1 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: Right, welcome in like you is lie. It is Tuesday, 2 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,240 Speaker 1: not October twenty sixth year of our lower twenty twenty 3 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 1: one jam packed high a top downtown Nashville, Tennessee. But 4 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: gotta be honest with you. Woke up a little bit 5 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 1: nervous slash concern even this morning. And the concern was because, 6 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 1: oh no, we got a show tonight, and that's not 7 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 1: a bad thing in and of itself. We love having shows. 8 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: That's why we do them three nights a week instead 9 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:35,520 Speaker 1: of just one night a week. The concern, friends, lied 10 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 1: in the fact that my and I want to stress 11 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: my Atlanta Braves open Game one of the World Series tonight, 12 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 1: and the two entities were going to start at the 13 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 1: same time. But then somebody whispered in my ear, Hey, idiot, 14 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 1: it's your show and it's on YouTube, so you can 15 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 1: do whatever you want to. So I texted director Colin. 16 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 1: I said, Colin, is this true? He said, yeah, it's true. 17 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 1: I was the one whispering, by the way, And so 18 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: here we arety minutes early. Why are we starting thirty 19 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 1: minutes early? Well, because we can, and because a large 20 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 1: chunk of this viewer base also happens to reside in 21 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,119 Speaker 1: a geographical area that roots for the Atlanta Braves. And 22 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: as far as you're concerned that geographical area should be 23 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: the world, it's nobody who's got time for the Houston Astros. 24 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 1: I don't so Tonight we have got Week nine predictions. 25 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: We are going to be an East Lansing, Michigan Saturday. 26 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,119 Speaker 1: So we're gonna pick Michigan Michigan State tonight. We're gonna 27 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 1: pick Georgia, Florida tonight. Some interesting angles to take there, 28 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,479 Speaker 1: Ole Miss Auburn. Could that actually be the best game 29 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 1: in the SEC? For all we know? Could it be 30 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 1: the best game in the country Saturday? A lot of intrigue, 31 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:41,320 Speaker 1: a lot of intriguing mystery even surrounding a lot of 32 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: these games. Also, we're gonna have a new JP pole tonight. 33 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: As you would imagine, as the upsets continue to happen, 34 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 1: as the narrow victories continue to happen, there is movement. 35 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 1: There's even movement in the top ten this week. All 36 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: that and I am throwing two more added best bet 37 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 1: logs on the Rama Noodle Express Fire at Late Kick Josh, 38 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: Twitter and Instagram can't stress it enough. It's where you 39 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 1: need to be a ton of content that you don't 40 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: get on the show or even on the podcast. You 41 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 1: can find there. What a situation, by the way, is 42 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 1: we dive into the show tonight. What a situation we 43 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 1: have setting up Saturday. So I was talking to some 44 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: officials at Michigan State today, and as you know, we're 45 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 1: going to be in town, but we're not a massive 46 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 1: operation like maybe the Fox Pregame show is, or like 47 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 1: College Game Day is, and both of those are going 48 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: to be on campus there at Michigan State same time 49 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: this Saturday. I know it's happened before. I've never been 50 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: on a location to my knowledge, at least where both 51 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 1: were there. But I was talking to the folks at 52 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: Michigan State today. Not only are they both there, but 53 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,919 Speaker 1: remember this is a noon kickoff, and so the ending, 54 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 1: well it's a new and Eastern time kickoff eleven am Central, 55 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: but the ending of those pregame shows runs right up 56 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:49,359 Speaker 1: to the kickoff of those games. And so, as you've 57 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 1: seen before, sometimes with those pregame shows, they will have 58 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: the last hour inside the stadium that the game's taking 59 00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 1: place in. Well, that's happening Saturday, not just with the 60 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 1: Fox Show, but also with the ESPN Show. The only 61 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: time that you really see that is maybe pregame for 62 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: a National championship game or at the Super Bowl, because 63 00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:11,360 Speaker 1: you've got NFL Network and then you got obviously the 64 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: broadcast team for the network it's carrying the game. Nope, 65 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:15,519 Speaker 1: we're going to have it right here in week nine 66 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 1: in East Lansing, Michigan. So we are trying to set 67 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 1: up our pregame live shots, is what I was talking 68 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: to them about. So we're trying to kind of him 69 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: harror our way around this set over here, that set 70 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 1: over there. We'll figure it out. The folks at Michigan 71 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: State have been very workable on this, so let's dive 72 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: into tonight's show. I want to start in Jacksonville, though. 73 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 1: That's where Florida and Georgia are playing. This game. I 74 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 1: rarely miss I mean I rarely missed this when I 75 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: wasn't there last year for obvious reasons because it wasn't 76 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 1: worth going on the road because we couldn't really do anything. 77 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: But before that, I've been at this game the last 78 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 1: several years, so we're going to break that streak. Georgia 79 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: a fourteen point favorite at Caesars right now, it's the 80 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 1: Saturday three point thirty game Eastern time on CBS. Let 81 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 1: me ask you a question. You know what the perception 82 00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: is right now. Everybody who's watched Georgia, everybody who's watched Florida, 83 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: especially as of late, you know what the perception is. 84 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: So as we watch this game, this game of college 85 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 1: football that we all love more and more, how many 86 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 1: times have you seen perception just get thrown into a blender? 87 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: I mean, it's so rarely that easy to figure out. 88 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: And so I know a lot of people are looking 89 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: at this game and you're saying, well, based on what 90 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,479 Speaker 1: LSU did on the ground, Georgia should easily run for 91 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 1: two fifty, right, and also Florida, based on what we've 92 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 1: seen this year and what we've seen from Georgia defensively, 93 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 1: Florida should not be able to sustain enough drives and 94 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 1: enough offense to be able to hang in this game. Right. 95 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 1: And so we say all that, and that equals thirty 96 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: to ten in the fourth quarter. And I just ask 97 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 1: you to open this show and to open this preview. 98 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:47,160 Speaker 1: Is it going to be that easy? Sometimes it works 99 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,279 Speaker 1: out that way. The better teams, you know, the Alabamas 100 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: of the world. Over the last several years, Alabama's gone 101 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:54,919 Speaker 1: into a lot of games where you thought it was 102 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 1: predictable and it ended up playing out exactly how you 103 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:01,039 Speaker 1: would have predicted. But there's also sometimes some volatility in 104 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:03,159 Speaker 1: these games. Now, I know that if you were looking 105 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 1: at Florida right now and you're trying to find a 106 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 1: reason why perception will not be reality Saturday, there's this 107 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 1: anecdotal argument that I think you could make, okay, And 108 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 1: I don't know that you should feel that bad about 109 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: saying what I'm about to say. If I were trying 110 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 1: to put together a case where Florida wins this game, 111 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: or at least they're right there in the fourth quarter, 112 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:25,359 Speaker 1: I would say, you know, last year, who did Florida 113 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,279 Speaker 1: play their worst game against? The answer would be LSU, 114 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 1: just like this year. And then I would ask who 115 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: did Florida play their best game against? And my answer 116 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:35,720 Speaker 1: would be Alabama. Even though they lost the game, they 117 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 1: played the eventual national champ, one of the best teams 118 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 1: I've ever seen, to within one score in the SEC 119 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 1: title game. And then the third question I would ask 120 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:47,279 Speaker 1: is did the Bama game come before or after that 121 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 1: LSU game? And the answer is Florida's best game came 122 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: after their worst game. Stands to reason if we're to 123 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: make of that something related to this year, that maybe 124 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: we just saw Florida play their worst game against LSU, 125 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 1: maybe their best game is yet to come. There is 126 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:07,279 Speaker 1: no data behind that. That is purely circumstantial. It's purely 127 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 1: just trying to wish it into existence. Otherwise you could 128 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: very well be looking at thirty to ten in the 129 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 1: fourth quarter. So grabbing points early I think will be 130 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 1: so huge for Florida. Here, everything about Georgia, everything you've 131 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: seen from them this year, starting with the Clemson game 132 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:25,360 Speaker 1: and running right up to present day, it's all been 133 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,600 Speaker 1: predicated on something. And it's not just winning. It's how 134 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:31,719 Speaker 1: they've been winning. It's predicated on controlling the game the 135 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 1: entire time. They haven't had JT. Daniels. Why hasn't it 136 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 1: mattered because no one has forced them to come from behind. 137 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: It's just not a spot Georgie has been put in. 138 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 1: That's not by accident. It's cause they're really good. It's 139 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: because they're the best team in the country. We got 140 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: JP Pole later tonight. Little spoiler alert, that team in 141 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 1: red and black still number one. So it's not coincidence 142 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 1: that they've grabbed these leads, but it's also not impossible 143 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 1: that you could maybe flip the script on them. If 144 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,840 Speaker 1: Florida's got a shot in this game, certainly they have 145 00:06:59,920 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 1: to grab points early. Number one. They need to do 146 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 1: it for the obvious reason to put Georgia in unfamiliar territory. 147 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: I'm also halfway a believer they need to do it 148 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 1: to convince themselves they got a shot here, because I 149 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 1: think one of the big hidden questions, well it's not hidden, 150 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 1: it's right out in front of the open. One of 151 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 1: the big questions here is what kind of Florida team 152 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: is even showing up? Where is that locker room? Mentally, 153 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: there's been a lot of there's been a lot of 154 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 1: kind of yapping back and forth down there, but not 155 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: between the two teams. It's kind of been between the 156 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 1: coaching staff and the players about what happened in the 157 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 1: LSU game. It's kind of weird. You don't normally see 158 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: that so public and so front facing. So I don't 159 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: know where Florida is, but I'm telling you you can 160 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 1: forget all that if you leave Georgia ten to nothing. 161 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: That sounds so crazy to even say, because we haven't 162 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: really seen it this year, but everything about Georgia has 163 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: been predicated so far. I'm playing with the lead. Now. 164 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: The other thing that Florida's got to have, and I 165 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: know this sounds very steep, but this is just the 166 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: reality of what you're gonna need in order to try 167 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 1: and pull off an upset is you've got to not 168 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: only have Anthony Richardson taking a vast majority of the snaps, 169 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: and I believe that will happen quarterback there for Florida, 170 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 1: But I also believe this is where it gets steep. 171 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: He's got to play relatively mistake free football against the 172 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 1: best defense in the country with very limited experience. So 173 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 1: could it happen? Sure, Crazier things have happened. Is that 174 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: something that you want to bank on happening? I don't 175 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: necessarily want to do that, but like I said, crazier 176 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 1: things have happened. Now, what I envision if Florida grabs 177 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 1: an early lead, if Florida's offense is rolling a little 178 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 1: bit more than maybe anticipated, if you start applying the 179 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: old metaphorical water pressure against the Georgia dam, and maybe, oh, look, 180 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 1: there are a couple of cracks that we didn't know existed. 181 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 1: It's probably going to come via the RPO game and 182 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:47,839 Speaker 1: the added strain that mobility at quarterback and the kind 183 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 1: of athlete at quarterback that Richardson gives Florida can do 184 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 1: to you, and then the other thing. I think it 185 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: seems like common sense, but you got to go right 186 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 1: back to the well, don't you last year it was 187 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 1: a nightmare for Georgia defensively trying to cover running backs 188 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: in the passing game. Well, I mean, I'm sure they've 189 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 1: worked on it, but my goodness, don't you have to 190 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 1: find out how much they've worked on it. So if 191 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,720 Speaker 1: Florida grabs an early lead, that's probably the way it looks. 192 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 1: Regardless though, now switching to Georgia, one of the big 193 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 1: talking points coming in here for both teams is which 194 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: quarterbacks are going to play? How many snaps are each 195 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 1: quarterback going to play. I don't really care particularly who 196 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: starts at quarterback for Georgia, and I don't particularly care 197 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:28,319 Speaker 1: how the snaps are divvied up. I will tell you 198 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: my main question, regardless of who's taking the snaps for 199 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:35,359 Speaker 1: Georgia is how much will be asked of the quarterback 200 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 1: position in this game. Because I tell you two things. 201 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: We're talking about teams finding out something early. Two teams 202 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 1: or two things that Kirby Smart Todd monket are going 203 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:45,839 Speaker 1: to want to find out and will find out really early. 204 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,680 Speaker 1: Number one, does Florida have the chest if you will 205 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 1: to stand in there and stop the run or just 206 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: limit it. Not stop the run, but limit it. And secondly, 207 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 1: Florida is a very very poor tackling team in space. 208 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 1: I was reading some of Jake stuff today over on 209 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: Dogs twenty four to seven. He's right about this, Florida 210 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 1: not the best team in preventing yards after catch. And 211 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: so I want you to picture something for me. Picture 212 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 1: you're watching this game and Georgia is averaging over six 213 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 1: yards per carry getting up into that LSU running territory 214 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 1: against Florida. Well, if they're doing that, all the rest 215 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 1: of this stuff's irrelevant. We could make this preview video 216 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: thirty seconds long and slash. Or if Georgia is completing 217 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 1: essentially glorified runs, just extensions of the run game, these 218 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 1: short screens and slants and whatnot, and then they're ripping 219 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 1: off chunks after the catch, then it's also irrelevant. I 220 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 1: know people picture in their mind whichever quarterback we put 221 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 1: in there, you know he's going to have to make 222 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 1: some threaded needle throws over the middle, gonna have to 223 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:49,599 Speaker 1: hit that twenty five yard out from the far hash. No, 224 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 1: in all likelihood they're not gonna have to if those 225 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 1: things are trending in the right direction for Georgia. To 226 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 1: me to go back to a point I just made before, 227 00:10:58,080 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 1: we look at what the model thinks on this game. 228 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: To be clear, the biggest unknown, you know, the biggest 229 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 1: thing that's sort of like that distant sound that canarian 230 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,440 Speaker 1: the coal mine that I have no clue what to 231 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 1: expect from, is the different kind of pressure that we 232 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: know a Dan Mullen offense can put on a defense. 233 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:22,679 Speaker 1: And then if any leaks are exposed, what are they translation? 234 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:25,200 Speaker 1: Even if Georgia may win the game, maybe it's just 235 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:27,559 Speaker 1: closer than you think it is. Do we come out 236 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 1: of this game Saturday from Jacksonville and saying either Wow, 237 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 1: Florida pulled the outright upset, in which case the headlines 238 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 1: take care of themselves, or wow, Georgia one thirty to 239 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:41,079 Speaker 1: twenty four. But boy, did you see this? This and this? 240 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:44,199 Speaker 1: I didn't expect that that Georgia defense in this spot, 241 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 1: in that spot. That's something to keep tucked away down 242 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 1: the road. If they play Alabama or if they're in 243 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:52,079 Speaker 1: the playoff against fill in the blank. That's the biggest unknown. 244 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: And like I said, the other unknown is what kind 245 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 1: of Florida team do we even get show up. Let's 246 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 1: take a look at what the model thinks here. You're 247 00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: looking at the rivalry history chunks three three three. Well, Florida, Hey, 248 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 1: they got a streak, and it's not a streak until 249 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 1: you win multiple so they don't quite have a streak yet. 250 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 1: But let's take a look at what the model think. 251 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: So the Las Vegas number right now is Georgia minus fourteen. 252 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 1: My feel is that that's going to go north of fourteen. 253 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 1: So if you want to bet Georgia, I'd probably do 254 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 1: it right now. Our model is a little bit north 255 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:22,319 Speaker 1: of fourteen. It's got Georgia minus fifteen and a half. 256 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 1: Here's what I came back to. What I came back 257 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 1: to is I love Georgia to win the game because 258 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:31,840 Speaker 1: I'm more confident in Georgia to win the game. I 259 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 1: actually think the style of play they're going to be 260 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 1: able to incorporate is one that shaves down a lot 261 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 1: of possession time, shaves down a lot of game time 262 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 1: in general, and ends up playing out in a manner 263 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 1: where they are running the ball effectively enough where they 264 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: don't have to stretch the field a whole lot and 265 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 1: take a whole lot of chances in the passing game. 266 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 1: And as a result, we look at a final score 267 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 1: that appears to be close when you apply traditional standards 268 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: of football, but in reality is not nearly as close 269 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: as the final score indicates. So at that two touchdown mark, 270 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 1: I am actually slightly leaned over towards taking Florida and 271 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 1: the points. However, I feel supremely confident in taking Georgia 272 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 1: to win the game. And what I'm telling you is 273 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 1: I'm not taking Florida plus the points, and also thinking 274 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: in the back of my mind, well, you know, I 275 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:17,560 Speaker 1: might as well put a little on the money line. 276 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 1: That's not where my head's out on that one. So 277 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: I like Georgia to win, slightly lean Florida to cover, 278 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 1: and am very interested, regardless of the outcome, to see 279 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:29,079 Speaker 1: if we're saying anything different about Georgia on the other 280 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 1: side than we are right now gonna be a great 281 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 1: scene down in Jacksonville. First time you've got all the 282 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 1: fan bases down there. In a couple of years, I'm 283 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 1: gonna be at Michigan State. Stands to reason we're going 284 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:43,679 Speaker 1: to have a great to unprecedented scene up there, given 285 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 1: all the here's the word word confluence. It's our word 286 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 1: of the year, the confluence of all the different elements 287 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 1: coming into place. And regardless of where you are, if 288 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 1: you're hitting that tailgate scene, Academy Sports and Outdoors is 289 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 1: where you need to be. I have been speaking to 290 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 1: some of you as recently as this appen afternoon that 291 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 1: we're talking to me up north, you know there. I 292 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 1: can't actually vouch for this because I didn't look at 293 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: the map. There may indeed be a few less Academy 294 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 1: Sports and Outdoors brick and mortar locations the further north 295 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 1: you get. But you guys were hitting me up saying, well, 296 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 1: thank the Good Lord for Academy dot Com. That's really 297 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 1: irrelevant at this point, and that is true. Academy dot 298 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 1: Com comes through for you every bit as much as 299 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 1: Academy Sports and Outdoors in person comes through. You get 300 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 1: to experience the friendly staff for instance, if you go indoors, 301 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 1: but Academy Sports and Outdoors. Either way, you need the grills, 302 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: you need the canopies, you need long sleeves in lieu 303 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 1: of short sleeves. I don't know why anyone would choose 304 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 1: to live that way. God intended your arms to be 305 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 1: free and clear, but thirty eight degrees can paint a 306 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: different picture for the wardrobe selection. Academy Sports and Outdoors, 307 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 1: it's what you want to hit up. They've got everything 308 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 1: you could possibly need, and dare I say a little 309 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 1: bit extra, So hit them up. Academy dot com Official 310 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: Outdoor Sporting Good supplier of the Big Twelve, of the 311 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 1: SEC and of Late Kick. Thank you so much that 312 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 1: partnership has meant the world to us. Well speak of 313 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: the speak of the unprecedented confluence of events this Saturday. 314 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 1: How about Michigan at Michigan State both undefeated, Michigan laying 315 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: about what four and a half points at the moment 316 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 1: as we record, the Late Kick Renaissance Tour is headed up. 317 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: It's going to be great, It's going to be big 318 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 1: ten weather. There was no way that this was going 319 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: to be anything other than mid to upper forties and 320 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: gray dreary, because that is big ten weather around Halloween 321 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 1: and any point later in the season. Hey, I want 322 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: to remind you of something. It's called the recalibration of expectation. 323 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 1: And it's not a Vanilla I song. What it is 324 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,440 Speaker 1: is this epidemic that a lot of people suffer from 325 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 1: around this point in the year. And here's what I 326 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 1: mean when it comes to these two teams. When it 327 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 1: came to August and we were looking at preseason win totals, 328 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 1: Michigan's over underwent total was eight, Michigan State's over under 329 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 1: win total was full. Both of them are seven and zero. 330 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: Right now, why do I mention that? Well, I want 331 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 1: to remind you now how the recalibration of expectation works. 332 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 1: Once you get to a certain point in the season, 333 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: people forget what the preseason expectation was and they start 334 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 1: defining and then redefining their new expectation of you based 335 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 1: off the current results. And it's happening right now. It's 336 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 1: happening with Michigan, it's happening with Michigan State. I'm not 337 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 1: a fan of it because it leads to these out 338 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 1: of whack reactions based on results without any context. Taken 339 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 1: into account, here's what you should be thinking. What you 340 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,360 Speaker 1: should be thinking is, well, regardless of who wins Saturday, 341 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 1: both of these teams have mildly too massively overachieved this year. 342 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 1: That's what I'll think. But what's going to happen is 343 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 1: someone's going to have to lose. Even if you play 344 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:53,160 Speaker 1: quote unquote nine overtimes, Someone's going to have to lose here. 345 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 1: And because the expectation level has now been recalibrated and 346 00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 1: enough people are talking Big ten title possibility or fringe 347 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 1: playoff contender. Once you lose a game, and maybe one 348 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:07,240 Speaker 1: of these teams loses two or three games, all of 349 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 1: a sudden, you're gonna have heat, you're gonna have criticism, 350 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 1: and you're gonna have people complaining that they fell short 351 00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 1: of the mark. No, they didn't. Either of these teams 352 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 1: finishes nine to three. They have exceeded all possible expectation. 353 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 1: Michigan State already has by three games, and we're not 354 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 1: even to No one's even carved a pumpkin yet, and 355 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 1: Michigan State has already hit the over by three games. 356 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 1: It's a huge testament to both coaching staffs, especially Michigan State. 357 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:34,879 Speaker 1: But both coaching stafs. So now let's get into the 358 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 1: game classic earn the right to rush the passer sort 359 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:42,200 Speaker 1: of game for Michigan State. One of my favorite adages, 360 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 1: you may have the best pass rush in the world, 361 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:47,199 Speaker 1: but if they're consistently sitting on second and four and 362 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 1: third and one against you, you don't really get to 363 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 1: feature the pass rush, which means Michigan State defensively needs 364 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 1: to win some first downs here and it would not 365 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: be the craziest thing in the world. We have seen 366 00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 1: some defenses have relative success against Michigan. Michigan still found 367 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,439 Speaker 1: a way to win, but it hasn't always been the 368 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 1: way we saw them win the first couple of weeks, 369 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:08,880 Speaker 1: which was just run for half a mile and don't 370 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 1: even worry about throwing the ball. Well, they've had to 371 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 1: do it a couple times they've been successful. But the 372 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,119 Speaker 1: best shot Michigan State has here is to instead of 373 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:18,240 Speaker 1: looking at second and four, be looking at a second 374 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: and eight, be looking at a third and six. I'll 375 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:21,919 Speaker 1: tell you what I'll count in this game. Sometimes I 376 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 1: have some favorite stats that I like to look at. 377 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 1: In this particular game, I think the amount of third 378 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:32,360 Speaker 1: and six pluses that Michigan finds themselves in offensively will 379 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:35,399 Speaker 1: directly correlate to the way that the outcome looks on 380 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 1: the scoreboard here. But also, I mean this is obvious. 381 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 1: You get them into more obvious passing downs in late 382 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 1: now situations. You give yourself the ability to feature a staple, 383 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 1: which is your pass rush. That means you get to 384 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 1: affect the quarterback, which means you get to potentially force 385 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 1: more mistakes. Of course you could get turnovers out of that, 386 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:57,239 Speaker 1: but also Michigan far less likely to convert there, and 387 00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 1: that keeps them from tilting critical factors in the game. 388 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:04,240 Speaker 1: Because what you don't want because you, as Michigan State, 389 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 1: tend to be a more quick strike offense, which is 390 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: a lot of risk reward, but it also the risk 391 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:11,919 Speaker 1: there in lies that you could be sitting there with 392 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 1: forty five to twenty four plays run at the half. 393 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 1: You don't want that because that puts Michigan in perfect 394 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 1: situation just quicksands you to death in the second half. 395 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 1: So that's the first thing to watch. Second thing, we 396 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,120 Speaker 1: have an acronym around here. The first thing you want 397 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,120 Speaker 1: to do is PYC, which is pull your cord up. 398 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 1: There's a U on the end of that, so pull 399 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: out of your ear. The second thing is bob and 400 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:38,919 Speaker 1: that is bounce of ball. This is a bounce of 401 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 1: ball game. It is a small margin for error game, 402 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,840 Speaker 1: and it's one of those games of inches sort of adages. 403 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 1: It gets thrown around a lot and overused, but it's 404 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,159 Speaker 1: not overused in this game. I want to know if 405 00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: anything changed for Michigan State over the bye week, because 406 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:57,159 Speaker 1: as undefeated as they may be right now, they have 407 00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: struggled with penalties and they have not been the best 408 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: third down team in the world. Now, the best staffs 409 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 1: out there, and I think mel Tucker's got one the 410 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 1: best staffs out there, tend to clean that sort of 411 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 1: thing up coming out of the buy. You should be 412 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,359 Speaker 1: at this point in the year. You should give me 413 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 1: the best version of yourself coming out of the buy. 414 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 1: And you may look and you may have said, I 415 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 1: already expected multiple losses on Michigan State's resume. Well, hey, 416 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:26,359 Speaker 1: this is a positive recalibration of expectations. They're undefeated, but 417 00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 1: I do not believe they've played their best football yet. 418 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,600 Speaker 1: I don't think they believe they've played their best football yet. 419 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 1: They still have their best game out there. Now, I'd 420 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 1: counter that by saying, Michigan staff and University of Michigan 421 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,439 Speaker 1: fans probably believe the exact same thing about their squad. 422 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 1: Someone's going to come out of this still undefeated. Have 423 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 1: they played their best game in the process. We'll see. 424 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 1: But it's all about to go back to what I 425 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: just talked about. It's all about quicksand versus quick strike 426 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 1: because there are two somewhat differing styles of play here. 427 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 1: You may think from a distance, both of these offenses 428 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 1: probably just plot along and it's more boring, ugly Big 429 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,399 Speaker 1: ten football, which probably means you haven't watched much of 430 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 1: these two teams play this year. They're not all that 431 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 1: similar in offensive style. I know they reside in the 432 00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 1: same state, but that's probably the most broad brush you 433 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 1: could ever paint with the quicksand approach. Is Michigan being 434 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 1: happy to just sit there and lean on you. No 435 00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 1: one folds in the first quarter, No one does. A 436 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 1: lot of folks fold in the fourth quarter. And so, 437 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 1: like we just said, if Michigan's able to start converting, 438 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,159 Speaker 1: if it's not third and six, if it's third and two, 439 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 1: a whole bunch in the first half, and they start converting, 440 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 1: and those critical factors not so much time of possession, 441 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 1: but what time of possession includes, which is a lot 442 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 1: more plays run. If that stuff starts tilting and your 443 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 1: pass rush is kind of neutered, then it shows up 444 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. Michigan's happy to do that. They 445 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 1: are not. They're not a viper, you know, more like 446 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 1: an anaconda. So I call it quicksand but you've also 447 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 1: got quick stripe because that is the way Michigan State 448 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: wins this game. They've got the more likely defense to 449 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 1: four sudden changes popcorners, as I call them their defensive front. 450 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,359 Speaker 1: The pass rush ability specifically is more likely to provide 451 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: a popcorn dropper. They're running back Kenneth Walker is more 452 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,879 Speaker 1: likely to produce a popcorn dropper run. And you've got 453 00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 1: elements at wide receiver and in the passing game with 454 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,720 Speaker 1: Thorn more likely to produce that sudden popcorn dropper type 455 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: of play through the air. Which style wins out? Great question. 456 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:25,880 Speaker 1: Let's take a look at what the model thinks here. 457 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,439 Speaker 1: The Vegas number currently Michigan minus four and a half, 458 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,680 Speaker 1: and that is in East Lansing, So you've got home 459 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,439 Speaker 1: field factored in. So odds makers are telling you we 460 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 1: like Michigan by about six to seven points as better 461 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,880 Speaker 1: than Michigan State on a neutral field. Well we've got 462 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 1: Michigan minus five. That's what the model thinks. What I 463 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 1: came back to is I came back to how tight 464 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 1: I think this game will end up playing out. So 465 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 1: I think there'll be some shots taken by Michigan State early. 466 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 1: I think there'll be some body blows definitely struck by Michigan. 467 00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:58,359 Speaker 1: I think it's going to be really tight in the 468 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: fourth quarter. The reason why I'm going the way I 469 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 1: did is because I do not believe even our model 470 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 1: is accurately factoring, at least numerically, what home field advantage 471 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:10,680 Speaker 1: is worth here, because I think home field advantage is 472 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 1: going to matter. We've seen it in big games all year. 473 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 1: Home field has disproportionately mattered this year, and so I'm 474 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 1: taking probably the most cowardly approach that anyone could take. 475 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:22,120 Speaker 1: I'm going to take Michigan to win the game. There 476 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:23,840 Speaker 1: is no prayer I would lay four and a half. 477 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 1: I think it's that close a game. So if I 478 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,199 Speaker 1: am betting, which I'm not on this one. It is 479 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:30,159 Speaker 1: not an official play by any stretch, I would go 480 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 1: to Michigan State plus four and a half would lean 481 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 1: Michigan to win, and acknowledge all the while it is 482 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,200 Speaker 1: a bob game. It is a bounce of ball game. 483 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,119 Speaker 1: One of them this way versus that way changes the 484 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,159 Speaker 1: outcome here. But what I do love is that we 485 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,280 Speaker 1: get to be there. That's what I do love very much. 486 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:51,159 Speaker 1: Looking forward to that one. All right, another game that 487 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 1: I want to touch on. This one a bunch of 488 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 1: different angles I can go. So I'm going to be 489 00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:00,879 Speaker 1: very tactful about this one. Ole Miss at Auburn. This 490 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,719 Speaker 1: is a night game at Jorden Hare Stadium. Auburn currently 491 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 1: favored by three, so all the way up to a 492 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,879 Speaker 1: field goal. Remember the other night on Sunday when we 493 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 1: made Auburn our early best bet and we got them 494 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,159 Speaker 1: at a pick. There's a reason we moved on that 495 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,920 Speaker 1: game early because we thought that this would move pretty 496 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 1: quickly to right where it is right now, which is 497 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,399 Speaker 1: Auburn minus three. Now, if you want to bet Old Miss, 498 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 1: I do it right now because if anything, that's probably 499 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 1: coming back down a little bit closer to kickoff. Then 500 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,439 Speaker 1: there were some rumors about suspensions and a lot of 501 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 1: you were asking me, Hey, what do you think about 502 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,159 Speaker 1: the suspension rumors for Auburn. Well, the fact that I 503 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 1: never came off that bet publicly probably tells you all 504 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 1: you need to know about what I thought about the rumors. Now, 505 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: I don't want to talk about rumors. Rumors is a 506 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 1: great album by Fleetwood Mackinn. If you want to talk 507 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 1: to me about that off air, I will talk to 508 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 1: you about it off air, But rumors around the program 509 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 1: not interested in talking about it. This could be the 510 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 1: best game in the SEC Saturday. I mean, Ole Mess 511 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 1: versus Auburn could very well be the best game in 512 00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 1: the SEC Saturday. But there's the d out there distraction. 513 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 1: Everyone's worried about distraction. A little word to the wives, 514 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 1: I would be very careful if you're banking on Old 515 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,760 Speaker 1: Miss winning this game, banking on them winning it because 516 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,199 Speaker 1: you think distractions are going to affect the outcome and 517 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 1: they're going to take the knees out from under Auburn 518 00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:17,679 Speaker 1: this week. Let me tell you what I've watched that 519 00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:20,119 Speaker 1: program do already this year. I've watched them lose to 520 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,320 Speaker 1: Penn State and then almost lose to Georgia State and 521 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,480 Speaker 1: fire a receivers, coach, and bench a quarterback and after 522 00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 1: doing all that and having all kind of turmoil seemingly 523 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,399 Speaker 1: engulf the program, go play their best football of the 524 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,679 Speaker 1: year on the road. No less, I've already seen them 525 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,840 Speaker 1: do that. And so I know right now you're looking 526 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,480 Speaker 1: maybe from the outside, and you're seeing all this talking 527 00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 1: about Brian Harson this and he hadn't told us that, 528 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:45,919 Speaker 1: And I'm just warning you you may view it as 529 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,440 Speaker 1: a distraction. You may even be distracted by it. I'd 530 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 1: be careful assuming that inside that Auburn locker room they 531 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 1: care about the same stuff and are focused on the 532 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 1: same things that you're focused on. Be careful there, because 533 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 1: there is an intangible factor in play that I think 534 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 1: will have a direct outcome or direct impact on the 535 00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,919 Speaker 1: outcome of this game. But it ain't distraction. Here's what 536 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,679 Speaker 1: it is. Last four weeks, the Ole Miss Rebels have 537 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 1: played in order at Alabama, Arkansas, at Tennessee, LSU. You 538 00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,639 Speaker 1: know what Auburn did last week? They sat at home. 539 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 1: They're rested. Huge dynamic edge here aside from home field, 540 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:22,880 Speaker 1: huge dynamic edge for Auburn. Going to be a lot 541 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,040 Speaker 1: of focus about the quarterback position going to be a 542 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:26,960 Speaker 1: lot of focus on Matt Corral as there should be 543 00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,400 Speaker 1: a lot of focus on bo Nicks as there should be. 544 00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,639 Speaker 1: I'm watching the Auburn ground game. I'm not even focused 545 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:36,880 Speaker 1: on quarterbacks as the element that will ultimately decide the game. 546 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,880 Speaker 1: You can have the same approach as Tennessee here. Really, 547 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 1: if you're Auburn, the only difference is you just got 548 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:45,960 Speaker 1: to tear off more yards per carry. I mean, Tennessee 549 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 1: I thought had a sound enough approach against Old Miss, 550 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 1: but they did not run the ball consistently enough, and 551 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:54,399 Speaker 1: that's credit to Ole Miss for not allowing them to 552 00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:58,960 Speaker 1: do it. But that plus extensions of the run, it's 553 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:00,280 Speaker 1: kind of the same thing we talked about in the 554 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,919 Speaker 1: Georgia Florida game. If you can run the ball pretty effectively, 555 00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,439 Speaker 1: I don't need seven yards per carry from Auburn. But 556 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,160 Speaker 1: if you can float in that five and a half 557 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 1: to six, that, along with what bo Nicks can do 558 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:16,359 Speaker 1: with his legs, in conjunction with being able to extend 559 00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:19,119 Speaker 1: the ground game via some short passes and screens in 560 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,560 Speaker 1: your own right, that will be enough. That'll be enough 561 00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 1: if you play this game in the manner with which 562 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,399 Speaker 1: you need to play it dictating terms on your end. 563 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 1: I'm not really focused as I sometimes am, on a 564 00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 1: point total that's needed. See, sometimes we're looking at these games, 565 00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 1: like last week the Clemson pit game. It was very 566 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 1: popular and I took part as well. It was very 567 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,360 Speaker 1: popular to ask how many points do you think Clemson 568 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,560 Speaker 1: will need to win this game? I'm not there on 569 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,800 Speaker 1: this game. There is not a point total I'm thinking about. 570 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:51,679 Speaker 1: What I'm thinking about is the same stat that I 571 00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,159 Speaker 1: was thinking about when ole Miss played Alabama. Because you see, 572 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,400 Speaker 1: ole Miss has won a game in the fifties this year. 573 00:27:57,680 --> 00:27:59,600 Speaker 1: They've won a couple of games in the upper twenties, 574 00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:03,159 Speaker 1: low thirdies, but they lost decidedly. The only loss they 575 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,280 Speaker 1: have this year was against Alabama. It wasn't because of 576 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,640 Speaker 1: the just total amount of points Alabama scored. There wasn't 577 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:11,840 Speaker 1: like a certain line they had to get to. It's 578 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 1: cause Alabama one third and fourth down defensively, that's the 579 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,200 Speaker 1: key here. So if you want to look at a statistic, 580 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,400 Speaker 1: it'll be ole Miss offensively, third down fourth down conversion rate. 581 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 1: They were woeful against Alabama, and they've been good enough 582 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,120 Speaker 1: in these other games. So Auburn could win this game. 583 00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 1: In the forties. Auburn could win this game in the 584 00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:30,480 Speaker 1: upper twenties. I could actually see both of those playing out. 585 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 1: Obviously the latter is more likely than the former. But 586 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 1: this is going to sound weird. I'm going to get 587 00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 1: to the prediction here and we're going to take a 588 00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,280 Speaker 1: look at the model things. It's gonna sound kind of weird. 589 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,920 Speaker 1: Given what I think about ole Miss. I know that 590 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 1: these two ideas haven't jibed, which I still think should 591 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:51,440 Speaker 1: be pronounced jibed a misspelling. I've done my whole life 592 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 1: that I have discovered like two weeks ago, and it 593 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,240 Speaker 1: still have not come to terms with it. But these 594 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,880 Speaker 1: two concepts, they're not really meshing. You look at the 595 00:28:57,960 --> 00:28:59,480 Speaker 1: JPE pole, which I'm about to show you in a 596 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 1: few minutes, and you see that we've had ole Miss 597 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:05,360 Speaker 1: consistently ranked higher than the AP has. But yet in 598 00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 1: this game, I'm about to pick Auburn to win, and 599 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,640 Speaker 1: I'm about to pick Auburn to cover spoiler alert, because 600 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 1: I don't like the dynamic. If they were meeting, let's 601 00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,000 Speaker 1: say in Birmingham, and it's a fifty to fifty crowd 602 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 1: split in both teams are coming off the by I'm 603 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 1: picking ole Miss, but I do not like the dynamics 604 00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:23,640 Speaker 1: in play here, and because of that, Auburn is one 605 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:25,600 Speaker 1: of our favorite bets of the week. So let's take 606 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 1: a look at what the model thinks, and let's take 607 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,520 Speaker 1: a look at what Vegas has right now, we've already 608 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:31,480 Speaker 1: showed you they're on the lower third. But if you're 609 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,560 Speaker 1: listening on podcast, Auburn minus three is the current number 610 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 1: as we are live on Tuesday Night. That could always change. 611 00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 1: The model has Auburn stretched up all the way as 612 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 1: a five point favorite. That's our own in house model 613 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:44,960 Speaker 1: for those unfamiliar, and I'm going to roll with it. 614 00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,320 Speaker 1: I see no reason to buck the model. So we're 615 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 1: going to go Auburn to win. We're going to go 616 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:53,600 Speaker 1: Auburn to cover. If they do, then Auburn starts to 617 00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:57,120 Speaker 1: put themselves in position maybe for some interesting conversations down 618 00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,960 Speaker 1: the stretch. However, if we're wrong and ole Miss pull 619 00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,600 Speaker 1: what would be a very mild upset, Ole Miss is 620 00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 1: already in a conversation. It just makes the conversation more interesting. Because, 621 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 1: as of today, if BAMA loses one more gaming conference 622 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,120 Speaker 1: and ole Miss doesn't, Ole Miss goes to Atlanta and 623 00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,520 Speaker 1: if they win Saturday, obviously we keep that alive. And 624 00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,120 Speaker 1: you know, for Alabama, if you can go in there 625 00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 1: as ole miss and win, then you also know, if 626 00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 1: I take care of business, Bama's got to come in 627 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 1: here too at the end of the year and when. 628 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 1: So a lot of things, a lot of very interesting 629 00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 1: dynamics that extend just be on Saturday night that will 630 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 1: take place as a result of the game on the 631 00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,760 Speaker 1: field Saturday night. All right. The way we are going 632 00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,600 Speaker 1: to wrap it up is with the latest edition of 633 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:40,120 Speaker 1: the JP Pole. The JP Pole, for those unfamiliar, is 634 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 1: not a ranking system, just a power rating system. Oklahoma 635 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:45,840 Speaker 1: is going to be a hot button issue in this 636 00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 1: poll because I am looking where we have them. Yeah, 637 00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:50,800 Speaker 1: a little bit lower than the AP. But just to 638 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,719 Speaker 1: give you an idea, if some teams are higher than 639 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 1: you think they should be in some teams are lower 640 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:57,200 Speaker 1: than you think they should be. It's not about what 641 00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:59,680 Speaker 1: their record is. I've got Nebraska in the top twenty 642 00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,120 Speaker 1: five this week, they are below five hundred. I got 643 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,880 Speaker 1: Nebraska above some undefeated teams. All that matters is who 644 00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:07,960 Speaker 1: we would favor against two on a neutral field. Based 645 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,360 Speaker 1: on this model, we mentioned so much has been so 646 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:12,640 Speaker 1: good to us over the years. If they play tomorrow, 647 00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:14,800 Speaker 1: that's all we're caring about here. So having said that, 648 00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:16,920 Speaker 1: we do have some movement. So let's hop into it 649 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,320 Speaker 1: and let's take a look at twenty five through twenty one. 650 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 1: I mentioned Nebraska. Nebraska, it's been pretty consistent. They're floating 651 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:26,000 Speaker 1: right around anywhere from twenty two to twenty eight. That's 652 00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:28,520 Speaker 1: where they've been pretty much all year for us. You 653 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,960 Speaker 1: may wonder, how can a team below five hundred be there. Well, 654 00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:34,800 Speaker 1: you're looking at them, and you're seeing their record. This 655 00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:36,960 Speaker 1: model looks and it sees a bunch of very very 656 00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 1: close losses. The model does not acknowledge the data point zero, 657 00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,240 Speaker 1: the data point of zero, like, for instance, in the 658 00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,040 Speaker 1: world of temperatures, if it's minus one or if it's 659 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:49,920 Speaker 1: plus one, that's all the difference in the world, because 660 00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 1: it's below zero or above zero. In the world of 661 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:56,600 Speaker 1: liquid the difference between thirty one and thirty three makes 662 00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:58,360 Speaker 1: all the difference in the world. You could have it 663 00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,280 Speaker 1: thirty three all day. It's not going to freeze water. 664 00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 1: Thirty one it's going to freeze water. In this model's world, 665 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,680 Speaker 1: it does not care about the point of zero. If 666 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:09,840 Speaker 1: I beat you thirty three to thirty one, I'm one 667 00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 1: and oh you're oh to one. All the model sees 668 00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:14,560 Speaker 1: is just two points difference, That's all it sees. So 669 00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 1: Nebraska's lost a bunch of close games, so they get 670 00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:21,320 Speaker 1: punished in their record. In this kind of future predictive modeling, 671 00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,480 Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter whether they won the games or 672 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 1: lost the games. It only matters just a little bit. 673 00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,720 Speaker 1: So that's why Nebraska's still there. NC State's down a 674 00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,480 Speaker 1: couple of spots at twenty four, Texas is still here. 675 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,440 Speaker 1: You got to understand something about these underachieving but really 676 00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:39,240 Speaker 1: talented teams when it comes to odds making that stuff matters. 677 00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,680 Speaker 1: It matters how talented your roster is when it comes 678 00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 1: to point spreads. So it's harder to knock the Clemsons 679 00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:48,720 Speaker 1: or the Texas or the Florida's out of the top 680 00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:50,520 Speaker 1: twenty five. Having said that Clemson is out of the 681 00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:52,600 Speaker 1: top twenty five, what do we have? We got Oklahoma 682 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 1: State up four spots to number twenty one. You notice that, 683 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:59,320 Speaker 1: do you? Oklahoma State was barely rated for us. They 684 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:03,840 Speaker 1: lost a game, but because they lost to are I'm 685 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,320 Speaker 1: gonna spoil it for you. Are number eighteen in their 686 00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,120 Speaker 1: building and they lost by only three. That's good to 687 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,280 Speaker 1: bump you up in power rating. Land. So Oklahoma State's 688 00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:15,440 Speaker 1: at number twenty one. All right, let's go top twenty here. 689 00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 1: Arkansas's at twenty. They're down three spots. That's largely because 690 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,520 Speaker 1: there was movement around them. Kentucky's still at nineteen. Baylor 691 00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,280 Speaker 1: has jumped a couple of spots to eighteen, and Arizona 692 00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:28,280 Speaker 1: State Michigan State have dropped a couple of spots. Again, 693 00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,240 Speaker 1: it's not because of anything they did. Michigan State was 694 00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:33,200 Speaker 1: off last week. It's because we had some movement elsewhere, 695 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,960 Speaker 1: and there are very small margins in this part of 696 00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:41,160 Speaker 1: the power rating. You've got like four or five points 697 00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:44,480 Speaker 1: that are separating number eight through number twenty. So it's 698 00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:46,960 Speaker 1: very very small margins. That's why you see some movement 699 00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:51,040 Speaker 1: like that. Top fifteen is as follows number fifteen. The 700 00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,480 Speaker 1: Iowa Hawkeyes probably the biggest victim last week, even though 701 00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:56,560 Speaker 1: it was through no fault of their own. We just 702 00:33:56,640 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 1: had some teams improve their own grade and they jumped out. Well. 703 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 1: I was down five spots. The number fifteen. Oregon really 704 00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:08,319 Speaker 1: respected the result there at UCLA, Oregon, according to the model, 705 00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:10,960 Speaker 1: up four spots. Notre Dame's up a few spots to 706 00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,600 Speaker 1: number thirteen. Notre Dame's probably got a second half run 707 00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 1: in them. Here Pence down one to twelve, even though 708 00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:20,040 Speaker 1: they beat Clemson again, it's not punishing Pitt. There are 709 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,880 Speaker 1: teams that moved ahead of them. Penn State is number eleven. 710 00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,360 Speaker 1: Penn State, we got a hard time with them. Right 711 00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,760 Speaker 1: now we dropped them five spots. The model is screaming 712 00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,560 Speaker 1: that it thinks with a fully healthy Sean Clifford, Penn 713 00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:35,120 Speaker 1: State is still a top ten team. The problem is, 714 00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:38,600 Speaker 1: how do you measure how healthy a quarterback was last week? 715 00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,000 Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't think Sean Clifford was one 716 00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:43,600 Speaker 1: hundred percent. But then we're starting to inject a whole 717 00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 1: lot of opinion and gut into this thing, and that's 718 00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,000 Speaker 1: not really what we want. So we got Penn State 719 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:51,480 Speaker 1: at eleven. Now take a look at number ten. Number ten, 720 00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:55,160 Speaker 1: a team that was left for deb by me included Texas, 721 00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:56,960 Speaker 1: A and M is all the way back inside the 722 00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:59,120 Speaker 1: top ten. What the model is seeing is there's just 723 00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:03,200 Speaker 1: the same thing I told supremely talented roster, but now 724 00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,080 Speaker 1: quarterback is starting to come through for them. There are 725 00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:09,640 Speaker 1: three consecutive results now, the Alabama game, the Missouri game, 726 00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:11,560 Speaker 1: in the South Carolina game, where they either met or 727 00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:15,280 Speaker 1: exceeded model expectations, and so it acknowledges that it's bumping 728 00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:17,160 Speaker 1: them up. It's really the kind of the crux of 729 00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,080 Speaker 1: the way it works. Auburn is number nine. They're up 730 00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,120 Speaker 1: three spots as a two loss team. They were off 731 00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,879 Speaker 1: last week, so obviously a result of movement around them. 732 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,080 Speaker 1: Iowa State still a top ten team, sitting at number eight. 733 00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:33,360 Speaker 1: Number seven is Oklahoma. Now, let's talk about this for 734 00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:37,600 Speaker 1: a second. Oklahoma. They are kind of the inverse of Nebraska. 735 00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:41,279 Speaker 1: Oklahoma has won a bunch of close games. Nebraska has 736 00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 1: lost a bunch of close games. We've got Oklahoma ranked 737 00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,960 Speaker 1: down at seven. Think the AP has them much higher. 738 00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:49,799 Speaker 1: We got them at seven. This is the first time 739 00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:52,040 Speaker 1: that the model has started to punish them a little 740 00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:54,960 Speaker 1: bit more after they rocketed back up to number three. 741 00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:58,080 Speaker 1: And it's because we're starting to look at teams like Sincy, 742 00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:00,440 Speaker 1: which is number six. By the way, this is the 743 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,920 Speaker 1: first time that the model would actually slightly favor Sensy 744 00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:08,120 Speaker 1: on a neutral field against Oklahoma again. I think Oklahoma's 745 00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,600 Speaker 1: best football is ahead of them, and I do think 746 00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:12,960 Speaker 1: there's going to come a time where maybe they move 747 00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:15,200 Speaker 1: back up into the top five, but it's not the 748 00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:19,439 Speaker 1: present team, and we cannot keep in week eight, nine 749 00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:22,840 Speaker 1: and ten just expecting that a switch is about to 750 00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,120 Speaker 1: be flipped. That's the kind of stuff that maybe you 751 00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,600 Speaker 1: said about Clemson after Week one, Oh they'll get their 752 00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:30,200 Speaker 1: act together. Well they never did, but it was reasonable 753 00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:33,200 Speaker 1: to at least think that. So that's why Oklahoma's down 754 00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:38,160 Speaker 1: top five is got's movement. Michigan's at number five. Now, 755 00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:41,360 Speaker 1: I got to tell you, I'd be hard pressed to 756 00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:44,200 Speaker 1: be picking Michigan over Oklahoma on a neutral tomorrow. I'd 757 00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,680 Speaker 1: be hard pressed to do that. But I do understand 758 00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,200 Speaker 1: the model's reasoning, so I'm not going to argue with it, really, 759 00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:53,040 Speaker 1: really strongly. Ole Miss is our biggest differentiator. It has been, 760 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:54,960 Speaker 1: they have been for quite a while. We got Old 761 00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:57,879 Speaker 1: Miss at number four. Hate the dynamic for them this week. 762 00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,200 Speaker 1: I think they're going to lose this week. I got 763 00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:02,440 Speaker 1: news for you. If they go into Auburn and they 764 00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,880 Speaker 1: lose by one possession, they probably won't even drop because 765 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,319 Speaker 1: that's exactly what our model expects them to do, and 766 00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,800 Speaker 1: so the same model that's got them in four expects 767 00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,200 Speaker 1: them to lose by five. So if that were to happen, 768 00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:17,520 Speaker 1: they're grade by default would remain unchanged. Ohio State is three, 769 00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:20,520 Speaker 1: Bama is two, Georgia is one. I will tell you 770 00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:23,400 Speaker 1: the gap that didn't really exist to begin with between 771 00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,480 Speaker 1: Ohio State and Alabama. It's razor thin. It's less than 772 00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:29,399 Speaker 1: a point. There is I think two points now it's 773 00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:32,480 Speaker 1: like right at two points that separate Georgia and Alabama. 774 00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:35,919 Speaker 1: So we have got a really tight one through three. 775 00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,319 Speaker 1: There is a sizeable drop off between three and four, 776 00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,480 Speaker 1: and then it's pretty much jumbled, which is fun. It's 777 00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:46,960 Speaker 1: fun to look at. The question becomes is there going 778 00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,799 Speaker 1: to be a bridge built and how many bridges can 779 00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,279 Speaker 1: be built between these teams that are outside of that 780 00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:55,040 Speaker 1: top three and the top three or are those top 781 00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:57,600 Speaker 1: three just going to pull away? And also should be 782 00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:00,759 Speaker 1: noted that even though there is some separation with one, two, 783 00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:03,120 Speaker 1: three versus the rest of the pact, it's not the 784 00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,240 Speaker 1: kind of separation we've seen in recent years. In other words, 785 00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:10,480 Speaker 1: if I had twenty twenty, Alabama in this year, there 786 00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,600 Speaker 1: would be a gap between twenty twenty Alabama and number 787 00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,280 Speaker 1: one Georgia. There would be a gap between twenty nineteen 788 00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:20,000 Speaker 1: LSU and number one Georgia. So just cause I'm telling 789 00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,359 Speaker 1: you there's a big gap between these top teams and 790 00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,840 Speaker 1: then the second tier, it doesn't make that top tier invincible. 791 00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:27,839 Speaker 1: That's not the year we're in it. You think we've 792 00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:31,080 Speaker 1: gone through all this chaos to just have a completely 793 00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:35,560 Speaker 1: tranquil November, I think you're kidding yourself. So that's all 794 00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:37,839 Speaker 1: I had to say about that. It is right at 795 00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,719 Speaker 1: time for first pitch. Jesse got the over at thirty 796 00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:42,760 Speaker 1: five minutes for the show tonight, I think it barely 797 00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:46,520 Speaker 1: hits of congratulations to producer Jesse, for director Colin, for Jesse, 798 00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:50,200 Speaker 1: our entire crew in Connecticut. I'm Josh bate Go Braids. 799 00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,080 Speaker 1: Thanks for watching. Make sure you're subscribed to the channel. 800 00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,320 Speaker 1: Have a great rest of your EVA. Godless