1 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. 2 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Allaway. Tracy, do you 3 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:25,240 Speaker 1: remember the episode that we did was not long after 4 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: the election at the time and maybe still is one 5 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:33,560 Speaker 1: of our biggest most popular Odd Lots ever. Oh, it's 6 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 1: definitely one of my personal favorites. And it was one 7 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: of the earliest odd Lots episodes as well. Right, I 8 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 1: guess maybe at the time being the biggest at the 9 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: time is not saying as much, but nonetheless it was. 10 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:48,880 Speaker 1: It was very popular. We talked to an archaeologist about 11 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: civilizational collapse, right, not just any archaeologists, though, one who 12 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: has been called at various times the real life Indiana Jones. Right. So, 13 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 1: I was like right after the election, and of course, 14 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 1: like half the country was really freak out. You know, 15 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: half the country is probably thrilled. They half the country 16 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 1: that was really freaking out was very interested in this idea, like, 17 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: oh God, what does the end of civilization looks like? 18 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,119 Speaker 1: Look like? Because maybe that's what we're seeing now, right, 19 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,959 Speaker 1: And so we brought on an expert, a literal expert 20 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,680 Speaker 1: in the end or collapses of civilizations, right, And so 21 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: very all the ominous signs we walked through it. He's 22 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 1: an expert on the collapse of the minds. And you 23 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: know what parallels, if any, there are between then and 24 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 1: what we're seeing in modern society in the US, Well, 25 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: we have them back. That is very exciting. Exactly. So 26 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: we were once again talking about collapse and ancient civilizations, 27 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: but our guests this time. He has been doing more 28 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: work lately, specifically on like parallels to kind of the 29 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 1: business world and sort of taking theories from management and 30 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: ekenn mix and applying them to see what parallels there 31 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 1: are between that and again the what causes an organization 32 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 1: to collapse? So I find this really interesting because at 33 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,519 Speaker 1: the moment, in particular, you have a lot of handwringing 34 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: over what's going on with the big tech firms, and 35 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 1: of course, for technology, culture is such an embedded aspect 36 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 1: of a tech firm, and so people are talking about 37 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:26,799 Speaker 1: whether or not those tech firms are maybe not going 38 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 1: to collapse, although I guess you know there's a question 39 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 1: mark over things like we work, but whether or not 40 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 1: they're heading for hard times and how that culture is 41 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: feeding into that and even if you don't get outright 42 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:43,240 Speaker 1: collapse Like this idea of sort of endemic cultural problems 43 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 1: that lead to rot, I think is a really important 44 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 1: phenomenon across all kinds of businesses beyond tech. Like just 45 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 1: think about banks and or think about a bank like 46 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 1: Wells Fargo that has had numerous fines and scandals over 47 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: the years. Despite the best efforts of management to root 48 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 1: out all that stuff. It should extraordinarily difficult, it seems 49 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 1: to undo the rot that can form and set a 50 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: complex organization. Right, So, how does that culture, how does 51 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: that organizational structure within a company actually impact its business, 52 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 1: and how does it change over time? And what can 53 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: we learn from the mayans to preserve the robustness of companies? 54 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:24,519 Speaker 1: All right, So, without further ado, we want to bring 55 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 1: back for a repeat performance on odd LODs. Arthur Demrist. 56 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 1: He's the Ingram Professor of Anthropology and director at Vanderbilt's 57 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: Institute of Mesoamerican Archaeology. Arthur, thank you very much for 58 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:40,839 Speaker 1: joining us. Hi. Yeah, I'm happy to be on here. 59 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: You know, this is an audience that I think matters. 60 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 1: Thank you, It's it's good to be on here. I 61 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: make one quick correction that that collapsed got little to 62 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 1: do with Trump. I've been doing this since eighty nine 63 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: and it's been building slowly, and then in the last 64 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: ten years, all of a sudden, I'm in great demand 65 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 1: everywhere to give talk. So I didn't mean that you 66 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: just started jumping on the collapsed bandwagon. I do think 67 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 1: that helped explain the interest. At least you know that there. 68 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: I think it's the stuff that I worry about is 69 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:22,359 Speaker 1: more serious, as as the information technology people and business people, 70 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 1: and of course it's the global warming issue and uh, 71 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 1: but there's really I was surprised, that's one reason why 72 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 1: I'm doing this, that the interest was coming from beyond 73 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:37,840 Speaker 1: academics and for people who can actually make a difference. 74 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 1: And so I sort of shifted over to communicating on 75 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 1: these kind of venues. And then I learned that business 76 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 1: strategic management theory, partnership theory, these things work really well 77 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: on looking at ancient civilizations. And so you know, me 78 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 1: and my collaborators, who one of them isn't expert in 79 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:04,239 Speaker 1: strategic management. It became a feedback cycle, you know, where 80 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 1: we're providing information, we're trying to we have articles submitted 81 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:12,480 Speaker 1: to business journals and on the other hand, um, we're 82 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:17,160 Speaker 1: using that for my archaeology journals to try to explain collapse, 83 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 1: although I'm getting, you know, some plaque on that because 84 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: business is bad, it's evil capitalists like you guys. So thanks, 85 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: uh so, Arthur, maybe just to begin with, can you 86 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: walk us through the parallels between a society like the 87 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 1: Mayan civilization and what we see in business today? Wow? 88 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: Well I will, that's my that's a book. But um, 89 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 1: a civilizations people don't think if they sort of think 90 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: like a bunch of people who kind of do the 91 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 1: same things. Civilizations that their core networks they're primarily political 92 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: and economic networks because the ideas and the religion, the idiot, 93 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 1: that's tradition that continues even after collapse and so on. 94 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 1: But their networks and the political and economic networks are, 95 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 1: you know, as today are always almost inseparable. So you 96 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 1: start to look at why whole networks can collapse, and 97 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 1: then how how responses are because most collapses don't happen 98 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 1: the government's corporations whatever, they're problem solving institutions. So there 99 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 1: are responses and you can see which ones succeed or fail. 100 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 1: And of course that leads right into the kind of 101 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: theory that everyone is doing in management, strategic management, investment. 102 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 1: I mean, you guys are in the you know, your 103 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 1: channels in the prediction business, which is what I'm kind 104 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,840 Speaker 1: of into. So a lot of that applies a lot 105 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: of the same thing partnership networks. We were using it 106 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 1: to explain the relationships between cities economically, in trade and politics, 107 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 1: and then ways in which those go bad and you have, uh, 108 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:08,839 Speaker 1: basically the equivalent of bankruptcies. Before we get into like 109 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 1: I want to like really sort of pull on some 110 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 1: of these reads here and the similarities and how you 111 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 1: can use management theory to understand archaeology and vice versa. 112 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: But before we dive down into that, Tracy mentioned in 113 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 1: the intro that people call you the real life Indiana Jones, 114 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: and so just to set the scene a little bit more, 115 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: like you're a real archaeologist in terms of what people 116 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: have in their heads, or you go to some remote 117 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 1: location and you squat down a lot and you dig 118 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 1: up dirt and you look at stuff, probably mostly pottery 119 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 1: and things like that. I'm guessing, just sort of talk 120 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 1: to us about what you've been up to a little 121 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: bit in terms of your day to day life since 122 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 1: the last time you appeared on the show. Well, you 123 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 1: know what, I I the Indiana Jones thing. I don't 124 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 1: mind it. I used to not like it that, you know, 125 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 1: I was told that once by Harrison Ford, and that 126 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: I discovered that it's good for business. You guys know 127 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: about that. I would be so flattered if Harrison Ford 128 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 1: call me Indiana Jones. Yeah, I'm sorry. It helps to 129 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 1: get the port. But I do exploratory archaeology. I accidentally 130 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 1: started working during the Civil War in El Salvador as 131 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 1: a graduate student, and because very few people are crazy, 132 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 1: I ended up being one of two archaeologists and then 133 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 1: finally just one of one, and I had a whole 134 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: kind of country to myself that was not much explored, 135 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 1: and I discovered it. Well, I mean that led to 136 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:37,319 Speaker 1: a very accelerated career and so ever since then, I 137 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:41,640 Speaker 1: actually go to those areas where nothing has been done before, 138 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 1: very little, and I do explore exploration and then we 139 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 1: do large scale, multi disciplinary projects. And that's the part 140 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 1: that's not like the Indiana Jones thing. I mean, you 141 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:54,959 Speaker 1: don't like, you know, read the glyphs and kissed the 142 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:56,320 Speaker 1: girl and shoot the guns and all that. I mean, 143 00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:00,240 Speaker 1: it's always and one ninety, but I'd say sixty. Extent 144 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: of it is lab work. But we study ancient cities 145 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 1: and right now, my entire project for the last twenty 146 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 1: years is studying an ancient economic network that holds together. 147 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: And we're following I mean, we're literally the research design 148 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:21,679 Speaker 1: is we do neutron activation other analyzes. We discovered that pottery, 149 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: jade or city in the volcanic glass is coming from 150 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: another place, so we go and dig that place, and 151 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: then we dig what we see about that and week 152 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: so we've we've actually covered I don't know, a thousand 153 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: square kilometers. But it isn't just the usual regional We 154 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:40,439 Speaker 1: are following an economic, an economic network. So there's I mean, 155 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 1: we do have we do dig lost cities in the jungle, 156 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 1: and we do have shootouts with the bad guys and 157 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: open tombs and all that, but that's just, you know, 158 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 1: that's just what you have to do to get started. 159 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: Then it becomes essentially the study of economy, politics, and 160 00:09:54,880 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 1: sociology of of cities and regions and networks. Uh. And 161 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: as as that work's gotten bigger, it's gotten more and 162 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: more parallel to contemporary economic networks. And I don't know 163 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 1: multinational corporations. So talk to us about what you've discovered then, 164 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: because you know, I remember a little bit from the 165 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 1: previous episode, but the mind civilization was quite unique in 166 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 1: many ways, and I remember you were talking about how 167 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 1: they developed a big trade network where goods were distributed 168 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: all over the jungle. What does that have to do 169 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:33,839 Speaker 1: with modern corporations or the modern economy? Well, um, and 170 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: again academic there's I've learned that there's a great range 171 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 1: of business theory and academic strategic management theory and so 172 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:47,560 Speaker 1: on is probably a little different. But their break their 173 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 1: studies than lead to uh, you know, the CFOs reading 174 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 1: about it and lead to something else. But one of 175 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 1: the things that they've been talking about for a long 176 00:10:56,360 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 1: time is just just an example, community networks, which would 177 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 1: be like the EU or or even the Western economy, 178 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 1: where you have partnerships that are based on multiple partners. 