WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: December 8th, 2025 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:09.960 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:15.480 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.520 --> 0:00:18.720 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amerie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:22.320 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.319 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:35.880 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:39.159 We'll begin this hour with stocks rising as traders increased 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:42.040 risk appetite ahead of the Fed's rate decision. Christian Nolting 0:00:42.120 --> 0:00:45.879 of Deutsche Bank Private Bank Writing giving Given the positive 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:49.640 macro environment, we expect twenty twenty six to be another 0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:54.400 constructive year, albeit with continuing market volatility. Christian joins us. Now, Christian, 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:56.760 wonderful to see you, Thank you so much. So let's 0:00:56.800 --> 0:01:00.200 talk about twenty twenty six. Yes, continued volatility. Is there 0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:03.120 a c change and where the leadership comes from? Akin 0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:05.440 to what we heard from ed Yard Denny or suddenly 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:08.000 big tech doesn't cut it for leadership. 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:09.480 Everyone is a tech company. 0:01:11.200 --> 0:01:13.480 Well, I would say we still count on tech and 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:16.360 that tech delivers earnings. We do, though, expect that earnings 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:18.640 growth is coming down a little bit, which I think 0:01:18.800 --> 0:01:21.600 is really healthy. But of course earnings will be very important, 0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:25.160 and those companies won't deliver earnings in twenty twenty six 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:29.480 will certainly get say punished, and that could cause volatility 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:31.120 in the market. It's, by the way, one of the 0:01:31.160 --> 0:01:34.560 reasons why we are saying, probably for twenty twenty six, 0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:37.680 let's not be complacent and just expect the same really 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:41.240 positive performance we've seen so far this year and likely 0:01:41.280 --> 0:01:44.160 to get into the end, I hope. So from that perspective, 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:48.560 that's something to watch. But I still think THATAI is 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:50.880 not a bubble. I think it's still a boom and 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:53.360 a structural change, and that's why we are constructive for 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:54.160 next year as well. 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:56.000 Do you think that the United States is still the 0:01:56.040 --> 0:01:58.920 epicenter of that constructive change? That was also a big 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:01.080 part of edyr Danny's call is that the US has 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:04.400 benefited disproportionately to this point and that is poised to change. 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:09.959 Well, I still look very easily at productivity, and that's 0:02:10.000 --> 0:02:12.800 the highest in the US and honestly, I don't think 0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:16.519 that's massively changing next year. Look at Europe, for example, 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:20.160 productivity is far behind the US. Hopefully that's getting better 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:22.959 with the fiscal policy here, but to be seen. But 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:26.440 the thing to catch up on the US productivity is very, 0:02:26.560 --> 0:02:29.440 very tricky, at least in the short term. So longer 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:32.520 term maybe, but it's a long way to go. And 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:34.919 from that perspective, I think we have seen this year 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:40.360 the five but then with the investments coming in, I 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:41.800 would say that's continuing. 0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:45.440 You make a good note in your research about how 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:47.560 the government stimulus we're going to get from the United 0:02:47.600 --> 0:02:49.640 States when it comes to one big beautiful bill is 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:52.880 going to be timed after three Fed interest rate cuts. 0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:55.520 So Christian, looking at next year, do you think the 0:02:55.560 --> 0:02:56.919 Fed needs to cut anymore? 0:02:58.520 --> 0:03:00.560 Well, I think if you look at the APPS level, 0:03:00.639 --> 0:03:02.799 I wouldn't be surprised if we see three cuts, So 0:03:02.960 --> 0:03:05.720 starting probably this week is the first, and then two 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:07.400 more into next year. If you look at a twelve 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:11.040 months time horizon, I think that could be justified because 0:03:11.480 --> 0:03:15.560 although there is physical spending, yes, and increasing, but I 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:18.079 would say at this point in time, and you rightly said, 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:19.760 we don't have all data yet, but I think the 0:03:19.840 --> 0:03:22.239 US is a bit in a weaker spot. On the 0:03:22.280 --> 0:03:25.040 other end, something I think very important we also say 0:03:25.040 --> 0:03:27.400 in the outlook is inflation. So if you look at 0:03:27.400 --> 0:03:30.040 the ten year use treasuries, we think they could be 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:33.160 four fifteen like exactly where we are right now in 0:03:33.240 --> 0:03:36.360 twelve months time, because inflation remains a topic. So we 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:39.560 don't see inflation to substantially come down, but even go 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:42.320 up to slightly from two point eight to two point nine. 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:43.240 That's our forecast. 0:03:43.480 --> 0:03:46.840 You also think that policy will deliver a cycracal impulse 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:49.560 in Europe. What kind of policies are you looking at, 0:03:49.560 --> 0:03:51.880 because Europe at the moment, especially seeing the data out 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:53.080 of China, is struggling. 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:57.920 That's correct, But of course I look at the largest economy, Germany, 0:03:58.000 --> 0:04:00.320 not because I'm obviously in Germany at this point time, 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:05.240 but so far it was roughly not growing, so zero percent, 0:04:05.840 --> 0:04:08.240 and I do think it could go to one point 0:04:08.320 --> 0:04:10.760 three to one point five nixt year because not of 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:13.960 monetary policy of the ECB. There we do expect the 0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:16.600 ECB to stay steady at two percent for the whole 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:20.520 year next twenty twenty six, but it's fiscal policy, and 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:24.200 that's why we see that government spending which is coming now. 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:26.120 It was a bit delayed, I have to say, but 0:04:26.400 --> 0:04:28.359 now we see that really happening, which is good news. 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:28.839 Christian. 0:04:28.880 --> 0:04:31.840 How much is your constructive outlook next year really predicated 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:34.280 on this idea of fiscal and monetary support from the 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:37.839 United States in particular, but also globally, well. 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:43.320 It's a major source of growth absolutely, ba in the US. 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:47.880 We do see Germany especially doing something. It's a lot 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:50.040 of fiscal policy, but then the center winks as well. 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:52.120 I think Bank of Japan, of course, is different. We 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:55.520 expect two hikes there. But otherwise, if you look at 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:59.359 monetary policy, we counted more than potentially eighty cuts of 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:03.360 global sen I think that's quite a constructive environment, perse 0:05:03.520 --> 0:05:04.040 I would. 0:05:03.800 --> 0:05:06.040 Say, which is probably the reason why if anyone has 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:07.640 a deal to announce, let's announce it. 0:05:07.640 --> 0:05:09.719 That seems to be the mood of the morning, the 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:11.000 mood of the week, the mood of the month. 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:13.640 We've certainly seen that from the likes of Netflix and 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:14.279 Warner Brothers. 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:15.359 We've seen that with the debt. 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:18.080 Issue, and from the likes of Oracle, which reports earnings 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:20.160 this week, as well as Meta, as well as a 0:05:20.200 --> 0:05:22.720 whole host of the other tech names. I'm just wondering, 0:05:22.760 --> 0:05:24.320 at what point you think that it's going to become 0:05:24.400 --> 0:05:28.120 too much for debt markets to finance, given some of 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:30.920 the concerns about the structural changes in this industry. 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:34.200 Yeah, I think there's a lot of discussion about this, 0:05:34.240 --> 0:05:36.240 but I think it's a normal development. We've seen this 0:05:36.320 --> 0:05:40.520 in other major structural trendships that companies started at one 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:43.400 point in time to use also debt because free cashlow 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:46.480 was not always enough. I think I've not seen really 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:49.159 some bond auctions struggling at this point in time. There's 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:51.359 a lot of demand, and I think given all the 0:05:51.400 --> 0:05:54.640 discussion about sovereign debt, which is there because of all 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:58.320 the fiscal policy, people look at also corporate bonds and 0:05:58.360 --> 0:06:01.479 if there's an attractive of course they will go for this, 0:06:01.640 --> 0:06:04.600 especially if it's investment grade, which we still recommend, or 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:06.880 those spreads are quite low. So if I don't see 0:06:06.880 --> 0:06:10.640 a recession, which with all the fiscal policy is quite unlikely, 0:06:10.720 --> 0:06:12.880 I think then it's still an interesting investment. And again 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:15.880 I've not seen any bond auction struggling at this point 0:06:15.880 --> 0:06:17.719 in time. But of course it's something to be watched. 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:19.960 Just heading into next to your Christian what's your highest 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:21.760 conviction trade? 0:06:22.160 --> 0:06:24.160 I would still say is gold on the one hand, 0:06:24.320 --> 0:06:26.200 to be very honest. On the other hand, what I 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:29.960 just said, corporate bonds looks very interesting. On the equity 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:33.719 side with all that fiscal policy, I would say could 0:06:33.760 --> 0:06:37.440 also be constructive, but don't expect the same double digit performance. 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:41.320 I would be okay if it's like single digit, high 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:44.120 single digits, say eight to nine percent, that would rather 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:44.960 be our forecast. 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:48.640 Stay with us. More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 0:06:58.000 --> 0:06:58.800 We'll let you got to go. 0:06:58.760 --> 0:07:00.799 Through a process see what happens. 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:04.680 So Netflix a great company and they've done a phenomenal job. 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:07.120 Ted is a fantastic man. I have a lot of 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:09.800 respect for him. But it's a lot of market share. 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:12.160 He's done one of the greatest jobs in the history 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:16.200 of movies and other things that He's got a lot 0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:19.120 of interesting things happening. But it is a big market share. 0:07:19.240 --> 0:07:21.800 There's a question, but it could be a problem. 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:24.040 Here's the latest President Trump weighing in on Netflix, this 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:26.960 seventy two billion dollar deal to buy Warner Brothers Discovery, 0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:31.000 saying it could face difficulty being approved due to antitrust 0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:32.960 worries joining us now as KEITHA Ron Knath and of 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:35.600 Bloomberg Intelligence, Keith that we talked about this last week. 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:38.240 This was going to be in albatross to get through 0:07:38.240 --> 0:07:40.680 the regulatory hurdles. How much bigger do they get over 0:07:40.720 --> 0:07:41.160 the weekend? 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:46.000 It definitely got a whole lot bigger With President Trump. 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:47.920 I mean there was first the school from Lucas Shaw 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:51.320 which seemed to suggest that Netflix had ted Surroundos had 0:07:51.360 --> 0:07:55.520 actually met with President Trump before the deal, and then 0:07:55.560 --> 0:07:58.880 of course you have him kind of weighing in. This 0:07:58.960 --> 0:08:01.680 is going to be a very very long road, Lisa, 0:08:01.720 --> 0:08:03.360 there is no doubt about it. We're going to get 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:06.240 a whole lot of noise. There is the constant question 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:09.560 looming about the two services, the Netflix platform with over 0:08:09.640 --> 0:08:13.160 three hundred million subscribers, HBO Max with over one hundred, 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:16.240 two hundred and thirty million subscribers. I mean that pretty 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:18.960 much makes up over half the market, and so you 0:08:19.000 --> 0:08:21.720 know the question is going to be whether Netflix is 0:08:21.720 --> 0:08:24.720 going to be forced to divest HBO Max down the road. 0:08:25.240 --> 0:08:28.040 But expect a lot of noise, and that's kind of 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:30.920 reflected in the five point eight billion dollar termination fee, 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:33.880 one of the biggest fees that we've seen so far 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:35.319 in the history of media deals. 0:08:35.400 --> 0:08:36.840 Yeah, and a question of how this is all going 0:08:36.840 --> 0:08:39.480 to get financed. Keith roganath and a Bloomberg Intelligence stay close, 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:41.880 will be catching up with you throughout the day and 0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:45.160 week ahead. Robert Fishman of Maffat Nathanson writing, Ultimately, we 0:08:45.160 --> 0:08:48.199 think the likelihood of approval comes down to how successful 0:08:48.240 --> 0:08:51.239 Netflix will be in defining the market beyond the traditional 0:08:51.360 --> 0:08:52.520 media landscape. 0:08:52.840 --> 0:08:53.839 Robert joins us. 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:56.000 Now, Robert, this is one of the most fascinating deals 0:08:56.040 --> 0:08:59.000 because it's at the cross section of politics and frankly 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:01.880 a deep transfer of the media space. How do you 0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:04.760 expect Netflix to spin this to indicate that they're not 0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:07.600 quite as dominant as the potential four hundred and fifty 0:09:07.640 --> 0:09:11.520 million dollars million subscribers might suggest. 0:09:12.040 --> 0:09:12.640 Yeah, thank you. 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:15.120 So, when you look at the market, it really comes 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:17.640 down to how you define it. And when you look 0:09:17.640 --> 0:09:21.760 at the streaming market, Netflix is actually number two right 0:09:21.800 --> 0:09:24.240 now to YouTube. That's something that not a lot of 0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:26.080 people really. 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:26.440 Know out there. 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:29.480 So when you think about YouTube and the size and 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:34.400 scale of a free platform, that's how Netflix is thinking 0:09:34.440 --> 0:09:37.600 about this in terms of the share that they get 0:09:37.679 --> 0:09:41.120 on the total streaming not just streaming, but the total 0:09:41.200 --> 0:09:45.440 viewing platform. And that doesn't even include other short form 0:09:45.520 --> 0:09:49.840 content like TikTok and Instagram, and so really, when you 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:53.280 define what the marketplace is, that's how Netflix is going 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:58.280 to look to take this to the regulatory approval process. 0:09:58.520 --> 0:09:59.960 I think most people think that they're just going to 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:04.280 talk about Amazon's Prime Walt Disney when it comes to streaming, 0:10:04.360 --> 0:10:06.720 so that likes of TikTok and YouTube make this a 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:08.880 little bit more interesting. Do you think it's going to 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:10.679 work with the regulators? 0:10:13.280 --> 0:10:16.679 I mean, time will tell, but I do think Netflix 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:20.720 clearly has a points right when thinking about who they're 0:10:20.720 --> 0:10:24.200 competing against and what the long term view of the 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:28.640 media landscape looks like. YouTube is that biggest media player 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:32.040 out there. That's what my colleague Michael Nathanson has been 0:10:32.080 --> 0:10:34.800 writing for a long time now. So we can't ignore 0:10:34.880 --> 0:10:38.640 YouTube and thinking about Alphabet and these other large digital 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:43.240 players when defining the market. So, yes, within streaming and 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:46.439 subscription streaming, I should say Netflix. 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:48.960 Clearly has dominated and won that war. 0:10:49.360 --> 0:10:52.040 But when you think about the broader market overall, I 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:54.480 think you have to factor in these other players. 0:10:54.679 --> 0:10:56.160 I think we also have to factor what the President 0:10:56.240 --> 0:10:58.560 United States said last night, Robert He said that this 0:10:58.559 --> 0:11:01.000 would be a big market share could be a problem. 0:11:01.080 --> 0:11:05.199 After our colleague Lucas Shaw reported that the co CEO 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:07.720 of Netflix left the White House and apparently Trump had 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:11.079 said Warner Brothers should just sell to the highest bidder. 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:13.120 Do you think the President of United State, it's getting 0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:16.359 intimately involved in this deal potentially mean problems. 0:11:19.080 --> 0:11:19.280 Yeah. 0:11:19.320 --> 0:11:21.320 I mean there's a lot to still play out here. 0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:25.240 I think something that we're quitely very focused on right 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:29.440 now is Paramount Skydance really done, And so I think 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:32.520 that there's a lot more noise that could come within 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:37.600 this whole bidding war. Clearly Netflix has won in terms 0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:41.600 of the announcement and moving forward with this regulatory process. 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:45.479 But what we're most interested right now is Paramount Skydance 0:11:45.520 --> 0:11:48.520 going to come back with a either more aggressive bid 0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:51.400 or are they going to take their bid and go 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:53.000 hostile towards the shareholders. 0:11:53.000 --> 0:11:55.400 Wellert, this feels existential, and I'm not sure who it's 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:57.840 more existential for. It was thought to be more existential 0:11:57.880 --> 0:12:01.000 for Paramount Skydance, but suddenly there's a real question that 0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:04.360 maybe for Netflix it's equally existential. What do you think, 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.280 I mean, who sort of guy has the bigger motivation 0:12:06.720 --> 0:12:07.640 to make this happen. 0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:13.439 So I think Netflix has looked at this as an opportunistic, 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:15.600 you know, rare opportunity. I think what was there was 0:12:15.640 --> 0:12:19.400 their words they used in terms of what this asset 0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:23.320 and these multiple assets and all of the premium ip 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:26.320 that comes with it, thinking about the Warner Brothers studio, 0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:29.920 both theatrical TV studio and of course let's not forget 0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:32.400 HBO and all all of the premium content that comes 0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:32.840 out of that. 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:36.000 So from Netflix the standpoint. 0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:38.360 They also have a lot of amazing data that they've 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:42.000 gotten from Warner Brothers Discovery over the years of licensing 0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:44.800 that content and seeing how it performs on their platform. 0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:46.240 So for them, they. 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:50.120 See this as clearly a very unique opportunity that they 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:54.800 have to monetize this content, increase engagement and really you know, 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:58.319 grow the assets some in some direction that they think 0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:01.199 that they could do a much better job of under 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:04.400 their own platform than Warner Brothers Discovery could do with 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:08.440 a subscale platform. Yes, it's clearly a big platform compared 0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:11.640 to some of the other competitors, but Netflix just takes 0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:14.360 it to a different level. For the other guys, and 0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:18.880 you mentioned Paramount, Skuidance and even Comcast and what they're 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:22.440 looking to do for Peacock, it does become some sort 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:26.439 of an existential question because those are the platforms that 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:30.800 need this content, we would argue even more to really 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:35.240 help fix and define where their future is going in 0:13:35.320 --> 0:13:38.839 terms of how they're looking to compete with the Netflix's, 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:42.400 Disney's Amazons of the world. So for them, we do 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:45.000 think that ultimately they need it more than Netflix does. 0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:48.559 Just quickly here, Robert was looking at Cinemark shares on 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:52.480 Friday down eight percent, AMC down almost three percent. 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:54.360 Are movies dead in the movie theater? 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.080 I definitely wouldn't call them dead, but this is a 0:13:59.120 --> 0:13:59.679 new threat. 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:05.120 Have been through definitely some some difficult years and have 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:08.280 gotten through a lot of that and most of that 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:09.240 on the other side. 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:11.120 This is this is a new one. 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:14.320 And in terms of what this means for theatrical releases, 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:18.199 Netflix has already indicated that they plan to keep the 0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:23.400 business operations you know as as it currently stands today. 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:27.280 That means theatrical release releases for Warner Brothers Discovery, but 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:33.120 clearly given Netflix's own strategy with theatrical releases, it raises 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:36.920 questions in terms of what that ultimately means for how 0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:38.840 long the window is going to be for for the 0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:43.160 Warner Brothers Discovery releases that the Warner Brothers releases, and 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:46.440 what Netflix will look to do with that with their 0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:50.200 own with their own content. So lots of questions that 0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:53.960 this raises. So far, Netflix is saying status quo, but 0:14:54.280 --> 0:14:57.040 I think investors, as you point out, have some skepticism 0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:57.520 around that. 0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:01.360 Stay with us Multpleinberg savannas coming up off to this. 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:12.040 Joining us now is it? 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:16.320 Patrick McHenry a former House Financial Services Committee chair, Patrick, 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:17.040 great to have you. 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:18.520 Thank you so much for being with us. 0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:21.120 What do you make of some of the noises coming 0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:24.280 from inside the White House about some controversy about how 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.120 to message affordability issues? 0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:29.560 Well, it is the driving issues, the driving issue that 0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:33.000 brought President Trump back to the White House one year ago, 0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:37.280 and it's a driving issue for voters at the last election. 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:41.240 That message is very clear to the White House, and 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:45.080 they have their best economic messenger, Scott Bessett, out there 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:48.280 delivering what is a distinct message for this administration. 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:49.400 They're going to address it. 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:52.640 They believe that they can conquer it and they can 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:56.680 actually get to a prosperity message rather than just conquering 0:15:56.960 --> 0:16:00.720 the price of things. But it's going to be it's 0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:04.720 going to be a tough effort because the stickiness of 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:09.880 inflation has impacted fed policy. It obviously impacted and the 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:13.040 last administration was unable to do anything. 0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:14.520 And substance about it. 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.880 But the president believes they have a very good economic message. 0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:22.720 They have to just deliver on the regulatory relief and 0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:27.840 the tariff negotiations that are foremost with this administration. 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:31.120 Do you think the president himself needs to really look 0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:33.680 at the words he uses when he talks out affordability. 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:35.720 There's this Wall Street Journal article that a lot of 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:39.280 AIDS seldom needs to calibrate his message because remember during 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:41.760 the Biden administration, they would tell you the economy was 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:44.640 doing so well, but people weren't feeling it because of 0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:46.040 how high prices were. 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:49.600 Well, look, the Biden administration was, don't believe you're lying eyes. 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:54.720 The economy is fantastic, Do not believe what you actually feel. 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:56.800 That is not a winning message. 0:16:56.800 --> 0:17:01.640 It's a very bad message for politicians at every level 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:04.440 to tell the voters that they're dumb and they don't know. 0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:05.080 What they're thinking. 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:09.160 So you see a few things that the president floated, 0:17:09.160 --> 0:17:14.000 that this was a really partisan initiative to talk about affordability, it. 0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:14.960 Was coming from the left. 0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:17.919 I think you're going to see that dialed in in 0:17:17.960 --> 0:17:19.640 the coming weeks and coming months. 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:22.159 And I think the clear message. 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:25.320 Here came from Scott Bessett this weekend going out with 0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:30.120 really what is a honed economic message they had deeply contemplated. 0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:32.560 Patrick, with all due respect, you say that it was 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:34.920 a losing message from the Biden administration. Do you think 0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:38.399 that affordability is a hoax a winning message coming from 0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:39.320 the White House currently? 0:17:40.280 --> 0:17:41.560 No, not at all. 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.679 And so what I'm saying is that the President is 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:49.200 going to hone a message that is distinct as he does, 0:17:50.119 --> 0:17:52.159 and we're all going to watch his aides are going 0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:54.800 to watch how he hons it, but no one's going 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:57.680 to control his message. They didn't do it the first term, 0:17:57.760 --> 0:18:00.760 they're not doing it the second term. And Scott Besson 0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:04.760 is out with a very honed, very focused economic message. 0:18:04.800 --> 0:18:06.840 That's the person we have to dial to. We'll see 0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:10.679 what Kevin Hassett does this week, and whether they've doubled 0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:14.680 down on the Besset message that is actually a much 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:18.800 more winning message than what President Trump rolled out, which 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:23.119 was an echo of what Biden Biden did in his 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:24.080 final year or two. 0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:26.280 Patrick, do you think that messaging is enough or do 0:18:26.320 --> 0:18:28.720 you think that it's sort of imperative on this administration 0:18:28.920 --> 0:18:32.080 to deliver two thousand dollars checks or deliver other kinds 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:36.280 of more significant measures that make people feel immediately like 0:18:36.320 --> 0:18:39.440 they are getting some sort of immediate benefits. 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:43.000 No, the immediate benefit has to come from the regulatory really, 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:45.359 if they're driving the agencies, which takes time for it 0:18:45.400 --> 0:18:48.480 to be felt. The tax bill that was signed into 0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:52.120 law in record speed, six months earlier than they did 0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:54.879 in the first term, those things will have effects. But 0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:57.040 the big driver here and the big drag on the 0:18:57.119 --> 0:19:00.200 economy are tariffs. The cost of things come in the 0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:03.880 United States are more expensive because of tariffs. That does 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:06.840 have an impact on the economy. It does have impact 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:10.880 on people's lived experience. Getting that right is the biggest 0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:15.120 economic delivery this administration could have. That is far better 0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:19.359 than any words that any politician can utter. 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:22.480 Patrick, do you think we're going to see some sort 0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:26.280 of reconciliation from Democrats and Republicans on what to do 0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:28.240 when it comes to healthcare. This week we should have 0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:32.520 a Senate vote on the enhanced Obamacare sub season. I'm 0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:35.760 just wondering if we're barreling once again, maybe on January thirtieth, 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:37.320 to another government shutdown. 0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:41.480 I think that's the most likely scenario, is that we're 0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:47.919 going we're barreling towards no extension of healthcare policy and 0:19:47.960 --> 0:19:50.719 then breaksmanship when it comes to government funding. 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:52.800 These things have not been resolved. 0:19:53.040 --> 0:19:56.199 The Democratic Party is offered not what they said they 0:19:56.200 --> 0:19:58.919 would offer, which was a one year extension. They're asking 0:19:58.960 --> 0:20:03.840 for a three year extension of policy. They're unseerious. Republicans 0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:06.119 have had this problem for a very long time on 0:20:06.200 --> 0:20:09.360 healthcare policy. It's not that they lack a plan, it's 0:20:09.400 --> 0:20:12.399 that they have too many plans. And so we're seeing 0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:15.000 this offering on the Senate floor this week, where you 0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:20.000 have multiple Republican proposals, none of which will get sixty votes, 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:22.520 and then we see a unified Democratic Party on a 0:20:22.560 --> 0:20:25.280 singular approach, which is continuing subsidies. 0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:26.440 I think this is. 0:20:26.680 --> 0:20:29.199 Headed for your train wreck rather than a compromise. 0:20:30.359 --> 0:20:33.920