WEBVTT - Disney Earnings and Google's New AR Glasses 0:00:02.320 --> 0:00:05.680 From the heart of where innovation, money and power collive 0:00:06.440 --> 0:00:10.959 in Silicon Valley and beyond. This is Bloomberg Technology with 0:00:11.000 --> 0:00:27.400 Emily Jay I'm Emily changing San Francisco, and this is 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:30.560 Bloomberg Technology coming up in the next hour. Whoever said 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:33.640 streaming is slowing down didn't tell Disney, the company reporting 0:00:33.640 --> 0:00:37.560 a major increase in subscribers for Disney. Plus this after 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:40.920 concerns following Netflix's shocking drop. We're gonna break down the 0:00:41.000 --> 0:00:44.800 numbers and where the streaming business goes from here. Plus 0:00:44.800 --> 0:00:47.960 how low can crypto go? The massive sell off that 0:00:48.080 --> 0:00:51.959 started with tech is spilling over to cryptocurrencies at Bitcoin 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:55.800 and Ether have both fallen more than fifty since record 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:59.840 highs last year. And Google gives us a sneak peak 0:00:59.880 --> 0:01:02.560 a our glasses. What can they do and when can 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:04.600 you get your hands on them? And how do they 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:07.720 not repeat the failures of Google Glass A top Google 0:01:07.720 --> 0:01:09.960 exact call join us. We'll get to all of that 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:11.480 in a moment, but first let's get a look at 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:14.440 the market. Stocks sliding on signs inflation isn't going away 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:18.759 anytime soon. And then as dat closing down. Three bloombergs 0:01:18.800 --> 0:01:21.360 Emily Grafhao here with the latest Emily walk us through 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:24.000 the day. Hi, Emily, what was another volatile day for 0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:27.080 the US equity market. The SMP five hundred ended down 0:01:27.160 --> 0:01:29.800 over one point six percent, but the pain was really 0:01:29.840 --> 0:01:32.720 concentrated in those tech stocks. We saw the Nasdaq one 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:37.120 fall over three percent. Big tech giants like Tesla and 0:01:37.160 --> 0:01:40.520 Apple were really falling along with the index. And this 0:01:40.600 --> 0:01:43.040 of course came after we had some CPI data that 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:47.080 showed investors inflation is higher than expected and probably going 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:50.280 to prompt the Federal Reserve to continue on that aggressive 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:53.760 monetary tightening path that doesn't really bode well for high 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:56.440 growth stocks. Field on, the u S tenure was lower 0:01:56.480 --> 0:01:59.040 for the third day, but didn't seem to provide any 0:01:59.080 --> 0:02:02.080 support for u S stocks. Also, the dollar finishing the 0:02:02.160 --> 0:02:05.240 day in New York largely flat but still approaching its 0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:09.480 largest a highest level since May. We talked about a 0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:11.640 little bit of pain in tech stocks, but the pain 0:02:11.800 --> 0:02:14.240 is even worse when you look at the crypto markets. 0:02:14.480 --> 0:02:18.720 Bitcoin falling below that key thirty thou dollar level, and 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:21.400 this of course was near an eleven month low, and 0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:25.720 we're also seeing ethereum down about forty percent year to date. 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:27.960 The risk goff mood and market has kind of been 0:02:28.000 --> 0:02:30.760 weighing on cryptos pretty much all year, but the pain 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:33.520 right now is really being felt because of the plunge 0:02:33.600 --> 0:02:36.560 in Terra. It's an algorithmic stable coin, but it lost 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:39.760 its dollar peg earlier this week. It plunged about eight 0:02:39.880 --> 0:02:42.720 percent today, paired back some of those losses just a 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:46.600 little bit, but really worrying those crypto investors. We also 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:50.480 saw Luna, which is a crypto token that's linked UM 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:53.720 and helps maintain the Terra peg, also fall. There was 0:02:53.760 --> 0:02:57.560 an exchange traded product from twenty one shares that tracks Terra. 0:02:57.880 --> 0:03:02.040 It fell over nine today. I heard from Bloomberg Intelligences 0:03:02.160 --> 0:03:04.560 of Eric Baltuna is that is one of the worst 0:03:05.000 --> 0:03:09.959 single day exchange traded product declines in ETP history ever, 0:03:10.040 --> 0:03:12.639 so a lot of losses there. Let's get to Disney though. 