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Speaker 1: Generally speaking, we're the ones you probably can trust a

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Speaker 1: little bit more than some egg shaped oval on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to the Monday edition of Fair Territory, the

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Speaker 1: last Monday Fair Territory before the Winter meetings, and the

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Speaker 1: action already has commenced. We were expecting after Thanksgiving some

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Speaker 1: deals to start trickling in, and we saw too, just

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Speaker 1: in the last twenty four hours as I tape this

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Speaker 1: on Monday morning. The two deals are Frankie Montas to

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Speaker 1: the Mets two years thirty four million with a one

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Speaker 1: year opt out and Matthew Boyd to the Cubs two

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Speaker 1: years twenty nine million. Now, the interesting thing about these

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Speaker 1: deals is both these players are represented by Scott Boris,

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Speaker 1: and Scott Boris, after an offseason last year in which

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Speaker 1: four players did not sign until after February twenty fifth,

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Speaker 1: is clearly taking guys off the board this year if

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Speaker 1: he gets the rights. Now, maybe last year he wasn't

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Speaker 1: getting the right offers for certain people. We can debate

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Speaker 1: this all day long, whether it was asking too much

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Speaker 1: or whether it was the teams that were the problem,

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Speaker 1: but this is clearly a more accelerated pace than we

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Speaker 1: saw last season from Boris. And I'm going to show

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Speaker 1: you right now what I'm talking about. Here are five

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Speaker 1: Scott Borers agreements summer official, some not, that have already

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Speaker 1: taken place. And it's December two as we sit here today.

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Speaker 1: Nick Martinez one year twenty one point zero five million,

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Speaker 1: he accepted the qualifying offer. You say, Kakuchi three years

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Speaker 1: sixty three million, Flake Snell five years, one hundred and

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Speaker 1: eighty two million. Frankie Montas As I mentioned two for

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Speaker 1: thirty four, and boyd As I mentioned two for twenty nine.

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Speaker 1: So what does this mean for the teams involved? Well,

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Speaker 1: the Mets desperately needs starting pitching. Remember they have three

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Speaker 1: starting pitchers who are now free agents, Sean Mania, Luis

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Speaker 1: Severino and Jose Cantana. That has left gaping hole in

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Speaker 1: their rotation. A little fact that has gotten lost in

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Speaker 1: the pursuit of Juan Soto, at least among fans and

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Speaker 1: certain members of the media. They've forgotten. Oh yeah, the

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Speaker 1: Mets need to rebuild their entire rotation. So let's take

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Speaker 1: a look at how it will be now that Montas

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Speaker 1: is in the fold. Pending of physical It's not quite

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Speaker 1: there yet, but it's getting there. Senga of course will

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Speaker 1: be at the top, but had an injury marred season. Montas,

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Speaker 1: the Mets are counting on a bounce back similar to

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Speaker 1: what they saw from Manaya and Severino. These short term

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Speaker 1: deals worked beautifully for them last year. We'll see if

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Speaker 1: they continue to work left hander David Peterson. I expect

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Speaker 1: he will be in the rotation. Tyler McGill maybe, but

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Speaker 1: clearly the Mets need more and I assume regardless of

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Speaker 1: whether they get Sodo, that they will pursue more. If

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Speaker 1: you get Juan Soto, you keep going. You don't just stop.

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Speaker 1: So that is the Montas situation with the Mets. With

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Speaker 1: the Cubs and Boyd, it's a little bit different. Montas

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Speaker 1: was kind of a guy that the Yankees took a

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Speaker 1: chance on a couple of years ago at the deadline,

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Speaker 1: and he didn't pitch well, got hurt, and then sort

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Speaker 1: of rebuilt his value. Last year wasn't great, but the

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Speaker 1: Mets think they can get more out of him. With Boyd.

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Speaker 1: He was coming off Tommy John surgery, did not join

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Speaker 1: the Guardians last season until mid August, and yet in

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Speaker 1: those final eight starts two point seven to two ERA.

