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Speaker 1: And welcome to Lake Kick Is Live. It is Tuesday night,

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Speaker 1: November twenty third, the year of Our Lord, twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 1: our last show before Thanksgiving. So if I don't tell

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Speaker 1: you between now and then, Happy Thanksgiving. We're jam packed.

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Speaker 1: We're high at top downtown Nashville, Tennessee. You know, if

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Speaker 1: you hadn't tracked a plane this week, do you really

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Speaker 1: love this sport? I mean, are you really fully invested

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Speaker 1: with your heart and your soul if you haven't tracked

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Speaker 1: a random plane number owned by the University of Florida

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Speaker 1: Louisiana State University. It's a fun time of year, and

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Speaker 1: unfortunately those universities a while back found a way to

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Speaker 1: take those off the public tracker record list. But there

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Speaker 1: are still ways around that. If you don't know what

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Speaker 1: I'm talking about, you will before the show is over.

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Speaker 1: The very latest on all of the coaching whispers and

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Speaker 1: intelling who's going where and who's staying put even some

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Speaker 1: news on that front. Today, of course, we're about to

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Speaker 1: react to the playoff rankings. Producer Jesse and director Colin

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Speaker 1: have feverishly been putting the final touches on some graphics

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Speaker 1: for us, kind of like a Tuesday and Thursday show

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Speaker 1: combined for us tonight, because we're gonna do rankings reaction,

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Speaker 1: but we're also going to do final predictions for games.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna do Marquee games tonight. We're gonna hit the

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Speaker 1: Iron Bowl. Of course, we're gonna hit the game Michigan,

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Speaker 1: Ohio State the game. We will be on the sideline

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Speaker 1: for this Saturday. And I've got several thoughts on all

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Speaker 1: of that. Not to mention, we're adding one, two, three, four, five,

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Speaker 1: six more best bets on the Rama Noodle Express. By

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Speaker 1: the end of this show, you will have eleven total.

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Speaker 1: I think one of them is going on right now,

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Speaker 1: so you'll have ten that you could actually bet total.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot going on, so don't miss these shows.

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Speaker 1: I want to thank you before we start tonight, and

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Speaker 1: then I want to give you a bit of bad

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Speaker 1: news before we start tonight. First the good news. The

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Speaker 1: good news is this is number two oh eight, right,

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Speaker 1: so Late Kick Live number two oh seven was our

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Speaker 1: highest viewed show ever, both in terms of live concurrent

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Speaker 1: viewers replay views. We had an average viewership of over

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Speaker 1: twenty three and a half minutes in length, which is

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Speaker 1: two times the insanity that normally a record would be.

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Speaker 1: So thank you so much for all that everybody noticed.

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Speaker 1: So thank you for that. Some very very bad news,

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Speaker 1: heartbreaking news out of Tuscaloosa earlier. Cecil Hurt, who has

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Speaker 1: covered Alabama since I've been alive, passed away earlier today.

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Speaker 1: He had complications with pneumonia. He's been battling that for

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Speaker 1: quite a while, and so he passed away today. Never

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Speaker 1: went to an Alabama game that I didn't see him at,

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Speaker 1: and I've been blessed to be at a lot of them,

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Speaker 1: especially in the latter portion as it turned out, of

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Speaker 1: his career, in his life. So man, it was an

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Speaker 1: honor to always see him, because that's a voice that

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Speaker 1: those of us who grew up in the South grew

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Speaker 1: up knowing, and it's a voice that we knew through

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Speaker 1: the written word, even if you didn't get to see

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Speaker 1: him in person like I did. I read him long

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Speaker 1: before I ever saw him in person. So Cecil Hurt

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Speaker 1: very impactful to a lot of us down here. He's

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Speaker 1: one of those folks who probably could have gone elsewhere,

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Speaker 1: could have done other things, but stayed on that same

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Speaker 1: beat that Alabama beat. And he was an institution on

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Speaker 1: that beat because of that, So rest in peace, Cecil hurt,

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Speaker 1: prayers and thoughts with his family and loved ones tonight

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Speaker 1: a very very tough time for a lot of folks

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Speaker 1: around that program and obviously his family and friends. There's

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Speaker 1: no easy way to transition, so we'll just hard transition

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Speaker 1: out of that big Tuesday night here playoff rankings just released.

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Speaker 1: As I always say, the paper is still hot. It

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Speaker 1: just came out of the printer, even though all this

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Speaker 1: looks hand drawn. So let's recap this for those of

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Speaker 1: you who did not choose to tune in and you

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Speaker 1: just want to get the information here first. Thank you

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Speaker 1: so much. George's number one. I don't think we need

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Speaker 1: to waste much time with that. Ohio State did jump Alabama,

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Speaker 1: which we expected, so their number two. Bama's three. There

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Speaker 1: sits the Cincinnati Bearcats at number four. We obviously are

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Speaker 1: going to talk a lot of Cincinnati over the next

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Speaker 1: five minutes. Michigan is five, Notre Dame sitting there at six.

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Speaker 1: I got some thoughts on Notre Dame as I have

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Speaker 1: for about the past month, and then we've got the

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Speaker 1: big twelve. Essentially, we got Oklahoma State seven, Baylor eight.

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Speaker 1: We got all miss sit in there at nine, and

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Speaker 1: then Oklahoma is number ten. I want to take you

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Speaker 1: back to the preseason when we did a segment Colin.

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Speaker 1: We did several segments by my recollection about Cincinnati, and

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Speaker 1: we took some heat. Can you believe that some people

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Speaker 1: criticized us. It's always us when we get criticized, it's

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Speaker 1: me when we get praised. It's the opposite of the

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Speaker 1: way leadership is supposed to work. I'm told, I kid,

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Speaker 1: But seriously, we did take a lot of heat because

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Speaker 1: we said, for the first time ever, regardless of what

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Speaker 1: our personal opinion is. I'll get to my personal opinion

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Speaker 1: in a second. We believed on this program, if Cincinnati

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Speaker 1: went undefeated, there was going to be a spot for

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Speaker 1: him in the playoff. We did not believe in the

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Speaker 1: conspiracy that the committee had always met behind closed doors

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Speaker 1: and brushed past the cigar smoking their faces to look

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Speaker 1: at a grease board and say, how are we going

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Speaker 1: to keep that G five team out this year. It's

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Speaker 1: not like that they haven't deserved to be in the

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Speaker 1: G five teams have not deserved spot. We have believed

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Speaker 1: that team was going to buy the own metrics and

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Speaker 1: data listed by the Committee deserved to be in Okay,

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Speaker 1: I've stood by that opinion all year. That has not changed.

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Speaker 1: As of this night, that has not changed. That has

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Speaker 1: been my feel on how the Committee will handle Cincinnati. Now,

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Speaker 1: in a couple of minutes, I'm going to give you

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Speaker 1: my personal opinion, and it's going to sound really murky.

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Speaker 1: It's going to sound really hypocritical, but it's not. There's

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Speaker 1: the committee over there and I'm telling you what I

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Speaker 1: think they'll do, and then there's me over here Committee

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Speaker 1: of one and what I would do. But that's not

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Speaker 1: where I want to start. Have you looked at Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame lately? I think you have because I look at

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Speaker 1: my inbox and a lot of you were talking about

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Speaker 1: the Irish. There is what we are going to end

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Speaker 1: up calling on this show, the looming Notre Dame conundrum.

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Speaker 1: And I try and work conundrum in at least once

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Speaker 1: a week. I often fail, But here we go. The

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame conundrum that looms is for the first time ever,

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Speaker 1: I think this program is going to cost itself a

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Speaker 1: show in the College Football Playoff because it is not

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Speaker 1: in a conference. It's never happened before. It's always been rumored,

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Speaker 1: it's been fabled, it's been something that you say, oh,

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Speaker 1: one day, one of these days, you know, Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: not being in a conference is going to bite them.

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Speaker 1: This is probably your day, This is probably your year.

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Speaker 1: And I have maintained for a long time, did I

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Speaker 1: do not think anyone in South Bend, Indiana cares about

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Speaker 1: your opinion on whether Notre Dame should be in a

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Speaker 1: conference or not. They don't care about mine, yours, They

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Speaker 1: don't care about any conference commissioner's opinion. The only thing

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Speaker 1: that was ever going to possibly entice the fighting Irish

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Speaker 1: if Notre Dame to join a conference is if it

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Speaker 1: really bites them in terms of wallet and in terms

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Speaker 1: of postseason inclusion, and it could do both this year. Now.

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame is not going to hurt for money, but

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Speaker 1: it will hurt them. Make no mistake. If they're sitting

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Speaker 1: there eleven and one and they are watching conference champs

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Speaker 1: go to a playoff that they know good and well

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Speaker 1: they would be in had they locked down an ACC championship,

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Speaker 1: and I would feel very good for the record about

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame winning the ACC if they resided in that

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Speaker 1: conference this year. I mean we're talking right now, as

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Speaker 1: far as I can tell about potential scenarios that include

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati versus Notre Dame. This is once we get to

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Speaker 1: the end of the year. There is no debate here.

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Speaker 1: If Cincinnati is a thirteen to no conference champ they're

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Speaker 1: in over Notre Dame. If there's one spot left for

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Speaker 1: both of them, that's done. Notre Dame an eleven and

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Speaker 1: one Notre Dame no conference championship against a twelve and

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Speaker 1: one Oklahoma State, there's no debate. They're in. I don't

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Speaker 1: think Notre Dame gets in over a ten and two

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Speaker 1: non conference champ in Bama if they're competitive against Georgia,

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Speaker 1: so all that would be rectified, at least enough of

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Speaker 1: it would be rectified. If they had a conference championship.

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Speaker 1: They're not going to have one, and therefore you could

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Speaker 1: very well see Notre Dame on the outside looking in

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Speaker 1: for the first time ever because of that point and

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Speaker 1: that point alone, now they could still have some chaos

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Speaker 1: break their way, obviously and still make it in. Those

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Speaker 1: are some of the disaster scenarios that we've talked about,

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Speaker 1: and we'll talk about more. So. I've been having arguments

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Speaker 1: back and forth with several folks today about what ended

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Speaker 1: up being talked about at length on television. I would

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Speaker 1: imagine tonight, and that is this path where we see

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Speaker 1: a twelve and one Big twelve champion Oklahoma State and

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati at thirteen and oh as a conference champion the AAC,

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Speaker 1: and they're fighting over one spot. This could happen. It

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Speaker 1: actually could come down to this. Obviously, the way this

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Speaker 1: would happen is something along the lines of Georgia wins

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Speaker 1: out there in Ohio State or Michigan went out their in,

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Speaker 1: so you got two spots there, and then whatever happens

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Speaker 1: to that number three spot in that number four spot.