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:16.520 They reported earnings, missed on revenue, also missed on EPs, 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:20.239 but they did beat on Disney Plus subscribers and reporting 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:24.400 more Disney Plus subscribers than expected. Quite a change from UM, 0:03:24.440 --> 0:03:27.400 its streaming competitor, Netflix, which of course the stock plunged 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:31.160 after they reported earnings. Disney actually down a little bit 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:34.120 in the postmarket zoom out here to date, Disney is 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:37.520 down over thirty so we'll see how analysts are taking 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:42.040 this earning support that was largely positive. Alright, Bloomer's Emily 0:03:42.080 --> 0:03:44.160 Grafe O, thank you. I want to stick with Disney. Now. 0:03:44.240 --> 0:03:47.200 Talk more about those results with Ross Gerber, president CEO 0:03:47.320 --> 0:03:51.400 of Gerbert Kawasaki, a long time Disney shareholders. So look, 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:54.240 Ross hul in ESPN plus subscribers a little light, but 0:03:54.280 --> 0:03:58.280 you have to look at that massive subscriber increase and 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:02.200 feel some sense of relief, even surprise. I don't know, 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:05.920 is this what you were expecting. Well, we didn't really 0:04:05.920 --> 0:04:09.200 have much expectation as far as subscriber because it's so 0:04:09.400 --> 0:04:12.400 hard to predict what, you know, consumers do based off 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:15.320 what contents being released on each streamer. But what we 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:17.200 now see it, you know, at the end of this 0:04:17.279 --> 0:04:20.520 earnings period, is that Netflix did lose a certain amount 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:24.320 of subscribers to the competitors, one being Disney Plus and 0:04:24.320 --> 0:04:27.560 and the other being you know, Peacock or and Paramount Plus. 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:31.440 So um. You know, certainly we don't know if that's 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:34.640 a permanent change in behavior, because we think streamers go 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:38.080 back and forth between what you know shows are you know, 0:04:38.160 --> 0:04:41.320 popular at the time. So Disney had very good results 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:44.720 for their um, their streaming businesses, and and much better 0:04:44.800 --> 0:04:47.520 than we expected because obviously we thought they had a 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:51.640 tough comparison to the COVID era. And you know, quite frankly, 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:54.520 all of their businesses are starting to improve now and 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:58.360 we're starting to see revenue dramatically increase in parks and resorts, 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:01.640 and and actually a wonderful weekend at the theaters this weekend. 0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:05.200 So you know, with the valuations so cheap now in 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:08.560 the stock market, stocks like Disney are quite compelling for 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:11.680 long term investors. I thought what CEO Bob J. Peck 0:05:11.760 --> 0:05:14.680 had to say about Disney Plus subscribers who are grown 0:05:14.720 --> 0:05:18.120 ups but don't have children was really interesting. Take a 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:21.680 quick listen to what he had to say. It's certainly 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:25.400 popular with families, but as a reminder, almost half of 0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:30.840 Disney Plus subscribers are adults without kids, and he said 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:33.520 he's going to try to cater more to that audience. 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:36.600 What do you make of that strategy, Well, I think 0:05:37.240 --> 0:05:39.880 his point is really trying to broaden the market because 0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:42.680 obviously Disney Plus is just a no brainer if you 0:05:42.760 --> 0:05:45.880 have kids, So you know, what would be your impetus 0:05:45.480 --> 0:05:49.440 to getting what is perceived as a kid's channel. But see, 0:05:49.440 --> 0:05:51.599 when you're talking about adults, you're talking about gen xers 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:54.640 like us who have grown up with Star Wars, and 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:57.240 so what he's really saying is that there's an enormous 0:05:57.279 --> 0:06:00.320 audience base of people who don't have kids, who are 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:03.919 really into the I P like, you know, Star Wars 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:07.040 and Marvel movies and you know, you think, oh, these 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:09.479 are kids movies, but they're actually not. You know, they're 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:12.000 adult movies and it's adult content. And I think that's 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:15.200 why they've been successful, is that there is stuff for 0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:18.720 different age groups on Disney Plus. How do you think 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:23.719 Disney Plus holds up if Netflix releases a lower priced 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:29.920 ad supported tier. I don't really see it as an issue. Like, 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:33.320 so look at it this way. So you have basically 0:06:33.360 --> 0:06:37.000 three main streamers now with with Hulu, Disney Plus, Netflix, 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:40.520 and what will be HBO Discover or whatever that is. 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:42.479 Those will be the three main players. And then you 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:45.680 have Amazon and Apple are the players that don't charge 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:48.640 for streaming services and they try to sell other products. 0:06:48.839 --> 0:06:51.640 And so when you look at the you know, environment 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:56.920 that's out there today, I think Disney's extremely well positioned 0:06:57.520 --> 0:07:02.080 in the multiple content offerings. So with ESPN plus their 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:05.359 agreement with UFC and and really their numbers would have 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:08.400 been completely blowout numbers if it weren't for the billion 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:11.840 dollars they had to pay producers and other people to 0:07:11.840 --> 0:07:13.880 to put stuff on the streamers instead of in the 0:07:13.880 --> 0:07:16.600 theaters over the last year or two. So Disney took 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:19.280 a big hit, you know, investing in the streamers, but 0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:24.000 that's gonna pay off big time for them long term. Meantime, 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:28.600 he's talking about rolling out into fifty three new markets. Obviously, 0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:31.800 we've talked a lot about Netflix's global appeal, a lot 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:34.080 of you know, new content coming in from for example, 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:36.720 South Korea and the success of Squid Game. Do you 0:07:36.760 --> 0:07:41.640 think Disney can repeat that? No, and I don't think 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:45.120 it would benefit them to. You know, Disney has a 0:07:45.200 --> 0:07:49.400 different approach to content. So if I make a Pixar 0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:52.640 movie that will play in all countries in the world, 0:07:53.360 --> 0:07:57.120 you just change the language. But the content works globally, 0:07:57.400 --> 0:08:02.160 where Netflix doesn't make kids content really and so it 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:05.480 doesn't work globally. So I've recently watched a lot of 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:09.440 the Asian based shows that they've been making Korean dramas, 0:08:10.000 --> 0:08:13.400 Japanese crime movies. You know, I watched some of these 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:18.800 stuff on Netflix and Netflix has a far deeper approach 0:08:18.960 --> 0:08:24.120 to the local cultures and artistic sensibilities than I think 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:27.280 the approach Disney has. So I think that Netflix ultimately 0:08:27.320 --> 0:08:29.600 is going to be much more successful internationally. And I 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:31.800 think what Disney is really focused on is you have 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:34.839 hot start in India where they they're a main player 0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:36.920 in India, and it's a massive market, and I think 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:39.280 they're very focused on that market. And it makes a 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:42.120 lot of sense for them to focus on bigger markets 0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:45.200 where they can put money into content and not have 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:48.920 to spread it between so many regions. Um, So, parks, 0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:52.440 let's go want to talk about parks because you know 0:08:52.679 --> 0:08:56.000 trade Peck saying domestic parks are firing on all cylinders, 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:58.319 but they might have to take a big hit to 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:02.719 operating income three a fifty million dollars potentially because of 0:09:02.920 --> 0:09:06.400 the closures of its parks in Hong Kong and Shanghai 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:08.960 do the pandemic and as we know, Shanghai is on 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:14.080 a very restrictive lockdown to this day. How concerned are 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:17.280 you about that? I mean, for me, this is probably 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:19.840 the biggest concern I have as an investor right now. 0:09:20.280 --> 0:09:22.800 You know, I'm I'm not that worried about the FED 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:25.520 actually because I you know, it's easy for them to 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:30.880 stop causing pain. But like China has, we have a 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:32.840 lot of business that we do in China, whether it's Apple, 0:09:32.880 --> 0:09:36.640 Tesla or Disney and many others, And and this approach 0:09:36.679 --> 0:09:39.920 in Shanghai has been hugely detrimental to the economy in China, 0:09:40.160 --> 0:09:44.319 to the people in China, and it may or may 0:09:44.320 --> 0:09:48.520 not work. I'm less believing that it's gonna work. So 0:09:48.520 --> 0:09:50.840 so this is a big issue for for Disney on 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:53.040 the short term and and and maybe even on the 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:55.640 medium and long term in in a country like China. 0:09:56.320 --> 0:09:59.400 So I don't expect it to be easy for Disney 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:02.400 to do business us in China for the foreseeable future 0:10:02.480 --> 0:10:05.480 because of their goal of having no COVID and and 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:07.920 the fact that theme parks are sort of the exact 0:10:08.000 --> 0:10:10.640 opposite of what you know, the Chinese government wants people 0:10:10.679 --> 0:10:12.679 doing right now. But I do think that that's more 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:14.400 a short term issue than a long term one, but 0:10:14.480 --> 0:10:17.040 one that one weigh on Disney well. I wonder if 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:20.360 you think doing business in Florida being more difficult is 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:22.760 a short or long term issue you have. You've been 0:10:22.800 --> 0:10:26.080 pretty clear that you're not a huge fan of Bob Speck. 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:29.520 You don't think he handled this situation in Florida very well. 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:32.520 Disney is now losing these special privileges that they've enjoyed 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:36.880 in Florida for decades as a result of this, you know, 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:39.640 very controversial don't say gay bill. And you know it's 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:43.200 clear that lawmakers in Florida are you know, taking this 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:46.840 out on Disney. What's your take on shape back now 0:10:46.920 --> 0:10:48.800 now that you see these numbers, are you having a 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:51.280 change of heart at all? Or are you still not 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:54.720 a fan? Well? I mean he just fired the PR guy, 0:10:54.800 --> 0:10:58.360 right uh uh for for what's going on in Florida. Um, 0:10:59.280 --> 0:11:01.880 you know, there's a lot of things I don't think 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:06.200 he's handling the way I wish. The Florida situation is 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:09.520 really tough one. But I think that Disney wins in 0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:12.120 the end because in the end, whether you're on the 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:13.959 right wing or the left wing, your kids want to 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:17.160 Disneyland and and there's a lot of people type stuff 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:19.760 onto Twitter or Facebook, but then they go to Disneyland, 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:22.400 So you know, I don't think that that's such an issue. 0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:25.679 And and really the politicians in Florida are sounding and 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:28.840 the people of Florida with higher costs, higher debts and 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:34.840 taxes because Disney's actually relationship benefits Florida. So what I 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:36.880 think is this will smooth out over time. And I 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:40.840 think these political wars over the right and the left 0:11:41.720 --> 0:11:44.400 are more played out in the media than in people's 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:48.600 actual behavior. All Right, we're continuing to get headlines from 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:52.040 the Call Disney saying they still expect Disney Plus to 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:54.120 grow even more in the second half of the year, 0:11:54.200 --> 0:11:56.120 though maybe not as much as we've seen it grow 0:11:56.679 --> 0:11:59.160 in the first half of the year. So that of 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:02.200 course the number to watch, that big subscriber number. Ross Gerber, 0:12:02.360 --> 0:12:05.080 co founder of Gerbert Kawasaki, always love having you on 0:12:05.080 --> 0:12:15.640 the show. Ross, Thank you for stopping by. There are 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:17.760 a lot of things that are going on, um, a 0:12:17.760 --> 0:12:20.200 lot of different disturbances around the world, but you know, 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:23.480 for us, it's really about focusing on our long term strategy. 0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:26.440 So as mortgage rates have gone up and and they're 0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:29.280 gonna they still have further to go. Clearly, homebuyers are 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:31.600 gonna have to trade down to slightly lower price points. 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:34.000 But most of the data that I've seen around housing 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:39.360 still predicts strong housing appreciation. I think people are overreacting to, uh, 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:43.679 some of the inflation worries some of the other travel players. 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:46.440 We've been studying inflation pretty carefully now for the past 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:48.959 four or six quarters, because I think it happened, actually, 0:12:49.720 --> 0:12:51.760 or the growth of inflation I should say, you know, 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:55.599 occurred maybe a bit more sharply than some had anticipated, 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:57.960 and it certainly it continues to be a real concern 0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:02.120 some top tech execs. There. We've had right here on 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:06.680 Bloomberg Technology reacting to concerns about rising inflation. Wednesday's report 0:13:06.720 --> 0:13:09.960 painting a troubling bigger picture for tech, especially as the 0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:13.440 FED tries to combat rising prices, all of this adding 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:16.160 to the decline we've seen in tech docs in particular. 0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:19.079 For more on this, I'm joined by Steve Sarah's no 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:21.560 founder and partner at Active in Capital. Steve, thank you 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:23.160 so much for joining us. So what do you think 0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:26.440 the impact more broadly of inflation has been so far 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:29.880 on tech. Well, when we went and looked back at 0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:32.960 the seventies during the stack placing period, the best performance 0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:35.880 sector was actually consumer products and the worst performing with 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:39.280 information technology, you know, And I think that's a testament 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:42.680 to how mission critical a lot of the you know, 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:46.439 software computers were back then for businesses. It's much more 0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.599 mission critical today, and so we expect actually tech to 0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:52.480 perform a lot better where it's gonna where it's gonna 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:56.080 show up in the form of pain or equity prices declining, 0:13:56.240 --> 0:14:00.360 or those um software programs that businesses use on an 0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:02.640 ancillary basis for things that are just not court of 0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:06.000 the business. So we do affect and we do expect 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:09.480 inflation to affect technology pretty dramatically. And in gross stocks 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:12.199 we've already seen it as they're down six pretty much 0:14:12.200 --> 0:14:14.560 across the board, and we're seeing in the private markets 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:17.959 as well. So by dramatically, what do you expect the 0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:20.760 impacts of that will be, you know, massive down rounds, 0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:25.640 inability to fundraise, more layoffs. Yeah, okay, so you hit 0:14:25.720 --> 0:14:28.360 on all the key factors. We saw this before the 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:31.320 dot com bust. There's a very strong anchoring bias in 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:34.640 the private markets for the last twelve years, and even 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:38.120 through the Great Financial Crisis, gross stocks really um never 0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:41.960 went down, and so it's gonna take time for prices 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:44.960 to adjust. We're seeing the early cracks, um, some of 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.480 which come in the form of last competition. We're also 0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:50.960 seeing converts, and what converts do is maintain an equity 0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:53.640 price but allow a company to extend its runway. What 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:57.120 follows converts is always down rounds UM the other thing 0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:59.720 that's coming, and we saw this today with carbon or 0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:02.520 lay offs. You know, we think in technology the layoffs 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:05.520 are actually gonna be shocking. They're going to be shocking, Emily, 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:08.880 and we've seen Meta and Facebook freeze hiring, the same 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:12.320 with Uber and it's this will be in the millions 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:14.560 of people in the next twelve of the twenty four months. 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:17.440 This is just the beginning. So you're comparing it to 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:19.920 the dot com bust, I mean, just how close the 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:22.000 comparison is there? I mean, do you think this could 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:28.640 take twelve years to play out? So unclear how long 0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:31.160 it will take. Our current view is that over the 0:15:31.160 --> 0:15:33.760 next twelve months it's going to be very rocky. Back 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:35.800 half the next year, things should firm up in the 0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:38.720 tech sector. The dot com bus, you know, like that 0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:42.080 was unique to that time period. Our time period UM 0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:45.200 more liquidity company business models are a little bit stronger. 0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:47.440 There's a better understanding of, you know, how to get 0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:51.080 to couch on profitability UM at the management team level, 0:15:51.080 --> 0:15:53.400 at the board level, and those discussions are happening right now. 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:57.280 So I suspect that the downturn will be a little 0:15:57.280 --> 0:16:00.560 bit more violent, but the recovery recovery will be faster 0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:02.880 and the next kind of twelve to twenty four months, 0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:06.000 you're gonna see some really interesting opportunities. But we've got 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:08.440 to flush through these down rounds, and companies with six 0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:10.400 or twelve months of capital left are really going to 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:14.080 struggle or raise raise money in this environment. So who 0:16:14.120 --> 0:16:17.600 makes it out of the gauntlet who doesn't? So those 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:21.080 with fortified balance sheets, those companies that got ahead of 0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:24.360 fortifying the balance sheet by trimming staff when necessary. It's 0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:27.000 always unfortunate to do lay offs, but it's it's part 0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:30.080 of what needs to happen during a downturn UM, and 0:16:30.120 --> 0:16:31.640 we're going to see the most pain is on the 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:37.040 larger businesses unicorns. The smaller companies that can adapt UM 0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:39.880 and extend runway three or more years should be okay. 0:16:40.320 --> 0:16:42.320 Those that have less than two years are are going 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:46.560 to struggle. UM. You know, more broadly, what's gonna work commerce, 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:50.440 commerce infrastructure, anything to do with e commerce, fintech. Although 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:53.000 we're seeing competition increase, it's been a blood back both 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:55.920 in the private and the public markets, and then transportation, 0:16:55.960 --> 0:17:01.160 lotistics and security. Wow, they're giving it to us straight. 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:07.359 Steve Sarasino, Activate Capital Founder, We'll be watching well. It 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:10.920 was built as the biggest change to Airbnb in a decade. 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:15.520 We have the biggest updates to our product in ten years. 0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:17.600 We've been thinking about this for a very long period 0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:19.399 of time. I can't say a lot, but I'll just 0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:21.480 give a couple of clues. Number one, there will be 0:17:21.560 --> 0:17:23.679 a whole new way to search on Airbnb, and this 0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:25.119 new way to search is going to be a new 0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:28.119 way to find really interesting homes. And then the second 0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:30.159 thing is we're gonna have a big step change to 0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:33.320 our service level and the kind of customer service we offer. 0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:38.800 Airbb has now revealed its big update, which includes a 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:41.200 new way to search for homes, split your trips between 0:17:41.240 --> 0:17:43.600 a couple of homes, and perhaps the biggest upgrade, more 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:47.600 protections while traveling. They are calling it air Cover, which 0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:50.040 includes a number of guarantees on your booking check in 0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:53.000 and what they're calling a get what You book to promise. 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:55.600 We will talk about all that and more with Airbnb 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:59.240 c O and co founder Brian Chesky tomorrow on the show, 0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:04.480 and coming up, we need a Name. We We Live, 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:11.200 We Dream, We Work? What didn't work at We Work? 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:13.920 And what lessons can tech companies learn from it As 0:18:13.960 --> 0:18:17.160 we navigate market turmoil and employers try to get workers 0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:19.640 back to the office. We're going to talk about all 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:23.000 that and more with a former We Work exec Next, 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:40.240 this is Bloomberg from Wall Street to Silicon Valley. Companies 0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:43.880 are competing fiercely for talent and to avoid losing more 0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:48.840 employees are tweaking in person requirements, even going fully remote. 0:18:48.920 --> 0:18:50.280 I want to talk about all this and more with 0:18:50.320 --> 0:18:53.840 Melissa Diameler, chief learning officer at the online teaching platform 0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:56.399 You to Me and former We Work executive, as she 0:18:56.520 --> 0:18:59.560 is out with a new book called Reculturing. Design your 0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:04.600 company culture to connect with strategy and purpose for lasting success. Melissa, 0:19:04.880 --> 0:19:08.719 the pandemic has totally reshaped the workplace, for better or 0:19:08.760 --> 0:19:16.120 for worse. How should companies re culture in this environment? Yeah? So, 0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:19.639 I The biggest question I always get right now is 0:19:19.720 --> 0:19:22.919 how do we bring our culture back? And that is 0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:27.920 the wrong question because it assumes that culture is the office. 0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:31.360 And while I think a lot of us enjoyed the 0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:34.040 ping pong tables and enjoyed the donuts and the free food, 0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:37.840 that is not what culture is. Culture is how work 0:19:37.920 --> 0:19:41.760 happens between people. And so I think the focus needs 0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:46.080 to be more on the values and the behaviors and 0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:49.560 and how we're showing up with each other through different 0:19:49.600 --> 0:19:54.080 ways of communicating, versus how we can get back people 0:19:54.119 --> 0:19:58.400 into an office. So let's talk about what companies are 0:19:58.440 --> 0:20:01.719 doing wrong. I mean you've companies, you know, changing their 0:20:01.720 --> 0:20:04.960 work from home policies, trying to you know, create these 0:20:04.960 --> 0:20:11.119 new perks for when people are in the office. Yeah, 0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:16.199 I mean I think that you know, it comes down to, uh, 0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:20.840 going a little deeper than just defining your values. I 0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:25.160 think companies stop when they have a list of values 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:27.919 on the wall or they threw them up on a website. 0:20:28.680 --> 0:20:31.399 I think the companies that are thinking through this and 0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:34.639 we're doing this at you to me, are really trying 0:20:34.680 --> 0:20:38.359 to codify what culture is. What would it what would 0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:42.239 a value for instance of teamwork, how would that show up? 0:20:42.720 --> 0:20:45.720 You know? Is that collaborating with each other effectively. Is 0:20:45.760 --> 0:20:49.440 that constructive debate? And how do we do that in 0:20:49.480 --> 0:20:52.240 a way that is in this hybrid environment? What are 0:20:52.280 --> 0:20:54.439 what are opportunities for us to come back together in 0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:57.520 an office If it's more of a brainstorm and opportunity 0:20:57.720 --> 0:21:01.520 versus you know, when can we do it remotely? So 0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:05.160 I think it's less about how we can get people 0:21:05.200 --> 0:21:08.000 back into the office or you know, how do we 0:21:08.119 --> 0:21:11.119 how do we make sure that that we're continuing to 0:21:11.640 --> 0:21:15.280 UM figure out ways to provide food. It's more about 0:21:15.320 --> 0:21:18.680 how to connect so quickly. What are some parallels you 0:21:18.680 --> 0:21:21.160 can draw from your experience that we work and what 0:21:21.160 --> 0:21:25.280 we're seeing right now in tech market term oil companies 0:21:25.320 --> 0:21:29.160 getting punished, you know, whether you're growing or not. Mm hmm. 0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:34.239 I you know, I think of organizations again as as 0:21:34.280 --> 0:21:36.920 a total system, and I think it we work and 0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:39.320 a lot of companies get this wrong. I think we 0:21:39.359 --> 0:21:42.760 think of culture as this is separate hr initiative versus 0:21:42.800 --> 0:21:47.200 continuing to look at how to reconnect it to your purpose, 0:21:47.680 --> 0:21:50.840 to your strategy and closing those gaps. So if you're 0:21:51.320 --> 0:21:55.359 if your mission is to um, you know, to to 0:21:55.480 --> 0:21:57.720 make a life not a living and then you invest 0:21:57.760 --> 0:22:02.560 in wave pools. There's a gap there, No, Yeah, all right, 0:22:03.359 --> 0:22:05.640 Well you can check out your new book out now. 0:22:05.680 --> 0:22:08.360 Melissa Diamelar, chief Learning Officer at You to Me, thanks 0:22:08.400 --> 0:22:18.400 so much for joining us. Welcome back to Bloomer Technology 0:22:18.440 --> 0:22:21.160 Imamily check in San Francisco. We've got some breaking news 0:22:21.200 --> 0:22:26.600 now headlines involving Twitter, Dal Jones reporting that federal regulators 0:22:26.600 --> 0:22:33.000 are investigating Elon Musk's disclosure of his sizeable steak in Twitter. 0:22:33.080 --> 0:22:35.600 The report saying that the SEC is probing his late 0:22:35.920 --> 0:22:39.080 submission of a public form that investors must file when 0:22:39.119 --> 0:22:41.800 they buy more than five percent of a company shares. 0:22:41.880 --> 0:22:45.439 As we know, he started amassing Twitter shares back in January, 0:22:45.520 --> 0:22:49.199 but didn't reveal his steak until April. We're gonna have 0:22:49.240 --> 0:22:54.800 more on that story as we get more details. Meantime, 0:22:54.800 --> 0:22:57.720 Google just unveils a series of upgrades to its search 0:22:57.760 --> 0:23:01.679 and map services, revealing more about the company's augmented reality ambitions, 0:23:01.720 --> 0:23:04.880