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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Shad Millman. It's Super Bowl five week. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna be joined by a professional better, Simon Hunter. It

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Speaker 1: is a strange super Bowl week. There's no media days,

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Speaker 1: there's no NonStop coverage in the way we're used to it,

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Speaker 1: no radio row as we know it. It's the Tuesday

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Speaker 1: before the super Bowl. And Simon, it is also just Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: like for you as a professional vetter, and we've got

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Speaker 1: a lot to get to and so give me your

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Speaker 1: answer and I will carry on. But like, does it

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Speaker 1: feel different for you this Tuesday than it normally does? Chad,

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Speaker 1: I'm so far man. This is like, uh, just a

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Speaker 1: week of drinking and betting. Man, It's the best week,

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Speaker 1: especially as a pro because it's like most professionals, this

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Speaker 1: is our end of the year party. We make big bets.

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Speaker 1: I'm literally going to Vegas two days after the super

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Speaker 1: Bowl to go meet up with a bunch of other guys,

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Speaker 1: and it's just it's just a fun week. In a

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Speaker 1: normal year, I would be a little more turned up

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Speaker 1: where the media and the just the hype surrounding it.

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Speaker 1: And if it's Tom Brady pet Mahomes. Yeah, I'm right

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Speaker 1: there with you. It would definitely be more pumped up.

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Speaker 1: But in my own life, no Man, NFL Network, Rolling seven,

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Speaker 1: I'm just never ending watching just football stuff this whole week.

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Speaker 1: So I'm just just like everyone else. I'm just soaking up.

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Speaker 1: This is it. This is the end of our season.

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Speaker 1: So it's just it's one last push of just getting

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Speaker 1: all the football and until it's over. It does feel

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Speaker 1: a little bit like finals, right, and like you know

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Speaker 1: you have that one final left. You've done all the work,

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Speaker 1: you've done, all the studying. All you have to do

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Speaker 1: is pick the right answers. And today, Simon my bff,

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Speaker 1: we are going to pick the exact right answers. And

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Speaker 1: believe it or not, I just thought of this little

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Speaker 1: transition right here while we were talking. Today we are

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Speaker 1: going to do an update on our game thoughts as

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Speaker 1: it relates to the line in the total, which we

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Speaker 1: did last week. Um, we are going to have a

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Speaker 1: very big conversation about props, and not just player props,

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Speaker 1: but primarily focusing on sort of a lot of the

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Speaker 1: game props. You know, they'll be literally four D five

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Speaker 1: hundred props that are available and through the years, the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl has become known for a lot of the

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Speaker 1: game props, long before player props were really popular, like

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Speaker 1: will there be an ot? Will there be a safety?

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Speaker 1: These are the kind of props that professional betters have

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Speaker 1: loved through the years. So we're going to get to that.

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Speaker 1: But first, first, a word from our very gracious and

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Speaker 1: incredible sponsor, all year long, Raft Kings. Okay, the Big

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Speaker 1: Game is being played this weekend and our friends at

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Speaker 1: Draft Kings are launching the fifty five million dollar Prediction Challenge.

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Speaker 1: That is right, fifty five million dollar Prediction Challenge. This

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Speaker 1: is a free to play fourth quarter prop pool with

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Speaker 1: a top prize of one million dollars. Everybody is eligible

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Speaker 1: to play. It's not like you have to be in

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Speaker 1: a legal betting state to play this game. Anywhere. Anybody

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Speaker 1: listening to this podcast from anywhere can enter to play

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Speaker 1: this um. There are a lot of free instant prizes

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Speaker 1: to They range anywhere from like three dollars in Draft

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Speaker 1: King dollars to two dollars in cash. Every entry in

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Speaker 1: the pool will also trigger a free random reward without

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Speaker 1: the fifty million dollars in total prizes being handed out.

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Speaker 1: Fifty five million fifty five is the number of the

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Speaker 1: big game. Check out Draft Kings to participate in the

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Speaker 1: free to play Prediction challenge for your shot at the

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Speaker 1: top prize of one million dollars. Simon. We already beat

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Speaker 1: like seven dred and seventy six people for a little

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Speaker 1: d K competition too, took Draft Kings from more than

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Speaker 1: four grand. How much can we win in this thing?

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Speaker 1: We might win a million dollars. That's that's crazy. They

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Speaker 1: I mean, I know a lot of sports books do promotions,

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Speaker 1: but shout the Draft Kings there. Their promotions aren't crazy,

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Speaker 1: are crazy? Like this is insane. The fact they're given

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Speaker 1: away that much because it's it is blind luck what

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Speaker 1: we're talking about here, So why wouldn't you sign up

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Speaker 1: and just do it? It's it's a free lottery ticket.

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Speaker 1: Twent a million dollars. So I love that they're doing

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Speaker 1: this free lottery ticket, win a million dollars fifty five

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Speaker 1: million in cash prizes Draft Kings check it out, Uh listen.

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Speaker 1: A reminder also, we went winless two weeks ago, and

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Speaker 1: because there were no games this past week, we rolled

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Speaker 1: our phrase that pays cash prizing together, which means the

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Speaker 1: winner of this past week of our phrase the pays

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Speaker 1: the person who followed the Favorites Pod and then tagged

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Speaker 1: us with the phrase. Simon says, we care one five dollars.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna match that amount donated to their favorite charity.

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Speaker 1: The Action Network is going to do that. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: announce that winner at the end of the show. This week,

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Speaker 1: we're doing something even more special. We're not giving away

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Speaker 1: fifty five million dollars in prizes, but we are upping

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Speaker 1: the prize Matt Mitchell doesn't even know this yet to

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Speaker 1: five fifty dollars for super Bowl fifty five. The winner

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Speaker 1: gets a hundred and ten dollars for every prop Simon

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Speaker 1: and I get right from our five that we love

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Speaker 1: uh at the super Bowl. To be eligible, go to

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Speaker 1: at the Favorites Pod. Follow at the Favorites Pod, tag

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Speaker 1: us using the phrase Simon says, bet the Big Game.

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell will sift through these submissions. You will win

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Speaker 1: the money, um and then we'll announce it after the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl on the podcast. One more reminder, everything we discussed,

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Speaker 1: every pick we make, It's all available in the free

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Speaker 1: Action Network app. It's award winning, Go download it. We

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Speaker 1: got a big balls bet. We got a hornet's nest,

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Speaker 1: which is really unattractive. We got a foxhole. We also

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Speaker 1: got your questions coming up at the end of the podcast.

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Speaker 1: You sent in a bunch of questions. It's a lot

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Speaker 1: of housekeeping, Simon, how do you want to start this thing?

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Speaker 1: But you and I talked yesterday and we talked about

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Speaker 1: sort of doing you know, the props that you love

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Speaker 1: that aren't necessarily player props. Like I said, let's get

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Speaker 1: it going. Just give me, give me one that you love,

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Speaker 1: and let's talk about it. And this is all new

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Speaker 1: to me, so I can't even I'm just reacting to it.

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Speaker 1: And we can break down first what we talked about

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Speaker 1: last week. I'll the overall game with the spread and

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Speaker 1: the total. Um we've seen the sharps come in. The

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Speaker 1: sharps have made a decision. The line open three and

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Speaker 1: a half. It's been sitting at three all week. Opened

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Speaker 1: at fifty seven and a half or fifty seven. The

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Speaker 1: total it's down the fifty six, so no one's really shocked.

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Speaker 1: The professionals like the dog and they like the under.

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Speaker 1: And little did I know, um O, our little conversation

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Speaker 1: here was gonna set Twitter to a fire. But man,

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Speaker 1: people are upset. Chat. Imagine Simon, people are coming after

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Speaker 1: you and they're coming after me. Chat. Chad just getting

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Speaker 1: dragged into this. Brad, dude, I'm just a guy hosted

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Speaker 1: the podcast. Yeah, I'm sorry. I said this spread was

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Speaker 1: that it was fun. I had people breaking down the

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Speaker 1: value of the number of minus three to sports books

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Speaker 1: that there's a twelve and a half percent chance that

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Speaker 1: it lands in between the number minus three and zero,

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Speaker 1: and I was just like, Wow, this is just incredible

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Speaker 1: information just being poured onto me where I didn't know

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Speaker 1: how that held any kind of weight. When what was

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Speaker 1: last year's Super Bowl? I think it was minus one

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Speaker 1: or minus one and a half. I don't how the

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Speaker 1: book built this trend into that number. The Eagle Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl I think that was six and a half and

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Speaker 1: closed the four and a half. Again, I don't know

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Speaker 1: how this trend was built into the Troop Bowl. So

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Speaker 1: people are coming back at the things that had nothing

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Speaker 1: to do what I was talking about. Pretty much, what

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Speaker 1: I was trying to tell people is hop on your

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Speaker 1: phone right now, go to Google, look up super Bowl histories,

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Speaker 1: and you can just see that more often than not

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Speaker 1: if you take these adjusted lines, or you just take

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Speaker 1: the spread instead of just taking the Chief's money line

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Speaker 1: or just taking the plus three with the Buccaneers, You're

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Speaker 1: you're losing value. And that's all I was just trying

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Speaker 1: to tell people is that the books want you to

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Speaker 1: do these really safe bets in the Super Bowl because

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Speaker 1: long term, you're eating up your own big and you're

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Speaker 1: eating away at your own profits. Even this this year,

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Speaker 1: this this bet doesn't hit, if it does next year,

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Speaker 1: you just factor in the math of the percentage of

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Speaker 1: money you saved on not eating that juice. So that's

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Speaker 1: all I was trying to say to people. I wasn't

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Speaker 1: acting like I have all the answers here, but man,

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Speaker 1: did people get upset. So that was weird um and

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Speaker 1: also cool that like so many people like really value

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Speaker 1: and care about what we say and got that upset

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Speaker 1: that I don't know, it's just different styles, like I'm

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Speaker 1: a high risk better like I don't bet one unit

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Speaker 1: at a time and hope for a five return on

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Speaker 1: a five percent return on year, like I take big

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Speaker 1: swings and I do things very unconventional, And if there

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Speaker 1: was one right answer, I think we'd all bet the

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Speaker 1: exact same way that these guys all claim to know

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Speaker 1: how to bet and we'd all be millionaires. So clearly

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Speaker 1: whatever style they do, it doesn't work because the books

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Speaker 1: keep winning. So I come I come at it from

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Speaker 1: a different angle, and that upset them. So it was weird.

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Speaker 1: But I'm here for it, man. I got nowhere to go,

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Speaker 1: I got nothing to do. I'm stuck inside. There was

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Speaker 1: a blizzard in north the Northeast, so it was a

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Speaker 1: good weekend for me because I was just having fun

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Speaker 1: with it. But back to the spread out, I still

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Speaker 1: hold on, hold on, hold on, because there's something really interesting.

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Speaker 1: A couple of things to unpack here. Number One for

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Speaker 1: those who don't know and who don't live in sort

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Speaker 1: of the Twitter universe, because it's easy to forget that

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Speaker 1: the majority of the country is not on Twitter. The

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Speaker 1: majority of the country does not spend an inordinate amount

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Speaker 1: of time responding to Twitter. So what we're talking about

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Speaker 1: here is Simon came on the show last week and said,

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Speaker 1: you're better off if you like Tampa Bay in this game.

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Speaker 1: You're better off betting on Tampa Bay in the money line,

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Speaker 1: because what happens is the dogs they don't tend to cover.

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Speaker 1: They just tend to win outright in this scenario. And

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Speaker 1: by the way, the same can be said like for

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Speaker 1: Kansas City, Like if you want to bet, bet on

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Speaker 1: the money line, because the spread oftentimes doesn't come into play.

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Speaker 1: I think it applies more to Tampa Bay than it

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Speaker 1: does to Kansas City. Simon correct me if I'm wrong.

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Speaker 1: I was saying that with Kansas City, you just take

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Speaker 1: the minus three because what I was just trying to

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Speaker 1: bring people to save, you're saving the juice, and that's

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Speaker 1: all I was just simply stating is long term, you're

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Speaker 1: saving money on the big and like that. I don't

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Speaker 1: why I got them so upset. I think they're they

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Speaker 1: just overlooked that simple part of the math, right, but

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Speaker 1: a lot so the point is that like people came

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Speaker 1: after you on Twitter, and that is what happens on Twitter,

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Speaker 1: especially like in certain in certain segments of Twitter, there

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Speaker 1: are a lot of people who just think like they

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Speaker 1: are the gambling sort of arbiters of of good habits

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Speaker 1: in the gambling space, and they like to tell everybody

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Speaker 1: else what to do and how they should bet, and

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Speaker 1: where the ev is and sort of all the value

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Speaker 1: in that space. The truth is and the point of

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Speaker 1: this podcast is like, there are a lot of different

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Speaker 1: ways to make bets on games, and Simon is a

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Speaker 1: high risk gambler, like he will play with his bank

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Speaker 1: roll differently. And the way you gamble oftentimes is you

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Speaker 1: try to find what works for you and what makes

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Speaker 1: you comfortable, and then you play at the money amounts

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Speaker 1: that make you comfortable as well. Not supposed to be

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Speaker 1: following everything, Simon says. Simon says at his level of money,

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Speaker 1: because he's been doing this for a long time and

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Speaker 1: he gambles at high risk. He's giving you his perception

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Speaker 1: based on sort of habits and history and practice. Um.

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Speaker 1: And yet if you say something that a lot of

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Speaker 1: people disagree with on Twitter, they're going to come after you.

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Speaker 1: And that's what happened this weekend. And then they came

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Speaker 1: after me. Yeah, that was a nice guy sitting in

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Speaker 1: my room, you know, recording a podcast. But that's what

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Speaker 1: I joke all the time with a buddy that in life.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's messed up to say, but some of

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Speaker 1: the greatest things in human history it comes from conflict.

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Speaker 1: There's conflict in life and great things arise from it.

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Speaker 1: So if I get conflict with these guys and people

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Speaker 1: either learned from it takes something from it, see both

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Speaker 1: sides of the argument. That's all I can ask for, because,

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Speaker 1: like you just said, I don't have all the answers.

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Speaker 1: I have a very unique style that works for me

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Speaker 1: and it works for a lot of other people. If

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Speaker 1: that obviously works for a lot of people, it works.

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Speaker 1: And that's just all I'm trying to help people learn

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Speaker 1: with is that you don't just take the number, you

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Speaker 1: take the moneyline. These are little things I like to

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Speaker 1: pass along. So, yeah, it was definitely a fun weekend.

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Speaker 1: But we don't have to worry about that too much.

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Speaker 1: We can move on to the game at hand, my friend,

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Speaker 1: all right, so let's look as it stands. The game

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Speaker 1: is at you know, minus Kansas City minus three, the

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Speaker 1: totals at fifty six and a half. I think you said, um,

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Speaker 1: the wise guys have come in. Has anything in your logic,

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Speaker 1: reasoning deduction changed in the past week? What will your

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Speaker 1: plan be? Your your your plan? On just sort of

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Speaker 1: the side and the total still still on, the bucks

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Speaker 1: still on the over still tease the bucks still tease

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Speaker 1: it with the over. Uh, I understand where they're coming

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Speaker 1: back with the underplay because in history totals this time

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, it leans to the younger. I think

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Speaker 1: it's the look because I did look right for the show,

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Speaker 1: but it might have been eight and three or something

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Speaker 1: like that, where if it's above fifty it goes under.

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Speaker 1: And I just think with these two offenses we will

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Speaker 1: talk about when we get into the props here and

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Speaker 1: like I like, uh, slow start, but we just know

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Speaker 1: it anytime these offenses can score and they go deep

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Speaker 1: and their offense is very spread out. So I still

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Speaker 1: feel going against my my brother in the sharps here.

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Speaker 1: Even though I love unders, I have to take this

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Speaker 1: over here. I just love these offenses so still in

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Speaker 1: the over as well. I am stunned, like you are,

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Speaker 1: so going against every single trend, every single trend, and

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Speaker 1: I do want to get into it. Here's a stat

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Speaker 1: uh that somebody sent in. Hold on, let me see

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Speaker 1: if I can find it here. Um. Shoot, it's gonna

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Speaker 1: take me a second as I scroll through Twitter, but

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Speaker 1: basically list or here we go. Uh. This is from

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Speaker 1: uh degeneracy and me Tom Brady, tom Brady's first score

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Speaker 1: in the last nine Super Bowls. So I haven't checked this,

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Speaker 1: so I'm I'm, you know, relying on a guy who

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Speaker 1: goes back to generacy and UH Rams led three nothing.

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Speaker 1: Panthers UH tied zero zero. UM Giants led three nothing,

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Speaker 1: Giants led three nothing, Eagles lead what was at nine three?

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Speaker 1: UM Kansas City starts slow. The over under for the

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Speaker 1: first quarter is ten. Is the under an absolute lock?

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Speaker 1: You said you want to talk about the start slow,

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Speaker 1: then go over. Let's talk about it. Uh, No such

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Speaker 1: thing as a lock. But yeah, it's it's the play.

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Speaker 1: I know that you can throw those numbers out a

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Speaker 1: little bit because you're you're saying yourself, it's those are

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Speaker 1: new England numbers. YadA, YadA, YadA. But I talked about

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Speaker 1: it last week that this has been true of Brady

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Speaker 1: his entire career. In the Super Bowl. He just always

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Speaker 1: starts slow. And that's what I'm trying to get home

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Speaker 1: about the unique uniqueness of this game is this is

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Speaker 1: the biggest game in America. We remember some of these players,

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Speaker 1: and these players for the rest of our lives. You

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Speaker 1: remember a guy named David Tyree who did nothing with

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Speaker 1: his entire career, but he had one of the most

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Speaker 1: insane catches ever. Can you tell me the most important

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Speaker 1: player from the Tampa Bay Light means Stanley Cup last

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Speaker 1: last couple of months. Like, I can't tell you a

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Speaker 1: huge life changing play from the Stanley Cup. And I'm

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Speaker 1: an average fan of hockey, so it's one of those.

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Speaker 1: I don't think people understand the pressure and the high

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Speaker 1: variants of the super Bowl, that it is so unique.

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Speaker 1: And I know people are upset about the sample size

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Speaker 1: of the super Bowl. It fifty four years and fifty

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Speaker 1: four games is too small of a sample. I don't

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Speaker 1: know that that feels like a decent size sample for

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Speaker 1: such a unique game. So if that's all I had

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Speaker 1: to golf of, that's what I based a lot of

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Speaker 1: my trends off of. So with this one, I'm with you.

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Speaker 1: I man, just just looking at this game on paper,

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Speaker 1: it's it well like what we get it right now

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Speaker 1: the props, but I just love the first half to

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Speaker 1: be low scoring. I just think, like exactly everything that

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Speaker 1: guy just broke down. It just feels that that that's

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Speaker 1: a smart play over time with your money is to

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Speaker 1: take that under ten points in the first quarter. Flukes

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Speaker 1: might happen, we might get a busted tackle, Kirk returned.

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Speaker 1: Weird things, But if you're just playing the numbers and

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Speaker 1: the data exactly the under ten points in the first quarter,

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Speaker 1: that that's a good play. Um, all right, under ten

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Speaker 1: points in the first quarter. As I've mentioned before, Stucky

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Speaker 1: on the Action Network NFL podcast has talked about this

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Speaker 1: trend and if you if the sample size of the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowls and big enough expanded to Super Bowls and

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Speaker 1: conference championship games and it's still the right trend, there's

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Speaker 1: still an inordinate number of games that uh, that go

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Speaker 1: under ten in the first quarter. In fact, I think

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Speaker 1: it was like six seven eight games in that entire

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Speaker 1: sample set had gone over to over ten in the

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Speaker 1: first quarter. So really good data set there to pull from.

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Speaker 1: That's one first quarter under. But was that on your

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Speaker 1: list of ones that we want to talk about? It

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Speaker 1: can be I wrote down a ton. I have so

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Speaker 1: many here, but I highlighted my favorite ones for this show.

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Speaker 1: So give me your favorite ones. Let's do. Let's do

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Speaker 1: your five favorite ones, okay, and I will decide if

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Speaker 1: I agree with you. So my number one my favorite play.

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Speaker 1: And I'm talking to other sharp groups and we all

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Speaker 1: talk last week and before the props come out, just

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Speaker 1: trying to gauge where these other guys are gonna put

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Speaker 1: their money so that I can get the best of

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Speaker 1: the number. If I don't love it, I want to

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Speaker 1: at least get the best number for that because I

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Speaker 1: know they're gonna come in heavy on that side. So

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Speaker 1: this group who I love, and man, they're good. They

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Speaker 1: I mean, they're gonna kind of group that they might

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Speaker 1: only do ten props, like big money for this whole thing.

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Speaker 1: Well suckers like me are doing five props because I

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Speaker 1: just love the action. So their favorite one, which I'm

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Speaker 1: right there with them, is total field goals over one

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Speaker 1: and a half in the first half. It's minus juice.

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Speaker 1: I love the play. I love that they they're they're

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Speaker 1: pretty much bank on these guys having drives and then

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Speaker 1: just getting tight in the red zone in the first half.

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Speaker 1: So for my first play, my favorite one, I really

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Speaker 1: do like that that played by them. But the over

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Speaker 1: one and a half first half field goals. Now, will

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Speaker 1: you say getting type by the way, when when you

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Speaker 1: tell me you're getting together with a bunch of sharps

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Speaker 1: and you're playing these things and you want to get

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Speaker 1: it before the line moves, you know what I think

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Speaker 1: about game stop a MC silver like you guys are you.

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Speaker 1: You guys are the are the hedge funds, And I

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Speaker 1: gotta get the people. I gotta get the people on

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Speaker 1: Reddit to come in and start putting the short squeeze

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Speaker 1: on you and your hedge fund props. The way you

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Speaker 1: guys are coming at these things, that's what I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: one of the AMC suckers. I got it at like

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Speaker 1: four dollars and I should have sold it at twenty,

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Speaker 1: but I was just like, if fixes get to a twenty,

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Speaker 1: my whole life will be spent in Hawaii. I don't

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Speaker 1: need to uh keep betting anymore. But unfore it's only

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Speaker 1: we all know what happened in the hedge funds stepped

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Speaker 1: in so right now and I think they're like, it's

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Speaker 1: like seven dollars now, AMC. So I'm still at a

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00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 1: profit from the four dollar four dollar by but yeah,

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Speaker 1: that was ugly. But so you guys are betting on

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Speaker 1: teams getting tight is there? Now? This just feels like

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Speaker 1: you're sort of you're going with what some other guys

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Speaker 1: that you love are telling you. That's all the numbers

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00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,199
Speaker 1: that back it. Where it's like that, it's it's just

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Speaker 1: the highest percentage of field goals happened in the first half.

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Speaker 1: Like in the history of the Super Bowl, it's really

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Speaker 1: lopsided leaning towards the first half. So you can go

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Speaker 1: through it um especially when you look at these two

385
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Speaker 1: offenses on paper, they're just a high powered offenses where

386
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Speaker 1: they can pick up four yards at any time. But

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Speaker 1: we've seen it this year, especially with the Chiefs. They're

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Speaker 1: one of the lowest scoring teams in the red zone

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Speaker 1: for touchdowns, so it seems like they get touchdowns on

390
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,959
Speaker 1: big plays that go for a long play, or they

391
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Speaker 1: get down there and they get stuff in the kick

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Speaker 1: field goals. So again, I just there are no there

393
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Speaker 1: is numbers that back this up. But you can trust

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Speaker 1: when I tell you that this this is going to

395
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Speaker 1: be a smart play this week. Our foxhole, the really

396
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Speaker 1: unpopular bet. Let's climbe down into the foxhole. It's it's

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00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 1: gotta be over one and a half field goals in

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Speaker 1: the first half because you think it's going popular. All right,

399
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,359
Speaker 1: I love it because it's unpopular. Okay, we got a

400
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 1: bunch more, don't you worry. I'm making a lot of

401
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,920
Speaker 1: notes here. The next one will be either team two

402
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Speaker 1: point conversion, yes plus two thirty uh and again. These

403
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 1: all these lines are from our friends at Draft Kings

404
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 1: UM just a great value on a number that we

405
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:49,479
Speaker 1: both know. These teams, their head coaches love to go

406
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 1: for two. Bruce loves to go for two. Andy Reid

407
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 1: loves go for two. And with two risky coaches in

408
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 1: a game that is all about taking high risk plays

409
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 1: to try to win a winner's take all game, I

410
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 1: just love the fact that if any team gets down

411
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 1: by a weird number, we're pretty much guaranteed to get

412
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Speaker 1: a two point play attempt at any point in this game.

413
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Speaker 1: So if you're if you're if you're willing to bet

414
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 1: these weird props I'm giving out today. This is one

415
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Speaker 1: of these higher ones up there. I love either team

416
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Speaker 1: to score two points. I love this one. I feel

417
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,119
Speaker 1: like this one is definitely going to make our list.

418
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Speaker 1: I like it because of the because of the number,

419
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 1: Like I feel more comfortable betting on something that I

420
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 1: feel great about it plus two thirty than something that

421
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 1: needs to have so many things to happen at min.

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00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,399
Speaker 1: You know what I mean. I'm not wrong, You're not wrong.

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Speaker 1: I mean, well, when we go through these, I have

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Speaker 1: a lot like of just big plus value because that's

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Speaker 1: what I try to do with these props, and I'm

426
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Speaker 1: just I'm hoping for that fluke year where if a

427
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,400
Speaker 1: lot of these plus numbers come through, you're good now

428
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 1: for the next year or two on these Super Bowl props.

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Speaker 1: And that's how you can just keep adding up the

430
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:04,360
Speaker 1: money from these props. The hornets Nest, this is an

431
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 1: unattractive bet that we don't think people will want to

432
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 1: join us on. I'm walking to a fucking hornets nest,

433
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 1: all right, I'll be my companion on two point conversion

434
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:28,479
Speaker 1: plus two thirty definitely hornets Nest. The fact that this

435
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 1: is juiced up, so hi, So I'm cool with that

436
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 1: one being it? All right, what's your next one? So

437
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 1: sadly for Chad, he won't love it because it's minus

438
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 1: one fourteen. But longest TD plus ut five point five

439
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:45,119
Speaker 1: over yards minus one fourteen. I just think again, we

440
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 1: talked about these two offenses. They're they're very aggressive against

441
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 1: defenses that are pretty aggressive. I know the Chiefs do

442
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 1: like the runner covered two zone where they do drop

443
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 1: back to safeties a lot, but eventually Brady Brady's gonna

444
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,119
Speaker 1: get them. There's no one better in the history of

445
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: the NFL reading defenses. So we'll talk about him a

446
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 1: little bit later on. But Scotty Miller, he's the kind

447
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 1: of guy we saw last week where he's just one big, one,

448
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 1: big play kind of guy, and I could see him

449
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 1: getting behind this Chief's defense. The same goes with the

450
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 1: Buccaneers against Tyreek Hill. We saw Tyreek Hill have a

451
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 1: historical day the last time these teams played, and with

452
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 1: Sammy Watkins back, he can do the same kind of thing.

453
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 1: We can open things up for him and the other receivers.

454
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 1: So I do really like this play long longs TV

455
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 1: over and a half. This one is really interesting, and

456
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,479
Speaker 1: I do think to me there is a little bit

457
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 1: of a correlation of why I like this one and

458
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 1: don't like the field goal one, which is and we

459
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:47,400
Speaker 1: saw this with the Packers. Like the Bucks go long,

460
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 1: and they go long early, and they do not wait

461
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 1: for the warm up, They do not try to figure

462
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,359
Speaker 1: out what the defense is doing. They play their offensive game,

463
00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 1: and not just in the NFC Championship game, but in

464
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 1: the last say six weeks of the regular season and

465
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 1: into the playoffs. Except for that game against Washington where

466
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 1: they struggled, this team just lets it fly and it's

467
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 1: that's because that's what they have. Like they're not a

468
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 1: short route, you know, shallow, low cross team. They are

469
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 1: a run, a post, run deep, throw the ball up

470
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 1: and let's see what happens. I like this, and I

471
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 1: think that could happen quickly in the game, which might

472
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 1: make you more aggressive over the course of the first half.

473
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 1: So I don't like the field goal one for that,

474
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:43,119
Speaker 1: but I do love longest touched in over forty five

475
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 1: and a half also minus one four team, Like that's

476
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 1: decent juice. Like I don't mind paying that. And if

477
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 1: you guys heard me typing, that was me betting another

478
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,440
Speaker 1: thousand on this overfield goal one and a half. Thank

479
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 1: you chat. Oh my god, I just love it. Man,

480
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 1: you're the best. Do you agree with my lode and

481
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,360
Speaker 1: a half? Yeah? Like this is my Like I'm giving

482
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 1: my best underin now. So like, yeah, I love this play.

483
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,119
Speaker 1: You're you're not gonna hear an argument against that from me?

484
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 1: Well listen, now, I'm gonna have to troll you on

485
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 1: Twitter when under when when there's not over one and

486
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 1: a half field goals, I can't There's there's nothing gonna

487
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 1: be zero field goals in the first half, and this

488
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 1: game is gonna end on three. It's gonna be I hope,

489
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 1: I hope you get trolled all fucking day, Simon Hunter.

490
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: Uh yeah for the next one. It feels like a

491
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: trap because it honestly feels way too easy. I have

492
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 1: this graded out of five and a half and it's

493
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 1: total sacks over four and a half plus one ten.

494
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 1: Do not get this line at all. I think they're

495
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 1: basing this on Brady being so smart and getting the

496
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 1: ball out of his hands so quick and not taking sacks.

497
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 1: And the same goes from my homes that he's so

498
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,360
Speaker 1: smart he doesn't take hits. But when you break down

499
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 1: the numbers, no, QB holds the ball longer than my homes.

500
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 1: He's always looking to make big plays, and we already

501
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 1: know his left tackle and right tackle are out, so

502
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 1: right there, I had that graded out at three sacks

503
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 1: against him, and I have two and a half against Brady.

504
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 1: So I just think you're getting grade value here on

505
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 1: this number, and at plus one ten, I love that

506
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 1: You're you're getting plus money on it. So you have

507
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: a graded out at six sacks. You said you at

508
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 1: six sax, right, you have a three and a half

509
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 1: and two and a half. I'm sorry, I misspoke. So

510
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 1: I have three and a half and then one h one. No,

511
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,639
Speaker 1: have three and a half and two okay, five and

512
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 1: a half, five and a half yeah, yep, yes, I

513
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 1: have two point one for the Chiefs and I have

514
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 1: three point seven for so exactly it's leaned a little

515
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 1: over five and a half. So definitely, I love the

516
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 1: value on this line. You're getting a full sack of

517
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:53,159
Speaker 1: value on this and you're getting plus money on it

518
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 1: at plus one time. So when you grade this out,

519
00:27:56,520 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 1: like your your models are going that d that you

520
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 1: are grading out the total number of sacks in the

521
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 1: game every game, even in the regular season, Like that's

522
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 1: this is how you find edges in the in the games.

523
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 1: It's where you're you're trying to find what's the most

524
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 1: likely outcome, Like that's all. This is the medium. Like

525
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:19,440
Speaker 1: I I don't pretend to predict the future, but I'm

526
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 1: literally putting this state in and it's given me the

527
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 1: most likely outcome if they played this game over a

528
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 1: thousand times. So exactly, if they play this game a

529
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:30,360
Speaker 1: thousand times, this number is gonna come come through well

530
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,679
Speaker 1: over fifty percent of the time. That's that's just why

531
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:37,879
Speaker 1: I love this number. So five and a half and

532
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 1: is what you have a grade at at one more

533
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 1: question about this, Are you, like um, running a program

534
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 1: that tells you I got this at three and a half,

535
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 1: I got this at two and a half, Like for

536
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 1: the sacks, like how did how does that work? Are

537
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 1: you running a game simulation, running a game situation and

538
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 1: just plug it in all the numbers from the season,

539
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 1: Like you basically want to go through and you just

540
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 1: want to highlight when most important numbers to you, So

541
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 1: you know they do the combine, the three cone drill,

542
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 1: all these different things. These things are very important a

543
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 1: guy's first step and get off speed on a D

544
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 1: line even O line. These are very important numbers that

545
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 1: you have to look into when you're building a model.

546
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 1: So I pretty much use three sites mainly, and I

547
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: get their numbers and I get a meeting from that

548
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 1: and that's what I plug in my data from. So

549
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 1: it is one of those where it is a give

550
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 1: and take, like there's gonna be I mean, we can

551
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 1: talk about Pro Football Focus. That site has numbers on

552
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 1: every little single thing, and it can be overwhelming. Well,

553
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 1: you want to pull numbers from where things that you

554
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: think are most important to the game, because again, no

555
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 1: one has all the answers. We're all trying to figure

556
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 1: out the best thing and the best numbers to use

557
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 1: to win money. So when I'm looking at those things

558
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 1: I do, I'm I'm honestly obsessed with the line because

559
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 1: I just think it's such a porting and key thing

560
00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 1: to a game that just gets overlooked time and time

561
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 1: again in a game like this where I am seeing

562
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 1: a huge advantage on a D line versus offensive line,

563
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 1: like we don't even talk about the middle of the

564
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 1: Buccaneers with Sue and Vita. So I just love, love,

565
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 1: love the Buccaneers front line. So let's go big balls

566
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: better the week over four and a half sacks plus

567
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 1: one in Super Bowl. Love it. I can get behind that.

568
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 1: And if if you love that one with me, Shack

569
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 1: right now, he's over his point five sacks plus one

570
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 1: twenty love it. Learnarly, this guy all he needs is

571
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 1: to get a sack with another guy and you're at

572
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 1: a push for the rest of the game. So I

573
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 1: just think there's there's gonna be opportunity here for Shack

574
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 1: to get a sack on my home, especially. He loves

575
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 1: holding on the ball. He's gonna be trying to make

576
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 1: big plays. He's gonna get one on them. It's just

577
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 1: only a matter of time. So I think you're getting

578
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 1: great value right now and check over point five sacks. God,

579
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 1: that is so interesting. These are things, honestly like, I

580
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 1: never looked at it this way. All right, give me

581
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 1: a yeah. I told you I get super weird props

582
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: because I just bet so many of them and you

583
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 1: just look for the smallest amount of value and you

584
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: just try to capitalize on it. But for the next one,

585
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 1: I just talked about the big run stuffers up front

586
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 1: for the Buccaneers. Claude Edwards Hilaire is coming back for

587
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 1: his first game and well over a month right now,

588
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 1: they have his rushing and receiving prop over under forty

589
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 1: eight and a half. I don't think Andy Reid is

590
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 1: gonna trust the rookie in the biggest game of the

591
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 1: year to get a ton of touches. I think that

592
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 1: this has gonna be one of those games where they're

593
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 1: gonna try to run it. It's not gonna work out,

594
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 1: and eventually they're gonna bring in a running back to

595
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 1: get either block better than him or can catch better.

596
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 1: And we've seen it with Draw Williams. He's he's really good.

597
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 1: And we saw last year Damian Williams that that guy

598
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 1: was won the m v P of the Super Bowl.

599
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 1: So I do know that the Chiefs do want to

600
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 1: establish the run. That's a big thing for them. But

601
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 1: against this run defense, I just can't see that happen.

602
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 1: So I really like this this underprop for Claire's Hilaire

603
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 1: rushing receiving under forty and a half plus one oh five.

