WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 7th, 2025 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:15.480 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.720 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amerie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.319 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.600 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Stephanie Roth of Wolf 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:40.320 for Research right in this data this week has been disappointing. 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:43.239 The labor market has decelerated, but it's not clear it's 0:00:43.240 --> 0:00:46.040 getting worse. Stephanie joins us now for more. Steph goodmonic, 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:47.920 Good morning. Any signs of stabilization. 0:00:48.560 --> 0:00:50.680 Yeah, I mean we saw ADP looks better than where 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:53.560 it's been. Of course, we're all now focusing on Tier 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:55.800 three data because that's all we have to focus on. 0:00:56.040 --> 0:00:56.520 The challenge. 0:00:56.600 --> 0:00:58.760 Numbers have swooped a lot of people, but I have 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:01.280 to say that is is based on headlines and we 0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:03.720 knew that ups for example, that was a big driver 0:01:03.800 --> 0:01:06.200 of the warehousing number that has happened throughout the course 0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:08.720 of this year, largely through attrition. We knew the Amazon 0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:11.679 number had come out, that was part of that the 0:01:11.720 --> 0:01:12.520 October data. 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:13.959 So our sense is. 0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:16.320 That the land market has decelerated, that's what we're picking 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:18.480 up here, but it doesn't appear to be actually necessarily 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:20.760 getting worse. And then the picture for the economy on 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:23.160 that go forward basis is actually pretty decent. We have 0:01:23.840 --> 0:01:26.440 likely tariff and certainty is fading to some extent. 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:27.520 We know that we kind of. 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:30.200 Have a floor in terms of tariffs. We have financial 0:01:30.240 --> 0:01:33.560 conditions have eased, we have fiscal stimulus is going to 0:01:33.600 --> 0:01:36.120 have a supporting impact on the low end consumer. 0:01:36.400 --> 0:01:37.399 So even though we're in. 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:39.520 A place where the economy is kind of sluggish, the 0:01:39.720 --> 0:01:42.240 factors are looking pretty decent For twenty twenty six. 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:44.880 You said something about the challenger job announcements or layoff 0:01:45.400 --> 0:01:47.600 planned cuts, and I think that it's really important the 0:01:47.640 --> 0:01:50.520 idea that a bulk of this could come from UPS 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:53.440 and Amazon, both of which were reported, and has to 0:01:53.440 --> 0:01:56.880 do with warehousing on the UPS side and artificial intelligence 0:01:57.000 --> 0:02:00.160 on the Amazon side. How much are we conflating a 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:04.040 single name story with a broader market trend where AI 0:02:04.120 --> 0:02:05.520 has already taking people's jobs. 0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:07.560 Yeah, I mean, I think that's the case of someone 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:10.000 and the Amazon numbers aren't that large relative to the 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:12.840 size of its workforce. So even though we've seen some 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:15.600 of these layoff announcements that are tied to AI, some 0:02:15.680 --> 0:02:19.000 of this ends up coming out through attrition like the ups, 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:24.880 and it's not entirely clear that AI has really been 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:27.680 taking that many jobs so far. Looking forward, it might be, 0:02:28.000 --> 0:02:31.360 but if you look at a correlation between AI usage 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:33.720 by industry and the slowdown in payrolls growth, you don't 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:37.040 see much of a correlation outside of tech, professional services 0:02:37.080 --> 0:02:39.040 and then a little bit of finance. So it's not 0:02:39.240 --> 0:02:40.880 necessarily the explanatory story. 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:43.639 Yet in the absence of non figm payrolls data, a 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:46.959 lot of people are thinking big, asking large questions, filling 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:49.840 time with other things. I'm just wondering how much people 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:53.440 are trying to understand the AI growth story and how 0:02:53.560 --> 0:02:56.440 much it's propping up and frankly masking the weakness that 0:02:56.480 --> 0:02:59.919 we're seeing in other pockets, particularly from and we keep 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:03.480 talking about fast casual restaurants just simply because that's the 0:03:03.560 --> 0:03:05.440 data that we have, but you know, it sort of 0:03:05.440 --> 0:03:08.920 speaks to a really lopsided economy heavily weighted to the 0:03:08.919 --> 0:03:09.680 AI story. 0:03:10.280 --> 0:03:12.880 So I mean, I think the case shaped economy story 0:03:12.960 --> 0:03:15.240 is right, but it's not necessarily the bottom part of 0:03:15.240 --> 0:03:17.320 that k is getting that much worse. We're just hearing 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:19.800 a lot of company announcements related to that, and we 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:21.800 don't have any other data to the up to the 0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:24.680 other side, which tends to capture the broader picture of 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:27.679 the consumer. And then the AI story is driving a 0:03:27.919 --> 0:03:30.600 decent portion of growth, as R estimates or that it's 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:33.120 nearly a quarter of the growth of not maybe a 0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:35.280 tiny bit less than that, but it's certainly not half 0:03:35.320 --> 0:03:37.360 of the growth, and it is part of the economy. 