179 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:12,959 Speaker 1: They have an ideology that they develop and business practices 180 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:15,439 Speaker 1: have to be within a range of legitimation and all 181 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:19,319 Speaker 1: of that, and those kinds of community networks. A very 182 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:23,319 Speaker 1: tight one is what was developing in the jungle between 183 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:26,319 Speaker 1: all these different cities and then it's stabilized and there 184 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 1: was great wealth. But just as today when you when 185 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 1: you read these journals about UH innovation network, those are 186 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 1: very profitable, but that kind of slows and they have 187 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 1: a tendency to fall behind. So then you have uh 188 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 1: some firms or in this case city states that make 189 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 1: breakaway networks which are very high risk. Uh. It's it's 190 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 1: very much like the initial trading with China, you know, 191 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 1: which is a very high risk but very profitable. There's 192 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 1: high there's high gains, but there's high risk. We're seeing 193 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:08,560 Speaker 1: right now in dealing with culture societies, economic systems that 194 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 1: have a different ethic, that have a different economic culture, 195 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:16,440 Speaker 1: and reading about that, that is exactly what happened with 196 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 1: this great city state Conquent. They they were the big 197 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 1: center for trade and of city and all sorts of 198 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 1: things coming from the highlands. The Maya economic network that 199 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 1: was so successful, this community network, all interacting with each 200 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,559 Speaker 1: other very stable, started to have a lot of problems 201 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 1: and the rulers and the nobles of this city part 202 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 1: of the South made a decision to kind of turn away. 203 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 1: And it was very surprising. I mean, in the terms 204 00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 1: of today it would be like China and given transport 205 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 1: more and they started trading with long distance partners in 206 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: other areas, forming you know, initially it's like dietic relationships 207 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,439 Speaker 1: that they say. It's just like you know, on city 208 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 1: with another city. It doesn't have the stability of a 209 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 1: multi partner network. They were they in forty years. They 210 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 1: just boomed into this incredibly wealthy center and there was 211 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 1: this giant it's like Venice, this giant purely commercial, non 212 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:23,080 Speaker 1: non territorial kingdom, and uh it ben crashed and the 213 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,959 Speaker 1: whole story is just just just like stuff out of 214 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 1: your journal. So, Arthur, how did how did Conquin manage 215 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 1: to sort of um differentiate itself from the rest of 216 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: the mind civilization Because often when people think about big companies, 217 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 1: big multinationals, there's a lot of conformity there, and there's 218 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 1: a sort of organ organizational structure that encourages, I guess, cohesiveness. 219 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 1: You're not necessarily rewarded for taking a risk and going 220 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:53,319 Speaker 1: off and doing something completely different. Conformity tends to be rewarded. 221 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:57,959 Speaker 1: So how did this particular city managed to break away? Well, again, 222 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 1: this is where this is where the theories coming from 223 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 1: management schools really help. You know, this institutional entrepreneurship where 224 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: you have entrepreneurship. But it changes. It's like it changes 225 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 1: the game. It's playing a different game. And that's one 226 00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: thing people don't realize. It is very high risk. And 227 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 1: these rulers were not stupid. You know, they would make 228 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 1: these innovations. And the scary part about responding to collapse 229 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 1: is that they would do the right thing, but it 230 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 1: would usually fail because of this legitimacy because both you know, 231 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 1: the consumers and the other firms, let's say, would would 232 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 1: not buy into it. Give me, what's an example. Okay, 233 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: so when you say they did the right thing when 234 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 1: confronted with the risk of collapse, but it but it 235 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: didn't work. It failed what specifically given? Give an example 236 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: of Okay, here's give an example. If you're talking about again, 237 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 1: well again, you know there's I am just written something 238 00:14:56,640 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 1: on four different and using a straw tgic Man with 239 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 1: my colleague, I collaborate with UH Endowed Share and Strategic 240 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 1: Management and and khon Quent for example. I can tell 241 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 1: you about four four other states we just wrote on this, 242 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 1: but in khon quin the decision was too first shift 243 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 1: away in terms of their trading partners and what happens 244 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: when you have throughout history. When you have new trading partners, Uh, 245 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 1: there's these risks and stuff, but new ideas come in, 246 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: not just products, but new ideas about structuring, uh, your 247 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: own economic system. And when the Maya of kahn Quin 248 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 1: started trading with Mexican states that were far away and 249 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 1: had more market oriented economy. Every time they added a 250 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 1: new trading partner, the structure and economic system at khon 251 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 1: Quin changed. And one of the things is this vertical integration. 252 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 1: They were shipping stuff out, you know, in and out, 253 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: they were import exports. Then they started instead processing it, 254 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 1: first stage processing it, which of course increases the value, 255 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 1: and then they were shipping it out semi processed. And 256 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 1: then later they started whole new industries in like the 257 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 1: production of jade, and again preliminary state, not the final product, 258 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 1: but sort of reforms and uh, and they did it. 259 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 1: They started doing mass production, I mean just uge. It's 260 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 1: the largest jade workshop ever found in the Americas. And 261 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 1: so you see these business ideas coming in and again 262 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 1: studies of business architecture, you see it in everything. You 263 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 1: see the palace changing from a great royal residence over 264 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:55,200 Speaker 1: forty years as eight reconstructions to a giant almost like 265 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: an office building. It's just like like Venice, the nobles 266 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 1: are rising in power. They are they are almost they 267 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: the merchants involved. The king uh and his family eventually 268 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 1: get sort of pushed literally to the side of the 269 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 1: palace and the rest of it is like offices. And 270 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 1: this is very nice. But you know he is now 271 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: kind of legitimate or in chief. He's like head of marketing, 272 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,240 Speaker 1: and it seems that he doesn't really have that much 273 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 1: power and it's divided up so and you see it 274 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 1: in the architecture. In order to win over these foreign 275 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 1: partners and to uh, you know, legitimate these new relationships, 276 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 1: they build architectural things within their center that are of 277 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 1: the religious system of their new partners. So you know, 278 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,640 Speaker 1: like there's this giant ball court. The Maya ball game 279 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 1: was so important that you know that the game that 280 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 1: was a sacred and it was also entertainment. It was 281 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:57,679 Speaker 1: it was it was worse than Brazil. Is that the 282 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 1: one where they killed the losers? Now? Oh that that 283 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:03,719 Speaker 1: that's the killing or the not of the losers? Is 284 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,400 Speaker 1: there's so many I mean, all that stuff comes from 285 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,120 Speaker 1: a thousand years later in another region. You know, it's 286 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 1: uh the Maya ball game is kind of like wish 287 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 1: you would say that. You know, with baseball cricket, you 288 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:18,919 Speaker 1: know that it varied and transformed into different things. But 289 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 1: this kind of ball court is not like that. It's 290 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 1: not sort of a sacred religious thing. It's a big, giant, 291 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:29,879 Speaker 1: open ball court with eating vessels and broken you know, 292 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:34,360 Speaker 1: probably corn beer vessels all around it, like some modern stadium. 293 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 1: And you don't find that anywhere in the Maya, you know, 294 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 1: lowland civilization. And so where does it come from? It? 295 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 1: Where do you find it in the area up in 296 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: the highlands where the jade comes from, where the jade 297 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 1: sources is. So they're you know, they're cultivating these relationships 298 00:18:52,240 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 1: by creating religious similarities. It's it's actually marketing. So, if 299 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:23,440 Speaker 1: I understand it correctly, in moving away from the mind 300 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,640 Speaker 1: civilization or in trying to build new relationships with new 301 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:33,439 Speaker 1: trading partners, this particular city starts introducing new elements of 302 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:40,080 Speaker 1: different societies, and eventually that starts undermining its own previous 303 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 1: rituals and legitimacy of its authorities. Is that, right, there's 304 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 1: just a gigantic boom and then there is a bust, 305 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 1: I mean a one day destruction, and the analysis of 306 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:56,640 Speaker 1: the spearheads and so on from that show that it 307 00:19:56,760 --> 00:20:00,239 Speaker 1: was their trading partners they went too far. And this 308 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 1: is a real This is something that when we're responding 309 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 1: to all the crises today, I hear a lot of 310 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 1: you know, people saying the right things we should do, 311 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 1: except they're not going to succeed because you you really, 312 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 1: you know, you have to change economic cultures and so 313 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:22,120 Speaker 1: all this construction of these different ideological systems, and it 314 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 1: was too much, it was too fast, and it led 315 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 1: to this boom. But you know, in the end, there's 316 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:32,199 Speaker 1: a kind of lack of sincerity perhaps in this the 317 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: local regional, subregional population may not have been happy with 318 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 1: all of these other practices, and it was it just 319 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 1: really was a sudden It was like a bankruptcy, but 320 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,919 Speaker 1: with the ritual sacrifice. They sacrifice the king and the 321 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: queen and all of the nobles. Though some bankruptcies can 322 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: be like that. Yes, so if you know, businesses want 323 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 1: to hear from you, and uh, you know, I know 324 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 1: you're skeptical of all of them, and you know they're 325 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,400 Speaker 1: all going to fail. Nonetheless, they want to I don't 326 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 1: think that you know, people think that. I mean, it's 327 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 1: just I'm like a coroner. I mean, this is my job, 328 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 1: you know what I mean. But along the way they 329 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,480 Speaker 1: are positive. Okay, well what is it? What is the 330 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:20,399 Speaker 1: lesson in terms of balancing risk and reward. The city 331 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,440 Speaker 1: is changing its economic model, it's opening up to new 332 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,440 Speaker 1: trading partners, but it didn't work. So what kind of 333 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:31,119 Speaker 1: management or within an organization take away from that to 334 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 1: make a better informed decisions about new strategic ventures. Well, 335 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 1: I should defend con Quinn by saying that they did 336 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 1: really well, and the others also they you know, they 337 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 1: went down more slowly, so but yeah, what you were. 338 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,200 Speaker 1: The first thing that I've discovered is people don't really 339 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 1: believe in collapse. So that's the first thing you have 340 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 1: to get that. And then the other is what I 341 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:56,120 Speaker 1: just said, that the right thing to do is not 342 00:21:56,280 --> 00:22:00,959 Speaker 1: necessarily going to be successful. But what is positive is 343 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 1: that some of these collapses didn't happen, and that is 344 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 1: as problems were developing. Uh, they anticipated it, as con 345 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 1: quin tried to do, and they did some other things. 346 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:17,440 Speaker 1: Those are high risk, but it's just like in business investment. 347 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 1: If you got that right, the other things it led 348 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 1: to success, and they didn't do it. This is the 349 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 1: problem to They didn't do it because oh they want 350 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,639 Speaker 1: to save the world and they want to save the 351 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: civilization or whatever. They did it for their own success. 352 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 1: And yet it can be the right thing to do. 353 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 1: And so that kind of thing which worked short term 354 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 1: in the case of conquent we see examples. I mean, 355 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 1: it's not as exciting to talk about non collapses, but 356 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 1: you know, we study. When I say we, there's a 357 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 1: there's maybe twenty people who have gradually joined collapse studies. 358 00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 1: I've been doing it, I think longer than anybody. But 359 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 1: it's not a field. If you anticipate those things, you 360 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 1: can make changes that lead to success. And that's sort 361 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 1: of what we're working on now. Because again I'm I really, 362 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 1: I've done this all my life. I want to see 363 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,440 Speaker 1: I don't want to give talks on campus or publishing 364 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 1: a journal nobody reads. The people that can make a 365 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:24,119 Speaker 1: difference are people in business and government who first and 366 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 1: foremost are interested in their own success. So let's stipulate 367 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:33,200 Speaker 1: that most entities will ultimately probably fail. Nonetheless, it sounds 368 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 1: like a key thing is this idea of taking the 369 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,360 Speaker 1: risk of collapse seriously, and you hear a lot from 370 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 1: business leaders like, oh, we're always paranoid, and there's like 371 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:47,200 Speaker 1: the sort of pride in being paranoid. Only the paranoid survive. 372 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 1: I think that's a famous book from a founder of Intel. Uh. Nonetheless, 373 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,399 Speaker 1: it sounds like what you're saying is that maybe people 374 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 1: give lip service to the risk of collapse, but they 375 00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,359 Speaker 1: don't really internalize it. So I mean, I would starved 376 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:05,480 Speaker 1: by asking what are the signs of internal organizational collapse 377 00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 1: that if you're a business leader, you're like, actually, we 378 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 1: should really take the fear of collapse seriously, so that 379 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 1: it goes beyond just being a motivational mantra, so to speak, Well, 380 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 1: I should say that the like, there's a lot more 381 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,520 Speaker 1: positive lessons. I was about to talk about non collapses, 382 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 1: but I mean a lot of it's very obvious right now. 383 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:27,840 Speaker 1: I think I may have talked to about this in 384 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:32,919 Speaker 1: the lectional, but hypercoherence is our biggest problem, bigger than 385 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 1: global warming um because it inhibits responses and that like 386 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 1: a lot of these you know, eventual causes of collapse 387 00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:45,280 Speaker 1: is a great thing. It's it's just it leads to success, 388 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:49,440 Speaker 1: but eventually it can go too far and lead to crises. 389 00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:55,399 Speaker 1: And right now, the degree of integration of corporate systems, 390 00:24:55,440 --> 00:25:01,560 Speaker 1: of overall economic systems, of medical systems, is military systems 391 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 1: worldwide is fantastic. It leads to greater profits, that helps this, 392 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:09,400 Speaker 1: that and the other. But it is also dangerous because 393 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 1: something that happens in one place radiates through the system. 394 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 1: And you see this every day. You just saw it. 395 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,119 Speaker 1: I mean that you know, hey, fifty years ago, who 396 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 1: would give a damn if some plant and Staudi Arabia 397 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: blew up or drones hit it. Now everything radiates through 398 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,880 Speaker 1: this system and that makes it very difficult to respond. 399 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 1: And we see it every day. Every I fly a lot. 400 00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:39,879 Speaker 1: Every time I fly, the system is down. Um. Once 401 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:43,199 Speaker 1: there was a storm in New England and we couldn't 402 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:47,040 Speaker 1: get from Hong Kong to Kuala Lampour because you know, 403 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 1: there weren't enough The planes were tied up somewhere. Uh. 404 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 1: And every time, you know, the system is down. Just 405 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,240 Speaker 1: here all the time, Arthur, I was going to ask, 406 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:57,920 Speaker 1: I mean a lot of people will look at global 407 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 1: integration or kype hypo coherent excuse me um as evidence 408 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 1: of progress. Right, this is how the world is supposed 409 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 1: to go. We're supposed to be heading towards more integration, 410 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:16,200 Speaker 1: more connections with other people. So how do you how 411 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 1: do you walk that back? Because once that gets set 412 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,200 Speaker 1: in motion, it feels like it becomes very, very difficult 413 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,480 Speaker 1: to make the argument that actually, maybe we need to 414 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:30,200 Speaker 1: reconsider some aspects of that. Well, that's that's the legitimation 415 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,879 Speaker 1: problem that that leads to, which I don't think is 416 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 1: taken seriously enough. I mean, what you just said not 417 00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,280 Speaker 1: not this thing and that thing, but the ideology that 418 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 1: is so hard to accept. And that's really what you 419 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 1: have to work at. But the secret of success is success. 420 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 1: So you look at some of these things where you 421 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 1: they are predictable, you make modifications, you invest in those. 422 00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 1: It's going to be middle term or long term. But 423 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,840 Speaker 1: you know, Warren Buffett says, that's you know, the way 424 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:06,160 Speaker 1: to do it, and and then you can see that 425 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 1: there are profits to be made in that at the 426 00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 1: same time or mitigation of losses, and at the same 427 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,680 Speaker 1: time it helps the system be less hyper coherent. I mean, 428 00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 1: I'm just the you know, guru type. I mean the 429 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 1: people who would I hesitate to talk about specific operationalizing things. 430 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:28,679 Speaker 1: But the transport system is really in trouble, and the 431 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 1: communication systems in trouble, and so a lot of people 432 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 1: have said things like eat local and all of that, um, 433 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:40,080 Speaker 1: But there is something to be said in restructuring things 434 00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 1: so that there's more regional autonomy. I want to go 435 00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:47,480 Speaker 1: back to a question that I sometimes wonder with businesses, 436 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 1: which is, you know, obviously sometimes business leaders management guru 437 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,360 Speaker 1: types they talk about they talk a lot about pivoting. 438 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:59,800 Speaker 1: Are they sensing an opportunity and rotating the business and 439 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,560 Speaker 1: way to take advantage of that? And it's the site 440 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:07,119 Speaker 1: historical examples of oh, maybe some tech company shifted to 441 00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,400 Speaker 1: the internet at just the right time or whatever it is. 442 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 1: But I'm curious, like, how much of when a when 443 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,600 Speaker 1: a you know, in your work and your archaeological work, 444 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 1: and you see a city, you see some network shift 445 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,320 Speaker 1: its focus, how much was it the result of some 446 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:27,119 Speaker 1: intentional choice to do something new versus a sort of 447 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:32,560 Speaker 1: sequence of maybe haphazard or accidental decisions that sort of 448 00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:36,080 Speaker 1: firmed formed in an emergent basis where no one really 449 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:39,920 Speaker 1: made the decision, but some sort of natural order progressed 450 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:43,640 Speaker 1: and took the organization into a new direction. We'll both 451 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 1: happened and both happened today. I mean this discussion about 452 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 1: you know that this has been noticed by people, and 453 00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 1: there are people doing it to some degree. But I 454 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,440 Speaker 1: think there's a tendency to look back on these divine 455 00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 1: kings and so on and not realized that they were smart. Uh, 456 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,240 Speaker 1: and they had. I mean in the case of khn Quinn, 457 00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 1: I think that he was the chief of marketing for 458 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,720 Speaker 1: I mean that this office building there are offices for 459 00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,600 Speaker 1: different nobles and they I think that most of this, 460 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,560 Speaker 1: in the case of khn Quine, it's surprised me. I 461 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,680 Speaker 1: think almost all of that was conscious. It happened too fast. 462 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 1: I mean, you don't like to say, oh, well, we're 463 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:25,760 Speaker 1: gonna build a ball court in this weirdass style that 464 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 1: just happens to be that of the where the jade 465 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 1: comes from, or we're going to start using our caves 466 00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,960 Speaker 1: for you know, hill and hill worship to a greater 467 00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:40,520 Speaker 1: degree than normal, and that just happens to be the 468 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:44,040 Speaker 1: form of religion, uh, in one of the places that's 469 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:48,520 Speaker 1: right on a major nexus of trade routes. It's clearly 470 00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:52,120 Speaker 1: conscious and you see that in and I mean I've 471 00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:54,400 Speaker 1: been working on this lay in about four cases, and 472 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,480 Speaker 1: they do different things, and each of the different things 473 00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 1: they do correspond to contemporary decisions in business strategy and 474 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 1: the fact that you know, I talked about collapses, so 475 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:11,440 Speaker 1: I'm talking about when that fails, but it usually succeeds. 476 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:17,000 Speaker 1: I mean, there was a maya near collapse around two fifty. 477 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 1: They had grown, it was a big boom, but they 478 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,960 Speaker 1: were using an agricultural system of this slash and burn agriculture. 479 00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 1: You cut down the jungle, you burn it. It makes 480 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,840 Speaker 1: ash that allows for production. They were doing too much 481 00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:33,720 Speaker 1: of it, and then they started to have a crisis, uh, 482 00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:37,240 Speaker 1: and some of the city's really declined, some almost ended, 483 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 1: others kind of continued. But during the subsequent years they 484 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,720 Speaker 1: shifted their agricultural system. They and that was a lot 485 00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 1: of that was probably decision making at the level of 486 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:55,880 Speaker 1: villages and communities, but they're also built giant reservoirs for 487 00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,120 Speaker 1: the rainy season and a lot of things that would 488 00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:03,160 Speaker 1: require labor. Had done that before, but they really intensified it. 489 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 1: And what happened then is that there was a recovery 490 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 1: and the giant boom, which we call the Late Classic period, 491 00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 1: you know, starting around six hundred or so, just this 492 00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,480 Speaker 1: incredible boom and industry and grow well their versions of it, 493 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 1: I mean jade workshops and all that, and you structures, 494 00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,280 Speaker 1: and it was a big boom. Uh. But you know 495 00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 1: a lot of the collapses I study. We've labeled them, 496 00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 1: that's me and my strategic management expert as appage collapses, 497 00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:37,000 Speaker 1: apag slash collapses where you can see this incredible progress 498 00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:41,080 Speaker 1: and identify a bunch of symptoms that indicate that it 499 00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 1: might totally collapse. And most people have this model of rome. 500 00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:49,120 Speaker 1: That's the big one. You know, there's going to be 501 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 1: these signs and decline, and but it can be very sudden, 502 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:58,040 Speaker 1: especially if a lot of the problems are inherent in 503 00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,680 Speaker 1: this tremendous prog sts and the things that are making 504 00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:05,440 Speaker 1: stuff successful, which makes it hard to change. But it 505 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:07,920 Speaker 1: also makes hard to change what you guys just talked 506 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,920 Speaker 1: about the legitimacy getting people to to buy into this 507 00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:17,760 Speaker 1: idea of making these changes that in the short term 508 00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:22,800 Speaker 1: might cause you know, less impressive constructions. And then the 509 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:27,280 Speaker 1: other thing, and this is true with my economic leaders 510 00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 1: and then anger and everywhere and with us, is that 511 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:33,840 Speaker 1: short term thinking is a problem. And again I'm not, 512 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 1: you know, the warrant about the lots of people. They 513 00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,920 Speaker 1: tell you that, but also that, um, you you get 514 00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 1: these feedback cycles. In crisis, leaders tend to do more 515 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,520 Speaker 1: of what they do and that's what a lot of 516 00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,360 Speaker 1: the you know, they do temples in war, and the 517 00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,560 Speaker 1: temples get the support of the gods. So they intensify 518 00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:56,840 Speaker 1: this and it looks like, I mean, my colleagues talk 519 00:32:56,920 --> 00:33:00,560 Speaker 1: about it, Wow, the Great Golden Age, But it was 520 00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 1: really a way of they knew what was coming, they 521 00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:08,320 Speaker 1: saw signs there were dietary problems, and they were intensifying 522 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,959 Speaker 1: what they do and it was counterproductive, so sort of 523 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,600 Speaker 1: spinning their wheels ever faster and getting in more trouble 524 00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:19,120 Speaker 1: that way. So just on the short term incentive part, 525 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 1: I mean, that feels like a real issue for societies 526 00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:27,080 Speaker 1: and civilizations and also for corporates in very similar ways. 527 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:31,520 Speaker 1: How how would you actually go about changing that thinking 528 00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:35,240 Speaker 1: because we can all identify that short termism is a problem, 529 00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:39,040 Speaker 1: but it feels very very hard to actually counteract that 530 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,440 Speaker 1: it is. And you know, when you get to be specific, 531 00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 1: I really believe in the collaboration. When I talk about 532 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:48,360 Speaker 1: these these digs of the big cities in this trade network. 533 00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:50,480 Speaker 1: I mean that's like forty people, and there's all these 534 00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,400 Speaker 1: different experts, and I really believe that the ideas we 535 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,160 Speaker 1: have I have to collaborate with, you know, people in 536 00:33:56,240 --> 00:34:00,040 Speaker 1: business and strategic management. But one of the big of 537 00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 1: thems today and it's it's the main problem with war 538 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:07,160 Speaker 1: is that that CEOs and so on are being judged 539 00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 1: really short term, and the changes for legitimation, the changes 540 00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 1: and investments. It can't like be oh, let's change everything, 541 00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 1: you know. I mean, it could be a part of 542 00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:24,239 Speaker 1: your investment in these future things. And then as some 543 00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,279 Speaker 1: of that starts to have success, you don't have to 544 00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,359 Speaker 1: force people to do it. Like I said, when they 545 00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:33,640 Speaker 1: avoided the collapse, uh, you know in the around two 546 00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:37,480 Speaker 1: fifty years three hundred and they had a big recession 547 00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,520 Speaker 1: you could say, and a recovery that I don't think 548 00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:42,880 Speaker 1: that was because they didn't have a concept of civil 549 00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,480 Speaker 1: They weren't trying to save the world. They were trying 550 00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,960 Speaker 1: to succeed in their own areas. And then some places 551 00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:52,600 Speaker 1: did and and started doing pretty well, and some farmers 552 00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:55,919 Speaker 1: and of course the others saw that and began to ship. 553 00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,760 Speaker 1: It was a small percentage that started doing that probably 554 00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,800 Speaker 1: in the beginning. So you know, as you know, nothing 555 00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:05,160 Speaker 1: succeeds like success. You don't have to just put all 556 00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:07,680 Speaker 1: your eggs in one path and do some cosmic change. 557 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:11,399 Speaker 1: Just as you said, that would really be hard. It does. 558 00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:15,640 Speaker 1: It does seem like in terms of the things that 559 00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:19,000 Speaker 1: have allowed these companies to grow at an extraordinary rate 560 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:23,400 Speaker 1: are currently the very things that threaten, you know, to 561 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:28,319 Speaker 1: be their undoing and so obviously liberal use of individual 562 00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:33,560 Speaker 1: data and is breaking norms regarding privacy has obviously allowed 563 00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,920 Speaker 1: a lot of these companies to grow, make incredible profits, 564 00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,600 Speaker 1: and grow extremely fast. Now those are the very things 565 00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:44,000 Speaker 1: that are causing people to freak out. What were some 566 00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:48,920 Speaker 1: examples of, as you said, some places they thrived for 567 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,800 Speaker 1: a while, they staved off near collapse by doing something different, 568 00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:57,200 Speaker 1: by sort of recognizing that the existing trajectory was unsustainable. 569 00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:03,759 Speaker 1: What were some pivots that the successful entities did to 570 00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:07,719 Speaker 1: hold off on collapse a little while longer. Rulers are 571 00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:12,120 Speaker 1: very conscious of and when I say rulers, they always 572 00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:14,960 Speaker 1: think it's the king that does this, because that's the 573 00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,560 Speaker 1: guy recorded. But we know from Konquin there's a lot 574 00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:22,360 Speaker 1: of other people and economic advisors and economic agents. But 575 00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,719 Speaker 1: if they you know, they can see what's going on 576 00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,840 Speaker 1: below and its effect on them. And so you know, 577 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,000 Speaker 1: decisions were made at the local level but also at 578 00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:37,560 Speaker 1: the higher level to respond. And uh, that's a very 579 00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:41,360 Speaker 1: specific decisions. You know, when they you dig its gigantic reservoir, 580 00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:45,640 Speaker 1: it takes an enormous amount of labor. It's a giant investment. 581 00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,600 Speaker 1: It's kind of a high risk investment. But you can 582 00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:52,560 Speaker 1: see there are water issues developing. So you go in 583 00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:57,400 Speaker 1: that direction, and the states that did that became very successful. 584 00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:01,759 Speaker 1: Now you just pinpoint it a real problem. And the 585 00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,560 Speaker 1: thing about these appage collapses where right at the peak 586 00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:08,960 Speaker 1: suddenly everything falls apart, those are the most dramatic ones. 587 00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:11,680 Speaker 1: Are not all like that. But one of the things 588 00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:15,000 Speaker 1: you just mentioned is what again, if this weren't confusing 589 00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:19,720 Speaker 1: enough to my colleagues, the strength slash weakness, The strength 590 00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:22,920 Speaker 1: of a civilization in that kind of collapse are the 591 00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:28,120 Speaker 1: very things that over time become weaknesses as the impact 592 00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:32,560 Speaker 1: of them develops more and more. And uh, those are 593 00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:35,680 Speaker 1: really hard to change because they look at it and 594 00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,040 Speaker 1: they say, as you just said, this is the key 595 00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,960 Speaker 1: to progress, This is the key to success. But again, 596 00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:44,320 Speaker 1: if some if some people start doing these other things 597 00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:47,520 Speaker 1: and they're successful at it, you won't have to you know, 598 00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:49,680 Speaker 1: you were mentioned. I mean there's lessons of collapse. It's 599 00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:53,399 Speaker 1: almost always finger shaking, you know, when you just go, oh, yes, 600 00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:55,600 Speaker 1: you guys, should you know you should stop doing that. 601 00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:57,879 Speaker 1: You should wear a hair shirt. It ain't gonna work. 602 00:37:58,080 --> 00:37:59,960 Speaker 1: And so that, you know, you have to be stick 603 00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:03,560 Speaker 1: accessible in some ways and then attract more people. But 604 00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:07,319 Speaker 1: it isn't going to be easy. Arthur. The last time 605 00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:09,759 Speaker 1: we had you on, we did we focused on this 606 00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:14,960 Speaker 1: idea of the collapse of civilizations and you were sort of, 607 00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:19,000 Speaker 1: I guess pessimistic about a lot of things. Um, what 608 00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,640 Speaker 1: do you think now? You know this is uh what 609 00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:26,000 Speaker 1: is it two or three years after the original podcast recording. 610 00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:29,120 Speaker 1: When you look at civilization or society, Now, what are 611 00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,400 Speaker 1: you seeing and how does it relate to your area 612 00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:35,640 Speaker 1: of expertise? Well, it's I'm doing this because you know, 613 00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:38,760 Speaker 1: I'm writing for these journals and being on this channel. 