604
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 1: I hate this with all my being. You know why

605
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 1: because before the season began, before he was hurt, there

606
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 1: was all this talk about Clyde Edwards Hilaire and how

607
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 1: talented he was gonna be. And I remember Matthew Friedman

608
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: from the Action Network we do the show, convinced me

609
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 1: we're gonna do what convinced me for the Super Bowl

610
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 1: this upcoming Sunday, and I'd actually network HQ followed the

611
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: channel followed the handle to find out what Time talked

612
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 1: about Clyde Edwards Hilaire possibly being the best receiving back

613
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 1: in the league before the season even started. And then

614
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 1: he comes out in the first game and he is everywhere,

615
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 1: and he's doing great, and I feel like this is

616
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 1: a prime time Andy Reid weapon who hasn't been utilized

617
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 1: very much because he's been injured, and this is a

618
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 1: chance to get him back into the flow of the

619
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 1: game to take some of that pressure off of Patrick Mahomes.

620
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 1: That's I mean, that's that's fair. I was in on

621
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 1: on him to coming into the year because I just

622
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 1: thought you have the best receiving back in college coming

623
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 1: to an offense that is a high powered throwing offense.

624
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 1: But Levian bell move kind of throw a wrink into

625
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 1: that whole thing. But I'm fine with staying away from

626
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 1: that one. I got any other ones, my friend? Uh?

627
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 1: Did you also? While I was talking, bet another thousand

628
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 1: dollars on the under Clyde Edwards a layer rushing and

629
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: receiving four d and a half yards because you're so

630
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 1: convinced I'm cursed? Is that what you did? No, But

631
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 1: you're just so so confident in your hate of that

632
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 1: total over field goals that I just know it's a lock. Now.

633
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 1: It's just one of those There's no such thing as

634
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 1: a lock, you generous, There's no such thing as a lock.

635
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 1: That's true. Uh, So for the next one. We talked

636
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 1: last show about it. This is another one of my

637
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 1: favorite props to do. High high scoring half second minus

638
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 1: one one to all right now and DraftKings. So you

639
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 1: basically just go to Draft Kings, you go to the

640
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, you scroll over, you click on halves, you

641
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 1: scroll down, and they'll have it right there. What says

642
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 1: highest scoring half second or first. So if I love

643
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 1: the under in the f quarter of ten, if I

644
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 1: like the under of the first half, I have to

645
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 1: love the highest score and half being the second. So

646
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 1: this is a play I play every year and it's

647
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,839
Speaker 1: been good to me throughout the years. So I'm gonna

648
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:14,720
Speaker 1: keep on playing at high scoring half second minus one twelve.

649
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 1: Completely agree with this, Love this, even if I do

650
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 1: think there might be sort of some some weirdness in

651
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 1: the first half. Like these things, they go crazy in

652
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,720
Speaker 1: the second half these games. In the last ten minutes.

653
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: You could see thirty five points in the last ten minutes.

654
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:35,839
Speaker 1: Whatever happened in the first minutes of this game will

655
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 1: not be the same as what happens in the end.

656
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:39,839
Speaker 1: It happens every single year. It's amazing. It's what makes

657
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 1: you both great. No, especially with these two quarterbacks, so

658
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,839
Speaker 1: they're both just so stubborn and they do not care

659
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 1: they can be either of them can be down by

660
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 1: twenty five at half in this game, the second half,

661
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 1: they are not gonna stop swinging. So love it. Just

662
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:57,800
Speaker 1: love that both both these quarterbacks, their styles. It just

663
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 1: lines up perfect with this this prop this year. All right,

664
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 1: let's do two more because right now you've given me um,

665
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: You've given me four that I absolutely love out of

666
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 1: the I think six that we've talked about. So let's

667
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 1: see if we can get to five out of the

668
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,239
Speaker 1: next couple of months. Should we? Should we keep going

669
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 1: some big plus numbers? Yeah, plus numbers are better. I

670
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 1: know you're gonna hate this one, but I love it

671
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 1: because it is so funky and it's just fun to bet. Uh.

672
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 1: And it's another one where you only have to hit

673
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: it once every twenty years and you're gonna get your

674
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 1: return on investment. And that's any own alignement to score

675
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,800
Speaker 1: a touchdown plus two thousands. I love it. It's just

676
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 1: I I just see both these offenses doing something weird

677
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 1: down the end zone where Andy Reid he loves illusions,

678
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 1: guys moving in weird places and all of a sudden

679
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 1: offensive linem just pops wide open in the end zone

680
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:51,919
Speaker 1: and Sam gomees with Tom Brady we saw all those

681
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 1: years and was that Bruski I think it was, or

682
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 1: maybe it was Brable. They would always bring a defensive

683
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 1: guy to do these weird packages and square touchdowns. It

684
00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 1: was Yeah, So I could see them doing something similar

685
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 1: this year or their alignment. They have two different guys

686
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 1: that that have scored and have had catches this year

687
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 1: on their old line in the Buccaneers. So I like

688
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 1: this one. It's just a fun, weird proper you can

689
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 1: bet a hundred and one to cat and uh, it's

690
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,319
Speaker 1: any alignment to score a touchdown. I love this one.

691
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:23,799
Speaker 1: Uh it's good for like this is a good it's

692
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 1: stupid fun. It's stupid like every time they get close

693
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,280
Speaker 1: to the goal line, you're gonna hope for this offense

694
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 1: alignment if you don't over invest, you know, you just

695
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 1: have a little bit of fun because the pard is

696
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 1: so high and just enjoy so that that's what I

697
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,399
Speaker 1: love for fun. And then the next one that's just fun.

698
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 1: And it's been paying out good honestly for me, over

699
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 1: a couple of years of doing this and the super

700
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 1: Bowl is a field goal or extra point to hit

701
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 1: either across bar or the side, so all it has

702
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:53,480
Speaker 1: to do is just touch it. If it hits it

703
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 1: and goes in. Anything it hits and goes out, you

704
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 1: win at plus four hundred right now. So that's one

705
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 1: of these weird bets I like to make, just because again,

706
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 1: you only have to hit it once every four years

707
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:05,840
Speaker 1: and you're you're getting your money back. So it's a

708
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 1: fun bet and it's just likely to happen because we've

709
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 1: just seen it time and time again, the pressure in

710
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:14,280
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl and the fact that this game is outdoors.

711
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: I like it even more because we know the wind

712
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 1: who knows it can blow it right into the post war.

713
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 1: So it's a fun prop, and it's one of those

714
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 1: that you have to watch every time a kicker is

715
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:25,280
Speaker 1: lining up because you're just hoping it hits a crossbar.

716
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 1: So I like this one. But to me, it's too

717
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:31,359
Speaker 1: much like and for our fans, uh, it's too much

718
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 1: like the old Lineman prop. Like it's a little flukey, right,

719
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:40,840
Speaker 1: and it's so like, I need one more that I

720
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 1: love that isn't flukey that makes me feel like I'm

721
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 1: beating the market, and I'm smarter than everybody else, and

722
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:51,479
Speaker 1: I'm on the right side. And when I'm watching the game,

723
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 1: I can say to one of my kids, Hey, Daddy,

724
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:58,839
Speaker 1: bet your college fund on this because he got an idea. Well,

725
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:00,839
Speaker 1: I can guarantee you this problem gonna keep coming down

726
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 1: because it opened I think at plus uh and I

727
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 1: got a plus four fifty. So it has been it

728
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 1: has been dropping that one. But for another one that

729
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 1: I think it's just a smart, smart one where we

730
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 1: have two quarterbacks are willing to take high risk plays

731
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 1: for high high rewards. It's total receptions over one and

732
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,239
Speaker 1: a half at plus one thirty four. I just think

733
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:23,879
Speaker 1: we saw Brady last week. He doesn't care if he's

734
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 1: throwing punt picks. If he's taking a deep shot and

735
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 1: the guy that happens either pick it off for Mike

736
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 1: Evans can catch it, He's fine with that because it's

737
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:33,399
Speaker 1: a fifty yard bond down the field. So with both

738
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 1: these offenses, especially with my homes having these two offensive

739
00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 1: linement out, he's gonna be trying to make big plays

740
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 1: at all times to counteract that that big weakness right

741
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,760
Speaker 1: now on that team. So I see both these quarterbacks

742
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 1: taking a lot of risk in this game, and I

743
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 1: love that this one is that plus money, so over

744
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 1: one and a half interceptions plus one thirty four. What

745
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:57,479
Speaker 1: do you think this correlates to most in this game?

746
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:01,800
Speaker 1: Because I like it's interesting here is we do have

747
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 1: offenses that are incredibly potent, right, and you obviously are

748
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 1: on the over. Um turnovers tend to lead two points

749
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 1: being depressed because teams don't get to finish drives, they

750
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 1: don't get as many sort of possessions that put them

751
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 1: in a position to score, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Are you

752
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 1: if you if you take a bet like this, are

753
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:31,839
Speaker 1: you correlating it to playing the under or the over? Uh?

754
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 1: I would have to look into that. I don't know

755
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 1: if the math really works out that way where I

756
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 1: feel like if there's more turnovers gonna be there's gonna

757
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 1: be more points because they're more likely to have a

758
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 1: shorter field. So it could be right and it could

759
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: be Uh. If you're if you like the over and turnovers,

760
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 1: maybe does lean towards the under. But I don't really

761
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 1: correlate either. I just think high powered all offenses, high

762
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 1: chance all offenses, they're just gonna be going for it

763
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 1: the whole game. So I just like the over at

764
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 1: this problem, all right, I like it too. It feels

765
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 1: more like it feels more like a to me, it

766
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 1: feels more like a hunch prop than a data prop.

767
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 1: It's a it's a hunching scheme prop than a simulation prop. Yeah,

768
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say that the numbers like back this up

769
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 1: totally because interceptions are flukey place like We've seen it

770
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 1: time and time a game where a guy will have

771
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:24,239
Speaker 1: a ball right in his hands receiving it and I'll

772
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 1: hit his face mask and bounce to the defender who

773
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 1: picks it. So for sure, this is a very hard

774
00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:31,839
Speaker 1: thing to pin down because it is such a high

775
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 1: volatized just play. It's give me regardless of price. What

776
00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 1: is the one? Oh my god, this is the best

777
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 1: one that we haven't discussed, that we haven't discussed. Uh

778
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 1: my man, Scotty Miller receiving in yards over twenty point five.

779
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:55,879
Speaker 1: I just think we know that the Chiefs defense they're

780
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:57,920
Speaker 1: gonna eventually sleep on this guy because they're gonna be

781
00:40:57,920 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 1: paying attention to God. When they're gonna be paying attention

782
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 1: like Evans, They're gonna be paying attention to gronk or break,

783
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 1: and we've seen it with Scotty Miller. He's a big play,

784
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 1: boom er bus kind of guy. So all we're hoping

785
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 1: for here is just one yard catch from Scotty Miller

786
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 1: for a whole Super Bowl. I just think that's really

787
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 1: good value, especially minus one one twelve. So that's another one.

788
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:20,359
Speaker 1: I really love Scotty Miller over twenty and a half.

789
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 1: That one I like a lot. That one I can

790
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 1: get behind. It's something I can root for for the

791
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 1: entire game. I'll get excited when Scotty Miller comes out

792
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 1: of the field like this is one where I know

793
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 1: I got a shot. Yeah, especially with we still don't

794
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:36,239
Speaker 1: know yet with the deal is na Antonio Brown, But

795
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 1: at his age, it's sounding more and more unlikely that

796
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,359
Speaker 1: he's really gonna be full go, so I'm not too

797
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:44,839
Speaker 1: worried about him with taken away snaps from Scotty Miller.

798
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 1: All right, so right now, right now, the ones that

799
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 1: we love, uh Scotty Miller minus one twelve over twenty

800
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards. We like the higher scoring

801
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:58,280
Speaker 1: half to be the second half at minus one twelve.

802
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 1: We love of total sacks over four and a half

803
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: of plus one twenty. You have this grated out at

804
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:09,359
Speaker 1: five and a half. We love was that at plus one.

805
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 1: We love the longest touchdown to be over forty five

806
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 1: and a half yards at minus one fourteen. And we

807
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 1: want to marry a two point conversion plus two thirty

808
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 1: two others two others that we think are really interesting,

809
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:28,479
Speaker 1: that are just sort of fun. Are three others. Any

810
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 1: old lineman to score plus two thousand field goal or

811
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:35,439
Speaker 1: extra point to hit the cross bar crossbar plus four

812
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 1: hundred right now, and uh total, I n t s

813
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:41,439
Speaker 1: over one and a half at plus one thirty four.

814
00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 1: I can get behind all those, Simon Hunter, You on

815
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 1: your own and listeners can take from this what they

816
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 1: would like. You on your own. Love over one and

817
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:58,240
Speaker 1: a half field goals in the first half at minus

818
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:04,719
Speaker 1: love it, okay, I might put a little might put

819
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 1: a little bit, a little taste, a little taste on that.

820
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 1: Let me um, that's pretty good. That's a that's a

821
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 1: good round up you've given people. And it's a lot

822
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 1: of flavor right there for the game in addition to

823
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 1: being on the box, being on the over all that

824
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 1: good stuff. All right, let's see Chris from Maine, what

825
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: is your favorite super long shot prop that do you have?

826
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 1: We gone through it. I think we did, right. We

827
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:29,839
Speaker 1: think it's a lineman. Yeah, that's got to be at

828
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:33,440
Speaker 1: the plus two thousands. It's just up there. For like

829
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:36,560
Speaker 1: there's other ones I do, but there's such stupid long

830
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 1: shots that it's like nine worth giving out because they're

831
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 1: one of these that I'm hoping it hit once every

832
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:43,359
Speaker 1: thirty five years. So with this one once every twenty years.

833
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:46,359
Speaker 1: I like the any alignment to score. Here's a great one.

834
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:50,919
Speaker 1: And uh, this is from baby fucking Whale Okay who

835
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,719
Speaker 1: on Twitter but clearly did not hear about the contra

836
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 1: attempts from this past week, because his question is your love,

837
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 1: this is taking the points on the short underdog no

838
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 1: longer the smartest play. I've heard some claim that short

839
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 1: dogs have become far more likely to win out right

840
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 1: then losing cover. Should betting underdog money lines be the

841
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 1: rule at plus three or under? Is that crazy? Simon? Yeah,

842
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 1: I think he's talking about the plus two and a

843
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 1: half theory, where if if there's a plus two and

844
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 1: a half out there, you take the money line and

845
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 1: you take the plus two and a half and you

846
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 1: don't lay them. You don't lay the minus two and

847
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 1: a half like the that long term the books are

848
00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 1: trying to trap you thinking you're getting a good deal

849
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 1: taken under a field goal and a favorite where if

850
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:37,879
Speaker 1: you take the other side of the dog, that's where

851
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 1: the value is, which can't dispute it. If once again

852
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 1: we talked about plus numbers, if you're making a hund investment,

853
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 1: you're getting a hundred and ten back that adds up

854
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 1: over time when you're taking plus numbers. So I'm with this.

855
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 1: I'm with his theory, but I do I still think

856
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 1: the spread matters. That's what I don't want to be

857
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:56,040
Speaker 1: too harp about the spread being dead. I was mainly

858
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:59,719
Speaker 1: talking just for the Super Bowl, but we talked earlier

859
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:01,360
Speaker 1: in the year here we would do this show on

860
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 1: a Tuesday, and the line to move most of the

861
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 1: time by time we would post the show. I went

862
00:45:07,040 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 1: through our entire season. We only had two for the

863
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:14,279
Speaker 1: whole year, two games that actually mattered from Tuesday to

864
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 1: Sunday of the spread moving that if someone took the

865
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:19,320
Speaker 1: game we put out on Sunday, they either pushed her loss.

866
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 1: So I'm with the guy. I don't. I don't try

867
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:23,680
Speaker 1: not to overthink to spread too much, but I do

868
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 1: really care about key numbers, like during the regular season,

869
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 1: I care about getting seven and a half or three

870
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 1: and a half. I care about that kind of stuff.

871
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 1: Uh V ven it asks. Does Simon's model make any

872
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 1: account for emotional or motivational factors for underdog such as

873
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 1: revenge spots or media discourse, bulletin board material, etcetera. I

874
00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 1: look at trends for that kind of stuff. Um, I

875
00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:54,040
Speaker 1: can't really build a model. The only thing that I

876
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 1: had built in is just randomness. So I have like

877
00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:59,800
Speaker 1: a percentage put into it of just random things we

878
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 1: happened at any given football game. And the only time

879
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,359
Speaker 1: that fluctuates is when there's weather, because when there's bad weather,

880
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:09,800
Speaker 1: the odds of something random that happen goes up, and

881
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:14,360
Speaker 1: the data proves that out. That turnovers other other things

882
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 1: where we we just see that when you're looking at

883
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:20,880
Speaker 1: a football game, you have to of course tie in

884
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:23,800
Speaker 1: all that stuff, revenge games, everything like that. But unless

885
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 1: there's trends or numbers actually back it up in that

886
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 1: Pacific game, I don't base too much off of it.

887
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 1: All Right, this is the last question uh Todd from

888
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:35,280
Speaker 1: Sacramento when I saved this for the end, specifically because

889
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:40,479
Speaker 1: Super Bowl MVP is always a hot topic and it's

890
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:44,279
Speaker 1: become a conversational point. His question, with the way the

891
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 1: NFL has changed to a passing league, is it wiser

892
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:51,240
Speaker 1: to bet on who you believe will be the winning

893
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 1: quarterback for Super Bowl m v P versus simply betting

894
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 1: that team's money. Wine, I'm surprised there's not like an

895
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:01,879
Speaker 1: article out there that could help with this math because

896
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:03,000
Speaker 1: I don't know if the top of my head the

897
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:05,840
Speaker 1: answer to this, but I would say, just from what

898
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 1: I've read, is the biggest liability by far right now

899
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:12,320
Speaker 1: for all sports books is my homes. He's like, I

900
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 1: don't know if it was either he's over or seven

901
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 1: percent of the handle right now, but it's insane the

902
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 1: amount of money that is on my homes to be

903
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 1: the m v P. So I would say for this

904
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:24,960
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, I don't know. I guess you can do

905
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 1: Brady or just take one of these d n s,

906
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 1: but it's one of those where I would not be

907
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 1: putting money on my homes for m v P this year.

908
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:33,800
Speaker 1: I just think that it just points to kind of

909
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 1: being a trap at this point where so much money

910
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:39,000
Speaker 1: is loaded up on him and he's not at I mean,

911
00:47:39,080 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 1: last time I checked, he was minus. I don't get

912
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 1: why he's on mine two if they're having this so

913
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 1: much liability on them. So it's it's making me a

914
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:50,719
Speaker 1: little nervous right now the way the money slants it

915
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 1: towards my home's MVP. So I would stay away from

916
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 1: trying to make that play. Stay away, Stay away. Todd

917
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:02,520
Speaker 1: from Sacramento. All right, we got a game coming up

918
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 1: very very soon, and we are doing another phrase that

919
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:08,719
Speaker 1: pays contests. You're gonna have to listen to the first

920
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:11,839
Speaker 1: pod after the super Bowl to find out if you won.

921
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,840
Speaker 1: The winner earns a hundred and ten dollars for every

922
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:18,239
Speaker 1: win Simon and I have this week based on the

923
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 1: props that I have listed that we love. We will

924
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:25,320
Speaker 1: match that number up to five wins with a donation

925
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 1: to the winner's favorite charity. To be eligible, go follow

926
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:30,880
Speaker 1: at the Favorites pod and tag us and use the

927
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 1: phrase Simon says. Bet. The Big Game producer Matt Mitchell

928
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 1: will sift through the submissions and randomly choose it. You

929
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:44,360
Speaker 1: will win the money. The winner of last week's Rollover

930
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:49,400
Speaker 1: prize five hundred dollars for this person and their favorite causes.

931
00:48:49,960 --> 00:48:52,719
Speaker 1: I love this because instead of trying to make a joke,

932
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:56,840
Speaker 1: they tried to make trying to make an announcement, they

933
00:48:56,920 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 1: tried to create a movement. One and blind Dominic. Reach

934
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:05,759
Speaker 1: out to Matt doc Mitchell at Action network dot com

935
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 1: for your five prize. His comments tagging at the favorites pot,

936
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 1: Simon says, we care help the Juvenile Diabetes Foundation and

937
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:19,400
Speaker 1: the National Suicide Prevention Hotline. It's just nice, just a

938
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 1: nice thing to do, help help people. It's a terrible

939
00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 1: time going on right now, COVID, A lot of people struggling.

940
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:29,520
Speaker 1: It's nice to give back. That's all we're trying to do.

941
00:49:29,640 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 1: We all want to give back, all right, Simon, You

942
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:34,400
Speaker 1: and I will talk again as the week goes on.

943
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 1: We will announce what our final five favorites are going

944
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 1: to be from the list that we've discussed. I got

945
00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:41,880
Speaker 1: a pretty good idea what it won't be. That's all

946
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:43,279
Speaker 1: we got. You got one anything else you want to

947
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:47,839
Speaker 1: say to our fans before we DeCamp for Super Bowl? Uh? Yeah,

948
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 1: just to enjoy it. This is it. It's been a

949
00:49:50,000 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 1: long season. We have an incredible matchup. It's incredible we've

950
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 1: even gotten to this point. I'm just so excited. And

951
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:00,399
Speaker 1: whatever you do with this super Bowl, just remember we'll

952
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:02,360
Speaker 1: be back next year. Win or loose. Me and Cha

953
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 1: we back. So it's been a great year. Man, We're

954
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:09,080
Speaker 1: coming back. This has been the favorite from the Action Network.

955
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:11,360
Speaker 1: Guy am Chad Moelman. He is Simon Hunter. Download the

956
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 1: podcast from Apple, podcast, Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts.

957
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 1: I love you, Yeah,