WEBVTT - Air Travel, Alcohol, and How to Bet On a Coin Toss 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:28.644 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:28.684 --> 0:00:31.324 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:30.924 --> 0:00:31.684 And I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:32.124 --> 0:00:35.084 So today on the show, note, we're going to start 0:00:35.164 --> 0:00:38.924 off by talking about some of the current events that 0:00:39.204 --> 0:00:43.044 we have been experiencing in the last week or so, 0:00:43.324 --> 0:00:46.684 some personal ones like poker, some less personal ones, but 0:00:46.804 --> 0:00:48.484 very important ones like plane crashes. 0:00:48.804 --> 0:00:51.924 Continue on this theme of everyday types of risk, we're 0:00:51.924 --> 0:00:54.724 talking about booze just in time for it not to 0:00:54.764 --> 0:00:58.284 be dry January. But there is a new Surgeon General 0:00:58.884 --> 0:01:02.324 discourse out warnings and Maria has and I have some 0:01:02.404 --> 0:01:03.404 thoughts on these. 0:01:03.564 --> 0:01:06.204 And finally we're going to be talking about my area 0:01:06.244 --> 0:01:08.284 of expertise, the Super Bowl. 0:01:15.284 --> 0:01:20.604 There's a lot going on. I'm like, I'm apartment hunting officially, Maria, 0:01:20.804 --> 0:01:23.444 I played some poker this weekend. I got fourth place 0:01:24.324 --> 0:01:24.964 in a tournament. 0:01:25.044 --> 0:01:25.244 It was. 0:01:27.044 --> 0:01:29.084 Four hundred dollars tournament. But you know, look, it's a 0:01:29.124 --> 0:01:32.204 it's a final table. It was big. Oh, it's a 0:01:32.244 --> 0:01:34.324 five card high low game. When I started playing, I 0:01:34.324 --> 0:01:36.884 did not know it was a split pot game. I 0:01:36.884 --> 0:01:40.124 thought it was a high only game. But nevertheless, luck 0:01:40.164 --> 0:01:43.964 box my way to a small but fun final table. 0:01:44.684 --> 0:01:47.004 That's fun, well before we get into serious stuff, and 0:01:47.004 --> 0:01:49.124 there's a lot of serious stuff that we need to 0:01:49.124 --> 0:01:52.124 cover this week. I love that you were able to 0:01:52.364 --> 0:01:55.164 kind of pick up the game midway through. So should 0:01:55.164 --> 0:01:57.284 I be registering ina tournament? 0:01:58.044 --> 0:02:02.204 It's kind of like, so in different ways, I'm both 0:02:02.244 --> 0:02:05.724 the best and the worst player at the table, right 0:02:05.804 --> 0:02:10.004 in terms of like overall tournament experience and like po knowledge. 0:02:10.044 --> 0:02:11.764 I mean this, I'm sure there are some pros there right, 0:02:11.844 --> 0:02:15.364 been a pretty recreational heavy field, so in terms of 0:02:15.404 --> 0:02:17.244 like kind of raw poker ability, But then like I 0:02:17.364 --> 0:02:20.684 won't know the equities in the hand, right, so you're 0:02:20.764 --> 0:02:23.044 very vulnerable to like, am I supposed to call a 0:02:23.124 --> 0:02:24.844 check braise with this hand? Am I supposed to value 0:02:24.844 --> 0:02:26.804 at this? Am I supposed to bluff this? You're kind 0:02:26.804 --> 0:02:31.924 of guessing? And so that battle resulted in a pretty 0:02:31.924 --> 0:02:34.564 good result. But also you know, also feeling, I mean, 0:02:34.764 --> 0:02:36.964 when you have relative mastery over Texas Hold, which is 0:02:36.964 --> 0:02:38.964 a game that both you and I play far more 0:02:39.004 --> 0:02:42.764 than anything else, right, It's it's kind of frustrating, like 0:02:42.804 --> 0:02:44.284 I just don't know the answer to this, right, Like 0:02:44.284 --> 0:02:46.964 I haven't studied this game, and like I'm just guessing 0:02:47.044 --> 0:02:50.084 and like trying to improvise, and and so it's chat. 0:02:50.124 --> 0:02:51.684 One reason I like the mixed games is because, like 0:02:52.004 --> 0:02:54.084 it's a challenge for your poker brain, right, You're trying 0:02:54.084 --> 0:02:58.444 to take these concepts and apply them to a different canvas. 0:03:00.244 --> 0:03:03.324 Well, I think that that's a really interesting overarching point 0:03:03.364 --> 0:03:05.884 that we are going to be actually talking about in 0:03:05.924 --> 0:03:09.004 some of the more newsy segments on today's show, which 0:03:09.084 --> 0:03:14.204 is kind of the way that our perceptions of risk 0:03:14.284 --> 0:03:17.124 can translate to different environments. For someone who is a 0:03:17.124 --> 0:03:20.244 poker player We've talked about this a lot, who actually 0:03:20.284 --> 0:03:23.764 does have that innate sense of probabilities, I'm guessing that 0:03:23.924 --> 0:03:26.444 you were better able to kind of get those risk 0:03:26.444 --> 0:03:30.564 assessments right than somebody who who wasn't right, who is 0:03:30.724 --> 0:03:35.444 just trying to go off of random experience or something 0:03:35.484 --> 0:03:37.444 like that. So I think that that's a really interesting 0:03:37.484 --> 0:03:40.324 point because when we talk about things that you know, 0:03:40.444 --> 0:03:43.404 like plane crashes, you know, risks in our daily life, alcohol, 0:03:43.444 --> 0:03:46.404 et cetera, it is interesting to try to see, you know, 0:03:46.404 --> 0:03:49.804 how can we calibrate risk perception based on past experience. 0:03:49.804 --> 0:03:52.724 And I think that this little this little poker Foray 0:03:52.804 --> 0:03:56.324 into a game that you had never played before. Is 0:03:56.324 --> 0:04:00.324 a really fun lens into that. Congratulations on your first 0:04:00.324 --> 0:04:02.564 final table of twenty twenty five, right. 0:04:02.604 --> 0:04:04.724 Thank you? Yeah, no, pretty good start. 0:04:04.844 --> 0:04:10.324 I hope it's the first of money Nate. So shall 0:04:10.364 --> 0:04:13.844 we shall we move on to slightly less fun topics. 0:04:13.884 --> 0:04:17.284 There has been a lot going on in the news 0:04:17.484 --> 0:04:20.724 this week since we you know, since we last spoke, 0:04:21.604 --> 0:04:24.484 both politically and also in the sports news, and we'll 0:04:24.484 --> 0:04:27.924 be covering, uh, we'll be covering those as well. But yeah, 0:04:28.004 --> 0:04:31.124 you you had a very funny emergency post on sports. 0:04:31.524 --> 0:04:34.044 Yeah, when I was playing this tournament, there's just like 0:04:34.284 --> 0:04:36.124 esp and my phone's dead. It's like one in the 0:04:36.164 --> 0:04:38.004 morning at this point, right, and like there's an ESPN 0:04:38.044 --> 0:04:41.564 alert that Luka Doncic, the Great Dollars former Dallas maverick, 0:04:41.804 --> 0:04:45.764 uh point guard unicorn, you could describe them as different 0:04:45.764 --> 0:04:49.004 positions was traded in this deal. It's like totally inexplicable 0:04:49.004 --> 0:04:50.764 because usually you get a really high return, but was 0:04:50.764 --> 0:04:53.684 traded to the La Lakers for Anthony Davis and a 0:04:53.684 --> 0:04:56.364 bunch of crap and a first round draft pick basically, 0:04:57.724 --> 0:05:01.964 and yeah, it's probably the most shocking NBA trade in history. 0:05:02.004 --> 0:05:03.964 If you want to read more about my view on that, 0:05:04.084 --> 0:05:09.684 go to Silver bulletin my newsletter on substack. Tariff's another 0:05:09.684 --> 0:05:15.204 story running about this week. This is a very influx policy. 0:05:15.724 --> 0:05:18.924 Full disclosure. We're taping this on Monday afternoon, East Coast time. 0:05:20.364 --> 0:05:24.244 Terrafts went into effect on China and Mexico over the weekend. However, 0:05:24.964 --> 0:05:27.644 an hour or something ago, Trump suspended for a month 0:05:27.684 --> 0:05:31.884 tariffs on Mexico after Mexico made some concessions, saying they 0:05:31.884 --> 0:05:33.484 would deplay a bunch of troops in the US. 0:05:33.404 --> 0:05:35.524 Border ten thousand troops night. 0:05:36.444 --> 0:05:38.164 We have a lot of leverage. There's a lot of 0:05:38.284 --> 0:05:42.284 game theory involved, both in terms of the domestic political 0:05:42.284 --> 0:05:45.084 reaction to the terriffs and in terms of these other countries. 0:05:45.124 --> 0:05:47.124 I mean, we have I was just looking at this, right, 0:05:47.524 --> 0:05:50.244 do you know that US exports are twenty six point 0:05:50.324 --> 0:05:52.764 four percent of Mexico's GDP. 0:05:53.124 --> 0:05:55.084 I had no idea that is a high percentage. 0:05:55.204 --> 0:05:57.644 Our exports to Mexico are one point two percent, right, 0:05:57.684 --> 0:06:00.124 so they can retaliate. We're like, fuck you, Mexico. But 0:06:00.364 --> 0:06:04.844 you know the fact that we're levering these allies is 0:06:04.964 --> 0:06:08.804 just kind of gross in some ways. But anyway, there's 0:06:08.804 --> 0:06:10.284 a lot to talk and I'm sure that'll be a 0:06:10.324 --> 0:06:12.324 theme that will hit on going forward the next couple 0:06:12.404 --> 0:06:12.844 of weeks. 0:06:13.124 --> 0:06:14.764 Yeah, absolutely, I think it's going to be a really 0:06:14.764 --> 0:06:18.524 important topic. There are also there are a number of 0:06:18.604 --> 0:06:22.244 other interesting and concerning policies that have come out in 0:06:22.284 --> 0:06:24.564 the last week. I don't know if we want to 0:06:24.564 --> 0:06:28.244 get into all of them. Giving Elon Musk's access to 0:06:28.324 --> 0:06:32.524 treasury payment systems is something that I think is you know, 0:06:32.924 --> 0:06:36.204 it is notable, but has kind of gone under the radar. 0:06:36.284 --> 0:06:39.124 What's going to happen to us for an aid? All 0:06:39.204 --> 0:06:41.764 of these things are I think topics that we might 0:06:41.804 --> 0:06:44.164 talk about in the future, but as of now, I 0:06:44.204 --> 0:06:46.924 think it actually doesn't make sense to talk about them 0:06:47.004 --> 0:06:49.524 because it's too much speculation. We don't know what's actually 0:06:49.524 --> 0:06:51.164 going to happen, we don't know how it's going to 0:06:51.204 --> 0:06:55.404 be enacted, and we don't know how much is Bark versus. 0:06:55.404 --> 0:06:58.284 But I think that that's kind of the bottom line 0:06:58.284 --> 0:06:58.804 on a lot of this. 0:06:59.124 --> 0:07:02.644 And look, there's also so one thing that like I 0:07:02.684 --> 0:07:05.804 think poker teaches you, but also life stress. We both 0:07:05.844 --> 0:07:07.844 have lots of interesting life experience at this point, right, 0:07:07.964 --> 0:07:10.804 is like can you do with multiple things going on 0:07:10.884 --> 0:07:15.884 at once and prioritize? And it seems like Democrats are 0:07:16.004 --> 0:07:20.444 not good at that. I think both kind of constitutionally 0:07:21.444 --> 0:07:24.084 that's a whole theory about like different personality traits, but 0:07:24.124 --> 0:07:27.164 also just like people aren't used to having like all 0:07:27.164 --> 0:07:31.724 these different stories at once, and prioritizing is essential and like, 0:07:32.444 --> 0:07:33.844 but people don't do it right. They tend to like 0:07:33.884 --> 0:07:35.484 focus on Like, so there's all this focus on the 0:07:35.524 --> 0:07:38.644 first week. Maybe the biggest story until the tariff stuff 0:07:38.644 --> 0:07:41.884 and I'm playing crash was Elon Musk's salute. We talked 0:07:41.924 --> 0:07:45.484 about that in me a little bit last week, and 0:07:45.564 --> 0:07:49.324 like this is not the most important. We're trying to 0:07:49.444 --> 0:07:52.044 leverage our friends north and south of the border and 0:07:52.124 --> 0:07:57.564 Elon controls of Treasury Department payout system and like AI stuff. 0:07:57.564 --> 0:08:00.124 I mean, all this stuff is like quite a lot 0:08:00.164 --> 0:08:00.924 more important. 0:08:01.444 --> 0:08:06.484 I wrote about multitasking briefly on my substack this past 0:08:06.524 --> 0:08:09.284 week because I think that it's so important to remember 0:08:09.444 --> 0:08:12.284 how our brain works, right, and how attention works, because 0:08:12.484 --> 0:08:14.204 it's really playing in And we talked about this a 0:08:14.204 --> 0:08:18.324 little bit. To Trump's strategy right overwhelm overwhelm. Overwhelm because 0:08:18.404 --> 0:08:20.844 our brain is like ooh yay, like I get to 0:08:21.244 --> 0:08:23.444 do all of these different things. It's really hard to focus, 0:08:23.764 --> 0:08:26.284 and it's really hard to kind of figure out what's 0:08:26.324 --> 0:08:28.084 best on. Our brain is not good at that, right, 0:08:28.084 --> 0:08:30.324 Like our brain wants to be all over the place, 0:08:31.044 --> 0:08:34.684 and so this just plays into kind of the worst 0:08:34.724 --> 0:08:37.804 vulnerabilities in our thinking. That's why what I said last week, 0:08:37.804 --> 0:08:41.364 I think is still the message, which is focus, right, like, figure, 0:08:41.684 --> 0:08:45.444 reclaim your attention, focus on what's important, prioritize you need, 0:08:45.764 --> 0:08:47.964 you need to kind of see, okay, what are our priorities, 0:08:48.004 --> 0:08:50.484 what's the coherent message here? And knowing that that, by 0:08:50.484 --> 0:08:52.484 the way, is not like a Democrat or Republican, that's 0:08:52.524 --> 0:08:55.284 just like a human failing. Right. Our brains are really 0:08:55.284 --> 0:08:57.564 really bad at that, right, and Trump is really really 0:08:57.604 --> 0:09:00.084 good at taking advantage of it. It's like, you know, 0:09:00.364 --> 0:09:02.724 like social media, right. Social media is designed to take 0:09:02.764 --> 0:09:06.484 advantage of that brain's inability to focus and the desire 0:09:06.524 --> 0:09:08.604 to have all of these different things happening at once. 0:09:08.884 --> 0:09:12.764 And Trump, like the human walking social media, he's so 0:09:12.804 --> 0:09:14.844 good as just throwing all this shit out there, seeing 0:09:14.844 --> 0:09:15.404 what sticks. 0:09:15.564 --> 0:09:18.924 Trump and social media and the regular media too, right, 0:09:19.124 --> 0:09:22.524 But algorithmically and editorially people are very aware of like 0:09:22.644 --> 0:09:25.124 what things make headlines, and kind of plane crashes are 0:09:25.124 --> 0:09:30.044 in a classic category where I mean it used to 0:09:30.124 --> 0:09:32.804 be I used to think when a plane crash in 0:09:32.804 --> 0:09:36.724 the US, this was like almost a hurricane type story 0:09:36.764 --> 0:09:38.924 for days. And you know, one reason why that's not 0:09:38.964 --> 0:09:42.644 as much anymore because there are far fewer plane crashes. 0:09:42.764 --> 0:09:46.604 Flying on airplanes on commercial airlines in the US is 0:09:46.644 --> 0:09:50.964 incredibly safe. But you know, but when there are crashes, 0:09:51.044 --> 0:09:54.324 then then they freak people out, and that changes the 0:09:54.324 --> 0:09:56.764 incentives toward more and more safety. 0:09:57.164 --> 0:10:00.924 Yeah, so let's talk about that. Obviously, last week was 0:10:00.964 --> 0:10:04.564 the first major aviation disaster since two thousand and nine, 0:10:04.964 --> 0:10:06.884 so it's been a one, it's been a minute, right, 0:10:07.644 --> 0:10:11.204 which goes to your point that general plane travel is 0:10:11.284 --> 0:10:16.364 incredibly safe, even though our risk perception gets overblown because 0:10:16.524 --> 0:10:19.244 we do have an outsize focus on events like this, 0:10:19.604 --> 0:10:21.524 as we should by the way, you know, I think, 0:10:21.564 --> 0:10:25.124 I think that it's actually important to hold kind of 0:10:25.164 --> 0:10:29.084 these these sorts of institutions to account in the sense 0:10:29.164 --> 0:10:32.204 that one of the one of the things that has 0:10:32.204 --> 0:10:34.884 come out of this is that oh, Hey, there were 0:10:34.924 --> 0:10:37.764 a lot of safety concerns that have been ignored, a 0:10:37.764 --> 0:10:40.564 lot of safety recommendations that have been ignored for years, 0:10:40.724 --> 0:10:44.084 specifically with the DC air space. There were recommendations that 0:10:44.124 --> 0:10:46.804 the DC air space was already overstressed, and yet more 0:10:46.844 --> 0:10:49.284 and more flights kept getting added, you know, et cetera, 0:10:49.324 --> 0:10:53.404 et cetera, et cetera, and people ignored them because nothing 0:10:53.484 --> 0:10:56.844 had happened since two thousand and nine. So there's some 0:10:56.964 --> 0:11:02.164 really interesting statistics that near misses have gone up, actually 0:11:02.244 --> 0:11:05.724 a huge amount, and near misses is accidents that almost 0:11:05.764 --> 0:11:11.604 happen but not quite so since from a decade ago, 0:11:11.684 --> 0:11:14.724 we have a twenty five percent increase in runway incursions. 0:11:14.724 --> 0:11:18.524 So that's near misses just on the runway, which is 0:11:18.524 --> 0:11:21.404 a lot, right, not not that high in terms of 0:11:21.404 --> 0:11:27.564 absolute numbers, but in relative terms, something that's a little 0:11:27.564 --> 0:11:31.244 bit worrisome. And we have near misses mid air, not 0:11:31.444 --> 0:11:34.484 just on the runway, you know, takeoffs, landing, all all 0:11:34.484 --> 0:11:38.564 sorts of things like that. But because everything tends to 0:11:38.644 --> 0:11:42.324 work out okay, people are just like, eh, it's totally fine. 0:11:42.444 --> 0:11:45.604 So this is a big logical fallacy that people commit 0:11:45.684 --> 0:11:48.964 all the time, and it's called the near miss fallacy. 0:11:49.044 --> 0:11:52.044 So it's almost leads to something that we talk about 0:11:52.044 --> 0:11:54.484 often on the show over Confidence, right that like, oh, 0:11:54.524 --> 0:11:56.844 it'll all work out. This means the system's working like 0:11:56.924 --> 0:11:59.884 it's all good. No, it means that the system is 0:11:59.924 --> 0:12:03.084 barely holding on and you've gotten you know, how many 0:12:03.084 --> 0:12:05.884 times did it work versus you got lucky? And that's 0:12:05.924 --> 0:12:09.644 such a difficult thing to track, and both you and 0:12:09.684 --> 0:12:12.284 I know that you know, being outcome oriented is not 0:12:12.364 --> 0:12:13.764 the way to do it. You need to make sure 0:12:13.804 --> 0:12:15.284 that your process is intact. 0:12:15.684 --> 0:12:17.404 No, And in fact, if you're doing some type of 0:12:17.444 --> 0:12:21.964 like statistical modeling, then near misses give you data and 0:12:22.004 --> 0:12:24.364 tend to actually increase the incidence of the thing that 0:12:24.404 --> 0:12:29.084 you fear going forward. Right, if if we intercept a 0:12:29.644 --> 0:12:32.364 you know, attempt, a terrorist attack on the Brooklyn Bridge 0:12:32.884 --> 0:12:35.524 or something, right, that's not good news. Assuming the attack 0:12:35.564 --> 0:12:38.804 got like reasonably far along in the planning stage, that 0:12:38.844 --> 0:12:42.004 means that like the incidence of terrorism is maybe higher 0:12:42.044 --> 0:12:46.964 than we would have thought, right, because usually you know, 0:12:47.444 --> 0:12:49.244 when you look back at something like nine to eleven, 0:12:49.284 --> 0:12:51.324 you're like, how many different things had to go wrong 0:12:51.444 --> 0:12:53.764 or right? And how many signals do we have to 0:12:53.844 --> 0:12:55.644 miss right, And it is true that to pull off 0:12:55.684 --> 0:12:57.884 like a complicated attack or any type of disaster where 0:12:57.884 --> 0:13:02.404 there are multiple redundant systems in place, like you know, two, three, four, 0:13:02.484 --> 0:13:05.164 things have to go wrong. But still if you say, 0:13:05.284 --> 0:13:07.404 if you say, oh, three things went wrong, but we 0:13:07.444 --> 0:13:09.764 got lucky in the fourth thing and it saved us. Right. 0:13:10.164 --> 0:13:14.884 To take a more recent example, the fact that President Trump, 0:13:15.044 --> 0:13:22.924 than its cannony Trump was nearly assassinated, really bad news, right, yeah, 0:13:23.404 --> 0:13:25.004 really bad news in terms of like the rise of 0:13:25.044 --> 0:13:26.324 political violence in the US. 0:13:26.484 --> 0:13:29.284 Yeah. No, the takeaway from that isn't great, but he 0:13:29.444 --> 0:13:33.284 wasn't assassinated. Sources to worked correctly, the takeaway is, oh shit, 0:13:33.524 --> 0:13:37.044 you know what happened to make that even possible? And 0:13:37.124 --> 0:13:40.244 so but the you know, but oftentimes we do the 0:13:40.284 --> 0:13:42.644 exact opposite, right, and people are like, oh, we don't 0:13:42.684 --> 0:13:46.044 need to implement these recommendations. We don't need to you know, 0:13:46.084 --> 0:13:48.084 spend more money on this, We don't need to really 0:13:48.524 --> 0:13:50.884 relieve this airspace or whatever it is, because it's all 0:13:50.924 --> 0:13:53.564 been working out, no crashes since two thousand and nine. 0:13:53.964 --> 0:13:57.764 So this is you know, what happened was absolutely horrible, 0:13:57.924 --> 0:14:04.124 and it seems like absolutely preventable, and that overconfidence and 0:14:04.644 --> 0:14:08.124 kind of a lack of accountability on some in some 0:14:08.204 --> 0:14:11.804 respects is one of the reasons that we're having this 0:14:11.884 --> 0:14:15.724 conversation now. So if there is a silver lining, I 0:14:15.724 --> 0:14:18.524 hope that it is that, you know, people actually start 0:14:18.524 --> 0:14:20.804 looking at the process and realizing that the number of 0:14:20.884 --> 0:14:24.524 near misses that we have both mid air, on the ground, takeoffs, 0:14:24.604 --> 0:14:28.044 landings are actually important. And as you say, like if 0:14:28.124 --> 0:14:31.404 you were building a statistical model, all of these things 0:14:31.884 --> 0:14:34.964 change your probability, and not for the better, right, your 0:14:35.044 --> 0:14:38.924 priority probabilities have to be adjusted, not in a good direction. 0:14:40.084 --> 0:14:42.284 And so I hope that this is a wake up call. 0:14:42.644 --> 0:14:43.924 Do you think it will be? I don't know. 0:14:44.124 --> 0:14:47.044 Okay, now I'm gonna see the controversial thing, right, I 0:14:47.084 --> 0:14:54.084 am not sure that it's rational to put more resources 0:14:54.084 --> 0:14:59.964 into aviation safety. Right, defined as follows right. So, the 0:15:00.004 --> 0:15:03.724 statistical value of a life is a concept we've talked 0:15:03.724 --> 0:15:06.324 about before on this show. Yeah, and that is how 0:15:06.404 --> 0:15:08.484 much are people willing to pay. It's not based on 0:15:08.484 --> 0:15:10.404 some bureaucrats in a back office. It's how much people 0:15:10.404 --> 0:15:14.564 willing to pay to ensure their risk of surviving or 0:15:14.604 --> 0:15:19.044 extend their life. Right, and comes out to about ten 0:15:19.084 --> 0:15:23.084 million dollars. That if people could gamble and say I'll 0:15:23.084 --> 0:15:24.524 give you ten million dollars and you have a one 0:15:24.604 --> 0:15:27.164 n x chance of dying, right, I mean, you know, 0:15:27.204 --> 0:15:29.404 there's some nonlinearities, but it comes from like things like 0:15:31.324 --> 0:15:34.164 people being willing to do dangerous tasks, are being willing 0:15:34.204 --> 0:15:41.084 to have medical inventions or buy safety features, right, and 0:15:41.164 --> 0:15:43.724 across all different ways this is measured, it's pretty consistently 0:15:43.764 --> 0:15:47.684 about ten million. For aviation safety. It's much higher than that. 0:15:47.724 --> 0:15:54.004 People fear. People fear hijackings, and they fear plane crashes. 0:15:54.044 --> 0:15:56.644 It would be an obviously terrible way to die, but 0:15:56.844 --> 0:15:58.484 like you know, not every time that, I mean, the 0:15:59.244 --> 0:16:01.444 failure rate should not be zero. 0:16:01.684 --> 0:16:01.804 Right. 0:16:01.804 --> 0:16:03.564 To take a much less serious example, you hear the 0:16:03.604 --> 0:16:05.764 phrase like if you've never missed a flight, you're not 0:16:05.764 --> 0:16:07.924 doing it right, meaning that like, if you're flying from 0:16:08.604 --> 0:16:11.564 New York to Chicago, go there are you know, fifteen 0:16:11.564 --> 0:16:16.004 flights an hour an hour? But a lot, right, not 0:16:16.004 --> 0:16:19.084 that much consequence to missing your flight. Obviously, any crash 0:16:19.204 --> 0:16:21.884 involving what are we up to, like seventy deaths roughly 0:16:23.884 --> 0:16:27.404 is more serious. But at the same time, like you know, 0:16:27.684 --> 0:16:31.084 bad shit's supposed to happen some of the time because 0:16:31.084 --> 0:16:34.844 the alternative is that you are paying gigantic amounts for 0:16:36.564 --> 0:16:38.964 safety features. And I mean you see this, right, You see, 0:16:39.044 --> 0:16:42.924 like in construction of the New York Subway, for example, 0:16:43.004 --> 0:16:46.724 there are so many commitments to different groups and to 0:16:46.764 --> 0:16:49.204 safety equipments and a special interest that it just is 0:16:49.244 --> 0:16:55.484 incredibly expensive to do anything. So you know, this is 0:16:55.564 --> 0:16:58.844 kind of more high level bravarian thinking to you, but 0:16:58.924 --> 0:17:01.684 like being willing to think about in terms of trade, uster, 0:17:01.804 --> 0:17:07.964 what is the price of reducing air traffic fatalities, right, 0:17:08.404 --> 0:17:11.004 compared to what we might spend on other things like 0:17:11.724 --> 0:17:16.844 road safety or medical safety or other things. Right. And 0:17:16.844 --> 0:17:19.844 the fact is that humans are pretty inconsistent, yeah, about 0:17:19.964 --> 0:17:22.244 kind of what they're willing to what risks they're willing 0:17:22.244 --> 0:17:23.164 to take action to prevent. 0:17:23.404 --> 0:17:25.284 I think that that is a very valid point that 0:17:25.764 --> 0:17:29.484 we are inconsistent. However, I will kind of push back 0:17:29.524 --> 0:17:34.044 a little bit, not in terms of like overall spending, right, 0:17:34.084 --> 0:17:37.124 But what I'm talking about is how we respond to 0:17:37.964 --> 0:17:41.684 two different risks and what the takeaway is from near missus. Right. 0:17:42.124 --> 0:17:45.404 You could reallocate spending, you could not make stupid decisions 0:17:45.444 --> 0:17:48.924 like adding over sixty flights to an airspace that you've 0:17:49.004 --> 0:17:52.364 already been warned is overcrowded. This doesn't have to do 0:17:52.444 --> 0:17:56.284 with pouring more money into it. This is just risk management, 0:17:56.324 --> 0:17:59.964 making different decisions, making different process decisions, holding yourself to 0:18:00.244 --> 0:18:03.964 different accountability, maybe reallocating some of the funds you already 0:18:04.004 --> 0:18:08.764 have to kind of two different things, looking at training, 0:18:08.884 --> 0:18:11.404 like looking and looking at models from the bottom up, 0:18:12.164 --> 0:18:15.444 and reassessing a lot of kind of the decision making 0:18:15.484 --> 0:18:19.244 along the way, as opposed to complacently saying, oh, everything's 0:18:19.284 --> 0:18:22.204 fine or I think it's actually the lazy thing is 0:18:22.244 --> 0:18:24.924 just to throw money at it, right, because why throw 0:18:25.004 --> 0:18:27.404 money if you don't even know you know, first you 0:18:27.444 --> 0:18:30.684 need to figure out what are we fixing, what's going wrong? 0:18:31.044 --> 0:18:33.404 What's going wrong in the human decision making and the 0:18:33.444 --> 0:18:36.284 non human decision making? Right, like a where are the 0:18:36.324 --> 0:18:39.284 systems most vulnerable? And if we don't do that, I 0:18:39.284 --> 0:18:42.244 don't care if we allocate billions of dollars to the problem, 0:18:42.404 --> 0:18:44.844 it's not going to help, right. That's what happens with 0:18:46.004 --> 0:18:49.964 bad financial decision making, where you just think, oh, you know, 0:18:50.404 --> 0:18:52.444 pouring money out the problem is going to help. So 0:18:52.804 --> 0:18:54.404 I think that that's kind of the way of thinking 0:18:54.484 --> 0:18:57.524 about it, not just like, oh, you know, like let's 0:18:57.884 --> 0:19:00.284 either allocate more money or not. I think that a 0:19:00.284 --> 0:19:03.404 lot of people made bad decisions along the way. And 0:19:03.684 --> 0:19:08.164 this was also differences in priorities, right because people say, oh, well, 0:19:08.164 --> 0:19:11.244 you know, Senator X, Senator why, and Senator Z all 0:19:11.284 --> 0:19:13.804 need direct flights home, and so we're going to add 0:19:13.844 --> 0:19:17.644 those roots to you know, for that specific reason. That's 0:19:17.684 --> 0:19:19.964 really bad. Right now, what are you saying about the 0:19:20.004 --> 0:19:23.004 value of human life? Right You're saying that this person's 0:19:24.044 --> 0:19:28.444 preference on when he gets home is much more important 0:19:28.484 --> 0:19:32.764 than the safety of all of the people who are 0:19:32.804 --> 0:19:36.244 flying through this airspace. Right, So there have been some 0:19:36.444 --> 0:19:41.364 questionable decision making results along the way, and I think 0:19:41.364 --> 0:19:43.284 those are the types of things we should be looking at. 0:19:43.364 --> 0:19:45.724 But I think your other point is very well taken 0:19:46.124 --> 0:19:48.324 and something that you know, we do talk about on 0:19:48.364 --> 0:19:51.364 the show. But I think it's just something that's really 0:19:51.924 --> 0:19:55.164 worth stressing over and over because even though I know it, 0:19:55.244 --> 0:19:58.844 I still fall for it. Right when we do inconsistently 0:19:58.964 --> 0:20:01.604 take these risk assessments where we do, you know, we 0:20:01.724 --> 0:20:04.404 are too scared of a plane crash too, scared of 0:20:04.404 --> 0:20:07.644 a hijacking, not scared enough of, you know, crossing the 0:20:07.684 --> 0:20:11.844 street where our chance of dying is actually much higher, 0:20:12.404 --> 0:20:14.964 right and being hit by a car, having something horrible happen. 0:20:16.004 --> 0:20:20.444 You know, we do have very inconsistent risk preferences, and 0:20:20.484 --> 0:20:23.124 that's something that you know, we should just constantly remind 0:20:23.164 --> 0:20:26.444 ourselves of, constantly remind our listeners of, and constantly remind 0:20:26.444 --> 0:20:29.564 our brains of, so that we try to behave more rationally, 0:20:29.564 --> 0:20:31.484 even though at the end of the day, emotion always 0:20:31.484 --> 0:20:34.324 gets into it. It's really difficult not to have emotion 0:20:34.444 --> 0:20:37.364 in your decisions when it comes to you and immediate 0:20:37.364 --> 0:20:41.364 decision making as opposed to having kind of the time 0:20:41.444 --> 0:20:46.804 and space and leisure to think through it in a 0:20:46.844 --> 0:20:47.644 more rational way. 0:20:47.844 --> 0:20:49.964 I remember I was in Costa Rica a couple of 0:20:50.004 --> 0:20:52.284 years ago with some friends and we were like staying 0:20:52.364 --> 0:20:56.324 at this airbnb on a hill and the coaster is 0:20:56.524 --> 0:21:02.684 very very wet, right, with like torrential thunderstorms like a lot, right, 0:21:02.764 --> 0:21:06.044 maybe every day, but yeah, we're like driving down this 0:21:06.204 --> 0:21:11.044 like dirt road in a thunderstorm in a country we've 0:21:11.044 --> 0:21:15.244 never been in before. Like, probably not the best idea, 0:21:15.284 --> 0:21:17.484 even though like they have incredible drainage systems, right, they're 0:21:17.524 --> 0:21:21.044 used to this problem. But sometimes you gotta be like 0:21:21.044 --> 0:21:22.524 fuck it, you know what I mean. I mean, if 0:21:22.564 --> 0:21:25.204 you never take there's like a portfolio of like you 0:21:25.204 --> 0:21:28.284 should get like one fuck it card a year. I 0:21:28.324 --> 0:21:31.684 feel like, maybe, yeah, we could, we could talk about 0:21:31.684 --> 0:21:34.964 this stuff every week. Let's go on and talk about booze. 0:21:35.084 --> 0:21:38.724 Right, yeah, let's let's uh, let's talk about some alcohol warnings. 0:21:38.764 --> 0:21:56.044 After this break, we have had some news coming out 0:21:56.044 --> 0:21:58.324 on the alcohol front. I don't know if it was 0:21:58.404 --> 0:22:01.764 time to coincide with dry January when lots of people 0:22:02.204 --> 0:22:05.404 decide to, you know, abstain from drinking, but that's that's 0:22:05.444 --> 0:22:10.124 when it came out. So the Surgeon General earlier had 0:22:10.164 --> 0:22:14.524 issue to report on the potential cancer risks associated with 0:22:15.004 --> 0:22:20.684 drinking any alcohol whatsoever. And so are you know, there 0:22:20.764 --> 0:22:23.084 are now talks of putting morning labels like you have 0:22:23.164 --> 0:22:26.964 on cigarettes right on all alcohol saying, you know, sculling 0:22:27.004 --> 0:22:30.844