614 00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,080 Speaker 1: It doesn't help my career and academics. It's like, what 615 00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:45,960 Speaker 1: are you doing? These evil capitalists? But I think we 616 00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:49,000 Speaker 1: can I feel like we can make a difference because 617 00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,600 Speaker 1: people are listening to me. People are now and I 618 00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:54,040 Speaker 1: didn't really feel that. I felt it a little bit. 619 00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:59,320 Speaker 1: But the reaction has been quite interesting since that last show. 620 00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:02,920 Speaker 1: And um, and you know the Journal of of of 621 00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:08,800 Speaker 1: the Journal of Academy Management. We just submitted an article. 622 00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:12,240 Speaker 1: They had a doomsday issue. They have a special upcoming 623 00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:17,240 Speaker 1: doomsday issue, and it's like wow, and it's about negative 624 00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:21,880 Speaker 1: scenarios in grand schemes and how you know, how they 625 00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:24,200 Speaker 1: can ess. I'm curious to see what else comes in. 626 00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:26,839 Speaker 1: I think maybe we helped inspire that a little bit, 627 00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:30,200 Speaker 1: because of course those people listen to this show and 628 00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:33,000 Speaker 1: other things like it. But so I'm feeling a little 629 00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:36,000 Speaker 1: more optimistic. But you sound more optimistic than the last 630 00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:37,600 Speaker 1: time you were on the show. So maybe that's a 631 00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:40,399 Speaker 1: good place to end it on an optimistic note. For once, 632 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:45,359 Speaker 1: Arthur Demerist. It's always fascinating to talk to you. We'll 633 00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:49,200 Speaker 1: have you back on again in three years, maybe after 634 00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:52,960 Speaker 1: the next election. Uh you know, if we're still around 635 00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,319 Speaker 1: in three years, if civilization is still around, we can't 636 00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,960 Speaker 1: wait to uh have you back. Really appreciate your joining. 637 00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:18,400 Speaker 1: Thank you, Thank you guys. Uh So Joe I found 638 00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:21,360 Speaker 1: that conversation fascinating, as always with Arthur. But I have 639 00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:25,160 Speaker 1: to say I had no idea that archaeological academia hated 640 00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:29,719 Speaker 1: us so much. Yeah, I didn't either, I thought like that, 641 00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:32,600 Speaker 1: but I think there is I don't know much much 642 00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:35,840 Speaker 1: about it academia, but I do think, uh, I do 643 00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,200 Speaker 1: sometimes get the impression that they look down upon anyone 644 00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,920 Speaker 1: whose ideas are able to be digested by the public. 645 00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:46,919 Speaker 1: Let's put it for the record, we like archaeological academia. 646 00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:48,440 Speaker 1: Do you ever? You know what I was thinking about 647 00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,960 Speaker 1: that conversation. It's like you could really tell all that 648 00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,480 Speaker 1: stuff from like shards of pottery. Yeah, you know what 649 00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:57,120 Speaker 1: I'm saying, right, So, one thing I found really fascinating 650 00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:59,200 Speaker 1: was when he was talking about con Quin and the 651 00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:02,560 Speaker 1: development of this sort of big office building and how 652 00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:05,480 Speaker 1: you could see that the space allocated to royalty got 653 00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:11,319 Speaker 1: progressively smaller as their legitimacy changed or deteriorated. Yeah. And 654 00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:14,840 Speaker 1: I love this idea of the city sort of building 655 00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:17,919 Speaker 1: monument to their trading partners culture. And I think that's 656 00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:21,400 Speaker 1: that feels very modern as a phenomenon. Or you like, 657 00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,120 Speaker 1: go to Las Vegas and there's obviously all kinds of 658 00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:27,680 Speaker 1: things that are built, like specifically with Chinese tourists in mind, 659 00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:33,480 Speaker 1: things like that where trade is certainly becomes the conduit 660 00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,120 Speaker 1: for ideas, for better or worse. And in some cases 661 00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:39,359 Speaker 1: that's good, but in other cases you could see how 662 00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:41,160 Speaker 1: that could eventually become a problem, right, and you could 663 00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:44,840 Speaker 1: see how society would sort of eventually maybe revolt against 664 00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:47,120 Speaker 1: that idea or that change. But I think the most 665 00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:50,720 Speaker 1: disturbing aspect of these conversations that we end up having 666 00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:54,360 Speaker 1: with Arthur is the notion of societies or civilizations or 667 00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,480 Speaker 1: entities thinking that they're doing the right thing, but then 668 00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,480 Speaker 1: just going about it in the wrong way or getting 669 00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:03,759 Speaker 1: it wrong, and then causing their own collapse. Well, you 670 00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:05,319 Speaker 1: know what I was gonna say that I didn't find 671 00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:10,600 Speaker 1: to be disturbing, is this idea that to stave off collapse. 672 00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:14,440 Speaker 1: What's not needed for someone to say like, oh, we're collapsing, 673 00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:16,680 Speaker 1: we got to do something about this, per se, but 674 00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:20,319 Speaker 1: rather for a new success model to emerge, and so 675 00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:22,480 Speaker 1: that the way to stave off collapse is not just 676 00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:24,560 Speaker 1: to reverse what you're doing or to stop what you're doing, 677 00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:28,400 Speaker 1: but to take a take a totally different turn and 678 00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:33,520 Speaker 1: to show people that some other way of organizing society, 679 00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:36,680 Speaker 1: some other way of farming, some other way of creating 680 00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,879 Speaker 1: a product, whatever it is, can thrive. So it's kind 681 00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:44,239 Speaker 1: of a hopeful idea just that success could be contagious 682 00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:47,479 Speaker 1: and replicable once someone shows the way, right, you don't 683 00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:50,480 Speaker 1: have to convince people that this is necessarily the right 684 00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:52,880 Speaker 1: thing to do, because it just sort of unfolds and 685 00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:56,600 Speaker 1: becomes obvious in a way. All right, Well, on that 686 00:42:56,680 --> 00:43:00,120 Speaker 1: happy note again, this has been another edition of the 687 00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:02,920 Speaker 1: All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me 688 00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:06,040 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tracy Alloway, and I'm Joe wi Isn't Thal. 689 00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:09,000 Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart. And 690 00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:12,880 Speaker 1: you should follow our producer on Twitter, Laura Carlson. She's 691 00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,759 Speaker 1: at Laura M. Carlson. And check out all of the 692 00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:20,839 Speaker 1: Bloomberg podcasts on Twitter at the handle at podcasts. Thanks 693 00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:21,360 Speaker 1: for listening.