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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day. If Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot com, the radio plus mobile app and on your radio,

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Speaker 1: this is a Bloomberg Business flash and I'm Karen Moscow.

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Speaker 1: Vivendi paid Liberty Media seven hundred seventy five million dollars

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Speaker 1: to settle claims related to a dispute that arose from

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Speaker 1: a two thousand one transaction. As a result of this settlement,

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Speaker 1: all appeals have been dismissed. Nissan Motor will acquire up

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Speaker 1: to three and a half billion dollars of stock to

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Speaker 1: enhance return to shareholders, and Ali Baba Group Holding is

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Speaker 1: in discussion with banks for a loan of as much

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Speaker 1: as four billion dollars to fund expansion plans, which could

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Speaker 1: include acquisitions. According to The Wall Street Journal, which cited

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Speaker 1: people familiar with the matter, Futures higher this morning. SNP

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Speaker 1: EVENI futures up eight points, Dow EVENI futures up sixty

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Speaker 1: five nasdactumuni futures up twenty two. The decks in Germany's

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Speaker 1: up one point two percent, ten Your treasury down five

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Speaker 1: thirty seconds, the yield one point seven three percent. Nimex

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Speaker 1: screwed oil up nine ten percent or twenty eight cents

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Speaker 1: to thirty three thirty five. Apparrel comes gold is little

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Speaker 1: change down eighty cents twelve announced the euro a dollar

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Speaker 1: ten twenty four, the N one twelve point eight six

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Speaker 1: And as a Bloomberg Business flash, Tom and Mike Karen Moscow,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. We're talking with Sasan Garamani. He's

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Speaker 1: the founder and CEO of s g H Macro Advisors.

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Speaker 1: We we're talking about what to expect out of the

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Speaker 1: G twenty meeting. The G twenty obviously they're meeting in

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Speaker 1: Shanghai today. Have a lot to talk about things going

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Speaker 1: on around the world. I want to touch on some

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Speaker 1: of those. We were just talking a little bit with

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Speaker 1: Bob Hormatt's about the elections underway in Iran. Are they

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Speaker 1: going to be anything that changes the geo political calculation

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Speaker 1: at all? Or is this just sort of an interim

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Speaker 1: step out there. Um, it changes things on the margins,

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Speaker 1: I think. Um. You know, the elections are are not

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Speaker 1: to be confused with the presidential elections which are sort

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Speaker 1: of a much bigger deal, the ones that you know

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Speaker 1: started the whole In revolution and the failed Green Revolution,

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Speaker 1: and and and put in hot Timmy and and Amdinisha

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Speaker 1: during his time and and then eventually now Rohaney, these

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Speaker 1: are elections for for parliament and for the Assembly of

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Speaker 1: Experts um Parliament. The Iranian matchless is you know, it's

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Speaker 1: it's I wouldn't call it a rubber stamp, it's it's uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, it has some power, um, but it doesn't

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Speaker 1: really have that much power, so you know it. And

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Speaker 1: then one key thing I think that that is that

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Speaker 1: I'd like to point out about these elections is that

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Speaker 1: people a lot of times with you Iran uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: for the prison of hardliners versus moderates and which is

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Speaker 1: which is sort of right correct. But the relationship that

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Speaker 1: that the current president has Rohaney with the with the

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Speaker 1: comman a with the hardliners is not as as um

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Speaker 1: as uh polarized as it was during Contemnis time. You know,

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Speaker 1: both the comedy has moved to the middle and roal

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Speaker 1: Honey is not quite as liberal. Help me with this,

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Speaker 1: because we have such respects for your heritage and for

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Speaker 1: your knowledge of Persia. The basic idea of a thirty

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Speaker 1: two year old engineer in Tehran and they're not building

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Speaker 1: nuclear arms or whatever they're doing. Whatever they're doing, do

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Speaker 1: they have linkage with their government or are the people

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Speaker 1: a thirty two year old engineer in Tehran male female,

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Speaker 1: I don't care. Do they have a linkage with the

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Speaker 1: elites in the government. Uh, Well, you know, there is

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Speaker 1: a whole sort of class, an iran of um of

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Speaker 1: people who who who do a lot of business in

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Speaker 1: middle class that's very involved with some of the foundations,

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Speaker 1: for example, and and with the Revolutionary Guards and so on.

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Speaker 1: So there there are you know, some industries in some sectors.

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Speaker 1: If you're a big in big business, you sort of

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Speaker 1: have to deal with the government. But to your question,

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Speaker 1: not so much, you know, And I think this is

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Speaker 1: you know, it's run is somewhere mixed between an autocratic

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Speaker 1: and a totalitarian society. It's it's more towards autocratic where

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Speaker 1: you know, for most of the people. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I think that there's a relatively um except for on

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Speaker 1: social issues, you know, with the with the chudd or

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Speaker 1: and hit job and things like that. Um, it's a

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Speaker 1: relatively laiser fair um type of of of environment for

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Speaker 1: for for the middle class. If you're in the in

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Speaker 1: the the lower class, it's different. Um, there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of subsidies and so on and in the very top

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Speaker 1: it's different as well, you know, um, but not so

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Speaker 1: much for the middle class. They're going to be investment opportunities,

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Speaker 1: serious investment opportunities in Iran in the near future, yes

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Speaker 1: there are. And and then you know, you have European

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Speaker 1: companies are are already lined up. People traditionally think of

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Speaker 1: it as you know, an oil and gas industry, which

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Speaker 1: is obviously the big industry in Iran. One thing important

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Speaker 1: that has changed in Iran um now as opposed to

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Speaker 1: the past, is that Rohaney is legitimately trying to change

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Speaker 1: some of the regulations surrounding foreign invest and and and

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Speaker 1: somewhat successfully. They used to have very onerous restrictions as

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Speaker 1: far as you know, who could who could invest, So

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Speaker 1: that Iranians are doing their bit to try to attract

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Speaker 1: for an investment. At this point, um, they sort of

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Speaker 1: scare people off. There's a couple of people still in

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Speaker 1: jail and so on, which is unfortunate, and you know,

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Speaker 1: it's kind of a damper hunt on on on. Some

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Speaker 1: of the more positive sentiment the issue right now is

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Speaker 1: is mostly with you with the US UM and the

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Speaker 1: fact that there are still concerns with dollar transactions, and

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Speaker 1: some of those sanctions have not been lifted, and so

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Speaker 1: for US business it's still hard. But I think that

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Speaker 1: that should change over time. So you're trying to you know,

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Speaker 1: circumvent that through barters, through dealing with the Euro you know,

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Speaker 1: and and and things like that. It's at the disadvantage

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Speaker 1: of US companies who are national audience Coast to coast, Washington, Boston,

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Speaker 1: San Francisco, New York, everybody on serious next time Chadel one,

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Speaker 1: nineteen as well, Can American companies get any kind of

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Speaker 1: fair shake doing business within New Iran? Or do they

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Speaker 1: have to set up a shadow company in Germany? Name

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Speaker 1: it something else? Do you get any business done? Yeah? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think that the officially there's not a need to

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Speaker 1: set up shadow companies and so on anymore. I think

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Speaker 1: the the there there has been, you know, some opening

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Speaker 1: in and not not a complete opening. There's they called

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Speaker 1: the O fact restrictions are you know, so in place

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Speaker 1: to a large extent. So the bigger issues is a

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Speaker 1: pragmatical one and a practical one. And the fact is

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Speaker 1: that I think a lot of the banks and the

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Speaker 1: banking system is concerned because you know, they're concerned that

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Speaker 1: the rules might change on them. This is this is

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Speaker 1: the biggest problem and that you know, you you have

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Speaker 1: had you know, some banks that transactions with Iran and

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Speaker 1: then you know they they had UM they were subsequently prosecuted.

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Speaker 1: And then you have presidential candidates are saying we're gonna,

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Speaker 1: you know, rip up the deal. You know that the

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Speaker 1: day one the nuclear deal with Iran, day one that

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Speaker 1: we start. So I think that's what's been you know,

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Speaker 1: that fear that things could especially the banking side, UM

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Speaker 1: could reverse as sort of the the big impediment right now.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully we'll have more clarity on that after the elections

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Speaker 1: and you know, well we'll see how that goes. Let

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Speaker 1: me shift gears here and ask you about Brexit. It's uh,

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Speaker 1: as one writer player this morning, possibly going to be

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Speaker 1: as significant as all the other issues like China and

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Speaker 1: oil before the end of the year. UM, do you agree.

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Speaker 1: I Maybe not as significant. Yes, it is a significant issue.

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Speaker 1: Let let me put it this way. And one of

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Speaker 1: the issues is that you know, the polls currently show

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Speaker 1: the in vote or the stay vote, you know they're

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Speaker 1: called both things. UM, stay with the EU ISN has

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Speaker 1: has a lead. I think the betting right now on

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Speaker 1: on on the street is kind of sevent you know,

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Speaker 1: the the the UK betting shops which people follow this,

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Speaker 1: you know where the where the retail money so to speak,

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Speaker 1: is going United Kingdom shot and they do better than

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Speaker 1: some of the traders. So people pay close attention to that. Um.

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Speaker 1: The problem is that um is that and we think

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Speaker 1: actually that Cameron got some relatively reasonable concessions out of

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Speaker 1: the EU, but they're hard to explain, they're sort of technical,

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Speaker 1: and this is such an emotional issue and and he's

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Speaker 1: been blasted you know, um by do I will typically

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Speaker 1: be Tory friendly. Press has come back and and and

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Speaker 1: criticized him on the deal. And so yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: this thing might might narrow, you know, before it widens,

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Speaker 1: and it could end up being like this if you

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Speaker 1: remember the Scottish referenum that kind of got really close.

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Speaker 1: And then you know, ultimately we think, yeah, probably they're

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Speaker 1: they're going to stay in the odds are that that

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Speaker 1: that they don't you know, leave leave the EU, But

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Speaker 1: it'll it's going to tighten before you know, I think

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Speaker 1: there's more comfort. What's the biggest concern your clients have

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Speaker 1: right now? Uh, the the three concerns if I can

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Speaker 1: say that are UM are really um China fad and

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Speaker 1: oil and energy policy if you want to. The biggest concern,

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Speaker 1: one single overarching concern, I think is that what we're

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Speaker 1: talking about earlier is the narrative that UM, you know,

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Speaker 1: that that monetary and fiscal policy is having less and

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Speaker 1: less impact. Uh. So you're getting diminishing returns from from

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Speaker 1: policymaker action, and so I think there's concern about that, frankly,

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Speaker 1: uh and not just diminishing return but sometimes maybe even

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Speaker 1: you know, a negative reaction. So you're getting a lot

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Speaker 1: of stories about, you know, with the back of Japan

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Speaker 1: wrong to cut you know, rights their deposit rates in

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Speaker 1: the negative territory? Is that having you know, what's the

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Speaker 1: cost benefit of that at this point, are you you know,

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Speaker 1: hurting the banks more, you know, taxing the banks and

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Speaker 1: so on and creating a negative disinflationary sentiment and cycle

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Speaker 1: rather than actually sort of stimulating the economy. So I

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Speaker 1: think if there's one big overarching concern, it's it's it's

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Speaker 1: really that it's some sort of glow that the power

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Speaker 1: of the powers to be so to speak, and China

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Speaker 1: actually manage you know, a soft landing. These are things

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Speaker 1: that people are are concerned about them. So Sam, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much so Sun Garamanti St Macro Advisors. A

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Speaker 1: little bit of G twenty field there as well. Mike,

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Speaker 1: I've never seen this. I see it now. Our good,

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Speaker 1: our good colleague and financial and economic crying, greg Ip

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Speaker 1: greg Get, a wonderful journalist, was out on Twitter. Do

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Speaker 1: you know who retweeted him? I think one n our

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Speaker 1: culture Lakoda. He's a private citizen. He's a private citizen.

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Speaker 1: The former president of the Minneapolis Fed. Was it fair

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Speaker 1: to say, Mike he was a dot descended? He was

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Speaker 1: like the outlier lower dot conturer out on Twitter. It's

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Speaker 1: a nerd fest. That's very cool. Good to see. I

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Speaker 1: believe I'll have to follow the former president of the

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Speaker 1: Minneapolis Fed. We will follow with another hour of your

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's surveillance