1 00:00:01,360 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from ceo, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 4 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,919 Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. It is time to bring 7 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 1: in somebody now who knows a lot about this morning's 8 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: job's report, because he's the one receiving the calls about 9 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 1: job openings and trying to fill them as well. Tom 10 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: gimbal Is, CEO of global staffing company lasal And Network. 11 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: You weren't maybe exactly the person answering the phones, Tom, 12 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: but I'm sure you have in the past. So Tom, 13 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:41,880 Speaker 1: what was the months like? I mean, we're all heartbroken 14 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 1: for the people that are looking for jobs and can't 15 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: find them. Is there much of that? You know? The 16 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:50,160 Speaker 1: John markets really strong. I think what we saw today 17 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 1: is that we added over six hundred thousand jobs, the 18 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 1: unemployment rate drop. Um, It's it's never going to be 19 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 1: perfect for everybody, but this is a good report and 20 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: we have to realize that we have the pandemic and 21 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 1: that's hospitality workers, airlines and these restaurant workers that add 22 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 1: to the unemployment number being what it is. And if 23 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: we didn't have that and people were dining in and 24 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:18,559 Speaker 1: traveling and staying at hotels, would be a very different situation. 25 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 1: It's fascinating, you know. You see the daily coronavirus case 26 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,119 Speaker 1: load just increase every day now and we're one twenty 27 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 1: six thousand to concerned? Are you for all of the 28 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: people that you know, Cole and all of the client's 29 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,759 Speaker 1: tom that we're going to see lockdowns again and business closings. 30 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 1: You know, I'm not so sure that we're gonna we're 31 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 1: gonna see the lockdown. I think what it'll be interesting 32 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: to see now with the election hopefully somewhat over um 33 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 1: and and when we get a new a new stimulus package, 34 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: of of how that affects it. I think what we'll 35 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: see is south of the Mason Dixon line, you're gonna 36 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: have people being able to eat outside, and that'll be okay. 37 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: I think when we get into the northern cities and 38 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: what happens. I think that even with a Biden presidency, 39 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 1: that there's people that the majority of the population that 40 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:07,600 Speaker 1: wants to have the opportunity to go out and go 41 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 1: eat and have things open. So I'm fairly optimistic that 42 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: that come January, UM, things are gonna open up a 43 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 1: little bit. Yeah, what were the industries then, Tom, that 44 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 1: you saw that we're picking up this month, So professional 45 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 1: services really seem to be to be continued to grow. 46 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: And what we're seeing is a lot of I T 47 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: workers continuing to be a hotspot back office accounting and finance, 48 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: and now with UM hospitals for the past few months 49 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: being able to treat people for non COVID related UM 50 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 1: surgeries and procedures, we've seen medical health care and back 51 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: office in those settings as well as UH nurse practitioners, 52 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 1: physician assistants, things like that really starting to pick up. 53 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 1: We were just speaking with Lawrence Hower of Johns Hopkins 54 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 1: University said that that portion of the you know, the 55 00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:59,360 Speaker 1: labor work is at least those who have been working 56 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: are absolutely exhausted. Tom. How many people out there you 57 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 1: know are in need of a genuine break from this. 58 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 1: I think that's really the interesting point you bring up, Bonny, 59 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: and what what what that is is you've got a 60 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 1: lot of people that are working standard jobs UM and 61 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 1: that are going into their into their office, whether it's 62 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 1: blue collar workers, healthcare professionals, UM, police, fireman, retail workers. 63 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 1: And then you have white collar what I call white 64 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: collar privilege is people who are at home in their house, 65 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: they don't have to leave, and they're complaining because they're 66 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: on zoom meetings all day. And we've got really a 67 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 1: lack of empathy towards these people in the healthcare space, 68 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 1: in the in the crucial worker category that we've got 69 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: to get a lot more empathy for those people and 70 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 1: and realize what's going on here. But unfortunately, when when 71 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: the your time is called to work and and there 72 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 1: aren't enough will in those areas, you have to do it. Yeah, 73 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 1: And I mean especially if you don't know if your 74 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: job is going to exist in a couple of months, right, 75 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 1: because what's tragic is that there's absolutely no guarantee that 76 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 1: one S coronavirus is under control that all of these 77 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 1: people working on the front lines will have jobs because 78 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 1: hospital systems might be bankrupt by then. Well, I I 79 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,280 Speaker 1: think that's a little bit of a drastic perspective body 80 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: from the standpoint of I don't think the hospital systems 81 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: will be bankrupt. I think that what we've seen with 82 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 1: the governments, whether it be the airlines or the automotive industry, 83 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 1: is that if there's big hospital chains and there's cash 84 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 1: flow problems and revenue problems, that the government can provide 85 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 1: and provide a stimulus package there. We're not going to 86 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,799 Speaker 1: let that aspect of our health care system go down. 87 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 1: And I think that the jobs will be there and 88 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 1: what we've seen. I've got a CEO of a surgical 89 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:54,840 Speaker 1: practice in the in the Chicago Land area and they 90 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: are actually going to have a better year this year 91 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,839 Speaker 1: than ever before because the bill hold up of people 92 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 1: over April, May and June just exploded July, August, September 93 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 1: and October and they were doing so much more from 94 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 1: people who wanted to get things taken care of. And 95 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 1: I think we're going to continue to see that elective 96 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:14,919 Speaker 1: procedures are going to increase. And I think there's really 97 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 1: a sense in this in society, from working class people 98 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 1: to blue collar to executive is that people are are 99 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:24,040 Speaker 1: feeling now that you have to enjoy your life. And 100 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: once COVID's down, I think that you're really going to 101 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,600 Speaker 1: see an increase in travel. You're gonna see an increase 102 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 1: in tourism. You're gonna see an increase in elective procedures, 103 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: that there's going to be an increase in auto sales. 104 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 1: What we saw on the third quarter with GMS numbers 105 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 1: which were really good, You're gonna see that consumer consumer 106 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 1: purchasing is going to increase a lot in You know, Tom, 107 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 1: what advice do you have for those out there who 108 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 1: have been barely putting food on the table for their families, 109 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: who may have had just a wonderful job before now, 110 00:05:56,240 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: but weren't really con concerned about something like a pandemic. Uh. 111 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 1: You know, I walk home from work and I see 112 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 1: country lines, I see food lines, and I know that 113 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 1: there are people in those lines that have never seen 114 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: the inside of a country before. What do you say 115 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:13,039 Speaker 1: to those people trying to get up and put on 116 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 1: a brafface every day? So I'd say, number one, Um, 117 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:20,920 Speaker 1: it will it will end. Number two. It's it's not 118 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 1: that all dissimilar from two thousand eight UM in the 119 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:28,359 Speaker 1: financial crisis, when we thought actually the whole system was 120 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 1: going to crash. And so there's there is the empathy 121 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:34,839 Speaker 1: side for all of us to realize that this population 122 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 1: is different than was two thousand and eight, and we 123 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 1: have to realize that the next time it could do us. 124 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 1: So we've got to care for our fellow human beings. 125 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 1: I think for those that are newly unemployed and living 126 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,760 Speaker 1: hand them out, there are jobs out there, and whether 127 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:50,599 Speaker 1: it be working in a warehouse for the holiday season, 128 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: whether it be doing call center work, UM, whether it 129 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 1: be um some sort of hospitality job outside. It may 130 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: even be having to relocate to warmer weather um and 131 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 1: and pick up seasonal work. But there are opportunities. You 132 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 1: just can't have an entitlement aspect of this shouldn't be 133 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: happening to me, because woe is me, won't get any 134 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: of us through this. And my business lost a ton 135 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 1: of business in April and May, but we didn't lay 136 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 1: off a soul. We actually hired more. We fired people 137 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: who weren't having a good attitude and good work ethic, 138 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: and now our businesses at pre COVID levels. And I 139 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 1: think if you stick with things and you believe that 140 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: that you're doing everything you can, that there is opportunity 141 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 1: out there, you just have to find it. Tom Wise 142 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 1: words from man who's been in this business for a 143 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 1: long long time and has much made millions of people 144 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 1: two jobs, and they may not be the jobs that 145 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 1: they were expecting to get or wanting to get. But 146 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 1: I'm sure there's been a lot of happy tales coming 147 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 1: out of LaSalle Network. So thank you very much for 148 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: joining us again this month after the Job's report, which 149 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 1: again showed that the economy is creating jobs. Maybe not 150 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 1: as many as we've hoped, but still there was a 151 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: lot of jobs created last month. Tom Gimball, CEO of 152 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: global staffing company lasal Network, Well, I'm delighted to welcome 153 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: you now. The chief equity investment Officer for Eaton Vents, 154 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 1: Eddie Parkin joins us from Boston. With five seven plus 155 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,239 Speaker 1: billion dollars now sets under management at Eaton Vans, Eddie 156 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: a lot on your shoulders. Would you have predicted what 157 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 1: has happened so far and what happens next if you did, Vonnie, 158 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 1: good to be with you. Thank you for your question. Yes, 159 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 1: you know, coming into coming into the election period, the 160 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 1: market was beginning to play with the idea that value 161 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: stock small caps international stocks could begin to rotate back 162 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: into favor um. The expectation that the market had was 163 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 1: that there'd be a blue wave, meaning primarily that not 164 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:53,199 Speaker 1: only would Biden win the White House, but that you 165 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:58,439 Speaker 1: would have Democrats take both chambers of Congress. That second piece, 166 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 1: the Senate, is what may not ultimately come through, and 167 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:04,439 Speaker 1: that I think is why on Wednesday you had sort 168 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 1: of a return to how things have been most of 169 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 1: this year and in prior years, where the mega cap 170 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: tech stocks lead on Wednesday, but with UM, with the 171 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 1: possibility that the Democrats could still take the Senate, the 172 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 1: prediction markets, the betting markets have that at about with 173 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: the likelihood that Biden will be the next president. UM, 174 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:28,319 Speaker 1: there is a sort of expectation of higher interest rates 175 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 1: that would come from that, and then the jobs number 176 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:33,559 Speaker 1: today magnifies that. So everything is trading off of rates 177 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 1: right now. The growth value trade has driven off of 178 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: rates UH and inslation expectations, and so that really the 179 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 1: tenure yield really is driving the rotation in the equity 180 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:46,079 Speaker 1: markets this week. Yes, so interesting. I just want to 181 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 1: point out that if that did happen in the Senate, 182 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 1: we wouldn't know until January because we'd be counting on 183 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 1: runoff races. As far as I understand it. Also, I 184 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 1: do want to point out that we're waiting on the 185 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raethinsburger to brief on the 186 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 1: election in the work of the election officials right now. 187 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 1: So this is an ever changing chess board even as 188 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 1: we move through the hours today. If we do get 189 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 1: a Biden presidency and the Senate stays read or we 190 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 1: don't know about the Senate until next year, what will 191 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 1: you tell your clients about tax and spending and regulatory policies. 192 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:22,560 Speaker 1: What will your assumptions be. Well, it makes it very 193 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: uncertain right because we've got a little under two months 194 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 1: until the end of the year, and normally you have 195 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 1: financial advisors and clients doing a lot of end of 196 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 1: year tax planning that includes charitable giving, it includes uh 197 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: in a normal year, it would include take harvesting losses, 198 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 1: taking taking tax losses, which is something that eaton VANCE 199 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 1: and our affiliate Parametric does a lot of We we 200 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,839 Speaker 1: really focus on after tax returns, and so we were 201 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 1: thinking this year, if the Democrats take the Senate, then 202 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 1: it's likely you're going to have increases to capital gains 203 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,080 Speaker 1: tax rates next year, and it actually might make sense 204 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:00,719 Speaker 1: to reverse the normal protocol and take gains this year, 205 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 1: pull your gains forward into a lower tax regime. But 206 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 1: given that it looks like we won't know the makeup 207 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 1: of the Senate until these two Georgia runoffs, which are 208 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:10,679 Speaker 1: going to happen. I believe it's January five. People are 209 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 1: going to have to make end of year tax decisions 210 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 1: with uncertain information about what the political makeup of the Senators, 211 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 1: and I think that makes it particularly tricky this year, 212 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 1: right particularly as I say, if we're seeing a stock 213 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 1: market that continues to rally on this rotation, you know, 214 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: I know you're rare incident in the value growth rotation. 215 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: And we just heard our cross as that reports Aeroponza 216 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: I talk about how the landscape changed just this week alone, 217 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:34,920 Speaker 1: from the beginning of the week to the end of 218 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 1: the week. Where in value would you be looking for gains? 219 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:43,559 Speaker 1: I think value comes in many forms. So it comes 220 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 1: in the form of cyclical stocks that could be industrials 221 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: or commodity based stocks like energy, basic materials, all of 222 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 1: which have lagged. It comes in the form of financial stocks, 223 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 1: particularly the banks, where higher interest rates that that could 224 00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 1: come from higher fiscal spending and and and bigger fiscal 225 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 1: deficits that would be good for the banks. Because of 226 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:06,319 Speaker 1: course they earn a spread between short and long dated 227 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:09,199 Speaker 1: interest rates um and then it comes in other kind 228 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 1: of non traditional forms. So small caps stocks tend to 229 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 1: be more value oriented and do well when values in favor, 230 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 1: and international stocks, particularly Europe and Japan UH do do better. 231 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 1: So I the divergence, the spread between what is cheap 232 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 1: and what is expensive as as wide as it's ever been. 233 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 1: So if you get the right catalyst, there could be 234 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 1: a significant rotation into some of those areas I just mentioned. Yeah, 235 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 1: So in that situation, then would you actually tell clients 236 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:40,560 Speaker 1: to put money to work or to rotate out of 237 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 1: more growthy trades and into value right now? I would, 238 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: and I would do it gradually. I wouldn't try and 239 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: call the absolute bottom of the of the value market. 240 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 1: I would do it over a period of time dollar 241 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:55,200 Speaker 1: cost average. I would also advise people to look at 242 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 1: where your target allocations were at the beginning of this year. 243 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 1: If you had a certain percentage of your money in 244 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:03,599 Speaker 1: US versus non US, or in large versus small, or 245 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 1: growth versus value. The performance of the market this year 246 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,719 Speaker 1: has caused a lot of drift in your portfolio, even 247 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:13,319 Speaker 1: if you've done nothing. If you've just sat tight. Your 248 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 1: portfolio now looks very different in terms of its nicks 249 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 1: than it did on January one, So just you know, 250 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 1: an easy way to do this is just to rebalance 251 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 1: back to where you were at the beginning of the year, 252 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:27,439 Speaker 1: or rebalanced whatever targets your financial advisor advises, uh. And 253 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: that is a way of taking a small step in 254 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:33,200 Speaker 1: the direction that I'm describing. Eddie. How much are you 255 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:36,440 Speaker 1: following the TikTok of you know, the actual ballots counted, 256 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: and how much do something like this morning's jobs reports, 257 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 1: which was okay but slightly disappointing. How much does that, 258 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 1: you know, impact what you're watching. Well, of course we've 259 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 1: you know, we've we're focused on the long term, but 260 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 1: the election does have an impact on that, particularly if 261 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 1: if you get new policies around taxes and regulations and 262 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 1: and trade. So it is worth following. It's also very 263 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:01,680 Speaker 1: of course interesting, uh theater um. But it does seem 264 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 1: likely to my eyes that that that Biden is going 265 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 1: to pull this out. And the bigger question, of course, 266 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: as we said earlier, is what what happens in the Senate? Yeah, exactly, 267 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 1: And and as we both said, we may not know 268 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 1: that on til January. So that'll be a fun couple 269 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: of months. What gets done in the next two months 270 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 1: if we have that kind of situation where Biden's president 271 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 1: and there are court cases from the Trump campaign that 272 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 1: are still live and we don't fully know the make 273 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: of the Senate is a complete lame duck session until 274 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 1: January and February. Well, it's normally a lame duck session 275 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 1: anyway under normal circumstances. But of course you're going to 276 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: have a lot of activity in the courts and in 277 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 1: the media. I can't even begin to imagine how much 278 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 1: money is going to pour into Georgia to try and 279 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 1: win those two two seats if the if the Senate 280 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 1: is on the line there. But I'm a little surprised, frankly, 281 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:53,880 Speaker 1: that the market is, you know, the market, the SMP 282 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 1: five hundred month today, which is just six days old, 283 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 1: is up uh seven and a half percent. And that's um, 284 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 1: that's striking given all of this uncertainty, right Um, we're 285 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 1: talking about court battles, we're talking about accusations of fraud. 286 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 1: We're still not sure who the president will be. We 287 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 1: don't know who's gonna have the Senate, and yet the 288 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 1: market is rising in the face of that, and it's 289 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 1: it's quite striking. What's the most major complaint or query 290 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 1: that you're getting from your top clients? Now, your most 291 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 1: wealthy clients complaint. I'm sure they complained sometimes to talk 292 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:28,360 Speaker 1: not about you guys, but just about the state of things. Yeah. 293 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: I think there's been a lot of uncertainty, really going 294 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 1: back to the April May time period where things looked 295 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 1: so bad for the economy and yet the market bottomed 296 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 1: in late March and began to rise. And I think 297 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 1: there's just been Uh, it's taken a long time for 298 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 1: people to get their minds around the idea that stocks 299 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: can go up even when the economy is in tough shape. 300 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 1: And I think it's a function of a couple of things. 301 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 1: One is the fact that the market stock markets always 302 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 1: looking forward. So if we can treaty is a one 303 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 1: time right off on the earnings and economic front, then 304 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 1: we can go back to the earnings power that companies 305 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 1: have in the longer term. Obviously, if you're a small 306 00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:06,440 Speaker 1: business who's really struggling that that doesn't sound very good. 307 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: But for public equities, for large companies, they are able 308 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 1: to weather through this, and there's hope that you know, 309 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 1: once a vaccine comes, will be able to go back 310 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 1: to normal and back to the earnings power these these 311 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 1: companies have. And so that's part of it, and the 312 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: other part it is just the aggressive said policy the 313 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 1: FED basically saying we're here to backstop risk assets and uh. 314 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 1: And that's that's another reason why stocks have been going 315 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 1: up despite the economic news being relatively poor. Okay, Eddie, 316 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 1: thank you, but let you back to your screens. I 317 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 1: would imagine that will all be glued to them all 318 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 1: day long. Eddie park In, his chief equity investment officer 319 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: at Eton Vans in Boston, which is well more than 320 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 1: five hundred billion dollars in assets under management. Bloomberg Opinion 321 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 1: informed perspectives and expert data driven commentary on breaking news. 322 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 1: I want to get to the Bloomberg giving in in 323 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 1: just a moment, but first to update you on Larry 324 00:16:56,880 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 1: Cudloe's comments just a few moments ago at the White House, 325 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 1: President Trump's topic economic advisor said he expects a peaceful 326 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 1: transfer of power if Biden wins the presidency. He was 327 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 1: gaggling again outside the White House, and in this case 328 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: he was responding to a question from CNBC, said, we 329 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 1: abide by the rule of law, and so will this president. 330 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:18,439 Speaker 1: So he sounds fairly certain that there will be a 331 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:22,399 Speaker 1: peaceful transfer of power. He also mentioned that President Trump, 332 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell, and Steve Lucian, the Treasury Secretary, still want 333 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 1: a stimulus deal. We knew that McConnell had come out 334 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,159 Speaker 1: and said he wanted a deal now by the end 335 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 1: of the year. But also, of course we're not quite 336 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 1: sure about Nancy Pelosi or what her status is right now. 337 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: So let's get to how everybody outside the United States 338 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,360 Speaker 1: is viewing this, and for that, let's bring in Bloomberg 339 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,439 Speaker 1: opinion columnist Leonel Loan, who covers the European Union in 340 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:50,119 Speaker 1: France typically but today is very very definitely covering the 341 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 1: US election. He says, there are a numerous uncertainty surrounding 342 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 1: the U s presidential election, but the good news for 343 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 1: the European Union is that it's unofficial preferred candidate looks 344 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,720 Speaker 1: close to taking the White House. So Lionel Joe Biden, 345 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:07,399 Speaker 1: why is he the preferred candidate? Well, I think because 346 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,680 Speaker 1: he isn't Donald Trump, and because everything he has said 347 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:15,679 Speaker 1: points to a more productive and a more friendly tone 348 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,360 Speaker 1: over the over the next four years. If he becomes president, 349 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 1: he said that he would rejoin the Climate Accords. He 350 00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: said that he would rejoin the the Iran Deal if 351 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 1: if Iran complied, and that the w h O would 352 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 1: also see more support as well. So I think in 353 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 1: terms of the good news is that you are likely 354 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: to get a much more stable and predictable and friendly 355 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:41,399 Speaker 1: transplantic relationship. However, I do think that there are going 356 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:45,400 Speaker 1: to be some uncertainties, and the Europeans in general will 357 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 1: view this not as a kind of total return to 358 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,679 Speaker 1: life before Trump, right, because the Arapan Union in the 359 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:55,440 Speaker 1: in the last four years has had its own internal 360 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,159 Speaker 1: difficulties as well, and very many of them. So if 361 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,959 Speaker 1: it is a Biden presidency, and again this is hypothetical, 362 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 1: we don't know yet that that's going to be the case. 363 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 1: But if it were to be, what would Joe Biden's 364 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 1: approach be regarding Europe versus Britain. How would he stay 365 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: out of that fight? Well, I think we know enough 366 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 1: to know that, firstly, Brexit is not some major strategic 367 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,000 Speaker 1: priority for the US, and we know that the Democrats 368 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,240 Speaker 1: in the House still very much want a deal of 369 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,359 Speaker 1: respect of Good Friday Agreement. We also know that Joe 370 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: Biden sees Germany as the big unfair target of Trump's anger, 371 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 1: and so I think there would definitely be a hand 372 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,679 Speaker 1: extended to Germany and the EUSE. So it's that that 373 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 1: isn't so much the uncertainty. However, I think that France 374 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 1: and Germany know that over the past twenty years, not 375 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 1: just the past four years, there are fundamental differences between 376 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,879 Speaker 1: Europe and the US. The U S has more about 377 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:54,359 Speaker 1: China now containing China, cares more about pivoting to Asia, 378 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,880 Speaker 1: it has less. It has also more about domestic policy. 379 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 1: Defending Europe and and paying for European security is less 380 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 1: high a priority. And if you throw in things like 381 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: tech policy, the role of the dollar versus the role 382 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:14,119 Speaker 1: of the euro, more kind of geoeconomic world, then I 383 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 1: think these will tell you that that the Europeans are 384 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,440 Speaker 1: not going to just sit around for the next four 385 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 1: years and and assume that everything will just revert to 386 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 1: how it was before Trump. So leonel beyond sort of 387 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 1: you know, better relations with multilateral and trans national organizations 388 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,200 Speaker 1: and also treaties of course, like the Paris Treaty Beyond that, 389 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 1: what could the European Union use the United States for? So? 390 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,159 Speaker 1: I think the big silver lining here is that China 391 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 1: is the priority that is shared by both Democrats and 392 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:54,919 Speaker 1: Republicans and even the EU. So I think that the 393 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,119 Speaker 1: EU as a trading block, that's where its power lies. 394 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: And I think the EU should move towards the US 395 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:06,199 Speaker 1: and Biden say, look, we can help really raise the 396 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 1: bar on for example, subsidies and unfair trade practices from China, 397 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,920 Speaker 1: but in return, they should encourage the US to let 398 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 1: you build its own institutions, take on more of its 399 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 1: defense responsibilities, and also become more economically assertive again against 400 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 1: Silicon Valley companies and defending the role of the EURO globally. 401 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 1: I think that could be a potential kind of trade 402 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:35,200 Speaker 1: because China looms so large in the American psyche. Yeah, 403 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: it's interesting because, as you say, China would be the 404 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 1: third party in the relationship at that point if there 405 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:42,640 Speaker 1: were to be, you know, a Joe Biden and European 406 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,920 Speaker 1: Union ally ship, if you like, what do you think 407 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 1: China would do in that scenario? Would China try to 408 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:53,000 Speaker 1: ally with everybody or would China try to play one 409 00:21:53,240 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 1: off the other well, I definitely think that China in 410 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 1: terms of trade is seeing more pressure everywhere. However, if 411 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,640 Speaker 1: you look at how China is reacting to, for example, 412 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen, you can you can clearly see a kind 413 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 1: of post COVID world happening, where again geopolitics and gew 414 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,879 Speaker 1: economics is even more important than it than it was before. 415 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 1: China may well tried to divide Europe as it always has, 416 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,919 Speaker 1: and it may succeed, but I really think that you 417 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,760 Speaker 1: as a whole realizes that it has a lot to 418 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:35,399 Speaker 1: gain from getting more tough on China defending its own market. 419 00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 1: Beyond looking to the United States and who is the 420 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 1: next president. Europe internally has plenty of problems, and one 421 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,119 Speaker 1: of the problems is that a lot of voters in 422 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 1: Europe are unhappy and there is a huge strain of 423 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:52,120 Speaker 1: populism which is only gaining steam in places like France 424 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:56,120 Speaker 1: and Eastern Europe and Italy and really you know, Britain, 425 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,119 Speaker 1: not that that's really Europe anymore, but there are so 426 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,880 Speaker 1: many countries these that are seeing unhappiness of the polls. 427 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 1: Do we suddenly see a shift in post post this 428 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,159 Speaker 1: election here in the US to watching very closely what 429 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 1: happens in Europe in terms of strife and you know, 430 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:18,400 Speaker 1: protests and difficulty and demonstrations. I'm honestly not sure we 431 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 1: we can extrapolate too much. I do think that Brexit 432 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 1: and Trump sort of arrived like a crash, and they 433 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 1: seem to be running out of steam. In that that 434 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 1: I see is as connected. However, a lot of the 435 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:36,479 Speaker 1: situations you describe are to do with many things, country 436 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 1: specific things, and and they probably are going to get 437 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,399 Speaker 1: worse again as a result of the economic inequality that 438 00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,919 Speaker 1: will take place after a COVID nineteen, given that the 439 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 1: second wave is still battering these countries. So I'm really 440 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,359 Speaker 1: not sure we can extrapolate that much. However, again, I 441 00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 1: do think that Europe and a more assertive Europe and 442 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,679 Speaker 1: a more integrated block is going to be seen as 443 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:02,159 Speaker 1: the answer to a lot of these issues by the 444 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:06,480 Speaker 1: governments very really, And we're out of time. But what 445 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,879 Speaker 1: happens to Angle America? How long more is she chancellor for? 446 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,440 Speaker 1: And who takes over? Oh? Well, this is this is 447 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 1: a big question. That the race to succeed her has begun, 448 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 1: and the trans Atlantic relationship is going to be part 449 00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:24,600 Speaker 1: of that. Again, I do think that Germany is going 450 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 1: to be less inclined to simply just take this constant 451 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 1: pro American stance and assume that everything we just go 452 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 1: on as before. I think France and Germany are going 453 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 1: to become a lot more aligned on this point that 454 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:40,439 Speaker 1: Europeans still off its own interest. Leonel, thank you so 455 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:43,200 Speaker 1: much for joining us today. It's always a fascinating conversation 456 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 1: with Lionel Lauren, who is a Bloomberg opinion and colonists 457 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,679 Speaker 1: typically covering Europe and France and European affairs for US, 458 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 1: and we thank him. Stay tuned next hour more election 459 00:24:54,359 --> 00:25:01,240 Speaker 1: count updates. Right, it is time to bring in Lauren Sour. 460 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: We love chatting with her. She knows everything about the 461 00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:08,160 Speaker 1: coronavirus and where the research is at, where the potential 462 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,439 Speaker 1: for vaccines is that, and so on. Lauren is now 463 00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:14,680 Speaker 1: Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine at John's Hopkins University, and 464 00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 1: we really thank her for giving us sometime. Lauren, we're 465 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 1: up to sid cases a day in the United States. 466 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:27,680 Speaker 1: How much further can we raise from here? Is this exponential? Yet? 467 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,679 Speaker 1: I think that's what it is on the top of 468 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,440 Speaker 1: everyone's mind right now. I mean, you know, to go 469 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:38,320 Speaker 1: from a hundred thousand for the first time, UM and 470 00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 1: then one day later have over a hundred and twenty 471 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:45,760 Speaker 1: thousand new infections. It's it's really really concerning to see, UM. 472 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,760 Speaker 1: And I think the fear is that we are seeing 473 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 1: exponential growth and we're not doing anything to change that. 474 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 1: You know, there's no new there's no new approaches to 475 00:25:56,000 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 1: lockdowns or um you know, uh, new strata to jus 476 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 1: for masking. There these these very basic public health interventions 477 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:06,720 Speaker 1: are not being pushed any harder than they were yesterday 478 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 1: or the day before, the day before that. And I think, um, 479 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 1: we're going to see the impact of that for a 480 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 1: long time to come. We're obviously, you know, several months 481 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 1: out from March when we didn't even know what we 482 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:20,679 Speaker 1: would need in in a case like a pandemic, and 483 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:22,639 Speaker 1: then we realized that we were short on PPE, we 484 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:25,399 Speaker 1: were short on you know, ventilators, we were short on 485 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:30,199 Speaker 1: hospital beds. Where are we now still short? Are there 486 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,959 Speaker 1: states where we're still short and and can other states 487 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,239 Speaker 1: helped or are we still at a loss for some 488 00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:39,920 Speaker 1: of these these these necessary items. I think we've made 489 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:44,240 Speaker 1: a lot of progress in ventilator access and in PPE. 490 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:48,359 Speaker 1: But we're moving back into respiratory virus season UM, and 491 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:50,800 Speaker 1: we're moving back into the winter where people will be 492 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 1: more indoors, will be on the other side of the 493 00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,680 Speaker 1: holidays soon enough, and we have the potential to see 494 00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:59,199 Speaker 1: UM an exceptional number of case growth across the United States. 495 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 1: You know, when we saw those UM severe resource constraints 496 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: and some reasons of the country, it was just that 497 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,720 Speaker 1: some regions of the country, some specific areas that were 498 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,280 Speaker 1: hardest hit. But the potential for places all across the 499 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,080 Speaker 1: country to be very hard hit and and need these 500 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:22,520 Speaker 1: surge capacity and resource scarce resource issues UM happen is 501 00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 1: more concerning because when it's just a few a few 502 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,719 Speaker 1: places in the country, you can move resources from one 503 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:30,440 Speaker 1: side of the country to the next. Right, you can 504 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,320 Speaker 1: borrow from a neighbor you can buy you know, a 505 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 1: neighboring state. You can't do that when everyone across the 506 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 1: country is experiencing resource constraints and bed capacity issues and 507 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:45,840 Speaker 1: personnel gaps. Yeah, it's terrifying. And on the personnel gaps, 508 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,440 Speaker 1: I mean hospitals have been under pressure and under strain 509 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:52,760 Speaker 1: because people have been putting off other kinds of you know, surgeries, 510 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,359 Speaker 1: elective surgeries and so on, and that's that's also causing 511 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,399 Speaker 1: health problems. We haven't even got to that still have 512 00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 1: to deal with coronavirus. But our hospitals staffed enough? Do 513 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,359 Speaker 1: they have enough funding? No? I think the answer to 514 00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:09,399 Speaker 1: those questions is just now. I think the staffing um 515 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:13,440 Speaker 1: has ramped up, and there's been some unique staff staffing 516 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 1: strategies that hospitals have implemented, but um, you know, nurses, 517 00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,800 Speaker 1: respiratory therapist positions. Um, we're going to need all these 518 00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,120 Speaker 1: an increase in all these staff to manage any increase 519 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,679 Speaker 1: in in search capacities. And that's just not in the hospitals. 520 00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:32,159 Speaker 1: That's in long term care facilities, that's in field hospitals, 521 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 1: that's in outpatient centers. When you see the volume of 522 00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 1: patients increase so significantly, we're going to need staffing and 523 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 1: resources to support all that. And we can't just borrow 524 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:47,680 Speaker 1: from other areas when all of the areas are affected. Yeah, 525 00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's pretty terrifying. Back in March and 526 00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,680 Speaker 1: I was in New York City. You know, after the 527 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 1: first couple of weeks, people were going around like zombies 528 00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 1: and I don't mean that in you know, any disrespectful 529 00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 1: way to those who were actually sick, but even healthy 530 00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,480 Speaker 1: people were so shell shocked from what was going on 531 00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:09,320 Speaker 1: and the thousands of deaths and just the pain. Are 532 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 1: we going to see that in certain areas of the country, 533 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 1: including New York again, Lauren, Yeah, I think we're all 534 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 1: very worried about that. I mean, you know, it's it's 535 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,760 Speaker 1: potentially the same experience, but with a much more exhausted 536 00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,600 Speaker 1: and much more overworked and much more overwhelmed UM workforce 537 00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 1: and so and and not just workforce, just community members, right, 538 00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 1: so everyone is experiencing this trauma together, um, and without 539 00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 1: the mitigating factors that we talked about in the beginning 540 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 1: of our conversation. UM, it's going to keep increasing and 541 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 1: people are going to continue to be affected, and we're 542 00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 1: going to continue to bear both the physical and emotional 543 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,360 Speaker 1: and mental health tool that this is going to enact 544 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,520 Speaker 1: on our population for years to come. I mean, UM, 545 00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 1: the healthcare workforce is absolutely exhausted, and to see no 546 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 1: end in sight and the cases increasing like this is 547 00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:59,080 Speaker 1: it has the potential to be really overwhelming. We have 548 00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,320 Speaker 1: to put strategy is in place to protect our health 549 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 1: care workers, not just physically um and in safety mechanisms, 550 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,880 Speaker 1: but also in their mental and emotional health. I can 551 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,880 Speaker 1: absolutely only imagine, Lauren, finally and briefly, if it is 552 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 1: Joe Biden who is designated the next president, does anything 553 00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 1: change in the coming months. I mean, you know, Ken, 554 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:22,400 Speaker 1: Joe Biden make any kind of a difference in terms 555 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:25,640 Speaker 1: of the policy, given that he would actually be president 556 00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:29,000 Speaker 1: until January. Yeah, I think he can begin to make 557 00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 1: the difference so that that concrete steps can be taken 558 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,760 Speaker 1: as soon as he takes the presidency of the Office 559 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 1: of the Presidency and um, I think the hope is 560 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,640 Speaker 1: just that there's no detrimental impact over the next few 561 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 1: months as the transition happens. But you can see him 562 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 1: already starting to build the teams with people that he's 563 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:50,120 Speaker 1: going to use to respond to the crisis that we're in. 564 00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,560 Speaker 1: So I think that there's good signs that he's going 565 00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 1: to implement as soon as he can, strategies to change 566 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 1: the course of the pandemic. But I think it is 567 00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 1: a little bit of a wait and see situation. Lauren. 568 00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:03,560 Speaker 1: Her thoughts are with you and your staff and everybody 569 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:07,280 Speaker 1: else who is battling this on every front. Laurence Sour 570 00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:12,280 Speaker 1: is Associated Professor of Emergency Medicine at Johns Hopkins University, 571 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,160 Speaker 1: and she joins US weekly and more than that, in fact, 572 00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:16,560 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg to give us updates on the situation on 573 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:22,200 Speaker 1: twenty six thousand cases. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. 574 00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts 575 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm 576 00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,080 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm 577 00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,720 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can 578 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,000 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio