Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Wednesday.
Speaker 2: I don't usually get to say that, it's great to
Speaker 2: see you again. Ryan, my friend. Everybody likes the fist bump.
Speaker 2: And we've got a resident Hall monitor here, Emily Joshinski.
Speaker 3: I'm actually taking over their show.
Speaker 2: So here there she is, Emily joining us live from
Speaker 2: the state of California. Got up early for all of us.
Speaker 2: Thank you all so much. Chrisl unfortunately not able to
Speaker 2: join as one of our kids is sick. But we're
Speaker 2: going to have a little bit of breaking reaction to
Speaker 2: all of the election results last night in the state
Speaker 2: of New Hampshire. I'm also going to stick around. We'll
Speaker 2: edit this, you know, so that it's perfectly in the show.
Speaker 2: We're going to talk about Barbie, did Greta Gerwig and
Speaker 2: Margot Robbie get snubbed or not?
Speaker 3: It's going to be a fun conversation about has thoughts. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I've got thought. I got a lot of thoughts. I've
Speaker 3: been bruden about this, so many thoughts.
Speaker 2: All right, all right, before we get to the fun,
Speaker 2: before we get to the fund, we got to eat
Speaker 2: your vegetables too. We're going to get to the election season,
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Speaker 2: Our crew worked overnight made sure that everything was available.
Speaker 2: Look at that fancy little graphic there in the state
Speaker 2: of New Hampshire and the faces of the candidates.
Speaker 3: That's what you guys are helping support.
Speaker 2: But more importantly, it's stuff like this, It's the breaking shows,
Speaker 2: it's the focus groups, and so many more election plans
Speaker 2: that we have and some other expansion things that you
Speaker 2: should stay tuned.
Speaker 3: Forth, including some of the people who are at this desk.
Speaker 2: But before we tease far too much of our plans,
Speaker 2: let's actually break down what the hell happened in New Hampshire.
Speaker 2: I brought everybody the news last night that president, our
Speaker 2: former president, Donald Trump did win the New Hampshire primary.
Speaker 2: We now know exactly how much he won. And he
Speaker 2: gave a victory speech last night, very much framing this
Speaker 2: as a general election victory.
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen to what he said.
Speaker 1: Well, I want to thank everybody. This is a fantastic state.
Speaker 1: This is a great, great state. You know, we won
Speaker 1: New Hampshire three times now three We.
Speaker 4: Win it.
Speaker 1: Every time we win the primary, we win the generals.
Speaker 1: We've won it, and it's a very very special place
Speaker 1: to meet. But she ran up what it was seven,
Speaker 1: and you know, we have to do what's good for
Speaker 1: our party. And she was up and I said, wow,
Speaker 1: she's doing like a speech like she won. She didn't win.
Speaker 1: She lost. And you know, last week we had a
Speaker 1: little bit of a problem. And if you remember, Ron
Speaker 1: was very upset because she ran up and she pretended
Speaker 1: she won Iowa. And I looked around, I said, didn't
Speaker 1: she come in third? Yeah, she came in third. And
Speaker 1: then I looked at the polls. She was talking about
Speaker 1: most winnability, who's going to win? And I had one
Speaker 1: put up. I don't know if you see it, but
Speaker 1: I have one put up. We've won almost every single
Speaker 1: poll in the last three months against Crooked Joe Biden.
Speaker 5: Almost every pole, and she doesn't win those polls. And
Speaker 5: she doesn't win those This is not your typical victory speech.
Speaker 5: But let's not have somebody take a victory when she
Speaker 5: had a very bad night. The other thing, she only
Speaker 5: got twenty five percent of the Republican votes, all right.
Speaker 2: So that's going to be a very common talking point there,
Speaker 2: Nicki Haley. We can now say did win about but
Speaker 2: did lose? I apologize, I guess a win. Maybe in
Speaker 2: her book we can discuss by about eleven points last night,
Speaker 2: Donald Trump getting some fifty four percent of the total vote. Now,
Speaker 2: before we get to everybody's thoughts, Nikki did, and we
Speaker 2: want to preview this because this really does set up
Speaker 2: the conversation. She really did give a speech as if
Speaker 2: she had won. Were really He's not joking and neither
Speaker 2: are we. Immediately almost after the polls closed, some eight
Speaker 2: thirty pm that she appeared on the stage, she pledged
Speaker 2: that she was going to keep going. We have some
Speaker 2: of that videos. Take a listen we're all going to react.
Speaker 2: On the other side, I want.
Speaker 6: To congratulate Donald Trump on his victory tonight. He earned it,
Speaker 6: and I want to acknowledge that. Now you've all heard
Speaker 6: the chatter among.
Speaker 3: The political class.
Speaker 6: They're falling all over themselves saying this race is over. Well,
Speaker 6: I have news for all of them. New Hampshire is
Speaker 6: first in the nation. It is not the last in
Speaker 6: the nation. This race is far from over.
Speaker 7: There are dozens of states left to go, and the
Speaker 7: next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.
Speaker 6: With Donald Trump, Republicans have lost almost every competitive election.
Speaker 6: We lost the Senate, we lost the House, we lost
Speaker 6: the White House, we lost in twenty eighteen, we lost
Speaker 6: in twenty twenty, and we lost in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 6: The worst kept secret in politics is how badly the
Speaker 6: Democrats want to run against Donald Trump.
Speaker 8: The lawyer.
Speaker 2: All right, very enthusiastic crowd. I could say that for
Speaker 2: the nicky Haley of people who were there in attendance. So, guys, Emily,
Speaker 2: let me go first to you and get your initial reaction.
Speaker 2: If you want, we can put the results up there
Speaker 2: on the screen and you can react to some of
Speaker 2: the things that we saw there there we go fifty
Speaker 2: four percent for Trump, forty three percent for Nicky Haley,
Speaker 2: and point seven for Ron Desanta's interesting.
Speaker 3: For whoever those people work, what do you make of
Speaker 3: last night?
Speaker 9: Yes, just when everyone thought they had a bro show.
Speaker 9: I am here to play hall monitor. But I will
Speaker 9: also add that Nikkia Haley has spent an obscene amount
Speaker 9: of money. So let's just for a moment pause and
Speaker 9: recognize that she outspent everyone in Iowa.
Speaker 8: She also now outspent everyone in New Hampshire.
Speaker 9: I have the information right in front of This is
Speaker 9: from CNN, they say, according to ad Impact Data, Hailey's
Speaker 9: campaign and supportive outside groups have spent more than thirty
Speaker 9: one million dollars on advertising in New Hampshire just since
Speaker 9: the start of twenty twenty three.
Speaker 8: Now, so far in twenty twenty four, they wrote.
Speaker 9: Haley's campaign and its allies has spent about twelve point
Speaker 9: three million dollars in advertising, compared with about nine point
Speaker 9: eight million for Trump and his allies. So just take
Speaker 9: that and put it back up with the fact that
Speaker 9: she lost by eleven points. She lost by double digits
Speaker 9: in Iowa, she lost by double digits in New Hampshire,
Speaker 9: and she is now saying that there's still some path
Speaker 9: to put up that much money by double digits, So
Speaker 9: there's some path that she has to the nomination.
Speaker 8: She does not have the path to the nomination.
Speaker 9: The media enjoys a competitive storyline, and Nicki Haley is
Speaker 9: going to continue to get money.
Speaker 8: She can ride this out as.
Speaker 9: Much as she wanted, as much as she wants because
Speaker 9: people will continue to give.
Speaker 8: Her money, at least for the next month or so.
Speaker 9: She is down and you heard her there just say
Speaker 9: her sweet state of South Carolina. Guess what the polling
Speaker 9: the RCP averages. It's Trump at fifty two, Nikki Haley
Speaker 9: at twenty.
Speaker 8: One, fifty two to twenty one.
Speaker 9: So not even all the money in the world can
Speaker 9: get Republican voters to like Niki Haley. So to the
Speaker 9: extent that Nikki Haley continues to be a factor in
Speaker 9: this election, it is because the media and her wealthy
Speaker 9: donors continue to sponsor her. It is not because the
Speaker 9: Republican voters. We're not talking about the general electorate. Is
Speaker 9: not because the GOP voters have any interest in Nicki Haley.
Speaker 10: Ryan, what's your reaction, Well, one quick little kind of
Speaker 10: fact check point on Trump. Notice, at the very beginning
Speaker 10: he said, we've always won the primaries. True, we also
Speaker 10: win the generals. He did this funny pause where I
Speaker 10: think you could see his wheels turning, where he's like, oh, wait,
Speaker 10: I actually haven't won the job.
Speaker 3: He didn't. I'm glad you pointed it out. And then
Speaker 3: he's like, but I'm gonna say it. Yeah, what's the difference.
Speaker 3: I'm just going to go.
Speaker 10: But Emily's point is great because you know, you can
Speaker 10: look at this and say, oh, well, she only lost
Speaker 10: by ten ten, ten plus points or so. But when
Speaker 10: you consider the fact that she so massively outspent him
Speaker 10: and her you know, her supporters so massively outspent him,
Speaker 10: it raises the question of how on earth you can
Speaker 10: sustain that, because if she doesn't outspend at that scale,
Speaker 10: you know, she loses by maybe twenty or twenty five
Speaker 10: points and a kind of narrow ish loss. It just
Speaker 10: looks like a complete blowout. This race is over. I
Speaker 10: don't I does she have some thing where she wants
Speaker 10: to be humiliated in South Carolina? Or is she going
Speaker 10: to drop out before that? It seems to be the
Speaker 10: only question, like.
Speaker 2: I really have no idea, and I mean look for
Speaker 2: people who are saying, you know, maybe you guys are
Speaker 2: being unfair.
Speaker 3: You know, she did. She didn't lose by twenty she
Speaker 3: only lost by eleven.
Speaker 2: Here's what people need to remember, Okay, in New Hampshire,
Speaker 2: Democrats and undecided voters could actually vote in the GOP
Speaker 2: primary as long as they changed the registration like a
Speaker 2: couple of days before. If you want a perfect example
Speaker 2: of this, guys, here's two clips from both from mainstream
Speaker 2: media outlets where you have literal Democrats and Biden voters
Speaker 2: who decided to cross over and support Nicki Haley. So
Speaker 2: even in an open primary system where Democrats could enter
Speaker 2: and where Democrats could try and make sure that she,
Speaker 2: you know, had some chance against Donald Trump, she still
Speaker 2: lost by eleven points.
Speaker 3: When it was a closed.
Speaker 2: System like the GOP primary in I always you got
Speaker 2: absolutely obliterated and blown out.
Speaker 3: So we've got two separate clips that we can show people.
Speaker 3: Let's take a lesson Nicki Haley.
Speaker 11: And why did you vote for Nicki Haley?
Speaker 3: It's a vote against Trump.
Speaker 12: I think it would be better to have her against
Speaker 12: Biden in the elections.
Speaker 3: Then it would be Trump.
Speaker 11: In her do you consider yourself generally independent, Republican or
Speaker 11: Democrat Democrat? So when you undeclared you voted for Niki Haley.
Speaker 11: If it was Nicki Haley against Joe Biden in the
Speaker 11: general election, who are you voting for?
Speaker 3: Christian? Who did you vote for?
Speaker 11: And why?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: So thank you.
Speaker 4: I voted for Nicki Haley, and it was certainly a
Speaker 4: strategic vote. I think the DNC is fairly resolute and
Speaker 4: their nomination for Joe Biden. And while I wouldn't vote
Speaker 4: for her in a general election, particularly on our differences
Speaker 4: with climate change solution, a woman's right to bodily autonomy,
Speaker 4: or incarceration rates, I think a vote for Nicki Haley
Speaker 4: is helps diminish Trump's influence in the RNC and their nomination,
Speaker 4: but is also vote towards democracy.
Speaker 2: I watched that one live and I was like, I
Speaker 2: couldn't even believe it's like you have it ninety. It
Speaker 2: was a nineteen year old Dartmouth freshman who's literally a Democrat,
Speaker 2: and he's like, I would not vote for her in
Speaker 2: the general election, There's no way, but you know, I
Speaker 2: came out to vote.
Speaker 3: Also, if you're going to brag about your strategic vote.
Speaker 3: You don't admit it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well no, all strategy so naked. I mean, and
Speaker 2: that's the thing, Emily, for me, and all of this
Speaker 2: bears out in the exit polls. Let's go and put
Speaker 2: the first one up here on the screen. We can
Speaker 2: just look very very clearly about what's happening. So, for example,
Speaker 2: do you think that Joe Biden legitimately won the election?
Speaker 2: This was in the state of New Hampshire. Yes, forty
Speaker 2: nine percent, No, forty nine percent. The reason that that
Speaker 2: yes number is so much higher in New Hampshire is
Speaker 2: now obvious. It's because he had huge independent and or
Speaker 2: Democratic crossover that came in. And now, are you part
Speaker 2: of the MAGA movement? Thirty two percent said yes, sixty
Speaker 2: four percent said no. Huge difference from the state of Iowa.
Speaker 2: But what stuck out to me, Emily is that Trumps
Speaker 2: still won. Is that even amongst people, if you say
Speaker 2: Joe Biden legitimately won the election, even if with two
Speaker 2: thirds of people say I'm not part of the mag movement,
Speaker 2: the guy.
Speaker 3: Still got fifty four percent of the vote.
Speaker 2: I mean, these are all just basically the way I
Speaker 2: was looking at it is that yeah, Nikki Haley ran
Speaker 2: up massive numbers in all of these college educated places.
Speaker 2: She won the most liberal place in the state of
Speaker 2: New Hampshire, Hanover, where Dartmouth College is.
Speaker 3: Maybe thanks to that nineteen.
Speaker 2: Years he put her over the edge, but the whole
Speaker 2: point is that she was not able to even come
Speaker 2: close in any of the rural the suburban areas. And
Speaker 2: as we continue to go through the exits, I mean,
Speaker 2: the divide on this is just absolutely massive.
Speaker 9: Yeah, absolutely, And I bet that nineteen year old is
Speaker 9: a Raggrim fan.
Speaker 8: That's my posie.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm sure.
Speaker 9: But anyway, so, yes, and when people yesterday were looking
Speaker 9: at those exit poles as the numbers were rolling in
Speaker 9: before we had you know, actual voting tabulations, saying this
Speaker 9: looks really good for Nikki, I was thinking, actually, this
Speaker 9: looks really similar to what we saw.
Speaker 8: In Iowa when you look at the breakdown.
Speaker 9: Of people who thought the election was stolen whatever it is,
Speaker 9: even people who said noted that turned out for Donald
Speaker 9: Trump in Iowa. Again, Donald Trump won the educated counties,
Speaker 9: he won urban, he won high income. Now, the margins
Speaker 9: were different. We talked about that last week and it
Speaker 9: was really interesting. But here's where Nikki Haley. These are
Speaker 9: your CNN's exit polls. This is super telling. She won
Speaker 9: seventy percent of the registered undeclared voters. According to the
Speaker 9: exit poles, she won only twenty seven percent of registered
Speaker 9: Republican voters, So seventy percent of those undeclared that you
Speaker 9: can register. Assaga was saying as an undeclared voter, and
Speaker 9: that's a really really big deal obviously, because it goes
Speaker 9: to show that among the sort of normal GOP primary voter,
Speaker 9: this is a state where people were putting lots of
Speaker 9: money in. They were pumping these ideas about coming in
Speaker 9: and voting for people even.
Speaker 8: If you're not a Republican voter.
Speaker 9: She was really really banking on that, and even with
Speaker 9: those millions and millions of dollars, it wasn't enough to
Speaker 9: get her within single digits. Because Donald Trump is popular
Speaker 9: with Republican voters and the media doesn't want to accept it,
Speaker 9: donors don't want to accept it. But Donald Trump is
Speaker 9: popular with Republican voters.
Speaker 8: And that's that.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, look again and again and again every exit
Speaker 2: poll we assembled here. We just want to beat this
Speaker 2: into people's heads because it's very useful for not just
Speaker 2: thinking about the GOP primary, but also in the future.
Speaker 2: And I don't want to put Trump off the hook.
Speaker 2: There's actually a lot of trouble for him in some
Speaker 2: of these numbers. So let's, for example, let's put this
Speaker 2: up there on the screen. Now, you've got do you
Speaker 2: think that Biden legitimately won the election? Amongst Trump voters?
Speaker 2: Seventeen percent said yes? No is eighty percent. That actually
Speaker 2: tracks with overall GOP polling. But look at the Haley number.
Speaker 2: Do you think that Biden legitimately won in twenty twenty
Speaker 2: amongst Haley voters, eighty three percent said yes and no
Speaker 2: was fifteen percent. The flag to me there is like, okay, well,
Speaker 2: you know when you're going to compete in a general
Speaker 2: election and most people, you know, was some sixty So
Speaker 2: last time I checked, say that Biden did legitimately win,
Speaker 2: and you're losing an eighty three to fifteen split. Obviously
Speaker 2: it's not going to be that high Ryan whenever it
Speaker 2: does come to the general election.
Speaker 3: But if you're trailing that hard, you.
Speaker 2: Know, in a category that's that important, you can see
Speaker 2: a twenty twenty two stop the steel style revulsion really
Speaker 2: keep people away from Trump, that's the only flag I
Speaker 2: want to put in there.
Speaker 10: Right, Yes, And Nikki Haley in her speech last night,
Speaker 10: not wrong.
Speaker 13: It's just that Republican voters don't they don't care, don't
Speaker 13: want to wrong audience, She's correct twenty eighteen, right, Blue
Speaker 13: Wave twenty twenty, Joe Biden twenty twenty two. They expected
Speaker 13: that they would do much better than they eventually did,
Speaker 13: and Trump kind of it was. Democrats successfully made twenty
Speaker 13: twenty two a referendum on Trump. He also lost by
Speaker 13: three million votes in twenty sixteen. So every time he's
Speaker 13: been on the ballot, Democrats have beaten him, except for
Speaker 13: because the electoral college he won in twenty sixteen. But yeah,
Speaker 13: to your point, Republican voters do genuinely understand that a
Speaker 13: lot of them think, well, it's rigged. But even if
Speaker 13: they don't think it's rigged, they don't care that this
Speaker 13: is the guy that they want to ride into battle.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then well I also have a point of
Speaker 3: sig go ahead please.
Speaker 4: So yeah.
Speaker 9: So actually, one other interesting point that Trump made is
Speaker 9: that he's, you know, beating Joe Biden in all these polls. Well,
Speaker 9: this was a huge thing for Nikki Haley because there
Speaker 9: was polling that found her with the best margins against Biden,
Speaker 9: and that was something that you were taking the donor
Speaker 9: class and saying, look.
Speaker 8: At this, look at this.
Speaker 9: But again, Republican voters, to all of the points that
Speaker 9: you guys just made, Donald Trump was wrong when he
Speaker 9: said that, you know, he's the one that does the
Speaker 9: best against Joe Biden's not. There aren't a lot of
Speaker 9: polls that would put him ahead of DeSantis and Nicky Haley.
Speaker 9: Although that's all going to change now, but just in
Speaker 9: the past month or so, that was not true. So again,
Speaker 9: Republican voters, though, to the point that everyone just made,
Speaker 9: they are not on board with saying it's what we
Speaker 9: want to have a Pete Buddha judge Amy Klobashar sort
Speaker 9: of puddle pick a Nikki Haley candidate. That Republican voters
Speaker 9: are rejecting that model absolutely.
Speaker 2: I mean, we see this in the ideology numbers too.
Speaker 2: We can put that up there just to give people
Speaker 2: an idea. And you know, another thing to keep in
Speaker 2: mind is that there was massive turnout last night. Donald
Speaker 2: Trump won more New Hampshire votes than any other person
Speaker 2: in the history of the New Hampshire primary Democrat or Republican.
Speaker 2: They beat the turnout numbers by fifty thousand from twenty sixteen,
Speaker 2: just to show you the amount of energy. And yet
Speaker 2: in the composition of that electorate last night, forty nine
Speaker 2: percent were registered Republicans. Forty seven percent were registered undeclared.
Speaker 2: Amongst the ideology, same thing is very very different in Iowa.
Speaker 2: You've got very conservative for twenty four percent, somewhat conservative,
Speaker 2: thirty nine moderate thirty one. It was you know, nine
Speaker 2: percent of that was moderate in the state of Iowa.
Speaker 2: Again just showing why Nikki Haley did overperform here. But
Speaker 2: when you're overperforming amongst literal Democrats and people who are
Speaker 2: not Republicans, that's a very difficult problem for whenever it
Speaker 2: comes to the general election and then the final exit poll.
Speaker 2: This is one where you know, I could spend all
Speaker 2: day on this thing. Let's put this up there because
Speaker 2: this is this is it, like, this is the This
Speaker 2: is American politics in a nutshell.
Speaker 3: New Hampshire exit polls.
Speaker 2: Never college Trump fifty four percent, some college Trump twenty
Speaker 2: five percent, bachelor's degree Haley plus thirteen, advanced degree Haley
Speaker 2: plus twenty six so Nikki Haley doing well amongst college
Speaker 2: educated voters and amongst people who've got advanced degrees.
Speaker 3: But to echo what Crystal said last night, that's not.
Speaker 2: Really a winning category whenever it comes to Republican politics.
Speaker 2: And by the way, it's not our winning category for
Speaker 2: Democrats either. You can just ask Elizabeth Warren how that
Speaker 2: worked out for her back in the twenty twenty primary.
Speaker 3: And that is the whole ballgame.
Speaker 2: But the issue is that, look for Republicans and now
Speaker 2: let's put on our general election hat because you know,
Speaker 2: basically sure we can twist in the win for the.
Speaker 3: Next month that we want to. That's fine.
Speaker 2: We can all pretend. Let's see what happens. And look,
Speaker 2: I'll give the other side of this. A month is
Speaker 2: a long ass time in American politics, Like, who the
Speaker 2: hell knows what could happen. There's all kinds of black
Speaker 2: swan events. That's what basically what Nikki Haley's hoping for.
Speaker 2: You were going to say something, go ahead.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I was just gonna jump in quickly to say,
Speaker 9: then we go to the national poll. So if we
Speaker 9: look at the RCPA average, because you have South Carolina,
Speaker 9: then you have.
Speaker 8: Nevada or Trump is very popular and about it. And
Speaker 8: then on Super.
Speaker 9: Tuesday you have a lot of delegates, some like twelve
Speaker 9: hundred delegates up for grabs, and that's going to look
Speaker 9: a lot more like the national polling. And so Nikki
Speaker 9: Haley spending a lot of money and still losing by
Speaker 9: double digits in a tiny state with a really friendly,
Speaker 9: probably the most friendly Republican electorate because you can have
Speaker 9: the undeclared people coming and vote for her. This is
Speaker 9: over because in those national polls she is down.
Speaker 8: So much more.
Speaker 9: Donald Trump is over fifty percent in those polls, because
Speaker 9: around sixty plus percent in national polls. And so when
Speaker 9: you look at those people with advanced degrees, master's degrees
Speaker 9: coming in and saying Nikki Haley is a viable candidate
Speaker 9: for the next month, even though there are black Swan events,
Speaker 9: anything could happen.
Speaker 8: There's a possibility that Trump goes to jail. I get it.
Speaker 8: But even if that.
Speaker 9: Happens, Even if that happens, the wealthy, college educated people
Speaker 9: are now going to spend a month and millions of
Speaker 9: dollars trying to push this candidate on Republican voters that
Speaker 9: they have rejected by double digits in two early states,
Speaker 9: even one that's very friendly to her, even where she's
Speaker 9: outspent everybody else. And now they're going to keep trying
Speaker 9: to push them on Republican voters. The media is going
Speaker 9: to help them do it. It's just an absurd circus.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it is, certainly.
Speaker 2: And like we said, look, this is we've got a
Speaker 2: month until the South Carolina primary. It's actually, you know,
Speaker 2: a pretty decent amount of time, and then that's when
Speaker 2: things really kick off.
Speaker 11: Ryan.
Speaker 2: So we've got South Carolina that we have Super Tuesday
Speaker 2: at Florida, and that's like really when the total bow
Speaker 2: will be tied. I'm curious, you know, if you guys think,
Speaker 2: do you think she'll drop before South Carolina, like maybe
Speaker 2: the day before something like that, if the polling position,
Speaker 2: if the you know, the black Swan event or whatever
Speaker 2: doesn't happen, Ryan, you first, and.
Speaker 10: Then you could certainly imagine that happening, because who wants
Speaker 10: to lose by forty in your home state?
Speaker 3: Right, It's it's brutal, it's horrible, right, But yes, you know.
Speaker 10: If you stick around for three four weeks and something happens,
Speaker 10: then she's kind of the front runner, you know, fending
Speaker 10: off everybody who jumps back in, but you know, absent that, like,
Speaker 10: why would you want to get waxed in your own
Speaker 10: home state?
Speaker 2: Exactly, Emily, what do you think you think she'll drop
Speaker 2: out before South Carolina? Or do you think she'll stay
Speaker 2: in and then you know, get she'll lose there and
Speaker 2: then she'll drop out that night. It just seems so
Speaker 2: brutal because her most By the way, have you guys
Speaker 2: watched the evolution of her talking point, She's like, I've
Speaker 2: never lost an election that I'm in, And now last
Speaker 2: night I picked up on this. It was I've never
Speaker 2: lost an election in South Carolina. So now I'm like,
Speaker 2: I don't know, that's a pretty good talking point. I'm
Speaker 2: not sure I would want to let that one go
Speaker 2: if I were her. But you know, the ego can
Speaker 2: do a lot of things to people's to people's minds.
Speaker 3: What do you think we should get a.
Speaker 8: Clip of that?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 9: I'm up two minds about this because I actually think
Speaker 9: right now, there's a lot of cash to be one
Speaker 9: And I say cash not c A s H but
Speaker 9: c ah, because when you stay in and become the
Speaker 9: single issue never Trump candidate, you can do like that
Speaker 9: that will make her a hero with the people, say,
Speaker 9: people who put her on the Boeing board, and that
Speaker 9: seems to be to me what she cares about.
Speaker 8: The sort of Tea party era, a.
Speaker 9: Chameleon who then became Trump's un ambassador, was super Trumpy,
Speaker 9: is now back to be never Trumpy.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 8: You can just win a.
Speaker 9: Lot of you know, kind of accolades from the donor
Speaker 9: class and the media by staying in and being the
Speaker 9: single issue never Trump bulwark, Uh to use the phrase bullwark.
Speaker 9: And so I'm two minds. So does she do that
Speaker 9: all the way to the bitter end and be that
Speaker 9: person that the media goes to for the anti Trump
Speaker 9: talking points, be that person who can then be the
Speaker 9: sort of champion of the never Trump.
Speaker 8: World going forward. I don't know, but.
Speaker 9: I think there's something to what Ryan said and what
Speaker 9: you said, Sager.
Speaker 8: I agree.
Speaker 9: I mean, I have a hard time of seeing somebody
Speaker 9: put putting themselves through that level of humiliation. At the
Speaker 9: same time, if you're doing it for the virtuous cause,
Speaker 9: then maybe that's the audience she really cares about.
Speaker 2: Now exactly exactly right. Okay, let's move on to the Democrats.
Speaker 2: Let's take a little bit of a look at the
Speaker 2: results from last night. Let's go to put this up
Speaker 2: there on the screen and let's see what were the
Speaker 2: actual results, folks. Okay, so Joe Biden, it appears one
Speaker 2: fifty one point five percent of the vote. We've got
Speaker 2: Dean Phillips at nineteen point eight. The key thing here
Speaker 2: is unprocessed, right ins. Some of those, Ryan, I think
Speaker 2: are going to go to Biden, some could go to
Speaker 2: the ceasefire. Then you've got other rite ins. I'm not
Speaker 2: really sure what that even means. They didn't seem to
Speaker 2: tabulate it. Marian Williamson coming in at four point seven percent,
Speaker 2: so I can go ahead and give them a cull by.
Speaker 2: I was definitely wrong about Dean. I thought he was
Speaker 2: going to overperform. I thought his name being on the
Speaker 2: ballot would come out to thirty. But you know what, guys,
Speaker 2: I mean, you know a lot of these voters, and
Speaker 2: I saw some various interviews on you know, MSNBC or CNN.
Speaker 2: I was I was like switching through just to see
Speaker 2: what exactly some of the live conversations with these democrats were.
Speaker 2: In general, Ryan, a lot of them were people who
Speaker 2: were just normal Democrats and they're like Hey, you know,
Speaker 2: I just came out I like to vote.
Speaker 3: We take we take this very seriously in New Hampshire.
Speaker 2: You know, it's like I teach One of them was
Speaker 2: a teacher, like I teach my kids about CI responsibility
Speaker 2: and they were like, oh cool, So why did you
Speaker 2: come out to vote? And she's like, you know, I
Speaker 2: just like Biden came in, right, Biden, This no big deal.
Speaker 2: It's like seven pm or whatever. And I was like, hey,
Speaker 2: you know, that's actually a very sweet thing. It's very
Speaker 2: clear that New Hampshire to them overwhelmingly the interviews that
Speaker 2: I saw on TV but also Twitter, Michael Tracy for example,
Speaker 2: these people.
Speaker 3: Take this shit seriously. I mean they really take it seriously,
Speaker 3: like coming out to actually vote.
Speaker 2: I'm how else in a you know, uncompetitive vertu basically
Speaker 2: primary on both sides, you have record turnout fifty thousand
Speaker 2: some votes in the GOP primary, decent amount of votes
Speaker 2: that were cast, you know, in the Democratic primary. So
Speaker 2: give us your you know, Democratic primary.
Speaker 10: Take from amsure right and so so far, and the
Speaker 10: New York Times breaks down the right ends as six
Speaker 10: thousand at this point, six thousand, six hundred and eight.
Speaker 10: Other right ends yes, and I would think almost all
Speaker 10: of those are ceasefire, except.
Speaker 3: When will we know that?
Speaker 10: Do you know in the next day, like today? We
Speaker 10: should know today or tomorrow, which I had. You know,
Speaker 10: the organizers in the campaign were talking hundreds or maybe
Speaker 10: low thousands, So if they ended up over six thousand,
Speaker 10: that's a pretty significant kind of variant.
Speaker 3: It was pretty crazy.
Speaker 10: Well, it looks like they're going to beat Mariyan Williams,
Speaker 10: who only had five thousand votes and just under five percent. Right,
Speaker 10: then there's unprocessed right INDs, which they describe as just
Speaker 10: ones that haven't been counted yet. Most of those are
Speaker 10: probably just based on the numbers. If he got fifty
Speaker 10: percent of what's been already been counted, you can imagine
Speaker 10: he's going to get at least fifty percent of the
Speaker 10: remaining unprocessed.
Speaker 3: Right. That's but you could be looking at, uh, you know,
Speaker 3: ten percent of.
Speaker 10: The electorate voting for ceasefire to if this, if this
Speaker 10: pans out the way it looks like it possibly could,
Speaker 10: which is far and away more than people thought was
Speaker 10: way more like remotely possible. But well, we'll see, because
Speaker 10: you're just looking at a black Boxy Rine.
Speaker 2: Will be with me on the main show tomorrow and
Speaker 2: we'll talk about that just to see when we get
Speaker 2: the final number.
Speaker 3: Emily, what's your overall take?
Speaker 2: You know for the Democratic primary, I mean, wasn't all
Speaker 2: that unexpected per se, But you know, Biden did a
Speaker 2: lot better than I thought it would. You know, I
Speaker 2: think Crystal had him at sixty. It looks like you'd
Speaker 2: come in around fifty one, but where might help at sixty.
Speaker 2: You might actually rive at sixty. So she seems to
Speaker 2: be like dead on the money in that case. The
Speaker 2: polls you're mostly correct and overwhelming victory for him, even
Speaker 2: though he literally wasn't on the state. So his riding
Speaker 2: campaign seems to have worked. You know, the voter suppression
Speaker 2: and all that weird campaign that we covered yesterday, all
Speaker 2: that seems to be okay. And Dean, you know, you
Speaker 2: only cracking twenty percent, but I mean, I guess you
Speaker 2: could look at it two ways. Twenty percent is also
Speaker 2: not nothing. That's one if the people who did come
Speaker 2: out to vote. He definitely had the advantage of having
Speaker 2: his name on the ballot, but you only latched his
Speaker 2: campaign a couple of weeks ago, so you know, he's
Speaker 2: not dropping out of the race yet, So we'll see
Speaker 2: before I play his reaction.
Speaker 3: What do you think?
Speaker 9: Yeah, No, I mean I think that's true because when
Speaker 9: you're running in New Hampshire, you lay the groundwork there
Speaker 9: for months and months and months, you know, Ronda Santis
Speaker 9: on the ground, on the ground in Iowa. He put
Speaker 9: all his eggs in an Iowa basket. He was there
Speaker 9: for better part of a year. And when you're doing that,
Speaker 9: typically and you want to win a primary, you spend
Speaker 9: tons of time and there, you spend tons of money there.
Speaker 9: But it's over months and months, not just over the
Speaker 9: short period. That said, I was a little surprised that
Speaker 9: his number was that low.
Speaker 8: I would have probably put it up.
Speaker 9: Five ten points higher, just in my gus, because there
Speaker 9: was just New Hampshire voters I think really were given
Speaker 9: the middle finger by the DNC, and I expected some
Speaker 9: of that anger to be taken out by protest votes
Speaker 9: or Team Phillips America, So probaly would have put them
Speaker 9: a little higher.
Speaker 10: Yeah, you have more respect for a Democratic voters than
Speaker 10: they have for themselves.
Speaker 3: That's true.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're like, please stompbo me, stomp on me, please
Speaker 2: smack me again.
Speaker 3: There's more word for that I won't get into it.
Speaker 2: All right, let's go ahead and play Dean Phillips and
Speaker 2: let's see what he had to say about the results
Speaker 2: last night.
Speaker 12: Congratulations to President Biden, who absolutely won tonight, but by
Speaker 12: no means in a way that a strong incumbent president should.
Speaker 12: But I respect him he won. I want to congratulate
Speaker 12: former President Trump for winning tonight as well. But Nikki
Speaker 12: Hayley just said she's been here working for a year. Well,
Speaker 12: we've been at this for ten weeks, my friends. We
Speaker 12: decided two weeks before the October twenty seven deadline to
Speaker 12: come up to CONCUERD bring a thousand dollars check. I
Speaker 12: was thirty five years old or older, and I was
Speaker 12: born in the US, so we became a presidential candidate.
Speaker 12: We and we just earned twenty percent tonight, And no
Speaker 12: one knew who you were ten weeks ago.
Speaker 3: Nobody.
Speaker 12: I know the exhausted majority of this center right and
Speaker 12: center left Americans, I know they'd much rather see a
Speaker 12: Nikki Haley Dean Phillips matchup this November. And we're gonna
Speaker 12: try to get that done.
Speaker 3: All right, I mean, we're gonna get that done.
Speaker 2: We'll see I guess like he's got the same thing
Speaker 2: he now he's got.
Speaker 3: To go to South Carolina.
Speaker 2: Anybody want to tell me how a young white guy
Speaker 2: fared in South Carolina last time? Ryn, you know, a
Speaker 2: very similar political ideology to mister Phillips versus Joe Biden.
Speaker 3: How out of that workout?
Speaker 2: I mean, I I listen, I think I'll probably lose
Speaker 2: even bigger than Budda Judge did in that stage.
Speaker 10: And Buddha Judge the favorite story that I wrote in
Speaker 10: the entire cycle.
Speaker 3: I remember this, you remember the faith absolutely.
Speaker 10: He just lied about having some black support, like and
Speaker 10: I called them up and they're like, Frederick Douglas plan,
Speaker 10: I don't endorse this, and I don't endorse Pete Bootage.
Speaker 3: What is going on? It's like, well, yeah, how did
Speaker 3: my name get on there?
Speaker 10: So maybe that's Dean's path in South Carolina, just to
Speaker 10: put some people's names down without without asking them.
Speaker 8: But he had a black friend, and Ryan was.
Speaker 3: Like called nut friends.
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, we don't have any there's been no Marianne has
Speaker 2: not as far as we can find. Our team was
Speaker 2: not able to find any video or rally or anything
Speaker 2: from last night, but we did try just for anybody
Speaker 2: who was wondering.
Speaker 10: The extreme blackout of the primary on Democratic kind of
Speaker 10: a line in media MSNBC, in New York Times I
Speaker 10: think contributed to this. There was a moment last night
Speaker 10: on on MSNBC where Rachel Maddow was kind of announcing
Speaker 10: the results and she says, and she reads out the
Speaker 10: totals and for miss Williams reads her totals like that's
Speaker 10: Mary Anne names Marianne, she did know her name, and
Speaker 10: mss and mister Phillips his name is Dean. And she
Speaker 10: then congratulated herself for like getting getting their names right.
Speaker 3: This is like deeply smug, like it.
Speaker 10: Looked like an act, like you know, Mary Williamson's name,
Speaker 10: best selling author for decades, Like come on, everybody in
Speaker 10: western Massachusetts loves Mary Williams.
Speaker 3: Also, am I the only one who thought Matt I
Speaker 3: looked like a Bond villain? Can I? Can I say that?
Speaker 2: Did you guys note that it was like an all
Speaker 2: black turtleneck thing with it was an interesting look?
Speaker 8: But where I come in as hall monitor? Yeah yeah, misogynist?
Speaker 3: Is that masts?
Speaker 14: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Yeah true? Yeah, there you go. I'm giving her a compliments.
Speaker 2: She would be a good Bond villain in many ways
Speaker 2: of a villain here in the US. I'm all right,
Speaker 2: so let's okay wrap up our thoughts here for the primer.
Speaker 2: I mean, look, we knew it was going to be
Speaker 2: over any chance, I think for Dean, and all of
Speaker 2: them basically evaporated last night. Andrew yang who has been
Speaker 2: a major Dean Phillips backer, he basically I guess both
Speaker 2: him and Phillips they intimated they're not dropping out. Andrew
Speaker 2: Yank's like, we're continuing this because I don't want to
Speaker 2: watch Joe Biden's concession speech.
Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, I mean, this
Speaker 3: thing just looks locked in. I mean, you know, in general.
Speaker 2: That's why I was trying to bring in some general
Speaker 2: election polling in our previous block about Republican Republican results,
Speaker 2: because it just seems foolish to even pretend now at
Speaker 2: this point. So what was what can we maybe glean
Speaker 2: from this primary for the overall general election. Biden clearly
Speaker 2: in a strong position with the Democratic base at least
Speaker 2: whenever it comes to votes, even it doesn't necessarily match
Speaker 2: up with some of the polling that says a lot
Speaker 2: of people were disgusted with him, with his age. They're
Speaker 2: very disgruntled. Many of them are still willing to you know,
Speaker 2: even in the Haley case, for example, if we sub
Speaker 2: her out for Biden, I think the majority of the
Speaker 2: people who came out to vote for Nikki Haley last
Speaker 2: night did so because her name was not Trump. Very
Speaker 2: very similar emily to the dynamic of Joe Biden in
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty election, and it seems that force could
Speaker 2: not just be more pop not just as potent's twenty twenty,
Speaker 2: it actually be more potent. So Biden may not be
Speaker 2: as weak position, you know, as we might have thought
Speaker 2: a year or so ago.
Speaker 8: What do you think, Oh, that's an interesting point. I
Speaker 8: actually hadn't thought about that.
Speaker 9: I think there's probably truth there, Jennething I would say,
Speaker 9: is you know, when we're looking at the general election
Speaker 9: from primaries, I don't know.
Speaker 8: I never know what to draw from it, just because
Speaker 8: to your point.
Speaker 9: One of the reasons I think Dean Phillips and probably
Speaker 9: Nikki Haley too, I think this maybe applies to both
Speaker 9: of them wants.
Speaker 8: To stay in the race.
Speaker 9: Is that, you know, black swan event with something unpredicted
Speaker 9: with Biden's health or I shouldn't say unpredicted because a
Speaker 9: lot of people have made predictions about Joe Biden's health.
Speaker 9: But if something happens to Joe Biden, you sort of
Speaker 9: have an air apparent.
Speaker 8: If as these states.
Speaker 9: Go on, Dean Phillips is able to wrack up, you know,
Speaker 9: significant chunks of the vote, and I think twenty percent
Speaker 9: in New Hampshire.
Speaker 8: I mean, to your point, like, it's not nothing, and.
Speaker 9: So if he keeps showing that he's someone that can,
Speaker 9: you know, get some support, then maybe he's in a
Speaker 9: position if something happens to Biden.
Speaker 8: I don't know.
Speaker 9: That's my guess as to why he stays in. That's
Speaker 9: one of the reasons I think Nikki Haley would want
Speaker 9: to stay in. But you know, it's just like, I
Speaker 9: have no idea what's going to happen between now and
Speaker 9: next November, in terms of the economy, in terms of
Speaker 9: what we're about to talk about next, which is Israel, Ukraine,
Speaker 9: all of that. So it's just really hard because I
Speaker 9: think it's going to be a close election either.
Speaker 3: Way, exactly.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, Look, I don't think there's this slam dunk
Speaker 2: in either case. I still put it at fifty to fifty.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't even give the edge to either of them.
Speaker 2: I think that's too high for both of them. Franklin,
Speaker 2: I think that's I mean, that's.
Speaker 3: Kind of how a lot of people feel.
Speaker 2: That's how a lot of people feel about the election.
Speaker 2: But even though it's very common, everyone says, and including me,
Speaker 2: I'm like, this is the election nobody wants. But listen,
Speaker 2: if they succeed in dragging these two people to the ballot,
Speaker 2: most of us will come out to the polls and
Speaker 2: I have to vote for one of them, or for
Speaker 2: RFK if he's managed to get himself on there as well. Ryan,
Speaker 2: And as I think New Hampshire and the Deep Deal,
Speaker 2: the Democratic Primary and all that can prove you can
Speaker 2: be dissatisfied with somebody, you cannot even like somebody, many
Speaker 2: people will come out to vote for party loyalty.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 10: The idea that the election that everybody wants is Dean
Speaker 10: Phillips against nikkiy Haley is kind of funny. But also
Speaker 10: I think what that is actually expressing is this kind
Speaker 10: of aspiration that people are not as angry as they
Speaker 10: are and that the world is much calmer and chiller
Speaker 10: than it actually is because that's a world in which
Speaker 10: you could imagine Dean Phillips versus a Nikki Haley, where
Speaker 10: it's really hard to tell what they even necessarily disagree about.
Speaker 3: But that's not the public that we have.
Speaker 10: That's not the world we have, and that's not the
Speaker 10: world that has been kind of, you know, deliberately engineered
Speaker 10: by the people who are now frustrated that we don't
Speaker 10: have that peace fairy true.
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm going to drop off now and the people
Speaker 2: who are watching this sequentially will see me in the
Speaker 2: oscars block.
Speaker 10: The IDF killed at least one hundred and twenty Palestinians
Speaker 10: overnight in Gaza as attacks there continued. That's according to
Speaker 10: the Gaza Ministry of Health now plus nine seven two
Speaker 10: in Israeli Israeli news organizations reporting interestingly emily that the
Speaker 10: Israeli intelligence is now using the Gaza Ministry of Health
Speaker 10: numbers in its own assessments. Early on in the conflict,
Speaker 10: they apparently, according to nine to seven two, surveiled the
Speaker 10: Gaza Ministry of Health, which the BBC and others still
Speaker 10: refer to us quote unquote hamas run to try to
Speaker 10: figure out whether or not those casualty figures being produced
Speaker 10: were accurate or not. They determined that they are accurate,
Speaker 10: and so now even Israeli intelligence is now using Ministry
Speaker 10: of Health numbers.
Speaker 3: Now, all this is coming as there.
Speaker 10: Has been reports of a of a two month ceasefire
Speaker 10: offered by Israel and rejected by Hamas John Kirby was
Speaker 10: asked about this yesterday, Let's play a little bit of
Speaker 10: sound from that report that.
Speaker 14: The Israelis are presented in a new ceasefire, a temporary ceasefire,
Speaker 14: or a hostage deal about two month pause to release
Speaker 14: all the hostages and the advise of.
Speaker 8: The civilians and soldiers.
Speaker 14: Can you confirm that as the US engaged as Bretts
Speaker 14: in the leaguer right now, is he trying to actively
Speaker 14: serve drum up support froms for that framework of deal.
Speaker 15: Yeah, I'm not able to confirm those specific reports that
Speaker 15: you're that you're talking about in the press. Brett is
Speaker 15: in the region. He was in Cairo today as a
Speaker 15: matter of fact, and he'll have other stops along the way. Certainly,
Speaker 15: one of the things he's in the region talking about
Speaker 15: is the potential for another hostage deal, which would require
Speaker 15: a humanitarian pause of some length to get that done,
Speaker 15: and that's definitely on the agenda. He'll also be talking
Speaker 15: about a range of other issues, including humanitarian assistance, including
Speaker 15: getting assessment of Israeli Defense force operations and protection of
Speaker 15: civilian life. I mean, there's a lot on his agenda,
Speaker 15: but I can't confirm these reports that those are the
Speaker 15: parameters of the deal that's being discussed. The last thing
Speaker 15: I'll leave you with is that, as I've said before,
Speaker 15: the discussions are sober and serious. Again, I don't want
Speaker 15: to get ahead of where we are or give you
Speaker 15: I can't give you odds on if and when we'll
Speaker 15: be able to get there, but the conversations are very
Speaker 15: sober and serious about trying to get another hostage deal
Speaker 15: in place now Emily.
Speaker 10: Israel has not publicly confirmed that they made this offer,
Speaker 10: though the reporting as strongly suggests that they did. Hamas
Speaker 10: has not publicly confirmed that they rejected the offer, though
Speaker 10: the public reporting suggests that they did. What do you
Speaker 10: make of both the offer and also then the rejection.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I don't know what the Biden administration
Speaker 9: strategy is here, and I just just don't have confidence
Speaker 9: in the Biden administration strategy at all. I was actually
Speaker 9: curious Ryan you made of how John Kakerby handled that question,
Speaker 9: because he when he said I can't confirm that those
Speaker 9: are the parameters of the deal, it sounded like he
Speaker 9: was saying, those are the parameters of dele What did
Speaker 9: you think about that?
Speaker 10: Yes, And the way that he finished it off by
Speaker 10: saying that that the talks are sober and serious around
Speaker 10: you know, upcoming hostage release negotiations does suggest that these
Speaker 10: that these talks are in a pretty advanced stage. I
Speaker 10: think one thing that is underlying all of these talks
Speaker 10: is how poorly the war is going for Israel in particular.
Speaker 10: And we can, you know, put up this next element here,
Speaker 10: which is the biggest example that we've seen. We covered
Speaker 10: this on the show yesterday. Three IDF soldiers were killed
Speaker 10: in separate clashes, but twenty one IDF soldiers were killed
Speaker 10: in a single incident. And I want to talk about
Speaker 10: that incident real briefly before we get into some of
Speaker 10: the other elements in this block. We now understand that
Speaker 10: so this happened on the kind of the eastern end
Speaker 10: of the Gaza Strip, only about six hundred meters from
Speaker 10: a kibbutz that has been evacuated. Israeli government has said
Speaker 10: that the reason that they were doing a controlled demolition
Speaker 10: in this area is so that residents of the Gadzsa
Speaker 10: envelope and particularly that nearby Kuutz could eventually return. In
Speaker 10: other words, they're trying to destroy the civilian infrastructure to
Speaker 10: create a buffer zone. Now, a no buffer zone has
Speaker 10: been a line for the Biden White House. I don't
Speaker 10: want to say redline because they don't seem to kind
Speaker 10: of enforce any of their lines, but they have very
Speaker 10: publicly said that there can that there can be no
Speaker 10: Gaza Strip territory that is currently Palestinian territory that is
Speaker 10: turned op that is lost to the Israeli government. Uh Separately,
Speaker 10: the Geneva Conventions, and one of the elements of the
Speaker 10: Geneva Conventions that Israel itself has ratified, says you cannot
Speaker 10: kind of destroy civilian infrastructure in order to seize territory,
Speaker 10: which which which this very specifically would be doing. So
Speaker 10: this this incident, which has become a massive scandal inside Israel,
Speaker 10: we now understand was being performed in furtherance of what
Speaker 10: is objectively understood to be a war crime.
Speaker 9: So we have also don't we have some further elements
Speaker 9: Ryan that get to this point, just so that people
Speaker 9: can see.
Speaker 8: Let's talk we're talking about.
Speaker 10: Here, sure, and let's talk about some of the other
Speaker 10: kind of things that have been emerging that continue to
Speaker 10: turn people against this war. This The attacks continue on Khanyunis,
Speaker 10: which apparently is something like five hundred thousand plus people
Speaker 10: are now huddled in Conunis, one of the second largest
Speaker 10: city in Gaza, but a place that Israel told.
Speaker 3: People to flee for safety. Let's play this clip here in.
Speaker 16: The yard of Nasa Hospital in Khanyunis, Gazans bury their
Speaker 16: dead on Monday. Is Radi warplanes drown overhead. They're unable
Speaker 16: to reach the cemeteries. Is Raeli tanks storming the main
Speaker 16: city in Gaza's south have reached the gate of this
Speaker 16: and another hospital in the bloodiest fighting of the year
Speaker 16: so far. Abdul Kharim Ahmad says he went through this
Speaker 16: at the Ashiffa complex in Gaza city a few months ago,
Speaker 16: where he also buried loved ones.
Speaker 8: We besieged from all sides. We were living the same
Speaker 8: scenario again and burying them in the.
Speaker 3: Yard of the Nasa hospital.
Speaker 8: There is no safe place.
Speaker 3: No way out.
Speaker 16: Inside the wounded, desperate and stricken, crowded the wards and corridors.
Speaker 16: This is the only major medical complex accessible in car
Speaker 16: Unis and the largest still functioning in Gaza. Rabit Salem's
Speaker 16: injured family waited until morning for an ambulance. My mother
Speaker 16: was alive and told me, don't worry, go grab the others.
Speaker 16: But she's gone now, he says.
Speaker 10: Another war crime allegation that has been breaking through, if
Speaker 10: we just run through this as well into the Western press,
Speaker 10: has been the IDF desecration of cemeteries throughout Gaza. The
Speaker 10: Times of Visral here reporting IDF said heavily damage sixteen
Speaker 10: Gaza cemeteries during military operation.
Speaker 3: Has been a lot of reporting in the Israeli pressing this.
Speaker 10: But CNN too witnessed this, you know, as it's the
Speaker 10: only way except for that kind of one CNN reporter
Speaker 10: who was able to get to a UAE run kind
Speaker 10: of field hospital has has been through kind of embedding
Speaker 10: with the IDF, and so you would expect that you're
Speaker 10: not going to get a whole lot of reporting about
Speaker 10: Israeli war crimes when you're embedding, you know, directly with
Speaker 10: the IDF. However, listen to what CNN saw as they
Speaker 10: were rolling through with Israeli forces.
Speaker 17: CNN witnessed firsthand the results of Israel's bulldozing of graveyards
Speaker 17: while embedded with Israeli forces. Last week, the armored personnel
Speaker 17: carrier CNN was traveling in drove right through this cemetery
Speaker 17: in Albrage on a freshly bulldozed dirt road.
Speaker 10: So we have, you know, one hundred and twenty minimum
Speaker 10: Palestinian civilians killed. We have the desecration of these cemeteries
Speaker 10: punching through into the Western press. We have the twenty
Speaker 10: one IDFs soldiers killed while trying to create a buffer zone,
Speaker 10: which the United.
Speaker 3: States has very explicitly said we do not approve of.
Speaker 10: And my sense is that one of the reasons that
Speaker 10: there were this rejection of this initial offer is that
Speaker 10: Hamas must feel that the war is not going very
Speaker 10: well for the IDF.
Speaker 3: But what's your read on it?
Speaker 8: Yeah, I have exactly the same read on it.
Speaker 9: And that's why I thought it was helpful to put
Speaker 9: all of those things, or for everyone to see those things.
Speaker 8: Together, because when you think about that, I have read
Speaker 8: or heard that, you know, a lot.
Speaker 9: Of those twenty one IDF soldiers who were killed were reservists.
Speaker 8: They have the family is just an awful thing.
Speaker 9: And so that question of from the perspective of Israel,
Speaker 9: is everything that we are doing in this war, if
Speaker 9: they're thinking about it like that, is everything that they're
Speaker 9: doing making is really safer now and in the long term?
Speaker 8: Is this justice? Is this making us safer?
Speaker 9: And when you look at all of that, it reminds
Speaker 9: me a lot of what we were talking about with
Speaker 9: the Houthis last week.
Speaker 8: Ryan, the Houthi's saying you, basically, we're enjoying this, you know,
Speaker 8: bring it on.
Speaker 9: You escalate the war for all we care. We wouldn't
Speaker 9: mind if you escalated the war. It's like that's not
Speaker 9: being factored factored into at least publicly. It doesn't seems
Speaker 9: that that's being factored into the is really decision making
Speaker 9: the strategy because it's like they're prosecuting a war where
Speaker 9: they expect hamas at some point what to be the
Speaker 9: word they use is annihilated.
Speaker 8: Well, hamas. You can't annihilate.
Speaker 9: Hamas like a traditional army and listen, like I'm armshare
Speaker 9: quarterbacking this from the United States and Israel knows that,
Speaker 9: but the strategy doesn't reflect it.
Speaker 8: It doesn't seem to reflect it.
Speaker 9: Because if your goal in all of these uh you know,
Speaker 9: bulldozing of cemeteries, and you know Hamas does embed itself
Speaker 9: within civilian infrastructure, but of course Gaza is tiny and
Speaker 9: densely populated and all of that. But if your goal
Speaker 9: is to annihilate Hamas and this keeps, these examples keep happening,
Speaker 9: it's going to get a lot harder, I think, to
Speaker 9: continue selling this war, not just on the international stage,
Speaker 9: but even at home as their own soldiers are dying.
Speaker 9: The further that it gets from October seventh than the
Speaker 9: sort of sense that this was a just response that's
Speaker 9: going to make us safer now and in the future,
Speaker 9: I think that gets that case gets a lot lot
Speaker 9: harder to make. The more you see Hamas sort of
Speaker 9: responding like the Huthis have You've seen like the leader
Speaker 9: of Hamas abroad say to the extent he said something
Speaker 9: to the extent of like this is going great for us,
Speaker 9: Like this is you know, since October seventh, we've realized
Speaker 9: that we can get away with a lot. They're not
Speaker 9: a traditional military, so it's it's not the same thing,
Speaker 9: and I just don't understand. I guess I understand, but
Speaker 9: I don't think it's going to be easy to sell
Speaker 9: this in the future. Right.
Speaker 10: And on the one hand, it's awfully cynical to me
Speaker 10: of Hamas leadership to refuse pauses because of the extent
Speaker 10: of the suffering that the civilian population is going through.
Speaker 3: But at the same time.
Speaker 10: Just as there seems to be no coherent strategy coming
Speaker 10: from Israel at this moment, there seems region wide to
Speaker 10: be no coherence strategy coming from the United States. There
Speaker 10: are reports now that the US believes that there will
Speaker 10: be so much pressure on shipping as a result of
Speaker 10: both the Houthi attacks and the US response, that it
Speaker 10: will raise shipping costs for China, and then China will
Speaker 10: then exert its influence on Tehran, which will then exert
Speaker 10: its influence on the Houthis and will get the Houthis
Speaker 10: to stop firing missiles at ships, which is you know,
Speaker 10: most most global strategies you talked about like that, that's absurd,
Speaker 10: Like A, China can't do that. B China isn't going
Speaker 10: to do that because because China is quite fine with
Speaker 10: US creating this gigantic morass for ourselves separately, as even
Speaker 10: Voice of America, which is the kind of the US
Speaker 10: military run news outlet, reported who these have been very
Speaker 10: clear that they will allow Russian ships and Chinese ships
Speaker 10: and any other ships that are not associated with the
Speaker 10: US or military effort US or Israeli effort in Gaza.
Speaker 3: They're letting those pass. They're letting those pass.
Speaker 10: And so the idea that you're going to get China
Speaker 10: to jump in and bail us out of our own
Speaker 10: air strikes in Yemen, and by the way, we launched
Speaker 10: air strikes yesterday on Somalia claimed self defense. There more
Speaker 10: air strikes on Yemen. We also launched air strikes at
Speaker 10: the Iraq Seri of border, and our own bombs were
Speaker 10: falling in Gaza. So if we creeped across that border,
Speaker 10: you know, that's that's five countries that we bombed in
Speaker 10: a single day, which has got to be which has
Speaker 10: got to be approaching a record, and it's leading to
Speaker 10: actual pushback in the United States Senate yesterday there was
Speaker 10: a letter we can put up this this next element
Speaker 10: here from a bipartisan group of senators Mike Mike Lee
Speaker 10: and Todd Young Republicans and Chris Murphy and Tim Kaine,
Speaker 10: who are considered to be very serious Democrats, these are
Speaker 10: these are not This is not the peace nick wing
Speaker 10: of the Democratic Party. And they write, we believe that
Speaker 10: American participation in another war in the Middle East cannot
Speaker 10: happen in the absence of authorization by Congress unless there
Speaker 10: is a need to repel a sudden attack. The Constitution
Speaker 10: requires that the United States not engage in military action
Speaker 10: absent a favorable vote of Congress. Does your administration believe
Speaker 10: there is legal rationale for a president to unilaterally direct
Speaker 10: US military action to defend ships of foreign nations.
Speaker 3: So Emily uh to.
Speaker 10: Todd Young and Mike Lee, how much pull do they
Speaker 10: have in Republican quarters? Could we see kind of a
Speaker 10: genuine bipartisan coalition coming together and pushing back here.
Speaker 9: I think we'll see a genuine bipartisan coalition, But I
Speaker 9: don't think it will matter because if you look at
Speaker 9: Senate leadership, they are they have absolutely these are not
Speaker 9: people who care about these extremely serious questions about war powers.
Speaker 9: And this is the this coalition and everything that you
Speaker 9: just read that they said is absolutely accurate. It's absurd
Speaker 9: that we are so numb to how these wars are
Speaker 9: prosecuted at this point. And Mike Lee and Todd Young
Speaker 9: are heavy hitters. They actually are, you know, well respected,
Speaker 9: well liked, serious conservatives. You know, they're not McConnell Lackey's,
Speaker 9: but they're also you know, not they're not considered you know,
Speaker 9: like media celebrities or anything like that.
Speaker 8: They're not like on Fox News every day. That's all
Speaker 8: I'm trying to say.
Speaker 9: They are serious people, and uh this that's the that's.
Speaker 8: What's really sad about this.
Speaker 9: It doesn't matter because as you know, Ryan, you've been
Speaker 9: covering this way longer than I have. The blahb always
Speaker 9: wins and these conversations about war powers. So I'm glad
Speaker 9: to see it bipartisan coalition, and I'm glad to see
Speaker 9: that it's not just sort of relegated to the fringes,
Speaker 9: you know, Matt Gates for example, speaking of the fringes,
Speaker 9: Like Matt Gates has actually been very good on this,
Speaker 9: even in relation to Somalia going back a long time.
Speaker 9: And so to have someone like Mike Lee and Todd
Speaker 9: Young making this case in the opera chamber is important
Speaker 9: and it's great. I am just so thoroughly cynical about
Speaker 9: this making much of a difference going forward, right, and.
Speaker 10: Speaking of some of these atrocities breaking through in the West.
Speaker 10: Whanted to close this segment with incredible reporting from I
Speaker 10: twenty four in an independent news outlet in the UK,
Speaker 10: which is kind of set up seventy years ago or
Speaker 10: so as sort of a competitor to BBC. They had
Speaker 10: an I twenty four cameraman in Gaza who carry had
Speaker 10: a bunch of interviews and let's let's let's roll this
Speaker 10: and I can I can narrate this for some of
Speaker 10: the people you know who aren't aren't.
Speaker 3: Able to watch.
Speaker 10: Oh correction, I will not be narrating this because this
Speaker 10: is this is a side. So let's roll this from
Speaker 10: I from this news clip from I twenty four.
Speaker 18: As he moved forwards towards the combat zone, he noticed
Speaker 18: this group of men doing their utmost to appear non threatening,
Speaker 18: trying to proceed with care. They wanted to reach two
Speaker 18: other family members and get them out of harm's way.
Speaker 19: And and had Joe a Juio and Halepens and as
Speaker 19: the house of as you didn't film but not a baluch.
Speaker 18: The interview complete. Our cameraman walked away, and then this happened.
Speaker 18: The interviewee had been shot and fatally wounded. You can
Speaker 18: see them place their flag on his chest, I mean,
Speaker 18: just have a hood. As he was carried away, the
Speaker 18: white flag was turning away.
Speaker 10: And so it's pretty self explanatory if you could hear
Speaker 10: the narrator. But you see a group of men who
Speaker 10: are waving a white flag trying to get from one
Speaker 10: one part of the area to another to help to
Speaker 10: escort out some of their other family members to safety.
Speaker 3: And then out.
Speaker 10: Of nowhere, kind of shots rang out and one of
Speaker 10: the men who was just being interviewed appears to almost
Speaker 10: die instantly. And as they're carrying him away in this
Speaker 10: indelible image, they placed the white flag as something of
Speaker 10: a bandage on his chest, and you can see the
Speaker 10: blood soaking through the white the white flag. His wife
Speaker 10: is not far away from him, and she soon after
Speaker 10: this clip and she realizes, you know, what has what
Speaker 10: has happened to her husband, who was just trying to,
Speaker 10: you know, go go help some family members.
Speaker 3: Uh she uh you know, you know, uh.
Speaker 10: Collapses into unimaginable grief. And while this while that's happening.
Speaker 10: Shots continue to ring out, and you see all these
Speaker 10: children around these men who are kind of looking left
Speaker 10: and right, trying to trying to find somewhere where they
Speaker 10: can go to hide. But it's not exactly clear, you know,
Speaker 10: where where they're getting shot from, uh, and where they
Speaker 10: can where they can where they can go, and all
Speaker 10: all the while they're trying to find some way that
Speaker 10: they could get this uh, this man who has just
Speaker 10: been shot help.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 10: This comes, of course, just a few weeks after the
Speaker 10: IDF shot and killed three is escaped a Israeli hostages
Speaker 10: who were waving a white flag, and so there doesn't
Speaker 10: seem to have been a following in that incident, any
Speaker 10: reflection whatsoever on how to respond to unarmed civilians who
Speaker 10: are wearing white flags.
Speaker 3: The fact that this aired.
Speaker 10: In a western country, in the in the UK, Emily,
Speaker 10: do you think that this type of incident has the
Speaker 10: potential to break through or are the camps just so
Speaker 10: dug in at this point that the defenders of Israel
Speaker 10: are going to continue to see catastrophes like this as
Speaker 10: the equivalent of victims of an earthquake or a hurricane.
Speaker 3: Can't really tell who's.
Speaker 8: Responsible and that was ITV and not I twenty four rate.
Speaker 10: Oh yeah, did I say I twenty four Sorry?
Speaker 9: Yeah, ITV is British, right, yes, okay, so.
Speaker 3: ITV? Sorry, thank you.
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's yes. And so again that's where I do
Speaker 9: think these these images are powerful in the Western press.
Speaker 9: And I actually think again, like I saw I was
Speaker 9: watching a podcast interview, is that the foreign leader of Hamas,
Speaker 9: who's sort of media facing. People have probably seen some
Speaker 9: of his interviews that he's done, is talking, I think,
Speaker 9: just in the last couple of days about how they've
Speaker 9: been somewhat that's the right word, surprised to see the
Speaker 9: reaction or the lack of support, the support for Palestinians
Speaker 9: in the last the lack of support for Israel in
Speaker 9: the West. And that's a good thing for Hamas, and
Speaker 9: that you can see it sort of empowers Hamas. And
Speaker 9: to that point, I'm not trying to say that that
Speaker 9: doesn't mean people should support Palestine.
Speaker 8: What I am saying is that.
Speaker 9: What he's talking about is how people are reacting I
Speaker 9: think exactly to clips like that it does. The one
Speaker 9: thing he's right about there is that does make that
Speaker 9: difficult for Israel. And listen like I don't want Hamas
Speaker 9: to be in charge of Gaza. I want to see
Speaker 9: Hamas annihilated. The idea though, that Hamas is going to
Speaker 9: be an annihilated if you just do operations like this
Speaker 9: enough where you have people with white flags, or you
Speaker 9: have where people with white flags get caught up.
Speaker 8: Or you have a civilian infrastructure.
Speaker 9: Because Hamas has some hundreds of miles now through reporting,
Speaker 9: we know hundreds of miles of tunnel.
Speaker 8: You're not going to annihilate Hamas.
Speaker 9: And then what next, say that we've talked about this
Speaker 9: right and say that is accomplished. If you annihilate Hamas,
Speaker 9: what's going to come into that vacuum that is better
Speaker 9: than Hamas?
Speaker 8: If not?
Speaker 9: You know, the United States, who's providing essential support in
Speaker 9: this war, believe in a two state solution. Yahu and
Speaker 9: the people that Yaho is answering to in his coalition
Speaker 9: do not believe in a two state solution. So actually
Speaker 9: none of this makes sense too for the future, Like
Speaker 9: the strategy, the more of these clips are played in
Speaker 9: the midst of the strategy, I think, the more difficult
Speaker 9: it does get for Israel. And that's the bottom line.
Speaker 9: Like I actually think some of these soldiers are you know,
Speaker 9: I don't want to minimize the difficulty of their situation,
Speaker 9: and I don't know, but this looks horrific. I mean,
Speaker 9: it looks horrific and likely is horrific. And so I
Speaker 9: think the longer this goes on without a really clear strategy,
Speaker 9: I think it actually also will get more difficult to
Speaker 9: continue selling to the Israeli public as a whole, because
Speaker 9: even you know, far right people, and I say that,
Speaker 9: you know, they would obviously want an escalation in the war,
Speaker 9: but even some of the people on the far right
Speaker 9: and Israel aren't happy with what the end goal seems
Speaker 9: to be.
Speaker 3: Yep, no, no doubt about that. Emily.
Speaker 10: You've got some updates on the border situation in the
Speaker 10: border negotiations, right.
Speaker 8: Yeah, absolutely, so.
Speaker 9: The Supreme Court ruled temporarily, by the way, that's an
Speaker 9: important part of this. They ruled temporarily to allow the
Speaker 9: federal government to remove razor wire on the border wall
Speaker 9: that Texas, the Government of Texas put there, and the
Speaker 9: government of Texas argued that I'm sorry, the federal government
Speaker 9: argued that the wire illegally prevented them from managing the border.
Speaker 9: And we talked last week ran about the situation with
Speaker 9: migrants who had drowned, and there was a big back
Speaker 9: and forth about the razor wire. There's a big back
Speaker 9: and forth about how Texas is stepping in to what
Speaker 9: they see as a power vacuum on the border.
Speaker 8: The federal government sort.
Speaker 9: Of allowing mass asylum claims to be made, no remain
Speaker 9: in Mexico and people crossing the Rio Grande or you know,
Speaker 9: crossing in various ways, and Texas wants to sort of
Speaker 9: step into the power vacuum. But it's created, I think,
Speaker 9: really legitimate problems. I think Texas even has to concede
Speaker 9: that these are really legitimate problems.
Speaker 8: So as a five were ruling, Amy Coney.
Speaker 9: Barrett and John and Roberts are part of the five.
Speaker 8: And again this is temporary.
Speaker 9: It's well that this is still being considered in the
Speaker 9: Fifth Circuit, so there will be more decisions on this.
Speaker 9: But the Supreme Court stepped in and said temporarily the
Speaker 9: federal government can cut this razor wire. Essentially, Tucker Carlson,
Speaker 9: we have some reaction from him. This is what Tucker tweeted.
Speaker 9: He said, So it's unanimous, everyone in power, from the
Speaker 9: White House to the hedge fund managers to the Supreme
Speaker 9: Court of the United States has decided to destroy the
Speaker 9: country by allowing it to be invaded. That leaves the
Speaker 9: population to defend itself. Where are the men of Texas.
Speaker 9: Why aren't they protecting their state and the nation? Chip
Speaker 9: Roy obviously a big Freedom Caucus guy, He called on
Speaker 9: Texas officials to just completely ignore the ruling. He said,
Speaker 9: quote they have a duty in the under the Constitution
Speaker 9: and every other normal leadership of any sovereign state to
Speaker 9: protect your citizens, period, full stop.
Speaker 8: There is no exception to that.
Speaker 9: And if the Supreme Court wants to ignore that truth,
Speaker 9: which a slim majority to Texas still had the duty,
Speaker 9: Texas leaders still have the duty do defend their people. Now,
Speaker 9: let's put this Politico headline up on the screen. This
Speaker 9: comes as a bipartisan border deal is being considered, and
Speaker 9: Chris Murphy signaled to Politico that the talks were quote
Speaker 9: largely done. What we know from that is you have
Speaker 9: Chris Murphy, Lankford, Cinema, some of these very leadership, the
Speaker 9: center right, center left people in the Senate coming together
Speaker 9: and trying to get a border package done. And what
Speaker 9: we know is that they've talked about capping daily entries.
Speaker 8: They've talked about.
Speaker 9: Restricting asylum, and they've also talked about restricting parole, which
Speaker 9: according to Politico, is one of the hot items is
Speaker 9: like what are the presidential parole authorities?
Speaker 8: That's being debated.
Speaker 9: Chris Murphy says they've kind of come together on that question,
Speaker 9: but we have absolutely no idea. What this reminds me
Speaker 9: of what we talked about with Samkadaltek last week, Ryan.
Speaker 8: The lobbying we had it. We did a segment about
Speaker 8: how the.
Speaker 9: Wealthiest caucuses and yeah, the wealthiest districts.
Speaker 8: Are the ones that are part of the you know,
Speaker 8: like bipartisan caucuses and the people.
Speaker 9: Who you know, stress cooperation and all of that and
Speaker 9: get wonderful media treatment. We actually have no idea what
Speaker 9: these centrists Chris and Cinema Langford, Chris Murphy, we have
Speaker 9: no idea what they're doing. So all of this could
Speaker 9: mean so many different things. And if it's just spending
Speaker 9: more to have more fun little drones on the border,
Speaker 9: that's not going to do a lot. If there are
Speaker 9: serious changes to asylum policy, maybe that would do more.
Speaker 8: We have no idea at.
Speaker 9: This point, and I don't think I have any trust
Speaker 9: in them that they're going to do something significant, because
Speaker 9: neither side wants.
Speaker 8: To do something significant, and what's going to happen, and
Speaker 8: it has been happening, right.
Speaker 9: I'll just recall this really brief story because of how
Speaker 9: byzantine this.
Speaker 8: Bureaucracy at the border is.
Speaker 9: Human laves are getting caught up in it, and the
Speaker 9: way that this is kicked to the courts because Congress
Speaker 9: is too afraid to act because the President has taken
Speaker 9: authorities that I think are questionable. Not talking about the
Speaker 9: cutting the razor wire. I think actually there's a legitimate
Speaker 9: dispute of constitutional powers there, and I understand what trip
Speaker 9: Roy is saying because Texas' citizens actually are really in
Speaker 9: the crosshairs of this, so it makes sense. At the
Speaker 9: same time, Texas has a federal border, so there's there's
Speaker 9: a very substantive and interesting kind of constitutional conversation happening
Speaker 9: on that level. But this is just briefly. I've told
Speaker 9: you about this rain when Title forty two was being
Speaker 9: kicked back and forth in the courts, it was such
Speaker 9: a sad and awful situation, and I actually made a
Speaker 9: border trip when that was happening. You could talked to
Speaker 9: people who were caught up in Then I talked to
Speaker 9: a kid whose name was Osnil.
Speaker 8: He's from Cuba.
Speaker 9: He had come up through Venezuela or up through Panama.
Speaker 8: Darien Gap done the whole thing.
Speaker 9: Paid some stupid amount of money for someone from Cuba,
Speaker 9: like eleven dollars. He crossed because he thought Cubans were
Speaker 9: still being let in because where Title forty two was
Speaker 9: in the courts. He got sent back because it was
Speaker 9: the day that that had changed. And then he tried
Speaker 9: to cross again because Title forty two was changing at
Speaker 9: this point in time day to day, got sent back again.
Speaker 9: There's so much confusion, and cartels are praying on the confusion,
Speaker 9: and that's I think the real sad thing about what's
Speaker 9: happening in the court system right now. Ryan, I've just
Speaker 9: talked way too long. What did you make of this
Speaker 9: decision from Monday?
Speaker 10: I don't so the Supreme Court is saying that Texas
Speaker 10: is overstepping it's authority here, but it's kind of not
Speaker 10: weighing in all the way. Congress hasn't touched this for decades.
Speaker 10: At this point. I'm curious how serious you think these
Speaker 10: negotiations are, because while the White House seems to have
Speaker 10: a significant amount of incentive to kind of go against
Speaker 10: its base and go against what it has said its
Speaker 10: values are on immigration for a very long time and
Speaker 10: cut a deal for political reasons in the in the
Speaker 10: midst of.
Speaker 3: A presidential campaign.
Speaker 10: On the flip side, it feels like Republicans don't have
Speaker 10: any incentive at all politically at least to reach a deal,
Speaker 10: and so maybe maybe some senators you know, can come
Speaker 10: together with some Democratic senators. But over on the House
Speaker 10: side and from Trump himself, it feels like letting Biden
Speaker 10: have a win on the border is something that they
Speaker 10: don't have any intention of doing. You're hearing a lot
Speaker 10: of rhetoric from House Republicans saying unless it's our full
Speaker 10: one hundred percent of our bill HR two, we're not
Speaker 10: doing anything, and we're gonna wait until we're in power,
Speaker 10: which reminds me of how Democrats have always said that
Speaker 10: they're going to do all of these things one day
Speaker 10: when they're in power.
Speaker 3: They're going to they're going to codify Roe V.
Speaker 10: Way, they're gonna they're gonna, you know, you know, all
Speaker 10: of these promises that they've made for decades. Eventually they're
Speaker 10: going to do it, So just support republic Support Democrats now,
Speaker 10: and then don't don't fight us on these issues, and
Speaker 10: then eventually, when we get enough power, then we will
Speaker 10: do the things we're promising.
Speaker 3: What's your sense of how serious.
Speaker 10: We should take House Republicans when it comes to the
Speaker 10: ability to reach a deal with Biden on the border.
Speaker 8: Yeah, you're exactly right. And it actually reminds me a
Speaker 8: lot of repeal and replace.
Speaker 3: Right there you go. Yes, we will notice it, and
Speaker 3: then we'll do it.
Speaker 10: Yeah, yeah, do it fifty times when they have no power,
Speaker 10: but zero times and they can actually do it.
Speaker 9: And again, like actually, from a political perspective, I completely
Speaker 9: understand the Freedom Caucus block, and not just the anti
Speaker 9: McCarthy block, but like the entire Freedom Caucus holding fast.
Speaker 8: To HR two because HR two is a bill.
Speaker 9: That ten years ago I think would have been non
Speaker 9: controversial because given the level of problems that there is
Speaker 9: that exists. And the New York Times and an interesting
Speaker 9: story just this week actually about how what's the real
Speaker 9: shift in immigration has been on the Democratic side. Looking
Speaker 9: at polling data, Democrats have gotten much much more favorable
Speaker 9: to lenient immigration policies than Republicans have basically stayed the same,
Speaker 9: and that's where I think I understand holding fast to
Speaker 9: HR two. It's not realistic. Democrats are not coming back
Speaker 9: to the table on HR two. But I do think
Speaker 9: there's an unreasonableness. I don't think. I don't believe that
Speaker 9: there's going to be a policy put forward. And I
Speaker 9: could be wrong, because we are told, according to Politico,
Speaker 9: that asylum is on the table, So I could be wrong,
Speaker 9: and they could have some really substantive changes to a
Speaker 9: silent policy there. But that's what I just haven't seen
Speaker 9: a will to do.
Speaker 8: And that's to me.
Speaker 9: It's not even a partisan thing. To me, it's just
Speaker 9: our assigned policies are so inhumane because they give so
Speaker 9: many people false hope. They're really good for the cartels
Speaker 9: and like they just whether you think they should be
Speaker 9: way more liberal or more restrictive, what they really need
Speaker 9: to be is clear, and I don't think either side
Speaker 9: has the ability to come to a consensus on clarity
Speaker 9: about asylum. And unless we have clarity about asylum, we
Speaker 9: can have all the razor Texas can put all the
Speaker 9: razor wire that it wants up, more people are still
Speaker 9: going to be hurt, more people are going to cross
Speaker 9: The only interesting thing I'll add is Todd Bensman, who's been.
Speaker 8: On the show before.
Speaker 9: We're reported at the New York Post that's he had
Speaker 9: a source who shared numbers with him showing that crossings
Speaker 9: have dipped significantly in the last couple of weeks. And
Speaker 9: the theory is that Biden has struck a deal with
Speaker 9: AMLO and with Mexico. According to Todd's sources, there's been
Speaker 9: a lot more enforcement within Mexico.
Speaker 8: They've really bulbed up their enforcement.
Speaker 9: And the idea is that that's a Biden your sort
Speaker 9: of deal for election purposes.
Speaker 8: If that's true, and if Mexico is.
Speaker 9: Enforcing their own policies and is being more careful about,
Speaker 9: for an example, the train that has basically been very
Speaker 9: loosely uh police, the trains that come up perry migrants,
Speaker 9: that's that's good because people need to stop taking these
Speaker 9: awful trips to the Darien gaps where they're dying, where
Speaker 9: people are being raped in masks horrific. I don't I
Speaker 9: don't know, Ryan, I don't know the I think.
Speaker 8: What we need is clarity, and I don't think we're
Speaker 8: going to get any clarity. So I'm pretty cynical in that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's cynicism on this issue.
Speaker 10: Sounds about right at this at this point, definitely from
Speaker 10: a political perspective, before we bring sagerback for a very
Speaker 10: exciting debate over Barbie and the OSCARS clarification slash possible correction,
Speaker 10: we'll see. So earlier in the show, I had said
Speaker 10: that we that we would know by tonight or tomorrow.
Speaker 10: You know a lot of who these remaining write in
Speaker 10: votes are for. Janke Yuger told Crystal apparently that he's
Speaker 10: now being told that they're not going.
Speaker 3: To release these numbers.
Speaker 10: There was pressure, you know, from Democratic Majority for Israel
Speaker 10: super Pack on the secret New Hampshire Secretary of State
Speaker 10: not to release the number of people who voted who
Speaker 10: wrote in ceasefire. The word from the New Hampshire Secretary
Speaker 10: of State, however, earlier this week, was that they would
Speaker 10: be releasing this. Figures the organizers behind that campaign believe
Speaker 10: that the law requires them to release this, but it
Speaker 10: feels like it is at this point an open question.
Speaker 10: Good reason to stick around and check the show out
Speaker 10: tomorrow morning, but without any further ado, we've got to
Speaker 10: get to Sager's thoughts on Barbie stick around for that.
Speaker 3: Okay.
Speaker 2: At the same time, the actual election analysis that everybody
Speaker 2: has been waiting for the OSCARS election. We got the
Speaker 2: official nominations yesterday and there is absolute outrage that Barbie
Speaker 2: the major I get Blockbuster, you know, Event of the
Speaker 2: last year, one of the biggest movies in a long
Speaker 2: time with original script. Although we'll get to that in
Speaker 2: terms of discussion around IP and more. While it did
Speaker 2: get a lot of Academy Award nominations, Greta Gerwig, the director,
Speaker 2: and Margot Robbie, who was both producer and really kind
Speaker 2: of like the person who got the movie off the
Speaker 2: ground as well as the lead actress, did not receive nomination,
Speaker 2: but they did get a lot of others. Let's put
Speaker 2: that up there on the screen. Thanks to our graphics
Speaker 2: team for putting this together. OSCAR nominations. So Barbie has
Speaker 2: been nominated for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress. I want
Speaker 2: to return to that one for America Ferrara, Best Supporting Actor,
Speaker 2: Ryan Gosling, Best Adapted Screenplay, Original Song. Are two original
Speaker 2: songs actually? Costume design and production design. Okay, this, like
Speaker 2: I said, has caused absolute outrage from a lot of
Speaker 2: people online, including to one of the stars of the movie,
Speaker 2: Ryan Gosling, who is very upset that he was nominated
Speaker 2: for and Best Supporting Actor. But then Margot Robbie and
Speaker 2: Greta Gerwig were spurred. Let's go put this his statement,
Speaker 2: this is what he has to stay up here, says,
Speaker 2: I am extremely honored to be nominated by my colleagues
Speaker 2: along such remark artists, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 3: But there is no Ken without Barbie.
Speaker 2: There is no Barbie movie without Greta Gerwig or Margot Robbie,
Speaker 2: the two people most responsible for this history making globally
Speaker 2: celebrated film. No recognition would be possible for anyone on
Speaker 2: the film without their talent, their grit, and their genius.
Speaker 2: To say that I am disappointed that they are not
Speaker 2: nominated in their respective categories would be an understatement against
Speaker 2: all the odds. With nothing but a couple of soulless,
Speaker 2: scantily clad and thoughtfully thankfully crossless dolls, they made us laugh,
Speaker 2: they broke our hearts, they pushed the culture, and they
Speaker 2: made history. Their work should be recognized along with the
Speaker 2: other very deserving nominees. Man It's almost like he's talking
Speaker 2: about their freaking Nobel Prize or something, not the Oscars. Emily,
Speaker 2: I definitely wanted to talk about this with you. This
Speaker 2: is being described as a feminist snub. It's a major
Speaker 2: snub of Greta Gerwig and they're like, oh my gosh,
Speaker 2: what if a man is the only person to actually win,
Speaker 2: the only person actually win an oscar out of the
Speaker 2: Barbie movie. Some people have said that would be objectively hilarious,
Speaker 2: but I want to I'm curious for your take, and
Speaker 2: then right and I will give ours.
Speaker 8: Well, thank you for letting the ladies go first. This
Speaker 8: very gentleman lead. Are your chivalry not dead?
Speaker 9: But so there's a lot to make of this, and
Speaker 9: I'm glad that we're talking about it, because, as you know,
Speaker 9: one of the I think Saguron I probably on the
Speaker 9: same page about all of the virtues of the lack
Speaker 9: of virtues of contemporary feminism. And even so, I actually
Speaker 9: really enjoyed the Barbie movie.
Speaker 8: I wrote a piece about it for the Federalists saying
Speaker 8: that it was it was in.
Speaker 9: A way reminiscent, and I don't think intentionally, I think
Speaker 9: this was probably its biggest flaw. It was reminiscent of
Speaker 9: the sort of Camille Polya take on sex and gender,
Speaker 9: this sort of biological essensualism. Men and women are different,
Speaker 9: and that's what most of the jokes in Barbie.
Speaker 8: Are going for. Now, that said, that's a really low bar.
Speaker 9: For good culture is recognizing the differences between men and
Speaker 9: women and making jokes about it. So I think the
Speaker 9: script was a little incoherent, but I thought Greta Gerwig
Speaker 9: did a good job. I think she did a best
Speaker 9: director level job. And I thought Margot Robbie was fantastic.
Speaker 9: So I don't want to steal your point, but we
Speaker 9: very much agree. It's not so much no woman was
Speaker 9: nominated because America Ferrera got the supporting nod. It really
Speaker 9: should have been Margot Robbie, and I think Greta Gerwig
Speaker 9: deserved to be up there. They had her for costume
Speaker 9: that well, they have Barbie for costume production and Best Picture,
Speaker 9: so there's a lot of Greta Gerwig.
Speaker 8: Obviously that goes into all of those things. In a way.
Speaker 9: She's very much nominated, just not in the director category.
Speaker 9: And I actually think that's what Barbie was great at.
Speaker 8: I thought the.
Speaker 9: Design aesthetically, it actually was really innovative and interesting, even
Speaker 9: if the script didn't match that level of quality. And
Speaker 9: even if, and this is a good way to toss
Speaker 9: it back to you, Sager, some of the acting and
Speaker 9: some of the writing, and I'm specifically talking about the
Speaker 9: part written for America Ferrera is absolutely insufferable in Barbie right.
Speaker 2: And that is where I'm getting really annoyed here, because
Speaker 2: people are like, oh, it's snub you know, all the
Speaker 2: women or getting my guys, America Ferrah got nominated. The
Speaker 2: scandal is that America Ferrera is the worst part of
Speaker 2: the movie. Ryan, you and I were talking about this.
Speaker 2: She's the one who gives the annoying speech about how
Speaker 2: difficult it is to be a mom or whatever, and
Speaker 2: everyone it's just like the most eye rolling part. I
Speaker 2: was in the most liberal of all theaters, and even
Speaker 2: there people were like, come on, man, like.
Speaker 10: We there were some really funny points in that speech,
Speaker 10: but it was a little bit.
Speaker 3: I had a good time.
Speaker 2: I enjoyed the movie, and I think largely it was
Speaker 2: because it was a social experience and I was around
Speaker 2: a lot of other people who were having it. You know,
Speaker 2: people were dressed up and we were laughing. It's kind
Speaker 2: of like going to the Taylor Swift movie. Is it
Speaker 2: a good movie? Obviously no, But you know when you
Speaker 2: see like nine year olds like having the time of
Speaker 2: their lives, you cannot help but imbibe like some of
Speaker 2: the some of that joy right on yourself. So I
Speaker 2: think that was part of my experience as a movie.
Speaker 8: Like, let you like the movie because it was about.
Speaker 3: Ken, Yeah, that's right exactly.
Speaker 2: I liked it because it was about using TRT in
Speaker 2: order to get the best physique possible.
Speaker 8: But my point was just right into the sun every morning.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Actually, Ken is living the health lifestyle that I want
Speaker 2: to live. But let's fly all that and let's just
Speaker 2: actually think about this. First of all, what people many
Speaker 2: misunderstand about the categories is that for Best Picture, all
Speaker 2: members of the Academy get to vote on Best Picture.
Speaker 2: For the director category, it's all the directors who are
Speaker 2: in the Academy, it's not everybody else. So it's not
Speaker 2: a surprise then that they elevate like you know, like
Speaker 2: a tour movies like genuine cinema and if we're going
Speaker 2: to put it on that category. And this is the
Speaker 2: other thing Barbie made one point four billion dollars. It's
Speaker 2: not like you don't need the best director Stamp, Greta Gerwig,
Speaker 2: You're fine. But let's also look at some of her
Speaker 2: past movies. Ladybird is a way better movie. It's actually
Speaker 2: a very good movie. Little Women even actually a sleeper.
Speaker 2: I actually that was a good movie once again. And
Speaker 2: it's one of those where people don't pay attention to
Speaker 2: the fact that the Academy is not meant to just
Speaker 2: you know, rubber stamp blockbusters people. You know, first of all,
Speaker 2: the oscars don't even matter, so like, to a certain point,
Speaker 2: this is all irrelevant. But in terms of this trying
Speaker 2: to be a cultural touchstone and all that, we do
Speaker 2: not look at Iron Man and be like, wham, this
Speaker 2: is the best film ever made. We're like, yeah, that
Speaker 2: movie made a ton of money. Yeah it was good,
Speaker 2: it was fun. And then we all just move on
Speaker 2: with our lives and we're not like, oh my god,
Speaker 2: what a scandle. You know that it wasn't denominated or whatever.
Speaker 2: And then if we're gonna think in the best Director category,
Speaker 2: and Ryan, this is where I'm curious for what you
Speaker 2: think to me. If we're gonna look at you know
Speaker 2: achievement and all that. What is more impressive. You're gonna
Speaker 2: get the most one of the most internationally recognized ips.
Speaker 2: Turn it into a good script definitely difficult, or you
Speaker 2: were going to adapt, frankly, not a very good book,
Speaker 2: which is American Prometheus, the actual biography of Jay Robert Oppenheimer.
Speaker 3: Turn it into a three.
Speaker 2: Hour bio pick and let's be honest where it drags
Speaker 2: a lot in the middle, and turn it into a
Speaker 2: nearly billion dollar blockbuster that people dressed up for. And
Speaker 2: turn into an event movie that's also historically important. That
Speaker 2: is a ten times more impressive achievement achievement. To me,
Speaker 2: Barbie would have been a hit even if it was bad.
Speaker 2: It just happened to be good. Oppenheimer, I mean, I
Speaker 2: think only Nolan could have done something like that.
Speaker 3: Ryan, what do you think to me?
Speaker 10: The oscars ought to take into con sideration how difficult
Speaker 10: it is to move from your concept to like a
Speaker 10: great film like Dustin Hoffman, like getting an Oscar for
Speaker 10: rain Man, like not that impressive, like that he's just
Speaker 10: like it's a great performance, but it was also like
Speaker 10: sign steal and delivered for an Oscar, Like he's just
Speaker 10: he's just going for it, whereas they took a ridiculous
Speaker 10: premise like we're going to like just take a commercial
Speaker 10: about like kids toys, right and turn it into a
Speaker 10: film and try to make a whole bunch of money
Speaker 10: on it, and then she somehow managed to make an
Speaker 10: actually tremendous film. Now, so I think that she got
Speaker 10: snubbed because of the giant gap between those two things.
Speaker 2: Well, when if she gets Best Picture, best picture is
Speaker 2: still in getting the guys for Margart. Robbie is a
Speaker 2: freaking producer on the movie, so is Greta Gerwig. By
Speaker 2: the way, the movie made one point four billion dollars.
Speaker 2: People are going to be just fine.
Speaker 10: But one reason okay with her getting snubbed though, is
Speaker 10: because she really flopped the landing with this like rareification
Speaker 10: of neoliberalism. But the very end with this you are
Speaker 10: you are kanough like nobody's kanough. You need you need community,
Speaker 10: you need socialization, you need friends, you need family like
Speaker 10: you need loved ones around you.
Speaker 3: Nobody is enough.
Speaker 10: And the idea that you would try to tell a
Speaker 10: whole bunch of kids that they don't need anything other
Speaker 10: than themselves, I thought was just a like horrific message
Speaker 10: at the end. Soh my politics say, you know what,
Speaker 10: she can go ahead and suffer and not.
Speaker 2: Get the okay, and then okay, let me put let's
Speaker 2: push the red button. Ken is Ryan Gosling does deliver
Speaker 2: the most range of acting in the movie. I mean, yeah,
Speaker 2: he is the best supporting character, but he's the one
Speaker 2: who's like events are happening to him, and then he
Speaker 2: has he is the one most profoundly changed by his
Speaker 2: interaction with the real world coming back and then him
Speaker 2: you know, versus Barbie the Barbie's fight back, by the way,
Speaker 2: spoiler alert for all of this for everybody who is
Speaker 2: not yet seen. But it's been several months, so I
Speaker 2: don't feel bad about it. And then you know, you know,
Speaker 2: they reached the equilibrium or whatever. Marcot Robbie is like
Speaker 2: the vehicle through which Ken has this like deeply emotional
Speaker 2: journey and all the other Kens within it. Sure, you know,
Speaker 2: she definitely delivers a great performance and it's fun. Like,
Speaker 2: don't get me wrong, but that's why if you were
Speaker 2: to think just purely in terms of acting chops, not
Speaker 2: in terms of culture and all that, I think Gosling
Speaker 2: definitely did do a better job as an actor, or
Speaker 2: at least brought more to the role. That doesn't belie
Speaker 2: the production. The fact that Margot Robbie is I think
Speaker 2: she called Gretager away. She's the one who got this
Speaker 2: script great, you know, script greenlit. She you know, helped
Speaker 2: with all that, and that's why she will share, you know,
Speaker 2: in that Oscar for the Best Picture and all that.
Speaker 3: So anyway, what do you think, Emily, Yeah, no.
Speaker 9: I agree, I would I would add to that. It's
Speaker 9: not just that Ryan Gosling. It's that the role that's
Speaker 9: is to the point Wheryan was making about Rainman, the
Speaker 9: role for Ryan Gosling was always going to be harder
Speaker 9: for him, Like it was just the way the script
Speaker 9: was written, the way that it turned out. It's just
Speaker 9: that was a harder role to play, and he did
Speaker 9: a great job. So I think Margot Robbie did a
Speaker 9: great job. I just think Goslin did a great job
Speaker 9: in a harder role. And on top of that, I
Speaker 9: was thinking, as we were talking, how funny it must
Speaker 9: have been when the Academy got the nominations back and
Speaker 9: looked at this and was like, holy right, they are
Speaker 9: like oh no, like again, like this stuff is engineered
Speaker 9: until point, but it's still voted on. And just imagine
Speaker 9: them getting this back and looking at the bar prenominations
Speaker 9: and realizing it was just gostling for uh, I mean
Speaker 9: that's actually and Growing got slip.
Speaker 3: Snopped, Maestro got nominated for Best Picture. What the hell
Speaker 3: are we doing here?
Speaker 11: All right?
Speaker 3: We like that is that movie is a travesty.
Speaker 2: It's what happens when somebody gets way too famous, Bradley Cooper,
Speaker 2: and then people start writing way too big checks and
Speaker 2: we're all just go be like, oh my gosh, what
Speaker 2: a not tour film.
Speaker 10: That's carbage A good example of a kind of movie
Speaker 10: that's just made for Oscars.
Speaker 2: No literally, yeah, I mean I think it was made
Speaker 2: for that and also for Bradley coop ego And we're like,
Speaker 2: hey man, can you do like Silver Linings play Book again?
Speaker 2: Just like something that was actually good and it hasn't
Speaker 2: been for a long time.
Speaker 8: All right?
Speaker 2: So I think this brings our discussion on the whole
Speaker 2: Oscars you know what brew haha, to a close.
Speaker 3: It will not stop, you know.
Speaker 2: Can we imagine, like the acceptance speeches are going to
Speaker 2: be so insufferable if if Ryan Gosling changing the amount
Speaker 2: of like Greta, this run is really yours or some
Speaker 2: grand standing and all that. If this is what happens before,
Speaker 2: just imagine a night of you don't.
Speaker 3: Think he's gonna win.
Speaker 8: I don't think he'll win.
Speaker 3: Who else is nominated, so we've got it? Yeah, go ahead.
Speaker 9: Well, the Girlwigsund is interesting in the extent that the
Speaker 9: Academy has also been trying to bring those like quality
Speaker 9: blockbusters back in so like maybe not nominating like the
Speaker 9: dumbest Marvel movie or whatever, but also, I mean there
Speaker 9: are some good Marvel movies. Obviously Black Panther was competitive
Speaker 9: at the Oscars, but they're saying we were swinging way too.
Speaker 8: Far in the direction like remember when they gave.
Speaker 9: The Artist Best Picture, or when someone reminded me of
Speaker 9: today women Trump went berserk because Parasite won.
Speaker 8: You just had that hilarious.
Speaker 9: So they've been trying to actually reward movies that people
Speaker 9: are watching and enjoying, and so that's part of what's
Speaker 9: interesting about this too.
Speaker 8: At the same time, there Gozzling's up against.
Speaker 9: A lot of good performances this year, and I don't
Speaker 9: think he's quite going to cut it I could be wrong.
Speaker 2: Us what I got in front of me Sterley Kate
Speaker 2: Brown for American Fiction. I haven't seen American fiction. Robert
Speaker 2: de Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon. He was
Speaker 2: incredible and Killers of the Flower Moon. Downey Junior for Oppenheimer,
Speaker 2: that's tough. I thought I didn't give a good performance,
Speaker 2: but honestly, I thought his entire arc of the film
Speaker 2: is bad. So it's like, yeah, but that part of
Speaker 2: the script for me drags tremendously.
Speaker 3: We've got Oppenheimer this year.
Speaker 8: This Academy is going to love up. The Academy is
Speaker 8: going to love Oppenheimer.
Speaker 2: Ryan Gosling for Barbie, and then Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things.
Speaker 2: Haven't seen Poor Things? Our producer Griffin says, it's an incredible,
Speaker 2: incredible movie.
Speaker 3: It's on my list.
Speaker 2: I'm definitely gonna go and watch it before the Oscar season. Anyway,
Speaker 2: I think that brings us to a close. Guys, thank
Speaker 2: you for letting me hang out and crash.
Speaker 3: Your show always was. I hope everybody enjoyed it.
Speaker 2: We've got the discount going on if you can help
Speaker 2: support all of us, and I look forward to doing
Speaker 2: this again soon.