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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we got growing spect I'm saying it

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Speaker 3: to cash touchtop.

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Speaker 4: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 5: All right, this is the ultimate kabash wa man.

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Speaker 3: We are underway. What is up?

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Speaker 2: Everybody?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to The Action Network Podcast presented by BETMGM.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybon.

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Speaker 4: This is it your NFL Week one betting preview where

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Speaker 4: we will talk about our favorite sides, totals, teasers, underdog

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Speaker 4: money lines, and of course crack open. Our weekly Sunday

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Speaker 4: is six pack of against the spreadbats with the help

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Speaker 4: of my co hosts for our fifth consecutive NFL season,

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Speaker 4: The one and only Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, the

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Speaker 4: sharpest dude that I know, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 2: Glad to be here with you again, Bro, Bro, what's

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Speaker 2: going on?

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Speaker 3: It's good to be back. It's a big year for

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Speaker 3: both of us in the pot again. Last year but

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Speaker 3: I thought I had a good year. Yeah, amazing year.

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Speaker 3: But last year's last year. Who cares. Let's have another

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Speaker 3: big year, starting off with Week one can't wait to

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Speaker 3: sweat out full Sunday slates with all the listeners and

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Speaker 3: yell about horrible pass interference and roughing the passer, body

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Speaker 3: weight calls and all the ups and downs at an

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Speaker 3: NFL season brings. So yeah, I'm excited. Appreciate everyone back

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Speaker 3: for another season. Love all the listeners, Let's have another year.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I do want to take a moment just to

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Speaker 4: shout out all of the listeners. We feel the love

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Speaker 4: and we hope to reciprocate once again by giving you

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Speaker 4: guys and gals and everyone else some winners.

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Speaker 3: And if you're listening on YouTube, subscribe like those things

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Speaker 3: really help us out, especially early in the year.

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Speaker 4: And speaking of YouTube, as we kick off this Thursday

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Speaker 4: night football preview, our pods this year will be on

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Speaker 4: YouTube in full this year, so be sure to check

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Speaker 4: the Action Network YouTube channel.

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Speaker 2: I know a lot of people have been asking for that.

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Speaker 3: And Sunday six, this six pack will be during a

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Speaker 3: Happy Hour a new show between six and seven on

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Speaker 3: YouTube if you want to get it early Wednesday Night's

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Speaker 3: twelve or six pack. That six pack and the rest

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Speaker 3: going through all the other games, our totals, teasers, moneyline, dogs,

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Speaker 3: et cetera, et cetera. All that will be out late

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Speaker 3: night Wednesdays as usual.

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Speaker 2: Week one Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 4: Kansas City Detroit, great matchup. We have the Chiefs down

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Speaker 4: to a four and a half point favorite. The total

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Speaker 4: is fifty two and a half and right off the

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Speaker 4: bats stuck. I want to get your opinion on this

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Speaker 4: line move, because about twenty four hours ago the line

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Speaker 4: was Chiefs by six and a half and the total

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Speaker 4: was fifty four and a half.

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Speaker 2: So we've seen a two point drop. With the news

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Speaker 2: of Travis Kelcey hyper.

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Speaker 4: Extending his knee likely to miss this game.

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Speaker 3: One part of me says Buck, I wouldn't even be

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Speaker 3: shocked that Kelsey just does end up playing.

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Speaker 4: Yep.

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Speaker 3: This is the guy that over the past decade he's

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Speaker 3: only missed three games. They rested him twice in like

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Speaker 3: this Regio season finale, and then he had to sit

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Speaker 3: because of COVID. But I'm assuming if he was allowed,

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Speaker 3: he would probably would have suited up. So we'll see

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Speaker 3: if he can give it a go. Even if he's limited,

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Speaker 3: He's just would be so important just in the red zone, right,

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Speaker 3: Like you get down towards the red zone is not

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Speaker 3: at full speed, So we'll say maybe the Chiefs are

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Speaker 3: going to take it cautious though it is the beginning

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Speaker 3: of the season. Also, this line move, I think callincide

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Speaker 3: with the fact that, like there's just been no progress

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Speaker 3: with Chris Jones, and Chris Jones is one of the

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Speaker 3: few defenders that I think actually matters to the spread.

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Speaker 3: I mean, maybe it's a half point, but he's so

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Speaker 3: dominant and this is a team that's star driven, right,

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Speaker 3: I mean, you have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelcey, you have

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Speaker 3: on the defensive side of the ball, it's Chris Jones.

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Speaker 3: One of the best defenders and interior pass rushers really

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Speaker 3: brush him from all over in the NFL. And why

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Speaker 3: he's also even more crucial is that the drop off

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Speaker 3: to his backup is really really big. And then in

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Speaker 3: this particular, you're going up against a really good offensive

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Speaker 3: line that without Jones should be able to control the

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Speaker 3: line of scrimmage, they should be able to consistently move

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Speaker 3: the ball. We'll see if Spagnol I think that some

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Speaker 3: of the keys of this game, Jones is worth something

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Speaker 3: to the spread small, and so is Kelsey. So I

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Speaker 3: had this, you know, projected it between six and six

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Speaker 3: and a half right around there, but after adjusting them

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Speaker 3: close to five. So if you got it before the move, great,

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Speaker 3: I'm not showing any value now. And I've conflicted on

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Speaker 3: how this is going to play out, like I are

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Speaker 3: the lines going to go more run heavy and they

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Speaker 3: could have success do and then just move up and

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Speaker 3: down the field. Then it's going to come down to

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Speaker 3: the does golf make a mistake? Can they can the

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Speaker 3: execute in the red zone because one of the keys

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Speaker 3: to the game is can Spagnola confuse golf into a

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Speaker 3: couple of mistakes and then just bend but don't break

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Speaker 3: in the red zone. If it keeps going any lower,

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Speaker 3: I would consider the Chiefs, but it feels like with

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Speaker 3: some of their key losses here, if they're up ten late,

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Speaker 3: this game screams back door. So no interest from me. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I will say shout out to Little Plug for the

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Speaker 3: Action Network AAP and our friend and colleague Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 3: You know, I'm not really a prop better, but I

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Speaker 3: always bet the opening Thursday night football game prop that

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Speaker 3: he puts out, So keep an eye on the app,

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Speaker 3: I'll be putting that in as well, so I will

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Speaker 3: have some action on this game, but definitely from a

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Speaker 3: side or total perspective pre game.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, did bet the Detroit Lions way early in the

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Speaker 4: offseason at plus seven and then I hit it at

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Speaker 4: plus six again because and this is why we do

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Speaker 4: encourage people to download the app as free is because

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Speaker 4: of things like this. I was able to look in

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Speaker 4: the app and all the books are still showing six.

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Speaker 4: The news of Kelsey injury had been announced, but all

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Speaker 4: the books, you know, had come down to half a point.

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Speaker 4: But I saw at one book it was down to

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Speaker 4: five and a half, and I'm like, oh, no, okay,

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Speaker 4: so that's what we're doing. Like if we're going through

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Speaker 4: the key number six, we're just going and sure enough,

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Speaker 4: you know, as we sit here today, it's at four

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Speaker 4: and a half. So that's kind of one of the

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Speaker 4: keys to betting. You get closing line value. And you know,

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Speaker 4: for all the new betters out there, that is one

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Speaker 4: of the ways that you should be essentially judging your results,

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Speaker 4: you know, in turn, not just by did you cover

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Speaker 4: or did you not cover, but what line did you

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Speaker 4: bet versus the closing line.

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Speaker 3: If you're just starting out our recreational better, the easiest

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Speaker 3: thing you can do to improve your ROI is get

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Speaker 3: the best number that's out there, which you need to

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Speaker 3: have multiple outs for and you can check the action

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Speaker 3: number gap to see which books are where. But that

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Speaker 3: is the easiest thing you can do. Don't just settle

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Speaker 3: and have one book because it's easy. Those half points,

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Speaker 3: they will add up over time. Over time, when you

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Speaker 3: start getting used to looking at the market things like that,

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Speaker 3: then you can start to pick up and you know,

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Speaker 3: get gathered more intuition and reads on the market, and

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Speaker 3: get even better when it comes to CLV. But at

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Speaker 3: least just get the best number that's out there.

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Speaker 4: If you're picking a side, I'm still going lines. Even

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Speaker 4: at the four and a half, I think I don't

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Speaker 4: think the Kelsey News is worth two points, and I

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Speaker 4: don't think they were adjusting for Jones, because if they were,

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Speaker 4: they wouldn't have the total wouldn't have also come down

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Speaker 4: exactly the same amount. We always give a lot of

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Speaker 4: credit to Andy Reid for being able to prepare with

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Speaker 4: extra time, and that's shown in terms of the chiefs performance.

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Speaker 4: In week one, they put out massive point totals. As

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Speaker 4: you mentioned, massive yardage in Week ones, especially with my homes,

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Speaker 4: So this.

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Speaker 2: Is short notice.

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Speaker 4: If Kelsey's gonna miss it, even if he's limited, whatever decoy,

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Speaker 4: they're gonna have to change things up on the fly.

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Speaker 2: Here. It's a Thursday game, so that could have some effect.

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Speaker 4: But that being said, I still would go plus four

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Speaker 4: and a half with the Lions because I always go

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Speaker 4: back to that trend for the Chiefs where they have

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Speaker 4: just really struggled to cover numbers bigger than a field goal.

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Speaker 4: When you go back to November of twenty twenty, the

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Speaker 4: Chiefs are just ten and twenty six against the spread

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Speaker 4: in games where they are favored by more than a

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Speaker 4: field goal, and they don't lose many of them. But

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Speaker 4: it's the NFL. A lot of these things are gonna

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Speaker 4: be a lot tighter than you expect. The Lions are

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Speaker 4: very good team. They're top five in offense last year DVOA.

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Speaker 2: Again.

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Speaker 4: You know the Chiefs eight and oh over in their

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Speaker 4: last eight Week one games under Andy Reid. That extends

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Speaker 4: beyond just Patrick Mahomes starting. The totals in these games

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Speaker 4: are absurd sixty five points last year, sixty nine in

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Speaker 4: twenty seventeen. That was nice. You have to go all

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Speaker 4: the way back to twenty fifteen. You got a forty seven.

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Speaker 4: A twenty seven to twenty Chiefs victory was Alex Smith.

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Speaker 4: So still lean Lions even at the four and a half.

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Speaker 4: Anything over a field goal, weave the over because I

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Speaker 4: still would have this total at fifty four and a half.

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Speaker 2: The Lions are a live dog.

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Speaker 4: No Chris Jones and if there's no Travis Kelce, those

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Speaker 4: are outside of Mahomes, probably the two most key players

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Speaker 4: on the entire Chiefs roster. So they have a very

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Speaker 4: good chance of pulling the week one upsta and that's

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Speaker 4: not usually something I would say going against an Andy

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Speaker 4: Reid coach team.

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Speaker 2: This is a live dog situation.

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Speaker 5: Hello Detroit.

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Speaker 3: One another reason why the Chiefs to win these games

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Speaker 3: and don't covers. They could be in a shootout, not

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Speaker 3: get any stops. Then you have Mahmes with the ball

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Speaker 3: down four late, and you have if a lot of conference,

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Speaker 3: he's gonna get on score.

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Speaker 2: I's on one about three exactly.

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Speaker 4: Let's let's get into what we've been waiting all off

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Speaker 4: season for year five, the Action Network podcast. Let's Crack open.

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Speaker 4: The very first Sunday six Pack of two thousand and

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Speaker 4: twenty three.

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Speaker 1: Thursday for action, Let's crack open the Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 1: all right.

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Speaker 4: So for those new to the pod, I'll just quickly

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Speaker 4: explain what we do here. We have a draft of

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Speaker 4: our top six thread bets for Sunday. We don't include

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Speaker 4: the Monday night game or the Thursday game, so just

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Speaker 4: all the Sunday games. So that's six bets a week,

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Speaker 4: three each. We alternate who goes first. Two points for

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Speaker 4: each of our top two picks, and then our third

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Speaker 4: is worth a single point. We also get a point

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Speaker 4: if we hit our total, which will be in the

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Speaker 4: next segment. You know where I'm going first. I've been

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Speaker 4: high on this team all off season. Feels like I've

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Speaker 4: been hirghing this team for years now, but this is

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Speaker 4: the first time I'm really getting to exploit it because

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Speaker 4: the market has finally cooled off on them and cooled

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Speaker 4: off too much. And that is why for the first

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Speaker 4: pick of the Week one, twenty twenty three Sunday six Pack,

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Speaker 4: I'm going with the Tennessee Titans plus three at the

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Speaker 4: New Orleans Saints. I'll start it off by saying, if

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Speaker 4: you don't know Mike Vrabel's work to get familiar because

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Speaker 4: he will make you a lot of money as a

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Speaker 4: better Not only is Mike Vrabel twenty three fifteen and

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Speaker 4: one sixty one percent against the spread as an underdog.

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Speaker 4: Not only is Mike Vrabel twenty two nine and one

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Speaker 4: seventy one percent against the spread as an underdog by

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Speaker 4: a field goal or more, Mike Vrabel has a winning

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Speaker 4: record straight up as an underdog. Twenty and nineteen fifty

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Speaker 4: one percent are the Titans in games they have been

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Speaker 4: an underdog since Vrabel took over as the head coach.

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Speaker 4: One of my favorite coaches to back and a perfect

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Speaker 4: situation because the Titans finished down seven last year, a

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Speaker 4: lot of recency buys well, just for the people that

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Speaker 4: are kind of queasy about that and seven finish.

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Speaker 2: Let's let's break this down.

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Speaker 4: First of all, from a macro perspective, Raybell was four

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Speaker 4: and oh over season one win totals. Entering last year,

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Speaker 4: the Titans win total was nine and a half. They

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Speaker 4: start seven and three.

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Speaker 3: As the raigning number one seed and as the raining.

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Speaker 4: Number one seed in a year where they lost Arthur Smith,

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Speaker 4: their offensive coordinator, where Derrick Henry missed nine games and

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Speaker 4: AJ Brown missed four in part in most of a

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Speaker 4: fifth number one seed, twelve wins, start seven to three

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Speaker 4: last year. Okay, they become the most injured team in football,

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Speaker 4: and they just whiffed at their backup quarterback. You know,

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Speaker 4: miliek Willis, a lot of people thought he wasn't ready,

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Speaker 4: and he was not. They got caught up and they

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Speaker 4: lost games they shouldn't have lost. They had a game

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Speaker 4: where he threw for under one hundred yards against the

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Speaker 4: Texans and they lost but four to one score losses

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Speaker 4: in that seven game losing streak and a fifth game

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Speaker 4: that they punted completely and rested their roster and quarterback

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Speaker 4: injuries and yeah, mostly just the games lost. Horrible injury luck.

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Speaker 4: This team is pretty much the same old Titans.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 4: I'll say this, Hopkins gives them the best receiver they've

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Speaker 4: had since AJ Brown. The defense is healthy, members still

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Speaker 4: the top run defense by DVOA last year. Even with

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Speaker 4: all the injuries. Expect the defense to be good. Everyone's

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Speaker 4: concerned about the offensive line, rightfully, so I'm concerned about

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Speaker 4: right tackle. Left tackle. I think Dillard can hold up.

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Speaker 4: He's allowed one sack on his last two hundred and

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Speaker 4: sixty one pass blocking snaps over his last two years

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Speaker 4: in Phillies. Really struggled in his first action, as you

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Speaker 4: know in twenty twenties, drafted in twenty nineteen. Not as

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Speaker 4: confident in the right tackle. But every team is going

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Speaker 4: to have a blemish a concern. But this is strong

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Speaker 4: in all three levels of the defense. Henry's still chugging along,

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Speaker 4: still here early in the season, so showed no signs

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Speaker 4: of wearing down last year. This is not an zero

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Speaker 4: to seven roster. This is not a seven to ten roster.

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Speaker 4: Do Nasally won his Titan team. Now the Saints, I

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Speaker 4: think they're a little bit overvalued in the market because

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Speaker 4: they're in a weak division and they're kind of that

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Speaker 4: default team. Derek Carr is giving people confidence a little

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Speaker 4: bit skeptical. Carr his four worst seasons as a pro

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Speaker 4: were the four years which he's been in year one

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Speaker 4: of a new offensive coordinator system. Any efficiency metric you

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Speaker 4: could think of, Carr's worst four years are in year

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Speaker 4: one of a new system. So it's not just gonna

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Speaker 4: be a seamless transition. I don't even know if Carr

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Speaker 4: is gonna be able to replicate the numbers Andy Dalton

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Speaker 4: put up last year.

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Speaker 2: You know Andy Dalton. Everyone's like, oh.

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Speaker 4: Man, the Saint is just that terrible quarterback play last

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Speaker 4: year Jamis Winston and taste them and it's like nah,

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Speaker 4: Andy Dalton started fourteen games and he was pretty solid.

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Speaker 4: His numbers last year better than any of Derek Carr's

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Speaker 4: numbers in year one of a new system. Derek Carr

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Speaker 4: twenty two and forty in those years in a new system,

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Speaker 4: just above five hundred in all other years. So I

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Speaker 4: do think there could be some growing pains. Dennis Allen

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Speaker 4: has a twenty eight percent career winning percentage as a

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Speaker 4: head coach, forty percent against the spread at twenty one

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Speaker 4: thirty one and one, so the complete anti Vrabel. I

303
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Speaker 4: do not trust the Saints here. I think this. I

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Speaker 4: think the Titans are a better team. You know, a

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Speaker 4: lot of people look at the Saints. Saints D got weakend.

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Speaker 4: Ryan Nielsen, their D line coach, went to Atlanta. Kaiden

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Speaker 4: Nellis rate gave a great play at linebacker last year,

308
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Speaker 4: went to Atlanta. Anyamada went to Atlanta. Jordan the Mario

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Speaker 4: Davis Older got to slow down some time, you know,

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Speaker 4: Tyron Matthew.

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Speaker 2: Like they're relying on a lot of older guys.

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Speaker 4: Taysom Hill even is those mid thirties, wouldn't be surprised

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Speaker 4: at all if the Titans win this game by even

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Speaker 4: more than one score Loved plus three. I make this

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Speaker 4: number about minus one and a half, and that's mostly

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Speaker 4: due to home field.

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Speaker 2: Advantage, you know, all things being equal, I.

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Speaker 4: Have the Titans and Saints pretty much neck and neck,

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Speaker 4: and the Titans probably a little bit better just because

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Speaker 4: I think they have an intangible edge. With rabel a

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Speaker 4: head coach, that's a mismatch Verbel against Dennis Allen.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, starting coaching Titans, I agree coaching mismatch here.

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Speaker 3: Raybel at another studies fourteen six and one against the

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Speaker 3: spread as a road underdog of three or more points,

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Speaker 3: that's seventy percent covered by almost five points per game.

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Speaker 3: This Tennessee front can generate pressure up the middle, and

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Speaker 3: that's really how you throw a car off. And I

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Speaker 3: think that'll ultimately the difference. You pick the Titans for

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Speaker 3: your Sunday six pack. It would have been one of

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Speaker 3: my picks. So I was disappointed to see a picckot,

331
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Speaker 3: But it's all about for the neat positive, the show,

332
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,480
Speaker 3: So I completely agree here, all right, So for my

333
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Speaker 3: first pick of the twenty twenty three Sunday six pack,

334
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Speaker 3: in the second overall, I'm going with the Tampa Bay

335
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Speaker 3: Bucks plus six at the Minnesota Vikings. Why not start

336
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Speaker 3: the twenty twenty three Sunday six pack off with Baker Mayfield.

337
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,680
Speaker 3: I'm known for starting off with smugly picks. This one

338
00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:05,960
Speaker 3: might be up there for the early weeks this season.

339
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Speaker 3: I just think this number is a bit too high. Look,

340
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Speaker 3: everyone knows by now the Vikings were fraudulent last year,

341
00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,520
Speaker 3: fraudulent thirteen wins, They won every one possession game, got

342
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Speaker 3: every late bounce, and then they come into this year

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Speaker 3: with I think a weaker roster, right, I think they're

344
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,480
Speaker 3: quietly rebuilding. They shedded a lot of the veterans that

345
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,520
Speaker 3: they have, which I think were smart moves overall, but

346
00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:28,480
Speaker 3: they're definitely less talented that defense. I have a lot

347
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:30,840
Speaker 3: of respect for Brian Flores, but there's just not a

348
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Speaker 3: lot of talent there and what Flora is going to

349
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,520
Speaker 3: have to do to make up for that? And if

350
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:41,280
Speaker 3: you just go by his historical track record, he's gonna

351
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Speaker 3: blitz a lot. And contrary to popular belief that's not

352
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Speaker 3: necessarily how you beat Baker Mayfield. Mayfield actually has a

353
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Speaker 3: better touchdown interception ratio in his career against the Blitz

354
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Speaker 3: than not. How you beat Baker Mayfield to just get

355
00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,800
Speaker 3: natural pressure and have defensive backs and he's going to

356
00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,600
Speaker 3: make mistakes. I don't think this defense is capable of

357
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:04,320
Speaker 3: doing that and taking advantage of a Bucks offensive line

358
00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:06,280
Speaker 3: that lost some key pieces. They're moving works to the

359
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,320
Speaker 3: left side. It is a concern for Tampa moving forward,

360
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:13,720
Speaker 3: but I'm not that concerned this for this particular matchup.

361
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:17,439
Speaker 3: I also really like the offensive coordinator higher. There was

362
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:21,160
Speaker 3: just some low hanging fruit fixes for this Tampa Bay offense,

363
00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 3: especially on early downs. Mayfield has some familiarity with this

364
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,920
Speaker 3: scheme as well, has some good receivers that should be

365
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 3: able to take advantage of really, really poor and vulnerable

366
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:36,640
Speaker 3: Viking secondary. This could turn into a sneaky shootout. Lean

367
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:38,920
Speaker 3: a little bit to the over, but the Tampa is

368
00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:42,000
Speaker 3: the better defense here and they can keep up with

369
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:45,480
Speaker 3: Minnesota if need be so. I like taking the six

370
00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 3: points here for what it's worth. Over the past twenty

371
00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:52,080
Speaker 3: five years, six plus point dogs in Week one covered

372
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:56,040
Speaker 3: at about a sixty percent clip Kirk Cousins. Everyone talks

373
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 3: about what time he's playing. As a favorite of greater

374
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,400
Speaker 3: than four points, He's eleven eighteen and one against the spread.

375
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:05,120
Speaker 3: That's thirty eight percent. That includes seven fifteen and one

376
00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 3: thirty one point eight percent against the spread at home

377
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 3: as a favorite of more than four points. I think

378
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,639
Speaker 3: this is too many points. I think Tampa Bay is

379
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,400
Speaker 3: being slept on a little bit too much, and this

380
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 3: is a pretty good matchup for them all things considered,

381
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,560
Speaker 3: I think this is close. Would not be shocked to

382
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 3: see the Bucks pull off the outright upset. So give

383
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 3: me Tampa Bay plus six as my first pick.

384
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 2: Love it.

385
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 4: Another one of my look ahead picks. Would have picked

386
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,400
Speaker 4: this one if you hadn't, so I guess we're even there.

387
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,600
Speaker 4: Not really a matchup that scares you for Mayfield, and

388
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 4: the weakness of that Vican team is the cornerback position.

389
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:46,560
Speaker 4: So Evans and Godwin, as long as they're healthy, I

390
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:48,679
Speaker 4: should be able to do some damaging and keep the.

391
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:49,400
Speaker 2: Bucks in this game.

392
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:54,159
Speaker 4: For my second pick and the third overall of the

393
00:20:55,520 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 4: week one Sunday six pack, I'm going with who Man

394
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,920
Speaker 4: the Cleveland Browns plus two and a half essentially just

395
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 4: bet Oh yeah, I hateed it against Joe Burrow who

396
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:16,119
Speaker 4: does nothing but cover, nothing but cover. But this is

397
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 4: what this is what we gotta do. Take the value

398
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,480
Speaker 4: on the board. When I look at this Cleveland team,

399
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:26,359
Speaker 4: I don't see that much discrepancy between the talent on

400
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:30,120
Speaker 4: the Cleveland Browns and the talent on the Cincinnati Bengals.

401
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,120
Speaker 4: I think the Browns did a lot of good things

402
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:39,720
Speaker 4: in this offseason to put them in position to compete

403
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:41,199
Speaker 4: in what is going to be a gauntlet of an

404
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 4: ASC and especially ASC North. You got Zadarius Smith, Miles Garrett, Dalvin, Tomlinson.

405
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 4: Big addition, they needed.

406
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 3: To help that run defense which was very leaky.

407
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 4: Yep, expect this pass rush to be improved, Expect the

408
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 4: run defense to be improved for Cleveland and Jim Schwartz,

409
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 4: the defensive coordinator, He's changing up the whole scheme and

410
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 4: there's a lot of talent here all over the cornerbacks.

411
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 2: Now.

412
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:12,160
Speaker 4: The one thing to watch for Denzel Ward concussion protocol.

413
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 2: That would be a blow.

414
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 4: Not enough for me to get off the Browns as

415
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 4: a two point two and a half point home as

416
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 4: a home dog. Really period in the spot. But that

417
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,400
Speaker 4: is concerning. That would knock a couple of tenths off

418
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 4: of my projection. I think I have it Bengals favored

419
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 4: by about a half half point or point something like that.

420
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 4: But you got talent and every level his defense. One

421
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 4: Thornhill at safety, you got Delpit, you got Emerson, you

422
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 4: got a Newsomit Corner mentioned Garrett, you know all these guys.

423
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:49,120
Speaker 4: So one of the big things with Schwartz, though, he's

424
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 4: allowing the talent to play under Joe Woods, the previous

425
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,400
Speaker 4: defensive coordinator, there was a lot of read and react

426
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 4: and just you know, guys just had I think more

427
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:02,439
Speaker 4: than I think they should have out there, and it

428
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 4: led to some bad results and players didn't like it,

429
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 4: and you could just see it, you know, and and

430
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,439
Speaker 4: just they just didn't have enough bodies on the interior

431
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 4: against the run. So now all these things have been rectified,

432
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 4: and how do you beat Joe Burrow kind of talk

433
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 4: about this, I mean, this will be a recurring theme.

434
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 2: And pressure.

435
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 4: I would say this, you're a new better, casual better,

436
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 4: and you want a thing to kind of pay attention

437
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:27,719
Speaker 4: to to get an edge focus on pressure, which quarterbacks

438
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,199
Speaker 4: Every quarterback is gonna be worse under pressure. But you

439
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 4: know which offensive lines are gonna give it up, which

440
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 4: schemes are gonna be able to generate it, Who's gonna

441
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,639
Speaker 4: be able to do it with just four? You know,

442
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 4: who's gonna have to bring blitzers, who can hold up

443
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:40,919
Speaker 4: on the back end, all those kinds of things. That

444
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,680
Speaker 4: is one of the biggest edges that's really difficult to quantify,

445
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 4: and a lot of times that stuck you and I

446
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 4: end up talking about And in this case, I think

447
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:54,400
Speaker 4: the Browns can get home with four. Sports is aggressive,

448
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 4: but I think he knows you know, he's not stupid.

449
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,120
Speaker 4: He's not gonna just fall out, blitz ber. You're gonna

450
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 4: be able to get home. And that's how you get

451
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 4: to borrow.

452
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 3: He takes Sattakes had success in the past, Yeah, exactly.

453
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 4: And that was with a much less talented defensive roster

454
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 4: and a much I would say worse defensive coordinator. So

455
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,479
Speaker 4: that is essentially why I like the Browns. Obviously, Burrow

456
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,199
Speaker 4: gives them the edge at quarterback, but you know, I

457
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 4: don't think Deshaun Watson's gonna have to do anything specially.

458
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 4: I don't think he's gonna have to put up thirty

459
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 4: five forty points because I think this is gonna be

460
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 4: a defensive game.

461
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 2: It's a divisional game, and Week one divisional.

462
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 4: Underdogs that missed the playoffs the year before, you know,

463
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 4: tend to be the market tends to undervalue teams like

464
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 4: that fifty five, twenty three and two seventy one percent

465
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 4: against the spread or Week one divisional dogs that missed

466
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,879
Speaker 4: the playoffs last year. Since five, and in the first

467
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:56,360
Speaker 4: three weeks of the season, divisional home dogs absolutely crushed

468
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 4: sixty four percent against the spread sixty thirty four and

469
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 4: two since twow thousand and five, according to our Action

470
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 4: Labs data. So I am going with Cleveland plus two

471
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 4: and a half.

472
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love the Browns. This is my second pick

473
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 3: that I had. She stole another one from me. It's

474
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 3: also where then Joe Burrow might struggle out of the

475
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 3: gates right. For the third straight year he's dealt with

476
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 3: an issue, whether it was an appendix or knee or

477
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 3: CAF third straight year he's missed time leading up to

478
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 3: the season. The past two seasons, they've gone one in

479
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 3: three over the first two games, and he hasn't been

480
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 3: that good. I think it's the same amount of touchdowns

481
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 3: interceptions they lost to. Mitch Trubisky, Andy Dalton and Cooper

482
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:39,679
Speaker 3: Rush were the three losses that Burrow suffered in the

483
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:44,120
Speaker 3: first two games. And look who they faced last year.

484
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 3: Here are the quarterbacks they faced during the thirteen win season.

485
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 3: Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush, Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton,

486
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 3: Marcus Mariota, Jacobe Brissette, PJ Walker, Anthony Brown. None of

487
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 3: those quarterbacks a bunch of or aren't even in the

488
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 3: league anymore our starters this year. They also faced Watson

489
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,119
Speaker 3: on his second game back. You can face a backup

490
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 3: in the playoffs when they and again they should have

491
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 3: lost against Tyler Huntley and the Ravens. So and this

492
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 3: is a team that look has to replace three defensive

493
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 3: back starters and they have another one to come back

494
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,360
Speaker 3: from an injury. It hasn't gotten much run of late,

495
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 3: so maybe it gets to three, which I would love

496
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 3: so more harm in locking that in now if you're listening,

497
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,120
Speaker 3: waits to or some news and see if this gets

498
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 3: to three. But I gray love the Browns.

499
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 4: The NFL is back, so get in on the action

500
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:35,359
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504
00:26:55,359 --> 00:27:00,479
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505
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506
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507
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508
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509
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510
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,320
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511
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:25,840
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512
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 4: Gambling Problem Call one eight hundred Next Step in Arizona

513
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,800
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514
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:38,160
Speaker 4: in Colorado, DC, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada, Wyoming, or Virginia. One

515
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:42,119
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516
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:46,800
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517
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 4: Maryland New Jersey or West Virginia one eight hundred bets

518
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 4: off in Iowa one eight hundred and nine eight one

519
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:58,360
Speaker 4: two three. In Puerto Rico, call eight seven seven.

520
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 2: Eight hope and Why, or text hope and Why.

521
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 4: In New York caller text the Tennessee Redline at eight

522
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 4: hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine, or call

523
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 4: eight seven seven seven nine.

524
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 2: Six nine six in Mississippi.

525
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,160
Speaker 4: In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns about your

526
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:20,119
Speaker 4: gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario

527
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 4: at one eight sixty six five three one two six

528
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 4: zero zero to speak to an advisor free of charge.

529
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 4: Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, and Utah, and

530
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 4: other states where prohibited. Promotional offers not available in Nevada

531
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 4: and New York.

532
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 3: For my second pick in the fourth overall of the

533
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 3: week one Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Green

534
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 3: Bay Packers plus one. As always, make sure shop around

535
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 3: so you can find a plus one and a half

536
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 3: out there. I talked about this with you all off season.

537
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 3: I'm way higher on the Packers than the market, and

538
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 3: I'm lower on the Bears. Still not sold on Justin

539
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 3: Fields and his accuracy. He could prove it like Jalen

540
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 3: Hurts did, but I need to see it. I like

541
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 3: what I've seen from Love so far, although in limited

542
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 3: sample size. But this Packers team, I think just has

543
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 3: a significantly better roster, better defense, way better offensive line,

544
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 3: especially when you consider all of the juggling that Chicago

545
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 3: has to do with some of the injuries that they've

546
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 3: suffered and have. You know, even some guys that are

547
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 3: going to play have been banged up during camp. This

548
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 3: is a historically bad defense last year, historically bad offensive line.

549
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 3: I don't think they've really fixed those issues. You know,

550
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 3: maybe in the long term. The offensive line, I think

551
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 3: it's going to be a little bit better. Hey, you

552
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 3: went out and splashed with two linebackers. It's the least

553
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 3: important position on a defense. I think the Packers can

554
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 3: have some success here moving the ball. Last year when

555
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 3: they swept the Bears by the way they leaned on

556
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 3: their ground game, I mean they just ran all over

557
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 3: the Bears. They can do that again. The Bears aren't

558
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,719
Speaker 3: really going to generate much pressure. That's a really welcome

559
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 3: environment for a young quarterback making his second career start

560
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 3: because he did cover his underdog in Kansas City. For

561
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 3: what it's worth, Matt laflores thirteen and four against the

562
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 3: spread seventy six and a half percent as an underdog.

563
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 3: I just think the Packers are a better roster. I

564
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 3: trust the defense, I trust their offensive line, and I

565
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 3: think the Bears, but these offensive line iss she's headed

566
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 3: into this game are in trouble. I think Green Bak.

567
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 3: It's the road wind, the kickoff the season, Go Pack Go.

568
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 3: I know you disagree with this one. We're finally going

569
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 3: some disagreement.

570
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 4: I don't disagree as much as you probably think I do.

571
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 4: I think this game is largely a toss up. I'm

572
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:41,719
Speaker 4: not down on the Bears at a court where I'm

573
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 4: ready to just say they're just gonna boil a Week.

574
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 2: One at home.

575
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 4: But I do have something else on this game, so

576
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 4: I'll table this discussion.

577
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 2: But I don't hate to pick.

578
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 4: You know, a divisional dog Week one, pretty evenly matched teams,

579
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 4: and you know everyone reminder, Wednesday practice three ports do

580
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 4: not matter. And that's we're talking about a Thursday game.

581
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 4: Nothing Wednesday practice supports. It's just got every team goes

582
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 4: about a different Some guys just like the rest guys.

583
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 2: Some guys.

584
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 4: Just put everyone on to make sure they're compliant, So

585
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 4: don't get caught up in those. Friday is the real

586
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 4: important day. That's when you're gonna start to see what's

587
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 4: going on and what's going down. So I'm just saying

588
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 4: that because I know Christian Watson, Romeo Dobs, the Packers'

589
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 4: top two receivers are on.

590
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 2: The injury report on Wednesday and they're not practicing. Oh

591
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 2: my god, doesn't matter.

592
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 3: Green Bay lashers sixty seven. If you exclude these sixty

593
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 3: seven rushes for three hundred and eighty one yards in

594
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 3: two meetings with Chicago, that's five point seven yards per

595
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 3: carry the Chargers, who were the worst run defense in

596
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 3: the NFL, and yards per rushall out, we're at five

597
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 3: point four. Talked about field struggles. He really struggled against

598
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 3: the Packers. He had zero touchdowns and three interceptions in

599
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 3: those two meetings. In comparison, he had seventeen touchdowns to

600
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 3: eight interceptions and the other thirteen games played. But I

601
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 3: think Green Bay gets it done on the road.

602
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 2: I mean, you're.

603
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 4: Telling me that the Packers have this big edge on

604
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 4: on the ground, and are you're complaining to me that

605
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 4: the Bears spend money on the linebackers. I mean it's

606
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 4: like one of you know, like there's got to be

607
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 4: a little bit of meeting in the middle. Like the

608
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 4: linebackers should help that run defense at we at the.

609
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 3: Very the Bears run de un should be a little better.

610
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:34,959
Speaker 3: But I don't think they're going to completely shut down

611
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 3: the Packers ground game here. I'd also don't think the

612
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 3: Bears are gonna be able to generate pressure. They kindly

613
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 3: bring up those two points because those are two really

614
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 3: important crutches on the road for a very young quarterback

615
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 3: pieces that they have to shuffle around. I mean, whenever

616
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 3: you're trading for Dan Feenie, I know it's probably some depth.

617
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 3: It's not in great shape where you're going next.

618
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, not yet.

619
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 4: I don't want to see Cody White here in the

620
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 4: middle of my interial line.

621
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 2: I'm not even going to disagree with there.

622
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 4: But I am going to close out the six pack

623
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 4: for myself with my third pick, the fifth overall of

624
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 4: the week one Sunday six pack, and let's get super

625
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 4: ugly here. This is a Action Network Sunday six pack

626
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 4: kind of staple kind of pick because it's ugly. But

627
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 4: I think the numbers too large, and that is the

628
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 4: Houston Texans plus ten at bet MGM at the Baltimore Ravens.

629
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 4: I know the Ravens have been very good for the

630
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 4: most part in Week one under Harbor. They are eleven

631
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 4: and four against the spread, So let's get that out

632
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 4: of the way now. And I still think this number

633
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 4: is too big. It's hard to cover ten points in

634
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 4: the NFL because now you're talking about it a touchdown,

635
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 4: a field.

636
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 2: Goal, and then another score.

637
00:33:57,280 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 4: Really, this is about me just wanting to get ahead

638
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 4: of the fact that I think the market is a

639
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 4: little too well on the Texans. We both believe the

640
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 4: Colts are the worst team than the Texans, and that

641
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 4: the market doesn't seem to agree that. People might not

642
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:13,839
Speaker 4: realize that the Texans are no longer tanking. Whether they

643
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 4: were right about Stroud or not. They went ahead and

644
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 4: then they packaged their first round pick next year for

645
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 4: Will Anderson, an edge rusher. So they're trying to do

646
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 4: a rebuild rather than a tank, and they're trying to

647
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 4: do like a speeded up rebuild like they want to

648
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 4: be more competitive, is what I'm getting at. You know,

649
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 4: they signed Jimmy Warden safety, They signed Sheldon Rankins on

650
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 4: the D line. You look at this Texans roster up

651
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 4: and down, I would say Laramie Tunseel is probably.

652
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 2: The only elite player. But compared to years.

653
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 4: Past, I'm not really seeing a lot of starters anyway

654
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 4: for the Texas that I'm like, oh my god.

655
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 2: This guy's completely terrible. This guy's trashed.

656
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:50,839
Speaker 4: It's a black hole they're just playing in because they're

657
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 4: tanking like. It's a higher floor team than we've seen

658
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 4: out of the Texans. I happen to have a lot

659
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 4: of respect for Demico Ryans. Rookie head coaches in their

660
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 4: first road game have crushed it against the spread. So

661
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 4: if you wanted kind of a counter trend to the

662
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 4: Harbaugh doing well in Week one, since two thousand and two,

663
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:14,320
Speaker 4: rookie head coaches fifty six, thirty nine and two fifty

664
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 4: eight percent against the spread in their first road game.

665
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 4: This is the time you want to fay Lamar Jackson,

666
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 4: who I think. I love the fact that they're going

667
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 4: with a more pass of your approach. But you know,

668
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 4: first game in a new first game in a new scheme,

669
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,280
Speaker 4: you know, coming off an injury last year, a little

670
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 4: bit of a weird offseason, but Jackson is a perfect

671
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,879
Speaker 4: five to zero against the spread as an underdog over

672
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 4: the past two seasons as a favorite five and fourteen

673
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 4: twenty six percent against the spread, including one and eleven

674
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 4: when favored by more than a field goal like this is.

675
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 4: If this trend keeps up, the Foraves are going to

676
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 4: be the new Chiefs.

677
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:55,959
Speaker 2: Where Okay, they're a very good team.

678
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 4: They probably win a lot of games, but anytime they're

679
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 4: favored by more than a justin Tucker Fadom, I know

680
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 4: you are a Ravens fan and you always have a

681
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 4: lot of intel, So from my vantage point, I have

682
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:09,800
Speaker 4: this one in the eightish range.

683
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:12,320
Speaker 3: If I had a bet this, I probably will go Texans.

684
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 3: The loss of Marlon Humphrey is huge for the Ravens defense.

685
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 3: He allows their defense to do so many things. They

686
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 3: don't have a great natural edge rush. They use a

687
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 3: lot of the skies and for simulated pressures and bring

688
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 3: pressure from different places. That's big. The one thing that

689
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 3: concerns me, though, is you know you have a rookie quarterback,

690
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 3: which but for what it's worth, in rookie quarterbacks to

691
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:35,760
Speaker 3: start in Week one, they have gone fifteen and thirteen

692
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 3: against the spread over the past twenty years. So but

693
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 3: what would concern me is strouded on the road in

694
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 3: the hostile environment with an offensive line that has six

695
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 3: guys on ir and Titus Howard is probably not going

696
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 3: to play. They're signing guys trading for guys that are

697
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 3: going to start, like within the last week. So the

698
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 3: offensive line, how will it hold up, is a major

699
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:01,720
Speaker 3: question mark for me. But I'll have more to say

700
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 3: about this later on the podcast when we talk about

701
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 3: our favorite totals for the little teaser. So I'll just close

702
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 3: out the twenty twenty three Week one Sunday SI Tech

703
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 3: with my third pick and the sixth overall. My first

704
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 3: four that I had that I wanted to go with

705
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 3: were the Browns, which you took, the Titans, which you took,

706
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 3: and then I was able to get to of mine

707
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 3: in the Packers and the Bucks. So the other game

708
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 3: that I show some value on and I am going to

709
00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 3: bet it, it's the Indianapolis Colts plus five, a team

710
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 3: that I'm super low on for this year, but high

711
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 3: on them for this spive. This is the AFC South Special,

712
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 3: by the way, the team that's supposed to suck in

713
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:52,280
Speaker 3: Week one pulls the outright upset over the team favored

714
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,479
Speaker 3: to win the division. Yep, there's a couple of things.

715
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 3: Look at number one, I think Jacksonville's a bit overrated

716
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 3: coming into the season that everything bounced right last year.

717
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,239
Speaker 3: I know they're often took off in the second half

718
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 3: of the year by the way, they started passing a

719
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:07,359
Speaker 3: lot going faster, and the Colts might pass a lot here,

720
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 3: and they were using some tempo, so this could be

721
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 3: a sneaky over. But the Jags secondary is terrible. Their

722
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:18,760
Speaker 3: defensive front seven is dealing with a number of different

723
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 3: injuries for a team that had no injuries last year.

724
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 3: One of other things that really went well for them,

725
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 3: But with the Colts, there's no Jonathan Taylor. I think

726
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 3: that might actually work in their favor here. Right, you

727
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:32,759
Speaker 3: have a new head coach, pretty sharp offensive mine, and

728
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:35,839
Speaker 3: then you have a new quarterback. Don't really know what

729
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:39,720
Speaker 3: we're going to see overall, but they can really attack

730
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 3: this poor Jacksonville secondary, and I think that they're going

731
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 3: to be able to score. I think that Richards is

732
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 3: eventually going to struggle and this Colts team, Look, the

733
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 3: defense is bad. Jacksonville should be able to put points

734
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 3: up on them, but this is just a sneaky We

735
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:59,800
Speaker 3: talked about how successful home dogs have been, especially within

736
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 3: division in Week one. I think this line is the

737
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 3: tad too high in a game where it might just

738
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,760
Speaker 3: be back and forth throughout, and I wouldn't be surprised

739
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 3: to see like the Colts get to win here and

740
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:12,399
Speaker 3: then they lose like their next seven. So I think

741
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 3: at plus five there's some value in the Colts. So

742
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 3: that's where I'm going for my final pick up the

743
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:22,760
Speaker 3: Week one Sunday six pack. Let's sweep the board.

744
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 4: Yes, or I'm glad you took this because I did

745
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 4: want to hear your opinion on it, because this was

746
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 4: the game I kind of struggled to handicap a little bit.

747
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 4: I'm just down on both of these teams, but really

748
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:39,239
Speaker 4: down on the Colts. But the one thing with Jacksonville

749
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 4: that's kind of maybe hesitant to back the Colts even

750
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:46,319
Speaker 4: though they are you know, these these spots have been

751
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 4: money is they didn't fire Gus Bradley somehow, like somehow,

752
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 4: Gus Bradley is back again. Three straight bottom ten finishes

753
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 4: for three different teams, and the Colts are the ones

754
00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 4: to bring them back yet again in a league that's

755
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:02,840
Speaker 4: going more and more too high. He's still running his

756
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 4: cover one, cover three, single high. Trevor Lawrence just eviscerated

757
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:11,240
Speaker 4: that last year. But to your point, that second matchup

758
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:13,840
Speaker 4: when Lawrence went twenty of twenty two, Coats won that

759
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 4: game thirty four to twenty seven, and that kind of

760
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 4: speaks to my concern with Jacksonville. Don't think the defense

761
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 4: is great Division week one.

762
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 3: Give me the points and sneaky overlook.

763
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:27,800
Speaker 2: That is that might be uglier than my Texans.

764
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:31,360
Speaker 3: I don't know box Colts and Packers.

765
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 2: I like it.

766
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 3: Let's go.

767
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 2: I like it.

