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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Network,

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Speaker 1: Colin Calherd's podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman. I am

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Speaker 1: going to be joined by my co host, my bff,

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Speaker 1: my companion, professional better from the north coast of England

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Speaker 1: to the south coast of Jersey. Mr Simon Hunter. Hello, friends,

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Speaker 1: nicely done so for this whole podcast chat. I will

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Speaker 1: be talking like this the entire time. It is Masters week.

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Speaker 1: It's a peaceful week, and I'm excited that we're family here.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited that we're talking about the Masters as well.

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Speaker 1: It's an appropriate change in tone of voice. In a

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Speaker 1: few minutes we'll be welcoming on Mr Jason Sobel, the

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Speaker 1: premier golf writer of his generation, unseen at Augusta right now,

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Speaker 1: this entire week covering it for the Action Network. We're

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Speaker 1: super excited. We're gonna talk about some great storylines and golfs.

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Speaker 1: We're going to get our Masters bets and picks in

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Speaker 1: second Masters in six months. But first we're gonna turn

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Speaker 1: up wait for it, the Volume. Get it, Simon, because look,

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Speaker 1: every single week it's even though it's April, there's NFL

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Speaker 1: news and this week the NFL gave us a doozy

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Speaker 1: because we had Sam Donald, twenty three year old, by

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Speaker 1: the way, three year old Sam Donald, grandson of the

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Speaker 1: Marlborough Man, getting shipped out of New York for second

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Speaker 1: round picks, for fourth round picks, for fifth round picks,

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Speaker 1: whatever it is, doesn't really matter. He's out. He's going

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Speaker 1: to a team that we all expected to pick up

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Speaker 1: a quarterback, although Sam Donald was not the guy, the

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Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers. This has massive implication is to me across

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Speaker 1: the draft. It has implications across the rest of the NFL.

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Speaker 1: It has implications regarding what is happening with Deshaun Watson

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Speaker 1: and why he hasn't moved, which we thought would be

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Speaker 1: the quarterback move that was going to get us betting

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Speaker 1: on teams like Carolina or the Raiders or Washington because

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Speaker 1: we thought Deshaun Watson might land there. Clearly not happening

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Speaker 1: anytime soon. Let's unpack this one by one, so as

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Speaker 1: we come onto the air. As we start recording, Simon

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Speaker 1: News broke that a woman who was identified herself has

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Speaker 1: filed criminal charges against Deshaun Watson. This situation, obviously, you

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Speaker 1: and I are not even remotely qualified to weigh in

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Speaker 1: on criminal charges, on civil charges, on civil suits, on

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Speaker 1: what is happening in these complaints against Deshaun Watson. Um,

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Speaker 1: But clearly this is impacting so much about the trade market,

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Speaker 1: quarterback move mint and the rest of the NFL. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and like you just said, we don't have all the

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Speaker 1: facts yet. Uh, this is one of these things. Now

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Speaker 1: that it is a criminal charge, he'll play out in court,

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Speaker 1: and the more we read about it, the whole thing

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Speaker 1: is just alarming. Uh. Like their defense his defense team

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Speaker 1: trying to put out that he had twenty other mssus

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Speaker 1: or massage therapists, say that he had been nothing but

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Speaker 1: nice and polite to them, and so I brought the

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Speaker 1: total of them up to like forty that we know

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Speaker 1: about the people that he gets massages from. So that

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Speaker 1: right there is weird. Um. And the fact that there's

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Speaker 1: criminal charges now it's just heartbreaking because like we talked

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Speaker 1: all that season, we're both huge fans of the Shawn Watson,

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Speaker 1: the way he plays. I mean, if you ever heard

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Speaker 1: of this kid's background, his story, it's truly incredible what

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Speaker 1: he has come from to the life he's built. So

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Speaker 1: it's heartbreak because it sounds like he's got demons and

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Speaker 1: you just feel so awful for these women, like the

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Speaker 1: fact he's had on their lives. So yeah, we're in

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Speaker 1: this asition now where it's it's it's getting scary, it's

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Speaker 1: it feels like I don't want to say what was

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Speaker 1: gonna happen with this guy's career, but like I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: turn it back to football. They're total right now. It's

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Speaker 1: four and a half for Houston, Like, how do you

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Speaker 1: not take that under with what's going on with him?

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Speaker 1: We don't know. I just think there is value on

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Speaker 1: that under. So we're just gonna try to keep this

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Speaker 1: on the football side. And because we don't have all

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Speaker 1: the answers yet, So for me, if the starters, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna fade this Houston team, and I just think it's

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Speaker 1: it's right now, this is by far the worst franchise

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Speaker 1: in football. Everything that's going on there, all the moves

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Speaker 1: they made the last couple of years, it's just truly

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Speaker 1: a fire. And for me, I'm just gonna going against it.

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Speaker 1: So that's that, that's the out look on that. If

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Speaker 1: we want to bring it to a brighter side with

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Speaker 1: Carolina and the Jets, hey man, we're gonna break it

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Speaker 1: down a lot. You're coming up without these quarterbacks. But

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Speaker 1: I don't like what the Jets did. I am. I'm

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Speaker 1: a Sam Darnall believer. Like you just said, twenty three

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Speaker 1: years old, the man was under Adam gaze. Adam Gates

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Speaker 1: is not respected by anyone on I mean, media work, coaches,

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Speaker 1: people just think that guy is a buffoon. So when

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at the whole situation, I'm thinking, this guy

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Speaker 1: he was broken there. Like that whole clip of him

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Speaker 1: saying he was seeing ghosts. I mean that that was

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Speaker 1: that was haunted him for the last two years. So

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Speaker 1: new start for him. For them, it's a great deal.

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Speaker 1: It's two years. If he's a bust, they'll get rid

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Speaker 1: of them. I mean, they guarantee the fifth year. I

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Speaker 1: think it's nineteen million. They're sure. It's only paying them

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Speaker 1: four million dollars, so they still have room to make deals,

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Speaker 1: even though they do have Teddy on contract right now.

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Speaker 1: But I love to move for Carolina for the Jets again,

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Speaker 1: we'll get in the quarterback situation. Why not there? They

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Speaker 1: know they have so many things they need to do.

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Speaker 1: If that's what they want to do with the franchise.

