1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always i Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. The annual 11 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:52,840 Speaker 2: payrolls benchmark revision. Sarah Hunt is in equities and she's 12 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 2: focused on this economics. Why are you focused on this 13 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 2: payroll revisions? If you're running stocks? 14 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 3: What's been going on for the last year. One of 15 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 3: the big things that people have been excited about is 16 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 3: the labor market has stayed strong, and this is given 17 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:08,959 Speaker 3: the FED room to not cut rates because the economy 18 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 3: has stayed strong. And if this turns out, and there 19 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 3: have been a lot of discussions about which of the 20 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 3: various labor mass ways you should look at, this are correct. 21 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 3: If there's a big downward revision. Then that labor story 22 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 3: starts to take a little bit off, and people really 23 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 3: start to worry again about the consumer because if if 24 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 3: you have a job, you're willing to spend it, if 25 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 3: you don't, you're not. So I think that there's a 26 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 3: big question about how that plays out Atlanta. 27 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 2: GDP is coming down. It was two point x boom economy, 28 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 2: solid economy. Maybe it's down to two percent. Is there 29 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 2: a point where in the equity space we become more 30 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 2: like Macy's and not Target, where GDP and consumer pulse 31 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 2: gives way to moldy earnings. 32 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 3: I think that's the big concern, right because what you've 33 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 3: seen out of the sort of discount retailers, if you will, 34 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 3: is good numbers. And Target had a lot of problems 35 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 3: coming out of the pandemic with an inventory shoe and 36 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 3: it took them some time to work through that and 37 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 3: now they're back on track. But with Macy's, it's hard 38 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 3: to tell if it's just Macy's, but if that middle 39 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 3: consumer is really starting to feel the pinch on both sides, 40 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 3: I think you start to worry about earnings, and that 41 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,359 Speaker 3: becomes a question with equity levels where they are. 42 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,239 Speaker 4: We have some I think the earnings come out of 43 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:19,360 Speaker 4: the second quarter were pretty solid. How do you What 44 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 4: did you take away from the second quarter earnings and 45 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 4: maybe some of the I guess the forecast going forward? 46 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 3: Well, I'm going to give a big plug to Tom 47 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:27,800 Speaker 3: Keane's corporations will adapt. 48 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 4: Yes, and they. 49 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:34,360 Speaker 2: Did Sparta listening. She's probably up at ninety two nine. Yes, 50 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 2: in Boston working on that, working on the painting, getting 51 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 2: the curtains and all that, because after Labor Day we're 52 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 2: on a big news single. 53 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 4: I know Boston, I know it's huge. 54 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 2: Basically, she said that that's great. 55 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, So I mean earnings, I mean, what's your takeaway? 56 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 3: Well, I think that the big concern, and it was 57 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 3: concern that we shared quite honestly, was that margins were 58 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 3: going to have a problem as inflation came down, because 59 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 3: if margins were accelerating because of inflation and corporations were capturing, 60 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 3: than they were going to see a bit of a 61 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 3: margin squeeze. So far, that has yet to materialize, and 62 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 3: in fact, the expectation for margins going into twenty twenty 63 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 3: five and the backup of twenty twenty four are pretty decent. 64 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 3: So that's where your earnings have been able to be okay. 65 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 3: The question is if the top line starts to get 66 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 3: affected even more, that could be an issue. 67 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 2: Is your analysis narrow and sector specific and even within sectors, 68 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 2: or is it more holistic about the market. 69 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:27,799 Speaker 3: Well, the numbers that I was just talking about are 70 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 3: more holistic about the market, but if you look at 71 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 3: certain sectors, I mean, that's where also technology has really 72 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 3: carried healthcare in a lot of places. Healthcare has been 73 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 3: a little bit problematic coming out of the pandemic, but 74 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 3: it's starting to work better and it's starting to do okay. 75 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 3: I think the insurers had great numbers coming out because 76 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 3: nobody was utilizing healthcare for a while. So the question 77 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 3: is what's going to happen to them as utilization starts 78 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 3: to pick up. But I think in general, the question 79 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 3: about margins has been a lot less. It has been 80 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 3: more benign than people expect. 81 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 2: I said, Lisa, is my botox? Is that utilizing healthcare 82 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 2: that doesn't care that we'll save me? 83 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 4: All right, Sarah, where do we go here? Coming out 84 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 4: here this earnings? We've got a fed that presumably me 85 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 4: cutting rates. We've got decent earnings. Do we just stick 86 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 4: with the magnificent seven. Do we try to get a 87 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:16,840 Speaker 4: little bit more creative out there, Do we look for 88 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 4: value and sectors outside the mag seven? 89 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 3: Well, some of the catch up in the last week 90 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 3: has actually been on the S and P equal weight, 91 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:25,840 Speaker 3: So that tells you that that market has broadened out 92 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 3: a bit, So it's not just the Magnificent seven. I 93 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 3: think that downdrafting technology was bought pretty quickly. It was 94 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 3: the balance of the market that took a couple more days. 95 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:34,840 Speaker 3: But you really have seen I mean, it's almost like 96 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 3: the beginning of August never happened, right, So there's a 97 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:39,920 Speaker 3: very there's a very quick snapback there. And I think 98 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 3: that as long as you can see, you know, corporations 99 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 3: are still spending money, there's plenty of cash out there, 100 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 3: it does look pretty good. But if you start to 101 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:49,720 Speaker 3: see things really slow down on the margin, the question 102 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 3: is where the valuations are now? Can they stay there 103 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 3: or can they go further? What's your next leg up? 104 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:55,480 Speaker 2: At the heart of this, and I'm going to cite 105 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 2: glob and sex, but you know, I'm not sure that, folks, 106 00:04:57,720 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 2: I don't have it in front of me. There seems 107 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 2: to be a model from six percent revenue growth down 108 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 2: to four percent revenue growth. David Coston, like me taking 109 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 2: this off of nominal GDP. Can your world work successfully 110 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 2: with nominal GDP giving you four percent revenue growth? 111 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:19,839 Speaker 3: Oh? I think it absolutely can. And in the people younger. 112 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 2: Sarah don't agree with this. I mean, you were nineteen 113 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 2: when we were doing this. But the answer is there 114 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 2: was a time where nominal was there. 115 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 3: Yes, and I think that there was also. Again, it 116 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,479 Speaker 3: is such an unusual situation to have gone through a 117 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,480 Speaker 3: global pandemic that this fits and starts, and the actual 118 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 3: numbers and how fast things are increasing are harder to 119 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,039 Speaker 3: put into a historical context when you have such a 120 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 3: giant downdraft. I mean, I think that's part of the 121 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 3: problem with the labor market. And one of the reasons 122 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 3: that people are concerned about the revisions is because we're 123 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,479 Speaker 3: working off a lot of models that are hypothetical, that 124 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 3: show a birth death model for businesses and everything else. 125 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,280 Speaker 3: And I think that that's really difficult to parse when 126 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 3: you go through such a big historic change. 127 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 4: Fixed income to your treasuries four percent, that's fine for me, 128 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 4: but try to take some more credit risk. 129 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:06,599 Speaker 3: Well, I think The difficult thing is now is that 130 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 3: you know that the FED is going to start cutting rates. 131 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 3: They pretty much telegraph that that's going to happen, and 132 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 3: whether or not they do it in a big, chunky fashion, 133 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:15,720 Speaker 3: which I don't expect them to do. We know that 134 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 3: those short term rates are coming down, so sure you 135 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 3: can take four percent out of two year, which you're not. 136 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 3: It's going out further, that's the question. And compressed credit 137 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 3: spreads are still very compressed, so that means that taking 138 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 3: that credit risk, you're not getting paid as much as 139 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 3: you would have in any kind of an with a 140 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:32,919 Speaker 3: little bit more uncertainty. So it's a little difficult, but 141 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:35,279 Speaker 3: I think that having some fixed income now finally is 142 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 3: part of the portfolio. 143 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 4: All Right, we're sending Tom Keen and Lisa browm w's 144 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 4: out to Jackson Hole today, so they're going to get 145 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 4: ready for this whole thing. What are they going to 146 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 4: hear when they go out there? Do you think? 147 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 2: Well? 148 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 3: I think a lot is going to depend on what 149 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 3: happens today and with those revisions, because whether or not 150 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:51,600 Speaker 3: they have to talk about that or not talk about 151 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 3: that is going to be a big issue. But I 152 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 3: also think that it's been telegraphed, like I said, pretty 153 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 3: well that unless the data goes in the opposite direction 154 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 3: and or you see a spy and inflation, we can 155 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 3: start to expect to see rates come down. And I 156 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:05,599 Speaker 3: think that's going to be if we don't do much 157 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:07,599 Speaker 3: else except deal with that. I think that's probably going 158 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 3: to be what they're targeting. 159 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 4: So, I mean, I think the issue here for a 160 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 4: lot of investors, Sarah is I mean, I've had a 161 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 4: pretty good year so far. I mean, do I just 162 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 4: can I just take my money and just put it 163 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 4: under the mattress for the rest of the year. What 164 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 4: do I do here? 165 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 3: Well, you could unless you did it for a living, 166 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 3: which case it wouldn't really appreciate. 167 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 4: That we're paying you to do this. I forgot we're 168 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 4: paying you to do this. 169 00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 3: I think. I mean, we've been really we've been pretty 170 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 3: happy with our positioning thus far this year. That downdraft 171 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 3: was so fast, nobody really changed very much because it 172 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 3: was such a quick, quick up and down. I think 173 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 3: that what people are looking for is what's going to 174 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 3: happen into twenty twenty five, what's going to happen as 175 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 3: we go through the end of this year. This year 176 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 3: looks pretty good. What's going to happen next year? We've 177 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 3: got an election. There's some uncertainty there. 178 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 2: As a general statement, I don't see exuberants within broader 179 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 2: society for stocks. I can't believe I'm saying this. It 180 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 2: futures forty one twenty five on the doubt, I don't sense. 181 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 2: Am I wrong? 182 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 3: No? I think that there is a real question of, like, okay, 183 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 3: we bounce back for all this, all these things happen, 184 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 3: Where are we right now? And how much money do 185 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 3: I want to put to work immediately? If I was 186 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 3: starting a brand new portfolio, I would probably do that 187 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 3: in stages, because I'm not sure given some of the 188 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 3: uncertainties that we're seeing, why you would put one hundred 189 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 3: percent on day one. Given that the equity markets are 190 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 3: where they are, which doesn't mean that they're completely overvalued, 191 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:32,720 Speaker 3: it just means that we are not. We're not in 192 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 3: the middle of a downdraft. 193 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 2: We didn't. 194 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 3: We had a correction, We turned around and came right 195 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 3: back to close to all time highs. 196 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 4: Yes, sir, thank you so. 197 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 2: Much, Sarah, thank you for being this Olping was kepling 198 00:08:54,960 --> 00:09:00,839 Speaker 2: and reporting from Chicago, reporting and she always does wonderfully 199 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 2: on the politics of the nation in this case of 200 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 2: a democratic flavor. Open question and where he to start. 201 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 2: How's the energy in Chicago different from any other convention 202 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 2: you've attended. 203 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 5: Well, look, I think there's a ton of energy at 204 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 5: the RNC as well, especially that evening that Trump came 205 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:22,679 Speaker 5: out to give his performance. I was on the convention 206 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 5: floor and it was really it was electric to the 207 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 5: people in the room. The man had just literally dodged 208 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 5: a bullet, there was an attempt on his life. And 209 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 5: then he comes out and explains all of that in 210 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 5: depth to his supporters and almost gave a sermon. But 211 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 5: since then, a month later, this election has changed drastically 212 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 5: and there is fresh energy and momentum in this Democratic Party. 213 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:52,119 Speaker 5: Kamala Harris is drawing crowd that Joe Biden was unable 214 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 5: to do for the past year. 215 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:57,319 Speaker 2: In fifteen minutes scheduled, there's going to be the Hispanic 216 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 2: Caucus meeting. Does Vice President Harris want out of the 217 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 2: Hispanic Caucus meeting? 218 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 5: Well, she wants them to be energized to get voters 219 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 5: out in places like Arizona and Nevada, which now are 220 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 5: in play for this Democratic Party, and these are states 221 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 5: that she is going to be visiting, and she needs 222 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 5: to do that because one issue that's close to a 223 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 5: lot of these people in these states is the border, 224 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 5: and President Donald Trump will be in Arizona at the 225 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:34,680 Speaker 5: border on Thursday, wanting to counter program the rhetoric and 226 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 5: the policies we're hearing out of the DNC. He really 227 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,199 Speaker 5: wants to try, or his campaign wants him to try 228 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:42,839 Speaker 5: to focus on the issues, and that's one of them. 229 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 5: So when she speaks to people like the Latino or 230 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 5: LATINX Coalition, it's about this making sure they can run 231 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:52,559 Speaker 5: up these numbers in these states. 232 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 4: An Marie, what is the expectation about the Democrats positioning 233 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,120 Speaker 4: for down ballot races. I've seen some reporting over the 234 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 4: last couple days that the momentum that Kamala Harris has 235 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 4: generated so far since entering the race as the top 236 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 4: candidates will maybe impact down ballot's. What's the thinking on 237 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 4: floor there in Chicago. 238 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 5: Well, this is one of the reasons why when President 239 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:19,839 Speaker 5: Biden recently sat down with CBS this morning, he talked 240 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,679 Speaker 5: about that's one of the reasons why he decided to 241 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 5: leave the race. He saw that the data he saw. 242 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 5: The information he was given was that it was affecting 243 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:32,559 Speaker 5: his colleagues in Congress. There's been a lot of anecdotes 244 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:35,840 Speaker 5: about this. You have someone like Alissa Slotkin of Michigan 245 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:38,719 Speaker 5: trying to claim that seat, trying to move from the 246 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,840 Speaker 5: lower Chamber to the upper chamber. In a leaked report 247 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 5: to The New York Times about a phone call she 248 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 5: had with donors, she was talking about the fact that 249 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:48,960 Speaker 5: the issue she was facing was that with Trump on 250 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:51,720 Speaker 5: top of the ticket, with Biden on top of the 251 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 5: ticket versus Trump, it was hurting her chances. Now there's 252 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 5: renewed momentum down ballot that Kamala Harris can help pick 253 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 5: some of the these people up in very very tough 254 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 5: a very tough map in terms of Democrats trying to 255 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:08,560 Speaker 5: hold the Senate and also trying to win back the House. 256 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:12,679 Speaker 2: Amory, the script is you do the polarity at the conventions, 257 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:16,440 Speaker 2: and then you run to the center. When does the 258 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 2: run to the center, Oh, mister Trump, I guess it's 259 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:21,640 Speaker 2: sort of unique because he's going to do what he 260 00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 2: wants to do. But for the Democrats, it's an example 261 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 2: when do they shift to a center tendency? 262 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 5: I think they're trying to do that now. Really they 263 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 5: are balancing who is speaking. Yeah, they're balancing who is 264 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 5: speaking at this convention. When you heard from Michelle and 265 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:44,400 Speaker 5: Barack Obama yesterday, it is this message about how this 266 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:48,319 Speaker 5: could be a ticket for every Americans. They are trying 267 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 5: to lean into this idea and Libby Cantrell was on 268 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:56,679 Speaker 5: surveillance this morning talking about this idea of vibes and personality. 269 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 5: They're trying to reenact what happened in two thousand and eight. 