1
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:05,320
Speaker 1: Good morning. It's Wednesday, the twentieth of September here in London.

2
00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:08,960
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Daybrecate podcast. I'm Caroline Hepka and.

3
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:11,280
Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. The rate of UK

4
00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:15,280
Speaker 2: inflation unexpectedly cools, raising the prospect that interest rates could

5
00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:16,280
Speaker 2: be close to their peak.

6
00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:19,239
Speaker 1: The Mayor of London tells us that Rishi Sunak is

7
00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:23,239
Speaker 1: weaponizing climate change, as the Prime Minister considers delaying a

8
00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:26,160
Speaker 1: ban on the sale of combustion engines.

9
00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,800
Speaker 2: And as electric vehicle sales saw in the EU, Ursula

10
00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:33,040
Speaker 2: Vanderline warns that China's massive subsidies need to be investigated.

11
00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:35,440
Speaker 1: Let's start with a round up of our top stories.

12
00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:40,720
Speaker 1: Britain's inflation has unexpectedly fallen to the lowest level in

13
00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:44,800
Speaker 1: eighteen months, easing pressure for further interest rate hikes from

14
00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:48,319
Speaker 1: the Bank of England. The consumer price INDEGS rose by

15
00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:50,959
Speaker 1: six point seven percent from a year ago in August,

16
00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:53,440
Speaker 1: but that was less than the six point eight percent

17
00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:55,920
Speaker 1: gain the month before, and it was well below the

18
00:00:55,960 --> 00:01:00,720
Speaker 1: seven percent that economists had expected. Bloomberg's UK corus Lizzie

19
00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:04,679
Speaker 1: Burden says it's good news for central bank policy makers

20
00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:05,240
Speaker 1: in the UK.

21
00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:08,200
Speaker 3: We've heard the chief economists of the Bank of England, Huepill,

22
00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,880
Speaker 3: talking about us reaching the peak of table mountain, maybe

23
00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,600
Speaker 3: the end of the rate rises, and it makes it

24
00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:16,759
Speaker 3: easier that that could be the case tomorrow.

25
00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:20,560
Speaker 1: Bloomberg'slazy Burden says that the latest data may still not

26
00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:23,319
Speaker 1: be enough though to stop another quarter point interest rate

27
00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:27,040
Speaker 1: increase tomorrow, given that inflation is still more than three

28
00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,080
Speaker 1: times the bank's target of two percent.

29
00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:31,959
Speaker 2: The Mayor of London has offered a stinging rebuke of

30
00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:35,759
Speaker 2: Conservative Party plans to roll back some green policies, calling

31
00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:39,279
Speaker 2: it lazy politics from a weak prime minister. Richie Sunac

32
00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,600
Speaker 2: says he wants to implement climate pledges in a quote

33
00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:45,720
Speaker 2: more proportionate way. It's understood Sinax considering delaying a ban

34
00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:47,840
Speaker 2: on the sale of new patrol and diesel cars until

35
00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:51,240
Speaker 2: twenty thirty five. Speaking to Bloomberg, London's Mayor, City Can

36
00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:52,840
Speaker 2: derided the move and this.

37
00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,680
Speaker 4: Is basically, you know, lazy politics from a weak prime

38
00:01:55,720 --> 00:02:00,280
Speaker 4: minister throwing red meat to his backbenches because he so.

39
00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:01,080
Speaker 5: We can in effectual.

40
00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,440
Speaker 2: That's not only Can who's been pouring scorn on the idea.

41
00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,400
Speaker 2: The former Conservative business secretary and COP twenty six president

42
00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:12,119
Speaker 2: Alek Sharmer says the change won't help economically or electorally.

43
00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:15,440
Speaker 1: The head of the European Commission says that the EU

44
00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:19,960
Speaker 1: needs to investigate massive subsidies that China gives its electric

45
00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,799
Speaker 1: vehicle industry. The comments come as the EU's latest car

46
00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:28,560
Speaker 1: sales data shows electric vehicles exceeded twenty percent of overall

47
00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:32,000
Speaker 1: sales for the first time in August. As If Onderlion

48
00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:35,960
Speaker 1: told Bloomberg that the Bloc won't accept unfair competition.

49
00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,200
Speaker 6: We want the level playing field for our companies, and

50
00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:43,160
Speaker 6: what we see is massive subsidies in the EV sector

51
00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,440
Speaker 6: in China, which is of course unleveling our playing field,

52
00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:49,840
Speaker 6: and we do not accept this in the internal market

53
00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:52,920
Speaker 6: for our companies, so we do also not accept it

54
00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:54,520
Speaker 6: for Chinese companies.

55
00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:59,360
Speaker 1: Rondallian's comments come after the European Commission announced the anti

56
00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:03,120
Speaker 1: subsidy of destigation last week, which could lead to tariffs

57
00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:07,320
Speaker 1: on made in China evy imports. Beijing has called the

58
00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:11,400
Speaker 1: move a naked act of protectionism and could restrict access

59
00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:12,639
Speaker 1: to Europein exporters.

60
00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:16,480
Speaker 2: In response, the Federal Reserve is expected to pause rateikes

61
00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,120
Speaker 2: today for the second time this year, while leaving the

62
00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:22,360
Speaker 2: door open for another increase as early as November. With

63
00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:25,720
Speaker 2: the inflation still well above the fed's two percent target

64
00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:29,200
Speaker 2: and the US economy resilient, officials made pencil in one

65
00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:33,320
Speaker 2: more hike in their quarterly projections. Bridgewater Associates co Chief

66
00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:37,160
Speaker 2: investment Officer Karen Carneal Tambor says the FED may be

67
00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:39,520
Speaker 2: slower to cut rates than many expect.

68
00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:43,440
Speaker 7: The bar is high to either raise or lower rates

69
00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:45,880
Speaker 7: from where we are today. When you look at what

70
00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:49,240
Speaker 7: it takes to get fast rate declines, usually you need

71
00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,280
Speaker 7: the economy collapsing pretty quickly. There's a sense of urgency, right,

72
00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,200
Speaker 7: economies collapsing sense of urgency, lower rates as fast as

73
00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,320
Speaker 7: you can. That's very far from where we are today.

74
00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:01,240
Speaker 7: We don't have a collapsing economy create that, and inflation

75
00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:04,240
Speaker 7: is still uncomfortably high. It's not as as it was.

76
00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,480
Speaker 7: It has been coming down, but the impetus for I

77
00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:09,520
Speaker 7: got a lower rate quickly is certainly not there.

78
00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,920
Speaker 2: You can hear that full conversation with Karen Carneel tambora

79
00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:16,680
Speaker 2: accorded at the end of August on the latest episode

80
00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,840
Speaker 2: of Bloomberg Wealth of David Rubinstein will bring you their

81
00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:22,720
Speaker 2: FED rate decision live here on Bloomberg at seven pm

82
00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,200
Speaker 2: London time, followed by Jern Powell's press conference thirty minutes later.

83
00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,799
Speaker 1: Now, the Confederation of British Industry has postponed its annual

84
00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:34,680
Speaker 1: meeting at the last minute over concerns about cash flow.

85
00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,039
Speaker 1: Poomberg's You and Potts reports.

86
00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,000
Speaker 8: The CBI is long beeing, Britain's biggest business lobby group.

87
00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:42,440
Speaker 8: Now Sky News reports it's thought to be as little

88
00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,520
Speaker 8: as four weeks away from running out of money. Up

89
00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,520
Speaker 8: until early this morning, the CBI's website listed it's AGM

90
00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:51,839
Speaker 8: due to kickoff today at ten am, but the business

91
00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,920
Speaker 8: group told members yesterday its big annual meeting is being

92
00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,440
Speaker 8: postponed due to cash flow issues. Its money problems come

93
00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:01,760
Speaker 8: after dozens of the UK's biggas company suspending engagement with

94
00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,159
Speaker 8: the CBI in the wake of a series of allegations

95
00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:07,320
Speaker 8: of serious sexual misconduct to the group in London. I'm

96
00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:08,680
Speaker 8: you in Pots of Bloomberg.

97
00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,840
Speaker 1: Radio President Joe Biden is calling on world leaders to

98
00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,720
Speaker 1: stand with the Ukraine in its war against Russia. He

99
00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:19,160
Speaker 1: made the appeal at the UN General Assembly in New York.

100
00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:22,720
Speaker 9: If you allow Ukraine to be carved up, is the

101
00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:27,520
Speaker 9: independence of any nation secure? Hid respectfully suggest the answers, No,

102
00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:30,599
Speaker 9: we have to stand up to this Neked aggression today

103
00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:33,320
Speaker 9: and the tour other would be aggressiors tomorrow.

104
00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:39,080
Speaker 1: Biden's remarks attracted applause from UN delegates, including his Ukrainian counterpart,

105
00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:42,720
Speaker 1: Valdomei Zelenski, who was in the audience. Concerns have been

106
00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:46,080
Speaker 1: growing over the cost of backing Ukraine's fight, with Kiev's

107
00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:50,920
Speaker 1: forces struggling to make major battlefield gains. Boomberg understands that

108
00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:54,080
Speaker 1: one G seven official sees the war lasting as long

109
00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:57,360
Speaker 1: as seven years, and says that allies need to plan

110
00:05:57,600 --> 00:05:59,720
Speaker 1: financially to continue supporting.

111
00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:05,080
Speaker 2: Consumers accidentally caught a glimpse of Microsoft's future video game

112
00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:09,760
Speaker 2: plans after the tech giant mistakenly provided confidential information to

113
00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:12,960
Speaker 2: a federal court website. The details were part of the

114
00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:17,760
Speaker 2: FTC's antitrust suit against its takeover of Activision Blizzard, including

115
00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:22,520
Speaker 2: unannounced games under refreshed Xbox console. The information has since

116
00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:23,240
Speaker 2: been removed.

117
00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:25,840
Speaker 1: Those are our top stories for you this morning. On

118
00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,799
Speaker 1: the markets. European stocks are currently up by three tenths

119
00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:31,880
Speaker 1: of one percent, forty one hundred shares also gaining six

120
00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,640
Speaker 1: tenths of one percent. Two year Treasury yields trading at

121
00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,880
Speaker 1: five sports zero eight. The big move though markets a

122
00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:41,920
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half basis point decline for two year

123
00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:45,120
Speaker 1: UK guilt yields now trading at four point eight five percent.

124
00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:48,559
Speaker 2: The story linked to those inflation numbers we were talking

125
00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:51,640
Speaker 2: about from Bloomberg opinion column of some More and Summerset

126
00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,000
Speaker 2: Web this morning writing about the slump in the buy

127
00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:56,480
Speaker 2: to let market. So we know that rents have been

128
00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:58,920
Speaker 2: going up at an almost record pace, in fact twelve

129
00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,680
Speaker 2: percent year on year, thirty percent hiresince the start of

130
00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,000
Speaker 2: the pandemic, but the number of people who are willing

131
00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,120
Speaker 2: to stay in the by to let markets splickly take

132
00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:11,120
Speaker 2: out to new mortgages has slumped. Obviously, rising rates is

133
00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,080
Speaker 2: a big problem. Add to that, marrin Somerset Web says

134
00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:19,040
Speaker 2: rising regulatory costs, incoming net zero rules, few extra wealth taxes,

135
00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,160
Speaker 2: and the risk that rent control could pose to the

136
00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:26,320
Speaker 2: income on these properties as well. And essentially many because

137
00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:27,960
Speaker 2: a lot of we're talking about a lot of small players,

138
00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:30,000
Speaker 2: and we talk about the vite let market are saying

139
00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:32,560
Speaker 2: it's not worth it and pulling out. But that creates

140
00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,080
Speaker 2: a whole different problem, is that the supply in the

141
00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:38,480
Speaker 2: market shrinks, rents keep going up, and you're present potentially

142
00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:40,160
Speaker 2: presented with a rental crisis.

143
00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:43,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, rent on issue, aren't they. I mean there's

144
00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:47,280
Speaker 1: a problem with landlords, with upgrading old buildings, with the

145
00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,720
Speaker 1: cost of renting, you know, with how you professionalize it,

146
00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,880
Speaker 1: with climate change coming. But I just wonder whether we're

147
00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:55,920
Speaker 1: going to really get anything out of this government of

148
00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,680
Speaker 1: Chuca's government. You know, this is a fraught issue. And

149
00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,600
Speaker 1: lady we're talking about ris you talking about sort of

150
00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,920
Speaker 1: rolling back some green pledges seeing that as a win

151
00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:08,640
Speaker 1: electorally potentially for the Conservatives.

152
00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:09,160
Speaker 8: Yeah, we'll be.

153
00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:11,320
Speaker 2: Watching to see what the parties say about this when

154
00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:13,840
Speaker 2: we get closer to the election. Let's get more details

155
00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:16,680
Speaker 2: though on today's big data print. Consumer price inflation in

156
00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:20,240
Speaker 2: the UK unexpectedly falling to the lowest level in eighteen months,

157
00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:23,240
Speaker 2: easing pressure for further rate ikes from the Bank of England.

158
00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:25,360
Speaker 2: We've already seen the market scaling back their bets on

159
00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:27,960
Speaker 2: what the Bank will do next ahead of its meeting tomorrow.

160
00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:32,240
Speaker 2: Let's get more from our senior UK economist, Dan Hansen. Dan,

161
00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,080
Speaker 2: great to have you with us. Is took us through

162
00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,679
Speaker 2: I suppose your reaction to what we saw in the

163
00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:41,240
Speaker 2: data this morning, a slowdown in in core and in

164
00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:42,680
Speaker 2: the headline CPI rate.

165
00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:47,040
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean it was in good morning. Sorry, it

166
00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:48,880
Speaker 10: was a huge surprise, to be honest with you, but

167
00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:52,199
Speaker 10: of course a welcome surprise because we've spent most of

168
00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,160
Speaker 10: this year discussing upside CPI surprises, so it was nice

169
00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,520
Speaker 10: to get a get a downside surprise, I think. So

170
00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:00,480
Speaker 10: you're absolutely right. I mean, the thing that really caught

171
00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,440
Speaker 10: my eye was the core number falling to six point

172
00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,520
Speaker 10: two percent, and beneath that if you look at if

173
00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:09,160
Speaker 10: you look at the breakdown, it looks pretty widespread, so

174
00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,760
Speaker 10: that all important services inflation number fell from seven point

175
00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:16,640
Speaker 10: four percent to six point eight percent. So it's still

176
00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,720
Speaker 10: very elevated, but nonetheless it's finally moving in the right direction,

177
00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:22,599
Speaker 10: particularly when we're thinking about the Bank of England. So

178
00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:25,040
Speaker 10: I think there was there was a lot of good

179
00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,559
Speaker 10: news in the in the release, and of course with

180
00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:31,720
Speaker 10: the with the bank meeting tomorrow, it does throw up

181
00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:33,520
Speaker 10: a bit of a cloud of uncertainty about what they

182
00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:34,679
Speaker 10: might might decide to do.

183
00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:37,760
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely. Do you think that it is going to

184
00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:43,120
Speaker 1: influence their decision tomorrow. I'm just looking at the function

185
00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:46,440
Speaker 1: on the Blueberg terminal that shows what markets expect. I mean,

186
00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,319
Speaker 1: you've seen a big pullback now in terms of the

187
00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:53,120
Speaker 1: percentage probability of a rate height tomorrow out of the

188
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:53,920
Speaker 1: Bank of England.

189
00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:58,439
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, and I think that's obviously the obviously

190
00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:00,880
Speaker 10: the correct reaction to the day. I mean, I think

191
00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:02,319
Speaker 10: there are a few things. I mean, the bank will

192
00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,680
Speaker 10: definitely want to be sure this is durable. In terms

193
00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:09,560
Speaker 10: of the dropping core inflation we've seen, particularly in the UK,

194
00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:11,719
Speaker 10: less so in the Eurozone and the US, but core

195
00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:14,600
Speaker 10: inflation has been quite volatile. It has bounced around. We've

196
00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:17,679
Speaker 10: had upside mainly upside surprises, but now we've had a

197
00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:21,079
Speaker 10: downside surprise as well, so the path down hasn't been smooth,

198
00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:23,120
Speaker 10: so they want to be sure it's durable. I mean,

199
00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:26,760
Speaker 10: in terms of tomorrow, I think there's still enough concern,

200
00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:29,040
Speaker 10: or there will still be enough concern around the pay

201
00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:33,080
Speaker 10: growth data for them to hike again. But I definitely

202
00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:35,760
Speaker 10: think it's a much more balanced decision with this, because

203
00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:37,400
Speaker 10: if you think about it, the pay data or the

204
00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:39,840
Speaker 10: pay growth data is the only thing that's really surprised

205
00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:43,439
Speaker 10: to the upside. Now you've got services inflation surprising to

206
00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:46,280
Speaker 10: the downside, you've got the economy weakening, and you've got

207
00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,040
Speaker 10: the unemployment rate rising fast than they expect. So there's

208
00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:51,439
Speaker 10: a lot of dubbish news on the data front other

209
00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,559
Speaker 10: than the pay growth data. But I think on balance,

210
00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:56,960
Speaker 10: the bank is going to lean towards probably just doing

211
00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:01,839
Speaker 10: one more, just essentially on insurance. But I think that

212
00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:05,599
Speaker 10: beyond that, there's there's a real question about is that

213
00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:06,600
Speaker 10: going to be the last one?

214
00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:07,240
Speaker 9: And is that it?

215
00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:10,079
Speaker 10: And will they will they choose to send a stronger

216
00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,960
Speaker 10: signal that they're going to pause in following tomorrow's hike.

217
00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:18,400
Speaker 2: If it is a hike and a pause, or perhaps

218
00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:21,400
Speaker 2: signaling a pause now and one more hike to come,

219
00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:25,160
Speaker 2: How how soon could we start to think about interest

220
00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:28,480
Speaker 2: rate cut to the BIOI yeah, I mean, that's the that.

221
00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:31,440
Speaker 10: Would be what the main question. And I think actually,

222
00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:33,360
Speaker 10: when you think about tomorrow, that would be one of

223
00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:35,800
Speaker 10: the things the bank wants to guard against having got

224
00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:37,400
Speaker 10: to the peak. The last thing it wants is the

225
00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,240
Speaker 10: debate quickly shift to the timing of the first cut.

226
00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:42,960
Speaker 10: You know, we've heard from Hugh Peel, the Chief Economist,

227
00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,920
Speaker 10: about this idea of table mountain rates staying higher for longer.

228
00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,800
Speaker 10: For that to be an effective strategy, markets need to

229
00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:53,400
Speaker 10: believe that tightening is still potentially on the table and

230
00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,200
Speaker 10: there is a tightening bias. Jay Power has been very

231
00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:59,000
Speaker 10: good at that doing that, the Federal Reserve chair. So

232
00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:02,160
Speaker 10: I think for us at least we think in the

233
00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:05,280
Speaker 10: middle of next year will be the timing of the

234
00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:07,440
Speaker 10: first cut. So our first cuts in the second quarter

235
00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:10,480
Speaker 10: of twenty twenty four. I think the risks are probably

236
00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:12,560
Speaker 10: to it being a little bit later than that. I mean,

237
00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:14,640
Speaker 10: we've had some good news on inflation today, but the

238
00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:18,079
Speaker 10: grind lower is going to take time. Getting down to

239
00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:19,920
Speaker 10: that two percent is going to take a very long time.

240
00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:21,920
Speaker 10: We don't think it's going to happen till early twenty

241
00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:25,280
Speaker 10: twenty five. So I think we've got the first cut

242
00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:27,000
Speaker 10: coming in in the middle of next year. But I

243
00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,640
Speaker 10: think it wouldn't surprise me at all if it was

244
00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:30,800
Speaker 10: delayed all attle bit later.

245
00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:35,120
Speaker 1: Okay, that's interesting, do you think though, I mean that

246
00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:37,680
Speaker 1: the UK's position compared to the rest of the world

247
00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,960
Speaker 1: does remain pretty fraught, doesn't it. I mean, compare us

248
00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:43,400
Speaker 1: to the US and Europe, the inflation picture is still

249
00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:44,000
Speaker 1: very difficult.

250
00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:47,880
Speaker 10: Dan briefly, Yeah, and that's exactly the point. And I

251
00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:49,920
Speaker 10: think that's why they're going to be careful about not

252
00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:53,520
Speaker 10: claiming victory from one inflation number. So I think, you know,

253
00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:55,880
Speaker 10: tomorrow it is likely we're going to get a hike,

254
00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,200
Speaker 10: and they're also not going to be too confident about

255
00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:02,640
Speaker 10: confident about signaling victory. And it's also why next year,

256
00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:05,040
Speaker 10: if there are cuts, they'll be very limited. They're going

257
00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:08,280
Speaker 10: to keep more to keep rates restrictive until infact really

258
00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:09,920
Speaker 10: does get close to that two percent number.

259
00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:12,240
Speaker 1: Okay, Dan, thank you so much for being with us.

260
00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,960
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Senior UK economist Dan Hanson, let's.

261
00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:16,880
Speaker 2: Bring you more now of our interviewed London's mayor City

262
00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:19,160
Speaker 2: Can He says the Prime Minister is week for pulling

263
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,480
Speaker 2: back on green policies. He's been speaking to Bloomberg's Francine Lackway.

264
00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:26,439
Speaker 4: Well, what's happening is some people are trying to weaponize

265
00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:32,640
Speaker 4: climate change, weaponize air pollution. And here's the perversity of

266
00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:34,760
Speaker 4: what Prime Minister Sunac is doing.

267
00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:37,760
Speaker 5: We've seen in the UK and September.

268
00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:41,600
Speaker 4: In London in September, for the first time ever, four

269
00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:46,880
Speaker 4: consecutive days of temperatures north of thurny degrees celsius. We

270
00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:52,480
Speaker 4: saw last year in London temperatures north of forty degrees celsius.

271
00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,520
Speaker 5: Wildfires in London. We've seen across.

272
00:13:55,480 --> 00:14:01,160
Speaker 4: Europe and the global North in America, wildfires, droughts, heat waves.

273
00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:04,360
Speaker 4: The response of government should be actually to turn this

274
00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:09,960
Speaker 4: awful crisis into an opportunity, creating green jobs, a green

275
00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:13,240
Speaker 4: new deal, thinking about how we can both save the planet,

276
00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:16,920
Speaker 4: address climate change, but also give people security and have

277
00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:19,920
Speaker 4: that just transition. And this is basically, you know, lazy

278
00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:24,160
Speaker 4: politics from a weak prime minister throwing red meat to

279
00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:26,720
Speaker 4: his backbenches because he's so weak and ineffectual.

280
00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:29,400
Speaker 11: Do you think you could have been better supported by

281
00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:30,880
Speaker 11: Kerstarmarch with you guys.

282
00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:34,600
Speaker 4: Well, I recognize that we've got to make sure we

283
00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:39,080
Speaker 4: take people with us. I recognize that addressed people's concerns,

284
00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:42,440
Speaker 4: but concerns. But from kir Starmer and the Labor Party,

285
00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:45,440
Speaker 4: what I would hope to see and we are seeing,

286
00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:47,040
Speaker 4: is plans to.

287
00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,800
Speaker 5: Address the climate emergency. You've got an announcement from the

288
00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:50,920
Speaker 5: Shadow of Finance.

289
00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,600
Speaker 4: Secretary Rachel Rehees saying, you know what, in the first

290
00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:57,360
Speaker 4: term of a labor government will be invested into the

291
00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,800
Speaker 4: tune of twenty eight billion pounds a year, which is

292
00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:06,280
Speaker 4: a wall terms, akin to more than President Biden's Inflation

293
00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:06,960
Speaker 4: Reduction Act.

294
00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,480
Speaker 11: But Mayor, is it fair to say that you could

295
00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:12,200
Speaker 11: have gotten more support by Drestarma on u les and

296
00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:14,640
Speaker 11: also in the by elections and you haven't because it's

297
00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:16,200
Speaker 11: now a political hot potato.

298
00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:19,280
Speaker 4: But what happened was the by election in Oxbridge and

299
00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,600
Speaker 4: Rice that took place a few weeks before the units

300
00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:26,480
Speaker 4: was expanded. People had judginge concerns which we were addressing

301
00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:29,400
Speaker 4: at the same time people were playing on that as

302
00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:31,880
Speaker 4: well as so. Kier and I are close friends. We've

303
00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:33,480
Speaker 4: flowing to over for more than twenty five years. The

304
00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:36,280
Speaker 4: only thing we disagree about is I support a great

305
00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:38,040
Speaker 4: soccer team, great football team Liverpool.

306
00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:40,560
Speaker 5: He sports a rubbish roun Arsenal okay.

307
00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:42,840
Speaker 11: But apart from football, what kind of advice would you

308
00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:44,400
Speaker 11: give him to win the general election?

309
00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:44,720
Speaker 7: No?

310
00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:45,800
Speaker 5: I don't give care advice.

311
00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:48,280
Speaker 4: You know what I do is I'm a friend to

312
00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:51,920
Speaker 4: care but also an example of what a labor politician

313
00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:55,640
Speaker 4: winning the difference we can make being pro business, supporting

314
00:15:55,680 --> 00:16:00,240
Speaker 4: businesses to flourish and thrived, being pro enterprise, being pro

315
00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:05,600
Speaker 4: fighting a climmergency, being pro clean building, recognoumns, affordable homes,

316
00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,120
Speaker 4: making sure we invest in public transfer and young people.

317
00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,800
Speaker 4: And what do want people to see across the country

318
00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:15,360
Speaker 4: is that that's the difference labor women can make. Compare

319
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:19,880
Speaker 4: to contrast to a Conservative government where there's been economic mismanagement.

320
00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:22,080
Speaker 4: List trust is all from many budget last year, but

321
00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,920
Speaker 4: also a week at ineffectual Conservative leader.

322
00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:28,560
Speaker 11: What can labor now do to be closer to businesses?

323
00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:31,200
Speaker 11: There has been a campaign to actually get them on board.

324
00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:33,520
Speaker 11: I think the latest polls show that they be pretty

325
00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:34,760
Speaker 11: happy with the labor government.

326
00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:35,520
Speaker 10: What would you do more?

327
00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:37,920
Speaker 4: Well, there's two There's two things that people want to

328
00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:42,480
Speaker 4: see from good leaders. One is addressing social injustices, but

329
00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:46,640
Speaker 4: also economic competence, supporting businesses, being proud to spaught businesses,

330
00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:48,760
Speaker 4: being pro businesses.

331
00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,400
Speaker 5: Being pro business. One of the things that we've got

332
00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:51,560
Speaker 5: to have the humility.

333
00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:54,560
Speaker 4: Is politicians to do accept is you know, we don't

334
00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,760
Speaker 4: create the jobs the wealth of prospiracy for often we

335
00:16:57,840 --> 00:16:59,960
Speaker 4: think we do, but we don't. We can create the

336
00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:04,359
Speaker 4: environment where businesses flourish and thrive, and work with businesses

337
00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:07,680
Speaker 4: to be pro well paid jobs, to work with businesses

338
00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:09,560
Speaker 4: to make sure they invest in young people, to work

339
00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,679
Speaker 4: with businesses to train up people to have the skills

340
00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:12,919
Speaker 4: for the.

341
00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:14,360
Speaker 5: Jobs being created.

342
00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:18,520
Speaker 4: My nervousness about the Layer Party is our reputation in

343
00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:23,000
Speaker 4: the recent past has been with anti growth or anti prosperity.

344
00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:27,000
Speaker 4: What KOs Arma Rachel reeves their teams have done is

345
00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:30,479
Speaker 4: to reassure businesses by listening to them that we are

346
00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:31,080
Speaker 4: pro business.

347
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:32,000
Speaker 5: We're back at business.

348
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,200
Speaker 11: As a result, Mayor, sure, should London have gotten the

349
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,359
Speaker 11: rm IPO and was it a kick in the teeth

350
00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 11: not to have done so?

351
00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:39,360
Speaker 5: I'm sorry, hey you the r IPO.

352
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:41,600
Speaker 4: Well listen, But the great thing about you know, London

353
00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 4: is our in the line strengths are still there. We

354
00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:47,040
Speaker 4: you know, even post Brexit, we are still a city

355
00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:49,320
Speaker 4: that has got all the things that businesses need to

356
00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:51,879
Speaker 4: invest in London, to expand in London and to run

357
00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:52,280
Speaker 4: in London.

358
00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:55,080
Speaker 11: Mayor, what are you most excited about in the climate space?

359
00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:55,280
Speaker 7: So?

360
00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:55,840
Speaker 5: Is it green?

361
00:17:55,920 --> 00:18:00,840
Speaker 11: Vard issuance. Can London Financial as a centre actually become

362
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 11: a hub for a green finance and green issuance.

363
00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 4: We started our conversation by you talking about the Ultra

364
00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:10,639
Speaker 4: Amission Zone, the world's biggest clean air zone.

365
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,359
Speaker 5: There are so many exciting things happening in London.

366
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:15,960
Speaker 4: We have the largest amount of electric buses in the

367
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:19,080
Speaker 4: western world, the largest amount of rapid charging points in

368
00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:23,359
Speaker 4: the in Western Europe, bigger party you know, brecon numbers

369
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:26,879
Speaker 4: of trees being planted, rewild in half at taxi electric.

370
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:30,879
Speaker 4: What I'm saying to investors around the globis London is

371
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:35,000
Speaker 4: the green capital of the world. This crisis of the

372
00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:37,960
Speaker 4: clim emergency can be an opportunity. We have a green

373
00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:41,439
Speaker 4: bond in London, more than five hundred million pounds come

374
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 4: to London invest and also at the same time make

375
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,800
Speaker 4: sure that the London Stock Exchange is known as the

376
00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:47,840
Speaker 4: green stock Exchange.

377
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,879
Speaker 11: But may can London do that by itself? If you

378
00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:53,920
Speaker 11: have a government that doesn't really believe in its own

379
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,000
Speaker 11: plasures in the transition I.

380
00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:59,240
Speaker 4: Say this, I said this with the utmost humility and

381
00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:03,159
Speaker 4: no complace. See this government is only here for a

382
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:06,000
Speaker 4: short time in the near future, there's a general election

383
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:08,240
Speaker 4: as soon as it's called. I'm hoping the British public

384
00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:11,199
Speaker 4: gives Labor a chance to be in government. And one

385
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,560
Speaker 4: of the things that Kirstar has done this week, another

386
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:15,680
Speaker 4: good thing is done, is is to set out a

387
00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,240
Speaker 4: direction of travel that with a Labor government will the

388
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,359
Speaker 4: closer in alignment with the European Union. And so what

389
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,480
Speaker 4: I say to people nervous about this ineffectual, ineffective Conservative

390
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,080
Speaker 4: government is their life span is very short.

391
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:29,720
Speaker 5: They'll be out of power very soon.

392
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,560
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

393
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,679
Speaker 2: stories making news from London to Wall Streets and beyond.

394
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,199
Speaker 1: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple,

395
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:43,960
Speaker 1: Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

396
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:47,080
Speaker 2: You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,

397
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,440
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

398
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,639
Speaker 1: Our flagship New York station, is also available on your

399
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:57,320
Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

400
00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka.

401
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,480
Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Us again tomorrow morning for all

402
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 2: the news you need to start your day right here

403
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:05,000
Speaker 2: on Boomberg Daybreak.

404
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 1: Europe,