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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting Pros's time to place your bets.

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Speaker 1: It is Me, Joey Paid Joe Piezapia, and it's time

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Speaker 1: for Championship Sunday. Many of us like this even better

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Speaker 1: than the Super Bowl. It is very overloaded, a lot

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Speaker 1: of special guests. I may or may not be singing

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Speaker 1: at the halftime show. We're still working out a guest

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Speaker 1: appearance with me and Rihanna. But we're still looking at

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Speaker 1: the last day of multiple games of football, which is

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Speaker 1: a special time here in the month of January. And

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Speaker 1: we've got two outstanding ones. So much for all the

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Speaker 1: Cinderella teams for the most part. Now brock Perdy is

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Speaker 1: still kicking the tires on that one. But we've got

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Speaker 1: four teams that are high end NFL franchises vying for

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. So not a lot of oh, look

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Speaker 1: at this team coming out of nowhere kind of stuff. No, no, no.

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Speaker 1: The Bengals have won ten straight games, while the forty

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Speaker 1: nine Ers riding a twelve game winning streak. The Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: forty nine Ers and Eagles have won fifteen games all

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Speaker 1: this season, including in the playoffs, while Cincinnati is fourteen

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Speaker 1: and four after their Sunday Divisional round win over Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: So again, this is not a time for upstarts. This

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Speaker 1: is a time for big dogs. And speaking of big dogs,

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Speaker 1: I got two with me right here, Pat fitz Morris,

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Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman here to break it all down for you.

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Speaker 1: We're going to do the deep dive in these games.

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Speaker 1: Before we do, just a quick reminder. If you're watching

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Speaker 1: this video on our YouTube channel, comment below and you

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Speaker 1: can win an opportunity to get a free upgrade to

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Speaker 1: our Betting Pros Premium package. That's right. Whether you're looking

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Speaker 1: for access to exclusive picks, the top rated player props,

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Speaker 1: or custom analysis of your own personal betting performance, Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros Premium has the tools to help you cash more bets,

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Speaker 1: play it in simple, cash more bets and if you

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Speaker 1: don't want to wait or take your chances, just go

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Speaker 1: to bettingpros dot com, slash upgrade and go ahead and

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Speaker 1: start betting smarter today, not harder. So, gentlemen, big football

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Speaker 1: games ahead of us, let's talk about them. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: about the wildcard in the NFC. This is going to

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Speaker 1: be the three o'clock game. The Eagles will host the

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Speaker 1: forty nine Ers, who meet the Cowboys nineteen to twelve

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Speaker 1: and they I don't know. I wouldn't call it an

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Speaker 1: amusing game. I would call it a football game. But

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Speaker 1: it was certainly had a lot of moments where it

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Speaker 1: did look like football. This is the Kyle Shanahan thrice

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Speaker 1: NFL title game in four years, and certainly an impressive

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Speaker 1: run with a rookie quarterback in Brock Purty and a

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Speaker 1: defense led by Nick Bosa. However, Matthew Friedman, I want

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Speaker 1: to start with this. The Philadelphia Eagles kind of blew

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Speaker 1: the doors off the New York Giants last time we

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Speaker 1: saw that, I mean thirty eight to seven. This was

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Speaker 1: a butt kicking. We got the test of brock Purty

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Speaker 1: last week with the Dallas Cowboys defense, and we saw

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Speaker 1: a different version of brock Purty that didn't look as good.

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Speaker 1: Brock Purty's also played a lot of home games of

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Speaker 1: late and good situations against lesser teams. Now he's got

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Speaker 1: to pack up, travel to the Northeast to Philadelphia to

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Speaker 1: a number one seed. Are the forty nine ers up

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Speaker 1: for this task against the Eagles? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I think so.

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Speaker 3: I will say that I've projected right now at two

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Speaker 3: and a half the sorry I've projected at one and

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Speaker 3: a half. The number in the market is two and

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Speaker 3: a half, so I don't think there's anything significantly bettable

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Speaker 3: right now. But if it moves to three, and it

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Speaker 3: has tested three a couple of times throughout the week

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Speaker 3: at a book here or there, if it hits three

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Speaker 3: across the market, I think it's a great betting opportunity.

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Speaker 3: If it just tests three a little bit, you gotta

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Speaker 3: be on your game. So I would say, you know,

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Speaker 3: set an alert in the betting pros app for San

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Speaker 3: Francisco plus three. That's what I did earlier in the week.

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Speaker 3: It hit plus three at bet MGM minus one fifteen

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Speaker 3: odds on Monday, and I bet it there. So I

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Speaker 3: think you will have these opportunities just with different books.

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Speaker 3: They get enough money, they'll test three to see if

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Speaker 3: they meet resistance, they will get forty nine ers money

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Speaker 3: and they will move back to two and a half.

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Speaker 3: So it stays at two and a half. I don't

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Speaker 3: think you bet it at three. I think you bet it.

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Speaker 3: And yes, the brock party experience wasn't as great last

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Speaker 3: week as it was in previous weeks, but I don't know.

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Speaker 3: We've seen eight games now a brock party is the

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Speaker 3: primary passer for the forty nine ers, and that's basically

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Speaker 3: half of a season's worth of data at this point, Like,

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Speaker 3: I think we've seen enough to be able to say, Okay,

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Speaker 3: brock Perdy isn't like the greatest quarterback in the NFL,

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Speaker 3: but he is good enough within the Kyle Shanahan scheme

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Speaker 3: for them to run the offense the way that they

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Speaker 3: want to run the offense. And his seven starts, so

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Speaker 3: that's including the playoffs, the forty nine Ers have been

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Speaker 3: number one in offensive EPA per play like it's and

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Speaker 3: it's a seven game sample that is not insignificant, Like

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Speaker 3: they can run their offense the way that they want to,

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Speaker 3: and they have the number one defense in the league. Like,

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Speaker 3: I'm not gonna say the forty nine Ers should be

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Speaker 3: favored in this spot because there are a number of

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Speaker 3: edges that do point towards the Eagles, so namely being

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Speaker 3: at home, having an extra day of rest, not having

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Speaker 3: played the week before that, so there's still like some

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Speaker 3: residual freshness that's built into this. You know, the Eagles

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Speaker 3: as home favorites are nine to four to one against

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Speaker 3: the spread under Nick Sirianni, so like, yeah, all of

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Speaker 3: that is good, But kylein Shanahan, this is his spot

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Speaker 3: as a road underdog. He's twenty and ten against the

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Speaker 3: spread for his career, Like, this is the Shanahan spot.

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Speaker 3: And you know Jalen Hurts, he's great, but he's still

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Speaker 3: dealing with his shoulder injury. Lane Johnson he's great, but

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Speaker 3: he's still dealing with a groin injury. Going against Nick Bosa,

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Speaker 3: who's probably the defensive player of the year. I think

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Speaker 3: the forty nine ers are the spot here. When it

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Speaker 3: hits three, I think you bet it interesting.

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Speaker 1: I wonder if we could kind of just take out

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Speaker 1: brock Perty's name and find some footage of you from

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Speaker 1: a couple of years ago saying the exact same thing

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Speaker 1: about Jimmy Garoppolo just enough to win. Probably kind of

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Speaker 1: feels like it right fits this number open at two

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Speaker 1: and a half. It is still two and a half

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Speaker 1: right now. As Matthew Friedan was alluding to Papolo's attention

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Speaker 1: to see if it moves anymore, forty five and a

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Speaker 1: half is the over under. If you like San Francisco

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Speaker 1: for the upset, it is over on the money line,

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Speaker 1: right now at plus one twenty six. Yesterday it's plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five and the consensus today, so not too

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Speaker 1: muche there. How do you see this game shaking out here, Fitz?

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Speaker 1: Because I have immediately gone and just put the two

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Speaker 1: teams I like together in a little parlay here, and

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Speaker 1: I went right with the Eagles, and I went right

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Speaker 1: with the Bengals. So spoiler alert, and goodness knows, I

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Speaker 1: was very hyper excited about the Bengals last week and

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Speaker 1: made a lot of money on them. But the point

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Speaker 1: is this, let's talk about it. The Eagles are really good.

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Speaker 1: Are we not giving the Eagles enough credit? Especially when

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts is right? Because I think we kind of

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Speaker 1: forgot about how good that Eagles team could be for

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Speaker 1: a couple weeks because we've watched Gardner Minshew for a

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks. A little bit of rest, a little

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Speaker 1: bit of reset, and this team came out and just

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Speaker 1: absolutely obliterated Giants team that was pretty hot, regardless of

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Speaker 1: all the road warrior narrative that they had. They got

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Speaker 1: absolutely embarrassed there in the national stage there by a

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Speaker 1: team that they are very familiar with. They got obliterated.

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Speaker 1: So I feel like the Eagles are kind of on

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Speaker 1: cruise control right now, and as good as the fort

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Speaker 1: Niners have played, I think this is a tall for

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Speaker 1: them to go across the country and win this football game.

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Speaker 1: But that being said, do you think it's the two

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Speaker 1: and a half. Do you think it's the money line

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Speaker 1: and put it with something else to make more money? Like,

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Speaker 1: how do you see this game here with the Eagles

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Speaker 1: and forty nine ers.

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Speaker 2: I'm kind of with you on the Eagles, Joe.

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Speaker 4: I do think as evenly matched as these teams are,

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Speaker 4: and not just the Eagles and forty nine Ers, but

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Speaker 4: you know, all the remaining teams. If you look at

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Speaker 4: the look ahead lines of possible Super Bowl matchups right

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Speaker 4: now on DraftKings, as I was doing before this show,

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Speaker 4: they are all within a point and a half of

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Speaker 4: each other no matter what the matchup is, and some

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Speaker 4: of them are juiced toward the underdog with those already

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Speaker 4: tight spreads. So people see this, you know, as basically

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Speaker 4: all four of these teams being on very equal footing

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Speaker 4: to some extent, I agree, but I think Philly maybe

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Speaker 4: does have the most complete team right now, and two

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Speaker 4: fascinating matchups. I mean, you've got on the When the

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Speaker 4: Eagles have the ball, they have the umber one rushing

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Speaker 4: DVOA and they're going against a forty nine ers defense

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Speaker 4: that is second in DVA against the run. Great matchup there,

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I want to drill down on the Brock

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Speaker 4: Party thing. And you know Friedman mentioned the Brock Party experience.

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Speaker 4: I believe that's a garage band in ames Iowa if

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Speaker 4: I'm not. But so we talked about this a little.

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Speaker 2: On last week.

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Speaker 4: So how Purdy had not faced in any of his

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Speaker 4: previous six starts, or in the seventh game where he

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Speaker 4: played a lot after Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt very early.

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Speaker 4: He had not faced a team that was top twelve

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Speaker 4: in DVOA against the pass and Dallas was third, and

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Speaker 4: we saw Purdy I won't say struggle, but he posted

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Speaker 4: his lowest passer rating of any of his starts so

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Speaker 4: far this year eighty seven point four, which isn't terrible, but.

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Speaker 1: In no big throws in big spots. Kittle had that

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Speaker 1: babble catch that if it didn't go that way and

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Speaker 1: if he dropped that ball, maybe we're talking a little differently,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, but there were he definitely I won't

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Speaker 1: give him credit. He did make a couple throws, but

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Speaker 1: you're right, it was a significant difference to the guy

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Speaker 1: that we saw in the previous games.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he was functional and mostly he was mistake free,

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Speaker 2: no interceptions, and he only took two sacks. But it's

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Speaker 2: going to be a chore for him to stay mistake

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Speaker 2: free against this Eagles defense. I think, because this Eagles

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Speaker 2: d the pass rush is unbelievable. They have seventy sacks

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Speaker 2: this year. The next highest team in sacks fifty five.