768
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 4: I got the Titans plus three, the Browns plus two

769
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 4: and a half. Could wait see if he get a

770
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 4: plus three. I'd rather wait, get a plus three and

771
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 4: risk going it going down to two and then than

772
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 4: not again. Stuck has Tampa Bay plus six, Green Bay

773
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 4: plus one, the Coats plus five. I have the Titans

774
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 4: plus three, Browns plus two and a half, Texans plus ten.

775
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,439
Speaker 4: All right, that was our Sunday six pack for Week one,

776
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:01,279
Speaker 4: and now it's time or our coaches pep talk.

777
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 2: You keep playing the way you're playing, We're gonna get

778
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 2: a half feet again to night and it stopped right now.

779
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 4: This week's coaches pep talk comes to us from actor

780
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:15,759
Speaker 4: Kevin Dunn from the fake documentary Any Given Saturday Afternoon.

781
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 4: And let's dedicate this to the Arizona Cardinals, because everyone

782
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 4: expected them to just roll over, but they're not even

783
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 4: the longest spread on the slate that would be the text.

784
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 2: And so let's dedicate this to the.

785
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 4: Cardinals, who wouldn't completely shock me to see them pulling upset.

786
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:40,719
Speaker 4: I'll dedicate it to Arizona.

787
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 5: We are fighting a global fight for a share of

788
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:49,719
Speaker 5: people's TVs. We need to make this sport more exciting.

789
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 5: You are not losers, You are not dorks. You don't suck.

790
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 5: What you do is not stupid and worthless. I don't

791
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 5: give a shit who tells you that. I don't care

792
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 5: if it's your kids, your wives, your parents. You go

793
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 5: up and you tell somebody you're an athlete, that asshole

794
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 5: shouldn't be laughing.

795
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:13,920
Speaker 2: It's gonna be.

796
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 5: The greatest underdog story in the modern sports era. Now

797
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 5: that is a hell of a story.

798
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:26,919
Speaker 4: All right, Best of luck to the Arizona Cardinals and

799
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 4: stucky you and I know more memories are made when

800
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 4: you're there for live NFL action and when you need tickets,

801
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 4: Ticketmaster has got you covered. As the official marketplace of

802
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:43,120
Speaker 4: the NFL. Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your

803
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:46,800
Speaker 4: perfect seat. Their interactive seat map gives you three hundred

804
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 4: and sixty degree previews of your section to make sure

805
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 4: you have the best view of those pivotal plays and

806
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,960
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807
00:42:57,200 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 4: sell or transfer your tickets. Plus mobile tickets may getting

808
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 4: in on game day breeze, and you can even customize

809
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:08,440
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810
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 4: buying tickets today Ticketmaster dot Com, Flash and l all right,

811
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 4: Tom for our favorite total of the week.

812
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:21,320
Speaker 3: Where you're going, I'm gonna go with the Ravens Texans

813
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:24,799
Speaker 3: over forty three and a half. I'm watching the market.

814
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:26,239
Speaker 3: Haven't put this in yet because I want to see

815
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:28,399
Speaker 3: if a forty three pops kind of a key number,

816
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:32,080
Speaker 3: especially after the new extra point rule when it got pushback.

817
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 3: We give you more key, but obviously I got twenty

818
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 3: three to twenty. You know it's important, So I'm waiting.

819
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 3: I'm taking a little bit of a gam but like

820
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 3: we talked earlier about is this going to be an

821
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 3: explosion for the Ravens offense early or is there gonna

822
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 3: be some rust I think they're gonna have success early

823
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 3: on with the element of surprise, and I also think

824
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:54,839
Speaker 3: the Texans are going to have more offensive success than

825
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 3: many think, even with some of the offensive line issues,

826
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:01,040
Speaker 3: because the Ravens don't have Morelin Humphrey. And I cannot

827
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 3: stress how important he is to everything that the Ravens

828
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:06,239
Speaker 3: want to do on defense, especially when you get to

829
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 3: consider what their cornerback depth is currently right now. It's

830
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:15,279
Speaker 3: not great, and they don't have natural edge, you know,

831
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 3: pressure that they can generate to really give Stroud trouble.

832
00:44:19,040 --> 00:44:20,879
Speaker 3: So I think that they're going to be aggressive here

833
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 3: to try and make up for the loss of Humphrey,

834
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 3: and you know, that might lead to some mistakes or straw,

835
00:44:26,520 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 3: but I think it's also going to lead to some

836
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 3: explosive plays. His mobility will help here too with some

837
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:35,879
Speaker 3: of the offensive line juggling that Houston is dealing with

838
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:39,840
Speaker 3: right now. You also have two reliable kickers, which doesn't

839
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 3: hurt when you're talking about a total that's below forty five.

840
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think the Ravens get to thirty here

841
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 3: twenty seven thirty I can. I think I can trust

842
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 3: this Texans team to get the seventeen to twenty. So

843
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:59,279
Speaker 3: give me the over forty three and a half. In

844
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 3: charm City, it's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not save you.

845
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 4: I am going with an over as well. So this

846
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:09,280
Speaker 4: might be the only time all year we have two overs.

847
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 4: But it's Week one and this is the time to

848
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 4: kind of bet on you know, teams you think are

849
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:19,319
Speaker 4: over undervalued in the market, maybe offensively or overrated defensively

850
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 4: or whatnot. So I am going to go with the

851
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 4: over forty two and a half. In the Packers Bears

852
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:30,959
Speaker 4: game comes down to a couple of things. The first

853
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 4: one is I do agree with you that you know

854
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 4: this the Bears defense still not going to be too great,

855
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 4: and especially in week one, I like the Packers matching

856
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 4: up against this Bear defense on the ground. I think

857
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 4: they should still have success and still being health to

858
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:54,759
Speaker 4: the wide receivers. I do think Watson is talented enough

859
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 4: to beat these Bears corners, as is Dabs. You also

860
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:01,360
Speaker 4: have Jayden Reid and Luke Musgrave, so you have the

861
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 4: element of surprise there at a couple of rookies, and

862
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:05,719
Speaker 4: Musgrave in particular, you know, you can you can do

863
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 4: some things in the seam, at tight end and down

864
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 4: the field. Reed is more of an underneath guy. But

865
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:13,720
Speaker 4: you know, we look pretty good in the preseason.

866
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 3: Yet very vents route runner for rookie in the slot.

867
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 2: Right.

868
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:19,640
Speaker 4: So I do I think that the Packers will be

869
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 4: able to run. I think they'll be able to to throw.

870
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 4: So I think they'll be able to move the ball

871
00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 4: up and down the field. And even though the Bears, yes,

872
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 4: they're going through some things on the offensive line, I

873
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 4: do believe in Justin Fields. I do think that uh

874
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 4: he is going to take a step forward this year,

875
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 4: and I think his explosiveness, combined with the fact that

876
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:46,239
Speaker 4: I'm really not a big believer in Joe Barry, the

877
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 4: defensive coordinator of the Packers.

878
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 2: Every year this team.

879
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:51,239
Speaker 4: Has more and more talent on the defensive side of

880
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 4: the ball, and they keep finishing outside the top twenty

881
00:46:55,480 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 4: in defensive DVA. So will the Packers, you know, get

882
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:04,799
Speaker 4: some sacks probably, Will they get some stops, probably, But

883
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 4: I do expect the Bears to be able to run

884
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 4: the Packers. We're one of the worst run defenses the

885
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 4: hear Ago that seems to be a trend for them.

886
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 4: But I do think Fields we'll just take a step forward.

887
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 4: With the improved weaponry all around. You know, more guys

888
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 4: will be open, that should we to fewer sacks, That

889
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:24,400
Speaker 4: should allow him to get rid of the ball quicker,

890
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:26,480
Speaker 4: and this guy can still run, and he's still going

891
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 4: to kind of create off schedule plays. Whether you think

892
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 4: the Bears win or lose. I think you can count

893
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 4: on Fields for some off schedule plays. But so I

894
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:39,000
Speaker 4: do expect both offenses to have some success. I think

895
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:40,799
Speaker 4: it was important for the Bears, you know, to get

896
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 4: Moony back from injury, and they have Claypool and Tyras Scott,

897
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 4: so they have some upside at receiver, even if I

898
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 4: don't know if Moore is going to be a massive

899
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 4: factor in this game, expecting you know, jyr Alexander to

900
00:47:57,040 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 4: be more involved than he was last year in Week

901
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 4: one when Justin Jefferson went crazy, but who knows. But

902
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:07,399
Speaker 4: I do think the Bear supporting cast overall gives them

903
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:08,520
Speaker 4: a much better shot here.

904
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 2: I think I think they'll be able to run the ball.

905
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 4: But another reason I like this over is because I

906
00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:16,720
Speaker 4: do expect both of these quarterbacks to turn.

907
00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 3: The ball over.

908
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:20,240
Speaker 2: So you can see some short fields.

909
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:24,080
Speaker 4: Jordan Love at every level, whether it's been the NFL

910
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:27,800
Speaker 4: regular season interception rate about three and a half in

911
00:48:27,880 --> 00:48:28,800
Speaker 4: a small sample.

912
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:30,319
Speaker 2: I think it's about one hundred throws or so.

913
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:35,279
Speaker 4: The preseason another one hundred or so, also about a

914
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 4: three and a half interception rate. The league average is

915
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 4: like below twos two point two, usually two point three.

916
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 4: And then in his final year at college at what

917
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 4: was a Utah State, he led the entire nation D one,

918
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 4: D two, D three everybody in interceptions. And so this

919
00:48:53,760 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 4: guy has turned the ball over. This is one of

920
00:48:57,080 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 4: the youngest pass catching corbs in recent memory I can

921
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:06,399
Speaker 4: ever remember. You know, Watson here too reads your one.

922
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:10,760
Speaker 4: Dobbs is year two, Musgraves of rookie, and then Jordan

923
00:49:10,840 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 4: Love has limited experience. So I do think there could

924
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:15,759
Speaker 4: be some miscommunications here. I do think there could be

925
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 4: some mistakes, some turnovers. And the same is true on

926
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 4: the other side with justin Fields. You know, maybe he

927
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:25,080
Speaker 4: forces it, you know, with Jay r Alexander, maybe it's

928
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 4: you know, sack fumbles. Maybe it's just you know, more

929
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 4: of the bad decision making that we saw last year

930
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 4: and maybe you know it's gonna take some time for him.

931
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:35,040
Speaker 2: To develop fully.

932
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:38,919
Speaker 4: But I do think that you see turnovers on both

933
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:44,680
Speaker 4: sides here, so turnovers, underrated offenses, defenses that I'm still

934
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:48,360
Speaker 4: a little iffy about, and a pretty low total. I know

935
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:51,760
Speaker 4: it's a divisional game, but I have this at about

936
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:56,160
Speaker 4: forty four and a half forty five, so I am

937
00:49:56,200 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 4: about two points over this number. I would expect it

938
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 4: to go back to forty three months, you know, if

939
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:05,360
Speaker 4: if Watson and Dobbs are good. But yeah, going over

940
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 4: forty two and a half, Packers Bears don't mind it.

941
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:13,359
Speaker 4: And one thing I should also mention, probably are going

942
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:15,480
Speaker 4: to get some some weather in most of the outdoor games,

943
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:18,280
Speaker 4: so that is also something to monitor. You know, maybe

944
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:21,640
Speaker 4: hold off on some of these over bets until get

945
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:23,640
Speaker 4: a better grip of the forecast. But I'm seeing rain

946
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 4: and wind across a lot of these outdoor games, so

947
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 4: that's something to think about. Threecap stuck going Texans Ravens

948
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:34,360
Speaker 4: over forty three and a half. I'm going Packers Bears

949
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 4: over forty two and a half. Let's go to our

950
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:38,719
Speaker 4: favorite teaser of the week.

951
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

952
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:52,760
Speaker 4: Don't tease me to please.

953
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:56,879
Speaker 2: All right?

954
00:50:56,880 --> 00:51:00,920
Speaker 4: For those unfamiliar teasers that we can get an additional

955
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 4: amount of points to parlay between two spreads. Usually the

956
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:06,839
Speaker 4: standard is a six point teaser, which means if you

957
00:51:06,880 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 4: have a two team six point teaser and you tease

958
00:51:09,719 --> 00:51:13,239
Speaker 4: an eight point favorite, they become a two point favorite.

959
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 4: An eight point underdog would become a fourteen point underdog.

960
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 4: So that's how teasers work. And Stuck has some great

961
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 4: content out there. You can google.

962
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:26,799
Speaker 3: One NFL piece on the app or going over my

963
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:28,839
Speaker 3: fair plays also have a teaser section going over all

964
00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:33,319
Speaker 3: the math and all the cheeser tips and make sure

965
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:36,520
Speaker 3: you check that out. Yep, So just go right into it.

966
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 3: Where you going with your tea? Yeah, so the ideal

967
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:40,560
Speaker 3: teaser spots. My favorite teaser teaser I put in the

968
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:42,960
Speaker 3: app involves the Monday night game Jets from two and

969
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 3: a half to eight and a half and the Steelers

970
00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:47,799
Speaker 3: from two and a half to eight and a half.

971
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 3: For the sake of the show. If you if you

972
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:51,480
Speaker 3: just wanted to put a teaser for Sunday, I will

973
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:52,960
Speaker 3: go with the Browns from two and a half to

974
00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:55,360
Speaker 3: eight and a half. And pair them with the Steelers.

975
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:58,520
Speaker 3: I think in the case of the Jets and the Steelers,

976
00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:01,680
Speaker 3: and also with the Brain, the pressure that they can

977
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 3: generate is going to be massive in the Steelers case,

978
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 3: which we'll talk about that game. Since this how Sunday,

979
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:10,320
Speaker 3: we haven't talked about it yet. Bosa just got signed.

980
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:11,840
Speaker 3: For what it's worth, he just signed his deal. But

981
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:14,880
Speaker 3: it doesn't look like Kittle's gonna play, which is fairly important.

982
00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 3: But the biggest question on this forty nine Ers team

983
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:21,359
Speaker 3: is their offensive line and the Steelers defense, and that

984
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:27,840
Speaker 3: defensive front can pose serious problems for Perty and Company.

985
00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 3: And I think Pittsburgh can keep this at least within

986
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:34,080
Speaker 3: one possession and if they can cause enough havoc like

987
00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 3: we saw in a number of week ones recently, the

988
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:41,240
Speaker 3: Steelers pull off upsets at the Bills against the Bengals

989
00:52:41,320 --> 00:52:44,440
Speaker 3: last year. Tom Win, we know his success an underdog

990
00:52:44,480 --> 00:52:46,439
Speaker 3: fifty one to twenty seven and three against the spread

991
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:50,239
Speaker 3: as an underdog most profitable of all one hundred and

992
00:52:50,280 --> 00:52:52,239
Speaker 3: forty three coaches in our Action Labs database since two

993
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 3: thousand and three. He's also right right around eighty percent

994
00:52:56,080 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 3: when te's six points as a dog Shanahan struggled as

995
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:02,320
Speaker 3: a favorite. Pretty conservative at doesn't help this case. So Steelers,

996
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 3: I to keep this with one session at the minimum,

997
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:07,880
Speaker 3: tease them through the three and seven along with the

998
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:10,320
Speaker 3: Jets on Monday night. If you want to go off Sunday,

999
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 3: throw in the Browns.

1000
00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:12,960
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like that.

1001
00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:19,160
Speaker 4: I was initially going to go with the Raiders, but

1002
00:53:19,480 --> 00:53:21,960
Speaker 4: looks like they're up to three and a half and

1003
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:25,320
Speaker 4: I don't really need to tease that from three and

1004
00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:28,240
Speaker 4: a half to nine and a half, So I'm going

1005
00:53:28,320 --> 00:53:30,839
Speaker 4: to go I'll just I'm gonna I'll go.

1006
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:31,440
Speaker 2: Back to the Browns.

1007
00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 4: I'll tease them up from two and a half to

1008
00:53:33,239 --> 00:53:35,839
Speaker 4: eight and a half for our teaser as well, and

1009
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 4: I'll pair them with the Commanders from seven down to

1010
00:53:42,760 --> 00:53:44,520
Speaker 4: a point against the Cardinals.

1011
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 2: Do think you know, seven is a lot of points.

1012
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:50,320
Speaker 4: But at the same time, I still do expect Washington

1013
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:54,399
Speaker 4: to have enough defensively to be able to hold off

1014
00:53:54,400 --> 00:53:55,320
Speaker 4: this Cardinal team.

1015
00:53:55,600 --> 00:53:56,800
Speaker 2: A little bit worried.

1016
00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 4: About Sam Howe, but I do think Washington's able to

1017
00:53:59,560 --> 00:54:02,719
Speaker 4: get the get you in here, So I'll tease them down.

1018
00:54:02,840 --> 00:54:07,439
Speaker 4: Its play too, yeah, exactly so, and it's just cardon

1019
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:09,320
Speaker 4: and roster. I mean they've been trading the away guys

1020
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:12,520
Speaker 4: left and right, so it's you know, the Commanders can't

1021
00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:14,120
Speaker 4: get this done. They're going to be in for a

1022
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:17,799
Speaker 4: long season. Let me just recap it, Stuck, you got

1023
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 4: the Browns up from two and a half to eight

1024
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:23,720
Speaker 4: and a half, paired with the Steelers up from to

1025
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:26,319
Speaker 4: to Oh no, they're at two and a half as

1026
00:54:26,320 --> 00:54:29,759
Speaker 4: well now, so both of those teams are getting plus

1027
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,600
Speaker 4: eight and a half and then which is great because

1028
00:54:32,640 --> 00:54:34,239
Speaker 4: now now you're you know, it's more than a one

1029
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:37,839
Speaker 4: score game, and I'm going Washington from seven to one,

1030
00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 4: paired with the Browns as well, up to from two

1031
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 4: and a half up to eight and a half. But

1032
00:54:43,520 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 4: before we move on to our money line underdog par way,

1033
00:54:48,239 --> 00:54:51,399
Speaker 4: why don't you tell the people about something really cool

1034
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 4: that we got going on over at the favorite podcast?

1035
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:56,919
Speaker 3: All right, I don't remind everybody about our friends Chad

1036
00:54:56,960 --> 00:54:59,680
Speaker 3: and Simon over at the Favorites podcast running a totally

1037
00:54:59,800 --> 00:55:02,720
Speaker 3: f NFL pick them contest this year, five picks against

1038
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 3: the spread every week and they're gonna pay out one

1039
00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:07,760
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty thousand dollars in cash prizes with forty

1040
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:11,280
Speaker 3: k to the winner, bang out three thousand every week

1041
00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:14,759
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1042
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:17,560
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1043
00:55:17,600 --> 00:55:22,320
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1044
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:25,480
Speaker 3: com and sign up. I promise you joining one hundred

1045
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:28,960
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1046
00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:34,279
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1047
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:49,319
Speaker 4: All right, let's go to our moneyline underdog, Parley. So

1048
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:52,560
Speaker 4: for this one, what we do is we both choose

1049
00:55:52,680 --> 00:55:57,680
Speaker 4: a moneyline underdog. We parlay them together. So I know

1050
00:55:58,280 --> 00:56:01,640
Speaker 4: listeners out there love theirs. I get it. It's a

1051
00:56:01,640 --> 00:56:04,000
Speaker 4: great way to come up quick. But you can hope

1052
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:07,440
Speaker 4: so about these individually if you want uh or not

1053
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:09,880
Speaker 4: at all if you're not feeling them. But we have

1054
00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:13,360
Speaker 4: had a pretty good track record in hitting these, especially

1055
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:14,600
Speaker 4: with you. I know you went on a care at

1056
00:56:14,600 --> 00:56:19,480
Speaker 4: one point last year. So let's go and try to

1057
00:56:19,560 --> 00:56:21,759
Speaker 4: keep it going for twenty twenty three. Who do you

1058
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:23,760
Speaker 4: like for your moneyline dog and we want Yeah.

1059
00:56:23,600 --> 00:56:27,920
Speaker 3: Let's go with the Dolphins. At the Chargers don't really

1060
00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:30,360
Speaker 3: have much of a home field advantage. I show some

1061
00:56:30,440 --> 00:56:32,360
Speaker 3: value in this line, and I like all the uncertainty.

1062
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:34,440
Speaker 3: That's one of the things that I'm always gonna look

1063
00:56:34,480 --> 00:56:38,520
Speaker 3: at with a money line under dog. I probably would

1064
00:56:38,560 --> 00:56:40,719
Speaker 3: have played the Dolphins if I wasn't worried about some

1065
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 3: of the injuries. Armstead at tackle. You came back to practice,

1066
00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 3: Wattle's been dealing with injury. You did come back to practice.

1067
00:56:47,600 --> 00:56:50,000
Speaker 3: But there's some injuries here I'm a bit worried about.

1068
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:52,360
Speaker 3: But this is a really fascinating game just from an

1069
00:56:52,400 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 3: adjustment standpoint, and we're gonna see the Chargers new offense

1070
00:56:57,080 --> 00:57:01,320
Speaker 3: what that looks like, and so the some uncertainty there.

1071
00:57:01,760 --> 00:57:04,280
Speaker 3: Maybe there's some growing pains, maybe it's just an exposure

1072
00:57:04,320 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 3: on the start. But also we have the Dolphins who

1073
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:12,000
Speaker 3: are gonna make their adjustments from what the Chargers did

1074
00:57:12,000 --> 00:57:14,719
Speaker 3: to them to completely shut down their offense, threw off

1075
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 3: everything that they wanted to do, kind of provided the

1076
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:20,400
Speaker 3: blueprint for the rest of the league until TWOA got

1077
00:57:20,480 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 3: hurt on what to do right, getting up, pressing these receivers,

1078
00:57:24,600 --> 00:57:28,000
Speaker 3: throwing off the timing, getting hands and bodies in the

1079
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:30,880
Speaker 3: middle of the field. Now it's Week one against that

1080
00:57:30,960 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 3: same team for Mike mcdanna, who We're gonna see the

1081
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 3: adjustments here right in an important game for both teams

1082
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:40,280
Speaker 3: that could end up deciding a wild card. So I

1083
00:57:40,320 --> 00:57:41,960
Speaker 3: think there's a lot of uncertainty. You're not much home

1084
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:44,160
Speaker 3: field advantage two teams. I don't have too far apark.

1085
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 3: So with that uncertainty, give me the Dolphins money line.

1086
00:57:51,440 --> 00:57:55,480
Speaker 4: I'll go for my moneyline, dog with good old reliable

1087
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:59,600
Speaker 4: Pittberg Steelers TLUS one fifteen at bet MGM.

1088
00:58:00,200 --> 00:58:02,960
Speaker 2: The Steelers are at home.

1089
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:07,080
Speaker 4: You talked about it at home facing a Niner team

1090
00:58:07,120 --> 00:58:10,160
Speaker 4: that could be a little bit out of sorts. You know,

1091
00:58:10,200 --> 00:58:13,720
Speaker 4: Bosas just now getting back to camp. Kittle banged up,

1092
00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 4: may not play Brock Purty, you know, first real action

1093
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:19,720
Speaker 4: coming off that injury.

1094
00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:21,520
Speaker 2: I know he played some of the preseason.

1095
00:58:21,560 --> 00:58:24,800
Speaker 3: But spot for Tomlin to say.

1096
00:58:25,760 --> 00:58:29,600
Speaker 4: For Tomlin, what ra Ram Mike Tomlin?

1097
00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:33,280
Speaker 5: Spot, we win the game when this cruel bodies right

1098
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:36,680
Speaker 5: here today the only game today?

1099
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:39,920
Speaker 4: Now, I think it's it's not because the Niners are

1100
00:58:39,920 --> 00:58:41,200
Speaker 4: a very good team, you know. I think people are

1101
00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 4: gonna be like, you know, Niners and went thirteen to four.

1102
00:58:43,760 --> 00:58:46,800
Speaker 4: The party didn't lose until he got hurt. How the

1103
00:58:46,840 --> 00:58:50,040
Speaker 4: Steeers gonna beat him. But the Steelers have talent on

1104
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:53,680
Speaker 4: all three levels of the defense have I think the

1105
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:55,880
Speaker 4: offense is going to be better. I think Pickens breaks

1106
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:59,240
Speaker 4: out this year. I think the offensive line will be solid.

1107
00:58:59,360 --> 00:59:02,000
Speaker 4: Think picking Picket takes a step forward. So yeah, I

1108
00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:07,280
Speaker 4: love these Steelers in this spot. Mike Tomlin is to

1109
00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:12,880
Speaker 4: your point, fourteen and eight straight up sixty four percent

1110
00:59:13,480 --> 00:59:17,240
Speaker 4: as a moneyline home dog eight.

1111
00:59:17,040 --> 00:59:19,560
Speaker 2: And three over the past five seasons.

1112
00:59:19,680 --> 00:59:23,200
Speaker 4: That's a that's an underdog eight and three straight up

1113
00:59:23,240 --> 00:59:26,520
Speaker 4: as an underdog over the past five seasons.

1114
00:59:26,800 --> 00:59:30,000
Speaker 2: Win this game, Oh, straight up, win this game.

1115
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 4: It's it's really nuts. And you know tom Win is

1116
00:59:33,680 --> 00:59:35,720
Speaker 4: going to get this team up. You know, we don't

1117
00:59:35,720 --> 00:59:36,280
Speaker 4: got a chance.

1118
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:38,040
Speaker 2: This is a team that most people pick it to

1119
00:59:38,080 --> 00:59:40,479
Speaker 2: go to Super Bowl. Blah blah blah. I don't doubt

1120
00:59:40,480 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 2: that this Steeler team will be ready.

1121
00:59:42,280 --> 00:59:43,880
Speaker 4: I hate I kind of hate it though, because they're

1122
00:59:43,880 --> 00:59:46,720
Speaker 4: getting so much hype after preseason, which is meaningless.

1123
00:59:47,000 --> 00:59:48,320
Speaker 3: I don't really need validation.

1124
00:59:48,440 --> 00:59:51,840
Speaker 5: I just think it's difficult to box without sparring sharp

1125
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 5: and I sword for the battle.

1126
00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:55,560
Speaker 4: This is still this is still a good spot to

1127
00:59:55,600 --> 00:59:58,960
Speaker 4: back the Steelers. Here all right, So plus one fifteen

1128
00:59:59,040 --> 01:00:02,280
Speaker 4: for the Steelers against the Niners, plus one thirty five

1129
01:00:02,320 --> 01:00:05,200
Speaker 4: for the Dolphins at to the Chargers, you get a

1130
01:00:05,280 --> 01:00:09,400
Speaker 4: parlay odds of just over four to one, So plus

1131
01:00:09,400 --> 01:00:12,200
Speaker 4: four or five is the exact odds.

1132
01:00:12,240 --> 01:00:15,400
Speaker 2: So nice little return. Let's go now to.

1133
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:19,520
Speaker 4: Games that we haven't covered in any other segment but

1134
01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:23,560
Speaker 4: are still, as they say, meaningful to some.

1135
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:26,880
Speaker 5: That's gonna be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful

1136
01:00:26,960 --> 01:00:29,680
Speaker 5: to some of you, do you know what I mean?

1137
01:00:30,680 --> 01:00:33,680
Speaker 4: Carolina at Atlanta Falcons favored by three and a half.

1138
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:37,120
Speaker 4: I'm in line with that number. Don't really know where

1139
01:00:37,160 --> 01:00:38,959
Speaker 4: to go as far as the total. It's at thirty

1140
01:00:39,040 --> 01:00:41,960
Speaker 4: nine and a half. I'm down in Carolina and Frank

1141
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:46,160
Speaker 4: Reich four and one against the spread in week one,

1142
01:00:46,320 --> 01:00:51,640
Speaker 4: so I hate Wayne three and a half and divisional

1143
01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:54,000
Speaker 4: favorites are terrible in week one, but I'm just high

1144
01:00:54,000 --> 01:00:56,320
Speaker 4: in Atlanta and lowe in Carolina. So on principle, if

1145
01:00:56,360 --> 01:00:59,240
Speaker 4: I was gonna pick a side, I probably would still

1146
01:00:59,240 --> 01:01:01,840
Speaker 4: go Atlanta. But I don't want any parts to this

1147
01:01:02,120 --> 01:01:04,120
Speaker 4: three and a half. I'm just going maybe I'll have

1148
01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:07,200
Speaker 4: a prop or something in this game. But my thing

1149
01:01:07,240 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 4: is I just don't. I don't trust Reich's, Like, this

1150
01:01:09,480 --> 01:01:11,080
Speaker 4: is not one of those divisional dogs that I.

1151
01:01:11,120 --> 01:01:13,440
Speaker 2: Want to that I want to back. What about you?

1152
01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:15,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, you'll hear a lot of turns about the Colts

1153
01:01:15,720 --> 01:01:16,880
Speaker 3: a week one, but a lot of that can be

1154
01:01:16,920 --> 01:01:19,720
Speaker 3: attributed to Reich, right yeap to a different Colts team,

1155
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:21,960
Speaker 3: and I would agree that that is a lot of

1156
01:01:21,960 --> 01:01:23,760
Speaker 3: team I'm looking to back as a favorite of over

1157
01:01:23,800 --> 01:01:26,320
Speaker 3: three points. So maybe I'll have the money line or

1158
01:01:26,360 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 3: something or look for it live, but I do think

1159
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:32,720
Speaker 3: they get it done. But I'm pretty close to the

1160
01:01:32,720 --> 01:01:35,040
Speaker 3: market here, so pass.

1161
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:39,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, it should be an interesting game. Bijon Bryce Young

1162
01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:40,480
Speaker 4: A lot of things.

1163
01:01:40,520 --> 01:01:42,600
Speaker 3: Do I want to get the game for Falcon's futures

1164
01:01:42,640 --> 01:01:44,400
Speaker 3: that you got to beat the Packer at Panthers at home?

1165
01:01:44,440 --> 01:01:48,480
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, yeah, got some division futures that if Tennessee

1166
01:01:48,480 --> 01:01:50,840
Speaker 4: can win against the Saints and the Falcons can beat

1167
01:01:50,880 --> 01:01:52,760
Speaker 4: the Panthers here, I got pants and win total under two.

1168
01:01:52,840 --> 01:01:55,640
Speaker 4: So yeah, yeah, I do probably maybe I will take

1169
01:01:55,640 --> 01:01:57,920
Speaker 4: some money line here. But next up, we got the

1170
01:01:58,040 --> 01:02:01,560
Speaker 4: Eagles going to Foxboro to take on Patriots. The Eagles

1171
01:02:01,560 --> 01:02:03,680
Speaker 4: are four point favorites on the road. The total is

1172
01:02:04,040 --> 01:02:09,480
Speaker 4: forty five total seems a little high for me, but

1173
01:02:09,520 --> 01:02:14,200
Speaker 4: then you know, Eagles defense probably takes a step back,

1174
01:02:15,080 --> 01:02:20,800
Speaker 4: and Patriots defense, as good as they are, tended to

1175
01:02:20,840 --> 01:02:22,560
Speaker 4: struggle against mobile quarterbacks.

1176
01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:24,880
Speaker 2: So I don't really know what to do with this game,

1177
01:02:24,920 --> 01:02:26,120
Speaker 2: and he thoughts.

1178
01:02:26,120 --> 01:02:28,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm right in line. I mean, you could talk

1179
01:02:28,200 --> 01:02:30,760
Speaker 3: about the Belichick trends for days, but a lot of

1180
01:02:30,760 --> 01:02:32,760
Speaker 3: them were with Brady. In fact of the matters, he's twenty

1181
01:02:32,760 --> 01:02:36,240
Speaker 3: five and twenty five overall straight up since Brady left.

1182
01:02:37,920 --> 01:02:39,960
Speaker 3: I'm curious just to watch the coaching in this game. Right, Like,

1183
01:02:39,960 --> 01:02:43,600
Speaker 3: the Patriots have a staff, the Eagles have new coordinators,

1184
01:02:44,080 --> 01:02:46,640
Speaker 3: so we're gonna see what impact that has early on.

1185
01:02:46,720 --> 01:02:48,760
Speaker 3: Krit's a lot more uncertainy. Maybe Matt Patricia have an

1186
01:02:48,760 --> 01:02:51,400
Speaker 3: impact here. He's now with the with the Eagles, But

1187
01:02:52,120 --> 01:02:54,360
Speaker 3: I'm pretty a lined with the market. I would actually

1188
01:02:54,440 --> 01:02:57,320
Speaker 3: lean under like you brought up with that eat. That

1189
01:02:57,400 --> 01:02:59,760
Speaker 3: Patriots game against the Bears petrifies me and how they

1190
01:02:59,800 --> 01:03:03,640
Speaker 3: play against just the fields running wild. But I would

1191
01:03:03,800 --> 01:03:06,360
Speaker 3: expect Belichick to have a good defensive game plan here

1192
01:03:07,120 --> 01:03:09,320
Speaker 3: with you know, all off season to prep for the Eagles.

1193
01:03:09,320 --> 01:03:11,840
Speaker 3: On the other side of the ball. The Eagles defense

1194
01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:14,640
Speaker 3: should match up pretty well here. They can get pressure

1195
01:03:14,680 --> 01:03:19,320
Speaker 3: on the and really test those New England tackles, which

1196
01:03:19,360 --> 01:03:20,640
Speaker 3: is one of the weak points. And they don't really

1197
01:03:20,680 --> 01:03:24,560
Speaker 3: have breakout receivers that you can trust to make plays,

1198
01:03:24,600 --> 01:03:27,920
Speaker 3: so they should be able to get pressure. The Patriots

1199
01:03:27,960 --> 01:03:29,840
Speaker 3: know this, They're probably gonna go a little run heavy,

1200
01:03:30,960 --> 01:03:35,360
Speaker 3: and I trust the Patriots defensive game plan for this game,

1201
01:03:35,440 --> 01:03:36,600
Speaker 3: so I would lead under here.

1202
01:03:37,280 --> 01:03:40,120
Speaker 4: It is an interesting stat. The Super Bowl loser is

1203
01:03:40,200 --> 01:03:43,040
Speaker 4: just four and eighteen against the spread in Week one.

1204
01:03:43,840 --> 01:03:46,520
Speaker 4: Over the following twenty two seasons just eighteen percent against

1205
01:03:46,520 --> 01:03:49,800
Speaker 4: the spread. So if anyone is out there looking to

1206
01:03:49,840 --> 01:03:55,240
Speaker 4: bet this game, probably probably gotta wan we New England here,

1207
01:03:57,360 --> 01:04:00,520
Speaker 4: Rams at the Seahawks. I thought I was gonna be

1208
01:04:00,520 --> 01:04:03,400
Speaker 4: on the Rams and and Cooper Cup.

1209
01:04:04,200 --> 01:04:06,600
Speaker 3: No Cup is huge, and then you're back in that

1210
01:04:06,600 --> 01:04:11,240
Speaker 3: that horrendous defense and there's no Cup, and I can't

1211
01:04:11,320 --> 01:04:13,920
Speaker 3: light with the Seahawks. I'm now pretty close to the

1212
01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:16,360
Speaker 3: market and I would have considered the Rams. Maybe it's

1213
01:04:16,360 --> 01:04:18,760
Speaker 3: the money on dog or playing them, but no Cup

1214
01:04:20,160 --> 01:04:21,440
Speaker 3: is a pass.

1215
01:04:21,920 --> 01:04:24,040
Speaker 4: I mean, if I had to take a side, I'd

1216
01:04:24,080 --> 01:04:28,360
Speaker 4: still go Rams because he's still got Matthew Stafford.

1217
01:04:28,640 --> 01:04:30,760
Speaker 2: He'll still he'll throw the ball, complete passes.

1218
01:04:30,800 --> 01:04:33,320
Speaker 4: I mean, just beat a guys like to too out

1219
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:36,280
Speaker 4: Well and Van Jefferson and remember the Seattle team and

1220
01:04:36,320 --> 01:04:38,160
Speaker 4: we beat the Rams by like four points and I

1221
01:04:38,160 --> 01:04:43,560
Speaker 4: think of three backwards. But now we're talking about the defense. Yeah,

1222
01:04:43,680 --> 01:04:45,800
Speaker 4: that's going to be an issue because I happened to

1223
01:04:46,000 --> 01:04:47,240
Speaker 4: think the Seattle offense.

1224
01:04:48,160 --> 01:04:50,920
Speaker 2: I think Gino can build on what he did last season.

1225
01:04:51,640 --> 01:04:55,080
Speaker 3: Uh is going to play now and Cup not probably.

1226
01:04:54,760 --> 01:04:57,760
Speaker 2: Be limited, but yeah being.

1227
01:04:58,040 --> 01:04:59,800
Speaker 3: Huge, so no, no, thank you, so big.

1228
01:04:59,840 --> 01:05:03,400
Speaker 4: So especially the Rams lost their top six guys in

1229
01:05:03,480 --> 01:05:06,320
Speaker 4: terms of defensive snaps and the number eighth and number

1230
01:05:06,360 --> 01:05:06,920
Speaker 4: twelve guys.

1231
01:05:06,920 --> 01:05:08,160
Speaker 2: So it's I mean, this is.

1232
01:05:08,280 --> 01:05:12,080
Speaker 4: Bad, bad, bad bad bad bet Dallas at the Giants.

1233
01:05:13,720 --> 01:05:15,560
Speaker 4: The Giants are Oh I don't I don't even know

1234
01:05:15,600 --> 01:05:18,400
Speaker 4: if we said the number the Sea Ups were favored by,

1235
01:05:18,440 --> 01:05:20,439
Speaker 4: are favored by five and a half the total forty

1236
01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:22,360
Speaker 4: six in that one.

1237
01:05:23,800 --> 01:05:26,520
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe it over, but I don't know how I

1238
01:05:26,520 --> 01:05:28,040
Speaker 2: feel about the Rams offense.

1239
01:05:28,760 --> 01:05:31,360
Speaker 4: It could be raining Dallas at the Giants. That is

1240
01:05:31,400 --> 01:05:33,920
Speaker 4: the Sunday night game should be a good one. Giants

1241
01:05:34,160 --> 01:05:39,600
Speaker 4: three point underdogs at Mett Life the total forty six

1242
01:05:39,680 --> 01:05:40,400
Speaker 4: and a half.

1243
01:05:41,280 --> 01:05:41,680
Speaker 5: Ah.

1244
01:05:42,560 --> 01:05:44,280
Speaker 2: Somehow, some somewhere along.

1245
01:05:44,080 --> 01:05:46,240
Speaker 4: The line, I think, like, I don't know if it's sharp,

1246
01:05:46,360 --> 01:05:49,000
Speaker 4: so some somebody, everyone just starts to sour on the

1247
01:05:49,080 --> 01:05:53,000
Speaker 4: Giants a little bit. Uh. Three and a half, I'd

1248
01:05:53,040 --> 01:05:55,320
Speaker 4: be tempted to take the Giants. I think they're gonna

1249
01:05:55,360 --> 01:05:58,400
Speaker 4: be I think they're gonna be good again this year.

1250
01:05:58,400 --> 01:06:01,320
Speaker 4: I think, you know, year two of Dables system. I

1251
01:06:01,320 --> 01:06:06,040
Speaker 4: think Walard not gonna have like a Stefan Diggs, a

1252
01:06:06,200 --> 01:06:09,520
Speaker 4: J Brown type impact on Daniel Jones, but I think

1253
01:06:09,560 --> 01:06:11,760
Speaker 4: it will be a little closer than people think to

1254
01:06:11,880 --> 01:06:15,520
Speaker 4: that type of impact. I think Jones is very good.

1255
01:06:15,560 --> 01:06:18,080
Speaker 4: I think the I think the line has some upside

1256
01:06:18,080 --> 01:06:23,560
Speaker 4: to improve. I think the secondary has you know, could

1257
01:06:23,560 --> 01:06:26,520
Speaker 4: surprise the people. I think there there's better players there

1258
01:06:26,520 --> 01:06:30,440
Speaker 4: than people think, and they can rush the passer at

1259
01:06:30,440 --> 01:06:33,720
Speaker 4: that front. So I don't think the Giants is gonna

1260
01:06:33,800 --> 01:06:35,680
Speaker 4: kind of get rolled. But I'm also high on the

1261
01:06:35,720 --> 01:06:39,680
Speaker 4: Cowboys this year, so it's kind of tough. At three,

1262
01:06:39,760 --> 01:06:41,400
Speaker 4: I'm not doing anything with it. Three and a half,

1263
01:06:41,400 --> 01:06:42,040
Speaker 4: I'd be tempted.

1264
01:06:42,040 --> 01:06:42,440
Speaker 2: What about you?

1265
01:06:43,160 --> 01:06:45,520
Speaker 3: Yep? Same and we'll have this scheme written up with

1266
01:06:45,600 --> 01:06:48,400
Speaker 3: you and I just putting the primetime games Sunday Monday night,

1267
01:06:48,680 --> 01:06:50,400
Speaker 3: so I should die in the Giants are in the week.

1268
01:06:50,560 --> 01:06:52,760
Speaker 3: Nothing as of now, but I have a couple more

1269
01:06:52,840 --> 01:06:55,120
Speaker 3: days formulate my thoughts here where the market goes, maybe

1270
01:06:55,120 --> 01:06:58,640
Speaker 3: find a prop or something. So while that game written up,

1271
01:06:58,720 --> 01:07:00,800
Speaker 3: share all of our thoughts, but not thing as of now.

1272
01:07:01,400 --> 01:07:04,120
Speaker 3: Before we forget, you were gonna tease the Raiders, so

1273
01:07:04,160 --> 01:07:06,160
Speaker 3: we didn't get but you didn't We didn't get to

1274
01:07:06,240 --> 01:07:12,680
Speaker 3: that game. Raiders Broncos, I know you didn't like anything here.

1275
01:07:13,240 --> 01:07:17,240
Speaker 3: I actually would lean taking the points very low on

1276
01:07:17,240 --> 01:07:22,000
Speaker 3: this Broncos team. I I don't like the offensive coordinator.

1277
01:07:22,040 --> 01:07:24,560
Speaker 3: I think Russell Wilson has washed and they're dealing with

1278
01:07:24,760 --> 01:07:27,440
Speaker 3: just a ton of injuries, right, I mean they have

1279
01:07:27,480 --> 01:07:30,280
Speaker 3: injuries across the board on defense, number of guys on

1280
01:07:30,320 --> 01:07:33,240
Speaker 3: ir even Williams at running back, Judy a wide receiver.

1281
01:07:34,640 --> 01:07:38,240
Speaker 3: It's it's definitely a mass unit coming into this game,

1282
01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:42,240
Speaker 3: which is gonna make things a little more difficult for Denver.

1283
01:07:42,320 --> 01:07:44,560
Speaker 3: And I'm not sure they can take advantage of a

1284
01:07:44,640 --> 01:07:50,080
Speaker 3: week Raiders secondary. But the Raiders also have some Mishoes.

1285
01:07:50,120 --> 01:07:52,280
Speaker 3: I mean, Chandler Jones doesn't want to play for them anymore.

1286
01:07:53,080 --> 01:07:57,000
Speaker 3: Who knows what we're gonna get from that offense post Car,

1287
01:07:57,280 --> 01:08:01,760
Speaker 3: So little little lean to the Raiders here, don't even

1288
01:08:01,800 --> 01:08:03,760
Speaker 3: mind a little shot on the money line. With all

1289
01:08:03,800 --> 01:08:06,440
Speaker 3: of the injuries that Broncos are dealing with, even the

1290
01:08:06,520 --> 01:08:11,280
Speaker 3: right tackle Glinchy, who hasn't really seen much action over

1291
01:08:11,320 --> 01:08:13,560
Speaker 3: the past few weeks, I think they expect him to play,

1292
01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:16,679
Speaker 3: but who knows if we'll be up the game speed

1293
01:08:16,680 --> 01:08:18,639
Speaker 3: and up to speed with the playbook going up against

1294
01:08:18,680 --> 01:08:20,680
Speaker 3: Max Crosby, So there could be some issues here for

1295
01:08:20,760 --> 01:08:23,200
Speaker 3: Broncos team I'm not very high on, but I don't

1296
01:08:23,240 --> 01:08:27,000
Speaker 3: love the Raiders division dog though would lean that way,

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01:08:27,160 --> 01:08:28,080
Speaker 3: but passing.

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Speaker 4: As of now, Dad is going to wrap it for

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Speaker 4: our week one Action Network podcast presented by bet MGM,

1300
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Speaker 4: The King of Sportsbooks.

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Speaker 2: You can hear more of.

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Speaker 4: Myself with Kerner talking fantasy on the Flex Pod and

1303
01:08:46,520 --> 01:08:50,839
Speaker 4: of course Stuck talking college ball on the Big Bets

1304
01:08:50,960 --> 01:08:55,720
Speaker 4: on Campus Pod. On Friday morning, Stuck is on X

1305
01:08:55,920 --> 01:09:00,120
Speaker 4: at Stucky two. I'm at Chris Raybond and we are

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Speaker 4: at those same handles on the Free award winning and

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Speaker 4: so very very essential if you really want to take

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Speaker 4: your betting game to the next level. Action Network ap

1309
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Speaker 4: go download It is great, no cap until next time.

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Speaker 2: Let's get this.

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Speaker 3: Mic Leo.

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Speaker 1: Go Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

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01:09:28,360 --> 01:09:30,840
Speaker 1: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1314
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Speaker 1: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

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Speaker 1: Gambler