1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,440 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go. 3 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: Throwing in Joe. I'm saying it's a cash touchdown. 4 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:18,759 Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, but 5 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 2: they go to win. 6 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 1: That's incredible. 7 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. 8 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 1: I like to make money. All right, this is the 9 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 1: ultimate kabine. 10 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:33,880 Speaker 2: You want to pull, and we are underway. 11 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, brought to you by 12 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 1: Fan Duel. I'm your host today, Brendan glas Sheen, as 13 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: we begin another glorious NFL season next Thursday, Rams Bills 14 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 1: in La. I'm sure most of our listeners out there 15 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: you're gonna participate in one or two or twenty NFL 16 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: pools over the course of the season, pick'em pools, survivor pools, 17 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: whatever the case may be. NFL pools incredibly popular and 18 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: they're an easy way to stay invested during the season. 19 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:07,320 Speaker 1: That's why today we're delighted to welcome in two experts 20 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 1: in the field of NFL pool strategy. First, we have 21 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 1: Travis Reed, a CAG silverback veteran here at Action Network 22 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 1: who creates some of our best content when it comes 23 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 1: to pools. Travis, welcome, Why don't you give the folks 24 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 1: at home an understanding of what you're all about. 25 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:22,399 Speaker 2: Thanks Brendan. 26 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 1: Yeah. 27 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 3: I've been with Action Network since its inception, before that 28 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 3: is with Sports Insights, been interested in sports betting for 29 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 3: fifteen plus years. Love that intersection between sports and numbers. 30 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 3: These prize pools are just huge now. I think it's 31 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 3: a great way to play a fun game that even 32 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 3: a novice can play all the way to We're going 33 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 3: to give you some of these advanced kind of ways 34 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 3: how to play this a correct way. 35 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 1: Love it. And next up we have Jason Lisk who 36 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: joins us from Pool Genius that's become the top rated 37 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 1: source for algorithmic NFL pool picks and strategy. Action Network 38 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: is joining forces with pool Genius for Survivor and Pick 39 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 1: and Pool contests because they offer the most in depth, 40 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 1: customizable NFL pool advice our team has found anywhere. Jason, welcome. 41 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 1: Why don't you tell us a little bit about what 42 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: makes Pool Genius stand apart when it comes to NFL pools. 43 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 2: Absolutely. I've also been huge into pools for as long 44 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 2: as I can remember. I got in doing some analysis 45 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 2: with Pro Football Reference back in the day. If you're 46 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 2: familiar with the website team rankings. Pool Genius is the 47 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 2: brand associated with the pool products with team rankings. We 48 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 2: have a couple of products that are relevant for football season. 49 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 2: We have the NFL Survivor Picks product, and we have 50 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 2: the Football Pick and Picks product. Survivor Pick obviously specific 51 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 2: to survivor pools, but gives you customized picks for up 52 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 2: to thirty picks. That's not entries, that's thirty picks, multiple 53 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 2: pick weeks, et cetera. But as long as you have 54 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 2: thirty live picks, you can get up to that MANI. 55 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 2: We also have other tools like season planner tools, optimal 56 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 2: path and ev calculator tools for your survivor pool needs. 57 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 2: And then there's the Pick and Picks product, which gets 58 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 2: into things like spread versus game winner. Confidence pools are 59 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 2: not confidence, all sorts of different types of football pools, 60 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 2: and you can set up any number of pools there 61 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 2: and get customized advice on how to win each. 62 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,359 Speaker 1: Well. We really enjoy having you back and look forward 63 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 1: to today's episode. For any listeners looking for an advantage 64 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 1: of this season. You can access a free trial of 65 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: pool Genius for NFL Week one by heading to Poolgenius 66 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 1: dot Com slash Action, where you can also receive up 67 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 1: to fifty five percent off a season subscription. Again, that's 68 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 1: Poolgenius dot Com slash Action, or just follow the link 69 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: in this episode's description. Alrighty, let's get into the good 70 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: stuff gents. Today, we're going to discuss the two most 71 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: popular types of NFL pools. You've got Survivor pools and 72 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 1: pick and pools. We'll start with Survivor from a data perspective, Jason, 73 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 1: what are the most important components to consider before selecting 74 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 1: your Survivor pool pick? How do you assign value with 75 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 1: survivor pools? 76 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 2: There's really three key things you need to think about 77 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 2: if you're going to attack survivor pools in an objective 78 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 2: strategic way. You need to think about your win odds 79 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 2: or safety or the odds your pick loses, or however 80 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 2: you want to phrase it. You need to think though 81 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 2: about your reward, which is really measured in the popularity 82 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 2: or lack of popularity of your pick versus the rest 83 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 2: of the teams people could pick. Because you only win 84 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 2: when others lose, It's a zero sum game, and so 85 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 2: you really need to think beyond your own pick. And 86 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 2: what others are doing. And so that's the second element, 87 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 2: is what others are doing. And then the third element 88 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,159 Speaker 2: is what's going to happen in the future, because making 89 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,799 Speaker 2: a good pick now might hurt you in the future 90 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 2: if the pick is even better, If say the Bills 91 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 2: are great to have in the second half of the season, 92 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 2: using them in week four maybe a poor strategic move, 93 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:42,239 Speaker 2: even if it helps you advance. 94 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,719 Speaker 1: Now, Travis, how about yourself as signing value out of 95 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 1: the gate? What's the strategy? 96 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 3: The key thing you want to do is always gain 97 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 3: equity in your pool each and every week. A lot 98 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 3: of people just think it's a surviving advanced type thing. 99 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 3: Pick the team most likely to win. But if you're 100 00:04:57,279 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 3: starting in week one, what's the best way to win? 101 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 3: You're if you're trying to maximize that you want to 102 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 3: hopefully win with the worst team possible while the maximum 103 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 3: number of your opponents lose. And really that's what you're 104 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:10,919 Speaker 3: trying to do each and every week. Now, it's a 105 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 3: tricky puzzle. Like Jason, there's a lot of different pieces 106 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 3: of that, but really, instead of just trying to win 107 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 3: that week, try to gain equity each week. And I 108 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:20,919 Speaker 3: think if people do that, they'll kind of think of 109 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 3: it in a different way. And that's really I think 110 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 3: the best way to win your survivor pool. 111 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 1: So how much can the specific rules of a given 112 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: survivor pool impact the value of a pick? And I 113 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 1: know that really that's a giant question because but trying 114 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 1: to trying to look at it, if you just generically speaking, 115 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,919 Speaker 1: if just going off of what most pools or survivor 116 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: pools are typically constructed as, what are some important rules 117 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 1: to be aware of? And I know something that often 118 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 1: comes up early often is tie breakers too, Jason, the. 119 00:05:57,200 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 2: Rules do absolutely matter in a survivor pol You're gonna 120 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 2: there's a different strategy in say a pool with twenty 121 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,599 Speaker 2: of your friends than you are to win, for example, 122 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 2: a one hundred dollars entry that's going to have thousands 123 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,280 Speaker 2: of people. You're gonna want to play that differently. Some 124 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 2: of the different variations of rules that come up that 125 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,360 Speaker 2: you want to play strategically. Multipicks is the big one. 126 00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 2: We see some pools add in weeks where you have 127 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 2: to pick more than one team. That's a huge factor. 128 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 2: If you have that, you really have to plan those 129 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 2: teams out, for example, and so that's one strikes buybacks. 130 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:31,719 Speaker 2: Those are cases where you can take a loss and 131 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 2: stay in the contest, or you can take a loss 132 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 2: and pay more to get back into it, And in 133 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 2: those cases you have different risk profiles than you would 134 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,040 Speaker 2: in just a pool where that's not the case. So 135 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:45,279 Speaker 2: all of those factors come in to dictate how much 136 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 2: risk you take, how safe you need to be all 137 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,599 Speaker 2: that stuff. Every single year, in the last decade that 138 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 2: we have public pick data, over half of all entries 139 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 2: are gone by week four. By the end of week 140 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 2: four every year, there hasn't been a year where it's 141 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 2: been over fifty percent. To make it twenty people, you're 142 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:03,840 Speaker 2: going to be under ten within four or five weeks, 143 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 2: so you don't have to plan to be as strong 144 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 2: in weeks eleven, twelve, thirteen with twenty people. If you're 145 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 2: playing in a two thousand person field, you really got 146 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 2: to think, how am I getting to week eighteen? How 147 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 2: am I getting to week eighteen with a pick that 148 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 2: matters that's gonna win me when everybody else is on 149 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 2: the sixty percent favorite because that's all they got left, 150 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 2: How am I going to beat them? That's a big 151 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:27,120 Speaker 2: strategic difference. 152 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: Makes sense. I mean, and you're speaking to probably people 153 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 1: that relate exactly to what you're talking about as it 154 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 1: pertains to the smaller groups. Travis, do you have some 155 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: rules of thumb as well that you're keen on. 156 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 3: I think another one that you want to take into 157 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 3: account is the buy in and how many times you 158 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 3: can multi enter a contest. If you have one hundred 159 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 3: bucks to spend on this, instead of entering one contest 160 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 3: that cost one hundred that other people can enter ten times, 161 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 3: do a ten dollars contest that you can enter ten times. 162 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 3: Because anytime you're entering wants, somebody else has ten shit it, 163 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 3: they're going to have a much better chance to reach 164 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 3: the end. And that allows you to spread out your variants. 165 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 3: You don't have to use all ten picks on the 166 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 3: same team. You can spread those teams out, and like 167 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 3: Jason said, half of those entries are probably dead by 168 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 3: week four, but you have another five that you can 169 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 3: still play with. So going down a level in how 170 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 3: much you're spending and getting multi entered is a much 171 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 3: better strategy than just spending it all on one. 172 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 1: Here's the elephant in the room. We know when you 173 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: enter any kind of pool there's risk, it's high risk, right, 174 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 1: But what folks are wondering, and maybe someone that's tuning 175 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 1: in wants to get into survivor pool for the first time, 176 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: what's the right time to make risk of your decisions. 177 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:43,439 Speaker 1: I'm sure both of you can use historical references based 178 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: on your experience as examples. That's to be a huge, 179 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: a huge question. 180 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,720 Speaker 2: I'm assuming when we're talking risk here, we're talking immediate risk. 181 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,080 Speaker 2: This week, I'm taking a team. It's a five point 182 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 2: favorite instead of a ten point favorite, right, which obviously 183 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 2: is increasing your risk when you would want to do 184 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,240 Speaker 2: those things, Typically it could be earlier in the year 185 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 2: because that's when most people are more conservative because they 186 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 2: have everybody available. But that's not always the case, but 187 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 2: that's a general rule. Travis referenced equity earlier. It's the 188 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 2: same concept that we call expected value, right, same thing, 189 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 2: When are you getting equity? When are you increasing your 190 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 2: expected value? You do that when you take on more risk, 191 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,440 Speaker 2: when you get one of two things. Either you've got 192 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 2: a lot of people concentrate on one or two teams where 193 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 2: the payoff is huge if that result hits. So let's 194 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:35,959 Speaker 2: say there's an eighty percent favorite that fifty percent of 195 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 2: the pools on right half the pools. On this eighty 196 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 2: percent favorite, you're taking on maybe a seventy percent team 197 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 2: that nobody's picking maybe five percent of the pool. Well, 198 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 2: that's a huge payoff for one and a half times 199 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 2: as the risk. You're probably increasing your equity in that case, 200 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:54,199 Speaker 2: you're expected value. That's one case when the payoff is huge. 201 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:58,439 Speaker 2: The other case is when you can save a good 202 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:01,199 Speaker 2: team for a big payof in the future. You make 203 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 2: a pick knowing, man, I'm gonna be on the wrong 204 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 2: end of this week. I'm a little riskier, but I'm 205 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 2: saving this team when I can point to this year, 206 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 2: the Chargers in Week three probably going to be the 207 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 2: biggest favorite of the week against Houston. That's a week 208 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 2: that otherwise looks fairly flat right now, so they're gonna 209 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 2: be really popular, just knowing how people pick in the 210 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 2: first month of the season when that presents itself. But 211 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 2: because everybody picks them, you're going to maybe have better 212 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 2: equity long term in the contest if you say them, 213 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 2: because then you can hammer people when nobody else can 214 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:35,199 Speaker 2: pick them later on. 215 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 1: You know, it's funny you bring that up too, because Houston, 216 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 1: for example, you get them week one, they play home 217 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 1: against Indy, and we saw what Houston did last year 218 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 1: in Week one, totally stunning us. And granted the Jaguars 219 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:48,599 Speaker 1: are not anything special urban Meyer, we found out it 220 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 1: was a freaking train wreck, but the Texans beat the 221 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: Jaguars rather handedly. Looking at the Texans this year, they 222 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 1: play home Indy. As I mentioned, then they play out Denver, 223 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 1: but a lot of folks could pick Denver week one 224 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:04,199 Speaker 1: when Russell Wilson plays a really crappy Seattle team. Man, 225 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 1: you two already have my mind spinning. Travis, what do 226 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 1: you What do you have for us in terms of 227 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:10,959 Speaker 1: the right time to make risky choices? 228 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 3: First of all, Colleen urban Meyer train wreck is an 229 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 3: insult to all train wrecks. But if you're in a 230 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:19,080 Speaker 3: large pool, I think every week is a good time 231 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 3: to get risky, especially early, like Jason said, because like 232 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 3: I said, it's not just fading teams, but you're also 233 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 3: taking teams that nobody else is taking, and it just 234 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 3: puts you on a different path throughout the rest of 235 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 3: the season. So not only are you being contrarian early, 236 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 3: but it lets you be contrarian. Week six week eight, 237 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:40,080 Speaker 3: Week ten, if you know, assume you keep make it, 238 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:43,680 Speaker 3: you can basically just kind of snowball that equity as 239 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 3: each week goes along. So now, like we said, if 240 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 3: you're in a group of twenty friends, you could probably 241 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 3: play it pretty safe again, just to avoid those huge favorites. 242 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 3: Like when there's a team that's a fourteen point favorite 243 00:11:56,400 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 3: and all your buddies are on them, just take somebody else. 244 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 3: You can even take the second biggest favorite. Maybe it's 245 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:04,200 Speaker 3: just you know, you and another guy, but that's just 246 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 3: that's just always a better play because if you do 247 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:09,959 Speaker 3: get that stunning upset, you know, then your only head 248 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 3: to head to win the whole thing. 249 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 2: It's important to actually look at the data and the 250 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 2: pick data. That's one thing we have is public pick popularity, 251 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 2: so we can see when teams are popular week one, 252 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 2: for example, there's no really popular team right. 253 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 1: Now, those spreads kind of indicate that, right yeah, there's 254 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 1: probably a bunch of so actually getting super risky and 255 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:29,959 Speaker 1: taking Like we were talking about risky teams, I want 256 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 1: to say what those are. 257 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 2: You don't have to take underdogs in survival Bulls. You 258 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:37,440 Speaker 2: might take like a sixty five to seventy percent team 259 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:40,319 Speaker 2: like a six point favorite instead of the double digit favorite. 260 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 2: But you don't have to be taking pick homs and underdogs. 261 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 2: But in week one, there's no huge spread this year, 262 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:48,320 Speaker 2: and right now, according to our data, there's no team 263 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 2: being picked by over twenty percent of the public, So 264 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 2: there's really no like huge upside to getting to taking 265 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 2: like a three point favorite in week one. You're probably 266 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 2: better off taking one of those teams and playing against 267 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 2: one of the others and making your decision and stand 268 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 2: honestly in week one. 269 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:06,560 Speaker 3: Week one is a good example to look at future 270 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 3: value this year. Granted week ones when we know the 271 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 3: least about these teams like Baltimore. I think Baltimore is 272 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 3: going to be a pretty good team. So even though 273 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 3: if they are dead even and expected value, just looking 274 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 3: at this week, you know, looking at future value for 275 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 3: some of these teams, I'd rather take one of these 276 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 3: teams that you know doesn't have as high as a 277 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 3: win total that maybe can still squeak through in the 278 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 3: first week. 279 00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 1: Okay, So Travis, I like the direction you just headed 280 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:33,839 Speaker 1: because it kind of relates to the next talking point 281 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:39,200 Speaker 1: here as far as what's the typical pool behavior. Over time, 282 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:43,319 Speaker 1: and it's hard understandably, everybody's like this, We're so focused 283 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 1: on week one and then we just have to see 284 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 1: it for ourselves to then digest through Monday night week 285 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 1: one to then let our brains shift to week two. 286 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: And everyone overreacts to what might be a hectic week one. 287 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 1: It probably will be because we're all so freaking excited. 288 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 1: So Jason will go to you first. What have you 289 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 1: noticed changes over time with typical behavior during pool season, 290 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 1: if you will. 291 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 2: If you're talking year to year. I think in Survivor 292 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 2: we have seen maybe slightly sharpening of players over the 293 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 2: last decade. Slightly, I mean I use that. I think 294 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 2: most people still play the typical Survivor pool player, and 295 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 2: why you can gain edge on them is because they 296 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 2: think only about their pick. I still think that's the majority. 297 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 2: I do think data and the ability to do more 298 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 2: research has improved kind of the upper Survivor pool players. 299 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 2: So that's one thing within a season, you know, I 300 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 2: don't know that I see much change during that season. Uh, 301 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 2: you're gonna want to focus on your specific pool, by 302 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:53,280 Speaker 2: the way, I like, if you know your friends or 303 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 2: if you're in a large pool, see how they're picking, like, 304 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 2: look at the public data, but then see what earpool 305 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 2: does and adjust off of it, because reacting to what 306 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 2: your pool does is probably the most important when we're 307 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:09,280 Speaker 2: not sure. Using public data as a pretty good like substitute. 308 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 1: Travis any final thoughts on Survivor pools and kind of 309 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 1: off what Jason just talked about behavior, which again that's 310 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:18,880 Speaker 1: a hard one to gauge. I think still right. 311 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I still even just writing articles last year, you 312 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 3: get feedback of oh, I'm never taking teams on the road, 313 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 3: or I'm never I'm never taking the Thursday game. They 314 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 3: just make up these rules that are kind of arbitrary 315 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 3: with no like data behind them. But I still see 316 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 3: that a lot, And maybe that's just you know, Twitter 317 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 3: being Twitter, But yeah, I think a lot of people 318 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 3: are really just focused on maybe this week and maybe 319 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 3: next week. But I think the big thing is what 320 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:45,480 Speaker 3: Jason's that. 321 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 2: I agree with him. 322 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 3: They're just not thinking about what everyone else is doing 323 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 3: in their pool. It's just okay, what's my best pick 324 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 3: this week? 325 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 1: Jason Final thoughts. 326 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean follow up just real quick on Travis. 327 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 2: I concur in fact, it's not just Twitter. People like 328 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 2: to avoid road teams they like to avoid division matchups. 329 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 2: They haven't convinced in their head that somehow the betting 330 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 2: markets don't aren't aware that games are played on the 331 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 2: road or against division opponents, Like, that's not part of 332 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 2: the line. You should not think that a four point 333 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 2: non division game is a better favorite than a seven 334 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 2: point division game, because that's not the case. So you 335 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 2: can look at the data, go study the data. I 336 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 2: mean it's there. Thursday games huge value plays. Obviously, the 337 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 2: risk of a Thursday pick in some Survivor pools is 338 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 2: you lock yourself out a line movement is something good 339 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 2: happens between that and Sunday morning. But Thursday's another value opportunity, 340 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 2: as Travis mentioned. So yeah, all those things are things 341 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 2: that I think typical Survivor players have biases toward and 342 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 2: give you value if you can just go with kind 343 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 2: of logic and numbers. 344 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 1: And just off the top of my head too. You 345 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 1: make a great point, like the Chiefs are a very 346 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 1: public team to pick in a parlay because of the 347 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: popularity of their weapons. I'm really talking about last year's team, 348 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 1: But they survive Week one and then it's built into 349 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,640 Speaker 1: the line when they play a team like Baltimore and 350 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 1: the Chargers early in the season, and that's when they 351 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:08,880 Speaker 1: started one and two and everyone you know it even 352 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 1: they started two and three also when you add it 353 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 1: all up now onto Sleeper. Sleeper is the fastest growing 354 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:20,640 Speaker 1: fantasy platform today with millions of players. 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Then choose the 363 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,680 Speaker 1: amount of money you want to enter into the contest. 364 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 1: If you pick correctly, you can win anywhere from two 365 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,119 Speaker 1: times to over twenty times the money you put in. 366 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 1: The main reason I'm excited about over under on Sleeper 367 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 1: is that it's the only appe I can join my 368 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 1: friends contests and play together. It's got a built in 369 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:06,320 Speaker 1: group chat where I can see and copy my group 370 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,679 Speaker 1: picks with the tap of a button. Along with the 371 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:12,719 Speaker 1: over under integrated into the fantasy experience itself. It's insanely 372 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 1: fun to write it out together. 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We transition now 381 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,919 Speaker 1: from Survivor Pools to Pick Them Pools, one of the 382 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 1: popular pick and pool varieties that are styled after Westgates 383 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 1: Super Contest. Participants pay an entry fee and then pick 384 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:58,679 Speaker 1: five games against the spread each week. So this is 385 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 1: why we talk spread a little bit in Survivor. It 386 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 1: really is a factor here in the Pick and Pools. 387 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 1: We've seen versions of this copied and adjusted by a 388 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,640 Speaker 1: few other US sports books, but the allure is pretty clear. 389 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: All you have to do, all you have to do, 390 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 1: if I could really go to anything in life, all 391 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 1: you have to do is pick five games per week 392 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 1: from start to finish, the greatest NFL betting season of 393 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 1: your life, win a million bucks. It sounds so freaking easy. 394 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 1: Jason explained the basics of pick'm pool strategy, big differences 395 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 1: between a novice better or a novice pick'm pol person 396 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 1: versus a professional grade person over the course of his season. 397 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,159 Speaker 2: We kind of touched it on when talking about the 398 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 2: Survivor pools, but the same concept still applies to other 399 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,400 Speaker 2: football pools like pick'm pools, where you're whether you're picking 400 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:47,080 Speaker 2: sixteen games or five against the spread or whatever. Most 401 00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 2: people think about they just look down the list, who 402 00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 2: do I think will win? That's the worst way to 403 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 2: do it. If you want to do it that way, 404 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 2: just go bet. You can get the line you want 405 00:19:56,119 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 2: and what happens only impacts you. But to win a content, 406 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,480 Speaker 2: you're playing against people. You're playing against other people with flaws, 407 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 2: and so you have to think about how people behave. 408 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 2: You're not in a handicapping contest when you're in the 409 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 2: Westgate super Book or your local pick five league. You're 410 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:15,960 Speaker 2: in a contest to see who can get the best 411 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:20,119 Speaker 2: equity and make the highest value picks, and part of 412 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,600 Speaker 2: that involves thinking about how other people are going to pick. 413 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 2: You want to take on popular picks when there's leverage there. 414 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,240 Speaker 2: When people are not paying attention to the three point 415 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,679 Speaker 2: dog and only five percent are picking him, that's a 416 00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:35,119 Speaker 2: pick you should want because if they succeed, you're going 417 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 2: to move against a large percentage of the field anyway, 418 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 2: that's the biggest factor how other people pick. You need 419 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 2: to think about it. 420 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: Great time to remind people at home. If you do 421 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,440 Speaker 1: not have a pro account with Action Network, you can 422 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 1: look and see where the money is right, where the 423 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 1: money's coming in, percentage of the bets, percentage of the 424 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 1: money coming in on a certain game. Always a nifty 425 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 1: tool to help you gauge some of the things Jason's 426 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,440 Speaker 1: talking about. Travis, how would you respond as far as 427 00:20:58,720 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 1: the approach to pick and pull? 428 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, we're in lockstep agreement on this one as well. 429 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 3: There's a big difference between having more points or getting 430 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 3: more correct than your opponents versus getting the most correct, 431 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,400 Speaker 3: And I think trying to have people think that way 432 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,160 Speaker 3: is pretty difficult because they seem like they're the same thing. Well, 433 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 3: if I just get the most right, then I'll win. 434 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,200 Speaker 3: But it's just really hard, Like if you've ever done it, 435 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,160 Speaker 3: just pick five games. It's hard to win them all, 436 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 3: especially with the way a lot of them are set 437 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 3: up with stale lines. You know, you'll see line movement 438 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 3: and then everyone wants to jump on. Oh, I'm getting 439 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,199 Speaker 3: a free point and a half of line movement. You 440 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 3: don't even have to take the team they're going against, 441 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 3: just avoid that team. So yeah, just it's more of 442 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 3: a human behavior type game theory than it is just Okay, 443 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,800 Speaker 3: what's the best picks, here's the lines. So it's a 444 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,120 Speaker 3: much different game than I think most people perceive it as. 445 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 2: You just got to pay attention to the pick popularity. 446 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 2: Don't assume you know how people are going to pick. 447 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 2: Like you mentioned Houston, I would say most public picks 448 00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 2: are favorites, right, But that's a case where it's not right. 449 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,920 Speaker 2: So look at the actual data. Don't assume the three 450 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 2: point favorites are going to be all the most popular. 451 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 2: See what people are actually picking. Sometimes it's you can't 452 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 2: predict what people like, what people are going to think. 453 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 2: I can point to some things that people have biases 454 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 2: on recent performance the week before. You can bet that 455 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 2: if a team blew somebody out, they're going to get 456 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 2: a large percentage. But all that stuff, you know, check 457 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 2: the actual numbers because sometimes they surprise you and go 458 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 2: with the numbers, and. 459 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,479 Speaker 1: Some folks might look at it and go, Yes, that 460 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 1: team's getting eight and a half points. No one else 461 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 1: is getting more than them. I like that. I want 462 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,920 Speaker 1: to start with a lead, more than a touchdown lead 463 00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 1: in the in the first quarter. We've certainly seen participation 464 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 1: in pick and polls. Some of the biggest pick and 465 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 1: polls explode over the last decade do in part to 466 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,520 Speaker 1: Action Network content Boss. You can find them on the 467 00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:53,200 Speaker 1: Favorites pod Chad Millman from his time at ESPN. But 468 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 1: outside of popularity, Jason, have you noticed any changes in 469 00:22:56,560 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 1: how participants make selections in these super contest style pick 470 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 1: and pulls? 471 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 2: No, not that much. I do think you're getting an 472 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 2: influx of people because it's popularity and it has increased, 473 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,680 Speaker 2: and so that may decrease what other people have done. 474 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 2: But if you look at the super contest I went 475 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 2: back and looked the most popular picks of barely cleared 476 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 2: fifty percent back in twenty thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, sixteen, and 477 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,119 Speaker 2: also last year. I think they were slightly under and 478 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 2: so I'm not sure that the group is a large 479 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,920 Speaker 2: has gotten sharper, and I think that it's also because, 480 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,919 Speaker 2: like we said, I'm not sure that most people are 481 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 2: playing the game they think they're playing. It's not a 482 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 2: strict handicapping contest. It's where can I leverage against the 483 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 2: other handicappers where they have biases that I can then 484 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 2: pick against that and shoot up the standings if I'm right, 485 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,639 Speaker 2: because you're most likely going to lose those contests. You 486 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 2: want to hit the nuts when you get it right. 487 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,639 Speaker 2: When you get it right, you want to shoot up 488 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 2: the standings, and you want to find the set of 489 00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 2: outcomes that get you to first place. 490 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,399 Speaker 1: So, Travis, we give all this advice on approach, but 491 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,720 Speaker 1: try to now, as we did in the Survivor discussion, 492 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 1: take us inside the brain of a participant. What types 493 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 1: of changes have you noticed, if any. 494 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 3: I still think most people are going to go into 495 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,680 Speaker 3: that just trying to pick their five picks every week 496 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 3: and try to go four and one or five and zero, 497 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,919 Speaker 3: not realizing that there's a different way to think about it, 498 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 3: and like you said, looking at the pick percentages, trying 499 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 3: to figure out what other people are doing, trying to 500 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,359 Speaker 3: put a value. Okay, if I picked this team, how 501 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,000 Speaker 3: much more would I move up versus if I pick 502 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:36,879 Speaker 3: this team, Especially later in the season, if you're behind 503 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 3: in the standings, you may actually want to go against 504 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:42,639 Speaker 3: some of those line moves. You know you have a 505 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,280 Speaker 3: quarterback that's out, you know there's a three point line move, 506 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,679 Speaker 3: you know all the field's going to be, you know, 507 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,720 Speaker 3: taking that favorite. You might just take the other side. 508 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 3: Even though in itself, if that bet would be really 509 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 3: bad to make, if you just went to FanDuel and 510 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,240 Speaker 3: made that bet, it would be bad. In this pool, 511 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,200 Speaker 3: it would actually be a good bet because that's the 512 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 3: only way to gain ground back on the field since 513 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:02,920 Speaker 3: you've lost them. 514 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 1: Jason Lisk final thoughts for us before we send you off. 515 00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 2: I just want to leave you with this. It's hard 516 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,680 Speaker 2: to win pools, even if you're good at It's hard 517 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 2: to win pools, especially if you're winning to win lots 518 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:15,679 Speaker 2: of money, Like you're entering pools where you may have 519 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 2: a one percent chance or less to win it. Right, 520 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 2: So use good strategies, but also play different contests, find 521 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 2: different outs, play multiple entries, do things to diversify your portfolio. 522 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 2: So if you're successful in one type of pool. Maybe 523 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,360 Speaker 2: maybe you had an off y or another, but you're 524 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 2: gonna still turn a profit because it can be hard 525 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 2: to win pools and we don't have fifty years of 526 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,160 Speaker 2: our life to do it. So one way to increase 527 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,879 Speaker 2: your shots is to play in a lot of different 528 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:47,639 Speaker 2: pools and in there lots of entries. 529 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:49,760 Speaker 1: Travis, any closing thoughts. 530 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 3: Oh, you're not going to get any disagreement. Play as 531 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,359 Speaker 3: many as you can afford to play. 532 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 2: Yeah. 533 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,040 Speaker 3: I would just encourage people to think about these games 534 00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 3: in a different way than just as straightforward as is. 535 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,640 Speaker 3: Play these games for free and just see how hard 536 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 3: they are. If you're not sure, play it one year, 537 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 3: just kind of go through, Okay, what if I was 538 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,359 Speaker 3: doing this? What if I were doing that? And then 539 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:12,199 Speaker 3: maybe next year you're ready to take the lead. But 540 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,360 Speaker 3: look into the game theory behind these games that look 541 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 3: really simple on the outside but are really fun and 542 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 3: complex once you get into them. 543 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:23,479 Speaker 1: Action Network veteran Travis Reed and also thanks to Jason 544 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 1: Lisk who joins us from pool Genius and team rankings, 545 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,639 Speaker 1: pool Genius has become the top rated source for algorithmic 546 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 1: NFL pool picks and strategy great stuff from both of you. 547 00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,119 Speaker 1: Really appreciate the time, looking forward to a fun year again. 548 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,639 Speaker 1: For any listeners looking for an advantage in their pools 549 00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:41,640 Speaker 1: this season, you can access a free trial of Pool 550 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 1: Genius for NFL Week one by heading to Poolgenius dot 551 00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,879 Speaker 1: com slash action, where you can also receive up to 552 00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 1: fifty five percent off season subscription. Again, that's pull Genius 553 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,439 Speaker 1: dot com slash Action, or just follow the link in 554 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 1: this episode's description. Coming up on the Action Network Podcast 555 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:04,040 Speaker 1: later this week, our final UFC betting preview of the season, Seanzillo, 556 00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:07,359 Speaker 1: Billy Ward and I break down UFC Paris. That comes 557 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:09,880 Speaker 1: your way tomorrow, so be sure to join us. Then 558 00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,680 Speaker 1: next week we've got NFL Week one tons of great 559 00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 1: content starting with our NFL Season Leaders episode with Chris Raybam, 560 00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:20,880 Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson, and Jill Gallant dropping Monday morning to get 561 00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:23,880 Speaker 1: your labor day started for Jason Lisk, Travis Reed, Brendan 562 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:27,200 Speaker 1: glass Sheen. Thanks for listening, everybody. Best of luck pool 563 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,359 Speaker 1: season is here and we'll join you next time in 564 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:41,120 Speaker 1: the Action Network Podcast