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Speaker 2: They've got four guys with double digit sacks this season,

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Speaker 2: Hassan Reddick, Javon Hargreave, Josh Sweat, and Brandon Graham.

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Speaker 4: I mean, they are going to come at Rock Party

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Speaker 4: from all angles. And then in the back end they've

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Speaker 4: got the dynamic twooid cornerback of Darius Slay and James Bradberry.

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Speaker 2: They are possibly going to be without Avonte Maddox.

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Speaker 4: Their slot corner is questionable, but still just you know,

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Speaker 4: airtight secondary, great pass rush.

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Speaker 2: So they are going to put Purdy to the test.

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Speaker 4: You know, maybe San Francisco committigate that pass rush if

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Speaker 4: they can run the ball successfully. But both of the

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Speaker 4: forty nine Ers running backs Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell

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Speaker 4: are dealing with soft tissue injuries right.

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Speaker 1: The CAF issue specifically is very troubling to me because

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Speaker 1: that is a lingering issue and one that could pop

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Speaker 1: up at any moment. Now, it's not gonna be Look

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Speaker 1: at this area where I am not too far from Philly,

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Speaker 1: only an hour it's going to be you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: fifty degrees here, so it's not super cold or anything

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Speaker 1: like that. But the calf injury we've seen many times,

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Speaker 1: that is one that's very tricky sometimes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell as a groin injury,

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Speaker 2: So that's gonna be key, Like are they going to

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Speaker 2: be able to I'm sure the forty nine ers would

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Speaker 2: love to run the ball, but are they going to

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Speaker 2: be able to do it with these running backs? Maybe

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Speaker 2: not at full capacity. So I am going to bet

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Speaker 2: the Eagles this weekend, and you.

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Speaker 4: Know, it's maybe one of those games I just avoid

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Speaker 4: if it weren't for the fact that we're down to

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Speaker 4: you know, three NFL games left in the season, and

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Speaker 4: that feel pretty much bet all.

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Speaker 1: Wait to bet it. No, no avoiding for me. I'm

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Speaker 1: all in. Let's go. Let's I'm letting it ride. I'm

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Speaker 1: still on a high from last week. Let's talk on

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts for at home two in a second, because

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Speaker 1: fourteen touchdowns, four picks, one h three passer rating at

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Speaker 1: home this year. Obviously they were seven and one at home,

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Speaker 1: but you know, he has really been the better version

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Speaker 1: of himself in this building. Philly's a tough place to

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Speaker 1: play too. I mean I lived in Philadelphia for four

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Speaker 1: years in college and a couple of years after, and

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Speaker 1: it's a tough environment.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: I saw more David Akers jerseys, let me just put

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Speaker 1: you out I than I saw Donovan McNabb jerseys when

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Speaker 1: I was there. Like it was it was a tough

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Speaker 1: down to get over. They are over this group, this

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Speaker 1: this town loves this team. They show up, they are excited.

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Speaker 1: You had fans who bought tickets for I don't know

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Speaker 1: it was the lacrosse game or whatever it was ahead

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Speaker 1: of time. Did you see this, Like they couldn't get

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Speaker 1: into the parking lot at a certain time, so they bought

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Speaker 1: tickets for that so they can get in early to tailgate.

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Speaker 1: That's the kind of commitment you get with certain fan

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Speaker 1: bases the Eagles are going to have that what is

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Speaker 1: the environment potentially and the environment being a player where

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts is very comfortable Friedman, but also the fan

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Speaker 1: base is a little different. This is not you know,

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Speaker 1: the bougie white wine drinking kind of San Francisco, you

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Speaker 1: know kind of environment here. This is the exact opposite

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Speaker 1: of that. We're drinking Yengling's, we're hanging out, we're eating

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Speaker 1: cheeseteaks at three in the morning. That's this environment. It's

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Speaker 1: a very different crowd, a very different environment. How do

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Speaker 1: you think that the San Francisco for diners specifically party

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Speaker 1: will deal with that?

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Speaker 3: I mean it's it's a road game in in the playoffs,

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Speaker 3: Conference championship Eagles, Like, yeah, that that's gonna be a

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Speaker 3: pretty jazzed up I don't know why I use that phrase,

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Speaker 3: jazz up. I've never used that phrase in.

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Speaker 1: My life, but well know, I'm so grateful you did.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's gonna be a very jazzed up crowd there.

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Speaker 1: Oh use it twice. So we put this social please like.

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Speaker 3: It'll be fairly hostile, but like, I don't know if

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Speaker 3: it's going to be significantly more hostile than any other

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Speaker 3: road stadium would be given the stakes of what they

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Speaker 3: have going here, Like it's a trip to the super Bowl,

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Speaker 3: like any any home team is going to have the

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Speaker 3: full support of their crowd in that game. So I

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Speaker 3: don't think it's playing in Philly versus playing somewhere else.

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Speaker 3: I don't think it's that big of a deal. I

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Speaker 3: would say, what might be a little more of a

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Speaker 3: factor as if there is any like inclement weather, cause

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Speaker 3: it's you know, like it's Philly in January, Like that

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Speaker 3: could be a bigger thing than if it's like, oh,

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Speaker 3: you're playing in the Cowboys home stadium or something like that.

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Speaker 3: But even then, I don't think the weather is going

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Speaker 3: to be that big of a deal because like brock

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Speaker 3: Purty played at Iowa State, like he's used to cold weather,

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Speaker 3: So like, I don't think that's.

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Speaker 2: Not even cold.

