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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan. All right, here we go

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Speaker 1: spreading in the corner.

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Speaker 2: Ten seconds of mating.

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Speaker 3: It just goes show under the basket, under the basket.

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Speaker 3: It's not a seven second the worries, it's the.

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Speaker 1: Crew for the wind.

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Speaker 2: God pick up a miracle.

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Speaker 1: I'm just to the water. Hit that one from the

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Speaker 1: parking lot for the championship shot.

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Speaker 2: Get off.

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Speaker 3: At college basketball, it's.

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Speaker 2: Not the size on the dog in the fight, it's

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Speaker 2: the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 1: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 1: This is the college Basketball Power Conference Tournament betting preview.

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Speaker 1: I'm Stucky in with me as always is Colin Wilson

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Speaker 1: and mister Mike Randall. What's going on, gentlemen? You're calling

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Speaker 1: You're live from a ski lodge right now.

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Speaker 2: I'm live from a ski lodge. I have sequestered myself

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Speaker 2: next to the WiFi. I have told everybody to stay

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Speaker 2: out because we are recording an award winning podcast. And

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Speaker 2: I just won a very narrow Iowa bet on the

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Speaker 2: road against Illinois. That was a nail bier there at

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Speaker 2: the end this Big ten Tournament I think out of

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Speaker 2: all the tournaments, this is going to be the one

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Speaker 2: that's just going to keep giving and giving and giving

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Speaker 2: with tons of entertainment.

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Speaker 3: You know, that's tremendous dedication. That was a nice, nice

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Speaker 3: comeback for you, and I am very happy that Oral

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Speaker 3: Roberts and Nebraska Omaha put them on a neutral site

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Speaker 3: and go way under one hundred and fifty nine points.

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Speaker 3: So it's a good Sunday all around.

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Speaker 1: I think. Yeah, keep in mind, we've already had a

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Speaker 1: few tickets punched to the dance, and you know, Bradley,

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Speaker 1: I can't believe Missouri State they had a shot keep

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Speaker 1: my conference tournament championships final games to be under machines.

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Speaker 1: You know, everything tightens up, It becomes more of a

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Speaker 1: half court game, much more on the line. There's more pressure.

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Speaker 1: Those games. You usually see them steam down in the

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Speaker 1: total too. I was very disappointed to William and Mary

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Speaker 1: today losing to Elon what a dud I had a

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Speaker 1: future and then to go out. I was very happy

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Speaker 1: on the other side. So that's the ugly where I

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Speaker 1: could just say the bad if you do a good,

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Speaker 1: bad and ugly bad was William and Mary. The ugly

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Speaker 1: was betting to Paul. Oh my god, I think they

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Speaker 1: lost by SETI lose by sixty to Province. I love Province,

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Speaker 1: but I mean, and I know Paul Reid didn't play

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Speaker 1: and he was supposed to, but just that was my

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Speaker 1: worst better of the weekend. The good was the highlight

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Speaker 1: of the weekend. Sam Merrill Money Merrill, just absolutely refusing

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Speaker 1: to let his team lose on multiple occasions all weekend.

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Speaker 1: Took over the game multiple times, played every single minute

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Speaker 1: three games and three nights. Malachi flymy while I was resting,

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Speaker 1: What are you resting for two weeks away? It's a

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Speaker 1: championship game? And he took a break in the second half.

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Speaker 1: I guess he was tired. Meryll never lost his legs

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Speaker 1: even though he's a bad knee. And that shot I

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Speaker 1: knew it was going in and Malki flynn. I turned

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Speaker 1: my back. I couldn't watch it. I was like, if

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Speaker 1: I had this much joy, I have a Utah State

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Speaker 1: national title, future, Utah State Mountain West future. I bet

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Speaker 1: Utah State if I have that much joy. I almost

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Speaker 1: jumped through the ceiling when he made it, and then

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Speaker 1: they hit a half quart shot and win overtime. I

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Speaker 1: couldn't watch it, so I turned my back and listened,

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Speaker 1: and luckily it written out I had to see on

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Speaker 1: the replay. But Utah State that is March. That game

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Speaker 1: was March. Everything about it was March. Randall, tell me

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Speaker 1: about your good, bad, and ugly and just overall thoughts

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Speaker 1: on the weekend. I'm sure you're gonna say death tax

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Speaker 1: I think I tweeted this, ay death taxes and Harvard

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Speaker 1: beats yell again. I'm pissed I passed on that because

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Speaker 1: that's becoming just the same old song every time those

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Speaker 1: two teams meet. What do you got?

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Speaker 2: Oh?

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Speaker 3: Come on, man, Yale, King of the Little People, can't

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Speaker 3: beat Harvard. Doesn't matter, no set towns, no price aching.

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Speaker 3: If he walks in to the IVY League tournament, I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna start laughing. They just cannot beat Harvard. That game

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Speaker 3: was not close. Overall, really good weekend. Nice comeback by

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Speaker 3: Wisconsin on the road in Indiana. Very nice to get

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Speaker 3: a share of the Big Ten regular season. Also, how

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Speaker 3: about Kentucky. I wrote that up for action, and I'm

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Speaker 3: seeing that Ashton Hagen's did not make the trip because

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Speaker 3: he wasn't in a good place. And I'm frustrated as heck,

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Speaker 3: but a huge comeback on the road there. They get

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Speaker 3: the outright win by one over Florida without Hagen's which

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Speaker 3: is a huge, huge, huge win for Cali Parry. Only

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Speaker 3: one of the frustrating meal weekend is I hit Nova

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Speaker 3: on the second half because they were rolling against Georgetown.

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Speaker 3: They're up fourteen to nothing whatever it is, right off

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Speaker 3: the bat, and then Georgetown comes back. Nova almost loses

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Speaker 3: that game. I mean, just inexplicable loss there. Overall, pretty

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Speaker 3: good week, but maybe Nova was just looking ahead of

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Speaker 3: the Bags tournament.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. One thing keep in mind with Georgetown is that

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Speaker 1: I actually had some Georgetown pregame when that line got

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Speaker 1: a little out of hand. I mean, they were so Georgetown.

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Speaker 1: Lin's just steam every morning. Every morning. It's like mac

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Speaker 1: mcclong and years that are out and the line will

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Speaker 1: go the other way. I don't even know why they

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Speaker 1: opened them, just wait for the announcement and then open them.

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Speaker 1: But Georgetown doesn't have much depth right, and their legs

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Speaker 1: are starting to These guys are playing so many minutes

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Speaker 1: that are left. But Nova's a snail and Nova doesn't

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Speaker 1: draw foul, so it's actually like a decent matchup for

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Speaker 1: Georgetown in that they won't wear down right like, it's

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Speaker 1: not gonna be an up and down game, and they're

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Speaker 1: not gonna have guys in foul trouble, even though Pickett

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Speaker 1: did end up bailing out. But that's something to keep

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Speaker 1: in mind. We'll get to the Big East Tournament. Colin,

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Speaker 1: let me throw it to you. Any overall thoughts on

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Speaker 1: the weekend. You got to talk about your Hogs too.

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Speaker 2: Woo pig Suey. Colin's talking razorback basketball. Yeah, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: talk about the Hogs.

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Speaker 1: Man.

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Speaker 2: I'm ready to put De Paul to bed. Did I

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Speaker 2: think DePaul plus ten was a good bet? Holy cow?

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Speaker 2: I talked about not showing up in a spot where

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Speaker 2: Providence probably didn't care. The big twelve was West Virginia

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Speaker 2: way to get it home for me. I'm glad that

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Speaker 2: we won that bet. But I took Texas Tech plus

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Speaker 2: three and a half, which you know was kind of

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Speaker 2: the best the number. I think it closed it three

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Speaker 2: and because of a free throw at the end from Kansas,

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Speaker 2: they win by four, So you know, I can't complain.

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Speaker 2: You know, you take South Florida, they win by one,

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Speaker 2: and the spread was one so it just seems like

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Speaker 2: the lines been super sharp for me, and it's it's

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Speaker 2: been a coin flip at the end of each of

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Speaker 2: these games, especially just like what we saw with Iowa

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Speaker 2: and Illinois. And as for the Razorbacks, it's Texas A

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Speaker 2: and M is playing really well and stuck. I know

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Speaker 2: you've mentioned this on the podcast before. This loss is

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Speaker 2: going to be looked at by the Committee as a

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Speaker 2: bad loss, but it's not because Texas A and M

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Speaker 2: is playing much better as of late.

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Speaker 1: And it doesn't matter. This isn't fairy Land. This is

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Speaker 1: the Committee land.

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Speaker 2: This is the Committee Land. And you know, Texas A

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Speaker 2: and M is probably not gonna get any credit for this.

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Speaker 2: And I think they're gonna go on a little bit

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Speaker 2: under the radar as far as what I'm looking at

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Speaker 2: in futures numbers. They're gonna go a little bit under

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Speaker 2: the radar in the SEC tournament. But yeah, Arkansas, you know,

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Speaker 2: if you can shut down one of their best options

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Speaker 2: or they have an offshooting night, they can't beat anybody

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Speaker 2: if they're playing excellent perimeter defense and they're not in

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Speaker 2: foul trouble because that's the only way they know to

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Speaker 2: play defense. And they're hitting on Mason Jones and Isaiah

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Speaker 2: are hitting all their shots. They could beat anybody. So

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Speaker 2: it's just tough at night to night it differs.

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Speaker 1: Yep. But you've mentioned West Virginia. Man, that place is

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Speaker 1: a zoo when there's a big game there. I mean

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Speaker 1: you have people in the crowd. It looks like a

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Speaker 1: drunk zoo. You probably have. I mean West Virgo is

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Speaker 1: gonna get calls there, which helps how they play, you know,

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Speaker 1: their pressure style defense. It's just such a boost for

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Speaker 1: them when they play in that environment. You also have

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Speaker 1: Huggins staring down the rets. You probably have people in

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Speaker 1: the in the crowd flashing shopguns at the refs like

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Speaker 1: and then they go on a run and Baylor can't

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Speaker 1: score for like ten minutes, and then it just increases

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Speaker 1: and builds and builds. That's a fun place to watch

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Speaker 1: a game, just on TV. I got to get there.

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Speaker 1: I've been there for many football games, but man, that's

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Speaker 1: that's one an environment for a great, you know, high

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Speaker 1: level top twenty matchup in basketball.

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Speaker 2: I don't know how Wyoming super fan it was his name,

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Speaker 2: Ken Wyoming Ken was it the guy that were just

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Speaker 2: barrel senders? Yeah, we got to get hit. We gotta

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Speaker 2: get Wyoming fast tracked in the tournament, just for that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. By the way, I was talking to a friend

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Speaker 1: earlier today about superstitious ways to check scores. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if you guys have ever done this, but he

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Speaker 1: mentioned he did it, and I was like, wow, I

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Speaker 1: think I'm the I thought I was the only one

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Speaker 1: who does this. Every once in a while, if, like

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Speaker 1: you know, a game is not on TV, or even

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Speaker 1: if it is on TV and I'm not feeling great

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Speaker 1: about it and it's like at the end and I'm

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Speaker 1: watching something else, I will go to like Twitter and

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Speaker 1: search the team's name and then like refresh and look

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Speaker 1: for updates on what happened, or go to that teams

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Speaker 1: Twitter page and see if they tweet, because usually they

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Speaker 1: tweet like good news. Any superstitions score tracking ways that

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Speaker 1: you have, are you pretty standard randall anything?

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Speaker 3: Oh? I feel good now. I mean I was doing

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Speaker 3: that with Bethune Cookman like every game this year, So

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Speaker 3: now I feel like I'm actually normal. Absolutely, if it's

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Speaker 3: a delay and you're not getting the update, absolutely I

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Speaker 3: go to the local Twitter, go to the feed there.

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Speaker 3: Maybe you have like a fan page, or something. I

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Speaker 3: just keep hitting refresh.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, yeah, no, but sometimes I do it just to

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Speaker 1: that's how I want to get the update. Like I'm

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Speaker 1: going to close my action at and this is how

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Speaker 1: I'm going to get the update, and I want to

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Speaker 1: see it from some fan either screaming I will do

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Speaker 1: that everyone at count anything similar for how you check

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Speaker 1: scores or superstitions.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, definitely worse for me during college football season

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Speaker 2: and the things that I do when it comes to scores.

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Speaker 2: When teams get down or over unders aren't looking good,

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Speaker 2: I go it's an old baseball superstition because I played

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Speaker 2: so long. I go and change clothes, or I go

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Speaker 2: and put on lucky socks, or I'll go do laundry

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Speaker 2: with the volume like extremely low.

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Speaker 3: I refuse to.

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Speaker 2: Look at the TV. I may go out on my

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Speaker 2: back four maybe listen to it while i'm, you know,

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Speaker 2: sweeping the back like I do other things around the house,

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Speaker 2: and I pace and I clean the house. I have

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Speaker 2: the cleanest house in the world after college football Saturday.

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Speaker 1: That's great. All right, Well, let's get to what you're

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Speaker 1: all here for. Can we get serious now? Today We're

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Speaker 1: going to cover all of the conference tournaments ACCED, Big twelve, SEC,

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Speaker 1: PAC twelve, Big East, Big ten. We're going to talk

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Speaker 1: you know, any potential first round matchup to you like,

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Speaker 1: but more importantly futures, who you think is gonna win it.

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Speaker 1: Where the value is. So let's hop right into it

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Speaker 1: and start just chronologically. I think it makes sense to

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Speaker 1: start with the ACC. This starts on Tuesday in Greensboro.

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Speaker 1: I think all the other ones start on Wednesday. The

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Speaker 1: top four seeds get a double buy into the quarters.

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Speaker 1: That's Florida State, who's actually the number one seed. Number

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Speaker 1: two seed is Virginia, number three seed Louisville, number four

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Speaker 1: seed Duke, and then you have five and six. NC

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Speaker 1: State is the five seed, the six seed to Syracuse.

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Speaker 1: The reason I mentioned the top six seeds even though

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Speaker 1: the top four get to go by is the lowest

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Speaker 1: seed to ever win the tournament is a six and

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Speaker 1: the ACC has been around for a long time. You

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Speaker 1: have fourteen seed North Carolina. Someone dm me the other

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Speaker 1: day and said, it is any value in North Carolina

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Speaker 1: seventy to one? I mean, the funny thing is I've

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Speaker 1: seen some other books that have like twenty five to one,

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Speaker 1: which is a joke. I mean, UNC is not that good.

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Speaker 1: They're playing better of late, they're healthier, but they have

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Speaker 1: to win five games in five days. So I know

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Speaker 1: the ACC is down this year. I mean seventy to

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Speaker 1: one year. A UNC fan or you want to take

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Speaker 1: a flyer, sure, go for it. But twenty five to one.

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Speaker 1: Twenty to one, and that's because of the name recognition

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Speaker 1: of UNC is absolutely crazy. Let's get into it here.

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Speaker 1: I mean Virginia shocked the world and got up to

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Speaker 1: a two seed by beating Louisville. I mean the team

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Speaker 1: wins another close game, they hit another big three in

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Speaker 1: the final thirty seconds. They got up to the two

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Speaker 1: seed Vills. The three seed Duke is the favorite at

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Speaker 1: plus one forty. Louisville is second a plus three hundred.

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Speaker 1: Florida states at plus three fifty in Virginia's at plus

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Speaker 1: six hundred per Westgate, You're going to see some varying odds.

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Speaker 1: Westgate North Coronta is sixty to one. First, I'll throw

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Speaker 1: out to Randall Randald overall thoughts on the ACC. Who

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Speaker 1: you like to ultimately cut down the nets, who you

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Speaker 1: can see as a potential sleeper.

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Speaker 3: If I go pod by pod, I think Florida State

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Speaker 3: got a really nice draw here, whether it's Clemson or Miami.

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Speaker 3: I know Clemson beat them, but they pounded Clemson earlier

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Speaker 3: this year. It's always dangerous to me with Florida State

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Speaker 3: and seminal vetting, but I think they have a nice

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Speaker 3: road here to the semi finals. Duke good luck. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you know, obviously I think it's going to be NC State.

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Speaker 3: If it's Wake Forest or Pitt they're going to roll

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Speaker 3: as well. It's a coin flip there, but it sets

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Speaker 3: up well with Florida State. Duke there. Now, if you

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Speaker 3: go to the bottom, this is where I think things

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Speaker 3: can get a little nuts. Virginia Tech, North Carolina. Either

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Speaker 3: one of those teams can beat Syracuse, and either one

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Speaker 3: of those teams can beat what I think is a

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Speaker 3: very soft Louisville team. So whether it's Sarahcuse's own, you

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Speaker 3: gotta find out what's up with Elijah Hughes. But if

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Speaker 3: it's Syracuse's own or North Carolina finally getting it together

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Speaker 3: with the bigs inside, either one of them could make

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Speaker 3: a roll over Louisville. So I'm not gonna have Louisville

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Speaker 3: going far at all, even if they win that first game.

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Speaker 3: Then Notre Dame Boston College. Boston College is terrible. Notre

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Speaker 3: Dame Verus Virginia, eh, I mean, I guess could beat them.

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Speaker 3: That could be a decent matchup for them. But I'm

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Speaker 3: looking here so far at the winner of the Syracuse

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Speaker 3: Virginia Tech North Carolina game, which you mentioned about the future.

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Speaker 3: That team can absolutely make a run. They can beat Louisville,

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Speaker 3: who I think is a little bit of a paper tiger,

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Speaker 3: and then they'd have to play the winner of Virginia,

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Speaker 3: probably Notre Dame. So that's what you're looking at. I

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Speaker 3: think it's wide open. NC State could get hot. They

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Speaker 3: already pounded Duke, so certainly they could make a run.

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Speaker 3: Hard for me to go with Florida State, although I

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Speaker 3: keep thinking back to the Dana Alton in Carrollary. I

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Speaker 3: call it like, finally, is this Leonard Hamilton's time? Is

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Speaker 3: this the time the team is going to put it together?

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Speaker 3: Are the ghosts of not fouling from years ago? In

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Speaker 3: the Elite eight against I think it was Michigan gonna

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Speaker 3: go away? And are they going to make a run

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Speaker 3: here right now? But I get it's dangerous to bet

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Speaker 3: against Duke. They're fired up because Robinson's kid is now scoring.

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Speaker 3: I think that's a little telling to me, like they're

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Speaker 3: relying on him to really give a momentum. So right

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Speaker 3: off the bat, the team that I think could be

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Speaker 3: dangerous is whoever you like coming out of that Syracuse

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Speaker 3: Virginia Tech game, because I think they can get on

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Speaker 3: and run North Carolina either. Also, so that's kind of

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Speaker 3: what I'm looking at. It's Florida State duke and then

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Speaker 3: an upset in the bottom part of the bracket.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, when I look at this, it's at the top.

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Speaker 1: I also, I mean Florida State, Do don't think if

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Speaker 1: you look at them that you're one of the things

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Speaker 1: that's intriguing about them from a future perspective. Not only

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Speaker 1: are they as deep as anyone in the country Leonard

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Speaker 1: Hampleton team usually is, they also have as much length

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Speaker 1: as anyone in the country. I think they're number one

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Speaker 1: an average height on Kim Palm. This is a team that

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Speaker 1: they have no bad losses on the air, right. I

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Speaker 1: mean they lost that at pit which to start the year,

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Speaker 1: weird game as an ACC game to start they lost

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Speaker 1: at Pip by two, but then lost at Indiana. They

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Speaker 1: lost at Virginia at Duke and then at Clemson. That's it. Like,

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Speaker 1: so they haven't really had a bad loss, so I

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Speaker 1: would expect them to get back. I mean Clemson Miami.

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Speaker 1: Clemsons gonna lose to Miami to secure their n T BID.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, but I would think Florida State they

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Speaker 1: would get by the winner of Clemson in Miami. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: maybe not, but they fare well usually interney settings because

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Speaker 1: of how deep they are. It does set up a

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Speaker 1: potential I think a Florida Duke semi final game. But

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Speaker 1: I mean Duke is the favorite of plus whatever. They

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Speaker 1: are one fifty AE plus two, and I don't see

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Speaker 1: any value in that. I mean, they have to play

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Speaker 1: an NC State team that's going to be really hungry

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Speaker 1: who already beat them most likely, and then potentially Florida

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Speaker 1: State or Clemson, a Clemson team that already beat them,

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Speaker 1: and then the championship game three games in three days,

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Speaker 1: and for a Duke team that's been wildly inconsistent, especially

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Speaker 1: away from home, no thanks, plus one fifty plus two

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Speaker 1: hundred Florida State. Also, I mean, when you look at

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Speaker 1: the odds here, I say to myself, Okay, well, Florida

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Speaker 1: State and Duke are two of the three favorites, but

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Speaker 1: they're in the same pod, right, And then there's some

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Speaker 1: potential land mines with some bubble teams. So on the bottom,

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Speaker 1: I look, I disagree with you. I have Louisville as

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Speaker 1: a top ten team. I don't think Virginia can beat

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Speaker 1: them on a neutral court, and they'll get their revenge

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Speaker 1: from recently seeing the pack line. I assume Malik Williams

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Speaker 1: is going to be healthy now, and you know the

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Speaker 1: Syracuse North maybe North Carolina, it just it's still not

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Speaker 1: a great team to me, it's improving in their healthy

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Speaker 1: Virginia Tech to me stinks. And then Syracuse you have

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Speaker 1: Elijah Hughes who sat out the second half at Miami

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Speaker 1: as a concussion or some head injury. Who knows if

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Speaker 1: he's going to play. The team is just not shooting

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Speaker 1: well lately. Normally I would look at a Syracuse watch

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Speaker 1: sixty six seventies fifty to one shot in a tournament

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Speaker 1: setting with that zone. Louisville absolutely shredded, shredded that zone already.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna say Louisville beats whoever comes out of there,

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Speaker 1: then beats Virginia. They don't have to deal with Duke

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Speaker 1: endor Florida State until potentially the final. I hope it's

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Speaker 1: Fada State who beat Louisville twice. I think they get

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Speaker 1: their events, so I think Louisville cuts down the nets.

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Speaker 1: I don't necessarily see much diye in the future in

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Speaker 1: a very top heavy ACC bracket this year. So I'll

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Speaker 1: disagree with you that it's good to have diversity of thought. Colin,

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Speaker 1: do you want to wigan in on anything on the ACC?

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Speaker 2: I would say right now, there's no value on any

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Speaker 2: of the current numbers. I'd agree with you they're stuck

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Speaker 2: because some of these numbers at the West Gate plus

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Speaker 2: one forty on Duke's stay beat him by twenty two

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Speaker 2: all right, way could just beat them not too long ago.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I think Florida State is I got

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Speaker 2: a nice draw with them. It could bet Duke even

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Speaker 2: if Duke survives. So I think that's a really terrible

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Speaker 2: number on Duke Virginia should be more like seven to one.

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Speaker 2: But I agree with the Louisville's gonna beat theimble. Florida

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Speaker 2: State still plus three fifty. And let's talk about this

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Speaker 2: North Carolina because North Carolina is getting a lot of attention,

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Speaker 2: a lot of hype in other places. They're almost dead

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Speaker 2: last of minutes continuity, and they rank around two hundred

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Speaker 2: and eighty six in the nation shooting sixty eight percent

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Speaker 2: from three to free throw. And they expect them to

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Speaker 2: win five games in a row with you know those

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Speaker 2: kinds of stats. That's tough to do, and so I

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Speaker 2: don't believe in this North Carolina hype. I maybe they can,

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Speaker 2: maybe they can do some damage in the first two games,

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Speaker 2: but I agree with you.

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Speaker 3: The Louisville wins that game, you know, I get it. Guys.

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Speaker 3: I guess here's my thing. I could see Louisville making

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Speaker 3: the finals easily. I could. I don't see them winning

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Speaker 3: three games in three nights. Ducky, I'm with you. I

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Speaker 3: would love to get on the Syracuse vandwagon. I just

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Speaker 3: can't because they've lost five of their last eight games,

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Speaker 3: they've lost two of their last three, and they've got

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Speaker 3: pounded in some of these games. Thirteen to North Carolina,

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Speaker 3: twenty four to Louisville. So that's the problem with Syracuse.

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Speaker 3: I think it's tailor made for someone to step forward.

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Speaker 3: But I can't find anyone to be a challenger there.

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Speaker 3: So if Louisville somehow gets through gets a revenge against Virginia,

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Speaker 3: I just it's that last game. So that's the one

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Speaker 3: that I'm struggling with. I'm trying to find you, like

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Speaker 3: you said, Colin, you and say, I just can't get there.

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Speaker 2: You know what I'd like to take. I'd like to

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Speaker 2: take a no number on Duke. I mean, if you're

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Speaker 2: giving plus one forty odds on them winning, then give

405
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Speaker 2: me a minus two hundred on a no. I would

406
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Speaker 2: scoop that.

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Speaker 1: Up easy seat. That guys will sixteen seed when you

408
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Speaker 1: could find that. I've seen some books that offered like

409
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Speaker 1: eight to one, but there's no no on it. It's crazy.

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Speaker 1: Don't please don't bet eight to one that a sixteen

411
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Speaker 1: seed to win. All right? Yeah, I mean Ducal potentially

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Speaker 1: to be DENC State, Florida State, and then Louisville and

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Speaker 1: three straight dates plus one forty no thanks, So I'm

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Speaker 1: probably rolling with Louisville here, who I think has the

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Speaker 1: easiest draw with a bang upt Syracuse team Syracuse also

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Speaker 1: has no bench this year, so we get to win

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Speaker 1: four gays and four days. Just this esecially if Elijah

418
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Speaker 1: Hughes is out, maybe Beeheim shooting under thirty percent from

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Speaker 1: the reasons the start of February, a lot of things,

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Speaker 1: not the Lake about Syracuse. It's been top heavy year

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Speaker 1: in the ACC. I think it continues that way in

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Speaker 1: the tournament. All right, ACC predictions. I'm gonna say Louisville

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Speaker 1: beats Florida State, gets the revenge and Louisville wins it.

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Speaker 3: Randall, I'm gonna say Florida State beats Notre Dame.

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Speaker 1: Wow, there's going out in a limb. Hear to Mike Bride,

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Speaker 1: Baby Colin acc.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the ugliest game possible. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: take Florida State over Virginia.

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Speaker 1: God. All right, let's move on to the SEC tournament now.

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Speaker 1: I want every bit of information that you've got in

431
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:46,360
Speaker 1: this Every lead is that clear. Starts on Wednesday in Nashville.

432
00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:51,520
Speaker 1: The top four seeds get a double buy into the quarterfinals,

433
00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:55,800
Speaker 1: which is Kentucky, the top overall seed, Mississippi State, Auburn

434
00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 1: and LSU. Auburn and LSU are in the same brack

435
00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:04,680
Speaker 1: and Kentucky and Mississippi State are on top at the

436
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:06,600
Speaker 1: West care Right now, Kentucky's plus two to fifty, then

437
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 1: Auburns plus three fifty ls US plus four fifty Florida

438
00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,040
Speaker 1: who doesn't have a bias plus six hundred Arkansas is

439
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:15,439
Speaker 1: twenty one. Mississippi State's eight to one semi intriguing to

440
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,200
Speaker 1: me because they're in the Kentucky bracket. I assume Ashton

441
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,320
Speaker 1: Hagens is going to be back for everything that I read.

442
00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,440
Speaker 1: But Mississippi State, I think because they're in that Kentucky bracket.

443
00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,760
Speaker 1: If they win that, I mean everything opens up, So

444
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:29,400
Speaker 1: maybe there's some value there. But Colin, do you see

445
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:33,800
Speaker 1: any potential sleepers here? Or is this going to be

446
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 1: Kentucky's tournament? Once again? What do you see overall? With

447
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:37,159
Speaker 1: the SEC?

448
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 2: This is Kentucky's tournament? But there are teams that I

449
00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 2: think can rise to the occasion at least get to

450
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:45,760
Speaker 2: the finals with them or give them a challenge in

451
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 2: the semi final. And that's going to present value upon

452
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:50,240
Speaker 2: the number that's out there now. The numbers at Westgate

453
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:53,000
Speaker 2: put out are extremely sharp. So let me go kind

454
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:54,880
Speaker 2: of pod to pod and talk about how I think

455
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,000
Speaker 2: things are going to go. We all's just knock out

456
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:58,840
Speaker 2: all the teams. That are playing in the first round.

457
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 2: I mean Georgia, Ole Miss. I mean, you know Old

458
00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 2: Miss has an advantage in defensive steals. In Georgie's tenth

459
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,000
Speaker 2: and the SEC, I expect them to win. Let's just

460
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 2: throw out all the day one except for Arkansas. Let's

461
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,399
Speaker 2: focus on Arkansas because they have a path. They're a

462
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 2: team to watch. They should be bandied by double digits.

463
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,479
Speaker 2: They got the best player in SEC and Mason Jones.

464
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 2: Mason Jones. South Carolina is the best defensive team in

465
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 2: the conference, but their last and free throw rate. Defensively,

466
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:28,360
Speaker 2: Arkansas is first offensively and free throw rate. They get

467
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,879
Speaker 2: to the line a lot. They forced you to foul,

468
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:33,120
Speaker 2: and it's going They're gonna go against an LSU team.

469
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:35,040
Speaker 2: It's the worst in the conference in defending the perimeter.

470
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,240
Speaker 2: We just saw this with Arkansas. So do I think

471
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,479
Speaker 2: Arkansas can win three in a row? Absolutely? Is their

472
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,560
Speaker 2: number a twenty to one price correctly? Yes? Ken Palm

473
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 2: says they're about a five percent chance of them winning

474
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 2: the SEC tournament. So their priced correctly, and they could

475
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 2: do some damage and get to the semi finals. But

476
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 2: I think that's where it ends. I think the team

477
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 2: we need to watch is Texas A and M, and

478
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:55,239
Speaker 2: you know their first game is going to be a

479
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:58,480
Speaker 2: brutal game with Missouri two of the slowest tempos in

480
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 2: the nation. Texas A and M won both these games

481
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 2: during the regular season. Shouldn't have an issue here in

482
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 2: Missouri's dead last and effective field goal percentage and they

483
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 2: get most of their points from the free throw line.

484
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 2: In Texas A and M doesn't foul anybody. So you

485
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,560
Speaker 2: get past that, you move on to an Auburn team.

486
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 2: And I don't like Auburn at all. I don't know

487
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:15,719
Speaker 2: about you guys, but Auburn is one of the highest

488
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 2: teams in the nation and luck, and they just lost

489
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 2: to Texas A and M at home. I mean, I

490
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:22,440
Speaker 2: don't know if Auburn is just looking ahead or didn't care.

491
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 2: But let's think about this. They ranked seventh in the

492
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,879
Speaker 2: nation in luck because they have four conference wins that

493
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,160
Speaker 2: happen in overtime. They're three hundred and first and three

494
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,880
Speaker 2: point shots. They have a season long thirty point six

495
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,639
Speaker 2: percent has shrunk to twenty eight point eight percent in

496
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,160
Speaker 2: conference play from three. They're a terrible shooting team. They

497
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,200
Speaker 2: don't Texas A and M absolutely can beat Missouri. They've

498
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,439
Speaker 2: done it twice already. They could beat Auburn, they just

499
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 2: did it. And then they're sitting in the semi finals

500
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 2: against a possible depleted and tired Arkansas South Carolina or

501
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,879
Speaker 2: an LSU team that can easily be beat. You know,

502
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,119
Speaker 2: Texas A and M is the team that I'm focusing on.

503
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 2: The numbers should be one hundred to one. Gate I

504
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 2: think is putting fifty to one out there. I think

505
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,320
Speaker 2: that's been hit today and yesterday. I think some other

506
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,159
Speaker 2: people may have the same ideology as this. The number,

507
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 2: according to Ken Palm win probability of SEC should be

508
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:12,160
Speaker 2: one hundred to one because you're gonna have to hedge

509
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,640
Speaker 2: this against Kentucky. It's going to be a monster hedge.

510
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:16,439
Speaker 2: But Texas A and M is who I like on

511
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,119
Speaker 2: the bottom of the bracket. On the top, I love

512
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 2: Missisippi State. I don't like anything about Florida. Old Miss

513
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,360
Speaker 2: can beat them. Old Miss should beat them, and once

514
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 2: all Mis gets to Mississippi State, it's just a really

515
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 2: tough matchup for Ole Miss. Florida has issues with Mississippi State.

516
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 2: I think Kentucky Missippi State could be just written into

517
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:32,919
Speaker 2: the semi finals in which is going to turn out

518
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 2: being a Kentucky versus something whild from the bottom. And

519
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 2: I think Texas A and M is that dark sleep team.

520
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 2: So shop wisely look for eighty to one hundred to

521
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 2: ones better than that on Texas A and M, and

522
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 2: get prepared for a monster hedge against Kentucky.

523
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Kentucky they have. It's not for a

524
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 1: one seed in the SEC. Their first game isn't easy,

525
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 1: per se. I mean you're gonna have to play the

526
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 1: winner of Tennessee. Who's playing better here of lade mean,

527
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 1: they just got rocked at Auburn, which was a weird line,

528
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 1: but they'd just be one at Roup or Alabama, And

529
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 1: you know Alabama is just a very high variance team.

530
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 1: They want to push it. They have John Petty back,

531
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 1: They're going to take a ton of threes. So you know,

532
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 1: to say Kentucky's a lock, and then I assume Haggins's back,

533
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 1: isn't I can't say that here. Usually they are is

534
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 1: the one seed against the eight nine, you know, and

535
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:18,880
Speaker 1: in Nashville they have to play Tennessee. All the Kentucky

536
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 1: fans travel, but you know it's not going to be

537
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 1: completely dominated Kentucky crowd. The tough thing with Mississippi State

538
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:26,880
Speaker 1: is potentially going to have to face Florida and then

539
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 1: Kentucky and then the winner of the bottom half. So

540
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 1: Mississippi State's intriguing to me. But I agree with you

541
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,160
Speaker 1: where the chaos should lie is in the bottom half.

542
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 1: And if you can get an Arkansas at thirty to

543
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 1: one or better, maybe it's worth a shot. There's some

544
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 1: thirty to ones out there. And yeah, Texas A and

545
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: M that the way that they've been playing the Auburn

546
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 1: and LSU or are there just very vulnerable two and

547
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 1: three seeds in the SEC? We've seen it recently with

548
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,119
Speaker 1: some of the losses they suffered. Not great. I mean

549
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 1: LSU is just an horrendous defensive team. LSU also has

550
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 1: no bench, which is something to keep in mind. I

551
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:02,680
Speaker 1: mean they're gonna they do have a bube. I thought

552
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 1: to win three games in three days. So with that

553
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 1: defense with no bench at all, I mean that's where

554
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 1: the loss of Charles Manning I think hurts. I think

555
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,680
Speaker 1: you can cross off las Alburn has a ton of talent,

556
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:17,719
Speaker 1: but yeah, I can't shoot struggle off the line. And

557
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:19,680
Speaker 1: but yeah, I think that's where you want to take

558
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 1: a shot. If you like it the way that texts

559
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 1: A and m's and playing, if you you know, maybe

560
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:25,719
Speaker 1: Randall's going to tell us about South Carolina. But if

561
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 1: you like the potential of Arkansas, they have a really

562
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,919
Speaker 1: clear path with Vanderbilt, South Carolina LSU. You know, winning

563
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 1: with five games in five days is not easy, but

564
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 1: if you can get a thirty one ahead, you got

565
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 1: to basically win three or four games and then you

566
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 1: can maybe potentially headge or they make a magical run. Randall,

567
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 1: what are you seeing in the SEC We.

568
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 3: Didn't talk about this ahead of the time. I agree

569
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 3: with everything you guys said. The path for Arkansas is

570
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 3: absolutely there. The winner of Arkansas South Carolina, I think,

571
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 3: is going to beat LSU. I like Arkansas in that

572
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 3: game for all the reasons you said. Colin Mason Jones

573
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 3: is flammable, Isaiah Joe is back. They guard the arc

574
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 3: very well even if South Carolina wins, because it's Frank Martin,

575
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 3: because they have Mike Cotsar inside, who's a tremendous player.

576
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 3: By the way, he will find his way on an

577
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 3: NBA roster at his size and his shooting ability. Around

578
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 3: the basket, and they have Keyshawan Brian who's probably gonna

579
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 3: win a dunk contest at some point. But the winner

580
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 3: of that game I think is going to beat LSU.

581
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 3: I agree, Auburn doesn't shoot threes well, Auburn doesn't make

582
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 3: free throws well. Texas A and M is absolutely dangerous.

583
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 3: They can make it through and in the top part

584
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 3: of the bracket. I've been in Mississippi State guy all

585
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 3: year long. Reggie Perry can take a game over. There

586
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 3: are very few teams in college basketball to have a

587
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 3: power forward. That's the matchup that is tough to handle.

588
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 3: You have Ben Helin, three straight Final four as, UCLA,

589
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,640
Speaker 3: all that stuff, Tyson Carter Weatherspoon, all the guys who

590
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 3: can make shots. They have the schematic here. It is

591
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 3: Kentucky and if Pagan's comes back. If he doesn't come back,

592
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 3: that's a big problem. And I agree they have a

593
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,199
Speaker 3: very tough first game. But Mississippi State and then the

594
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,680
Speaker 3: winner of South Carolina Arkansas. I like both those as well.

595
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 2: So let's talk about the Mississippi State number because Westgate

596
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:00,640
Speaker 2: has him out at eight to one. Ken pomp says

597
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 2: there's a ten point eight percent chance that Mississippi State

598
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 2: wins the SEC tournament, so the number should be ten

599
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 2: to one. So Mississippi State is a bye on anything

600
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,440
Speaker 2: ten twelve fifty to one if you can find that,

601
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 2: that's a buye not the current eight to one.

602
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:13,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a book I'm looking at right now that

603
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 1: has eighteen to one. There, take it. I think that

604
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 1: there's some value there if you're in Jersey. Points Bet

605
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 1: has eighteen to one. If you're listening, excuse.

606
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 3: Me, guys. Based on that, I'm going to run right

607
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 3: out of here and make that bet.

608
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 1: Thank you for And yeah, I mean, looking there, they

609
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 1: have Arkansas at thirty to one, and you know, A

610
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 1: and M at eighty to one. I don't know if

611
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:34,679
Speaker 1: that's enough for A and M, but yeah, I mean

612
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 1: I plus one seventy five, I mean I just no thanks.

613
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 1: Auburn plus two fifty, no thanks. Florida is just they

614
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 1: just get a ton of respect in the market. So

615
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 1: they're plus four hundred at Points Bet, plus six hundred

616
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,199
Speaker 1: at Westgate. Yeah. So I think that the SEC is

617
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 1: ripe for a potential you know, sleeper to make a

618
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 1: run here because of the top teams aren't that strong,

619
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 1: right you trust Kentucky, but they've shown some cracks at times,

620
00:26:57,840 --> 00:26:59,439
Speaker 1: and they're in eighteen to Florida. They lost at home

621
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,959
Speaker 1: to Tennessee, and you know LSU and Auburn. These are

622
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 1: teams that aren't I don't think top twenty teams. They

623
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 1: have defensive issues. So definitely think it's an SEC tournament

624
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 1: that could be more wide open than usual.

625
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 2: Price Point is uber important. I know this podcast is

626
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 2: about making picks and picking conference tournament winners, but price

627
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,919
Speaker 2: point is just as important because there's implied probabilities with

628
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 2: each one of these teams and you want to get

629
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 2: way better than that because you might hedge, you might

630
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 2: not want to hedge, but shopping for the best number

631
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 2: is always the thing to do with conference tournaments, and

632
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 2: it's a wide market to shop from.

633
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, and we're going to have individual previews on the

634
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 1: Action app and Action network dot Com up for these

635
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: major conference tournaments where we're all give just like you know,

636
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,120
Speaker 1: who we like in a potential sleeper. So we'll talk

637
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,919
Speaker 1: about like, all right, well, if you like this team target,

638
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 1: like for example, Missippi State, they're at eight to one

639
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 1: o Westgate. Yeah, I agree, I don't like that number.

640
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 1: But if you get an eighteen to one points, but yeah,

641
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,640
Speaker 1: I like that number. That's that's a big wide difference.

642
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: So it just it gets back to the point where

643
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 1: having multiple outs multiple look, this is where it's really important.

644
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 1: Right over the course of the season. It's really important,

645
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 1: especially if you want to do this more than recreationally.

646
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 1: It's a difference between a half point here and there

647
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 1: that adds up over time. But if you're just doing

648
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: it recreationally, you probably don't care about that as much.

649
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,400
Speaker 1: But if you want to bet futures and conference tournament futures,

650
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 1: the discrepancy becomes even more magnified. Where you know, over

651
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:19,439
Speaker 1: the course of six or seven conference tornent futures that

652
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 1: you're betting a difference between eight to one and eighteen

653
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 1: to one. Pretty big difference. All Right, SEC predictions. I'm

654
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:29,719
Speaker 1: going to go Mississippi State over Auburn, but I mean

655
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 1: this could be complete chaos or Kentucky. It is a

656
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 1: tough one for me to call. Randall.

657
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 3: Mississippi State over Arkansas.

658
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess I'll go Kentucky over Texas A and M.

659
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 1: There you go a lot of options in the SEC.

660
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 1: All right, so let's move on to the Big Twelve

661
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 1: Conference tournament. Are you going to place a bed or

662
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: what Austin Reeves coming back from what twenty two down?

663
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: He went for forty one in the game winner to

664
00:28:55,880 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 1: beat TCU. O what a game. Oklahoma, as a result,

665
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: has a top six seed. TCUED is not. The top

666
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 1: six seeds get buys into the quarter finals. That's Kansas,

667
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 1: the number one overall seed, Shocker, Baylor, Texas, Tech, West, Virginia, Oklahoma,

668
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: and Texas who finally came back to reality. Who finally,

669
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: I finally, I finally beat Texas. They got absolutely walloped

670
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 1: by Oklahoma State and they're down like forty one point.

671
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 1: But those teams get a buy into the quarters. And

672
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 1: you have Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, and Iowa State,

673
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 1: who also just got wax. They're without Haliburton. They are

674
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:44,719
Speaker 1: just a mess right now. I don't think you can.

675
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 1: I mean, Olahma State's playing a lot better, but given

676
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 1: how good the top of this conference, I think you

677
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 1: can throw out all the teams, the four teams that

678
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 1: don't have a buye part west Gate. Kansas is the

679
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 1: favorite of my minus one twenty five and I have

680
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 1: them still as my best team in the country. Three

681
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 1: points better than the next best team in the nation.

682
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 1: I'll have my updated power ratings out there on Tuesday.

683
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 1: Baylor is at plus two to seventy five. West Virginia's

684
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 1: at plus seven hundred. Texas text also at plus seven hundred.

685
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 1: You know, then you have Oklahoma fourteen to one. You know,

686
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 1: then Texas at sixty to one, Oklahoma state of sixty one. Look,

687
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 1: this is It might not sound fun to me or

688
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: to others, but to me, this looks like just on paper,

689
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 1: I was going through the teams and now it's a

690
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: lot of what's going to depend on the health of Baylor,

691
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 1: Tristan Clark, Mark Viiade, all of the dealing with some injuries.

692
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 1: But to me, this looks like it's going to be

693
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: and this will be fun. Baylor Kansas Part three in

694
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 1: the Championship. West Virginia shows flashes their defenses there, but

695
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 1: the offensive drafts they go through, especially away from Morgan Towner,

696
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 1: they don't have that energy that they can thrive off of.

697
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 1: They could lose to Oklahoma in the first round in

698
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 1: a sixty three game with Oklahoma as the three seed.

699
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,479
Speaker 1: You know, Baylor does play TCU, who the or Kansas

700
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 1: State they just lost to TCU, But I see Baylor

701
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 1: getting through. I don't think anyone could beat Kansas in

702
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 1: the top half. So I see this as very chalky,

703
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 1: and it's Kansas against Baylor. I doubt I'll have a

704
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 1: future here. I'm not a buyer in Texas techs. Many

705
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: of you know I'm not a buyer in Texas, and

706
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 1: I don't trust the West Virginia offense enough. And Western

707
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 1: is gonna have to beat Oklahoma, Baylor, and then Kansas

708
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 1: in three straight days. That's, you know, that's very tough

709
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 1: to do for an offense that struggles, for a team

710
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 1: that struggles with the line as well. So Randall, let

711
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 1: me throw this to you. Overall thoughts, who do you like?

712
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 1: Is there any potential sleeper here that you can see?

713
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 3: Well, the only thing I'm gonna say right off the

714
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 3: bat is I'm taking Oklahoma State. In that first game

715
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 3: against Iowa State, I mean, they're looking at Bolton with

716
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 3: a concussion protocol. Prentice Nickson left the game with an

717
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 3: ankle injury. So right off the bat, I mean, Iowa

718
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 3: State has not won a true road game all year.

719
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 3: They just don't win on the road, So they're going

720
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 3: here to a neutral against Oklahoma State. I like them.

721
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 1: I agree with you. The team is cook. I would

722
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 1: say it's cock. There's any way that they want to

723
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 1: even win, and do you think anyone want to win

724
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 1: and play Kansas gets annihilated, but yeah, there isn't nobody left.

725
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the first line is going to be the

726
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 3: best line that comes after that game. Listen, Texas has

727
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 3: been hot, but they can't back down to earth, So

728
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 3: I think the clock struck twelve there Texas Tech. Texas

729
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 3: is going to be a rivalry battle. I can't see

730
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 3: the winner of that game then beating Kansas. I just

731
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 3: think it's going to take too much out of them.

732
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 3: Texas Tech had their chance there against Kansas, they blew it.

733
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 1: So I don't see Home with an enormous home court advantage.

734
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 3: Exactly, and their shooting struggles have been tough, So I'm

735
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 3: with you. I see Kansas moving on. The only team

736
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 3: that I think you can take a flyer on, maybe

737
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 3: if you like it, is Oklahoma Oklahoma against Baylor. I

738
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 3: certainly Baylor. I see being TC or case State, and Listen,

739
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 3: Baylor has limped here a little bit at the end

740
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 3: of the year, but there's still twenty six and four,

741
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 3: fifteen and three in conference. They had some injuries eighteen

742
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 3: and twelve. Against the spread, they only covered one of

743
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 3: their last four. But Mark Vitel is vitally important. He's

744
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 3: back now. Jared Butler needs to step up for them

745
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 3: to beat Kansas. Tea can make shots, but he's still

746
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 3: been slowed with that wrist injury. I feel like he

747
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 3: hits a shot or too early. Citce he's come back

748
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 3: and then from there it hasn't been great. So I

749
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 3: think the key for them, I'm with you. I think

750
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 3: it's likely Kansas Baylor maybe if you like Oklahoma, only

751
00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 3: because Reeves finally has started making shots. He's been below

752
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 3: thirty percent for three point range for most of the year.

753
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 3: That was a big shot for him. They don't turn

754
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 3: the ball over Oklahoma, so that's a big advantage. But

755
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 3: I've seen Brady Mannic flake out sometimes and they'll have

756
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 3: to have the three guys Reeves, Manick and do a

757
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 3: little have to be on to beat Baylor there. So

758
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 3: it's a tough one to see. But if Baylor gets

759
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 3: Tristan Clark back, he's important there. Six for ten agains.

760
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 3: As a bookie, that's what it has to be I'm

761
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 3: with you, not a lot of futures. Maybe if you

762
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 3: like Oklahoma. We've seen Oklahoma out there fourteen to one,

763
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,719
Speaker 3: I guess if you like that. But probably it is

764
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 3: going to be Kansas and Baylor because Kansas does not

765
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 3: have a tough second round game. They're going to beat

766
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 3: that team whatever comes out of their Texas or Texas Tech.

767
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you said it with Oklahoma. Well, Oklahoma

768
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 1: beat West Virginia twice this year, including at Morgantown by

769
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 1: maybe twice by double digits. And why is that? Well

770
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 1: they match up well, you know, Oklahoma has a little

771
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 1: more consistent scoring. They're great from the line, top twenty

772
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 1: five in the nation from the line. But they also

773
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 1: have a lot of size, which helps against West Virginia.

774
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 1: And you nailed it. They don't turn the ball over

775
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 1: twenty six in the nation in turnover percentage. That's huge

776
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: number one and during conference, but that's huge against West Virginia,

777
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:12,439
Speaker 1: who wants to force you into mistakes so they can

778
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 1: get out and transition and get easy buckets. You know,

779
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:18,760
Speaker 1: the West Virginia's thirtieth in the nation in turnover percentage.

780
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 1: On defense, Oklahoma takes care of the ball. So yeah,

781
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 1: it's a tough first matchup for West Virginia. There's a

782
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,000
Speaker 1: reason that they lost twice, including at West Virginia. And yeah,

783
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: remember this is in Kansas City, so you're probably gonna

784
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 1: have a pro Kansas crowd also, so keep that in mind.

785
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 1: You know, your Texas Techs and your West Virginia's of

786
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,479
Speaker 1: the world, who have who lost to Kansas at home

787
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 1: and they have, you know, two of the best home

788
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 1: court advantages in all of college basketball. West Virginia is

789
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 1: a drunk zoo. We talked about that. Texas Tech's also crazy.

790
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,800
Speaker 1: There's also elevation there. They lost at home to Kansas.

791
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,800
Speaker 1: You know, I know Baylor won at Kansas. A peak

792
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 1: Baylor team fully healthy, you know, one at Kansas and

793
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: could potentially give Kansas a run. But as long as

794
00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 1: the booky stays out of foul trouble, Kansas is that good.

795
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 1: They should in this tournament. Colin anything on the Big

796
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 1: twelve other.

797
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 2: Than the numbers price correctly, because I believe Kansas is

798
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 2: a fifty five percent probability to win the tournament. So

799
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 2: there's no way I'm fading Kansas playing a tournament game

800
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:12,879
Speaker 2: in Kansas City, you know, Brady Mannicut, Christian do Little.

801
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:15,359
Speaker 2: I wouldn't put anything on them because those those free

802
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 2: throws at the end of games, that'll kill you in

803
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 2: conference tournament, That'll kill you in the Big Dance. So

804
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:22,359
Speaker 2: for me, I mean, I hate to suggest laying chalk

805
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 2: on Kansas minus one twenty five, but that is the actual, real,

806
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 2: legitimate price. So if you see at Kansas plus one ten,

807
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 2: that's actually worth some money.

808
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would ta Kansas at any even nod you know,

809
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 1: minus one ten, I would take it. And then if

810
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 1: you want to, because I don't see them getting beat

811
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 1: before the championship. If you want to, and they do

812
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 1: face Baylor and Baylor is healthy, you have a middle

813
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 1: shot if you want it. If you don't even want

814
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 1: to hedge, because Kansas will be like a four point

815
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 1: favorite over Baylor, a higher favorite over Oklahoma or West Virginia.

816
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 3: It is worth noting, though, that Kansas lost that Elite

817
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,839
Speaker 3: eight game to Oregon in Kansas City when Oregon did

818
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 3: not have Chris Bouchet a couple of years ago. That

819
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 3: was the Frank Mason team. I just think because of

820
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 3: their road prowess this year, this is a different Kansas

821
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 3: team that they've been so dominant. I think they're really

822
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 3: going to relish playing that game home.

823
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, if they keep winning all these games that other

824
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 1: teams are losing, it's something that I keep falling back on.

825
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 1: Right that game at Texas Tech, that sets up for

826
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 1: you know, usually an upset loss for the best team

827
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 1: in the country. We're even Kansas State, right, that's Kansas

828
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 1: State super Bowl. There's a brawl at the end of

829
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,760
Speaker 1: the first meeting. You're at Kansas State, crazy environment, you're down,

830
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:26,720
Speaker 1: and they find a way to win that game as well.

831
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 1: West Virginia at West Virginia, crazy environment, they find a

832
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 1: way to go on a late run. Says a lot

833
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 1: about how good this Kansas team is. Predictions Big twelve.

834
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 1: I'm going shaw Kansas over Baylor.

835
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't get Oklahoma past Baylor. I got Kansas

836
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 3: over Baylor.

837
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Kansas over West Virginia. Maybe West Virginia

838
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 2: can finally shoot the ball. Maybe maybe the pressure's off

839
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 2: after getting that win and the PAC twelve.

840
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 1: Wow, gentlemen, what kind of a show you guys putting

841
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 1: on here today. So if you look at the PAC

842
00:36:56,880 --> 00:37:00,840
Speaker 1: twelve tournament, bracket. It's fairly interesting, and it's a tournament.

843
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,319
Speaker 1: It's a conference that's been pretty wide open. I thought

844
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:06,799
Speaker 1: that Arizona had some things figured out, and I think

845
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,879
Speaker 1: I tweeted over the weekend, drunk me, Arizona some things

846
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,879
Speaker 1: figured out four hours ago, you know, four hours later

847
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:13,760
Speaker 1: drunk for me, that was drunk me. It doesn't count

848
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 1: because they lost it over the Washington who seems to

849
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 1: really have things figured out, quid Agreen not coming back

850
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,399
Speaker 1: for the conference when it really hurts, losing their point cord.

851
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 1: But this is a team that just swept at Arizona State,

852
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 1: and at Arizona they were one of the most odd

853
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,880
Speaker 1: you know, the unluckiest team maybe in conference play history.

854
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 1: Just lost so many games by one, two in overtime.

855
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 1: So Washington is on a roll. But they start with

856
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 1: Arizona in the twelve to five game, and Arizona's a

857
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: you know, potentially if they can put it all together,

858
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 1: their top ten team, that's a brutal draw for Washington.

859
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 1: And on top of that, Washington, you know they run

860
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 1: a zone. Now Arizona just saw that zone right, the

861
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:48,080
Speaker 1: unique zone, and they get to see it again. That'll

862
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 1: help the familiarity factor. From an odds perspective, well, I

863
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:53,240
Speaker 1: guess it's from a format perspective. The top four teams

864
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 1: do get a bye, and this is this is in

865
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 1: Vegas starts on Wednesday. Oregon it's the one seed. USC

866
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 1: is the four seed. They both get to buy there

867
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 1: in the top half the bracket, along with the Oregon

868
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 1: State and Utah winner of that game will face Oregon.

869
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 1: Arizona Washington WINNERA will face USC. The top half of

870
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 1: the bracket is really loaded. The bottom half is wide open.

871
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,800
Speaker 1: Ucla is the two seed. We searched late in the

872
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 1: year and someone got the two seed. Arizona State, of

873
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 1: a very vulnerable Arizona State team is a three seed.

874
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 1: Stanford is the seventh seed. Who could argue it be

875
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 1: the best team in this bottom half along with Colorado.

876
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 1: They don't have a buye, so you would presume that

877
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,359
Speaker 1: Colorado gets by Washington State, but I mean Colorado away

878
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 1: from home, it's just been a nightmare, but the town

879
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 1: is there. Colorado gets by Washington State, they'll play Arizona State.

880
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 1: If Stanford gets by Cal they'll play UCLA. Bottom half

881
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:38,959
Speaker 1: looks pretty wide open. Oregon is the favorite at plus

882
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 1: one seventy five. Arizona, despite being the five seed, is

883
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 1: the second highest sides at Westgate plus three fifty Colorado

884
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 1: plus four fifty, even though they don't have a buye.

885
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 1: So you can see these teams who don't have a bye.

886
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 1: Two of the three are listed as the favorites behind

887
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 1: the Oregon colum What do you see here?

888
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 2: Utah didn't win a single game on the road and

889
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,359
Speaker 2: conferences here, So I think I'm gonna take Oregon State

890
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:00,239
Speaker 2: to get into that first game against Organ, and they

891
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 2: beat them in Corvallis in early February. The Beavers are

892
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:05,439
Speaker 2: the best free throw shooting team in the Pac twelve

893
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 2: and they rank thirty first nationally in point distribution from

894
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 2: the free throw line. So I think that they're a

895
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 2: good candidate to cover against Organ, but not necessarily. You know,

896
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 2: beat Organ when you got trestinkle, you should have a

897
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 2: good chance to cover this game. But I think Organ's

898
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:20,319
Speaker 2: gonna get by there. The Washington Arizona you mentioned it.

899
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: This is a second time Arizona will see a zone.

900
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 2: That Washington game. They hit fifteen of seventeen free throws,

901
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 2: they had eleven steals. That's very very uncharacteristic of an

902
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 2: Arizona team that ranks top ten in the country in

903
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 2: offensive steel percentage. They just don't give the ball up whatsoever.

904
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 2: And to give up eleven seals of Washington, I don't

905
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 2: expect that to happen again. So it's gonna be hard

906
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 2: for me to take Washington in this one, you know.

907
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 2: And so Arizona is having a problem closing out games,

908
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 2: so I think they're very vulnerable here.

909
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:47,320
Speaker 3: USC.

910
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:48,840
Speaker 2: I don't have any love for either. They're on a

911
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 2: three game, you know, winning streak, all at home. They

912
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 2: have three conference wins on the road, and it's just

913
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:55,839
Speaker 2: not a team I want to back long term. Their

914
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,960
Speaker 2: last and free throw percentage and offensive steel percentage. They're

915
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 2: the best three point defense in the conference, but that

916
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 2: isn't the primary source of points you know that Washington

917
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 2: or Arizona goes to to get their points. So USC

918
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 2: is best part of their defense isn't exactly what Washington

919
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 2: Arizona do. So I don't like USC do advance. I

920
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 2: think Oregon is going to have a great time getting

921
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 2: to the finals out of this pot up at the top.

922
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 2: I think down low, the bottom half is really where

923
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 2: everybody needs to focus, and to me, there's one matchup.

924
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 2: I think the winner of this one matchup is the

925
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:28,960
Speaker 2: one that's going to represent that bottom half of the

926
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 2: bracket in the finals, and that's Stanford against UCLA. Now,

927
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 2: Stanford's three hundred and thirty first in experience, I have

928
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 2: to stop betting them. I bet them all the time.

929
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 2: I love these guys. They're young, but they just explode

930
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 2: to the basket. They look fantastic at points and then

931
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 2: they look lack a day's a goal points. They've won

932
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 2: three conference games on the road. They're the best effective

933
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:48,760
Speaker 2: field goal percentage shooting team in the Pac twelve. They're

934
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 2: gonna have no issues with clean shots against Cal. They're

935
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 2: going to roll right into this game against UCLA. Stanford

936
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,960
Speaker 2: has a huge advantage over number two UCLA and shooting

937
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:59,399
Speaker 2: from the perimeter. The Bruins are eleventh in the Pac

938
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:02,080
Speaker 2: twelve and perimeter defense. So I know there's been all

939
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 2: this love for UCLA, but Stanford can attack them from

940
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 2: the perimeter and get an upset victory here. And I'm

941
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 2: going to roll with Stanford actually to come out of

942
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 2: the bottom halp. I don't like Colorado. They've lost four straight,

943
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 2: including a loss to Utah. Their defense has been atrocious

944
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 2: and steals and blocks. They're not the same team that

945
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 2: they were two months ago. I don't have any love

946
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:23,799
Speaker 2: for Washington State. I don't have any love for Arizona State.

947
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 2: I like the Stanford UCLA winner to move on to

948
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 2: the finals. If we're going to talk about pricing, Oregon

949
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 2: is ond is plus one seventy five at Westgate, and

950
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:35,760
Speaker 2: they have a thirty percent chance of winning the tournament,

951
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:37,919
Speaker 2: So that number really needs to be more like plus

952
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 2: two fifty or plus two hundred, So it's not really

953
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 2: a good number for Oregon. At plus one seventy five,

954
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 2: Stanford is twelve percent win probability to win the Pac

955
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 2: twelve Championship, and they're being offered at twelve to one.

956
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 2: That's value. So that right there tells you that, you know,

957
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 2: they should have odds that are more like eight to one,

958
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:54,720
Speaker 2: nine to one. So twelve to one are better on Stanford,

959
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 2: I think is worth a buy. Ucla was given a

960
00:41:57,160 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 2: six percent chance to win this tournament by Ken. That

961
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 2: makes them having ten to one odds. Where I've seen

962
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 2: so far at Westgate in other places, there's just absolutely

963
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 2: no value that and whatsoever I'd consider the Bruins at

964
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 2: twenty to one. Not sure if that's gonna pop up,

965
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 2: but that's where their real value is.

966
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:13,760
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, I mean, you know my motto, fuck the Ducks.

967
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 1: I don't like I don't love this team at all.

968
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:17,760
Speaker 1: They have a great draw, they are the one seed,

969
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 1: and you know, Peyton Pritchard is amazing. Oregon's tough in

970
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 1: a tournament setting of Daniell Altman that he's switching his

971
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 1: defenses between man and zone morphing. They'll do the pressing.

972
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,560
Speaker 1: But as a team, that's what eighteen and zero overtime

973
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:32,440
Speaker 1: games this year. They have just won so many close games.

974
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 1: But it's a team that doesn't really defend. They're seventy

975
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 1: fifth in adjusted defensive visions. I don't think it's an

976
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:40,719
Speaker 1: elite Oregon team. I think they they'll beat the winner

977
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 1: of Oregon State Utah. But look, I've been high on

978
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:45,920
Speaker 1: this team all year. They're gonna put it together. I

979
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 1: am a stubborn man. Sometimes I still see all the

980
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: talent with Arizona. I think that they will beat Washington.

981
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:53,880
Speaker 1: They just saw that zone that will really help. But

982
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 1: I was Goulda potentially been a Washington future as a

983
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 1: potential sleeper and on the path. But I think Arizona.

984
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:06,839
Speaker 1: Look in, Arizona is a deep team and that's gonna

985
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 1: help because they're gonna have to win four games in

986
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 1: four days. The thing with that you have to keep

987
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 1: in mind with Stanford, they're not a deep team. So

988
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 1: that is the one where with Stanford not a lot

989
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,240
Speaker 1: of depth, so winning four games in four days, legs

990
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:24,080
Speaker 1: could become an issue. Colorado is a deep team. They

991
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:27,359
Speaker 1: have a good bench that they can go to. All

992
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 1: the talent is there sol Arizona and Colorado the five

993
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 1: and six seed. I think that the two most talented

994
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:35,879
Speaker 1: teams overall. Really experienced team in Colorado, really young team

995
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 1: in Arizona. Now. I know Colorado has been dreadful away

996
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,360
Speaker 1: from home, away from Boulder, and they've been on a

997
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 1: skid here of late, but they should beat Washington State.

998
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 1: They match up well with Arizona State. They beat Arizona

999
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 1: State this year twice. Do you know where they beat

1000
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 1: them at if you look at if you look at Colorado,

1001
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:56,319
Speaker 1: Colorado played Arizona State twice. They didn't play either of

1002
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:58,799
Speaker 1: those games at home, which you might be saying, hell,

1003
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 1: is that possible Arizona State played them at home in

1004
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 1: mid January and lost by seven, and these two teams

1005
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 1: actually opened up the year playing each other November eighth.

1006
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 1: I believe in China and Shanghai, they beat them on

1007
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 1: a neutral and on the road, so I think they

1008
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:15,759
Speaker 1: match up well with them. They have enough depth, and

1009
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 1: then they could get one UCLA or Stanford. So my

1010
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:23,360
Speaker 1: prediction is an Arizona Colorado championship. It might sound crazy,

1011
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 1: and maybe both teams losing in the first round. They've

1012
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 1: certainly had disappointing losses this year, but I'm sticking with

1013
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:31,080
Speaker 1: my guns. Try to get an Arizona like four to one,

1014
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 1: a Colorado five to one, you know, plus four fifty

1015
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 1: plus three fifty plus four hundred. I'm way higher on

1016
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 1: the market won both of those teams, and I'm thinking

1017
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 1: that there's going to be some positive aggression, and you're

1018
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:49,479
Speaker 1: going to see positive regression for both of those teams,

1019
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 1: and I think that the cream is going to rise

1020
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 1: to the top here in the tournament and you're going

1021
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:56,160
Speaker 1: to see Arizona and Colorado make deep runs. And I

1022
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 1: really want that Arizona Oregon rematch. I still have to

1023
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 1: eat the shoe don't all right, it's coming. But Arizona

1024
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:04,799
Speaker 1: in the Semies against Oregon, I think they get their revenge.

1025
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:08,840
Speaker 1: They lost twice in overtime to Oregon in two games

1026
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 1: they probably should have won, missed free throws, and so

1027
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 1: I really want that rematch. I think it's in Arizona

1028
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:17,720
Speaker 1: Colorado Championship, which sounds crazy. I dot anybody with you.

1029
00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 2: You're gonna be a Twitter must follow. When Oregon wins

1030
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:20,920
Speaker 2: again in overtime for a third.

1031
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 1: Time, Oh man, I don't know what I'm gonna have

1032
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 1: to eat this time. Randal, what do you got here? Yeah?

1033
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 3: I agree with Colin on Utah covering Oregon. State's the

1034
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 3: big pillow, especially away from home, so I'll grab those points.

1035
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:33,239
Speaker 3: In a second. On the bottom part of the bracket,

1036
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 3: I want to go with Stanford. I do like Stanford.

1037
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:39,359
Speaker 3: The problem is they do not rebound, and UCLA has

1038
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 3: been dominating the boards. Mick Cronin team, that's what they're

1039
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:45,840
Speaker 3: gonna do. They lost UCLA at home to Stanford by

1040
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 3: fifteen way earlier in the year, but this is a

1041
00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:51,080
Speaker 3: totally different UCLA team, So I'm gonna have a hard

1042
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:54,160
Speaker 3: time putting Stanford pass Ucla just don't see it. The

1043
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 3: value here is Colorado. I mean, even though Colorado, like

1044
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 3: you said, stuck, they have the most talent. We were

1045
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 3: talking about Colorado being the top team in the Pac

1046
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 3: twelve for a long time. They lost four in a row.

1047
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:07,360
Speaker 3: They've stumbled across the finish line, but they could get hot.

1048
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 3: Arizona State has done a nice job, but they still

1049
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:11,279
Speaker 3: turn the ball over too much for me. I know

1050
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:13,720
Speaker 3: that the metrics say they don't, but they're under seventy

1051
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 3: percent from the free throw line. And Pac twelve play

1052
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 3: and they get a little helter skelter. They lost back

1053
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 3: to back games on the road UCLA USC then they

1054
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:23,920
Speaker 3: lose it home to Washington, so I know they're flammable,

1055
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 3: but they have droughts there where they can really go

1056
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 3: without a basket for a long period of time. So

1057
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 3: I'm with you. I think the values in Colorado there

1058
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,359
Speaker 3: you can get a nice odds they get by Arizona State,

1059
00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:36,439
Speaker 3: they're going to play potentially UCLA or if you like Stanford. Yeah,

1060
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 3: they can absolutely make a run. And if they get

1061
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 3: hot and they match up with Oregon, we'll roll the

1062
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:41,960
Speaker 3: dice and go with them there. I think the Ducks

1063
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:44,280
Speaker 3: get through. I'm gonna put Oregon in the funds assuming

1064
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 3: Duarte's okay. If he's not, then that's certainly an issue.

1065
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think the team that comes out of

1066
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:51,439
Speaker 3: the bottom, if it's UCLA who keeps rolling with Mick,

1067
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 3: they pound the boards or Colorado can absolutely beat Oregon

1068
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:55,760
Speaker 3: there definitely.

1069
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, then you mentioned the rebound and that's why Colorado

1070
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 1: matches up well with Arizona State. Colorado good on the glass,

1071
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 1: Arizona State is not, so you get a ton of

1072
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:05,040
Speaker 1: second chance points in less droughts.

1073
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 2: I think it's I think it's important to mention price too,

1074
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 2: because right now Westgate has them at plus four to

1075
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:13,120
Speaker 2: fifty and with applied odds of a fifty percent chance

1076
00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 2: that Colorado can win the Pac twelve tournament, you need

1077
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:18,959
Speaker 2: to find a Colorado plus five fifty or better, maybe

1078
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 2: a six to one or better. That's your purchase point

1079
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 2: on their futures. Westgate has them at plus four fifty,

1080
00:47:24,080 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 2: but they're they're you know, their probability of winning this

1081
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 2: tournament is about fifteen percent, So look for a six

1082
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 2: to one or better on Colorado if you're going to

1083
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 2: buy them.

1084
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:32,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm a little less with my numbers, so because

1085
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:35,319
Speaker 1: I'm a little higher both on Arizona and Colorado than

1086
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 1: the market. But yeah, search for the best number, you know,

1087
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 1: at a four to one with Colorado or a three

1088
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 1: to one with Arizona, probably not worth it even with

1089
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 1: my numbers, and I'm higher on both teams. All right,

1090
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 1: So let's just go official predictions. I say Arizona beats Colorado.

1091
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Oregon over Stanford. I can't quit betting Stanford.

1092
00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 2: I don't know what it is.

1093
00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 1: Fuck your ducks.

1094
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:57,880
Speaker 3: I'm rolling with Mick Cronin.

1095
00:47:58,000 --> 00:47:58,399
Speaker 1: They're hot.

1096
00:47:58,440 --> 00:47:59,840
Speaker 3: I think Ucla beat Oorgan.

1097
00:48:00,360 --> 00:48:02,799
Speaker 1: Fuck your ducks. All right, all right, so let's move

1098
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:06,800
Speaker 1: on to the Big East.

1099
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:09,040
Speaker 2: From Trenton.

1100
00:48:16,920 --> 00:48:19,919
Speaker 1: And this is a conference tournament that I have been

1101
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:24,640
Speaker 1: waiting for all year because of the amount of star power.

1102
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:29,439
Speaker 1: Now you add in, you know, this Creighton offense, which

1103
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 1: is playing so well, you know, but you have guys

1104
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: like Marcus Howard, you have guys like Miles pal Sadiq Bay.

1105
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 1: The way that Providence is playing, I mean, it's just

1106
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 1: I think gonna be one of the most exciting conference tournaments.

1107
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:52,360
Speaker 1: First round starts on Wednesday. Top six seeds get a

1108
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 1: bye to the quarters on Thursday, first round games A

1109
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:59,239
Speaker 1: Georgetown against Saint John's Xavier against DePaul Xavier. Coming off

1110
00:48:59,239 --> 00:49:02,440
Speaker 1: that heartbreaking loss to Butler, I even mention Kamar Baldwin,

1111
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 1: who was amazing and forced overtime and then won the

1112
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:08,400
Speaker 1: game with a bomb three the top six. He is

1113
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 1: Creighton's the number one overall. See I don't think many

1114
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:13,879
Speaker 1: would have predicted that the two seed is Villanova down

1115
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:17,239
Speaker 1: there with Seaton Hall, so that's a loaded bottom half.

1116
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 1: And then you have Providence Butler, which should be a

1117
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 1: hell of a game. I think Providence actually matches up

1118
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 1: really well with Butler. It's a team, it's a Providence

1119
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 1: scene that's playing extremely good basketball. They've made some runs

1120
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 1: here at the Big East Tournament, which for those who

1121
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:35,359
Speaker 1: have been living under the rocks at Madison Square Garden

1122
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:39,160
Speaker 1: in New York City. But Providence has won six in

1123
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:42,399
Speaker 1: a row. They beat they won at Butler. They lost

1124
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:44,920
Speaker 1: that Butler earlier this year, but they couldn't make a layout.

1125
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 1: Their offense is playing a lot more confident now. They

1126
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 1: beat Butl three times last year, so that's something to

1127
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:52,040
Speaker 1: keep in mind. So if Providence does get through Butler,

1128
00:49:52,040 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 1: which I think they do they will face Creighton, assuming

1129
00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:57,280
Speaker 1: Creighton gets by either Georgetown or Saint john Sat John's

1130
00:49:57,280 --> 00:49:59,439
Speaker 1: is playing better here of late. You know, the Saint

1131
00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 1: John's just beat Creighton up in New York. I know

1132
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 1: it wasn't at the Garden by what by like twenty

1133
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 1: so maybe that's an interesting game. And then on the

1134
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 1: bottom half, you know, if Seaton Hall against Marquette is Marquette,

1135
00:50:11,000 --> 00:50:12,839
Speaker 1: you would think going to continue their dives. They're dying

1136
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 1: once again. So let's start there. What looks like is

1137
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 1: going to be a Villa Nova Seaton Hall semi final game.

1138
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:21,840
Speaker 1: Maybe Xavier can throw a wrench in and beat Nova.

1139
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:25,960
Speaker 1: Maybe Marquette somehow find something in the tank. Let's start

1140
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:27,320
Speaker 1: in the bottom of that section and go up to

1141
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 1: the top. Randall, give me your thoughts all around.

1142
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:33,879
Speaker 3: There is one and only one rationale for liking Marquette,

1143
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 3: and that is that you are a believer in the

1144
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:40,960
Speaker 3: Kemba Walker theory. Remember back to twenty eleven, Yukon limps

1145
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 3: in here losing four of their last five and then

1146
00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 3: they absolutely go bananas behind Kemba and actually win the

1147
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:51,160
Speaker 3: national title. Compare that to Marquette this year. They have

1148
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:54,160
Speaker 3: lost six of their last seven games coming in. So

1149
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:57,879
Speaker 3: if you believe in the kemba Walker, Carlary, then you're

1150
00:50:57,920 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 3: going to back Marcus Howard there listen Covid.

1151
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:02,400
Speaker 1: But there's others other chembas in this conference. That was

1152
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 1: the thing.

1153
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 3: That's the problem. That's the problem.

1154
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:06,920
Speaker 1: And you know what is really troubling. We've called out

1155
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 1: this Marquette fading mark. We saw a Providence did of

1156
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:13,200
Speaker 1: the Paul without Paul Reid, right, I mean they were

1157
00:51:13,239 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 1: up by like fifty maybe at one point Marquette lost

1158
00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:19,799
Speaker 1: to to Paul without Paul Reid. I mean that's it's

1159
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 1: even more troubling seeing what the Paul did without Paul

1160
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:23,000
Speaker 1: read against Providence bok ahead.

1161
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:25,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I am not on the Marquete bandwagon, But if

1162
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:27,359
Speaker 3: you believe in that, I guess that's fine. I think

1163
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:30,720
Speaker 3: Seaton Hall gets by them. I don't see Villanova losing

1164
00:51:30,719 --> 00:51:33,880
Speaker 3: to the Paul or Xavier. Xavier without Scruggs has really struggled.

1165
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:36,319
Speaker 3: Naji Marshall's been unbelievable, by the way. That was an

1166
00:51:36,320 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 3: incredible game going back and forth with Baldwin. Baldwin hit

1167
00:51:38,719 --> 00:51:40,840
Speaker 3: the three to win the game. But he's been tremendous,

1168
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:42,960
Speaker 3: but they're not a full strength So I see Villanova

1169
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:45,879
Speaker 3: Seaton Hall easily going through on the bottom. You nail

1170
00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:48,400
Speaker 3: it stuck. The ones that I like, it's Providence. You're

1171
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:51,799
Speaker 3: getting seven to one odds on a Providence team that

1172
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 3: has won six games in a row. We got ed

1173
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:57,520
Speaker 3: Cooley magic with the pants splitting again. Maybe who knows

1174
00:51:57,840 --> 00:52:00,880
Speaker 3: they're hot? They're playing well, They've one on the road.

1175
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 3: They have two wins on the road here. They beat

1176
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,200
Speaker 3: Georgetown on the road and they beat Villanova on the road.

1177
00:52:05,200 --> 00:52:07,800
Speaker 3: They're playing really well. Alpha Diallo can get a bucket

1178
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:10,279
Speaker 3: whenever he wants. That's a team I'm focusing on. And listen,

1179
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 3: you know, I love Creighton. I don't think Creighton stumbles

1180
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 3: at the guard against Saint John's. I agree it's a

1181
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:16,400
Speaker 3: bad loss, but that was also a Carna sec arena,

1182
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:18,319
Speaker 3: So I think Creighton takes care of business. So for

1183
00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 3: all this, even though Butler is scary, I see it

1184
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:23,799
Speaker 3: as Creighton, Providence, Villanova, Seaton Hall.

1185
00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:27,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they keep Creighton and Providence split Creighton during

1186
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:31,840
Speaker 1: the regular season. Creighton got blown out at Providence and

1187
00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 1: they want a close one at home. Really physical Providence

1188
00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 1: team that I think can get up and guard them,

1189
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 1: you know, just dominate inside. But a fascinating matchup. Any

1190
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:47,480
Speaker 1: I think they match up with Butler, Seaton Halls and

1191
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:50,719
Speaker 1: Villanova are plus three fifty. Creighton's the favorite of plus

1192
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:54,080
Speaker 1: three hundred, Marquet plus seven hundred, Butlers plus seven hundred

1193
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:57,120
Speaker 1: Xavior twenty one, and then Providence, yeah, plus seven hundred

1194
00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 1: because of how they match up. I think with Butler

1195
00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 1: with Creighton, and then they avoid Villanova's Seaton Hall potentially

1196
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:07,040
Speaker 1: until the final. I agree. I think that's the look there.

1197
00:53:08,400 --> 00:53:10,719
Speaker 1: Seaton Hall Villanova, if that's the semi should be a

1198
00:53:10,760 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 1: hell of a game. And I have Seaton Hall better rated,

1199
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:19,720
Speaker 1: better than Millanova. I think they would win that game

1200
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:23,759
Speaker 1: in the garden. And so I'm gonna call here a

1201
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:28,520
Speaker 1: Seaton Hall Providence final. Seaton Hall wins it. I took

1202
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:30,960
Speaker 1: some Seaton Hall, a little bit of some Seaton Hall,

1203
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:34,840
Speaker 1: and some Providence futures. For what it's worth, Colin, you

1204
00:53:35,120 --> 00:53:36,280
Speaker 1: see anything around the Big East.

1205
00:53:36,520 --> 00:53:38,520
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the biggest story in the Big East,

1206
00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:40,040
Speaker 2: or at least in my eyes, what we started to

1207
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:42,800
Speaker 2: talk about when we started podcasting. When college football season

1208
00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:46,200
Speaker 2: ended and we hopped into college basketball. What is this

1209
00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:49,359
Speaker 2: Creighton three point shooting? Holy cow? And it just has

1210
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:51,400
Speaker 2: not led up. I mean, it keeps going. They just

1211
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:54,759
Speaker 2: shot fifty four against Seaton Hall the other night, so

1212
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:57,440
Speaker 2: they're not in a funk. And I don't expect this

1213
00:53:57,520 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 2: to stop. But who is the teams? Who are the

1214
00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:02,440
Speaker 2: two that are the best in the Big East at

1215
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 2: stopping the three point shot? Xavier and Providence? And it

1216
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:08,720
Speaker 2: shows because Providence just came up short by four points

1217
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:10,759
Speaker 2: at Creighton and then they blew them out when they

1218
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:14,399
Speaker 2: hosted them. So Providence absolutely over Creighton. I love them

1219
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:17,480
Speaker 2: to represent that top half in the finals of this game.

1220
00:54:17,760 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 2: And then on the bottom, I'm going Villanova now. I mean,

1221
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 2: we can argue Villanova Seaton Hall all day. You guys know,

1222
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:25,680
Speaker 2: I have no love for Marquette, and we're definitely never

1223
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 2: gonna mention De Paul ever again after this podcast. But

1224
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 2: Villanova has won in conference play seven of their last

1225
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 2: eight games on the road. They love to be away

1226
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 2: from home. They're comfortable in other people's environments. There's no

1227
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 2: stage that scares them whatsoever. I mean, the fact that

1228
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:43,640
Speaker 2: there's seven of eight on the road, to me, it's

1229
00:54:43,680 --> 00:54:45,439
Speaker 2: just straight up, not even against the spread, just straight

1230
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 2: up on the road is very impressive to me. So

1231
00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:50,240
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Nova and Providence, and I'll take Nova

1232
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:51,720
Speaker 2: to beat Providence in the final.

1233
00:54:52,120 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 3: Your prediction, Randall, I think there's one mismatch stuck with

1234
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:58,360
Speaker 3: Seaton Hall of Villanova, and that's the coach Kevin Willard.

1235
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 3: I also don't like that. I think Miles Powell has

1236
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:03,080
Speaker 3: not been as explosive lately. They're talking about tendonitis in

1237
00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:03,520
Speaker 3: his knee.

1238
00:55:03,560 --> 00:55:05,640
Speaker 1: Yeah him at McKnight. That isn't worry for the tournament.

1239
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 1: I kind of want personally, but the Seaton All future.

1240
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:10,440
Speaker 1: I kind of want them to lose to Marquette, but

1241
00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 1: I know they beat them easily, but just rest up

1242
00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:13,479
Speaker 1: and get their knees better.

1243
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 3: I'm gonna roll with Providence. I think Providence is hot.

1244
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:17,960
Speaker 3: I think that's a great game against Creyton because I

1245
00:55:18,000 --> 00:55:19,640
Speaker 3: think Crayton shows up. I don't think they're gonna slow

1246
00:55:19,680 --> 00:55:21,680
Speaker 3: down from three. I think Providence is just going to

1247
00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:23,719
Speaker 3: get by them and they're gonna play Villanova, and I'll

1248
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:25,640
Speaker 3: take Providence to win the Big Eiast Tournament.

1249
00:55:26,120 --> 00:55:28,880
Speaker 1: You have a lot of love for PC. I think

1250
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 1: it's the lock in the tournaments. Marquette now on the bubble.

1251
00:55:31,239 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 1: I mean, they'll put him in.

1252
00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:34,359
Speaker 3: That'll be a perfect playing game, right if they really

1253
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:35,720
Speaker 3: fall apart here with Marcus.

1254
00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:37,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true.

1255
00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:41,239
Speaker 2: Marquette Arkansas n T Final over over.

1256
00:55:42,800 --> 00:55:45,160
Speaker 1: It might be best if Marquette loses this and just

1257
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 1: sneaks in anyway, but with them wearing down here, they

1258
00:55:49,160 --> 00:55:51,040
Speaker 1: exerted all that energy, put up sixty points of the

1259
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:53,160
Speaker 1: second half and still lose the Saint John's all right,

1260
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:57,760
Speaker 1: let's move on to the Big Ten Tournament, which is wild.

1261
00:55:58,239 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 1: You know, this is a brutal league.

1262
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:03,640
Speaker 3: My players aren't always exactly disciplined like we want them.

1263
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:07,319
Speaker 1: Nobody in this room is. I mean, this has been

1264
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 1: the deepest and the overall best conference in the country

1265
00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:13,360
Speaker 1: in my eyes. This is a Big Ten storm that

1266
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:16,759
Speaker 1: we've played in Indianapolis starting on Wednesday. I mean, just

1267
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 1: to show you how deep this conference is. Indiana and

1268
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:24,600
Speaker 1: Minnesota to bubble teams. I think Minnesota has probably played

1269
00:56:24,600 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 1: their way out, but I mean has lost a million

1270
00:56:26,600 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 1: games at one point, but top forty teams, they're the

1271
00:56:30,000 --> 00:56:32,280
Speaker 1: eleven and twelve seed. They need to win five games

1272
00:56:32,280 --> 00:56:35,719
Speaker 1: in five days. Which is just crazy to think that,

1273
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 1: you know, an eleven and twelve seed in the conference

1274
00:56:37,640 --> 00:56:40,000
Speaker 1: is you know, potentially we were talking about tournament teams

1275
00:56:40,000 --> 00:56:41,839
Speaker 1: and still could make the tournament. Yeah, I mean I've

1276
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:45,400
Speaker 1: seen some Indiana fifty fifty to one. There's some thirty

1277
00:56:45,440 --> 00:56:48,120
Speaker 1: five to ones, forty, I mean fifty five to one.

1278
00:56:48,239 --> 00:56:50,839
Speaker 1: It's a little interesting. It's more interesting than Minnesota because

1279
00:56:50,840 --> 00:56:53,600
Speaker 1: Minnesota don't have a bench. Indiana has more of a bench.

1280
00:56:53,640 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 1: Ian you got win five games in five days. I

1281
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:58,759
Speaker 1: don't see either of them doing it, especially with Indiana.

1282
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:00,400
Speaker 1: I mean, if I had to pick, it would be

1283
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:03,120
Speaker 1: Minnesota because they would have to beat Iowa and Illinois

1284
00:57:03,160 --> 00:57:05,800
Speaker 1: and Wisconsin to get to the final, whereas Indiana' have

1285
00:57:05,880 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 1: to be They're gonna beat Nebraska, They're gonna be Penn State,

1286
00:57:08,239 --> 00:57:11,120
Speaker 1: then Maryland, then Michigan State just to get to the final.

1287
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:13,560
Speaker 1: If the Seeds hold, I mean, that's brutal the bottom

1288
00:57:13,560 --> 00:57:16,960
Speaker 1: half the way Michigan State is playing. This is the

1289
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:18,880
Speaker 1: team everyone with the market was waiting for all year

1290
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:21,400
Speaker 1: while they were I mean, you have Aaron Henry Rocket Watts.

1291
00:57:21,440 --> 00:57:23,120
Speaker 1: I mean, this team is rolling. It is clearly a

1292
00:57:23,120 --> 00:57:25,560
Speaker 1: top five team in the country, but Michigan State doesn't

1293
00:57:25,560 --> 00:57:27,040
Speaker 1: have an easy path. They got to play the winner

1294
00:57:27,040 --> 00:57:28,920
Speaker 1: of Ohio State Perdue, and then I mean, no one

1295
00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:31,040
Speaker 1: really has an easy path in the Big ten. But

1296
00:57:31,080 --> 00:57:32,760
Speaker 1: if I were going to pick between the long shots

1297
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:34,880
Speaker 1: of Indiana Minnesota, good, Minnesota don't have a bench, which

1298
00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:37,760
Speaker 1: makes it tough. So I'm throwing out both of those

1299
00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:41,160
Speaker 1: long shots. Michigan State is the favorite here at plus

1300
00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:44,120
Speaker 1: three twenty five on points bet Maryland plus four hundred.

1301
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:46,520
Speaker 1: Those two teams would if the Seeds wild play in

1302
00:57:46,520 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 1: the semies, but Maryland would have to get by maybe

1303
00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:50,960
Speaker 1: Penn State. Michigan State would have to get by maybe

1304
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:54,640
Speaker 1: Ohio State who they did today, or Purdue. It was

1305
00:57:54,680 --> 00:57:56,520
Speaker 1: a lot of talent, just can't seem to close out

1306
00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:59,160
Speaker 1: these games. The top half of Wisconsin's the number one

1307
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:01,480
Speaker 1: overall seed, can get them at ten to one, along

1308
00:58:01,520 --> 00:58:03,720
Speaker 1: with Iowa, along with Illinois, they're right around that same

1309
00:58:03,760 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 1: price range. Wisconsin is gonna play the winner of Rutgers Michigan. Illinois,

1310
00:58:08,120 --> 00:58:10,960
Speaker 1: along with the other top three seeds in Wisconsin, Michigan

1311
00:58:11,000 --> 00:58:12,920
Speaker 1: State and Maryland have a double buy into the quarters

1312
00:58:12,920 --> 00:58:16,480
Speaker 1: on Friday. Illinois will play either Iowa or the Winter

1313
00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 1: of Minnesota Northwestern which will be Minnesota. Very interesting racket,

1314
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:22,959
Speaker 1: lots of possibilities all over the place. If you believe

1315
00:58:23,000 --> 00:58:25,440
Speaker 1: in the way the Michigan State's are playing lately, you

1316
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:28,080
Speaker 1: have them winning this. But with how deep the conference is,

1317
00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:30,360
Speaker 1: I don't know if there's necessary value taking them at

1318
00:58:30,360 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 1: three to one. But if you think that they're just

1319
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:35,240
Speaker 1: going to keep rising and they're playing so well, maybe

1320
00:58:35,240 --> 00:58:36,720
Speaker 1: you take them. I do think that they match up

1321
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:38,960
Speaker 1: well with Maryland Colin. What do you see here overall

1322
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:39,520
Speaker 1: in the Big Ten?

1323
00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:41,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Iowa doesn't have to play Purdue. That's

1324
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:45,040
Speaker 2: good for them. So you can compare advanced statistics up

1325
00:58:45,040 --> 00:58:47,160
Speaker 2: against each other all day and you're going to find

1326
00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:49,640
Speaker 2: out that there's about eleven teams in here that are

1327
00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 2: very evenly matched. Eight of these teams play extremely good defense.

1328
00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:55,880
Speaker 2: And so when you go through that, and then I

1329
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:58,760
Speaker 2: started looking on the road, who's been exceptional on the road,

1330
00:58:58,840 --> 00:59:01,040
Speaker 2: the best team on the road against the spread, there's

1331
00:59:01,080 --> 00:59:03,560
Speaker 2: been Rutgers six three and one. Now I'm not out

1332
00:59:03,560 --> 00:59:05,880
Speaker 2: here trying to lay a future on Rutgers winning this tournament.

1333
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:08,560
Speaker 2: Illinois seven and five against the spread, everybody else pretty

1334
00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:11,160
Speaker 2: mediocre or pretty bad on the road. So I can't

1335
00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:13,440
Speaker 2: get a pulse on who's going to be good at

1336
00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:14,880
Speaker 2: the old Conseco Fieldhouse here.

1337
00:59:15,680 --> 00:59:17,240
Speaker 1: But I know that Rutgers has been good on the road.

1338
00:59:17,280 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 1: But they just won their second game away from home,

1339
00:59:21,520 --> 00:59:23,160
Speaker 1: and that was against Purdue in one of the biggest

1340
00:59:23,160 --> 00:59:25,120
Speaker 1: shooting variant games of the year. Their only other win

1341
00:59:25,160 --> 00:59:27,439
Speaker 1: away from home was at Nebraska. I mean, they lost

1342
00:59:27,480 --> 00:59:30,200
Speaker 1: at pit they lost on the neutral Saint Bonnie's. But

1343
00:59:30,320 --> 00:59:31,960
Speaker 1: your point's well taken, and they do have a bench

1344
00:59:32,520 --> 00:59:34,080
Speaker 1: and gioe. Baker's playing really well now.

1345
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:36,120
Speaker 2: But again, keep going and records doesn't seem like can

1346
00:59:36,160 --> 00:59:38,640
Speaker 2: play exceptional defense. Where's the offense coming from? Iowa can

1347
00:59:38,680 --> 00:59:41,400
Speaker 2: play exceptional offense? Where's the defense? I mean it, But

1348
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:43,520
Speaker 2: I think where I wanted to go with my pick

1349
00:59:43,720 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 2: for this tournament is I wanted to look at what

1350
00:59:46,880 --> 00:59:49,640
Speaker 2: your win probability is for the tournament versus what the

1351
00:59:49,640 --> 00:59:51,320
Speaker 2: current odds out there are on the market is. And

1352
00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:53,160
Speaker 2: if there's a team that shows a lot of value,

1353
00:59:53,360 --> 00:59:54,680
Speaker 2: that's the team I'm going to buy and I'm going

1354
00:59:54,760 --> 00:59:56,800
Speaker 2: to write them. So let's talk about that. Michigan was

1355
00:59:56,920 --> 00:59:59,720
Speaker 2: estimated at twenty two percent win probability. You're going to

1356
00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:01,880
Speaker 2: need US four fifty or more to make that have

1357
01:00:01,920 --> 01:00:05,560
Speaker 2: any value. Maryland sixteen percent win probability. You need plus

1358
01:00:05,720 --> 01:00:08,800
Speaker 2: five twenty ish. That's not out there. Illinois, Ohio State

1359
01:00:08,840 --> 01:00:11,120
Speaker 2: they're eight point nine percent. You need an eleven to one.

1360
01:00:11,200 --> 01:00:14,560
Speaker 2: That's not out there either. There's one team that has

1361
01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:18,320
Speaker 2: a probability and a perfect buy number. That's Wisconsin. Wisconsin

1362
01:00:18,320 --> 01:00:21,440
Speaker 2: has an eleven point six percent probability to win. You

1363
01:00:21,560 --> 01:00:24,880
Speaker 2: need about a plus seven eighty ish. They're ten to

1364
01:00:24,920 --> 01:00:26,760
Speaker 2: one at Westgate, and I'm sure you can get a

1365
01:00:26,760 --> 01:00:30,720
Speaker 2: better number somewhere else. Wisconsin should be around plus seven

1366
01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:34,040
Speaker 2: to fifty. They're not any ten to ones or better.

1367
01:00:34,120 --> 01:00:36,520
Speaker 2: On Wisconsin has extreme value in this tournament.

1368
01:00:36,920 --> 01:00:39,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, people refuse to just buy this plus Wisconsin team.

1369
01:00:39,480 --> 01:00:42,160
Speaker 1: But the addition of Micah Potter, and what people don't

1370
01:00:42,200 --> 01:00:46,640
Speaker 1: realize is the loss of Kobe King. Addition by subtraction,

1371
01:00:47,080 --> 01:00:49,240
Speaker 1: this theft team defends a lot better without him, They

1372
01:00:49,240 --> 01:00:52,120
Speaker 1: move the ball a lot better without him, and they

1373
01:00:52,320 --> 01:00:55,160
Speaker 1: know Micah Potter, who can shoot the ball, you can rebound.

1374
01:00:55,480 --> 01:00:57,840
Speaker 1: Team's really good, and they still don't get enough respect

1375
01:00:57,840 --> 01:00:59,360
Speaker 1: to the marketing. As you can see, they're ten to

1376
01:00:59,360 --> 01:01:01,960
Speaker 1: one as the top seed, getting a buye in at

1377
01:01:01,960 --> 01:01:03,960
Speaker 1: the quarters, and they're on the other side of the

1378
01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:06,440
Speaker 1: bracket at Michigan State and Maryland. Other things. I'll throw

1379
01:01:06,440 --> 01:01:08,840
Speaker 1: out Michigan you have livers or has been dealing with injuries.

1380
01:01:08,840 --> 01:01:11,280
Speaker 1: I mean Michigan has went four games in four days.

1381
01:01:13,000 --> 01:01:14,720
Speaker 1: You have Maryland who doesn't have a bench. They don't

1382
01:01:14,760 --> 01:01:16,000
Speaker 1: have in three games in three days, but they have

1383
01:01:16,080 --> 01:01:20,040
Speaker 1: zero depth. Maybe it shows up in their legs. So

1384
01:01:20,680 --> 01:01:22,919
Speaker 1: I think Michigan State comes out at the bottom. They've

1385
01:01:22,920 --> 01:01:25,640
Speaker 1: been playing so well. High State's been playing better of late.

1386
01:01:26,080 --> 01:01:29,840
Speaker 1: But after seeing Michigan State today against Ohio State, maybe Purdue,

1387
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:32,320
Speaker 1: you know, a desperate produ team can beat Ohio State.

1388
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:36,080
Speaker 1: Not sure that they could beat Michigan State. So I'm

1389
01:01:36,080 --> 01:01:38,200
Speaker 1: gonna at Michigan State coming out of the bottom. I

1390
01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:40,360
Speaker 1: think if you want to go with an upset, you

1391
01:01:40,480 --> 01:01:43,960
Speaker 1: kind of look towards the top. Maybe you make a

1392
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:48,000
Speaker 1: case for in Iowa or maybe a Minnesota if you

1393
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:51,520
Speaker 1: want complete chaos. But what do you see Randall in

1394
01:01:51,520 --> 01:01:52,000
Speaker 1: the Big ten?

1395
01:01:52,360 --> 01:01:54,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, the bottoms of Michigan State. If Ohio State was

1396
01:01:54,840 --> 01:01:58,120
Speaker 3: in any of the other three of the top four seeds.

1397
01:01:58,160 --> 01:01:59,920
Speaker 3: I could make an argument they were Michigan State. It's

1398
01:02:00,160 --> 01:02:02,560
Speaker 3: too hot and I'm not trusting Turjon in a big spot,

1399
01:02:02,600 --> 01:02:06,040
Speaker 3: so I put them through. Wisconsin. Is the play, guys.

1400
01:02:06,120 --> 01:02:09,760
Speaker 3: Wisconsin has won this year in the Big ten, at

1401
01:02:10,000 --> 01:02:15,760
Speaker 3: Ohio State, at Penn State, at Nebraska, Fine, at Michigan,

1402
01:02:16,040 --> 01:02:18,200
Speaker 3: and at Indiana, which is really tough this year. So

1403
01:02:18,240 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 3: they've shown the medal on the road and you're getting

1404
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:22,960
Speaker 3: ten to one on the number one seed. Makes no sense.

1405
01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:26,040
Speaker 3: And I also like Iowa. Iowa showed me more tonight

1406
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:30,160
Speaker 3: beating Illinois than ILLINOI did winning at home. Iowa came back,

1407
01:02:30,160 --> 01:02:32,280
Speaker 3: They're tough. Garza still could be the player of the

1408
01:02:32,320 --> 01:02:35,160
Speaker 3: year him or Obi topping. He battles down low Cobra

1409
01:02:35,160 --> 01:02:37,040
Speaker 3: and play very well tonight, but that may not happen.

1410
01:02:37,240 --> 01:02:40,120
Speaker 3: Garza is stepping out hitting threes. So the big value here,

1411
01:02:40,160 --> 01:02:43,040
Speaker 3: as Colin says, with the numbers, I'm looking at Iowa,

1412
01:02:43,280 --> 01:02:46,280
Speaker 3: which is around ten to one, and Wisconsin. Michigan State's

1413
01:02:46,320 --> 01:02:47,960
Speaker 3: going to go through. Michigan State's going to be in

1414
01:02:48,000 --> 01:02:49,640
Speaker 3: the finals there. But the number just isn't good enough

1415
01:02:49,680 --> 01:02:52,240
Speaker 3: for me, so I'm gonna say Michigan State versus Wisconsin

1416
01:02:52,280 --> 01:02:54,160
Speaker 3: there in the finals, one of those at ten to one,

1417
01:02:54,200 --> 01:02:56,280
Speaker 3: the winner of that game, that's the value for me.

1418
01:02:57,160 --> 01:02:59,080
Speaker 1: I think, by the way, everyone wants to see Iowa

1419
01:02:59,120 --> 01:03:02,160
Speaker 1: Illinois Part three. That'll be fun on Friday, as long

1420
01:03:02,160 --> 01:03:05,680
Speaker 1: as Iowa gets by Minnesota. All right, con any final

1421
01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:06,720
Speaker 1: thoughts in the Big Ten.

1422
01:03:06,880 --> 01:03:09,040
Speaker 2: I think Randall's exactly right with Michigan State. I think

1423
01:03:09,080 --> 01:03:10,919
Speaker 2: I think it's their time, especially in the bottom half

1424
01:03:10,920 --> 01:03:14,360
Speaker 2: of the bracket. And and Minnesota Iowa. I think that's

1425
01:03:14,400 --> 01:03:16,120
Speaker 2: a game where I'll definitely be taking it over because

1426
01:03:16,120 --> 01:03:19,160
Speaker 2: neither team could be playing a lot of defense in

1427
01:03:19,200 --> 01:03:21,600
Speaker 2: that game, and it should be interesting to see what

1428
01:03:21,760 --> 01:03:23,360
Speaker 2: either one of those teams has left when they do

1429
01:03:23,440 --> 01:03:26,480
Speaker 2: play Illinois. And and really I just want Iowa Illinois

1430
01:03:26,480 --> 01:03:29,360
Speaker 2: three after the chippiness we just saw in Part two

1431
01:03:29,400 --> 01:03:32,600
Speaker 2: between these two teams, there's no love lost between them.

1432
01:03:32,600 --> 01:03:35,240
Speaker 2: I would love to see iowallinoi again. But yeah, Minnesota Iowa,

1433
01:03:35,280 --> 01:03:37,480
Speaker 2: I love an over in that game. And then you know,

1434
01:03:37,560 --> 01:03:39,440
Speaker 2: probably going to turn around and do the same thing

1435
01:03:39,480 --> 01:03:41,920
Speaker 2: and take Iowa against Illinois in the tournament. But overall

1436
01:03:41,960 --> 01:03:43,960
Speaker 2: agree with Randall and wisconstant tin to one.

1437
01:03:44,080 --> 01:03:44,680
Speaker 1: That's the play.

1438
01:03:44,920 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 3: Did you guys see that Underwood signed a triggered McCaffrey

1439
01:03:48,880 --> 01:03:52,560
Speaker 3: poster on his way out the door, right across his forehead. Wow,

1440
01:03:53,080 --> 01:03:55,400
Speaker 3: just to put some smoke on the fire there.

1441
01:03:56,120 --> 01:03:56,800
Speaker 1: That's amazing.

1442
01:03:57,440 --> 01:04:00,720
Speaker 3: That's that's unfortunate, but it's the reality of the situation.

1443
01:04:00,920 --> 01:04:04,080
Speaker 1: All right, let's go for official predictions. This is so

1444
01:04:04,120 --> 01:04:06,160
Speaker 1: hard for me a call, I don't. I mean, the

1445
01:04:06,200 --> 01:04:08,960
Speaker 1: conference is just so deep. I have to dig into

1446
01:04:09,040 --> 01:04:10,920
Speaker 1: this more. But let's get crazy and just say initially,

1447
01:04:10,960 --> 01:04:15,919
Speaker 1: Michigan State ever, Minnesota handle Michigan State over Iowa.

1448
01:04:16,040 --> 01:04:18,080
Speaker 2: I'm going to take the team that's won eight games

1449
01:04:18,120 --> 01:04:19,800
Speaker 2: in a row and has beaten Michigan State before. I'm

1450
01:04:19,800 --> 01:04:22,080
Speaker 2: gonna take Wisconsin over Michigan State. I might not hedge

1451
01:04:22,120 --> 01:04:22,720
Speaker 2: my ten to one.

1452
01:04:22,960 --> 01:04:25,400
Speaker 1: There you have it. That is all six power conference.

1453
01:04:25,400 --> 01:04:27,600
Speaker 1: As I said before, we're gonna have a preview, well

1454
01:04:27,640 --> 01:04:30,040
Speaker 1: previews up for each of them on actionnetwork dot Com,

1455
01:04:30,040 --> 01:04:33,800
Speaker 1: in the Action app well, have continuous coverage all throughout March.

1456
01:04:34,200 --> 01:04:37,360
Speaker 1: I just skipped through daily life right now. It's the

1457
01:04:37,360 --> 01:04:40,560
Speaker 1: most wonderful time of the year. Let's make a lot

1458
01:04:40,560 --> 01:04:43,520
Speaker 1: of money together, and then we'll be back next week

1459
01:04:43,840 --> 01:04:47,120
Speaker 1: podcast talking about Day one, Day two, after selection Sunday.

1460
01:04:47,160 --> 01:04:48,760
Speaker 1: We'll have a lot of content there, just tons of

1461
01:04:48,760 --> 01:04:50,960
Speaker 1: stuff from us. You're gonna get tired of us throughout

1462
01:04:51,000 --> 01:04:53,240
Speaker 1: the end of March. Thanks to Colin joining us from

1463
01:04:53,240 --> 01:04:57,200
Speaker 1: the ski lodge, and thanks to Randall for joining us.

1464
01:04:57,240 --> 01:05:00,720
Speaker 1: As always, you know the drill. Subscribe on subscribe, leave

1465
01:05:00,760 --> 01:05:03,280
Speaker 1: a review. It helps a ton, tell a friend, tell

1466
01:05:03,320 --> 01:05:06,000
Speaker 1: an enemy, and we'll catch you all later. Cheers, Pete

1467
01:05:06,160 --> 01:05:07,840
Speaker 1: out conference, Torn, Vince.

1468
01:05:07,720 --> 01:05:08,000
Speaker 3: Bring it.

1469
01:05:19,480 --> 01:05:20,560
Speaker 1: We're finished talking