Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Week
Speaker 1: eight College Football look Ahead with Thor Nystrom. I'm Thomas
Speaker 1: Viola and he's, of course Thorn Eistrum, and we're gonna
Speaker 1: be looking through what the week is going to be
Speaker 1: bringing us ahead in college football. We're already onto week
Speaker 1: eight or at Syracuse here we go. We're getting excited
Speaker 1: now beat NC State Bowl eligible after just six games.
Speaker 1: Could not have imagined this start, and it brings us
Speaker 1: into our first game to talk about here for I mean,
Speaker 1: first off, how are you doing? And second off, SYRACU
Speaker 1: is gonna be able to take down Clemson.
Speaker 2: I'm doing great. Yesterday we're recording on Sunday night. Saturday
Speaker 2: was fabulous. It had gotten as much hype, more hype
Speaker 2: than any other Saturday this season so far, and maybe
Speaker 2: even over last season Saturdays as well, and it somehow
Speaker 2: exceeded the hype. The games were just fabulous. Like the
Speaker 2: theater of it just I mean, like the two thirty
Speaker 2: slot Central time was amazing, but like the whole day
Speaker 2: was amazing, you know in terms of like having games
Speaker 2: up on your screen, and some of those games were
Speaker 2: just instant classics. I'm looking at U Tennessee, Alabama, and
Speaker 2: then at night the dessert course of Utah USC was
Speaker 2: an incredible game as well. So it was just the
Speaker 2: whole thing, just a great college football Saturday. Excited to
Speaker 2: talk about the Lions. And as far as as Syracuse
Speaker 2: clems in, that's a tough matchup for all Syracuse, isn't.
Speaker 1: It eleven and a half point dogs going into Clemson here,
Speaker 1: gonna be tough.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Syracuse has caught it right both with the schedule.
Speaker 2: Early on they were able to ambush Louisville in the opener,
Speaker 2: and then you know, it hasn't been the hardest slate
Speaker 2: you know, to this point. And then you have this
Speaker 2: game Againstenzee State that you would have been the preseason
Speaker 2: circled as like this is gonna be a tough one.
Speaker 2: Once he Stayed had just lost Devin Larry and they
Speaker 2: were banged up as well, and they had to turn
Speaker 2: around on a you know, on a regular week whatever.
Speaker 2: After that, they just sort of snuck by FSU with
Speaker 2: all these injuries. And then Yah, Syracuse of course, as
Speaker 2: you know, had essentially a two straight bye weeks. You'd
Speaker 2: had you were coming off the buy and then you
Speaker 2: played Wagner the week before. Circumstantially it worked out really
Speaker 2: well this one. This is gonna be a tough one Syracuse.
Speaker 2: Of course, as you know, they need to be led
Speaker 2: by the run game. This year, they can do way
Speaker 2: more of the passing. It's way more of a threat
Speaker 2: than it was last year. But you still need to
Speaker 2: be led by the running foot in that. If Syracuse's
Speaker 2: run game goes away that entire offense, you take the
Speaker 2: tent pole out of the circus tent and the whole
Speaker 2: top comes down. Clemson's a team that's able to do
Speaker 2: that with their defensive front.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: Then again, this was the theory of why they were
Speaker 2: going to blow out wake Forth earlier in the season,
Speaker 2: and they have in the past, but Clemson didn't do
Speaker 2: it this year. Clemson's offense has gotten better, but their defense,
Speaker 2: to personnel of it. People have been in, people have
Speaker 2: been out. They've not been as quite as consistent defensively
Speaker 2: as we thought coming in.
Speaker 3: Their secondary has played better.
Speaker 2: I will say that initially first couple weeks of the season,
Speaker 2: Clemson was getting torch through the air. That's gotten a
Speaker 2: little bit better. But if Clemson's able to take away
Speaker 2: that run game of Syracuse. They're gonna run away with
Speaker 2: this thing. But we'll see about the health of their
Speaker 2: front who is active, who is one hundred percent where
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to play the line share of
Speaker 2: the usage because because of circumstances cleansing their front seven
Speaker 2: vaunted for sure talent wise, the best in college football
Speaker 2: this season, but because of all the moving parts, they've
Speaker 2: had to minimize guys' roles, limits snaps, and or guys
Speaker 2: just being out.
Speaker 3: So we'll see how that goes.
Speaker 2: But if they're able to shut off the tap of
Speaker 2: a Syracuse run game, they're going to be in a
Speaker 2: really good spot here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm more than nervous. It's hard to
Speaker 1: be nervous when you're eleven and a half point dogs.
Speaker 1: You're just hoping that something can happen. We'll have to
Speaker 1: see in this game, and you can hit that nail
Speaker 1: on the head with let the success from yesterday, it
Speaker 1: was a fantastic day. I have another buddy who gives
Speaker 1: me a couple college football picks a week, and I
Speaker 1: just like he knows the sport enough where I'm following
Speaker 1: him pretty comfortably blind. And yesterday I just had the Inklan.
Speaker 1: I was like, ah, you know what, I took four
Speaker 1: of them, put him in a little parlay. Ends up
Speaker 1: with a nice little bonus out of the day, which
Speaker 1: is good because I've taken a bath on NFL so
Speaker 1: far this Sunday. But speaking of teams that took a bath, here,
Speaker 1: Ohio State is going up against Iowa, and I think
Speaker 1: that this might be the game where we finally get
Speaker 1: more than a couple of touchdowns in an Iowa football game,
Speaker 1: don't you think here Thorn minus twenty nine in the
Speaker 1: Horseshoe with the Buckeyes.
Speaker 2: Boy do I hope so? Because if not, this one
Speaker 2: could turn into a margin thing real quick.
Speaker 3: It.
Speaker 2: I mean, we're gonna know really early after the kickoff,
Speaker 2: probably in the first you know, half of the first quarter,
Speaker 2: whether Iowa can be viable whatsoever. Iowa obviously wants to
Speaker 2: turn it into a rock fight Ohio. Ohio State is
Speaker 2: going to try to impose a track meet on them.
Speaker 2: Can Iowa do the rock fight thing enough to stay
Speaker 2: close and or push it into the fourth quarter?
Speaker 3: We'll see about that.
Speaker 2: There's been games, In fact, I went to one in
Speaker 2: Kinnick Stadium that four or five years ago where Iowa
Speaker 2: was a heavy underdog to Ohio State. Nate Stanley was
Speaker 2: the quarterback Iowa ambush Ohio State. In that game, there
Speaker 2: was multiple pick six as a JT. Barrett and then Stanley.
Speaker 2: They didn't i would did not have to ask Stanley
Speaker 2: to force the ball and stuff like that and then
Speaker 2: put him in a bad situation because the game script
Speaker 2: then flipped into their direction.
Speaker 3: But Iowa's offense, Thomas, as you know.
Speaker 1: Is brutal, brutal, brual, brutal.
Speaker 2: Their offensive line is not good. They're running back town
Speaker 2: his way down, and we know the quarterbacks one of
Speaker 2: the worst quarterbacks in all of the FBS going down
Speaker 2: to the G five. And their receiving course stinks too.
Speaker 2: The only kid that got is really Sam Laporte on offense.
Speaker 2: So you're, i mean, as an Iowa fan, you're you're
Speaker 2: certainly concerned the line is justified. But Iowa there is
Speaker 2: a shot that they could at least impose the rock
Speaker 2: fight thing, And certainly with where you have this thing,
Speaker 2: with the margin of it, you can make an argument
Speaker 2: for Iowa. But that's what I'm going to be digging
Speaker 2: into in my my handicap this week.
Speaker 3: With that game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't know that I was got.
Speaker 1: I think I'm completely with you on this one. I
Speaker 1: don't think that I was going to be able to
Speaker 1: keep this one as close as they need to. But
Speaker 1: twenty nine could be a lot, could be interesting. But
Speaker 1: let's move on to your team here, Kansas going up
Speaker 1: against Baylor. Baylor going to be eight and a half
Speaker 1: point favorites in this one. Baylor, there were so many
Speaker 1: good games yesterday. Did they get the win against BYU?
Speaker 2: I forget well, well, Baylor, they they lost to BUYU
Speaker 2: earlier in the year, thinking overtime, I'm sorry, I'm.
Speaker 1: Thinking of the Arkansas YU game there. Completely ignore me,
Speaker 1: completely ignore me.
Speaker 2: Baylor played West Virginia on Thursday night and they Yeah,
Speaker 2: that's what it was.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: And this is a topical point to this handicap because
Speaker 2: Baylor would have won that game if not for injuries
Speaker 2: suffered during it. They not only lost their best offensive player,
Speaker 2: Blake shape And who was I think Blake Shapin had
Speaker 2: his best career game against West Virginia, even though he
Speaker 2: got knocked out early in the third quarter of that game,
Speaker 2: like he threw for over three hundred yards, which he'd done,
Speaker 2: I think only once or twice before that, but the
Speaker 2: efficiency and everything was there. That's what you were sort
Speaker 2: of hoping for looking at the handicap because West Virginia's
Speaker 2: pass defense.
Speaker 3: Is so bad.
Speaker 2: But Shaping goes down Baylor's backup Kyron Drones, who had
Speaker 2: been the QB three before Jerry Bohannan left and Baylor
Speaker 2: started to shove Jerry Bohannan out the door. But Drones,
Speaker 2: He's a good athlete, but he's incredibly raw as a
Speaker 2: passer right now, not only in terms of reading the
Speaker 2: defense itself, in the accuracy and the plays and stuff
Speaker 2: like that, but also the pocket presence also just general
Speaker 2: game awareness, which manifested the very end of that game,
Speaker 2: their final drive. It's like he didn't realize he only
Speaker 2: needed to get the ball to like the opponent's thirty
Speaker 2: two yard line to try for a game tying field
Speaker 2: goal attempt that would afford, you know, push the game
Speaker 2: to overtime. He was doing things like, you know, scrambling around,
Speaker 2: taking up too much time or air mailing throwaways where
Speaker 2: it took you know, extra time off the clock, et cetera.
Speaker 3: Blake shape and his status is very important.
Speaker 2: And then While they lost their Baylor lost their best
Speaker 2: offensive player in that game. They also lost their best
Speaker 2: defensive player. Sayaki Eka. I hope I'm pronouncing that name correctly.
Speaker 2: He's their planet sized noseguard with three hundred and fifty
Speaker 2: pounds or whatever, and extremely active, you know, like a
Speaker 2: Vince will Fork type or the Danny Shelton type, you know,
Speaker 2: the kid from Washington a couple of years ago.
Speaker 3: He's that kind of a player.
Speaker 2: With him out, that Baylor was much easier as well
Speaker 2: to deal for West Virginia's offense, to deal with their defense,
Speaker 2: we got to check on shape and status. We got
Speaker 2: to check on ECA's status for sure. And Baylor already
Speaker 2: had to these health concerns with their skill talent on offense.
Speaker 2: Uh Tay McWilliams, the guy who is there they're projected
Speaker 2: starting running back coming out of camp, has barely played
Speaker 2: this year.
Speaker 3: We'll see if if they're able to get him back.
Speaker 2: But but one example of some of the injuries that
Speaker 2: that they have had, they also Craig Squirrel Squirrel Williams
Speaker 2: on Thursday against Western Virginia. He also got injured. So
Speaker 2: like they Baylor's had this this this small true freshman
Speaker 2: Richard Reese. This running back has sort of stepped up
Speaker 2: with some of these running back injuries. But now when
Speaker 2: you have like if if if Squirrel Williams can't play
Speaker 2: and Tate McWilliams is not ready to come back yet,
Speaker 2: you'll have a guy uh in in Reese that does
Speaker 2: not have a frame for full college usage yet or
Speaker 2: maybe ever who Baylor may have to thrust into that
Speaker 2: role just because they won't have any depth, And then
Speaker 2: you're you're curious about the shape and thing as well.
Speaker 2: On the Kansas side, Jalen Daniels certainly is not going
Speaker 2: to play. There was an interesting report by I believe
Speaker 2: it was Pete Thamil I hope, I'm I'm, I'm I'm
Speaker 2: remembering this right. I believe it's Pete Theamia that reported this,
Speaker 2: and apologies if I got the reporter wrong.
Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure as him, but he reported on Saturday.
Speaker 2: I believe that Daniels there the earliest possible date that
Speaker 2: he could return.
Speaker 3: It was there. I think it was their.
Speaker 2: First game in November November sixth or like something like that.
Speaker 2: And this winch to Jalen Daniels' point of last week
Speaker 2: when Jalen Daniels quote tweeted the reporter who from the
Speaker 2: Laurence Ternal World, the local newspaper of the Jayhawks, who
Speaker 2: had reported that Daniels was going to miss the rest
Speaker 2: of the season with a separated throwing shoulder, that he'd
Speaker 2: been diagnosed with that, and then Daniel's quote tweeted and
Speaker 2: was like, well, that's news to me. So Thamil's report
Speaker 2: at least gives hope to the idea that that Daniels
Speaker 2: could come back this season. But you're not going to
Speaker 2: see him this week. We're gonna get Jason Bean again.
Speaker 2: Bean has analogous talent to Jay Daniels for sure, and
Speaker 2: he's experienced as well. It's just he is far more inconsistent.
Speaker 2: It all goes back to the decision making with him.
Speaker 2: When he's on the accuracy is there, the timing's on,
Speaker 2: you know, all that sort of stuff, and he has
Speaker 2: the athleticism to augment it. Jason Bean was a track
Speaker 2: star in high school in Texas, arguably the fastest player
Speaker 2: on the Kansas roster, including the secondary, But the decision
Speaker 2: making could come.
Speaker 3: And go with him.
Speaker 2: He'll he'll you know, like once every quarter, so he'll
Speaker 2: have a decision where you're just like, what did you
Speaker 2: see there?
Speaker 3: What was going through your head sort of a thing.
Speaker 1: And you saw that, you saw that last game. But
Speaker 1: full credit to Kansas when he came in and there
Speaker 1: were the times when he had those head scratching decisions,
Speaker 1: but there were also the times when he was really
Speaker 1: good and Kansas clearly felt confident enough in him that
Speaker 1: they didn't turtle up when they were trying to go
Speaker 1: for the lead there, and when they had to play
Speaker 1: aggressive in that game, they kept firing and firing with
Speaker 1: him as their quarterback. Do you think they'll stay aggressive?
Speaker 2: Yeah, selectively aggressive is the way I put it, because
Speaker 2: because Leopold system, you managed to stay efficient while you
Speaker 2: open up opportunities for the explosive plays and that's what
Speaker 2: we saw earlier this season. But yeah, your points well
Speaker 2: taken being sort of facilitated or helped out the Oklahoma
Speaker 2: defense on a couple time beleaguered Oklahoma defense. That was
Speaker 2: sort of the frustrating thing on the Kansas side was
Speaker 2: there was a couple of decisions there that flipped the
Speaker 2: field that you know, again, you don't really know what
Speaker 2: he's seeing, and I mean, you know, you can go
Speaker 2: back to his previous work in previous years, But you
Speaker 2: can also just go back to the TCU game. Jason
Speaker 2: Bean was lights out in that game, barring like three plays,
Speaker 2: one of which turned into an interception. The other couple
Speaker 2: were just as ugly. It's just the result of the
Speaker 2: play wasn't quite as bad. But again just the head
Speaker 2: scratching thing that the consistency for him is going to
Speaker 2: be super important. And how many of those dud plays
Speaker 2: you get, trying to minimize them as much as you can,
Speaker 2: but going up against this Baylor team that is I
Speaker 2: mean the whole depth chart right now, You're you're looking
Speaker 2: at the injury report. You want to see the updates
Speaker 2: on those, but they are a badly beaten up team. However,
Speaker 2: whatever way you slice it, And if Blake Shape isn't starting,
Speaker 2: the drop off from Shape into drones certainly is bigger
Speaker 2: than the dropoff from Daniels to Bean. And then if
Speaker 2: Baylor doesn't have their their planet sized war Daddy in
Speaker 2: the middle in Eka, it's going to be easier for
Speaker 2: Kansas to run, which will increase the efficiency of the
Speaker 2: Kansas offense, which again is going to facilitate the explosive
Speaker 2: plays If Kansas can't be efficient on offense, those explosive
Speaker 2: plays won't be there for him. That's the shoe that
Speaker 2: they're led with. But if they can get that run
Speaker 2: game going, if they can get up and then being
Speaker 2: on the perimeter and stuff like that off the boot legs,
Speaker 2: that's how you open up these explosive play opportunities. We'll
Speaker 2: have to see on ECA status, but it's this is
Speaker 2: a game that could go either way.
Speaker 3: That the open line of this thing.
Speaker 2: I think this is a little bit puffed up considering
Speaker 2: Baylor's health concerns right now. Again, Shape and their best
Speaker 2: offensive player might not play. They have bad problems in
Speaker 2: the running back room right now whoever's gonna be active,
Speaker 2: and their best defensive player, a first round prospect in Eka,
Speaker 2: is also questionable right now. So this is a game
Speaker 2: you have to You're gonna have to look into the
Speaker 2: injury report all week and see on the statuses of
Speaker 2: the kids.
Speaker 3: But at least as.
Speaker 2: Far as what we know right now on Sunday night,
Speaker 2: that line seems a bit inflated for where Baylor is
Speaker 2: as a team and then what we've seen and then
Speaker 2: also where their health is right now.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be an interesting one. I'm looking forward to it.
Speaker 1: But you know what else I'm looking forward to. We
Speaker 1: got LSU going up against ole Miss. Here LSU they
Speaker 1: were able to get it done down in the Swamp
Speaker 1: against the Gators. Now that come home to the Buyo
Speaker 1: where they have to take on an ole Miss team
Speaker 1: that's still seven to oher. The big teams that are
Speaker 1: getting the headlines in the SEC right now, obviously you've
Speaker 1: got Bama, Tennessee and Georgia. This Ole Miss team is
Speaker 1: right up there with them. Do you think that they're
Speaker 1: for real? Are they kind of in a second tier below? Uh?
Speaker 2: I'll say, uh real ish. I don't know if that
Speaker 2: would completely go to the category categorization that you're talking about.
Speaker 2: But I still have my concerns about Mississippi for sure.
Speaker 2: Their their offense has been a bit stop and start.
Speaker 2: Where they've they've sort of there's the stretches where they
Speaker 2: are not putting points on the board have been way
Speaker 2: more prolonged than you would have anticipated in the preseason.
Speaker 3: The the overall tree.
Speaker 2: Top stats haven't looked as bad parcause because lane in
Speaker 2: a couple of these games is poured on at the end.
Speaker 2: Although he didn't decide to do that last Saturday, or
Speaker 2: you know, yesterday when he could have he decided to
Speaker 2: take a knee in that one. But we've seen some
Speaker 2: of these other games he hadn't done that. But you
Speaker 2: still have questions overall about the ole Miss offense. But
Speaker 2: I will say the talent there that we have projected
Speaker 2: of maybe there won't be that big of a drop
Speaker 2: off half Matt corrall Leaves and all the guys that
Speaker 2: they they had before, you know, the last era of
Speaker 2: the Rebels. We thought that this offense was going to
Speaker 2: be better, going to bring in Jackson, start bringing Zach Evans,
Speaker 2: this Judkins kid. Now as you served, you know from
Speaker 2: the beginning of the season, had you serve Ulysses Bentley,
Speaker 2: who we thought would have a bigger role whatever, he's
Speaker 2: turned out to be his stud They have all the
Speaker 2: receivers as well.
Speaker 3: Will that offense start to pick it up? We'll see.
Speaker 2: Lane Kiffin is not amending his play calling strategy whatsoever
Speaker 2: in the meantime as as this new group is sort
Speaker 2: of trying to pick it up. Remember, Lane Kiffin remade
Speaker 2: his roster as much, arguably as especially in the offensive
Speaker 2: side of the Ball as any roster before it in
Speaker 2: the history of college football outside of Lincoln Riley, Like
Speaker 2: Lane Kiffen went out and signed as many guys who
Speaker 2: are going to be starting for the next year as
Speaker 2: we had seen for a sitting head coach prior to that, right,
Speaker 2: like you know, and the rule change is obviously helped
Speaker 2: facilitate this. But Lane Kiffin the portal king, and it
Speaker 2: wasn't that he brought players with him to where he went.
Speaker 2: He just remade that roster as we went. So I'm
Speaker 2: still hopeful that the the ole Miss offense will become
Speaker 2: what the some of its parts say it can be.
Speaker 2: In the meantime, their defense is playing a bit better
Speaker 2: than we thought it was, so they sort of made
Speaker 2: up the ground in that way. But ole Miss is
Speaker 2: on offense, they're still playing at the number one pace
Speaker 2: in the entire country. They're still playing at that that
Speaker 2: breakneck pace, And I think Lane's just hoping that that
Speaker 2: it's eventually gonna that everything's gonna coal last because at
Speaker 2: the point that it does, that's how you can, potentially,
Speaker 2: to your to your first question, get yourself into a
Speaker 2: position where potentially you can take down one of those.
Speaker 3: Those big Tigers of the the SEC.
Speaker 2: But right now, with where the offense is, I I
Speaker 2: don't know that I would say that that they're cable
Speaker 2: of that.
Speaker 1: Well, they might be, and they might have to work
Speaker 1: to take out on one of the big Tigers of
Speaker 1: the SEC, but they're actually getting their laying two points
Speaker 1: in LSU. Can they take up the LSU tires this weekend?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: My spread on that game is Ole Miss minus too,
Speaker 2: So I'm I'm right there on the Vegas line this game.
Speaker 2: I'm going to handicap all week My initial lean would
Speaker 2: probably be towards Ole Mess just because I mean, the
Speaker 2: offense hasn't been consistent, but overall the team has been.
Speaker 2: And then LSU, you've had this team where you see
Speaker 2: some you know, it's like sort of like every other
Speaker 2: week with them a little bit where some of these
Speaker 2: games you get the effort and they look really good,
Speaker 2: like yesterday when they traveled down to Florida and they
Speaker 2: controlled that entire game and they ended up winning by ten,
Speaker 2: but they were leading by more than that for a
Speaker 2: large portion of that game. But then you have these
Speaker 2: other games where it's like like like Brian Kelly was
Speaker 2: lamenting after the Tennessee game, and we now know that
Speaker 2: Tennessee is awesome for sure, but it wasn't Tennessee didn't
Speaker 2: beat him by almost thirty points in Baton Rouge because
Speaker 2: of that. LFU helped them to do that as well.
Speaker 2: You had the fumble of the opening, and then it
Speaker 2: didn't seem like LSU's effort was awesome the rest of
Speaker 2: that game or even the continuity of the strategy, and
Speaker 2: then it started to get away from them, and then
Speaker 2: it started to get ugly with LSU. You can't get
Speaker 2: your finger completely on the motivation of that team, et cetera.
Speaker 2: But coming off of a big win, this would be
Speaker 2: the time for me where I'd sort of leaned the
Speaker 2: other way, especially with an Ole miss team that I'm
Speaker 2: starting to trust a little bit more overall, even though
Speaker 2: I don't completely trust that offense yet, but they have
Speaker 2: the pieces, like I said, and projected them to be
Speaker 2: better in the summer.
Speaker 1: Now, how about this next game that we've got up here,
Speaker 1: It is going to be another banger. Texas and Oklahoma State.
Speaker 1: Okay State, they lost a TCU in that ridiculous overtime
Speaker 1: game forty three to forty. Now they have to come
Speaker 1: back and take on a Texas team that does look
Speaker 1: pretty back. Texas just going to continue on those upwards ascent. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they didn't get though, they didn't get what they were
Speaker 1: looking for versus Bama, but they still looked like a
Speaker 1: good team so far. And Quinn yours is playing ball.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: The yesterday when Texas played Iowa State, it was the
Speaker 2: classic Texas sleepy spot coming off the week where everyone
Speaker 2: says Texas is back, and it was the classic Iowa
Speaker 2: State ambush spot meeting, and we saw it like it
Speaker 2: became a coin flip game at the end of the game.
Speaker 2: I actually think Texas got lucky there. There was It
Speaker 2: wasn't just one call. There was a couple of calls
Speaker 2: at the end of the game or no calls that
Speaker 2: a lot of people thought maybe should have gone the
Speaker 2: other way. And there was the fumble where was Deckers
Speaker 2: his knee down, et cetera. Texas was either way, it's
Speaker 2: flice and Texas was very fortunate to escape with that
Speaker 2: win in a game where they at some points during
Speaker 2: the week they were a seventeen or a seventeen that
Speaker 2: point favorite in the market. I think it closed, you know,
Speaker 2: it's closer to like fifteen, because that then the sharps
Speaker 2: got involved and you know, realized what the spot was
Speaker 2: what it was.
Speaker 3: You would figure at.
Speaker 2: Least playing pop psychologists with the team, and I'll put
Speaker 2: that hat on. You'd figure that you're gonna get a
Speaker 2: more motivated Texas team this week. After the sleepy spot
Speaker 2: and after they almost just blew it against Iowa State,
Speaker 2: you'd figure you would get the better performance this week
Speaker 2: traveling to Oklahoma State. I happen to think that Oklahoma
Speaker 2: State a lot of what they're doing is smoking mirrors
Speaker 2: this team of Oklahoma State. But they're still doing it right.
Speaker 2: Like they outplayed PCU for the large schwath of that game,
Speaker 2: and then it went against them at the very end.
Speaker 2: They ended up losing that one in the overtime. But
Speaker 2: they continue to exceed my expectations in this game. I
Speaker 2: don't think I could back like where the line open
Speaker 2: and where you anticipate it going. You know, it's a
Speaker 2: four and a half. My line on this game is
Speaker 2: Texas minus two. To me, it's closer to a coin flip.
Speaker 2: I can't lay over four points with Texas in this
Speaker 2: spot one way or the other. We'll see what happens
Speaker 2: with the line this week, But for me right now,
Speaker 2: with where it is, it would be Oklahoma State stay away.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I I like the I like the I like
Speaker 1: Okie State in this one too. They've looked like a
Speaker 1: tough team to me. But Texas they've been interesting as well.
Speaker 1: But this I was honestly surprised that this line was
Speaker 1: as low as it is at four and a half.
Speaker 1: And yet even then, you think that they should be
Speaker 1: closer to two. I'm with you, it's Okie State to
Speaker 1: pass for me. Now, how about we got to talk
Speaker 1: about the other team that was involved in that Oklahoma
Speaker 1: State game TCU and Kansas State. Now k State getting
Speaker 1: five points against the horn Frogs, who are undefeated and
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, they're they're the Big twelve champs
Speaker 1: right now if they keep if they keep this up,
Speaker 1: they're gonna be right there. Do you think the TCU
Speaker 1: can get the job done? Are they for real or
Speaker 1: do you think that they're just waiting for one of
Speaker 1: these games where they're gonna slip up? But how do
Speaker 1: you think they can fare against Kansas State? Is five
Speaker 1: point favorites at home?
Speaker 2: Straight up, you'd for sure lean TCU based on what
Speaker 2: you'd seen with where the line is. Vegas dropped this
Speaker 2: right on what my addressed line is. My addressed line
Speaker 2: in this game is TCU minus five point one. It
Speaker 2: opens a TCU minus five, so we're right on on
Speaker 2: that line. These two teams play opposite right like Kansas
Speaker 2: State wants they want to slow the game.
Speaker 3: They want to run the ball more.
Speaker 2: They forced a lot of usage to doce fun that
Speaker 2: they're they're running back and then the quarterback runs around,
Speaker 2: YadA YadA. TCU now they they have they do the
Speaker 2: air raid, but there's a bit of a melding where
Speaker 2: they also have the downhill running game and you have
Speaker 2: the shifty kid in and Keandrey Miller doing it as well.
Speaker 2: But their run game is really good as well. But
Speaker 2: the passing game has become awesome, and that that was
Speaker 2: the problem last year where tc just couldn't throw the ball.
Speaker 2: Max Dugan, What a difference a day, Max, or what
Speaker 2: a difference a year makes, you know, going from Gary
Speaker 2: Patterson and the previous system now to Sonny Dike's in
Speaker 2: the air raid, Max Dugan looks like a totally different
Speaker 2: player and his viability through the air only helps what
Speaker 2: is probably his best not probably, it definitely is his
Speaker 2: best trait of his mobility because he's a tough runner,
Speaker 2: He's an athletic kid. It seems to have an instinct
Speaker 2: for it as well. So I like, right now, as
Speaker 2: far as like you know, a you know, should you
Speaker 2: bet this game early in the week, No, because I,
Speaker 2: like I said, I think this line is right on.
Speaker 3: It's a game that I'm gonna dig into this week.
Speaker 2: Like I said, as far as the straight up thing,
Speaker 2: I would certainly lean TCU right now, But as far
Speaker 2: as the handicap, I'm gonna see what happens with this
Speaker 2: line this week, and then I'm gonna dig it, you know,
Speaker 2: a bit more into the antillary advanced metrics of the
Speaker 2: on field matchup between both these teams.
Speaker 1: Now, the next game that we have up here, Minnesota
Speaker 1: versus Penn State Penn State LANG four in Happy Valley.
Speaker 1: Can the golfers make something happen here? Or is Penn State?
Speaker 1: Penn State feels to me like that team kind of
Speaker 1: like at that ole Miss level. They're not quite one
Speaker 1: of the top teams in the Big Ten. They're right
Speaker 1: below Ohio State and Michigan for me.
Speaker 2: But what do you think, Yeah, I mean this one
Speaker 2: with the opening line here was gonna be interesting to
Speaker 2: me either way in sort of trying to suss out
Speaker 2: what what Vegas and was was either thinking about Tanner
Speaker 2: Morgan's injury the Minnesota quarterback, or what they anticipated the
Speaker 2: market thinking about it, and like I sort of thought
Speaker 2: this line actually, I thought this thing was gonna open
Speaker 2: up higher because my, my, just the line in this
Speaker 2: game is is Penn State minus three point four. But
Speaker 2: that's with both teams at full strength. Tanner Morgan got
Speaker 2: knocked out in the Minnesota got upset by Illinois, yes
Speaker 2: on Saturday, and he went like they, I mean, he
Speaker 2: had to get carted off and then they took him
Speaker 2: to the hospital.
Speaker 3: He was cleared to fly back with the team.
Speaker 2: So Tanner Morgan is back in Minneapolis, but took a
Speaker 2: shot to the head almost assuredly is going to be
Speaker 2: in concussion protocol this week if he is diagnosed or
Speaker 2: if he was diagnosed with an official medical concussion. I
Speaker 2: don't think that news. There's no incentive for PJ. Fleck
Speaker 2: to say that. In fact, I know after the game
Speaker 2: he told the reporters that he you know, I don't
Speaker 2: know any of I don't know any details about Tanner's
Speaker 2: injury yet, whether that's true or not, there's no incentive
Speaker 2: for him to tell the reporters whatever it was. If
Speaker 2: Morgan was indeed diagnosed with the concussion, and if he
Speaker 2: is indeed in.
Speaker 3: The protocol, you would put him at way if he
Speaker 3: to play in this game.
Speaker 2: And if he does not, Minnesota is about to go
Speaker 2: into a gunfight without a gun, sort of, because their
Speaker 2: offense is not passing explosion. They can't generate explosive plays
Speaker 2: with the pass either way, even when everyone's at full strength.
Speaker 2: But keep in mind, this is a team that lost
Speaker 2: Chris Hopman Bell by farther wide receiver one earlier in
Speaker 2: the season. They already weren't a great passing team even
Speaker 2: before that. And now if Tanner Morgan's out and you
Speaker 2: go down to the second string kid who I'm not
Speaker 2: even gonna try to pronounce his name, the kid with
Speaker 2: the Greek last name. He was awful in the Illinois games,
Speaker 2: big part of the reason.
Speaker 3: Why they lost.
Speaker 2: So if if that's the case and Morgan doesn't play
Speaker 2: and you have to go to this red shirt freshman again,
Speaker 2: Minnesota's passing game is not going to be there, which
Speaker 2: will allow Penn State's nasty defense essentially to just stack
Speaker 2: the box against Minnesota and Moebrahim and tried to erase
Speaker 2: mo Ibrahim. Mo Ibrahim came back in the Illinois game.
Speaker 2: He had been withheld from the Purdue one. Some people
Speaker 2: thought he could have played, but he didn't. Fleck withheld him.
Speaker 2: He came back for the Illinois game. He looked fully healthy.
Speaker 2: He was really the only bright spot for Minnesota on
Speaker 2: the entire day. We'll see how he can contend potentially
Speaker 2: with stack boxes in this one. But in lieu of
Speaker 2: Morgan's status right now, with it being so up in
Speaker 2: the air, I'm a bit surprised that this thing only
Speaker 2: opened at minus four. I would have predicted if like beforehand,
Speaker 2: I would have thought more like five and a half, six,
Speaker 2: maybe even six and a half for Penn State, a
Speaker 2: little bit low in lieu of the Morgan thing.
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I'm with you. I think that that's
Speaker 1: gonna be a big question mark and people need to
Speaker 1: keep an eye eye on it. But pretty obvious that
Speaker 1: we're going to see him not playing this week with
Speaker 1: concussion protocol right well.
Speaker 2: To see you know, I mean the Gophers gave out
Speaker 2: zero lessons, zero information by design, most most teams don't,
Speaker 2: so we don't like at this time sitting here, we
Speaker 2: don't have any information about that. We don't know what
Speaker 2: Morgan was told by the doctors, We don't know what
Speaker 2: he is diagnosed with, we don't know what timeline he
Speaker 2: was given, and the coaching staff is not going to
Speaker 2: apprize us that it's It's one of those things. During
Speaker 2: the week, we're just gonna have to pay attention. Hope
Speaker 2: we get some you know, get a handout from Fleck,
Speaker 2: you know, like of a of a status updated Tanner
Speaker 2: Morgan that has some validity to it and not a
Speaker 2: not a Sam Pittman kJ Jefferson update from a couple
Speaker 2: of weeks ago, where lots of I'm not trying to
Speaker 2: pick on Sam Pittman because a lot of coaches just
Speaker 2: all right lie about the health status of their injured quarterbacks.
Speaker 2: But for this game, if you're interested in betting on Minnesota,
Speaker 2: you need to know if the status is TAYL. Morgan,
Speaker 2: because you cannot beat again on You cannot bet on
Speaker 2: Minnesota only getting four points in this game if Tannam
Speaker 2: Morgan is not going to play. You need to feel
Speaker 2: pretty confident about that that for this one right now
Speaker 2: where we're sitting, this is Penn State or stay away,
Speaker 2: and the Morgan status will inform the rest of it.
Speaker 1: A couple other games that I want to get to
Speaker 1: here before we head out for and of course we
Speaker 1: have to talk about the big one here.
Speaker 3: Well, they're no.
Speaker 1: Longer the Kings. Tennessee saw to that for now Alabama
Speaker 1: and Mississippi State. Bama gets laying twenty two and a
Speaker 1: half points against Mississippi State here in this one, and
Speaker 1: should we just expect.
Speaker 3: To bounce back.
Speaker 1: Let's face it, this Bama team has not looked as
Speaker 1: sharp as they have in previous seasons yet. Bryce Young
Speaker 1: is still a little banged up. But Bama normally feels inevitable,
Speaker 1: and this year they have not felt that way to
Speaker 1: me for sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there, you know, and we talked about this, you
Speaker 2: know before the Tennessee game. Their offensive line is down,
Speaker 2: their receiving corps is down, and then when you know,
Speaker 2: when Young is compromised, and he definitely was against Tennessee.
Speaker 2: Although gutty, gutty kid, I like a couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 2: I would have said one hundred percent. Bryce Young doesn't
Speaker 2: play in that game with the injury that I've been
Speaker 2: told that he had ac joints brain of your throwing shoulder.
Speaker 2: It's always a two week plus injury. But Bryce Young
Speaker 2: came back with only missing one game. So credit to him.
Speaker 2: Tough kid. That is something that is going to be
Speaker 2: mentioned during his NFL evaluation that he toughed it out
Speaker 2: to come back and play in that enormous game for
Speaker 2: Alabama and didn't look terrible at all. Right, it wasn't
Speaker 2: the Bryce Young at the peak of his powers, for sure,
Speaker 2: but he gave them the fighting chance where especially I
Speaker 2: mean I was saying this last week, but especially in hindsight,
Speaker 2: it was proven sure if you had Jalen Milroe in there,
Speaker 2: Tennessee was winning that game by two touchdowns or more.
Speaker 2: I mean, like Alabama wouldn't have been able to literally
Speaker 2: do anything through the air, and that's the only way
Speaker 2: that you can attack the Tennessee defense. Bryce Young's status
Speaker 2: knowing trying to sort of read between the lines of
Speaker 2: the quotes you're getting from the Alabama side to see
Speaker 2: what percentage does he is very instructive to this handicap
Speaker 2: on either side of it. Alabama said after the game
Speaker 2: from I mean like Young and then the coaches, the
Speaker 2: whole party line was Bryce suffered no ill effects from
Speaker 2: this game whatsoever. Like he's you know, he's only gonna
Speaker 2: get healthier from here going out. I don't know about that.
Speaker 2: We know that Nick Saban is happier to lie about
Speaker 2: this stuff than almost anyone. So again we'll have to see.
Speaker 2: You're gonna have to read between the lines a little
Speaker 2: bit of this one because Bryce young status is so
Speaker 2: important to that team. He definitely gonna play. It's just
Speaker 2: what you know, are you gonna get ninety eight percent? Brazing,
Speaker 2: You're gonna get eighty two percent? Bryce Young, were in
Speaker 2: between whatever, knowing that you have the down offensive line,
Speaker 2: in the down receiving core whatever. On the Missipi State side,
Speaker 2: it seems that well, well the market in Vegas that
Speaker 2: the folks that drop these lines seems like they're still
Speaker 2: giving Alabama the tax and the credit on the spread.
Speaker 2: It seems like they are doing the opposite with Missippi State.
Speaker 2: After Missippi State was installed as the road favorite in
Speaker 2: Lexington yesterday, when you know, we didn't know if Leaves
Speaker 2: was going to play initially early on in the week
Speaker 2: and then later in the week it you know he
Speaker 2: was going to play then whatever, But Missiby State still
Speaker 2: closed as the favorite and Kentucky control most of that
Speaker 2: game was not a great game for Missippi State. They
Speaker 2: did not acquit themselves. Well, the market is certainly going
Speaker 2: to be out on them. I don't think that game
Speaker 2: has any sort of predictive value as far as like
Speaker 2: depressing a line like this going forward. My justed line
Speaker 2: in this game is Alabama minus sixteen point three. So
Speaker 2: between that and the opening line, I'm sure when a
Speaker 2: discrepancy of just a tick over six points of value
Speaker 2: on the Missippi State side, that's the way that I
Speaker 2: would lean on this game for sure. Early on, if
Speaker 2: you have a full strength Bryce Young becomes a little
Speaker 2: bit different because then Alabama can put points on the board.
Speaker 2: Potentially it will. But the other thing I'll say is
Speaker 2: the thing that you want to attack on the Missippi
Speaker 2: State defense not the pass passing. It's the run defense
Speaker 2: of theirs. That's what you're so I expect Jumior Gibbs
Speaker 2: to have a big game, but with Bryce Young again,
Speaker 2: with the status and everything else that I mentioned with
Speaker 2: Mississippi State's pass defense, they could be able to lock
Speaker 2: him down a little bit, perhaps better than Tennessee Dead.
Speaker 2: So right now, with where that line is, I lean
Speaker 2: the Missippi State side.
Speaker 1: All Right, one more game that I want to ask
Speaker 1: you about here, certainly not one of the big contests
Speaker 1: with heavyweight teams here, San Diego State and Nevada are
Speaker 1: going to be playing against each other. And when I
Speaker 1: was entering the numbers for the for US and our
Speaker 1: rundown here, I had to go back and check this
Speaker 1: one three times just to make sure it wasn't a typo.
Speaker 1: The total in this game, I know we normally talk
Speaker 1: about sides, is the one total I want to talk
Speaker 1: about because it's at thirty six for a college football game.
Speaker 1: Is this I get that these two teams are bad,
Speaker 1: but I mean, no one in their right mind has
Speaker 1: beenting under thirty six. But do you think that this
Speaker 1: total is where it should be?
Speaker 2: Well, so mine was forty nine and a half, but
Speaker 2: again that's not accounting for the injuries. Like both these
Speaker 2: teams at full strength, right and they're not specifically on
Speaker 2: the San Diego State side. Now, San Diego State had
Speaker 2: the bye last week, so we need to recheck in
Speaker 2: on the status of some.
Speaker 3: Of these guys.
Speaker 2: But the last game San Diego State played, their quarterback
Speaker 2: room was so decimated by injuries they had to move
Speaker 2: a kid from safety to quarterback that week to start
Speaker 2: against I think it was Hawaii the week before last.
Speaker 2: Maiden Jalen Maiden, I believe his name, and he had
Speaker 2: come over. He had played quarterback early on his career,
Speaker 2: actually ironically at Missippi State, you know team you were
Speaker 2: just talking about, and then it transferred over to San
Speaker 2: Diego State.
Speaker 3: He Missippi stated had been like, you're not a quarterback, and.
Speaker 2: So he had gone to San Diego State and then
Speaker 2: he was gonna, you know, try to make his football
Speaker 2: career going forward as a safety. But then it was
Speaker 2: so bad at quarterback. They'd be like, Maiden, we need
Speaker 2: you to play quarterback. He did okay against Hawaii's defense,
Speaker 2: but Hawaii's defense is low level FCS quality.
Speaker 3: I think it would be fair to say this one
Speaker 3: against Nevada.
Speaker 2: I mean Nevada, it's more or less the same, but
Speaker 2: it's the quality opponent.
Speaker 3: Nevada.
Speaker 2: We've seen them now multiple times against really poor competition,
Speaker 2: have struggled to put up points last night, it was
Speaker 2: against Hawaii.
Speaker 3: That was the late game.
Speaker 2: Hawaii upset Nevada, and a big part of the reasons
Speaker 2: was because Nevada couldn't move the ball. Nevada shockingly, even
Speaker 2: though Nevada's best offensive players to Atawa, they're running back,
Speaker 2: they were struggling to run the ball.
Speaker 3: The way they were generating forward movement.
Speaker 2: Was just dumping the ball off to Tatawa in the
Speaker 2: receiving game and then having him run. I don't have
Speaker 2: the stats in front of me, but he had like
Speaker 2: six catches for like seventy yards. That was like the
Speaker 2: bulk of Nevada's yardage for the game. Nevada's going to
Speaker 2: have to figure that out. San Diego State's defense is
Speaker 2: way better than Hawaii's in San Diego State going back
Speaker 2: years and years and years, has always had a good
Speaker 2: run defense. So so Nevada's gonna have to figure that
Speaker 2: thing out. But then on the other side of San
Speaker 2: Diego State, you're gonna have to look into the health
Speaker 2: of their quarterback room. They're gonna get Burmester back, if
Speaker 2: not that one of the backups, or is it going
Speaker 2: to be we're playing the safety at quarterback again, and
Speaker 2: that one could go any different way.
Speaker 3: Like the Hawaii thing.
Speaker 2: I think that probably went about as good as San
Speaker 2: Diego State could hope for and they sort of ground
Speaker 2: out this very close win.
Speaker 3: You don't want to be doing that in more games
Speaker 3: than that.
Speaker 2: So we'll see if San Diego State is able to
Speaker 2: start one of the guys that began the season as
Speaker 2: a quarterback, they're certainly gonna do that.
Speaker 3: That would put in jeopardy the under.
Speaker 2: But if San Diego State trotting out the safety again
Speaker 2: and they're playing this Nevada team that we know can't
Speaker 2: move the ball, and Nevada is their best thing is
Speaker 2: gonna be going into the strength of the San Diego
Speaker 2: State defense.
Speaker 3: That's why this number is as low as it is.
Speaker 2: Also could justify an under bet, so you got to
Speaker 2: check on the status there.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be an interesting one. I look forward to
Speaker 1: that rock fight. I want to see some bad college
Speaker 1: football this week, for especially.
Speaker 3: Especially the late night games. You know, like you watch
Speaker 3: the games all day and you're.
Speaker 2: You know, it's it's like you go to Thanksgiving and
Speaker 2: you just stuff yourself all day, and then on Saturday night,
Speaker 2: like I'm always sort of ready to pass out, but
Speaker 2: I can't give up college football excuse I know it's
Speaker 2: still on. So I have a TV in my room,
Speaker 2: so I always turned the TV on and then shut
Speaker 2: the It's always the Hawaii game, so I'll just watch.
Speaker 3: That in bed until I pass out or whatever.
Speaker 2: Having these games as the late late games I always
Speaker 2: watch of and it's like, I actually sort of like
Speaker 2: the crappy basement games that the garbage games or whatever. Yeah,
Speaker 2: and the Battle Color out of State was was fabulous
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago, and this one should be
Speaker 2: good in that same bay as well.
Speaker 3: For sure.
Speaker 1: It's your impractical Jokers and George Lopez late night TV
Speaker 1: where nothing else is on and you're just desperate for anything,
Speaker 1: and you're like, let's go, we're watching this right now.
Speaker 1: But thor, if people want to watch some good college
Speaker 1: football analysis, they're not done here, they can head on over. Well,
Speaker 1: they have to wait a couple days, but they can
Speaker 1: head on over and watch you and Scott Bogman on
Speaker 1: our Wednesday preview show, and then of course they can
Speaker 1: also follow up with you Saturday morning, bright and early
Speaker 1: at seven am Eastern seven am Pacific time, where you
Speaker 1: and Mike Mike Farrell are giving away your best picks
Speaker 1: for the Saturday Slate on our final on their Day
Speaker 1: of Breakdown, and of course they can follow you at
Speaker 1: four KU on Twitter as well. Thor my friend, it's
Speaker 1: been a pleasure. Let's go Orange this week in Rock
Speaker 1: Chalk Jayhawk. We'll see you guys next week