WEBVTT - Muddy Waters Capital CEO, Founder Carson Block Talks Stock Picks

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.040
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:08.039 --> 0:00:11.080
<v Speaker 2>The Robin Hood Foundation is enlisting the boldest names in

0:00:11.119 --> 0:00:15.000
<v Speaker 2>finance for a stock picking contest. Participants are donating ten

0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:17.799
<v Speaker 2>thousand dollars and making two stock picks, a long and

0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:22.000
<v Speaker 2>a short per entry. Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg Television,

0:00:22.079 --> 0:00:24.480
<v Speaker 2>is working with the Robin Hood Foundation on the competition.

0:00:24.840 --> 0:00:28.040
<v Speaker 2>And one of the players here Carson Block. He's the

0:00:28.040 --> 0:00:31.640
<v Speaker 2>founder and CEO of Muddy Waters. Carson is currently ranked

0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:35.000
<v Speaker 2>at number twenty on the leaderboard and Carson this game.

0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:37.599
<v Speaker 2>I'm getting a kick out of it because when it started,

0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:41.120
<v Speaker 2>we were in a market that was net long, and

0:00:41.200 --> 0:00:43.960
<v Speaker 2>now you're looking at a lot of people starting to

0:00:44.040 --> 0:00:47.280
<v Speaker 2>win more deeply off their shorts. For example, Bill Ackman

0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:52.440
<v Speaker 2>short the financials that looked smart today, Stan Druckenmiller's short

0:00:52.440 --> 0:00:56.080
<v Speaker 2>consumer discretionary. What about you when you think about the

0:00:56.200 --> 0:01:00.240
<v Speaker 2>ability to go short in this market, how deeply do

0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:01.000
<v Speaker 2>you dive in?

0:01:03.400 --> 0:01:06.080
<v Speaker 3>Well? So for us, I mean we do.

0:01:06.400 --> 0:01:11.560
<v Speaker 1>All of our shorts are basically the subject of activist short.

0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:12.600
<v Speaker 3>Reporting at some point.

0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:15.880
<v Speaker 1>So the name that we're short for the contest anyway,

0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:18.880
<v Speaker 1>and we're not actually short, it in real life anymore.

0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:21.200
<v Speaker 3>But is Griffles, and.

0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:24.160
<v Speaker 1>That was the subject of an activist short report by

0:01:24.800 --> 0:01:28.920
<v Speaker 1>Gotham City Research, and that's a company based in Spain.

0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:33.919
<v Speaker 1>And it's actually pretty interesting because you know, at this moment,

0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:37.319
<v Speaker 1>obviously there's a lot of political turmoil, and you go

0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:42.360
<v Speaker 1>to Vice President jd Vance's dressing down of NATO ministers

0:01:42.560 --> 0:01:45.200
<v Speaker 1>a few weeks ago over a free speech in the EU.

0:01:45.880 --> 0:01:51.000
<v Speaker 1>It's funny because with Griffles, the national regulator in Spain

0:01:51.160 --> 0:01:55.560
<v Speaker 1>actually investigated the allegations by Gotham City Research and has

0:01:55.680 --> 0:02:00.000
<v Speaker 1>largely corroborated them. Griffles expects to pay though a fine

0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:04.480
<v Speaker 1>of no more than one million euro. However, the principles

0:02:04.520 --> 0:02:09.520
<v Speaker 1>behind Gotham City Research are presently under criminal investigation for

0:02:09.680 --> 0:02:12.560
<v Speaker 1>that report in Spain and could do up to six

0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:17.480
<v Speaker 1>years prison time. So Griffls really does have this political

0:02:17.639 --> 0:02:20.119
<v Speaker 1>overtone as well. That makes it interesting.

0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:23.160
<v Speaker 4>Well, I want to talk about a stock that actually

0:02:23.240 --> 0:02:24.800
<v Speaker 4>you don't recommend going short.

0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:26.400
<v Speaker 5>I'm talking about Tesla.

0:02:26.440 --> 0:02:29.200
<v Speaker 4>You spoke to Bloomberg TV about a month ago about

0:02:29.200 --> 0:02:30.280
<v Speaker 4>Elon Musk and Tesla.

0:02:30.360 --> 0:02:31.840
<v Speaker 5>Let's take a quick listen.

0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:36.200
<v Speaker 1>It's one thing to ask whether you bet on Elon Musk,

0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:39.520
<v Speaker 1>but I would not bet against him. I wonder if

0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:43.280
<v Speaker 1>he's I suspect he has switched views on a macro level,

0:02:43.440 --> 0:02:46.919
<v Speaker 1>but especially with how he thinks about Tesla, that would

0:02:46.919 --> 0:02:49.000
<v Speaker 1>be a little bit embarrassing for him to say publicly.

0:02:49.120 --> 0:02:53.000
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, maybe just banging the table about oh Ai

0:02:53.200 --> 0:02:56.919
<v Speaker 1>AI and robotaxis is how he tries to cover up

0:02:56.960 --> 0:02:59.000
<v Speaker 1>that sentiment shift internally.

0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:02.120
<v Speaker 5>So Carson, that was on February eighteenth.

0:03:02.200 --> 0:03:04.840
<v Speaker 4>The stock is down mightily since then, down about thirty

0:03:04.880 --> 0:03:07.480
<v Speaker 4>eight percent year to date. I know that Tesla has

0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:10.040
<v Speaker 4>broken the hearts of many folks who have tried to

0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:12.480
<v Speaker 4>go short it. But is that still the advice don't

0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:13.720
<v Speaker 4>bet against Elon Musk.

0:03:15.000 --> 0:03:19.400
<v Speaker 1>Well, i'd say more aptly, Tesla has broken the backs

0:03:19.880 --> 0:03:23.600
<v Speaker 1>of many people who've been shorted. But look, I still

0:03:23.680 --> 0:03:28.880
<v Speaker 1>maintain that it's really hard to bet against Elon Musk.

0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:31.360
<v Speaker 1>Of course, that was awesome timing when I said that,

0:03:31.440 --> 0:03:33.520
<v Speaker 1>because it's been about the best short you could find

0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:36.160
<v Speaker 1>on the planet since the moment in which I said that.

0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:39.080
<v Speaker 1>But you know, I think that's more due to market

0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:44.400
<v Speaker 1>factors and technicals and political uncertainty. Look, I've long been

0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:47.760
<v Speaker 1>critical and I agree with many of the shorts over

0:03:47.800 --> 0:03:51.200
<v Speaker 1>the years that he has not been honest. I've called

0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:54.800
<v Speaker 1>him publicly a liar, but also nobody has played the

0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:59.160
<v Speaker 1>public company game better than Elon Musk. Now is he

0:03:59.280 --> 0:04:03.120
<v Speaker 1>doing ereper bowl damage to the Tesla brand with his

0:04:03.440 --> 0:04:08.200
<v Speaker 1>political involvement. I mean maybe, But again, this guy for

0:04:08.360 --> 0:04:11.480
<v Speaker 1>years and years and years has done nothing but pull

0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:14.480
<v Speaker 1>rabbits out of the hat. Just when you thought like

0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:16.640
<v Speaker 1>he was about to go over the edge of the cliff,

0:04:17.200 --> 0:04:20.560
<v Speaker 1>he comes back. So it's just a very difficult person

0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:25.480
<v Speaker 1>against against whom to bet. So yeah, I there, you know,

0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:28.279
<v Speaker 1>We're happy looking elsewhere for shorts.

0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:31.760
<v Speaker 6>What do you think about the broader mag seven?

0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:32.520
<v Speaker 3>Carson?

0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:36.800
<v Speaker 6>Back in October you said close your eyes and buy

0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:40.200
<v Speaker 6>in terms of the big US stocks. For a while,

0:04:40.960 --> 0:04:45.120
<v Speaker 6>that was a great still a great bet right until

0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:48.160
<v Speaker 6>I guess the market hit it's high right in.

0:04:49.839 --> 0:04:50.400
<v Speaker 3>Last month.

0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:54.400
<v Speaker 6>Now we've seen the Magnificent seven come down. I think

0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:57.560
<v Speaker 6>all of them are losers year to date, with the

0:04:57.600 --> 0:05:03.200
<v Speaker 6>exception of Meta. Is is it time to short these

0:05:03.240 --> 0:05:07.240
<v Speaker 6>stocks or do you think they're going to continue to

0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:10.320
<v Speaker 6>have I guess a little bit of resilience even after

0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:13.960
<v Speaker 6>the pause that refreshes maybe that we've just seen.

0:05:15.320 --> 0:05:19.120
<v Speaker 1>So the larger context of what I was saying there

0:05:19.279 --> 0:05:22.200
<v Speaker 1>was I was talking about how in the US the

0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:27.040
<v Speaker 1>markets are so warped by passive investing and fundamentals matter,

0:05:27.640 --> 0:05:30.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, less and less every day. So the mag

0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:34.039
<v Speaker 1>seven will continue to attract because the S and P

0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:38.400
<v Speaker 1>five hundred index, it's it's really an active index, right,

0:05:38.440 --> 0:05:41.800
<v Speaker 1>they always call to herd and drop the weakest, and

0:05:41.839 --> 0:05:44.560
<v Speaker 1>then the companies who are experience, that are experiencing the

0:05:44.600 --> 0:05:48.840
<v Speaker 1>most market cap appreciation get greater weighting. So it's also

0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:54.000
<v Speaker 1>a momentum index. So momentum has sold off. But when

0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:57.120
<v Speaker 1>you look at why has momentum been such a strong

0:05:57.200 --> 0:05:59.799
<v Speaker 1>way to play the markets for you know, since really

0:06:00.200 --> 0:06:04.320
<v Speaker 1>the GFC, it has to do with monetary policy, you know,

0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:06.800
<v Speaker 1>and what's been for the vast majority of.

0:06:06.760 --> 0:06:08.640
<v Speaker 3>Time extreme stimulus.

0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:13.560
<v Speaker 1>And it's also been significantly attributable to the shift from

0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:17.960
<v Speaker 1>active investing to passive investing. So I don't see us

0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:20.080
<v Speaker 1>going in reverse way from passive.

0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:22.160
<v Speaker 3>So yeah, like twenty two, you.

0:06:22.160 --> 0:06:25.839
<v Speaker 1>Had a reversal when rate when you know, conditions tightened

0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:29.799
<v Speaker 1>and rates went up, and we're seeing political uncertainty weighing

0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:33.840
<v Speaker 1>on the markets right now. But yes, structurally, the top

0:06:33.920 --> 0:06:35.839
<v Speaker 1>names in the S and P five hundred are going

0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:39.080
<v Speaker 1>to going to continue to attract flows, and most of

0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:43.480
<v Speaker 1>those flows come from four oh one K purchasing. So

0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:48.320
<v Speaker 1>if you see a situation which unemployment climbs significantly and

0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:52.480
<v Speaker 1>four oh one K net flows become net negative.

0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:53.880
<v Speaker 3>Then you have to watch out.

0:06:54.040 --> 0:06:57.280
<v Speaker 1>Then all those stocks go into reverse hard, and it's

0:06:57.279 --> 0:06:58.760
<v Speaker 1>hard to see where the bottom would be.

0:06:58.760 --> 0:07:01.000
<v Speaker 3>But at this point in time, I don't see that.

0:07:01.160 --> 0:07:03.040
<v Speaker 2>You know, Carson. One thing that I've been watching very

0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:05.680
<v Speaker 2>closely is a turn and sentiment around financial stocks. This

0:07:05.760 --> 0:07:07.360
<v Speaker 2>is a hot trade. At the end of last year,

0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:10.480
<v Speaker 2>you made some big calls. The one against BX empt

0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:14.720
<v Speaker 2>in regard to the dividend turned out to play out.

0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:18.120
<v Speaker 2>Now I'm wondering how you're looking across the financials universe.

0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:22.840
<v Speaker 2>Are you looking for new shorts in banks, in real estate?

0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:23.679
<v Speaker 2>Where's the pain?

0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:29.960
<v Speaker 1>Well, I mean, look, we're we're generally not thematic, so

0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:33.080
<v Speaker 1>we you know, and we're only thematic when we look

0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:34.080
<v Speaker 1>in the rear view mirror.

0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:34.720
<v Speaker 3>So we did.

0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:37.480
<v Speaker 1>We were really early on a lot of shorting the

0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:40.520
<v Speaker 1>ESG type names. I mean so right now, we're not

0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:45.360
<v Speaker 1>looking in any specific sectors or even industries. I you know,

0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:48.560
<v Speaker 1>in terms of commercial real estate, you know, I'm not

0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:50.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, I don't know how much juice there is

0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:53.240
<v Speaker 1>to be squeezed there, because now there is this uncertainty

0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:55.800
<v Speaker 1>around rate cuts. You know, f rates get cut enough,

0:07:56.280 --> 0:08:00.200
<v Speaker 1>at some point, the CRE starts to look less bad

0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:03.480
<v Speaker 1>than it had been looking. So at this point, you know,

0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:06.520
<v Speaker 1>I don't really want to try to make it. I've

0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:09.160
<v Speaker 1>never wanted to try to make a rates bet, at

0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:11.760
<v Speaker 1>least on the future direction of rates. So I think

0:08:11.760 --> 0:08:16.320
<v Speaker 1>if you're considering CRE type shorts, you're starting to get into.

0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:17.320
<v Speaker 3>That land right now.

0:08:17.360 --> 0:08:21.080
<v Speaker 1>So, as you said, our thesis on BXMT played out.

0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:24.560
<v Speaker 1>You know, we're happy about that, but I think there's

0:08:24.600 --> 0:08:26.880
<v Speaker 1>too much uncertainty going forward for.

0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:30.440
<v Speaker 2>Us anyway, Carson, what about elsewhere in the world of

0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:32.560
<v Speaker 2>financial is one thing that there's a lot of bell

0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:36.719
<v Speaker 2>ringing about is the difference between public and private marks. Yeah,

0:08:36.800 --> 0:08:39.840
<v Speaker 2>you are starting to see more private capital type vehicles

0:08:39.960 --> 0:08:44.080
<v Speaker 2>enter the public markets. Private capital entering public markets. Are

0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:48.480
<v Speaker 2>you looking at BBC's or other types of vehicles that

0:08:48.760 --> 0:08:52.920
<v Speaker 2>might have private holdings that might not be reflecting those

0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:54.000
<v Speaker 2>underlying marks.

0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:58.920
<v Speaker 1>Well, that's interesting because I think it was maybe around

0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:04.520
<v Speaker 1>twenty fifteen BDC's were pretty hot area for short sellers,

0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:07.240
<v Speaker 1>and also prior to the financial crisis, you know, if

0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:12.160
<v Speaker 1>you remember, David Einhorn Greenlight famously shorted one of the

0:09:12.160 --> 0:09:15.360
<v Speaker 1>bit Allied Capital and wrote a book on that. So yeah,

0:09:15.480 --> 0:09:19.640
<v Speaker 1>BDC's in the past have been very aggressive with their marks.

0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:23.720
<v Speaker 1>You know, from our perspective, the issue is is there

0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:27.320
<v Speaker 1>enough liquidity in the you know, in the BDC and

0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:28.960
<v Speaker 1>so a lot of the air had come out of

0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:31.120
<v Speaker 1>them at some point. It's not an area that we've

0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:34.040
<v Speaker 1>looked at recently, but yeah, you know, I think once

0:09:34.080 --> 0:09:36.560
<v Speaker 1>you get a lot of capital flowing into that space,

0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:39.080
<v Speaker 1>you will certainly have players who are going to be

0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:42.000
<v Speaker 1>a lot more aggressive. And really anybody who gets to

0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:44.679
<v Speaker 1>make up their marks and gets compensated based on that

0:09:45.040 --> 0:09:47.560
<v Speaker 1>has a built in incentive to be really aggressive with

0:09:47.640 --> 0:09:50.800
<v Speaker 1>the marks. And we've never believed whether it's a VC fund,

0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:54.040
<v Speaker 1>a private equity fund, a BBC, we've never believed that

0:09:54.120 --> 0:09:59.040
<v Speaker 1>across the board these marks are genuine marks or really

0:09:59.280 --> 0:10:01.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, good fit eighth expressions the values of the

0:10:01.720 --> 0:10:05.400
<v Speaker 1>underlying assets, So yeah, that could be interesting.

0:10:05.679 --> 0:10:07.560
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, well, there's plenty of capital flowing in.

0:10:07.640 --> 0:10:10.240
<v Speaker 4>We know that, especially from retail now, which is a

0:10:10.240 --> 0:10:12.280
<v Speaker 4>new buyer base. I do want to go around the

0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:14.079
<v Speaker 4>world and I want to talk a little bit about China.

0:10:14.120 --> 0:10:16.600
<v Speaker 4>Of course, your views on China are well known, but

0:10:16.679 --> 0:10:19.280
<v Speaker 4>you've seen this chorus of cell side analysts come out

0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:22.000
<v Speaker 4>and talk about China in a bullish light. You think

0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:25.160
<v Speaker 4>about City just this week downgrading US stocks, saying to

0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:27.559
<v Speaker 4>basically upgrade and buy China.

0:10:27.640 --> 0:10:30.040
<v Speaker 5>I'm just wondering what you make of that in this cycle.

0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:34.960
<v Speaker 1>Well, everybody's got to sell a growth narrative, right, so,

0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:37.719
<v Speaker 1>you know, China's been this. I mean, there's so much

0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:40.760
<v Speaker 1>muscle memory, you know, for the past couple decades of

0:10:40.800 --> 0:10:44.120
<v Speaker 1>selling the China growth narrative that I'm not surprised everybody's

0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:46.839
<v Speaker 1>going back to that and they're willing to forget all

0:10:46.880 --> 0:10:50.200
<v Speaker 1>of the political risk that Chijinping presents and how he's

0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:54.760
<v Speaker 1>basically zeroed out. You know, several classes of public company

0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:58.199
<v Speaker 1>shares in the past, such as for profit education, are

0:10:58.240 --> 0:11:02.480
<v Speaker 1>close to zero did out. Look, it's you know, China

0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:05.160
<v Speaker 1>is a trade, it's not an investment. You date China.

0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:07.440
<v Speaker 1>You don't marry China, like I get it. If from

0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:12.160
<v Speaker 1>a tactical perspective you want to allocate money there, fine,

0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:14.600
<v Speaker 1>but I but that's the kind of place you wake

0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:17.680
<v Speaker 1>up one morning and you know they invaded Taiwan and

0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:20.360
<v Speaker 1>maybe the US is going to war over that, and

0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:22.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, basically you don't want to be long anything

0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:25.360
<v Speaker 1>China related at that point in time. So I think

0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:29.400
<v Speaker 1>everybody who's rushing in headlong needs to be aware of

0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:32.040
<v Speaker 1>those risks and needs to have eyes wide open. This

0:11:32.120 --> 0:11:34.720
<v Speaker 1>is not China is not marriage material.

0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:40.320
<v Speaker 6>Carson, you married Vietnam. You're I guess considering an engagement

0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:41.839
<v Speaker 6>with India.

0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:43.800
<v Speaker 3>I want to talk about your longs.

0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:49.000
<v Speaker 6>You mentioned the possibility of war, which seems more likely

0:11:49.120 --> 0:11:51.960
<v Speaker 6>now than it has in decades. I mean, we're seeing

0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:56.280
<v Speaker 6>a war in the eastern theater of Europe, and Ryan

0:11:56.360 --> 0:12:00.000
<v Speaker 6>Mattu came out this morning and said they see defense

0:12:00.200 --> 0:12:04.640
<v Speaker 6>sales surging forty percent on the European spending boom that's expected.

0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:06.800
<v Speaker 6>Is that you think one of the most important long

0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:08.720
<v Speaker 6>threads for investors to pay attention.

0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:13.800
<v Speaker 1>To European defense spending well in general, war, you know,

0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:19.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean spending around the worldely. Well, look from from

0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:23.679
<v Speaker 1>a defense spending perspective, that's you know that that one's

0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:26.319
<v Speaker 1>above my pay grade. But the geopolitical risks and the

0:12:26.400 --> 0:12:31.160
<v Speaker 1>risks of war absolutely, you know, I don't know that

0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:34.280
<v Speaker 1>Russia is in a position to make further moves in

0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:38.120
<v Speaker 1>Europe in the next few years. But you know, what

0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:41.600
<v Speaker 1>we're doing with Ukraine and basically rewarding Russia, I think

0:12:41.640 --> 0:12:42.559
<v Speaker 1>that leaves a.

0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:44.880
<v Speaker 3>Lot of powder in that powder keg.

0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:49.920
<v Speaker 1>Obviously, the situation with Taiwan, I don't know that we're

0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:53.960
<v Speaker 1>doing anything right now to dissuade Chinese aggression against Taiwan.

0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:59.160
<v Speaker 1>You know, Iran has been I think beaten back nicely

0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:02.040
<v Speaker 1>by the Israelis recently, but they're probably not going to

0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:05.000
<v Speaker 1>go quietly into that good night. So yeah, this is

0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:08.520
<v Speaker 1>a world that has a lot of risks of real

0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:11.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, of expansion of kinetic war. So you know,

0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:15.440
<v Speaker 1>and in valuations just generally don't seem to recognize that

0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:19.200
<v Speaker 1>because risk is massively underpriced, as it has been since

0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:19.760
<v Speaker 1>the GFC.

0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.280
<v Speaker 4>Carson, I'm devastated to say, if we have to leave

0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:24.360
<v Speaker 4>it there, I hope to speak to.

0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:24.880
<v Speaker 5>You again soon.

0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:27.640
<v Speaker 4>Really enjoyed this conversation. Hope to see you in studio

0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:30.520
<v Speaker 4>next time too. That is Carson Block of Muddy Waters

0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:30.920
<v Speaker 4>Capital