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Speaker 1: slash ft ball. All right, welcome to hoop tonight here
Speaker 1: at the volume heavy Tuesday. Everybody hope love you guys
Speaker 1: are having a great week so far. Got a jampack
Speaker 1: show for you today. We're continuing our season preview series
Speaker 1: with number three, the Oklahoma City Thunder and number two
Speaker 1: the Denver Nuggets, So two season previews today, You guys
Speaker 1: have the trip before we get started subscribe to the
Speaker 1: Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of
Speaker 1: our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLT so
Speaker 1: you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about our
Speaker 1: podcast feed wherever you podcast under Hoops Tonight, and then
Speaker 1: keep dropping mail bag questions in those YouTube comments. We
Speaker 1: keep hitting them throughout the rest of the season. Little
Speaker 1: little update on how this week's going to go. Before
Speaker 1: we get to the regular season opener, which is literally
Speaker 1: one week from tomorrow, we will be going live on
Speaker 1: YouTube that night, but obviously we still have a bunch
Speaker 1: of stuff we need to hit right. So I got
Speaker 1: three more season previews to do. We're doing two of
Speaker 1: those today. Number one obviously the Boston Celtics, we will
Speaker 1: get to at some point later this week. There are
Speaker 1: several preseason kind of like check ins that I want
Speaker 1: to do on some of our contender tier teams, the
Speaker 1: teams in that top eleven that we haven't touched yet
Speaker 1: in preseason that I want to get to. I have
Speaker 1: Sam Vessini coming on the show later this week. Every
Speaker 1: year we do like a debate of our tender rankings,
Speaker 1: and so he'll be coming on to do that at
Speaker 1: some point later this week, so we will get some
Speaker 1: If you're waiting on preseason reaction on one of the
Speaker 1: teams that haven't hit yet, we will get to that
Speaker 1: later this week. And then obviously we'll have more of
Speaker 1: a big picture debate with Sam, and then I've got
Speaker 1: these last three season previews, and then next Tuesday, we're
Speaker 1: just getting back into the usual routine. Some a good
Speaker 1: mix of instant reactions at night after games and then
Speaker 1: a lot of that sort of thing in the morning,
Speaker 1: a lot of film breakdowns, a lot of the usual
Speaker 1: stuff that you are used to. So our last week
Speaker 1: of preseason prep this week, and then we'll get into
Speaker 1: our routine. So not any further, dude, let's get started.
Speaker 1: Number three the Oklahoma City Thunder quick recap of their offseason.
Speaker 1: They lost Josh Gitty, Gordon Hayward, and Mike Muscala. They
Speaker 1: added Alex Cruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. Nicole a Topic their
Speaker 1: first round pick, kind of like a shot creating guard.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure how much he'll play this year, but
Speaker 1: obviously added to the roster Crusoe and Hartenstein. Alex Crusoe
Speaker 1: instantly gives Oklahoma City a perfect fitting five man lineup
Speaker 1: for their Chet at center. Looks he's a much better
Speaker 1: off ball offensive player than Josh Gitty was. Right. Josh
Speaker 1: Kitty obviously is a very interesting on ball shot creator.
Speaker 1: We're gonna find out a lot about him in Chicago
Speaker 1: this year and what he can do getting better defenders
Speaker 1: from the other teams, more of the game plan being
Speaker 1: kind of centered around him. We're gonna learn more about
Speaker 1: Josh Kitty, but he wasn't necessarily the right fit for
Speaker 1: this iteration of the Oklahoma City thunder Right. Alex Russeau
Speaker 1: much better off ball offensive player, a better shooter. He's
Speaker 1: shot thirty nine percent from three over his last four
Speaker 1: seasons on about three attempts per game, and he's a
Speaker 1: very active off ball screener and cutter. Those of you
Speaker 1: guys who watched our TIMPs tape segment on Friday, we'll
Speaker 1: remember some of the clips that I showed you guys
Speaker 1: of just ways that Alex like always is moving. He's
Speaker 1: always either like cutting into the dunker spot to make
Speaker 1: himself available, or screening to get another shooter open, or
Speaker 1: relocating on the weak side to try to find an
Speaker 1: opening for himself to get a catch and shoot shot.
Speaker 1: He is just a very active and productive off ball
Speaker 1: offensive players. Then on the other end of the floor,
Speaker 1: he's one of the best perimeter defenders in all of basketball.
Speaker 1: He's in that top tier of guys that you want
Speaker 1: to put on opposing stars. He kind of fits into
Speaker 1: this like new archetype that I actually like a little
Speaker 1: bit more. I talked about this with Claire to Loon.
Speaker 1: If you guys remember the other day when we were
Speaker 1: discussing the Defensive Player of the Year stuff, and one
Speaker 1: of the things that I was kind of venting about
Speaker 1: is like there's a lot of like there's there's a
Speaker 1: lot of attention that goes to the lanky perimeter defenders.
