WEBVTT - Bill Barhydt Talks Crypto Outlook for 2026

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.040
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:07.840 --> 0:00:09.840
<v Speaker 2>Well, with more on the year that was and what

0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:13.400
<v Speaker 2>may lay ahead, particularly in crypto. Now we're joined by

0:00:13.400 --> 0:00:17.360
<v Speaker 2>Bill Barheit, CEO and founder of Abra, a global platform

0:00:17.440 --> 0:00:20.360
<v Speaker 2>for digital asset, prime services and wealth management for high

0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:24.640
<v Speaker 2>net worth individuals and institutions. So if you're Abra, Bill,

0:00:24.720 --> 0:00:27.639
<v Speaker 2>I'm tempted to ask, when is the Cadabra coming in?

0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:28.400
<v Speaker 2>Is it next year?

0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:33.400
<v Speaker 1>Good question, Good to see you, Thanks for having me. Look,

0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:36.720
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of things that, as they say, history

0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:41.000
<v Speaker 1>doesn't necessarily repeat itself, put it off in rhymes. There's

0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:43.400
<v Speaker 1>a lot of things going on that feel like twenty

0:00:43.440 --> 0:00:48.040
<v Speaker 1>twenty to me, we had a market crash at the beginning,

0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:52.040
<v Speaker 1>COVID induced here, we had you just brought up a

0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:55.520
<v Speaker 1>crash in October which was induced by the initially one

0:00:55.560 --> 0:01:00.000
<v Speaker 1>hundred percent tiret announcement on China, but also some serious

0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:04.360
<v Speaker 1>issues that were uncovered afterwards in a one of the

0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:09.000
<v Speaker 1>large exchanges internationally. And then you know, gold rallied right,

0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:12.600
<v Speaker 1>and in twenty twenty, gold rallied from I think it

0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:15.560
<v Speaker 1>was fourteen hundred to two thousand. Silver rallied from about

0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:19.640
<v Speaker 1>twelve to almost thirty. Bitcoin stayed in a range at

0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:22.399
<v Speaker 1>that point, and it's trading very close to where it

0:01:22.440 --> 0:01:25.600
<v Speaker 1>started the year right now. So you know, a lot

0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:29.600
<v Speaker 1>of this sounds familiar. But by the way, after gold peaked,

0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:32.559
<v Speaker 1>we had a rotation into risk assets in twenty twenty,

0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:35.240
<v Speaker 1>and bitcoin went on an epic run from twelve thousand

0:01:35.319 --> 0:01:39.840
<v Speaker 1>to over sixty thousand, right, and the market cap of

0:01:39.920 --> 0:01:42.720
<v Speaker 1>the entire crypto space went up by eight x by

0:01:42.760 --> 0:01:46.800
<v Speaker 1>mid twenty twenty one. So now gold is near record

0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:51.800
<v Speaker 1>highs around forty five hundred, Silver's around eighty dollars. Bitcoin

0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:56.080
<v Speaker 1>has basically been sideways this year. I actually think it

0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:59.600
<v Speaker 1>went up significantly after the election because it was front

0:01:59.680 --> 0:02:04.520
<v Speaker 1>running the idea that all of the regulatory obstacles to

0:02:04.600 --> 0:02:08.360
<v Speaker 1>adoption we're going to be removed, which has proven mostly

0:02:08.440 --> 0:02:14.480
<v Speaker 1>true with additional legislation pending. Right we talked about October

0:02:14.520 --> 0:02:18.480
<v Speaker 1>liquidation events, So it feels like with the FED and

0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:23.680
<v Speaker 1>other liquidity catalysts, twenty twenty is going to repeat itself

0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:28.480
<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty six. Rate cuts, you know, leverage reserves

0:02:28.480 --> 0:02:31.600
<v Speaker 1>and the banks are likely to get really relaxed, which

0:02:31.639 --> 0:02:36.839
<v Speaker 1>means more leverage again. Regulatory to clarity, ETFs, et cetera,

0:02:36.880 --> 0:02:37.280
<v Speaker 1>et cetera.

0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:39.280
<v Speaker 3>Hey, Bill, one thing I do wonder. I mean, you

0:02:39.360 --> 0:02:43.240
<v Speaker 3>guys are a platform. You see things. You see investors,

0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:48.799
<v Speaker 3>what they are doing, high net worth individuals, also institutions

0:02:49.120 --> 0:02:52.200
<v Speaker 3>talk to us about activity, more money coming in, more

0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:54.640
<v Speaker 3>money going out. Give us some color on what you

0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:56.280
<v Speaker 3>are seeing on your platform.

