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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast podcast. All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go spreading the corn.

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Speaker 2: Ten seconds remaining, we just go show me up to

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Speaker 2: the basket.

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Speaker 1: Under the basket, it's.

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Speaker 3: The troup for the wind. God make go Amracle, I'm.

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Speaker 2: Up the water hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by BETMGM.

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Speaker 4: I am your host, Kai McEwan, joined by the rest

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Speaker 4: of the Three man Weave crew, Jim Root and Matt Cox.

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Speaker 4: Every Wednesday morning, we'll be dropping a new BBOC episode

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Speaker 4: talking all things betting in the world of college hoops.

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Speaker 4: Today's episode, it's the usual format, folks. We got the

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Speaker 4: Live Dog of the Week, the Power Game of the Week,

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Speaker 4: the mid major game of the week, the Blowout City section,

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Speaker 4: and of course the trash Man pick of the Week,

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Speaker 4: the ugliest game on the slate for Wednesday, Thursday, sometimes Friday,

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Speaker 4: and then we'll top it off with our Spotlight section.

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Speaker 4: Today we're going to be looking at the worst and

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Speaker 4: best ATS teams in the country and if you should

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Speaker 4: still be betting them or fading them, if the trends

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Speaker 4: will continue. We will discuss. But first, as we always do,

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Speaker 4: we will get into our first section, our favorite section,

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Speaker 4: the live dog of the week. Last week, pretty good boys,

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Speaker 4: all three of us took Rhode Island to take down

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Speaker 4: Saint Joe's and they did. They won out right, those

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Speaker 4: scrappy rams in Rhode Island. Hooray, hurrah. Milwaukee did not

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Speaker 4: beat Oakland, but they did cover, and Jim was quite

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Speaker 4: confident that they would. So congratulations to Jim. Yay, congratulations.

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Speaker 4: Tulsa almost beat Memphis, they did cover. Jacksonville no cover

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Speaker 4: against foorda Gulf Coast. And then our consideration section, Xavier

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Speaker 4: almost beat Villanova, they almost beat them. They did get

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Speaker 4: the cover. No cover for Chattanoo against Sanford and Arizona

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Speaker 4: State they beat Utah out right. Wow, they keep on rolling.

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Speaker 4: They might be in this section today.

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Speaker 2: Fellas Bobby Fly.

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Speaker 4: Bobby f and Hurley. Indeed, well, I got a little

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Speaker 4: pack for you guys to start us off, and of

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Speaker 4: course add your own.

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Speaker 2: Where's mine? Oh, where's mine?

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Speaker 4: But Wednesday, I'm looking at some PAC twelve, I'm looking

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Speaker 4: at Cal plus eight per Kin Pom hosting Colorado. Did

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Speaker 4: Cal finally turn the corner against Ucla with that win?

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Speaker 4: This is of course Colorado's third straight road game. Maybe

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Speaker 4: that's consideration. And then the A ten going back to

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Speaker 4: the well fading Saint Joe's slew is hosting the Hawks,

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Speaker 4: this time plus seven in their home home place, Chafits Arena.

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Speaker 4: Tough team, they bored, but are they just too bad

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Speaker 4: to back? And then on Thursday, little three pack for you,

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Speaker 4: Michigan State is going to Illinois Terarren Shannon, we all

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Speaker 4: know that's too Will that matter against sparty? Arizona State

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Speaker 4: once again at Washington who says no? Who says no?

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Speaker 4: To five? And Oh Sun Devils? And then Long Beach State.

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Speaker 4: That's a bit of a Kai special. We can talk

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Speaker 4: about that one. I just don't believe, you see, San

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Speaker 4: Diego is as good as they've been playing, but I

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Speaker 4: could be very wrong. I'm gonna start off with Matt,

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Speaker 4: do you like anything from Wednesday or Thursday?

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Speaker 3: I like one. I like Cal the Bears.

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Speaker 2: You got a big one at UCLA, although as we

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Speaker 2: learned by the hour, that might be more about Ucla

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Speaker 2: and that calamity of a situation than it is about

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Speaker 2: Cayle turning your corner. Although I do stubbornly believe that

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Speaker 2: Cal is going to be good. We're seeing signs roster

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Speaker 2: is starting to take shape. I know we've kind of

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Speaker 2: tongue in cheek joked about Devin ask You as a

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Speaker 2: uing theory guy. When he's in, I don't want to

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Speaker 2: bet caw when he's out.

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Speaker 3: I think they're better.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm putting that in my handicap here,

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Speaker 2: but I think it's almost the opposite this, Matt.

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Speaker 1: It's almost wild. And I think the alternative to Devin

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Speaker 1: ask You is is such a useless corpse that they

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Speaker 1: need him.

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Speaker 3: It's actually air. I mean, they really don't have much

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Speaker 3: depth at all.

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Speaker 2: But again, that's why you want to get them at

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Speaker 2: home against Colorado who's been much much, much better on

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Speaker 2: their home floor, and he just lost two games away

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Speaker 2: from Boulder. This would be their third and file leg

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Speaker 2: of the road trip. I can see them here laying

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Speaker 2: one more egg. How catches them. They go back home,

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Speaker 2: they resume their home core dominance, but now before they

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Speaker 2: lose their third straight PAC twelve. Nothing else from me, though, Kay,

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Speaker 2: just one more Jim.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you, Matt. I'm riding with cal. I

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Speaker 1: think they're starting to trend up a little. I mean UCLA.

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Speaker 1: Beating them and driving mccronin to insanity and skipping his

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Speaker 1: press conference is hopefully an indicator of the door or

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Speaker 1: the corner being turned for this cow team. Alreay, we

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Speaker 1: liked most of the cores, we liked the coach, so

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Speaker 1: hopefully it's time for them and Kai, I'm going with Slu.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna do it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the home dog taken on Saint Joe's. Very similar

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Speaker 1: spot to Rhode Island last week. Team that has not

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Speaker 1: been that strong in non conference, and of course Saint

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Speaker 1: Joe's has been better, and maybe you get a more

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Speaker 1: engaged billy laying team here, but there's just such high

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Speaker 1: variance you kind of pointed out in your notes, Kai,

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Speaker 1: Saint Joe's takes a ton of threes, they allow a

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Speaker 1: ton of threes. Slu can shoot a little bit, Hargrove

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Speaker 1: and Jimmerson if those guys get going. I don't think

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Speaker 1: we're going to see Sincere Parker return quite yet coming

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Speaker 1: off that broken foot back in November, but potentially he

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Speaker 1: could contribute. That's just a small bonus either way. I

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Speaker 1: think is a very feisty home dog against the Saint

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Speaker 1: Joe's team that is high variants. I like it. You

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Speaker 1: could lose by twenty because of Saint Joe's being hot,

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Speaker 1: or you get the outright win. So I'm willing to

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Speaker 1: embrace the variants there, no matter what it leads to.

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Speaker 4: Agreed. I also like Slugh. I'm going Sleugh as well.

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Speaker 4: I'm going quite a few year. I'm going Slough. I'm

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Speaker 4: going cal And then did I tempt you guys on Thursday?

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Speaker 4: Or are you staying away from the Thursday trio here?

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Speaker 5: I'm in on Michigan State. Kai, I'm with you, Sparty.

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Speaker 1: I just especially looking at I mean, Pnbom's got the

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Speaker 1: line seven. There's no way to line is seven comes

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Speaker 1: out with no Shannon. But even then, I still think

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Speaker 1: it's going to be a little too high if it's

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Speaker 1: like five. Michigan State has lost three in a row

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Speaker 1: against Illinois, so maybe.

