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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing.

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Speaker 3: As we're saying, it's a cash touchdown that fall.

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Speaker 4: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to wind.

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Speaker 5: That's incredible, big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 5: All right, this is the ultimate combation.

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Speaker 2: If you want to.

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Speaker 4: And we are underway.

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 5: I'm Jill Glanton. I'm joined by Evan Abrams. Each and

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Speaker 5: every week he is our research director here at the

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Speaker 5: Action Network. We're going to dive into all of the

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Speaker 5: Sunday NFL action for week six. Brandon Anderson will have

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Speaker 5: his hot reads later in the show, and Patrick Everson

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Speaker 5: for Vegas Insider will give us an update on these

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Speaker 5: sportsbooks in Vegas and how they fared this NFL Sunday.

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Speaker 5: But first, Evan, let's talk about football Cowboys Chargers. Cowboys

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Speaker 5: are favored by one and a half with one of

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Speaker 5: the higher totals of the week over under at fifty one.

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Speaker 5: And I'm looking at this total, Levan, even though we

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Speaker 5: had a lot of unders this week. We'll talk about

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Speaker 5: that more in a minute. This is a game where

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Speaker 5: I think the Chargers could put up points. I mean,

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Speaker 5: when you blitz Herbert, He's been fantastic in his career

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Speaker 5: with facing the blitz. That negates part of the allure

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Speaker 5: of this Cowboys defense. But speaking of defense, the Chargers defense,

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Speaker 5: they don't really stop anybody either, right, especially in the secondary.

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Speaker 5: Most of the passing yards or most passing yards allowed

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Speaker 5: per game. But their O line is healthy, they can

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Speaker 5: protect Herbert a bit better. I'll be honest, I'm not

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Speaker 5: gonna bet a side on this one. I mean, obviously

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Speaker 5: I'm a Cowboys fan, so I'm a little biased, but

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Speaker 5: I will say this, if you like the under, that

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Speaker 5: means that you should probably bet Dallas because that Dallas

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Speaker 5: defense showed up. They cause turnovers. I don't think the

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Speaker 5: Cowboys can win in a shootout. They're not really built

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Speaker 5: that way. So I think if you like the Chargers

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Speaker 5: in this spot, then you should also like the over.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I like that.

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Speaker 6: So Chargers in the over, Dallas and the under. I

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Speaker 6: kind of agree with you. I'm not huge on any

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Speaker 6: side in this game, talking about some of those first

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Speaker 6: touchdown anytime touchdown, I'm just I'm in love with Jerald

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Speaker 6: Deverett and Donald Parnham, So Parham, I would go with

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Speaker 6: them probably split you know, half unit or so there.

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Speaker 6: And I kind of like Don a little more five

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Speaker 6: to two against Everett and red zone targets, but you know,

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Speaker 6: a little bit of a less of a snap decrease there.

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Speaker 6: But I still like Parnham there. And here's a tip

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Speaker 6: for you. But I found this in bet Labs. We

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Speaker 6: have you know, first half system second half systems. So

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Speaker 6: if the Chargers lead at the half, history would say

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Speaker 6: to bet the Cowboys. Here's the numbers. Wild Justin Herbert

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Speaker 6: is seven twenty four and two against the second half

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Speaker 6: spread when leading at the half. He's even zero to

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Speaker 6: three this season. So out of two hundred and thirteen

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Speaker 6: quarterbacks in two thousand and five, he's two hundred and eleventh.

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Speaker 6: Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan the other two that are

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Speaker 6: just below him.

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Speaker 5: I think from a perspective, if I'm looking at touchdown scores,

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Speaker 5: I think it's Michael Gallup or nobody really, just the

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Speaker 5: way the odds are based today, like par M and

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Speaker 5: Gerald Leverett, they're getting a premium right now on their

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Speaker 5: touchdown score rods like Parham at around plus three to

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Speaker 5: fifty almost just seems like crazy when you knew that

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Speaker 5: he was around plus eight hundred at the start of

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Speaker 5: the year, but gallup. I mean, he's second on the

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Speaker 5: team in targets, second on the team in a dodd

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Speaker 5: eighteen targets over his last three games. He hasn't gotten

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Speaker 5: a touchdown yet, but decent odds given this high total

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Speaker 5: for the game, chance for lots of touchdowns. But on

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Speaker 5: the Chargers side, I think we got to take a

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Speaker 5: look at Justin Herbert man. He's around plus five hundred,

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Speaker 5: and I think running Herbert is back. He was dealing

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Speaker 5: with that rib injury all of last year. He's got

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Speaker 5: three rushing touchdowns and four games already this year five

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Speaker 5: red zone carries. Just to put that in perspective. He

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Speaker 5: only had six last year. Their O line is playing well.

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Speaker 5: They've got Austin Eckler back who could maybe be a

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Speaker 5: little bit of a decoy. And I mean, for what

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Speaker 5: it's worth, the Cowboys have also allowed the fifth most

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Speaker 5: rushing yards to quarterbacks this year as well, So again,

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Speaker 5: a quarterback in primetime touchdown, that is what I'm going

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Speaker 5: to be looking at all right now, Let's look at

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Speaker 5: the Sunday games. Two teams on buy this week, the

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Speaker 5: Packers and the Steelers favorites go nine to four straight

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Speaker 5: up and against the spread entering Sunday Night Football. But

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Speaker 5: again another week of totals going under ten to two

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Speaker 5: and one another underweek, Evan, only week two now, with

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Speaker 5: this being a big week for.

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Speaker 6: Over so far this season, yeah, crazy. So we're fifty four,

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Speaker 6: thirty six and one at sixty percent to the under

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Speaker 6: for the entire year entering Sunday Night Football. That is

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Speaker 6: the second best start for unders through week six since

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Speaker 6: two thousand and five.

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Speaker 2: And here's the hook.

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Speaker 6: The best start was last year, So unders are actually

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Speaker 6: one sixty two to one fifteen and two through six

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Speaker 6: weeks over the last three seasons, so early in the year,

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Speaker 6: last three years best start to unders in our database.

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Speaker 2: So unders lately have just been absolutely crushing.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and we saw that with touchdown scores as well, Evan.

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Speaker 5: We talked about this off air, but last week after

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Speaker 5: Week five last year was the lowest amount of touchdown

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Speaker 5: scored in a five year stretch. Well, this year was

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Speaker 5: ten touchdowns less than last year after Week five. So

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Speaker 5: again we're just seeing way less scoring right now in

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Speaker 5: the NFL and public sides. Also, they go seven to

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Speaker 5: five against the spread entering Sunday night football.

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Speaker 6: Yes, so when you look at the betting public, so

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Speaker 6: that's fifty one percent of tickets are higher. They are

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Speaker 6: fifty one, thirty two and three against spread entering Sunday

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Speaker 6: night football. That is the most profitable start for the

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Speaker 6: public through week six since two thousand and five, and

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Speaker 6: it's actually been five hundred or better against the spread

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Speaker 6: in all six weeks. When looking just specifically at Week six,

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Speaker 6: it's probably important to note San.

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Speaker 2: Francisco lost, Philly lost.

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Speaker 6: Those were the two biggest sides today public sides so

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Speaker 6: and both went down massive for the books, massive for parlays,

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Speaker 6: big for teasers. But if you look at it, Miami, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Rams, Minnesota, Detroit,

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Speaker 6: all public teams all covered, so overall still running hot.

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Speaker 5: Well, let's talk about that public team, specifically the Eagles.

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Speaker 5: The Eagles lose outright to the New York Jets. The

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Speaker 5: Jets win twenty to fourteen. Eagles lose the six and

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Speaker 5: a half point favorites and the underhits of forty two.

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Speaker 2: And a half.

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Speaker 5: Evan, what a game man, Jets. They beat the Eagles

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Speaker 5: for the first time in franchise history, which to me,

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Speaker 5: I thought that was probably one of the more shocking

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Speaker 5: stats that I read after the game. But we can't

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Speaker 5: talk about this game without talking about the turnovers. Three

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Speaker 5: interceptions from Jalen Hurtz, a fumble from DeAndre Swift like

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Speaker 5: for the Eagles, like the Jets had both of their

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Speaker 5: starting quarters out today too. Sauce Gardner was out DJ

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Speaker 5: Reid and the Jets. They really contained the run better

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Speaker 5: than any defense I've seen on this Eagles team. Only

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Speaker 5: eighty five rushing yards for the Eagles, only six first

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Speaker 5: rushing touch first downs. Rather, they averaged twelve first downs

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Speaker 5: per game. And according to the stats an Info, Jalen

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Speaker 5: Hurts was pressured on a season high forty percent of

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Speaker 5: his dropbacks and pressure twenty times total. The twenty times

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Speaker 5: is his most as a starter. That's thirty six games

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Speaker 5: including the playoffs.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's just three interceptions for her. Swift goes ten

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Speaker 6: to seventeen. Philly loses the turnover battle for nothing. It's

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Speaker 6: just really hard to win those games. But I look

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Speaker 6: at it from the Jets point of view, like they've

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Speaker 6: faced six teams so six entering the season. Six teams

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Speaker 6: had double digit win totals. The Jets have faced three

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Speaker 6: of them. They're two to one and three and zero

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Speaker 6: against the spread. Their defense has shown up. They've done

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Speaker 6: a good job. And if you think about it, allowing

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Speaker 6: fourteen to Philly, twenty three to k C, sixteen to Buffalo,

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Speaker 6: like they've gotten themselves into this spot. And now they

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Speaker 6: have a bye, then they face the Giants and then

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Speaker 6: they face the Chargers. You've got maybe a few winnable

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Speaker 6: games coming up. Your schedule does get easier. So and

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Speaker 6: listen Zach Wilson, no interceptions, no touchdowns, just keeps you

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Speaker 6: in the game. And I really feel like through Denver,

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Speaker 6: through this game, even in the Chiefs game, he's looked formidable,

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Speaker 6: and I think it keeps.

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Speaker 2: Them really in all these games.

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Speaker 6: And then again down top two corners but still able to,

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Speaker 6: you know, kind of rattle Philly, as you said, through

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Speaker 6: the pressure. So interesting. Here's here's a fun number. Simon

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Speaker 6: Hunter kind of got me onto this, so I looked

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Speaker 6: it up prid of last week. So the Eagles are

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Speaker 6: now eleven and two first half money line last thirteen games.

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Speaker 6: Hurts is twenty three, fourteen and three in his career

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Speaker 6: in that spot. But the big number since it started

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Speaker 6: last year, Eagles are eighteen four and one first half

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Speaker 6: money lines. That's the most first half money lines wins

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Speaker 6: in the NFL. So really start fast and they faded

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Speaker 6: in the second half here, but crazy.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, they led fourteen to three in the second quarter,

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Speaker 5: they didn't score the rest of the game. And Hurts

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Speaker 5: his interception. That was the seventh of the year. He

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Speaker 5: only had six all of last year. So if you're

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Speaker 5: sitting there with a you know, Hurts MVP ticket or

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Speaker 5: even an Eagle Super Bowl ticket, like I wouldn't feel great.

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Speaker 5: Maybe that was the loss that kind of just reminds them, Hey,

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Speaker 5: this is the NFL. You could still lose any given Sunday.

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Speaker 2: And also it's a.

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Speaker 6: Good regroup next week You're at home against Miami on

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Speaker 6: Sunday night football, right like it's the game of the

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Speaker 6: year type of situation. Maybe you did look ahead this

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Speaker 6: Jets team a little bit for whatever reason, but that's your.

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Speaker 2: Game of the year for them at least, so good

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Speaker 2: forward stick.

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Speaker 5: For them, absolutely, And the Browns game of the year

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Speaker 5: was their win over the forty nine Ers today. Brown's

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Speaker 5: win nineteen to seventeen Niners lose outright is nine and

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Speaker 5: a half point favorites and the under depending on what

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Speaker 5: you've got. If you got a thirty six or a

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Speaker 5: thirty six and a half, it either pushed or it

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Speaker 5: went under. But the alarming trend I believe I think

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Speaker 5: we need to talk about is now Perty and the

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Speaker 5: San Francisco forty nine ers in Perty starts or eight

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Speaker 5: to zero against the spread at home, but just two

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Speaker 5: and four against the spread on the road.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think it has at least if

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Speaker 6: you watch the game today, Cleveland's defense was something completely different,

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Speaker 6: and also the injuries, right, I think it's hard to

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Speaker 6: not talk about. It's really hard not to talk about

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Speaker 6: CMC debo Trent Williams. There was just all over, at

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Speaker 6: least mostly the offensive side of the ball. San Francisco

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Speaker 6: fell apart, and you know, Perty still found Let's just

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Speaker 6: be clear about something.

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Speaker 2: He got them into field goal range. They should have

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Speaker 2: won the game.

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Speaker 6: They should have hit the field goal, and we should

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Speaker 6: be talking about the fact that Cleveland played great, Cleveland

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Speaker 6: covered the number and San Francisco got the win, like

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Speaker 6: that's like the most likely scenario and he missed so

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Speaker 6: they get the loss.

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Speaker 2: We understand that.

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Speaker 6: But Purdy did his job, and that's really from a

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Speaker 6: Shanahan point of view, all you can ask for. Got

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Speaker 6: him into range, got the field goal set up. But yeah,

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Speaker 6: Cleveland gets the win. You know, fifteen consecutive wins for

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Speaker 6: the forty nine ers snaps. But hey, Christian McCaffrey gets

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Speaker 6: his touchdown, so his streak continues.

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Speaker 5: And yeah, yeah, he scored again at minus one sixty five.

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Speaker 5: Like now at this point, you'd be up three and

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Speaker 5: a half units if you bet his touchdown prop in

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Speaker 5: each game. But I think and again opening score touchdown

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Speaker 5: as well. Brown's defense, they give up that first touchdown

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Speaker 5: to McCaffrey, not really much else the rest of the

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Speaker 5: game because those injuries just started to pile up. Even PJ.

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Speaker 5: Walker tried to give that game away. There was a

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Speaker 5: late interception with five minutes to go. He is a

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Speaker 5: zero percent threat offensively, so even when they got in

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Speaker 5: the red zone, he still took multiple sacks. So that's

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Speaker 5: why the Niners were still in that game because of

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Speaker 5: their defense. But again, it's just attrition and that is

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Speaker 5: literally what happened in that game where they're so top

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Speaker 5: heavy because of those injuries that they don't really have

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Speaker 5: a guy to replace that and replace that kind of

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Speaker 5: production in that offense.

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Speaker 6: Cleveland next week's at the Colts, and Cleveland's only laying

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Speaker 6: two points. And if you look at Cleveland's defense, they've

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Speaker 6: allowed one thousand and two yards. It's the lowest through

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Speaker 6: this many games since the seventy one Ravens. Okay, their

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Speaker 6: opponents are converting just twenty three percent of first downs,

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Speaker 6: lowest in the NFL. San Francisco was three of twelve today.

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Speaker 4: I kind of like it.

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Speaker 6: If they're gonna face Minshew next week, maybe one and

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Speaker 6: a half. I mean, listen, you don't know who the

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Speaker 6: quarterback is, right, I think we're gonna assume Watson's gonna

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Speaker 6: be out. But I think it's a decent spot. I

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Speaker 6: think Cleveland as a whole is just a good team.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, their defense can definitely keep them in games. And

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Speaker 5: a game where there was some defense on display was

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Speaker 5: definitely Seahawks Bengals, where the Bengals equale out win seventeen

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Speaker 5: to thirteen. They do cover as two and a half

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Speaker 5: point favorites or three point favorites if you bet them

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Speaker 5: earlier in the week, but the under hits forty five

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Speaker 5: and a half. You're gonna hear that a lot today.

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Speaker 5: By the way, the under hits in a lot of

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Speaker 5: these games. But Joe Burrow moves to twenty five eleven

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Speaker 5: and one against the spread against teams outside of the

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Speaker 5: AFC North, where he is five hundred in the division.

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Speaker 6: To me, it's probably a massive win for the Bengals

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Speaker 6: just because they get back to five hundred, they enter

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Speaker 6: the by and then they've got San Francisco in San

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Speaker 6: Francisco's We just talked about how good they are at

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Speaker 6: home and then Buffalo on Sunday Night football. This was

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Speaker 6: a must win, like you just you couldn't lose this

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Speaker 6: game at home against Seattle, And honestly, we could talk

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Speaker 6: about him more in a second. They should have lost,

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Speaker 6: Like Seattle had multiple opportunities at many different times to

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Speaker 6: take the lead in this game. And to me, Burrow

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Speaker 6: just doesn't seem still there's something off right, Like this

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Speaker 6: season's half. Yeah, it's like half, Like he's running at

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Speaker 6: full speed. We understand that, we saw that in pregame.

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Speaker 6: It was everyone was talking about it. But he's still

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Speaker 6: two of fourteen passing on twenty plus yards downfield. You know,

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Speaker 6: all but two of his completions were inside ten yards.

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Speaker 6: Today his third game below two hundred yards passing. He

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Speaker 6: only had one last year. So he was good first

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Speaker 6: half and something was just off in the second half,

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Speaker 6: which kind of you know, left Seattle still in the

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Speaker 6: game the entire time. So they're in the division. Baltimore

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Speaker 6: is still the favorite, but e sut for grabs.

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Speaker 5: Oh if I'm a Seahawks better though, I'm sick because

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Speaker 5: they got three cracks at it to convert and they

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Speaker 5: could not score. And again it's just one of those games.

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Speaker 5: But also you can't take a sack on Worth down

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Speaker 5: to end the game like the O line obviously didn't

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Speaker 5: do them any favors, but again that was one of

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Speaker 5: the things where if I'm I'm a Seahawks better, that

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Speaker 5: game was right there for the taking and the Bengals

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Speaker 5: escaped with a decent win. There and Evan more memories

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Speaker 5: are made when you're there for live NFL action and

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Speaker 5: best view of those pivotal plays and if your plans change.

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Speaker 5: your team's colors. Fine tickets today at ticketmaster dot com

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Speaker 5: slash NFL. The Action Network podcast is presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 5: Gambling problem called on eight hundred Gambler. Now time for

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Speaker 5: the hot Reid from our own Brandon Anderson. Brandon, what

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Speaker 5: do you have us looking for? At early week seven.

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Speaker 3: Lines Hot Rap seventy on ice rights, ice cream, Hosluda

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Speaker 3: Radars nineteen seven nineteen hoy soultrade hot.

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Speaker 7: All right, Week seven, Hot Reid. We did not do

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Speaker 7: well last week oh and two on our picks. Hey,

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Speaker 7: we got colv on both picks. We just missed the

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Speaker 7: picks Colts and Seahawks in comes through for us. But

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Speaker 7: seven to three now on the season on the hot red.

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Speaker 7: We're gonna get it back next week. We're gonna get

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Speaker 7: ugly this week. A couple of unders on some ugly,

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Speaker 7: low scoring games. So if we're doing ugly, we're doing

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Speaker 7: low scoring. Let's start out right away at Thursday night.

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Speaker 7: Give me the Jaguars and Saints under forty two and

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Speaker 7: a half, already dropping a little bit. Now, look we're

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Speaker 7: going against the Jaguars a bit again. Here. They seem

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Speaker 7: to do just fine coming home from London.

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Speaker 5: That was the spot we talked about.

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Speaker 7: But you dig into it.

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Speaker 5: A little bit.

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Speaker 7: They got gifted and early touchdown. Colts end up turned

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Speaker 7: the ball over six times in that game. Jacksonville actually

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Speaker 7: only had two hundred and thirty three yards under four

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Speaker 7: yards of play. They didn't really play it that well.

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Speaker 7: The Colts just kind of gifted them that game. Gardner

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Speaker 7: Minjew was just awful. The defense though does look for real.

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Speaker 7: They were eleventh in DV during Sunday if they're probably

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Speaker 7: gonna be top ten now they look good and the

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Speaker 7: Saints defense looks even better. The Saints lost to the Texans,

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Speaker 7: but I think they were the better team in that game.

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Speaker 7: They actually shut down a pretty good Houston offense pretty

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Speaker 7: much the entire second half. Now they were number four

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Speaker 7: in dvaight defensively New Orleans, and I think they probably

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Speaker 7: move out to two. So we've got two defensive teams here.

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Speaker 7: That's what Jacksonville has become this season. And that London

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Speaker 7: thing it did not work out for is but look

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Speaker 7: at the spot. This is for Jacksonville. They played two

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Speaker 7: weeks in a row in London, they came home, they

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Speaker 7: took care of the Colts. Credit where it's due. They've

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Speaker 7: won all three of those games. Now it's a short week.

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Speaker 7: Thursday night road trip to New Orleans is a brutal,

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Speaker 7: brutal scheduling spot. When not surprised me at all to

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Speaker 7: see them come out a little bit flat. We're not

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Speaker 7: necessarily picking against them here, so there's a little bit

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Speaker 7: of a buffer. But I do think that they struggled

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Speaker 7: to score and get into a flow. Here Saints' games

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Speaker 7: this season. Here's the totals. Thirty one, thirty seven, thirty five,

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Speaker 7: thirty five, thirty four, thirty three. Those are all way

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Speaker 7: under this forty two and a half number, average thirty

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Speaker 7: four point two points per game, six and zero to

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Speaker 7: this under by more than a touchdown. This total was

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Speaker 7: forty five on the season. Look ahead forty three Sunday morning,

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Speaker 7: forty two and a half. Now already some forty two

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Speaker 7: is out there. I think it's gonna keep slipping down.

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Speaker 7: So Primetime unders sixty percent to the under last four years,

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Speaker 7: already twelve and six this season. Home underdog under sixty

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Speaker 7: one percent last two years, already sixty three percent this year.

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Speaker 7: And if we get there, this one's starting to creep

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Speaker 7: towards where you might hit forty year below. And I

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Speaker 7: love my Thursday Night forty year belows seventeen and four

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Speaker 7: to the under since twenty ten. So Jaguars Saints under

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Speaker 7: forty two and a half. Let's hope that one keeps dropping.

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Speaker 7: Get the CLV all you can, and then we'll go

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Speaker 7: to Sunday for when that's even lower. Give me the

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Speaker 7: Browns and the Colts under forty and a half man

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Speaker 7: Browns look for real, at least on defense. Here they

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Speaker 7: are third string quarterback pg A Walker. They take down

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Speaker 7: the mighty unbeaten forty nine Ers. Defense held the forty

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Speaker 7: nine Ers to seventeen points. This is a Niners team

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Speaker 7: that scored thirty points or more all five games, thirty

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Speaker 7: three and a half points a game.

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Speaker 4: So what do they do?

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Speaker 7: They get the opening touchdown script the one that they've

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Speaker 7: been practicing those plays all week, and after that the

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Speaker 7: only touchdown the Niners have the rest of the game

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Speaker 7: is after an interception sets up an eight yard field

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Speaker 7: and they get in the next play.

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Speaker 5: That's it.

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Speaker 7: That's how the Niners scored in this game. The Browns

395
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Speaker 7: defense is for real. They're number one by DVA during

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Speaker 7: the game. They're obviously gonna stay that way and probably

397
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Speaker 7: get even better somehow against than after the Niners game Cleveland.

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Speaker 7: So far, here are their games twenty seven, forty eight,

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Speaker 7: thirty thirty one, thirty six. Four out of the five

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Speaker 7: games are thirty six points are below thirty four and

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Speaker 7: a half overall. The one that went over, you might recall,

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Speaker 7: was against the Steelers, and the Steelers had two defensive

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Speaker 7: scores in that game. So this is another spot where

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00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:51,239
Speaker 7: I think the Browns defense keeps things under. And look

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Speaker 7: at the quarterbacks in this game. Maybe Deshaun Watson comes back.

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Speaker 7: We kind of thought that was supposed to happen this week. Honestly,

407
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Speaker 7: who knows at this point does he play? Does he not?

408
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,879
Speaker 7: Does that even help them? Anyways? He's been terrible. He

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Speaker 7: supposedly has a bad rotator cuff. We might get two

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Speaker 7: backups here, We might get PJ. Walker and Gardner Minshew.

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Speaker 7: So I feel pretty good about taking an under in

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Speaker 7: a game with Walker and Minshew out there. Minshew, I

413
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Speaker 7: mentioned earlier terrible today, had three interceptions, had a strip sack.

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Speaker 7: Hopefully we don't get too many turnovers here. That's the

415
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Speaker 7: one way this maybe goes badly. Get a few points

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Speaker 7: off of short fields, but cold defense. They're not great,

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Speaker 7: but they're good enough. That's kind of the guest. Bradley

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Speaker 7: m O. I think this is low scoring. I think

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Speaker 7: that it stays ugly. Stefanski for the Browns, and when

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Speaker 7: his total is under forty four, Browns are thirteen and

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Speaker 7: six to the under sixty eight percent. This one's already

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Speaker 7: sliding down as well, giving the Browns Colts under forty

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Speaker 7: and a.

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Speaker 5: Half, So we're ugly.

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Speaker 7: Week seven Hot Reads Thursday Night Football Jacksonville, New Orleans

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Speaker 7: under forty two and a half, and then the Sunday

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Speaker 7: Hey Cleveland, Indianapolis under forty and a half.

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Speaker 5: Back to you guys, Okay, thank you, Brandon Evan. Let's

429
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,199
Speaker 5: keep going through these games. Panthers Dolphins. Dolphins went forty

430
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:12,360
Speaker 5: two to twenty one, one of the few overs today

431
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 5: at forty seven and a half, and the Dolphins do

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Speaker 5: cover as fourteen and a half point favorites. In Tua

433
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,679
Speaker 5: now fifteen and five against the spread at home compared

434
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 5: to just nine to ten and one against the spread

435
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 5: on the road.

436
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 6: So with that fifteen and five mark for Tua, that

437
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 6: is the sixth best mark at home over the last

438
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 6: twenty years of two hundred and fifty six quarterbacks. Here's

439
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:36,920
Speaker 6: your list, Rogers, Brady, Matt Hasselback. That's a fun one,

440
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:41,159
Speaker 6: Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Tua. So Tuoa is really

441
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:43,919
Speaker 6: doing great. He looks better on South Beach than he

442
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,120
Speaker 6: looks off South Beach. And here's a fun stat. If

443
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 6: you had Carolina in this game, pretty bad beat. So

444
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 6: Carolina as a fourteen point dog led fourteen to nothing

445
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 6: and didn't cover the spread. So that is the biggest

446
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 6: line since two thousand and one. Lead by fourteen points

447
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,120
Speaker 6: and not cover pretty tough well.

448
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 5: And then also how quickly they came back. They were

449
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,399
Speaker 5: up twenty one to nothing, like in the blink of

450
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:12,879
Speaker 5: an eye, and something to monitor two Offensive player of

451
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 5: the year. We kind of alluded to it a little bit,

452
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 5: Christian McCaffrey, you know, the oblique injury that's going to

453
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,359
Speaker 5: mess up offensive player of the year odds. Justin Jefferson

454
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 5: he's out as well for on ir and then Tyreek

455
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 5: Hill he pulls up with a hammy in the third quarter.

456
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 5: He did come back in the fourth quarter, but again

457
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 5: something to monitor, like it was just carnage right at

458
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,439
Speaker 5: the top of the Offensive Player of the year odds market,

459
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,120
Speaker 5: and now I feel like that race is wide open.

460
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 5: But he mostered. He leads the NFL now with eleven touchdowns.

461
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 5: He'll probably be right up there with Tyreek as far

462
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 5: as odds go. I will say, though Mike McDaniel did

463
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 5: undo a wrong because the Dolphins did get a little

464
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 5: too cocky there at the end. They pulled the starters

465
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 5: early up twenty one and then Mike White goes out

466
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,919
Speaker 5: there and a pick six by the Panthers gets it

467
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 5: to fourteen. You think that the Panthers are going to cover,

468
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:02,199
Speaker 5: but then the Dolphins get the ball back, they go

469
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:03,919
Speaker 5: down to the goal line, they steal it with a

470
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,639
Speaker 5: touchdown with Salvina bet So, Mike McDaniel, if you're a

471
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 5: Dolphins better is a real one for that. Ravens Titans,

472
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 5: let's talk about the London game. Ravens win twenty four

473
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 5: to sixteen. Ravens covers four and a half point favorites

474
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,160
Speaker 5: and the under forty two and a half hits Evan.

475
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 5: This is one of those games where it was kind

476
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 5: of a trend buster because we talked about this on

477
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,640
Speaker 5: Arabell how lamar Jackson when he's a favorite of more

478
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:31,399
Speaker 5: than three points, not a good cover in that spot,

479
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 5: but now he did cover in that spot, so he

480
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,439
Speaker 5: moved to three and thirteen against the spread since the

481
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 5: start of twenty twenty one. And then another trend that

482
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 5: got busted is Mike Vrabel as an underdog. Usually he

483
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 5: is pretty solid in this spot, but now moves to

484
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 5: twenty eight nineteen and one against the spread.

485
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:50,439
Speaker 6: The biggest piece of information that I think mattered in

486
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 6: the end in this game, and it's just because the

487
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 6: way the game started and how Tennessee had to come

488
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 6: back was I think it's really imperative when they arrived

489
00:23:58,800 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 6: in London, and I.

490
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,160
Speaker 2: Think might be like, eh, this is that.

491
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 6: But listen Friday versus earlier in the week, Baltimore was

492
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 6: up eighteen to three at the half, and even in

493
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 6: the post game, Lamar said he cap tiped the coaches

494
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:12,639
Speaker 6: for it. He said he thinks it really helped the

495
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 6: team by being there. So I think that's something interesting.

496
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 6: Baltimore eight of sixteen on third down, Tennessee one of nine,

497
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 6: and I think we have to mention it was.

498
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 2: First of all, a ton of quarterbacks got.

499
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 6: Hurt this week, from Jimmy to Baker and Ryan Tannehill

500
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 6: in this game, so Malik Willis got time.

501
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 2: And I think when you look at Milik Willis.

502
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,479
Speaker 6: And now Tennessee's going into their bye week, right, so

503
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 6: they face at Land at home after the bye.

504
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:38,400
Speaker 2: They got to figure out what to do here, right.

505
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 6: Malik Willis was sacked four times and had five pass

506
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 6: attempts in the game. He was holding the ball way

507
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 6: too long and Tannehill's sewing interception, so I think Vrabel's

508
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 6: kind of throwing up his hands. It's a tough spot

509
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 6: for them. And I will say this International Games favorites

510
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,719
Speaker 6: continue to do well. So thirty ten and one straight up,

511
00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 6: twenty six and fifteen against the spread a one to that,

512
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 6: so now thirty one to ten in one all right.

513
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 5: So for Able though makes the decision at the end

514
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 5: of the game, that was a huge swing for betters

515
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 5: because he chose to kick a field goal there on

516
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,439
Speaker 5: third down with forty one seconds left. They could have

517
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 5: still made another, at least another attempt. I didn't love it,

518
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 5: and I mean, look, Malik Willis, he looked awful. You're

519
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 5: not the kidden, but you know it just I was

520
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,360
Speaker 5: a little kind of annoyed there because the repstick they

521
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 5: did everything they could. They call multiple penalties the whole

522
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,680
Speaker 5: final drive. Titans get to the one they can't convert

523
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 5: and they kick that field goal, and if you're a

524
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 5: Titans better you know, I'm starting to become like an

525
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 5: mpath like I don't know, just I felt bad if

526
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 5: I was betting the Titans on that side, So that

527
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 5: to me just kind of I felt really bad for

528
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 5: people in that spot, all right, Commanders Falcons. Commanders went

529
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 5: twenty four to sixteen. Falcons lose at home with Desmond

530
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 5: Ritter for the first time, first home game loss for

531
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 5: Desmond Ridder in college and the pros. The Falcons do

532
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 5: not cover as one and a half point home favorites

533
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:03,400
Speaker 5: the under forty two and a half hits. You've been

534
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,360
Speaker 5: tracking Sam Howell as far as like sacks go. Now,

535
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 5: he was leading the NFL in sacks coming into this game,

536
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,439
Speaker 5: gets sacked five more times. Is he on pace right

537
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 5: now to break David Carr's record?

538
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 6: So not on pace, but he's right behind one of

539
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 6: cars seasons. So Howell has thirty four sacks and six

540
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 6: games through six games. Two thousand and two David Carr

541
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,679
Speaker 6: was at thirty nine, so five more. And then two

542
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 6: thousand and five David Garr was at thirty five.

543
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 2: So one more.

544
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 6: So Howell right now on pace for about the third

545
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 6: most in that span.

546
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 2: And then you look at Daniel Jones.

547
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,160
Speaker 6: Probably not not worth the forgetting about him, twenty eight

548
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 6: sacks in five games.

549
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 2: Obviously he's out for Sunday Night football tonight, so for sure.

550
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,679
Speaker 5: Yeah, and ritterd just isn't good enough. It's annoying to

551
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,119
Speaker 5: watch now, Like loses the first home game ever, but

552
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 5: had that critical interception at the goal line with five

553
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,919
Speaker 5: minutes to go. They're down eight you know, six straight

554
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:01,479
Speaker 5: incompletions to end the game. Like, I'll get Taylor Heineke

555
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 5: in there. I can't watch Desmondrider play another game of football.

556
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 6: Oh, let's run through the zero to ten first half

557
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 6: against the spread. So just hasn't covered a first half

558
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 6: in his career. And the trend that I looked at here,

559
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 6: which continues to run kind of continues to run. Falcons

560
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 6: four and twelve, four eleven and one against the spread

561
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,439
Speaker 6: after a straight up win. So can't put together a

562
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 6: win streak under Arthur Smith at all.

563
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 5: All right, let's run through the rest of these games.

564
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 5: Saints Texans. Texans win twenty to thirteen. The underhits, with

565
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 5: the Saints losing outright as road favorites at two and

566
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:36,640
Speaker 5: a half and the under at forty two and a half.

567
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 5: Saints now six and oh to the under though only

568
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:40,919
Speaker 5: team in the NFL to have all their games go

569
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 5: under and c. J. Stroud covers his fourth straight game again.

570
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 5: Really going to be probably in that favorite spot now

571
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 5: for Offensive Rookie of the Year. But the at luck

572
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 5: runs out. He did finally throw an interception, so that

573
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 5: streak is over. We don't have to hear about that anymore,

574
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 5: about how his streak is longer than Tom Brady and

575
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 5: every other good quarter back that doesn't turn the ball over.

576
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 5: But yeah, some questionable pass plays to and the Texans

577
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 5: possession though at the end of this game. And never

578
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 5: thought I thought think to myself that, oh, you left

579
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,679
Speaker 5: too much time for Derek Carr. But I mean, he

580
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 5: had two and a half minutes left for the Saints,

581
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 5: and he just looked like Derek Carr and apt as usual.

582
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 5: And they do not convert Lions Buccaneers. Lions win twenty

583
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 5: to six, the underhits of forty two and a half.

584
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:28,439
Speaker 5: Lions do win as road favorites, as minus three favorites.

585
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 5: Jared goffam the Lions, honestly, though, they did whatever they

586
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 5: wanted through the year, eight point one yards for completion,

587
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 5: They were seven and twelve on third down and Evan

588
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 5: Baker Mayfield just we talked about that hot and cold

589
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 5: aspect with Baker, and this is the cold part. Horrendous

590
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 5: game nineteen for thirty seven, passing two hundred yards, and

591
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 5: he was two for twelve on third down.

592
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,520
Speaker 6: Yeah, he just looked really bad overall. And here's his

593
00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 6: stat for Baker, So he's just been historically bad in

594
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 6: the second half twenty eight forty seven and one second

595
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 6: half ats thirty seven percent, though he's three and two

596
00:28:58,880 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 6: this season.

597
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 2: But here's the huge it.

598
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 6: Right, sixteen twenty and one second half ats when he

599
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 6: has the lead, when he doesn't, eight and twenty four

600
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 6: second half ats worst of two hundred and forty quarterbacks

601
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 6: since two thousand and five. He's lost six straight in

602
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 6: that spot, including today. So when he has the lead,

603
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 6: he's about five hundred. Kind of shows up second half.

604
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 6: When he doesn't, he's just a big fade.

605
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 5: I don't need to hear anymore. Yeah, that's perfect, perfect

606
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 5: wrap up on Baker Mayfield. Colts Jaguars. Jaguars with thirty

607
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 5: seven to twenty total does go over at forty three

608
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 5: and a half and the Jaguars covered easily as three

609
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 5: and a half point favorites. The Jaguars just have the

610
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 5: Colts number.

611
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 2: Man.

612
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 5: They're fifteen to two and one against the spread since

613
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 5: twenty fifteen against the Colts, like even that London trend,

614
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 5: you know, team's coming back not taking the buye. That's

615
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 5: usually a smash spot for the opposite team. It's not

616
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 5: mad and the Jaguars just put that to rest very easily.

617
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, did not matter at all.

618
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 6: I listen, I bet the Colts last week when Richardson

619
00:29:58,200 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 6: went out and Minshew came in and I was like,

620
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 6: oh no, and it ended up working out, but he

621
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 6: looked he was a pumpkin. This week it did not

622
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 6: look well. Jacksonville gave Etn every carry he wanted and

623
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 6: it was a blowout.

624
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 5: Vikings Bears. Vikings win nineteen to thirteen. Total does go

625
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 5: under a forty four and a half and the Vikings

626
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 5: do cover as three and a half point favorites and

627
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 5: play in another one possession game. Every game this year

628
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 5: has been by one possession and their record reflects that.

629
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 5: There two and four after going eleven and zero last year. Honestly,

630
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 5: there wasn't worth much worth watching for this game. Three

631
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 5: turnovers in the first half, justin fields gets hurt, he

632
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 5: leaves in the second half, and the Vikings just sat

633
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 5: there and waited until Dyce Invasion turned it over to them,

634
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 5: and that was pretty much it, you know, so Cardinals

635
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 5: Rams Rams went twenty six to nine. Total goes under

636
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 5: forty seven and a half, but the Rams do cover

637
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 5: as seven point favorites. And this was pretty much just

638
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 5: a field goal fight for about the first half. Thought

639
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 5: we might see that all the game. But then Cooper

640
00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 5: Cup welcome back, another big game touchdown and the Rams

641
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 5: they could be feisty come playoff time. Once you get

642
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 5: cut Stafford and McVeigh cooking here, there could be a

643
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 5: sleeping beast here in the NFC. All right, let's end

644
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 5: it off here Patriots Raiders. Raiders win twenty one to seventeen.

645
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 5: The total does go under a forty one and a half,

646
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 5: just barely, and the Raiders do cover as three point favorites.

647
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 5: Mac Jones is three and thirteen now as an underdog.

648
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 5: In his career, he has lost twelve consecutives starts, straight

649
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 5: up and ats as an underdog. And yeah, I'm just

650
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 5: gonna put it to you this way. Is this the

651
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 5: last start for mac Jones? This is gonna be the

652
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 5: question I'm gonna ask you every week until we see

653
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 5: it change.

654
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 6: They're at home against Buffalo next week, so it's like

655
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 6: when you go into that game. The question is who

656
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 6: else do you have? Like you even saw Malie Cunningham

657
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 6: today in a lineup. I know Zappi was inactive and

658
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 6: then Greer was inactive or it just I'm not really

659
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 6: sure what you do there. So maybe he gets another start.

660
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 6: But here's the stat I was looking at. So the

661
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 6: Bill's nine point favorites in New England, it'd be the

662
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 6: largest home dog for New England since two thousand and one.

663
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 6: It was Brady's first start. They were plus eleven and

664
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 6: a half against Peyton Manning. They won the game forty

665
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 6: four to thirteen, which absolutely means nothing but largest line.

666
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 6: Mac Jones lost thirteen straight starts.

667
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 2: It's a dog. It's just really bad.

668
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 5: One of the sad things was in the during the

669
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 5: third quarter during the broadcast, the announcer goes and Remandre

670
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 5: with the longest run of the season sixteen yards, and

671
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 5: then got like the next play. I was just like,

672
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 5: oh my god, things are bleak. And you know, from

673
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 5: a results standpoint, if you had the Raiders minus three,

674
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 5: you got super bailed out at the end because Max

675
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 5: Crosby gets that late hit for the Patriots touchdown, which

676
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 5: then puts you in a position of the Patriots now covering,

677
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 5: but then gets the safety at the end for the

678
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 5: Raiders cover man. It was just unbelievable. All right, Let's

679
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 5: now check in with Patrick Everson with BEGA Insider to

680
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 5: see how sportsbook's fair in Las Vegas for week six. Patrick,

681
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 5: we talk about this every week. How did the sportsbooks do?

682
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 4: What's the vibe?

683
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 1: The vibe is that they'll be buying their own drinks

684
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 1: behind the counter tonight.

685
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 4: They've got a on this Sunday evening.

686
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 1: As we talked to you, I know you come out

687
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 1: on Monday, a very good Sunday behind the counter, and honestly,

688
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 1: even it even started early. For one odds maker I

689
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 1: talked to you said the London game worked out very

690
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 1: well there with the Ravens, and they also noted that,

691
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 1: you know, the two big upsets today which you perhaps.

692
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 4: Already alluded to.

693
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 1: I mean, look, San Francisco going on the road laying

694
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 1: nine and a half, a game that opened four and

695
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 1: a half. Generally thought it was going to be maybe

696
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 1: not a walkover because the weather wasn't necessarily good in

697
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 1: Cleveland and it is a lengthy road trip. But that

698
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 1: was a shocker. And then you get the Eagles losing

699
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 1: outright to the Jets. Look if Jill, if there were

700
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 1: any Moneylazer teasers that survived the Niners game, they did

701
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 1: not survive the.

702
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 4: Eagles game pretty much.

703
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 1: Unquestionably, odds makers were definitely pretty happy with that. I

704
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 1: even talked with benham jam Nevada Scott Shelton about it,

705
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 1: went back and forth them. Just reading some text from him,

706
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 1: he said, monster day for the books. And honestly, I

707
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 1: know we're talking NFL here, but when you factor in

708
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: a pretty good Saturday on the college football front, he said,

709
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 1: it's the best weekend in recent memory for the books.

710
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 1: So they certainly didn't mind at all seeing the Eagles

711
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:33,879
Speaker 1: lose outright, and of course the Niners lose outright as well,

712
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 1: which means we have no more undefeated teams in the NFL.

713
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, and one team that I think the public was

714
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,399
Speaker 5: definitely on that probably was able to get a little

715
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 5: bit of action back had to have been the Dolphins

716
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:48,879
Speaker 5: today with that Lake cover, especially after Mike White throws

717
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:51,800
Speaker 5: the inexplicable pick six there at the end of the game,

718
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 5: and then Mike McDaniel able to seal that cover for

719
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 5: the public at the fourteen and a half.

720
00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:59,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, no question, the Dolphins are a super public team

721
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 1: this point. Look, notwithstanding the debacle that they had when

722
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,800
Speaker 1: they just got shellacked up in Buffalo, they've been really consistent.

723
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 1: They look certainly the role of one of the best

724
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 1: teams in the league. And when you consider that two

725
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 1: of the best teams in the league got beat today

726
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 1: on the NFC side of things to opponents that are

727
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 1: perceived and really are lesser than the Buffalo Bills, that

728
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 1: makes the Dolphins look pretty good. So yeah, the Dolphins

729
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 1: certainly got a little bit back for the public. So too,

730
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 1: I would say, do the Detroit Lions, who are just

731
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: an ATM for betters for almost a year now. They've

732
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,799
Speaker 1: got almost a season under their belt. Thirteen to three

733
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 1: straight up fourteen and two against spread in their last

734
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:43,240
Speaker 1: sixteen games. They're just a machine.

735
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely, especially when you look at the splits of

736
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 5: Jared Goff and how he has usually performed at home

737
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:51,800
Speaker 5: as opposed to on the road, where the scoring outputs

738
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 5: are usually much less. Let's talk about Monday Night Football though,

739
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 5: because the Cowboys are going to be facing the Chargers.

740
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 5: Cowboys typically do get a lot of action, but you know,

741
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 5: this Chargers team playing at home. Maybe people don't want

742
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:05,720
Speaker 5: to bet on the Chargers here in the spot because

743
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 5: the Chargers tend to charger at the end of the game.

744
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 5: Is is Monday night football getting a lot of action

745
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:12,839
Speaker 5: from sportsbooks that you're speaking with.

746
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 1: The Chargers tend to charger. That's such a great line.

747
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 1: It is so on the spot, and the Raiders do

748
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:20,399
Speaker 1: that a lot too. The Raiders tend to raider how

749
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 1: they managed to cover today, which is disgusting, but that's

750
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 1: how it goes.

751
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 4: Look going into tonight, there wasn't necessarily a whole lot

752
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 4: of chat going into Sunday night.

753
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 1: I should say there wasn't a whole lot of chatter

754
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,320
Speaker 1: about Cowboys Chargers, but I think there will be. I

755
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 1: think this game is gonna get pretty good play. You've

756
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 1: got You've got two good quarterbacks, two reasonably good quarterbacks.

757
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 4: Certainly Herb it's a greatquarterback.

758
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 1: Prescott's a very good quarterback, but coming off a very

759
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 1: disappointing performance as the Cowboys get shelld But the Cowboys

760
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 1: don't travel back home. They didn't make another road trip

761
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 1: out of this. They just shuttled down the coast to

762
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 1: get ready to play the Chargers. I will say at

763
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 1: bet MGM, really good two way action on this game.

764
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 1: We still got you know, some time before kickoff, but

765
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,240
Speaker 1: slightly more tickets on the cow Boys, slightly more money

766
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 1: on the Chargers.

767
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:03,879
Speaker 4: So two way action on the game. I think it'll

768
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 4: be pretty well bet.

769
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:06,799
Speaker 1: And you know some betters are probably gonna be licking

770
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 1: their wounds and trying to win a little back on

771
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 1: that Monday night game. But Jill, I couldn't tell you

772
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:14,359
Speaker 1: which side you should go with in this case?

773
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:15,359
Speaker 4: Do you do you go?

774
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 1: Do you back the team that just got blasted at

775
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 1: San Francisco or the team that, as you said, Chargers

776
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 1: gonna charger? The coach makes a lot of interesting decisions

777
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 1: in his play calling, and and you know, you feel

778
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 1: like Herbert is a great quarterback. But is his team

779
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 1: gonna win them arow night? I don't know, if I guess,

780
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 1: if pressed, I'm gonna take the charges at o't.

781
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 4: Know win the game.

782
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,319
Speaker 1: But you know that's uh yeah, but they're the short

783
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 1: underdog as we have it right now.

784
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 5: Let's talk about Week seven though. Is there any game

785
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,800
Speaker 5: already for Week seven that has saw a movement already

786
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 5: from sharp action? Obviously, there's a ton of injuries, you

787
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 5: know that we're gonna have to reflect on. Maybe we

788
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 5: don't necessarily dive ahead first into that, but maybe a

789
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 5: game that doesn't necessarily have a big injury question.

790
00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 1: Mark at the top, right, I think, honestly, the Dolphins

791
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 1: Eagles game on Sunday night, this was interesting. So I

792
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 1: spoke with an odds maker Sunday night here in Vegas

793
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 1: that opened Philly minus two late in that Jets game.

794
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 1: The Jet the Eagles Jets game wasn't over yet, so

795
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 1: Philly had not lost that game. Subsequently, Philly loses. The

796
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:19,839
Speaker 1: odds maker and his risk team they talk about it.

797
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 1: They moved the Eagles up from two to two and

798
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 1: a half. And the reason he said is the perception

799
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 1: will certainly be that the Eagles are too good Jill

800
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 1: to lose two in a row. And the odds maker

801
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 1: added that the betting public might recall the last time

802
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 1: the Dolphins were underdogs at Buffalo, Dolphins got shellacked. I

803
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 1: think we alluded to it a few minutes ago. Forty

804
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:44,360
Speaker 1: eight to twenty, a big forty eight to twenty loss.

805
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:47,439
Speaker 1: So both these teams are very public sides. There's gonna

806
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 1: be plenty of action on both sides, the odds maker said,

807
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: but they actually moved the Eagles up a little bit

808
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 1: on what they think will be the public perception and

809
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:55,439
Speaker 1: the public money coming in on.

810
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 4: Hey, the Eagles aren't losing to in a row.

811
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 1: They're gonna win and cover this game under a field

812
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 1: goal they would feel good about, all right.

813
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 5: Patrick Everson for Vegas Insider, Thanks for everything, buddy, We'll

814
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 5: talk again next week.

815
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 4: Absolutely, have a great week.

816
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 5: Thank you for listening to the Action Network podcast presented

817
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 5: by bet MGM. Enjoy Monday Night Football. Keep an eye

818
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 5: out for all of our NFL Week seven podcasts right

819
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 5: here on the Action Network.

820
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

821
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

822
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:42,920
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler