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Speaker 1: This is the Label Podcast with your host JJ Zacheratha

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Speaker 1: j J zacher reefon What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen

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Speaker 1: in this episode eleven oh five of the Late Round

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Football podcast.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning.

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Speaker 1: In. A few weeks ago, I introduced a new metric

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Speaker 1: to you guys called market score. It's something that Brandon

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Speaker 1: Goaduela and I we've been working on for a couple

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Speaker 1: of months and it felt like it was in the

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Speaker 1: right place to share with you. As I mentioned on

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Speaker 1: that episode, it was still a work in progress. We

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Speaker 1: still had some things that we wanted to add and

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Speaker 1: change that we didn't know how major those changes would be.

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Speaker 1: Turns out, we needed some relatively big changes. After that

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Speaker 1: episode was published, I received a lot of messages of

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Speaker 1: confusion from people. Listeners didn't quite get what we were

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Speaker 1: trying to do, and that's a problem. One of the

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Speaker 1: hardest parts of my job is being able to communicate

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Speaker 1: ideas that aren't always easy to communicate, and I want

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Speaker 1: to do a better job with that when it comes

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Speaker 1: to markets score. So Brandon and I went back into

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Speaker 1: the lab and we've emerged with a different type of

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Speaker 1: way to talk about market Score, and that's what I'm

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Speaker 1: going to talk about today, and I'll be able to

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Speaker 1: provide more concrete examples of who the metric likes and

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Speaker 1: dislikes here in twenty twenty six before get into that, though,

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Speaker 1: as a reminder, all of this market score stuff, along

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Speaker 1: with game theory talk, strategy talk, rankings and tiers and more,

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Speaker 1: are all in this year's Late Round Draft Guide that's

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Speaker 1: available for pre.

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Speaker 2: Order right now on the new Lateround dot com.

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Speaker 1: Or you can become an all access member on the

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Speaker 1: site where you also get free access to the Draft

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Speaker 1: Guide and the Prospect Guide as well.

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Speaker 2: As just becoming a member.

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Speaker 1: It's all up to you, but to learn more, check

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Speaker 1: out lateround dot com. Now, if you didn't listen to

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Speaker 1: the market Score episode from a few weeks ago, no worries.

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Speaker 1: You don't need to go back and listen to it.

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Speaker 1: In fact, you might be more confused if you do that. Basically,

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Speaker 1: the idea of market score stems from the Zap Model.

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Speaker 1: As you guys know by now, the ZAP model is

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Speaker 1: my prospect model that looks at different collegiate inputs to

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Speaker 1: determine how well a player's going to perform in fantasy

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Speaker 1: football across the first three years of his NFL career.

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Speaker 1: A central piece of that model is draft capital, or

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Speaker 1: where a player gets selected in the NFL draft. Draft

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Speaker 1: capital captures a lot of things that we should care

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Speaker 1: about for fantasy purposes, and it's pretty predictive when we'll

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Speaker 1: get how well a player performs in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: No surprise there. The higher a player.

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Speaker 1: Gets drafted, generally speaking, the better he's going to perform

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Speaker 1: in fantasy. When I sat back and thought about it,

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Speaker 1: I've realized that I've kind of been doing the exact

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Speaker 1: same thing as the ZAP model, but for season long leagues.

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Speaker 2: For years, I just didn't have a model for it.

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Speaker 2: Let me explain.

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Speaker 1: If you've read previous iterations of the Late Round Draft Guide,

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Speaker 1: or even if you've just listened to this podcast, then

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Speaker 1: you've read all of my analysis on average draft position expectation,

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Speaker 1: or how many points we'd expect a player to score

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Speaker 1: at a particular ADP. Essentially, when you do some regression analysis,

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Speaker 1: you can find the number of points you'd anticipate a

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Speaker 1: player to score based on where he's drafted. A wide

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Speaker 1: receiver picked fiftieth overall might be projected to score thirteen

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Speaker 1: pper points per game all based on history, so one

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Speaker 1: seventieth overall might be at like eleven, and that's just

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Speaker 1: based on what's happened historically. So right now here in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, based on current ADP we can estimate

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Speaker 1: a player's pper points per game output.

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Speaker 2: It's a way to use the market in.

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Speaker 1: Order to get a general understanding of how many points

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Speaker 1: per game a player might score. So we have average

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Speaker 1: draft position for season long leagues, then we have draft

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Speaker 1: capital for prospecting purposes. Those are both market values for

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Speaker 1: season long leagues. ADP is telling us what the general

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Speaker 1: fantasy football market thinks about a player for the NFL draft.

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Speaker 1: In the NFL itself, draft capital is telling us what

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Speaker 1: the NFL thinks about a player. Now, as we know,

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Speaker 1: the ZAP model then takes that draft capital input and

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Speaker 1: it finds a score for a prospect based on additional

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Speaker 1: inputs like a just at total yards per team play

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Speaker 1: or breakout score for market score. We're going to do

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Speaker 1: the exact same thing, but instead of looking at collegiate metrics,

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Speaker 1: we'll be looking at previous season numbers aside from rookies,

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Speaker 1: where we will actually lean on some of those college metrics.

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Speaker 1: Market score isn't going to show you how many points

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Speaker 1: above or below expected you should expect a player to perform.

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Speaker 1: We ran into some issues when describing market score that

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Speaker 1: way because expected points per game and relating back to

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Speaker 1: expected points per game was kind of confusing people. Instead,

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Speaker 1: we're quite literally going to be looking at market score

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Speaker 1: the same way we look at the ZAP model, on

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Speaker 1: a scale from zero to one hundred.

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Speaker 2: Just like the ZAP model. We can do some cool.

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Speaker 1: Things with this, like showing how many points per game

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Speaker 1: we'd expect the player to score given his market score,

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Speaker 1: or telling you what overall ADP we'd give the player

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Speaker 1: to break even, essentially telling you where he probably should

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Speaker 1: be drafted. We can find player comps too, which is

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Speaker 1: one of my favorite ways to use this metric, and

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Speaker 1: this is just based off of a player's current ADP

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Speaker 1: and some previous season metrics that give that ADP more signal.

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Speaker 1: You can honestly think about market scores a formulaic way

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Speaker 1: to rank players. Now, I won't be ranking my players

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Speaker 1: that way, but market score will be part of my

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Speaker 1: process when I do rank players.

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Speaker 2: Now, something we ran.

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Speaker 1: Into in developing this metric is just how scattered late

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Speaker 1: round picks are. There's almost no correlation between ADP and

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Speaker 1: actual points per game for late round selections, so using

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Speaker 1: a formula might not be very helpful for those players.

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Speaker 1: With that being said, late round quarterbacks and late round

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Speaker 1: tight ends they're very important to the game of fantasy football.

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Speaker 1: Because quarterbacks and tight ends they're low in demand positions,

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Speaker 1: we can't just ignore them. We decided that the players

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Speaker 1: who would receive market scores would be any quarterback or

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Speaker 1: tight end drafted in the top one eighty, which is

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Speaker 1: the top fifteen rounds of a twelve team league. For

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Speaker 1: running backs and wide receivers, where far more of them

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Speaker 1: are drafted early. We cap things at pick one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty overall, so if a player falls out of

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Speaker 1: those ranges, he will not have a market score. So

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Speaker 1: non dart throw players get scores between zero and one hundred.

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Speaker 1: A score of like three doesn't mean the players undraftable

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Speaker 1: like it does with the ZAP model, because remember we're

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Speaker 1: dealing with top ten round picks for running backs and

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Speaker 1: wide receivers.

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Speaker 2: With that being said, we can definitely say, hey.

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Speaker 1: Historically, players with a score of three have done X, Y,

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Speaker 1: Z and PPR points per game. In essence, market score

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Speaker 1: is giving us more context for player evaluation, and it's

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Speaker 1: leveraging the market to do so that's really what this

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Speaker 1: comes down to. And since we reformatted everything, including some

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Speaker 1: of the inputs in the model, let's talk about what

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Speaker 1: market score is saying here in twenty twenty six. I

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Speaker 1: can look at market score right now and tell you

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Speaker 1: who it's generally higher or lower on this year. I'll

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Speaker 1: give you one player it's higher or lower on versus

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Speaker 1: the market at quarterback and tight end, and then two

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Speaker 1: of them at running back and wide receiver, and we'll

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Speaker 1: talk about some player comps to really help wrap your

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Speaker 1: head around what's going on here. At quarterback, market score

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Speaker 1: is very high on Jalen Hurts. In fact, Hurts is

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Speaker 1: the second highest market score at the moment, barely ahead

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Speaker 1: of Lamar Jackson. His score is seventy one point eight,

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Speaker 1: which gives him honestly about a fifty percent chance to

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Speaker 1: score twenty or more points per game this year. Josh Allen,

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Speaker 1: by the way, he's at a score of one hundred

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Speaker 1: given what he did last year and where he's being

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Speaker 1: drafted this year. But Jalen Hurts looks like one of

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Speaker 1: the bigger values according to the metric right now, and

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Speaker 1: I want to reiterate a couple of things here. First,

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Speaker 1: this score can and will change. Average draft position is

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Speaker 1: the baseline of this metric, So if a player's ADP increases,

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Speaker 1: that's telling us that there's something more to be desired

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Speaker 1: about that player's profile because the market wants him more,

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Speaker 1: so his market score is going to get better. Second, please, please, please,

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Speaker 1: don't think this is how I'm ranking players. I do

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Speaker 1: not have Jalen Hurts as my QB two, but I

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Speaker 1: do think it's an interesting way to be a little

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Speaker 1: bit more objective with our processes, to ask more questions,

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Speaker 1: and it tried not to be two high or too

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Speaker 1: low on certain players. Really this exact same way that

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Speaker 1: I talked about the ZAP model. Jalen Hurts has some

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Speaker 1: really interesting comps. Though. The way comps are created for

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Speaker 1: market score is by looking at a player's market score obviously,

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Speaker 1: but also his overall ADP, his positional rank, and then

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Speaker 1: his career year. Those are all wid based on importance,

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Speaker 1: so career year gets less importance for the similarity score

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Speaker 1: than some of the other metrics do. Now, admittedly Jalen

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Speaker 1: Hurts doesn't have a ton of super close comps. His

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Speaker 1: closest one is a similarity score of eighty two point three.

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Speaker 1: A lot of players have multiple guys above ninety, But

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Speaker 1: that top comp for Jalen Hurts is unfortunately Kyler Murray

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Speaker 1: from two years ago, which honestly pretty fair. I was

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Speaker 1: high on Murray that year, as was the market. It's

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Speaker 1: a mobile quarterback who was in year six of his

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Speaker 1: NFL career and he had almost identical overall ADP. Murray

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Speaker 1: scored about seventeen standard Fantasy points per game that year.

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Speaker 2: That was a huge bummer, so it's a little scary

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Speaker 2: for her.

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Speaker 1: But within this ten player comp sample, we also get

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Speaker 1: multiple twenty plus point per game players like Joe Burrow

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, Cam Newton in twenty eighteen, Drew

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Speaker 1: Brees in twenty eighteen, Russell Wilson in twenty seventeen, and

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Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson in twenty twenty. In total, it's a pretty

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Speaker 1: good outcome for Jalen Hurts. Now, on the flip side,

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Speaker 1: market score still really does not like Matthew Stafford like

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Speaker 1: far more than I do. But Stafford's the QB twelve

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Speaker 1: according to the ADP that we're using right now in

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Speaker 1: market Score has him as a low end QB two.

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Speaker 1: That's definitely not where i'd rank him, like I said,

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Speaker 1: but it's seeing the touchdown rate regression that I've been

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Speaker 1: talking about on the show, which is something the market

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Speaker 1: usually doesn't factor in enough. It actually only gives him,

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Speaker 1: based on historical results, about an eleven percent chance to

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Speaker 1: score eighteen or more points per game this year, which

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Speaker 1: again I don't subjectively agree with, and the model is

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Speaker 1: not going to be perfect to me. It's just a

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Speaker 1: way of saying that market Score is not a big

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Speaker 1: fan of Matthew Stafford, and funny enough, Matthew Stafford his

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Speaker 1: top two comps are also Matthew Stafford. It's the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two season where he scored just twelve points per game,

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Speaker 1: and then his twenty twenty season where he was at

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Speaker 1: about sixteen. One thing I'll say about Stafford though, is

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Speaker 1: that the comps really don't know exactly what to do

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Speaker 1: with him. His top one has a seventy two point

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Speaker 1: six similarity. That's not high at all. That's probably one

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Speaker 1: of the things that hold on to if I were

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Speaker 1: really into Stafford this year. Now moving on to tight end,

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Speaker 1: market Score is literally obsessed with Brock Bauers like it

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Speaker 1: thinks that he should comfortably be a first round pick.

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Speaker 1: It's got a pretty big gap between Bowers and Trey

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Speaker 1: McBride too. Tight End looks at a lot of factors

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Speaker 1: in the model and one of them is wide receiver

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Speaker 1: competition score. That's a huge reason that Bowers has looked

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Speaker 1: at so favorably. We know the wide receivers on that

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Speaker 1: Raiders team they're lacking in a big way, and that

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Speaker 1: score is driven by the ADPs of those players. But

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Speaker 1: like you look at Bauers comps and they're amazing. His

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Speaker 1: top one is twenty two, twenty five Tray McBride. We

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Speaker 1: know how that worked out, almost nineteen pper points per

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Speaker 1: game and a league winning type pick. McBride had a

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Speaker 1: slightly lower ADP, but he had a perfect market score,

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Speaker 1: which is what we're looking at with Bowers right now.

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Speaker 1: And it pains me to say this, but Colston Loveland

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Speaker 1: is not beloved by market Score. Honestly, the Bears pass catchers,

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Speaker 1: they're iffy in general according to this metric, and it's

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Speaker 1: because of the competition factor, which I think deep down

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Speaker 1: that's everyone's concern in some way, right that instead of

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Speaker 1: just one or two of these players emerging, all three

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Speaker 1: of them Loveland, Luther, Burden, Romadunza, each of them have

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Speaker 1: pretty good seasons, but.

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Speaker 2: They're not able to totally live up to ADP.

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Speaker 1: I'm the kind of fantasy manager who wants to bet

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Speaker 1: on some of these players to emerge, because that's where

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Speaker 1: ceiling outcomes could really hit. But I do think Loveland's

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Speaker 1: forty nine point one score, which is one point below

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Speaker 1: Tyler Warrens right now, it's reflecting that it's a way

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Speaker 1: for us to stay grounded with our evaluation, even if

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Speaker 1: we don't blindly follow that score. Now, let's go to

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Speaker 1: running back Jamier Gibbs, b John Robinson, and Christian McCaffrey.

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Speaker 1: They all look like smashes according to market Score. But

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Speaker 1: then there's also Ashton Genty. He's got the fourth best

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Speaker 1: market score among all running backs. He's looked at as

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Speaker 1: the RB four, partially because he's young, he's a stud,

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Speaker 1: and he had volume last year, but also because of

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Speaker 1: what I said with Bowers, there's opportunity for him to

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Speaker 1: be the central piece of this offense and market Score

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Speaker 1: is recognizing that genty's top comp is Eddie Lacy in

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Speaker 1: twenty fourteen, his second year in the league, where he

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Speaker 1: scored seventeen PPR points per game. People forget that Lacy

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Speaker 1: was actually really valuable for the first two seasons of

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Speaker 1: his career in fantasy football. And then genty's other top comp,

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Speaker 1: which is a similarity score of ninety, is Ezekiel Elliott.

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Speaker 2: In twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 1: Z scored almost twenty one PPR points per game that year,

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Speaker 1: his second year in the NFL. There's a very real

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Speaker 1: chance I'll be even higher on genty after digging into

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Speaker 1: his market score. Another player to call out favorably is

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Speaker 1: a Marion Hampton. Market Score loves these year two backs,

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Speaker 1: Hampton being one of them. Hampton has a lot of

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Speaker 1: close market score comps, like Dalvin Cook in twenty eighteen

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Speaker 1: when he scored just fourteen PPER points per game. There's

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Speaker 1: also Kareem Hunt in twenty eighteen as a second year

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Speaker 1: player when he posted twenty one. And then he gets

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Speaker 1: some Miles Sanders, Juo Bernard, Christian McCaffrey, and Jamior Gibbs

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Speaker 1: all in their second seasons too, So there are some

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Speaker 1: good upside comps. But even a player like Sanders, he's

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Speaker 1: not a tremendous talent, but he still gave us RB

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Speaker 1: two numbers. I think the comps for Hampton tell a

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Speaker 1: story that his floor isn't as scary as you might think,

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Speaker 1: but there's really a fun ceiling. Now on the flip

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Speaker 1: side at running back, I want to first call out

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Speaker 1: that the first iteration seemed to really like Kyle Manungai

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Speaker 1: and Blake Korm the first iteration of market Score, this

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Speaker 1: one doesn't. Things were changing the inputs. I just want

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Speaker 1: to call that out and correct myself. But market Score

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Speaker 1: is not the biggest fan either of Jadarium Price. He's

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Speaker 1: got a score of twenty four point three, which is

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Speaker 1: more in line with someone like Ramandre Stevenson or Kenneth

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Speaker 1: Gainwell than in is Ba Shall Tuton or quin Shawn Judkins,

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Speaker 1: which is where he goes around. There's some market related

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Speaker 1: trends that don't mind Genarian Price, but for rookies in

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Speaker 1: market Score, the ZAP model naturally is a big input.

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Speaker 1: And while Price wasn't terrible within the ZAP model thanks

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Speaker 1: to Teammates Scorer, he definitely wasn't great. Price's top comp

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Speaker 1: in market scores another rookie in Carrie on Johnson, who

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Speaker 1: actually wasn't that bad at thirteen point nine PPR points

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Speaker 1: per game, But then you get Bishop Sanke, JK. Dobbins, TJ. Yelden.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't have any true sealing outcomes among the top

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Speaker 1: ten on his comp list, more of like solid RB

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Speaker 1: twos as a high end outcome, which is to be

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Speaker 1: expected as a rookie, but that does say that he

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Speaker 1: might be a little bit overvalued. Tony Pollard's the other

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Speaker 1: player to call out here. His market score is eighteen

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Speaker 1: point five, which is close to ric o'dowdell and not

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Speaker 1: that far away from like Rashad White, who's going thirty

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Speaker 1: picks later. Pollard's top comps are legitimately frightening their older

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Speaker 1: backs who were still holding on to dcent ADPs, but

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Speaker 1: they failed to reach even ten p PUER points per game

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Speaker 1: in that given season. Nick Chubb in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: Latavius Murray in twenty nineteen, Devin Singletary in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: Maurice Jones Drew in twenty fourteen. He eventually gets a

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Speaker 1: good comp in Fred Jackson back in twenty fourteen and

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Speaker 1: David Montgomery and twenty twenty three. But I've said it

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Speaker 1: before and I'll say it again. Tony Pollard scares me

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Speaker 1: this year. I know he doesn't have the toughest competition

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Speaker 1: in the world, but I think there's plenty of variance

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Speaker 1: with his profile, like he should be one tier down

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Speaker 1: versus going around players like Ramandre Stevenson and Jalen Warren.

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Speaker 1: So that's running back. Let's finish things up with wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: Market Score really likes the top of the position this year.

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Speaker 1: Nico Collins is probably one to call out, specifically because

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Speaker 1: his score of seventy four point three is actually higher

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Speaker 1: than Drake London's, which is sixty seven point five.

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Speaker 2: Nico's top comp is.

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Speaker 1: Twenty four fourteen's Jordy Nelson, where he scored nineteen point

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Speaker 1: six PPR points per game. Three of his top four

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Speaker 1: comps hit seventeen and a half PPR points per game.

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Speaker 1: It's a really good spot for Nico overall. A little

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Speaker 1: bit further down the list, I've had a really hard

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Speaker 1: time ranking like the round three to round five wide

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Speaker 1: receivers this year because.

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Speaker 2: I just really like all of them.

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Speaker 1: But I've got to say, market Score likes Ttereroa McMillan

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Speaker 1: more than I expected. Not that I think he's a

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Speaker 1: questionable talent at all anything, but the dude is a stud.

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Speaker 1: The situation is just very scary, given how little they

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Speaker 1: throw the ball and how strong Bryce Young has been

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Speaker 1: as a passer. But t Mac friend of the show.

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Speaker 1: By the way, t Mac has a score of sixty

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Speaker 1: two point eight, which is slightly ahead of a Mecca Abuka.

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Speaker 1: You could throw him in the exact same bucket. And

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Speaker 1: because these comps are looking at market Score overall ADP,

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Speaker 1: positional rank, and career year, both te Mac and Abuka

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Speaker 1: share a lot of the same comps. They basically share

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Speaker 1: identical comps, and that includes their top one, which.

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Speaker 2: Is year two Juju Smith Schuster.

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Speaker 1: That year, Juju scored seventeen point six PPR points per game. Now,

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Speaker 1: if you look at the bad side at wide receiver,

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Speaker 1: I think the most obvious callout is Mike Evans. I

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Speaker 1: don't hate Mike Evans as much as market score does,

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Speaker 1: mostly because I think the fit in San Francisco could

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Speaker 1: make him this year's DeVante Adams with maybe even more

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Speaker 1: yardage upside. But I definitely see the downside which is

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Speaker 1: why I'm not overweight on Evans right now. In Best Ball,

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Speaker 1: Evans has a market score of twenty nine point eight.

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Speaker 1: That's more in line with like Quentin Johnston like, it's

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Speaker 1: very low for where Evans generally goes. Some of you

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Speaker 1: were gonna hate hearing this, but his top comp and

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Speaker 1: market score by far is Alan Robinson's twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: That was the year that Robinson changed teams just like

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Speaker 1: Evans did, and he went to the Rams and he

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Speaker 1: was just a massive, massive bust. Now, I really really

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Speaker 1: don't think that we're gonna see that outcome from Mike Evans.

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Speaker 1: And we did get a couple of good top ten

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Speaker 1: comps for Evans, like Emmanuel Sanders and twenty eighteen, but

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Speaker 1: it just goes to show how valadle this situation is

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Speaker 1: given where you're drafting him.

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Speaker 2: And then the last player I'm gonna call out is

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Speaker 2: Matthew Golden.

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Speaker 1: I bought into Golden and Best Ball because his cost

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Speaker 1: is pretty cheap. But even at that price tag, which

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Speaker 1: is close to a wide receiver fifty one hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventeenth overall according to the ADP that we're looking at

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Speaker 1: for market score at that price tag, he's got a

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Speaker 1: market score of one, largely because he didn't do anything

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Speaker 1: last year, and he's obviously got competition based on ADP

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Speaker 1: and Christian Watson, Jaden Reid, and Tucker Craft. Golden's top

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Speaker 1: comp by far is sky Moore's year two. There was

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Speaker 1: some hope for more coming off of a bad rookie season,

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Speaker 1: but it just didn't develop. If you want a more

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Speaker 1: optimistic look for Matthew Golden, it's Jamison Williams in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four as a third year player, maybe Michael Gallup

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Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen as a year two player, But neither

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Speaker 1: of those guys were league winners. And they're the only

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Speaker 1: two players in Matthew Golden's top ten accomplist who scored

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Speaker 1: more than nine PPR points per game. I'm not quite

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Speaker 1: there with Golden, but it should bring you back to

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Speaker 1: earth a bit if.

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Speaker 2: You're buying heavily.

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Speaker 1: Now, Like I said, all of this is just another

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Speaker 1: tool to help us get closer to the right answers.

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Speaker 1: You don't have to blindly agree. Similarly, you don't have

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Speaker 1: to blindly agree with the ZAP model and what that says.

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Speaker 1: Context is always key, but this version of market score

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Speaker 1: the one that we're using moving forward. It's more predictive

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Speaker 1: than average rap position and it should be helpful on

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Speaker 1: our journey to winning a fantasy title. That's it for

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Speaker 1: today's show, though thanks to Alvy for listening. If you

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Speaker 1: had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make

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Speaker 1: sure you are best urging for it pretty much anywhere

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Speaker 1: podcasts can be found, and don't follow me on Twitter

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Speaker 1: and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening everyone.

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Speaker 1: I'll be back on Wednesday on the YouTube channel with

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Speaker 1: David Kitchen for the Late Round Fantasy Football Show.

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Speaker 2: And then this week it's a.

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Speaker 1: Mailbag week, so I got a mailbag episode for you

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Speaker 1: dropping on Friday.

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Speaker 2: I'll talk to you guys then