Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily
Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance,
Speaker 1: investment and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com and of course, on the Bloomberg Right now,
Speaker 1: Joshua Hardy joins us. He is with the Confederation of
Speaker 1: British Industry in London, their deputy Director at General. But
Speaker 1: his he is uniquely qualified to talk about what we're
Speaker 1: witnessing at Dover because for eight years before working with
Speaker 1: the c IB he was with Tesco, which is a
Speaker 1: small grocery store with headaches every day. I'm getting produced
Speaker 1: out there. Josh Hardy, you are uniquely qualified to speak
Speaker 1: about the position of business in England right now, a
Speaker 1: Tier four lockdown, Tesco just trying to get things done
Speaker 1: as it is. What do you perceived to be business
Speaker 1: into the end of the year and into January. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean we're all on tender hooks here in the UK.
Speaker 1: We've been we've been waiting for four and a half
Speaker 1: years for a Brexit deal and for clarity um and
Speaker 1: now well we've been hours away for about twenty four
Speaker 1: hours so we're the first thing is we are just
Speaker 1: desperately hoping that by the end of the day we
Speaker 1: get an announcement on that deal because that matters so
Speaker 1: much for businesses. It is that certainty about the trading
Speaker 1: relationship with our biggest trading partner. What will that look like,
Speaker 1: whether you're in food, whether or you're in farmer, whether
Speaker 1: you're in services. Absolutely critical. So let's get that deal
Speaker 1: over the line, because it is so better than no deal.
Speaker 1: The United Kingdom clothes that we see here, and of
Speaker 1: course sterling is what everybody's watching. Euro Sterling is so
Speaker 1: important to all in this great Tontal debate. But the
Speaker 1: cable we look at as well, one six earlier and
Speaker 1: it's ebbed away here on doubts of a press conference
Speaker 1: and over fishing rights as well. Josh Hardy, we're fighting
Speaker 1: for stimulus in America. Some would say it is income substitution.
Speaker 1: Is business receiving aid from the government in the United Kingdom,
Speaker 1: quite different from what we see in the United States. UM,
Speaker 1: I think the principles are often the same in that
Speaker 1: there's there's a principle that we set up here very
Speaker 1: early with the government around COVID and the pandemic much
Speaker 1: more than around Brexit, of course, which was we're going
Speaker 1: to have to recover from this, and to recover you
Speaker 1: need businesses ready to grow when the lockdown keease, and
Speaker 1: they're going to need your help. So we've got wage
Speaker 1: subsidy schemes here, we've got tax deferrals, we've got a
Speaker 1: broad package of measures. But of course we've now gone
Speaker 1: into this thing called Tier four lockdown and across the
Speaker 1: majority of the country, which is which is a pretty
Speaker 1: full lockdown. So we need to keep an eagle eye
Speaker 1: business resilience stripped away through the pandemic of court everybody everywhere,
Speaker 1: not just here, um if with it to be in
Speaker 1: this situation for the next few months as that vaccine
Speaker 1: is rolled out, we need to protect as many businesses
Speaker 1: as possible, because they will what will power that recovery.