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Speaker 1: They want to start over at draft a quarterback. Who

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Speaker 1: am I to say that's the wrong move because there

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Speaker 1: is a really good croper quarterbacks this year. So if

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Speaker 1: Joe Douglas as a guy target he like for the Jets, great,

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Speaker 1: But for me, this is one of those where it's

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Speaker 1: pretty much just it lowers the value on the Jets

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Speaker 1: upcoming season there. It's one of those arobably looking towards

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Speaker 1: their undercount just because they're in a division. Like we

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Speaker 1: talked about, the Bills have improved, the Patriots have improved,

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Speaker 1: and miamis approved. So the Jets feel like they took

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Speaker 1: a step back. So I still look at them as

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Speaker 1: the fourth seed in that division. What are you now

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Speaker 1: looking at Carolina as a potential overplay like I already

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Speaker 1: made like we talked about, we already been on team

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Speaker 1: because we thought they were and played for Wattson. Sorry,

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Speaker 1: I'm already invested in the Carolina. I'm gonna hold off.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait to bet their team total because I

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Speaker 1: don't think there's gonna be too much moving on it

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Speaker 1: um because I just want to see if they're gonna

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Speaker 1: do anything else, because right now I'm still I'm still

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Speaker 1: a little uneasy about teams that have a guy like

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Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater there and Sam, Like I feel like that's

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Speaker 1: just awkward. That isn't I know they say breeds competition,

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Speaker 1: but I don't really like that whole situation. So for me,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to touch them anymore. But it's still

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Speaker 1: that division is still the Bucks, you know what I mean,

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Speaker 1: Like we me and you know, we don't think the

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Speaker 1: Orange is alright, but with Winston, we still think that

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Speaker 1: the gap between Winston and Brady is so huge that

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Speaker 1: we're still we still like the Bucks for that division.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm not I'm not touching anymore. What do

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Speaker 1: you like about Sam Donald? Why are you a believer?

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Speaker 1: I've seen these little moments he has of off ounce

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Speaker 1: throws pressure in his face that are true, like you're

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Speaker 1: just born with it. Like he he has gifts and

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Speaker 1: at twenty three, the fact that he has three years

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Speaker 1: of the NFL already under he knows what he's looking at.

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Speaker 1: He gets the league. He just got moved to a

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Speaker 1: different team, so he gets out it's a business. I

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Speaker 1: just man, I I just can't get over the fact that,

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Speaker 1: like we're talking about this draft coming up. These quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: Man like Zach Wilson, I can't get over how much hype,

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Speaker 1: Like his agent is the greatest agent ever. But like

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Speaker 1: the fact that he has all these networks, all these

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Speaker 1: guys pumping him like this, Go look at this kid's numbers.

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Speaker 1: He played for three years at b y oh Okay,

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Speaker 1: I get it. He had an incredible year last year.

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Speaker 1: Look at the tape and look at the years before that.

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Speaker 1: So it's one of those where this this kid, I

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Speaker 1: get it. I don't see any gap between him or

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Speaker 1: Darnald Like I think honestly, Darnel coming out of college

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Speaker 1: from USC, a top program against really good competition. When

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Speaker 1: he came out, I had him. I had a higher

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Speaker 1: grade on him than this sec Wilson. So again I

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Speaker 1: think that I'm excited for Sam just because he actually

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Speaker 1: got the chance here, where like Rosen, he didn't get

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Speaker 1: a chance. He was done. And it's one of those

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Speaker 1: where it is scary when you're getting moved like these quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: But again, we have so much time to break all

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Speaker 1: this stuff down for the whole whole summer, but you're

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Speaker 1: gonna see it. I'm gonna be definitely harp enough. Sam

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Speaker 1: Donald because I just love what he's going into the

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Speaker 1: weapons on that team of Carolina. Well, look, you're right,

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Speaker 1: we got a long time to talk about it. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And Zach Wilson is right now the odds on favorite

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Speaker 1: to go to the New York Jets with the number

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Speaker 1: two pick um, which would mean we're going with Trevor

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Speaker 1: Lawrence to the Jags at number one, Zack Wilson to

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Speaker 1: the Jets at number two, and the way the Twitter

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Speaker 1: sphere is talking about it, it could be Mac Jones

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Speaker 1: number three to the San Francisco forty Niners. And it's

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Speaker 1: just going to be an amazing confluence to see how

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Speaker 1: these quarterbacks go, how these teams are impacted, and then

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Speaker 1: what we are doing, because like the trick to winning

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Speaker 1: season win totals, the trick to winning futures is to

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Speaker 1: bet it before all the pieces are done so you

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Speaker 1: can get the best of the number. Um. That's what

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Speaker 1: we've been trying to do since the season ended, for

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Speaker 1: the past couple of months, and at this point, I

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Speaker 1: bet every team's future outs, so I really I can't lose.

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Speaker 1: That's really it, right, and that I'm not telling people

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Speaker 1: a bet anymore because, like I said, me and you've

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Speaker 1: already hit a lot of these. We've gotten the value.

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Speaker 1: I'm not trying to get people out less value at

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Speaker 1: this point in the season. Like we've kind of missed

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Speaker 1: the window where the difference from right now until August

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Speaker 1: it might only be a couple of hundred. So that's

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Speaker 1: why I wouldn't worry too much about if you missed

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Speaker 1: that on these odds, because they're not going to change

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Speaker 1: that much at this point. All right, let's do what

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Speaker 1: we came here to do, which is talked to talk

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Speaker 1: to a man who maybe the most plugged in, the

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Speaker 1: most connected, the most informed, the most celebrated, UH golf

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Speaker 1: fighter of his generation. I think when you talk about

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Speaker 1: golf writers, you talk about Dan Jenkins, and then you

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Speaker 1: talk about Jason Sylwell of the Action Network, who is

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Speaker 1: currently in a closet in Augusta getting ready to record

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Speaker 1: this podcast and hosting his serious XM radio show, through

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Speaker 1: whom he will also be doing day to day golf

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Speaker 1: coverage during the Masters. Yes, Jason, Hello, Chad, Hello Simon.

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Speaker 1: Two things. First of all, I think the intro needs

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Speaker 1: a little work. Let's see if you can pump me

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Speaker 1: up a little bit more, uh, Secondly, yes, it looks

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Speaker 1: like I'm in a closet right here. I will tell you,

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Speaker 1: first of all, this is the most soundproof booth that

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Speaker 1: I could find in the entire place. And also I

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Speaker 1: have basically turned this into my own office. Normally, as

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Speaker 1: on a credential for a writer, like you sit in

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Speaker 1: a spot. There's people next to you, and there's people

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Speaker 1: in front you, behind you, and you've got this little

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Speaker 1: space and it's better than every other media center in

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Speaker 1: the entire world, but you're still just kind of sitting

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Speaker 1: in a seat all day. I have procured an office

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Speaker 1: in the bowels of the Augusta National Press Building, which

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Speaker 1: is unprecedented, honestly, so I am pretty proud of myself

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Speaker 1: that I was actually able to get this spot for

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Speaker 1: the entire week. That's because you are the most celebrated, respected, informed,

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Speaker 1: all freighter of your generation. How's it going to Augusta, Like,

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Speaker 1: just give us some flavor and color. Not having been

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Speaker 1: there for so long, it's great. I was not here

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Speaker 1: in November, so it's been two years to the week

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Speaker 1: that I have been at Augusta, and every time it's like,

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Speaker 1: you know, going to Disney World for the first time,

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Speaker 1: This place is amazing. Everything they do is just first class,

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Speaker 1: top notch. The golf course is going to be fantastic

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Speaker 1: this week. I think that what we saw in November

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Speaker 1: was a very different kind of masters. We saw a

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Speaker 1: soft golf course. There's nothing you can do. It's just

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Speaker 1: going to be. Uh. It's going to be a lot

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Speaker 1: different in November than it is in April. And so

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Speaker 1: this golf course is gonna bite back this week. It's

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Speaker 1: already fast and firm as we talk here on Tuesday afternoon.

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Speaker 1: It has a potential of getting really fast and really

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Speaker 1: firm for this weekend. I think this is gonna be

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Speaker 1: an awesome event. You know what, the Derby. There's always

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Speaker 1: like Whisper Wednesday, right where the horses have run the course.

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Speaker 1: The jockey, the trainers are starting to talk, the gamblers

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Speaker 1: are starting to talk in the stables about who's performing well,

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Speaker 1: who's got good form. Have you been able to see anything,

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Speaker 1: if you've been able to be on the course, see

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Speaker 1: people playing practice rounds, see people on the driving range, chipping,

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Speaker 1: putting whatever. I have not been out there that much yet.

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Speaker 1: I've heard some some rumors, some talk here and there.

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Speaker 1: Dustin Johnson was spraying it, one of the other writers

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Speaker 1: told me. And I actually had a player who was

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Speaker 1: playing with Dustin Johnson before the PGA Championship last year

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Speaker 1: gonna actice round, texting me and saying, wow, DJ spraying

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Speaker 1: it all over the place. Fade DJ this week, and

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Speaker 1: DJ wound up as the fifty four whole leader and

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Speaker 1: finished in second place that week. And so the moral

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Speaker 1: of the story is there's not a whole lot you

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Speaker 1: can see on a Tuesday or Wednesday that should define

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Speaker 1: what you bet on and what you decide on for

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Speaker 1: Thursday and beyond, because um, things change a lot. And

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Speaker 1: I have spoken with players for years and years about

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Speaker 1: you know, a guy on Tuesday is like, man, I'm

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Speaker 1: just not hitting it well. I'm like, well, that's good

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Speaker 1: because it's Tuesday in the tournament hasn't starting for forty

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Speaker 1: eight more hours, so you're not supposed to be hitting

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Speaker 1: it well. And then I've had guys on Wednesday, Man,

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Speaker 1: I'm striping it. I'm like, oh, that's bad news. Striping

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Speaker 1: on a Wednesday. By the time Sunday comes, you can

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Speaker 1: be striping it to get anymore. So, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot to be said for uh watch out

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Speaker 1: for the guys. I always saying, golf, watch out for

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Speaker 1: the uh injured golfer. Be where the injured golfer. And

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Speaker 1: so there's something you said, for beware the guy who's

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Speaker 1: spraying it on a Tuesday and a Wednesday as well,

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Speaker 1: because the world's best players can fix that within a

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Speaker 1: day or two in some circumstances, and if they do,

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Speaker 1: then things can change in a very very quick amount

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Speaker 1: of time. Jason Man, I'm just so happy to be

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Speaker 1: here talking golf with you and talking masters. If it

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Speaker 1: feels like I just remember last year when it didn't happen,

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Speaker 1: I was just like, I need Augusta. It's like, even

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Speaker 1: though I'm not a dire golf guy, it's one of

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Speaker 1: those that it's just it's like the spring is coming.

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Speaker 1: That's that's like the smell in the air, the whole

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Speaker 1: feeling of Augusta. Jim nance coming in. And now that

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Speaker 1: we're back, I have to ask what everyone's been asking me.

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Speaker 1: Have you seen a squirrel on the grounds of Augusta

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Speaker 1: since you've been there? No? No, no, no, no, they

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Speaker 1: don't have squirrels. There will never be. You will not

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Speaker 1: find a squirrelf. Now that that does not happen. I

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Speaker 1: will say big picture and look, I don't want to

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Speaker 1: read too much into this. I want to you know,

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Speaker 1: make it sound like it's too profound or anything like that.

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Speaker 1: But the world has been in a weird place for

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Speaker 1: over a year now, and the fact that it's April,

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Speaker 1: these aliens are blooming, We're in Augusta, they're playing the Masters.

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Speaker 1: There's not a whole lot that's felt normal in the

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Speaker 1: past year plus. This finally feels like some sense of

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Speaker 1: normalcy as they uh, stay here in Augusta. We may

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Speaker 1: be on the second nine and going downhill in sort

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Speaker 1: of world sociology parlance if we if you will, but

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Speaker 1: I think that normalcy and normal is a good thing

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Speaker 1: right now. And this feels, like I said, it just

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Speaker 1: feels normal this week to be back here, uh in

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Speaker 1: April and talking about the tournament and at the prestige

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Speaker 1: of this tournament. When when you're looking at betting these golfers,

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Speaker 1: does that play a role in it where you're thinking

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Speaker 1: about guys who are inexperience, maybe they don't won't feel

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Speaker 1: as much pressure as guys who've been in the tour longer.

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Speaker 1: They can kind of feel that pressure get on the

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Speaker 1: longer stretch, because you know, you know you when the

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Speaker 1: older you get, you don't make a chance, you don't

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Speaker 1: have to win a Master. So I was wondering, do

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Speaker 1: you a factor any of that kind of thing that

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Speaker 1: it's such a it's the it's the one, it's the

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Speaker 1: green jack, and do you factor it into all the

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Speaker 1: handicapping any of these guys. It's not a huge factor

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Speaker 1: for me. I think what I do is look at

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Speaker 1: guys who have struggled for a long time to win

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Speaker 1: this off tournament. Rory McElroy is a great example. He

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Speaker 1: might be the prime example. He has been in the

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Speaker 1: top five on the odds board at the Masters for

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Speaker 1: the last ten years, and so that's a lot of

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Speaker 1: really good, really consistent golf, a lot of really good

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Speaker 1: finishes here at this event, and yet still searching for

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Speaker 1: that green jacket, which would of course complete his career

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Speaker 1: Grand Slam. He'd become the six player ever to join

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Speaker 1: that exclusive club. And so you look at Rory and say,

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Speaker 1: you know what, there's probably a little more pressure, a

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Speaker 1: little more stress on him every time he comes to

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Speaker 1: Augusta because all of that is weighing on him, all

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Speaker 1: of those close calls, those near misses over the years.

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Speaker 1: On the other side of the spectrum, you look at

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Speaker 1: a guy. There's only six players playing for the first

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Speaker 1: time this year, but a couple of a pretty good

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Speaker 1: Will's Alt Tors is a guy that I like, Carlos

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Speaker 1: Ortiz is not a bad player. And so you look

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Speaker 1: at these guys, you know what they're They're just not

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Speaker 1: gonna show up their first time and seriously contend for

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Speaker 1: this title. They might play well, but they're not gonna

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Speaker 1: seriously contend. You're looking for guys in that sweet spot.

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Speaker 1: Justin Thomas again another a really good example. He's played

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Speaker 1: in this event six times and the seventh thought, or

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Speaker 1: excuse me, he's played five previous times. This is his

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Speaker 1: sixth time, and the six times about sort of that

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Speaker 1: sweet spot where guys really start to figure out this

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Speaker 1: golf course, start to figure out how to score at

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Speaker 1: this golf tournament. And Justin Thomas has improved in each

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Speaker 1: of his five previous results playing in the Masters. And

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Speaker 1: so you look at that and say, you know, he's

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Speaker 1: a guy that's certainly trending in the right direction. Here

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Speaker 1: there are other guys that are trending the right way.

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Speaker 1: And you look for guys that kind of have those

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Speaker 1: patterns to them at this golf course over the years.

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Speaker 1: So I listened to you and uh uh, Justin Ray

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Speaker 1: on the podcast on the Action Network podcast, you had

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Speaker 1: a very interesting premonition where you went to bed. There's

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Speaker 1: four names that I want to talk about, Okay, four

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Speaker 1: specific names. Um, I want to talk about Justin Thomas,

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Speaker 1: what you talked about a little bit. I think there's

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Speaker 1: a deeper dive to do there. I want to talk

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Speaker 1: about Jordan's speeth. I want to talk about John rom

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Speaker 1: and then I want to talk about brooks Kepco. The

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Speaker 1: first thing I want to do is talk about your premonition.

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Speaker 1: You went to bed before you wrote your massive Master's preview,

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Speaker 1: thinking you were locked in on one thing. You woke

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Speaker 1: up in the morning with a different mindset. What happened? Okay,

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Speaker 1: so the whole story is for weeks now, I've been

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Speaker 1: planning to take Jordan's Speed as my favorite outright play

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Speaker 1: here at Augusta. What happened was Jordan's beef went and

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Speaker 1: won the Valero Texas Open on Sunday, and the entire

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Speaker 1: world is on Jordan's Speed and what I found at

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Speaker 1: least in the Gulf space over the years, is that

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Speaker 1: in the non Tiger Woods category, when everybody is taking

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Speaker 1: one guy, you better take somebody else. When they zig,

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Speaker 1: you've got a zag because it just doesn't work out

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Speaker 1: that way. I still love speed this week. There's just

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Speaker 1: a little bit from Sunday's final round that I didn't love.

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Speaker 1: And again, I was listening on the radio. The whole time.

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Speaker 1: I was listening to PGA to a radio and so

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Speaker 1: I wasn't actually watching it because I was driving up

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Speaker 1: to Augusta. But they talked about him fighting that right

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Speaker 1: to left ball flight and eventually just playing a fade

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Speaker 1: the entire day off the tea. Well, Augusta National is

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Speaker 1: a draw golf course. You've got to be able to

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Speaker 1: work the ball right to left. If he cannot figure

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Speaker 1: out in these three practice days how to work the

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Speaker 1: ball right to left off the tea, I think that's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a little trouble for Jordan's speech that said

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Speaker 1: I still really really like him. I don't really see

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Speaker 1: a scenario in which he isn't at least on the

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Speaker 1: leaderboard and in the mix coming into this one. So

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Speaker 1: I was planning to take Jordan's speed. And then I

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00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,919
Speaker 1: started driving. Jordan's speed started winning, and I started thinking,

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Speaker 1: and like, man, Jordan's gonna win this thing, and everyone's

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Speaker 1: gonna be on Jordans. I can't do it. It just

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Speaker 1: feels like I'm jumping on the bandwagon now. Three weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: it would look like, Wow, you're taking it. Jordan's it's

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Speaker 1: the winning. He hasn't winning years. Why are you taking

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Speaker 1: him now? It's like, oh, yeah, of course you're taking

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Speaker 1: Jordan just one. And so I said, I gotta get

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Speaker 1: off this bandwagon. So I started thinking about Xander Shoffley,

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Speaker 1: who hasn't played well lately, but I really like him

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Speaker 1: in big time events. In fact, as I was driving,

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Speaker 1: I texted Justin Ray and said, talk me out of

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Speaker 1: taking Xander Shoffle is my favorite play this week. And

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Speaker 1: he sent me a whole bunch of stats and he said,

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Speaker 1: I can't do it. I really like him. He's I'm

402
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 1: looking for something, and other than he hasn't played great

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Speaker 1: in his last three or four starts, I don't have

404
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Speaker 1: a reason to talk you off of Xander Shoffley. I said,

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Speaker 1: all right, well, I guess I'm righting Xander Shoffly. I

406
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Speaker 1: got back to the rental house that night and sat

407
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Speaker 1: down and started writing. I was writ until to to

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Speaker 1: thirty in the morning and went to bed with Xander

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Speaker 1: Shoffly at number one on my list. I don't know

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Speaker 1: what I dreamed about that night. I'm not sure if

411
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Speaker 1: it was a dream and nightmare, what was going on.

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Speaker 1: I woke up at seven o'clock in the morning and like,

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Speaker 1: eyes wide awake, go, Nope, it's John Rom. It's not

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Speaker 1: Xander anymore. It's John Rom. Uh. I don't know why.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how. Maybe it's sort of the John

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00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 1: rom baby thing got in my mind. Um, if you

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Speaker 1: haven't heard, John Ram's wife was pregnant with their first child.

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Speaker 1: He had said a few weeks ago, if the baby

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Speaker 1: does not come by masters week, I'm out, you know.

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Speaker 1: If if if it looks like the baby's gonna come

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Speaker 1: that week, then I'm just gonna pack up and leave.

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Speaker 1: If she goes into the labor well. They had the

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Speaker 1: baby on Sunday. He was able to be with them

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Speaker 1: for a day or two and then come here to

425
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 1: Augusta and should be fine. And in fact, that's the

426
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 1: exact same scenario that Danny Willett had five years ago

427
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,400
Speaker 1: looked like he was gonna miss this event. The boy

428
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 1: was born early and he made it and he made history.

429
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:42,200
Speaker 1: So I do like those parallels for John Rome this week.

430
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 1: And so yeah, I within a four and a half

431
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 1: hour spend where I wasn't even awake, my first pick changed.

432
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:51,120
Speaker 1: And maybe there's a lesson that for some betters out there.

433
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 1: I think you have to remain flexible. You have to

434
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 1: remain malleable with your plays, especially in golf. It's this

435
00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:58,879
Speaker 1: is not a football game where you just look at

436
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:00,880
Speaker 1: and say, well, it's either this side or that side.

437
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 1: I'm committed to this side, so I'm gonna stick with

438
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 1: them and not backtrack on my play in golf where

439
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 1: there's eight eight players in the field this week, it's okay.

440
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 1: If on Tuesday you really like somebody and then on

441
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 1: Wednesday said, you know what, I also might want to

442
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 1: back him, and then after the first round, going into

443
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 1: the second round, you know what, I'm gonna pick him

444
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 1: up live and add him to my card as well.

445
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,360
Speaker 1: That's okay. And I think we have to remember that

446
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,160
Speaker 1: just because we like a guy at one point coming

447
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 1: into the event, that can't be our only guy. And

448
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 1: we don't have to stick with him the entire time.

449
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 1: And I saw attitude. I saw a really interesting, interesting

450
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 1: statistic that for the Masters, it's been glaring how often

451
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:42,360
Speaker 1: it's only guys in the top fifty that win. So,

452
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 1: but I'm just looking at value guys. Is that one

453
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 1: of the things I should look at? What I shouldn't

454
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:48,440
Speaker 1: go above the top fifty guy? Should I just play

455
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:50,919
Speaker 1: that that like that that number works out that you

456
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 1: have to be in the top fifty to win the Masters.

457
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 1: Should I ride that trend? You will absolutely see the

458
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 1: top fifty player in the world win this week, especially

459
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: this tournament where there's just not as many other players

460
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 1: outside of the top fifty who are in the mix. Um,

461
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 1: I would venture to say you'll probably see a top

462
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,439
Speaker 1: twenty type player win this golf tournament. I mean, there

463
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 1: are a lot of really good players in the world.

464
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 1: I love a handful of guys for top ten, top

465
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 1: twenty type plays. What we saw last year, and we've

466
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 1: seen it over the years. In fact, twenty seven percent

467
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,400
Speaker 1: of the players who finished in the top ten over

468
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 1: the last ten years here at Augusta National had odds

469
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 1: of the triple digits or longer coming into the week.

470
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 1: For our right odds and so, Um, there's definitely some

471
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,360
Speaker 1: value there if you're looking at guys just to make

472
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,640
Speaker 1: it onto the leaderboard just for prop that's like that,

473
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 1: if you're looking for a winner, I just wouldn't look

474
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 1: that far down the line. I wouldn't look past guys

475
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 1: at for the most part, thirty five to one. There's

476
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 1: a couple of guys who are experienced, and I just

477
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 1: think their numbers are too big right now. Adam Scott

478
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,040
Speaker 1: has been drifting to about seventy five to one, and

479
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 1: I think he's still pretty decent play because that guy

480
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 1: can win a golf tournament any given week. Jason Day,

481
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:07,919
Speaker 1: who's close to a hundred to one in some books,

482
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 1: I think there's some value on Jason Day, who can,

483
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,119
Speaker 1: again any given week go win a golf tournament. But

484
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 1: for the most part, if you just want to sprinkle

485
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 1: a bunch of big play outrights that you know, hey,

486
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 1: if I win, I'm gonna get rich this week, we'll

487
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: see what happens, they're just not gonna hit. Save those

488
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 1: for the Texas Open, save those for the RBC Heritage

489
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 1: next week. Um, save those for the events where those

490
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,639
Speaker 1: players can indeed go out there and have a chance

491
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: of winning. It's just it's not gonna happen this week.

492
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 1: If you really want to dig deeper and find some

493
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,959
Speaker 1: guys that you like at bigger prices, just take them

494
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 1: for top tens, take them for top twenties. I think

495
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 1: that because there's so many um bets out there, because

496
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 1: there's so many different books offering so many different things,

497
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 1: you can find some pretty good prices if you shop

498
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 1: around for guys to uh just fit those problems. So

499
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: you and Justin talked about you mentioned Jordan's speed, and

500
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 1: you guys on the Action Network podcast talked about speech

501
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 1: and his success at Valerio this past week. But then

502
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 1: heading into augusta one thing that stood out to me,

503
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,639
Speaker 1: and it's actually germane to the conversation Simon and I

504
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 1: had before you jumped on, which was about Sam Donald

505
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 1: is only twenty three years old, but he's already been

506
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 1: in the league for so long that you have a

507
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 1: feeling about, you know him, what his capabilities are. Jordan's

508
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 1: beef is similar, where he came on so fast, so strong,

509
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 1: so hot, winning majors before anybody really knew who he was,

510
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden he's you know, had this

511
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 1: drought that has lasted I think you said one thousand,

512
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:46,399
Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty three days. It started when he

513
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 1: was like twenty three years old and he's only seven.

514
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 1: Justin had a stat on the podcast that he has

515
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 1: had led more rounds at the Masters than anybody except

516
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 1: for the Big Three entire am I accurate? Yeah, that

517
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,240
Speaker 1: is an amazing That's amazing to me that we're talking

518
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:11,639
Speaker 1: about a guy who a lot of people have you

519
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 1: said that he had said how old is Jordan's spiff?

520
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 1: I think people would have said thirty to thirty five.

521
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 1: His Master's career is going to, if he continues on

522
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 1: this trajectory, be historic someday. It doesn't mean he's gonna

523
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 1: necessarily pass or or tie Jack Nicholas with six career

524
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 1: Green jackets, but because he started not just playing it

525
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 1: at such an early age, but succeeding at such an

526
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:40,399
Speaker 1: early age, Uh, just gonna compile numbers that are going

527
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: to take a really long time for people to catch

528
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,959
Speaker 1: up to. I liken it to Sergio Garcia, who, if

529
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 1: you didn't know, is forty one years old I believe

530
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 1: right now and by far the all time leading points getter.

531
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 1: At the Ryder Cup, basically because he started playing the

532
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,440
Speaker 1: thing when he was nineteen years old and hasn't really

533
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: stopped the entire time. I think he's missed one of

534
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,199
Speaker 1: them in that time, so he's just the volume of

535
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 1: matches that he's played in has given him more chances

536
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 1: to go out there and accumulate points. And Jordan's speek

537
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 1: is going to be the same way I mean Tiger was,

538
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 1: of course, uh A prime example of that, Sevy was

539
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 1: to uh Nicholas of course, I mean the greats of

540
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 1: the game. But we put Jordan's speech sort of on

541
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 1: the same pedestal as those guys as far as success

542
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 1: at a young age at Augusta National and really everything

543
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 1: is trending for him in the right direction this week.

544
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:34,120
Speaker 1: I mean, UH, guys talk about peaking four times a year,

545
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 1: and Tiger has said this for two decades, and I

546
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 1: have spent much of those two decades asking some of

547
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,199
Speaker 1: the game's best players, how do you peak? How do

548
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 1: you decide that you want to peak four times a year?

549
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 1: And my favorite answer ever was when I asked it

550
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: Jason Day a couple of years ago, and he looks

551
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 1: at me, goes, I don't know, I just say it

552
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 1: because it sounds good because Tiger says it. But I

553
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 1: have no idea how to get my game to peak.

554
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: He's like, if I'm playing really well two weeks before

555
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 1: the Masters, I don't go whoa, whoa. I better slow

556
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,159
Speaker 1: down and save some of this. He goes, No, I

557
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 1: just keep trying to play well. So there's no real

558
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 1: way to make yourself peak four times a year. That said,

559
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 1: Jordan's beet is definitely peeking coming into this one, and

560
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:17,359
Speaker 1: this is the place where he wants to be peaking

561
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: because his results tend to trend in a very very

562
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 1: good direction. Here speaking of peaking in majors, am I insane? For?

563
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 1: Like in Brooks, keptis so much heading into this. I

564
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,439
Speaker 1: know he's coming off to major knee surgery, but this

565
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,360
Speaker 1: is the guy we've seen in majors performed, So it's

566
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 1: like for people out there, am I being crazy and betting?

567
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 1: Chalk here and Brooks so one. I loved his quote

568
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 1: from the other day. Some reporters quote up to him

569
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 1: on Sunday when he was here in the afternoon and

570
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 1: they asked him about, you know, how's your near? You

571
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 1: definitely gonna play this week? Because he had knee surgery

572
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: just three or four weeks ago. I mean, we didn't

573
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: think he'd be here, and now he's not only here,

574
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 1: but he told the reporters, look, if I thought I

575
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 1: was just gonna come in second place, I would have

576
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 1: just stay at home. I mean, that is a Tiger

577
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 1: Woods like quote right there. I love hearing Brooks say that.

578
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 1: And Brooks has been tweeting out gifts and uh and

579
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 1: and getting his chest puffed out against all these people

580
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: as saying he can't do it. He no player in

581
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 1: golf plays better with a chip on their shoulder than

582
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 1: Brooks Kepta. Usually it's unfounded. Usually it's he's got a

583
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 1: chip on his shoulder for what because somebody said he

584
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 1: might not be the best player in the game. I

585
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 1: mean usually it's like, well, why why does he have

586
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 1: a chip on his shoulder? And he's really good. Everyone

587
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 1: knows he's really good. He wins majors, everyone thinks it's great.

588
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 1: You know, there's no reason to have that. And yet, uh,

589
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 1: this week, there are some people who are doubting Brooks.

590
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 1: They don't think he can come back this quickly from

591
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 1: the knee surgery. Uh, they didn't think he'd be playing.

592
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 1: They don't think he's gonna succeed. And Brooks has got

593
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,479
Speaker 1: this big old Bryson sized chip on his shoulder. He's

594
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 1: gonna take that to the first team with him, and

595
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 1: I don't doubt. I think Simon. The key for Brooks

596
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: this week has come out and play just an even

597
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 1: par round in the first round. Just get out of

598
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 1: there and like you know, feel okay and play well

599
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 1: and get a sense of competition again. Second round seventies

600
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 1: seventy one is fine, one or two under, and he

601
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 1: might be in thirtieth place going into the weekend. And

602
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 1: if he is, I'm gonna hammer hammerd Brooks alive because

603
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: he can go sixty eight on the weekend. That puts

604
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 1: him at nine or ten under, and from all reports

605
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 1: of what the players are saying, nine or ten ender

606
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 1: could win this golf tournament. So I don't put it

607
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 1: past Brooks to go out there and start to prove

608
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 1: people wrong. Whether people are really saying it or not,

609
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 1: He's going to prove him wrong if that's in his

610
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 1: mind that people are saying he can't do it. I

611
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 1: love how Mad Brooks, Kepta and Bryce and Dschambau are

612
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 1: no Bryson is not mad, mad scientist, but he's not mad.

613
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 1: He swings mad. Did you see him at the range yesterday?

614
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,959
Speaker 1: It was staring at him like what are you doing?

615
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 1: It was like those old Baby Brew movies where it's

616
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 1: fed up in black and white. It doesn't even look

617
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 1: like he's doing a sort of form focused, mechanical golf swing.

618
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:16,959
Speaker 1: It just looks like he's, you know, happy fucking gilmouring

619
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 1: out there. Well, he said today it was a good workout.

620
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 1: He was in the interview room and he said, you know,

621
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 1: I just you know, I want to get a good

622
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 1: sweat out there, a good workout. Sure, I don't know. Look,

623
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 1: we all know that length is a major advantage in

624
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 1: this game. If you can hit it further than everybody else,

625
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 1: you are going to have a huge benefit over the

626
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: rest of the field. I think that works less in

627
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 1: Augusta National than most other places. It was a brilliant

628
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 1: plan for Wingfoot last year for the US Open. Honestly,

629
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 1: it's a brilliant plan for every US Open. Bryson should

630
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 1: win five of the next ten U s Opens. That's

631
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 1: the golf tournament where his strategy is just gonna work

632
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 1: better than everybody else's every everyone's gonn miss the fairways.

633
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 1: The fairways are really narrow, and so if everyone misses

634
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 1: the fairway, I'd rather have the guy who's hitting a

635
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 1: ball from one six in the rough than to ten

636
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 1: in the rough. And that's exactly the advantage that Bryson

637
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 1: gets from having that length off the tea and Augusta National,

638
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 1: it doesn't quite work. This is a second shot golf course. Now,

639
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 1: his iron play has been really good this year. Is

640
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 1: putting has been really good this year. Traditionally, is putting

641
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 1: is not good on this golf course. And so I

642
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 1: I don't love Bryson this week, but I think he's

643
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 1: a prototypical high floor, high ceiling, low floor guy. This week.

644
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 1: I think I can see anything from Bryson winning by

645
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 1: five to missing the cut this week. And that's what

646
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 1: makes him so intriguing as sort of an X factor.

647
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 1: I guess I just feel like I watched him swing,

648
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 1: and you know, there are people who play the long

649
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,479
Speaker 1: game and people who just go balls out right, and

650
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 1: I watched him swing, and to me, it encapsulates. Here's

651
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 1: a dude who's saying, fuck it, I don't care what

652
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 1: this is gonna do to my body. I don't care

653
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 1: the what impact it has in the length of my career.

654
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 1: I'm going to swing as hard as I can, win

655
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 1: as many golf tournaments as I can, and it doesn't

656
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 1: matter how long I end up playing. This is how

657
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 1: I think I can win the most in the shortest

658
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 1: amount of time. That's the biggest criticism of Bryson is

659
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 1: that the people, the public, the common man, will sit

660
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 1: out there and say he's not gonna be able to

661
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 1: do this for twenty more years. On hold on, hold on.

662
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 1: I'm not criticizing it. I'm saying I'm not saying you.

663
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: I'm not saying you. I'm saying just the public. These

664
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 1: are the tweeters who will tweet me after I tweet

665
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 1: something about bryceon, oh, he's not gonna be able to

666
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 1: keep this up forever, to which I know Bryson would say, Actually,

667
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 1: I've I've asked Bryson. Bryson says, well, I'm healthier now

668
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 1: than I've ever been before, so why can't I keep

669
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: doing it? Which is a fairly good answer. And my

670
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 1: answer to it is any of us in our careers,

671
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 1: if you have a chance to strike while the irons

672
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 1: are hot, and you have a chance to really build

673
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: on something in your career, and you know that, Hey,

674
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 1: I might not have great longevity, but I might be

675
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: able to retire at an early age after giving it

676
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 1: all I had and making as much money and making

677
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 1: the most out of my career in my prime years.

678
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 1: Who's going to say no to that? Um? And I

679
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 1: love what Bryson has done. I spoke with him for

680
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 1: an article last year that we wrote sort of based

681
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 1: on our de facto slogan with the Action Network bet

682
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 1: on yourself. And I said, Bryson, you know you've really

683
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 1: you've bet on yourself here in your game. You're a

684
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 1: top ten player in the world. And said, you know what,

685
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:37,840
Speaker 1: if I want to become a number one player in

686
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 1: the world, I need to change my body. I need

687
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 1: to change how I train, I need to change how

688
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 1: I swing. I need to change everything about what I'm doing.

689
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 1: He did that knowing the risk was involved that he

690
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 1: might never be good again. He might just become forty

691
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:58,400
Speaker 1: pounds heavier and have a a really fast swing speed

692
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,040
Speaker 1: and never be able to make a put, never to

693
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 1: be able to chip the ball, and may never find

694
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 1: any success again. Within a year, within two years, he

695
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 1: was a US Open champion, he was a top five

696
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,399
Speaker 1: player in the world, so his bet has paid off

697
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:14,720
Speaker 1: in dividends so far. Now, I know that the Augusta

698
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 1: it's kind of not a crap shoot, but like you

699
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:19,319
Speaker 1: just said, there's always guys you can take long shot

700
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 1: odds to finish in the top ten. Are there any

701
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 1: guys that you really focused on that you're You're like, Okay,

702
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 1: I can see scenario this guy playing into Sunday and

703
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 1: having a chance to finish in the top ten that

704
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 1: are like really good odds before the tournament starts. This

705
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 1: isn't much of a long shot. He's played really well

706
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 1: this year. He's got three top five finishes in his

707
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 1: last six starts, and he's played well in Augusta in

708
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 1: the past as well. I think he's got four top

709
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 1: tens and h three finishes of sixth. They're better. But

710
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 1: I love Paul Casey this week just everything is trending

711
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 1: in the right direction. He's not a big number. I

712
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,280
Speaker 1: think you find thirty five to one in most books

713
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 1: right around that price, and so, uh, you know, I'm

714
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 1: not taking a name that's way out of nowhere that

715
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 1: no one's gonna be talking about. But I just think

716
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 1: his game is suited for this golf course. He hits

717
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,280
Speaker 1: the ball with his irons maybe higher than just about

718
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 1: anybody else. So does John rob who's actually my favorite

719
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:10,800
Speaker 1: pick out there. But high ball hitters are going to

720
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,919
Speaker 1: have a huge advantage on a fast, firm golf course

721
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 1: where if you hit it low, there's no telling where

722
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 1: the ball is gonna wind up. You hit it high,

723
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 1: you can control the trajectory, you can control where the

724
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 1: ball is going to land, and I think that's going

725
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 1: to be a major factor this week. So I like

726
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 1: the high ball hitters more so than those low ball hitters. Alright,

727
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:32,479
Speaker 1: So here's the list I got. I want to wrap

728
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 1: this up for people so they can be thinking about

729
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 1: how they want to bet, because at the top, I

730
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 1: would say you're top four, John Ron Jordan's speed, Xander Shoffley,

731
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 1: justin Thomas, Paul Casey might sneak in there well, Paul Calexible.

732
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 1: Paul Casey to me was gonna be okay. If you're

733
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 1: looking for a little more value, then you want to

734
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 1: go with Paul Casey. Uh And then to me, I

735
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 1: also I am on brooks Kepka. I like that one

736
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 1: a lot, just because I like his attitude. I like

737
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 1: the idea of him going back to Augusta, coming off

738
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 1: of nurse sergery knee surgery three days later and just saying,

739
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,400
Speaker 1: fuck you, I'm still the best major player in the world,

740
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 1: and this is what I can do. And look, if

741
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 1: you can get brooks Kepka at anywhere from twenty to one,

742
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,839
Speaker 1: then he's worth a taste. That's what I think. I'm

743
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 1: working on my ranking of the entire field right now.

744
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,320
Speaker 1: Usually have it out by Monday, but I'm doing a

745
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 1: lot of things. I'm doing a lot of work out here.

746
00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 1: So what traffic is flying off the shelves this week?

747
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 1: If you come to hold back a little bit, you kids,

748
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 1: give him everything on Monday morning and let him go

749
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 1: through the whole site exactly. It's it's back a little

750
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 1: overwhelming in any case. Still working on it, but I

751
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 1: should be done soon. Should be posted by Tuesday evening

752
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 1: if my editor gets to it. And I've got brooks

753
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 1: Kepka and I believe eleventh on my list, so that's uh,

754
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 1: that's fright in the mix. You know, certainly I can

755
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 1: see him finishing higher than that. By the way, I'll

756
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 1: give you a few names if you really want to go.

757
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 1: You guys keep asking about long shots, and I really

758
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 1: really haven't giving you long shot long shots to give

759
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 1: you a Paul Casey, which is a sort of mid

760
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 1: upper tier guy anyway. Uh, A few guys that I

761
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 1: really like, Corey Connors, who's about eighty two one right now,

762
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 1: Jason coke Rack who's played great lately, three straight top

763
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 1: tens in his last three stroke play events. Will's Alatoris,

764
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 1: who's playing here for the first time. I have not

765
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:30,760
Speaker 1: seen a number for this, but if you can find

766
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 1: a number anything plus money for Will's Altorius to be

767
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 1: the low Master's debutants, I always think it's weird when

768
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 1: they call him debutant, as if they're going to the

769
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 1: the ball on Friday night, But in any case, they

770
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,320
Speaker 1: call master's debutant. So if you can find Will's Alaturus

771
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:51,320
Speaker 1: as Low Masters debutant at like a plus one twenty

772
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 1: two plus one fifty hammer that I really like that one.

773
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:57,399
Speaker 1: So there there's some guys out there that you can

774
00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 1: find some value on. I don't think any of those

775
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 1: three guys are gonna win in but can they finish

776
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 1: top five, top ten? Just based on what we saw

777
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 1: last year we saw Cameron Smith, Song j M, and

778
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:09,839
Speaker 1: Dylan for Telly all in top five. They were all

779
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:12,879
Speaker 1: triple digit odds going into the event. Ct PAN finish

780
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 1: in the Sheriff's seventh place. He was a thousand to one.

781
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: I mean, if you had just, uh, just a top

782
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 1: ten play on ct PAN at last year's Masters, would

783
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 1: have covered every other bet you made. And that's why

784
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:25,720
Speaker 1: I was asking, because like, that's what I love about golf,

785
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 1: Like you just said, in football, like you just get

786
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 1: up Paul Case, You're like, yeah, it's only three thousand,

787
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 1: five hundred. Me and Chad, like the odds of us

788
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 1: said in any bed in the football season, that's plus

789
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 1: three thousand, five hundreds, maybe one every couple of years.

790
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 1: So that was definitely when you said that, just like,

791
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 1: this is what I love golf. Man. I hit one

792
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:44,600
Speaker 1: golf bet and maybe if I said bet like twelve

793
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 1: to thirteen tournaments, I'm like you just said, I'm pretty

794
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:48,799
Speaker 1: much good as long as I've been a hundred each

795
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 1: time good for the season. So that's what I love doing. Man.

796
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 1: I'll probably like five to a thousand dollars. We'll do

797
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 1: a hundred and each guy and a couple of top ten,

798
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,319
Speaker 1: couple of top top five finishes, and I'll do two

799
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:01,279
Speaker 1: or three to win it all. And the golden age

800
00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:04,919
Speaker 1: of Tiger Man that was like his was always weren't great,

801
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 1: but it was one of those where it's like, man,

802
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,319
Speaker 1: if I just keep investing in Tiger, I'm gonna get

803
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 1: the return. And we're all hoping that with speech. We're

804
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:14,280
Speaker 1: waiting for the next guy. Maybe it's Brooks and or

805
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 1: whoever's gonna come along, the next guy. But it definitely

806
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 1: feels like in this term, like you just said, it

807
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 1: does feel wide open. Like you just said, you gave

808
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 1: him a bunch of guys. That feels like there is

809
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 1: no just one guy that really has the huge advantage

810
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:28,359
Speaker 1: going in. So I'm just really excited about betting these

811
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:30,360
Speaker 1: long shots because I do feel like there is opportunity

812
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 1: this one. I feel like, and granted I was really

813
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 1: not betting on golf. I was trying to wear my

814
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,439
Speaker 1: journalist hat in the Tiger era when he was really

815
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,279
Speaker 1: in his prime. But um, I feel like betting on

816
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,439
Speaker 1: the game is way more interesting now than it would

817
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 1: have been fifteen years ago because Tiger was dominating there.

818
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 1: I went through the archives at one point, Um, I

819
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 1: think it was before bay Hill last year, and looked

820
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 1: at Tiger's shortest odds in the tournament, I believe he

821
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:02,320
Speaker 1: was he was either even money or like a plus

822
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 1: one ten to beat the entire field, like to win

823
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 1: outright at an event. It was maybe like one of

824
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,840
Speaker 1: the events like two thousand three at bay Hill or

825
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 1: something like that, where he had won their six times

826
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:14,440
Speaker 1: already and it was coming in on a heat or

827
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 1: and it was like, how can you better? And then

828
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 1: you look at a football game you say, well, uh,

829
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 1: you know, plus one ten, okay, I'll take them on

830
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 1: the money line, and that that sort of makes sense, um,

831
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 1: And so I it's funny, Simon. I try to keep

832
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 1: that in mind when I look at a guy like

833
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 1: Paul Casey, it's like, wow, he's only plus three thousand,

834
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 1: plus thirty five dred. I don't know. I kind of

835
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 1: want a bigger number that can have her. And then

836
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: you think about every other sport and you're like, I'm

837
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:40,359
Speaker 1: never getting a number like that anywhere else. So, uh, yeah,

838
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:43,280
Speaker 1: there is some value in taking those numbers, alright, fellas.

839
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 1: So well, you gotta get back to work, Simon. We

840
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 1: gotta go make our bets because now we can do

841
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 1: like we did with NFL Futures and just bet the

842
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 1: entire field for the masters. We might have one more

843
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 1: for you. I'm about to go do a one on

844
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 1: one with Phil Mickelson as part of my radio duties.

845
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 1: I just talked to Justin Thomas before we started this spot. Uh.

846
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:03,879
Speaker 1: After speaking with him, I moved him up from four

847
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:07,239
Speaker 1: to three. I believe for now in my rankings. That's

848
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 1: gonna talk to Phil Mickelson and I'll find out where

849
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 1: I should put him. All right, Well, listen, there's nothing,

850
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 1: there's never anything wrong with putting you know, a ten

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00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 1: spot on Phil Mickelson, if only because it would be

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00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,879
Speaker 1: worth the karma investment to see him win and what

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00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 1: the interviews and the celebration around Phil Nicholson would be

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00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 1: because there's no better friend to gamblers in all of

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00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:31,799
Speaker 1: sports than Phil Nicholson. Phil would put ten on you,

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00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 1: So you should put that on Phil, exactly. That's exactly right,

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00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 1: all right. This has been the favorite podcast from the

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00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:43,839
Speaker 1: Volume podcast network. The Volume is now on YouTube will

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00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 1: be uploading new episodes and clips daily, including some past

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00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 1: interviews and moments from all of our shows. Go Subscribe

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00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 1: to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com. Backslash the

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00:42:57,040 --> 00:43:02,319
Speaker 1: volume for Jason Sobel for our assignment Hunter, I am

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00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 1: Shad Milman. Download us from Apple, podcast from Spotify, wherever

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00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 1: you get your podcast. We will be back on Thursday

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00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 1: for the best podcast in the world, The Matt Mitchell

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00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:20,279
Speaker 1: produced Thursday Thunderdome. Until next time, I Love you,