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Speaker 5: Tread a little carefully.

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Speaker 1: But I like getting Michigan State off that embarrassing road

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Speaker 1: performance at Northwestern. I think Izzo absolutely has their attention.

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Speaker 1: He had that wild press conference rant about analytics and

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Speaker 1: he hates them and you can't blame the players, and

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Speaker 1: you know, I think his message generally was he just

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Speaker 1: wasn't happy with the aggression and physicality of his team,

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Speaker 1: and I believe we'll see that corrected at Illinois, who

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Speaker 1: has been playing very well without Shannon Matthew. But I'm

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Speaker 1: still willing to ride the Spartans there on the road.

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Speaker 2: I lean with all three of your Thursday choices Kai

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Speaker 2: Long Beach as a five point dog, that you see

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Speaker 2: San Diego as just an absolute mind boggling world that

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Speaker 2: we are living in. That's probably what I should technically take.

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Speaker 2: But I my Tridents are just kind of awesome, So

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Speaker 2: I'm not.

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Speaker 3: Going to fade.

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Speaker 1: I surrender. I'm on my knees begging for my life

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Speaker 1: from you see San Diego.

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Speaker 4: They're just incredible. They've been great. They have the number

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Speaker 4: one offense in the Big West right now. You see

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Speaker 4: San Diego. I just I'm staying stubborn. Long Beach State.

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Speaker 4: Many people's or some people's favored to win the Big

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Speaker 4: West at the beginning of the season. I think they're

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Speaker 4: still talented and can definitely went out right Arizona State.

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Speaker 4: I think we're passing on them. That the dream dies

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Speaker 4: with Washington most likely, Kay, if.

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Speaker 1: You took the one hundred to one conference title future

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Speaker 1: we mentioned last week, you're sitting at four and oh

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Speaker 1: with Arizona State. I still don't think it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a profitable endeavor, but hey, maybe the magic will

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Speaker 1: keep going.

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Speaker 4: Indeed, any ads here, I see two on the list,

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Speaker 4: what do we got?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm adding two from Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Staying in the Big West, kind of the opposite of

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Speaker 1: UC San Diego Long Beach. I'm going to ride with

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Speaker 1: the crazy hot cal State.

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Speaker 5: Northridge.

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Speaker 1: Just can't believe how good they are under new coach

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Speaker 1: Andy Newman. There's been the whole football excitement. I know

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Speaker 1: Washington lost to the National title Game, but Kalin Debor,

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Speaker 1: being like the high performing lower level coach, went like

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Speaker 1: sixty seven to three, sixty seven to three in the

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Speaker 1: NAI That's what Seasun got here. They plucked a tremendous

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Speaker 1: Division two coach and he's immediately turned around that program.

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Speaker 1: They're at UC Davis only getting five, but U C

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Speaker 1: Davis maybe ranting a little too high as well, kind

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Speaker 1: of a two man team. I think Northridge can find

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Speaker 1: a way to defend them. And then I love UNC Greensboro.

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Speaker 1: They're getting seven per Ken Tom on Thursday at Samford

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Speaker 1: they are devalued or deflated in the metrics because they

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Speaker 1: were missing Michael Brown Jones, their best player for a

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Speaker 1: few games, did not look good without him.

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Speaker 5: He is back and they.

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Speaker 1: Have looked really good, whereas Samford is missing Jermaine Marshall

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Speaker 1: with a torn meniscus, arguably best player or at least

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Speaker 1: most important and emotional leader for that team. Front court

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Speaker 1: double digit score. So yeah, I think that's like a

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Speaker 1: coin flip matchup, love getting the value. I'll take Greensboro

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Speaker 1: on Thursday.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. I actually almost included Greensboro in this section. Jim,

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Speaker 4: I agree. Samford has been really good without Marshall. I've

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Speaker 4: kind of surrendered to them as well. But Greensboro, that's

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Speaker 4: a lot of points. I don't think it'll be seven,

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Speaker 4: kind of like Michigan State Illinois, but a lot of points.

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Speaker 4: All right, official takes here, I'm taking four of them.

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Speaker 4: Long Beach Sparti cal Slew Jim, I you I'm.

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Speaker 1: Taking cal If Cody Williams is out for Colorado. Thy

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Speaker 1: get back to full strength, and that's a little concerning.

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Speaker 1: I think Julian Hammond missed last game as well.

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Speaker 5: For Colorado.

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Speaker 1: They've had guys in and out of the lineup, so contingent.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna wait to find out. But I am taking

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Speaker 1: slew in Michigan State from your batch, Kai, and then

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Speaker 1: my two ads CAL State Northridge and UNC Greensboro on Thursday. Matt,

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Speaker 1: a whole lot of acronyms in my picks.

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Speaker 3: I'm just taking Cal.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna be boring. The other one I did want

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Speaker 2: to throw out there is Monmouth goes to UNC Wilmington

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Speaker 2: on Thursday. I just watched Mommuth look like a fireball.

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Speaker 2: I know it was one game, but they look like

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Speaker 2: really legitimately good and UNCU Linctin's lost three in a

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Speaker 2: row and are potentially overrated. I think like Ken Palm

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Speaker 2: has them higher than last year, and the metrics, I'm

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Speaker 2: not sure this team's better than last year's team.

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Speaker 3: So just one more kind of for consideration for you

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Speaker 3: to chew on.

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Speaker 4: I I did consider Mom has well met the fact

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Speaker 4: that UNC Wilmington is owing to two though, and Trask

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Speaker 4: still a tough place to play. First home game in conference,

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Speaker 4: I think their first home game since this, first D

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Speaker 4: one home game all year, I think how about that

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Speaker 4: all year? That's incredible. Uh yeah, Wilmington not a spot

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Speaker 4: I'm looking to fade.

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Speaker 5: I suppose, yeah, I'll go the other way. I think

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Speaker 5: Wilmington wins by twenty.

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Speaker 1: That Monmouth performance against Northeastern was a little aberrational. Their

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Speaker 1: key players and Rice was eleven for twelve. Matt I

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Speaker 1: was fading Monmouth and frustrated. But I think that home

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Speaker 1: conference opener means so much at Trask. I think that's

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Speaker 1: going to be a landslide.

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Speaker 4: Monmouth one of the best ATS teams in the country

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Speaker 4: this season. They've covered seven of their last eight. So yikes,

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Speaker 4: the Hawks are white hot right now. Okay, next section,

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Speaker 4: blowout city fire.

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Speaker 1: Well.

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Speaker 4: Last week, Chicago State lost by nineteen to Oklahoma State.

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Speaker 4: They did cover that kim Pom line of sixteen. I

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Speaker 4: think they covered the closing line. I can't remember what

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Speaker 4: it got up to. It might have honestly closed around nineteen.

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Speaker 4: But if you got an early line, you got that win.

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Speaker 4: Congratulations at Oklahoma State. Gonzaga smashed Pepperdine and we should

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Speaker 4: have listened to ourselves. I think all three of us

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Speaker 4: ended up taking a little bit of pepperdine when it

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Speaker 4: got up to twenty four or whatever it was. And

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Speaker 4: guess what. Gonzaga covered every number didn't they met yep, lose.

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Speaker 1: Louise Well yeah, and then we brought it up on

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Speaker 1: the show and settled, oh no, this is the wrong

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Speaker 1: spot to.

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Speaker 5: Go for the kill with the blot Cidi and we

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Speaker 5: were wrong.

