Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew in Washington. As we embrace little Friday and
Speaker 2: watch a long train of cars make their way to
Speaker 2: the airport at the lawmakers or leaving and we don't
Speaker 2: have a lot to show for it here. We're going
Speaker 2: to get to that as we leave our conversation today
Speaker 2: with the latest polling from Bloomberg News in Morning Consult.
Speaker 2: It's our big story today and it's not great for
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. Trump pulls ahead in Michigan is the headline,
Speaker 2: and some troubling statistics inside this poll that we're going
Speaker 2: to talk about with Nancy Cook, involving not only the
Speaker 2: job that he's doing, but specifically the economy and the
Speaker 2: lack of support that we've been seeing among union members
Speaker 2: after he became the first president to walk the picket line.
Speaker 2: Raising a lot of questions today and so it's great
Speaker 2: to have Nancy Cook Bloomberg Senior national political correspondent at
Speaker 2: the table. Great to see you. You've been talking through
Speaker 2: this all day. What kind of ideas have you come
Speaker 2: up with here? Specifically, we're talking Michigan again, a state
Speaker 2: where he should be outperforming for the investment of personal time,
Speaker 2: energy and money that he has made in the UAW,
Speaker 2: in the auto industry, in organized labor, what's happening.
Speaker 3: Also, there's universities in Michigan. I mean, all of these
Speaker 3: places in Michigan should be like pockets of support for Biden.
Speaker 3: And what we saw in the latest Bloomberg News Morning
Speaker 3: Console poll is that Trump is now a head of
Speaker 3: Biden in Michigan. He is actually a head of Biden
Speaker 3: in all seven of the swinging states that we pulled.
Speaker 3: And this is the third month that we've done the poll.
Speaker 3: So in the past the two of them were tied
Speaker 3: in Michigan. Now Trump is also ahead in Michigan. And
Speaker 3: so what this shows to me is that, you know,
Speaker 3: we have three months of data that now show Trump
Speaker 3: is really beating Biden, and it's really cementing the idea
Speaker 3: that this narrator of Bidenomics and everything that the Biden
Speaker 3: White House doing is not taking hold, and part of problem.
Speaker 3: Biden's problem is coming from within his own coalition, which
Speaker 3: we can talk more about young people, black voters. The
Speaker 3: support is really.
Speaker 2: Cratering suburban women, showing weakness for How do we rationalize
Speaker 2: that when we've seen Democrats outperform in midterms and in
Speaker 2: special elections since the end of Roe v.
Speaker 1: Wade.
Speaker 2: That was supposed to take suburban women away from Donald Trump,
Speaker 2: wasn't it.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 3: I think that the abortion issue is still very potent
Speaker 3: for Democrats and it's still probably their best bet for
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four and the bright spot for them. But
Speaker 3: we see a lot of voters who are upset about
Speaker 3: Biden's handling of the Israel Moss War. That's what young
Speaker 3: voters say. We see a lot of people who are
Speaker 3: upset about the state of the economy and inflation, the
Speaker 3: rising prices. People are upset about immigration and crime. You know,
Speaker 3: it depends on the group, but all of these negative
Speaker 3: messages are resonating with voters now, and people really trust Trump,
Speaker 3: particularly on the economy, to handle almost every part of
Speaker 3: the economy, housing, interest rates, you know, we pulled on
Speaker 3: all these different things. Yeah, the only economic issue that
Speaker 3: these voters that we spoke to trusted on Biden more
Speaker 3: with was the personal debt, so things like dealing with
Speaker 3: credit card balances and.
Speaker 2: Things like that supposed to student loans.
Speaker 3: Right, even student loans. You know, Biden is not getting
Speaker 3: credit for. People think that he's not doing enough, or
Speaker 3: they just don't even really they're not even really aware
Speaker 3: of what he has done.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's so sort of a damned if you
Speaker 2: do a type of situation that the stock market is
Speaker 2: at an all time high, this would have been tweet
Speaker 2: heaven in the Trump white House that you covered, and
Speaker 2: he even made the point, how can you impeach me?
