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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Rouno with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Balance of Power here

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Speaker 2: on the radio, the satellite, and on YouTube. Where you

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Speaker 2: can find us right now, go to YouTube search Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Global News. You'll find our live feed with breaking news.

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Speaker 2: Dare to dream. Legislation has emerged. After days of work

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Speaker 2: in the House of Representatives. It landed at three o'clock

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Speaker 2: in the morning. Did you feel a bump in the night?

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Speaker 2: Here's what we've got, six bills one point two trillion dollars,

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Speaker 2: one thy twelve pages. Of course, if they don't get

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Speaker 2: this done, the government will shut down or partially shut

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Speaker 2: down midnight Friday. And as we told you yesterday, if

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Speaker 2: they follow the rules that will happen. They're not possibly

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Speaker 2: going to get this done with a seventy two hour

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Speaker 2: waiting period in the House, thirty hours of debate in

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Speaker 2: the Senate. So now the question is can Mike Johnson

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Speaker 2: break those rules, set the land speed record required, send

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Speaker 2: everybody home on recess for another two weeks. They call

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Speaker 2: it the district work period, you know, and we start

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Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill to get a sense of what's inside

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Speaker 2: and what the chances are to actually make this happen.

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Speaker 2: With Eric Watson, who broke this story Bloomberg News congressional reporter, Eric,

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Speaker 2: have you been up all night? Do they call you

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Speaker 2: at three am when this happens.

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Speaker 3: I did wake up shortly after three am. They told

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Speaker 3: me it was going to come at four. I set

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Speaker 3: an alarm, but then I was, you know, nervous, and

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Speaker 3: I got up at three. But I mean the story

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Speaker 3: here today is jet fumes for the win. I mean

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Speaker 3: jet fumes and a recess tends to win. I think Mike.

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Speaker 3: We're told Mike Johnson will, in fact to violate that

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Speaker 3: seventy two hour room. Put this up for a vote

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Speaker 3: around eleven am on Friday. We expected to pass under

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Speaker 3: a two thirds majority procedure. Lots of Democrats happy with this,

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Speaker 3: I think probably more than half of Republicans. We saw

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Speaker 3: with the first mini of US ES six built package

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Speaker 3: a few weeks ago, surprising number of Republicans, more than

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Speaker 3: a majority voted for it. There's a lot of earmarks

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Speaker 3: in here, a lot of pet projects, and Johnson's promoting

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Speaker 3: to his people it's a defense increase, you know, this

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Speaker 3: is a three percent defense increase while domestic spending remains flat.

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Speaker 3: This is all due that debt ceialing agreement that we

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Speaker 3: had last year, which was you know, a big topic

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Speaker 3: of our coverage. They came up with his budget caps,

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Speaker 3: which you know, they don't include. They preclude the rising

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Speaker 3: and domestic spending that we saw under the early Biden years.

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Speaker 3: They don't really cut too much, and that has the

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Speaker 3: conservatives fuming. You know, Chip Roy, one of the leading conservatives,

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Speaker 3: which on the Steve Bannon Show on this abomination. But

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Speaker 3: he's not saying the motion to vacate, you know, he's

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Speaker 3: not saying Alex Johnson. So these guys fuming. They're mad.

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Speaker 3: That's one point two and they're mad they don't get

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Speaker 3: seventy two hours, but they're not ready to take out

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Speaker 3: the knives yet.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. We heard from Mike Johnson a bit earlier.

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Speaker 2: He of course was probably up all night kind of

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Speaker 2: like you were, but he spoke to reporters shortly after

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Speaker 2: trying to frame this, of course, to the best of

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Speaker 2: his ability. You're right, Conservatives feel like they lost some

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Speaker 2: ground on this. Here's how the Speaker of the House

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Speaker 2: sees it.

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Speaker 4: We've been very very consistent, very adamant that we had

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Speaker 4: to get our government funded, we had to get the

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Speaker 4: appropriations process done. I'm delighted to tell you we're coming

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Speaker 4: to the end of that and we should have the

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Speaker 4: bill techs hopefully by this afternoon and begin to finish

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Speaker 4: up that process. This is the second batch of bills.

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Speaker 4: It includes the Department of Defense bill, as you know, Labor,

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Speaker 4: h Ledge Branch, fsgg S, FOPS, and Homeland. That last piece,

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Speaker 4: the Homeland piece, was the most difficult to negotiate because

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Speaker 4: the two parties have a wide chasm between them.

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Speaker 2: As you know, that is right talked about it quite

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Speaker 2: a bit. This is where things fell apart for a

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Speaker 2: little bit. Certainly got delayed over the weekend. Remembering DHS

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Speaker 2: Department of Homeland Security is the border, and nothing easily

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Speaker 2: around the border happens. What we have now a twenty

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Speaker 2: four percent increase in DHS detention beds for migrants. That

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Speaker 2: was a big sticking point funding for twenty two thousand

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Speaker 2: border patrol agents. Eric Watson. If we do skip the

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Speaker 2: seventy two hour rule and the Speaker loses the Freedom Caucus,

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Speaker 2: will this still pass the House?

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Speaker 3: I definitely would would pass the Freedom Caucus to almost

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Speaker 3: all of them always vote. Know, in some ways you

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Speaker 3: say that surrendered their power. But you know, in the

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Speaker 3: DHS spending it's very interesting forty two thousand detention beds.

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Speaker 3: That's less than the fifty thousand tension beds at the

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Speaker 3: Senate Bipartisan Cinema Langford compromise would have provided that the

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Speaker 3: Speaker torpedo and I you know, I've asked Republican aids

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Speaker 3: about this. You know, how can you call it a victory.

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Speaker 3: I don't have a great answer. I think they may

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Speaker 3: come back and try to do a some type of

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Speaker 3: border deal later. I mean, the real answer this is

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Speaker 3: under budget cap that that emergency spending bill was not capped.

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Speaker 3: But they are trying to claim in a victory. You know,

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Speaker 3: Democrats meanwhile trying to jump support. They're very happy they

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Speaker 3: avoided a twenty two percent cut to domestic spending the

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Speaker 3: Republicans wanted. They got a billion dollars worth for head

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Speaker 3: Start and childcare. You know, they did have to give

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Speaker 3: on some things, including this provision that effectively bars the

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Speaker 3: flying of the Pride flag over US embassies. You know,

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Speaker 3: Democrats quickly point out it also bars a Confederate flag

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Speaker 3: or MAGA Make America Great Again flags. But this was

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Speaker 3: really aimed at the Pride flag because some embassies were

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Speaker 3: flying that, and that's something they had to swallow as

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Speaker 3: part of this deal in order to protect the domestic

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Speaker 3: spending that they wanted to focus on.

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Speaker 2: Fascinating, we've also got funding in here for new FBI headquarters,

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Speaker 2: which is something that we've talked about abit US program.

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Speaker 3: Victory for studying lawyer Maryland Democrat who not only matched

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Speaker 3: that away from Virginia but protected two hundred million dollars

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Speaker 3: in this.

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Speaker 2: That's something Glenn Youngkin lost FBI headquarters and might be

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Speaker 2: losing the teams here. Eric, I have to ask you

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Speaker 2: lastly about the Senate. Is Ram Paul gonna hold this

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Speaker 2: up or is this going to sail through? You said

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Speaker 2: jet fumes for the win.

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, I just talked to John Thune, just

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Speaker 3: running out on the outside with him. He says, an

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Speaker 3: amendment deal in the works. Hopefully they get this done

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Speaker 3: on Friday in the Senate, so you know you can

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Speaker 3: bene jet funds. It's more Mike Lee. He's very angry.

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Speaker 3: He wants a stopgap built to April twelfth. He's going

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Speaker 3: to try to get unanimous consent for that. He won't

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Speaker 3: get yourn animous consent. I think it's more out how

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Speaker 3: much he wants to dig in. The rumor is rand

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Speaker 3: Paul has a big event in Kentucky on Saturday, Susan Collins.

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Speaker 3: Unfortunately her mother passed away. Her brother's funeralist is on Saturday.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of personal considerations why people don't want

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Speaker 3: to be here that are legitimate. I'm thinking gets done Friday,

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Speaker 3: but we'll see.

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Speaker 2: They call it the home district work period, right do

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Speaker 2: you smirk when you hear that as opposed to recess?

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Speaker 2: Or are lawmakers? I know I'm going off the track

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Speaker 2: here a little bit. Eric, our lawmakers actually working when

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Speaker 2: they're home.

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Speaker 3: I think you know, generalizations are top some are certainly

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Speaker 3: some are going on Codel's investigative Codels. These are trips

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Speaker 3: to know everywhere from Taiwan to the Middle East, you know,

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Speaker 3: to put some of the older more retire members, maybe

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Speaker 3: just taking a little bit easy. We have a lot

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Speaker 3: of occagenarians up here. I'm not sure that they're really

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Speaker 3: padding the pavement each day at the district work periods.

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Speaker 3: Are You're right to be a little skeptical.

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Speaker 2: Okay, got it. It's great to see again. Great reporting, Eric,

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Speaker 2: and thanks for staying up for us. Eric Watson has

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Speaker 2: been away since three o'clock in the morning when the

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Speaker 2: legislation finally emerged, and it sounds like we're not going

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Speaker 2: to shut down after all of the talk we've had

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Speaker 2: about that being essentially for gone. This is fascinating. Just

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Speaker 2: clear the path, get rid of the rules, and we

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Speaker 2: set a land speed record once again. That'll get us

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Speaker 2: to September thirty. By the way, the President has already

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Speaker 2: dropped his twenty twenty five budget proposal, and there are

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Speaker 2: a lot of questions about whether this Congress is going

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Speaker 2: to be capable of generating a spending plan beyond September.

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Speaker 2: Knowing that, well, forget just this two week recess. Lawmakers

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Speaker 2: are going into campaign season time to get re elected,

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Speaker 2: and with a presidential campaign underway, nothing is going to

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Speaker 2: be easy. Speaking of been looking forward to talking to

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Speaker 2: Laura today after we saw the numbers last night. Fundraising

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Speaker 2: came in with the midnight deadline. So we're looking at

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden's numbers and comparing them to Donald Trump's, and

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Speaker 2: it is quite a contrast. She's our politics editor, of course,

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Speaker 2: in a regular voice here on this program, Laura Davison.

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Speaker 2: Great to see you. Joe Biden is out raising Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump by two to one. You look at the polls

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Speaker 2: and you try to wonder how to rationalize the too.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, this is a real, you know, stark contrast. If

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Speaker 5: you look at the polls, they are neck and neck

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Speaker 5: in some cases Biden is trailing Trump, but when it

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Speaker 5: comes to money, Biden has a significant lead over Trump.

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Speaker 5: You look at kind of all the fundraising metrics, you know,

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Speaker 5: in terms of the number of fundraisers, where this money

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Speaker 5: is coming from, how much is coming in, And Biden's

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Speaker 5: had a structural advantage. He's been able to raise money

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Speaker 5: in conjunction with the DNC and the state parties, you know,

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Speaker 5: since April of last year, whereas Trump wasn't able to

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Speaker 5: do that until you know, a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 5: So he hasn't really seen that fundraising bump that he's

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Speaker 5: able to get you know, once he can you know,

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Speaker 5: combine powers with the RNC.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's just look at the numbers quickly here, so

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Speaker 2: realizing it's not exactly apples to apples, but the campaigns themselves.

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden's campaign raising twenty one point three million dollars

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Speaker 2: in February, cash on hands seventy one million dollars, Trump

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Speaker 2: campaign eleven million, cash on hand thirty three million. That's

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Speaker 2: pretty stark. And the DNC pulling in sixteen million to

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Speaker 2: the RNC is ten million. Does make you wonder here

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Speaker 2: he spent what fifty million, more than fifty million dollars

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Speaker 2: on legal fees in this period of time.

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Speaker 5: About five million, five million he said for the month,

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Speaker 5: five million for the month. Awesome looking back to last January,

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Speaker 5: you know, more than sixty million.

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Speaker 2: So cash on hand would be a very different story

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Speaker 2: if he wasn't spending everyone's.

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Speaker 5: Money in yeah, yeah, you know, he would have you know, basically,

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Speaker 5: you know, he has another eight million or so that

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Speaker 5: he can spend on legal fees. If he spent all

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Speaker 5: of that legal fee money on on the campaign, he'd

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Speaker 5: be a lot better off in terms of this cast position.

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Speaker 5: Almost closing that gap with Biden. So that's a sort

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Speaker 5: of an interesting way to think about this. The other

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Speaker 5: thing that's really looming for Trump is he runs out

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Speaker 5: of this money that he can use for legal fees,

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Speaker 5: depending how quickly he spends it two three months, which

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Speaker 5: means he the Nader has to use his own money.

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Speaker 5: He has to go to the r and C, which

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Speaker 5: means that there's less RNC money for races, or get

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Speaker 5: more from donors, which just you know, there is a

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Speaker 5: finite amount of money out.

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Speaker 2: There that was by July or something that cash burn.

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Speaker 5: Would be problem even sooner. Now he's spent about twice

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Speaker 5: as much in February as he did in January, so

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Speaker 5: you know, legal fees can be bumpy and don't necessarily

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Speaker 5: follow a straight line.

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Speaker 2: Sure, yes, it's kind of amazing though, because the big

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Speaker 2: story is there might not be any trials before the

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Speaker 2: election and he's still burning cash. But I guess it

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Speaker 2: costs a lot of money to delay these trials.

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Speaker 5: Yes, you know, there's and he's got a multiple different

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Speaker 5: legal fights he's fighting simultaneously, so there's lots of teams

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Speaker 5: of lawyers, lots of hours, and you know he's these

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Speaker 5: are expensive lawyers. He's paying, you know, two thousand dollars.

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Speaker 2: Now, therefore, as we spend time with Laura Davison on

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio and on YouTube, talk to me more about

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Speaker 2: the RNC because it has been reformed in his own image.

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Speaker 2: He's even got Laura Trump in there, along with a

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Speaker 2: very friendly co chair, a Trump friendly co chair and

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Speaker 2: his senior advisor, Las Savita is helping to run the RNC. Now,

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Speaker 2: they just have been there for a couple of weeks.

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Speaker 2: What's that going to look like with some time and

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Speaker 2: some momentum.

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Speaker 5: So they have basically cleaned house there. They fired you know,

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Speaker 5: about sixty people they have, you know, are reviewing every

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Speaker 5: single contract that they have, and they are really embedding

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Speaker 5: themselves and meshing themselves with the Trump campaign. So you

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Speaker 5: have Chris lass Avida, who is a key senior advisor

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Speaker 5: at the Trump campaign, who's now the operations guy there.

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Speaker 5: So you're going to see them moving in lockstep. You're

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Speaker 5: already seeing this a little bit with some big fundraisers

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Speaker 5: that are coming up. You know, John Paulson is holding

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Speaker 5: one at the beginning of April that you know, the

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Speaker 5: money we raised you know up to you know eight

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Speaker 5: hundred thousand dollars a person. Money goes to the RNC,

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Speaker 5: the state parties as well as the Trump campaign, so

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Speaker 5: they consume You'll start to see the money flowing in.

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Speaker 5: The question is are they able to sustain it and

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Speaker 5: catch up to Biden, which is they've got Biden has

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Speaker 5: a huge lead right now.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's really interesting, Laura. We talk a lot

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Speaker 2: about free media or earned media. Donald Trump is the king.

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Speaker 2: He almost doesn't need to spend money. But when you

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Speaker 2: think more about it and you listen to what Chris

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Speaker 2: Lasavita said about the cost of his rallies, which are

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Speaker 2: really his secret weapon, right these massive rallies and he

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Speaker 2: gets picked up and chopped up for social media. They

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Speaker 2: cost so much money that they're pulling back on them.

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Speaker 2: Could that be the real deficit for Trump in this cycle?

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Speaker 5: That could certainly end up being a problem for him.

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Speaker 5: You know, right now he has no rallies on the calendar,

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Speaker 5: and the plan going forward is to really cut back

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Speaker 5: on the number of these they hold, be more choosy about,

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Speaker 5: you know, locations, which could mean that they have you know,

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Speaker 5: less optimal locations, pull out fewer people. The other thing

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Speaker 5: that's important for Trump is he has to expand his coalition.

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Speaker 5: So the campaign is really going after black voters, Hispanic voters,

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Speaker 5: young voters. But it's going to take money to reach

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Speaker 5: those people with your message and to have, you know,

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Speaker 5: to bring out those people to the polls.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Joe Biden's touring Swing states. That's what he's been

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Speaker 2: doing since the State of the Union. That's what you do.

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Speaker 2: The road show continues. He's trying like heck to connect

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Speaker 2: with voters and create something that shows up in the polls.

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Speaker 2: All Donald Trump has to just go to court on Monday,

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Speaker 2: which he will do, right. He'll be in court in

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Speaker 2: New York, maybe get a new trial date from Alvin Bragg,

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Speaker 2: and he will turn that into a snowballing media event.

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Speaker 2: That is his home court advantage the court room.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and he will be able to control the message,

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Speaker 5: and he has messages you to look, this is a

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Speaker 5: witch hunt. I'm being persecuted. The other important thing to

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Speaker 5: remember is next week is when he has to post

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Speaker 5: that bond for the New York property cases. If he can't, Honestly,

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Speaker 5: I don't know, but you know, this is a ton

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Speaker 5: of money his properties. Latitia James says she will seize

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Speaker 5: his some of his properties. But that almost could be

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Speaker 5: a massive fundraising moment for him of saying, look take buildings,

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Speaker 5: New York Democrats are taking my property. You know, it

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Speaker 5: could be it could take that mugshot moment in Georgia

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Speaker 5: when he had the mugshot and just you know, totally

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Speaker 5: blow that up to even more fundraising.

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Speaker 2: It's incredible. Boy, I don't know. There's there's a lot

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Speaker 2: here when we consider Joe Biden's financial situation as we

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Speaker 2: started off here and a commanding leader when it comes

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Speaker 2: to dollars, how does he use that to his benefit?

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Speaker 2: Are we going to be flooded with Joe Biden ads?

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Speaker 2: Is it about organizing? How does he best use the money?

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Speaker 5: It's a combination of both. They have a big advertising strategy,

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Speaker 5: so if you live in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, expect

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Speaker 5: to be flooded with Joe Biden ads. Also a ton

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Speaker 5: of organizing, a ton of get out the vote and

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Speaker 5: really sort of selling the message of why you know,

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Speaker 5: Joe Biden's economic policies work for folks, getting the right

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Speaker 5: surrogates out to people. But you know, they have a

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Speaker 5: deficit in the polling that you're going to have to

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Speaker 5: make that up, so that means you have to outspend

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Speaker 5: and outwork your Canada.

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Speaker 2: You're as we're out of time, But there was there

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Speaker 2: was a time when candidates would go underground on the

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Speaker 2: summer and raise money until the convention. Right, we're not

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Speaker 2: We're not going to get that, are we.

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Speaker 5: I'm sorry to report that they're just going.

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Speaker 2: To be beating the drum every day. We're going to

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Speaker 2: be pulling you back in here to ask you what

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Speaker 2: is going on? Laurd Davison, great to see you, great

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Speaker 2: work as always here at Bloomberg, on the terminal and

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Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com. She edits the stories that you're

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Speaker 2: reading about the campaign, including the fundraising totals that you

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Speaker 2: can find a lot more on as I mentioned on

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Speaker 2: the website and the terminal. Mike Dorning is going to

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Speaker 2: come in to join us next with the latest on

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Speaker 2: Capitol Hill. Can we avoid a shutdown? If we break

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Speaker 2: the rules?

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Speaker 1: We can?

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay with the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also listen live on Amazon

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Speaker 1: Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa

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Speaker 1: playing Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 2: Thirty Welcome to the Thursday edition of Balance of Power.

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Speaker 2: It is truly the fastest show in politics today, the

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Speaker 2: fastest hour. If you used to be with us in

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Speaker 2: the old days, if you've been with us since sound on,

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Speaker 2: this will feel somewhat familiar. The best of Bloomberg, an

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Speaker 2: hour long show news on a speedboat. And I say

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Speaker 2: that because we have special coverage of the Reddit IPO

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Speaker 2: coming next hour from Carol and Tim in New York.

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Speaker 2: And when that does start trading, we'll of course have

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Speaker 2: an update for you important headline. I just want to

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Speaker 2: mention because across the terminal a short time ago an

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Speaker 2: Israeli team to travel to cutter on Friday to advance

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Speaker 2: a hostage deal. It's been a heck of a lot

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Speaker 2: of talk about a potential ceasefire going on weeks now,

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Speaker 2: and as Ramadan draws to its close, we could be

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Speaker 2: onto something here. We'll see. Having had the conversation between

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Speaker 2: Joey and Benjamin Etna who a bit earlier this week. Otherwise,

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Speaker 2: it's all about funding the government after the bill dropped

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Speaker 2: at three o'clock in the morning. Phones are ringing across

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Speaker 2: towny twelve pages, one point two trillion dollars and some

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Speaker 2: pretty upset conservative Republicans in the House who probably would

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Speaker 2: have voted against this anyway, as we discussed earlier with

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Speaker 2: Eric Watson. But Mike Dorning is here. He's been all

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Speaker 2: over this and editing our coverage here on Capitol Hill

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Speaker 2: from Washington. It's great to see you, Mike.

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Speaker 6: Great to be here.

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Speaker 2: I got this thing done. I'm pretty sure you told

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Speaker 2: us that they would avoid a shutdown even when guys

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Speaker 2: like me were ringing the bell. Your experience, I guess,

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Speaker 2: has given you the ability to have patience.

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Speaker 6: Well, it's just like viewing things through a political lens.

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Speaker 6: My view is when there's a will, there's a way,

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Speaker 6: and there was a lot of evidence that there was

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Speaker 6: a will to avoid shutdown. Although there was they were

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Speaker 6: still trying to find a way, and there's still a

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Speaker 6: possibility we could have like a brief inconsequential shutdown, where

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Speaker 6: I mean, obviously, if you have national guard duty this weekend,

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Speaker 6: that might be consequential because if they shut down, they

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Speaker 6: don't do national guard duty usually, but for most of

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Speaker 6: the economy, people who are in the financial markets. It's

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Speaker 6: possible they might miss this Friday midnight deadline by a

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Speaker 6: few hours or a day or something, but it's not

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Speaker 6: going to have any real impact on the overall economy

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Speaker 6: or anything we invest in.

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Speaker 2: This is an interesting moment as the President urges swift

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Speaker 2: passage of the spending deal. Another headline crossing the terminal

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Speaker 2: as Mike Johnson makes the Freedom Caucus angry. We've heard

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Speaker 2: some very tough reviews of this plan from the likes

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Speaker 2: of Chip Roy and his colleagues, but we've stopped hearing

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Speaker 2: about motion to vacate. Has he finally cleared that hurdle.

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Speaker 6: Well, we haven't heard any sign that any of them

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Speaker 6: would be willing to do that, and they've specifically said

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Speaker 6: some of them don't. We're unhappy, but we're not so

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Speaker 6: unhappy we would have a motion to vacate. This motion

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Speaker 6: to vake it is a fancy way of saying overthrow

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Speaker 6: and leave leaderless the speaker the House, and it hasn't

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Speaker 6: really worked very well for them in terms of getting

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Speaker 6: more done, and they're going into an election. They just

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Speaker 6: need to focus on the election, so it's harder to

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Speaker 6: do that, and their majority has even whittled down further

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Speaker 6: since the days when they overthrew Kevin McCarthy. So I

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Speaker 6: think that there is a there's a reluctance to do that. Now.

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Speaker 2: Okay, after this happens, whether we get a couple hours

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Speaker 2: or a couple of days shut down here, they passed

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Speaker 2: this were good till September thirtieth. Well, there actually the

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Speaker 2: action on the next fiscal year. I mean, the president's

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Speaker 2: already dropped his twenty five budget. Or are we going

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Speaker 2: to waste this whole summer running for office.

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Speaker 6: Well there's the Ukraine funding that I thought think they

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Speaker 6: are sort of they don't have an agreement, but they're

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Speaker 6: kind of circling around different ways. That tells you that

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Speaker 6: they are going to try something in April. Whether that

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Speaker 6: succeeds or not, we don't know, but probably it might succeed.

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Speaker 6: But after that it's mostly probably going to be either

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Speaker 6: non controversial things or messaging bills. And often what happens

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Speaker 6: in an election is, even though the funding runs out

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Speaker 6: on September thirtieth, they do a little kick the can

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Speaker 6: down the road until after the elections, and then you

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Speaker 6: know who's going to control everything next year. So you

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Speaker 6: know who has power to make a deal.

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Speaker 2: Fascinating, Mike Dorning, great to have you with us, of course,

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Speaker 2: editing our congressional coverage at a time when we thought

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Speaker 2: we were heading for a shutdown, and again we could

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Speaker 2: still have a brief one, but it looks like the

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Speaker 2: plan is in place here and speakers got the votes.

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Speaker 2: Could take a minute in the Senate and we'll see

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Speaker 2: what happens after that. But thank you, Mike, of course,

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Speaker 2: jumping in on the breaking story here. As always, I'm

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Speaker 2: Jill Matthew in Washington. This is balance of power. As

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Speaker 2: we turn to the Federal Reserve meeting on this day

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Speaker 2: after the Fed we've had a chance to let things

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Speaker 2: settle a little bit. Wall Street was certainly feeling good

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Speaker 2: about things, and our friend Kate Davison was inside the

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Speaker 2: lock up as they call it, at the Treasury Department

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Speaker 2: when they actually announced the decision. Of course, Michael McKee

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Speaker 2: was in the news conference that we spoke with him

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Speaker 2: about the Q and A with Jay Powell. A lot

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Speaker 2: of folks thought he'd come in hot and hawkish, and

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Speaker 2: it didn't really feel like it by the time he

434
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 2: was done. But I'm going to let Kate and bring

435
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 2: her expertise on this and give us a sense of

436
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:33,120
Speaker 2: what she thinks. She leads our Federal Reserve coverage here

437
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 2: in Washington. Happy Fed day after Thanks for joining. Thanks John,

438
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:40,159
Speaker 2: What did we learn yesterday? I know there was a

439
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 2: tweak to the statement. We got a dot plot that

440
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 2: people were obsessing over, but the market seemed to love

441
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 2: what it heard.

442
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think markets were prepared for the Fed to

443
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 7: say we're not going to cut as many times this

444
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 7: year as we thought. At the end of twenty twenty three,

445
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 7: which is the last time that they released their projections

446
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:06,359
Speaker 7: the dot plot and for now they they're holding firm. Okay,

447
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 7: the dots showed that there were actually ten officials who

448
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:11,080
Speaker 7: think three rate cuts this year.

449
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 5: Sounds about right.

450
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 7: Nine of them think two or fewer, so it's like

451
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 7: almost evenly split. There's nineteen Fed officials. They all submit

452
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 7: their projection, so even though yes, they stuck with the forecast,

453
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,640
Speaker 7: it's pretty close. It sort of feels like things could

454
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 7: go either way over the coming months.

455
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 2: There was a lot of concern because we've had some

456
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 2: hot data lately, and in some cases hotter than expected

457
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 2: job market CPI. If that continues, are we going to

458
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,200
Speaker 2: be looking for adjustments in that forecast.

459
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 7: I think it's it's reasonable to think there could be

460
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 7: some adjustments.

461
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 6: Right.

462
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:49,120
Speaker 7: So basically the message we heard from J. Powell yesterday

463
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 7: was that they're not overly concerned. They have said for

464
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 7: many months that the path to two percent inflation will

465
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:59,120
Speaker 7: be bumpy. That is, they don't expect to see improvement

466
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,639
Speaker 7: month after month after month of improvement. There might be

467
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 7: a couple of blips. So now we saw a couple

468
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 7: of blips, and is that is how concerned should we

469
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,640
Speaker 7: be about this? And Powell was fairly as you said,

470
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 7: you know, markets really liked what he said, but it

471
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 7: sounded to a lot of us who follow the Fed

472
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 7: closely like he was trying to play it fairly down

473
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 7: the middle. Right, We are not we're not super worried

474
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,439
Speaker 7: about this, but we're not taking it for granted that

475
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:26,119
Speaker 7: things are just going to be fine again, that this

476
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 7: was just a blip.

477
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 2: Yeah. Michael McKee, our colleague asked about that whether it

478
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 2: was you know, kind of a one off, yeah, or

479
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 2: if we're looking at a secular turn here. And I

480
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,640
Speaker 2: think the answer is we want to know that too.

481
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 2: They don't have an answer.

482
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 7: And that's the reason he said that he made this

483
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:44,879
Speaker 7: point again, that's the reason we're being careful and cautious

484
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 7: and not rushing to cut rates. Even though we've seen

485
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 7: this big improvement in inflation. We still feel pretty good

486
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 7: that things are on track. Nobody was saying, you know,

487
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:55,879
Speaker 7: that we shouldn't cut rates at all this year, or

488
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 7: certainly no one's saying that we need to think about

489
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 7: hiking again. But but there's there's no rush to do it.

490
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 7: They want to be really sure.

491
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 2: Spending time with Kate Davidson here on balance of power,

492
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 2: is the market more aligned with the Fed now? I

493
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:13,920
Speaker 2: mean we were pricing in Madhouse compared to what Jay

494
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,360
Speaker 2: Powell was actually saying and what the Fed was projecting

495
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,439
Speaker 2: until somewhat recently. Are we more in line when it

496
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,680
Speaker 2: comes to the idea of two to three cuts this year?

497
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it certainly seems so.

498
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 7: Right. I don't think that the FED chair yesterday was

499
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 7: doing anything to try to adjust or push back on

500
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 7: market expectations. Again, he repeated the line that we heard

501
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 7: him say in January that it will be appropriate to

502
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,199
Speaker 7: cut rates if the economy evolves is expected at some

503
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,919
Speaker 7: point this year. That leaves them a lot of room, right, Joe, Like, Obviously,

504
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 7: the thing about the dots is that there are only

505
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 7: so many meetings, right, they'll meet on They'll have a

506
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 7: decision on May first, they'll have one in June, July,

507
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 7: and then we're getting close to the end of the

508
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,119
Speaker 7: year or September. We have November meeting in December. So

509
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,679
Speaker 7: if they're going to go three times, and presumably, as

510
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 7: we've heard a couple of officials imply, maybe they want

511
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,239
Speaker 7: to go every other meeting, we don't really know what

512
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 7: the cadence will be, but that starts to that that,

513
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 7: you know, I think the options for how they want

514
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,360
Speaker 7: this to proceed, the options start to get more limited

515
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 7: the further along we get in the air.

516
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 2: I'm old enough to remember emergency rate moves, like between meetings.

517
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 2: Doesn't he just want to do that for the thrill,

518
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,439
Speaker 2: Just just go away, just keep driving with an empty

519
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 2: tank of gas, rip that thing out later this year

520
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 2: and declare victory.

521
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:29,959
Speaker 5: I don't know if they're really going for thrills over

522
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 5: there at the bat.

523
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 7: I think that's the opposite of what they want to do, right,

524
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 7: and you want to too exciting.

525
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 2: It is kind of amazing, though, because I have to

526
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,160
Speaker 2: admit it sounds like you're telling me that the soft

527
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 2: landing is going to happen or is happening.

528
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it wouldn't we all answer that.

529
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:44,640
Speaker 7: We'd all love to hear J Powell say yes, we've

530
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,200
Speaker 7: done it, and lawmakers tried to get him do that

531
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 7: when he was in Capitol Hill, like they're just never

532
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 7: they're just never going to do that. But look at

533
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 7: those economic projections. I mean, we focus on the dot

534
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 7: plot the right projections. But I think one of the

535
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 7: really interesting things about yesterday was was what we saw

536
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 7: on their forecast for the economy. So they're still expecting

537
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 7: cut rates three times maybe two, but they see much

538
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,920
Speaker 7: stronger economic growth this year. They see inflation, core inflation

539
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,199
Speaker 7: a little bit higher than they thought it would be

540
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:12,199
Speaker 7: when they met in December, and the unemployment rate a

541
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 7: touch lower. So that's that's pretty.

542
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 5: Incredible, pretty incredible.

543
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, let it ride. Yeah, guess it's the story. Great

544
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 2: to see you. Thanks thanks for coming as always, Kate Davidson,

545
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,639
Speaker 2: helping us understand what Jay Pal's talking about and what

546
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 2: might be coming next year when it comes to inflation.

547
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

548
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo CarPlay and

549
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 1: then roun Ato with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

550
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. Watch us live on

551
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 1: YouTube here.

552
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,439
Speaker 2: I am in Washington, stuck in the swamp. But we

553
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 2: got a bill that showed up at three o'clock in

554
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,640
Speaker 2: the morning, and they're telling us they're going to break

555
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 2: the rules and maybe get this thing done before the

556
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 2: midnight deadline on Friday, and so we won't be talking

557
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 2: about a government shutdown on Monday, but we'll just see

558
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,440
Speaker 2: about that. It could be a brief shutdown along the way,

559
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 2: and we'll see how they do. It's a critical moment

560
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 2: for speaker Mike Johnson, and of course it is for

561
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 2: Joe Biden for so many reasons. Good news today on fundraising,

562
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 2: as we told you, out raising in the latest month

563
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 2: Donald Trump by two to one. And the administration is

564
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 2: imposing new tailpipe emissions, which is a huge story that

565
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 2: I feel like isn't getting enough coverage here. Imagine this,

566
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:31,200
Speaker 2: I mean this is headline material. The strongest ever vehicle

567
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 2: pollution standards in American history, and the idea is to

568
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:39,439
Speaker 2: get automakers to start selling more evs and hybrids. The

569
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 2: question is will that work, because that may not go

570
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 2: exactly as planned. Jenda Louis is with US Bloomberg Energy

571
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 2: and Environmental Policy reporter, and Jenn it's great to have

572
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 2: you back at the table. This is a big one.

573
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 2: We've had a lot of noise with shutdown politics and

574
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 2: a lot of other stuff, but this is an awfully

575
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 2: important story and you could argue is really at the

576
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 2: heart of the Joe Biden can pain message as part

577
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 2: of Bidenomics. But we've seen this reluctance to move into evs.

578
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 2: How would this work and how would automakers have to respond?

579
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 8: Well, these are fundamentally technologically neutral standards. They tell automakers

580
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 8: you have to clean up your cars. You have to

581
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,399
Speaker 8: get rid of the lower the greenhouse gas emissions and

582
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 8: the soet and other stuff, and the exhaust that makes

583
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 8: the air dirty. But it's up to you to figure

584
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 8: out how to do it realistically. Practically speaking, that's going

585
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,159
Speaker 8: to be through plug in hybrids. It's going to be

586
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 8: through battery electric vehicles. Automakers say we can make these cars.

587
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 8: The question is will there be enough charging, will there

588
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 8: be consumer adoption. Does the public really even want it?

589
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 8: And that's one of the open questions as.

590
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 5: We go forward.

591
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 2: Absolutely, so, we've seen some pretty interesting numbers here so far.

592
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 2: Despite the talk that evs get you crunch them in

593
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 2: your story, Battery electrics now make up less than eight

594
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 2: percent of FEUs sales, plug in hybrids barely two percent.

595
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 2: Where would those numbers need to go?

596
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 8: Yeah, by twenty thirty two, you'd really have to see

597
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 8: about two thirds of cars and light trucks having a plux.

598
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 2: Incredible, is that possible?

599
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 3: Usually?

600
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 8: You know, adoption is increasing still despite some gloomy headlines

601
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 8: out of the fourth quarter last year. You know, more

602
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 8: of these cars are being sold even than conventional cars.

603
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 8: Right now. The increase rather in sales is higher than

604
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 8: the increase for conventional cars. There's a lot of enthusiasm

605
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:26,239
Speaker 8: from some quarters for evs that are going to get

606
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 8: cheaper as battery prices come down. So there's a lot

607
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 8: of enthusiasm in some quarters. Of course, there's a lot

608
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 8: of people who are concerned about these rules and say there.

609
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 2: Are unlock a lot, right, That's the first thing you

610
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 2: hear maybe after range To your point, people have concerns

611
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 2: about the charging network, but it's the cost that keeps

612
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 2: it's a high barrier to entry. So obviously the administration

613
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 2: is trying to do that. I'm fascinated by the reaction

614
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 2: of by automakers. Clearly this is not the type of

615
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 2: thing they want to hear, but they were applauding the

616
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 2: addition of hybrids, which seems like a very important part

617
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 2: of this story. We've actually seen hybrids out evs recently

618
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 2: in terms of what people are comfortable.

619
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 8: By right a plug in. Hybrids in particular have taken,

620
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 8: you know, a grown an interest, and that is even

621
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 8: though it's a more expensive set up, you've got two

622
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 8: drive trains instead of just a battery electric approach. You know,

623
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 8: there's their caliliary positive for consumers who are worried about range,

624
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 8: who are worried about finding that next charging station. And

625
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 8: so obviously Detroit and the automakers really wanted this flexibility

626
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 8: and they got it. They got a final rule that

627
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 8: was easier to comply with than the final than the

628
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 8: initial proposal, that was.

629
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 2: A healthy round of lobbying. How did they get it done?

630
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 8: You know, I think the fact that the United Auto

631
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 8: Workers striked last year and and you know, made clear

632
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 8: that they were concerned about the pace of the transition.

633
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 8: Sure that was a factor here, you know for the EPA,

634
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,959
Speaker 8: getting the automakers on board to be sure they're concerned.

635
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 8: They think this is a challenge. A lot has to

636
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 8: go right, right, but getting automakers to at least, you know,

637
00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 8: clap a little bit, means that these rules are more durable.

638
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 8: They're more likely to not get a challenge from the

639
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 8: auto industry and to withstand the test of time.

640
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 2: So we're talking about them changing their lineups essentially. Right,

641
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 2: this is if you're going to essentially force consumers to

642
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 2: buy evs, you need to stop selling cars with gas engines.

643
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 5: Right.

644
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 8: If you're you can have gas models clearly under this rule,

645
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 8: but you're going to have to offset exactly, and you

646
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 8: know the concern that opponents raises. That means those cars

647
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 8: are going to be more expensive, they're going to be

648
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 8: harder to find, and in some areas of the country,

649
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 8: they may be what you really need certainly over the

650
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 8: next few years.

651
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 2: Just coupled with enhancements maybe from the infrastructure law to

652
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 2: extend and make the charging network more continuous.

653
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 8: Right, we are benefiting from and this industry will benefit

654
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 8: from tremendous money that's coming out of both the Infrastructure

655
00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 8: Law and the Inflation Reduction Act that's going into chargers. Obviously,

656
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 8: that's also supporting some battery manufacturing in the US. All

657
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 8: that's supposed to help basically bring this infrastructure along.

658
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 2: Because you can't have one without the other. I guess here,

659
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 2: But look, you know how politics works. If Donald Trump

660
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 2: came back to the White House, this all gets wiped

661
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 2: away as an executive.

662
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 8: Action, right Indeed, I mean this is an EPA rulemaking.

663
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 8: They would have to go through the process of undoing it,

664
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 8: which is something he did last time, and so it

665
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 8: might take a few years. But the fact that automakers

666
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 8: are buying into this revised schedule.

667
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 2: And that's important though a few years, that means they're

668
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 2: going to be altering. They're going to be retooling their

669
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 2: factories already by then, which might be incentive to keep

670
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 2: it in place.

671
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 8: You know, they prefer some certainty, and I think that's

672
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 8: an argument that you would hear them make if Trump

673
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 8: is elected and wants to disband this.

674
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 2: Now.

675
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 8: To be clear, you know, a president Trump might not

676
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 8: care too much about what the automakers want. He may

677
00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 8: also be looking to consumer and what consumers and voters want.

678
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 2: You wonder, Look, it's going to be wherever the wind

679
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 2: is blowing, I guess at that moment. But with his

680
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 2: appeal to UABED members you mentioned the union, those are

681
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 2: a lot of Trump voters not into this EV transition

682
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 2: or at least an accelerated, incentivized transition, and running against

683
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 2: this is music in Detroit.

684
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 8: Right, You know it cuts different ways. Clearly this was

685
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 8: softened partly to deal with those UAW concerns. I mean,

686
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:29,959
Speaker 8: the pitch that the President is making is, look, this

687
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 8: is the future of the industry. The future of cars

688
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:35,239
Speaker 8: is electric. Do we in the US want to make

689
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 8: those cars? Or do we want to let China compete

690
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 8: against us to take our market share? And so that's

691
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 8: the compelling argument that the President is trying to advance.

692
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 8: And went over Detroit with you.

693
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 2: Wonder how Elon Musk feels about this. Not a big

694
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 2: fan of this administration, and frankly, this administration hasn't been

695
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 2: terribly friendly to him. He's not invited to a lot

696
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 2: of EV events that we've seen where GM and Ford

697
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 2: and others are alauded. It's kind of funny though, this

698
00:33:58,000 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 2: whole thing about the hybrids. I guess Toyota was ahead

699
00:33:59,880 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 2: of it's time, right. The Prius is an old car,

700
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 2: but this is what people want.

701
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 8: The plug in hybrids make people excited.

702
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 2: It's hysterical. Jen a great reporting. Thank you for coming

703
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 2: on and talk to us about it. Much the strongest

704
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 2: ever vehicle pollution standards in US history. That's saying something.

705
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 2: We'll see how plays here. Keep your eyes on the

706
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 2: terminal if you want to read more about it. Jenda

707
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 2: Louis did a great job with your colleagues here in

708
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:26,439
Speaker 2: the newsroom in moving this forward. I have to talk

709
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 2: about Donald Trump before we go away. By the way,

710
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 2: we are getting an update on Reddit. It looks like

711
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 2: trading will begin a little bit closer to one o'clock,

712
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 2: a little bit closer to the top of the hour here.

713
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:39,320
Speaker 2: And when it does, you know, wall to wall coverage,

714
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,720
Speaker 2: roadblock coverage here on Bloomberg just stand by. The building

715
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 2: will shake when this thing starts trading. I've got it

716
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:47,760
Speaker 2: up in front of me and we're waiting. But Donald Trump,

717
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 2: he's got an interesting week ahead and I didn't want

718
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 2: to miss out on this. Remember there was a trial

719
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 2: that was supposed to begin on Monday. Is the brag

720
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 2: trial in New York, Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen Hush Money

721
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:00,839
Speaker 2: not going to start on I'm because of a big

722
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 2: evidence dump. We talked about that, thousands of documents dumped recently,

723
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 2: and we're going to get at least a month delay

724
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 2: in the start of that trial. But Donald Trump still

725
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 2: has to be in court, or does he There's still

726
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:12,440
Speaker 2: going to be a hearing on Monday, and he is

727
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 2: going to attend. I'm not sure it's mandatory, but we

728
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 2: could get a trial date.

729
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 1: Then.

730
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 2: We're also going to be waiting to see if he

731
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 2: could meet bond in a separate trial next week. He's

732
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 2: been warning that he may not, and that's why we

733
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:28,839
Speaker 2: bring in Eric Larson for help. Bloomberg Legal reporter with

734
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,319
Speaker 2: us now on balance of power. Eric, great to see it.

735
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:33,359
Speaker 2: I'm curious. We'll pick through these one at a time.

736
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 2: What's going to happen on Monday? Will we get a

737
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 2: new trial date?

738
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 9: It is certainly possible. We don't know for sure if

739
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 9: the judge will get to that. He has a lot

740
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 9: of other issues to get you first, what you alluded

741
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 9: to regarding that evidence stuff, Trump's defense argues that they

742
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:56,720
Speaker 9: got tens of thousands of documents related to the case

743
00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 9: too late. The Manhattan District Turning, which brought this case,

744
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 9: argues that, yes, the documents did come late, and this

745
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 9: thirty day delay that you mentioned is sufficient to look

746
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 9: at those documents, but that their review so far shows

747
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 9: that not many of them are actually relevant and that

748
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 9: this suggestion that the document dump is a huge problem

749
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 9: is completely overblown. So we'll have arguments on both sides

750
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,279
Speaker 9: of that on Monday, And as you said, Trump will

751
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 9: be there.

752
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 2: Does he actually need to go, Eric, I'm sorry, does

753
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 2: he need to attend or is that a campaign event?

754
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 9: My understanding is that he needs to attend all of

755
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,479
Speaker 9: these hearings and that we are expecting him to be there.

756
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 2: Got it fascinating. I need to ask you about the

757
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 2: bond here in the separate this is the civil fraud

758
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,720
Speaker 2: lawsuit of four hundred and fifty four million dollar judgment

759
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 2: against Donald Trump. He's warning that he may not be

760
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 2: able to make bond on this, and I'm hearing from

761
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 2: terminal users here and of course others. As we talk

762
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:05,800
Speaker 2: about this in the newsroom and with our listeners and viewers,

763
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 2: what happens if he can't make it, are we actually

764
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:11,839
Speaker 2: going to be in a world will Letitia James start

765
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:13,800
Speaker 2: seizing Donald Trump's properties?

766
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 9: That's correct, and the state I believe is already gearing

767
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 9: up for that. I mean, this is a judgment that

768
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:26,800
Speaker 9: has been handed down by court following an eleven week trial.

769
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:31,360
Speaker 9: Trump is of course appealing it, but is required to

770
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 9: post a bond for the full amount actually one hundred

771
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:36,359
Speaker 9: and twenty percent of the amount while he appeals. That's

772
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 9: just standard. So he's trying to get an appeals for

773
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 9: to waive that requirement. But if the court doesn't step

774
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 9: in and do that by Monday, this deadline, then the

775
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 9: state has every right to legally try to get that

776
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:53,879
Speaker 9: money through other means, in this case, seizing assets. It's

777
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 9: a process that could be dragged out in court and

778
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:59,879
Speaker 9: start a whole new court process, but it would start

779
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 9: with the Attorney General putting leans on various properties. We

780
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:06,400
Speaker 9: don't know exactly which ones she might target, but clearly

781
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 9: she has actually she has said she will do this,

782
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:12,760
Speaker 9: and Monday is probably when she would start that process.

783
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:17,320
Speaker 2: Absolutely incredible, So March twenty fifth is the deadline. Again,

784
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty percent of a four hundred and

785
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 2: fifty four million dollar judgment. Trump's legal team says he

786
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 2: does not have that money. Is that fair to.

787
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 9: Say, Eric, Yes, they've said that between that this verdict

788
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 9: and their earlier one of the Egene Carroll case, which

789
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 9: was an eighty three million dollar judgment, they did post

790
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 9: a bond in that case. But between those two verdicts

791
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,840
Speaker 9: and just the cash that Trump says he needs to

792
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 9: have on hand to run his business, they said that

793
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:53,400
Speaker 9: he just doesn't have anywhere near Neuf. So the problem

794
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 9: is that these companies that arrange these bonds, their insurance companies,

795
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:00,319
Speaker 9: they won't take his real estate as collateral and they

796
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 9: only want catch. So the state seems to be thinking

797
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 9: that they might actually have to follow through on this

798
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 9: feizure process. You know, they even filed this judgment with

799
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 9: Westchester County near New York. They filed it in the

800
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:20,839
Speaker 9: judgments and leaning sections of the clerk's office there, which

801
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 9: was sort of paves the way for them to try

802
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,880
Speaker 9: to go after Trump's properties in Westchester County, and he

803
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 9: has a couple of big ones there.

804
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 2: Yeah. Okay, so we're talking about Trump National Golf Club Westchester,

805
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:36,879
Speaker 2: and as you report, the mostly undeveloped more than two

806
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 2: hundred acre Seven Springs Estate. Are those the two most

807
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 2: likely targets?

808
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 9: Yes, I believe so. And you know, the Seven Springs

809
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 9: estate is pretty interesting as well, because it really did

810
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 9: feature quite a bit in this eleven week trial in

811
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,919
Speaker 9: which Trump was accused of inflating his asset valuations by

812
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 9: billions of dollars a year for over a decade so

813
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 9: get better terms on loans from banks. So seven Springs

814
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 9: is the property that he had acquired with hopes of

815
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 9: doing a big developments on that about it in nineteen

816
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 9: ninety five.

817
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 2: May never begin, apparently, Eric. Thank you. We'll check in

818
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 2: with you Monday. We'd love to at least Erek Larson,

819
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Legal reporter, with a lot on the line next

820
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:27,320
Speaker 2: week for Donald Trump. Thanks for listening to the Balance

821
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 2: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,

822
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and

823
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

824
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,840
Speaker 2: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.