1 00:00:12,440 --> 00:00:15,720 Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Wednesday 2 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: edition of the Daily Juice Podcast. Myname is Matt Parot. 3 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 1: You guys can follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt. 4 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 1: Each and every morning we're here on Bettingpros dot com. 5 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:24,960 Speaker 1: Always being brought to you by our friends at bet MGM. 6 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: And it's thanks Giving. What a great time to jump 7 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: in with bet MGM the five dollars bet. If you're 8 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 1: involved in a football game, you guys can win one 9 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: hundred dollars. Have a touchdown get scored, just bet money, line, 10 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:38,880 Speaker 1: side total, whatever you want, and a touchdown get scored, 11 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:41,200 Speaker 1: you win five dollars. With that promo code juice one 12 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 1: hundred new users BETMGM betmgm dot com use that promo 13 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 1: code juice one hundred. Okay, So this is a very 14 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: early tape time. So I'm getting on a red eye. 15 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 1: I'm going to be flying back to Boston, and so 16 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 1: I don't know what happened last night for our bets. 17 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: So I apologize, no recap, just going to go right 18 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 1: into the place here today for us, But just a reminder, 19 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 1: no live stream on Thursday, no livestream on Sunday, and 20 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: no discord jet at all on Saturday as well. So 21 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 1: I'm out of town. I'm going to Boston and I'm 22 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 1: going to New Jersey for the SBC Sports Gambling Conference 23 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 1: on Monday and Tuesday, and then I'll be back on Wednesday. 24 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:15,960 Speaker 1: So the POD's gonna drop on different spots. This is 25 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: when it gets a little bit complicated and crazy and 26 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 1: as life comes back. I knew this was going to 27 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:22,839 Speaker 1: be a little more difficult with the daily juice being 28 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 1: daily when I start traveling, and because of COVID it 29 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: was easy, but now we're traveling, so it's going to 30 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: be a little bit more difficult. So have to jump 31 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 1: in here and get involved, all right. So here are 32 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 1: the plays on Thursday. I can't give you the bets 33 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 1: for tomorrow because the lines aren't out, lineups aren't set. 34 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:42,679 Speaker 1: Not betting MBA, not betting NHL, not bett in college football. 35 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: Just going to give you all three of the place. 36 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 1: And I'm gonna preface this by saying that if you 37 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 1: want to wait on a couple of these games, it 38 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: may not be a bad idea, all right, because you 39 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 1: may see some big line movement. You may see some 40 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 1: players be in be out that could change things dramatically, 41 00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 1: so you may want to wait and just keep my 42 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 1: knowledge in the back of your mind as to what 43 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: you're gonna do. But because of the fact that tomorrow 44 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 1: I'm gonna be just wiped out and I'll tape the podcast, 45 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:12,680 Speaker 1: but because I'll probably give you prop bets for Thanksgiving 46 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:16,239 Speaker 1: coming up on the podcast for Wednesday going into Thursday, 47 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 1: and maybe college basketball better two coming up, but I 48 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 1: thought one not to do the NFL betting right now, 49 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 1: all right, so let's start with the first game Bears 50 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 1: and the Lions line is down to three. This line 51 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: was three and a half, it's now three. Will Matt 52 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 1: Naggy be fired after this game? He says, no. There 53 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 1: was chance going on at basketball games and Bulls games, 54 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 1: including a high school game involving Matt Naggy's son, chanting 55 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: Fire Naggy, which is never great or appropriate, to be 56 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 1: quite honest, But that's kind of where we are here 57 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 1: with this story. However, it looks like Jared Goff's going 58 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:51,800 Speaker 1: to try to play. I think that's a really good thing. 59 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 1: We're not gonna see Justin Fields. He's hurt. We're gonna 60 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,399 Speaker 1: wind up seeing Andy Dalton again. Not a bad thing 61 00:02:57,639 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 1: talking about an nine to one football team in the 62 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 1: line who are at home, and historically speaking, the Lions 63 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:05,959 Speaker 1: have not been good against the spread at home. Okay, 64 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,519 Speaker 1: they're catching three points. It was three and a half 65 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 1: now it's three. Three is the key number if it 66 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: goes below three. I like this even more, but don't 67 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 1: bet this at three and a half. I think the 68 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 1: Bears are going to run the football with Montgomery and company. 69 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: And I think the Bears, even with their banged up defense, 70 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 1: I think they're just a better football team. Okay, even 71 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 1: with Matt Nagi being just a horrific head coach and 72 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: everything going south. I don't think this is like go 73 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 1: win one for the Gipper type of thing. I just 74 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:33,280 Speaker 1: think they're professional football players, and when you're a pro 75 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 1: football player, I just think you go out there and 76 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 1: play for pride. And I don't think Andy Dalton's gonna 77 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: go out there and lay a complete egg against that 78 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 1: Lions defense. So I think they win. I think they 79 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 1: cover that three points. I'm gonna lay the three minus 80 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: three here for the Bears. Again, I don't love this play, 81 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: but I think it's the right side to be on 82 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: here because I just think David Montgomery and company can 83 00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: line up and run the football well enough, and frankly 84 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 1: they I have lost last week to the Ravens. I 85 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: mean we were I was on the Bears last week 86 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 1: at plus four and a half at home. This is 87 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: a small number. It's minus three. I don't know if 88 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: the Bears tend to own the Lions in a lot 89 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 1: of ways, and they've won this game on Thanksgiving against 90 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 1: the Lions a couple of times. Sure they're banged up, 91 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:19,919 Speaker 1: Sure Matt Naggy's got a whole lot of questions. But 92 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 1: I just think this team, not again, I don't think 93 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,480 Speaker 1: they're gonna win one for Matt Naggy. I just think 94 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 1: they're a better football team. And I think Detroit stinks. Okay, 95 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: I just think Detroit's absolutely awful. I just think home 96 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 1: the home cooking for Detroit hasn't existed. In fact, it's 97 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 1: been more complicated in a lot of ways for the Lions. 98 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 1: They've been pretty bad against the number here at home. Yeah, 99 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,839 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna go ahead and lay the points. Bears 100 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: minus three for their road game one unit Bears minus 101 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 1: three taking on the Detroit Lions game one on Thanksgiving. Okay, 102 00:04:56,360 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 1: Game two Raiders and the Cowboys. Man, this is a 103 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 1: tough game to play, Okay. So I was taking a 104 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: look at the totals. Dallas's last four games have all 105 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 1: gone under. Okay, last four games have all gone under. 106 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 1: I lean here to take the points with the Raiders 107 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:21,839 Speaker 1: at plus seven and a half. Okay, that's my lean. However, 108 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: the total is fifty one. The Raiders are offensively broken. 109 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 1: I think the fact that they don't have Henry Ruggs. 110 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 1: There's not a lot right now of I think creative 111 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 1: ways of getting the football to Darren Waller. Their offensive 112 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: line is okay. The one fear I've got is what 113 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 1: happened with Kansas City. Okay, Casey, the number was fifty 114 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 1: three and a half. They were at home, and they 115 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: gave up forty one points and the game went over 116 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:54,720 Speaker 1: by one and a half points. This total is fifty one. Okay. Cincinnati, 117 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 1: the last game total was fifty one. It went under 118 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 1: by six points. They gave up thirty two points. In 119 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,720 Speaker 1: the last three weeks. The Raiders less three games that 120 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 1: a buye. But the last three games for the Raiders 121 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: they've scored sixteen, fourteen, and thirteen points without rugs. It's 122 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 1: not that rugs off the field changes a ton. It 123 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 1: changes the way the defenses are playing them. They're taking 124 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 1: away the run and they're saying, go ahead and try 125 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:20,600 Speaker 1: to throw the ball over the top. We don't think 126 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 1: you can do that. I don't think the Raiders are 127 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:24,480 Speaker 1: going to be able to do this on the road 128 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 1: at Dallas and Dallas for you know, all their problems 129 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: this year. They've given up nineteen three thirty in sixteen 130 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: over the last four weeks. The Denver game was a 131 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 1: little bit of an anomoly that was coming off of 132 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 1: a bye. Everyone was kind of like, wait what, I'm 133 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:45,799 Speaker 1: very concerned about this Raiders offense being able to score. 134 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 1: And I think they could stay in the game and 135 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,279 Speaker 1: have it like a low scoring, you know, slobbird knocker 136 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 1: type of a football game, and maybe they keep it 137 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: under eight points. I mean, hit eight in Vegas today 138 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 1: and then went right back down to seven and a half, 139 00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 1: So like eight seems to be the threshold. But the 140 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:02,360 Speaker 1: Cowboys are eight and two against the spread. The Cowboys 141 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: at home are four and one against the spread. I 142 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 1: definitely think they're the side. Funky things do happen in 143 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: in around Thanksgiving. So here's what I'm going to do 144 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: with this game. I'm gonna same game, tease this game. 145 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 1: Okay at minus one twenty, Okay, I'm going to and 146 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 1: this has burned me so many times, but I'm gonna 147 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: do it one more time here. And maybe it's just 148 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: a stupid way of playing this game, but I'm gonna 149 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 1: take the Cowboys from seven and a half and I'm 150 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: gonna pull it down to one and a half. And 151 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the total from fifty one and I'm 152 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 1: gonna tease it up to fifty seven, and I'm gonna 153 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 1: take the under. Okay at minus one twenty Cowboys minus 154 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: one and a half, and take the total and pull 155 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: it and push it up to fifty seven and take 156 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 1: the under. I think the Cowboys win the game by seven. 157 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 1: I think that's gonna be the flex point. But I 158 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 1: also to see the Cowboys just going there and completely 159 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 1: blowing their doors off. And I don't think the Raiders 160 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 1: score all that much. I mean, I don't hate laying 161 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 1: the seven and a half. I really don't. I think 162 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 1: you could you could get away with laying seven and 163 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 1: a half. But the Raiders are playing for their lives. 164 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 1: They've lost three games in a row. They've looked really 165 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 1: bad doing it. They've lost by nineteen twenty seven and seven. 166 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 1: They haven't won the game in the month of November. 167 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: You know, everything with Gruden and Ruggs, it all seems 168 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 1: to be kind of piling in here. But the Cowboys 169 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: are one and two against the number over their last 170 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 1: three games, So I mean two and two on the 171 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 1: road for the Raiders. The actually kind of a better 172 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 1: team against the spread on the road this year than 173 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 1: they have been at home. But I mean here there 174 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,679 Speaker 1: catching seven and a half or eight points. I got 175 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 1: seven and a half. I'm gonna pull it down to 176 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 1: one and a half and I'm gonna take the total 177 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 1: up to fifty seven and take the under. So far 178 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: this year, we talk about totals for the Raiders and 179 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 1: have they had teams, you know, go over this and 180 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 1: go their Their highest point total was fifty three and 181 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:53,839 Speaker 1: a half and that went over by a point and 182 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 1: a half. Okay, so they haven't had a game yet 183 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 1: that's gone up around. I guess there was a forty 184 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,839 Speaker 1: five total in their third game of the year. It 185 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 1: was thirty one to twenty eight, where fifty nine points 186 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 1: got scored, but That's about it in terms of point total. 187 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 1: I guesst Denver one too. They had another one against 188 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: Denver that was kind of that was there. It was 189 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 1: fifty eight, So I've had two games at fifty nine 190 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 1: and fifty eight to go over fifty seven. But that's it. 191 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: I don't think the Cowboys are going to score forty 192 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: five points on them. Could they maybe? But there's a 193 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,079 Speaker 1: lot of injuries for Dallas. Okay, Zeke is banged up, 194 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:28,080 Speaker 1: Ceedee Lambs out of this game. So I see the 195 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 1: Cowboys winning the game, win it by seven, but I'm 196 00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 1: going fifty seven. Tease up to fifty seven. Take this 197 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: number from seven and a half and tease it down 198 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,719 Speaker 1: to six. Same game teaser Dallas minus one and a 199 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 1: half and the under fifty seven for the Cowboys and 200 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,680 Speaker 1: the Raiders for one unit and our last play for 201 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:53,079 Speaker 1: Thanksgiving here, man, this one's tough. Okay, New Orleans hosting 202 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills. You could make a pretty strong case 203 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 1: the Bills are broken. I mean, you can make a 204 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,719 Speaker 1: pretty decent case that Buffalo is an absolute mess and 205 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 1: there's no way Buffalo should be favored by six points 206 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 1: here in this game, New Orleans is five and five 207 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 1: against the number New Orleans at home, one and two 208 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 1: against the spread Buffalo on the road, three and two 209 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 1: at home. They're two to two and one last ten 210 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 1: for the Bills five to four in one. They have 211 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:22,959 Speaker 1: lost three of their last five football games. Lost to 212 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: Tennessee as six point favorites, lost to Jacksonville as fourteen 213 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,880 Speaker 1: and a half favorites, lost to Thedanapolis Colts to by 214 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 1: twenty six points last week as seven point favorites. The 215 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,440 Speaker 1: problem with this game, in my opinion, in why this 216 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 1: number went from three and a half to six relatively quickly. 217 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 1: And I'm getting in on a bad number. I understand that. 218 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 1: But New Orleans Man, you know, I just I'm very 219 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 1: concerned about Alvin Kamara. I'm very concerned about Trevor Simmeon. 220 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: I'm very concerned about this offense. It just hasn't been 221 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 1: working for this team. They just haven't been scoring enough 222 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: points at all. They scored a ton of garb time 223 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: points last week against Philadelphia with twenty nine points. Their 224 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: defense kept them in the game against Tennessee some bad calls. 225 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 1: They scored twenty one points in that game. They scored 226 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:12,719 Speaker 1: twenty five points against Atlanta. But defensively, this team is 227 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:16,080 Speaker 1: supposed to be good defensively, and right now they're giving 228 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: up forty twenty three, twenty seven. These are not the 229 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,199 Speaker 1: numbers of a defense that you go, okay, there are 230 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,680 Speaker 1: really good defense, and they're hard to score against. They've 231 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 1: got some really good players, Latimore and company very good, 232 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 1: you know, Cam Jordan, they get some good overall players. 233 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: But they're giving up twenty one point eight points per game. 234 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 1: That's tenth best in the NFL. That's okay. They're hard 235 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 1: to run on. Three point four yards per rush is 236 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 1: number one in the NFL. But Buffalo doesn't run the football, 237 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 1: as we know, Buffalo throws the football with Josh Allen 238 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 1: a ton. Buffalo's offense this year seven yards per pass play, 239 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:51,319 Speaker 1: down from where it's been two hundred and seventy nine 240 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: yards two and seventy three yards passing this season is 241 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:57,319 Speaker 1: seventh best in the NFL. You know, when they run 242 00:11:57,360 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 1: the ball, they have a four point seven yards per clip. 243 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 1: But they don't really like to run football all that much. 244 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 1: So you have a defense in New Orleans that's great 245 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 1: against the run and not good against the pass. Seven 246 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:09,079 Speaker 1: point two yards per pass play that's twenty fifth in 247 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 1: the NFL. I just think Buffalo has a bounce back 248 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 1: spot here. I think this is a game where New 249 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 1: Orleans really is gonna have a tough time scoring and 250 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 1: keeping up. And again, I don't like this offense right now, 251 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 1: with Camara or without Camara. I don't like this offense. 252 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 1: Everyone's calling this a look ahead spot that Buffalo's got 253 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:31,320 Speaker 1: the Monday night game against New England's coming up. I 254 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 1: don't think they're looking ahead here. I think that they're 255 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: looking at the fact that they're in second place behind 256 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 1: the Patriots, and they are desperate and desperate and desperate 257 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 1: in need of a win. I'm gonna take the team 258 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 1: that's more desperate. New Orleans knows how banged up they are. 259 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 1: I mean, they're not happy where they are, obviously, but 260 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:49,439 Speaker 1: there's not that same like Super Bowl or bust mentality 261 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 1: that Buffalo had going into this season. Six and four 262 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 1: Buffalo is somewhat striking and shocking given where they are. 263 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: Five and five for New Orleans is not all that 264 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:01,079 Speaker 1: surprising given what they're projected win total was this year. 265 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:03,679 Speaker 1: So they've lost three games in a row. I think 266 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 1: it goes to four games in a row just because 267 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 1: of all their injuries on offense and how banged up 268 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 1: they are. If Kamara plays, maybe it's a little bit easier. 269 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:13,319 Speaker 1: But I don't think Kamara makes a monster difference. He 270 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 1: makes a difference, but not a monster difference. I'm gonna 271 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:19,199 Speaker 1: lay the six points. I know it's a bad number here. 272 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 1: I totally understand this, but this might close at seven 273 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: or higher. I took the six Buffalo minus six for 274 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:29,679 Speaker 1: one unit on Thanksgiving Day. Okay, so the plays for 275 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:33,679 Speaker 1: today or for Thanksgiving rather on Thursday on a Wednesday, 276 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 1: giving you these plays a bit early. You may want 277 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:39,839 Speaker 1: to wait if you want. But Bears minus three one unit, 278 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 1: same game teaser, Cowboys down to minus one and a 279 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:47,199 Speaker 1: half in the total up to fifty seven, taking the under, 280 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 1: and then I'm laying the six with the Bills minus 281 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 1: six up against the New Orleans Saints coming up here 282 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 1: for Thursday night football on the primetime game four Bills 283 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 1: and the Saints. I will talk to you tomorrow for 284 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 1: another podcast. This time will be coming to you from Massachusetts. 285 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:08,400 Speaker 1: I don't know what may happen. Okay, they're hopefully is 286 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: gonna be video, hopefully gonna be audio. There'll be audio, 287 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,400 Speaker 1: but whenever I go home, you never know about everything. 288 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: I'm staying in a hotel, you never know what's going 289 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 1: to happen. So I want to give those three plays 290 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 1: ahead of time right now to make sure that they're out. 291 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 1: There are three bets for Thanksgiving coming up here for 292 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:26,760 Speaker 1: Turkey Day, player props and other fun stuff coming on 293 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 1: the podcast tomorrow, maybe a little basketball as well for 294 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: you guys. So nothing going on Wednesday, travel day for me, 295 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 1: kind of relaxing, reset the battery type of day for me, 296 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 1: and we'll get rocking en rolling. I gotta go to 297 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 1: New Hampshire to load up on my on my accounts 298 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: up there, and then I got to go to New 299 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: Jersey and get on my bet MGM account and all 300 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 1: the fun stuff that will happen with my East Coast trip. 301 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: So more on football coming up tomorrow. Good luck in 302 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:52,680 Speaker 1: those three plays. Mina's map, Parolt's follow me on Twitter 303 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt each in the morning. It's the 304 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 1: Daily Juice podcast. Even during Thanksgiving Day week here I 305 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: was being brought to you by bet MGM.