270 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:05,599 Speaker 5: The issue is they have a very short runway. Potentially 271 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:08,720 Speaker 5: they can do this because they have a very short 272 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 5: runway and don't need to go into detail and some 273 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 5: of their policy proposals that maybe some in the middle 274 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 5: would not be would not be excited to vote for. 275 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 2: Right. One final question, can you get out to Cubbs 276 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:25,440 Speaker 2: Tigers at eight pm tonight? Can you sort of, you know, 277 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 2: do the Ammory Horden Act and then slide out to 278 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 2: Wrigley Field to take in three innings now. 279 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 4: On a mission. 280 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 5: I think it'll be a little bit difficult tonight, given 281 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 5: the fact that Governor Walls will be giving his speech 282 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 5: accepting his VP nomination and also Speaker Pelosi, which Tom 283 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 5: I got to say. The line that struck me last 284 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 5: night at the DNC was when Governor Newsom said He's 285 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,679 Speaker 5: coming from the great state of Nancy Pelosi. That's how 286 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 5: he introduced California, when he helped when he was calling up. 287 00:13:57,800 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 1: The end of the role call. 288 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 5: And in many way this feels like this is her convention, 289 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,199 Speaker 5: a totally different convention we're having now than we were 290 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 5: planning a month ago. 291 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 2: Okay, I'm gonna go see Dansby Swanson. You can deal 292 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 2: with the politics. Emory Orton, thank you so much. They're 293 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 2: really great following and in reporting. I mean, she's tough. 294 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 2: William Lee, Billy's chief economist the Milican Institute, Bill I 295 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 2: don't know if you're up to speed on this, but 296 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 2: basically for it came out and said today they're EV 297 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 2: strategies not working, billions of losses. China completely dominates as 298 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 2: a foreign affairs article this month. It's literally in my suitcase, 299 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 2: folks on the way to Jackson Hole, Bill Lee, the 300 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 2: Chinese EV strategy. How does America compete against that? 301 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 6: It's got to be a really tough Tom. The Chinese 302 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 6: have so dominated in their production of EV's the state 303 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 6: subsidies have made them so good cevs. Their efficiencies are 304 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 6: just better than anybody else right now. In fact, that's 305 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 6: why you see Elon Musk over there, because he really 306 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 6: has taken advantage of not only the state subsidies, but 307 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 6: also he's brought his own technology there. So the way 308 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 6: you compete, I think is to sort of join them. 309 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 6: But that is truly, that's true for a lot of 310 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 6: these new energy industries, electric photos, electric solar cells, and 311 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 6: batter and electric vehicles. 312 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 4: So you know, Bill, a lot of investors, Western investors 313 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 4: got exposure to China through some of the big tech 314 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 4: companies like an Ali Bober for example, and a lot 315 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,200 Speaker 4: of those folks who financed a lot of the growth 316 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 4: for China technology. I think they feel like China's uninvestable 317 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 4: now given what the government has done too, not only 318 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 4: technology but other parts of the economy. What's your view 319 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 4: to those or how do you respond to those types 320 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 4: of folks. 321 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 6: That's the rare point, Paul. If you're already in China, 322 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 6: like a city bank, JP Morgan, even a tesla, you 323 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 6: can put more in because you know exactly what you're 324 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 6: getting into. You know the deals that you're getting into, 325 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 6: you know the kind of market that you're going into, 326 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 6: and you have a niche product if you're a new investor, 327 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 6: and a lot of a lot of our sponsors that 328 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 6: at Milkin I have talked about, how do you get 329 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 6: into China now if you're not able to do the 330 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 6: due diligence to find out exactly what it is that 331 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 6: you're getting into, especially a dynamic market like China where 332 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 6: the domestic market itself is not growing as rapidly as 333 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 6: you thought it would have been would have just a 334 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 6: few years ago. Not only is the demographics situation dismal, 335 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 6: but their near term situation is really a problem because 336 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 6: they aren't able to bring the amount of stimulus to 337 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 6: aggregate demand that they really need to seem like the 338 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 6: economy and get growth going. And part of that problem 339 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 6: is because they're so heavily indebted there. The size of 340 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 6: the fiscal signals they need to bring is limited by 341 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 6: the huge amount of debt that they have, not only 342 00:16:56,880 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 6: not only at the general government level, but more importantly 343 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 6: at the provincial level. Because it's tom as you know, 344 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,479 Speaker 6: when you go into a deal with China, a lot 345 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 6: of the deals are made with provincial governments, But now 346 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 6: those guys are so heavily indebted they can't make the 347 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:13,840 Speaker 6: kind of deals they used to make. 348 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:17,959 Speaker 2: Billy, I look at the currency movement here, and folks, 349 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:22,639 Speaker 2: I can't emphasize enough the persistency of trend. For example, 350 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 2: singapore dollars strength literally over twenty years. Now we have 351 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 2: finally a legitimate dollar weakness for Bill Lee of the 352 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 2: IMF and of Milken. Is it a legit weakness or 353 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:41,160 Speaker 2: is it just a wobble along the way of selected 354 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 2: Pacific rim strength. 355 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 6: It reflects the shifting positions of these two economies, and 356 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:52,119 Speaker 6: in some ways it represents the success of these currencies, 357 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 6: both in Asia and the shift in the United States, 358 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 6: where so much of our manufacturing prowess has really moved 359 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 6: out of the United States. And that's what all of 360 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 6: these chip acts and all these US subsidies are about 361 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 6: to try to bring back some of these jobs and 362 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:11,399 Speaker 6: be sure or at least a friends shore some of 363 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 6: these supply chains. But again we have to talk about 364 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 6: the apparent's historical success versus the prospective success going forward. 365 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 6: Will China continue to be the super growth market, Will 366 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:27,439 Speaker 6: Asia continue to be the super growth market for the latter. Yes, 367 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:31,119 Speaker 6: it's very clear that during the demographics in Asion, and 368 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 6: and and India, there's a huge advantage and growth potential there. 369 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:40,199 Speaker 6: For China not so clear. And as I said, the 370 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 6: debt problem is really a huge problem for them, especially 371 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 6: at the local level, and it's the off balance sheet 372 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 6: dead the local government financing vehicles they call them. 373 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 2: What do the em Central bankers or for that matter, 374 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 2: the managing director Gargava the i m F. What do 375 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 2: they want from Chairman Powell at Jackson Hole. 376 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:04,200 Speaker 6: I think the one thing they want from the United 377 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,400 Speaker 6: States is a stability of policy and consistency of policy. 378 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:14,439 Speaker 6: You can't have the kind of database strategy that is 379 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 6: so data dependent that you can't say how we're targeting inflation, 380 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:24,680 Speaker 6: whether we're going to be continuing to subsidize certain industries 381 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 6: to try to attract them back on board. I think 382 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:32,159 Speaker 6: the foreign companies as well as foreign governments and our 383 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:35,159 Speaker 6: own government, our own domestic companies. I'm looking for our 384 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 6: government to be much more consistent in our policies. 385 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:53,360 Speaker 2: Billy, thank you so much. With Milkin in the front pages, 386 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 2: of course, A Lisa Mateo, our Lisa Matteo. 387 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 7: All right, So the US open begins next week, right, 388 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 7: the feeders already started, but the Wall Street Journal is 389 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 7: saying that Americans they're going to have more to cheer 390 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 7: about because five US men, five US women. They're ranked 391 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 7: in that top twenty for the first time since nineteen 392 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 7: ninety seven. So for the women, you have Cocoa Goff 393 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 7: right and a number three she wants to defend her 394 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 7: US Open Women's singles title. You have Jessica Pagoula is 395 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 7: another one there, Danielle Collins and the Navarro Madison keys. 396 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 1: And then on the men's side, you have Ben. 397 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:29,479 Speaker 7: Shelton, he's thirteenth in the world, Taylor fitz Fritz, Tommy 398 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 7: Paul Sebastian Corda, Francis Tiaffo, he's a semi finalist in 399 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,119 Speaker 7: the US Open in twenty twenty two. But the last 400 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 7: time this is what I thought was interesting that they 401 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 7: had at least five men and women ranked in the 402 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:44,399 Speaker 7: top twenty was October nineteen ninety six. Pete Sampras was 403 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:46,639 Speaker 7: the number one men's player, so that's when it was 404 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,679 Speaker 7: go and Monica Sellis was a top ranked female player. 405 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 1: So that's how long it's been. 406 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:54,720 Speaker 2: I feel fortunate to have seen Forest Hills and really 407 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 2: lived in Yep. It was it was magical. I went 408 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 2: out to the Open a couple of years ago, seem 409 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 2: a right of Kanu and and I just it's just 410 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 2: too many people. It was just they could like take 411 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:08,120 Speaker 2: a thousand or two thousand people away. 412 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 4: And to me, I'm going, I'm going next Tuesday. Almost 413 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:13,399 Speaker 4: i won't be here case because I'm gonna be the 414 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 4: first Tuesday of the tournament. Every year. It's the best 415 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:19,119 Speaker 4: day to go out there. And they process all these people. 416 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,880 Speaker 4: I think, very very they do fair. And I think 417 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 4: the US Open is a quintessential New York City event. 418 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,879 Speaker 4: It's just it is the one of the greatest things 419 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 4: in New York City. I think. So I'll be at 420 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 4: their next Tuesday. 421 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 7: You know what it's going to be there to Carol Master, 422 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:37,760 Speaker 7: Tim Senovik. They're reporting live there Thursday Friday. 423 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,680 Speaker 4: Of of course they are their thirsday, their stars. They 424 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 4: get the good stuff they get, they get to go there. 425 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:44,439 Speaker 4: You know, Alex Steele and I would go to like 426 00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:47,480 Speaker 4: what are we Memphis? You know they get the US Open. 427 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,959 Speaker 4: I get it. It's it's you and I are at 428 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 4: the Dunkin Donuts exactly. 429 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,199 Speaker 2: And they're at the open with Coco next. 430 00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 7: I'm not sure if you've been to an ATM late 431 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 7: that's not in your network. 432 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:03,439 Speaker 1: If you notice how much they're charging you now for 433 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:04,679 Speaker 1: those please thank you. 434 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 7: Okay, so bank Rate did this study, can be those 435 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,919 Speaker 7: fees are at the highest rate. Four dollars and seventy 436 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 7: three per cents is the average, but some people have 437 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:17,120 Speaker 7: paid more. Atlanta actually gets the highest fees. So when 438 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,400 Speaker 7: you go out of network. The good news that bank 439 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 7: rate did find is that overdraft fees are the lowest 440 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,639 Speaker 7: and nearly two gig decades so. But the thing is 441 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 7: is that about ninety one percent of the banks that 442 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,399 Speaker 7: they surveyed still charge the over draft fees. 443 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,640 Speaker 1: No, you're still kind of basing that part. 444 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,359 Speaker 4: I mean you have to have I mean, here we go, folks. 445 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,640 Speaker 4: This is how you roll. You get a big water 446 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:39,920 Speaker 4: of cash. That's how you do it. The kids don't 447 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 4: do that anymore? Did they don't do it? They don't 448 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 4: have cash. 449 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 1: No, I have to admit I don't really carry cash down. 450 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 1: I know you Venmo people. 451 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:50,680 Speaker 2: Yes, I think if you're Bernie Sanders lest I'm talking 452 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 2: to the Democratic National Convention, I don't I mean, I 453 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 2: totally get the overdraft charge. 454 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 1: You know, like you know that, you know you have 455 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,919 Speaker 1: no money business, right, But the. 456 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 2: Bank thing from a marketing standpoint, to go up to 457 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,880 Speaker 2: another bank where I may someday do business and they're 458 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 2: taking three dollars from me, yeap is insane. I don't 459 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:15,119 Speaker 2: get it. No, I just there's no there's no reason, 460 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 2: there's no. 461 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 1: Like, and I'll drive farther just to find my bixactly. 462 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 2: Does cost do ATM is a costco for you? 463 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,200 Speaker 1: They do? Actually, they do have next to the hot. 464 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 2: Place they charge your two dollars for the ATM fee, 465 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 2: where they get you fifty for the hot dog. 466 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:36,680 Speaker 1: This one I find interesting. This is in the Wall 467 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:37,359 Speaker 1: Street Journal. 468 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:42,440 Speaker 7: A lot more people now are getting hip and knee replacements. 469 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: Younger, so younger and younger. 470 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 7: Because they don't want to give up skiing, hiking, pickleball. 471 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,680 Speaker 7: They're more active in their fifties sixties. Obesity on the rise. 472 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 7: That extra weight puts more pressure on your joints. So 473 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,480 Speaker 7: they found that patients ages forty five to sixty four, 474 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,919 Speaker 7: a two hundred and eleven percent increase in hip replace 475 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,440 Speaker 7: meants two hundred and forty percent increase in knee replacements. 476 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 7: That's between two thousand and seven and twenty seventeen, so 477 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:08,520 Speaker 7: more people are getting these surgeries. 478 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 1: The technology is of course better. 479 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 4: But yeah, they want to stay that used to sideline. 480 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 1: They don't want to be in the side. 481 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 4: Now now you can get right back up on that stuff. 482 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: So all right, it's like my mom, she's going for 483 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,200 Speaker 1: the surgery. She wants to keep playing tennis. 484 00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 3: Is that right? Good for seventy three? 485 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,879 Speaker 2: I didn't know. I have a friend Carl, who wanted 486 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 2: to extend his NHL career. You know, he's looking at 487 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,680 Speaker 2: Chris Chellio. So when he played for the Red Wings, Carl, 488 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 2: you know, and he got both hips done, both knees, 489 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 2: both this, both. 490 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 3: This, and he's great and he feels good. 491 00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 2: You should see him. He back checks like nobody. I know, 492 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,920 Speaker 2: he comes back down the ice. He's up somewhere in 493 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 2: happy Land in New Hampshire, and you know he backchecks 494 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 2: like a twenty five year old. I don't know how 495 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 2: he does. He's got fake hips, fake knees, fake this, 496 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 2: fake that works, and you know he's he literally back 497 00:24:58,400 --> 00:24:59,680 Speaker 2: checks like a twenty five year old. 498 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 7: What do you Maybe that's the key then, speaking of 499 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,400 Speaker 7: which you know people living longer. The world's oldest person 500 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 7: has passed away one hundred and seventeen years old. Can 501 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,119 Speaker 7: you have sev one hundred and seventeen. Her name is 502 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:19,080 Speaker 7: Maria Branyas Moden. Now she's an American born Spanish woman, 503 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:21,200 Speaker 7: and she has this huge. 504 00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:22,880 Speaker 1: Following on social media. Of course she does. 505 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 7: She's called the super Catalan Grandma, so that's her handle. 506 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:31,800 Speaker 7: Everybody like loves her. But she says, you know, she 507 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 7: was aston Pattis interviews what's a secret, Like, what's the 508 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:35,679 Speaker 7: secret to living longer? 509 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,080 Speaker 1: And she says she doesn't really do anything special. She 510 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,440 Speaker 1: didn't smoke. She likes to eat yogurt, ding ding ding. 511 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:44,920 Speaker 1: There you go. She does moderate exercise. 512 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:47,880 Speaker 4: But she had like a note story here indication. 513 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,880 Speaker 1: Of cancer anything never shows. China's dementia. 514 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,919 Speaker 4: Born March fourth, nineteen oh seven, in San Francisco. Facing 515 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 4: dire straits, the family returned to Spain when mister Bronias, 516 00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,119 Speaker 4: when Miss Bronias was a child on the boat to Spain, 517 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 4: her father died of tuberculosis. I mean, these stories back 518 00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 4: from this story unbelievable. 519 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 2: Yeah. 520 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 7: Yeah, she went on and got married, three kids, more 521 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:09,399 Speaker 7: than a dozen grandkids. 522 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,680 Speaker 4: So there she lived through the country civil war and 523 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,000 Speaker 4: the brutal Franco regime. She had clear memories of the 524 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,639 Speaker 4: D Day invasion at Normandy, she told the Spanish newspaper, 525 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:19,880 Speaker 4: I mean unbelievable. 526 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,399 Speaker 2: Unbelievable. Now this is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you 527 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:28,119 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 528 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,480 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 529 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:36,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 530 00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:39,280 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 531 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 532 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:47,879 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, 533 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.