Speaker 2: A lot of folks are retweeting this from twenty nineteen
Speaker 2: when the stock market's at at all time high. Joe
Speaker 2: Biden's got the same thing to say, but nobody associates
Speaker 2: it with him.
Speaker 3: I think that this White House has always had a
Speaker 3: problem just selling its own record and accomplishments. You know,
Speaker 3: Biden has done many, many things that have made progressive
Speaker 3: of voters and even some centrist voters very happy. You know,
Speaker 3: he passed sweeping packages through Congress, including the Infrastructure Law,
Speaker 3: the Inflation Reduction Act. It had money for a bunch
Speaker 3: of green technologies. But his White House has just not
Speaker 3: been able to sort of convince Americans of his record.
Speaker 3: That's been real sore spot for them throughout his presidency,
Speaker 3: and I think that we're seeing that really come to
Speaker 3: fruition as we head into twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: We're going to talk with Nick Ackerman coming up next
Speaker 2: about Donald Trump's legal problems and Joe Biden's for that matter.
Speaker 2: But this hasn't made a dent in the polls for indictments.
Speaker 2: We see him in court every other day, in the lobby,
Speaker 2: yelling at reporters. This has not had any detrimental effect
Speaker 2: on his standing.
Speaker 3: It hasn't so far. I mean, but two things on that. One,
Speaker 3: It has not affected his standing with Republican primary voters
Speaker 3: at all. They sort of view all of these different
Speaker 3: court cases as a sham. If anything that has mobilized
Speaker 3: and cause his base to coalesce around him, I do.
Speaker 3: I think that that calculus may change a bit if
Speaker 3: Trump is indeed the Republican nominee as we largely expect
Speaker 3: him to be, and the focus is now mostly on
Speaker 3: Trump and Biden. I'm not sure that independent voters and
Speaker 3: sort of moderate voters are necessarily going to want to
Speaker 3: support Trump with these legal challenges, and that is the
Speaker 3: big challenge for him heading into next year.
Speaker 2: Fascinating stuff and you can read a lot more about it,
Speaker 2: of course, on the terminal and online at Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 2: Nancy Cook, it's great to see you. Love to talk
Speaker 2: to you next about the ad blitz. I guess that's
Speaker 2: coming in Iowa for Donald Trump, because that's the next
Speaker 2: leg in the story. Isn't it great to see at
Speaker 2: the table? Nancy. Thank you. As we turn our attention
Speaker 2: now to Donald Trump's legal situation which we were just
Speaker 2: referring to. Now the Supreme Court involved, which is pretty
Speaker 2: remarkable at this point, as we wait for the Scotus
Speaker 2: to weigh in on this idea of presidential immunity and
Speaker 2: a challenge to the obstruction charge that he and January
Speaker 2: sixth rioters are facing. The court may wait till June
Speaker 2: and likely will to weigh in on this stuff, and
Speaker 2: that trial. Jack Smith's trial is supposed to start in March.
Speaker 2: Maybe not. Nick Ackerman is the man we like to
Speaker 2: talk to when we need to call a lawyer on
Speaker 2: this story. Of course, the founder of the law office
Speaker 2: of Nick Ackerman, former assistant US Attorney, former assistant special
Speaker 2: Watergate prosecutor. It's great to see mister Ackerman, welcome back.
Speaker 2: This is the type of story. You put these two
Speaker 2: together and you see it being brought to the Supreme Court. Now,
Speaker 2: why people say, you know what, nothing's ever going to
Speaker 2: happen to this guy. Do you think this delays the
Speaker 2: trial that's set to begin in March.
Speaker 4: There's no reason why it should. The Special counsel has
Speaker 4: asked for expedited hearing. The Supreme Court is open to that.
Speaker 4: They've ordered Donald Trump to submit his papers by the
Speaker 4: twentieth of December. I think there's going to be an
Speaker 4: oral argument shortly thereafter on this issue. This could all
Speaker 4: very well be settled and decide by the Supreme Court
Speaker 4: by mid mid January, and this case will just move
Speaker 4: along in March. I mean, I think that's what's going
Speaker 4: to happen. I remember back in my Watergate days when
Speaker 4: people were saying, well, Nixon has three members on the
Speaker 4: Supreme Court that he's appointed, They're all going to come
Speaker 4: his way. It didn't happen. It was a to zip
Speaker 4: in terms of a decision, And I think you're going
Speaker 4: to see the same thing here.
Speaker 2: Well, there are two separate things, and I want to
Speaker 2: delineate between them. One is the justices considering Jack Smith's request.
Speaker 2: He asked for this to be clear to fast track
Speaker 2: consideration of Donald Trump's claim on presidential immunity. That's something
Speaker 2: that you are intimately familiar with.
Speaker 1: Neck.
Speaker 2: The other one has to do with the obstruction charge
Speaker 2: and whether the way this is written, it's a law
Speaker 2: that follows the Enron scandal, and it looks like, depending
Speaker 2: on how you read it, that it might only apply
Speaker 2: to document tampering. Either of these could invalidate part of
Speaker 2: the case against Trump. You don't see the court ruling
Speaker 2: that way. Is that how I understand it.
Speaker 4: I don't see them ruling that way at all. In fact,
Speaker 4: the case, the statute that you're talking about, refers to
Speaker 4: much more than document tampering. It really goes to all
Speaker 4: kinds of obstruction, including an obstruction of Congress. So I
Speaker 4: don't see that a difference here, But that particular issue
Speaker 4: probably won't be decided until much later. Not that that
Speaker 4: will make a difference because a number of people have
Speaker 4: already been convicted of obstructing Congress. It's a question for
Speaker 4: the Supreme Court. They'll respond to that issue in due course.
Speaker 4: It'll go to trial and due course against Donald Trump,
Speaker 4: and if it continues as an appeal, it'll be part
Speaker 4: of Donald Trump's appeal from a conviction, assuming he's convicted
Speaker 4: of the obstruction count. But keep in mind, there are
Speaker 4: two other counts that he's been charged with in the
Speaker 4: election interference trial. So yes, that particular count is not
Speaker 4: the be all, end all of the prosecution against Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Are you still of the mind and correct me if
Speaker 2: I'm not remembering this the right way, that that will
Speaker 2: be the first trial to begin in the first to
Speaker 2: end Jack Smith's election tampering case.
Speaker 4: Assuming that the Supreme Court acts quickly, which I think
Speaker 4: they will, will be the first case. I mean, already
Speaker 4: we have a January eighteenth date that starts the process
Speaker 4: of selecting a jury in this case. So I don't
Speaker 4: see this slowing down. I think the Supreme Court realizes
Speaker 4: that they've got to make this decision. It's important. This
Speaker 4: is an extraordinary circumstance, and this is one of those
Speaker 4: situations where the Government's going to be able to bypass
Speaker 4: the DC circuit and go straight to the Supreme Court
Speaker 4: and get a pretty quick decision. It is really not
Speaker 4: a very very difficult issue. The DC Circuit has already
Speaker 4: spoken on it in terms of the civil case cases
Speaker 4: that were brought against Donald Trump. I don't think there's
Speaker 4: any question that running for president is not part of
Speaker 4: presidential duties. It doesn't come under the subject of presidential immunity,
Speaker 4: and I think this is going to be a fairly
Speaker 4: simple issue for the Supreme Court to deal with.
Speaker 2: Talking with former Watergate prosecutor Nick Ackerman about the former president,
Speaker 2: let's move to the current president, mister Ackerman. This took
Speaker 2: place yesterday in the House of Representatives.
Speaker 5: On this vote, the a's are two twenty one and
Speaker 5: then a's are two twelve.
Speaker 2: The resolution is adopted.
Speaker 6: That Objecson, the motion to reconsider is laid.
Speaker 2: On the table. The final act, it seems, of this
Speaker 2: House before they head home, codifying, formalizing, making official, and
Speaker 2: impeachment inquiry that actually was already underway by direction of
Speaker 2: the leadership in the House. Nick. There are a lot
Speaker 2: of questions after we saw Joe Biden's son Hunter up
Speaker 2: there yesterday at the podium, A lot of questions about
Speaker 2: how they will prove a link between his bad behavior
Speaker 2: and the actions of the current president of the United States.
Speaker 2: Where's the evidence.
Speaker 4: A number of years to do that, and they haven't
Speaker 4: done it. There doesn't appear to be any link between
Speaker 4: what he's done with his taxes, what he did with
Speaker 4: the gun charge. None of that has anything to do
Speaker 4: with Joe Biden. This is a purely political act by
Speaker 4: the House Republicans done at the behest of Donald Trump
Speaker 4: to try in some way tar Joe Biden. The fact
Speaker 4: of the matter is there's no evidence. There is no
Speaker 4: evidence they developed. During the entire time that Donald Trump
Speaker 4: was in office and everyone knew about the Hunter Biden situation,
Speaker 4: they never came up with anything, and there's no reason
Speaker 4: to think they're suddenly going to come up with anything
Speaker 4: new at this point.
Speaker 2: Well, I'm confused, and that's not unusual for me. But
Speaker 2: the chair of the Oversight Committee says that he's going
Speaker 2: to hold Hunter Biden in contempt. The chair of the
Speaker 2: Judiciary Committee said this as well, for not showing up
Speaker 2: to testify. Albeit they wanted him behind closed doors, but
Speaker 2: he showed up and said I'm here and I will
Speaker 2: testify in public. Does that count as being a no show.
Speaker 2: How would you be held in contempt for showing up?
Speaker 4: You can't. You can't be held in contempt. I mean,
Speaker 4: can you imagine this going before a jury and Hunter
Speaker 4: Biden's lawyer said, standing up and saying he came here,
Speaker 4: he honored the subpoena, was willing to do it, but
Speaker 4: he wasn't going to do it behind closed doors. That's
Speaker 4: just asking for an acquittal on a contempt charge. I
Speaker 4: just don't see that going anywhere.
Speaker 2: Well, we've settled that. I guess what will be the
Speaker 2: need then? Is there going to be a need for
Speaker 2: a so called smoking gun of piece of paper that
Speaker 2: shows the connection here for this to move to an
Speaker 2: impeachment trial.
Speaker 4: The only way this moves to an impeachment trial is
Speaker 4: if they can show some violation by the president that
Speaker 4: he engaged in a high crime or a misdemeanor. They
Speaker 4: don't even have a parking ticket against him at this point.
Speaker 4: So I just don't see where this is going. It's
Speaker 4: just going to be another grand standing play by the
Speaker 4: Republican Congress trying to raise doubts about Joe Biden when
Speaker 4: there's no there there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you don't think it gets to the Senate.
Speaker 4: It'll never get to the Senate. I can't imagine this
Speaker 4: getting to the Senate. I mean it could in the
Speaker 4: fact that you get all the same Republicans who wound
Speaker 4: up voting for this formal hearing based on what Donald
Speaker 4: Trump wanted. I suppose they could all do the same
Speaker 4: thing and bring an impeachment against Joe Biden. But they've
Speaker 4: got to have some facts. You've got to have a charge,
Speaker 4: you got to say you did something wrong, and like
Speaker 4: I said, right now, they don't have a parking ticket
Speaker 4: to charge against them.
Speaker 2: It's good to see again Nick Ackerman with us here
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg's Sound On, a voice of experience here as
Speaker 2: we bring you conversations with insiders in Washington who've been
Speaker 2: there every day. On this program, you're listening to the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Sound On podcast.
Speaker 1: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Hey find us on YouTube watch Charlie Pellett do his
Speaker 2: thing join us here in the studio. Any day we're
Speaker 2: on the air. Go to YouTube search Bloomberg Global News.
Speaker 2: You'll find my friend Kaylee Lyons, who just came into
Speaker 2: the studio here for part two of this broadcast. We've
Speaker 2: got got some news. You're going to help me kind
Speaker 2: of unpack all of this because we heard from Chuck
Speaker 2: Schumer a little bit earlier today on the floor dismayed
Speaker 2: that everyone was going home. And I've been sitting here
Speaker 2: for the last hour talking about everyone going home, and
Speaker 2: some people are. But let's listen to the majority leader
Speaker 2: because it sounds like, well, he seems to think they're
Speaker 2: onto something in these border negotiations. Here he is.
Speaker 7: Yesterday we had another round of productive conversations and there
Speaker 7: was more progress, but of course there's more work to do,
Speaker 7: and we're going to keep at it and keep at it.
Speaker 7: Last night I falled Klocher and a couple of nominations
Speaker 7: to the federal bench in the Department of Justice, with
Speaker 7: possible votes on these nominees as soon as tomorrow. To
Speaker 7: my Republican colleagues who have set action on the border
Speaker 7: as urgent, let's keep working to find a solution instead
Speaker 7: of rushing for the exits. If Republicans are serious about
Speaker 7: getting something done, they should not be so eager to
Speaker 7: go home. This may be our last best chance to
Speaker 7: get this legislation done.
Speaker 2: Now that was this morning. It doesn't sound like somebody
Speaker 2: who's about to pack his bags here. He's even got
Speaker 2: a couple nominations to deal with. Yea, So are they
Speaker 2: staying overtime?
Speaker 8: We're about to find out. The Majority leader is going
Speaker 8: to go back to the floor and announce what the
Speaker 8: schedule is going to look like. But there's been reports
Speaker 8: that they're going to do some folts tonight. Then they'll
Speaker 8: come back Monday and try to keep working. The thing is, though,
Speaker 8: is if the Senate does stay overtime they reach a deal,
Speaker 8: that's great. The House is still gone.
Speaker 2: Yeah right, So just ask Byron Donald's. He was standing
Speaker 2: outside the House looking across the other side of the Capital,
Speaker 2: asked about this today.
Speaker 5: The Senate is crazy. The Senate wants to spend more
Speaker 5: money than they voted for back in May, and now
Speaker 5: they want to spend more money on top of that.
Speaker 5: I mean, like, what are we doing. Joe Biden signed
Speaker 5: in the law the spending levels they want to now
Speaker 5: spend more money. So the Senate wants to break the deal.
Speaker 8: For what it's worth, there were plenty in the Republican
Speaker 8: party who also didn't like that deal, who want to
Speaker 8: spend less money.
Speaker 1: Right, So.
Speaker 2: Does that sound like someone who's ready to avoid a
Speaker 2: government shut down the beginning of next year. If you
Speaker 2: ask Kakim Jeffreys, he'd tell you the only good thing
Speaker 2: that happened this year was Democrats in the House. Here's
Speaker 2: the leader, who, by the way, held a year end
Speaker 2: news conference. The speaker did not, so maybe he's coming back.
Speaker 2: I don't know. Here's the Democratic leader.
Speaker 9: Anything productive that has happened in this Congress, which is
Speaker 9: not much because of the extreme maga Republicans, has occurred
Speaker 9: because House Democrats have led the way.
Speaker 2: And so we wait to find out what the schedule
Speaker 2: is going to be. Looks like the House going by
Speaker 2: by though. Yeah no, if we get some movement on
Speaker 2: the border, we'll let you know. It is not the
Speaker 2: border that appears to be driving numbers, because we could
Speaker 2: bring any number of polls out on that. But the
Speaker 2: new Bloomberg News Morning consult swing state polls looking to
Speaker 2: at the economy. We've talked about Bidenomics We've talked about
Speaker 2: it with Jared Bernstein on the air, trying to figure
Speaker 2: out the disconnect. But Kaylee, these numbers go beyond disconnect.
Speaker 2: Joe Biden's losing to Donald Trump among suburban women yep,
Speaker 2: and among Union voters yep. I'm scratching my head. This
Speaker 2: is Michigan. This is the guy who walked the picket line.
Speaker 8: Yeah, it doesn't seem like it really did that much
Speaker 8: his support for the UAW And it's not just those
Speaker 8: two groups either. Joe young people eighteen to thirty four.
Speaker 8: Increasingly he is losing their support, and all of that
Speaker 8: paints a not so great picture for the current president
Speaker 8: when this is a state that could be absolutely critical
Speaker 8: in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: I bet they're looking at this pull in the campaign.
Speaker 2: And I know Eli Yoakley as he helped us put
Speaker 2: it together political analysts that morning consult is with us
Speaker 2: right now on Bloomberg's sound on Eli, It's good to
Speaker 2: see you. This is a month three that we've been
Speaker 2: working on this together. So I believe that, based on
Speaker 2: the scientific method, is officially a trend here, and it's
Speaker 2: not good, is it.
Speaker 6: You know, I used to work with the political analyst
Speaker 6: Nathan Gonzalez at Roll Call, and when we saw three
Speaker 6: things happening on the campaign, Charlie, we'd always say three
Speaker 6: is a trend. And that's what we're seeing here. I mean,
Speaker 6: in every successive survey we've seen of these seven key
Speaker 6: key states to the twenty twenty four elections, Joe Biden
Speaker 6: has been underperforming. And in every survey it stands out
Speaker 6: that it's his base that's the problem. It's young people,
Speaker 6: it's black voters. If you ask people who voted for
Speaker 6: Joe Biden in twenty twenty if they're going to do
Speaker 6: it again, they're less likely to say so than Donald
Speaker 6: Trump's supporters. Clearly, he needs to rev up his own supporters.
Speaker 6: And none of this stuff is breaking through. Be it
Speaker 6: his legislative accomplishments that are legitimate, be it Donald Trump's
Speaker 6: severe criminal problems and democracy challenges that bother his base,
Speaker 6: or be it the fact that these economic problems are slowing.
Speaker 6: He's got a major problem, and none of his messaging
Speaker 6: on any of these things is breaking.
Speaker 5: Through to the Marria.
Speaker 8: So, eli, is it that Biden is losing right now
Speaker 8: more so than it is Trump is winning? If that
Speaker 8: makes sense?
Speaker 6: Yeah, probably. I mean, if you're not able to pull
Speaker 6: all of your supporters from last time and your other
Speaker 6: and your opponent is doing better at that, I think
Speaker 6: that suggests that you're losing. And you know, I think
Speaker 6: the one thing that we should be thinking about is
Speaker 6: everybody can say this is early, these are successive, this
Speaker 6: is not changing. But we haven't really seen the campaign
Speaker 6: litigated yet. I think Grig Davis mentioned this earlier in
Speaker 6: your show. I mean, where is the Biden ad campaign,
Speaker 6: Where is the Biden super pac attacking Donald Trump? Where
Speaker 6: are any of these typical things we see in American
Speaker 6: politics to try to tear down your opponent. The most
Speaker 6: energizing thing for a base is going after your rivals.
Speaker 6: And you know, I think probably because of his legitimate
Speaker 6: concerns about looking like he's interfering with the Justice Department,
Speaker 6: I think the President has been scared of going after
Speaker 6: Trump on some of these legal issues. But you know,
Speaker 6: he's got an economic case he could start making to
Speaker 6: the American people. It's just not breaking through because they're
Speaker 6: not quite buying it. I mean, one of the most
Speaker 6: interesting things that we saw in this survey is good
Speaker 6: chunks of swing state voters still see prizes as increasing.
Speaker 6: Despite all the reports we've seen that it's getting better,
Speaker 6: We're starting to see the share of voters in some
Speaker 6: of these states that say they see prices as increasing
Speaker 6: decline since October. But it's still clear clear majorities see
Speaker 6: inflation as a big problem in their lives.
Speaker 2: A little context on Michigan. Joe Biden won that state
Speaker 2: beat Donald Trump in twenty by one hundred and fifty
Speaker 2: four thousand votes. It was really close in twenties. I mean,
Speaker 2: that is pretty close. In twenty sixteen, Donald Trump won
Speaker 2: Michigan by just under eleven thousand votes. Eli, can you
Speaker 2: speak to the not only the close nature of what's
Speaker 2: happening here in Michigan, but how important that state will
Speaker 2: be among the seven we're watching to decide the next president.
Speaker 6: It's could be very important, and I think that what
Speaker 6: happens in Mission it's going to be reflective with some
Speaker 6: of these other states, such as like Wisconsin up in
Speaker 6: the same area. All of these states were really close,
Speaker 6: and all of these states margins are going to matter
Speaker 6: a lot. I think that's why you've seen the President
Speaker 6: and his campaign so concerned about some of these third
Speaker 6: party contenders in the wings. The good news for him
Speaker 6: on the third party contenders at this point still, as
Speaker 6: we've seen in the previous surveys, is they're not yet
Speaker 6: pulling any more support than from Biden than they are
Speaker 6: from Donald Trump. But you know, Michigan stands out as
Speaker 6: one of those states that has a clear labor union population.
Speaker 6: That these are working class voters that he needs across
Speaker 6: the country to come out and support his campaign, and
Speaker 6: right now they're just not there in the numbers that
Speaker 6: he needs them to be.
Speaker 8: It's interesting when looking at this polling across all seven
Speaker 8: of these swing states. Obviously we know the economy's problem
Speaker 8: matic for Biden. It has been consistently voters by and
Speaker 8: large in these swing states trust Donald Trump's handling of
Speaker 8: the economy more so than Biden's. What's interesting, though, is
Speaker 8: also swing state voters had a more favorable view of
Speaker 8: their own local economies than of the national economy as
Speaker 8: that whole. As a whole, ELI is that telling in
Speaker 8: some way? Does that suggest that maybe it's not as
Speaker 8: bad for Biden as maybe it looks at the top
Speaker 8: line level.
Speaker 6: I think one of the other things we saw in
Speaker 6: the survey was that not a lot of folks are
Speaker 6: worried about jobs. I think that's whenever you think about
Speaker 6: your local economy, you're like, where can I go to work?
Speaker 6: Inflation is clearly a macroeconomic problem, and it looks like
Speaker 6: the American people are smart enough to realize that it's
Speaker 6: a national issue, that the economy is a bigger problem nationwide.
Speaker 6: Maybe we'll watch this as we move forward. I think
Speaker 6: continue asking that maybe that'll start translating upward. But you know,
Speaker 6: I think the American people are blaming Joe Biden for
Speaker 6: the state of the national economy. They're not blaming their
Speaker 6: mayor for inflation and the costs of milk. Right, this
Speaker 6: is something that is a national problem that lands on
Speaker 6: the president's shoulders.
Speaker 2: I'll tell you, I wonder your thoughts on timing. Eli.
Speaker 2: We hear in one ear that's a year out, don't
Speaker 2: pay attention to these polls. We also hear that state
Speaker 2: poles are critical at this point because the national polls
Speaker 2: don't paint the picture. I guess what I'm getting at
Speaker 2: is not just what should we take seriously because obviously
Speaker 2: we're invested in this year at Bloomberg News in morning console,
Speaker 2: But how much time does Joe Biden have to write
Speaker 2: the ship.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 6: First of all, they do pay attention to these polls,
Speaker 6: because you see the White House talking about poles every
Speaker 6: single day.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 6: The other thing, the national polls, even a lot of
Speaker 6: the same trends we're saying in the swing states are
Speaker 6: being reflected at the national level. Be it Joe Biden's
Speaker 6: base issues, especially these concerns among black and young voters.
Speaker 6: You know, if the American people traditionally start tuning into
Speaker 6: the campaigns, we get closer to it. Once we could
Speaker 6: pass the Republican primary, there is an official Republican nominee.
Speaker 6: That's a pretty good moment when this stuff solidifies. But
Speaker 6: at this point in the campaign, the Joe Biden campaign
Speaker 6: has all the time in the world to paint it,
Speaker 6: to try to rebuild the president's image. That was one
Speaker 6: of the greatest things he wanted, The greatest assets he
Speaker 6: had in the twenty twenty campaign was the fact that
Speaker 6: people just liked the guy. They might have thought he
Speaker 6: was too old, he might have had other issues with him,
Speaker 6: but they liked him. And it was a perhaps a
Speaker 6: comparison to the incompany the Oval Office at the time.
Speaker 6: This is a moment where the Biden campaign could be
Speaker 6: spending time trying to rebuild the president's image. The problem
Speaker 6: is going to a Maryland NIH facility is not going
Speaker 6: to break through to the American people when we want
Speaker 6: to talk about drug process. That's going to take a
Speaker 6: concerted effort from his campaign, from his allies, spending money
Speaker 6: on TV in these key states to try to rebuild
Speaker 6: the president's reputation.
Speaker 8: Well, the president has some reputation problems. The former president
Speaker 8: does as well. As we've seen consistently in polling, there
Speaker 8: is a large chunk of the American electorate who would
Speaker 8: like neither of them to be the nominees for the
Speaker 8: Democratic and Republican Party. And something else I wanted to
Speaker 8: mention from this poll ELI thirteen percent of swing state
Speaker 8: voters said they were very likely to consider supporting a
Speaker 8: candidate from a new political party. What about that factor?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think that figure is pretty close
Speaker 6: to the level of support we're seeing for the various
Speaker 6: third party contenators we've named in these surveys at the
Speaker 6: state level. At this point, both President Biden and for
Speaker 6: President Trump stand to lose about the same with those
Speaker 6: candidates names thrown into the mix. I'm not sure that
Speaker 6: at this point they're having a huge impact. But you
Speaker 6: mentioned Michigan, You mentioned these close margins. That's something that
Speaker 6: surveys like this aren't going to be able to pick
Speaker 6: up a few thousand votes here and there that could
Speaker 6: decide this thing. One thing that I noticed going through
Speaker 6: some of the numbers is just the fact that Robert F.
Speaker 6: Kennedy Junior's popularity has been improving among swing Saint voters
Speaker 6: fans as they get to know who he is. That's
Speaker 6: something that I think both of the Trump's campaign and
Speaker 6: Biden's campaign are going to be keeping a close eye
Speaker 6: on as we move forward in this race. If they
Speaker 6: get vallid.
Speaker 2: Access, the conventional wisdom is that RFK Junior would take
Speaker 2: votes away from Donald Trump, Cornell West, Jill Stein take
Speaker 2: votes away from Joe Biden. Is that right, Eli? Do
Speaker 2: they cancel each other out?
Speaker 6: It looks like they're canceling each other out at this point.
Speaker 6: The only the only caveat that I would add though,
Speaker 6: is like a few votes here and there could shake
Speaker 6: the whole thing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've certainly seen that in a lot of these states. Kayley,
Speaker 2: if this came down to ten thousand votes in Michigan
Speaker 2: the way it did in twenty sixteen. This poll is
Speaker 2: something we're going to look back at.
Speaker 8: Yeah, absolutely, And of course we'll continue to do this
Speaker 8: polling and we'll keep talking to Eli.
Speaker 2: About this is monthly Eli through the cycle.
Speaker 6: Right yeah, wait, yep, absolutely, strap in.
Speaker 2: Appreciate your coming to see us. Yeah, we're we're fastening
Speaker 2: our straps as always with Eliyoakley from Morning Consul to
Speaker 2: our partners here at the Bloomberg News Swing State Poll headquarters.
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