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Speaker 4: We were Indeed, sometimes we're wrong. How about this week, though,

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Speaker 4: let's try to not be wrong. Miami is hosting Louisville

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Speaker 4: minus sixteen for Kimpom. I think everyone knows they can

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Speaker 4: smoke them. Wuga Poplar. His status is probably important for

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Speaker 4: this game. He's missed the last couple for the Canes.

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Speaker 4: Man their offense is good in Louisville's so bad. I

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Speaker 4: tend to think that's a pretty good one. And then

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Speaker 4: Colgate minus fourteen against Lafayette. Colgate, they love destroying Patriot teams.

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Speaker 4: Will there be enough possessions in this game? It will

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Speaker 4: be pretty. It'll be in the sixties most likely mid

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Speaker 4: sixties possession wise. Lafayette's offense though, one of the worst

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Speaker 4: in the country, and they actually are too and zero

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Speaker 4: the Lafayete Leopards somehow in the Patriot Jim, either game

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Speaker 4: stick out to you.

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Speaker 1: I like both of them. Kai, I'm a fan of

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Speaker 1: your selections. Here Miami coming off an ot loss at

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Speaker 1: Wake Forest. I think they get a little angry back

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Speaker 1: at home, and especially if Trey White is still out

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Speaker 1: for Louisville. The UFC transfer arguably their best player. They've

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Speaker 1: been horrendous without him, lost by twenty four Virginia. Look

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Speaker 1: how bad Virginia has been in the last couple of weeks,

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Speaker 1: and Willie He'll still couldn't keep it within twenty there,

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Speaker 1: so that's concerning. And then yeah, Colgate against conference teams,

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Speaker 1: love back in them. The shooting has returned. They weren't

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Speaker 1: scorching in the non conference, but they're over forty percent

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Speaker 1: through two Patriot games. They are playing a little bit faster.

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Speaker 1: Colgate is trying to which I think helps the potential

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Speaker 1: blot spot there. Lafayette sucks it up, Matt, but I'm

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Speaker 1: still I'm still going to ride with the home toothpaste squad.

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Speaker 3: I lean that way.

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Speaker 2: The other one I had written down here is Charleston

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Speaker 2: hosting Elon ups on Thursday. I think Elon's bad and

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Speaker 2: Charleston at home has just been really, really, really good

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Speaker 2: the last few weeks. But the exception of that late

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Speaker 2: stupid backdoor that Coastal gave them much to our sugar,

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Speaker 2: but that nothing really really good at home. So I

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Speaker 2: think Charleston smacks Elon.

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Speaker 4: I like that pick Matthew very very good. Okay, before

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Speaker 4: we get to the Power Games of the week, a

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Speaker 4: word from our sponsor BBOC is presented by bet MGM

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00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:07,560
Speaker 4: Gamming problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, Power

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Speaker 4: Game of the Week, Oh I could feel here we go.

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Speaker 4: We talked to Michigan State, Illinois a bit up the top.

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Speaker 4: We tend to lean that the Shannon thing will be

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Speaker 4: a bigger deal. Michigan State has a bunch of talent,

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Speaker 4: right top five preseason team. I think they can hang

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Speaker 4: with Illinois there. But Wednesday a nice little two for

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Speaker 4: in the SEC Tennessee as at Mississippi State. The Valls

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Speaker 4: minus three per Ken Palm. The Bulldogs zero to one

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Speaker 4: in conference play after a loss to South Carolina. They

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Speaker 4: were three for thirteen from three, just really really bad.

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Speaker 4: Matt should be a very physical game. Both teams can

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Speaker 4: kind of match each other's intensity, and then the question,

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Speaker 4: will total lose Smith, Mississippi State's All American candidate in

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Speaker 4: the preseason, will be more ramped up in this game.

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Speaker 4: He's been really good on a permanent basis. Will they

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Speaker 4: unleash him more against Tennessee?

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Speaker 2: I think they're committed to slowly bringing him back in

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Speaker 2: trying to keep the long term horizon.

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Speaker 3: But you just look at the wait, wait, wait.

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Speaker 5: Wait, can I can I take? Can I take that?

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Speaker 1: I think he plays like thirty minutes last game If

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Speaker 1: he doesn't follow out, it was foul trouble that kept

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Speaker 1: him out. So I think they're ready to Well.

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Speaker 2: I was gonna get to that point too, Jim, because

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Speaker 2: I look at the bracket matrix recent refresh, they are

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Speaker 2: sitting at basically treading toward right where they finished last year.

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Speaker 2: Right in that bubble isious twelve eleven seed that Q

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Speaker 2: four lost to Southern is not going to age well,

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Speaker 2: and with Georgia Tech and South Carolina losses on the

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Speaker 2: resume without any like Marquis Marquee wins, like they need

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Speaker 2: to win this game, and totally Smith is going to

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Speaker 2: be a pretty massive piece against a physical Tennessee front line,

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I think he's gonna have to get it

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Speaker 2: out here. But I do think missoul Be state matters

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Speaker 2: are pretty well with this Tennessee team, who has not

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Speaker 2: played a real tough road game since the since their

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Speaker 2: North Carolina one and ninety two loss in late November.

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Speaker 2: They did be Wisconsin on the road early in the years,

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Speaker 2: so maybe it's actually a better precedent for this game,

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Speaker 2: kind of slower, grinding out type of affair. But I

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Speaker 2: still think the fighting Chris jan zis get this done.

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Speaker 2: Jim just on the spot alone.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I love the spot.

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Speaker 1: The only one team against the one to oh and

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Speaker 1: then matchup wise, like Tennessee is so reliant on Zekai

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Speaker 1: Zieglier and Dalton Connect creating offense, and I can't think

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Speaker 1: of like two better guys to throw at Connect than

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Speaker 1: DJ Jeffries and Cameron Matthews to like monster versatile athletes

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Speaker 1: with strength that I think can really really bother him.

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Speaker 1: And then yeah, Ziggler's really emerged recently and shown his

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Speaker 1: true form recovering from that acl tair. But I think

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Speaker 1: Shaquille Moore andto shn Davis can be quality defenders on him.

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Speaker 1: I think Mississippi State MUCKs this game up. Kai jonas

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Speaker 1: Adu's had a little bit of an injury. He's been

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Speaker 1: playing through it for Tennessee, but I don't love their

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Speaker 1: big man debt behind him. Toby Waka is a little smaller.

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Speaker 1: I think Mississippi State can have success inside, so combined

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Speaker 1: with the crowd, the spot, the decent matchup here I'm

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Speaker 1: gonave about in Misissippi State.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I lean towards the Bulldogs too, boy, I mean

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Speaker 4: we faded at least I did Tennessee with ole miss

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Speaker 4: Tennessee only put up one point three points per possession

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Speaker 4: and grabbed almost half of their misses. So that was

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Speaker 4: a tough one to be vaders of Tennessee. Maybe we'll

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Speaker 4: go back to the well with the what's the Mississippi

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Speaker 4: State Mississippi's nickname the Egg State or Vegan Vegas. I

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Speaker 4: was thinking about the state as a whole.

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Speaker 5: Oh yeah, the rivalries the Egg Bowl.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, so I'm gonna guess Egg State the scrambled

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Speaker 4: Egg State Mississippi. Game two. Power game of the Week

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Speaker 4: Wisconsin at Ohio State, Big Ten matchup. The Badgers minus

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Speaker 4: one per Kin Pum. They're looking to go to four

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Speaker 4: and oh in the Big Ten, sit at the top

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Speaker 4: of the standings. They're humming right now. Number two in

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Speaker 4: offense and defense in Big Ten play. They beat Ohio

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Speaker 4: State at Ohio State last season. Well does that matter?

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Speaker 4: We'll see Jim. You are from Wisconsin, the the the state.

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Speaker 4: What do you think about this game?

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Speaker 1: I like the home team again here. I watched Ohio

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Speaker 1: State against Indiana, and Matthew, your Hoosiers finally stood up

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Speaker 1: on defense. Ohio State was actually up nine early in

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Speaker 1: the second half in that game and then scored like

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Speaker 1: twelve points the next fifteen minutes or something before final minute.

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Speaker 1: Just kind of debauchery. I think Ohio State is much

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Speaker 1: better here at home. They've already lost twice on the

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Speaker 1: road in league play, but back in Columbus, I like them,

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Speaker 1: and I just think Wisconsin's a little overvalued. I don't

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Speaker 1: believe they have the seventh best offense in the country.

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Speaker 1: I think they've been knocking down shots and have gotten

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Speaker 1: real comfortable at the Coal Center. I know they won

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Speaker 1: that Sparti, but that was when Sparti was awful in

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Speaker 1: December in late November, So Matt, I think this is

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Speaker 1: where Wisconsin comes back down to earth a little bit

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Speaker 1: and the Buck guys getting out right win at home.

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Speaker 3: I think I agree.

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Speaker 2: I just liked the Buck guys makeup with Felix Okpara

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Speaker 2: in the middle. They're kind of platooning him with z Key,

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Speaker 2: who's accepted a lesser and more of a reserve or

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Speaker 2: change of pace roll, if you will. And just the

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Speaker 2: fact that you had actually have a real rim protector

390
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Speaker 2: at our par He's not like a bully thick post

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Speaker 2: defender that you might need against crawling wall, but I

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Speaker 2: think he at least provides some resistance at the rim,

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Speaker 2: which is huge. You're gonna have to make Wisconsin make

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Speaker 2: jump shots. I just love this this Ohio State backcourt.

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Speaker 2: I know they're younger and they're gonna be prone to inconsistency,

396
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Speaker 2: but in the right spots, I think they profile is

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Speaker 2: the best most dynamic backcourt in the Big ten. A

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Speaker 2: good back and a good spot I think at a

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Speaker 2: home that makes them a good spot.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,720
Speaker 4: Lean towards Buck guys a bit weirdly. Two six and

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Speaker 4: one against the spread at home this year at the

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Speaker 4: Ohio State Buck guys kind of yikes. Surprising, and I have a.

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Speaker 1: Big home favorite at all, Like they haven't been.

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Speaker 4: Able to smash teams. Yeah, and that's that's part of

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Speaker 4: the reason obviously with all these buy games coming in.

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Speaker 4: I do like their potential defensive front line inside right

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Speaker 4: Wisconsin number one in the in the conference and two

409
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Speaker 4: point field goal percentage. Obviously, they run the swing, you know,

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Speaker 4: they get the ball inside, so we'll see Ohio State

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Speaker 4: can can put up a fight in there. I do

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Speaker 4: lean their way. Nothing really strong in that one for me.

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Speaker 2: I think big ten home courts are fifteen and ten

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Speaker 2: against the numbers so far this year. Yeah, we will

415
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Speaker 2: probably track that all year. After last season, it's just

416
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Speaker 2: like sixty nine whatever that nice cover, right, nice thank you.

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00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:18,360
Speaker 4: Yes, usually a very good home court value. They are

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Speaker 4: number three right now in kim Pom's home win percentage.

419
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 4: Home teams have won seventy six percent of the games,

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Speaker 4: So good girls. Stat there mid major games. The week

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Speaker 4: we got two doozies of mid major games. In my

422
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Speaker 4: opinion of the power game is a little bit weak

423
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Speaker 4: in considering all things college basketball, but the mid majors

424
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Speaker 4: some good ones. Indiana State at Drake on Wednesday, the

425
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Speaker 4: marquee matchup in the Missouri Valley. The Sycamores favored by

426
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Speaker 4: one on the road per Kimpom. Drake just got smashed

427
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Speaker 4: at Belmont, whereas Indiana State handled Northern Iowa. They're going

428
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Speaker 4: to go to five and zero in the conference, take

429
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 4: a commanding lead. Their average margin of victory in Valley

430
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:03,440
Speaker 4: play ten and a half points per game. Yike's ball

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Speaker 4: handling for them will be a key in this game. Matt,

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Speaker 4: who do you like Drake or Indiana State? I like

433
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:10,359
Speaker 4: Indiana State.

434
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:11,240
Speaker 3: I really do.

435
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:15,200
Speaker 2: I know, disrespecting the really good home courts in the

436
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 2: valley is sort of a fool's errand, but.

437
00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 3: I watched Indiana State.

438
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 2: When I was most impressed with was their defense, Like

439
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 2: they actually had a couple of scoring droughts but were

440
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 2: able just to get lockdown stops against Northern Iowa, who

441
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 2: obviously isn't like an offensive, you know, juggernaut by any stretch,

442
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 2: but certainly a team that can presents some problems and

443
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 2: Bowen Borne been playing better, and I thought they just

444
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 2: completely took away U and I's offense. I like that

445
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 2: Sania State team is not a one sided team. They're

446
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 2: a team that's older. They can defend. While Drake's very good,

447
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 2: I don't know if I like trusting their younger backcourt,

448
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 2: like this is a deceptively younger backcourt that's playing around

449
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 2: Tucker Devrees and Darnold Brody up front. They're much better

450
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 2: at home. I still think this ISU Blue team is

451
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 2: all the way legit and and potentially even still undervalued.

452
00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 2: As impossible as that may seem at this point.

453
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go the other way.

454
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 5: I met that Indiana State.

455
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,719
Speaker 1: I was on Indiana State so happy to get a

456
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 1: victory there against Northern Iowa, and I looked at the

457
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 1: shooting splits and felt pretty fortunate. Northern Iowa or yea,

458
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: Northern Iowa one for fifteen from three at home, Indiana

459
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 1: State fifteen for thirty four from three on the road.

460
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 1: That should be like a thirty point blowout to me.

461
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 1: With when you're plus forty two from the three point line.

462
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,719
Speaker 1: The only one by eleven never really pulled away. So

463
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 1: I think Indiana State is all the way legit, but

464
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:29,960
Speaker 1: there could be.

465
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 4: Some regression coming.

466
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:36,119
Speaker 1: Drake rolled over weirdly at Belmont despite Belmont being shorthanded.

467
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,679
Speaker 1: I think maybe there was some look ahead factor to

468
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,919
Speaker 1: this game, and this is the like I said the

469
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 1: Marquee game in the Valley this year, I think Drake

470
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,440
Speaker 1: shows a much better effort and is able to knock

471
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,440
Speaker 1: down some more shots against the Indiana State defense and gets.

472
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 5: The home win.

473
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,159
Speaker 1: So kay, Yeah, three straight games, Power Game of the

474
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,199
Speaker 1: Week and major game of the week. I'm going with

475
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 1: the home team to get a victory.

476
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, Allen Drake. I'm not fitting India State

477
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:03,160
Speaker 4: the entire seat. They're just so so good. To Jim's point,

478
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 4: though by far the best defense in the conference. Per

479
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 4: Matt's point, they've been crushing it, but twenty four percent

480
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 4: from three is what opponents are shooting against them now.

481
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,400
Speaker 4: They do take away the three at the highest rate

482
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 4: in the conference, but they can test pretty well. Twenty

483
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 4: four percent is pretty yikes, Drake at home in the

484
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:23,120
Speaker 4: Valley this year, They've won by seventeen against Missouri State

485
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:26,199
Speaker 4: in sixteen against Illinois State. The home court obviously is

486
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 4: very real. I lean Drake again, not going to fade

487
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 4: Indiana State.

488
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,160
Speaker 1: For whatever it's worth, I mentioned those three point splits

489
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 1: that the shot quality score in that Northern Iowa Indiana

490
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 1: State game was Northern Iowa by seventeen, which kind of

491
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 1: makes sense to me at least given those splits.

492
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 4: Thursday, another great matchup. This one's in the summit. South

493
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:52,399
Speaker 4: Dakota State at Saint Thomas and the Tommys are minus

494
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 4: four per kim Bomb. This is for first place in

495
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 4: the league. Man Saint Thomas has been an absolute wagon lately,

496
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,679
Speaker 4: but no wins this season against the top two hundred.

497
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 4: Their last four games, they've played two ninety four, two seventy,

498
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 4: three oh nine and three h six. They smash bad competition,

499
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 4: they handle them. Teams can't compete. South Sakota State is

500
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,399
Speaker 4: not a bad team, Matthew. They have a ton of

501
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 4: depth up front. They have the best guard in this game,

502
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,120
Speaker 4: and Zeke Mayo. I like the jack Bunnies. I don't

503
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 4: think it's going to be four. I lean their way.

504
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:25,919
Speaker 2: I think I lean their way too, But I'm not

505
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 2: fading Johnny Tower and St.

506
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 3: Thomas.

507
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 2: South Dakota State getting Matt mems back is pretty huge,

508
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 2: Like they needed like a legit, gritty, versatile defender guy

509
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:38,120
Speaker 2: on the perimeter. And it also allows Zeke Mayo, not myo,

510
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 2: Zeke Mayo, excuse me, to.

511
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 3: Play a little more off the ball.

512
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 2: I've never been a huge Mayo fan, like I've always

513
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 2: fellt he's been kind of misutilized, Like he obviously a dynamic.

514
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 3: And electric scorer and talent, but it.

515
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,880
Speaker 2: Just seems like they sometimes don't know how to work

516
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 2: the offense with him in there, in construct with their

517
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 2: other bigs and options, mems kind of puts everyone in

518
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 2: the right place. But yeah, I mean Saint Thomas at home,

519
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,359
Speaker 2: and that's just not a team I want to fade

520
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 2: in their own in the friendly confines of Saint Paul,

521
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 2: their Jimbo. So I've gotten burned too many years or

522
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 2: too many times fading this team the last two years.

523
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 3: I'm just not doing it again.

524
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's kind of where I land.

525
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 1: Matthew a big like just initial reaction to this game

526
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,120
Speaker 1: is oh yeah, South dakost State as priced as the

527
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 1: inferior team is kind of crazy. Coming into this year,

528
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:24,439
Speaker 1: it was like Jack Bunny is in the rest in

529
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 1: this conference. I thought maybe Saint Thomas had a chance

530
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,119
Speaker 1: to like make the dark horse run. But Kai, I

531
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 1: did not think they would end up higher rated than

532
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: South Dakota State.

533
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,679
Speaker 4: That is, that's wild to me.

534
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 1: Last year they did split two years ago when Saint

535
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 1: Thomas was like all D three guys, it was too

536
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 1: South Dakota State blowouts. The athleticism gap has certainly closed

537
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 1: quite a bit here, but it's still an edge for

538
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 1: South Dakota State. I lean their way, Kai, just maybe

539
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 1: a little too scared to bet it go against my

540
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 1: big home theme of this pod.

541
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just think there's I think South Dakota State's better.

542
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 4: I don't think these ratings are are true to what

543
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 4: these teams are. Saint Thomas two hundred, ninety fifth rank schedule,

544
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 4: South dagost State ninety fifth. They've played five top one

545
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 4: hundred team Saint Thomas played one, so I think strength

546
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 4: of schedule has a lot to do with it right now. Again,

547
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 4: Saint Thomas is a really hard team to beat if

548
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,640
Speaker 4: you are not the better team. They are so well.

549
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 1: Coached, Like there's no chance Saint Thomas loses by three

550
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: and two on neutrals to UCF and George Mason. I

551
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 1: don't think they have that in them where South DA

552
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 1: Coast State does have that gear exactly.

553
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 4: Although Saint Thomas did hang with Marquette. Will always remember

554
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 4: that one good call, all right. Next section trash Man

555
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 4: pick of the week. The trash man pick of the week.

556
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 4: I'm the trash man.

557
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 1: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it.

558
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 4: Totally unreliable, undependable. That's it. You've been told off.

559
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 2: How do you like that? Good?

560
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 4: Last week did not disappoint. We had Army and Lafayette

561
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:55,120
Speaker 4: fifty six possessions in that game, ninety nine total points,

562
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 4: point eight four and point nine to three points per possession.

563
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 4: Lafayette pulled out the win by five. We think they're

564
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 4: going to get smashed by Colgate this week. We're going

565
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 4: back to the Army well though. For Wednesday, they're hosting

566
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 4: Loyola Maryland Armies projected minus five per kimpom. It's projected

567
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,879
Speaker 4: for another low possession game, sixty three possessions, one hundred

568
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 4: and twenty one points. It's the number three forty five

569
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 4: offense against the number three fifty five offense and Loyal

570
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 4: and Maryland Gym has allowed one point two to two

571
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 4: and one point two to four points per possesion and

572
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 4: Patriot played thus far. Not a good team, not a

573
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 4: good game. What are your thoughts?

574
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Loyal has probably played the two best

575
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 1: offenses in the league, Colegate and Lehigh, So maybe that's

576
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 1: a little small part of it. But yeah, I'm trying

577
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:44,879
Speaker 1: to think of a clever name for this section. Patriash

578
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 1: patriochh Man Pick of the week, because it's basically going

579
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 1: to be Patriot picks a lot this season. Slow team's,

580
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 1: terrible offenses, very little depth. It's it's a very much

581
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 1: rebuilding year for a conference that can't take transfers or

582
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 1: really really struggles to take transfers. So you see the

583
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 1: talent dips in these programs a lot more this particular game.

584
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 1: I don't really want to lay five points with Army.

585
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 1: I don't think the offense is good enough to lay

586
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 1: five points, But Matt, I might be jumping in the

587
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 1: trash with the under on this one.

588
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, under feels good.

589
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 2: You're right kind of mentioning the defensive disaster from the Greyhounds,

590
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 2: but they played Yeah, Colgate and lee High and Army

591
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 2: certainly is a.

592
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 3: Bad offensive team. We'll put it nicely.

593
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 2: I think if you're an Indiana fan. You may have

594
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,360
Speaker 2: seen the absolute best version of Army's offense when they're

595
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 2: making some crazy shots Assembly Hall. But this team really

596
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 2: can't shoot. They can't create anything at all. Probably a

597
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 2: lot of zone back forth in this game, long possessions.

598
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 3: I like the under.

599
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 2: Hopefully it's like one twenty and not like some stupid

600
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 2: like one to fifteen total. We'll see what it opens up.

601
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, the under seems like a pretty good play there,

602
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 4: unless Army's hot efficiency is always the beater of the unders.

603
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 3: Ah.

604
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 4: Yes, a trash man game in the week. Don't watch

605
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 4: it or do it be a sicko?

606
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 1: We don't care, all.

607
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 4: Right, spotlight section, and then we'll close it out forward

608
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 4: today for this week, Wagons and whisses is what I'm

609
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 4: calling this one here. Best ats teams in the country,

610
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 4: Worst ats teams in the country. Should you continue to

611
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 4: bet or fade these teams. Let's start with the best

612
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 4: over eighty percent cover rate right now, Minnesota number one

613
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 4: in the country, fourteen and one against the spread with

614
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 4: a nearly six point cover margin. I mean, I did

615
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 4: not see this coming into the year. Ben Jhonson, I

616
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 4: do think is a pretty solid coach at getting more

617
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 4: out of what the talent is on his roster. But

618
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 4: they are healthy this year, Jim. I know they missed

619
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 4: a couple guys for a bit there, but healthier than

620
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 4: in years past.

621
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, they missed Parker Fox and Isaiah Enan for two

622
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 1: straight years to season ending knee injuries.

623
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 4: They look a lot better.

624
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:45,959
Speaker 5: They've got two point guards out there.

625
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 1: We love when teams roll out that kind of a system,

626
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 1: and Dawson Garcia has given them a real star. I'm

627
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 1: going to probably look to continue backing them at home

628
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 1: in Big Ten play, especially their value is getting up

629
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 1: there in the market, so you might not get favorable numbers.

630
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: But they just beat Maryland at home despite kind of

631
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 1: a coin foot game the whole way. I sort of

632
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 1: trust him, Matt, and there's some Big Ten teams I

633
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 1: don't trust, and so I'll take the Gophers against most

634
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: of those untrustworthy teams.

635
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:16,959
Speaker 2: My concern is they've been winning a lot on size,

636
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 2: and the Big Ten has the best size you'll find

637
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 2: in anywhere in college basketball. So did they just play

638
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 2: to a strength that they will no longer have in

639
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 2: the Big Ten playground? That's my only concern. I like

640
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 2: Ben Johnson, We've all liked Ben Johnson since day one.

641
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 2: Finally had the roster. It looks like, you know, you

642
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 2: can kind of hang with the best of the Big ten.

643
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 2: The best, but at least the middle of the pack of.

644
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 4: The Big ten.

645
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 3: I think it could be sustainable. That's my concern.

646
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 4: The second best ATS team in the country this year

647
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 4: has been cal State Northridge at twelve and one with

648
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 4: an eight and a half point cover margin, which is

649
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 4: number one in the country. A little smoke and mirrors

650
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 4: to start the year for Seasun. We mentioned them earlier

651
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 4: in the show. They didn't cover against Stanford, but they

652
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 4: lost in Lemoyne at home by ten points, and that's

653
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 4: the only game they really haven't done well in. From

654
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 4: an ATS perspective, Matt Or the Matador is real. We

655
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 4: talked about any Newman briefly already. Will you continue to

656
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 4: back them or is their value getting a little bit

657
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 4: too high?

658
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 2: Uh? No, I like them, I don't keep backing them.

659
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 2: Some people will pointed out their shot quality profile is

660
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 2: and great. They do take a lot of mid rangers.

661
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 2: There's some holdovers from last year's Trent Johnson team.

662
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 3: And so I think he Newman.

663
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 2: She's kind of working with that but then optimizing every

664
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 2: other part of the puzzle. I guess the way they defend,

665
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 2: the way he juggles rotations, and they haven't had a

666
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 2: full Jeohnny Hunt like season yet either, so he could

667
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 2: provide another level of improvement if he comes along.

668
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 3: I like the Doors. I'm all in on Andy.

669
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, they I'm worried about the value with them, like

670
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 1: if they might be at the peak of it. They

671
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 1: are second in the country and adjusted efficiency margin rise

672
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: from the opening day of the season. The number one

673
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 1: team is the team you will mention shortly.

674
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 5: In the second here.

675
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm mega impressed by them, but no one's

676
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 1: making threes against them so far in the league. Play

677
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 1: not quite smoking mirrors, Like I think it's legit where

678
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 1: they are. I just don't think they're undervalued anymore. Where

679
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 1: keep hammering, keep betting. I don't think that's going to

680
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 1: be there.

681
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean playing like the best team in the

682
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 4: Big West right now, which is absolutely crazy to me.

683
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 4: High point is that next team Gym eleven to two

684
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 4: and two against the spread, almost a bypoint cover margins.

685
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 4: The difference between high Point this year and last year.

686
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 4: They're covering on the road. They were an awesome home

687
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 4: team last season, terrible on the road, like automatic win

688
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 4: fading them three to zero this year three zero two

689
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 4: on the road. From an ATS perspective, we liked High

690
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 4: Point coming in. Have they exceeded your expectations though?

691
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, Holy cow, I didn't think this team would have

692
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 1: a top fifty offense, and that's They've been a tough

693
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 1: total handicap for me, kay, because it just didn't expect

694
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 1: the offense to be top fifty in the defense to

695
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 1: be as bad as it has been. But they brought

696
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 1: an Allen huss off the Creighton staff. We know McDermott

697
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 1: is very well known for his offensive creativity and kind

698
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 1: of pay attention to shot selection. Their defense at creating,

699
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 1: they give up like the most mid rangers in the country.

700
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: I think high Points trying to do that, but they

701
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 1: lack athletes. But man, Matthew, this team hammers the rim.

702
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 1: We get to the free throw line a ton, they

703
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 1: get on the offensive glass. They're just really tough to guard,

704
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 1: especially off the bounce. I can't say I'm gonna keep

705
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 1: backing them because again, because they have the highest rise

706
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 1: in ken pum and I don't know if they're they

707
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 1: have the ceiling to keep rising. But it's not someone

708
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: I'm looking to fade, and I'm probably closer to backing

709
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 1: them than I am to fading.

710
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not going to back them because they'll be

711
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 2: a huge favorites in a lot of these conference games, and

712
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 2: I just don't know if they're going to be able

713
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 2: to consistently beat teams by margin, maybe situationally at home

714
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 2: against like the top teams in that conference that are

715
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 2: spots to back them. But yet, I mean they're basically

716
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 2: top one hundred now in kem Pum. It's just like

717
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 2: the value is gone. Love Alan huss not going to

718
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 2: fade them, but not eager to continue to run on

719
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 2: the counter and pack them either.

720
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, to your point, they host Asheville on Wednesday. Six

721
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 4: point favorite for Kim Pump.

722
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a lot probub, that's fever for Ashville and the

723
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 2: other teams.

724
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, preseason that number is probably Asheville minus three.

725
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:10,959
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's changed quite a bit. Ye Okay. Two more

726
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:14,840
Speaker 4: in the over eighty percent bracket here SIU Carbondale eleven

727
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,840
Speaker 4: and two and one against the spread plus six cover margin.

728
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 4: This is shocking because two of their starters from last

729
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 4: year are starting for Big Ten teams, and Lance Jones

730
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 4: at Purdue and Marcus Domask at Illinois and by the way,

731
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 4: Domask is like an All Big Ten player and they're

732
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 4: still excellent this season. Southern Illinois is Avia Johnson is

733
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 4: the player of the year in the Missouri Valley right now.

734
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 4: If you were to stop today, he's I think the

735
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 4: leading scorer in the country. Just absolutely wild stuff from

736
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:44,080
Speaker 4: Southern Illinois. A great coach, and Brian Mullens there and

737
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:47,280
Speaker 4: then Troy is nine two and one. They are also

738
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 4: smoking merors. For me, I think they started off either

739
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 4: zero to three or one and two against the spread,

740
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:53,839
Speaker 4: and I kind of said, Okay, this team's not ready

741
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 4: too young, and guess what, they've been awesome ever since.

742
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 4: Troy and sau thoughts from Jim I.

743
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 1: These two are, especially Troy really stuns me. I'm with you, Kai,

744
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 1: I think early I was like, yeah, it's just you know,

745
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 1: it's Scott Cross, great coach guy we like all the

746
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 1: way back to his Ut Arlington days, but this team

747
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:15,320
Speaker 1: doesn't quite have the juice. A ton of roster turnover

748
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 1: freshman junior college guys, so it seems like it's gonna

749
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:21,359
Speaker 1: be wide variance outcomes, except the only variance end has

750
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 1: been terrific. So it's still trying to catch up with them,

751
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 1: figure out just how good their freshmen are and how

752
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 1: high I should have them rated Southern Illinois. I don't

753
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:32,720
Speaker 1: I don't get it that I need you to explain

754
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 1: how they are this good. Xavier Johnson has been a supernova.

755
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 1: Why is he so much better than he was last year?

756
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,359
Speaker 1: It's it's impressive. I don't really have.

757
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 5: Much to say on them.

758
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 1: I've lost a decent amount of coin fading.

759
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,840
Speaker 2: I sat you Brian Mullens is really good. That's a

760
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 2: big part of it. Xavier Johnson has been awesome. As

761
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 2: you mentioned, I do think this team's kind of a

762
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 2: net fade for me, Like I think this is sort

763
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 2: of a house of cards, Like opponents are shooting twenty

764
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,360
Speaker 2: five percent for three against them. I don't believe if

765
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 2: they're like a top twenty three point shooting teams themselves.

766
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 2: I a couple of games, there are some wild swings

767
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,239
Speaker 2: where you know, Cove could gone either way. Yeah, the

768
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 2: Indiana State game they lost by thirty, But that's really

769
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 2: been their only bad performance all year. I mean you

770
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 2: could argue losing a home to Austin p was bad.

771
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 2: Austin PE's been pretty feisty.

772
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 3: I don't know.

773
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 2: I don't see enough like jaw dropping pegs on their

774
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 2: resume for me to like truly believe that this is

775
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 2: a real like ATS machine I want to get on

776
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 2: at this point. So I actually think they're kind of

777
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 2: a fade in conference, especially on.

778
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 5: The road to your point.

779
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:32,919
Speaker 1: Mat They're ninety fifth in ken Pom, but just using

780
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 1: shot qualities rankings, which I think factors in a little

781
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 1: bit of that regression due on both ends and three

782
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 1: point percentage, there are one hundred and eightieth so like

783
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 1: double the ranking.

784
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 4: I agree with net fade. Xavier Johnson is number nine

785
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:48,280
Speaker 4: and kim Pom Player of the Year right now number nine. Crazy.

786
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 4: That's the craziest stat I think the entire season. So

787
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:55,879
Speaker 4: a different section of the best ATS team's best cover

788
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,240
Speaker 4: margin a good way to measure just how dominant teams

789
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 4: are against the spread or undervalued, at least to this point.

790
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 4: Seasun we mentioned plus eight and a half cover margin

791
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 4: that's insane, by far, the best in the country BYU

792
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:11,240
Speaker 4: plus seven point seven eleven and three against the spread.

793
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:15,839
Speaker 4: They just got handled by Cincinnati at home, which was

794
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 4: shocking BYU in Big twelve play. Buy or sell real quick,

795
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,839
Speaker 4: Matthew buyer cell BYU in Big twelve play. So I'll

796
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 4: stop there.

797
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:26,719
Speaker 5: And sell the way they're priced, sell like price, like

798
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 5: a top ten.

799
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 2: I think at home they'll be really good, you know,

800
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 2: they just weren't just start Big twelve play. I think

801
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 2: they'll be good enough at home to make them out

802
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 2: a full fledged sell everything.

803
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:34,879
Speaker 3: But I think they're in a cell.

804
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 5: Yeah, I agree with Yeah.

805
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 1: They can't score inside like they've been any couching inferior

806
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 1: teams from the three, and they took forty six threes

807
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 1: against Cincinnati in eighteen two's yeah, and ten free throws

808
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:49,719
Speaker 1: like they're just not getting there. They didn't get easy

809
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 1: buckets against a really athletic defense. I think even the

810
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 1: difference between like a number one hundred in Ken Palm

811
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 1: and a top Big twelve team.

812
00:37:57,560 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 4: Is too severe.

813
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 5: I think they're going to start a little with athleticism.

814
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, try Art is coming back, so that'll probably help

815
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 4: the split there. But yeah, tough, tough start there. We

816
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 4: talked about India State already on this podcast. They have

817
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 4: a seven point cover margin nine to five against the spread,

818
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 4: and so does Purdue Fort Wayne seven point cover margin

819
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 4: nine four and one. We're looking like the best Horizon team.

820
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 4: They finally lost the right state. But again another team

821
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 4: that lost a lot from last year and they've kind

822
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 4: of replenished and they've been playing great basketball. So the

823
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 4: Massedons a team to watch, definitely can win the Horizon.

824
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 1: They've played three hundred and fifty six ranked schedule per

825
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 1: ten pum So I mean, I know, I know he

826
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: tries to adjust for all that. But another team that

827
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 1: is making a ton of threes and no one's making

828
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 1: them against them, So I believe also a fade in

829
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:42,839
Speaker 1: league play.

830
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 4: All right, let's switch to the downside. The worst ATS

831
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 4: teams in the country. These five teams are below twenty

832
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:51,240
Speaker 4: two percent right now, only five teams in the country.

833
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 4: UTEP is the worst ATS team. This surprised me. Two

834
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:57,919
Speaker 4: ten and one against the spread, minus four point seven

835
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 4: cover margin. What's wrong with your min Matthew?

836
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 3: Can't shoot? Same thing as last year.

837
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:04,359
Speaker 2: We thought they could shoot to start the year because

838
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 2: they made like a bunch of threes against non D

839
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 2: one teams and it's the same sad song. I love

840
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 2: Joe Golding, but he's just I think stubbornly ignored shooting

841
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 2: in skill in his roster construction, like Christians at the

842
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 2: same issue last but Christian's actually addressed it this year

843
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 2: with some you know, rodding, some balance to their offense.

844
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 2: But utepe is the same thing. They just it's one

845
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 2: side of the ball. They can't protect it very well either.

846
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 2: It's just a tough recipe to win consistently.

847
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 4: They have one of the coolest stats in the country,

848
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 4: the number one free throw rate the country offensively three

849
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 4: hundred and sixtieth.

850
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 2: Defensively, your head down barrel and hits the rim baby

851
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 2: hack hack hack.

852
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 1: Not fun ones to watch because they're just parades to

853
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 1: the free throw line.

854
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:45,879
Speaker 4: Also three fiftieth turnover eate fourth on defense such as

855
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 4: it's just a hectic game every time you watch them.

856
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 4: Detroit is a team I expected to see here. They

857
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 4: are the second worst team in the country from an

858
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 4: ATS perspective, three and fourteen minus six and a half

859
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 4: cover margin. They don't have a single win this season.

860
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 4: They are really really bad. I watched them against Ipui

861
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 4: Jim and I bet Detroit and I said, I have

862
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 4: made a huge mistake. This is the worst team in

863
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 4: the country.

864
00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't believe they've covered three games, just based.

865
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 5: On how even how they've been lately.

866
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 1: They almost won at Old Miss, which is probably a

867
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:18,399
Speaker 1: huge part of why Old Miss is advanced analytics are

868
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 1: so low relative to their overall record. But yeah, and

869
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 1: lately they've been missing Jayden Stone, who's like their best player,

870
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:27,840
Speaker 1: and he kind of take that out of there, and

871
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 1: they don't really know what to do. I'm not auto

872
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 1: fading them Kai, but against teams where I think they're

873
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 1: at least STEMI motivated to take care of business. I've

874
00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 1: been kind of happily betting against Detroit.

875
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:45,040
Speaker 4: Yes, agreed in the Swack Pine Bluff two to nine

876
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 4: against the spread minus four cover margin. I beg them

877
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 4: on Saturday. Certainly not as good as I expected. Swack's

878
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,360
Speaker 4: tough obviously to really evaluate. You never know who's going

879
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 4: to step up. But that's not a not a team

880
00:40:56,000 --> 00:41:00,919
Speaker 4: to back. Currently, Pacific out in the wc Z three

881
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 4: and twelve against the spread minus nine point four cover margin.

882
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 4: That's the second worst in the country. They showed signs

883
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:10,359
Speaker 4: of life by taking San Francisco to overtime but then

884
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 4: mad they got promptly smoked the very next game. Your

885
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:14,399
Speaker 4: thoughts on Pacific, it's not a.

886
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 2: Good team fan forums or maybe those depressing read you'll find,

887
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,479
Speaker 2: and there are some very depressing and ominous fan forums

888
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 2: out there, of many, actually the Pacifics right there at

889
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:26,280
Speaker 2: the top. I should do a forum tone meter power rankings,

890
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 2: but Pacific would be number one on the bad end

891
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 2: of the spectrum.

892
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:32,239
Speaker 4: And finally, Old Dominion, we closed with a Sunbelt team

893
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 4: almost last section. We're going to close with a Sunbelt

894
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 4: team this section Old Dominion three and eleven. It's the

895
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 4: spread minus four point four cover margin. Unfortunate circumstances of

896
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 4: their head coach Jeff Jones had a heart attack. I

897
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 4: don't think he's back on the bench quite yet. They've

898
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 4: had guys in an out of lineup. They're just not

899
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 4: that good right now, Jim, I'm not a team I

900
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 4: would be excited to back currently.

901
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:55,879
Speaker 1: No, they're not playing a lot of defense of late.

902
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 1: They kind of especially when they had guys Outlet and

903
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 1: Chauncey Jenkins, the Troy game team you mentioned on the

904
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 1: other side of this spectrum, they just were like, let's

905
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 1: play a track meet. You can have all the lamps

906
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:10,320
Speaker 1: you want, We'll just kind of do whatever, which is

907
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 1: kind of the opposite of way you think of with

908
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 1: the Jeff Jones team. Like in the past, you's been

909
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 1: super disciplined defensively playing the half court, and this one's

910
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 1: like helter skelter. They take a ton of mid range jumpers,

911
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:22,920
Speaker 1: don't get to the line, can't shoot threes. It's just

912
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:26,240
Speaker 1: can we make midrange jays? And yeah, so they're already

913
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 1: losing from a math perspective when they take the floor

914
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:31,200
Speaker 1: and it's and now they're not defending either, So yeah,

915
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:31,880
Speaker 1: it's a nightmare.

916
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 4: They've been gripping it and ripping it up and down lately. Okay,

917
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 4: worst cover margin in the country number one Sienna a

918
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:44,359
Speaker 4: minus ten point one cover margin. That's almost impossible. That's

919
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:47,359
Speaker 4: almost impossible. Not only are you not winning games by

920
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 4: ten points, you're not covering games by ten points. And

921
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 4: they're ranked in the bottom five Kim Pump, which makes

922
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,880
Speaker 4: it even tougher because they're getting big spreads four and

923
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:58,440
Speaker 4: ten against the spread. Overall, they've taken money I think

924
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 4: the last three or four games that do do guys

925
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 4: getting back in the lineup, But guess what, Matt, They

926
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 4: still suck.

927
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, the market loves to bet them. Good luck to

928
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:08,719
Speaker 3: you market continuing to back this team.

929
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 2: I know they're healthy and whatever, but like, I don't

930
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:12,800
Speaker 2: think this is a good basketball team by.

931
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 1: Any And they're about to do the Buffalo trip to

932
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:18,840
Speaker 1: Canisius and Niagara that every MAC person says is horrible.

933
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:21,840
Speaker 1: When young teams struggle with focus wise, and this is

934
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 1: one of the youngest teams in the country, keep them

935
00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:25,800
Speaker 1: away from me.

936
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 4: Kai could be bad. We mentioned Pacific minus nine point

937
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 4: four cover margin, Middle Tennessee minus eight cover margin, three

938
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 4: and ten against the spread, and Jim they lost their

939
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 4: point guard pretty early in the season to an injury.

940
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 4: Even still, I'm surprised of this bad It's almost like

941
00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 4: they're regressing after McDevitt had this team back for a

942
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 4: couple of seasons at the top of the league.

943
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:51,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, they can't score at all. Their offense is terrible,

944
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 1: and Weston would have helped. But even even with him,

945
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:56,600
Speaker 1: I think the offense would be a problem. And they

946
00:43:56,600 --> 00:43:58,720
Speaker 1: had that West coast road trip they hit Saint Mary's

947
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:03,400
Speaker 1: in southern Utah. It wasn't good. Yeah, it's concerning because

948
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 1: mcdavin had a couple bad years to start, and then

949
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:09,759
Speaker 1: suddenly had a resurgent Middle Tennessee squad last couple and

950
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 1: they're sinking back towards the depths this year unfortunately.

951
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 4: Big shame. And we closed with Simo, a team that

952
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:18,720
Speaker 4: made the Instably Tournament last year under Brad Corn minus

953
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:20,520
Speaker 4: seven point seven cover March in three to nine. It

954
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 4: gets the spread, Matt. I don't really have many reasons

955
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 4: for it. I guess they're young, but they still have

956
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 4: some guys back from last year. They're still way worse

957
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:28,360
Speaker 4: than I expected.

958
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:30,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe they'll just go on a rocket ship run

959
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 2: and so just got and put them on your back

960
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,040
Speaker 2: burner and then wait till you'll you know, wait till

961
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 2: you're catching like ten points against Western Illinois or sixteen

962
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 2: points against uh Morehead. Maybe bet them then, but until March,

963
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 2: don't even think about this team on your bellows. It's

964
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 2: really tough right now. Defensively just disastrous. Offensively that just

965
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 2: no cohesion.

966
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:51,080
Speaker 3: It doesn't look good.

967
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:53,440
Speaker 1: I don't think if you put them in Middle Tennessee

968
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 1: in a gym together, they'd get one hundred points in

969
00:44:56,600 --> 00:45:00,720
Speaker 1: a fifty minute game. Like those offenses are horrible Equan Smart,

970
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:02,879
Speaker 1: the former Maryland transfer, is supposed to be their best player.

971
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 1: He's four for thirty one from three. It's bleak for CMO.

972
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, not great. What is great is our podcast Big

973
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 4: Bets on Campus Action Network bet ingm Thank you so much.

974
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 4: We are the Three Men. We will be back next week,

975
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:20,400
Speaker 4: same time, Wednesday morning. Till then, good Louk with your bets.

976
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:21,919
Speaker 4: Enjoy the ball.

977
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:40,040
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

978
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:42,880
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

979
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler