1
00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

2
00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:05,359
Speaker 2: It's good.

3
00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:08,479
Speaker 1: Without further ado.

4
00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:10,920
Speaker 3: That's what the game's all about.

5
00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:16,320
Speaker 1: All of a sudden, you feel like you can't miss.

6
00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:20,880
Speaker 2: I'm gonna leave it up there. Make that if you

7
00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:23,040
Speaker 2: try that again, Absolutely.

8
00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:24,400
Speaker 4: Trying to.

9
00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:33,240
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network NBA Podcast NBA Finals Edition,

10
00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,599
Speaker 1: coming to you before game for recording this on Tuesday night.

11
00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:39,080
Speaker 1: If you wake up on Wednesday and someone's leg has

12
00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:41,319
Speaker 1: fallen off, we do not know about it as of yet.

13
00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:43,680
Speaker 1: Joining me as always Roheeen Palmer and Brandon Anderson. A

14
00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:47,240
Speaker 1: couple of reminders also, One, everything that we talk about

15
00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:49,680
Speaker 1: today you can find on the Action Network app. Is

16
00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:51,440
Speaker 1: the best way to track your picks. It's the best

17
00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,840
Speaker 1: way to get the update, information on where the money

18
00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,000
Speaker 1: is coming in, how the lines have moved, all that

19
00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:59,160
Speaker 1: information when our model says, plus you can get great

20
00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:03,360
Speaker 1: information all of our content and analysis, everything from Raheem

21
00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:05,520
Speaker 1: looking at historical data and the trends and what his

22
00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:08,959
Speaker 1: model says. To Brandon who wrote, I kid you not

23
00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:14,720
Speaker 1: like seventeen hundred words on all of the series' props

24
00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,000
Speaker 1: that are going to be completely outdated in two days,

25
00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,520
Speaker 1: because he's just that dedicated. You want to get in

26
00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:23,120
Speaker 1: on those bets before Game four. I'm gonna quibble with

27
00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:24,960
Speaker 1: some of them here on the podcast. You can find

28
00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:26,600
Speaker 1: that on the app. Make sure to check that out.

29
00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:28,679
Speaker 1: Reminder that all of the odds that we talk about

30
00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:32,200
Speaker 1: today are provided by bet MGM, the official odds provider

31
00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:35,800
Speaker 1: of the Action Network podcast. Also, if you're a fan

32
00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:37,880
Speaker 1: of this podcast, be sure to be on the lookout

33
00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,000
Speaker 1: in the next coming weeks is we're gonna be launching

34
00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,160
Speaker 1: an all NBA feed multiple times a week where I'm

35
00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:45,360
Speaker 1: going to drag Brandon and Raheem despite the fact that

36
00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:47,520
Speaker 1: they need a break from doing everything, I'll be dragging

37
00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,560
Speaker 1: them on as well as we'll have guests. We'll do

38
00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:52,720
Speaker 1: all other stuff. I am gonna tell you, guys, it's weird.

39
00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:54,920
Speaker 1: I'm so ready for the season to be done. I'm

40
00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,920
Speaker 1: so ready for an actual offseason. I'm also excited to

41
00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,360
Speaker 1: get into free agency and start looking at futures bets

42
00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:03,640
Speaker 1: for next year. I'm like starting to think about all

43
00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:05,520
Speaker 1: the ways that we can make money next year. So

44
00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:07,720
Speaker 1: I'm excited about all those. Make sure I do that.

45
00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:12,760
Speaker 1: But let's start today. Bucks win Game three. I did hedge.

46
00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:16,560
Speaker 1: I'm done with that. After the last game, I decided

47
00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:18,640
Speaker 1: that that was ultimately a bad move by me that

48
00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:22,160
Speaker 1: I got too rattled. I was too on till after

49
00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:24,960
Speaker 1: the game to shooting performance, and I should should have

50
00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:26,640
Speaker 1: simply said, like, look, there was probably gonna be a

51
00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:27,960
Speaker 1: game that the Bucks should have won, that they were

52
00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:30,360
Speaker 1: gonna lose at some point in this series, and that

53
00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:32,800
Speaker 1: was it, and should have stuck with my idea that

54
00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:34,959
Speaker 1: the Bucks were gonna win Game three. I don't know

55
00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,280
Speaker 1: about Game four. There's a lot of reasons to be

56
00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:41,600
Speaker 1: I think on a lot in multiple places with where

57
00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,440
Speaker 1: this series is. Rahiem, let's stack it in with you first,

58
00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:51,040
Speaker 1: for starters, do you think that there's any value to

59
00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:54,760
Speaker 1: be had playing any of the sides, props or angles,

60
00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:58,960
Speaker 1: or particularly on game four, like where if you were

61
00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:00,960
Speaker 1: putting money in, if you're planning on putting money in,

62
00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,359
Speaker 1: if you have put money in, where's the value?

63
00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:08,840
Speaker 4: Honestly, I'm struggling with the value, but at least for

64
00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:12,840
Speaker 4: Game four, but I think the value might be and

65
00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:16,320
Speaker 4: taking the Bucks to win this series. To me, they

66
00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:20,120
Speaker 4: did a lot of things that were sustainable and Phoenix

67
00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:23,000
Speaker 4: right now, it's I mean, for me, when I look

68
00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:25,760
Speaker 4: at this series. It comes down to whether Ayton can

69
00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:30,440
Speaker 4: stay on the floor. And Giannis is just taken over

70
00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:33,040
Speaker 4: and he's clearly the best player in this series. So

71
00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:38,280
Speaker 4: if he gets anything from Chris Middleton or Drew Holliday,

72
00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:41,520
Speaker 4: they can win every one of these games. Because you know,

73
00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:46,440
Speaker 4: the Sons are living on mid range jump shots and

74
00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,160
Speaker 4: Chris Paul and Devin Booker and that's a skill for them.

75
00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,640
Speaker 4: But the Bucks are getting to the lane at will,

76
00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:56,680
Speaker 4: I mean, and it's not just Giannis, so I think

77
00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:59,720
Speaker 4: every bit of that is sustainable. They could easily win

78
00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:05,680
Speaker 4: the next two games. I mean, I just right now.

79
00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:09,560
Speaker 4: I hate to overreact to one game, but the Bucks

80
00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:11,960
Speaker 4: look like their problem to take this series. And then

81
00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:15,880
Speaker 4: also one of the things that's interesting to me is

82
00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,720
Speaker 4: the scheduling. If this game had been tonight, I would

83
00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,839
Speaker 4: have felt a little different, But we got two days

84
00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:26,200
Speaker 4: off between each game, so the attrition on the Bucks

85
00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:28,920
Speaker 4: isn't as as deep as we thought it would be

86
00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:31,240
Speaker 4: with this you know, short roster.

87
00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:35,440
Speaker 1: I'm with you. So there's a bunch of stats I

88
00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:37,240
Speaker 1: found today when I started digging in, and I've got

89
00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:40,000
Speaker 1: two pieces up. One about where the bet. We'll talk

90
00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:41,520
Speaker 1: about that about where I think the value is. But

91
00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:43,240
Speaker 1: the other one is like a deep dive on like

92
00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:44,920
Speaker 1: where the series is at and things to think about.

93
00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:52,400
Speaker 1: Here's what's kind of surprising. The Bucks have a higher

94
00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:58,159
Speaker 1: expected shot quality through three games than the Suns. That

95
00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:04,479
Speaker 1: really surprised me that, honestly the Bus. So here's the one.

96
00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,000
Speaker 1: The Suns had the lowest expected shot quality of any

97
00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:12,040
Speaker 1: game in the series in game two and the highest actual,

98
00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:15,680
Speaker 1: So they literally had the worst expected outcome and the

99
00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:21,120
Speaker 1: best actual outcome so far in the series with Yannis

100
00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,840
Speaker 1: and Bobby Portis together, which is obviously working out. They're

101
00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:26,479
Speaker 1: doing that, They're trying to pair up those minutes in

102
00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:29,640
Speaker 1: a lot of the non eight minutes, the Bucks are

103
00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:33,719
Speaker 1: plus thirty five point nine, holding Phoenix to an eighty

104
00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:37,240
Speaker 1: five point four offensive efficiency and scoring one hundred and

105
00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,440
Speaker 1: twenty one themselves. They have a thirty two percent offensive

106
00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:44,000
Speaker 1: rebound rate and are averaging twenty five second chance points

107
00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,919
Speaker 1: for one hundred possessions. With Giannis and Portis on the

108
00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:52,400
Speaker 1: floor in this series, the Bucks through through three games

109
00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:54,920
Speaker 1: have an offensive rating of one to fourteen. The Suns

110
00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:57,080
Speaker 1: have an offensive rating of one to fourteen point three.

111
00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:04,480
Speaker 1: Like the Sun, I still think Game two is pivotal,

112
00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:07,320
Speaker 1: but I do think that a lot of things are

113
00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:12,080
Speaker 1: turning in the Bucks direction and Brandon at this point,

114
00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:14,719
Speaker 1: I'm sure that there are counters. I'm not sure how

115
00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:18,960
Speaker 1: many counters the Sons have left. Given the injury to

116
00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:23,280
Speaker 1: Dario Sarich, I don't know how many more adjustments they're

117
00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:24,960
Speaker 1: going to be able to make. I think at this

118
00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,560
Speaker 1: point it really is just going to be about can

119
00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,960
Speaker 1: they get a spectacular game from Devin Booker to assure

120
00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:32,640
Speaker 1: that there will at least be a game seven.

121
00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, we talk about, you know, what are the coaching

122
00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:42,280
Speaker 5: adjustments versus what are the actual rational coaching adjustments that

123
00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:46,640
Speaker 5: are going to happen. And sometimes we you know, we

124
00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:49,520
Speaker 5: we think that, okay, well this team should just do this,

125
00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,760
Speaker 5: that's easy, but they don't always do it. The problem

126
00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,599
Speaker 5: this time is what you're saying I agree with it,

127
00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:01,520
Speaker 5: which is I'm not sure what the adjustment is here

128
00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,920
Speaker 5: for Phoenix, Like I don't know what the move is

129
00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:10,440
Speaker 5: against against Yannis, like first place more down Drayton. Obviously

130
00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:14,200
Speaker 5: we know that, but you can't just do that. There's

131
00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,560
Speaker 5: only six fouls and he used him up real fast.

132
00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:20,840
Speaker 5: So hopefully that doesn't go so quickly in future game,

133
00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:25,720
Speaker 5: but they obviously need more minutes before the Before the series,

134
00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:29,480
Speaker 5: I wrote a piece ranking the importance of the players

135
00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:33,560
Speaker 5: from each team, and I talked with Matt before and

136
00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:37,040
Speaker 5: I initially had had down Drayton like seventh or eighth

137
00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:38,960
Speaker 5: on my list or something, and Matt you had him

138
00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:42,400
Speaker 5: like third. I feel like he's second, like Yiannis is

139
00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:44,960
Speaker 5: still number one, but he's like he's like one. Be

140
00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,680
Speaker 5: he's tied to Yannis and he's so important to what

141
00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,520
Speaker 5: they're doing right now. They got to have him out there,

142
00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,640
Speaker 5: so I guess there's that adjustment. I guess, you know,

143
00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:58,040
Speaker 5: give him all the minutes he can have, but beyond that,

144
00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:03,840
Speaker 5: you can't do anything schematically or with your plake Jay Crowder,

145
00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:07,120
Speaker 5: Cam Johnson, like mikel Bridges, they're doing all they can.

146
00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:11,680
Speaker 5: They're defending as well as they can. It's just Yannis

147
00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:14,320
Speaker 5: and when he's playing like this, I don't know what

148
00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:17,360
Speaker 5: the adjustment is like. It's not like you can just

149
00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:20,160
Speaker 5: hope for the shooting variants to even out. He's dunking

150
00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:24,040
Speaker 5: over you every time. There's no variance on dunking. I mean,

151
00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:28,560
Speaker 5: to be fair, the variance on free throws should even out,

152
00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,640
Speaker 5: So I guess, I guess that would be the top

153
00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:35,520
Speaker 5: thing is stop fouling, maybe as much, but I don't

154
00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:38,160
Speaker 5: even as I'm saying that, like, well, no, except if

155
00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,360
Speaker 5: he's gonna dunk, definitely foul because he's gonna get a

156
00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,280
Speaker 5: less expected value on whatever free throws. Whatever he's shooting.

157
00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:48,160
Speaker 5: But he's got I think twenty four out of thirty

158
00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,120
Speaker 5: five free throws the last two games. Neither one of

159
00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:55,360
Speaker 5: those numbers is sustainable. He's not gonna keep shooting seventeen

160
00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:57,880
Speaker 5: and a half free throws a night. It's just too many.

161
00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,120
Speaker 5: Can't stay that high. Not going to keep hitting like

162
00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:05,040
Speaker 5: seventy percent of them. We know this, So that alone

163
00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:07,160
Speaker 5: is going to drop his scoring average a little bit,

164
00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:11,320
Speaker 5: take away some of those points, probably, but yeah, overall,

165
00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:17,160
Speaker 5: it's it's hard to think about right now. Is there

166
00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:21,360
Speaker 5: some sequencing or recency bias in this or is it

167
00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:25,480
Speaker 5: that the Bucks have found something? But it really feels

168
00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:29,160
Speaker 5: like if you could take away game one and just

169
00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:33,600
Speaker 5: take games two and three, or if the Bucks had

170
00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:35,920
Speaker 5: actually won that game too, that we all agreed they

171
00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:40,240
Speaker 5: probably should have. In either one of those scenarios, I

172
00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:43,320
Speaker 5: think we would all be feeling really strongly about the

173
00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:49,160
Speaker 5: Bucks right now. If the series started over right now,

174
00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:52,800
Speaker 5: new series, seven games, Phoenix, home court, the whole works,

175
00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:56,760
Speaker 5: I would pick Milwaukee. I think the problem is that

176
00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,040
Speaker 5: Phoenix is still up two to one and they still

177
00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,880
Speaker 5: have home court, and so then you've got a pretty

178
00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:05,240
Speaker 5: even serious and I think it's we haven't had a

179
00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:08,319
Speaker 5: close game yet, per se. I think they've all been

180
00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:11,079
Speaker 5: double digits, but it's it's been awesome and so much

181
00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:12,440
Speaker 5: fun to watch everything happen.

182
00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:15,640
Speaker 1: So a couple of things here. I think one we

183
00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:17,760
Speaker 1: talked about how after Game two we were like, no, well,

184
00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,920
Speaker 1: now they got to win four or five from Phoenix. Okay,

185
00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:22,920
Speaker 1: so they win, they win game they win game three,

186
00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:25,240
Speaker 1: So now as they gotta win three of four from Phoenix,

187
00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,160
Speaker 1: if they win the next one, it's can you take

188
00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:30,480
Speaker 1: two of three from Phoenix and you only got to

189
00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:34,320
Speaker 1: get one on the road, Like you can lose game five,

190
00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:35,800
Speaker 1: come back and win game six, and then you still

191
00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:40,880
Speaker 1: got a chance in seven, Which is why, which is

192
00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:45,640
Speaker 1: why the book makers are they're just it turns out

193
00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:48,560
Speaker 1: they're very good at their jobs, just impressively good at

194
00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:53,080
Speaker 1: their jobs. The book makers, especially on the NBA, So

195
00:10:55,600 --> 00:11:00,000
Speaker 1: Bucks plus one and a half is actually juiced minus

196
00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:04,319
Speaker 1: it's minus one twenty. So think about that. We got

197
00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:07,080
Speaker 1: Bucks or plus two twenty five on the series line,

198
00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:13,319
Speaker 1: which I think is like a sign of how much

199
00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:19,800
Speaker 1: they are protecting themselves against Bucks positions and plus one

200
00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:21,640
Speaker 1: and a half. So basically for them to win the

201
00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:25,679
Speaker 1: series or four seven, you have to lay twenty cents.

202
00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:29,679
Speaker 1: That to me was I try and look at these

203
00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:31,599
Speaker 1: things and try and figure out from the perspective of

204
00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:34,080
Speaker 1: the book makers, where do they want and not want

205
00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:37,679
Speaker 1: the money? Right like, where are they disincentivizing you? And

206
00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:44,160
Speaker 1: they're definitely right now disincentivizing to me Raheem, like I

207
00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:48,240
Speaker 1: talked about, I wrote an article on Tuesday talk about

208
00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:53,680
Speaker 1: this that if you're gonna bet the Bucks, don't bet

209
00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:57,520
Speaker 1: them plus two twenty five. Just bet Yanis to win

210
00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:02,320
Speaker 1: the MVP because you're getting two twenty five on the

211
00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:06,559
Speaker 1: series price and Yannis at plus two forty and you

212
00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:09,319
Speaker 1: find better numbers out there as well. And if you're

213
00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:11,840
Speaker 1: gonna bet the if you're going about the Suns, don't

214
00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:16,280
Speaker 1: bet the series line either at minus two seventy five.

215
00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:19,200
Speaker 1: Bet Chris Paul at minus one sixty five, you get

216
00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:25,080
Speaker 1: seventeen percent ev on that. So like that's where like

217
00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:26,679
Speaker 1: the edge is either way that you want to bet

218
00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:28,880
Speaker 1: the series, don't mess with the series line, And I

219
00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,240
Speaker 1: also would say don't even mess with like I don't

220
00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,280
Speaker 1: think there's any value to be had on the spread

221
00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:37,319
Speaker 1: the series spread at this point, like either bet game

222
00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:47,959
Speaker 1: by game, take the MVPs, or go outright because we

223
00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,560
Speaker 1: here one of the the the and over of them

224
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:52,480
Speaker 1: to get it wrapped up is for the Suns to

225
00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:54,720
Speaker 1: win in five, which is the minus two and a half,

226
00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:57,040
Speaker 1: which we had talked about earlier in the series. So

227
00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:03,440
Speaker 1: I want back to this. I want to warn us

228
00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:09,120
Speaker 1: collectively against not overreacting because like our podcast after Game

229
00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,480
Speaker 1: two was like what are the Bucks gonna do? Like

230
00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,280
Speaker 1: they're just screwed, Like they should have won that game

231
00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:15,040
Speaker 1: and they lost it, Like how are they gonna do this?

232
00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:17,760
Speaker 1: Like they just won't shoot, And now after they win

233
00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:19,960
Speaker 1: one game where they shoot well and the Suns finally

234
00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:22,400
Speaker 1: don't shoot well, even though jay Crowder could like at

235
00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:24,600
Speaker 1: some point the Jay Crowder variants is gonna come back

236
00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:27,199
Speaker 1: down and the Cam Johnson variance is gonna come down

237
00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,360
Speaker 1: down just like a little bit and then the Suns

238
00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:31,000
Speaker 1: are gonna be in a tight spot. But then you

239
00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:34,040
Speaker 1: expect Devin Booker to probably have one game here out

240
00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:37,360
Speaker 1: of the next four in the next before the end

241
00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:39,320
Speaker 1: of the series for him to have another. But I

242
00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:41,080
Speaker 1: am kind of like thinking, like, Okay, are we swinging

243
00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:42,640
Speaker 1: back the other way? Done now too much?

244
00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:49,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm wondering the same thing. But I feel like

245
00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:53,640
Speaker 4: the Bucks really still haven't completely swung into gear yet.

246
00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:58,320
Speaker 4: Like Chris Middleton was good in the first half, but

247
00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,280
Speaker 4: we haven't seen that Chris Middleton games. And I feel

248
00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:05,280
Speaker 4: like it's coming right. And I just I feel like,

249
00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:10,040
Speaker 4: you know, you mentioned this earlier. It's like people want

250
00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:14,200
Speaker 4: to see dominance from the Bucks, but this team just

251
00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:16,920
Speaker 4: kind of figured out a way to get it done. Yeah,

252
00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,080
Speaker 4: And I think there's something to be said about that.

253
00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:23,280
Speaker 4: And you know, sometimes you just want to see a

254
00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:26,240
Speaker 4: team show a little bit of life, and they did

255
00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,720
Speaker 4: that in that second quarter with that thirty to nine run.

256
00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:36,760
Speaker 1: So here here's here's one stat that I really wish

257
00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:40,360
Speaker 1: that I had actually looked at before Game three. Cameron

258
00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:43,960
Speaker 1: Payne in the playoffs in the restricted area, in the

259
00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:50,040
Speaker 1: restricted area on layups at home sixty seven point seven

260
00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:56,240
Speaker 1: percent on the road in the restricted area thirty two percent.

261
00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:04,000
Speaker 1: Campaign shoots thirty percentasically at the rim on the road.

262
00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:10,880
Speaker 1: The splits are wild. Suns fans were very quick to

263
00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:12,600
Speaker 1: point out, like some of this is influenced by the

264
00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:15,080
Speaker 1: injury that he suffered the ankle, and now he hasn't

265
00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,440
Speaker 1: been the same, but we even saw it in this

266
00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:19,360
Speaker 1: last game after he's had some time to get over

267
00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:22,320
Speaker 1: that injury. That's like a huge deal for them, right

268
00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:27,000
Speaker 1: because and this this dovetails with the Sarage thing. We

269
00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:32,560
Speaker 1: talked a lot about the depth of the Suns and

270
00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:34,720
Speaker 1: how big of a factor that was, right, Like, oh,

271
00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,720
Speaker 1: they've got Cam Johnson and they've got Cameron Payne, and

272
00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:40,720
Speaker 1: they've got like you know, and like all these guys

273
00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:44,680
Speaker 1: that can hit you in all these different ways. And

274
00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:45,840
Speaker 1: one of the things that i HA said about them

275
00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:48,560
Speaker 1: was so impressive is there wasn't a guy that you

276
00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,680
Speaker 1: could really target. You couldn't there wasn't like a weakness

277
00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:54,200
Speaker 1: you could really go at. And that was true until

278
00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:59,400
Speaker 1: Dario sarag got hurt. And now you know, Brandon talked

279
00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:05,400
Speaker 1: about fouls. This is this is a monster deal. Is

280
00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:09,920
Speaker 1: if Aiden gets in foul trouble. They have nothing they

281
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,600
Speaker 1: can do to stop. Be honest, they can't play Kaminski.

282
00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,880
Speaker 1: He gets destroyed in space. They've tried. First, they tried

283
00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:19,920
Speaker 1: Tory Craig at five Nope. Then they went to Jake

284
00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:22,960
Speaker 1: Crowder in the last game, and Yannis just annihilated him.

285
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,360
Speaker 1: I mean, just like Jay was playing great defense and

286
00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:33,040
Speaker 1: just like destroyed him. So like that to me is

287
00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 1: like a big adjustment that's coming, is like all of

288
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,880
Speaker 1: this this said, I'll tell you where I'm gonna bet.

289
00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:47,440
Speaker 1: I'm taking Suns plus the four and a half tomorrow

290
00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:53,040
Speaker 1: because I'm expecting a tight game. I just like, honestly,

291
00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,800
Speaker 1: I think four and a half too many points, even

292
00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,440
Speaker 1: with free throws. I think we're gonna I think we're

293
00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 1: due for an absolutely ugly, rotten Suns can't score at home, Bucks,

294
00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:11,359
Speaker 1: can't shoot because Bucks grind it out, exhausting tough calls,

295
00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:15,479
Speaker 1: can't get a whistle, ugly ass game. I like the

296
00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:19,080
Speaker 1: Suns in the Under tomorrow just because I would have liked,

297
00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,439
Speaker 1: you know, I think that Tomorrow's like, honestly, my biggest

298
00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:25,879
Speaker 1: concern with the Under is overtime. That's my big concern

299
00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:29,359
Speaker 1: tomorrow is that it's gonna go under and then overtime

300
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:31,359
Speaker 1: is gonna hit Brandon. Like, That's That's where I'm at

301
00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:33,520
Speaker 1: right now, is I don't want a beut this. This

302
00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:35,120
Speaker 1: is a rare instance where I don't think there's value

303
00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,200
Speaker 1: on betting the Suns to win. But I do think

304
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,400
Speaker 1: that that I want to bet against the spread because

305
00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,080
Speaker 1: I think we're looking at a close game.

306
00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,800
Speaker 5: So all that makes sense and theory to me. But

307
00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:49,840
Speaker 5: let me let me push back a little bit by

308
00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:53,320
Speaker 5: interpreting what that then means. I think that what you're

309
00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:57,280
Speaker 5: saying is that you feel like the Bucks are probably

310
00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,240
Speaker 5: going to win, but it's gonna be a very close game.

311
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:03,960
Speaker 5: So the Bucks win by four fewer points. That's that's

312
00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:10,160
Speaker 5: basically the bet that you're making, correct, right, So how

313
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 5: good do you feel about this Milwaukee team winning a

314
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:17,520
Speaker 5: game by a bucket down the stretch? Like, now, we

315
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,720
Speaker 5: haven't seen clutch time yet between these teams, we haven't

316
00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,959
Speaker 5: seen a close one. So now you've got the honest

317
00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,240
Speaker 5: free throws thing and play, and now you've got Chris

318
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:29,560
Speaker 5: Paul like the god of clutch time and play, do

319
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:33,199
Speaker 5: you really feel good about the Bucks actually having to

320
00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:37,280
Speaker 5: win that one score game down the stretch because to me,

321
00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:42,720
Speaker 5: I agree theoretically with what you're saying. I also think

322
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:46,440
Speaker 5: the Bucks find a way tomorrow. But if I think

323
00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 5: they find a way, I think that I might have

324
00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,840
Speaker 5: to bet them to cover because I don't think I

325
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,920
Speaker 5: trust Milwaukee to win that close game by a bucket.

326
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:58,760
Speaker 1: This is why the line's annoying. Again. I don't like

327
00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:01,560
Speaker 1: how good the odds makers are this because like the

328
00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 1: money lines minus one eighty five, if I had this

329
00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:07,200
Speaker 1: at like one p fifty, I'm probably looking at Bucks

330
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,120
Speaker 1: money line, but I don't gotta.

331
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:10,680
Speaker 2: I don't want to.

332
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,040
Speaker 1: I don't like laying one eighty five on this ring.

333
00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 5: So so let me ask this. I'm gonna push back

334
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,040
Speaker 5: a little bit, Matt on what you said before your

335
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:22,840
Speaker 5: article about the angle of betting the series is to

336
00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:26,120
Speaker 5: bet the finals MVP. And I'm pushing back on myself

337
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,240
Speaker 5: on this too, because we literally just talked about this

338
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:30,560
Speaker 5: the other day and I agreed fully with the point.

339
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,159
Speaker 5: But let me give one angle on each side that

340
00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 5: you could play instead that gives you a slightly better play.

341
00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:40,920
Speaker 5: So right now, at bet MGM, you can bet Milwaukee

342
00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:44,480
Speaker 5: to win Game four and the series. Yea, at plus

343
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:49,920
Speaker 5: two sixty, so you're that's versus two forty for Yannis

344
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,640
Speaker 5: MVP and what is it two five for the series?

345
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,320
Speaker 5: Do we not agree that if Milwaukee has to win

346
00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,640
Speaker 5: Game four to win the series, they're not going down

347
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,159
Speaker 5: three and then ripping off three in a row twice

348
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:02,640
Speaker 5: on the route.

349
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 2: We all agree with that, right, yeah? Yeah?

350
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,399
Speaker 5: So if so, they have to if Milwaukee's going to

351
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,280
Speaker 5: win the series, they have to win Game four, and

352
00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 5: then that's a better play at the two sixty if

353
00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:16,360
Speaker 5: you want to take the Bucks series. And I think,

354
00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 5: actually I agree with what Raheem said, Like to me,

355
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,920
Speaker 5: I don't have a pick for I mean, my Game

356
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:26,040
Speaker 5: four pick is a prop. I just don't want any

357
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:27,880
Speaker 5: part of it. I don't know if it's over under,

358
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,480
Speaker 5: I don't know it's Phoenix Milwaukee. I would lean in

359
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:33,920
Speaker 5: Milwaukee money line, but the value is not really there.

360
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:38,640
Speaker 5: But I do think that at plus two sixty, that's

361
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:41,919
Speaker 5: basically saying, what is that something like twenty seven percent

362
00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:45,200
Speaker 5: implied to win the series. And I just think with

363
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 5: what we're seeing at Milwaukee right now in these last

364
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,119
Speaker 5: two games, I think it's maybe i'd put it closely

365
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 5: like thirty five or something.

366
00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:54,560
Speaker 1: Well, let's I mean, let's get longer here. You talked

367
00:20:54,600 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 1: about Milwaukee in six on the last podcast. I personally

368
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 1: don't think there's any way that the Bucks win four straight.

369
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,160
Speaker 1: Are you in a place for eating because it's still

370
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 1: on the board, Rannan.

371
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,360
Speaker 5: I do think it's on the board because I think

372
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,719
Speaker 5: it's it's the same. I would make the same argument

373
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 5: that you did a bit ago, which is the idea

374
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:21,159
Speaker 5: of winning four straight seems outlandish, but so did the

375
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 5: idea of winning four out of five right up until

376
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 5: it's no longer four to five. Now it's three out

377
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 5: of four, and then you win one, and then it's

378
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 5: two out of three. So it's the same thing. It's well,

379
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:31,679
Speaker 5: can they really win four in a row? No, it

380
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 5: seems crazy. But now they only need three in a row,

381
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 5: and we're saying we think they're gonna win tomorrow. And

382
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 5: now you only need two in a row, and one

383
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 5: of those is the game five, that's the pivotal, that's.

384
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,320
Speaker 2: The road one. You win that one, now you're.

385
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 5: Actually favored sizably, you have all the momentum, you've looked

386
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 5: good four games in a row, Like, it's yeah, it

387
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:54,640
Speaker 5: seems crazy that you have to win four in a row,

388
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 5: But you don't have to win four in a row anymore.

389
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 5: You only have to win three more in a row.

390
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 5: The first one already happened, so it's it's the same

391
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 5: logic that we can use on the four out of

392
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 5: five or that sort of thing. Like, I don't think

393
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 5: that the value is there anymore. It was twelve hundred

394
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,159
Speaker 5: when we talked about it coming into game three, and

395
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 5: it's cutt in half now to six hundred. So I

396
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:16,679
Speaker 5: don't know. I would take Bucks and seven over Bucks

397
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,200
Speaker 5: and six given the two options, but I think I'd

398
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 5: rather just not mess with it. Like, to me, my

399
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 5: fear about Bucks and six not happening if they would

400
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 5: win the series is that they're presumably three or four

401
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 5: games left in the series then, and I still don't

402
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 5: trust the Bucks enough to not just lay a complete

403
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 5: egg in one out of those three or four games. Offensively,

404
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 5: like shoot like twenty percent, and that's just that.

405
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,239
Speaker 4: Well, I think the big thing for me is like

406
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 4: when I look at this Bucks scene, they're dominating the

407
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 4: offensive rebounds, like they don't even have to shoot as well.

408
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 4: And I think outside of the outlier game in game two,

409
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 4: it's like that's making a drastic difference. I'm not gonna lie,

410
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 4: I just I kind of get Raptors Bucks vibes from

411
00:22:57,840 --> 00:22:58,359
Speaker 4: this series.

412
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 1: The Bucks do yet jumper heavy, Like both these teams

413
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 1: get jumper heavy, Like that's one of the problems is

414
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 1: like Aydon was dominant in that first half and even

415
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 1: played five minutes second half, but because a foul trouble

416
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 1: and Money basically pulled the plug, Like that needs to

417
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 1: be like stressed here is that money? Pretty early in

418
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 1: this game, like second half, they kind of came out

419
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 1: and was like, hey, maybe week up. No, okay, And

420
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 1: at that point, like mid third quarter, when the Bucks

421
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,679
Speaker 1: made a run, Monny Williams was like, all right, back off,

422
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 1: let's go circle the wagons. We're coming back for game like,

423
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 1: let's try and get game four. Like that was a

424
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 1: strategic move. Yeah, not playing Booker, not having eight and

425
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 1: foul out like that was a strategic My guys retired.

426
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,920
Speaker 1: They got this one. We thought they get this one.

427
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 1: Let's regroup and go back for game four.

428
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:49,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, and let's not forget too like it's overlooked now

429
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,480
Speaker 5: because we remember the thirty to nine run to and

430
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,919
Speaker 5: a half for Milwaukee and sixty to zero to end

431
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,360
Speaker 5: the third quarter for Milwaukee. Well, that's thirty seven points

432
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 5: in Milwaukee's favor. They didn't win by thirty seven because

433
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:04,160
Speaker 5: don't forget in between those two runs, Phoenix made their run.

434
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 5: Cam Johnson dunk PJ. Tucker into oblivion, like McHale Bridges

435
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 5: had that weird play where he stole the tip and

436
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,640
Speaker 5: just had like an uncontested dunk. On the other end,

437
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 5: they cut it down to like four or five at

438
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 5: one point, and honestly, it would have they probably would

439
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 5: have taken the lead. It's just that while that was happening,

440
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 5: I think like Drew Holliday and Pat Coneton.

441
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 2: Hit a couple threes and kept afloat just.

442
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 5: Enough and then it flipped, and it's like, you know,

443
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 5: you use all your energy on that run, and then

444
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 5: Milwaukee suddenly had their energy run and then it was

445
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 5: way back to where it was and then they pulled

446
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 5: the starters.

447
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 1: So I mean, good.

448
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 4: DeAndre, I mean DeAndrea had foul truck at that point

449
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 4: and they went small and they just couldn't get a rebound.

450
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 4: So it's like, I don't know, these are issues that

451
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 4: are gonna present itself again.

452
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's one of those things where it's again like

453
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 5: I don't know the solution is to that, Like Jay

454
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 5: Crowder is already rebounding out of his mind. Ayton can

455
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:01,119
Speaker 5: only get so many rebounds like they're it seems like

456
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 5: they can't possibly rebound forty percent of their misses like

457
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 5: they basically have the last two games. But when they

458
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:08,880
Speaker 5: have these guys out there in such a big size

459
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 5: advantage in the paint, I don't know, maybe they can.

460
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: So not to get too much into into the just

461
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 1: bout enough numbers, but they want to make this point

462
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 1: because were talking about where to find the best value

463
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 1: Brandon instead of going game four and win the series

464
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,479
Speaker 1: with we're only getting plus two seventy or plus two

465
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 1: sixty on okay bucks and six is plus six hundred

466
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 1: bucks and seven is plus five hundred. So you put

467
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: a unit on both your net's either plus four.

468
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 2: You got two seventy five then basically right, Yeah, yeah.

469
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, we had that on. We had that one other

470
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 5: time too. I don't know why the books keep doing that.

471
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 5: It's very strange.

472
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 2: I think you're right, though, Yeah, I think that's a mistake.

473
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 1: You're either plus four.

474
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 2: On Bucks.

475
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 1: If it's if it's Bucks in in seven, you're you're

476
00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: plus four. If it's Bucks and six, you're plus five

477
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: even with the cost of the other bet. So if

478
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 1: you're gonna do it, just put a unit on each, right.

479
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,119
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think so basically when it's when it's like

480
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,120
Speaker 5: that in my head, it's just you average the two

481
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 5: numbers together and then and then cut in half because

482
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 5: you had to put a unit on both of them, right,

483
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 5: and then it comes out to two seventy five. So

484
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 5: you're getting, you know, extra fifteen cents on your bet.

485
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 5: So yeah, get that before they fix it, I guess,

486
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 5: let me Okay. So I said that was my pushback

487
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 5: to the betting Giannis rather than the series this. So

488
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 5: I think that's a real case. I think I think

489
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 5: we've shown that if you want to bet the Bucks,

490
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 5: you've got a few other ways to do it. Definitely

491
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,880
Speaker 5: don't just bet Bucks series line, you clearly have better.

492
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 2: Options than that.

493
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 5: So Sons and Chris Paul, this this is gonna be

494
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 5: my my outlandish take of the podcast, I guess.

495
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 2: But so in the.

496
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 5: Past, who wins finals MVP over the last decade, here's

497
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 5: who wins. It's either Lebron James or the guy who

498
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 5: guards Lebron James. Right, that's who wins Finals MVP for

499
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,399
Speaker 5: like year after year after year. So here's my case.

500
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 5: We're already hearing the conversation. We've already said it ourselves.

501
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 5: Chris Paul might be the best Suns player, but Dendray

502
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 5: Ayton is the most important Sons player. So what happens.

503
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 5: Giannis is playing out of his mind right now. He's

504
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 5: having like an all time finals down Ray. Ayden is

505
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 5: the only reason that stops if he slows him down.

506
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 5: So he's only putting up like thirty a game or whatever,

507
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 5: and Aten starts. You know, he's nearly leading the series

508
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,640
Speaker 5: in rebounds. He's almost matching Giannis. So down Ray's started

509
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 5: putting up some like twenty and fifteen lines. The Sons

510
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 5: aren't gonna have any big lines. Chris Paul is not

511
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 5: gonna win because of the stats thing. He's gonna win

512
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 5: because of the legacy and because he's CP and all that.

513
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 5: That's not going away. But can DeAndre Ayton, like he's

514
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:53,120
Speaker 5: gonna get He's been the story of the playoffs. He's

515
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,399
Speaker 5: had this big series after series for them. He's the

516
00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 5: primary defender on Giannis if the Suns went after what

517
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 5: Jiannis has been doing. Let's say Jianis has another huge

518
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:06,359
Speaker 5: game and then Aydon starts to slow him down a

519
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 5: little bit and be productive.

520
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 2: On the other side.

521
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 5: So right now at MGM eight and this twenty five

522
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 5: to one, I wouldn't bet that. But if you look

523
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,159
Speaker 5: around a little bit, I'm finding him at eighty to

524
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 5: one at another book eighty to one. That's like a

525
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 5: one and a half percent chance. I'm just saying, could

526
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 5: could you do that? That the Andre Guadala sort of

527
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 5: finals MVP here the defender.

528
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 1: No, Okay, so this is a here's a misnomer. All right,

529
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,239
Speaker 1: you're wrong. Your premise, your central premise was wrong in

530
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: that he said it's either Lebron or the guy that

531
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 1: guards Lebron. That's actually not true. Here's here's a better

532
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 1: way to say that it's either Lebron or the guy

533
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 1: that guards Lebron if the best player on the team

534
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 1: doesn't have a great series, right like who won in

535
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 1: two thousand and seventeen, Durant, who won in twenty eighteen, Durant, the.

536
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 2: Guy who guarded Lebron stop.

537
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 4: Lebron?

538
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 5: Not that the guy who guards Lebron happens to be

539
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 5: Kevin Durant or Kahi Leonards.

540
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 1: Well, a lot of this really is just like Steph

541
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 1: never really had a great final series. He didn't have

542
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 1: one that was definably all that great. You mentioned like

543
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 1: the stats Paul's leading the suns and points, which, by

544
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 1: the way, yikes, but twenty five per game for Paul

545
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 1: eight point seven, eight point seven assists with a steal

546
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 1: per game, shooting fifty seven fifty seventy five. Those are

547
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 1: his splits like eight. The numbers are there too. There's

548
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 1: just another thing, is it is a much It is

549
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 1: a much different deal to slow down Lebron than Yannis.

550
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 1: For as great as Yannis has been, for as awesome

551
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 1: as Yannis has been, you will not get the same

552
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 1: level of respect for slowing down Jannis that you get

553
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: for slowing down Lebron. Like that's it's just a different

554
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 1: tier because of the stuff that Raheem I think very

555
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 1: fairly talked about in terms of like it's fun to

556
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 1: give Raheem grief about the bag thing, but he wasn't wrong,

557
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 1: Like Giannis is not a Yans doesn't have shake.

558
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 3: You know, this is action network podcast producer Matt Mitchell

559
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 3: here to tell you our friends at bet mgm have

560
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 3: a great news sign up offer for our listeners, a

561
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 3: six one hundred dollars risk free first bet. Here's how

562
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,719
Speaker 3: it works. If you don't already have an account at

563
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 3: bet mgm, just sign up, make your first deposit and

564
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 3: place that initial wager. If the bet wins, you get

565
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 3: all the money. If it doesn't win, bet mgm will

566
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 3: refund you in free bets up to six hundred dollars.

567
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 3: It's that simple. Just click on the link in this

568
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 3: episode description to get started. Bet mgm has been a

569
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 3: great podcast partner, and they've got all the features gamblers

570
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 3: like us love, like live betting and daily odds boosts.

571
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 3: Plus their compatible with Betsinc. So when you place a

572
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,959
Speaker 3: wager at bet mgm, that bet can automatically be tracked

573
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 3: in your Action app. So open an account today and

574
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 3: make your first bet risk free up to six hundred dollars.

575
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 3: Just click on the link in this episode description to

576
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 3: get started. Must be twenty one or older and physically

577
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 3: located in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia and Iowa, Virginia,

578
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 3: Tennessee Nevada or Pennsylvania, Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called

579
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 3: one eight hundred and five two to two forty seven

580
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 3: hundred in Colorado and Nevada. One eight hundred gambler in

581
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 3: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, in West Virginia, one eight hundred and

582
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 3: nine with it in Indiana, one eight hundred and twenty

583
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 3: seven zero seven to one one seven in Michigan, one

584
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 3: eight hundred eight nine nine seven eight nine in Tennessee.

585
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:39,719
Speaker 3: One eight hundred bets off in Iowa or one eight

586
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 3: eight five three two thirty five hundred in Virginia. Betsinc.

587
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 3: Not available in Nevata. Thanks for listening. Now back to

588
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 3: the show.

589
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 5: Will you grant me that we know that NBA Finals

590
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 5: MVP is something like ten or eleven voters usually right,

591
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 5: and it happens right there in the moment. Would you

592
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 5: be shocked to find out, let's say the Suns winning

593
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 5: six or seven, that's how we're getting a son's at

594
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 5: Finals MVP? Would you be shocked to find out that

595
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 5: one person voted for Deandraton to win Finals MVP?

596
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 2: Yes? I would.

597
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 4: I mean he had ten points in game two to

598
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 4: be a final with MVP, you have to be consistent.

599
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 4: He had to twenty two or nineteen in Game one.

600
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 4: But Matt talks about this all the time. They ignore him.

601
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 4: If his own team ignores him, what are the voters

602
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 4: gonna do?

603
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 1: Like they will they will look at the numbers and

604
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 1: like Igodala did like hit some shots and had some scoring,

605
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 1: and Kwide like had some score. Like there was parts

606
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 1: of that. The other thing I think is especially I

607
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 1: think if you're a center, Brandon, that's like, that's the

608
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 1: big differential here, right, is Like I think in order

609
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: for you to win it, if you're a center, it's

610
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 1: gonna have to be like a Rudy Gobert. That's like

611
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 1: he has the reputation as being a dominant defensive big

612
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 1: man and he doesn't. It doesn't have that.

613
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 2: I think that's fair.

614
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 5: I think built into my argument what I what I

615
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 5: didn't say as part of it is that I don't

616
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 5: feel like Chris Paul has been great the last two games.

617
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 2: I feel like Drew Holliday has really taken it to him.

618
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 5: Defensively, Paul has had I think he's had ten turnovers

619
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 5: the last two games.

620
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 2: He has he's making shots.

621
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm not saying he's been bad or terrible

622
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 5: like he's he's been, he's been not he had as

623
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 5: he needs to be.

624
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 1: He had nineteen and nine on eight of fourteen shooting.

625
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's it's Chris Paul. He's an all

626
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 5: time great player. I'm not saying he's been bad. I'm

627
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 5: just saying if the Suns are going to win the series,

628
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 5: either Giannis has to slow way down or Chris Paul

629
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 5: has to be markedly better than he has been the

630
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 5: last two games.

631
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 4: I think I think the problem with your logic is

632
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 4: that eighton just isn't competing with Chris Paul. He's competing

633
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 4: with Devin Booker as well.

634
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,479
Speaker 1: Like even if Chris bottomed out, if Chris just had

635
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 1: like a rotten rest of the series and the Sun's

636
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 1: still won. Your boy, Jay Crowder, I think has a

637
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 1: better at it. DeAndre shoot Bridges.

638
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, no chance.

639
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 5: Nothing Michale Bridges could do the rest of the series

640
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 5: is getting him a final.

641
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 1: He had twenty He had twenty seven.

642
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:16,799
Speaker 2: In game two, he had four in game three, he had.

643
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,439
Speaker 1: Twenty seven in game two. Well, what do we talk about?

644
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:21,480
Speaker 1: It's how you do in the wins?

645
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, yeah, I don't think that Booker is in

646
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 2: the running.

647
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 5: So that's I was trying to get creative, trying to

648
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 5: see is there any other option than Chris Paul. I

649
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 5: think I think that eight would have a shot. I

650
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 5: think that he would. I think at least one or

651
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 5: two people in that scenario would.

652
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 1: Give me, give me a media member. You don't imagine

653
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 1: saying the specific person, give me the type of media

654
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 1: voter that that that that would do that Zach Lowe

655
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:48,879
Speaker 1: is doing.

656
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 2: Yes, that the Zach Lowe voter is who's going to

657
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 2: do it.

658
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 1: Zach Clow's absolutely not Zach clos absolutely.

659
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 5: Because for the CP legacy or because he just wouldn't

660
00:34:59,440 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 5: vote for.

661
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 1: Aighton because he knows that ultimately Chris's play early on

662
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: in the series in those two wins, that he was

663
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:12,440
Speaker 1: the best player overall on the winning team that he

664
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:15,359
Speaker 1: did have that and like the legacy thing is it's

665
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 1: an easy out too to be like, there's no scenario.

666
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 1: Let me put this way, zachal is ever gonna be

667
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 1: on the low post being like being like, you know who,

668
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 1: I thought like DeAndre Aiden was just better than Chris

669
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 1: Paul the series. Imagine him really saying that no, he's.

670
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 5: Not gonna say that, but I absolutely can hear the

671
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,359
Speaker 5: podcast where like I think he literally talked about it

672
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 5: on his podcast with Arnovich today about like that that

673
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 5: John Rayton is the most important player to the son.

674
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 1: Yes, he could be the most important player, but he's

675
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 1: not gonna get that finals MVP. That's the difference. Like

676
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 1: the most important player in the regular season MVP, I

677
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 1: think does matter. I don't think it matters for finals MVP.

678
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 1: It's too like.

679
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:55,879
Speaker 2: I don't think so either.

680
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 5: I'm just saying, if you I'm not taking that twenty

681
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 5: five to one, I'm just saying, and look, I can't

682
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 5: play any more finals MVP. I've picked like seven of

683
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:05,399
Speaker 5: them from the series, so I can't ask any order.

684
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 2: My position.

685
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 5: Well, I'm just saying at eighty to one, I can

686
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 5: see a case to get there.

687
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:10,879
Speaker 2: At eighty to one.

688
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 1: Just give me the case for Drew Holiday for the

689
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 1: series assists. You can put this one in the article.

690
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:20,720
Speaker 5: So I think that right now, it's only one apart.

691
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 5: It's CP and Holiday are only one assist apart from

692
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:27,439
Speaker 5: each other, if I remember right, and it basically it's

693
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 5: it's neck and neck. Like my case is basically that

694
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 5: I think that it's close to a coin flip Holidays assists.

695
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 5: He's consistently been hitting nine to nine, nine, like something

696
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 5: like seven of the last eight games he's at nine.

697
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 5: He had one seven and that was that game when

698
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 5: Milwaukee missed every shot in the world, So I'm assuming

699
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 5: that that was why he missed a couple of assists

700
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 5: as well. Otherwise, he's hitting nine, nine, nine every game,

701
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 5: and then like every third game he's getting like an

702
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 5: eleven or twelve or something like that. Chris Paul has

703
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 5: not hit double digit assists in his last six games

704
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 5: in a row, so CP is consistently getting like eight

705
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 5: or nine, eight or nine over and over again. It's

706
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 5: right neck and neck. I just think that the way

707
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 5: that the numbers have looked recently, I would put them

708
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 5: nearly even where they have been so far. But Chris Paul,

709
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 5: you're laying real juice on Chris Paul, and you're getting

710
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 5: one fifteen at Drew. So it's it's basically me me saying,

711
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,759
Speaker 5: flip a coin, do you want the one at you know,

712
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 5: minus one thirty or one fifteen plus.

713
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 2: So that's the case for me.

714
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,720
Speaker 1: What has to happen for an assist to occur.

715
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 2: Do you make the basket?

716
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, I feel pretty old about passing it to Giannis.

717
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,320
Speaker 1: Do we feel confident about the bucks making make because

718
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 1: like you're right about the honesty, but we also know

719
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 1: that is going to get fouled, right, so like you're

720
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 1: gonna lose a lot of assists on the on the foul, right, Yeah,

721
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 1: which is that's a bad thing that they do, Like

722
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 1: they should get this rack up.

723
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 5: Yeah, well John Stockton would have averaged like twenty five

724
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 5: assists a game then. But also though Chris Paul I

725
00:37:56,320 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 5: would expect will continue to be he doesn't score is

726
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 5: much the last couple of games, and I think that

727
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:06,240
Speaker 5: we're seeing that he needs Phoenix needs him to score more.

728
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 5: You can't assist yourself. So if Chris Paul is getting

729
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 5: to those elbow jumpers or taking a few more shots,

730
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 5: those are a few potential less assistants getting to I

731
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 5: don't think we're thinking Holiday is gonna suddenly be the

732
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:19,759
Speaker 5: guy that's pouring in all the points to get there.

733
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 5: So I just think that one's gonna be close. If

734
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 5: I were setting the line, I would probably put something

735
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 5: like Drew Holliday maybe minus one ten or one oh

736
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:30,439
Speaker 5: five or something like that. So I just think there's

737
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:33,399
Speaker 5: an edge of value of there, Brahim, what do.

738
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 1: You have Game fourm all that I still like the under.

739
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 1: I think I like the under last game, and we

740
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 1: just scraped by on that one. The Bucks actually, like

741
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 1: they scored one hundred and twenty and we still got

742
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 1: the under. Even if you're like, well, the Sons aren't

743
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 1: gonna score one hundred again, I don't know, because the

744
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 1: Suns really just had bad execution and took bad shots.

745
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 1: But Jay Crowder hit everything, and even if Booker boops

746
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 1: boosts them up a little bit, I think you can

747
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 1: expect a little bit of Chris Paul shot regression, just

748
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 1: like a maybe, just like a touch.

749
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:08,360
Speaker 4: I have the Bucks minus three point one seven five

750
00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 4: over under two twenty two. Okay, so it's like right

751
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 4: around around the market pretty much.

752
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you like the over a touch, yeah,

753
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 1: But I just think.

754
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:26,399
Speaker 4: For me, when it comes to my model, I kind

755
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 4: of have to throw it out after the first couple

756
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 4: of games, just because it's just the same team playing

757
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 4: over and over and they're making adjustments, and you know

758
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 4: a lot of these they kind of play true to

759
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:42,240
Speaker 4: form after a whole so it's not like a regular

760
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 4: season game where you have two teams matching up that

761
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:46,319
Speaker 4: you know haven't really scottered each other.

762
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:52,919
Speaker 5: Your model is not really adjusting much from game to game, right, No.

763
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 4: I mean it is, but my model can't tell that,

764
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 4: you know, DeAndre Ayton. No, my model can't tell that

765
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 4: Sarik isn't playing sure And you know you have all

766
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,799
Speaker 4: these other minutes with Frank Kamiski and everything like that.

767
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 1: So so Brandon, for your prop's article mar which you

768
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:14,319
Speaker 1: can finally Action Network in the Action Network app, you're

769
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 1: taking the under on Yiannis.

770
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 2: I'm taking the under.

771
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:22,000
Speaker 5: It's because the line is at thirty four and a half,

772
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:25,440
Speaker 5: which is just a very high line for points. So

773
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:31,840
Speaker 5: now part of the argument is it's Janis has only

774
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 5: once in his career had more than thirty five thirty

775
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 5: five or more points more than twice in a row.

776
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 5: He's only ever done that once. Now that's kind of

777
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,080
Speaker 5: a flimsy argument because the first two games already happened.

778
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 5: We're not betting in all three. We only need one more,

779
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 5: so I'll point that out in itself. But before the finals,

780
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:51,880
Speaker 5: Janis was averaging something like twenty eight or twenty nine

781
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 5: a game. That's a lot. That's really good. That's a

782
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 5: lot of points. It's just not thirty five. Thirty five

783
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 5: is a lot more a lot of points. The playoffs,

784
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 5: like right now, it just feels inevitable. Oh my gosh,

785
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 5: how could Yannis possibly not score at least thirty five?

786
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 5: He's been over forty the last two games. For the

787
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 5: whole playoffs, He's only had thirty five or more one

788
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:16,439
Speaker 5: other game. The rest of the playoffs. He's been under

789
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 5: in fifteen out of eighteen playoff games under this thirty

790
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 5: four and a half line, And to me, it's just

791
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 5: it's a math play. The number has gone up so much.

792
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:31,879
Speaker 5: His points line has gone up eight points from game

793
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 5: one until now. And I know part of that is

794
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 5: because we didn't really know what the injury of what

795
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 5: was gonna come eight points though, that's like a thirty

796
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 5: percent increase just because of what we saw in these

797
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 5: two games, which just can't keep happening forever.

798
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:46,399
Speaker 1: I mean, what do we think it would have been

799
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:48,839
Speaker 1: if we'd known that he was gonna look like this?

800
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 2: Well, I mean the question is what this means?

801
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 5: Because we didn't know that he was going to look

802
00:41:57,320 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 5: as good as he did in game one, but also

803
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 5: are what you are just insinuating with this in games

804
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 5: two and three? He can't be that in all the games. Like,

805
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 5: if that's what he is, then sure, then I'm gonna

806
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:13,399
Speaker 5: lose money on it. He's gonna hit the over because

807
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 5: he's gonna score forty ever game. But like, okay, so

808
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 5: I had a few minutes before coming on here, let

809
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 5: me just nerd out for like one minute on Gyana's stats.

810
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 5: So I dug into some of the advanced metrics on

811
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 5: Basketball Reference, just trying to figure out, okay, exactly how

812
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 5: absurdly good has Giannis been these last couple of games.

813
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 5: So on. On a Basketball Reference, they have a stat

814
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 5: called BPM. Box plus minus is kind of one of

815
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 5: their all in one stats. Usually, if you are like

816
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:45,720
Speaker 5: a six or seven, you're playing at like an MVP

817
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 5: contender level for a game. If you're like a nine

818
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:51,360
Speaker 5: or ten, you're getting near like Lebron MJ type status.

819
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 5: Yanna's BPM the last two games eighteen point zero and

820
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 5: seventeen point six, which is an ab number. He's had

821
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:03,800
Speaker 5: ten games right now at least six BPM. For reference,

822
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:06,760
Speaker 5: Chris Paul's BPM for the season is four point seven.

823
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:10,279
Speaker 5: So Giannis has been absurd his last two games, one

824
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 5: hundred and thirty eight and one hundred and forty eight

825
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 5: offensive rating, and he's been over sixty seven percent truse

826
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 5: shooting both of those. There's another score they have games

827
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 5: score on there, which is kind of just like a

828
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:23,280
Speaker 5: tally of all the ways you're.

829
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:23,879
Speaker 2: Affecting the game.

830
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 5: It's adding up your points, your rebounds, your shop locks,

831
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 5: all that kind of stuff. So I don't know how

832
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:31,600
Speaker 5: to tell you what the numbers stand for here, but

833
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 5: Yanni's was at thirty six and thirty seven on games

834
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,919
Speaker 5: score the last two games. It's only the ninth time

835
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 5: in NBA history that a player at any point in

836
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 5: the playoffs has had back to back game scores of

837
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 5: thirty five. The only other time the finals was Lebron

838
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 5: games five and six in the twenty sixteen finals when

839
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:53,360
Speaker 5: that big comeback came. No one's ever had three times

840
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 5: in the same finals. So it's just an absurd, absurd

841
00:43:57,360 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 5: stretch these last two games, which is awesome and we

842
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 5: should respect it. It just can't keep happening that way.

843
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 5: It can't.

844
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 4: See I feel like you would have bet against Shaq

845
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 4: in the two thousand finals, because.

846
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 2: Against Shack's points in the two thousand finals.

847
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:13,280
Speaker 1: And you would have lost.

848
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,360
Speaker 4: I mean because I mean that's essentially what we're witnessing

849
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,359
Speaker 4: right now, Like this is prime Shack right now. And

850
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 4: unlike with Shaq, you know, these teams had a bunch

851
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:26,080
Speaker 4: of sinners signed just to you know, get some thousand.

852
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 4: This team doesn't have that. I mean, when you look

853
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 4: at Cleaning the Glass, even with DeAndre Ayton, the Suns

854
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:35,439
Speaker 4: were dead last and frequency at the rim. They're giving

855
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 4: up twenty seven point two shots at the rim. This

856
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 4: was during the regular season, in the playoffs everything. So

857
00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 4: the this matchup is promptly honest, Like, I just I

858
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 4: don't know why you would want to bet against that.

859
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 1: Well, I think here because he's betting against human achievement.

860
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 1: Ryhane Palmer, he's betting against superhuman achievement. Ray Moys says that,

861
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 1: I think what you're really trying to say here with

862
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 1: all these stats is that the Bucks are back, is

863
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 1: what our.

864
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 2: Producer box are back.

865
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 5: They're officially back at Mitchell.

866
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:10,360
Speaker 1: I will say this though, Brandon. So I'm looking at

867
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 1: your article. You like the janis under and you like

868
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:16,319
Speaker 1: the under eighten over points and rebounds. Explain to me

869
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 1: how Giannis goes under, Aiden goes over and the Bucks

870
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:22,359
Speaker 1: don't win the and the Suns don't win the game.

871
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 5: I think because we're we're thinking of too too binary

872
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 5: on these, Like Giannis under does not mean Giannis had

873
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 5: a bad game. Giannis under means Giannis thirty four points

874
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:36,279
Speaker 5: and he had a great game. Still, Don Rayton's over,

875
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:39,479
Speaker 5: he nearly hit that over last game. He was only

876
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 5: off of it by two and he played half.

877
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:42,479
Speaker 2: Of the game.

878
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 5: Basically, it's like Don Rayton and its points and rebounds.

879
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,360
Speaker 5: For his you can get a whole lot of rebounds

880
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,080
Speaker 5: and your team could lose plenty. Still, like that's rebounds

881
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 5: aren't super affecting the outcome of a game, especially you know,

882
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:59,880
Speaker 5: defense or rebounds that that Aidan's racking up and Aiden's getting,

883
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 5: you know his like ten twelve, fourteen points, just a

884
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 5: lot of easy buckets near the rim that he's just

885
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 5: been getting. So it's it's just thinking of those independently,

886
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 5: like they're to me, these are not okay. What do

887
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:17,000
Speaker 5: I think about what's gonna happen in game four? Bucks Suns?

888
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 5: And how does that play out to Jannis's line. To me,

889
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:24,239
Speaker 5: it's a math problem, and the math says that the

890
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 5: line is too high, and the math says that the

891
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 5: line is too low for eighting and then okay, then

892
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:33,759
Speaker 5: what happens from there? I don't know's they're not independent

893
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:37,960
Speaker 5: because obviously if Janice scores thirty five or more, then

894
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:40,279
Speaker 5: the Bucks probably have a better chance to win.

895
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 2: But if Yanna.

896
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 5: Scores thirty five versus thirty three, do the Bucks have

897
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 5: a better chance to win?

898
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:47,880
Speaker 2: I don't know. It seems irrelevant to me.

899
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 1: This is a tough series. This is a point and

900
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:57,800
Speaker 1: we're at We're at a really interesting point in it. Man,

901
00:46:57,880 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna I'm trying to find, like the I'm

902
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:02,320
Speaker 1: able why I'm going with the Bucks five and six.

903
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 5: So there are five possible outcomes at this point, sons

904
00:47:06,560 --> 00:47:09,440
Speaker 5: in five, six or seven, Bucks and six or seven,

905
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:12,799
Speaker 5: regardless of odds. I'm not asking you to put what's

906
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:16,839
Speaker 5: the best price, just they're all even odds. You have

907
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:20,280
Speaker 5: to pick one. What is your most likely serious outcome

908
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:21,040
Speaker 5: right now?

909
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:24,760
Speaker 1: Sons and six? Sons and six, because I don't think

910
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 1: I think tomorrow is way too close up with to

911
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:29,839
Speaker 1: coin flip, like the pass for the Suns are so

912
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 1: much wider. Like this game tomorrow, It's not like, well,

913
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:33,919
Speaker 1: I think the Bucks are gonna take care of business.

914
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 1: I'm like, I think this is gonna be I'm will

915
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 1: be wrong, right, but I think this is just going

916
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 1: to be an extremely intense close game. They can go

917
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:44,520
Speaker 1: either way. And if the Suns get the coin flip,

918
00:47:44,840 --> 00:47:48,360
Speaker 1: then that's two games where they could have lost Slash

919
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 1: should have lost in one. And if you say, like, well,

920
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 1: if they lose tomorrow, aren't they done in five? I

921
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:56,040
Speaker 1: don't think so. Like I legitimately think the Bucks fight

922
00:47:56,080 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 1: them off and get them back to six. Like I

923
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 1: do not see Sons in five. I love it is

924
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:02,520
Speaker 1: I think we have one more Booker game. I think

925
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 1: we have one more mid game, right, And like, if

926
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:09,200
Speaker 1: the model is basically Bucks win a close win tomorrow,

927
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:12,479
Speaker 1: Sun's game five is the Booker game, Bucks game six

928
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:14,799
Speaker 1: is the mid game, and then we get seven. That

929
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 1: makes sense to me. But with the Bucks shooting outcomes,

930
00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 1: I'm still willing to lean towards the Suns. I'm not.

931
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:20,759
Speaker 2: I am not.

932
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:24,400
Speaker 1: I think there's value on the Bucks because they're more

933
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:27,359
Speaker 1: than a two to one dog, But that doesn't mean

934
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 1: that I don't think that the Sun's Like I still

935
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 1: if if the the lines were even, I'm still saying

936
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 1: that the Suns are gonna win the series, not just

937
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 1: because they're up to one, but because of a lot

938
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 1: of reasons, including them winning Game two and a bunch

939
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:41,840
Speaker 1: of like just the shooting variant stuff.

940
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:46,120
Speaker 5: So what's your what's your second choice after Sons and six?

941
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:48,239
Speaker 5: Are you Sons in seven? Is that your next pick?

942
00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:50,520
Speaker 3: No?

943
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 1: I think it's Bucks and seven. I don't I'm not

944
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:56,719
Speaker 1: worried about the Road, just not. I don't know why.

945
00:48:57,120 --> 00:48:59,880
Speaker 1: I know how good Home Court's been. Maybe that's wrong.

946
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 1: That can be just like a wrong read for me.

947
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:04,239
Speaker 1: But forever reason, like I could see the Bucks just

948
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 1: like basically outlasting them, because that's what they've done in

949
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 1: all these other series. Rights, Like they've taken hits and

950
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:11,880
Speaker 1: they've gotten pummeled, and they've looked bad, and they've been

951
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 1: up against the ropes and all these things have gone wrong,

952
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:16,560
Speaker 1: and then like it takes a little longer than we

953
00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 1: think it should need to, but at the end of it,

954
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:22,320
Speaker 1: there's still the Ones standing like they're just it's very foremanesque,

955
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:26,000
Speaker 1: just taking the beating and wearing you down. That's that's

956
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 1: a lot of it, Rahie, And what's your inclination on it.

957
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:32,800
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go Sons in seven in Bucks and six.

958
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 4: I know it's crazy. I just think either the Bucks

959
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 4: have figured something out they just continue to just dominate

960
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:43,720
Speaker 4: in the paint over the next couple of couple of games,

961
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:45,399
Speaker 4: or the.

962
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 1: Bucks just get tired Game seven they just.

963
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:50,279
Speaker 4: Kind of hit a wall from I don't want to

964
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:52,440
Speaker 4: say they played with their food, but they had a

965
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 4: lot of tough series and I just think at some

966
00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:56,680
Speaker 4: point it could come back to bite them. And we

967
00:49:56,760 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 4: all know game sevens are ugly. I'm trusting Chris Paul

968
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:03,200
Speaker 4: Devin Booker to hit those tough Mick ring shots in

969
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 4: Game seven at home. So I know this year has

970
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:09,279
Speaker 4: been a little different for game sevens. You know, the

971
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:11,960
Speaker 4: home team wins Game seven seventy one percent of the time,

972
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:14,440
Speaker 4: and the Bucks have won a Game seven. The Hawks

973
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 4: have won a Game seven on the road. So but

974
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 4: I just there's no way I would be willing to

975
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 4: bet against Chris Paul in a Game seven at home

976
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:24,400
Speaker 4: for his first NBA title.

977
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:26,520
Speaker 1: Which is funny because like everyone is like The joke

978
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 1: with him has always been that he's a choker. I

979
00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:29,799
Speaker 1: don't think he is, but that's just kind of I mean,

980
00:50:29,840 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 1: he hit.

981
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 4: The game winner against the Spurs in twenty fourteen, and

982
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 4: that was I mean that was the same night as

983
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:37,279
Speaker 4: the Mayweth of Pacio fight.

984
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:37,839
Speaker 1: Yep.

985
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:40,960
Speaker 5: My top pick right now I think would be sons

986
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:43,719
Speaker 5: and seven and then Bucks and seven, and I would

987
00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:46,680
Speaker 5: actually put Bucks in six after that the way that

988
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 5: the books rank it right now. So Matt, your sons

989
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:52,760
Speaker 5: and six pick is actually the least likely Suns outcome

990
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 5: according to the Bucks. So their ranking and the Suns

991
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:59,879
Speaker 5: outcomes are really close their rankings at bet MGM right now,

992
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 5: Sons and seven is plus two sixty sons and five

993
00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:07,400
Speaker 5: plus two seventy five sons and six plus three hundred.

994
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:10,319
Speaker 5: So the books are bet MGM is basically saying we

995
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:12,400
Speaker 5: think the Suns will win, but we have literally no

996
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 5: idea how many games is going to take. It's just

997
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:17,600
Speaker 5: any one of these three. Yeah, and then Bucks and

998
00:51:17,640 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 5: seven plus five hundred. Bucks and six is the least

999
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:24,239
Speaker 5: like the outcome, which makes sense. That's six hundred. So

1000
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:29,400
Speaker 5: to me, the box options are the two lowest at

1001
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:32,840
Speaker 5: bet MGM. For me, those are my second and third

1002
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:35,920
Speaker 5: highest picks. And when I saw that, that's when I

1003
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:37,839
Speaker 5: was like, Okay, well, then I think that I need

1004
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 5: to bet the Bucks series some way.

1005
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:41,240
Speaker 2: Because that's how I'm leaning.

1006
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:45,239
Speaker 5: And I feel like all three of us seem like

1007
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 5: we are expecting the Bucks to win tomorrow.

1008
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:52,239
Speaker 2: So I think that that's how we bet that.

1009
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 5: I'm not sure we still know, but I think that

1010
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 5: that's where we're leaning on the series as a whole.

1011
00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:01,399
Speaker 4: I mean, I think the question is, you know, men,

1012
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:03,839
Speaker 4: you know, he says we're gonna get one more mid game,

1013
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 4: We're gonna get one more book a game. But how

1014
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:07,839
Speaker 4: many Scott Foster games are we gonna get?

1015
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 3: Man?

1016
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 1: I just have this I got this feeling they're gonna

1017
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 1: give him seven. Just it's the morning of Game seven

1018
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:19,359
Speaker 1: and everyone just loses their mind and they know it's

1019
00:52:19,360 --> 00:52:20,800
Speaker 1: coming because he hasn't been in the rotation.

1020
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:24,440
Speaker 5: Well, if that's the case, If that's the case, then

1021
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:27,560
Speaker 5: the Suns have to win tomorrow too, because we need

1022
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 5: not just Scott Foster game seven Chris Paul. We need

1023
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:33,160
Speaker 5: the Chris Paul to have be in the process of

1024
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:37,200
Speaker 5: blowing a three one one lead, one down to Game seven,

1025
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:41,240
Speaker 5: Scott Foster twelve in a row, Chris Paul for the legacy.

1026
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:42,560
Speaker 2: We need the whole thing.

1027
00:52:43,120 --> 00:52:45,080
Speaker 1: Here's part of it, though they may put honestly, because

1028
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:46,839
Speaker 1: of all the Scott Foster stuff and because it's kind

1029
00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:50,560
Speaker 1: of embarrassing, they may push Foster's rotation and be like,

1030
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:52,480
Speaker 1: let's put it as late as possible in case the

1031
00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 1: series wraps. Only then you have Scott Foster reffing the

1032
00:52:55,520 --> 00:52:57,600
Speaker 1: single most important game with the NBA.

1033
00:52:57,800 --> 00:52:59,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, but these games, you know, we're spreading them out

1034
00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:01,960
Speaker 5: two games in between, Like can we just can can

1035
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:03,840
Speaker 5: Scott Foster just get a little rest? Can you go

1036
00:53:03,960 --> 00:53:06,240
Speaker 5: like a back to back here, Let's just get Scott out.

1037
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:07,800
Speaker 1: There, not knock it out, just get him out of

1038
00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:11,400
Speaker 1: the rotation before we go. Report out today from Shams

1039
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:14,120
Speaker 1: for any of the athletic that the and I like

1040
00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 1: this has been out there. I'd heard this and didn't.

1041
00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 1: I haven't talked to anybody in the Sexers organization, so

1042
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 1: I'm not going to report it. But like this has

1043
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:23,520
Speaker 1: been talked about league circles. Ben Simmons has been made

1044
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:26,040
Speaker 1: available to no surprise, and they are asking for an

1045
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:29,719
Speaker 1: All Star back. So The big thing is if you're

1046
00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:33,520
Speaker 1: betting it, you should take off like the Thunder and

1047
00:53:33,600 --> 00:53:36,520
Speaker 1: all of those rebuilding teams like the Cavaliers, like if

1048
00:53:36,520 --> 00:53:38,640
Speaker 1: they want actually good player back, you're pretty much looking

1049
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:45,040
Speaker 1: at like Boston, Washington, Golden State. That's like the value

1050
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:46,440
Speaker 1: off you're betting. Ben Simmons futures.

1051
00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:50,040
Speaker 5: Come on now, Kevin Love, all Star Olympian, Kevin Love,

1052
00:53:50,200 --> 00:53:53,399
Speaker 5: come on, all start, D'Angelo Russell. How about all start

1053
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:54,280
Speaker 5: Dangel Russell.

1054
00:53:54,520 --> 00:53:56,520
Speaker 1: I'm not ready to talk about Team USA yet. Do

1055
00:53:56,560 --> 00:53:58,440
Speaker 1: you guys have any sort of like lightning takes that

1056
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 1: you need to get out? Who are we betting in

1057
00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:03,920
Speaker 1: the Olympics if we're if we like I here's the

1058
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:05,440
Speaker 1: problem is that there's still my s three ninety and

1059
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 1: they won to night right, so like we still we

1060
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 1: still can't get like that's I was hoping they would

1061
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:12,719
Speaker 1: just lose all the friendlies and that we can just

1062
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 1: come back in heavy on Team USA. But we're not

1063
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:15,439
Speaker 1: gonna get.

1064
00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:18,239
Speaker 4: I mean, is there anybody we truly really respect? I mean,

1065
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:21,319
Speaker 4: even with them losing last night, they were up nine at.

1066
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:23,720
Speaker 5: Halftime, I think they're gonna lose another one this week

1067
00:54:24,080 --> 00:54:27,279
Speaker 5: so that we play Australia and then Spain. I think

1068
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:30,920
Speaker 5: those are probably the two toughest teams to play. We

1069
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:34,160
Speaker 5: don't have Holiday and Booker and Middleton. That clearly matters

1070
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:37,000
Speaker 5: right now because we're we got Darius Garland and Sadiq

1071
00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 5: Bay and stad Keldon Johnson like sorry but no, so

1072
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:43,799
Speaker 5: I think they're gonna lose one more. So I think

1073
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:47,799
Speaker 5: if you do want to bet against your homeland, you

1074
00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:50,319
Speaker 5: need to wait because I think they're gonna lose one

1075
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:54,680
Speaker 5: more still. And also, the opening group game for Team

1076
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 5: USA is a week from Sunday, so it's Sunday morning

1077
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:03,640
Speaker 5: at like six or something our time NBA Finals. If

1078
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:07,040
Speaker 5: it goes seven and Thursday night. If that's the case,

1079
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:11,360
Speaker 5: there's no chance Thursday night to Sunday morning in Tokyo

1080
00:55:11,440 --> 00:55:13,680
Speaker 5: on the other side of the world. Holiday and Middleton

1081
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:15,880
Speaker 5: book are ain't playing in that game. And who are we playing?

1082
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:16,560
Speaker 2: France?

1083
00:55:16,960 --> 00:55:19,560
Speaker 5: France is good, France has real players, France has really

1084
00:55:19,600 --> 00:55:22,319
Speaker 5: go bear. France has a bunch of NBA players like

1085
00:55:22,400 --> 00:55:24,480
Speaker 5: that would be. And now that game matters. Now it's

1086
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:27,160
Speaker 5: a group game. Now it's an actual Olympics game that

1087
00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:30,239
Speaker 5: we could lose. Like for all the handwringing. We don't

1088
00:55:30,239 --> 00:55:33,040
Speaker 5: lose Olympics games only in two thousand and four. I

1089
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:35,359
Speaker 5: think the American odds are gonna drop still. I think

1090
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:37,600
Speaker 5: they may lose a game this week, and I wouldn't

1091
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:39,879
Speaker 5: be too shocked to see them lose that France game.

1092
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 5: That doesn't mean they're out, it's group play. They can

1093
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 5: still come back and get back into it later. But

1094
00:55:44,640 --> 00:55:46,359
Speaker 5: I think that if you want to bet against them,

1095
00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:48,200
Speaker 5: you're gonna have a better chance to do it later.

1096
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:51,359
Speaker 1: Boy, wouldn't be Also, the same drive went back on them, right,

1097
00:55:51,360 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 1: Like we wait for that France game. They lose that

1098
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:53,600
Speaker 1: France game.

1099
00:55:53,719 --> 00:55:56,080
Speaker 2: Yeah that's true, that's true.

1100
00:55:56,920 --> 00:55:58,560
Speaker 1: And then and then we and then after that we

1101
00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:01,720
Speaker 1: come back on TEMSA after the odds get down somewhere lower.

1102
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:03,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point.

1103
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:06,080
Speaker 5: And at the end of the day, we still have

1104
00:56:06,360 --> 00:56:08,839
Speaker 5: Like I don't like the roster construction. I don't agree

1105
00:56:08,840 --> 00:56:10,840
Speaker 5: with some of the choices we still have Kevin Durant

1106
00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 5: and Damian Lillard, Like just those two alone should get.

1107
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:14,640
Speaker 2: The job done.

1108
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:17,640
Speaker 5: They haven't yet, But like, clearly the guys are a

1109
00:56:17,680 --> 00:56:19,839
Speaker 5: little winded. They're they're like these other teams have been

1110
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:22,720
Speaker 5: practicing together, they know each other, they've been running plays

1111
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:25,600
Speaker 5: like they've been It's not a fair fight right now.

1112
00:56:25,640 --> 00:56:27,319
Speaker 5: And it's also not a fair fight because we got

1113
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:29,400
Speaker 5: all of our NBA guys like it goes both ways,

1114
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:31,839
Speaker 5: but some of that stuff is going to even out

1115
00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:34,000
Speaker 5: and we're still going to have Kevin Durant and Damian

1116
00:56:34,040 --> 00:56:37,200
Speaker 5: Lillard when it matters, So this guy's not totally falling.

1117
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:39,000
Speaker 2: It is a concern though.

1118
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:41,040
Speaker 1: All Right, gonna rab it up for the Action Network

1119
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:43,680
Speaker 1: Podcast NBA Edition. Thanks for joining us. Make sure to

1120
00:56:44,040 --> 00:56:46,080
Speaker 1: check out everything in the app. Make sure to visit

1121
00:56:46,120 --> 00:56:48,560
Speaker 1: but MGM the official odds rider of the Action Network.

1122
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:51,720
Speaker 1: Make sure check out heat check at seven point thirty

1123
00:56:52,040 --> 00:56:54,960
Speaker 1: on Wednesday when you're listening to this some Wednesday seven thirty,

1124
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:58,839
Speaker 1: heat check Action Network HQ. Also, if you've been listening

1125
00:56:58,840 --> 00:57:00,520
Speaker 1: to podcast for a while, I want to hear your

1126
00:57:00,600 --> 00:57:03,440
Speaker 1: victory laps. So have you been betting in the finals,

1127
00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:05,080
Speaker 1: if you're making money, if you got big propits, come

1128
00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:06,920
Speaker 1: and come through. If you bet sons win the title

1129
00:57:06,960 --> 00:57:11,040
Speaker 1: months ago, hit us at Action Network HQ at Action

1130
00:57:11,239 --> 00:57:14,960
Speaker 1: Network HQ on Twitter with the hashtag victory lap. I

1131
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:18,040
Speaker 1: want to see those Victory Laps on Twitter for Brandon Anderson,

1132
00:57:18,120 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 1: Raheem Palmer on that more. Thanks for joining us. Make

1133
00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 1: sure to stay tuned throughout the week for more NFL coverage.

1134
00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:24,840
Speaker 1: Does It Get started? Training Camp? Just around the corner,

1135
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:27,840
Speaker 1: PGA Everything coming at you on the Action Network Podcast.

1136
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us on the Action Network Podcast NBA

1137
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:39,040
Speaker 3: Edition, We're finished talking