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Speaker 1: There are several different ways that could break, but there

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Speaker 1: are scenarios where you have an either or. You have

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Speaker 1: either Cincinnati makes it in or you have Oklahoma State

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Speaker 1: make it in. But the way that people are really

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Speaker 1: looking at it is if Bama beach Georgia, If Bama

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Speaker 1: beach Georgia, both of them are going to the playoff,

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Speaker 1: and then if you got that Big ten champion there,

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Speaker 1: three of your spots are already taken up, and that's

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Speaker 1: where the either or comes into play, and it's either

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Speaker 1: a thirteen and no Cincinnati or a twelve to one

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Speaker 1: Big twelve champ Oklahoma State. Look, I know I led

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Speaker 1: this by telling you, as I have all year, I

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Speaker 1: think they're going to put Cincinnati in this thing if

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Speaker 1: they're undefeated. And I'm going to reiterate my personal opinion

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Speaker 1: on what the committee will do is I think they're

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Speaker 1: gonna put him in. That's what I think they'd do.

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Speaker 1: Now I'm gonna tell you what the Committee of one

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Speaker 1: would do. This would take me about two milliseconds. I

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Speaker 1: would stamp Oklahoma State in. There would not be a

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Speaker 1: moment's hesitation in my mind because I would revert right

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Speaker 1: back to the same thinking I've always had. You are

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Speaker 1: not about to sit there as an Oklahoma State Cowboy

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Speaker 1: team and be to what the number ten team this

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Speaker 1: week theoretically, and then the number eight team and Baylor

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Speaker 1: maybe next week in the conference championship game, and still

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Speaker 1: not rise above a G five Conference champ and a

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Speaker 1: Jeefkaive Conference champ whose strength of schedule is in the

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Speaker 1: one hundreds because their own conference let them down this year.

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Speaker 1: So I was texting back and forth with our buddy Daniel,

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Speaker 1: part of the College Football Nerds Channel, because he's on

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Speaker 1: the other side this he believed Cincinnati should be in.

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Speaker 1: And so I was given him my thoughts and he

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Speaker 1: was giving me his point of view. He said, well,

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Speaker 1: let me hit you with a little counter there. He said,

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Speaker 1: the parts of Oklahoma State's schedule that they could control,

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Speaker 1: they scheduled week out of conference competition. The parts of

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati's schedule that they could control, they went and dialed

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Speaker 1: up Indiana power five team really good last year, Notre Dame,

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Speaker 1: and went on the road for both of them and

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Speaker 1: beat them. I acknowledge that that's baked into my opinion.

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Speaker 1: That's the reason I've taken Cincinnati sirius all year. So

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Speaker 1: please don't think I'm discounting that. Even having said all that,

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you, if I've got a Power five conference

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Speaker 1: champ and not a week Power five conference, this is

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Speaker 1: not the Pac twelve or the ACC the Big twelve.

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Speaker 1: You're looking, or you have looked momentary or just a

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Speaker 1: few moments ago, at the top ten. The Big twelve

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Speaker 1: has three of the top ten right now. This is

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Speaker 1: not a week conference. And so if you're winning that

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Speaker 1: conference and at the very end you're beating two top

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Speaker 1: teams in order to achieve that, Yeah, you're going to

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Speaker 1: my playoff. I happen to think I'm wrong on how

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Speaker 1: the Committee's going to handle it, so we'll see. Probably

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Speaker 1: also has a lot to do with how Cincinnati disposes

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Speaker 1: of East Carolina and Houston, if in fact they do

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Speaker 1: win both of those games. There are still several disaster

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Speaker 1: scenarios in play, or maybe they're not a disaster to you,

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Speaker 1: maybe you're rooting for these things to happen. You've still

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Speaker 1: got the Big Ten bumper car potentially in play, and

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Speaker 1: that would include Wisconsin having to pull an upset in

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Speaker 1: the Big Ten title game, and it would simply look

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Speaker 1: like this, don't care who wins Saturday, We're going to

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Speaker 1: go to ann Arbor Saturday. We're gonna watch Ohio State

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Speaker 1: play in Michigan. Whom stever comes out of that game

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Speaker 1: as the winner. If they go to Indianapolis and they

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Speaker 1: get beat by Wisconsin, and Wisconsin, by the way, case

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Speaker 1: you didn't notice, is ranked thirteenth right now and they're

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Speaker 1: playing their best football, wouldn't be the craziest thing in

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Speaker 1: the world. That would leave the Big Ten on the

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Speaker 1: outside looking in, shockingly, I know, but it would leave

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Speaker 1: them on the outside looking in, you also have a

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Speaker 1: distinct possibility of the Big Twelve bumper cars scenario. Right now,

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State looks to be the best shot out of

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Speaker 1: that conference. But I got a couple questions actually about

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Speaker 1: the Big Twelve. Can Oklahoma make it? Like Oklahoma sitting

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Speaker 1: there at what ten? Right now? They're a one loss team,

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Speaker 1: they could still win the conference. They would be one

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Speaker 1: loss conference champ. I wonder can they make it in?

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's some people out there who think yes,

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Speaker 1: some people who think no. I'm not an expert on

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Speaker 1: this stuff. I'm just telling you, I'm looking at the resumes.

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Speaker 1: If you're watching on YouTube Jesse's it's a pretty graphic

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Speaker 1: by the way he made he's showing him to you.

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Speaker 1: And what about Baylor. Baylor's nine and two, but they're

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Speaker 1: ranked eighth right now, and Baylor still has potentially a

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Speaker 1: Big Twelve championship game of their own to play against

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Speaker 1: either Oklahoma or well against Oklahoma State. I guess it

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Speaker 1: would be can they make it in? Or could the

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Speaker 1: Big Twelve be left out entirely? Could Oklahoma win Saturday

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Speaker 1: and then get beat in the rematch a week later

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Speaker 1: against Oklahoma State? All of these things could happen, but

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you the one I want to know. This

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Speaker 1: would I mean, this would cause some sure fire five

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Speaker 1: alarm puckering in my home state. If Georgia goes to

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Speaker 1: the SEC championship game, you gotta itch right there between

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Speaker 1: my eyes. If Georgia goes to the SEC championship game

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Speaker 1: and they win, this is a moot point. If Georgia

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Speaker 1: goes to Atlanta and they lose a close game to Alabama,

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Speaker 1: where are they going to fall? They're not falling out, obviously,

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Speaker 1: Where are they gonna fall? This is very important, This

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Speaker 1: is critically important. I'm not a believer they would fall

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Speaker 1: all the way to four. I'm a believer they would

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Speaker 1: fall to number three at worst. And let me tell

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Speaker 1: you what that would mean. What that would mean is

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Speaker 1: you're no longer undefeated, and you did not just win

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Speaker 1: a conference championship. Now you're still in the playoff. But

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Speaker 1: here's where the reset button happens. All of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: instead of being SEC champion one seed, undefeated Georgia, you

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Speaker 1: are Division winner, one loss Georgia. That is not the

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Speaker 1: one seed, and you may have to play Ohio State

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Speaker 1: in round one point Georgia and Georgia fans more specifically,

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Speaker 1: this is how quickly things can change. I did a

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Speaker 1: segment on this a couple of weeks ago. This is

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Speaker 1: why immense pressure is on Georgia. Things can change so

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Speaker 1: radically and so quickly, because if you lose Tobama, all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, you're looking at You're saying, whoa, we

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Speaker 1: gotta play Ohio State. And if you're playing Ohio State,

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Speaker 1: it's cause they're in the playoff, which means they beat

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Speaker 1: Michigan and they beat Wisconsin and are probably playing lights

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Speaker 1: out football in the process, and you're gonna look and

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Speaker 1: you're gonna say, we got to go play them. Now

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Speaker 1: if we lose that game, what are we? Well, we're

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Speaker 1: twelve and two with no conference champpionship and no college

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Speaker 1: football playoff win, Like, what are we? That's why the

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Speaker 1: regular season stuff is meaningless. They know it in Georgia.

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you have tried to make this point on

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Speaker 1: the show that we've been in such cruise control mode

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Speaker 1: with Georgia costs. They've been so good all year. This

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Speaker 1: is where the pressure starts. This is where it really

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Speaker 1: ramps up. So that's what I'm paying attention to if

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Speaker 1: they win their number one, if they lose, I want

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Speaker 1: to know where they are. The other thing is I

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Speaker 1: kind of talked about this already. I really wonder who

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Speaker 1: can get in at this point, who can't. I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of that's going to have to do with

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Speaker 1: how teams play this Saturday. But that since that Sincey

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Speaker 1: conundrum and the Notre Dame conundrum, those are gonna be

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Speaker 1: really fun to watch. I got to talk to you

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Speaker 1: a second, as I adjust my chair again, I got

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Speaker 1: to talk to you about some friends of mine and

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Speaker 1: they are named Academy Sports and Outdoors. Weird, I know,

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Speaker 1: but you checked the birth certificate. That's exactly what it says.

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Speaker 1: I had to do some shopping. I am mister integrity.

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Speaker 1: I did not use the gift cards they've given me.

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Speaker 1: That is for you guys. And by the way, if

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Speaker 1: you are in ann Arbor this Saturday, I'm gonna have

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Speaker 1: a fresh round to gift cards in my pocket. It's

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Speaker 1: going to be very deep in the pocket because I'm

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Speaker 1: have several layers on. But Academy Sports and Outdoors. As

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Speaker 1: we wrap up twenty twenty one, it's been a relationship

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Speaker 1: and it's been a partnership that we did not even

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Speaker 1: know we were going to have going into the summer.

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Speaker 1: But then again, the numbers that we have on this show,

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Speaker 1: we didn't know we were going to be capable of

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Speaker 1: going into the summer. So when we get into February,

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Speaker 1: we have some time to unwind and we can tell

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Speaker 1: you a little bit more. And I have time, frankly,

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Speaker 1: to tell you a little bit more about the evolution

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Speaker 1: of this past six months. It's going to be a

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Speaker 1: fun story when I can tell you. But Academy Sports

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Speaker 1: and Outdoors is an integral part of that story. And

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Speaker 1: so normally what happens in these podcasts is when you

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Speaker 1: get a partnership, they send you ad copy. It's normally seasonal,

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Speaker 1: and therefore, if you listen to your favorite podcast out there,

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Speaker 1: it's normally someone reading off a sheet of paper and

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Speaker 1: they have prepared copy because the company does not trust

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Speaker 1: that person to just wing it. Academy, I don't know

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Speaker 1: if this is smart on their part or not. They

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Speaker 1: have trusted me to just wing it. They have sent

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Speaker 1: me ad copy as backup, but they have been so

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Speaker 1: instrumental in so much of the traction that we've been

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Speaker 1: able to get as a show within this company. This

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Speaker 1: is not just twenty four to seven guys, it's ViacomCBS.

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Speaker 1: They're a really big deal. That market cap is in

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Speaker 1: the billions and billions and billions, and our show around here,

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Speaker 1: while we've been successful, we don't have a B on

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Speaker 1: the front of our totals that we generate around here.

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Speaker 1: So yet Academy has helped us greatly. And so the

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Speaker 1: reason that I reiterate this to you over and over

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Speaker 1: again is because you would be surprised. And how many

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Speaker 1: times I open my inbox and folks just flat out

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Speaker 1: ask what can I do to help the show. Some

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Speaker 1: of you want to make graphics, some of you want

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Speaker 1: to do animations for us, and by the way, you have.

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Speaker 1: But a lot of you just love the community that

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Speaker 1: we have here and you just want to participate any

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Speaker 1: way you can. This is how you do it. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the channel, you leave the five star

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Speaker 1: reviews in the pod, but you patronize our partner, not partners.

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Speaker 1: We don't mess the show up with a bunch of advertising.

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Speaker 1: We got one partner and they make a lot of

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Speaker 1: this possible. They keep the show free. And so as

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Speaker 1: we wrap up this year. I want to tell you

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Speaker 1: the story down the road, but I'm just here's enough

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Speaker 1: of the story. They make a lot of what we

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Speaker 1: do possible, and so I really appreciate it when you

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Speaker 1: guys in turn show them a little love in doing

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Speaker 1: the kind of shopping you have to do. Anyway, this

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Speaker 1: time of year. Never a better time. And if you

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Speaker 1: can't get to an Academy Sports and Outdoors in person,

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Speaker 1: Academy dot com it's there. I just checked it as

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Speaker 1: a five minutes ago. The website is operational and working. Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is a big, big week. It is rivalry week. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: we are going to head to Michigan. I've never been

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Speaker 1: to the Ohio State Michigan game. I grew up in

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Speaker 1: the South, well documented by this point, and so I

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Speaker 1: grew up around the Iron Bowl. We're going to talk

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Speaker 1: about that game later. I grew up around Georgia, Florida, Bama, Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: Believe it or not, kids, once upon a time was

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Speaker 1: a huge rivalry too. And I always heard about OU

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Speaker 1: Texas and I always heard about Ohio State Michigan, but

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Speaker 1: I didn't know about it. And I still have never

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Speaker 1: witnessed this in person, but I remember even a wee

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Speaker 1: JP used to watch these games. And I tell my

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Speaker 1: buddies who just bathed in the sec kool a guys,

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Speaker 1: I think there may be something north of the Mason

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Speaker 1: Dixon line and they would say, shut up, no, there's not.

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Speaker 1: My daddy told me there wasn't. Well there is, And

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Speaker 1: now at least one of us gets to temporarily leave

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Speaker 1: our roots and head up to the Great White North

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Speaker 1: and we get to witness this in all its splendor Saturday.

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Speaker 1: There are so many factors that make this must see television.

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Speaker 1: The first one, which is not even really one of

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Speaker 1: the factors I listed, This is what college football is

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Speaker 1: all about, Saturdays in the fall, rivalry weekend. This is

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Speaker 1: what college football is all about. Because there's no safety

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Speaker 1: net under this game. They're either going to win this

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Speaker 1: one or they're going to go play for something less

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Speaker 1: than they really want to. Did you know Number one

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Speaker 1: and number two playing college basketball tonight? Because I didn't

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Speaker 1: until about forty five minutes ago. That's what a huge

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Speaker 1: postseason does. It renders your regular season completely and utterly meaningless.

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Speaker 1: We don't have that in this sport yet, thank the Lord.

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Speaker 1: And therefore, these kinds of games are total do or die.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be a war. So that's not even

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Speaker 1: one of the listed reasons. Here's part one of why

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Speaker 1: this is going to be must sy. It's the rivalry

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Speaker 1: aspect in and of itself. These teams didn't play last year?

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Speaker 1: Did you forget that? I don't think the Ohio State

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Speaker 1: Buckeyes did. I don't think Michigan did. E did. But

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Speaker 1: I really don't think Ohio State has forgotten. Oh. By

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Speaker 1: the way, if you're watching on YouTube, this is the

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Speaker 1: recent history. See that. That's ugh recent history of this rivalry.

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Speaker 1: It's ugly. Don't bother watching the replay if you're a

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Speaker 1: Michigan fan. However, here's the second thing you need to know.

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Speaker 1: This is what makes it, I think, the most appealing

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Speaker 1: on a national scale, even if you don't care about

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Speaker 1: the playoff implications, and even if you're not a fan

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Speaker 1: of one of these teams. Both head coaches feel great

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Speaker 1: about where their teams are. Both programs feel like they're

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Speaker 1: playing their best football. They are peaking at the right time.

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Speaker 1: Are the Buckeyes and the Wolverines fantastic theater Even if

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Speaker 1: you don't love the sporting aspect, If you just love

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Speaker 1: the storyline aspect, it's going to be great. I got

429
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 1: a question for you, how would you attack Michigan if

430
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 1: you were Ryan Day? You're looking at what you have

431
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 1: a plethora of offensive weapons. If you're Ohio State, if

432
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:48,880
Speaker 1: you're Ryan Day, how would you attack Michigan. You really

433
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 1: got two options here. You can either go for the

434
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,400
Speaker 1: throat immediately and you can attack them over the top,

435
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 1: and you can look out wide and see all of

436
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,720
Speaker 1: that offensive weaponry and say they cannot match it. They

437
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 1: don't have our athleticism, they don't have our speed. Now,

438
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 1: I'm not saying you're going to be right. I'm saying

439
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,359
Speaker 1: you probably think this. If you're Ohio State, and you

440
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 1: can totally go after their dbs and their linebackers, and

441
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 1: you can expose them early, and at that point you're

442
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 1: up so big that it shaves out fifty percent of

443
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 1: their offensive playbook like you did with Michigan State last week,

444
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,640
Speaker 1: and they're done. You crowbar their kneecaps in quarter one

445
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 1: in their own building. You could choose to go about

446
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,360
Speaker 1: it that way. You also know there's another option here,

447
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 1: and the other option is you can trust your offensive

448
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:30,439
Speaker 1: line and you can trust that offensive backfield of yours,

449
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 1: and you can run right at those big edge rushers

450
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 1: from Michigan and you can make them earn the right

451
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,880
Speaker 1: to rush the passer. Michigan is counting on being able

452
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 1: to affect CJ. Stroud, a combination of weather low thirties,

453
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:46,680
Speaker 1: a combination of crowd obviously one hundred and twelve thousand

454
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 1: people their Saturday, and a combination of an effective pass rush.

455
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 1: They are hoping to get home and rattle that first

456
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 1: year starter on the road. It's a pretty darn good

457
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 1: bet that you can do it unless you run the

458
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 1: ball right at them on first downs and constantly second, four, third,

459
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,160
Speaker 1: and one. At that point, the pass rush really does

460
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:05,879
Speaker 1: not have the kind of impact on this game that

461
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 1: you hope it does. How would you go about it?

462
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 1: What would be your approach early on? I think Ryan

463
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: Day is going to opt for approach one. I think

464
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 1: they are so reffed up for this thing. I think

465
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 1: they trust their recruiting and development so much. I think

466
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 1: they believe at Ohio State they still have a significant

467
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 1: athletic advantage and speed advantage over Michigan. They have done

468
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 1: everything they can possibly do to close the gap in

469
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 1: those compartments at Michigan. I still think the Buck guys

470
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 1: believe they had that. Therefore, I believe they are going

471
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 1: to go for the throat early. Now they may swing

472
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 1: and miss, or they may hit a home run, which

473
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 1: brings me to my next point. Second shout out of

474
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 1: the show for our buddies at college football nerds. Sometimes

475
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 1: I'll go watch their preview videos before I do our preview.

476
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:53,159
Speaker 1: It is I promise you this, It is the only

477
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 1: other entity out there. Otherwise I shut myself off to

478
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 1: the world. But I will go watch their preview videos.

479
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 1: Number one, cause they've put them out like Saturday five

480
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 1: minutes after the game ends. And number two, they have

481
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 1: their own proprietary model as well. I'm always curious about

482
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,120
Speaker 1: what their model is, saying their model looks very similar

483
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 1: to ours. In fact, ours is a little bit closer

484
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 1: in this game than theirs is even this week. But

485
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 1: I thought they made a very good point, and I

486
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,439
Speaker 1: would encourage you go watch their Ohio State and Michigan

487
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 1: preview video. Those guys encouraged me to get into this space.

488
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,400
Speaker 1: I probably wouldn't be here if it weren't for them

489
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 1: saying that and continuing to nudge me so there's always

490
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 1: an appreciation there. But they made a really good point

491
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 1: about the Michigan State game last week and how Ohio

492
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 1: State went about things early, and I think it directly

493
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:38,679
Speaker 1: applies to this game. And essentially what it was was

494
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:42,159
Speaker 1: Ohio State got up on Michigan State so quickly and

495
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,679
Speaker 1: so early, with that fourteen to oh lead, that it

496
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 1: made Michigan State abandon the most effective parts of their

497
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 1: offensive game plan, i e. Kenneth Walker, who ended up

498
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 1: running the ball less than ten times I think the

499
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 1: whole game. And at that point you obviously have no shot,

500
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,360
Speaker 1: and what was already a big early lead turned into

501
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,639
Speaker 1: a complete blowout by halftime. And it was because you

502
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 1: took what was already a good start and you render

503
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 1: them totally ineffective and helpless, and therefore they had no

504
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 1: shot and you got huge margin early. Well, obviously it

505
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 1: stands to reason Ohio State looks at that and says,

506
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:21,880
Speaker 1: if that worked against Michigan State, it should work against Michigan, right,

507
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 1: like they want to do some of the same things.

508
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 1: Why don't we just go get ourselves a three touchdown

509
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 1: lead early against Michigan? Why don't more teams do? Why

510
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 1: don't more teams try and score early. That's an interesting

511
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 1: it's an Interigan concept there. Obviously, Michigan cannot allow this

512
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 1: to happen, and so Josh gattis the offensive coordinator there

513
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 1: from Michigan. There's a formula for Michigan to win this game.

514
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 1: The line's not twenty seven. It is seven or eight,

515
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 1: depending on where you're looking. He's got to trust his plan.

516
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 1: You don't look at this particular game. I know it's different,

517
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 1: but you don't look at it and do things totally

518
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,959
Speaker 1: different than what got you here. You're here because you're

519
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 1: a really good team. You're in this position as a

520
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 1: single digit underdogging It's Ohio State for a reason. You

521
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 1: gotta trust your approach, and you got to let your

522
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,160
Speaker 1: players play, and you got to let Cad McNamar throw

523
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 1: the ball, and you got to mix run and pass

524
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,959
Speaker 1: on early downs. But also you have got to on

525
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: the other side of that ball, you got to hit CJ.

526
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,959
Speaker 1: Stroud because you cannot have that crowd become a factor.

527
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:20,959
Speaker 1: You cannot have the weather become a factor unless you

528
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: affect him early. This is what Michigan State certainly was

529
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 1: not able to do last week. And also Michigan State

530
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 1: was not able to stop the fast start. On the

531
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,679
Speaker 1: other side, you cannot be letting them get up on

532
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: you early. You cannot let them do what you did

533
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 1: to Michigan State. If you're Michigan, you can't have thirty

534
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 1: fourteen Ohio State. They're not coming back from that. But

535
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,640
Speaker 1: what I think they can do is I think they

536
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 1: can look and they can say, for all of talk

537
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 1: about us not facing an elite passing attack, how many

538
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 1: of them have Ohio State faced where where is an

539
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: important point here where there was offensive balance that was

540
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 1: able to be maintained. How many good passing attacks have

541
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 1: they faced where they did not render half of the

542
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,880
Speaker 1: opponent's offense. Pretty irrelevant. Now that's a credit to Ohio State.

543
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 1: But you're sitting there thinking that you're better than all

544
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 1: the teams they played. If you get them in that

545
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 1: situation where it's one possession either way, and you got

546
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: a good mixture of run pass balance, you can make

547
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,159
Speaker 1: some plays against their secondary too. Is my point. A

548
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 1: lot of folks going to talk about what Ohio State's

549
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 1: going to do to your secondary, I guarantee in Michigan's

550
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:22,919
Speaker 1: looking at this and saying there's a place to be

551
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: made against some of those safety spotsors. It's not that

552
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 1: long ago that we were watching Nebraska in Ohio State

553
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 1: go on the road against Nebraska, and we're watching Perdue

554
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,400
Speaker 1: make a play or two. So those are some things

555
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 1: that watching Ohio State last week makes it hard to

556
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 1: believe could happen. But it could happen. But I'll tell

557
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,199
Speaker 1: you the factor that I think is going to make

558
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 1: this a close game, and that is our freeze point

559
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: metaphor that we have not used that much this year,

560
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:47,959
Speaker 1: but I've been using it the last couple of weeks.

561
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: Had to dust it off because there hasn't been an

562
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: elite team out there offensively this year until Ohio State

563
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 1: has come on as of late where we needed to

564
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 1: use it. The freeze point was not met last week.

565
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 1: These games are so dangerous when you have a blowout,

566
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 1: especially late in the year. When you have a blowout

567
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 1: like we watched in person last week Ohio State over

568
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:12,360
Speaker 1: Michigan State, it can dramatically skew your perception of reality

569
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,239
Speaker 1: and it makes it impossible for your simple mind or

570
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:19,199
Speaker 1: my simple mind to fathom that anyone could beat that

571
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 1: team or hang with that team that I just saw

572
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 1: put forty nine to nothing on the board by halftime,

573
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 1: and that's not how football works. Here is what the

574
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 1: freeze point essentially is. Thirty two point forty degrees fahrenheit.

575
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,160
Speaker 1: That's the freeze point. If you were not below it,

576
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter what the temperature is. It could be

577
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 1: thirty four, it could be seventy four, and it's the

578
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:44,400
Speaker 1: same way defensively or just team wise. If you are

579
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 1: not a certain caliber, Ohio State will just do the

580
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,640
Speaker 1: same thing to you. You could be the thirty eighth

581
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:52,400
Speaker 1: best team in the country. I could be the one

582
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 1: hundred and eighth best team in the country. They would

583
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,119
Speaker 1: just blow both of us out. We would look no

584
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:59,400
Speaker 1: different because neither of us meet the freeze point. Michigan

585
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 1: does meet the freeze point. The question, as I said

586
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 1: earlier in the week, is how much below freezing are they?

587
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 1: Are they just right at thirty two point four? Are

588
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: they twenty five degrees? You know, obviously that has to

589
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 1: do a lot with how quick you can freeze something,

590
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 1: how hard you can freeze something well. With Michigan, you know,

591
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 1: how well you can rush the passer, how much effect

592
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: you can have on CJ. Stroud, how much you impact

593
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 1: in physically early in the game, how much that crowd's

594
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,959
Speaker 1: able to stay in it, and how well your secondary

595
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 1: plays guys off the line and hangs with them and

596
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: contests balls. You know, if you just eliminate guys running

597
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:36,400
Speaker 1: free in your secondary, you have no idea how many

598
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 1: points that's worth relative to last week. Coming into this week,

599
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 1: everyone's going to have fifty six to seven or forty

600
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 1: nine to nothing. In their head, it's zero to zero.

601
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:49,520
Speaker 1: That's what the score is. And if you're a different

602
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 1: caliber team that's below the freeze point, that's where you start.

603
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 1: And you also think to yourself, not only is forty

604
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 1: nine nothing not in the cards, we could win this game.

605
00:28:57,920 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 1: So just keep the freeze point in mind. If you

606
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 1: turn this thing on midway through the third quart and

607
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 1: it's a dogfight, and you're saying to yourself, how in

608
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 1: the world is Michigan hanging with this team that was

609
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: up forty nine to nothing at halftime last week, it's

610
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 1: the freeze point that's it. Want I just want credit

611
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: if anyone says that on TV. So let's take a

612
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: look at the model. Jesse very controversial. The model is

613
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 1: very controversial here Ohio State is an eight point favorite,

614
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 1: which in and of itself has already surprised people because

615
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 1: of the aforementioned blowout last week. The model is even

616
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 1: shorter than that. Our model has Ohio State winning this

617
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 1: game by five and a half points. Michigan may end

618
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 1: up being one of our best bets this week because

619
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: it crosses so many key numbers. I have not put

620
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 1: it out yet because, quite frankly, I expect a ton

621
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 1: more public money to come in on Ohio State and

622
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 1: we could have a nine or ten by kickoff. If

623
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 1: we get to ten, suffice it to say, we will

624
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 1: be on the Wolverines. I am taking Ohio State to

625
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 1: win the game. I think it is very close. Obviously,

626
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 1: I think it's a very close game. Would not shock

627
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: me if Michigan pulls this out. It is the best

628
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 1: shot they've had in a while. I think that coaching

629
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 1: staff internally believes that. I think they'll have a solid

630
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: plan in place. But look, you cannot count on Ohio

631
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 1: State being down. They are going to come in as

632
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 1: a better team than you and give you their absolute

633
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 1: best shot. And if you can sustain that and withstand

634
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 1: that encounter punch, then you deserve to win. I'm telling you,

635
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 1: I don't think many teams can do it. I still

636
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: have questions as to whether Michigan can do it, but

637
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 1: I think this is a much different matchup than last week,

638
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 1: and I think Michigan will give themselves an opportunity in

639
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 1: the second half to win this game. I think the

640
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 1: Buckeyes are just a little bit too good. I'm gonna

641
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 1: take Ohio State to win, but I will take Michigan

642
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 1: to cover. We're gonna get back to previews in just

643
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 1: a second because we still have several of them to go.

644
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 1: I appreciate you being tuned in. If you are watching live,

645
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 1: make sure you subscribe to the channel. You thought I

646
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 1: was gonna ask for a donation, I didn't subscribe to

647
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 1: the channel. That's all I need you to do. That's it.

648
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 1: It's free. You don't get spammed, nothing happens. Just subscribe.

649
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 1: We had like five hundred people subed to the channel

650
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 1: the other night when I asked, that's a really good

651
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 1: converts rate. I appreciate that. So just click that little

652
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: red subscribe button. The latest coaching intel out there. So

653
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 1: there's a lot of movement, and I first wanted to

654
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 1: start with something that happened today. James Franklin has signed

655
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 1: a ten year extension Jesse Colin, how old will you be?

656
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 1: Twenty thirty one? James Franklin, at least the piece of

657
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 1: paper he signed today says he will be the Niitney

658
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 1: Lions head coach through twenty thirty one. It's ten years,

659
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 1: it's about seven million per he's got, He's got some

660
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 1: incentives and whatnot in there, descending by out. It's pretty

661
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 1: standard looking contract. What we don't know is all the

662
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 1: other promises that he had to have been given behind

663
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 1: the scenes. Now, look, I'm going to be full disclosure

664
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 1: with you now that this is over. I don't think

665
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 1: James Franklin's name was in the pool nearly to the

666
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 1: degree you were led to believe at USC's just what

667
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 1: I think. I got good reason to think that. But

668
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 1: that's not to disparage him. Good for James Franklin. What

669
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 1: I hope is I hope this is not the last

670
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 1: time that we see a coach that may have options

671
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 1: stick around. It's not the worst thing in the world.

672
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 1: So James Franklin stays at Penn State. Now here's what

673
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 1: I was thinking when I read this news, is this

674
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 1: the only guy with options that's going to stick around

675
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 1: because you see right now, you look out there and

676
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 1: we have this wildly volatile coaching market, and what do

677
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 1: you automatically think, Well, you automatically think anyone whose name

678
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 1: is involved and who has options is just automatically going

679
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 1: to be on the move. Why, Well, because I just

680
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 1: think they should be on the move. Well, James Franklin

681
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 1: didn't move, who else may stay put? Because it made

682
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 1: me think of Dave Randa, and I wonder have we

683
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 1: put the cart before the horse with Dave Randa, With

684
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 1: all these jobs open from southern cal to LSU to Florida,

685
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 1: and Dave Randa out there at little old Baylor. Apologies

686
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 1: to dablswiney, little old Baylor out there. You know who

687
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 1: in the world would ever choose Baylor over USC or Florida.

688
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe Dave Randa would. I can tell

689
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 1: you when we were out there a couple of weeks ago,

690
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 1: he didn't bat an eye when he looked us dead

691
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 1: in our eyes and talked about how much he loved Baylor.

692
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 1: And so all I'm at asking, humbly is with all

693
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 1: the assumption that it's going to be not if But

694
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 1: when Dave Randa leaves and the only question is which

695
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: job is he going to take? I wonder if there

696
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 1: may be an alternative in there, and that alternative could

697
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 1: be Dave Randa says, I appreciate it. I'm good here,

698
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 1: and everyone goes ooh oh, man, how could he do that? Well,

699
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 1: Matt Campbell's done it at Iowa State. I don't think

700
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 1: people quite realize how some of these guys are wired differently,

701
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 1: and they don't always view programs the same way the

702
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 1: public does. The public looks at Baylor and they see

703
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 1: a rung on the coaching ladder. The public looks at

704
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 1: Iowa State Cincinnati, they see rungs on the coaching ladder. Well,

705
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 1: Louisiana could fit that description too. Billy Napier has let

706
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 1: some opportunities go by. I don't know what Daver Randa

707
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: is going to do. I'm telling you right now. If

708
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 1: pet State had a job opening, I'd go lay down

709
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 1: behind the guy's car until he agreed to be my

710
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 1: head coach. So absolutely, if I were Florida or LSU

711
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 1: or USC, i'd go after him. I think you're foolish

712
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 1: you don't, But I also am not going to assume

713
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 1: that he's just ready to leave Baylor. I think it's

714
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 1: been kind of irresponsible on my part that I've just assumed, Oh,

715
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 1: it's going to be one of them. Maybe it is,

716
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,839
Speaker 1: Maybe it isn't. Look, I got a green charpie up

717
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: here for Dave Randa. You know, that's kind of that's

718
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 1: some imagery I've had on the show that no one's

719
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 1: picked up on. But I just made that up. But

720
00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:24,320
Speaker 1: Dave Randa may have roots planted a little deeper in Waco,

721
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 1: Texas than you've been led to believe. Let me just

722
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 1: put it that way. So let's go to Florida. What's

723
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,479
Speaker 1: the latest with Florida. There's been a lot of Billy

724
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 1: Napier smoke down there. I think it is legitimate. I

725
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 1: don't particularly think a lot of this has been the

726
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: best kept secret in the world. But when the Florida

727
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 1: job came open, I mean it stood to reason. You know,

728
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,800
Speaker 1: Billy Napier had in some ways slow played other jobs

729
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 1: because he's been waiting for this opportunity. And when I

730
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 1: say this opportunity, I'm not speaking about the Florida jobs

731
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 1: specifically or exclusively. Although I do think Florida has been

732
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,400
Speaker 1: on his very short list, and so it's open. Of

733
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 1: course Billy Napier wants the job. If you are Florida,

734
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 1: if you are Scott Strickland and this guy checks your boxes,

735
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 1: you hire him yesterday, get it done, Get it done now.

736
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 1: I think Florida's still doing their due diligence on some

737
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 1: other guys whose names maybe you haven't heard. But if

738
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 1: Billy Napier checks your boxes, number one, you hire him,

739
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 1: and number two, you don't waste a moment asking yourself,

740
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 1: why aren't we having to fight LSU for this guy?

741
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 1: The reason LSU may or may not want him is

742
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 1: totally inconsequential. You said it yourself. If you're Scott Strickland,

743
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 1: you said it yourself. What the rest of college football

744
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 1: is doing in their coaching searches should not affect the

745
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 1: University of Florida. You were right. It was only forty

746
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 1: eight seventy two hours ago. You were right then, you're

747
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 1: still right now. If you think that way, if Billy

748
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: Napier is your guy, you go get yourself Billy Napier

749
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 1: and you let him start putting together a staff. But

750
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 1: I do believe that the same factor is possibly in

751
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 1: play with Florida as was in play or still is

752
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 1: theoretically with LSU. Remember at the outset of the LSU

753
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 1: coaching search, I told you it had been relayed to me.

754
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 1: Don't just focus on the names that are being reported.

755
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 1: This is an extremely highly thought of job within the industry.

756
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 1: There are going to be people reach out in a

757
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,719
Speaker 1: very clandestine manner. I think that's the first time we've

758
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:18,319
Speaker 1: ever used that word. And you're not going to hear

759
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 1: about him until they sign a contract, and if they don't,

760
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 1: you'll never hear about them. But they're happening. Those conversations

761
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 1: are happening behind the scenes. I think there may be

762
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 1: some of those conversations happening with the University of Florida.

763
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:32,239
Speaker 1: Could be a pro guy, could be a college guy,

764
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 1: could be a guy you think is is firmly planted

765
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:39,839
Speaker 1: wherever he is, And maybe he is, but maybe he's

766
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:42,240
Speaker 1: choosing to kick the tires. Maybe he's having his agent

767
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 1: choose to kick the tires. This stuff happens, and that's

768
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 1: why I wish we could get some ads write some

769
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 1: books on this stuff long after they're finished. So I

770
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 1: think you'd be really surprised how much correspondence happens. It

771
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 1: never goes anywhere most of the time, but how much

772
00:36:55,440 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 1: kind of just that initial surface based conversation happens. I

773
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 1: think that's going to happen with Florida. I think it

774
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 1: is happening with LSU. I believe the word on the

775
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 1: street right now that they are not all that interested

776
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 1: in Billy Napier. I believe that. I think the reasons

777
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 1: may be a little short sighted, but I do believe that.

778
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 1: I don't think he's out of it for the LSU job,

779
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 1: but I think he's down the list a little ways

780
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 1: for the LSU job. Again, the reasons don't make a

781
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 1: whole lot of sense to me. I don't really care

782
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 1: if you coach at Louisiana Lafayette or a high school

783
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 1: in Louisiana. If you're the right guy, you're the right guy.

784
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 1: But I'm not making the decision down there Scott Woodward is. However,

785
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 1: there's also a lot of Lincoln Riley's smoke still with

786
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 1: this LSU job, which is why I think this weekend

787
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:44,879
Speaker 1: could be very dramatic. Think about this with me now.

788
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 1: I'm sure the message boards over Incasun country have already,

789
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 1: but the rest of the country is kind of passively

790
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 1: watching this, So let's dive in for a second. Lincoln

791
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 1: Riley has not shot this down. He's the head coach

792
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:01,319
Speaker 1: at Oklahoma and LSU has not hired anyone, So they're

793
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 1: still out there and they're big game hunting. This Saturday's

794
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 1: big because if Oklahoma loses, there is no conference championship

795
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 1: to go play for. There is no college football playoff

796
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 1: spot left to vie for. And at that point, if

797
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 1: it is Lincoln Riley, you'll know. You'll know within twenty

798
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 1: four or forty eight hours. I would imagine. Now here's

799
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 1: what's going to be really juicy. What if Oklahoma loses

800
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 1: Saturday and then there is no Lincoln Riley announcement, and

801
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 1: that means LSU is probably not landing Lincoln Riley. But

802
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 1: they still haven't named anyone, which means, all of a sudden,

803
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:39,319
Speaker 1: are we waiting for another coach who sees it is

804
00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: still going on? Are we waiting for a guy from

805
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 1: the NFL who sees it is still a month away

806
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 1: from concluding? These calendars do not sync up. They never do.

807
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 1: This is a mess. The way the early signing day

808
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 1: and the transfer portal and coaching searches work. It's total mess,

809
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 1: but it does have to happen this way. Watch Saturday.

810
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 1: If ou loses, watch Saturday very very closely. A Sunday,

811
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 1: I guess, would be the day to watch closely. Also,

812
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:08,879
Speaker 1: Luke Fickle, speaking of calendars. No, Luke Fickle's the head

813
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 1: coach at Cincinnati right now, and I've been hearing about

814
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 1: him for about a year from people close to him

815
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 1: who have said his name's always out there. This is

816
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 1: kind of like Matt Campbell. He is not a guy

817
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 1: who's in a hurry to get out of here. Billy

818
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 1: Napier Louisiana has been the same way. He's not a

819
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: guy who's in a hurry to get out of here,

820
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 1: like everyone thinks. If you're at Cincinnati, you must just

821
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 1: be waiting on the first person to cast their eyes

822
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 1: your way, and then you just wave like your Tom

823
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 1: Hanks on the deserted island. Help help come get me.

824
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 1: That's not how Luke Fickle views his job. They genuinely

825
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:42,439
Speaker 1: like being in Cincinnati. They are an Ohio family. They're

826
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 1: about to be in a Power five conference. Anyway, If

827
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 1: you just stay at Cincinnati and they're happy, that's the

828
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 1: best way I can put it they're happy, and so yeah,

829
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 1: I don't think that, you know, Luke Fickle's gonna coach

830
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 1: thirty years and retire at Cincinnati. But it may be

831
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 1: just like Billy Napier, or it may be like Matt

832
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 1: Campbell at Iowa State, going to take a perfect situation

833
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:04,840
Speaker 1: to draw him away. And I can tell you right now,

834
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 1: if that guy goes undefeated and they're in the playoff,

835
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 1: he's not entertaining your offer until their season's over. And

836
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,319
Speaker 1: so at that point, if you want to hire him,

837
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 1: you're sitting there, wait until January? Are you gonna do that?

838
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 1: I mean, if he's your guy, theoretically you should, but

839
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 1: you're really gonna do that. So that's something to keep

840
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 1: in mind with a lot of these guys, these calendars,

841
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 1: they rarely sink up the way you want him to.

842
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 1: And so whether it's Lincoln Riley or whether it's Luke Fickle,

843
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 1: if you want to hire him, you need to root

844
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 1: against him right now. The sooner their season ends and

845
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:36,760
Speaker 1: the sooner that those high stakes are off the table,

846
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 1: the quicker in theory you'd be able to hire him.

847
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's run through some more playoff well playoff

848
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:45,680
Speaker 1: implications on these games, I guess is the best way

849
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 1: to put it. We can't predict the playoff yet. Alabama

850
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 1: at Auburn the Iron Bowl this Saturday. It is three

851
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 1: thirty Eastern time. It's on CBS. This is an absurdly

852
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 1: high number. Alabama's favored by nineteen and a half as

853
00:40:57,040 --> 00:41:01,279
Speaker 1: of this hour. I have so radically flipped on this

854
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:03,759
Speaker 1: game today, so much so that I had to have

855
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:05,799
Speaker 1: Jesse making new graphics. So I'm gonna tell you what

856
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 1: the model thinks in the second. But the model has

857
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:10,359
Speaker 1: a lean. I got a leen, and we are disagreeing,

858
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:12,439
Speaker 1: and unlike most of the time, I think I'm gonna

859
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 1: be right this time when I disagree with the model.

860
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 1: So something that's been flying under the radar because Alabama

861
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:21,840
Speaker 1: has struggled defensively is they haven't struggled across the board defensively.

862
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:24,359
Speaker 1: They've been a really good run defense. It's the number

863
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:27,839
Speaker 1: two run defense in the SEC right now. And it's

864
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 1: something that I think disproportionately matters in this game because

865
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:36,360
Speaker 1: you've got TJ. Finley in there's your backup quarterback for

866
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 1: Auburn and their only hope in this game. If you

867
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 1: want to pull an upset. I'm not talking about covering.

868
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 1: If you want to pull an upset, you've got to

869
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 1: ride Tank Bigsby. And even the games where Bama struggled

870
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 1: a little bit, they've been good. Arkansas had one hundred

871
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 1: and ten on the ground last week. Now, they almost

872
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 1: won because they made way too many explosive plays through

873
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 1: the air, and they had a fake field goal touchdown,

874
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 1: and they did the things through the air and on

875
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 1: special teams that were necessary to win the game. But

876
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 1: they didn't run it. They didn't really run it all

877
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 1: that effectively at all. I don't think Auburn's going to

878
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 1: Saturday either. Now here's the difference. Arkansas had a change

879
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 1: up in a curve ball. They had other ways they

880
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 1: could generate offense. How is Auburn about to generate offense

881
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 1: against Alabama? See, this is what I kept coming back to today.

882
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 1: I got to tell you, I woke up this morning.

883
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 1: I had already bet money on Auburn. I hadn't put

884
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 1: it out as the best bet. I had already bet

885
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 1: Auburn plus twenty a couple of days ago, and I

886
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 1: reversed it today. This is how radically my opinion changed.

887
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 1: So let's dive into this further because you got the

888
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 1: run defense aspect. But I think there's something else that's

889
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,280
Speaker 1: been glaringly obvious, because see, here's the path for Auburn.

890
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 1: Here's where I was before I zoomed in on a

891
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 1: little bit Alabama. We've seen them vulnerable several times this year,

892
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:55,759
Speaker 1: and it's been external stuff, which normally doesn't phase Alabama.

893
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 1: I've been of the opinion they've played their best football

894
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:00,440
Speaker 1: on the road in their better years under new Saban,

895
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:04,319
Speaker 1: not this year. They played at Florida almost lost tough

896
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:07,240
Speaker 1: road environment. They played at Texas A and m got

897
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 1: beat tough road environment. Well, this is the next toughest

898
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:12,759
Speaker 1: road environment they will have played it, and maybe the

899
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 1: toughest they play in all year. I've been down there

900
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:17,839
Speaker 1: several times when they go to Auburn. I've seen them

901
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 1: take the much better team in there and get beat

902
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 1: or struggle. They ran Derrick Henry I think forty six

903
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 1: times one day against Auburn and didn't break him until

904
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 1: late in the fourth quarter. That's the way that that

905
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 1: game normally is. When it's down there. The external stuff

906
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 1: has to impact Bama, and Auburn has to run the

907
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,239
Speaker 1: ball a lot better. Than numbers say they should be

908
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 1: able to for them to have a shot here. I

909
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:42,840
Speaker 1: think it's a horrible matchup for Auburn. I'm telling you,

910
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 1: I think it's really bad matchup for them. And if

911
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:49,760
Speaker 1: those externals don't matter, and if Bama has a level

912
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:53,319
Speaker 1: of the same offensive productivity they did last week, the

913
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:56,480
Speaker 1: stat sheet screams four touchdown win for Bama last week,

914
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 1: but it was it was a one touchdown win well

915
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 1: a lot of times. What that means is is you

916
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:02,719
Speaker 1: may have the line you can take advantage of the

917
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 1: following week because a lot of those externals they're not

918
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 1: going to carry over, but the production will carry over.

919
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 1: So we come into this Iron Bowl and I'm looking

920
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 1: at it and I'm thinking to myself, horrible matchup for Auburn.

921
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 1: If the externals are just neutralized, or even if they

922
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 1: just have a slight effect on Alabama, my field changes

923
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 1: wholesale in this game, and it did today. So a

924
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 1: couple of things I'm going to give you the models

925
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 1: take first, and then I'm going to tell you a

926
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 1: couple of things that I think will happen as a

927
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 1: result of this outcome. Because I'm very clear on how

928
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 1: I feel about this now. So the Vegas number right now,

929
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:35,919
Speaker 1: as you see on the bottom of your screen, it's

930
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 1: Bama minus nineteen and a half. Jesse, Let's show them

931
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 1: what the model thinks, and then I'm going to tell

932
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 1: you why I disagree. So the model has Alabama minus fifteen,

933
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 1: that's early in the week. Why I moved on Auburn.

934
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:48,400
Speaker 1: I got him at plus twenty. They're plus nineteen and

935
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:50,640
Speaker 1: a half right now. I don't think it's right. I

936
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 1: don't think it's right at all. And the model, for

937
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 1: the record, nailed Bama last week. In fact, it's had

938
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 1: a good grip on Bama for a little while. This

939
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 1: is a bad matchup. It's a really bad matchup. I

940
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:03,879
Speaker 1: don't know how Auburn is scoring points, and I think

941
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:06,480
Speaker 1: I do know how Bama's scoring points. And so I'm

942
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 1: gonna take Bama to win. And in an extreme rarity

943
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 1: for playing the Iron Bowl down there, I think they're

944
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 1: gonna cover. I think they're gonna run it up on

945
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 1: Auburn Saturday. And here's what's gonna happen. One thing on

946
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:20,879
Speaker 1: each side of this coin. First thing is there's gonna

947
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 1: be some heat on Brian Harson because there's been a

948
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 1: lot of talk about him and the Washington job. I

949
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 1: told you the other day there is some validity to

950
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 1: the juice. I didn't tell you anything was anywhere close

951
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,839
Speaker 1: to final I'm not telling you that now. I'm telling

952
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 1: you the rumors have persisted, and it's gonna rub that

953
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 1: fan base the wrong way if they limp to the

954
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 1: finish line. They don't care if it's a backup quarterback

955
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:44,360
Speaker 1: or not, if they limp to the finish line. And

956
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 1: they also got to deal with these rumors out there

957
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 1: that haven't been totally squashed yet, those Auburn folks who

958
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:51,920
Speaker 1: are going to be aggravated. Second thing that's gonna happen

959
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 1: if BAMA does run it up on Auburn, that's the

960
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:57,880
Speaker 1: last thing you'll see before they play Georgia. So you

961
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 1: will have seen a really good offensive performances against Arkansas,

962
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 1: then you will have seen a total team performance against Auburn,

963
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:07,960
Speaker 1: and then they're gonna play Georgia. And right now I

964
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 1: think the public feel is Georgia significant edge against Alabama.

965
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 1: If we get the outcome I think we're gonna get here.

966
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 1: I think that game will be viewed in the public

967
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:21,319
Speaker 1: eye as being a lot more evenly matched than it

968
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 1: is right now. So just keep those things in mind.

969
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:26,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Bama to win. I'm gonna take Bama

970
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 1: to cover. Several more predictions to run through as we

971
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:32,719
Speaker 1: wrap the show up, and then I have eleven best

972
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 1: bets for you before we go off here again, thank

973
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 1: you for being tuned in. If you're watching live, what

974
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:38,359
Speaker 1: do I have to do? I have to tell you.

975
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:40,479
Speaker 1: I'm not going to give you the high I'm giving

976
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 1: you the full Hello. If you're watching live, you get

977
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:46,399
Speaker 1: the full Hello tonight. Thank you. So let's go other

978
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 1: Week thirteen aka Rivalry Week predictions here. Let's start on

979
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving night, Ole Miss at Mississippi State. There's a lot

980
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 1: of weird point spreads out there, aren't there. For instance,

981
00:46:56,400 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 1: you guys were shocked the Mississippi States favored over Ole Miss. Oh, Miss,

982
00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 1: I say, is number nine in the country. What are

983
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 1: we doing right here? Well, Mike Lench and company are

984
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 1: favored by one. So the spread, I know, surprised a

985
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 1: lot of you. I've been I've probably been hit up

986
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:11,280
Speaker 1: about this point spread more than any other point spread

987
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 1: this week. I think there's going to be a lot

988
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 1: of talk about whether Mississippi State can handle that ol

989
00:47:16,560 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 1: Miss passing game, and there should be it's a tough

990
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 1: passing game to hold down under certain numbers. But I

991
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 1: don't think there's going to be enough talk about what

992
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 1: Ole Miss defensively can do to limit Will Rogers. And

993
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 1: dude's playing very, very high level football right now. And

994
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:34,840
Speaker 1: so I looked at our model and I said, model,

995
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 1: how wrong is this point spread? And you know what

996
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 1: the model said, The spread's wrong, but it didn't say

997
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 1: in favor of Old Miss. Our model likes Mississippi State

998
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 1: to win by three and a half, and so it

999
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 1: thinks the line should be even more on the side

1000
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:50,400
Speaker 1: of the Mississippi State Bulldogs. I can't believe I'm doing it.

1001
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:53,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Mississippi State to win. I'll take Mississippi

1002
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 1: State to cover. I hate doing it because there are

1003
00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 1: people out there, and I think they've got half these

1004
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 1: reason to feel this way, who really believe I hate

1005
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,560
Speaker 1: All Miss because we've had them ranked high in the

1006
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:07,600
Speaker 1: JP pole, but I've picked them to lose so many

1007
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 1: games because every time that we have had a game

1008
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 1: we've picked on All Miss. There's been some kind of

1009
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:16,040
Speaker 1: situational dynamic in play that for whatever reason, has made

1010
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 1: me go against them. I didn't even realize how many

1011
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 1: times i'd picked against them till someone pointed it out

1012
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:22,320
Speaker 1: the other day, and now I'm doing it again. It

1013
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:24,080
Speaker 1: won't even matter if they do lose. People will still

1014
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:25,799
Speaker 1: think I hate them. I don't hate them. I've had

1015
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:27,759
Speaker 1: them ranked higher than everyone all year, but I do

1016
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:29,880
Speaker 1: think Mississippi State's got an edge year. So I'm going

1017
00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: to take the Bulldogs to win and cover the one point.

1018
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 1: Let's go Saturday, Bedlam Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys

1019
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 1: are currently four point favorites in this thing. It is

1020
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:45,400
Speaker 1: a night game there is if you're watching on YouTube,

1021
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 1: I should to look at what I'm doing in my hands.

1022
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:49,120
Speaker 1: You see how much room that is. That's about how

1023
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 1: much room there is between the sidelines and the fans

1024
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:58,200
Speaker 1: in Stillwater. It's very tight, very very tight, very compact.

1025
00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 1: They're at t boone pickin stadium. Oklahoma State's favored here.

1026
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 1: They should be favored here. I do not feel good

1027
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 1: about Oklahoma's chances. I just got a square with you.

1028
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 1: I was talking about Auburn and not knowing where their

1029
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:12,000
Speaker 1: points are gonna come from. I'm not totally sure where

1030
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:14,839
Speaker 1: Oklahoma's points are gonna come from. Last week, they beat

1031
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:17,279
Speaker 1: Iowa State, and that's a really good win. Here's the

1032
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:19,600
Speaker 1: problem as it relates to this week. They did not

1033
00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:23,360
Speaker 1: top one hundred yards passing last week, and Oklahoma State

1034
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 1: has one of the five best run defenses in college football.

1035
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 1: So you're not gonna win running the ball on them.

1036
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 1: You have got to mix it up. You've got to

1037
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:32,080
Speaker 1: be more balanced, you've got to be able to have

1038
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:35,239
Speaker 1: success throwing the ball. And the problem is, I think

1039
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:37,440
Speaker 1: Oklahoma is just as likely to turn the ball over

1040
00:49:37,800 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 1: if they take to the air too consistently as they

1041
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 1: are to drive it down the field on Oklahoma State. Now,

1042
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:45,880
Speaker 1: the good news is Oklahoma State's probably not going to

1043
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:49,799
Speaker 1: pull away from you. Last week they dominated Texas Tech.

1044
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 1: Well it's twenty three to nothing. When you know that

1045
00:49:52,200 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 1: you're not giving up much, you know you don't have

1046
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 1: to score much. So I think it's gonna be that

1047
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 1: kind of game. But I think in the end, I'm

1048
00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 1: going to take that, plus this road in environment, which

1049
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:02,640
Speaker 1: is going to be out of this world, I'm going

1050
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:05,120
Speaker 1: to take Oklahoma State to win it. I even think

1051
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:07,239
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State's going to cover. I think our model has

1052
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 1: them by a six. So our model leans Oklahoma State

1053
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 1: to cover even at four, so we will take Cowboys

1054
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 1: to win, Cowboys to cover, which punches their ticket to

1055
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 1: the Big twelve championship game to I believe face Baylor.

1056
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:23,960
Speaker 1: Let's move on to another night game on Saturday, Texas.

1057
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,240
Speaker 1: A and M a six and a half point favorite

1058
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:28,840
Speaker 1: on the road at LSU. Our model loves A and M.

1059
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 1: It's one of our best bets. We moved on it

1060
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 1: early in the week. We got it at six, so

1061
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:36,400
Speaker 1: our model has them at ten. Our model has A

1062
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 1: and M winning by ten. They do have the ability,

1063
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 1: I think, to control the line of scrimmage against LSU

1064
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:46,760
Speaker 1: when it comes to their defense against this LSU offense.

1065
00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:49,880
Speaker 1: What I don't think they necessarily have the ability to

1066
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:53,359
Speaker 1: just do for four quarters is have their offensive line

1067
00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 1: control things too to where they can just run the

1068
00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:57,279
Speaker 1: ball and they don't really even have to take all

1069
00:50:57,320 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 1: that many chances with Calzada. Now I think they will.

1070
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 1: I think Zach Calzotta has got to do enough through

1071
00:51:02,520 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 1: the air here or else. This is going to be

1072
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:07,839
Speaker 1: a game where you watch it and you feel like

1073
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 1: you've really controlled it. But yet it's one possession because

1074
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:13,640
Speaker 1: you haven't done enough. You haven't had enough explicitity in

1075
00:51:13,640 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 1: the passing game, and you can't have that if you'll

1076
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 1: demoralize them early. Number one, they'll lay down for you.

1077
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:22,799
Speaker 1: And number two, that crowd will empty out. I don't

1078
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 1: know that they'll have more than seventy five or eighty

1079
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:26,960
Speaker 1: thousand there to begin with Saturday night. There were some

1080
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:30,080
Speaker 1: embarrassing shots taken the other night of Tiger Stadium. Now

1081
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:32,200
Speaker 1: granted they were playing a local high school, but whoo,

1082
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 1: there weren't a lot of folks there. I mean the

1083
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 1: picture I saw, I don't even want to put an

1084
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:38,480
Speaker 1: over under on it. There were not a lot of

1085
00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:40,839
Speaker 1: folks there. It was less than a bad Spring game,

1086
00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:42,880
Speaker 1: let me put it that way. So I don't know

1087
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 1: how much fight LSU's going to have in them, But

1088
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:48,280
Speaker 1: there is an external factor in play in this game

1089
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 1: that I normally wouldn't give the time of day. But

1090
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:54,000
Speaker 1: I think it mattered when LSU played Bama, and I

1091
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 1: think it'll matter here after LSU almost beat Alabama. Ed

1092
00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:02,800
Speaker 1: Orzron revealed something, and he revealed that after they played

1093
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:05,799
Speaker 1: Ole Miss Lane, Kiffin called him up and basically told

1094
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 1: him everything it took to beat him. And one of

1095
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:10,760
Speaker 1: the bags was he said, coach, you know you're running

1096
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:13,200
Speaker 1: the same thing defensively every play, right He said, Oh, no,

1097
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 1: I know. So they changed everything during the bye week

1098
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 1: and almost beat Bama. And so the reason I bring

1099
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:22,759
Speaker 1: that up is because Ole Miss had a ton of

1100
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,839
Speaker 1: success against Texas A and M. They beat them, they

1101
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:27,960
Speaker 1: should have beaten them way more soundly than they did.

1102
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:32,200
Speaker 1: And so I wonder if there's been a conversation between

1103
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:35,640
Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin and old ed ors run last regular season

1104
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 1: game down there at LSU. I just wonder that will

1105
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:40,839
Speaker 1: it matter? Will it not matter even if they did?

1106
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:43,520
Speaker 1: I think it mattered against Bama. So we'll see. But

1107
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:45,239
Speaker 1: I am taking am to win and cover because I

1108
00:52:45,239 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 1: cannot prove what I just said is going to matter

1109
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 1: at all. What about Clemson in South Carolina? There is

1110
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 1: some renewed optimism in Colombia. This line is only eleven

1111
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:57,600
Speaker 1: and a half. Only yeah, eleven and a half, though

1112
00:52:57,960 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 1: a lot better than what you thought it would be

1113
00:52:59,719 --> 00:53:01,720
Speaker 1: at the beginning of the year. This is a seven

1114
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:04,640
Speaker 1: thirty Eastern time game. You know where they're playing it

1115
00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:07,839
Speaker 1: SEC Network. I know the Clemson folks have to love that.

1116
00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:11,800
Speaker 1: This game has the feel of what I call close

1117
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 1: or coffin. It's either one possession or someone's getting skull drug.

1118
00:53:16,200 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 1: That someone probably would be South Carolina. I think it's

1119
00:53:18,960 --> 00:53:21,400
Speaker 1: one possession or a blowout. Don't really think there's a

1120
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:23,760
Speaker 1: whole lot of in between here. What is the path

1121
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:26,920
Speaker 1: to the upset for Carolina? I think a few things.

1122
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:30,120
Speaker 1: It would greatly help me if you could score one

1123
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:32,799
Speaker 1: non offensive touchdown the old knot as they call it.

1124
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:37,360
Speaker 1: Number two. You have to limit yards after catch. Clemson's

1125
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:39,920
Speaker 1: receivers played a pretty good game last week. They may

1126
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,400
Speaker 1: make some plays on you, but you gotta limit yards

1127
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:45,480
Speaker 1: after catch because the third thing is you can't be

1128
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:48,040
Speaker 1: giving that stuff up and also give the run up.

1129
00:53:48,160 --> 00:53:50,600
Speaker 1: I think Clemson is going to commit to probably running

1130
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 1: the ball about seventy thirty relative to pass. Here. South

1131
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 1: Carolina has struggled against the run. That is clearly the

1132
00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 1: best shot Clemson has to not only win this game,

1133
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:01,719
Speaker 1: but really take a lot of the air out of

1134
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:04,319
Speaker 1: the game. In general. It's going to be tough. I

1135
00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 1: think for South Carolina to find enough points, they got

1136
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:09,880
Speaker 1: to hold Clemson. I think the number may be about

1137
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:12,360
Speaker 1: five yards per carry or less, because it's got to

1138
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:15,640
Speaker 1: be realistic, but it's also got to be executable. And

1139
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:18,040
Speaker 1: I think that number five yards per carry, it's gonna

1140
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:20,319
Speaker 1: give Clemson some success, but they're not going to run

1141
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:21,840
Speaker 1: it all over you for three hundred yards like they

1142
00:54:21,880 --> 00:54:25,680
Speaker 1: did last week. Having said that, can't ignore the model.

1143
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 1: The modelight's Clemson buy over two touchdowns. So I will

1144
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 1: take Clemson to win. I will take Clemson to cover.

1145
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:38,600
Speaker 1: But if the not unfathomable, if the unlikely were to happen,

1146
00:54:38,719 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 1: if the upset were to be pulled all of a sudden,

1147
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 1: we take that SEC coach of the Year argument and

1148
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:46,040
Speaker 1: we just throw it out the window, and we may

1149
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:47,520
Speaker 1: have a new leader in the clubhouse. It may be

1150
00:54:47,560 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 1: Shane Beemer. So crazier things have happened, So let's keep

1151
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:52,520
Speaker 1: an eye on that one. I am taking Clemson to

1152
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:54,840
Speaker 1: win and cover. Though. Last game here, Penn State is

1153
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 1: at Michigan State. Michigan State is a one point favorite,

1154
00:54:58,280 --> 00:55:00,440
Speaker 1: are they right now? No, Pence, just see when did

1155
00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 1: Penn State get favored? Well, you know what, we got

1156
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 1: him early in the week as a best bet, and

1157
00:55:04,960 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 1: we got Penn State plus one and a half, so

1158
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:08,799
Speaker 1: good for us. We were on the wrong side of

1159
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:10,680
Speaker 1: some live movement this week. We don't think it's going

1160
00:55:10,760 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 1: to matter, but this is a Saturday three thirty game

1161
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 1: on ABC, sneaky important game for both sides. Think about

1162
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:18,560
Speaker 1: what's on the line here. Now, Michigan State got drug

1163
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:22,200
Speaker 1: last week, and so if they lose this game, those

1164
00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 1: are two of the most bitter tasting pills that could

1165
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:27,720
Speaker 1: possibly be left in your mouth to end a season.

1166
00:55:28,120 --> 00:55:31,359
Speaker 1: Still a huge overachievement of a season, but if you're

1167
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:33,319
Speaker 1: nine and three, ten and two just sounds so much

1168
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:36,239
Speaker 1: better than nine and three. There's also Bowl ramifications here.

1169
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:40,400
Speaker 1: As for Penn State, you've got seven and five or

1170
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:43,080
Speaker 1: eight and four. Those u two options on how you

1171
00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:46,000
Speaker 1: finish here. Sean Clifford is going to start at quarterback

1172
00:55:46,280 --> 00:55:49,480
Speaker 1: for Penn State. Now, this was met with mixed reaction.

1173
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:53,960
Speaker 1: They're amongst the Penn State faithful, and I understand why.

1174
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:56,719
Speaker 1: I get all that. However, if Shan Clifford's ever going

1175
00:55:56,800 --> 00:55:58,239
Speaker 1: to have a career day, I think he had a

1176
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:00,759
Speaker 1: good game against Ohio State, but going to rewrite his

1177
00:56:00,760 --> 00:56:04,319
Speaker 1: own record books given what we saw last week. This

1178
00:56:04,520 --> 00:56:06,560
Speaker 1: is the secondary that he's got to do it against

1179
00:56:06,920 --> 00:56:08,960
Speaker 1: and so I am going to roll the dice on

1180
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 1: Sean Clifford one more time. I feel like I've done

1181
00:56:11,000 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 1: this a million times, feel like I'm right at five hundred.

1182
00:56:14,120 --> 00:56:16,560
Speaker 1: So let's take Penn State to win. The model also

1183
00:56:16,640 --> 00:56:18,920
Speaker 1: likes him to cover, obviously, so we have it as

1184
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:21,719
Speaker 1: one of our best bets, which we're about to list momentarily.

1185
00:56:21,840 --> 00:56:23,719
Speaker 1: We will take Penn State to win. We will take

1186
00:56:23,760 --> 00:56:25,879
Speaker 1: Penn State to cover and finish eight and four still

1187
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:28,520
Speaker 1: a really good year for Michigan State. We will wrap

1188
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:32,439
Speaker 1: the show up accordingly. I have in my hand our

1189
00:56:32,440 --> 00:56:35,239
Speaker 1: eleven best bets of the week. Northern Illinois playing right now.

1190
00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 1: They're plus three and a half. Don't even tell me

1191
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 1: how it's going. Listen close. I'm not even going to

1192
00:56:39,520 --> 00:56:40,920
Speaker 1: give you the full match up. These are too many

1193
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:44,520
Speaker 1: games to give you the full matchup. Ohio minus five

1194
00:56:44,560 --> 00:56:47,920
Speaker 1: and a half, n C State minus six and a half,

1195
00:56:48,440 --> 00:56:51,799
Speaker 1: Arkansas minus thirteen and a half. We did get that

1196
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 1: at minus at nine. However, we like it at fourteen.

1197
00:56:56,400 --> 00:56:58,600
Speaker 1: We like it at fourteen and a half, but we're

1198
00:56:58,640 --> 00:57:00,640
Speaker 1: not endorsing it at fourteen and a half. Half we

1199
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:03,719
Speaker 1: think they're gonna blow who they playing, Missouri. We think

1200
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:06,200
Speaker 1: they're gonna blow Missouri out. Arkansas minus thirteen and a

1201
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:08,120
Speaker 1: half is the number for our records though. A and

1202
00:57:08,280 --> 00:57:11,719
Speaker 1: M minus six and a half. Syracuse plus eleven. Now

1203
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:14,120
Speaker 1: this number's moved. You can get a better number than eleven.

1204
00:57:14,200 --> 00:57:17,080
Speaker 1: Right now. We don't think it's gonna matter, so we

1205
00:57:17,360 --> 00:57:19,560
Speaker 1: will be comfortable. It's kind of like the Virginia game

1206
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:21,760
Speaker 1: last week. You know, Virginia was plus twelve, then they

1207
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:24,000
Speaker 1: were plus fourteen and a half. Well they lost by ten,

1208
00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 1: so we were good either way. Syracuse plus eleven, Penn

1209
00:57:26,600 --> 00:57:28,240
Speaker 1: State plus one and a half. We just talked about

1210
00:57:28,240 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 1: that one. Notre Dame minus seventeen. Here are new games.

1211
00:57:31,880 --> 00:57:35,959
Speaker 1: West Virginia minus fifteen and a half, Wyoming minus ten,

1212
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 1: and this one I love. Minnesota finally moved to seven.

1213
00:57:40,640 --> 00:57:43,520
Speaker 1: We waited and waited, and we got it. Minnesota plus seven.

1214
00:57:43,560 --> 00:57:46,560
Speaker 1: So here we go Wyoming minus ten, West Virginia minus

1215
00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:49,440
Speaker 1: fifteen and hook Notre Dame minus seventeen, Penn State plus

1216
00:57:49,480 --> 00:57:52,040
Speaker 1: one and a half, QS plus eleven, A and M

1217
00:57:52,080 --> 00:57:55,040
Speaker 1: minus six and a half, Arkansas minus thirteen and a half.

1218
00:57:55,320 --> 00:57:58,320
Speaker 1: NC State minus six and a half Ohio minus five

1219
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:01,120
Speaker 1: and a half in northern Illinois plus three and a half.

1220
00:58:01,200 --> 00:58:04,959
Speaker 1: Look from me to you, Happy Thanksgiving. Thank you guys

1221
00:58:05,040 --> 00:58:07,680
Speaker 1: so much. There is no entity on the face of

1222
00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:09,800
Speaker 1: this earth that has more to be thankful for than

1223
00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:12,000
Speaker 1: our show and all the folks associated with our show,

1224
00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 1: which numbers in the millions per month. Now, I mean literally,

1225
00:58:15,280 --> 00:58:18,120
Speaker 1: we got millions of people in this audience. So thank you.

1226
00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:20,240
Speaker 1: Because even though it's a really big audience, it's a

1227
00:58:20,320 --> 00:58:24,480
Speaker 1: national audience. It's very very communal. I put out a

1228
00:58:24,520 --> 00:58:27,280
Speaker 1: call the other night, for example, and I said, I

1229
00:58:27,280 --> 00:58:30,120
Speaker 1: need some parking in Michigan. You know how many people

1230
00:58:30,160 --> 00:58:34,600
Speaker 1: I had within one square mile radius of Michigan Stadium

1231
00:58:34,600 --> 00:58:38,080
Speaker 1: Email me. I cannot believe we have that many people

1232
00:58:38,120 --> 00:58:40,760
Speaker 1: at that specific pinpoint on a map listening, but we do.

1233
00:58:41,120 --> 00:58:43,960
Speaker 1: So parking's been taken care of. I appreciate you guys

1234
00:58:44,000 --> 00:58:46,320
Speaker 1: for coming through. I knew you would save travels. I'm

1235
00:58:46,320 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 1: about to drive like five minutes from now, IM about

1236
00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:50,640
Speaker 1: to drive down to Georgia tonight, so thank you so much.

1237
00:58:50,680 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 1: We will not have a show Thursday. I got you

1238
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:55,120
Speaker 1: a late Kick extra podcast up today. A lot of

1239
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:57,360
Speaker 1: good storytelling from this past weekend on that one, so

1240
00:58:57,440 --> 00:59:00,000
Speaker 1: make sure while you're there give us a five star.

1241
00:59:00,480 --> 00:59:03,560
Speaker 1: Make sure while you're on the YouTube channel subscribe. We've

1242
00:59:03,560 --> 00:59:05,360
Speaker 1: had our best numbers that we've ever had over the

1243
00:59:05,440 --> 00:59:08,040
Speaker 1: last few weeks and the needle is just pointing upward

1244
00:59:08,040 --> 00:59:09,840
Speaker 1: and upward and upward. So thank you so much for that.

1245
00:59:09,960 --> 00:59:13,240
Speaker 1: For director Colin, For producer Jesse, I'm Josh Bate, Happy

1246
00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:17,120
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving to you guys, looking forward to a monster rivalry weekend,

1247
00:59:17,320 --> 00:59:19,080
Speaker 1: and of course we'll be right back here to talk

1248
00:59:19,120 --> 00:59:21,280
Speaker 1: about it Sunday night. Take care, God bless