1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:05,240 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. 3 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 2: Every business day, we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 4 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. Find 5 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:17,439 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever you 6 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 2: listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 7 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 3: Up next, I want to get straight to our next guest, 8 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 3: Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, who's going 9 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 3: to join us on zoom and Dana, I have to 10 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 3: get your thoughts because we are just coming off of 11 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 3: the data that we get got last week when it 12 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:37,200 Speaker 3: came to consumer confidence and rising to the highest level 13 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 3: since early twenty twenty two. How do you square that 14 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 3: away when a lot of the data say GDP was 15 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 3: revised higher for the second quarter coming and stronger than expected. 16 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 3: But then it seems like a lot of people, even 17 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:51,600 Speaker 3: if you exclude some of the sentiment gauges, still feel 18 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 3: a bit gloomy, especially when it comes to what is 19 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 3: ahead for the economy. 20 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 4: Sure, looking at the consumer confidence measure that the Conference 21 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:05,119 Speaker 4: Board produces, Yes, it did rise to the highest level 22 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 4: we've seen in some time. But if you look at 23 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 4: the series on a graph, it's been moving pretty much 24 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 4: in the same range, and it's a range that's below 25 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,680 Speaker 4: the peak that we saw last year and also well 26 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 4: below the pre pandemic twenty nineteen levels. When you look 27 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,679 Speaker 4: at the details, consumers are saying, well, things are okay 28 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 4: right now, I'm working, I have income, business conditions seem 29 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 4: to be okay. Looking to the future, they still expect 30 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 4: that maybe there's something negative around the quarter, maybe there's 31 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 4: a recession or a soft spot. 32 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 5: So talk to us then about this US manufacturing activity. 33 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 5: We just got this ISM data this morning. That's the 34 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 5: Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Gauge, an eighth month of 35 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 5: contraction here data. How happy is j Powell after seeing 36 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 5: those numbers or do you not necessarily look at that 37 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:01,640 Speaker 5: as a huge indicator of the macro picture here? 38 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 4: Well, factory activity is one important measure and certainly something 39 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 4: that we look at and include in our leading index. 40 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 4: And the reason why factory activity so weak is because 41 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 4: consumers are no longer buying goods and mass. That was 42 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 4: certainly the conditions during the pandemic where they couldn't go 43 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 4: out and enjoy services now they can enjoy services. So 44 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:27,800 Speaker 4: that's why we're seeing services purchasing Managers index indicators rising 45 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 4: and a lot of spending on services, which we saw 46 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 4: in last week's PCE report. I know you. 47 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 3: Also have the Conference Board's Leading Index, which has been 48 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 3: negative for fourteen consecutive months, and something rare to see 49 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 3: over the past half century. Typically when you've seen instances 50 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 3: like that, it's only happened in nineteen seventy four, nineteen eighty, 51 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 3: in two thousand and eight where you've seen that sort 52 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 3: of extreme time threshold there, But then the US economy 53 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 3: was actually already in a recession. What do you think 54 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:57,920 Speaker 3: this is telling us about the economy? 55 00:02:59,160 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 6: Sure? 56 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 4: What the leading is next tells us is that there's 57 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:06,800 Speaker 4: probably a recession starting right about now, which is the 58 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 4: third quarter of the year. And certainly because it's been 59 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 4: negative for so long, it does suggest that we will 60 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 4: see a soft spot where we are actually forecasting a recession, 61 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 4: but a short and shallow one. So the thing is 62 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 4: that when you look at current conditions, there's still signaling 63 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 4: that there's no recession. And that's why, and that's because 64 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 4: four out of the well two out of the four 65 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 4: indicators are linked to the labor market and incomes, and 66 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 4: we know the labor market's still doing well with incomes 67 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 4: arising on a real basis, so that's helping to support consumers. 68 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 4: But businesses certainly are feeling the pinch, certainly manufacturers because 69 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 4: there's less demand. And also many businesses are also looking 70 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 4: ahead of concern that there's something negative around the corner 71 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 4: and starting and they are definitely pulling back at least 72 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 4: on investments, if not on labor data. 73 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 5: I'm really curious about how how you rate the importance 74 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 5: of cumulative savings when it comes to the inflationary picture. 75 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 5: Here our Bloomberg economists crunch the numbers on this. They 76 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 5: show that the lowest forty percent of households in the 77 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 5: US have negative real excess cash balances. So just some 78 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 5: evidence there that the concerns about tons of stimulus really 79 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,720 Speaker 5: beefing up these consumer balance sheets may not necessarily have 80 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 5: the sticking power that we have been talking about it having. 81 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 5: What is your take on the importance of cumulative savings 82 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 5: and where those stand right now? 83 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 4: Well, during the pandemic, yes, you had those big injections 84 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 4: of stimulus for the lowest income families, they probably spend 85 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 4: it all, and that's why they have negative savings right now, 86 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 4: and they're using credit cards to get by, So that's 87 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:48,839 Speaker 4: what you're seeing there, and that kind of makes sense. 88 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 4: The thing is that it's really tough for the FED 89 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 4: to get at spending on services and people not spending 90 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 4: out of the sexcess savings because it's not something that 91 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 4: you finance, right, so even if you put something on 92 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,559 Speaker 4: a credit card, your credit card rate doesn't shift around 93 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:10,160 Speaker 4: with the FED funds rate. So we think an aggregate 94 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 4: the excess savings that people have, it's pretty much going 95 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 4: to run out by the fall. And again that's aggregate, 96 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 4: so that's including people who are across the income distribution, 97 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 4: so I think, you know, it's really still supporting savings 98 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:24,560 Speaker 4: as people who are probably in the middle of the 99 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 4: income distribution who did also receive stimulus checks, but all 100 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:33,039 Speaker 4: also working and seeing their incomes rise. So really the 101 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 4: FED needs to see weakening in the labor market of 102 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 4: companies taking down those job ads so that consumers feel Okay, well, 103 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 4: I don't have as many options, so maybe I'll just 104 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 4: sit tight, or maybe I'll pull back on my spending 105 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:46,480 Speaker 4: and that'll help bring that inflation. 106 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 3: How does oil play into this, because right now, if 107 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 3: we're looking at US cred prices treating around seventy dollars 108 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 3: a barrel, and overnight we did get that news obviously 109 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 3: with the Saudi's as well as Rush extending those oil 110 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 3: supply cuts. How much of a fuel do we would 111 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 3: need to see, no pun intended when it comes to 112 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 3: oil prices moving higher to then maybe exacerbate what we've 113 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 3: seen when it comes to the inflation dynamics like we 114 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 3: saw sale last summer, which obviously oil prices were treating 115 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 3: much higher when it comes to that, and what it 116 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 3: can mean for Americans in their pocketbooks. 117 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:20,840 Speaker 4: Sure right now and certainly in the in Friday's a 118 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:24,920 Speaker 4: PC inflation report, we saw that actually gasoline prices are 119 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 4: falling year on year, and when you go to the pump, 120 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 4: they're pretty low right now, prices for gasoline, and in fact, 121 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 4: many people are expecting lots of folks are going to 122 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 4: get out in their cars this holiday week. So any 123 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 4: increase or rather any decreases in supply, certainly we'll put 124 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:43,919 Speaker 4: up a pressure on prices, but that usually takes a 125 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 4: few months, and certainly that would not be a positive 126 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 4: in terms of the FED helped working to bring down inflation, 127 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 4: because certainly the FED cannot control opek so's it's certainly 128 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:58,680 Speaker 4: a negative if we do see material increases in prices. 129 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 4: But for the most part right now, gasoline prices definitely 130 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 4: are cooling and providing some relief to consumers. 131 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 5: All Right, Dana, In our final couple minutes with you, 132 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 5: I want to do what every economist I'm sure just 133 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 5: loves doing. Look into your crystal ball for me here 134 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,120 Speaker 5: for the rest of this week. What do you think 135 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 5: is going to be the most important data point that 136 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 5: we're going to get in terms of sussing out what 137 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 5: the Fed's next moves are going to be. Is it 138 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 5: going to be some of this labor market data something else? 139 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 4: Absolutely, it's going to be the labor market data. We'll 140 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 4: get ADP and we'll also have the BLS payrolls report. 141 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 4: We've seen that the labor market continues to be robust. 142 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 4: I think that there are three forces going on here 143 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 4: with respect to the labor market. You do have some 144 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 4: companies that are letting folks go, but most companies are 145 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 4: either hiring or just sitting tight and hoarding labor. And 146 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 4: it's the case that those companies that are hiring, plus 147 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 4: the hoarders are outweighing the companies that are letting people go. 148 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 4: So we're probably going to continue to see positive readings 149 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 4: on payrolls and a low unemployment rate. But the key 150 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 4: thing will be next week when we get the JULT 151 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 4: data to see if we're if vacancies are dialing down, 152 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 4: which indicates that businesses are definitely feeling concerned about the 153 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 4: future and that workers should actually watch out and reduce 154 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 4: their spending. 155 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 3: Dana, we only have about thirty seconds left when it 156 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 3: comes to the labor market. What jobs do you think 157 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 3: are most vulnerable right now? 158 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 4: Well, certainly those jobs associated with the pandemic, Darling. So 159 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 4: that's finance, technology, real estate construction on residential, and also 160 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:40,679 Speaker 4: transportation and warehousing simply because there's just less demands for goods. 161 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 3: Dana, thank you so much for joining us. It's always 162 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 3: a pleasure to get your perspective on the economy and 163 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 3: obviously what the conference board is gauging when it comes 164 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 3: to your economic indicators. That st Peterson cheap Economists at 165 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 3: the conference boarding. 166 00:08:56,679 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the dam Can't Live program Bloomberg Markets 167 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 168 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 169 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast. 170 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 5: Madison Mills here with jess Metton on this Monday, the 171 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 5: official start of the second half of the year. Not 172 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 5: a ton today unless you're an ev maker, of course, 173 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 5: driving up markets. But one thing continuing to be a 174 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 5: concern is commercial real estate. We've got a great voice 175 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:28,679 Speaker 5: on the space here. We've got Todd Henderson, he's co 176 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 5: head of Global real Estate for DWS, joining to discuss 177 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 5: why he thinks there's less pressure on commercial real estate 178 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 5: than the consensus view. Todd, thank you so much for 179 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:42,319 Speaker 5: being on with us on this basically holiday Monday. Really 180 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 5: appreciate you coming on. You got a lot of optimism here, 181 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 5: not a ton of doom and gloom views from you. 182 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 5: What are you seeing in the commercial real estate space 183 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:52,199 Speaker 5: that we're missing? 184 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 7: Yeah, sure, I think it's more of a balanced take. 185 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 7: Thanks for having me. There has been a bit of 186 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 7: a doom lou that has been I think pervasive here 187 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 7: over the last couple of months, and I think it 188 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 7: followed somewhat the banking trimmer that we have and what's happened, 189 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:16,559 Speaker 7: I think is the definition of commercial real estate has 190 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 7: been narrowed to office, or said differently, the office woes 191 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 7: are painting the rest of the commercial real estate market 192 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 7: with a very broad brush. There is no doubt that 193 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 7: there are challenges within the office space, but the rest 194 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 7: of the commercial real estate market, which includes industrial buildings, 195 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 7: which includes retail, which includes residential, the fundamentals are very strong. 196 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 7: In fact, if you look at overall vacancy rates inclusive 197 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 7: of office, we're at the lowest levels that we've ever seen. 198 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 7: In addition to that, we're seeing deteriorating construction levels, which 199 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 7: the forward supply is always something we watch to determine 200 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 7: how we expect markets to perform in the face of 201 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 7: normalized demand. So, with strong fundamentals and lowering going for 202 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 7: demand or sorry supply, we think that there is a 203 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:22,720 Speaker 7: reasonable picture for real estate to perform, much better than 204 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 7: much of the doom loop that we have been experiencing 205 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 7: in the press recently. 206 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 3: When it comes specifically for commercial real estate, where are 207 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 3: the vacancy rates the highest within when you're looking at 208 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:38,559 Speaker 3: regions within the United States. 209 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 7: Well, first of all, they're higher in the office sector, 210 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 7: and the office sector today, they're as high as they've 211 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 7: ever been dating back to the RTC crisis that we 212 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 7: saw in the late eighties and early nineties. When you 213 00:11:56,080 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 7: look across the different geographic areas, the higher vacancies are 214 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 7: in some of the markets that we're experiencing migration out 215 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 7: outflows prior to the pandemic. But these are markets like 216 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 7: San Francisco, these are markets like Chicago, and even some 217 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 7: of the Manhattan markets are experiencing very high vacancies. 218 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 5: So then talk to me about what needs to happen 219 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 5: to change that, and specifically how much of that calculation 220 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 5: needs to come from employers getting their workers back to 221 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 5: the office. At least in talking with friends this weekend, Jess, 222 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 5: it feels so all over the place like you and 223 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 5: I are here every day. Most of our friends are 224 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 5: not in that busket that's accurate, right, But some of 225 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:44,680 Speaker 5: them are, and some of them are saying, oh, my 226 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 5: bosses are starting to track my time in the office. 227 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 5: It's really anoying. So maybe that's a good indicator for you, Todd, 228 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 5: tell me what are you thinking. 229 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 7: Yeah, there have been a pretty material change, I think 230 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 7: in terms of the leaders, organizations expectations with respect to 231 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 7: being back in the office. Most of the news that 232 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 7: you read or that's been reported over the last couple 233 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 7: of months is more days back in the office. JP 234 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 7: Morgan five days for their senior most people. Zuckerberg published 235 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:26,080 Speaker 7: a report recently that their engineers have performed more efficiently 236 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 7: and better when in the office. So I think we'll 237 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 7: continue to see more in the office, But I don't 238 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:38,199 Speaker 7: think that that is going to be the trigger that 239 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:42,199 Speaker 7: causes the office market to perform better. The office market 240 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 7: historically has been the most highest highly correlated of any 241 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:51,200 Speaker 7: of the other sectors to the business cycle. And the 242 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 7: business cycle is slowing, and we started into this business 243 00:13:56,800 --> 00:14:01,200 Speaker 7: cycle with reasonably high can see is already in the 244 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 7: office sector. So what we need is a robust economy. 245 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:08,679 Speaker 7: What we need is office using job growth. What we 246 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 7: need is probably less supply, in particular the B and 247 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 7: C office market, which is very much commodity space. I 248 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 7: think about it, if you're commuting an hour and fifteen 249 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 7: minutes each way to the office, are you going to 250 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 7: be excited about coming to an office that doesn't have 251 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,840 Speaker 7: the amenity base that you know a high quality office has. 252 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 8: No, You're not. 253 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 3: It's like in the Bloomberg office. We have so many 254 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 3: snacks here, right, Maddie. 255 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 5: I love an amenity base. That's what I'm going to 256 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 5: start calling my pantrot. 257 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 3: It brings me here. 258 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean Bloomberg. The Bloomberg facility is a perfect example. Like, 259 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 7: you know, it's a it's a very nice building with 260 00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 7: you know, snacks and drinks and meeting areas and it's 261 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 7: a you know, it almost feels like, you know, a 262 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 7: public space, but in you know, in in the private environment. 263 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 7: So that's the kind of experience that office workers want today. 264 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 7: And if you're not delivering it, you're not going to 265 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 7: see very robust demand for your buildings. 266 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 3: To Matty's point, what is it going to take for 267 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 3: us to get there? What's the catalyst in order to 268 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 3: get people back into the office with you look back 269 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 3: what happened during the pandemic and now there's obviously this 270 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 3: rise of hybrid in the workplace, which obviously people are 271 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 3: really enjoying. 272 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, it's it's interesting though, you know, the 273 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 7: the the people that are just starting out in the workforce. 274 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 7: Most of those people in our firm, and as I 275 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 7: speak to other other firms and leaders and other industries, there. 276 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 7: Their junior people want to be in the office. They 277 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 7: recognize that they learn more, there's better training, there's osmosis 278 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 7: learning that goes on, and the senior folks want everyone 279 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 7: in the office for culture continuity. So I think that's 280 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 7: going to bounce back. It's been a little bit stagnant recently. 281 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 7: If you look at the occupancy figures the castle card 282 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 7: keyse wipes, we've been in and around fifty percent of 283 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 7: the pre COVID occupancy levels in terms of swipes. But 284 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 7: I suspect we're going to see that through the remainder 285 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 7: of the year increase. But again, I don't think that 286 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 7: that is the nirvana. It obviously will help, but what 287 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 7: is really going to matter is making sure that we 288 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 7: have a robust economy, have office using job growth growing, 289 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 7: and that the buildings that are not providing the work 290 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 7: environment that tenants want to see. You know, those buildings 291 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 7: are going to have to change or those buildings are 292 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 7: going to have to be repurposed to something else. 293 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 5: All Right, Really quickly, Todd, in our final minute with 294 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 5: you here, talk to me about what this looks like 295 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 5: in terms of the impact on cities. I'm always hoping 296 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 5: that these buildings in Midtown that our previous offices are 297 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 5: going to get turned into apartments so that I can 298 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,200 Speaker 5: continue to afford to live in New York City. How 299 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 5: likely is my dream to come true here? 300 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:34,959 Speaker 7: I think some of the buildings, although unfortunately maybe for you, 301 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:39,959 Speaker 7: a smaller percentage of these buildings are convertible. It is 302 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 7: it's a challenge. You know, you have to have significant plumbing, 303 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 7: you have to have the floor plates lay out appropriately 304 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 7: in order to design effective and efficient units. So I 305 00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:57,560 Speaker 7: think that the conversion to residential is an option, but 306 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 7: again it's not the option for every BI building. It's 307 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 7: the option for a much smaller percentage of buildings than 308 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 7: those who own them and maybe those who are looking 309 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 7: to buy cheaper apartments in the city. I think in 310 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 7: terms of longer term, where are we seeing migration, we 311 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 7: continue to see migration to the southeast, the south, and 312 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 7: the southwest. I think it's keeper cost of living, lower taxes, 313 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 7: more business friendly environments, and those are investible themes that 314 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 7: I believe are here to stay. 315 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 5: All right, Todd, thank you so much for joining us. 316 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 5: That was Todd Henderson, co head of Global real Estate 317 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 5: for DWS on commercial real estate. 318 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 1: There you're listening to the tape. Catch our live program 319 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, 320 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:45,120 Speaker 1: the tune it app, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 321 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:46,399 Speaker 8: The Bloomberg Business App. 322 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 323 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:54,359 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 324 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 3: Wilson Mills here in the Interactive Broker's studio And you 325 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 3: know what, Maddie, especially with what we've been covering the 326 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,399 Speaker 3: last year, and when it comes to investment managers, it 327 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:05,879 Speaker 3: has been so tricky when you think of the amount 328 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 3: of losses in the bear market last year, and then 329 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 3: you're coming off of a Nasdaq one hundred's best first 330 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 3: half to a year ever. And who better to talk 331 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:17,440 Speaker 3: to us about positioning than JD Gardner, CIO and founder 332 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 3: of apt Is Capital Advisors. JD give us her take 333 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 3: here as far as how are you advising clients to 334 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,439 Speaker 3: position off the back of what we just saw the 335 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 3: last six months. 336 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 9: Hey, guys, thanks thanks so much for having us. Really, 337 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 9: we spend a lot of time talking about just where 338 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 9: returns come from, so in a nutshell, yield plus growth 339 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 9: or multiples expanding, and our advice, and it has been 340 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 9: this for some time now, is depending on valuations to expand, 341 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:48,160 Speaker 9: to continue to expand is probably not the best way 342 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,640 Speaker 9: to position portfolios at the moment. So we really think 343 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 9: there's an emphasis that should be had on yield plus 344 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 9: growth and that framework should drive the portfolio construction process 345 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:57,639 Speaker 9: in today's market. 346 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 5: So then, in terms of valuation, how do you suss 347 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 5: out whether you need to reallocate or reposition based on 348 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,919 Speaker 5: how expensive certain equities might become. 349 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,720 Speaker 9: I think it's just equities in general. When you look 350 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 9: at how friendly valuation expansion has been since really the 351 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 9: financial crisis, and you can point to the FED and 352 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 9: QE and things like that, like a lot of people will, 353 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 9: but I think the last fifteen years or so has 354 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 9: really kind of fooled investors into thinking that equity valuations 355 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 9: just go up. 356 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:31,920 Speaker 10: And if you look at. 357 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:35,119 Speaker 9: Where we are today versus where we are historically, given 358 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,879 Speaker 9: the backdrop that what's happened in the interest rate environment 359 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:42,440 Speaker 9: the last fifteen sixteen months, what's happening you know at 360 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:46,359 Speaker 9: the underlying the fundamental components of these companies, we just 361 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,119 Speaker 9: think multiples expanding is not in the cards and we 362 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,639 Speaker 9: do think valuations look rich right now, when. 363 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 3: You're talking about rich valuations, I'm sure Maddie and I 364 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:56,680 Speaker 3: have a few ideas of what corners of the market 365 00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:58,720 Speaker 3: you could be talking about when it comes to big 366 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 3: tech and these growth But is that where you think 367 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,120 Speaker 3: the majority of that is placed, or are there other 368 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:06,920 Speaker 3: particular corners of the market that you think look a 369 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 3: little too lofty as well. 370 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 9: I think there's definitely pockets that we could point to 371 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:17,080 Speaker 9: and say does this make sense or not? And you 372 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,280 Speaker 9: can probably sense where our stance would be on that. 373 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 9: But I think in general there are pockets where there's 374 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 9: valuations that look somewhat attractive. But when you're just getting 375 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 9: beta exposure to the market, we're in an environment where 376 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 9: unless you're willing to take significant active share risk versus 377 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 9: the S and P, because the SMP now, like I know, 378 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 9: just heard the market update talking about the Nasdaq talking 379 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 9: about the S and P, the S and P still 380 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 9: look at the top five or six names. You're heavily, 381 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 9: heavily focused in names that we are dependent on the 382 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,400 Speaker 9: growth associated with those companies being attractive. 383 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 5: So then, and it's interesting because historically when you see 384 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 5: a strong market that leads to strong markets ahead, right, 385 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,880 Speaker 5: So how do you think about risk when it comes 386 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 5: to that? Are you concerned at all about being overbought 387 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 5: on some of these expensive names? And your note you 388 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 5: mentioned that at least eighty percent of your fund's net 389 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 5: assets will be invested in US large caps. Are you 390 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,680 Speaker 5: concerned at all about going all in on a few 391 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 5: a few names. 392 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 8: No. 393 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:27,200 Speaker 9: And here's here's here's kind of our what we tell 394 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,159 Speaker 9: investors all the time is we think volatility should be 395 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 9: used as an asset class or viewed as an asset class, 396 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,919 Speaker 9: and volatility is something that you can use to mitigate 397 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 9: risk or enhance yield. 398 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,200 Speaker 10: So we have a whole suite of funds where you know. 399 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:45,240 Speaker 9: Let's say, let's say you get beta plus additional yield, 400 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 9: and we think that that that helps alleviate that additional 401 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,879 Speaker 9: yield helps alleviate the potential risk that you're taking. Because 402 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,439 Speaker 9: and I'll be the first one to tell you, you know, 403 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 9: market could end up plus thirty for the rest of 404 00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 9: the year. It could go you know, we could lose 405 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,439 Speaker 9: what gains we've had so far here today, but we 406 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 9: could also keep rising. I can't explain markets just seem 407 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:11,840 Speaker 9: to levitate right now soft landing. And I would guess 408 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:13,879 Speaker 9: if you pulled your audience and said, hey, what do 409 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 9: you think the market's going to do if the Fed 410 00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 9: funds rate goes from basically zero to five and a 411 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:20,640 Speaker 9: half or wherever it is right now in the next 412 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,679 Speaker 9: fourteen months, I would guess most people would not say 413 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,719 Speaker 9: markets are going to just continue to truck higher in 414 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 9: twenty twenty three. 415 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,160 Speaker 10: And so our use. 416 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 9: Of volatility, our view on volatility, I think, is what 417 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,119 Speaker 9: allows us to continue to take that equity risk and 418 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,439 Speaker 9: not make any major bets about some bearish sentiment, Like 419 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 9: we still want to own stocks because we think long 420 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 9: term they're how you compound wealth. 421 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 3: That's interesting because we did an M Live survey at 422 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:48,399 Speaker 3: the start of the year. I did a story with 423 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,040 Speaker 3: Liz McCormick over on the Bonds team, and when we 424 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 3: pulled on M Live, most respondents thought that the US 425 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:56,480 Speaker 3: stock market we were talking about, the S and P 426 00:23:56,600 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 3: five hundred would retest those October lows, so they didn't 427 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 3: necessarily see at the time a bull market coming. But 428 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 3: I'm sure JD, especially when it comes to a lot 429 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 3: of the sentiment indicators that we've been talking about. When 430 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:11,439 Speaker 3: they're at such different extremes. I know the AEII survey 431 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:15,040 Speaker 3: recently has begun to turn higher the last three weeks 432 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:19,520 Speaker 3: or so. Obviously not the same string of pessimism that 433 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,440 Speaker 3: we would have seen over the past fifteen months before that. 434 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 3: But do you think that there's a risk here for 435 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 3: individual investors if they remain too bearish? 436 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:30,680 Speaker 10: Yeah, I think there's definitely a risk. 437 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 9: And if you look at how like I point to 438 00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,439 Speaker 9: the vis twenty twenty three so far has been a 439 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 9: year where there's been very little volatility, and you've seen 440 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:41,399 Speaker 9: the VIX go from what it was to where it 441 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 9: is today, which is significantly lower. So I think you 442 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:48,199 Speaker 9: never want to fight that. That's kind of what I 443 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 9: was saying I alluded to earlier. The only way if 444 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,439 Speaker 9: you want to take a bearish view your potential, your 445 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,400 Speaker 9: opportunity costs could be could be pretty damaging to long 446 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 9: term compounded returns. And so that that's kind of where 447 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,679 Speaker 9: you know, we want to mitigate risks. Specifically with our 448 00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,919 Speaker 9: enhanced Yield suite. We want to enhance the yield associated 449 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 9: with owning beta and we think that gives you kind 450 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 9: of more comfort in owning equities, even if you aren't 451 00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:13,400 Speaker 9: convicted that valuations are cheap. 452 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 5: Final thirty seconds here, JD, what is the single biggest 453 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,439 Speaker 5: thing that you are going to look to for the 454 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 5: second half of the year to indicate where this market 455 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:23,160 Speaker 5: is going to end up? 456 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 10: I think that that's a tough question on the. 457 00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 5: Spot, give me your your entire thesis on the market 458 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,080 Speaker 5: and how we can make money by following let. 459 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,520 Speaker 9: Me let me shake my magic eight ball. Hold on 460 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 9: two seconds. I think the big thing is right now, 461 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 9: what we're spending a lot of time in the office 462 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 9: talking through is kind of what the FED say in 463 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:52,480 Speaker 9: verse market market expectations. All of that points to kind 464 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,720 Speaker 9: of how we started the conversation, which is, I really 465 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,000 Speaker 9: do think yield is going to be an incredibly important 466 00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 9: driver of returns at the portfolio level. And that doesn't 467 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 9: mean go own some high yield bonds or something like that. 468 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:05,360 Speaker 10: I think there's different. 469 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 9: Ways, specifically in the ETHF space, where you know, we're 470 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,159 Speaker 9: trying to pioneer ways where you can enhance yield in 471 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:16,200 Speaker 9: a very simple and liquid wrapper that's fully transparent and 472 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:20,520 Speaker 9: allows you to own beta instead of owning some factor 473 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:22,880 Speaker 9: or some tilt the portfolios that could create risk. 474 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,600 Speaker 3: Thank you so much, JD. It's been a pleasure getting 475 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:28,720 Speaker 3: your insight on this, a more optimistic view when it 476 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 3: comes to investment managers. But JD. Gardner, CIO and founder 477 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 3: of Aptis Capital Advisors, thank you so much for joining 478 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,640 Speaker 3: us on zoom and Maddie. I mean, looking at these 479 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,720 Speaker 3: markets we're talking about discretion there is still up over 480 00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 3: one percent in the S and P five hundred. Real 481 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,240 Speaker 3: estate also up one percent, but then you have healthcare 482 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,880 Speaker 3: down about one percent, so kind of keeping those gains 483 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:49,600 Speaker 3: in check for the S and P five hundred. 484 00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Tin Can't Live program Bloomberg Markets 485 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,879 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 486 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:01,480 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg miss or listen on demand 487 00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:03,160 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. 488 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 5: We're going to switch gears a little bit to the geopolitics, Jess, 489 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,919 Speaker 5: because that Russian war on Ukraine continues, almost hitting a 490 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 5: year and a half now of that war continuing. Just 491 00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 5: to go through some news there to Ukraine's deputy defense 492 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 5: minister reporting heavy fighting as Kiev's troops are advancing towards 493 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 5: Bach move Meanwhile, Russia is saying it thwarted a Ukrainian 494 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,680 Speaker 5: assassination attempt on the Russian backed head of crime. HA 495 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 5: lots of news to talk about this morning, and all 496 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 5: of that, of course following that Wagner Group news from 497 00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:38,359 Speaker 5: last weekend. And we've got one of the foremost experts globally, 498 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 5: I think, on Putin joining us to talk about this. 499 00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:45,040 Speaker 5: Angela Stent, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, also author 500 00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,480 Speaker 5: of Putin's World, Russia against the West and with the rest. 501 00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,640 Speaker 5: She joins us on zoom. Angela, great to speak with you, 502 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:56,359 Speaker 5: as always in terms of the totality of the news 503 00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:59,160 Speaker 5: that we're getting out of Russia, out of Ukraine right now, 504 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:03,280 Speaker 5: and the picture pains for you regarding Putin's power, Where 505 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 5: do you think his power stands right now? How dented 506 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,200 Speaker 5: is it following some of the bad news that he's 507 00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 5: gotten over the course of the last eight days. 508 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:16,800 Speaker 6: So Putin seems to have bounced back. I mean Saturday, 509 00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:20,240 Speaker 6: when all these events were occurring on June twenty fourth, 510 00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,040 Speaker 6: he was very angry, he seemed insecure. He kind of 511 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,439 Speaker 6: disappeared from view. But he's now done a lot of 512 00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,160 Speaker 6: public events. He's, as I said, he's bounced back. He's 513 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:33,640 Speaker 6: made speeches. And we do know now that the Russian 514 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:38,720 Speaker 6: state is taking over Wagner's assets. They've raided the Wagner 515 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:42,239 Speaker 6: offices in Saint Petersburg, They've taken down the logo, you know, 516 00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:45,760 Speaker 6: from the building where Vagner is, and they are slowly 517 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:50,480 Speaker 6: and I think systematically, trying to figure out how they're 518 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 6: going to take these assets over, who is going to 519 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 6: run them. And of course it's not only what Vagner 520 00:28:55,960 --> 00:29:00,920 Speaker 6: has in Russia and Ukraine, but in Africa's Central African public, Mali, 521 00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,200 Speaker 6: in Sudan and Libya, in all these places where Vaden 522 00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:10,520 Speaker 6: was such an important outpost, really arm of the Russian state. 523 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 6: So for the moment, Putin looks as if he is 524 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 6: in charge. But I think there's so many questions still 525 00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 6: surrounding what happened last week and who was behind what that. 526 00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 6: I will still have to wait and see how this 527 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:25,520 Speaker 6: plays out. 528 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 3: In the week of these insurrection attempts just over a 529 00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 3: week ago that threatened to steal Putin's grip on power. 530 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,760 Speaker 3: How has that impacted Ukraine's counter offensive with Russia. 531 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 6: Well, it doesn't seem to have had that much of 532 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 6: an impact. I mean, the counter offensive continues, it's very difficult. 533 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 6: The Russians have very strong defenses, They've been billing them 534 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 6: for months, and the Ukrainians are inching forward. They're taking 535 00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:54,880 Speaker 6: small amounts of territory. As you said, they are trying 536 00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 6: to retake what's left of bunt Moot, which is really 537 00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:02,760 Speaker 6: a destroyed town. But these gains come a significant loss 538 00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:06,479 Speaker 6: of human life. So what the Ukrainians have said is 539 00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:09,880 Speaker 6: that the real counter offensive hasn't begun yet, inasmuch as 540 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 6: they have more troops and more weapons that they can 541 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,880 Speaker 6: put into this, and this may happen in a few weeks. 542 00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,080 Speaker 6: But what they've said is we're not going to tell 543 00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 6: you when it's going to happen, and you'll see, you'll 544 00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:21,640 Speaker 6: find out when we're actually doing it. 545 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,360 Speaker 5: Angela, If Putin was already able to bounce back just 546 00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 5: a little over a week after the Wagner groups moves here, 547 00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 5: what is it that could finally kind of put a 548 00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 5: dent in some of his power, both in Russia and 549 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 5: then in this war effort in Ukraine. What do you 550 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,040 Speaker 5: think is something that could be a catalyst for that. 551 00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 6: Well, there could still be questions about his hold on 552 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 6: the reins of power. There are obviously questions swallowing around 553 00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:53,000 Speaker 6: about how much of the regular military actually supported some 554 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 6: of the things that Pregorsian was doing and supported his 555 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 6: criticism of the way that the war was being waged. 556 00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:02,200 Speaker 6: We know that at least one general, sorovikn apparently supported him, 557 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:05,720 Speaker 6: and he's now disappeared, so there may be other questioning 558 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:07,960 Speaker 6: going on, and I think people will be waiting to 559 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 6: see how the campaign in Ukraine goes. Can the Russian 560 00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:16,840 Speaker 6: armed forces continue fighting back about the Ukrainians without the 561 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,400 Speaker 6: Wagner forces, And we don't know how many of the 562 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 6: Vagner forces have joined the regular forces. They were supposed 563 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:26,080 Speaker 6: to have done so by July one, We're not sure 564 00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 6: about that, so I think that's one certainly of the indications. 565 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 6: The other thing would be if you could really see 566 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 6: complaining and unrest among the elites that support Putin, but 567 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,160 Speaker 6: we really haven't seen that because I think once they 568 00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 6: understood the mutiny was over, they need Putin to stay 569 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:46,920 Speaker 6: in power to protect our assets and their way of life. 570 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 6: They may have lost the ability to travel to Europe 571 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,719 Speaker 6: and visit their homes and banks bank accounts because all 572 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,680 Speaker 6: of the sanctions that we've levied on them, but still 573 00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 6: they want to keep what they have in Russia and 574 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,360 Speaker 6: continue to lead the life that they're able still to do, 575 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,040 Speaker 6: and for that they don't want Putin to go. Pregausion 576 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,520 Speaker 6: would not have been a good alternative for them. So 577 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:10,040 Speaker 6: I think again, if you saw more overt unrest among 578 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,400 Speaker 6: the elites surrounding him, then you'd really have to question 579 00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,360 Speaker 6: what's going on. But we haven't seen that since the 580 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:16,240 Speaker 6: mutiny was over. 581 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,240 Speaker 3: Do we have a sense of what the timetable could 582 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,520 Speaker 3: be for how long this could continue or is this 583 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:23,920 Speaker 3: something that's going to turn out to be an endless war. 584 00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 6: So Putin, I think, certainly before last week, thought that 585 00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 6: Russia could outlast the West. We have elections coming up, 586 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 6: I don't have to tell you in the US, and 587 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 6: we have some Republicans and candidates who are against supporting Ukraine, 588 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,880 Speaker 6: and then they're looking at Europe, and then also movements 589 00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 6: and groups in Europe who say that we should be 590 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:47,000 Speaker 6: forcing the Ukrainians to the negotiating table. So I think 591 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,720 Speaker 6: he believed that, and I think he still believes maybe 592 00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,760 Speaker 6: he can outlast the West. But we did see a 593 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:56,920 Speaker 6: show of Western unity last week, So unfortunately, this war 594 00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 6: could go on for a long time. It also depends 595 00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:03,200 Speaker 6: on how much the US and its allies, But primarily 596 00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 6: the US is willing to furnish the Ukrainians in sophisticated weaponry, 597 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:14,680 Speaker 6: and they're things like attackers missiles, which the Ukrainians are 598 00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,680 Speaker 6: really asking for and which the US has so fond 599 00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:20,920 Speaker 6: not given them F sixteen fighter aircraft that they want 600 00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:24,400 Speaker 6: because their air defenses are not as strong as they 601 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,640 Speaker 6: could be. So if they got more weaponry from the US, 602 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,640 Speaker 6: then this might be able to be over earlier, but 603 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 6: that's also been a very slow process. 604 00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,480 Speaker 5: Well, Angela, how concerned are you that the upcoming elections 605 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,320 Speaker 5: in the US are going to make that even harder 606 00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:44,760 Speaker 5: for US officials to properly get funding for Ukrainian counter 607 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,240 Speaker 5: offenses and weaponry as well. 608 00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:50,360 Speaker 6: I think it's going to be more difficult. I think 609 00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 6: you'll see that this year twenty twenty three was probably 610 00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,240 Speaker 6: the peak year of assistance for Ukraine. We'll see the 611 00:33:56,280 --> 00:34:00,640 Speaker 6: debates in the fall as the election campaigns unfold. The 612 00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:03,000 Speaker 6: people have to figure out what they're going to do 613 00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,920 Speaker 6: with the National Defense Authorization Act, which is where they 614 00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:10,160 Speaker 6: would be assigning all the money and other things for Ukraine. 615 00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:12,240 Speaker 6: But I think it's going to be more difficult because 616 00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:17,520 Speaker 6: you have a split among the Republican candidates about their 617 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,880 Speaker 6: views on Ukraine. And obviously, if Donald Trump is the candidate, 618 00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,200 Speaker 6: that's going to be a very different situation next year 619 00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:25,319 Speaker 6: than we have this year. 620 00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,480 Speaker 3: Angela, we only have about a minute left here. What 621 00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:30,840 Speaker 3: are your sort of final thoughts when it comes to 622 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:32,319 Speaker 3: this and what we should be keeping an eye on 623 00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:33,080 Speaker 3: moving forward. 624 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:35,960 Speaker 6: Well, I think we have to keep an eye on 625 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,680 Speaker 6: the whereabouts of mister progosion. We don't know where he is. 626 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 6: He may be in vl Risk, but we don't know that. 627 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:44,600 Speaker 6: We only have audio recordings from him. We have to 628 00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:47,080 Speaker 6: keep our eyes on what happened to if we ever 629 00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:50,799 Speaker 6: find out General Suovykin who has disappeared, we'll see how 630 00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,600 Speaker 6: many people disappear or are no longer there. And then 631 00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:56,640 Speaker 6: I think we need to see how successful the Russian 632 00:34:56,680 --> 00:35:00,120 Speaker 6: state is in taking over the Wagner assets and controlling 633 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:03,560 Speaker 6: this kind of monstrosity. Really, they've got to have of 634 00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,400 Speaker 6: control and that the Kreminins thought that it could control 635 00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:07,080 Speaker 6: earlier on. 636 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:10,400 Speaker 5: All right, Angela, thank you so much as always for 637 00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:14,239 Speaker 5: joining us. It's really so important that we have you 638 00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,239 Speaker 5: as a source to get some of these insights on 639 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,960 Speaker 5: what's going on on the ground with that war in 640 00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 5: Ukraine and what's going on with Putin moving forward as well. 641 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:25,359 Speaker 5: That was Angela Stent, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute, 642 00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:29,120 Speaker 5: also author of Putin's World, Russia against the West and 643 00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:30,360 Speaker 5: with the rest. 644 00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:34,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the tape Cansur Live program Bloomberg Markets 645 00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,800 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune 646 00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:39,480 Speaker 1: in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 647 00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:40,759 Speaker 8: The Bloomberg Business App. 648 00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,640 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 649 00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:47,640 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven 650 00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,400 Speaker 1: thirty Maddie. 651 00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,560 Speaker 3: What better way to especially when we're getting ready for 652 00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:57,160 Speaker 3: the fourth July holiday thinking about summer travel. I was 653 00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:59,600 Speaker 3: just looking at some stats over the weekend. If you 654 00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:04,160 Speaker 3: looked at more than two million passengers were on Friday, 655 00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:06,400 Speaker 3: so kind of rivaling some of these numbers that we 656 00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,719 Speaker 3: would have seen in Thanksgiving of twenty nineteen. So that 657 00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,880 Speaker 3: was before the pandemic. When you think about that, that's crazy, 658 00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,000 Speaker 3: I know. So we're getting back, like we're so back, 659 00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,560 Speaker 3: We're so we are, and who better to chat with 660 00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:21,439 Speaker 3: us when it comes to the travel season, especially during 661 00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:24,640 Speaker 3: the summer months. Than David Carr, Senior insights manager, was 662 00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:28,640 Speaker 3: similar Web David, please talk to us about what your 663 00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:31,239 Speaker 3: travel outlook is, because it seems like when you think 664 00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:34,080 Speaker 3: about the consumer, they're definitely out there traveling right now. 665 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:39,839 Speaker 11: Yeah, that's true. Well, it's interesting. I mean I look 666 00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:43,319 Speaker 11: at things through the lens of web traffic is a 667 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:47,040 Speaker 11: proxy for demand, and we're actually seeing things soften up 668 00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,840 Speaker 11: a little bit. I think if you were in a 669 00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:55,320 Speaker 11: crowd at airport dealing with your canceled flight, you probably 670 00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,520 Speaker 11: didn't feel like things were off at all. And it's 671 00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:02,920 Speaker 11: not that demand has collapse. It's just not growing in 672 00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,680 Speaker 11: the crazy way that it was a year ago or 673 00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,680 Speaker 11: two years ago coming out of the pandemic. So we 674 00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,200 Speaker 11: do seem to be a little bit past that that 675 00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,399 Speaker 11: revenge travel just got to get out there. 676 00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:18,239 Speaker 3: Interesting, So softening up a bit where exactly I mean, 677 00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:20,719 Speaker 3: is this where you're seeing just in general for flights 678 00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:22,040 Speaker 3: and things like that. 679 00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:26,960 Speaker 11: Yeah, flights, I mean, I actually did an analysis of 680 00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:31,800 Speaker 11: just the top one hundred travel websites that we consider 681 00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,200 Speaker 11: transactional websites where you can buy a ticket, you can 682 00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 11: buy some sort of a booking and it's been off 683 00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:43,839 Speaker 11: a little bit. I think it's almost unchanged from last 684 00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:49,240 Speaker 11: year as of June, as of preliminary stats for June. 685 00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:52,399 Speaker 11: And you know, the big standout has been cruises. Though 686 00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:59,120 Speaker 11: cruises are are still crazy growing, you know, some more 687 00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:03,360 Speaker 11: than others. I mean, you know, Carnival itself, the Carnival 688 00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:08,279 Speaker 11: brand isn't doing quite as strongly as it's some of 689 00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:12,799 Speaker 11: its sub brands. Princess is doing better, same thing with 690 00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,920 Speaker 11: Royal Caribbean and Celebrity. Celebrity is the one that is 691 00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:23,120 Speaker 11: growing the fastest right now, Version is growing fastest. And 692 00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:26,279 Speaker 11: I hope I'm not babbling too much, but we do 693 00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:31,440 Speaker 11: definitely see a trend towards a low cost travel options 694 00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,680 Speaker 11: winning out. So if I look at airlines, they tend 695 00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:38,040 Speaker 11: to be about the same or maybe down a little 696 00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:41,960 Speaker 11: bit from this time last year. But Frontier Airlines is 697 00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:45,280 Speaker 11: going great. And if I look at the cruises MSc, 698 00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:50,080 Speaker 11: which is a relatively budget cruise line, they're the strongest 699 00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,319 Speaker 11: of that set. Even though you know, across the board, 700 00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:54,920 Speaker 11: I did see the cruises we rot. 701 00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,239 Speaker 5: What's so interesting that I always think about our Bloomberg 702 00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:03,400 Speaker 5: intelligence airlines. Analysts always talk about how important business travel 703 00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:07,160 Speaker 5: is for these airlines because when it's going on the 704 00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:10,200 Speaker 5: company card, maybe you're getting first class travel, whereas if 705 00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:14,839 Speaker 5: it's you, maybe you're going Spirit airlines for your own pocketbook. There, 706 00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:18,000 Speaker 5: talk to me about how the data looks on your 707 00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,439 Speaker 5: end when it comes to business travel. Are you seeing 708 00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:22,399 Speaker 5: any big changes on that front this year? 709 00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:23,759 Speaker 8: Yeah? 710 00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:26,279 Speaker 11: I mean the most direct way I can track that 711 00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:33,120 Speaker 11: is by looking at traffic to say AMX travel so 712 00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:40,240 Speaker 11: a business travel portal, and that's that and concurs maybe 713 00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:44,680 Speaker 11: twelve thirteen percent from what it was last year, So 714 00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,880 Speaker 11: there is some interest in getting back out there to 715 00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:49,120 Speaker 11: travel again. 716 00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,920 Speaker 3: When you're talking about a little bit of softness earlier, 717 00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:56,320 Speaker 3: what do you think that tells us about the American 718 00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:57,319 Speaker 3: consumer right now? 719 00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:02,840 Speaker 11: Well, I'm not an economist, but I think consumer confidence 720 00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:06,960 Speaker 11: is the is the phrase that comes to mind. Not 721 00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,799 Speaker 11: that people are doing horribly, but they just they just 722 00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:13,560 Speaker 11: aren't quite sure how they're going to be doing next month, 723 00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:17,520 Speaker 11: and so there may be a little bit less inclined 724 00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:22,040 Speaker 11: to make a big travel purchase. They still want their vacation, 725 00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:26,960 Speaker 11: but they might be more inclined to shop for deals. 726 00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:30,200 Speaker 5: Is that part of why we're seeing such a boom 727 00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:32,960 Speaker 5: in the cruise industry. Is it viewed as a deal 728 00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:37,000 Speaker 5: or is it just that you know, the world's reopened, 729 00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:38,680 Speaker 5: so why not go on a cruise? Like, what do 730 00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:41,040 Speaker 5: we know about the thinking behind the cruiser? 731 00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:46,840 Speaker 11: I mean, I've read elsewhere that that cruising has started 732 00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:50,520 Speaker 11: to attract a younger, younger demographic, and it still does 733 00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:53,280 Speaker 11: well with old folks like Mayer. 734 00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,320 Speaker 3: Really David has. 735 00:40:56,200 --> 00:41:01,719 Speaker 11: Gotten a little bit younger. And yeah, and I think 736 00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,080 Speaker 11: it is seen as a bargain as seen as the package. 737 00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:08,800 Speaker 11: Now the activity that I'm seeing right now, typically cruises 738 00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:12,640 Speaker 11: are booked more in the March April time frame. They 739 00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:18,200 Speaker 11: talk about wave season when everybody is behind their cruises. So, 740 00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:23,280 Speaker 11: you know, but I think, you know, we saw strength 741 00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:26,640 Speaker 11: then in demand, but we're the fact that we're still 742 00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:30,280 Speaker 11: seeing it now means that some people are are either 743 00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:34,799 Speaker 11: booking a last minute a cruise, you know, they still 744 00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:38,040 Speaker 11: find that attractive, or maybe they're booking something that is 745 00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:41,399 Speaker 11: for the fall or for next year. And that's all 746 00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:42,560 Speaker 11: good for the cruise lines. 747 00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:46,560 Speaker 3: What about when it comes to hotel websites, what are 748 00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:49,759 Speaker 3: you seeing there? Is there a difference between particular high 749 00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:53,839 Speaker 3: end types of hotels, maybe resorts versus maybe some cheaper bookings. 750 00:41:55,880 --> 00:42:00,640 Speaker 11: Well, hotels in general, we're doing fairly well. I did 751 00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:05,400 Speaker 11: notice that some of the all inclusive resorts were actually 752 00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:11,560 Speaker 11: seeing some decline or stagnation in demand. So Sandals, Beaches, 753 00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:18,160 Speaker 11: club Medose, those types of types of places. So you know, again, 754 00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:23,960 Speaker 11: you know that has some of the same fixed price 755 00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:26,960 Speaker 11: appeal as the cruise does, but maybe people think of 756 00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:32,480 Speaker 11: it as flurging and so they're a little bit less 757 00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:34,279 Speaker 11: less likely to pull the trigger on that. 758 00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:37,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, some of those resorts. I was looking back in 759 00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,840 Speaker 3: May to take a trip for my birthday, and like 760 00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:42,200 Speaker 3: you were talking about Club Med, I wasn't thinking about 761 00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,520 Speaker 3: staying there, but I saw it on Expedia and it 762 00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:47,400 Speaker 3: was probably five six thousand dollars to stay for just 763 00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,759 Speaker 3: a couple of days. I was like, no, thanks, No, 764 00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:50,279 Speaker 3: I was like. 765 00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:53,799 Speaker 5: What did you end up doing again? For the travel job? 766 00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,160 Speaker 3: I went to Aruba. Yes, it was great, A had 767 00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:59,359 Speaker 3: good time and just a hotel. I stayed at Renaissance. 768 00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:02,719 Speaker 3: It's nice, okay there before I've been to a couple 769 00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:05,759 Speaker 3: of times, but they have a flamingo island there, so 770 00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:07,640 Speaker 3: it's a lot of fun takes. 771 00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:10,160 Speaker 5: So you have to go interesting that you did not 772 00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:13,000 Speaker 5: consider an Airbnb. It sounds like. 773 00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:15,759 Speaker 3: I wanted to go to the Flamingo Island in order 774 00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:18,520 Speaker 3: to get it. That's the private island at So that's 775 00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:21,040 Speaker 3: that's the reason that got me hooked onto it. You 776 00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:23,880 Speaker 3: can buy a day pass, but it's more complicated. 777 00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:26,640 Speaker 5: Right right, Okay, Well that that makes sense as a reason. David. 778 00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,800 Speaker 5: I know that you don't necessarily look at this data, 779 00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,759 Speaker 5: but you're you're a travel guy. You can go on 780 00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:35,200 Speaker 5: this journey with us here to what extent are you 781 00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:40,040 Speaker 5: seeing declines in Airbnb interest and consumers looking more towards 782 00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:44,000 Speaker 5: hotels and other you know, long term stays perhaps outside 783 00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:45,520 Speaker 5: of Airbnb rentals. 784 00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:50,560 Speaker 11: I did see that that that was I guess both 785 00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:55,640 Speaker 11: both Airbnb and Verbo. Yeah, despite I see a lot 786 00:43:55,640 --> 00:44:00,080 Speaker 11: of advertising from Verbo currently, but but they they're trending 787 00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:05,360 Speaker 11: downward year over year. So the more traditional hotel brands 788 00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:07,480 Speaker 11: are actually doing a little bit better than those guys, 789 00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:08,640 Speaker 11: which is interesting. 790 00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,840 Speaker 3: All right, David Carr, we only have about a minute left, 791 00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:16,920 Speaker 3: But any sort of parting thoughts for the summer travel 792 00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:17,960 Speaker 3: season for our listeners. 793 00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:23,520 Speaker 11: I mean, I thought of mentioning that that I am 794 00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:26,520 Speaker 11: a cruiser, I have to live in driving distance of 795 00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:28,560 Speaker 11: three cruise ports in South Florida. 796 00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:29,120 Speaker 6: Oh wow. 797 00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:32,640 Speaker 11: It's part of the appeal of cruising might be that 798 00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:34,520 Speaker 11: you don't necessarily have to get on an airplane to 799 00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:40,440 Speaker 11: go on a cruise. And if it was over this 800 00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:43,040 Speaker 11: past week, I think I would be happy to be 801 00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:45,360 Speaker 11: getting out a cruise rather than flying some places. 802 00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:49,759 Speaker 3: So great. Well, we are so pleased that we were 803 00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:52,799 Speaker 3: able to get your insight on all things travel for 804 00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:56,480 Speaker 3: this summer. That's David Carr, senior insights manager with Similar Web, 805 00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:58,400 Speaker 3: joining us on Zoom. 806 00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:01,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the tape cats are live program Bloomberg 807 00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:05,600 Speaker 1: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 808 00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:07,640 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 809 00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:08,879 Speaker 8: The Bloomberg Business App. 810 00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,759 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 811 00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:16,800 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 812 00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:19,360 Speaker 5: But Jess Wild markets are still open. 813 00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:19,600 Speaker 8: Here. 814 00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:22,520 Speaker 5: We're going to have a great talk with marlee's Van Romberg, 815 00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:26,200 Speaker 5: editor and chief at crunch Base. She's joining us on 816 00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:29,719 Speaker 5: Zoom from San Francisco to talk all things tech. And 817 00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:32,719 Speaker 5: an outlook from crunch Base for the second half of 818 00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:35,319 Speaker 5: the year. Marlee's thanks so much for getting on a 819 00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:38,880 Speaker 5: call with us on this half holiday. Here you have 820 00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:43,480 Speaker 5: a report that your organization did on the outlook for 821 00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:47,200 Speaker 5: twenty twenty three that I found so interesting. One of 822 00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:50,800 Speaker 5: the results saying that companies only have six months of 823 00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:53,200 Speaker 5: runway left in the bank. That's according to almost a 824 00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:56,880 Speaker 5: third of your company respondents. There. What are the the 825 00:45:57,040 --> 00:46:00,560 Speaker 5: other big standout data points for you when it comes 826 00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,680 Speaker 5: to that mid year report from crunch Base. 827 00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,839 Speaker 12: Nice, good morning, Thank you for having me so. Yes, 828 00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:10,040 Speaker 12: we actually just published We do a quarterly reader survey, 829 00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:14,720 Speaker 12: so these are mostly obviously people in tech and venture 830 00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:17,359 Speaker 12: capital who are taking that survey and sort of telling 831 00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:19,480 Speaker 12: us what they're thinking. And some of the things that 832 00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:22,640 Speaker 12: we've been tracking since the beginning of the year is, 833 00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:26,319 Speaker 12: as you mentioned, runway, that's a big hot topic right 834 00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:29,399 Speaker 12: now is how much money do startups have before they 835 00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:32,719 Speaker 12: start running out of cash? And what I thought was 836 00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:35,960 Speaker 12: really interesting this time around was, as you mentioned, about 837 00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:39,920 Speaker 12: a third of respondents who answered that question said that 838 00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:43,520 Speaker 12: they actually have less than six months of runway, which 839 00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:47,120 Speaker 12: is definitely you know, sort of red alarm status for 840 00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:52,400 Speaker 12: your company, particularly given that venture funding is very difficult 841 00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:55,160 Speaker 12: to come by, so you know, that's that's really an 842 00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:59,680 Speaker 12: emergency situation for those companies. What was also interesting is 843 00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:02,560 Speaker 12: that it seems to be kind of a barbell about 844 00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:05,840 Speaker 12: the same percentage who answered the question said they have 845 00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:08,640 Speaker 12: more than twenty four months of runway. So it seems 846 00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:11,640 Speaker 12: like there's almost these two classes of companies that are 847 00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:15,040 Speaker 12: emerging right now. Those that are doing pretty well on 848 00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:19,160 Speaker 12: managing their cash and can probably you know, kind of 849 00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:24,160 Speaker 12: survive the current environment if nothing else big kind of 850 00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:26,040 Speaker 12: comes along. And then there are those that are really 851 00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:29,279 Speaker 12: in a difficult situation right now. And I think that 852 00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:33,640 Speaker 12: might be where we start to see more mergers and acquisitions. 853 00:47:33,680 --> 00:47:36,240 Speaker 12: It's something we've sort of been anticipating in the startup 854 00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:38,680 Speaker 12: world for a while and haven't quite seen that come along. 855 00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:44,680 Speaker 12: But there were actually quite a few larger deals announced 856 00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:48,680 Speaker 12: last week, including the Big Data Bricks purchase of another 857 00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:52,239 Speaker 12: venture back startup, So you know, we might start to 858 00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:53,720 Speaker 12: see some of those trends emerge. 859 00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:56,840 Speaker 3: Now, what's been the catalyst for why there's been a 860 00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:59,480 Speaker 3: divergence between those that are still doing well and then 861 00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:01,279 Speaker 3: you have on the opposite side of that, those that 862 00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:02,640 Speaker 3: are struggling to get that funding. 863 00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:06,120 Speaker 12: You know, I think I think there are a lot 864 00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:09,560 Speaker 12: of factors at play. In general, funding is hard to 865 00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:13,040 Speaker 12: come by for all companies right now, with you know, 866 00:48:13,120 --> 00:48:16,560 Speaker 12: some obvious exceptions like AI. Investors are very very interested 867 00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:17,760 Speaker 12: in what's going on there. 868 00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:19,200 Speaker 8: You know. 869 00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:22,920 Speaker 12: I think when money was easy to come by, a 870 00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:26,200 Speaker 12: lot of startups did over higher, and that's why we're 871 00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:29,040 Speaker 12: seeing a lot of layoffs in the sector right now, 872 00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:32,480 Speaker 12: as you know, some of those corrections are being made. 873 00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:37,040 Speaker 12: I think, you know, some companies were really kind of 874 00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:39,160 Speaker 12: trying to grab as much market share as they could 875 00:48:39,200 --> 00:48:42,680 Speaker 12: when when things were hot, and as the market slowing 876 00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:45,799 Speaker 12: down now, you know, maybe didn't manage the cash they 877 00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:47,319 Speaker 12: had as well as they could have. 878 00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:50,720 Speaker 3: How much of this could be repercussions to what happened 879 00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:53,279 Speaker 3: with SVB and some of these other banks that we 880 00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:54,520 Speaker 3: saw earlier in the spring. 881 00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:59,160 Speaker 12: Yeah, I think we you know, really can't overstate the 882 00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:02,840 Speaker 12: impact that the collapse of the SDB had on this sector. 883 00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:07,200 Speaker 12: You know, partly it was really an impact to the 884 00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:12,720 Speaker 12: confidence in venture backed startups, but you know, it's also 885 00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:17,280 Speaker 12: just SVB was by far the largest source of venture 886 00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:20,400 Speaker 12: debt for a lot of startups, So that's something that's 887 00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:23,000 Speaker 12: become even harder to come by and for a lot 888 00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:27,080 Speaker 12: of companies. As venture funding became more difficult, venture debt 889 00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:29,240 Speaker 12: was was sort of a plan B, so that's become 890 00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:30,800 Speaker 12: more difficult as well. 891 00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:31,720 Speaker 11: Well. 892 00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:35,600 Speaker 5: Even though that space has been a challenge, AI is 893 00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:39,120 Speaker 5: certainly alive and well here when it comes to funding 894 00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:43,719 Speaker 5: for these AI firms, what are you hearing people look 895 00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:47,640 Speaker 5: at and question when sussing out which firms to invest in. 896 00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:50,680 Speaker 5: I think about the difference between the guests that we 897 00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:52,799 Speaker 5: have on who talk about betting on a C three 898 00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,880 Speaker 5: AI versus you know, a quall Comb or an Intel 899 00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:58,759 Speaker 5: some of these names that are AI adjacent but a 900 00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:01,080 Speaker 5: little bit more stable. What are you hearing when it 901 00:50:01,080 --> 00:50:02,360 Speaker 5: comes to that decision making. 902 00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:07,120 Speaker 12: Yeah, you know, obviously there's a lot of interest and 903 00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:09,959 Speaker 12: hype kind of around generative AI, but what we're also 904 00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:12,439 Speaker 12: seeing is investors are really interested in more of those 905 00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:15,680 Speaker 12: kind of infrastructure companies that are going to be powering 906 00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:17,520 Speaker 12: a lot of what's going on in AI and that 907 00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:21,880 Speaker 12: are sort of you know, adjacent or tangential to the 908 00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,080 Speaker 12: core AI companies. There's a lot of interest in that. 909 00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:26,920 Speaker 12: I think one investor who spoke with us kind of 910 00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:29,360 Speaker 12: you know, described it as looking for the nuts and 911 00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:31,920 Speaker 12: bolts that are going to be powering the AI revolution. 912 00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:33,960 Speaker 12: There's a lot of money going into that as well, 913 00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:38,680 Speaker 12: you know. I think, as with anything startup or venture capital, 914 00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:40,480 Speaker 12: we are also seeing a lot of companies that are 915 00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:43,000 Speaker 12: sort of just grabbing the AI label and sort of 916 00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:45,360 Speaker 12: trying to affiliate themselves with that. And I think with 917 00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:47,560 Speaker 12: time we'll sort of see a bit of a sorting 918 00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:49,560 Speaker 12: there of what's real and what's not. 919 00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:52,720 Speaker 3: We only have about a minute left, but what's next 920 00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:55,440 Speaker 3: that you're keeping your focus on on your radar as 921 00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:57,840 Speaker 3: far as what the trajectory could be. When we're talking 922 00:50:57,880 --> 00:51:00,759 Speaker 3: about these companies that are going through a investment or 923 00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:05,280 Speaker 3: these seed funding rounds, you know, I think seed funding 924 00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:08,120 Speaker 3: at the beginning of this venture downturn had held out 925 00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:11,000 Speaker 3: fairly well, and that's not surprising. It was really the 926 00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:13,840 Speaker 3: late stage startups that were the most impacted. But we 927 00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:17,440 Speaker 3: are starting to see that downturn trickle down through to 928 00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:21,680 Speaker 3: the earliest stages and that's, frankly, that's worrisome because that's 929 00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:24,240 Speaker 3: you know, the next class of companies that are going 930 00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:28,200 Speaker 3: to be unicorns, you know, five ten years down the road, 931 00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:31,719 Speaker 3: and so I think we will see this decline really 932 00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:35,080 Speaker 3: kind of extend for quite some time, with exceptions around 933 00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:37,600 Speaker 3: some of these sectors that really get a lot of funding, 934 00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:41,359 Speaker 3: But right now we're seeing venture funding down across all 935 00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:42,560 Speaker 3: stages of funding. 936 00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:46,279 Speaker 5: All right, MARLEEZ, thank you so much for joining us 937 00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:49,200 Speaker 5: to talk about your outlook and some of the picture 938 00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:53,520 Speaker 5: when it comes to funding for startups in San Francisco 939 00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:55,920 Speaker 5: and more broadly in the tech space. Really appreciate it. 940 00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:59,680 Speaker 5: That was Marlee's Van Romberg. She is editor in chief of. 941 00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:06,239 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcasts. You can 942 00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:10,040 Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever 943 00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:13,840 Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 944 00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:15,960 Speaker 2: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. 945 00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:18,800 Speaker 1: And I'm fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 946 00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:21,600 Speaker 2: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 947 00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:24,279 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio.