1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:28,644 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:28,684 --> 00:00:31,324 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 3 00:00:30,924 --> 00:00:31,684 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. 4 00:00:32,124 --> 00:00:35,084 Speaker 1: So today on the show, note, we're going to start 5 00:00:35,164 --> 00:00:38,924 Speaker 1: off by talking about some of the current events that 6 00:00:39,204 --> 00:00:43,044 Speaker 1: we have been experiencing in the last week or so, 7 00:00:43,324 --> 00:00:46,684 Speaker 1: some personal ones like poker, some less personal ones, but 8 00:00:46,804 --> 00:00:48,484 Speaker 1: very important ones like plane crashes. 9 00:00:48,804 --> 00:00:51,924 Speaker 2: Continue on this theme of everyday types of risk, we're 10 00:00:51,924 --> 00:00:54,724 Speaker 2: talking about booze just in time for it not to 11 00:00:54,764 --> 00:00:58,284 Speaker 2: be dry January. But there is a new Surgeon General 12 00:00:58,884 --> 00:01:02,324 Speaker 2: discourse out warnings and Maria has and I have some 13 00:01:02,404 --> 00:01:03,404 Speaker 2: thoughts on these. 14 00:01:03,564 --> 00:01:06,204 Speaker 1: And finally we're going to be talking about my area 15 00:01:06,244 --> 00:01:08,284 Speaker 1: of expertise, the Super Bowl. 16 00:01:15,284 --> 00:01:20,604 Speaker 2: There's a lot going on. I'm like, I'm apartment hunting officially, Maria, 17 00:01:20,804 --> 00:01:23,444 Speaker 2: I played some poker this weekend. I got fourth place 18 00:01:24,324 --> 00:01:24,964 Speaker 2: in a tournament. 19 00:01:25,044 --> 00:01:25,244 Speaker 1: It was. 20 00:01:27,044 --> 00:01:29,084 Speaker 2: Four hundred dollars tournament. But you know, look, it's a 21 00:01:29,124 --> 00:01:32,204 Speaker 2: it's a final table. It was big. Oh, it's a 22 00:01:32,244 --> 00:01:34,324 Speaker 2: five card high low game. When I started playing, I 23 00:01:34,324 --> 00:01:36,884 Speaker 2: did not know it was a split pot game. I 24 00:01:36,884 --> 00:01:40,124 Speaker 2: thought it was a high only game. But nevertheless, luck 25 00:01:40,164 --> 00:01:43,964 Speaker 2: box my way to a small but fun final table. 26 00:01:44,684 --> 00:01:47,004 Speaker 1: That's fun, well before we get into serious stuff, and 27 00:01:47,004 --> 00:01:49,124 Speaker 1: there's a lot of serious stuff that we need to 28 00:01:49,124 --> 00:01:52,124 Speaker 1: cover this week. I love that you were able to 29 00:01:52,364 --> 00:01:55,164 Speaker 1: kind of pick up the game midway through. So should 30 00:01:55,164 --> 00:01:57,284 Speaker 1: I be registering ina tournament? 31 00:01:58,044 --> 00:02:02,204 Speaker 2: It's kind of like, so in different ways, I'm both 32 00:02:02,244 --> 00:02:05,724 Speaker 2: the best and the worst player at the table, right 33 00:02:05,804 --> 00:02:10,004 Speaker 2: in terms of like overall tournament experience and like po knowledge. 34 00:02:10,044 --> 00:02:11,764 Speaker 2: I mean this, I'm sure there are some pros there right, 35 00:02:11,844 --> 00:02:15,364 Speaker 2: been a pretty recreational heavy field, so in terms of 36 00:02:15,404 --> 00:02:17,244 Speaker 2: like kind of raw poker ability, But then like I 37 00:02:17,364 --> 00:02:20,684 Speaker 2: won't know the equities in the hand, right, so you're 38 00:02:20,764 --> 00:02:23,044 Speaker 2: very vulnerable to like, am I supposed to call a 39 00:02:23,124 --> 00:02:24,844 Speaker 2: check braise with this hand? Am I supposed to value 40 00:02:24,844 --> 00:02:26,804 Speaker 2: at this? Am I supposed to bluff this? You're kind 41 00:02:26,804 --> 00:02:31,924 Speaker 2: of guessing? And so that battle resulted in a pretty 42 00:02:31,924 --> 00:02:34,564 Speaker 2: good result. But also you know, also feeling, I mean, 43 00:02:34,764 --> 00:02:36,964 Speaker 2: when you have relative mastery over Texas Hold, which is 44 00:02:36,964 --> 00:02:38,964 Speaker 2: a game that both you and I play far more 45 00:02:39,004 --> 00:02:42,764 Speaker 2: than anything else, right, It's it's kind of frustrating, like 46 00:02:42,804 --> 00:02:44,284 Speaker 2: I just don't know the answer to this, right, Like 47 00:02:44,284 --> 00:02:46,964 Speaker 2: I haven't studied this game, and like I'm just guessing 48 00:02:47,044 --> 00:02:50,084 Speaker 2: and like trying to improvise, and and so it's chat. 49 00:02:50,124 --> 00:02:51,684 Speaker 2: One reason I like the mixed games is because, like 50 00:02:52,004 --> 00:02:54,084 Speaker 2: it's a challenge for your poker brain, right, You're trying 51 00:02:54,084 --> 00:02:58,444 Speaker 2: to take these concepts and apply them to a different canvas. 52 00:03:00,244 --> 00:03:03,324 Speaker 1: Well, I think that that's a really interesting overarching point 53 00:03:03,364 --> 00:03:05,884 Speaker 1: that we are going to be actually talking about in 54 00:03:05,924 --> 00:03:09,004 Speaker 1: some of the more newsy segments on today's show, which 55 00:03:09,084 --> 00:03:14,204 Speaker 1: is kind of the way that our perceptions of risk 56 00:03:14,284 --> 00:03:17,124 Speaker 1: can translate to different environments. For someone who is a 57 00:03:17,124 --> 00:03:20,244 Speaker 1: poker player We've talked about this a lot, who actually 58 00:03:20,284 --> 00:03:23,764 Speaker 1: does have that innate sense of probabilities, I'm guessing that 59 00:03:23,924 --> 00:03:26,444 Speaker 1: you were better able to kind of get those risk 60 00:03:26,444 --> 00:03:30,564 Speaker 1: assessments right than somebody who who wasn't right, who is 61 00:03:30,724 --> 00:03:35,444 Speaker 1: just trying to go off of random experience or something 62 00:03:35,484 --> 00:03:37,444 Speaker 1: like that. So I think that that's a really interesting 63 00:03:37,484 --> 00:03:40,324 Speaker 1: point because when we talk about things that you know, 64 00:03:40,444 --> 00:03:43,404 Speaker 1: like plane crashes, you know, risks in our daily life, alcohol, 65 00:03:43,444 --> 00:03:46,404 Speaker 1: et cetera, it is interesting to try to see, you know, 66 00:03:46,404 --> 00:03:49,804 Speaker 1: how can we calibrate risk perception based on past experience. 67 00:03:49,804 --> 00:03:52,724 Speaker 1: And I think that this little this little poker Foray 68 00:03:52,804 --> 00:03:56,324 Speaker 1: into a game that you had never played before. Is 69 00:03:56,324 --> 00:04:00,324 Speaker 1: a really fun lens into that. Congratulations on your first 70 00:04:00,324 --> 00:04:02,564 Speaker 1: final table of twenty twenty five, right. 71 00:04:02,604 --> 00:04:04,724 Speaker 2: Thank you? Yeah, no, pretty good start. 72 00:04:04,844 --> 00:04:10,324 Speaker 1: I hope it's the first of money Nate. So shall 73 00:04:10,364 --> 00:04:13,844 Speaker 1: we shall we move on to slightly less fun topics. 74 00:04:13,884 --> 00:04:17,284 Speaker 1: There has been a lot going on in the news 75 00:04:17,484 --> 00:04:20,724 Speaker 1: this week since we you know, since we last spoke, 76 00:04:21,604 --> 00:04:24,484 Speaker 1: both politically and also in the sports news, and we'll 77 00:04:24,484 --> 00:04:27,924 Speaker 1: be covering, uh, we'll be covering those as well. But yeah, 78 00:04:28,004 --> 00:04:31,124 Speaker 1: you you had a very funny emergency post on sports. 79 00:04:31,524 --> 00:04:34,044 Speaker 2: Yeah, when I was playing this tournament, there's just like 80 00:04:34,284 --> 00:04:36,124 Speaker 2: esp and my phone's dead. It's like one in the 81 00:04:36,164 --> 00:04:38,004 Speaker 2: morning at this point, right, and like there's an ESPN 82 00:04:38,044 --> 00:04:41,564 Speaker 2: alert that Luka Doncic, the Great Dollars former Dallas maverick, 83 00:04:41,804 --> 00:04:45,764 Speaker 2: uh point guard unicorn, you could describe them as different 84 00:04:45,764 --> 00:04:49,004 Speaker 2: positions was traded in this deal. It's like totally inexplicable 85 00:04:49,004 --> 00:04:50,764 Speaker 2: because usually you get a really high return, but was 86 00:04:50,764 --> 00:04:53,684 Speaker 2: traded to the La Lakers for Anthony Davis and a 87 00:04:53,684 --> 00:04:56,364 Speaker 2: bunch of crap and a first round draft pick basically, 88 00:04:57,724 --> 00:05:01,964 Speaker 2: and yeah, it's probably the most shocking NBA trade in history. 89 00:05:02,004 --> 00:05:03,964 Speaker 2: If you want to read more about my view on that, 90 00:05:04,084 --> 00:05:09,684 Speaker 2: go to Silver bulletin my newsletter on substack. Tariff's another 91 00:05:09,684 --> 00:05:15,204 Speaker 2: story running about this week. This is a very influx policy. 92 00:05:15,724 --> 00:05:18,924 Speaker 2: Full disclosure. We're taping this on Monday afternoon, East Coast time. 93 00:05:20,364 --> 00:05:24,244 Speaker 2: Terrafts went into effect on China and Mexico over the weekend. However, 94 00:05:24,964 --> 00:05:27,644 Speaker 2: an hour or something ago, Trump suspended for a month 95 00:05:27,684 --> 00:05:31,884 Speaker 2: tariffs on Mexico after Mexico made some concessions, saying they 96 00:05:31,884 --> 00:05:33,484 Speaker 2: would deplay a bunch of troops in the US. 97 00:05:33,404 --> 00:05:35,524 Speaker 1: Border ten thousand troops night. 98 00:05:36,444 --> 00:05:38,164 Speaker 2: We have a lot of leverage. There's a lot of 99 00:05:38,284 --> 00:05:42,284 Speaker 2: game theory involved, both in terms of the domestic political 100 00:05:42,284 --> 00:05:45,084 Speaker 2: reaction to the terriffs and in terms of these other countries. 101 00:05:45,124 --> 00:05:47,124 Speaker 2: I mean, we have I was just looking at this, right, 102 00:05:47,524 --> 00:05:50,244 Speaker 2: do you know that US exports are twenty six point 103 00:05:50,324 --> 00:05:52,764 Speaker 2: four percent of Mexico's GDP. 104 00:05:53,124 --> 00:05:55,084 Speaker 1: I had no idea that is a high percentage. 105 00:05:55,204 --> 00:05:57,644 Speaker 2: Our exports to Mexico are one point two percent, right, 106 00:05:57,684 --> 00:06:00,124 Speaker 2: so they can retaliate. We're like, fuck you, Mexico. But 107 00:06:00,364 --> 00:06:04,844 Speaker 2: you know the fact that we're levering these allies is 108 00:06:04,964 --> 00:06:08,804 Speaker 2: just kind of gross in some ways. But anyway, there's 109 00:06:08,804 --> 00:06:10,284 Speaker 2: a lot to talk and I'm sure that'll be a 110 00:06:10,324 --> 00:06:12,324 Speaker 2: theme that will hit on going forward the next couple 111 00:06:12,404 --> 00:06:12,844 Speaker 2: of weeks. 112 00:06:13,124 --> 00:06:14,764 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I think it's going to be a really 113 00:06:14,764 --> 00:06:18,524 Speaker 1: important topic. There are also there are a number of 114 00:06:18,604 --> 00:06:22,244 Speaker 1: other interesting and concerning policies that have come out in 115 00:06:22,284 --> 00:06:24,564 Speaker 1: the last week. I don't know if we want to 116 00:06:24,564 --> 00:06:28,244 Speaker 1: get into all of them. Giving Elon Musk's access to 117 00:06:28,324 --> 00:06:32,524 Speaker 1: treasury payment systems is something that I think is you know, 118 00:06:32,924 --> 00:06:36,204 Speaker 1: it is notable, but has kind of gone under the radar. 119 00:06:36,284 --> 00:06:39,124 Speaker 1: What's going to happen to us for an aid? All 120 00:06:39,204 --> 00:06:41,764 Speaker 1: of these things are I think topics that we might 121 00:06:41,804 --> 00:06:44,164 Speaker 1: talk about in the future, but as of now, I 122 00:06:44,204 --> 00:06:46,924 Speaker 1: think it actually doesn't make sense to talk about them 123 00:06:47,004 --> 00:06:49,524 Speaker 1: because it's too much speculation. We don't know what's actually 124 00:06:49,524 --> 00:06:51,164 Speaker 1: going to happen, we don't know how it's going to 125 00:06:51,204 --> 00:06:55,404 Speaker 1: be enacted, and we don't know how much is Bark versus. 126 00:06:55,404 --> 00:06:58,284 Speaker 1: But I think that that's kind of the bottom line 127 00:06:58,284 --> 00:06:58,804 Speaker 1: on a lot of this. 128 00:06:59,124 --> 00:07:02,644 Speaker 2: And look, there's also so one thing that like I 129 00:07:02,684 --> 00:07:05,804 Speaker 2: think poker teaches you, but also life stress. We both 130 00:07:05,844 --> 00:07:07,844 Speaker 2: have lots of interesting life experience at this point, right, 131 00:07:07,964 --> 00:07:10,804 Speaker 2: is like can you do with multiple things going on 132 00:07:10,884 --> 00:07:15,884 Speaker 2: at once and prioritize? And it seems like Democrats are 133 00:07:16,004 --> 00:07:20,444 Speaker 2: not good at that. I think both kind of constitutionally 134 00:07:21,444 --> 00:07:24,084 Speaker 2: that's a whole theory about like different personality traits, but 135 00:07:24,124 --> 00:07:27,164 Speaker 2: also just like people aren't used to having like all 136 00:07:27,164 --> 00:07:31,724 Speaker 2: these different stories at once, and prioritizing is essential and like, 137 00:07:32,444 --> 00:07:33,844 Speaker 2: but people don't do it right. They tend to like 138 00:07:33,884 --> 00:07:35,484 Speaker 2: focus on Like, so there's all this focus on the 139 00:07:35,524 --> 00:07:38,644 Speaker 2: first week. Maybe the biggest story until the tariff stuff 140 00:07:38,644 --> 00:07:41,884 Speaker 2: and I'm playing crash was Elon Musk's salute. We talked 141 00:07:41,924 --> 00:07:45,484 Speaker 2: about that in me a little bit last week, and 142 00:07:45,564 --> 00:07:49,324 Speaker 2: like this is not the most important. We're trying to 143 00:07:49,444 --> 00:07:52,044 Speaker 2: leverage our friends north and south of the border and 144 00:07:52,124 --> 00:07:57,564 Speaker 2: Elon controls of Treasury Department payout system and like AI stuff. 145 00:07:57,564 --> 00:08:00,124 Speaker 2: I mean, all this stuff is like quite a lot 146 00:08:00,164 --> 00:08:00,924 Speaker 2: more important. 147 00:08:01,444 --> 00:08:06,484 Speaker 1: I wrote about multitasking briefly on my substack this past 148 00:08:06,524 --> 00:08:09,284 Speaker 1: week because I think that it's so important to remember 149 00:08:09,444 --> 00:08:12,284 Speaker 1: how our brain works, right, and how attention works, because 150 00:08:12,484 --> 00:08:14,204 Speaker 1: it's really playing in And we talked about this a 151 00:08:14,204 --> 00:08:18,324 Speaker 1: little bit. To Trump's strategy right overwhelm overwhelm. Overwhelm because 152 00:08:18,404 --> 00:08:20,844 Speaker 1: our brain is like ooh yay, like I get to 153 00:08:21,244 --> 00:08:23,444 Speaker 1: do all of these different things. It's really hard to focus, 154 00:08:23,764 --> 00:08:26,284 Speaker 1: and it's really hard to kind of figure out what's 155 00:08:26,324 --> 00:08:28,084 Speaker 1: best on. Our brain is not good at that, right, 156 00:08:28,084 --> 00:08:30,324 Speaker 1: Like our brain wants to be all over the place, 157 00:08:31,044 --> 00:08:34,684 Speaker 1: and so this just plays into kind of the worst 158 00:08:34,724 --> 00:08:37,804 Speaker 1: vulnerabilities in our thinking. That's why what I said last week, 159 00:08:37,804 --> 00:08:41,364 Speaker 1: I think is still the message, which is focus, right, like, figure, 160 00:08:41,684 --> 00:08:45,444 Speaker 1: reclaim your attention, focus on what's important, prioritize you need, 161 00:08:45,764 --> 00:08:47,964 Speaker 1: you need to kind of see, okay, what are our priorities, 162 00:08:48,004 --> 00:08:50,484 Speaker 1: what's the coherent message here? And knowing that that, by 163 00:08:50,484 --> 00:08:52,484 Speaker 1: the way, is not like a Democrat or Republican, that's 164 00:08:52,524 --> 00:08:55,284 Speaker 1: just like a human failing. Right. Our brains are really 165 00:08:55,284 --> 00:08:57,564 Speaker 1: really bad at that, right, and Trump is really really 166 00:08:57,604 --> 00:09:00,084 Speaker 1: good at taking advantage of it. It's like, you know, 167 00:09:00,364 --> 00:09:02,724 Speaker 1: like social media, right. Social media is designed to take 168 00:09:02,764 --> 00:09:06,484 Speaker 1: advantage of that brain's inability to focus and the desire 169 00:09:06,524 --> 00:09:08,604 Speaker 1: to have all of these different things happening at once. 170 00:09:08,884 --> 00:09:12,764 Speaker 1: And Trump, like the human walking social media, he's so 171 00:09:12,804 --> 00:09:14,844 Speaker 1: good as just throwing all this shit out there, seeing 172 00:09:14,844 --> 00:09:15,404 Speaker 1: what sticks. 173 00:09:15,564 --> 00:09:18,924 Speaker 2: Trump and social media and the regular media too, right, 174 00:09:19,124 --> 00:09:22,524 Speaker 2: But algorithmically and editorially people are very aware of like 175 00:09:22,644 --> 00:09:25,124 Speaker 2: what things make headlines, and kind of plane crashes are 176 00:09:25,124 --> 00:09:30,044 Speaker 2: in a classic category where I mean it used to 177 00:09:30,124 --> 00:09:32,804 Speaker 2: be I used to think when a plane crash in 178 00:09:32,804 --> 00:09:36,724 Speaker 2: the US, this was like almost a hurricane type story 179 00:09:36,764 --> 00:09:38,924 Speaker 2: for days. And you know, one reason why that's not 180 00:09:38,964 --> 00:09:42,644 Speaker 2: as much anymore because there are far fewer plane crashes. 181 00:09:42,764 --> 00:09:46,604 Speaker 2: Flying on airplanes on commercial airlines in the US is 182 00:09:46,644 --> 00:09:50,964 Speaker 2: incredibly safe. But you know, but when there are crashes, 183 00:09:51,044 --> 00:09:54,324 Speaker 2: then then they freak people out, and that changes the 184 00:09:54,324 --> 00:09:56,764 Speaker 2: incentives toward more and more safety. 185 00:09:57,164 --> 00:10:00,924 Speaker 1: Yeah, so let's talk about that. Obviously, last week was 186 00:10:00,964 --> 00:10:04,564 Speaker 1: the first major aviation disaster since two thousand and nine, 187 00:10:04,964 --> 00:10:06,884 Speaker 1: so it's been a one, it's been a minute, right, 188 00:10:07,644 --> 00:10:11,204 Speaker 1: which goes to your point that general plane travel is 189 00:10:11,284 --> 00:10:16,364 Speaker 1: incredibly safe, even though our risk perception gets overblown because 190 00:10:16,524 --> 00:10:19,244 Speaker 1: we do have an outsize focus on events like this, 191 00:10:19,604 --> 00:10:21,524 Speaker 1: as we should by the way, you know, I think, 192 00:10:21,564 --> 00:10:25,124 Speaker 1: I think that it's actually important to hold kind of 193 00:10:25,164 --> 00:10:29,084 Speaker 1: these these sorts of institutions to account in the sense 194 00:10:29,164 --> 00:10:32,204 Speaker 1: that one of the one of the things that has 195 00:10:32,204 --> 00:10:34,884 Speaker 1: come out of this is that oh, Hey, there were 196 00:10:34,924 --> 00:10:37,764 Speaker 1: a lot of safety concerns that have been ignored, a 197 00:10:37,764 --> 00:10:40,564 Speaker 1: lot of safety recommendations that have been ignored for years, 198 00:10:40,724 --> 00:10:44,084 Speaker 1: specifically with the DC air space. There were recommendations that 199 00:10:44,124 --> 00:10:46,804 Speaker 1: the DC air space was already overstressed, and yet more 200 00:10:46,844 --> 00:10:49,284 Speaker 1: and more flights kept getting added, you know, et cetera, 201 00:10:49,324 --> 00:10:53,404 Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, and people ignored them because nothing 202 00:10:53,484 --> 00:10:56,844 Speaker 1: had happened since two thousand and nine. So there's some 203 00:10:56,964 --> 00:11:02,164 Speaker 1: really interesting statistics that near misses have gone up, actually 204 00:11:02,244 --> 00:11:05,724 Speaker 1: a huge amount, and near misses is accidents that almost 205 00:11:05,764 --> 00:11:11,604 Speaker 1: happen but not quite so since from a decade ago, 206 00:11:11,684 --> 00:11:14,724 Speaker 1: we have a twenty five percent increase in runway incursions. 207 00:11:14,724 --> 00:11:18,524 Speaker 1: So that's near misses just on the runway, which is 208 00:11:18,524 --> 00:11:21,404 Speaker 1: a lot, right, not not that high in terms of 209 00:11:21,404 --> 00:11:27,564 Speaker 1: absolute numbers, but in relative terms, something that's a little 210 00:11:27,564 --> 00:11:31,244 Speaker 1: bit worrisome. And we have near misses mid air, not 211 00:11:31,444 --> 00:11:34,484 Speaker 1: just on the runway, you know, takeoffs, landing, all all 212 00:11:34,484 --> 00:11:38,564 Speaker 1: sorts of things like that. But because everything tends to 213 00:11:38,644 --> 00:11:42,324 Speaker 1: work out okay, people are just like, eh, it's totally fine. 214 00:11:42,444 --> 00:11:45,604 Speaker 1: So this is a big logical fallacy that people commit 215 00:11:45,684 --> 00:11:48,964 Speaker 1: all the time, and it's called the near miss fallacy. 216 00:11:49,044 --> 00:11:52,044 Speaker 1: So it's almost leads to something that we talk about 217 00:11:52,044 --> 00:11:54,484 Speaker 1: often on the show over Confidence, right that like, oh, 218 00:11:54,524 --> 00:11:56,844 Speaker 1: it'll all work out. This means the system's working like 219 00:11:56,924 --> 00:11:59,884 Speaker 1: it's all good. No, it means that the system is 220 00:11:59,924 --> 00:12:03,084 Speaker 1: barely holding on and you've gotten you know, how many 221 00:12:03,084 --> 00:12:05,884 Speaker 1: times did it work versus you got lucky? And that's 222 00:12:05,924 --> 00:12:09,644 Speaker 1: such a difficult thing to track, and both you and 223 00:12:09,684 --> 00:12:12,284 Speaker 1: I know that you know, being outcome oriented is not 224 00:12:12,364 --> 00:12:13,764 Speaker 1: the way to do it. You need to make sure 225 00:12:13,804 --> 00:12:15,284 Speaker 1: that your process is intact. 226 00:12:15,684 --> 00:12:17,404 Speaker 2: No, And in fact, if you're doing some type of 227 00:12:17,444 --> 00:12:21,964 Speaker 2: like statistical modeling, then near misses give you data and 228 00:12:22,004 --> 00:12:24,364 Speaker 2: tend to actually increase the incidence of the thing that 229 00:12:24,404 --> 00:12:29,084 Speaker 2: you fear going forward. Right, if if we intercept a 230 00:12:29,644 --> 00:12:32,364 Speaker 2: you know, attempt, a terrorist attack on the Brooklyn Bridge 231 00:12:32,884 --> 00:12:35,524 Speaker 2: or something, right, that's not good news. Assuming the attack 232 00:12:35,564 --> 00:12:38,804 Speaker 2: got like reasonably far along in the planning stage, that 233 00:12:38,844 --> 00:12:42,004 Speaker 2: means that like the incidence of terrorism is maybe higher 234 00:12:42,044 --> 00:12:46,964 Speaker 2: than we would have thought, right, because usually you know, 235 00:12:47,444 --> 00:12:49,244 Speaker 2: when you look back at something like nine to eleven, 236 00:12:49,284 --> 00:12:51,324 Speaker 2: you're like, how many different things had to go wrong 237 00:12:51,444 --> 00:12:53,764 Speaker 2: or right? And how many signals do we have to 238 00:12:53,844 --> 00:12:55,644 Speaker 2: miss right, And it is true that to pull off 239 00:12:55,684 --> 00:12:57,884 Speaker 2: like a complicated attack or any type of disaster where 240 00:12:57,884 --> 00:13:02,404 Speaker 2: there are multiple redundant systems in place, like you know, two, three, four, 241 00:13:02,484 --> 00:13:05,164 Speaker 2: things have to go wrong. But still if you say, 242 00:13:05,284 --> 00:13:07,404 Speaker 2: if you say, oh, three things went wrong, but we 243 00:13:07,444 --> 00:13:09,764 Speaker 2: got lucky in the fourth thing and it saved us. Right. 244 00:13:10,164 --> 00:13:14,884 Speaker 2: To take a more recent example, the fact that President Trump, 245 00:13:15,044 --> 00:13:22,924 Speaker 2: than its cannony Trump was nearly assassinated, really bad news, right, yeah, 246 00:13:23,404 --> 00:13:25,004 Speaker 2: really bad news in terms of like the rise of 247 00:13:25,044 --> 00:13:26,324 Speaker 2: political violence in the US. 248 00:13:26,484 --> 00:13:29,284 Speaker 1: Yeah. No, the takeaway from that isn't great, but he 249 00:13:29,444 --> 00:13:33,284 Speaker 1: wasn't assassinated. Sources to worked correctly, the takeaway is, oh shit, 250 00:13:33,524 --> 00:13:37,044 Speaker 1: you know what happened to make that even possible? And 251 00:13:37,124 --> 00:13:40,244 Speaker 1: so but the you know, but oftentimes we do the 252 00:13:40,284 --> 00:13:42,644 Speaker 1: exact opposite, right, and people are like, oh, we don't 253 00:13:42,684 --> 00:13:46,044 Speaker 1: need to implement these recommendations. We don't need to you know, 254 00:13:46,084 --> 00:13:48,084 Speaker 1: spend more money on this, We don't need to really 255 00:13:48,524 --> 00:13:50,884 Speaker 1: relieve this airspace or whatever it is, because it's all 256 00:13:50,924 --> 00:13:53,564 Speaker 1: been working out, no crashes since two thousand and nine. 257 00:13:53,964 --> 00:13:57,764 Speaker 1: So this is you know, what happened was absolutely horrible, 258 00:13:57,924 --> 00:14:04,124 Speaker 1: and it seems like absolutely preventable, and that overconfidence and 259 00:14:04,644 --> 00:14:08,124 Speaker 1: kind of a lack of accountability on some in some 260 00:14:08,204 --> 00:14:11,804 Speaker 1: respects is one of the reasons that we're having this 261 00:14:11,884 --> 00:14:15,724 Speaker 1: conversation now. So if there is a silver lining, I 262 00:14:15,724 --> 00:14:18,524 Speaker 1: hope that it is that, you know, people actually start 263 00:14:18,524 --> 00:14:20,804 Speaker 1: looking at the process and realizing that the number of 264 00:14:20,884 --> 00:14:24,524 Speaker 1: near misses that we have both mid air, on the ground, takeoffs, 265 00:14:24,604 --> 00:14:28,044 Speaker 1: landings are actually important. And as you say, like if 266 00:14:28,124 --> 00:14:31,404 Speaker 1: you were building a statistical model, all of these things 267 00:14:31,884 --> 00:14:34,964 Speaker 1: change your probability, and not for the better, right, your 268 00:14:35,044 --> 00:14:38,924 Speaker 1: priority probabilities have to be adjusted, not in a good direction. 269 00:14:40,084 --> 00:14:42,284 Speaker 1: And so I hope that this is a wake up call. 270 00:14:42,644 --> 00:14:43,924 Speaker 1: Do you think it will be? I don't know. 271 00:14:44,124 --> 00:14:47,044 Speaker 2: Okay, now I'm gonna see the controversial thing, right, I 272 00:14:47,084 --> 00:14:54,084 Speaker 2: am not sure that it's rational to put more resources 273 00:14:54,084 --> 00:14:59,964 Speaker 2: into aviation safety. Right, defined as follows right. So, the 274 00:15:00,004 --> 00:15:03,724 Speaker 2: statistical value of a life is a concept we've talked 275 00:15:03,724 --> 00:15:06,324 Speaker 2: about before on this show. Yeah, and that is how 276 00:15:06,404 --> 00:15:08,484 Speaker 2: much are people willing to pay. It's not based on 277 00:15:08,484 --> 00:15:10,404 Speaker 2: some bureaucrats in a back office. It's how much people 278 00:15:10,404 --> 00:15:14,564 Speaker 2: willing to pay to ensure their risk of surviving or 279 00:15:14,604 --> 00:15:19,044 Speaker 2: extend their life. Right, and comes out to about ten 280 00:15:19,084 --> 00:15:23,084 Speaker 2: million dollars. That if people could gamble and say I'll 281 00:15:23,084 --> 00:15:24,524 Speaker 2: give you ten million dollars and you have a one 282 00:15:24,604 --> 00:15:27,164 Speaker 2: n x chance of dying, right, I mean, you know, 283 00:15:27,204 --> 00:15:29,404 Speaker 2: there's some nonlinearities, but it comes from like things like 284 00:15:31,324 --> 00:15:34,164 Speaker 2: people being willing to do dangerous tasks, are being willing 285 00:15:34,204 --> 00:15:41,084 Speaker 2: to have medical inventions or buy safety features, right, and 286 00:15:41,164 --> 00:15:43,724 Speaker 2: across all different ways this is measured, it's pretty consistently 287 00:15:43,764 --> 00:15:47,684 Speaker 2: about ten million. For aviation safety. It's much higher than that. 288 00:15:47,724 --> 00:15:54,004 Speaker 2: People fear. People fear hijackings, and they fear plane crashes. 289 00:15:54,044 --> 00:15:56,644 Speaker 2: It would be an obviously terrible way to die, but 290 00:15:56,844 --> 00:15:58,484 Speaker 2: like you know, not every time that, I mean, the 291 00:15:59,244 --> 00:16:01,444 Speaker 2: failure rate should not be zero. 292 00:16:01,684 --> 00:16:01,804 Speaker 1: Right. 293 00:16:01,804 --> 00:16:03,564 Speaker 2: To take a much less serious example, you hear the 294 00:16:03,604 --> 00:16:05,764 Speaker 2: phrase like if you've never missed a flight, you're not 295 00:16:05,764 --> 00:16:07,924 Speaker 2: doing it right, meaning that like, if you're flying from 296 00:16:08,604 --> 00:16:11,564 Speaker 2: New York to Chicago, go there are you know, fifteen 297 00:16:11,564 --> 00:16:16,004 Speaker 2: flights an hour an hour? But a lot, right, not 298 00:16:16,004 --> 00:16:19,084 Speaker 2: that much consequence to missing your flight. Obviously, any crash 299 00:16:19,204 --> 00:16:21,884 Speaker 2: involving what are we up to, like seventy deaths roughly 300 00:16:23,884 --> 00:16:27,404 Speaker 2: is more serious. But at the same time, like you know, 301 00:16:27,684 --> 00:16:31,084 Speaker 2: bad shit's supposed to happen some of the time because 302 00:16:31,084 --> 00:16:34,844 Speaker 2: the alternative is that you are paying gigantic amounts for 303 00:16:36,564 --> 00:16:38,964 Speaker 2: safety features. And I mean you see this, right, You see, 304 00:16:39,044 --> 00:16:42,924 Speaker 2: like in construction of the New York Subway, for example, 305 00:16:43,004 --> 00:16:46,724 Speaker 2: there are so many commitments to different groups and to 306 00:16:46,764 --> 00:16:49,204 Speaker 2: safety equipments and a special interest that it just is 307 00:16:49,244 --> 00:16:55,484 Speaker 2: incredibly expensive to do anything. So you know, this is 308 00:16:55,564 --> 00:16:58,844 Speaker 2: kind of more high level bravarian thinking to you, but 309 00:16:58,924 --> 00:17:01,684 Speaker 2: like being willing to think about in terms of trade, uster, 310 00:17:01,804 --> 00:17:07,964 Speaker 2: what is the price of reducing air traffic fatalities, right, 311 00:17:08,404 --> 00:17:11,004 Speaker 2: compared to what we might spend on other things like 312 00:17:11,724 --> 00:17:16,844 Speaker 2: road safety or medical safety or other things. Right. And 313 00:17:16,844 --> 00:17:19,844 Speaker 2: the fact is that humans are pretty inconsistent, yeah, about 314 00:17:19,964 --> 00:17:22,244 Speaker 2: kind of what they're willing to what risks they're willing 315 00:17:22,244 --> 00:17:23,164 Speaker 2: to take action to prevent. 316 00:17:23,404 --> 00:17:25,284 Speaker 1: I think that that is a very valid point that 317 00:17:25,764 --> 00:17:29,484 Speaker 1: we are inconsistent. However, I will kind of push back 318 00:17:29,524 --> 00:17:34,044 Speaker 1: a little bit, not in terms of like overall spending, right, 319 00:17:34,084 --> 00:17:37,124 Speaker 1: But what I'm talking about is how we respond to 320 00:17:37,964 --> 00:17:41,684 Speaker 1: two different risks and what the takeaway is from near missus. Right. 321 00:17:42,124 --> 00:17:45,404 Speaker 1: You could reallocate spending, you could not make stupid decisions 322 00:17:45,444 --> 00:17:48,924 Speaker 1: like adding over sixty flights to an airspace that you've 323 00:17:49,004 --> 00:17:52,364 Speaker 1: already been warned is overcrowded. This doesn't have to do 324 00:17:52,444 --> 00:17:56,284 Speaker 1: with pouring more money into it. This is just risk management, 325 00:17:56,324 --> 00:17:59,964 Speaker 1: making different decisions, making different process decisions, holding yourself to 326 00:18:00,244 --> 00:18:03,964 Speaker 1: different accountability, maybe reallocating some of the funds you already 327 00:18:04,004 --> 00:18:08,764 Speaker 1: have to kind of two different things, looking at training, 328 00:18:08,884 --> 00:18:11,404 Speaker 1: like looking and looking at models from the bottom up, 329 00:18:12,164 --> 00:18:15,444 Speaker 1: and reassessing a lot of kind of the decision making 330 00:18:15,484 --> 00:18:19,244 Speaker 1: along the way, as opposed to complacently saying, oh, everything's 331 00:18:19,284 --> 00:18:22,204 Speaker 1: fine or I think it's actually the lazy thing is 332 00:18:22,244 --> 00:18:24,924 Speaker 1: just to throw money at it, right, because why throw 333 00:18:25,004 --> 00:18:27,404 Speaker 1: money if you don't even know you know, first you 334 00:18:27,444 --> 00:18:30,684 Speaker 1: need to figure out what are we fixing, what's going wrong? 335 00:18:31,044 --> 00:18:33,404 Speaker 1: What's going wrong in the human decision making and the 336 00:18:33,444 --> 00:18:36,284 Speaker 1: non human decision making? Right, like a where are the 337 00:18:36,324 --> 00:18:39,284 Speaker 1: systems most vulnerable? And if we don't do that, I 338 00:18:39,284 --> 00:18:42,244 Speaker 1: don't care if we allocate billions of dollars to the problem, 339 00:18:42,404 --> 00:18:44,844 Speaker 1: it's not going to help, right. That's what happens with 340 00:18:46,004 --> 00:18:49,964 Speaker 1: bad financial decision making, where you just think, oh, you know, 341 00:18:50,404 --> 00:18:52,444 Speaker 1: pouring money out the problem is going to help. So 342 00:18:52,804 --> 00:18:54,404 Speaker 1: I think that that's kind of the way of thinking 343 00:18:54,484 --> 00:18:57,524 Speaker 1: about it, not just like, oh, you know, like let's 344 00:18:57,884 --> 00:19:00,284 Speaker 1: either allocate more money or not. I think that a 345 00:19:00,284 --> 00:19:03,404 Speaker 1: lot of people made bad decisions along the way. And 346 00:19:03,684 --> 00:19:08,164 Speaker 1: this was also differences in priorities, right because people say, oh, well, 347 00:19:08,164 --> 00:19:11,244 Speaker 1: you know, Senator X, Senator why, and Senator Z all 348 00:19:11,284 --> 00:19:13,804 Speaker 1: need direct flights home, and so we're going to add 349 00:19:13,844 --> 00:19:17,644 Speaker 1: those roots to you know, for that specific reason. That's 350 00:19:17,684 --> 00:19:19,964 Speaker 1: really bad. Right now, what are you saying about the 351 00:19:20,004 --> 00:19:23,004 Speaker 1: value of human life? Right You're saying that this person's 352 00:19:24,044 --> 00:19:28,444 Speaker 1: preference on when he gets home is much more important 353 00:19:28,484 --> 00:19:32,764 Speaker 1: than the safety of all of the people who are 354 00:19:32,804 --> 00:19:36,244 Speaker 1: flying through this airspace. Right, So there have been some 355 00:19:36,444 --> 00:19:41,364 Speaker 1: questionable decision making results along the way, and I think 356 00:19:41,364 --> 00:19:43,284 Speaker 1: those are the types of things we should be looking at. 357 00:19:43,364 --> 00:19:45,724 Speaker 1: But I think your other point is very well taken 358 00:19:46,124 --> 00:19:48,324 Speaker 1: and something that you know, we do talk about on 359 00:19:48,364 --> 00:19:51,364 Speaker 1: the show. But I think it's just something that's really 360 00:19:51,924 --> 00:19:55,164 Speaker 1: worth stressing over and over because even though I know it, 361 00:19:55,244 --> 00:19:58,844 Speaker 1: I still fall for it. Right when we do inconsistently 362 00:19:58,964 --> 00:20:01,604 Speaker 1: take these risk assessments where we do, you know, we 363 00:20:01,724 --> 00:20:04,404 Speaker 1: are too scared of a plane crash too, scared of 364 00:20:04,404 --> 00:20:07,644 Speaker 1: a hijacking, not scared enough of, you know, crossing the 365 00:20:07,684 --> 00:20:11,844 Speaker 1: street where our chance of dying is actually much higher, 366 00:20:12,404 --> 00:20:14,964 Speaker 1: right and being hit by a car, having something horrible happen. 367 00:20:16,004 --> 00:20:20,444 Speaker 1: You know, we do have very inconsistent risk preferences, and 368 00:20:20,484 --> 00:20:23,124 Speaker 1: that's something that you know, we should just constantly remind 369 00:20:23,164 --> 00:20:26,444 Speaker 1: ourselves of, constantly remind our listeners of, and constantly remind 370 00:20:26,444 --> 00:20:29,564 Speaker 1: our brains of, so that we try to behave more rationally, 371 00:20:29,564 --> 00:20:31,484 Speaker 1: even though at the end of the day, emotion always 372 00:20:31,484 --> 00:20:34,324 Speaker 1: gets into it. It's really difficult not to have emotion 373 00:20:34,444 --> 00:20:37,364 Speaker 1: in your decisions when it comes to you and immediate 374 00:20:37,364 --> 00:20:41,364 Speaker 1: decision making as opposed to having kind of the time 375 00:20:41,444 --> 00:20:46,804 Speaker 1: and space and leisure to think through it in a 376 00:20:46,844 --> 00:20:47,644 Speaker 1: more rational way. 377 00:20:47,844 --> 00:20:49,964 Speaker 2: I remember I was in Costa Rica a couple of 378 00:20:50,004 --> 00:20:52,284 Speaker 2: years ago with some friends and we were like staying 379 00:20:52,364 --> 00:20:56,324 Speaker 2: at this airbnb on a hill and the coaster is 380 00:20:56,524 --> 00:21:02,684 Speaker 2: very very wet, right, with like torrential thunderstorms like a lot, right, 381 00:21:02,764 --> 00:21:06,044 Speaker 2: maybe every day, but yeah, we're like driving down this 382 00:21:06,204 --> 00:21:11,044 Speaker 2: like dirt road in a thunderstorm in a country we've 383 00:21:11,044 --> 00:21:15,244 Speaker 2: never been in before. Like, probably not the best idea, 384 00:21:15,284 --> 00:21:17,484 Speaker 2: even though like they have incredible drainage systems, right, they're 385 00:21:17,524 --> 00:21:21,044 Speaker 2: used to this problem. But sometimes you gotta be like 386 00:21:21,044 --> 00:21:22,524 Speaker 2: fuck it, you know what I mean. I mean, if 387 00:21:22,564 --> 00:21:25,204 Speaker 2: you never take there's like a portfolio of like you 388 00:21:25,204 --> 00:21:28,284 Speaker 2: should get like one fuck it card a year. I 389 00:21:28,324 --> 00:21:31,684 Speaker 2: feel like, maybe, yeah, we could, we could talk about 390 00:21:31,684 --> 00:21:34,964 Speaker 2: this stuff every week. Let's go on and talk about booze. 391 00:21:35,084 --> 00:21:38,724 Speaker 1: Right, yeah, let's let's uh, let's talk about some alcohol warnings. 392 00:21:38,764 --> 00:21:56,044 Speaker 1: After this break, we have had some news coming out 393 00:21:56,044 --> 00:21:58,324 Speaker 1: on the alcohol front. I don't know if it was 394 00:21:58,404 --> 00:22:01,764 Speaker 1: time to coincide with dry January when lots of people 395 00:22:02,204 --> 00:22:05,404 Speaker 1: decide to, you know, abstain from drinking, but that's that's 396 00:22:05,444 --> 00:22:10,124 Speaker 1: when it came out. So the Surgeon General earlier had 397 00:22:10,164 --> 00:22:14,524 Speaker 1: issue to report on the potential cancer risks associated with 398 00:22:15,004 --> 00:22:20,684 Speaker 1: drinking any alcohol whatsoever. And so are you know, there 399 00:22:20,764 --> 00:22:23,084 Speaker 1: are now talks of putting morning labels like you have 400 00:22:23,164 --> 00:22:26,964 Speaker 1: on cigarettes right on all alcohol saying, you know, sculling 401 00:22:27,004 --> 00:22:30,844 Speaker 1: cross bones, you're going to die basically if you drink this, 402 00:22:30,884 --> 00:22:33,804 Speaker 1: and a lot of people, a lot of wellness gurus, 403 00:22:33,844 --> 00:22:37,044 Speaker 1: health influencers have been saying, yes, this is exactly right, 404 00:22:37,244 --> 00:22:41,164 Speaker 1: zero drinking, you know, no amount of alcohol is healthy. 405 00:22:41,924 --> 00:22:44,844 Speaker 1: This is the way to go. And man, oh man, 406 00:22:44,924 --> 00:22:47,004 Speaker 1: like I have, I have so many thoughts on this, 407 00:22:47,364 --> 00:22:49,524 Speaker 1: Like this is like the most little for. 408 00:22:49,484 --> 00:22:52,364 Speaker 2: You, because I kind of I saw this news. Uh huh, 409 00:22:52,524 --> 00:22:54,524 Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, that sucks. You know, it's nice to 410 00:22:54,564 --> 00:22:56,644 Speaker 2: have some beer and wine now and then, right. I mean, 411 00:22:57,124 --> 00:22:59,324 Speaker 2: but I didn't really want to process it because I 412 00:22:59,364 --> 00:23:01,444 Speaker 2: didn't either like want to give myself like an excuse 413 00:23:01,444 --> 00:23:04,324 Speaker 2: if I thought it was bullshit, or like didn't want to Facebook. 414 00:23:04,324 --> 00:23:06,484 Speaker 2: I'm going to let you drive this segment because I 415 00:23:06,484 --> 00:23:07,884 Speaker 2: know you've been researching us a lot. 416 00:23:08,204 --> 00:23:11,444 Speaker 1: Yeah. So, so first of all, let's just start off 417 00:23:11,484 --> 00:23:15,724 Speaker 1: with the fact that all studies of alcohol and health 418 00:23:16,204 --> 00:23:20,964 Speaker 1: are correlational, right, And the fact that they're all correlational 419 00:23:21,484 --> 00:23:25,604 Speaker 1: not causational, that they're observational studies in the environment makes 420 00:23:25,764 --> 00:23:29,804 Speaker 1: all nutritional studies, like not just alcohol, incredibly difficult to 421 00:23:29,844 --> 00:23:34,004 Speaker 1: do and conclusions very suspect depending on how you parse data. 422 00:23:34,004 --> 00:23:36,644 Speaker 1: There are so many other variables because it's not like 423 00:23:37,084 --> 00:23:39,844 Speaker 1: you take people from birth right and you say, okay, 424 00:23:39,844 --> 00:23:42,844 Speaker 1: when this person turns twenty one, we are going to 425 00:23:42,884 --> 00:23:44,964 Speaker 1: give them. We're going to control everything they eat their 426 00:23:45,124 --> 00:23:47,244 Speaker 1: entire life. We're going to have all these people live 427 00:23:47,324 --> 00:23:50,404 Speaker 1: in our little lab environment, and when this person turns 428 00:23:50,404 --> 00:23:52,644 Speaker 1: twenty one, they're going to start getting a glass of 429 00:23:52,644 --> 00:23:55,324 Speaker 1: wine right a day. And this one's not going to 430 00:23:55,404 --> 00:23:59,284 Speaker 1: drink at all. No, that is you know, maybe there's 431 00:23:59,284 --> 00:24:01,764 Speaker 1: a science fiction novel about that, but that's not the 432 00:24:01,764 --> 00:24:04,324 Speaker 1: way that this all works in the real world. Right, 433 00:24:04,364 --> 00:24:07,124 Speaker 1: So in the real world, what we do in all 434 00:24:07,164 --> 00:24:11,004 Speaker 1: of these cases is ask people, right, and have observational data. 435 00:24:11,404 --> 00:24:14,244 Speaker 1: And there are some studies that have followed people for 436 00:24:14,524 --> 00:24:18,164 Speaker 1: decades and decades, and you look at what their habits are. 437 00:24:18,244 --> 00:24:21,004 Speaker 1: You try to control for stuff as well as you 438 00:24:21,084 --> 00:24:23,604 Speaker 1: possibly can, and then you see what happens to them. Right, 439 00:24:23,804 --> 00:24:26,164 Speaker 1: who's getting sick, how are they getting sick, how long 440 00:24:26,204 --> 00:24:30,924 Speaker 1: are they living, et cetera, et cetera, and lo and behold. 441 00:24:31,164 --> 00:24:35,484 Speaker 1: In past studies when they did that, it turned out 442 00:24:35,564 --> 00:24:40,684 Speaker 1: that moderate drinkers actually did better than people who abstained 443 00:24:41,764 --> 00:24:45,284 Speaker 1: from alcohol all together. There was one big study that 444 00:24:45,324 --> 00:24:48,124 Speaker 1: showed that light drinkers, so people who consumed one to 445 00:24:48,164 --> 00:24:51,604 Speaker 1: three drinks per week, had lower rates of cancer and 446 00:24:51,804 --> 00:24:55,044 Speaker 1: death than people who abstained all together. There was a 447 00:24:55,084 --> 00:24:57,604 Speaker 1: study of nearly a million people that were followed for 448 00:24:58,164 --> 00:25:01,164 Speaker 1: over a decade that showed that abstainers had higher rates 449 00:25:01,164 --> 00:25:05,324 Speaker 1: of death chronic disease, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer's disease, chronic lung 450 00:25:05,364 --> 00:25:09,924 Speaker 1: disease than light were moderate drinkers. There are have been 451 00:25:09,924 --> 00:25:12,004 Speaker 1: a study of you know, millions of people that show 452 00:25:12,044 --> 00:25:15,324 Speaker 1: that non drinkers had, you know, had higher rates of 453 00:25:15,364 --> 00:25:18,004 Speaker 1: death than moderate drinkers. But this is all to say 454 00:25:18,044 --> 00:25:20,844 Speaker 1: that that was the prevailing wisdom. Now, all of a sudden, 455 00:25:20,884 --> 00:25:23,244 Speaker 1: you know, we see other data that say, oh no, 456 00:25:23,444 --> 00:25:27,204 Speaker 1: actually cancer rates go up. What the fuck? Right, Like 457 00:25:27,324 --> 00:25:31,284 Speaker 1: this is true of so much nutritional advice, where we 458 00:25:31,444 --> 00:25:34,564 Speaker 1: just get really really bad advice for a long time, 459 00:25:35,324 --> 00:25:40,204 Speaker 1: and then it's upended, and then it's upended again. Cholesterol good, 460 00:25:40,284 --> 00:25:44,964 Speaker 1: cholesterol bad, cholesterol, eggs, right, all sorts of stuff that's 461 00:25:45,004 --> 00:25:47,524 Speaker 1: good for you, that's bad for you. Butter is horrible. 462 00:25:47,524 --> 00:25:50,124 Speaker 1: You should have margarine. No, margarine's going to kill you 463 00:25:50,164 --> 00:25:53,084 Speaker 1: because of the chemicals in it. You should have butter. Right, 464 00:25:53,564 --> 00:25:55,764 Speaker 1: All all of these things just go round and round 465 00:25:55,844 --> 00:25:59,604 Speaker 1: and round. And I hate when people make it into 466 00:25:59,644 --> 00:26:02,044 Speaker 1: a moral crusade, which is by the way exactly what 467 00:26:02,364 --> 00:26:05,484 Speaker 1: is happening right that like, oh this is good and 468 00:26:05,524 --> 00:26:07,844 Speaker 1: this is the way to a long life, and this 469 00:26:08,044 --> 00:26:09,764 Speaker 1: is bad and this is you know, this makes you 470 00:26:09,804 --> 00:26:12,204 Speaker 1: a bad person and you are going to die because 471 00:26:12,244 --> 00:26:14,204 Speaker 1: the other, the other flip side of it is even 472 00:26:14,284 --> 00:26:16,244 Speaker 1: if you know, if I have a drink, if I 473 00:26:16,284 --> 00:26:19,724 Speaker 1: have a glass of wine with dinner, and my risk 474 00:26:20,004 --> 00:26:25,204 Speaker 1: of breast cancer goes up by one percent, right from 475 00:26:25,444 --> 00:26:27,964 Speaker 1: an a you know or whatever it is that I 476 00:26:28,004 --> 00:26:31,564 Speaker 1: just totally made up that number, by the way, Okay, 477 00:26:31,724 --> 00:26:35,884 Speaker 1: you know I'm willing to have that because it you know, 478 00:26:36,284 --> 00:26:38,684 Speaker 1: do I want to live a life where I just 479 00:26:38,964 --> 00:26:42,764 Speaker 1: don't do anything, don't drink, don't eat this, don't do that, 480 00:26:42,964 --> 00:26:45,804 Speaker 1: don't do this, and just spend all day trying to 481 00:26:45,844 --> 00:26:49,444 Speaker 1: live longer. No, right, Like that's that ain't the kind 482 00:26:49,444 --> 00:26:50,284 Speaker 1: of existence I want. 483 00:26:50,364 --> 00:26:54,644 Speaker 2: Who's that Brian Johnson guy who's like drinking his son's plasma. 484 00:26:54,684 --> 00:26:58,084 Speaker 1: Anyway, Yeah, exactly, I'm measuring his son's nightly erections. Yes, 485 00:26:58,164 --> 00:26:59,204 Speaker 1: I don't want to be that guy. 486 00:26:59,364 --> 00:27:01,804 Speaker 2: But this is like, oh my god, this is like 487 00:27:01,844 --> 00:27:04,404 Speaker 2: a little bit of like a Silicon Valley thing now 488 00:27:04,444 --> 00:27:08,644 Speaker 2: where like you know, I'm not sure, it's exactly straight 489 00:27:08,684 --> 00:27:10,764 Speaker 2: edge living as people say, oh yeah, I'm silver, but 490 00:27:10,764 --> 00:27:14,004 Speaker 2: then they'll take different types of drugs from psychedelics to 491 00:27:14,004 --> 00:27:16,484 Speaker 2: whatever else can be included in sobriety, right, I mean, 492 00:27:16,684 --> 00:27:19,604 Speaker 2: you know, it gets very difficult. And I do think 493 00:27:19,644 --> 00:27:22,084 Speaker 2: there is this like I don't know, if you'd call 494 00:27:22,084 --> 00:27:23,564 Speaker 2: it puritanism. 495 00:27:23,084 --> 00:27:24,724 Speaker 1: I would call it puritanism exactly. 496 00:27:24,804 --> 00:27:27,684 Speaker 2: There's kind of like a self improvement culture that you know, 497 00:27:28,684 --> 00:27:30,804 Speaker 2: it's a little ascetic acsc I don't know how you're 498 00:27:30,804 --> 00:27:33,124 Speaker 2: supposed to say that word, but like there's something about that, like, 499 00:27:33,204 --> 00:27:36,604 Speaker 2: you know, even like even like the effective altruism movement 500 00:27:36,644 --> 00:27:39,124 Speaker 2: in Silicon Valley is I don't know. It's also it's 501 00:27:39,124 --> 00:27:42,644 Speaker 2: also kind of like a California thing, where like because 502 00:27:42,644 --> 00:27:45,444 Speaker 2: if you're drinking socially in California, then you have this 503 00:27:45,524 --> 00:27:49,564 Speaker 2: constant problem of like how to get places without drunk driving? Right. 504 00:27:49,644 --> 00:27:51,484 Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, I think that there are two things going on, 505 00:27:51,604 --> 00:27:55,204 Speaker 1: and they do go back to the Silicon Valley in California, 506 00:27:55,204 --> 00:27:58,924 Speaker 1: and in another way, one, I think it is puritanical, 507 00:27:59,004 --> 00:28:01,044 Speaker 1: and I think that there's kind of this like moral 508 00:28:01,124 --> 00:28:03,684 Speaker 1: judgment that comes with it that's like a part of 509 00:28:03,724 --> 00:28:06,044 Speaker 1: American culture and has been for a long time. But 510 00:28:06,084 --> 00:28:10,204 Speaker 1: the other thing is simplifying, oversimplifying, right, this desire for 511 00:28:10,284 --> 00:28:13,604 Speaker 1: like one solution that will make you live longer, where 512 00:28:13,604 --> 00:28:17,844 Speaker 1: you take tons of data that is really complex, really difficult, 513 00:28:17,884 --> 00:28:23,404 Speaker 1: where you can't actually draw conclusions, and you say cold plunge, right, yes, 514 00:28:23,524 --> 00:28:25,404 Speaker 1: cold plunge a day, and all of a sudden, you're 515 00:28:25,404 --> 00:28:27,644 Speaker 1: going to improve your health in your life, and for 516 00:28:27,724 --> 00:28:31,764 Speaker 1: red saunas right, and that you don't actually look to say, oh, 517 00:28:31,804 --> 00:28:33,804 Speaker 1: that study was done on ten people and they were 518 00:28:33,844 --> 00:28:37,044 Speaker 1: all finish and right, and all the confounders and all 519 00:28:37,044 --> 00:28:39,164 Speaker 1: of a sudden, we have all of these things. So 520 00:28:39,444 --> 00:28:42,164 Speaker 1: you see these things that are like these solutions that 521 00:28:42,204 --> 00:28:43,884 Speaker 1: if you just do this one thing, if you do 522 00:28:43,964 --> 00:28:46,124 Speaker 1: this and this, then all of a sudden, you're going 523 00:28:46,124 --> 00:28:49,444 Speaker 1: to hack your you know, hack your health and this 524 00:28:49,564 --> 00:28:54,124 Speaker 1: biohacking will make you live longer, be smarter, and all 525 00:28:54,204 --> 00:28:56,484 Speaker 1: of these things. And so I think that alcohol is 526 00:28:56,564 --> 00:28:58,924 Speaker 1: kind of one of these let's simplify and let's just 527 00:28:59,004 --> 00:29:01,444 Speaker 1: say you know, absolutely no, and it's wrong. This is 528 00:29:01,884 --> 00:29:03,044 Speaker 1: and the best way to think about it. 529 00:29:03,084 --> 00:29:06,204 Speaker 2: You also find that you have people who are concerned 530 00:29:06,204 --> 00:29:08,084 Speaker 2: about harm reduction or if you want to put it 531 00:29:08,084 --> 00:29:11,964 Speaker 2: more in NATO Maria terms, kind of ev maximalization. Right, 532 00:29:11,964 --> 00:29:14,084 Speaker 2: you get some benefits out of drinking. Maybe it's enjoyable, 533 00:29:14,124 --> 00:29:16,444 Speaker 2: maybe it's good for your social life. Not advocating it 534 00:29:16,444 --> 00:29:18,884 Speaker 2: either way, but like you know, people are doing it, 535 00:29:18,924 --> 00:29:21,324 Speaker 2: and there's some costs in terms of health outcomes and 536 00:29:21,324 --> 00:29:23,964 Speaker 2: other risks, right, and like you know, how can you 537 00:29:24,004 --> 00:29:26,284 Speaker 2: reduce the more harmful ways to use this product? I 538 00:29:26,324 --> 00:29:29,244 Speaker 2: mean this comes up a lot, right with nicotine. I'm 539 00:29:29,244 --> 00:29:30,764 Speaker 2: not to date with this literature, but like there are 540 00:29:30,764 --> 00:29:34,844 Speaker 2: all these alternatives to cigarettes, zin and vapes and everything 541 00:29:34,884 --> 00:29:39,484 Speaker 2: else come and you know, sometimes they're advocators, oh there 542 00:29:39,524 --> 00:29:41,724 Speaker 2: are safe products, right, because they don't evolve the tar 543 00:29:42,004 --> 00:29:43,884 Speaker 2: of cigarettes. Sometimes they're wrapped up and say there's just 544 00:29:43,884 --> 00:29:45,844 Speaker 2: another gateway drug. I don't know what the liture on 545 00:29:45,884 --> 00:29:47,804 Speaker 2: that is. But like, but you actually have people who 546 00:29:47,804 --> 00:29:49,564 Speaker 2: want to do harm reduction and people who are who 547 00:29:49,564 --> 00:29:51,364 Speaker 2: are prudes. Right, And then you have that when it 548 00:29:51,404 --> 00:29:53,924 Speaker 2: comes to like COVID stuff, you would hear things will 549 00:29:54,004 --> 00:29:57,444 Speaker 2: mass just provide a false sense of security, and the 550 00:29:57,524 --> 00:30:00,124 Speaker 2: alternative often imply was just stay at home and don't 551 00:30:00,124 --> 00:30:02,684 Speaker 2: do anything for a year and a half until vaccines 552 00:30:02,724 --> 00:30:07,164 Speaker 2: are widely available. So that's always that's always tricky, is 553 00:30:07,244 --> 00:30:09,444 Speaker 2: kind of what are people's actual. 554 00:30:09,164 --> 00:30:13,044 Speaker 1: Mone for sure? For sure? And then I will also 555 00:30:13,284 --> 00:30:16,164 Speaker 1: just close this out by saying that you know, the 556 00:30:16,604 --> 00:30:20,004 Speaker 1: proposed let's put these warning labels and like basically say 557 00:30:20,004 --> 00:30:24,164 Speaker 1: that you know, alcohol's terrible and is going to cause cancer. 558 00:30:24,724 --> 00:30:26,964 Speaker 1: First of all, life causes cancer, right if you look 559 00:30:27,004 --> 00:30:30,804 Speaker 1: at the cancer risks, almost anything causes cancer. So like, 560 00:30:30,884 --> 00:30:33,484 Speaker 1: let's just let's just put a warning label on life. 561 00:30:33,524 --> 00:30:35,524 Speaker 1: Life also causes death. You know, it's a it's a 562 00:30:35,564 --> 00:30:38,124 Speaker 1: really it's a really bad thing. But the fact that 563 00:30:38,164 --> 00:30:42,204 Speaker 1: we're embracing marijuana the way that we are and vilifying 564 00:30:42,244 --> 00:30:46,964 Speaker 1: alcohol is just absolutely like mind boggling to me because 565 00:30:47,164 --> 00:30:51,244 Speaker 1: the data yet, yeah, the data on like the harm 566 00:30:51,324 --> 00:30:57,364 Speaker 1: that can come from marijuana consumption, especially now where it's 567 00:30:57,684 --> 00:31:00,004 Speaker 1: much stronger than it used to be, is a ton 568 00:31:00,044 --> 00:31:02,804 Speaker 1: of long term damage that can happen to your memory, 569 00:31:03,564 --> 00:31:06,164 Speaker 1: to kind of reaction time, to all sorts of things. 570 00:31:06,324 --> 00:31:08,564 Speaker 1: We don't talk about that, and we're like, yeah, pot good, 571 00:31:08,644 --> 00:31:11,364 Speaker 1: because you know, for some reason pot is now good 572 00:31:11,644 --> 00:31:12,644 Speaker 1: and alcohol bad. 573 00:31:13,244 --> 00:31:15,804 Speaker 2: People have to be like honest with themselves about what 574 00:31:15,924 --> 00:31:21,164 Speaker 2: things they enjoy more or less. Right, Like, you probably 575 00:31:21,164 --> 00:31:23,484 Speaker 2: have some matrix of like what is the risk of 576 00:31:23,524 --> 00:31:27,284 Speaker 2: something relative to the personal amount of exactly enjoyment that 577 00:31:27,404 --> 00:31:30,724 Speaker 2: it brings you? Right, And you know, sometimes I watch 578 00:31:30,724 --> 00:31:33,644 Speaker 2: it knew more about the risks to a little you know, 579 00:31:33,964 --> 00:31:36,724 Speaker 2: I have some heuristics that so this is really bad 580 00:31:37,244 --> 00:31:40,684 Speaker 2: deep fried foods seem really bad. And then but sometimes 581 00:31:40,724 --> 00:31:42,284 Speaker 2: they don't care. Sometimes you know, it's kind of your 582 00:31:42,724 --> 00:31:44,964 Speaker 2: every now and then you're indulging. But like but like, 583 00:31:45,364 --> 00:31:48,484 Speaker 2: but having you know, really out that matrix would be 584 00:31:48,484 --> 00:31:51,164 Speaker 2: helpful because you get confused, you hear, like sure, mixed 585 00:31:51,204 --> 00:31:53,444 Speaker 2: vesteras a lot. They are different objectives, right, If you're 586 00:31:53,484 --> 00:31:56,484 Speaker 2: trying to lose weight versus trying to reduce cholesterol, those 587 00:31:56,484 --> 00:31:59,244 Speaker 2: are very different diets that you might consume. 588 00:31:59,404 --> 00:31:59,564 Speaker 1: Right. 589 00:31:59,804 --> 00:32:01,244 Speaker 2: I don't think we are going to do like a 590 00:32:01,244 --> 00:32:04,764 Speaker 2: ton of like personal health stuff on the show, but 591 00:32:04,764 --> 00:32:06,364 Speaker 2: we'll promise that when we do, it will not be 592 00:32:06,524 --> 00:32:10,444 Speaker 2: like judge because a wee be like hypocrites and we 593 00:32:10,484 --> 00:32:13,044 Speaker 2: trust people to make their own decisions. But like, you know, yeah, 594 00:32:13,244 --> 00:32:15,324 Speaker 2: I would often like more straightforward information about is this 595 00:32:15,364 --> 00:32:17,084 Speaker 2: thing that is build as being really bad? Is it 596 00:32:17,124 --> 00:32:18,084 Speaker 2: actually bad or. 597 00:32:18,084 --> 00:32:19,004 Speaker 1: Absolutely you know? 598 00:32:19,204 --> 00:32:19,844 Speaker 2: Or not? Right? 599 00:32:20,084 --> 00:32:23,124 Speaker 1: Absolutely? I think I think that that's something that that 600 00:32:23,164 --> 00:32:26,804 Speaker 1: we can all aspire to. And the unfortunate truth though 601 00:32:26,844 --> 00:32:29,244 Speaker 1: is when it comes to nutrition, it is tough, but 602 00:32:29,364 --> 00:32:31,244 Speaker 1: we can we can do a little bit more about 603 00:32:31,244 --> 00:32:33,284 Speaker 1: that in the future. But do you want to take 604 00:32:33,284 --> 00:32:36,964 Speaker 1: a break and then end on some super Bowl predictions 605 00:32:37,084 --> 00:32:39,044 Speaker 1: or prop bets or just thoughts. 606 00:32:39,324 --> 00:32:41,884 Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do a few Superbowl bets. 607 00:32:59,084 --> 00:33:04,924 Speaker 1: Okay, Nate. So I'm so proud of myself because I, 608 00:33:05,084 --> 00:33:08,004 Speaker 1: in order to prepare for this segment, I figured out 609 00:33:08,044 --> 00:33:10,484 Speaker 1: who was going to be playing in the super Bowl. 610 00:33:10,964 --> 00:33:13,844 Speaker 1: This is my level of interest. I was like, I 611 00:33:13,884 --> 00:33:17,004 Speaker 1: was like, I got to I have to know who's playing. 612 00:33:17,284 --> 00:33:20,124 Speaker 1: So I was I was very proud of myself. That 613 00:33:20,324 --> 00:33:24,044 Speaker 1: is the extent of my super Bowl knowledge. So let's 614 00:33:24,124 --> 00:33:28,924 Speaker 1: have you take it away. We've already talked about, you know, 615 00:33:29,044 --> 00:33:33,164 Speaker 1: the odds of who you should be betting on the 616 00:33:33,244 --> 00:33:36,124 Speaker 1: Eagles or the Chiefs given where the odds are. But 617 00:33:36,684 --> 00:33:38,924 Speaker 1: let's talk about some Super Bowl prop bets because this 618 00:33:39,044 --> 00:33:42,324 Speaker 1: is something that you know, I think a lot of 619 00:33:42,364 --> 00:33:44,724 Speaker 1: people are interested in and more and more sports books 620 00:33:44,764 --> 00:33:48,764 Speaker 1: are offering just a whole array of them. How do 621 00:33:48,884 --> 00:33:51,604 Speaker 1: you think about it? By the way, do you think 622 00:33:51,644 --> 00:33:54,924 Speaker 1: that they're like, would you ever put money on prop 623 00:33:54,964 --> 00:33:58,244 Speaker 1: bets or you know, real money? I mean, maybe you'd 624 00:33:58,244 --> 00:34:00,124 Speaker 1: put on ten bucks because you think it's funny or 625 00:34:00,164 --> 00:34:03,324 Speaker 1: fun but would you ever actually like bet real money 626 00:34:03,324 --> 00:34:05,044 Speaker 1: on prop bets or do you think that that's not 627 00:34:05,364 --> 00:34:07,964 Speaker 1: kind of a smart way of looking at these things? 628 00:34:08,404 --> 00:34:11,644 Speaker 2: Oh? No, I so, actually in my book On the Edge, 629 00:34:13,164 --> 00:34:15,764 Speaker 2: there is discussion about Super Bowl prop bets. But wanted 630 00:34:15,804 --> 00:34:17,884 Speaker 2: to meet a guy named rufus pea buddy may be 631 00:34:18,004 --> 00:34:20,004 Speaker 2: familiar to fans of the show. He has his own 632 00:34:21,244 --> 00:34:23,964 Speaker 2: gambling related podcast with Jeff ma also featured in the book. 633 00:34:25,244 --> 00:34:27,844 Speaker 2: And yeah, so he is somebody who like builds computer 634 00:34:27,964 --> 00:34:32,004 Speaker 2: models and specializes in Super Bowl prop bets and is 635 00:34:32,124 --> 00:34:35,284 Speaker 2: very high ev in them to the point where of 636 00:34:35,284 --> 00:34:37,524 Speaker 2: course he gets limited, and you know he'll like, literally, 637 00:34:37,564 --> 00:34:41,004 Speaker 2: go is the West Gate the super book? Get the 638 00:34:41,004 --> 00:34:44,124 Speaker 2: West Gate? I think casino where they're famous for their 639 00:34:44,124 --> 00:34:46,644 Speaker 2: prop bets, will like set up camp and bring thousands 640 00:34:46,644 --> 00:34:47,964 Speaker 2: of dollars where you are all have to make like 641 00:34:47,964 --> 00:34:49,244 Speaker 2: two bets at a time, and you just like go 642 00:34:49,364 --> 00:34:51,084 Speaker 2: to the back of the line, right, But like you 643 00:34:51,324 --> 00:34:55,364 Speaker 2: these are these are beatable if you do research, and 644 00:34:55,484 --> 00:34:57,764 Speaker 2: I haven't done the research, but they're chaunting on people 645 00:34:57,804 --> 00:35:02,404 Speaker 2: being lazy, right that they're recreational bets. They're a lot 646 00:35:02,404 --> 00:35:05,524 Speaker 2: of fun, right, and so if you're sharp, And it's 647 00:35:05,564 --> 00:35:08,244 Speaker 2: probably true by the way, for the Super Bowl in general, 648 00:35:09,564 --> 00:35:12,204 Speaker 2: is that there's so much public money out there, everybody 649 00:35:12,284 --> 00:35:16,164 Speaker 2: is making a bet that there isn't enough sharp money. 650 00:35:16,204 --> 00:35:18,844 Speaker 2: There's not enough roofous pea buddies in the world to 651 00:35:19,124 --> 00:35:22,164 Speaker 2: gobble up all that all that expected value, right, And 652 00:35:22,204 --> 00:35:29,404 Speaker 2: so like you know, as of today Monday to third, 653 00:35:29,644 --> 00:35:32,524 Speaker 2: seventy seven percent of the money on the point spread 654 00:35:32,604 --> 00:35:37,444 Speaker 2: is on the Philadelphia Eagles. That's probably a good sign 655 00:35:37,484 --> 00:35:39,404 Speaker 2: that you should bet on the Kansas City Chiefs. See 656 00:35:39,444 --> 00:35:42,124 Speaker 2: of course are sixteen and one, right, who have won 657 00:35:42,204 --> 00:35:46,044 Speaker 2: two balls in a row have often had very hairy 658 00:35:46,244 --> 00:35:50,924 Speaker 2: escapes from games this year, right are are are you know? 659 00:35:50,964 --> 00:35:52,964 Speaker 2: But anyway, do you want to do some crop betting? 660 00:35:53,444 --> 00:35:55,724 Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, Well there's there's one that I know that 661 00:35:55,764 --> 00:35:57,884 Speaker 1: people do bet on, but it's just to me, it's 662 00:35:57,924 --> 00:35:59,764 Speaker 1: like so mind boggling, which is the result of the 663 00:35:59,804 --> 00:36:03,044 Speaker 1: coin toss, right, Like, why would you bet on that? 664 00:36:03,124 --> 00:36:07,364 Speaker 1: Of all the things that could be you know, predictable, modelable, 665 00:36:07,404 --> 00:36:09,764 Speaker 1: et cetera, it's a coin toss. This is what we 666 00:36:09,844 --> 00:36:12,924 Speaker 1: base a lot of our statistics on, right, the fact 667 00:36:13,044 --> 00:36:15,964 Speaker 1: that a coin toss is fifty to fifty and yet 668 00:36:16,284 --> 00:36:18,084 Speaker 1: and yet night it's like the. 669 00:36:18,044 --> 00:36:23,684 Speaker 2: Face tattoo of of gambling. Right, It's just you're so. 670 00:36:23,764 --> 00:36:26,484 Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, heads does win like fifty 671 00:36:26,604 --> 00:36:28,124 Speaker 2: point five percent of time or something? 672 00:36:28,204 --> 00:36:32,244 Speaker 1: Right, Well, in our limited data set of Super Bowls. 673 00:36:32,324 --> 00:36:34,444 Speaker 2: Well, no, but the reference class is like, isn't there 674 00:36:34,484 --> 00:36:35,924 Speaker 2: wasn't that a study? Have we talked about this for 675 00:36:36,124 --> 00:36:38,844 Speaker 2: like where like a coin flip is not actually random 676 00:36:38,844 --> 00:36:40,724 Speaker 2: whatever aerodynamic shit it lines on. 677 00:36:40,684 --> 00:36:42,804 Speaker 1: The Yeah, well it depends on the coin. 678 00:36:42,964 --> 00:36:45,484 Speaker 2: Yes, and I guess it's a special Super Bowl commemorative 679 00:36:45,604 --> 00:36:47,124 Speaker 2: coin with I don't know what the fuck on this. 680 00:36:47,484 --> 00:36:49,164 Speaker 1: I don't know about that one. But no, the study 681 00:36:49,204 --> 00:36:52,724 Speaker 1: you're talking about there was. There was a study where 682 00:36:52,724 --> 00:36:54,924 Speaker 1: it turned out that the two faces were not actually 683 00:36:55,004 --> 00:36:56,364 Speaker 1: weighted equally. 684 00:36:56,724 --> 00:36:59,044 Speaker 2: If I were the Kansas City chiefs for the field 685 00:36:59,044 --> 00:37:01,884 Speaker 2: of fit Egals, I would have a fucking intern spend 686 00:37:02,044 --> 00:37:05,444 Speaker 2: the week researching what coin will be flipped and which 687 00:37:05,484 --> 00:37:08,404 Speaker 2: side is like heavier, Right, I would optimize that strategy 688 00:37:08,684 --> 00:37:09,284 Speaker 2: if possible. 689 00:37:09,524 --> 00:37:12,364 Speaker 1: What if you find out that neither side is heavier? 690 00:37:12,964 --> 00:37:16,604 Speaker 2: Uh, come on, I'm not gonna I think the side 691 00:37:16,964 --> 00:37:19,244 Speaker 2: it's like once I with like a little l i 692 00:37:19,524 --> 00:37:24,204 Speaker 2: X it's Super Bowl licks l I X. That looks heavy, right, 693 00:37:24,244 --> 00:37:26,284 Speaker 2: there's like a lot of embossing and shit like that. 694 00:37:27,804 --> 00:37:29,844 Speaker 2: So I bet on the on the LICKS side. I think, 695 00:37:29,924 --> 00:37:33,044 Speaker 2: which is a heavier side, fall tend to come up 696 00:37:33,604 --> 00:37:34,044 Speaker 2: on top. 697 00:37:34,244 --> 00:37:37,324 Speaker 1: No, the heavier side is going to be on the bottom, Okay. 698 00:37:37,044 --> 00:37:41,884 Speaker 2: So bet against licks. I think bet against the side 699 00:37:41,924 --> 00:37:44,404 Speaker 2: with a big Super Bowl logo on it. And I 700 00:37:44,444 --> 00:37:47,524 Speaker 2: don't know if that's heads or tails, so and probably 701 00:37:47,524 --> 00:37:48,884 Speaker 2: not enough to whatever. Where are they are? 702 00:37:48,884 --> 00:37:49,044 Speaker 1: There? 703 00:37:49,084 --> 00:37:51,804 Speaker 2: Are they giving like minus one ten on this bets? 704 00:37:51,844 --> 00:37:54,484 Speaker 2: You're risking eleven dollars to win ten? Right? But like 705 00:37:55,084 --> 00:37:56,724 Speaker 2: if I don't know, I think there's some edge there, 706 00:37:56,844 --> 00:37:58,684 Speaker 2: maybe with minus one oh one or something. 707 00:38:00,204 --> 00:38:02,604 Speaker 1: Well, we'll see, we'll see. And also do we know 708 00:38:02,924 --> 00:38:06,324 Speaker 1: so maybe this is we're getting into the nitty gritty 709 00:38:06,364 --> 00:38:11,004 Speaker 1: of coin tosses. Guys, do we know whether they always 710 00:38:11,044 --> 00:38:13,884 Speaker 1: position the coin with the same side up before the 711 00:38:13,924 --> 00:38:16,404 Speaker 1: flip or is that also random? Do they flip a 712 00:38:16,404 --> 00:38:18,244 Speaker 1: coin to know where their heads or tails is going 713 00:38:18,324 --> 00:38:19,964 Speaker 1: to be up when the flip starts. 714 00:38:20,284 --> 00:38:22,244 Speaker 2: I'm just telling you, this fucking Super Bowl logos had 715 00:38:22,284 --> 00:38:24,764 Speaker 2: looks pretty fucking heavy. You know, I can't tell if 716 00:38:24,764 --> 00:38:27,484 Speaker 2: it's in bosted or not, but yeah, Google superb commemorative coin. 717 00:38:27,764 --> 00:38:29,604 Speaker 1: All right, Well there's your. 718 00:38:29,484 --> 00:38:32,324 Speaker 2: Coupon code risky business for no I'm just kidding. 719 00:38:32,964 --> 00:38:37,044 Speaker 1: That would be hilarious. But yes, okay, okay, fine, we 720 00:38:37,044 --> 00:38:39,964 Speaker 1: could do some research, but it's still likes. That's about 721 00:38:40,004 --> 00:38:42,564 Speaker 1: as DEGENNI of a bit as as you can get. 722 00:38:42,644 --> 00:38:46,284 Speaker 1: I think the coin toss. But there are also a 723 00:38:46,324 --> 00:38:51,844 Speaker 1: lot of other lines that are available, such as will 724 00:38:51,884 --> 00:38:54,724 Speaker 1: a player or a coach cried during the national anthem? 725 00:38:54,924 --> 00:38:57,204 Speaker 1: That seems like a gimme, right, someone's gonna cry? 726 00:38:57,524 --> 00:38:59,524 Speaker 2: Yeah, minus three hundred, I think. 727 00:39:00,844 --> 00:39:01,604 Speaker 1: Minus a million. 728 00:39:02,204 --> 00:39:06,124 Speaker 2: Okay, look, I'll take I'll take no crying at plus 729 00:39:06,124 --> 00:39:06,684 Speaker 2: five hundred. 730 00:39:09,444 --> 00:39:11,924 Speaker 1: All right, all right, let's say we could talk about that. 731 00:39:12,124 --> 00:39:16,084 Speaker 2: Okay, I'm betting twenty bucks at plus five hundred on 732 00:39:16,204 --> 00:39:18,724 Speaker 2: no crying. If no one cries you owe one hundred bucks. Okay, 733 00:39:19,404 --> 00:39:20,084 Speaker 2: let me. 734 00:39:20,004 --> 00:39:22,324 Speaker 1: Think about it. How do we define crying? It's tearing up? 735 00:39:22,484 --> 00:39:27,684 Speaker 1: Is tearing up? Is tearing up a because I think 736 00:39:28,444 --> 00:39:30,404 Speaker 1: I mean like you. I don't mean someone's going to 737 00:39:30,524 --> 00:39:34,124 Speaker 1: like full out bawling, but like tearing up. I think 738 00:39:34,484 --> 00:39:36,924 Speaker 1: for me counts. That's that's when I said, like minus 739 00:39:36,924 --> 00:39:37,804 Speaker 1: a million, you have to. 740 00:39:37,804 --> 00:39:40,644 Speaker 2: See a tier. Okay, not merely watery. You have to 741 00:39:40,644 --> 00:39:41,204 Speaker 2: see a tier. 742 00:39:41,364 --> 00:39:44,164 Speaker 1: But what happens? But we can't see everyone either, So 743 00:39:44,204 --> 00:39:45,804 Speaker 1: who actually decides this? 744 00:39:45,884 --> 00:39:48,684 Speaker 2: But on the official whichevery Networks till us in the game, 745 00:39:48,684 --> 00:39:52,884 Speaker 2: which should probably no official broadcast. It's on Fox on 746 00:39:52,964 --> 00:39:56,524 Speaker 2: the Fox News US, not Fox deport this or whatever? 747 00:39:56,604 --> 00:39:59,844 Speaker 2: Right the Fox News US feed during the national anthem? 748 00:40:00,164 --> 00:40:03,084 Speaker 2: Is there a player or coach who has a tier 749 00:40:03,124 --> 00:40:05,284 Speaker 2: in the ride during the national anthem? Picture on Fox? 750 00:40:05,284 --> 00:40:07,524 Speaker 1: All right, we can do it. How about ten dollars? 751 00:40:07,684 --> 00:40:08,164 Speaker 1: Not twenty? 752 00:40:08,244 --> 00:40:10,564 Speaker 2: Okay, okay, fine, okay, we're we're. 753 00:40:10,324 --> 00:40:12,084 Speaker 1: Do you risking? And then and then you're on let's 754 00:40:12,084 --> 00:40:12,364 Speaker 1: do it? 755 00:40:12,724 --> 00:40:14,484 Speaker 2: Any of their bets. 756 00:40:16,244 --> 00:40:18,324 Speaker 1: First song performed by Kendrick Lamar. 757 00:40:19,764 --> 00:40:20,964 Speaker 2: I look these odds up. 758 00:40:22,804 --> 00:40:25,164 Speaker 1: Does Polymarket, by the way, have odds for all of 759 00:40:25,164 --> 00:40:26,364 Speaker 1: these Super Bowl bets as well. 760 00:40:26,484 --> 00:40:29,124 Speaker 2: I'm I'm and I'm an investor to POLYMCA. I'm sure, 761 00:40:29,164 --> 00:40:34,404 Speaker 2: I'm sure you can. You know, Dja hard your heart's content, okay, 762 00:40:34,484 --> 00:40:38,884 Speaker 2: not like us. Plus one humble plus two ten for you, 763 00:40:38,924 --> 00:40:41,604 Speaker 2: plus three hundred by the weather is also a plus 764 00:40:41,644 --> 00:40:45,764 Speaker 2: seven to fifty chance of a Taylor Swift cam girl 765 00:40:45,844 --> 00:40:48,844 Speaker 2: friend of the Cansallity Chiefs taught in I have you know? 766 00:40:51,124 --> 00:40:54,604 Speaker 2: Taylor Swift guests appearance is plus seven fifty. I guess 767 00:40:54,644 --> 00:40:57,644 Speaker 2: I kind of like that. I mean she's in the stadium, right, Yeah, 768 00:40:58,764 --> 00:41:03,284 Speaker 2: I don't know, I mean it would be Actually I don't. 769 00:41:03,324 --> 00:41:06,564 Speaker 2: I mean, I mean overexposure is a problem. 770 00:41:06,724 --> 00:41:10,044 Speaker 1: Right, what's this true? This is? 771 00:41:12,244 --> 00:41:14,884 Speaker 2: But yeah, you can, like, look, you can bet on everything, basically, 772 00:41:14,924 --> 00:41:18,084 Speaker 2: any any other bits you want to make with me, though, Maria, No. 773 00:41:22,964 --> 00:41:25,644 Speaker 1: We got one. We got one. We'll report back on 774 00:41:25,724 --> 00:41:32,084 Speaker 1: the risky business prop bet, I say, sadly, Nate, I'm too, 775 00:41:32,244 --> 00:41:35,364 Speaker 1: I'm too Uh, You're you're too good. I can't. I 776 00:41:35,404 --> 00:41:38,484 Speaker 1: can't bet against you, and I know nothing. The funny 777 00:41:38,484 --> 00:41:40,164 Speaker 1: thing is, though these types of prop bets, you need 778 00:41:40,204 --> 00:41:44,564 Speaker 1: to know absolutely nothing about football or about the actual 779 00:41:44,844 --> 00:41:45,964 Speaker 1: kind of results of the game. 780 00:41:47,044 --> 00:41:48,644 Speaker 2: But there is like, what's a chance that like a 781 00:41:48,764 --> 00:41:51,484 Speaker 2: foam ball return in the second quarter results? And you know, 782 00:41:51,724 --> 00:41:52,844 Speaker 2: I like that kind of stuff. 783 00:41:53,284 --> 00:41:56,564 Speaker 1: Yeah, there are prop bets that are actually very much 784 00:41:56,684 --> 00:41:59,564 Speaker 1: related to football knowledge and to the actual gameplay, but 785 00:41:59,604 --> 00:42:02,564 Speaker 1: the ones we've been talking about are completely random. So 786 00:42:02,844 --> 00:42:05,844 Speaker 1: I guess, Nate, you don't have any special insider knowledge. 787 00:42:05,924 --> 00:42:08,604 Speaker 1: And I'm hoping that my knowledge of human psychology will 788 00:42:08,644 --> 00:42:13,204 Speaker 1: render me on top on our crying that someone will 789 00:42:13,244 --> 00:42:15,244 Speaker 1: tear up I believe where. 790 00:42:15,164 --> 00:42:16,804 Speaker 2: You actually find that. On Thursday, there's going to be 791 00:42:16,804 --> 00:42:19,524 Speaker 2: a silver bulletin post about historic crying during the Super 792 00:42:19,524 --> 00:42:21,724 Speaker 2: Bowl and empirical rates of crying every time. And now 793 00:42:21,764 --> 00:42:22,364 Speaker 2: that's changed. 794 00:42:25,284 --> 00:42:27,084 Speaker 1: What was that voice? I like that? 795 00:42:27,444 --> 00:42:29,244 Speaker 2: I don't know. It's a blogger voice. I don't know. 796 00:42:29,284 --> 00:42:33,204 Speaker 1: Would blogger your blogger voice? Got it? And on that note, 797 00:42:33,444 --> 00:42:36,404 Speaker 1: Risky Business listeners, we will see you next week where 798 00:42:36,444 --> 00:42:39,244 Speaker 1: we will know whether crying did in fact take place. 799 00:42:49,084 --> 00:42:51,244 Speaker 1: Let us know what you think of the show. Reach 800 00:42:51,324 --> 00:42:54,604 Speaker 1: out to us at Risky Business at Pushkin dot fm. 801 00:42:55,004 --> 00:42:57,444 Speaker 1: And by the way, if you're a Pushkin Plus subscriber, 802 00:42:57,644 --> 00:43:00,484 Speaker 1: we have some bonus content for you. We'll be answering 803 00:43:00,484 --> 00:43:03,484 Speaker 1: a listener question each week that's coming up right after 804 00:43:03,524 --> 00:43:04,244 Speaker 1: the credits. 805 00:43:04,404 --> 00:43:07,684 Speaker 2: And if you're not subscribing yet, consider signing up for 806 00:43:07,844 --> 00:43:10,644 Speaker 2: just six ninety nine a month. Nice price. You get 807 00:43:10,684 --> 00:43:13,604 Speaker 2: access to all that premium content and ad for listening 808 00:43:13,644 --> 00:43:15,684 Speaker 2: across the Pushkins and Hire network. Of show. 809 00:43:16,564 --> 00:43:20,244 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanikova. 810 00:43:19,404 --> 00:43:21,804 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show is a co 811 00:43:21,844 --> 00:43:25,644 Speaker 2: production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced 812 00:43:25,644 --> 00:43:29,164 Speaker 2: by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. 813 00:43:29,724 --> 00:43:32,724 Speaker 2: Sally Helm is our editor, and our executive producer is 814 00:43:32,764 --> 00:43:35,124 Speaker 2: Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Breuger. 815 00:43:35,564 --> 00:43:37,924 Speaker 1: If you like this show, please rate and review us 816 00:43:37,964 --> 00:43:41,764 Speaker 1: so other people can find us too. Thanks so much 817 00:43:41,764 --> 00:43:42,324 Speaker 1: for tuning in.