0:02:56.680 --> 0:02:59.240
<v Speaker 1>Sure, so I think we're seeing a rotation. There's two

0:02:59.280 --> 0:03:02.480
<v Speaker 1>types of rotation we're seeing. The first is there was

0:03:02.560 --> 0:03:04.959
<v Speaker 1>a well known investor who referred to this as Bitcoin's

0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:07.560
<v Speaker 1>IPO moment. And what I think he meant by that

0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:11.080
<v Speaker 1>is we had people who've invested in bitcoin ten twelve

0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:13.680
<v Speaker 1>years ago who were taking a little bit of profits,

0:03:13.760 --> 0:03:16.320
<v Speaker 1>let's say fifteen to twenty percent of profits. That's a

0:03:16.320 --> 0:03:19.600
<v Speaker 1>lot of money because those people have massive concentrations. Their

0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:21.840
<v Speaker 1>entire wealth, if you've been holding for ten years, is

0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:24.919
<v Speaker 1>probably based on bitcoin. And so that IPO moment represented

0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:27.799
<v Speaker 1>a bit of a rotation. Now we're actually seeing a

0:03:27.880 --> 0:03:30.919
<v Speaker 1>rotation where a significant percentage of bitcoin is no longer

0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:34.000
<v Speaker 1>being held on exchanges. So we're not in exchange. We're

0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:37.480
<v Speaker 1>a wealth managing platform just like another ria. So money

0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:40.560
<v Speaker 1>coming into a platform like ours tends to stay there

0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:44.480
<v Speaker 1>for a very long time, stays in cold storage for

0:03:44.520 --> 0:03:47.200
<v Speaker 1>a very long time. Now we're seeing a lot of

0:03:47.200 --> 0:03:50.119
<v Speaker 1>clients asking to be able to borrow against those Bitcoin

0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:53.560
<v Speaker 1>holdings because they think that it's reached a long term

0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:55.720
<v Speaker 1>floor with significant outside.

0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:57.440
<v Speaker 2>Well to your customers not getting a little scared though,

0:03:57.720 --> 0:04:00.240
<v Speaker 2>because I mean, it is extraordinarily volatile at the best

0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:02.440
<v Speaker 2>of times. But just in the last three months, as

0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:05.360
<v Speaker 2>we could see, we're down, you know, twenty five percent.

0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:07.880
<v Speaker 2>Sure we're higher than we were, you know before the

0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:08.800
<v Speaker 2>President took off us.

0:04:08.840 --> 0:04:12.240
<v Speaker 1>But still yeah, no, that's that's not a that's not

0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:15.160
<v Speaker 1>that's a trading phenomenon. Right, So in our world, first

0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:17.120
<v Speaker 1>of all, in video at points this year, was and

0:04:17.279 --> 0:04:20.400
<v Speaker 1>Tesla rule were significantly more volatile than bitcoin. I would

0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:24.239
<v Speaker 1>also posit that, right, it's it's traders that drive that price.

0:04:24.240 --> 0:04:27.720
<v Speaker 1>The incremental float that's available for trading, and bitcoin is

0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:29.840
<v Speaker 1>not nearly as big as it used to be because

0:04:29.880 --> 0:04:32.080
<v Speaker 1>so much of it is locked up now, whether it's

0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:36.560
<v Speaker 1>ETFs or or in platforms like ours. Our our clients

0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:40.440
<v Speaker 1>are long term holders, they don't sell, and the rotation

0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:43.880
<v Speaker 1>of money out of our platform is nearly zero. And

0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:45.360
<v Speaker 1>that's not just the function of the fact that they

0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:47.640
<v Speaker 1>like our service, which I'm sure they do. It's that,

0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:50.719
<v Speaker 1>you know, our clients are just not interested in selling bitcoin.

0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:52.640
<v Speaker 1>The biggest question I get is what would I possibly

0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:56.599
<v Speaker 1>sell into? It's it's the best long term you know,

0:04:56.800 --> 0:05:00.400
<v Speaker 1>capital gains, potential asset that I own, right, and they're

0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:02.000
<v Speaker 1>not speculators.

0:05:01.279 --> 0:05:04.719
<v Speaker 3>By and large. What's important that you see from the

0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:10.680
<v Speaker 3>administration that continues the support of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:12.919
<v Speaker 3>We certainly know we have a White House safe to

0:05:12.920 --> 0:05:15.400
<v Speaker 3>say that is very favorable to the crypto environment. The

0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:18.039
<v Speaker 3>President's family is certainly involved in it. But what is

0:05:18.080 --> 0:05:20.560
<v Speaker 3>it that you expect in terms of the environment. They're

0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:22.840
<v Speaker 3>still trying to figure out regulatory there's still a long

0:05:22.880 --> 0:05:25.960
<v Speaker 3>ways to go. Does that get solved in twenty twenty six,

0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:30.120
<v Speaker 3>especially when you've got midterm you know, midterms looming and

0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:32.680
<v Speaker 3>maybe Congress coming back to kind of assert itself.

0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:36.440
<v Speaker 1>Good question. I see three things happening. The first is

0:05:37.240 --> 0:05:39.960
<v Speaker 1>we're going to get a second bill passed. In my opinion,

0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:43.600
<v Speaker 1>we got the stable coin legislation, the Genius Act passed,

0:05:43.600 --> 0:05:46.600
<v Speaker 1>which I think was pretty reasonable. We're about to get

0:05:46.600 --> 0:05:49.600
<v Speaker 1>the Clarity Act out of committee, I believe, which is

0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:52.400
<v Speaker 1>going to be the biggest overhaul in many ways to

0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:57.240
<v Speaker 1>securities and commodities regulation in decades, which is going to

0:05:57.279 --> 0:06:00.760
<v Speaker 1>make it easy for the second part of of my thesis,

0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:03.839
<v Speaker 1>which is the tokenization of everything. So you're going to

0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:07.880
<v Speaker 1>see markets globally, including the US, are to adopt tokenized

0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:12.200
<v Speaker 1>versions of equities, commodities, real estate, et cetera, et cetera.

0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:14.400
<v Speaker 1>And then the third I think you're going to see

0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:17.279
<v Speaker 1>more of the same as it relates to global and

0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:19.200
<v Speaker 1>specifically US debt markets.

0:06:19.279 --> 0:06:21.960
<v Speaker 2>Right where I have a problem with this build because

0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:25.039
<v Speaker 2>I wonder why replicate and why would you buy the

0:06:25.080 --> 0:06:26.960
<v Speaker 2>replica when you can buy the real thing.

0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:30.279
<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't buy a replica, So that's a good question.

0:06:30.320 --> 0:06:34.560
<v Speaker 1>There's a nuance there. So the early days of tokenization

0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:37.160
<v Speaker 1>are going to be tokenizing existing shares, which adds a

0:06:37.200 --> 0:06:39.279
<v Speaker 1>little bit of value, which I'll explain in a second,

0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:43.600
<v Speaker 1>But the real value comes in native tokenized equity issuance,

0:06:44.080 --> 0:06:47.400
<v Speaker 1>and that has huge advantages. The first is stocks are

0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:51.000
<v Speaker 1>stock markets are closed more than they're open. Okay, Crypto

0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:53.560
<v Speaker 1>markets don't close. So now all of a sudden you

0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:55.680
<v Speaker 1>have the opportunity to have a twenty four to seven

0:06:55.920 --> 0:07:00.479
<v Speaker 1>borderless market. Right, that is twenty four to seven, which

0:07:00.520 --> 0:07:03.680
<v Speaker 1>is what investors in twenty twenty five, twenty twenty six

0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:07.200
<v Speaker 1>wants in my opinion, right, that's number one, number two.

0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:09.800
<v Speaker 3>As I mentioned, Bill just got about thirty seconds, So

0:07:09.840 --> 0:07:12.120
<v Speaker 3>I just want to give you an opportunity to wrap up.

0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:14.800
<v Speaker 1>Go ahead, yeah, sure. And then the second part leads

0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:17.320
<v Speaker 1>to what I said before, What is the fastest scoring

0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:20.400
<v Speaker 1>service we see? It's people borrowing against the bitcoin. If

0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:24.840
<v Speaker 1>you've tokenized Apple shares, Tesla shares, it's now just as

0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:27.640
<v Speaker 1>easy to borrow against the value of those shares without

0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:30.239
<v Speaker 1>having to pay capital gains taxes as it is against bitcoin.

0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:32.400
<v Speaker 1>That is going to drive the tokenization of everything.

0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:34.440
<v Speaker 3>We will continue this no doubt. In twenty twenty six,

0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:37.480
<v Speaker 3>Bill Barhyde, he's founder and CEO of Auber, joining us