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Speaker 1: Then in the postseason he allowed only one run in

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Speaker 1: eleven and two thirds innings, pitched brilliantly down the stretch

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Speaker 1: left handed, showed what he could be. So Matthew Boyd

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Speaker 1: cashes out after a limited amount of starts, coming off

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Speaker 1: to Tommy John and good for him. He's one of

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Speaker 1: the great people in the game. I wrote a story

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Speaker 1: about him in September just about what it was like

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Speaker 1: for him and Alex Cobb for that matter, to be

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Speaker 1: back with the Guardians pitching again after dealing with so

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Speaker 1: many injuries in their career. The Cubs I named their

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Speaker 1: ownership dorks of the Week last week because they are

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Speaker 1: not spending big, or at least they have signaled they're

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Speaker 1: not going to spend big. This deal does not qualify

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Speaker 1: as spending big, but it certainly should help their rotation.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a look at what the Cub's rotation looks like.

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Speaker 1: It's a lot more complete than the Mets as of

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Speaker 1: this moment. At the top, we've got showed to Iminaga,

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Speaker 1: Cy Young Canonet last year, justin Steele when healthy, one

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Speaker 1: of the better pictures in the game, Jamison tay On,

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Speaker 1: and then you see Matthew Boyd and Javier Asad. That's

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Speaker 1: a pretty good group. They need to fix their bullpen.

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Speaker 1: They need a little bit more offense. I don't know

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Speaker 1: exactly how they're going to find it, but this is

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Speaker 1: a team that again is capable of doing big things

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Speaker 1: in the Nlcentral. They just need more. For more on

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Speaker 1: these signings, check out north Side Territory and mets up

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Speaker 1: on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. Don't miss

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Speaker 1: a single episode from the Foul Territory Network. So those

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Speaker 1: are the two signings to start the week. And in

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Speaker 1: my column today on The Athletic, I wrote about the

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Speaker 1: Juan Soto Dominoes, the other free agents that are going

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Speaker 1: to fall, but only after Sodo picks his next team.

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Speaker 1: You often hear about free agents holding up the market,

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Speaker 1: and sometimes that talk is real, sometimes it's kind of overstated.

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Speaker 1: In this case, it's true. We're not that far along

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Speaker 1: where people are complaining, but Sodo his contract will determine

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Speaker 1: so much. The impact will be so vast and far reaching.

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Speaker 1: I want to take you through it and show you

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Speaker 1: what I mean. Let's start with the outfielders. This is

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Speaker 1: the obvious place to start. Once Juan Soto signs, then

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Speaker 1: Taoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander can get better clarity on

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Speaker 1: where they might go. Taskar Hernandez still looks like he's

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Speaker 1: going back to the Dodgers, but the Dodgers are hanging

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Speaker 1: around for Juan Soto, singing if maybe he falls to them.

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Speaker 1: Not going to happen, but there's no harm in them

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Speaker 1: trying and waiting Anthony Santander. One Sodo is off the board,

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Speaker 1: and once ta Oscar presumably returns to the Dodgers, he's

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Speaker 1: going to have his pick of not only the Sodo losers,

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Speaker 1: many of whom or some of whom will be involved

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Speaker 1: in his bidding, but also other teams. Hernandez too, has

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Speaker 1: drawn interest from other teams outside of the five that

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Speaker 1: we know are interested in Sodo, the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers,

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Speaker 1: and Blue Jays. So Santander should do rather well, but

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Speaker 1: at the same time, he's got a wait in the infield.

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Speaker 1: It's sort of the same thing. The two premier free

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Speaker 1: agent infielders are Willia Domas, the short stuff from the

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Speaker 1: Milwaukee Brewers, and Alex Regman, the third baseman from the

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Speaker 1: Houston Astros. These two guys could be fits for both

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Speaker 1: the Yankees and Red Sox. If neither of those teams

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Speaker 1: signed Sodo. Because those teams have needs in the infield

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Speaker 1: as well, they also have other options, just as Hernandez

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Speaker 1: and Santander do. The Astros, of course, are continuing to

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Speaker 1: pursue Bregman. The Giants are possible fit for Adamis. There

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Speaker 1: are other teams in the mix, I am sure as well.

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Speaker 1: And then you look at the starting pitching market and

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Speaker 1: you say, well, how can Wan Soto affect the stuf

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Speaker 1: arting pitching market? Because the teams that do not sign

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Speaker 1: Juan Soto, they're gonna have money to burn. Maybe it's

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Speaker 1: money they spend on a Corbon Burns or Max Freed,

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Speaker 1: maybe they do something else entirely. But those teams, where

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Speaker 1: do you always begin When you're trying to construct the

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Speaker 1: best possible roster, You begin with the rotation. So let's say,

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Speaker 1: for example, the Red Sox strikeout on Sodo, Well, they

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Speaker 1: can sign Burns or Freed, and they can maybe do

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Speaker 1: one of the outfielders as well. They can do a

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Speaker 1: lot of things. The Blue Jays are an even better example,

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Speaker 1: because no one considers them that serious a threat in

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Speaker 1: the Sodo sweepstakes. The Blue Jays a few years back

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Speaker 1: when after Garrett Cole didn't get him but wound up

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Speaker 1: with another Scott Boris client, hen Jin Reu. Well, could

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Speaker 1: be the same kind of script developing in Toronto. Yes,

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Speaker 1: the Blue Jays, Juan Soto, they're going to try for Sodo.

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Speaker 1: But if they don't get them, well there's another Scott

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Speaker 1: Boris client who would fit Corbyn Burns, or maybe it's

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Speaker 1: someone else entirely. They can go in other directions. But

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Speaker 1: the point is, none of these scenarios that I'm discussing

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Speaker 1: will begin to take shape, begin to become reality until

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Speaker 1: after SODO signs and these players, these different free agents,

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Speaker 1: can explore their markets more fully. Right now, they're all

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Speaker 1: on hold. The good news is everyone in the sport

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Speaker 1: expects the SODO resolution to come either shortly before the

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Speaker 1: Winter meetings or during the Winter meetings. My guess is

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Speaker 1: Scott Boris wants to put on a show in Dallas

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Speaker 1: and have SODO signed there. But we'll see. These things

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Speaker 1: can go in any number of directions. But again, once

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Speaker 1: SODO signs, then the true action is going to begin. Well. Well,

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Speaker 1: time now for the inside dish, the part of the

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Speaker 1: show where I go inside a story I've written maybe

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Speaker 1: inside a trend in the game, or maybe I take

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Speaker 1: a stroll down memory lane, And that's actually what I

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Speaker 1: want to do this week. And the reason why I

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Speaker 1: am taking this stroll is because the Winter Meetings are

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Speaker 1: returning to a hotel in Dallas known as the Anaxtole. Originally,

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Speaker 1: or sometime back, it was the Window Anatole, that it

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Speaker 1: was the Low's Anatole. Now it's the Hilton Anatole. Whatever.

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Speaker 1: When the Winter Meetings are in this hotel, crazy things happen.

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Speaker 1: And that's why I'm looking forward to this year, because

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Speaker 1: I expect some crazy things to happen, and the SODO deal,

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Speaker 1: of course, ranks as the biggest likeliest candidate to be

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Speaker 1: one of those crazy big things. Two thousand Winter Meetings.

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Speaker 1: Now I go back long way in this sport. But

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Speaker 1: let's go back twenty four years to the two thousand

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Speaker 1: Winter Meetings. That was the winter meetings in which a

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Speaker 1: Rod signed his two hundred and fifty two million dollars

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Speaker 1: deal with the Texas Rangers. Now you might remember, those

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Speaker 1: of you who are a certain age, the build up

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Speaker 1: the lead up to those Winter meetings when a Rod

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Speaker 1: was interested in the Mets. But Steve Phillips. The Mets

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Speaker 1: GM came out and said, no, no, he's asking for

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Speaker 1: a private office. He's asking for this, and that his

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Speaker 1: own PR staff. We're not going to do a twenty

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Speaker 1: four plus one arrangement. So the Mets were out. Then

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Speaker 1: A Rod said somewhere that the fences at then Safeco Field,

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Speaker 1: we're kind of too far back, and the Mariner's reply,

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Speaker 1: we're not moving in the fences. So there was as

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Speaker 1: much talk about a Rod then as there is about

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Speaker 1: Juan Soto now. He was the hot guy, the twenty

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Speaker 1: five year old free agent, very similar circumstances. Of course,

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Speaker 1: there was no social media then, but this was the

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Speaker 1: talk of the sport, and those Winter Meetings turned into

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Speaker 1: a spending orgy that I don't know has been really

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Speaker 1: matched in terms of intensity. More dollars have been spent

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Speaker 1: in Winter meetings than one where Cole Rendon and Strasburg

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Speaker 1: went down a few years back. There were more dollars spent,

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Speaker 1: but that Winter Meetings was a lively, rollicking affair, and

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Speaker 1: it started with the signing of Mike Hampton, the rocky

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Speaker 1: signing of Mike Campden to an eight year, one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty one million dollar deal. At the moment that

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Speaker 1: was signed, that was the richest deal in baseball history.

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Speaker 1: And one of the things Hampton said in explaining his

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Speaker 1: decision to choose the Rockies was that he liked the

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Speaker 1: school system where he was going to put his kids.

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Speaker 1: Sandy Alderson, at that time, was an executive vice president

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Speaker 1: in Major League Baseball. He in the middle of the

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Speaker 1: lobby at the meetings ripped the Rockies for spending that

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Speaker 1: kind of money, and he ripped Hampton for saying what

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Speaker 1: he said about the school system. He said, Sandy Alderson did,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to hear about the wheat Ridge, Colorado

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Speaker 1: school system. So that is how the Winter meetings that

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Speaker 1: year started. Then came a rod, and of course the

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Speaker 1: rumors were flying all over the place. And I'll never

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Speaker 1: forget Frank Wren, then an assistant general matcher with the

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Speaker 1: Atlanta Braves. He later became the GM. I saw him

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Speaker 1: ducking into an elevator and this was right before the announcement,

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Speaker 1: and I asked, if you heard anything on a rod.

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Speaker 1: The Braves were in at that point, and he looked

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Speaker 1: at me and he said ten times twenty four. I

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Speaker 1: couldn't believe it. What he meant was ten years, two

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Speaker 1: hundred and forty million. As it turned out, the deal

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Speaker 1: was a lit a little bit north of that, with

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Speaker 1: the Texas Rangers ten years, two hundred and fifty two million.

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Speaker 1: And even at that point, even after a Rod agreed,

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Speaker 1: it wasn't over in Dallas. Many Ramirez was next, and

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Speaker 1: Manny at the time was with the Cleveland then Indians,

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Speaker 1: and he was a free agent, and he was of

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Speaker 1: course in demand because at the time he was one

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Speaker 1: of the great hitters in the game. I remember calling

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Speaker 1: John Hart, then the president baseball operations, general manager whatever

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Speaker 1: it was with the Guardians in his hotel room the

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Speaker 1: night before this all went down. I said, John, are

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Speaker 1: you in on Manny? Oh? Can none of these numbers

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Speaker 1: they've gotten so out of hand, we can't possibly afford

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Speaker 1: Manny Ramirez. Well, that was not true, and I don't

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Speaker 1: mind saying that now that John is no longer baseball.

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Speaker 1: That was an outright fabrication. The Indians were in, they

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Speaker 1: were in big, but they got outbid by the Boston

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Speaker 1: Red Sox. Manny Ramirez went there for eight years, one

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty million, and the rest is history. So

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Speaker 1: that winn I mean, a lot of action, a lot

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Speaker 1: of back and forth with all this sudden kind of

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Speaker 1: serving as Major League Baseballs. I don't know, complainer in

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Speaker 1: chief at that point. It was a lot of fun.

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Speaker 1: It was a winter meetings that I will never forget. Now,

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Speaker 1: the next one that was very memorable was two thy

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Speaker 1: eleven Albert Pooholes to the Angels. Now, if you guys remember,

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Speaker 1: and you don't have to be of a certain age

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Speaker 1: for this one, if you remember, Albert Pooholes was a

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Speaker 1: subject of attention from the Cardinals, and the Marlins were

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Speaker 1: in big as well. It was the Cardinals and the Marlins.

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Speaker 1: The Marlins and the Cardinals. You really didn't hear much

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Speaker 1: about other teams. And I'll never forget one of the

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Speaker 1: better scoops of my career was when I found out

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Speaker 1: the Angels were talking to Poohles, just talking to him.

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Speaker 1: They were in at that point, and I remember the

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Speaker 1: Angels pr staff reacting saying, we don't know anything about it.

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Speaker 1: I remember reporters, other reporters knocking down that report. Well,

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Speaker 1: of course it turned out that Poohles indeed went to

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Speaker 1: the Angels. It was an absolute shocker. The Angels at

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Speaker 1: that same winter meetings signed CJ. Wilson. It wasn't the

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Speaker 1: same kind of meetings as we saw in two thousand,

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Speaker 1: wasn't quite that lively, but it was pretty good. And

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Speaker 1: the Pooholes deal, to me, stands as an enduring example

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Speaker 1: of what I often talk about on this show and others,

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Speaker 1: what I often write about as well, in free agency,

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Speaker 1: and to a certain extent, at the trade deadline, things

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Speaker 1: are going to happen that no one anticipates. That will

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Speaker 1: make your head spin. Now, actually you can look at

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Speaker 1: Matthew Boyd and Frankie Montas. Those deals weren't exactly predicted

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Speaker 1: for those teams. But I'm talking about the bigger deals.

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Speaker 1: I'm talking about when Albert Pooholes went to the Angels,

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Speaker 1: when Zach Grenke went to the Diamondbacks a few years later.

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Speaker 1: Those are the ones, the ones that come out of nowhere,

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Speaker 1: that captivate us the most. So is it possible that

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Speaker 1: happens with Juan Soto? Doesn't seem that way, but you

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Speaker 1: never know. And I will tell you this. At the

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Speaker 1: Anatole things shake, things start moving, things happen. Time Now

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Speaker 1: for grilling Ken, Let's get to your questions. First question

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Speaker 1: comes from coach Mike Faber, who asks, how can we

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Speaker 1: tell a real report from a fake one? These days?

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Speaker 1: My heart can't take it. Lol. My good question. Now,

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Speaker 1: people on X, Twitter, or whatever you want to call it,

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Speaker 1: should by this point be pretty savvy to how the

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Speaker 1: thing works. There are reporters, established reporters, reporters who work

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Speaker 1: for major outlets who report on baseball transactions. There are

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Speaker 1: reporters who over the years have built a certain reputation

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Speaker 1: that you can trust. Not everybody's perfect, and certain reporters,

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Speaker 1: including myself, will miss from time to time, but generally speaking,

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Speaker 1: the accuracy rate is pretty high. And then there are

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Speaker 1: others that surface on X that will report things and

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Speaker 1: you know that you've never heard of them, and you wonder,

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Speaker 1: what can this possible be? Real? Now, I will give

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Speaker 1: this qualifier. There are times when fans or random people

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Speaker 1: in general find out things before we do and post

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Speaker 1: them and then claim credit and want to be a

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Speaker 1: reporter for a day it happens. That's fine, good for them,

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Speaker 1: But generally speaking, I would wait for the confirmation from

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Speaker 1: the established reporters, the guys like Jeff Pass and John Hayman,

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Speaker 1: Joel Sherman, Mark finesand myself we do this for a living.

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Speaker 1: All the athletic writers, I would mention as well, and

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Speaker 1: generally speaking, we're the ones you probably can trust a

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Speaker 1: little bit more than some egg shaped oval on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: Put it that way, all right. Next question comes from

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Speaker 1: Jeremy Bonsal. Jeremy says, why are other teams not following

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Speaker 1: the lead of the Dodgers with the deferring payment to

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Speaker 1: maximize their chances? Actually, Jeremy, teams other than the Dodgers

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Speaker 1: also do deferrals, maybe not to the same extent that

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers have done, and maybe not with the same impact,

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Speaker 1: because the Dodgers have done them with big deals, and

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Speaker 1: they've done them to essentially lower the luxury tax number

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Speaker 1: on those deals. But they are not alone in this regard.

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Speaker 1: The real question to me is will teams, now seeing

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Speaker 1: what the Dodgers are doing, become more aggressive with deferrals

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Speaker 1: try to employ that strategy more often? It works best

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Speaker 1: for teams that are near the luxury tax threshold, the

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Speaker 1: teams that want to lower the AAVs of the multi

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Speaker 1: year deals that they sign and thus get lower present

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Speaker 1: day values and lower luxury tax numbers. If you're say

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Speaker 1: the Guardians or the Orioles or the Mariners one of

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Speaker 1: those teams. Deferrals might work in terms of enabling you

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Speaker 1: to pay later and you can invest the money now

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Speaker 1: that you're putting in escrow to satisfy Major League Baseball.

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Speaker 1: But it's not the same motivation as it is for

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Speaker 1: the big market teams and the spenders that want to

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Speaker 1: get under the luxury tax threshold or at least lower

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Speaker 1: their number. All right, time for the final quoestes, and

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Speaker 1: this one comes from Winston bab who has what are

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Speaker 1: the Astros doing well? I wrote about this today a

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Speaker 1: little bit. Winston. The Astro's main focus right now is Bregman.

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Speaker 1: But if they don't get Bregman, they have stayed in

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Speaker 1: contact with Willia Damas and they also have looked at

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Speaker 1: Jorge Polanco. Now what's interesting about the Astros is, then

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Speaker 1: if they don't sign Bregman, what makes anyone think they're

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Speaker 1: going to spend for Willia Damas. If you're going to

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Speaker 1: spend that kind of money, the money it will take

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Speaker 1: for Bregman, the money it will take for a Damas,

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Speaker 1: you're going to do it on the face of the

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Speaker 1: franchise or one of the faces of the franchise, and

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Speaker 1: that's Bregman, So why would you do it for Willia

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Speaker 1: Damas and the athletics Chandler Rome pointed out a few

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Speaker 1: weeks ago, the same applies to Noan Arnado, who is

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Speaker 1: available in trade. Why would the Astros bringing Arnado pay him?

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Speaker 1: Although the commitment would not be as great as it

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Speaker 1: would be to Bregman, when you've got a face of

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Speaker 1: the franchise sitting there and he is the guy that

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Speaker 1: you really want. So that's their main focus right now.

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Speaker 1: They also, at some point I would expect, would address

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Speaker 1: first base. And the other thing that could surface with

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Speaker 1: them is a trade of Ryan Presley heard about that

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Speaker 1: earlier in the offseason. Certainly something that seems possible. I

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Speaker 1: want to thank everyone for their questions, Thanks for watching,

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Speaker 1: for listening. You know where to find us, YouTube, Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. We will be back on

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Speaker 1: Thursday with our live show. It will be at noon

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Speaker 1: noon on Thursday. Myself and Alana Rizzo. Have a great

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