Speaker 1: Right these are the guys that are like six ' eight,
Speaker 1: six ' nine, super long arms, and they're definitely is
Speaker 1: advantage there. I'm not gonna sit here and pretend like
Speaker 1: that's not an important type of defender, especially against like
Speaker 1: pull up shooters, right, like guys that love to get
Speaker 1: to their spots and shoot pull up jump shots over
Speaker 1: the top. Length has real value. Length has real value
Speaker 1: off the ball, playing passing lanes, length has real value.
Speaker 1: Covering ground in rotation, length has real value defensive rebounding,
Speaker 1: but I've always been more drawn to like the bigger, stronger,
Speaker 1: perhaps a little bit shorter types of perimeter athletes. One,
Speaker 1: they have the foot speed to still cover ground and
Speaker 1: to still help in defensive rebounding situations, but they're more physical.
Speaker 1: They're usually able to get away with more in terms
Speaker 1: of officiating. And then when it comes to the best
Speaker 1: players in the league, I tend to think most of
Speaker 1: them are bothered more by physical ball pressure than they
Speaker 1: are length in disruption using long arms, and so like,
Speaker 1: we've seen this a lot in recent years, right like
Speaker 1: the Bruce Brown archetype. Lou Dort is already kind of
Speaker 1: doing this for Oklahoma City. Alex Cruso kind of fits
Speaker 1: into this mold Christian Brown with the Denver Nuggets, where
Speaker 1: it's like six five six six, built like a truck,
Speaker 1: can slide their feet and keep guys in front and
Speaker 1: chest them up. And then in the more physical NBA
Speaker 1: they've actually become a very valuable archetype, especially as the
Speaker 1: league has kind of changed the way that they've officiated
Speaker 1: and let more of this type of contact go. Alex
Speaker 1: Caruso fits that mold perfectly. He's gonna beat guys to spots.
Speaker 1: He's gonna bring physicality, he's gonna force them to shoot
Speaker 1: over the top, and he just brings that big, physical
Speaker 1: perimeter athlete to the table. He's also just a super
Speaker 1: smart defender within the team context. He understands game plan,
Speaker 1: always does his job. Those are you guys who watched
Speaker 1: the our film session last week will have remembered some
Speaker 1: of these examples that I'm talking about. But he communicates
Speaker 1: really well. He understands like defensive spacing, meaning like where
Speaker 1: you want players in help side, like keeping Chet in
Speaker 1: a low man position. He'll identify a switch and push
Speaker 1: Chet down and make sure that he's in the right spot,
Speaker 1: communicating coverages. He's just a massive connective piece, a leadership
Speaker 1: piece within a defensive unit. I think he's one of
Speaker 1: the best defensive players in the league. He's gonna help
Speaker 1: the Thunder a lot. In addition, he just has an
Speaker 1: incredibly high motor. He is consistently one of the best
Speaker 1: plus minus guys in the league. I went over onto
Speaker 1: cleaning the glass today and I just went back through
Speaker 1: every single season of his career, every single team he's
Speaker 1: ever been on in his entire NBA career has been
Speaker 1: substantially better when he's on the floor versus when he's off.
Speaker 1: The plus minus splits have been crazy. He is quite
Speaker 1: simply one of the very best role players in the NBA,
Speaker 1: and it is a huge get for the Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: Thunder Isaah Hartenstein. This is a rock solid, starting caliber
Speaker 1: center On offense, He's a very good connective piece in
Speaker 1: five out concepts. He's a great screener and seiler. As
Speaker 1: he rolls to the rim, he seals rim protection away
Speaker 1: to create driving lanes. He makes quick decisions on the
Speaker 1: ball as he's flowing from side to side in action
Speaker 1: keeps the ball moving. He's great at making passing reads.
Speaker 1: Like when you're playing in five out concepts, as the
Speaker 1: big man is dribbling to one side, you usually have
Speaker 1: like a pinned down into a screen or some sort
Speaker 1: of like there's two perimetive players. One of them is
Speaker 1: usually going to cut and one of them is usually
Speaker 1: going to come off of that screen, and a lot
Speaker 1: of times defenses will deny the ball or top lock
Speaker 1: and it actually triggers those cuts. Right in those situations,
Speaker 1: you need a big man who can consistently read and
Speaker 1: make those passes. Hartenstein is very good at that sort
Speaker 1: of thing. Those are he's good at beating the overplays
Speaker 1: that you're gonna see, and then he has just enough
Speaker 1: scoring pop to keep the defense honest and to remain
Speaker 1: a threat when he needs to score right like, he
Speaker 1: can face up and give a really good, hard left
Speaker 1: handed drive and get to the basket and finish. He's
Speaker 1: got a good floater, like a little left handed floater
Speaker 1: that he makes when he's finishing off of short roll
Speaker 1: passes in pick and roll. And he's an excellent offensive rebounder.
Speaker 1: These are ways that he can keep the defense honest
Speaker 1: when guys try to help off of him or overplay
Speaker 1: what his teammates are doing. He is a rock solid
Speaker 1: starting caliber center in this league. On defense, he's a
Speaker 1: perfectly functional defensive center. He's not great at anything, but
Speaker 1: he's pretty good at everything. He's a decent shot blocking
Speaker 1: rim protector. He's a decent ball screen defender who gets
Speaker 1: up to the level and is active with his hands.
Speaker 1: He does have a tendency to commit fouls compared to
Speaker 1: some of his peers at the center position, but he's
Speaker 1: active with his hands. I'd rather be active with your
Speaker 1: hands and commit more fouls than completely stand back with
Speaker 1: your hands and just let dudes shoot open shots all
Speaker 1: game long too. So again, he's not great at it,
Speaker 1: but he's okay at it. He's decent on switches. He
Speaker 1: was really good statistically on switches in the regular season
Speaker 1: last year, and only okay in the playoffs. But overall,
Speaker 1: I think he's a fine switch defender. And then he's
Speaker 1: a very good defensive rebounder. So these are all things
Speaker 1: that make him into just a solid center, which in
Speaker 1: the context of what Oklahoma City needs from him, is perfect.
Speaker 1: He can anchor bench units, so like some of his
Speaker 1: defensive limitations aren't as big of a deal because he's
Speaker 1: anchoring bench units. And then when Chet is out there,
Speaker 1: it gives okay see a big look. Puts Chet and
Speaker 1: help and unlocks a whole other form of defense that
Speaker 1: they can get to that they wouldn't be able to
Speaker 1: get to otherwise. What does that mean? Why is it
Speaker 1: that Hartenstein can unlock more for Oklahoma City defensively because
Speaker 1: it allows Chet to operate out of ball screens. Right,
Speaker 1: very simple way to put it. If Cheed is at
Speaker 1: the five, he's probably going to be guarding fives. Chet
Speaker 1: is guarding fives. They're going to bring fives into ball screens,
Speaker 1: and his job is going to be to come up
Speaker 1: to the level of the screen to handle the ball
Speaker 1: handler coming downhill. Most teams now have to bring their
Speaker 1: ball handler or their ball screen defender up a little
Speaker 1: bit more because so many perimeterive players in the NBA
Speaker 1: now are so good at coming over the top of
Speaker 1: those screens and hitting shots like contested mid range shots, floaters, threes,
Speaker 1: when guys die on screens, that sort of thing you like.
Speaker 1: The guard play is just so good, especially in the
Speaker 1: Western Conference. You gotta have guys that come up to
Speaker 1: the level of the screen, right, And so if the
Speaker 1: big man has to come up to the level of
Speaker 1: the screen, then he can't be in help. He's not
Speaker 1: around the basket as much. Right. In a lot of cases,
Speaker 1: it forces you to defend the ball screen three round
Speaker 1: two by bringing another defender over to handle the role
Speaker 1: man as chet is up at the level and the
Speaker 1: role man gets behind him, right, and that low man
Speaker 1: in a lot of situations for the Thunder in years past,
Speaker 1: was a player that was either not particularly athletic like
Speaker 1: Josh Gitty, or not particularly tall like the rest of
Speaker 1: the guys in the lineup, right, and that is just
Speaker 1: a little bit difficult to work with as a defensive foundation.
Speaker 1: Right when Hartenstein is on the floor, you can ask
Speaker 1: him to defend the other team center, you can ask
Speaker 1: him to defend ball screens. This allows Chet to guard
Speaker 1: the weakest offensive player among the one through four spots,
Speaker 1: and then in most cases he can operate as a lowman.
Speaker 1: What that means is when Hartenstein comes up to the
Speaker 1: level of the screen to guard the ball handler and
Speaker 1: the screener gets behind him, Chet is the guy that's
Speaker 1: on the backside. Very tall, very long, very athletic. He
Speaker 1: can help on the role man while also having the
Speaker 1: physical tools to be able to recover and guard that
Speaker 1: corner shooter. Right. That is the dynamic we're talking about here.
Speaker 1: This is what made Yannis one of the best defensive
Speaker 1: players in the world. His ability to partner with Brook
Speaker 1: Lopez as the hell defender, as the low man who
Speaker 1: is not in the ball screen. That is a look
Speaker 1: that Oklahoma City basically didn't have before this deal, and
Speaker 1: so it unlocks a lot in terms of defensive versatility
Speaker 1: for this Thunder team. So two massive role player upgrades
Speaker 1: that specifically addressed the three biggest weaknesses that this Oklahoma
Speaker 1: City roster had. The three biggest weaknesses were Josh Gitty
Speaker 1: was a clunky fit with the starters, good player, just
Speaker 1: kind of a bad fit teams regarding him with centers,
Speaker 1: and sagging in the paint. It was an issue to
Speaker 1: their frontline size. They were a horrific defensive rebounding team,
Speaker 1: and they were vulnerable to centers that could throw Chet
Speaker 1: around because they were too big and strong for him.
Speaker 1: And then three versatility, they just didn't have a ton
Speaker 1: of flexibility to change the way they play on either
Speaker 1: end of the floor. Crusoe and Hartenstein provide multiple answers
Speaker 1: to all three of those issues, the Josh Gitty problem.
Speaker 1: Now you have three different five man groups that all
Speaker 1: make perfect sense. Shay J. Dow Lou Dort, Crusoe, Chet,
Speaker 1: shae jadab Cruso, Chet, Hartenstein, shae jadab Dort, Chet Hartenstein.
Speaker 1: All three of those five man groupings are substantially better
Speaker 1: fits on both ends of the floor than what they
Speaker 1: had to work with last year. Completely solves that problem
Speaker 1: frontline size well. Hartenstein makes your front line substantially bigger, stronger,
Speaker 1: and more physical. And gives you a two big look
Speaker 1: just like fundamentally alters the physical profile of the team.
Speaker 1: And then lastly, now you have all sorts of versatility
Speaker 1: on both ends of the floor, Cruso gives you optionality
Speaker 1: for guarding opposing stars. Like Cruso's a little bit quicker,
Speaker 1: Dort is a little bit stronger, right, So like now
Speaker 1: you can kind of tinker with who they guard based
Speaker 1: on what actually suits their defensive skill sets. Not to
Speaker 1: mention you now had Originally you had Lou Dort, let's
Speaker 1: call it thirty five to forty minutes a night of
Speaker 1: top tier perimeter defense, and then you had other good
Speaker 1: perimeter defenders on the team, but not like top tier guys.
Speaker 1: Now you have forty eight minutes to top tier perimeter
Speaker 1: defense held more than forty eight minutes. If Lou plays around,
Speaker 1: you know, thirty thirty five minutes and so plays twenty
Speaker 1: five ish minutes a game, you're looking at fifty five
Speaker 1: ish minutes of top tier perimeter defense that you're able
Speaker 1: to deploy over the course of a game. That's a
Speaker 1: real asset. Isaiah Hartenstein unlocks several different styles on both
Speaker 1: ends of the floor. On offense, there are five out
Speaker 1: concepts you can run now that Hartenstein was better at.
Speaker 1: Like Hartenstein, Chet's a better basketball player than Hartenstein. No
Speaker 1: one's arguing that, But Hartenstein he's a better screener, he's
Speaker 1: a better passers. He's just a little bit more used
Speaker 1: to playing that like five out kind of folkrum on
Speaker 1: the offensive end of the floor. And so he unlocks
Speaker 1: some stuff in the five out concepts that Chet wasn't
Speaker 1: able to do. Chet able to run action. Now you're
Speaker 1: gonna have to guard Chet with certain types of players
Speaker 1: that can deal with his tools. Those types of players
Speaker 1: tend to struggle to navigate screens. Now you can have
Speaker 1: Chet operating in screening action with the ball in his hands.
Speaker 1: We saw an example of that in preseason where he
Speaker 1: got a dunk out of it, right, So, like that's
Speaker 1: a concept that you can get into Hartenstein high low come.
Speaker 1: We saw examples of passers at the top of the
Speaker 1: key and Chet and Isaiah Hartenstein screening for each other
Speaker 1: underneath the basket to try to create advantage situations. Those
Speaker 1: are looks that they didn't have in years past. Isaiah
Speaker 1: is a professional big man. Chet is more of a
Speaker 1: primitive player that can do big man's stuff. Hartenstein unlocks
Speaker 1: some of the stuff that Chet's not particularly good at.
Speaker 1: He gives him a bunch more scheme versatility. And then
Speaker 1: on defense, as we talked about the two big look,
Speaker 1: that's something that they might absolutely need for certain matchups.
Speaker 1: Right teams like the Lakers, teams like the Denver Nuggets,
Speaker 1: teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves, teams with a lot of
Speaker 1: physical power on that frontline, they're gonna need bigger looks.
Speaker 1: That's something they can go against. Right bully ball centers
Speaker 1: Nikole Jokic, Usuf Nurkic, Demonis Sabonis, even ad to a
Speaker 1: certain extent, these are guys that Hartenstein is a better
Speaker 1: look for than Chet is. And so there's just so
Speaker 1: much more versatility and malleyability with this team on both
Speaker 1: ends of the floor. With the signings of Caruso or
Speaker 1: the trade for Cruso and the signing of Isaiah Hartenstein.
Speaker 1: Other things to watch with the Thunder this year. One
Speaker 1: hunting more threes. The Thunder were number one in three
Speaker 1: point percentage last year, but they were twentieth and three
Speaker 1: point attempts per one hundred possessions. They were top ten
Speaker 1: in mid range volume they took eleven mid range shots
Speaker 1: per game. So far in preseason, they've only taken eight
Speaker 1: mid range shots per game, and they are sixth in
Speaker 1: three point attempts per one hundred possessions so far among
Speaker 1: preseason teams. So like, they have clearly been trying to
Speaker 1: shift their shot profile a little bit. Shay and Jalen
Speaker 1: Williams in particular looks like they're looking to take more
Speaker 1: pull up threes off the dribble, and again, the pull
Speaker 1: up twos are important. Those are big playoff shots. Those
Speaker 1: are shots that you can get to consistently. They're coverage beaters.
Speaker 1: We've seen Shay, even just in last year's playoff run,
Speaker 1: be able to lean on that skill in big moments
Speaker 1: to generate offense. No one's saying stop taking mid range
Speaker 1: shots altogether, but if you can take it from eleven
Speaker 1: to eight and you turn those three into three point
Speaker 1: shots or high quality grim attempts, that is an improvement
Speaker 1: in your overall shot profile. And I think that that's
Speaker 1: something we can keep an eye on. Specifically, Shay and
Speaker 1: j Dubb looking for more pull up threes driving kick
Speaker 1: decisions is something I want to keep an eye on
Speaker 1: this year. The Thunder offense was not great in the postseason.
Speaker 1: They had just a one to ten point nine offensive
Speaker 1: rating wasn't good in either round as it worse against
Speaker 1: the Pelicans, was only one twelve against Dallas and down
Speaker 1: substantially from where their regular season efficiency was. It actually
Speaker 1: reminds me of some of the stuff that we saw
Speaker 1: from Boston in years past, where like they need to
Speaker 1: get better at being more deliberate about passing up okay
Speaker 1: shots or good like ok ish shots early in the
Speaker 1: clock to try to find better shots and then lean
Speaker 1: more on the tougher shots in late clock situations when
Speaker 1: you have to rim decisions. Was a big issue in
Speaker 1: the Dallas series, where guys would beat guys off the
Speaker 1: dribble and then try to go make some sort of
Speaker 1: crazy contested finish in traffic when there were kickout reads
Speaker 1: that were available. Again, but there's a level that Boston
Speaker 1: got to last year in addition to their talent, where
Speaker 1: they got super deliberate about they're spacing and super deliberate
Speaker 1: about their process. Let's beat somebody off the dribble, Let's
Speaker 1: make a couple kickout reads, Let's get the ball driving
Speaker 1: and kicking and see if we can't get great shots
Speaker 1: out of it. That made them more resilient as an offense, right.
Speaker 1: I want to see some of that from Oklahoma City,
Speaker 1: just getting a little bit more deliberate about chasing great shots.
Speaker 1: Chet's perimeter skill development. Two big lineups with Isaiah Harten
Speaker 1: sign on the floor will put more stress on Chet's
Speaker 1: ability to shoot, dribble or pass. In the playoffs, he
Speaker 1: shot twenty six percent from three and had nineteen turnovers
Speaker 1: to twenty one. As says he was a rookie. Not
Speaker 1: trying to overreact to that, but his development in those
Speaker 1: areas will be an important factor in their ability to
Speaker 1: actually go to two big looks when it matters, because
Speaker 1: if they go too big but they feel like they
Speaker 1: can guard Chet, the opponents feel like they can guard
Speaker 1: Sheet relatively easily because he hasn't developed enough on the
Speaker 1: skill front, then it kind of defeats the purpose if
Speaker 1: you just suddenly can't score the basketball, right and as
Speaker 1: we saw, the Thunder offense did a bog down at
Speaker 1: stretches in the playoffs last year. Keep an eye on
Speaker 1: Chets perimeter skill development, and then lastly, what kind of
Speaker 1: leap are we gonna get out of j Dub this
Speaker 1: year as a rookie, he had fourteen points per game
Speaker 1: on sixty percent true shooting. Last year, nineteen points per
Speaker 1: game on sixty two percent true shooting in his second year,
Speaker 1: and then nineteen points per game on fifty four percent
Speaker 1: tru shooting in the playoffs. Where's he gonna get to
Speaker 1: this year? Is he gonna get up to twenty two
Speaker 1: points a game? He's gonna get up to twenty four
Speaker 1: points per game? Is he gonna make an All Star team?
Speaker 1: Is he gonna make Is he gonna be in consideration
Speaker 1: for All NBA at the tail end of the year.
Speaker 1: Probably not, But like, how how much of a development
Speaker 1: are we gonna get out of j Dub this year?
Speaker 1: How much closer is he going to get to the
Speaker 1: idealized version of himself. That's a big variable in how
Speaker 1: things turn out for the Thunder this year, because here's
Speaker 1: the thing. When push comes to shove, he is the
Speaker 1: number two option on a Bona FID Championship contender. A
Speaker 1: lot of big moments this year, a lot of big stretches,
Speaker 1: a lot of big possessions are gonna rest in Jadubb's hands.
Speaker 1: So his development will be a big swing factor for
Speaker 1: this team. In summary, on Oka see, I think this
Speaker 1: is a total ass kicker of a regular season team.
Speaker 1: They have six starting caliber players in a bunch of
Speaker 1: different configurations. They have a deep bench of athletic young
Speaker 1: players who all play on both ends of the floor
Speaker 1: pretty well. They have a bona fide MVP candidate leading
Speaker 1: the way in Shag Gildes. Alexander All goes far to
Speaker 1: say I would be shocked if they weren't the number
Speaker 1: one seed in the West. Like I think they're gonna
Speaker 1: be the number one seed. I wouldn't be surprised if
Speaker 1: they had a three to four game advantage over the
Speaker 1: rest of the field. As far as the playoffs go,
Speaker 1: they should feel internally like they have a good shot
Speaker 1: to beat anybody out West. Now that they have this
Speaker 1: big look, the two big look, it gives them much
Speaker 1: more to deal with teams like Denver or Minnesota or
Speaker 1: the Lakers. They came extremely close to beating Dallas last year,
Speaker 1: and they're more well equipped to beat them now. They
Speaker 1: got another big, strong defender to throw at Luca. They
Speaker 1: got demolished on the glass in that series. Dallas rebounded
Speaker 1: a third of their own misses in that second round series.
Speaker 1: You can imagine how much Hartenstein could help with that. Like,
Speaker 1: I think I would pick Oklahoma City to beat Dallas
Speaker 1: they were to play again this year. They match up
Speaker 1: super well with teams that have perimeter speed, like teams
Speaker 1: like Golden State and Sacramento rely on like quick guards
Speaker 1: to generate offense. Oklahoma City's bigger and faster on the
Speaker 1: perimeter than those teams. They're built perfectly for that. They
Speaker 1: have length for pull up shooting teams like Phoenix or
Speaker 1: New Orleans that They're just built really well. I think
Speaker 1: they are a rock solid championship contender. I think they
Speaker 1: have as good a chance to win the title as
Speaker 1: anybody in the league, aside from maybe Boston, and you
Speaker 1: could argue they have the best set of tools to
Speaker 1: deal with Boston as well should they meet in the finals.
Speaker 1: So I'm super interested to see where they can get to.
Speaker 1: I'm super excited to cover them closely this year. I've
Speaker 1: always been fascinated by the idea of scar tissue, too,
Speaker 1: like how a team responds to a disappointing playoff loss,
Speaker 1: Like I mean, they had a lead in Game six
Speaker 1: that they could have had a Game seven at home
Speaker 1: if they get a stop on that final possession. How
Speaker 1: much did that hurt those guys? How much is that
Speaker 1: scarring those guys emotionally in the way that they play,
Speaker 1: so that when they get out their next time, there's
Speaker 1: another layer of desperation and intensity that reflects in the
Speaker 1: way that they play like that. That's something I'm just
Speaker 1: really curious to see and I to keep an eye
Speaker 1: on this year and just how they look heading into
Speaker 1: this opportunity where there's some real pressure, all right. Number
Speaker 1: two the Denver Nuggets quick off season recap. They lost
Speaker 1: in Pavis called Well Pope, Justin Holliday, and Reggie Jackson.
Speaker 1: They added dal Ron Holmes. He's a backup center who
Speaker 1: got hurt. He'll be out for the season, but a
Speaker 1: backup center that I think is fascinating. I'm curious to
Speaker 1: see how he turns out in the long run. Dario
Speaker 1: Sarch and Russell Westbrook on the Russell Westbrook front, I've
Speaker 1: talked about him extensively this preseason, and I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: talk about him too much more. He's just a more
Speaker 1: volatile version of Reggie Jackson. He'll have higher highs and
Speaker 1: he'll have lower lows. That's just the Russell Westbrook experience.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna talk very much about Russ this year.
Speaker 1: Nobody can handle it. He's the biggest roarshacked test in
Speaker 1: the NBA. You either see it or you don't. I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna get into those arguments with people. It's just
Speaker 1: not a big enough deal too. I don't think Russ
Speaker 1: is gonna make that big of a difference for this
Speaker 1: team either way, because they're not going to be closing
Speaker 1: games or going down in the playoffs with him on
Speaker 1: the floor, and in all likelihood he's a backup guard.
Speaker 1: But I just view him as a more volatile version
Speaker 1: of Reggie Jackson. If you're interested in more of a
Speaker 1: breakdown of Russ, just go back to my breakdown of
Speaker 1: the Boston Celtics Denver Nuggets game from the first game
Speaker 1: of preseason. Darios rich good backup center option. One of
Speaker 1: the things that I've always found interesting with Denver is
Speaker 1: their bench units. Most teams defend Denver bench units by switching,
Speaker 1: so it kind of turns into Jamal Murray or Aaron
Speaker 1: Gordon match up hunting. Dario Sarich gives them another option
Speaker 1: to help hunt matchups in those situations. He personally shot
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent out of the post Lie year with
Speaker 1: Golden State was really good in post up situations, including passes.
Speaker 1: It just gives him another option to, you know, send
Speaker 1: him up to run a ball scream with Jamal Murray
Speaker 1: that probably is going to lead to a switch, at
Speaker 1: which point Jamal doesn't have to just attack the big
Speaker 1: on the switch, he can also dump it into Dario
Speaker 1: Sarge and Darius Sarge can go to work in the post.
Speaker 1: Hopefully that generates more rotation situations for them. Denver's bench
Speaker 1: has been bad even when they won the title, So like,
Speaker 1: there's not really they have nowhere to go but up
Speaker 1: on that and on that side of things, and so like,
Speaker 1: it just kind of gives it a lot more margin
Speaker 1: fair because they're already they've already been so bad on
Speaker 1: the bench. Christian Brown moving into the starting lineup, he's
Speaker 1: not the offensive player that KCP is. He was four
Speaker 1: for nineteen on jump shots in the playoffs. He's one
Speaker 1: for eight so far in preseason on jump shots. Most importantly,
Speaker 1: the teams aren't guarding him out there when he catch
Speaker 1: in preseason, when he's coming off with the starters and
Speaker 1: getting dribble handoffs, guys are going underneath the pick and
Speaker 1: just basically can seating the shot to him. So he's
Speaker 1: gonna need to eventually hit shots more consistently, especially in
Speaker 1: terms of just the overall spacing, but he can be
Speaker 1: helpful in other ways. He's a big, strong athlete, right
Speaker 1: so off ball screening, cutting corner crashes, he's the getting
Speaker 1: offensive rebounds just by being a better athlete running out
Speaker 1: of the corner, transition pushes, just kind of hitting the
Speaker 1: jets in transition when he sees angles. There are ways
Speaker 1: for him to compensate for the KCP offensive gap, but
Speaker 1: he is a legitimate size and athleticism upgrade over KCP,
Speaker 1: and I think Christian Brown is overall a better and
Speaker 1: more versatile defender. One of the big things I've been
Speaker 1: talking a lot about over the course of the summer
Speaker 1: is the concept of keeping Aaron Gordon in help. One
Speaker 1: of the issues that Denver has had, especially in the
Speaker 1: Western Conference that has all these star forwards, right Like
Speaker 1: in the Western Conference, it's like here comes Lebron, you know,
Speaker 1: in years past, here comes Kawhi, here comes Kevin Durant.
Speaker 1: You know, it's just it's big star forward after big
Speaker 1: star forward, and so the option that Denver had in
Speaker 1: those cases was to put Aaron Gordon on him because
Speaker 1: KCP just wasn't big and strong enough to guard those
Speaker 1: kinds of forwards. And as soon as you put Aaron
Speaker 1: Gordon on a perimeter defender that is generating shots now
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, if the defense skews that way
Speaker 1: and you end up in rotation, now on the backside,
Speaker 1: you don't have six ' ten Aaron Gordon and help
Speaker 1: you have him on the ball, and so your help
Speaker 1: side defense just becomes smaller, less athletic, less impactful. By
Speaker 1: virtue of Christian Brown being bigger and stronger than KCP
Speaker 1: and he is big and strong enough to guard forwards,
Speaker 1: that allows you to keep Aaron Gordon and help more frequently,
Speaker 1: which will help your defensive rebounding and help your help
Speaker 1: side defense and just in general make you bigger and
Speaker 1: more athletic a lot. There's a trade off going from
Speaker 1: KCP to Christian Brown. I think ACP is a better
Speaker 1: player than Christian Brown at this point in his career,
Speaker 1: but that gap is smaller than I think people think,
Speaker 1: and I don't think Christian Brown going into the starting
Speaker 1: lineup is that much of a downgrade. They definitely need
Speaker 1: some of these young guys to pop in terms of
Speaker 1: just their depth for the regular season. Like Julian Strawther,
Speaker 1: he's been shooting the ball well in preseason, how well
Speaker 1: is he gonna play this year? Peyton Watson, he's been
Speaker 1: dealing with the hamstring injury. Young guys popping will go
Speaker 1: a long way towards helping them in the regular season.
Speaker 1: But there's no question that this Denver team is a
Speaker 1: lot younger and not as deep as they were when
Speaker 1: they won the title. We can like hope for a
Speaker 1: certain amount of development in progress, but there's really only
Speaker 1: one surefire way that Denver can maintain their high ceiling
Speaker 1: in this phase of their timeline. In terms of roster building,
Speaker 1: Yokich and Murray have to get back to what they
Speaker 1: were in twenty twenty three. Both guys declined last year.
Speaker 1: Jokicch wasn't as good defensively in twenty twenty four as
Speaker 1: he was in twenty twenty three, and he completely lost
Speaker 1: the ability to shoot the basketball relative to where he
Speaker 1: was a Yokics jump shot in the playoffs last year.
Speaker 1: Each single jump shot was worth zero point three to
Speaker 1: eight points less per shot than it was worth in
Speaker 1: the title year. Think about that, four tenths of a
Speaker 1: point per shot worse than what it was when they
Speaker 1: won the title, and it became a massive problem, especially
Speaker 1: in the Minnesota series, where like he started popping in
Speaker 1: ball screens and Minnesota was like, go ahead, shoot it
Speaker 1: out there, We're not worried about it. And again that
Speaker 1: was a huge part of their offense in the title run.
Speaker 1: Yokitch made thirty five threes in the title run and
Speaker 1: that doesn't even factor in the fact that he was
Speaker 1: driving closeouts in those situations as guys were chasing him
Speaker 1: off the line. One more stat to drive this home.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty three, Jo Kich rolls which includes pops,
Speaker 1: We're worth one point two six points per possession in
Speaker 1: this last playoff run one point zero seven, so two
Speaker 1: tenths of a point worse. Converting role possessions spot up
Speaker 1: possessions in the title year one point one six last
Speaker 1: year in the playoffs one point zero zero, so point
Speaker 1: one six points per possession worse. Yo Kich with a
Speaker 1: deadly jump shot is by far the best player in
Speaker 1: the NBA. Yo Kitch with a broken jump shot is
Speaker 1: the best player in the NBA, but by a slim margin,
Speaker 1: Like in my opinion, I haven't met number one, but
Speaker 1: I think Luca's right there. When you'll get to shooting
Speaker 1: forty five percent from three, no one can mess with him.
Speaker 1: He's just better than everybody by a wide margin. That's
Speaker 1: the difference. And then lastly, obviously that defense and conditioning piece,
Speaker 1: where it's like, looks like he ran out of gas
Speaker 1: a little bit in the last year's playoffs and guys
Speaker 1: were just starting to beat him to the basket, beat
Speaker 1: him offensive rebounds, and some of that was He's just
Speaker 1: played a ton of basketball over the course the last
Speaker 1: couple of years, right, But like him getting back to
Speaker 1: defensively where he was in twenty twenty three and as
Speaker 1: a shooter where he was in twenty twenty three, that's
Speaker 1: a massive influx of talent to this roster and their
Speaker 1: ability to win games. Jamal Murray will keep it real simple.
Speaker 1: In the twenty twenty three playoffs, he averaged twenty six
Speaker 1: points on fifty nine percent true shooting. In the twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four playoffs, he averaged twenty one points on forty
Speaker 1: seven percent true shooting. Yes, he heard his calf, but
Speaker 1: he was already struggling before that happened. The two game
Speaker 1: winners against the Lakers salvaged what was a pretty bad
Speaker 1: playoff run for him. He had more shot at ten
Speaker 1: then points in this playoff runt. So like, if he
Speaker 1: can get back in shape, if he can get healthy
Speaker 1: and get back to that level, that goes a long
Speaker 1: way towards buying them margin for air. So kind of
Speaker 1: in synopsis here, everyone seems ready to give up on
Speaker 1: the Denver Nuggets. I saw another anonymous executive quote the
Speaker 1: other day about how the Nuggets are stuck and overrated
Speaker 1: because Michael Porter Junior is a one way player and
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray's on the decline and all this kind of stuff.
Speaker 1: I obviously still have them as my second best team
Speaker 1: in the entire league. So why am I still so
Speaker 1: high on the Denver Nuggets. I'm gonna put it in
Speaker 1: a very simple way to start. In twenty twenty three,
Speaker 1: when Yokich and Murray were at the top of their games,
Speaker 1: they demolished everyone. They played good teams loaded with stars
Speaker 1: in every round, and they weren't even remotely threatened on
Speaker 1: their way to getting the trophy. In twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: Everything went wrong right. They lost depth, they lost Bruce Brown,
Speaker 1: they lost Jeff Green. Jokic declined to a certain extent,
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray declined to a certain extent. A bunch of
Speaker 1: stuff went south for them, and they were still up
Speaker 1: by twenty in the second half of Game seven with
Speaker 1: a trip to the Western Conference Finals on the line.
Speaker 1: And if they would have gotten to the Western Conference Finals,
Speaker 1: I would have picked them to be Dallas. They certainly
Speaker 1: would have been favored in Vegas. Dallas doesn't have the
Speaker 1: front line to deal with Jokic the way that Minnesota
Speaker 1: did in terms of like big strong athletes on the
Speaker 1: front line that can bang with him, like Denver would
Speaker 1: have been favored. Maybe Dallas wins, who knows, but Denver
Speaker 1: would have been favored. So, even with everything going south,
Speaker 1: they were this close to being favored in the conference
Speaker 1: finals to go to the NBA Finals. So, like, think
Speaker 1: about how high that is as a floor. The team
Speaker 1: was worse by almost every measure, and they were basically
Speaker 1: one bad run, a few minutes of bad basketball away
Speaker 1: from being favored to go to the finals. That was
Speaker 1: so much going wrong. Why is their floor that high?
Speaker 1: Because they have the best player in the world by
Speaker 1: some margin depending on how well he shoots the jump shot,
Speaker 1: and they have a perfectly compliment and starting five Aaron
Speaker 1: Gordon is still one of the best four men in
Speaker 1: the league. Michael Porter Junior is still one of the
Speaker 1: very best weak side spacers in the league who's also
Speaker 1: a good health defender and a good defensive rebounder. Jamal
Speaker 1: Murray still makes for a devastating two man game with
Speaker 1: then Kol Jokich. It's a rock solid foundation and so
Speaker 1: if Jokich and Murray can return to form, they can
Speaker 1: just be that much better. People are wishing and hoping
Speaker 1: on the downfall of the Denver Nuggets, and I'm not
Speaker 1: there yet. They accomplished too much last year for so
Speaker 1: much going wrong, and I think a lot more is
Speaker 1: going to go right this season. They are my pick
Speaker 1: to win the Western Conference this year. All right, guys,
Speaker 1: that's all I have for today. We'll be back tomorrow
Speaker 1: with some preseason reaction, getting to some of the teams
Speaker 1: we haven't hit yet. As always, I sincerely appreciate you
Speaker 1: guys for supporting the show and I will see you
Speaker 1: then the volume. What's so, guys? As always, I appreciate
Speaker 1: you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight. It would
Speaker 1: actually be really helpful for us if you guys would
Speaker 1: take a second and leave a rating and a review.
Speaker 1: As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if
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