Speaker 1: If your football team had one option in their playbook,
Speaker 1: the results probably wouldn't be great. The same could be
Speaker 1: said for your investments. Cibo index options like SPX and
Speaker 1: xsp can help expand your investing strategies with cash settlement
Speaker 1: and potential tax advantages. If you're ready for a more
Speaker 1: dynamic game plan, head to Better with Options dot Com.
Speaker 1: Cebo life is better with options, Your investments could be too.
Speaker 1: There are risks associated with Cibo company products. Review the
Speaker 1: disclosures and disclaimers at cbo dot com slash us Underscore disclaimers.
Speaker 2: Welcome in episode sixty five of What's Right with Nick Wright.
Speaker 2: This will be our weekly NFL gambling show. We had
Speaker 2: been doing the weekly Top fifty players Last fifty years
Speaker 2: countdown for our third show week. Those came out on Sundays.
Speaker 2: The very first one, I'm not sure when it's going
Speaker 2: to come out. Full disclosure, we were recording it on Monday,
Speaker 2: So if there's a devastating quarterback injury or something crazy happens,
Speaker 2: that won't be incorporated here. But the plan will be
Speaker 2: for these shows to come out at the end of
Speaker 2: every single week. We will record them typically as probably
Speaker 2: on Thursdays. They come out Fridays thereabouts and get you
Speaker 2: ready for your weekly picks. Now, our regular gambling show
Speaker 2: is going to be I'm going to give you five
Speaker 2: games a week that I will play. The commitment I
Speaker 2: have to you on this show is very simple. I
Speaker 2: will not suggest any bet that I am not making myself,
Speaker 2: which is why you're going to see on this show.
Speaker 2: I have some leans that I'm not betting, it's just
Speaker 2: how I'm leaning. Then I have the bets I'm actually making. Also,
Speaker 2: so today's show is going to be all season long
Speaker 2: future stuff, which, by the way, if you're just starting
Speaker 2: to dip your toe in the gambling waters, as my
Speaker 2: co host Demanse started to do during the NBA season,
Speaker 2: I would strongly recommend season long futures. And here's why.
Speaker 2: It allows you to feel like you have action every
Speaker 2: single week without having to bet games every single week.
Speaker 2: If you were to mirror me on these bets for that,
Speaker 2: I'm going to give out over the next half hour.
Speaker 2: If it were if they were all on a ten
Speaker 2: dollars scale, it would cost you around two hundred bucks.
Speaker 2: If they were on one hundred dollars scale, it would
Speaker 2: cost you around two thousand dollars. They're on a thousand
Speaker 2: dollars scale, would cost around twenty grand. Again, we're not
Speaker 2: going to talk about bet sizes throughout the year. We're
Speaker 2: just going to give you picks. But because it is
Speaker 2: important to me that the audience understands that I'm being
Speaker 2: transparent here on this, because unlike a lot of the
Speaker 2: gambling shows out there, not only am I making all
Speaker 2: these bets, I am I am sweating them with you.
Speaker 2: I have allocated for the preseason portion of the Gamble,
Speaker 2: the NFL gambling thing, all of these bets will be
Speaker 2: on one thousand dollars scale. On my end, I would
Speaker 2: say that's probably a little rich for most people's blood.
Speaker 2: I have a good job in a bit of a
Speaker 2: gambling problem, so for my blood it's just right. But
Speaker 2: you can have the same fun, whether one hundred dollars,
Speaker 2: fifty dollars, whatever it is. But just when you're because
Speaker 2: you also have to before we even get to it.
Speaker 2: And all the lines come from fox Bet all year long.
Speaker 2: All our lines will come from fox Bet, So if
Speaker 2: you see them somewhere elsewhere, just know our lines come
Speaker 2: from fox Bet, and they are as current and as
Speaker 2: latest as when I made the wager, But the point
Speaker 2: I was making is you've got to on season long futures,
Speaker 2: You've got to really think about the juice on it,
Speaker 2: the viig on it, because that's what can kill you.
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna lay all that out over the next
Speaker 2: thirty or so minutes. Demonsay in the first segment, what
Speaker 2: we're gonna do is we're gonna talk about season win totals.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna give you the ones I'm leaning on than
Speaker 2: the ones I'm betting on. You jump in at any
Speaker 2: time if you have a question, concern, disagreement. But for
Speaker 2: the most part, unlike our regular show, this is gonna
Speaker 2: be similar to our fifty Greatest Players show, where it
Speaker 2: is a lot more of me than me and Demonsey
Speaker 2: going back and forth because demanse God Blessed does not
Speaker 2: have a twenty five year history of betting NFL games
Speaker 2: the way I do. So this is this is where
Speaker 2: we're doing it.
Speaker 3: So we'll get to and win ten thousand dollars off
Speaker 3: of you one time. Though let's not forget about that.
Speaker 2: You did. You did win ten thousand dollars off of
Speaker 2: me one time. That is true. You know what I'm
Speaker 2: not gonna let you sour my mood when I'm this
Speaker 2: excited about the NFL season being here. Okay, season long
Speaker 2: win totals, these are ones that I thought about betting.
Speaker 2: I did not bet, but if I were to, if
Speaker 2: you were to say, give me a pick Arizona, the
Speaker 2: total was eight and a half, I was already leaning under.
Speaker 2: It jumped to nine and a half. Now that would
Speaker 2: be a heavy under for me. I don't trust the
Speaker 2: management there. I don't trust the roster construction as a whole.
Speaker 2: They have a lot of older, higher priced players, particularly
Speaker 2: on the defensive side of the ball. DeAndre Hopkins is
Speaker 2: suspended for the beginning of the year. We know Cliff's
Speaker 2: history late in the year, we know Kyler's history late
Speaker 2: in the year. I would lean to the under. I
Speaker 2: was leaning under eight and a half. When I saw
Speaker 2: it there at nine and a half, I absolutely would
Speaker 2: lean under. But I'm not gonna bet it because there
Speaker 2: is the possibility that Kyler, you know now that he
Speaker 2: has to study film, is gonna be even better. I
Speaker 2: don't there, and the NFC is soft enough that even
Speaker 2: if that division beats him up, I'm not betting it. Carolina,
Speaker 2: I lean the over, you get the over six and
Speaker 2: a half at plus money. I lean the over because
Speaker 2: I think the NFC South is going to be weaker
Speaker 2: than people believe. I like Baker, and if Christian McCaffrey's healthy,
Speaker 2: that team could be interesting. If Christian McCaffrey healthy, part
Speaker 2: is though a huge concern, and I don't like their coach.
Speaker 2: If you don't like their coach and they have a
Speaker 2: major injury concern, you don't really want to be betting
Speaker 2: the over. But I lean the over six and a
Speaker 2: half with Carolina Cleveland. I would be betting the under
Speaker 2: eight and a half with Cleveland if it wasn't for
Speaker 2: the sake that you gotta lay minus one sixty on
Speaker 2: the juice. That's too much. But I don't like Cleveland
Speaker 2: as a playoff team. I don't believe in them this year.
Speaker 2: I don't believe in the general aura of the franchise
Speaker 2: post to Shaan Watson, so I lean under there Denver,
Speaker 2: was it nine and a half at you could get
Speaker 2: the under it plus money. It's now at ten and
Speaker 2: a half, but you don't get the plus money on
Speaker 2: it anymore. I leaned under at nine and a half.
Speaker 2: I probably would bet the under at ten and a half,
Speaker 2: depending on the juice, but I'm gonna have enough emotional
Speaker 2: and reputational investment in Denver not being good. I don't
Speaker 2: also need financial investment in it because I'm fading Russell
Speaker 2: Wilson so hard. So again, that's a lean Vegas. I
Speaker 2: lean under eight and a half. But the one of
Speaker 2: the reasons I'm not betting either one of those Denver
Speaker 2: or Vegas is it's like you're gonna bet both those
Speaker 2: teams in the same division. One of them is probably
Speaker 2: gonna be a little better than I thought, but I
Speaker 2: would lean under there. New Orleans was at eight and
Speaker 2: a half. It dropped to seven and a half. So
Speaker 2: now it's a true stay away because I was leaning
Speaker 2: under there. That's I like their defense, I like their skill. Guys.
Speaker 2: Dennis Allen, his career record in the NFL has he
Speaker 2: has coached thirty six games. He has won eight of them.
Speaker 2: He is literally one of the worst coaches from a
Speaker 2: record standpoint in the history of professional football. So I
Speaker 2: would just blindly take the under there, but I'm gonna
Speaker 2: stay away from it. In the last one, Pittsburgh's total
Speaker 2: is seven and a half. I lean the over because
Speaker 2: of Tomlin. Tomlin has never finished below five hundred. Ever.
Speaker 2: He has won eight or more games every single year.
Speaker 2: Last year they somehow made the playoffs. They might be
Speaker 2: better at quarterback this year, even if they're starting Trubisky
Speaker 2: or Picket, just because Big Ben so bad last year?
Speaker 3: What's up throwing dimes?
Speaker 2: Well, I don't know if he's going to be throwing dimes,
Speaker 2: but Big Ben was throwing ducks. So I would lean
Speaker 2: the over, but not enough to actually bet it. Okay,
Speaker 2: here are the There are seven of these that I'm
Speaker 2: actually betting. Okay, if it's on one hundred dollars scale,
Speaker 2: these seven bets would cost you one thousand and fifteen
Speaker 2: dollars for a maximum return of one thousand, eight hundred
Speaker 2: and thirty dollars, which would be a profit of eight
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty eight, eight hundred and fifteen dollars. Pardon me,
Speaker 2: we will go one by one? Indeed, is it nine
Speaker 2: and a half? I am strongly on the over now,
Speaker 2: A lot of America seems to because it's minus one sixty.
Speaker 2: You typically would not want to lay that type of
Speaker 2: juice on a season win total. But I don't see
Speaker 2: any scenario the Colts don't win at least ten games.
Speaker 2: I love that over they have the best quarterback Frank
Speaker 2: Reich's ever had. Last year, they were better than the
Speaker 2: record suggested because they melted down at the end of
Speaker 2: the year. Emotionally, I think it is such an upgrade
Speaker 2: the fact that they unlike their other divisional rival, Tennessee.
Speaker 2: So Tennessee and Indy both their seasons ended thanks to
Speaker 2: quarterback meltdowns at the end. Tennessee ran it back with
Speaker 2: their quarterback. Indy got rid of theirs and brought in
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan, who's obviously is a long history of playing
Speaker 2: in domes, playing in soft divisions, and carving them up
Speaker 2: to a degree. So I think Tennessee is going to
Speaker 2: have a hangover emotionally from last year. I think Indy
Speaker 2: looks at it like we've got the maniac whose name
Speaker 2: used to be Darius Leonard, but now he's Shaquille Leonard.
Speaker 2: That threw me off, by the way, I didn't get
Speaker 2: that press release that he was going by Shaquille. Now
Speaker 2: everyone's talking about Shaquille Leonard's like, who the hell is that?
Speaker 2: Then I found out Darius his name was Darius Shaquille
Speaker 2: Leonard or Shaquille, Darius Leonard whatever. He had always gone
Speaker 2: by Darius, now he goes by Shaquille. Doesn't matter. He's
Speaker 2: one of the best linebackers in the entire NFL. They
Speaker 2: have him. They obviously have an excellent offensive line. They
Speaker 2: might have the best running back in football now they
Speaker 2: have Matt Ryan. I wish they had better receivers, but
Speaker 2: they have a soft schedule. I wish they could man
Speaker 2: and not I wish. I think there's an outside chance
Speaker 2: Indy finishes with the best record in the AFC. Now
Speaker 2: that they're the best team in the AFC, but now
Speaker 2: outside chance they finished with the best record. I love them,
Speaker 2: love them over nine and a half. That's our first
Speaker 2: official actual bet. The next one another team in that
Speaker 2: division that I like going over the Jacksonville Jaguars. So
Speaker 2: over six and a half you get plus money plus
Speaker 2: one fifteen. I think Drevor Lawrence is going to be
Speaker 2: a top five quarterback in the league at some point.
Speaker 2: Doug Peterson is not a perfect head coach, but he
Speaker 2: did win a Super Bowl with Nick Foles. He did
Speaker 2: get excuse me, a near MVP season out of Carson Wentz,
Speaker 2: and he is clear he worked with Andy Reid. He
Speaker 2: is clearly good with offenses. Now. The Jags overpaid for
Speaker 2: their receivers, but they upgraded there, so they have three
Speaker 2: quality receivers. A quarterback I believe in Travis Etien, who
Speaker 2: is their high draftic last year, got hurt before the
Speaker 2: season even started. They have they have him. They have
Speaker 2: him to go alongside Trevor Lawrence, who was his college teammate,
Speaker 2: a number one pick of the draft. On defensive end.
Speaker 2: This year, I think they're going to be around five
Speaker 2: hundred line looking like, well, not great. You can't fix
Speaker 2: it all on one offseason. It's a good question. The
Speaker 2: Jaguars offensive line is not one that I'm necessarily overly
Speaker 2: excited about. I do think. Am I tripping on this?
Speaker 2: Let me let me check to make sure. I I
Speaker 2: think they had one major offseason addition on offensive line.
Speaker 2: Are they the guy? Are they the team that got
Speaker 2: sheriff from Washington? I think they are. So they added
Speaker 2: a great guard, but they still obviously need Yeah, they
Speaker 2: did get Brandishure from Washington. Be a free agency, so listen,
Speaker 2: they're spending money, which you need to do. They are
Speaker 2: the Urban Meyer era. Let's just call it, you know,
Speaker 2: unfortunate they get to turn the page on that. I
Speaker 2: believe in Trevor Lawrence. I'm a strong over on them.
Speaker 2: Kansas City's ten and a half. It's minus one fifteen.
Speaker 2: They've won twelve games or more every year Mahomes has
Speaker 2: been the quarterback. The idea that the Chiefs are going
Speaker 2: to be ten and seven is a ludicrous to me.
Speaker 2: Last year was supposed to be the year from hell.
Speaker 2: They went twelve and five. I don't need even to
Speaker 2: explain this. Go ahead, do you want to jump in?
Speaker 3: No, I was only going to pick at you for
Speaker 3: a second.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, pick at me.
Speaker 3: I got the fourth best quarterback, third best quarterback in
Speaker 3: the league.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, the eighth best player, third best quarterback in
Speaker 2: the NFL top one hundred. That's correct that. I like
Speaker 2: the addition of Juju. I like the draft picks sky more.
Speaker 2: I like the defensive editions they made. I didn't know
Speaker 2: they added Juju. Yeah that's crazy. Yeah, wow, the demon
Speaker 2: has been locked into the NBA. Yeah, and added Juju. See.
Speaker 2: This is why there was at one point, sorry, I'm
Speaker 2: gonna pull the curtain back a bit, when we were
Speaker 2: discussing how we're gonna do the NFL gambling show. The
Speaker 2: producers were like, why don't maybe you can do picks
Speaker 2: and Demons can do picks, And I said to him,
Speaker 2: I said, here's the deal. Demonse is not as locked
Speaker 2: into the NFL as he was the NBA. He will
Speaker 2: be by the end of the year. But you're gonna
Speaker 2: definitely probably watch more NFL than I've ever watched in
Speaker 2: my life, There's no question about it. Which, by the way,
Speaker 2: there is no judgment here. It literally hasn't been your
Speaker 2: job until right now. And you didn't play football growing up.
Speaker 2: You didn't love it the way I did, even though
Speaker 2: I didn't play it either, but I loved it growing up,
Speaker 2: So no judgment there. But this is the you know,
Speaker 2: Demons having the light bulb moment. The Chiefs got ju
Speaker 2: Ju Smith Schuster as where ten days before the season starts.
Speaker 2: Is why we're not gonna grace you with his football picks,
Speaker 2: just mine and he's gonna chime in. But I listen.
Speaker 2: I like their additions on defense that you wake me
Speaker 2: up when the Chiefs don't win twelve games. So I'm
Speaker 2: gonna take the over New England. So that's three overs
Speaker 2: I've done. New England's at eight and a half. I
Speaker 2: am strongly on the under. They have the most expensive
Speaker 2: wide receiver corps in the NFL and they don't have
Speaker 2: a number one. They have the second most expensive tight
Speaker 2: end group in the NFL and they don't have a
Speaker 2: number one. They are spending seventy two million dollars against
Speaker 2: the cap on those two positions. The league average is
Speaker 2: thirty six million. No other team is spending more than sixty.
Speaker 2: Only one other team is spending more than fifty. They're
Speaker 2: at seventy two million. They're at seventy two million without
Speaker 2: great players at it. They lost their best defensive player,
Speaker 2: they lost their entire offensive coaching staff. Mac Jones is
Speaker 2: out here in preseason getting frustrated. New England is a
Speaker 2: seven win team at best. Their total is eight and
Speaker 2: a half. I love the under on the Patriots Baltimore.
Speaker 2: It was they were at ten and a half at
Speaker 2: even money. That's where I bet it. Full disclosure. They're
Speaker 2: now at nine and a half at minus money on
Speaker 2: the over. I'm over on Baltimore, by the way, that's
Speaker 2: where I bet it. So if I liked him over
Speaker 2: ten and a half, I love them over nine and
Speaker 2: a half. Even if you got to pay that juice.
Speaker 2: I think Baltimore and Indie are the two teams that
Speaker 2: I think are most likely to be the number one
Speaker 2: seed in the AFC this year. Doesn't mean they're the
Speaker 2: two teams I like the most to win the Super
Speaker 2: Bowl or to get to the Super Bowl. But as
Speaker 2: far as strong regular season, Baltimore dealt with devastating injuries
Speaker 2: all year. The question with Baltimore is, and maybe by
Speaker 2: the time you guys hear this, he will have. Is
Speaker 2: Lamar really going to play out this year without his contract?
Speaker 2: I mean, he's still and signed a new deal, so
Speaker 2: I don't know how that will affect him. I don't
Speaker 2: think it'll affect him. Baltimore's eight and three last year,
Speaker 2: despite all the injuries before Lamar got dinged. I love
Speaker 2: Baltimore winning at least eleven games this year. I love it.
Speaker 2: Did you want to chime in? It looked like you
Speaker 2: had something you want to say, You're not obligated? No, no, okay.
Speaker 2: The Lamar thing with no contract just sparked my interest.
Speaker 2: I didn't even know you could play well. No, no, no,
Speaker 2: So I said it wrong. He has a contract without
Speaker 2: a contract, extant exten Okay, yeah, this is the final
Speaker 2: year of his contract right now. They did that once
Speaker 2: a decade ago with Joe Flacco. Flaco ended up having
Speaker 2: the best year of his career, won the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: They ended up signing him to a ridiculous deal and
Speaker 2: they never were any good after that because until Lamar
Speaker 2: got there, because they had overpaid him. But Lamar seems
Speaker 2: to be playing by his own you know, a different
Speaker 2: drummer here when it was the contract stuff. More power
Speaker 2: to him. I hope he says healthy. I like Baltimore
Speaker 2: over ten and a half, all right, the Giants. I
Speaker 2: bet them under seven and a half and I paid
Speaker 2: heavy juice of minus one forty five. The line has
Speaker 2: now moved to six and a half if you want
Speaker 2: to bet the under and you get plus money on it.
Speaker 2: Either way, I like it. I don't know if I
Speaker 2: disclosure at full disclosure. I don't know if I would
Speaker 2: have betted at six and a half, but I hammered
Speaker 2: it at seven and a half. The Giants are just
Speaker 2: a bad team. They might be Kenny Galladay. As of recording,
Speaker 2: who's the most expensive receiver in the league this year?
Speaker 2: As a capital One of the three most is in
Speaker 2: risk of getting cut from the team even though he
Speaker 2: has eighteen million guaranteed because he's been so unimpressive in
Speaker 2: training camp. Daniel Jones is still Daniel Jones. I like
Speaker 2: their new head coach, Dable, who obviously was the coordinator
Speaker 2: with Josh Allen. I don't like their roster. They are.
Speaker 2: What they need is Saquon to have a monster year.
Speaker 2: Saquon might be snake bit by the NFL injury bug.
Speaker 2: More of the story is I love them under seven
Speaker 2: and a half. I like them under six and a half.
Speaker 2: I loved them enough under seven and a half. I
Speaker 2: paid the one forty five juice and now my final
Speaker 2: this is another one where I paid minus one forty
Speaker 2: five my final season win total the Niners. The Niners
Speaker 2: over nine and a half. Trey Lance is going to
Speaker 2: have some growing games by the end of the year.
Speaker 2: He will be better than Jimmy Garoppolo was. So can
Speaker 2: they survive the beginning of the year with him. My
Speaker 2: answer to that is unequivocally yes. Because they have an
Speaker 2: excellent defense. They should have the league's best running game,
Speaker 2: or they in Baltimore should have the league's best running games.
Speaker 2: They got Deebo signed and they start the year off,
Speaker 2: in my opinion, with five games. Five of their first
Speaker 2: six games are some of the well four of their
Speaker 2: first six games are some of the projected worst teams
Speaker 2: in football. They are at the Bears, home for the Seahawks,
Speaker 2: at the Broncos, tough home for the Rams. Tough, but
Speaker 2: historically Shannon has owned McVeigh until that NFC championship game,
Speaker 2: then at the Panthers at the Falcons. So even if
Speaker 2: Trey Lance is shaky to start, they should be four
Speaker 2: and two no matter what, could be five and one,
Speaker 2: and that gives you such a cushion to getting to
Speaker 2: what they need as ten wins. I love the Niners
Speaker 2: in the regular season. I like them even more in
Speaker 2: the postseason, as you're going to hear, so, what's up?
Speaker 3: Hell, are there any of these that you like more
Speaker 3: than the other ones?
Speaker 2: Well, of the ones I've given, and I said at
Speaker 2: the beginning there were seven, there's actually eight. I've given
Speaker 2: you seven because I saved one that I like the most.
Speaker 2: For last of the ones I've given, INDYEKC and San
Speaker 2: Francisco would be my three favorites. Now. I don't bet
Speaker 2: more unwed than others in My history on that is
Speaker 2: I could end up, you know, having eight season win
Speaker 2: totals getting six right too wrong. But the one I
Speaker 2: went heaviest on is the one I got wrong, and
Speaker 2: it screws up my ability to be profitable. So I
Speaker 2: bet all these standard unit size right. But my if
Speaker 2: I were to pick one I like more than any
Speaker 2: of the rest and bet just one, Indy would be
Speaker 2: a second place, Casey would be third place. San Francis
Speaker 2: would be fourth place. My absolute favorite one is the
Speaker 2: team everyone loves. I think they are the favorites to
Speaker 2: win the Super Bowl. They're certainly the favorites in the NFC,
Speaker 2: and that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. To be under
Speaker 2: eleven and a half wins. First of all, that is
Speaker 2: a crazy high total. Eleven and a half is the
Speaker 2: highest total on the board. No team is it twelve
Speaker 2: and a half or thirteen and a half. You do
Speaker 2: have to pay a decent juice of minus one forty five.
Speaker 2: But given Brady's disposition, given the injuries on the offensive line,
Speaker 2: given the uncertainty of their new head coach, the fact
Speaker 2: that Tampa has the highest win total of any team
Speaker 2: in the league is crazy. Now part of that's because
Speaker 2: everyone knows that Atlanta's gonna stink. They're correct on that.
Speaker 2: Everyone believes Carolina is going to be awful. I'm not
Speaker 2: sure they're right on it. They could be right on that,
Speaker 2: but I'm not sure they're right on that. And New
Speaker 2: Orleans people are ambivalent on but New Orleans. The one
Speaker 2: thing New Orleans are the last couple of years, has
Speaker 2: done that nobody else in the league has done is
Speaker 2: kick Brady's ass. The three and one against him in
Speaker 2: the regular season, and he's had some of his worst games.
Speaker 2: So I don't think the division is quite as easy
Speaker 2: as people believe it's going to be. I also think
Speaker 2: that Brady, even when he's with the Patriots, historically his
Speaker 2: worst month was September and then he got better as
Speaker 2: the year went on. Well, the Bucks first four games
Speaker 2: at Dallas at the Saints, home for the Packers, home
Speaker 2: for the Chiefs. I said the other day, I think
Speaker 2: they're starting one in three over the first four now Dallas. No,
Speaker 2: Tyron Smith is a big loss for them, but set
Speaker 2: that aside. They've got to get If they do start
Speaker 2: one and three, I win the bet with three more
Speaker 2: losses from tam Is eleven and six. I win the
Speaker 2: bet if I'm under eleven and a half. The rest
Speaker 2: of their schedule Falcons at the Steelers, that's tough, at
Speaker 2: the Panthers, home for the Ravens, home for the Rams,
Speaker 2: back to back tough ones. From now, we'ret three tough
Speaker 2: ones home for Seattle, at Cleveland, home for the Saints,
Speaker 2: at the Niners, home for the Bengals, at the Cardinals
Speaker 2: where they wrap up with Panthers and Falcons. I just
Speaker 2: think this is eleven and six, ten and seventeen. I
Speaker 2: think that's probably enough to win that division, and maybe
Speaker 2: by the end of the year Brady feels better than
Speaker 2: he seems to feel right now. But Brady's press conference,
Speaker 2: Brady's time away from the team, the injuries on the
Speaker 2: offensive line, the uncertainty at tight end with Gronk retiring,
Speaker 2: the losses on defense. This is not a twelve win
Speaker 2: team to me, and I win the bet if they
Speaker 2: don't win twelve games. So my favorite of them all
Speaker 2: is this one right here, Tampa under eleven and a half,
Speaker 2: even though I got to pay the minus one forty
Speaker 2: five Jews. Okay, there's our season long win totals. We
Speaker 2: will come back with some make or miss playoff bets,
Speaker 2: and then we will wrap up with our Super Bowl
Speaker 2: pick and a fifty to one long shot Super Bowl pick.
Speaker 2: All of that coming up on our first NFL gambling
Speaker 2: show of the year.
Speaker 4: This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable. Discover the
Speaker 4: inspiring true story about Anthony Roebliss, who defined every expectation
Speaker 4: to become a national wrestling champion, and Unstoppable, a new
Speaker 4: original movie from Amazon MGM Studios and director William Goldenberg,
Speaker 4: evoking the excitement and camaraderie of classic sports dramas and
Speaker 4: thrilling wrestling matches. Unstoppable features an all star ensemble cast
Speaker 4: including Jirell Jerome, Jennifer Lopez, Don Cheatle, Michael Panya, and
Speaker 4: Bobby Canavali. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video.
Speaker 2: All Right, Welcome back in What's Right, Nick Wright, Episode
Speaker 2: number sixty five, our first NFL gambling show of the year.
Speaker 2: We did our season win totals. Now to mons. We're
Speaker 2: gonna make miss playoff bets, and some of these are
Speaker 2: gonna be correlated with the win totals. Most probably the
Speaker 2: first one I'm gonna get to I took under on
Speaker 2: the Patriots. I'm gonna bet them to miss the playoffs,
Speaker 2: but the rest of them. This is how I kind
Speaker 2: of like to try to diversify my preseason gambling, because
Speaker 2: if I take over on the Chiefs and them to
Speaker 2: make the playoffs all those things, then you are one
Speaker 2: injury or one bad pick away from having you know,
Speaker 2: a kind of a domino effect on your bets. But
Speaker 2: where I'm not worried about that is the New England Patriots.
Speaker 2: The Patriots to miss the playoffs. When I bet it,
Speaker 2: it was minus one ninety eight and eight to me.
Speaker 2: Why would I lay two to one, you know, against
Speaker 2: me on a bet like this, Because I see no
Speaker 2: scenario that exists in the world where New England makes
Speaker 2: the playoffs. I would have laid minus two fifty on it.
Speaker 2: I know they made the playoffs last year. The fact
Speaker 2: of the matter is they have had the least impressive
Speaker 2: preseason of a team that matters. They had a bad
Speaker 2: offseason where they traded away their best interior lineman for
Speaker 2: a mid round pick, they lost their best defensive player
Speaker 2: for nothing in free agency, and they have all these
Speaker 2: guys they signed last offseason, none of whom were overly
Speaker 2: impressive their tight ends and receivers who are now just
Speaker 2: more expensive. Mac Jones seems frustrated they don't have an
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator. I'm not afraid of their defense. So New
Speaker 2: England to miss the playoffs, so no doubter. Even though
Speaker 2: I got I laid minus one ninety eight, I think
Speaker 2: it's now like around minus one to eighty. Denver missing
Speaker 2: the playoffs. I got it at plus one twenty. This
Speaker 2: is about that's insane. What's insane?
Speaker 3: Since you got Denver missing the playoffs at plus one twenty.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're favored to make the playoffs, so I got
Speaker 2: them at plus money to miss the playoffs. Yeah, the
Speaker 2: world loves Denver right now? Man, go ahead?
Speaker 3: Yeah no, I think I was thinking about the best
Speaker 3: the inverse way. But uh but no, that's I mean,
Speaker 3: they're gonna make th RUSI as corny as you want.
Speaker 2: But okay, so, oh so you think the other So
Speaker 2: you're with America, you think they'll make the playoffs.
Speaker 3: I definitely believe that they can make the playoffs.
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, so yeah, so you that's why. So I'm
Speaker 2: getting plus money on it because what they're saying is
Speaker 2: I'm betting something that's less than fifty percent likely to happen. Right,
Speaker 2: I don't see how Denver makes the playoffs. So here's
Speaker 2: what's happening with Denver. Everyone is assigning them all of
Speaker 2: these offensive upgrades, which I understand. They go from Drew
Speaker 2: Locke to Russell Wilson. They are not acknowledging the defensive
Speaker 2: down grades of They had Von Miller for part of
Speaker 2: the year last year. They don't have him for any
Speaker 2: of the year this year. They had Vic Fango as
Speaker 2: their head coach. Now Vic Fango wasn't a great head coach,
Speaker 2: but he's great at defensive side of the ball. They've
Speaker 2: now replaced him with an offensive head coach has never
Speaker 2: coached Nathaniel Hackett. It's never been a head coach before.
Speaker 2: So that's a problem. They're in the toughest division in
Speaker 2: the NFL. That's a I don't think Russell Wilson's been
Speaker 2: good the last couple of years. That's a problem. You
Speaker 2: also could win ten games and miss the playoffs in
Speaker 2: the AFC this year, case is going to be excellent,
Speaker 2: Buffalo's going to be excellent. Someone's going to win the AFC.
Speaker 2: South to say it's one team, there's one team there, Baltimore, Cincinnati,
Speaker 2: and the Chargers. To me, there are six teams already
Speaker 2: clearly better than Denver. So then you have Miami, you
Speaker 2: have Pittsburgh, you have the non AFC South winner call
Speaker 2: it the Titans, and you have the Raiders, all fighting
Speaker 2: with Denver for the last playoff spot. I don't think
Speaker 2: Denver makes it. I love it at plus money. Denver
Speaker 2: plus one twenty is where I got it. Cleveland missing
Speaker 2: the playoffs. It was on the board, it's now off
Speaker 2: the board. I got it at minus one seventy. That's
Speaker 2: a no brainer as well. You're starting Jacoby Brissett for
Speaker 2: eleven games. Then when Deshaun comes back, he will have
Speaker 2: not played in nearly two years. To me, that's an
Speaker 2: easy one. I love Cleveland to miss the playoffs. They weren't,
Speaker 2: They're not. To me, they are likely going to finish
Speaker 2: last in their own division. Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh. Like to me,
Speaker 2: that's a very obvious one. That's why you have to
Speaker 2: la minus one seventy. Now to some exotics, so Seattle,
Speaker 2: the Jets and Atlanta, Is there any scenario any of
Speaker 2: those three make the playoffs? I say no, Seattle is
Speaker 2: starting Gino Smith and in a brutal division, the Jets
Speaker 2: are starting Joe Flacco until Zach Wilson gets back, and
Speaker 2: Atlanta is in a full on rebuild teardown with all
Speaker 2: the dead money from Julio and Matt Ryan to try
Speaker 2: to get this thing started up next year. They're even
Speaker 2: gonna start Desmond ridd or the rookie at some point
Speaker 2: for Marcus Mariota. Those three teams are essentially locks to
Speaker 2: miss the playoffs. You add New England to that bet.
Speaker 2: This is where I'm being a little risky because I
Speaker 2: have the Patriots under I have the Patriots miss the playoffs,
Speaker 2: and I have the Patriots in this parlay. So if
Speaker 2: the Patriots have a great year, it screws three of
Speaker 2: my bets, but I will fade the Patriots happily, so Seattle,
Speaker 2: the Jets, in Atlanta, and New England to miss the
Speaker 2: playoffs comes in at almost exactly even money minus one
Speaker 2: oh five. So that is what some would argue is
Speaker 2: I should replace my New England missus playoffs bet with
Speaker 2: just this one instead. This is essentially two ways to
Speaker 2: bet the same thing, and this one I'm getting it
Speaker 2: at almost even money because I see no scenario Seattle,
Speaker 2: Atlanta or the Jets make it. Tack New England on
Speaker 2: there and we're at minus one oh five.
Speaker 3: What is it without New England?
Speaker 2: Oh no, you're fine. I looked that up yesterday. Let
Speaker 2: me let me look it up again real quick. It's
Speaker 2: not good. It's like minus six hundred something. It's something
Speaker 2: to where one hundred dollars bet would win you like
Speaker 2: twenty bucks. I can look it up exactly here in
Speaker 2: just a moment, but it's it was not I What
Speaker 2: I did was I made the Seattle the Jets and
Speaker 2: Atlanta missed the playoffs. I put that in and saw
Speaker 2: what the juice was at, and then saw what team
Speaker 2: do I need to add to have this, you know,
Speaker 2: to have this worked out. Let me just hold on,
Speaker 2: let me just see what it is just those three
Speaker 2: real quick. I can do that quickly here Atlanta, the
Speaker 2: Jets in Seattle. It is. It's not minus six hundred.
Speaker 2: It's minus three thirty. So you could put a ton
Speaker 2: of money down and try to get but minus three
Speaker 2: thirty is a lot. I just I like it more
Speaker 2: than the way I have it. It's not a terrible bet.
Speaker 2: What you're suggesting but minus three thirty on a three
Speaker 2: team future seems unwise. Right. One last make miss playoffs parlay,
Speaker 2: So I gave you all these teams. I think it's
Speaker 2: gonna miss. This is a four team make playoff parlay.
Speaker 2: Kansas City makes it every year. Of course they're gonna
Speaker 2: make it. They have Patrick Mahomes. Baltimore, they missed it
Speaker 2: last year thanks to all the injuries, but I think
Speaker 2: they're gonna be fine. Indy, you know how I am
Speaker 2: on Indy and the Niners, Casey Baltimore, Indy and the
Speaker 2: Niners four forty one at plus four forty one.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 2: So that's the one of only two like real long
Speaker 2: shots that I have. Well, it's the only long shot
Speaker 2: I have on the make miss playoffs stuff. And it's
Speaker 2: because it's a fourteen parlay. That is not a sharp bet.
Speaker 2: Doing a fourteen parlay is just in and of itself,
Speaker 2: not a sharp bet. But I believe in those four teams.
Speaker 2: I don't think Baltimore's gonna go back back years without
Speaker 2: making the playoffs. I don't think Indy's gonna go back
Speaker 2: back years out making the playoffs. I don't think can't
Speaker 2: see or San Francisco's gonna fall out of the playoffs.
Speaker 2: I get plus four forty one. If you're into these
Speaker 2: long shots. We're gonna wrap the show with a division
Speaker 2: winner Parlay and a conference winner Parlay that pay well.
Speaker 2: The returns are massive. We will do that to wrap
Speaker 2: up our gambling show, first one of the year. Next,
Speaker 2: all right, welcome back in What's Right, Nick Right? Final
Speaker 2: segment of episode sixty five, our first gambling show of
Speaker 2: the year. We've given you your season win totals, we've
Speaker 2: given you our make miss playoff bets. Now two fun ones,
Speaker 2: two flyers that'll be fun to sweat throughout the year.
Speaker 2: A division winner Parlay and a conference winner Parlay. Another
Speaker 2: way to put a conference winter Parlay is exact super
Speaker 2: Bowl matchup. So AFC Division winner Parlay. And we are
Speaker 2: leaving the AFC North out of it because we like Baltimore,
Speaker 2: but we're already pretty invested in Baltimore. Cincinnati, though, could
Speaker 2: win the division Baltimore so we can make the playoffs.
Speaker 2: And who knows. I don't believe in Kenny Pickett, but
Speaker 2: maybe Kenny Pickett takes that starting job in Pittsburgh. They
Speaker 2: have that great defense already, great coach, so I'm leaving
Speaker 2: them out of it. Buffalo is winning the AFC East.
Speaker 2: Even if Miami has an awesome year, there's no way
Speaker 2: they're having a better record than Buffalo. Buffalo is winning
Speaker 2: the AFCAS. I'm on Casey to win the AFC West.
Speaker 2: I'm on Indy to win the AFC South. Those three
Speaker 2: conference winner division winners put together is plus five fifty eight.
Speaker 2: Those are the three favorites in those divisions, by the way,
Speaker 2: and what could bite me, well, what could bite me
Speaker 2: is obviously an injury to Lamar. In injury to any
Speaker 2: of the quarterbacks would ruin me, There's no doubt about that.
Speaker 2: But set the injury stuff away.
Speaker 3: Those three teams that you just listed, if their favorites,
Speaker 3: why is.
Speaker 2: This plus five because they all have to happen. Okay,
Speaker 2: it's one of those, because it's even if they're the favorites.
Speaker 2: Once you start adding other uncorrelated events, your return parlay stuff, Yep,
Speaker 2: that parlay stuff there the monesday and I had a
Speaker 2: little little gambling NFL gambling gambling camp. But he's coming
Speaker 2: around exactly right. So Buffalo, Indian, Casey to all win
Speaker 2: their divisions, it's plus five point fifty eight. I like it,
Speaker 2: and now I'm supposed to save this for the TV show.
Speaker 2: Don't put this part on social because the TV folks
Speaker 2: are going to be mad at me. And at this point,
Speaker 2: by the way, when you guys see this, you know,
Speaker 2: TV show back next week Tuesday, three pm, our new
Speaker 2: time slot every day Monday's Labor Day. But we are
Speaker 2: back with the whole new FS one lineup, Craig Carton
Speaker 2: in the morning where we used to be, then Undisputed,
Speaker 2: then the Herd, then Us at three pm, then Acho
Speaker 2: and everyone right on right after the reason I'm saying
Speaker 2: and everyone is I'm recording this before the actual official announcement,
Speaker 2: and I think I know who everyone with OCHO is,
Speaker 2: but I'm not certain, but you guys will know. I'm
Speaker 2: not trying to leave those folks out. But so I
Speaker 2: should be saving the Super Bowl pick for the TV show,
Speaker 2: but you've made it. Thirty five minutes into our final
Speaker 2: podcast of the week, to our gambling show. My Super
Speaker 2: Bowl pick is Chiefs Niners. If you bet the Chiefs
Speaker 2: win the AFC and the Niners to win the NFC
Speaker 2: to rematch, by the way, Super Bowl from a few
Speaker 2: years ago, that is plus five thousand, fifty to one
Speaker 2: for the Chiefs win the AFC and the Niners win
Speaker 2: the NFC. So there it is. So if we are
Speaker 2: to look at this entire sheet, everything that I did
Speaker 2: on it, our season win totals. Again, if you are
Speaker 2: one hundred dollars better, you allocated one thousand and fifteen
Speaker 2: dollars for a total return of one thousand, eight hundred
Speaker 2: and thirty dollars, which obviously would be a profit of
Speaker 2: eight hundred and fifteen dollars. Our make miss playoff bets,
Speaker 2: you allocated six hundred and seventy three dollars for a
Speaker 2: total return of one thousand, five hundred and thirty four dollars,
Speaker 2: or a profit of eight hundred and sixty one dollars. Oh,
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, No, no, no, that's the that is that's without
Speaker 2: the parlays in there. My apologies for the for the no, no, no,
Speaker 2: that's right, profit of eight thousand, six hundred and ten dollars.
Speaker 2: But the it's kind of screwed up as far as
Speaker 2: if you wanted to figure out what the juice was,
Speaker 2: because we have the one parlay and then on our
Speaker 2: conference super Bowl winners if you want to put or
Speaker 2: conference and division winners one hundred bucks on each. You
Speaker 2: would be risking two hundred dollars for a total return
Speaker 2: of five thousand, seven hundred and fifty eight dollars, or
Speaker 2: in other words, a profit of five thousand, five or
Speaker 2: five or yeah, five thousand, five hundred and fifty eight bucks.
Speaker 2: So there it is. So there it is. If you're
Speaker 2: one hundred dollars better, you're one hundred dollars better, and
Speaker 2: you want to put a couple grand down on the
Speaker 2: preseason bets, you're in for just under two thousand dollars.
Speaker 2: The total amount you'd have to allocate to follow me
Speaker 2: on all of these is I think one thousand, eight
Speaker 2: hundred and eighty bucks, which leaves you just enough for
Speaker 2: one for one hundred dollars long shot parlay or something
Speaker 2: if you'd like to do it. So there it is.
Speaker 2: Starting next week, we're gonna do five. We're gonna go
Speaker 2: through the entire NFL schedule every week. I'm gonna tell
Speaker 2: you the games stay away from. I'm gonna tell you
Speaker 2: the lines that look too good. I'm gonna tell you
Speaker 2: the lines that we just don't have enough information on.
Speaker 2: We're gonna do all of that and We're gonna narrow
Speaker 2: it down to our five picks of the week that
Speaker 2: is coming a week from now TV show back on Tuesday,
Speaker 2: back in a new studio, back in a new timeslot.
Speaker 2: Life's good. Fuck to you guys soon. Hey, thanks for
Speaker 2: watching Smash, Or just lightly tap that subscribe button. It
Speaker 2: all works the same to get more from the show
Speaker 2: and make sure you click Why don't you want to
Speaker 2: mash the bell too, guys, or just you know, lightly
Speaker 2: tap the bell to get notified every time new content drops.
Speaker 2: Check out full episodes of What's Right wherever you get
Speaker 2: your podcasts, or just hit the link in the description below.