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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily

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Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance,

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Speaker 1: investment and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com and of course, on the Bloomberg Right now,

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Speaker 1: Joshua Hardy joins us. He is with the Confederation of

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Speaker 1: British Industry in London, their deputy Director at General. But

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Speaker 1: his he is uniquely qualified to talk about what we're

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Speaker 1: witnessing at Dover because for eight years before working with

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Speaker 1: the c IB he was with Tesco, which is a

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Speaker 1: small grocery store with headaches every day. I'm getting produced

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Speaker 1: out there. Josh Hardy, you are uniquely qualified to speak

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Speaker 1: about the position of business in England right now, a

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Speaker 1: Tier four lockdown, Tesco just trying to get things done

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Speaker 1: as it is. What do you perceived to be business

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Speaker 1: into the end of the year and into January. Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean we're all on tender hooks here in the UK.

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Speaker 1: We've been we've been waiting for four and a half

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Speaker 1: years for a Brexit deal and for clarity um and

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Speaker 1: now well we've been hours away for about twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours so we're the first thing is we are just

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Speaker 1: desperately hoping that by the end of the day we

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Speaker 1: get an announcement on that deal because that matters so

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Speaker 1: much for businesses. It is that certainty about the trading

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Speaker 1: relationship with our biggest trading partner. What will that look like,

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Speaker 1: whether you're in food, whether or you're in farmer, whether

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Speaker 1: you're in services. Absolutely critical. So let's get that deal

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Speaker 1: over the line, because it is so better than no deal.

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Speaker 1: The United Kingdom clothes that we see here, and of

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Speaker 1: course sterling is what everybody's watching. Euro Sterling is so

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Speaker 1: important to all in this great Tontal debate. But the

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Speaker 1: cable we look at as well, one six earlier and

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Speaker 1: it's ebbed away here on doubts of a press conference

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Speaker 1: and over fishing rights as well. Josh Hardy, we're fighting

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Speaker 1: for stimulus in America. Some would say it is income substitution.

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Speaker 1: Is business receiving aid from the government in the United Kingdom,

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Speaker 1: quite different from what we see in the United States. UM,

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Speaker 1: I think the principles are often the same in that

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Speaker 1: there's there's a principle that we set up here very

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Speaker 1: early with the government around COVID and the pandemic much

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Speaker 1: more than around Brexit, of course, which was we're going

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Speaker 1: to have to recover from this, and to recover you

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Speaker 1: need businesses ready to grow when the lockdown keease, and

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Speaker 1: they're going to need your help. So we've got wage

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Speaker 1: subsidy schemes here, we've got tax deferrals, we've got a

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Speaker 1: broad package of measures. But of course we've now gone

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Speaker 1: into this thing called Tier four lockdown and across the

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Speaker 1: majority of the country, which is which is a pretty

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Speaker 1: full lockdown. So we need to keep an eagle eye

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Speaker 1: business resilience stripped away through the pandemic of court everybody everywhere,

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Speaker 1: not just here, um if with it to be in

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Speaker 1: this situation for the next few months as that vaccine

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Speaker 1: is rolled out, we need to protect as many businesses

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Speaker 1: as possible, because they will what will power that recovery.

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Speaker 1: On the other side, is there a frustration Josh that fishing,

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Speaker 1: even though it accounts for such a small proportion of

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Speaker 1: the economy and the overall trade with the European Union,

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Speaker 1: has dominated talks that have made life so difficult for

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Speaker 1: the CFOs of the businesses you speak with. I mean

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Speaker 1: yes and no. Of course, did you just put an

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Speaker 1: economic lens on this UM. Fishing is not a substantial

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Speaker 1: part of the UK economy UM, and the rest of

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Speaker 1: the economy can feel like it's being held hostage by

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Speaker 1: something that is economically relatively small. But we know we've

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Speaker 1: been in this game for a long time. This is

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Speaker 1: not just about economics. This is about sovereignty UM, and

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Speaker 1: that is something that the government have to respect and

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Speaker 1: have to have to work with. So having that control

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Speaker 1: over fishing rights, being able to show that you do

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Speaker 1: have sovereignty is we understand important. But it feels like

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Speaker 1: we are we are in those final last yards. They're

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Speaker 1: always the hardest, aren't they. But it feels like a

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Speaker 1: deal can be done where that sovereignty has maintained and

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Speaker 1: where the rest of the economy can actually get benefits

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Speaker 1: and grow. So I can't say too much about it

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Speaker 1: now because there will be two thousand pages of LEI

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Speaker 1: legal texts that we get in our in our Christmas

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Speaker 1: stocking to go through. But we we hope that's there

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Speaker 1: and we hope it's over the line. Josh Hardy, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much. We see IBC this morning. We have

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Speaker 1: taken pride in our coverage of this pandemic starting in

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Speaker 1: February and March really with the leadership of the United

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Speaker 1: Kingdom medical community over to Johns Hopkins, and part of

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Speaker 1: that discussion has been Albert co of University. He is

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Speaker 1: expert in the diseases across this world that involved bacteria

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Speaker 1: and virology. He's also expert in understanding the need for vaccine.

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Speaker 1: He will have the courage to be vaccinated, I believe

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Speaker 1: on Monday. Albert Co. You know that Yale University ages ago,

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Speaker 1: beginning in eighteen ninety seven and out of nine invented

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Speaker 1: the syringe with the Beckton and Dickinson company. We take

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Speaker 1: it for granted. Today tell us the medical evolution of

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Speaker 1: getting that shot and why we should not be afraid today.

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Speaker 1: All right, Tom, Well, thank you very much for having

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Speaker 1: me back on. It's the stories of pleasure. So with

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Speaker 1: respect to the medical evolution, you know, we have a

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Speaker 1: hundred years or more of experiences vaccines and if you

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Speaker 1: if we think of of one medical success story that

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Speaker 1: that really changed our lives, it's been vaccinations in terms

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Speaker 1: of prolonging life expectancy, decreasing childhood mortality. And now we

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Speaker 1: come to COVID and you know there were the amazing

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Speaker 1: work that has been done, the progress in you know,

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Speaker 1: less than a year, we have a vaccine where you know,

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Speaker 1: current clinical trials have you know, exhaustive studies have shown

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Speaker 1: that it's a safe and effective vaccine. And I think

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Speaker 1: that's a message that we really need to get out

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Speaker 1: to everyone. It's on everyone's mind, whether you know this

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Speaker 1: is we're in a pandemic that has been developed quickly.

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Speaker 1: Is a vaccine safe and effective? And all the evidence

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Speaker 1: we have, you know, UH points to a really another

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Speaker 1: major medical success story in to make what is the

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Speaker 1: most efficacious way to line up the ducks to get

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Speaker 1: this done? How do we get millions of people most

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Speaker 1: efficiently to get the vaccine. Yeah, So the first you know,

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Speaker 1: the first step, you know, which was a tremendous amount

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Speaker 1: of work, was to do all the research and development

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Speaker 1: to get a vaccine. The hard work is now coming on.

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Speaker 1: We have to now get um you know, raunches or

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Speaker 1: swabs of populations vaccinated. And I think there's a couple

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Speaker 1: of issues that are really important to UH to emphasize.

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Speaker 1: The first is that we have to certainly protect our

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Speaker 1: healthcare workers, essential workers, those that most risk for the

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Speaker 1: disease we have to take care of the population here

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Speaker 1: in the United States, and we're gonna have to vaccinate

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Speaker 1: up to eight percent or more of the population so

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Speaker 1: we can get back to normal or some semblance to normality.

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Speaker 1: But the biggest issue is that we're going to have

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Speaker 1: to protect the whole world. This is not just an

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Speaker 1: American problems, not just the European problems. This is the

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Speaker 1: problem that affecting the livelihoods of all people in the

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Speaker 1: world at seven point eight billion people, And we're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to think about the long run and how we're

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Speaker 1: going to protect the populations across the world. In the

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Speaker 1: medium run, as we unroll the vaccine into the general population,

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Speaker 1: people keep getting the virus. We now have a total

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Speaker 1: death count in access of three d and twenty thousand

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Speaker 1: all right in the United States. We have a case

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Speaker 1: count that is climbing every single day, and there is

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Speaker 1: a question of what we can do to prevent death.

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Speaker 1: How good have some of the remedies been. Has the

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Speaker 1: therapeutics been to deal with the virus once people get

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Speaker 1: it and get very sick from it. So so I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Lisa, really the important issues that we're

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Speaker 1: going to have to use you know, what we know

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Speaker 1: is tried and true and work for the public health

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Speaker 1: prevention in order to get ourselves into that phase where

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Speaker 1: the vaccinine starts kicking in and decreases transmission. We do

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Speaker 1: have improved, We've learned a lot in the last year

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Speaker 1: about how to treat patients. We have, you know, therapies

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Speaker 1: and mortalities such as steroids which decreases the risk of mortality.

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Speaker 1: These to reduce the risk of mentality. So we don't

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Speaker 1: have any game changers or home runs on the forefront

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Speaker 1: of therapeutics at this point, and so we're going to

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Speaker 1: have to rely on public health, you know, sound public

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Speaker 1: health prevention to get over over this period. And we're

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Speaker 1: going to have there's going to be a difficult next

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Speaker 1: several months during these winter months as the surge is

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Speaker 1: occurring not only you know, across the United States, but

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Speaker 1: in many parts of the world. Can we get to

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Speaker 1: her immunity if we can't get kids vaccinated, because from

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Speaker 1: my understanding, they won't be able to get vaccinated likely

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Speaker 1: until potentially late next year at the outset, based on

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Speaker 1: the studies currently out there. Yeah, so, as you know,

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Speaker 1: since the beginning where there's just been debate about her

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Speaker 1: immunity and whether natural infection and we can get you know,

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Speaker 1: enough people you know infected that there get they become

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Speaker 1: immune due to natural and faction, and that would protect

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Speaker 1: the rest of the population. You know, I worked in

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Speaker 1: Brazil for twenty five years. One of the cities in Brazil,

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Speaker 1: city of Monoits, which is hit the hardest. You know,

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Speaker 1: I had an epidemic that affected seventy of the population.

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Speaker 1: So if we're thinking about her immunity, those are the

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Speaker 1: levels of people who are going to be affected to

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Speaker 1: reach herd immunity. And that's that's a that's a rica,

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Speaker 1: that's a disaster that we just can't can't accept. That

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Speaker 1: also provides us a benchmark of how much how many

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Speaker 1: people we need to vaccinate. We're going to have to

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Speaker 1: vaccinate over seventy's my own, my own judgment at this moment,

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Speaker 1: and we're learning more. We have to be humble and

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Speaker 1: we're learning more each time, but we're gonna have to

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Speaker 1: vaccinate large numbers are population to protect to get to

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Speaker 1: that magic herd immunity threshold. Dr co thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for being with us. Best of luck when you

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Speaker 1: go get your vaccine. Are you worried? Are you excited

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Speaker 1: for it? I'm not worried, and I'm excited and uh

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Speaker 1: and I think we're really, you know, entering a new

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Speaker 1: phase of how we're going to be able to deal

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Speaker 1: with this vaccine now, and I'm just proud to be

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Speaker 1: part of that. Albert Cole, thank you so much, greatly,

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Speaker 1: greatly appreciate it. With a Yale School of Medicine, let

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Speaker 1: us get here to an important conversation, jeff For you

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Speaker 1: synthesizes what we see in economics and markets in a

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Speaker 1: wonderful and delicate way. He's with B and Y. Melon

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Speaker 1: to say he's their senior strategist doesn't give justice to

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Speaker 1: what he grasped here. Of the dynamics as well, Jeffrey,

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Speaker 1: you are disconced in tier four, Tier five, Tier six,

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Speaker 1: somewhere in the vicinity of the microcosm of trucks stacked

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Speaker 1: top in Southern England as well. Sometimes our macro economics

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Speaker 1: are overcome by micro events. Tell us about the micro

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Speaker 1: event of business investment and animal spirit in the next year,

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Speaker 1: um next year, in one word, vaccine vaccinations. If that works,

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Speaker 1: If the Biden administration can bring through a hundred million

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Speaker 1: doses and a hundred days or out the form that

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Speaker 1: be that Tony blads walking about giving additional dosage or

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Speaker 1: ready to speed up the process if that works, and

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Speaker 1: more spirits are going to let that. I've heard people

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Speaker 1: talking into the roaring twenties again, are we going to

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Speaker 1: have thees? So that's what people are hoping for, But

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Speaker 1: so far government competence globally, I think still caution is needed. Jeff,

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Speaker 1: you you were weaned on the ose. The history of

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Speaker 1: the linkage of history and all of this from Lionel

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Speaker 1: Robbins and of course the great Magna Decide among others,

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Speaker 1: is well within this historical moment and all that we

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Speaker 1: mumber babble about each and every day. Do you have

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Speaker 1: an optimism that we get back to normality after the vaccine?

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Speaker 1: Is it not V shaped, but is it literally stochastic

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Speaker 1: where we explode back to a normal economy. It will

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Speaker 1: be V shaped for some, it may not be the

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Speaker 1: shape for others, and that again is going to be

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Speaker 1: the policy challenge for some time. Remember a few months

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Speaker 1: ago when we first talked about this. There will be

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Speaker 1: winners and losers out of the recovery, and then governments

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Speaker 1: will need to grapple with how do you ensure that

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Speaker 1: the district ution is not too much concentrated within those

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Speaker 1: who've done relatively okay out of the lockdown, out of

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Speaker 1: social disruption already. Otherwise you're going to grow social issues.

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Speaker 1: But I think we're seeing that UK. So is it

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Speaker 1: going to be be for some the society is going

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Speaker 1: to be okay or is it going to be an

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Speaker 1: l for others or even worse. I think that's going

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Speaker 1: to be much more important than what the broader GDP

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Speaker 1: number is going to be. Jeff. A lot of people

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Speaker 1: say that these fundamental arguments don't really matter for risk appetite,

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Speaker 1: that the animal spirits will prevail regardless because you're getting

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Speaker 1: penalized for putting your money in cash. The negative real

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Speaker 1: yields that keep getting negative or globally and particularly in

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Speaker 1: the United States. But there are two components here, right,

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Speaker 1: There's the actual yield and then their inflation expectations. Do

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Speaker 1: you think that the inflation expectations have gotten ahead of

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Speaker 1: themselves and that the actual phenomenal yield is what's telling

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Speaker 1: the right story, and that's one of slow growth and

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Speaker 1: more moderate expectations ahead. I think the pace has caught

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Speaker 1: many by surprise, I would, including myself. We look at

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Speaker 1: the five year, five year forward break even right now

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Speaker 1: it's getting back to two. You know, we haven't been

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Speaker 1: here since July last year when we were thinking about

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Speaker 1: additional they're easy. But in terms of levels then from

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Speaker 1: central banks point of view, and nowhere there where the

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Speaker 1: central banks wanted to be. They want them. They want

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Speaker 1: central bank that they want economies to run hot, bea

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Speaker 1: the CB, be it the FED. They want to see

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Speaker 1: yields go through to twenty five. Those are the highs

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Speaker 1: in two thousand seventy, two thousand and eighteen. So what

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Speaker 1: are you looking for as a central banker right now?

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Speaker 1: A pace or levels? I think they're going to go

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Speaker 1: for levels, which means you keep things easy and that's

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Speaker 1: going to help risk appetite. So how local negative yields

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Speaker 1: get well? So if well, we do get to twenty

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Speaker 1: five and the ten years so stays at a hundred

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Speaker 1: basis points, then if you just use that, then we're

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Speaker 1: looking at well below a hundred basis points in terms

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Speaker 1: of negative yields. And again that's something that central bankers

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Speaker 1: they want to enforce them right now. In their view,

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Speaker 1: this is the only way to lift animal stops for

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Speaker 1: getting investment back into the economy, to move all that

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Speaker 1: cash the US British savings rates above Germany's think about

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Speaker 1: that it needs to be spent extraordinary, Jeffrey like, very

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Speaker 1: good insight. Jeff you mentioned pacient levels and mathematically folkus

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Speaker 1: this is so, so, so important. When do you presume,

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Speaker 1: given vaccination that we get to the glide path of

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Speaker 1: January and February of this year, When do we see

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Speaker 1: a level jump that gets us back on stream that

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Speaker 1: seemed comfortable for so many of the public. I think

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Speaker 1: it would be around mid year, and I might venture

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Speaker 1: to say probably right after mid year rather right before.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to borrow from the u c B here.

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Speaker 1: They've already shifted their language. They had a maxine being

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Speaker 1: available mid year twenty one and then distribution towards the

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Speaker 1: end of one that has entirely been shifted forward by

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Speaker 1: six months. So that's good. That's why we've seen such

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Speaker 1: a strong move since November. But the next phase is

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Speaker 1: the normalization phase. Then it's going to be on individual governments,

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Speaker 1: and then you're going to start to see dispersion French

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Speaker 1: authorities vaccinations today so it will be different in different places.

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Speaker 1: But do we have the political economic architecture to begin

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Speaker 1: to reverse policies in these dire times? Do we have

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Speaker 1: the ability to reverse and in some way get our

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Speaker 1: policies back to normal? Short answer is no. Central banks

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Speaker 1: certainly are not going to do that. Again, let's borrow

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Speaker 1: from the r b A and the ECB. They've given

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Speaker 1: you their time phrase, you'll kind of control in Australia

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Speaker 1: three years. That's your policy time like no normalization for

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Speaker 1: three years and then from the CBS point of view,

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Speaker 1: investment plan fistal boasts for the next two years. That's

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Speaker 1: the political world. So for the next two to three years,

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Speaker 1: I think we're looking at the status square in terms

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Speaker 1: of policy. That's good for risk appetite. Jeffrey, you thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for all of us at Bloomberg Surveillance,

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Speaker 1: including John, John uh m hm Falerio, including John Falerio. Jeffrey,

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Speaker 1: you thank you so much with being why thank you

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Speaker 1: Mellen for just great, great conversation through the year, perspective

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Speaker 1: and wisdom is well right now my most painful interview

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Speaker 1: of the year, which always will need a description. On

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio, John writing is really one of our first,

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Speaker 1: first and strongest supporters of Bloomberg on the economy in

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg uh surveillance and I can only say that Mr

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Speaker 1: Writing wore this get up once at a bear Stern

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Speaker 1: party and and Ace Greenberg threw him out of the

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Speaker 1: room long ago and far away. For those of you

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Speaker 1: fortunate on radio, he is decked in Santa Claus gala

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Speaker 1: and an LFC Liverpool Football Club sweater. Just to let

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Speaker 1: me know that the Tops took down to the big

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Speaker 1: defeat uh the other day, John. The Premier League is

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Speaker 1: one of the few things that seem to have run

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Speaker 1: correctly in this miserable two thousand money. How did the

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Speaker 1: Premier League do it? In Championship League like Preston North

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Speaker 1: End and that do it and so many others in

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Speaker 1: sports failed. Um, it's not entirely clear, but it was.

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Speaker 1: They had a comeback plan. Uh, they had bubbles, they

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Speaker 1: had frequent testing. There have been issues, uh, and apart

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Speaker 1: from one or two games, there have been no crowds. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: they're able to continue even though the entire country seems

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Speaker 1: to be heading towards Tier four lockdown. UH. These sports

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Speaker 1: won't be locked down, so at least we'll have something

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Speaker 1: to watch on the boxing day, which is a huge

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Speaker 1: soccer fixture day in the UK. I make jokes here,

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Speaker 1: but there's a huge mystery to the underlying theories that

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Speaker 1: have gone out the window into the mechanics of coming

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Speaker 1: out of this crisis. If we get a vaccination, do

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Speaker 1: you see normative, traditional macro economics out of this crisis

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Speaker 1: or will it be something different? Well, we do have

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Speaker 1: two vaccines, and hopefully all three of us will get

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Speaker 1: those vaccinations soon and then we won't have to be

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Speaker 1: remote um. And at that point, when we enough people

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Speaker 1: I mean the terms heard immunity, and it's going to

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Speaker 1: be vaccines into at least seventy of the arms of

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Speaker 1: people in the country. Then those parts of the country

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Speaker 1: that those parts of the economy in leisure and hospitality

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Speaker 1: where we've got some four million job losses since February,

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Speaker 1: When the when when when that business can come back

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Speaker 1: we can start to think of a more normal economy.

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Speaker 1: The question is how many of those businesses will remain.

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Speaker 1: And so it's very important what is going on with

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Speaker 1: this bizarre situation over the fiscal support package. And there

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Speaker 1: is a certain person who has to decide does he

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Speaker 1: want to play the grinch or does he want to

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Speaker 1: play Santa uh. And if we do not get that

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Speaker 1: fiscal support package, which has two hundred eighty billion dollars

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Speaker 1: in for supporting small businesses, there's going to be far

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Speaker 1: fewer businesses around come June, July August, when the economy

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Speaker 1: should be able to get back to a more normal footing.

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Speaker 1: So what happens now is very important in answering your question.

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Speaker 1: And um, honestly, I have to think, like like the

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Speaker 1: Brexit deal today, that the theme is we've got to

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Speaker 1: go to the eleventh minute of the eleventh hour. What's

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Speaker 1: not the eleventh month, it's the twelfth month now. But

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Speaker 1: but but you get the point there. Well, then there's

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Speaker 1: a question also of what the longer term damages, because

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Speaker 1: what you're saying is somewhat contrarian. A lot of people

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Speaker 1: have been shrugging off a lot of the recent weakening data,

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Speaker 1: shrugging off the prospects of a prolonged d all that

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Speaker 1: perhaps doesn't get struck before the money runs out on

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Speaker 1: the twenty six, And you're saying it does matter. At

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Speaker 1: what point should people take stock and start to downgrade

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Speaker 1: their expectations for next year based on some of the

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Speaker 1: weakness that we're seeing now. Um at the point we

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Speaker 1: don't get a deal. If we get to that point,

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Speaker 1: you need to downgrade expectations for the first half of

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Speaker 1: next year because next year is going to be a

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Speaker 1: year of two halfs, just like a any good soccer match,

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Speaker 1: and the first half of the year is going to

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Speaker 1: be one where we're still struggling with the virus. Uh.

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Speaker 1: We all know the infections data. We unfortunately all know

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Speaker 1: the death toll from this virus, and we need to

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Speaker 1: protect ourselves to the point where that vaccine is widely available.

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Speaker 1: And what was key, and we can look back in

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Speaker 1: April and May time frame, what was key was the

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Speaker 1: income support that the government provided. But employment needs employers

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Speaker 1: and businesses will a lot of small businesses will struggle.

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Speaker 1: You know. It's great. We can look at the stock market.

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Speaker 1: We can see the SMP five economy that looks a

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Speaker 1: pretty good economy, But more than half of people in

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Speaker 1: employment are employed by small businesses that aren't listed on

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Speaker 1: the stock market, that are struggled, that don't have the

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Speaker 1: same access to capital markets. And that's why a renewal

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Speaker 1: of the p p P program and other support for

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Speaker 1: businesses is just absolutely vital to make sure that those

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Speaker 1: employers are there for when employment can return for that

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Speaker 1: sector of the economy. All right, John, since you're making

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Speaker 1: you're making a lot of football metaphors here, and you

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Speaker 1: really do want to rub the victories of Liverpool in

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Speaker 1: Tom Kaine's face as much as possible. That two have

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Speaker 1: of of the year sort of like a football game.

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Speaker 1: So let's make an additional sort of two halves analogy

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Speaker 1: here where you've got a binary outcome. Either Liverpool wins

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Speaker 1: the title or it doesn't, depending on what bins during

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Speaker 1: the weeks ahead. With inflation. Does that work at all? Tom,

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Speaker 1: I don't know. You know, I'll see all I know,

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Speaker 1: Spurs revenge January two. We'll get there. We'll get there.

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Speaker 1: But in terms of inflation, I mean a lot of

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Speaker 1: people are saying that it's going to remain muted next year.

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Speaker 1: What's the sort of binary event that could cause the

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Speaker 1: difference there? Well, I don't think inflation will remain muted

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Speaker 1: in the sense that it will remain below the FEDS

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Speaker 1: inflation target. Now I fully recognize including yesterday's report, the

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Speaker 1: last couple of data points on consumer price inflation have

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Speaker 1: been very good from the perspective of the consumer. They've

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Speaker 1: been unchanged, and unchanged prices are good. Countrary to what

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Speaker 1: the Fed things that it needs inflation to stimulate the economy.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't low inflation enhance his people's purchasing power. But

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Speaker 1: the growth rates of money that's coming from the Feds,

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Speaker 1: continued purchases of a hundred and twenty billion dollars of

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Speaker 1: securities per month is coming, is boosting them on their

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Speaker 1: supply at a relatively unprecedented rate. And the question is

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Speaker 1: does that money have velocity now. Back in two tho

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Speaker 1: two nine, the fiscal deficits and the QUEUEI were largely

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Speaker 1: fiscal transfers between corporate America, Financial America and the government.

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Speaker 1: This is, to some considerable degree a transferred between the

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Speaker 1: government and households when households spend those accumulated savings. And

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Speaker 1: hopefully the next round of fiscal support that hopefully will

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Speaker 1: be past, will be signed in the next few days.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully that to a large degree is going to be

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Speaker 1: financed by the FED printing money, and I think that

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Speaker 1: that will push inflation higher. We already see it in

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Speaker 1: the commodities markets. We see it in price is paid,

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Speaker 1: we see it in the small business surveys. We have

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Speaker 1: yet to see it in the final government price data,

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Speaker 1: but that's at the end of the inflation chain. So

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Speaker 1: I think the one we'll see an above two percent

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Speaker 1: inflation rate. John, you've been such a clear voice on

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Speaker 1: Brexit over the as Lisa mentioned earlier, Folks, five years

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Speaker 1: maybe we got an agreement today, maybe we don't. What

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Speaker 1: does your United Kingdom look like after Brexit one year out,

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Speaker 1: two years out? Obviously the Prime Minister wants Pax Britannica,

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Speaker 1: but what will it look like? Well, again, we in

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Speaker 1: the short run, the question is what's it gonna look

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Speaker 1: like in the next few weeks. I was watching your

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Speaker 1: show earlier you mentioned Tesco. Let me give a shout

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Speaker 1: out to them. They've done a fantastic job pivoting in

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Speaker 1: this economy, getting my mother merry Christmas mom her groceries

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Speaker 1: once every three weeks. They've done a tremendous job. But

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Speaker 1: if we have those long lines of Laura's trucks as

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Speaker 1: you call them, at Dover going out and at Calais

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Speaker 1: coming in, we are going to have uh panic puying

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Speaker 1: and we're going to have shortages. That that's in the

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Speaker 1: short run. In the longer term there there simply has

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Speaker 1: to be a deal. The UK is too important to

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Speaker 1: trading market for the exports oriented economies of the EU

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Speaker 1: not to have a trade deal with UM so I

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Speaker 1: think that happens, But what what happens in the short

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Speaker 1: term is much more concerning to me. If we don't

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Speaker 1: get this deal. Now, you guys reported this morning here

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Speaker 1: we all go very work. It's it's like earlier in

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Speaker 1: the week with the STEAMUS day we have a deal,

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Speaker 1: Maybe we don't have a deal. Now we're debating over

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Speaker 1: different types of fish. It's like fishing chips and a

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Speaker 1: trade deal today, Well maybe fishing chips in Herod's. John writing,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for your support, and also Lisa

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Speaker 1: just noted there's a job opening two thousand one Christmas

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Speaker 1: at Herod's for Santa I'd show up. Maybe don't show

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Speaker 1: up for that Liverpool sweater as well. John writing of

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Speaker 1: Breen Capital, who over the years has been just wonderful

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Speaker 1: and giving us perspective on this strange economy. Thanks for

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Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to

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Speaker 1: interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer.

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Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You

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Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio