next week, But here

916
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:12,040
Speaker 1: are signals coming out of mainstream media about actions China

917
00:57:12,120 --> 00:57:14,480
Speaker 1: is taking, in North Korea is taking in Belarus is

918
00:57:14,520 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 1: taking and all the NATO countries are taking and it's

919
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 1: feeling more and more like everybody is getting involved. That

920
00:57:22,440 --> 00:57:25,680
Speaker 1: you mentioned there, But for the most part, in the

921
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:29,400
Speaker 1: anti Russia direction. I mean, I believe it was. You know,

922
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:33,720
Speaker 1: China abstained from from a vote um, and a couple

923
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:36,560
Speaker 1: of other countries as well. UM. But they also haven't

924
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:39,600
Speaker 1: come out vocally in support of Russia, who I believe

925
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:42,400
Speaker 1: as recently as you know, a few months ago. Um.

926
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:44,640
Speaker 1: Now it's more recent than that. I believe Putin was

927
00:57:44,680 --> 00:57:46,480
Speaker 1: over there and said so many of the effect of that,

928
00:57:46,560 --> 00:57:49,760
Speaker 1: the relationship with the friendship between China and Russia was

929
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 1: like unshakable. It's evolving minute by minute. I'm reading a

930
00:57:53,600 --> 00:57:57,400
Speaker 1: lot of stuff specifically about Taiwan right now that you know,

931
00:57:57,480 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 1: that's a shaky situation, but it appears to be evolving

932
00:58:02,320 --> 00:58:05,920
Speaker 1: day by day. Nothing is nothing occurs in the vacuum.

933
00:58:06,120 --> 00:58:09,959
Speaker 1: Everything in this sphere is precedent as well. Uh. And

934
00:58:09,960 --> 00:58:15,000
Speaker 1: and China is currently working, as we're recording some trade

935
00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:19,280
Speaker 1: trade barriers with Russia. UH. They want to of course,

936
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 1: China wants to maintain stability and grow its own global position.

937
00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:26,360
Speaker 1: But when we get to present and future concerns, there's

938
00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:29,160
Speaker 1: much much, much, much much more to explore here. It

939
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 1: is right to say that the Russian Putin perspective leaves

940
00:58:32,480 --> 00:58:34,960
Speaker 1: a lot to be desired in the way of factual support.

941
00:58:35,040 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 1: It's not our opinion. It is demonstrably false that Ukraine

942
00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:41,480
Speaker 1: is run by Nazis. It is also demonstratly false that

943
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:44,920
Speaker 1: Ukraine was never quote unquote its own country. The people

944
00:58:45,080 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 1: voted to be so. And these facts add up to

945
00:58:48,640 --> 00:58:51,640
Speaker 1: real world tragedy. As we're recording this week, Just so

946
00:58:51,680 --> 00:58:55,640
Speaker 1: you know, folks, the numbers stations went active, which is

947
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:58,800
Speaker 1: not a good sign. Putin also put nuclear weapons back

948
00:58:58,840 --> 00:59:01,760
Speaker 1: on the table, back on his enormous take one of

949
00:59:01,800 --> 00:59:05,280
Speaker 1: the number of stations. It's a technology used for spycraft

950
00:59:05,560 --> 00:59:08,880
Speaker 1: that originated in the Cold War days. It's basically codes.

951
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 1: They can be sent out over the radio. They can

952
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:14,360
Speaker 1: only be understood by people who have a key, and

953
00:59:14,400 --> 00:59:16,280
Speaker 1: it's generally, I mean, it's used by a lot of

954
00:59:16,320 --> 00:59:19,920
Speaker 1: different countries, this this technique, but in this case it's

955
00:59:19,920 --> 00:59:23,280
Speaker 1: specific frequencies that Russia uses to communicate with actors who

956
00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:25,680
Speaker 1: are abroad who are not in Russia. It's like what

957
00:59:25,760 --> 00:59:29,080
Speaker 1: happened in um in uh, Doctor Strange Love when they're

958
00:59:29,120 --> 00:59:32,160
Speaker 1: like trying to interpret the like codes on the plane

959
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:34,400
Speaker 1: that no one else can read, and it's telling them

960
00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:37,160
Speaker 1: to either like deploy the nukes or back down. It'd

961
00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:40,560
Speaker 1: be it'd be stuff to that level of extremity. Possibly

962
00:59:40,640 --> 00:59:42,680
Speaker 1: have to know unless you unless you have that one

963
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:45,840
Speaker 1: time code. So we know they went active. We also

964
00:59:45,920 --> 00:59:51,160
Speaker 1: know that economic warfare is in full swing against Russia.

965
00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:54,720
Speaker 1: Tune in on Friday, we're going to talk about that

966
00:59:54,800 --> 00:59:59,400
Speaker 1: more in depth. Recent military actions indicate gross miscalculation on

967
00:59:59,440 --> 01:00:02,800
Speaker 1: the parts of Russia. Their military is capable, yes, of

968
01:00:02,920 --> 01:00:08,120
Speaker 1: destabilizing areas and of raising the cost of independence or

969
01:00:08,160 --> 01:00:11,960
Speaker 1: non compliance, but it does not at this point seem

970
01:00:12,080 --> 01:00:15,440
Speaker 1: capable of controlling a country that has nearly forty million

971
01:00:15,480 --> 01:00:18,080
Speaker 1: people in it, or even a city like Kiev, which

972
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:20,720
Speaker 1: has like two point eight million. And I want to

973
01:00:20,760 --> 01:00:23,280
Speaker 1: add that I've been looking at I usually don't do this,

974
01:00:23,360 --> 01:00:25,840
Speaker 1: but I've been looking at stuff actively because we're talking

975
01:00:25,840 --> 01:00:29,520
Speaker 1: about an ongoing event. It looks like just a few

976
01:00:29,560 --> 01:00:34,880
Speaker 1: hours ago the news hit that someone leaked someone leaked

977
01:00:34,920 --> 01:00:38,400
Speaker 1: some documents from Russia's military that projected the war in

978
01:00:38,520 --> 01:00:42,760
Speaker 1: Ukraine was meant to last fifteen days. Uh Ukraine got

979
01:00:42,800 --> 01:00:47,640
Speaker 1: a hold of Russian military plans from the tenth Brigade

980
01:00:48,040 --> 01:00:51,040
Speaker 1: of the Black Sea Fleet Marines and Turkey also just

981
01:00:51,080 --> 01:00:54,880
Speaker 1: denied Russian warships access through the Bosphorus. So is there

982
01:00:54,880 --> 01:00:56,960
Speaker 1: not a bit of a sense that Putin sort of

983
01:00:57,480 --> 01:01:00,680
Speaker 1: overplayed his hand and undercalculated a bit in terms of

984
01:01:00,720 --> 01:01:02,919
Speaker 1: like how easy it was going to be to take

985
01:01:02,960 --> 01:01:06,160
Speaker 1: over an entire country that he you know that the

986
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:09,919
Speaker 1: force that he deployed isn't nearly enough to hold even

987
01:01:09,920 --> 01:01:13,160
Speaker 1: the capital, let alone the entire country. Right, you have

988
01:01:13,200 --> 01:01:17,280
Speaker 1: to ask about the stabilization versus occupation, which are two

989
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:20,960
Speaker 1: very very very different endeavors. But yeah, it seems that

990
01:01:21,080 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 1: it indicates gross miscalculation in his part. But again, we

991
01:01:24,720 --> 01:01:27,080
Speaker 1: are coming to you from a week in the past.

992
01:01:27,360 --> 01:01:31,120
Speaker 1: We hope that this message finds you healthy, find you sane,

993
01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:35,280
Speaker 1: and find you safe. Our thoughts go with the innocent

994
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:38,920
Speaker 1: people of Ukraine. And to be very very clear, and

995
01:01:39,080 --> 01:01:42,480
Speaker 1: I think we need to make this this this distinction

996
01:01:42,960 --> 01:01:48,520
Speaker 1: more often in these conversations. We're not talking about the

997
01:01:48,640 --> 01:01:51,840
Speaker 1: people in Russia. The people in Russia who are just

998
01:01:51,920 --> 01:01:55,040
Speaker 1: as innocent and probably you know off, probably don't support

999
01:01:55,080 --> 01:01:57,240
Speaker 1: a war, you know what I mean, especially once the

1000
01:01:57,280 --> 01:02:03,600
Speaker 1: economic sanctions are full effect. Uh, there are innocent people

1001
01:02:04,040 --> 01:02:06,760
Speaker 1: on both sides of every conflict. And that's not a

1002
01:02:06,760 --> 01:02:10,000
Speaker 1: middling equivocating statement. You know, I'm not going to pull

1003
01:02:10,040 --> 01:02:13,040
Speaker 1: out that old rant about elephants and grass again, but

1004
01:02:13,120 --> 01:02:15,280
Speaker 1: it is very very much true, and you need to

1005
01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:19,760
Speaker 1: remember that. We all need to remember that a nation's

1006
01:02:19,840 --> 01:02:23,560
Speaker 1: people are not necessarily the same as a nation's government,

1007
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:27,400
Speaker 1: and they don't have the same control. While it might

1008
01:02:27,440 --> 01:02:29,640
Speaker 1: be convenient to lump a bunch of people into one

1009
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:34,720
Speaker 1: monolithic group and say, ah, they're terrible, that is only

1010
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:38,360
Speaker 1: convenient because it is inaccurate. Um. But at this point

1011
01:02:38,440 --> 01:02:40,479
Speaker 1: we want to hear from you. We want to see

1012
01:02:40,480 --> 01:02:43,000
Speaker 1: what your your take is on the context here, what

1013
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:45,600
Speaker 1: your take is on the Russian perspective, what you think

1014
01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:48,600
Speaker 1: should be done, what you think will be done? Um,

1015
01:02:48,640 --> 01:02:53,080
Speaker 1: what do you think will be the future? The people

1016
01:02:53,400 --> 01:02:56,600
Speaker 1: and the government of Ukraine can't wait to hear from you.

1017
01:02:56,680 --> 01:02:59,240
Speaker 1: We try to be easy to find online. Oh yes,

1018
01:02:59,320 --> 01:03:01,120
Speaker 1: you can find us all over the internet. We are

1019
01:03:01,160 --> 01:03:03,760
Speaker 1: on Facebook, we are on Twitter, we are on YouTube

1020
01:03:03,800 --> 01:03:06,000
Speaker 1: with the handle conspiracy Stuff. You can find us on

1021
01:03:06,040 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 1: Instagram and conspiracy Stuff show. Oh quick quick, other new

1022
01:03:10,240 --> 01:03:13,120
Speaker 1: news thing that just came in everybody. According to The

1023
01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:17,440
Speaker 1: New York Times, China asked very nicely that Russia not

1024
01:03:17,560 --> 01:03:22,800
Speaker 1: invade Ukraine until after the Olympics concluded. Isn't that nice? Okay?

1025
01:03:23,280 --> 01:03:25,480
Speaker 1: If you don't like social media, feel free to give

1026
01:03:25,560 --> 01:03:28,640
Speaker 1: us a phone call. Our number is one eight three

1027
01:03:28,720 --> 01:03:32,800
Speaker 1: three st d w y t K. When you do call,

1028
01:03:32,880 --> 01:03:35,480
Speaker 1: please make sure to give yourself a cool nickname, and

1029
01:03:35,560 --> 01:03:38,280
Speaker 1: you have three minutes. Say whatever you'd like in that

1030
01:03:38,360 --> 01:03:40,480
Speaker 1: three minutes. At some point let us know if we

1031
01:03:40,480 --> 01:03:44,160
Speaker 1: can use your voice and name and message on the air.

1032
01:03:44,760 --> 01:03:46,320
Speaker 1: If you've got more to say than can fit in

1033
01:03:46,320 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 1: that three minutes, instead, why not send us a good

1034
01:03:48,880 --> 01:03:52,560
Speaker 1: old fashioned email. We are conspiracy at i heart radio

1035
01:03:52,720 --> 01:04:13,400
Speaker 1: dot com. Yeah stuff they don't want you to know.

1036
01:04:13,640 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 1: Is a production of I heart Radio. For more podcasts

1037
01:04:16,600 --> 01:04:18,840
Speaker 1: from my heart Radio, visit the i heart Radio app,

1038
01:04:18,920 --> 01:04:21,800
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.