0:03:37.360 --> 0:03:38.840 There are a lot of people who are employed and 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:42.520 investing in CAPBAX and that is a support for growth 0:03:42.560 --> 0:03:43.360 that is durable. 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:45.520 Stephanie, I want to pick up here on your point 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:47.960 that the market has kind of an investors have kind 0:03:47.960 --> 0:03:51.200 of moved past the tariff story. What if IEPA, though, 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:53.280 does get struck down by the Supreme Court. 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:54.760 Then they'll recreate it. 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:58.720 So we're really talking about here is about one hundred 0:03:58.800 --> 0:04:02.640 billion dollars windfall to companies potentially depending on how this 0:04:02.720 --> 0:04:05.280 all plays out in terms of Terraff refunds. 0:04:04.920 --> 0:04:06.160 They might be eligible to get. 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:09.280 Otherwise, on a forward looking basis, the Administration is likely 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:12.240 to recreate the Terraff structure very similar to how it 0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:15.560 stands today, which is why the bond market doesn't necessarily 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:16.800 have to react so significantly. 0:04:16.839 --> 0:04:19.279 But it will take a lot longer to recreate that 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:22.120 structure using two thirty, twos, three or ones. When would 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:25.440 the hit beyond consumers if they have to recreate that structure. 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:28.799 I don't know if it will end up being that big. 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:30.799 Of a hit on consumers in the sense that companies 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.080 have raised the prices, they're not going to lower the 0:04:33.160 --> 0:04:34.560 prices as the worst. We're not going to see much 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:37.880 volatility depending on how the terra structure works. So companies 0:04:37.920 --> 0:04:41.920 have slowly moved their pricing mechanism higher. They know, especially 0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:43.960 if it ends up getting struck down, they know that 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:47.320 it will largely be recreated. The Administration will certainly communicate that, 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:51.160 in which case the pricing effects will continue to kind 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:53.120 of be the case, and then companies will maybe more 0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:56.359 slowly pass through the price increases. Our estimates suggests that 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:59.600 about sixty a little above sixty percent of the tariffs 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:02.679 that we that are implemented and expected have been absorbed 0:05:02.680 --> 0:05:05.320 by parts of the supply chain, so it's the exporter, 0:05:05.520 --> 0:05:07.680 the retailer, and the consumer. So we've already gone through 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:09.520 a lot of it. There is certainly more to come, 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:11.679 which is why we should see upper pressure un prices 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:12.760 for the next six months. 0:05:12.920 --> 0:05:15.240 Was oktober Chairpound's last right cut? 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:18.520 No, I think he'll probably do one more, Yeah, just 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:20.040 the one. I think he'll do one more, and then 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:23.040 we'll probably get an additional one to two beyond that. 0:05:23.440 --> 0:05:25.039 You see a difference between the leadership. 0:05:25.040 --> 0:05:26.800 Once he's gone, we're gonna have a more damage fed 0:05:27.200 --> 0:05:28.640 after may or do you think it's going to be 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:31.680 just as conflicted, just as readlocks, just as goodlocked. 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:33.760 I think we'll see, of course that the chair may 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:36.240 be dubbished themselves, but that doesn't mean the committee is 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:38.159 going to go alongside that. We've seen a committee that 0:05:38.320 --> 0:05:40.760 is certainly divided. That's been quite clear over the past 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:43.240 couple of months. So our expectation is they're not going 0:05:43.279 --> 0:05:46.520 to really change policy that much as a result, and yes, 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:48.440 they probably will want to cut a couple more times 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:50.680 beyond that, just to get to something that they think 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:53.880 is closer to neutral, and the economy will probably be 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:56.640 in a decent place throughout. 0:05:56.400 --> 0:05:57.080 Much of next year. 0:05:57.760 --> 0:06:10.200 Stay with us, mul Bloomberg saving up after this. Bran 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:13.400 Gandra Stifel rights the following. Some Democrats will likely see 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:16.800 Tuesday's election as a validation of that shutdown strategy. The 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:18.719 chances of the shutdown last thing it to the next 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:22.039 week and be umed have increased. Brian, Welcome to the program. 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:24.640 Are you suggesting that those wins are more relevant than 0:06:24.640 --> 0:06:27.280 the potential chaos across the country's airports. 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:31.280 In the minds of some Democrats? Yes, I mean not 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:34.159 all Democrats. I don't think, Jonathan, that you can paint 0:06:34.200 --> 0:06:37.400 with too broader brush. I think there are some more 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:42.919 aggressive Democrats, some more firebrand type Democrats, who see Tuesday's 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:45.880 results of a validation of their strategy and they think 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:47.600 they have the wind at their back and they are 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:49.480 going to double down and push for more. 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:53.600 Then you do have some moderates who want a solution. 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:56.640 And look, I think you can argue that you know, 0:06:56.720 --> 0:06:59.279 Tuesday's election results gave us a split view of the 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:03.080 Democratic part nationally. Uh the firebrands one in New York, 0:07:03.120 --> 0:07:07.159 but the more moderates one in Virginia in New Jersey. 0:07:07.200 --> 0:07:08.000 So there is a bit of. 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:11.200 A split among Democrats about what their strategy is going forward. 0:07:11.320 --> 0:07:13.920 And in Virginia, the exit polls said that the shutdown 0:07:14.240 --> 0:07:17.960 was weighing on the workers, those individuals that went out 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:20.960 to vote. Obviously, they house so many of these federal workers. 0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:24.760 Can you see Virginia senators signing up for clean resolution? 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:28.160 You know, it's a great question, Amory. 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:31.520 I mean, because Virginia is, you know, among the two 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:34.320 one of the two states that's grand zero along with 0:07:34.360 --> 0:07:37.960 Maryland in terms of government workers. But the two Democratic 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:42.720 senators have have pretty much held strong. I haven't detected 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:45.920 that they're breaking from the rest of the group yet 0:07:45.960 --> 0:07:49.320 and joining the more moderates who are are pushing for 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:50.240 a reopening. 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:52.920 I may be missing something on that, but they are. 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:53.840 Those are two. 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:56.320 People that I would I would look to very closely 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:59.720 to see if there's going to be a break among Democrats, 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.840 if they're is going to be real progress in these talks. 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:07.120 You would think that Senators Kine and Warner would be front. 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:09.600 And the center wouldn't just be enough as an off 0:08:09.680 --> 0:08:12.600 ramp for the Democrats to get a vote Senate majority 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:14.840 Leader Foon put a vote on the floor for the 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:18.400 enhanced expiring healthcare subsidies or do they actually need a 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:20.040 plan to extend them. 0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:25.000 That's the big question again. I think it shows the 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:27.280 split in the Democratic Party. I think this. 0:08:27.520 --> 0:08:30.680 I think for some Centrists they would be okay with it, 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:35.080 but the firebrands for now are pressuring them not to 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:38.280 not to give in on that. And so so far, 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:42.000 I think the louder voices in the party, the more 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:45.280 aggressive voices are in the party, are winning out, you know, 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:49.120 in terms of party unity and keeping everybody on the 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:52.280 same page. At some point, though, if we get into 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:54.760 the weekend or next week and we have those those 0:08:54.800 --> 0:08:59.720 airline delays and the cuts in social safety net programs 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:03.600 really start to get to the bone, maybe then you'll 0:09:03.600 --> 0:09:07.320 see a change in uh in tactics and strategy among 0:09:07.360 --> 0:09:09.440 the Democrats. But I gotta say, I mean, it's been 0:09:09.480 --> 0:09:13.400 impressive to watch them stay unified, whether you agree with 0:09:13.440 --> 0:09:17.720 their policy or not. Their their sense of unity has 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:19.160 been pretty impressive throughout this. 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:22.440 What's your sense about the reduction in flights that we 0:09:22.480 --> 0:09:24.920 are seeing right now in the mandate coming from the FAA. 0:09:24.960 --> 0:09:27.079 Do you think that this is actually a safety issue 0:09:27.120 --> 0:09:28.440 or do you think this is trying to raise the 0:09:28.440 --> 0:09:30.720 pressure to get some sort of conclusion sooner. 0:09:31.080 --> 0:09:35.680 Oh, I wouldn't be that cynical, Lisa. I mean, look, 0:09:35.800 --> 0:09:37.240 and I'm somebody who you know. 0:09:37.440 --> 0:09:39.520 My flight was in canceled last night, but I ran 0:09:39.559 --> 0:09:41.400 into a bunch of delays, So I mean, I think 0:09:41.440 --> 0:09:44.240 travelers are really going to start to feel it. But no, 0:09:44.800 --> 0:09:47.199 there's politics going on here. You know, let's go back 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:50.040 to Casavlonica. Shock that there's gambling going on. I'm shocked 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:53.280 that there's that there's politics going on here. I'm sure 0:09:53.320 --> 0:09:57.720 there is a level of safety uh at work here, 0:09:58.000 --> 0:09:59.880 but there's a level of politics as well. 0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:02.120 So you're not that cynical, but it could be true, right, 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:05.199 I am curious, but I am curious. You know, there 0:10:05.280 --> 0:10:07.319 was this move yesterday that I thought was pretty telling 0:10:07.640 --> 0:10:10.840 when senators, Republican senators push back against President Trump, and 0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:13.880 after that breakfast they signaled that they were not going 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:17.560 to nuke the filibuster akin to what he was looking for. 0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:18.720 How big of a deal is that? 0:10:20.720 --> 0:10:23.920 In longer term, it's a big deal because it has 0:10:24.040 --> 0:10:28.000 ramifications for both parties going forward in the short term. 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:32.480 You know, I think it's starting to signal that and 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:33.600 we have to read this in the. 0:10:33.520 --> 0:10:37.200 Context of Tuesday's results, that some Republicans are going to 0:10:37.200 --> 0:10:39.560 start to look in terms of self preservation and they're 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:42.040 not going to be as locked up with the White 0:10:42.040 --> 0:10:44.440 House as they have been, and they probably are going 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:48.840 to feel a little bit more looking longer term to 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:52.560 what's in their best interest, not just what their relationship 0:10:52.600 --> 0:10:54.439 is like with the White House at any given moment. 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:56.600 Brian, if you go to hotel, it's the one on 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:57.200 the Canada. 0:10:58.679 --> 0:10:58.760 No. 0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:02.400 I mean, Jonathan, I could, I could give you, you know, 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:05.400 Monday or Tuesday. But you know, I was so wrong 0:11:05.440 --> 0:11:07.640 at the beginning of the shutdown when I really thought 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:11.320 it was going to be a shorter uh stalemate than 0:11:11.360 --> 0:11:11.800 it has. 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:12.280 Proven to be. 0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:16.000 And I think, not just me, but talking to people 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:17.480 up on the hill, I think they've given up on 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:21.120 trying to handicap this as well. I thought it, you know, 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:23.240 after Tuesday, I thought it would go into the weekend. 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:28.000 I think maybe we get into early next week and 0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:30.040 there's an out, but you know, who knows. 0:11:30.040 --> 0:11:30.520 At this point. 0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:32.000 I think I think a lot of us have been 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:33.920 I have underestimated how long this. 0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:34.280 Would go on. 0:11:35.080 --> 0:11:38.600 Stay with us multiple IMPERG surveillance coming up after this. 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:50.000 Not the level of you Bes Global Weath's management rightting 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:53.320 well Alephated valuations continue to raise concerns and could lead 0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:57.480 to increased volatility. We believe the underlying fundamentals remain strong 0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:00.720 and consider market pullbacks as bank up two Now they 0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:01.400 get joined us now. 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:03.880 For more Nadia, good morning, good morning. What happened to 0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:05.800 the year? Und mounts up? Where did it go? What 0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:06.320 went wrong? 0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:12.360 It's only been a week, John, We think that it's 0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:16.320 still there. Right of course, investors are again confronted with 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:19.440 this wall of worry. Just we have the government shut down, 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:22.760 we have concerns around AI spending. We have hawkish you know, 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:27.400 rhetoric from the fad but that could cost some volatility 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:28.520 in the near term as we know it. 0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:29.840 But we do think. 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:32.720 That that wall of warry will be climbed because the 0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:35.320 fundamentals are there. When you look at the urning season, 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:39.839 you know, above expectations, even our elevated expectations for ten 0:12:39.880 --> 0:12:42.360 percent EPs growth through the quarter. When it's all said 0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:45.040 and done, we could get something in the midteen. So 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:47.880 we think that that will continue to support the market 0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:50.520 once we get through this shoppiness. And now, so why 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:52.760 we think that there's not going to be any sort 0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:55.440 of significant pull box because we do think that, particularly 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:57.359 on the institutional side, we'll step. 0:12:57.120 --> 0:12:58.240 In and buy. I'm with you. 0:12:58.360 --> 0:12:59.880 It tells you something about the market when you get 0:12:59.880 --> 0:13:01.760 to three percent move on tech stocks and the best 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:04.719 not pumping champagne. They've had a tough year, particularly off 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:06.960 the loads of April. Let's talk about the move into 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:08.679 year end and the subtle science we're getting from the 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:11.520 price section in response to earnings, Lisa's going through a 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:14.559 range of equities that we've seen report earnings, decent earnings, 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:15.839 and this market is pushed back. 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:16.400 That's new. 0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:19.080 We haven't been seeing that over previous quarters. They've been 0:13:19.080 --> 0:13:21.280 rewarded for decent earnings. What's changed. 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:24.920 I think what's changed is that you know, evaluations, people 0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:28.160 are focused on the valuations. Also, you're seeing some weakness 0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:32.600 in tech and that's causing some nervousness. And it's fair 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.400 for you know, tech investors to start to say, where's 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:38.840 the monetization of this? But realistically it will take some 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:40.560 time to get there, but I think you're starting to 0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:43.080 see evidence of that. If you look at the earning 0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:46.439 seas and particularly around cloud growth, right that's where you're 0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:50.720 seeing the monetization. You've see a AWS printed twelve twenty 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:53.480 percent year over year growth on acceleration of two hundred 0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:56.040 basis points from the last quarter. You've seen a similar 0:13:56.080 --> 0:14:00.640 acceleration from Google thirty four percent, and then micros off also, 0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:03.680 you know forty percent in terms of the Azure revenue growth. 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:07.920 Ultimately is a supply constraint that's holding back even those 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:11.959 high growth. So we do think that investors will come back, 0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:15.240 you know, and reassess some of these fundamentals and realize 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:17.480 that they actually have been quite strong. 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:20.480 Jonathan, you can dismiss the pullback that we've seen over 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:22.280 the past week is just saying, okay, it's just been 0:14:22.320 --> 0:14:25.080 one week. That said, you have seen a shift where 0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:26.720 momentum and that whole. 0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:27.520 Trade has been unwinding. 0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:29.720 We've seen that meme stocks, We've seen that with bitcoin, 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:32.120 We've seen that even on the peripherez of gold. We've 0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:34.880 seen that with a number of some non profitable techniques 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:36.000 that also got bid up. 0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:38.520 What do you think is behind that look. 0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:43.120 Reality is, did the market run fast too fast, too 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:46.200 quickly in the last month. You can make that argument, yes, 0:14:46.280 --> 0:14:47.280 and so taking. 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:47.920 Some off the table. 0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:50.760 It's a natural sort of course in terms of, you know, 0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:53.400 a pullback. We haven't even gotten to five percent, and 0:14:53.440 --> 0:14:55.120 I think once you get to that five or six 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:57.400 is or even seven percent, which you don't think you're 0:14:57.440 --> 0:14:59.040 going to get to, then you're going to see money 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:01.440 start to come back into the market. So I think 0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:04.800 it's just sort of a reallocation and looking for those 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:09.600 opportunities where particularly some on the laguer side, even in healthcare, 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:11.320 I think the money will start to flow into that. 0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:13.720 And so it's taken a little bit all over the 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:15.680 table on some of the winners, and then I think 0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:17.520 in the year end you start to see some of 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:18.520 the laggers get a bit. 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:19.880 On the index level. 0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:21.440 It hasn't been that big of a drawdown, and you 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:23.560 take a look at an index of MEME stocks. It 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:26.480 was down five percent yesterday, it's down seventeen percent from 0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:28.760 the peak. At what point do you think that some 0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:33.280 of these losses will affect retail appetite and retail psychology. 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:34.560 Given what a big role they've played. 0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:37.440 Maybe not in the overall total market cap, but certainly 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:39.160 when it came to comes to trading volumes. 0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:42.360 Yes, you're absolutely right. The retails of investors have been 0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:44.800 a big buyer of this market. But again, I think 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:48.720 it goes back to reallocating some of those resources to 0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:52.320 other parts of the market, the main stocks. At the 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:53.880 end of the day, it's going to be the earners 0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:55.720 that is going to drive this market, and so I 0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:58.000 think that you are going to see those quality names 0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:01.080 start to get a bit again. Taking out some of 0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:03.120 the front of the market is a healthy part of 0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:06.200 the process, Lisa. In our view, we don't want this 0:16:06.400 --> 0:16:09.440 market to run up too quickly. As we were discussing earlier. 0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:11.440 It's given those people who have been waiting on the 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:13.480 sideline and an opportunity, and there is a lot of 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:17.040 cash still on the sideline, particularly those institutional investors that 0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:19.080 has missed some of this rally that we think that 0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:21.400 we'll make up just kind of close that on the 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:23.640 performance gap into year end, that we'll come back into 0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:26.800 this market, but again focusing on those more quality areas, 0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:29.360 and that's sort of the mean nonprofitable areas of the market. 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:32.400 Nadia, the government shut down continues to drag on any 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:34.520 of this. What's going on the market being driven at 0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:37.560 this moment a little bit right by policy uncertainty in Washington. 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:39.960 I think, so particularly around what it could do to 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:43.400 consumer sentiments and what it could do to spend spending 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:47.080 going forward. Reality is people aren't getting paid and if 0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:50.080 that weighs on the sentiment, particularly into the holiday season, 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:52.840 you could see some pullback, particularly in some of the 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:56.600 consumer names, So that starting to drag on the market 0:16:56.720 --> 0:16:58.920 on the margin. But I think, you know, as we've 0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:02.000 been discussing this more in that as we approach the 0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:06.439 holiday season, particularly Thanksgiving, you're likely to see the government 0:17:06.520 --> 0:17:08.760 start to take this a little bit more seriously in 0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:11.679 terms of what is doing to the American consumer and 0:17:11.720 --> 0:17:14.080 reopen the government. I mean, I hear from my mom 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:17.000 who runs our church pantry that the reality is you're 0:17:17.000 --> 0:17:20.159 seeing long lines there. So people are suffering, right and 0:17:20.240 --> 0:17:23.040 I think that there are will there are calling their 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:25.520 representative just sort of reopen the stuff. 0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:25.840 I think the. 0:17:25.840 --> 0:17:27.440 Government reopens before Thanksgiving. 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:28.399 I do, I do. 0:17:28.520 --> 0:17:31.439 We do think that it's not a guaranteed. Look, you know, 0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:34.640 nothing is ever guaranteed, but it does feel that way 0:17:34.680 --> 0:17:36.960 that momentum is building to reopen this government in the 0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:37.879 next couple of weeks. 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:39.480 Stay with us. 0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:42.480 More Blomberg surveillance coming up after this. 0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:51.679 Infest. 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:53.720 The struggling to reach consensus on the state of the 0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:56.920 economy with alternative dake to sending mixed signals. Premiser of 0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:59.439 JP Morgan writing, we remained in a self lending but 0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:03.080 I don't see any scientific economy reaccelerating and resuscue to 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:05.560 the downside. On the labor market, Prayer joints us now 0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:08.000 for more preaking Monic Marning. No payroll dates are eight 0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:10.800 thirty Eastern times, so when they're talking about challenger job cuts. 0:18:10.880 --> 0:18:13.960 Now typically we dignore challenger job cuts. How much is 0:18:13.960 --> 0:18:15.040 that takes are actually worth? 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:16.560 So I mean a. 0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:18.840 Lot of this ADP. You have to look at the 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:21.919 totality of data. I do miss payrolls. Let's spend a 0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:25.639 second saying it was good data. I just never thanked 0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:28.000 it before, and now two months in hero we haven't 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:31.040