Speaker 1: On the other side, is there a frustration Josh that fishing,
Speaker 1: even though it accounts for such a small proportion of
Speaker 1: the economy and the overall trade with the European Union,
Speaker 1: has dominated talks that have made life so difficult for
Speaker 1: the CFOs of the businesses you speak with. I mean
Speaker 1: yes and no. Of course, did you just put an
Speaker 1: economic lens on this UM. Fishing is not a substantial
Speaker 1: part of the UK economy UM, and the rest of
Speaker 1: the economy can feel like it's being held hostage by
Speaker 1: something that is economically relatively small. But we know we've
Speaker 1: been in this game for a long time. This is
Speaker 1: not just about economics. This is about sovereignty UM, and
Speaker 1: that is something that the government have to respect and
Speaker 1: have to have to work with. So having that control
Speaker 1: over fishing rights, being able to show that you do
Speaker 1: have sovereignty is we understand important. But it feels like
Speaker 1: we are we are in those final last yards. They're
Speaker 1: always the hardest, aren't they. But it feels like a
Speaker 1: deal can be done where that sovereignty has maintained and
Speaker 1: where the rest of the economy can actually get benefits
Speaker 1: and grow. So I can't say too much about it
Speaker 1: now because there will be two thousand pages of LEI
Speaker 1: legal texts that we get in our in our Christmas
Speaker 1: stocking to go through. But we we hope that's there
Speaker 1: and we hope it's over the line. Josh Hardy, thank
Speaker 1: you so much. We see IBC this morning. We have
Speaker 1: taken pride in our coverage of this pandemic starting in
Speaker 1: February and March really with the leadership of the United
Speaker 1: Kingdom medical community over to Johns Hopkins, and part of
Speaker 1: that discussion has been Albert co of University. He is
Speaker 1: expert in the diseases across this world that involved bacteria
Speaker 1: and virology. He's also expert in understanding the need for vaccine.
Speaker 1: He will have the courage to be vaccinated, I believe
Speaker 1: on Monday. Albert Co. You know that Yale University ages ago,
Speaker 1: beginning in eighteen ninety seven and out of nine invented
Speaker 1: the syringe with the Beckton and Dickinson company. We take
Speaker 1: it for granted. Today tell us the medical evolution of
Speaker 1: getting that shot and why we should not be afraid today.
Speaker 1: All right, Tom, Well, thank you very much for having
Speaker 1: me back on. It's the stories of pleasure. So with
Speaker 1: respect to the medical evolution, you know, we have a
Speaker 1: hundred years or more of experiences vaccines and if you
Speaker 1: if we think of of one medical success story that
Speaker 1: that really changed our lives, it's been vaccinations in terms
Speaker 1: of prolonging life expectancy, decreasing childhood mortality. And now we
Speaker 1: come to COVID and you know there were the amazing
Speaker 1: work that has been done, the progress in you know,
Speaker 1: less than a year, we have a vaccine where you know,
Speaker 1: current clinical trials have you know, exhaustive studies have shown
Speaker 1: that it's a safe and effective vaccine. And I think
Speaker 1: that's a message that we really need to get out
Speaker 1: to everyone. It's on everyone's mind, whether you know this
Speaker 1: is we're in a pandemic that has been developed quickly.
Speaker 1: Is a vaccine safe and effective? And all the evidence
Speaker 1: we have, you know, UH points to a really another
Speaker 1: major medical success story in to make what is the
Speaker 1: most efficacious way to line up the ducks to get
Speaker 1: this done? How do we get millions of people most
Speaker 1: efficiently to get the vaccine. Yeah, So the first you know,
Speaker 1: the first step, you know, which was a tremendous amount
Speaker 1: of work, was to do all the research and development
Speaker 1: to get a vaccine. The hard work is now coming on.
Speaker 1: We have to now get um you know, raunches or
Speaker 1: swabs of populations vaccinated. And I think there's a couple
Speaker 1: of issues that are really important to UH to emphasize.
Speaker 1: The first is that we have to certainly protect our
Speaker 1: healthcare workers, essential workers, those that most risk for the
Speaker 1: disease we have to take care of the population here
Speaker 1: in the United States, and we're gonna have to vaccinate
Speaker 1: up to eight percent or more of the population so
Speaker 1: we can get back to normal or some semblance to normality.
Speaker 1: But the biggest issue is that we're going to have
Speaker 1: to protect the whole world. This is not just an
Speaker 1: American problems, not just the European problems. This is the
Speaker 1: problem that affecting the livelihoods of all people in the
Speaker 1: world at seven point eight billion people, And we're gonna
Speaker 1: have to think about the long run and how we're
Speaker 1: going to protect the populations across the world. In the
Speaker 1: medium run, as we unroll the vaccine into the general population,
Speaker 1: people keep getting the virus. We now have a total
Speaker 1: death count in access of three d and twenty thousand
Speaker 1: all right in the United States. We have a case
Speaker 1: count that is climbing every single day, and there is
Speaker 1: a question of what we can do to prevent death.
Speaker 1: How good have some of the remedies been. Has the
Speaker 1: therapeutics been to deal with the virus once people get
Speaker 1: it and get very sick from it. So so I think,
Speaker 1: you know, the Lisa, really the important issues that we're
Speaker 1: going to have to use you know, what we know
Speaker 1: is tried and true and work for the public health
Speaker 1: prevention in order to get ourselves into that phase where
Speaker 1: the vaccinine starts kicking in and decreases transmission. We do
Speaker 1: have improved, We've learned a lot in the last year
Speaker 1: about how to treat patients. We have, you know, therapies
Speaker 1: and mortalities such as steroids which decreases the risk of mortality.
Speaker 1: These to reduce the risk of mentality. So we don't
Speaker 1: have any game changers or home runs on the forefront
Speaker 1: of therapeutics at this point, and so we're going to
Speaker 1: have to rely on public health, you know, sound public
Speaker 1: health prevention to get over over this period. And we're
Speaker 1: going to have there's going to be a difficult next
Speaker 1: several months during these winter months as the surge is
Speaker 1: occurring not only you know, across the United States, but
Speaker 1: in many parts of the world. Can we get to
Speaker 1: her immunity if we can't get kids vaccinated, because from
Speaker 1: my understanding, they won't be able to get vaccinated likely
Speaker 1: until potentially late next year at the outset, based on
Speaker 1: the studies currently out there. Yeah, so, as you know,
Speaker 1: since the beginning where there's just been debate about her
Speaker 1: immunity and whether natural infection and we can get you know,
Speaker 1: enough people you know infected that there get they become
Speaker 1: immune due to natural and faction, and that would protect
Speaker 1: the rest of the population. You know, I worked in
Speaker 1: Brazil for twenty five years. One of the cities in Brazil,
Speaker 1: city of Monoits, which is hit the hardest. You know,
Speaker 1: I had an epidemic that affected seventy of the population.
Speaker 1: So if we're thinking about her immunity, those are the
Speaker 1: levels of people who are going to be affected to
Speaker 1: reach herd immunity. And that's that's a that's a rica,
Speaker 1: that's a disaster that we just can't can't accept. That
Speaker 1: also provides us a benchmark of how much how many
Speaker 1: people we need to vaccinate. We're going to have to
Speaker 1: vaccinate over seventy's my own, my own judgment at this moment,
Speaker 1: and we're learning more. We have to be humble and
Speaker 1: we're learning more each time, but we're gonna have to
Speaker 1: vaccinate large numbers are population to protect to get to
Speaker 1: that magic herd immunity threshold. Dr co thank you so
Speaker 1: much for being with us. Best of luck when you
Speaker 1: go get your vaccine. Are you worried? Are you excited
Speaker 1: for it? I'm not worried, and I'm excited and uh
Speaker 1: and I think we're really, you know, entering a new
Speaker 1: phase of how we're going to be able to deal
Speaker 1: with this vaccine now, and I'm just proud to be
Speaker 1: part of that. Albert Cole, thank you so much, greatly,
Speaker 1: greatly appreciate it. With a Yale School of Medicine, let
Speaker 1: us get here to an important conversation, jeff For you
Speaker 1: synthesizes what we see in economics and markets in a
Speaker 1: wonderful and delicate way. He's with B and Y. Melon
Speaker 1: to say he's their senior strategist doesn't give justice to
Speaker 1: what he grasped here. Of the dynamics as well, Jeffrey,
Speaker 1: you are disconced in tier four, Tier five, Tier six,
Speaker 1: somewhere in the vicinity of the microcosm of trucks stacked
Speaker 1: top in Southern England as well. Sometimes our macro economics
Speaker 1: are overcome by micro events. Tell us about the micro
Speaker 1: event of business investment and animal spirit in the next year,
Speaker 1: um next year, in one word, vaccine vaccinations. If that works,
Speaker 1: If the Biden administration can bring through a hundred million
Speaker 1: doses and a hundred days or out the form that
Speaker 1: be that Tony blads walking about giving additional dosage or
Speaker 1: ready to speed up the process if that works, and
Speaker 1: more spirits are going to let that. I've heard people
Speaker 1: talking into the roaring twenties again, are we going to
Speaker 1: have thees? So that's what people are hoping for, But
Speaker 1: so far government competence globally, I think still caution is needed. Jeff,
Speaker 1: you you were weaned on the ose. The history of
Speaker 1: the linkage of history and all of this from Lionel
Speaker 1: Robbins and of course the great Magna Decide among others,
Speaker 1: is well within this historical moment and all that we
Speaker 1: mumber babble about each and every day. Do you have
Speaker 1: an optimism that we get back to normality after the vaccine?
Speaker 1: Is it not V shaped, but is it literally stochastic
Speaker 1: where we explode back to a normal economy. It will
Speaker 1: be V shaped for some, it may not be the
Speaker 1: shape for others, and that again is going to be
Speaker 1: the policy challenge for some time. Remember a few months
Speaker 1: ago when we first talked about this. There will be
Speaker 1: winners and losers out of the recovery, and then governments
Speaker 1: will need to grapple with how do you ensure that
Speaker 1: the district ution is not too much concentrated within those
Speaker 1: who've done relatively okay out of the lockdown, out of
Speaker 1: social disruption already. Otherwise you're going to grow social issues.
Speaker 1: But I think we're seeing that UK. So is it
Speaker 1: going to be be for some the society is going
Speaker 1: to be okay or is it going to be an
Speaker 1: l for others or even worse. I think that's going
Speaker 1: to be much more important than what the broader GDP
Speaker 1: number is going to be. Jeff. A lot of people
Speaker 1: say that these fundamental arguments don't really matter for risk appetite,
Speaker 1: that the animal spirits will prevail regardless because you're getting
Speaker 1: penalized for putting your money in cash. The negative real
Speaker 1: yields that keep getting negative or globally and particularly in
Speaker 1: the United States. But there are two components here, right,
Speaker 1: There's the actual yield and then their inflation expectations. Do
Speaker 1: you think that the inflation expectations have gotten ahead of
Speaker 1: themselves and that the actual phenomenal yield is what's telling
Speaker 1: the right story, and that's one of slow growth and
Speaker 1: more moderate expectations ahead. I think the pace has caught
Speaker 1: many by surprise, I would, including myself. We look at
Speaker 1: the five year, five year forward break even right now
Speaker 1: it's getting back to two. You know, we haven't been
Speaker 1: here since July last year when we were thinking about
Speaker 1: additional they're easy. But in terms of levels then from
Speaker 1: central banks point of view, and nowhere there where the
Speaker 1: central banks wanted to be. They want them. They want
Speaker 1: central bank that they want economies to run hot, bea
Speaker 1: the CB, be it the FED. They want to see
Speaker 1: yields go through to twenty five. Those are the highs
Speaker 1: in two thousand seventy, two thousand and eighteen. So what
Speaker 1: are you looking for as a central banker right now?
Speaker 1: A pace or levels? I think they're going to go
Speaker 1: for levels, which means you keep things easy and that's
Speaker 1: going to help risk appetite. So how local negative yields
Speaker 1: get well? So if well, we do get to twenty
Speaker 1: five and the ten years so stays at a hundred
Speaker 1: basis points, then if you just use that, then we're
Speaker 1: looking at well below a hundred basis points in terms
Speaker 1: of negative yields. And again that's something that central bankers
Speaker 1: they want to enforce them right now. In their view,
Speaker 1: this is the only way to lift animal stops for
Speaker 1: getting investment back into the economy, to move all that
Speaker 1: cash the US British savings rates above Germany's think about
Speaker 1: that it needs to be spent extraordinary, Jeffrey like, very
Speaker 1: good insight. Jeff you mentioned pacient levels and mathematically folkus
Speaker 1: this is so, so, so important. When do you presume,
Speaker 1: given vaccination that we get to the glide path of
Speaker 1: January and February of this year, When do we see
Speaker 1: a level jump that gets us back on stream that
Speaker 1: seemed comfortable for so many of the public. I think
Speaker 1: it would be around mid year, and I might venture
Speaker 1: to say probably right after mid year rather right before.
Speaker 1: So I'm going to borrow from the u c B here.
Speaker 1: They've already shifted their language. They had a maxine being
Speaker 1: available mid year twenty one and then distribution towards the
Speaker 1: end of one that has entirely been shifted forward by
Speaker 1: six months. So that's good. That's why we've seen such
Speaker 1: a strong move since November. But the next phase is
Speaker 1: the normalization phase. Then it's going to be on individual governments,
Speaker 1: and then you're going to start to see dispersion French
Speaker 1: authorities vaccinations today so it will be different in different places.
Speaker 1: But do we have the political economic architecture to begin
Speaker 1: to reverse policies in these dire times? Do we have
Speaker 1: the ability to reverse and in some way get our
Speaker 1: policies back to normal? Short answer is no. Central banks
Speaker 1: certainly are not going to do that. Again, let's borrow
Speaker 1: from the r b A and the ECB. They've given
Speaker 1: you their time phrase, you'll kind of control in Australia
Speaker 1: three years. That's your policy time like no normalization for
Speaker 1: three years and then from the CBS point of view,
Speaker 1: investment plan fistal boasts for the next two years. That's
Speaker 1: the political world. So for the next two to three years,
Speaker 1: I think we're looking at the status square in terms
Speaker 1: of policy. That's good for risk appetite. Jeffrey, you thank
Speaker 1: you so much for all of us at Bloomberg Surveillance,
Speaker 1: including John, John uh m hm Falerio, including John Falerio. Jeffrey,
Speaker 1: you thank you so much with being why thank you
Speaker 1: Mellen for just great, great conversation through the year, perspective
Speaker 1: and wisdom is well right now my most painful interview
Speaker 1: of the year, which always will need a description. On
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio, John writing is really one of our first,
Speaker 1: first and strongest supporters of Bloomberg on the economy in
Speaker 1: Bloomberg uh surveillance and I can only say that Mr
Speaker 1: Writing wore this get up once at a bear Stern
Speaker 1: party and and Ace Greenberg threw him out of the
Speaker 1: room long ago and far away. For those of you
Speaker 1: fortunate on radio, he is decked in Santa Claus gala
Speaker 1: and an LFC Liverpool Football Club sweater. Just to let
Speaker 1: me know that the Tops took down to the big
Speaker 1: defeat uh the other day, John. The Premier League is
Speaker 1: one of the few things that seem to have run
Speaker 1: correctly in this miserable two thousand money. How did the
Speaker 1: Premier League do it? In Championship League like Preston North
Speaker 1: End and that do it and so many others in
Speaker 1: sports failed. Um, it's not entirely clear, but it was.
Speaker 1: They had a comeback plan. Uh, they had bubbles, they
Speaker 1: had frequent testing. There have been issues, uh, and apart
Speaker 1: from one or two games, there have been no crowds. Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: they're able to continue even though the entire country seems
Speaker 1: to be heading towards Tier four lockdown. UH. These sports
Speaker 1: won't be locked down, so at least we'll have something
Speaker 1: to watch on the boxing day, which is a huge
Speaker 1: soccer fixture day in the UK. I make jokes here,
Speaker 1: but there's a huge mystery to the underlying theories that
Speaker 1: have gone out the window into the mechanics of coming
Speaker 1: out of this crisis. If we get a vaccination, do
Speaker 1: you see normative, traditional macro economics out of this crisis
Speaker 1: or will it be something different? Well, we do have
Speaker 1: two vaccines, and hopefully all three of us will get
Speaker 1: those vaccinations soon and then we won't have to be
Speaker 1: remote um. And at that point, when we enough people
Speaker 1: I mean the terms heard immunity, and it's going to
Speaker 1: be vaccines into at least seventy of the arms of
Speaker 1: people in the country. Then those parts of the country
Speaker 1: that those parts of the economy in leisure and hospitality
Speaker 1: where we've got some four million job losses since February,
Speaker 1: When the when when when that business can come back
Speaker 1: we can start to think of a more normal economy.
Speaker 1: The question is how many of those businesses will remain.
Speaker 1: And so it's very important what is going on with
Speaker 1: this bizarre situation over the fiscal support package. And there
Speaker 1: is a certain person who has to decide does he
Speaker 1: want to play the grinch or does he want to
Speaker 1: play Santa uh. And if we do not get that
Speaker 1: fiscal support package, which has two hundred eighty billion dollars
Speaker 1: in for supporting small businesses, there's going to be far
Speaker 1: fewer businesses around come June, July August, when the economy
Speaker 1: should be able to get back to a more normal footing.
Speaker 1: So what happens now is very important in answering your question.
Speaker 1: And um, honestly, I have to think, like like the
Speaker 1: Brexit deal today, that the theme is we've got to
Speaker 1: go to the eleventh minute of the eleventh hour. What's
Speaker 1: not the eleventh month, it's the twelfth month now. But
Speaker 1: but but you get the point there. Well, then there's
Speaker 1: a question also of what the longer term damages, because
Speaker 1: what you're saying is somewhat contrarian. A lot of people
Speaker 1: have been shrugging off a lot of the recent weakening data,
Speaker 1: shrugging off the prospects of a prolonged d all that
Speaker 1: perhaps doesn't get struck before the money runs out on
Speaker 1: the twenty six, And you're saying it does matter. At
Speaker 1: what point should people take stock and start to downgrade
Speaker 1: their expectations for next year based on some of the
Speaker 1: weakness that we're seeing now. Um at the point we
Speaker 1: don't get a deal. If we get to that point,
Speaker 1: you need to downgrade expectations for the first half of
Speaker 1: next year because next year is going to be a
Speaker 1: year of two halfs, just like a any good soccer match,
Speaker 1: and the first half of the year is going to
Speaker 1: be one where we're still struggling with the virus. Uh.
Speaker 1: We all know the infections data. We unfortunately all know
Speaker 1: the death toll from this virus, and we need to
Speaker 1: protect ourselves to the point where that vaccine is widely available.
Speaker 1: And what was key, and we can look back in
Speaker 1: April and May time frame, what was key was the
Speaker 1: income support that the government provided. But employment needs employers
Speaker 1: and businesses will a lot of small businesses will struggle.
Speaker 1: You know. It's great. We can look at the stock market.
Speaker 1: We can see the SMP five economy that looks a
Speaker 1: pretty good economy, But more than half of people in
Speaker 1: employment are employed by small businesses that aren't listed on
Speaker 1: the stock market, that are struggled, that don't have the
Speaker 1: same access to capital markets. And that's why a renewal
Speaker 1: of the p p P program and other support for
Speaker 1: businesses is just absolutely vital to make sure that those
Speaker 1: employers are there for when employment can return for that
Speaker 1: sector of the economy. All right, John, since you're making
Speaker 1: you're making a lot of football metaphors here, and you
Speaker 1: really do want to rub the victories of Liverpool in
Speaker 1: Tom Kaine's face as much as possible. That two have
Speaker 1: of of the year sort of like a football game.
Speaker 1: So let's make an additional sort of two halves analogy
Speaker 1: here where you've got a binary outcome. Either Liverpool wins
Speaker 1: the title or it doesn't, depending on what bins during
Speaker 1: the weeks ahead. With inflation. Does that work at all? Tom,
Speaker 1: I don't know. You know, I'll see all I know,
Speaker 1: Spurs revenge January two. We'll get there. We'll get there.
Speaker 1: But in terms of inflation, I mean a lot of
Speaker 1: people are saying that it's going to remain muted next year.
Speaker 1: What's the sort of binary event that could cause the
Speaker 1: difference there? Well, I don't think inflation will remain muted
Speaker 1: in the sense that it will remain below the FEDS
Speaker 1: inflation target. Now I fully recognize including yesterday's report, the
Speaker 1: last couple of data points on consumer price inflation have
Speaker 1: been very good from the perspective of the consumer. They've
Speaker 1: been unchanged, and unchanged prices are good. Countrary to what
Speaker 1: the Fed things that it needs inflation to stimulate the economy.
Speaker 1: It doesn't low inflation enhance his people's purchasing power. But
Speaker 1: the growth rates of money that's coming from the Feds,
Speaker 1: continued purchases of a hundred and twenty billion dollars of
Speaker 1: securities per month is coming, is boosting them on their
Speaker 1: supply at a relatively unprecedented rate. And the question is
Speaker 1: does that money have velocity now. Back in two tho
Speaker 1: two nine, the fiscal deficits and the QUEUEI were largely
Speaker 1: fiscal transfers between corporate America, Financial America and the government.
Speaker 1: This is, to some considerable degree a transferred between the
Speaker 1: government and households when households spend those accumulated savings. And
Speaker 1: hopefully the next round of fiscal support that hopefully will
Speaker 1: be past, will be signed in the next few days.
Speaker 1: Hopefully that to a large degree is going to be
Speaker 1: financed by the FED printing money, and I think that
Speaker 1: that will push inflation higher. We already see it in
Speaker 1: the commodities markets. We see it in price is paid,
Speaker 1: we see it in the small business surveys. We have
Speaker 1: yet to see it in the final government price data,
Speaker 1: but that's at the end of the inflation chain. So
Speaker 1: I think the one we'll see an above two percent
Speaker 1: inflation rate. John, you've been such a clear voice on
Speaker 1: Brexit over the as Lisa mentioned earlier, Folks, five years
Speaker 1: maybe we got an agreement today, maybe we don't. What
Speaker 1: does your United Kingdom look like after Brexit one year out,
Speaker 1: two years out? Obviously the Prime Minister wants Pax Britannica,
Speaker 1: but what will it look like? Well, again, we in
Speaker 1: the short run, the question is what's it gonna look
Speaker 1: like in the next few weeks. I was watching your
Speaker 1: show earlier you mentioned Tesco. Let me give a shout
Speaker 1: out to them. They've done a fantastic job pivoting in
Speaker 1: this economy, getting my mother merry Christmas mom her groceries
Speaker 1: once every three weeks. They've done a tremendous job. But
Speaker 1: if we have those long lines of Laura's trucks as
Speaker 1: you call them, at Dover going out and at Calais
Speaker 1: coming in, we are going to have uh panic puying
Speaker 1: and we're going to have shortages. That that's in the
Speaker 1: short run. In the longer term there there simply has
Speaker 1: to be a deal. The UK is too important to
Speaker 1: trading market for the exports oriented economies of the EU
Speaker 1: not to have a trade deal with UM so I
Speaker 1: think that happens, But what what happens in the short
Speaker 1: term is much more concerning to me. If we don't
Speaker 1: get this deal. Now, you guys reported this morning here
Speaker 1: we all go very work. It's it's like earlier in
Speaker 1: the week with the STEAMUS day we have a deal,
Speaker 1: Maybe we don't have a deal. Now we're debating over
Speaker 1: different types of fish. It's like fishing chips and a
Speaker 1: trade deal today, Well maybe fishing chips in Herod's. John writing,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for your support, and also Lisa
Speaker 1: just noted there's a job opening two thousand one Christmas
Speaker 1: at Herod's for Santa I'd show up. Maybe don't show
Speaker 1: up for that Liverpool sweater as well. John writing of
Speaker 1: Breen Capital, who over the years has been just wonderful
Speaker 1: and giving us perspective on this strange economy. Thanks for
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