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Speaker 1: Told it's gonna beautiful. It's gonna be fifty two degrees

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Speaker 1: a kickoff.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So like if it were a typical like cold

288
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Speaker 3: weather Philly game, then I'd be like, Okay, yeah, maybe

289
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Speaker 3: maybe that's a challenge for the road quarterback, But we

290
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Speaker 3: don't even have that going against party in this spot.

291
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Speaker 3: So I don't think the road factor is much of

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Speaker 3: a significant thing, like relative to any other stadium that

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Speaker 3: they would be playing in.

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Speaker 1: The Link is a loud place, is a tough place.

295
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Speaker 1: It's a fan base that is going to be ready

296
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Speaker 1: for this. Like I said, it's not the same as

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Speaker 1: going to play a game against the Chargers, you know,

298
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Speaker 1: or some of those There are still some places out

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Speaker 1: there they really are not great. I would say representative

300
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Speaker 1: fan bases in their buildings where it makes a big

301
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Speaker 1: factor and a big difference. Philadelphia, I still think is

302
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Speaker 1: one of those places. I mean, the Phillies proved that

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Speaker 1: over that stretch too. It's just it can be a

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Speaker 1: very tough place and I think there's gonna be a

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Speaker 1: real test. I'm gonna give Purty a lot of credit

306
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Speaker 1: if he can get past this and get this team

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Speaker 1: to the super Bowl, especially with both those running backs

308
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Speaker 1: with injuries. So standalone betting on this game, how do

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Speaker 1: you feel about the over under fits when we take

310
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Speaker 1: a look at this number. I want to get your

311
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Speaker 1: opinion on that. The number is forty six and a half.

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Speaker 1: Are you over understaying away? Where are you?

313
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Speaker 2: I'm a little bit on the under here.

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Speaker 4: I've got it projected at forty six, and as I mentioned,

315
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Speaker 4: like that pass rush going against Rock Purty making things

316
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Speaker 4: difficult for him. I kind of don't see the forty

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Speaker 4: nine ers lighting up the scoreboard. And I'd be pretty

318
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Speaker 4: surprised if the Eagles crested thirty points in this game too.

319
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Speaker 4: You know, I kind of think this one's going to

320
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Speaker 4: be maybe in the low twenties, you know, maybe something

321
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Speaker 4: like a twenty four seventeen type of game.

322
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Speaker 2: Yeah. I kind of like the under here. Both of

323
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Speaker 2: these defenses are fantastic.

324
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Speaker 1: How about you, Freeman, where are you at with the

325
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Speaker 1: over under number?

326
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I've just projected at forty seven point two, so

327
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Speaker 3: I'm slightly to the over, But like I gotta say,

328
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Speaker 3: I'm not I'm not betting it, like I just I

329
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Speaker 3: want to avoid overs in the spot In the postseason

330
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Speaker 3: outdoor unders are ninety six, seventy five and four against

331
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Speaker 3: this bread for like the past twenty years. This has

332
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Speaker 3: been the most profitable season for the past twenty years

333
00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:09,760
Speaker 3: for unders betters. So you know, the divisional round underwent

334
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,080
Speaker 3: four to oh last week. I don't know, like I

335
00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,040
Speaker 3: can see the bullcase for the over the rock Perty

336
00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:17,360
Speaker 3: since he's been the starter the forty nine ers or

337
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Speaker 3: number one in offensive EPA Jalen Hurts his number three

338
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:24,280
Speaker 3: in composite EPA and completion percentage over expectation. Like, both

339
00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,480
Speaker 3: of these teams in the vacuum can put up points,

340
00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,440
Speaker 3: but both of them have top four defenses, So like

341
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Speaker 3: this could turn into a slow paced, ground based type

342
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,920
Speaker 3: of game, and I just don't really want to have

343
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Speaker 3: any exposure to that.

344
00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:38,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's see what kind of exposure you want to.

345
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:42,640
Speaker 1: The AFC Wildcard Game, Cincinnati travels to Kansas City. The

346
00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:45,840
Speaker 1: Chiefs reached the AFC Championship for the fifth consecutive season

347
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Speaker 1: with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Very impressive, no doubt

348
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Speaker 1: about that. Impressive to the guts and guile of Patrick

349
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Speaker 1: Mahomes dealing with that high ankle's brain coming back, having

350
00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:59,360
Speaker 1: that big time moment there, crowd gets excited and you know,

351
00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:01,840
Speaker 1: he ran when he had to. He did the best

352
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Speaker 1: he could. But high angles brains are no joke. We

353
00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,400
Speaker 1: get all the information that Andy Reids saying, he's doing

354
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,560
Speaker 1: all the normal practice things and in case AC you're asking,

355
00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:12,560
Speaker 1: I might have to even pull him back from a

356
00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:16,040
Speaker 1: few things. That's what he's saying so far, Kelsey was incredible.

357
00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,840
Speaker 1: Fourteen catches for ninety eight and two touchdowns. In that game,

358
00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,159
Speaker 1: Cincinnati took it to the Bills. The Bills had no

359
00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,679
Speaker 1: answer for Joe Burrow. They had no answer for the

360
00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:30,320
Speaker 1: defense of the Cincinnati Bengals at all. Joe Burrow is

361
00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,000
Speaker 1: now five and one in the postseason and the defense

362
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:34,960
Speaker 1: has been a real difference maker, ten game winning straight

363
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,600
Speaker 1: here on late. The Cincinnati has beat Kensady three times

364
00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,480
Speaker 1: in the last two seasons. By the way, too, and

365
00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:42,960
Speaker 1: the Chiefs I've struggled with Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow seventy

366
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:46,080
Speaker 1: two percent completion percentage in his passes on average three

367
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Speaker 1: twenty seven with eight touchdowns. He actually is the highest

368
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,680
Speaker 1: QB rating of his career against the Kansas City Chiefs

369
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:54,960
Speaker 1: of any team he's played. Fun fact there, you gotta

370
00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,840
Speaker 1: love that. So Joe Burrow feels like no moment is

371
00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:01,880
Speaker 1: too big for him. Patrick Mahall certainly is a warrior,

372
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,920
Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. This is a fascinating contest here.

373
00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:09,200
Speaker 1: It's practically a pickham. We had this game open up

374
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 1: at one. State is at one right now. Over on

375
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:17,280
Speaker 1: the Kansas City side plus one. Now here's my question

376
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:18,879
Speaker 1: to you guys here, forty seven and a half is

377
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:22,800
Speaker 1: the over under. I'm getting even money on Kansas City fits.

378
00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 1: Let's start with you on this one. We know Patrick Mahomes,

379
00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:30,320
Speaker 1: great leader, incredible performance, There's a lot of adrenaline in

380
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:34,240
Speaker 1: that moment in what's going on. We're now days after

381
00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:37,280
Speaker 1: this injury. How much of that limitation is going to

382
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,159
Speaker 1: take effect on how you approach this game and the

383
00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:42,560
Speaker 1: wagering in it because these two teams are very close.

384
00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:45,119
Speaker 1: It is a road game for the Cincinnati Bengals, but

385
00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:47,399
Speaker 1: they proved last year they are road warriors in that sense.

386
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,160
Speaker 1: No spot really intimidates them, and they have so much

387
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:53,360
Speaker 1: confidence going into Kansas City. What's your take on all

388
00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:55,560
Speaker 1: these factors going into this game because there are a

389
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:56,880
Speaker 1: lot of things to play.

390
00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, and mahomes injury is really the big one. Joe

391
00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:04,480
Speaker 4: and I am kind of shocked that the Bengals are

392
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:09,520
Speaker 4: favored in this one in Kansas City. And I asked

393
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:14,399
Speaker 4: our injury expert at Fantasy Pros, doctor d Pacchona, what

394
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 4: he thought about this and how it might affect Mahomes,

395
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:21,920
Speaker 4: and he said that we might see some limitations for Mahomes,

396
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:25,919
Speaker 4: especially moving outside the pocket. Straight line movement should be

397
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,680
Speaker 4: reasonably well tolerated, but changing direction and accelerating will probably

398
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 4: be most affected. I think that he'll they'll limit it'll

399
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,920
Speaker 4: limit his rushing potential when the play breaks down.

400
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 2: But you know, he said he saw.

401
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,080
Speaker 4: Mahomes have a little bit difficulty, a little bit of

402
00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:47,639
Speaker 4: difficulty planting when he threw last week, and he expects

403
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 4: that to be improved by Sunday. And he thinks Mahomes

404
00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,280
Speaker 4: is gonna be able to move around relatively well in

405
00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:57,160
Speaker 4: the pocket, you know, and adding his ability to throw

406
00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 4: from different arm angles. Doctor Chonah did not expect to

407
00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:05,160
Speaker 4: see much of a limitation on Mahomes, but he didn't

408
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:09,879
Speaker 4: mention the possibility, although not likely, if someone hits Mahomes

409
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,400
Speaker 4: or lands on his ankle, all bets are off.

410
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,640
Speaker 1: Of course, there's also a weakness there too, as somebody

411
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:17,879
Speaker 1: who's had a high ankle's brain in their life before.

412
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:20,840
Speaker 1: The re injury factor is very high. Because I did that,

413
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 1: and I was told that was actually a very common thing.

414
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 1: That you think it's feeling better and then it's there's

415
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:29,480
Speaker 1: a weakness there for quite some time afterwards. The Joe

416
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,440
Speaker 1: Burrow situation too. You know, going into Buffalo being that team,

417
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 1: does it feel to you fit's that you're getting a

418
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:40,679
Speaker 1: Bengals team that is just so confident in itself and

419
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 1: a Chiefs team that has all these expectations, and a

420
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,679
Speaker 1: Bengals team that, again nobody thought they would be back

421
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 1: and nobody thought they would be there. They got off

422
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:50,119
Speaker 1: to a slow start and they's like, uh huh, I

423
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 1: hear you, and then they're coming out and kicking ass

424
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,000
Speaker 1: and taking names. Again. Basically, let's call what it is.

425
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 1: Do we not give the Bengals enough current? Maybe? I mean,

426
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,640
Speaker 1: I know the line is but at the same time,

427
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:02,919
Speaker 1: the Bengals seemed like a really dangerous team. And it

428
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,959
Speaker 1: feels like the tension is all on Kansas City and

429
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 1: all the confidence is over on Cincinnati. That's how I

430
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:11,639
Speaker 1: see it. But how do you feel about that emotional

431
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 1: state of these two teams right now?

432
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 4: No question, the Bengals have a certain Genna sa quah

433
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 4: about that.

434
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 2: Joe, yeah, and I mean they are.

435
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 4: Definitely feeling confident, and you know, like they have taken

436
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 4: hits and been unfazed. They lost Chidobi o Wuzie in

437
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 4: their secondary and their past defense has been fantastic without

438
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 4: one of the better corners in the NFL. Last they

439
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,879
Speaker 4: lost two starters on the offensive line on top of

440
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 4: Lael Collins who had gotten hurt in Week thirteen or whatever,

441
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 4: so they're down three offensive starters. They pushed around the

442
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 4: Buffalo Bills defensive line last week. I mean, Bill's lineman

443
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 4: looked like they were on roller skates at times last week,

444
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 4: and maybe the snow helped with that or whatever, but

445
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:56,200
Speaker 4: clearly like those guys were fired up and well coached

446
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 4: and had a great game plan. So yeah, I mean,

447
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:02,159
Speaker 4: they're playing with a lot of confidence. But at the

448
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,679
Speaker 4: same time, Joe like, I mean, I do find it

449
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:08,399
Speaker 4: kind of interesting that, obviously the Mahomes injury has weighed

450
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 4: heavily into this point spread, but betters and the betting

451
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 4: market seem completely unperturbed by those Bengals offensive line injuries.

452
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 4: And no, they didn't really come into play last week,

453
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 4: but maybe they come into play this week, and maybe

454
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 4: if we get a dry field in Kansas City where

455
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,199
Speaker 4: the defense has a little bit better footing, and it's

456
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,439
Speaker 4: supposed to be cold in Kansas City this weekend, like

457
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 4: seventeen degrees, but no precipitation. Maybe we see that offensive

458
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 4: line struggle a little bit more. And yeah, I don't know.

459
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 4: The Chiefs had fifty five sacks, so they were a

460
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 4: distant second behind the Eagles and sacks this past year

461
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 4: or this past regular season. They can absolutely get out

462
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 4: after the quarterback fifth highest pressure rate. Bengals gave up

463
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,360
Speaker 4: forty sacks, tied for eleventh.

464
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 2: True. So yeah, it's really an.

465
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 4: Interesting match up here, Joe, and I do think the

466
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,879
Speaker 4: Bengals are Legit wouldn't surprise me at all if they

467
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 4: won this game.

468
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 2: That said, I'm kind of on the other side here.

469
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 1: All right, Freeman, you've been patiently waiting assessing this game

470
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:23,120
Speaker 1: for several days now. How do you feel this one

471
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,679
Speaker 1: shapes up? What is your approach on this side? Again,

472
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 1: the number is one over on the side where the

473
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs are one point underdogs at home. Forty

474
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:35,919
Speaker 1: seven is the number if you like the Chiefs on

475
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 1: the money line, it's even money. What's your approach?

476
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 3: This is a really intriguing line here, and it opened

477
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 3: so there are different ways of thinking about how how

478
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 3: lines open. Different books release lines at different times. But

479
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 3: the first book to put this line out there had

480
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 3: it Kansas City minus three, and very quickly, like within

481
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,919
Speaker 3: the matter of minutes, this got bet to two and

482
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 3: then to one and a half in one and then

483
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 3: it slowly flipped to the other side, with Cincinnati favored.

484
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,360
Speaker 3: But you know, when I saw on Sunday that this

485
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 3: was Kansas City minus one, I bet that immediately because

486
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 3: I thought that that was.

487
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 1: A wild number.

488
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 3: That was certainly a mistake, not like a mistake in

489
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 3: terms of like the book said it wrong, but that

490
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 3: the market, you know, kind of short term, was making

491
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 3: a mistake and was reading too much into the Mahomes injury,

492
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 3: and that this would move back towards Kansas City. I

493
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 3: didn't know if it would get to Kansas City minus three,

494
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,719
Speaker 3: but I thought, this is going to move my direction

495
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 3: towards Kansas City.

496
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 1: It's so funny you said that too, because, like my

497
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:43,360
Speaker 1: initial in sects, as soon as I saw the Bengals

498
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,400
Speaker 1: were underdogs, I bet it on the money line. I said, yep,

499
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 1: let's go, And now I'm so glad I did because

500
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 1: it's moved so far in the other direction. It's so

501
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 1: funny how we can all see them in a different ways.

502
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:53,680
Speaker 1: So that being said, now that you have it where

503
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 1: it is, doesn't move further at all in the next

504
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 1: few days.

505
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 3: Well, this, I think, I think the this is a headfake.

506
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 3: I will just say that. So like there are there

507
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 3: are betting groups that put millions of dollars in play

508
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 3: and have access to a ton of accounts, and every

509
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 3: once in a while a situation comes up where they

510
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 3: fake out the books to set up a move at

511
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 3: the end of the week, and so early in the

512
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 3: week when limits are lower, right, let's say, like ten

513
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 3: thousand to thirty thousand dollars at sportsbooks, they will max

514
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 3: out a bet in different accounts and move the line

515
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 3: in one direction. And it feels like that is what

516
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 3: has happened here and then now because this got to

517
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 3: Cincinnati minus two and a half at one point. And

518
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 3: by the way, if you did not tease at that

519
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 3: point Kansas City up to plus eight and a half,

520
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 3: in San Francisco up to eight and a half, you

521
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 3: are un American. I don't know what to say. I

522
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 3: don't know what else to say if you did not

523
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 3: do that, because that was like, that is this week.

524
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 3: What the teaser was last week where everyone was teasing

525
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 3: Philly and teasing Kansas City, like just everyone was doing that.

526
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 3: We are perfectly. We were perfectly in that zone of

527
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 3: teasing through two key numbers with San Francisco and the

528
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 3: Chiefs arguably the better teams, like you know, so that

529
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,360
Speaker 3: was perfect. That opportunity is gone because it has now

530
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 3: moved from as you mentioned, Cincinnati two and a half

531
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 3: back to Cincinnati favored just by one, So that teaser

532
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 3: opportunity is now gone. I think this will continue to

533
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 3: move to Kansas City. I think if the books weren't

534
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 3: set up by sharp groups with these early week moves

535
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 3: getting it all the way to two and a half,

536
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 3: even if they weren't set up by that move, they're

537
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 3: starting to take money on Kansas City because that is

538
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 3: the only reason why they would move the line back

539
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 3: towards Kansas City. Starting to take more and more money

540
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 3: on the Chiefs, and as we get more news of

541
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes like practicing Patrick Mahomes continuing to look good,

542
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,360
Speaker 3: they I believe, will continue to take more and more

543
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 3: Kansas City money. So if you like Kansas City, I

544
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 3: think you bet them now because that number is only

545
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 3: going to move towards Kansas City. And I also have

546
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,439
Speaker 3: to say I think there was a massive overreaction in

547
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 3: this line to what we saw out of Cincinnati last week. Like, Joe,

548
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:16,439
Speaker 3: you were on Cincinnati. I like Cincinnati. I know Fitz

549
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 3: was on Buffalo, so maybe for him it's a little

550
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 3: more of an adjustment. But I wasn't really surprised by

551
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 3: what we saw out of Cincinnati last week. Now, the

552
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:27,919
Speaker 3: offensive line issues that they had, I didn't think that

553
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 3: they would be exploited by the Bills defensive line. This,

554
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 3: as Fitz mentioned, is a different defensive line for the Chiefs.

555
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 3: They have the guys to exploit the weaknesses now that

556
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:42,360
Speaker 3: the Bengals have in the offensive line. So I am

557
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 3: very much on Kansas City in this spot. I think

558
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 3: Mahomes is.

559
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:46,720
Speaker 1: Going to play.

560
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 3: Andy Reid already said basically on Sunday that it was

561
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 3: likely Mahomes was going to play. We saw Mahomes finish

562
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 3: the end of the game on Saturday with the ankle. Now,

563
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 3: I know, like they're swelling and so fine, recovery time

564
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,880
Speaker 3: or whatever. But you know, instead of it being seven days,

565
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 3: they have that extra day, they have the eighth day

566
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 3: for him to rest with an ankle injury. That extra

567
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 3: day actually makes a pretty big difference.

568
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 1: So I think it was so many of the high

569
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 1: ankles this year. I mean, that was like the that

570
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 1: was the injury du jour this year in the fantasy community. Right.

571
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,199
Speaker 1: These guys missed months at times with these injuries. And

572
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 1: I understand the quarterback positions very different than say the

573
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,359
Speaker 1: running back position or the wide receiver position. However, with

574
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,959
Speaker 1: the way Patrick Mahomes plays quarterback too, and the athleticism

575
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 1: he brings to that position, does it limit him at

576
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 1: the very least of what he can do? Is that

577
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 1: a danger of falling into the other track of saying, ah,

578
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 1: you know what, He's gonna be fine to take it up.

579
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: He's a tough guy, all this stuff. He already came

580
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 1: back and played from it. But what is the limitations

581
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 1: on his game? Because so much of Patrick Holmes's game

582
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 1: is about extending time in the pocket. It is maneuvering around,

583
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 1: it's making these trick throws, it's doing these things that

584
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 1: are inhuman. When you make him more human, does that

585
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 1: make him a little less appealing to invest in?

586
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, certainly, I mean I imagine will be limited. He

587
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 3: won't be able to do all of the Patrick mahomesy

588
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 3: and type of things. But they have a week to

589
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 3: prepare for that, like they know that, and they are

590
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 3: going against an opponent that they have played three times

591
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 3: in the past thirteen months. Like they have a pretty

592
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 3: good sense of what they're going to get out of

593
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 3: the Bengals defense. So even though it is an injured

594
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes, it's still Patrick Mahomes. Like even if he

595
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 3: had no scrambling ability, he would probably still be the

596
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 3: best pocket passing quarterback in the NFL. So anything under three,

597
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 3: I think this is highly bedable for Kansas City.

598
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 1: Okay, so what about this forty seven here? Fits We're

599
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 1: at the number of forty seven. What are your thoughts

600
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 1: on this one? Do you think with the call, with

601
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 1: the sacks, with the limitations potentially on the they can

602
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 1: get to this number. I mean, it's not a huge number.

603
00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 1: Forty seven to me feels like an over. But worre

604
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 1: you with it? One?

605
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, it seems like this is being brought down by

606
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 4: the Mahomes injury and maybe to some extent, those Bengals

607
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 4: offensive line injuries. So I'm kind of on the over.

608
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 4: As I told Freeman before the Freedman before the show,

609
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 4: that I am heavily invested in the premise that Patrick

610
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 4: Mahomes is still going to be really good this week,

611
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 4: and if he's not, I'm going to lose a lot

612
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 4: of money because I'm betting the Chiefs.

613
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 2: I'm betting the over. I'm betting the Patrick Mahomes over

614
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 2: on yardage which normally you see in the low three

615
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 2: hundreds and is it two seventy three point five? Last

616
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 2: I checked?

617
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 4: And here was an interesting beat and this is uh,

618
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 4: you know, I do buy what Friedman is talking about

619
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 4: in his you know, conspiracy theory about a possible setup

620
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 4: for a big Really that was.

621
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 1: That was some like, oh, it's Netflix special kind of

622
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: stuff there, like I want to see a documentary about

623
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 1: these guys and oh that absolutely, yeah, I know it does,

624
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 1: but I want I want more of it. This is great.

625
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 4: But I also do think that Patrick Mahomes pessimism is

626
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 4: real because there was a special on DraftKings that I

627
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 4: just bats where it is most passing yardage of the

628
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 4: four remaining quarterbacks the rest of the way, and the

629
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,479
Speaker 4: odds were Joe Burrow plus one ten, Brock Purty plus

630
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 4: one twenty, Patrick Mahomes plus nine hundred, and Jalen Hurts

631
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 4: plus twelve hundred.

632
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 1: You know, I silly, like I mean, oh.

633
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 2: I slammed that Patrick Mahomes bet.

634
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 3: Me that is a bet basically saying that the Chiefs

635
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 3: do not make the Super Bowl R because if the

636
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: Chiefs make the Super Bowl, Mahomes is almost certain to

637
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 3: win that.

638
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 2: Bet I was.

639
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 4: I was stunned by that number, just stunned. So obviously,

640
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 4: like the Patrick Mahomes pessimism is real. But for that reason,

641
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 4: I think if we had a fully healthy Patrick Mahomes,

642
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 4: what would this total be said at like fifty two

643
00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 4: fifty three and we're seeing it at forty eight half.

644
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 1: I think fifty two at the minimum for sure.

645
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 2: I do not think this ankle injury is worth like

646
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 2: three and a half to four and a half points,

647
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 2: so I.

648
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 1: Six and a half on some spots too. I'm looking at.

649
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 2: Excuse me, sugar House getting forty six and a half.

650
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 1: We're not better be getting forty six and a half, So.

651
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 4: Five or seven points based on this injury. Yet it

652
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 4: just seems like it's way too much.

653
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 2: Simon, would you run?

654
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 1: Would you run to those other spots for even where

655
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: it's still forty six and a half even, yeah, I

656
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 1: mean in his twenty seven to twenty game. That's that's

657
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: an easy That is an easy score right there that

658
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 1: you can see in this game.

659
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 3: It's moved up to even forty seven and a half

660
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 3: at FanDuel. And I think again, we will continue to

661
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,959
Speaker 3: see this line move up as we get news of

662
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 3: you know, Patrick Mahomes.

663
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: You know he's if he's.

664
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 3: Not practicing fully, it's like, oh well, at least he's

665
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 3: there in practice. They are preparing for him to play

666
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 3: in this game. I think we will continue to see

667
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 3: this number move up, and forty seven, I mean it's unreal. Uh,

668
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 3: this was fifty three and a half when these teams

669
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 3: met in week thirteen and they combined for fifty one points. Again,

670
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 3: I do expect Mahomes to play. Now I can say,

671
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 3: I can see I can see the reason for the under. Oh,

672
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 3: by the way, when these two teams played last year

673
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 3: Week seventeen, they combined for sixty five points in the

674
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 3: conference championship last year fifty one points in overtime. So again,

675
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 3: forty seven is just way too low. But I can

676
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 3: see a case for the under in that. I mean,

677
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 3: maybe I'm wrong, maybe Mahomes doesn't play, and maybe the

678
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 3: Bengals do struggle more on offense than we would expect

679
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 3: given their offensive line injuries and the strength of the

680
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 3: defensive line for the Chiefs. So, like, I can see

681
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 3: why this is at forty seven given just what we're

682
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 3: seeing in the news right now, like the current environment.

683
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 3: But I think this number continues to move up. I'm

684
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 3: probably not going to bet it, Like, if I'm going

685
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 3: to invest in the idea that Mahomes is playing in

686
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 3: this game, I would just rather bet on the Chiefs.

687
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 3: But like, you could go full fits and if you

688
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 3: think Mahomes is playing, yeah, you could also bet the

689
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 3: over here that that is.

690
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 1: Number. That's what I want to be.

691
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 4: And speaking of full fits, Friedman, I know you said

692
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 4: I was. I would be an American if I did

693
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 4: not tease the Chiefs when they were plus two and

694
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 4: a half. I tease them at one and a half

695
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 4: with the over is enough? Am I still American?

696
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 3: You're you're American?

697
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 2: Okay? Good?

698
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 1: Yeah? On that note, one more question for you guys,

699
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 1: are you putting these two games together in any way,

700
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,879
Speaker 1: shape or form. Are you isolating them fits real quick

701
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 1: for the people out there? Anything that you want to

702
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 1: you know, you want to take the over on the

703
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 1: Kansas City game? You want to take you know, the

704
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:44,879
Speaker 1: Eagles on the point side, Like, what are you looking at?

705
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 1: Are if you're putting these two games together anything at all?

706
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,320
Speaker 4: I have not put anything together as of yet. I've

707
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 4: I've treated them as separate entities.

708
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 2: I'm not. But my only parlay was that teaser with

709
00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 2: the Chiefs and the over.

710
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 1: How about you Friedman any because I you know, everyone's

711
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 1: sitting around. We only got two games left. It's not

712
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 1: like last week where we still had four. You know,

713
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 1: people sometimes like to, you know, have a fun time there. Plus,

714
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:09,840
Speaker 1: if you get things right in the first one. You know,

715
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 1: sometimes some places give you that incentive to cash out

716
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 1: and you've already made some money. I know I did

717
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 1: that with the Cowboys last week. As soon as they

718
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 1: went ahead, I cashed out of that bad boy and said,

719
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 1: thank you very much. And it stands in my way

720
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 1: out of that. And immediately after they missed the extra

721
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 1: point and I said, thank goodness I did. I could

722
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 1: see where this game is going. So my question to

723
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 1: you putting these games together in any way, shape or form.

724
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, So the teaser I mentioned earlier, if Kansas City

725
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 3: like pops back up to one and a half as underdogs,

726
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 3: then that's very teasable. I would say, you know, put

727
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:43,759
Speaker 3: Kansas City in San Francisco together in a teaser. But

728
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:47,399
Speaker 3: I do think you know, if you are interested, if

729
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,359
Speaker 3: you do think Mahomes plays, I think you could go

730
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 3: full fits on it. You parlay the over with Kansas City,

731
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 3: whether it's the money line or the spread, and then

732
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 3: I think you probably take the over, like in the

733
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,800
Speaker 3: same game, parlay with the over on Mahomes passing yardage.

734
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: That's very possible.

735
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 3: And then I think, like I like San Francisco, if

736
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,359
Speaker 3: they win, it could be a lower scoring type of game,

737
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 3: like that could be a defensive focused type of game

738
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 3: with San Francisco. So I'm probably not going to parlay that,

739
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 3: but like I could see taking San Francisco on the

740
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 3: money line or the spread and then parlaying that with

741
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 3: the under.

742
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:26,839
Speaker 1: Don't forget to stay on top of everything that's moving

743
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 1: in the betting world with our Betting Pros app and

744
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 1: go premium at bettingpros dot com. Slash upgrade today. That's smarter,

745
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 1: not harder with betting Pros again, go check it out

746
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 1: bettingpros dot Com. Slash upgrade. That'll do it for us,

747
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Matthew

748
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:44,280
Speaker 1: Freedom and Pat Fitzmorris. I'm Joey p See you next time. Kids.

749
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 1: Enjoy your championship. Sunday,