1
00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

2
00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,520
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

3
00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,719
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

4
00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,800
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

5
00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:17,280
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm

6
00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,720
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew in Washington. As we embrace little Friday and

7
00:00:20,800 --> 00:00:23,079
Speaker 2: watch a long train of cars make their way to

8
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:25,360
Speaker 2: the airport at the lawmakers or leaving and we don't

9
00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:26,799
Speaker 2: have a lot to show for it here. We're going

10
00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,400
Speaker 2: to get to that as we leave our conversation today

11
00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:32,320
Speaker 2: with the latest polling from Bloomberg News in Morning Consult.

12
00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:34,280
Speaker 2: It's our big story today and it's not great for

13
00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:37,480
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. Trump pulls ahead in Michigan is the headline,

14
00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:40,320
Speaker 2: and some troubling statistics inside this poll that we're going

15
00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:43,479
Speaker 2: to talk about with Nancy Cook, involving not only the

16
00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,080
Speaker 2: job that he's doing, but specifically the economy and the

17
00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:49,240
Speaker 2: lack of support that we've been seeing among union members

18
00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,839
Speaker 2: after he became the first president to walk the picket line.

19
00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,720
Speaker 2: Raising a lot of questions today and so it's great

20
00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:59,040
Speaker 2: to have Nancy Cook Bloomberg Senior national political correspondent at

21
00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:01,480
Speaker 2: the table. Great to see you. You've been talking through

22
00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:05,520
Speaker 2: this all day. What kind of ideas have you come

23
00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:09,839
Speaker 2: up with here? Specifically, we're talking Michigan again, a state

24
00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:14,000
Speaker 2: where he should be outperforming for the investment of personal time,

25
00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,160
Speaker 2: energy and money that he has made in the UAW,

26
00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:20,680
Speaker 2: in the auto industry, in organized labor, what's happening.

27
00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:23,720
Speaker 3: Also, there's universities in Michigan. I mean, all of these

28
00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:27,959
Speaker 3: places in Michigan should be like pockets of support for Biden.

29
00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:30,640
Speaker 3: And what we saw in the latest Bloomberg News Morning

30
00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,800
Speaker 3: Console poll is that Trump is now a head of

31
00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:37,000
Speaker 3: Biden in Michigan. He is actually a head of Biden

32
00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:40,000
Speaker 3: in all seven of the swinging states that we pulled.

33
00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,560
Speaker 3: And this is the third month that we've done the poll.

34
00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:44,560
Speaker 3: So in the past the two of them were tied

35
00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:48,480
Speaker 3: in Michigan. Now Trump is also ahead in Michigan. And

36
00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:51,720
Speaker 3: so what this shows to me is that, you know,

37
00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:54,160
Speaker 3: we have three months of data that now show Trump

38
00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:59,279
Speaker 3: is really beating Biden, and it's really cementing the idea

39
00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,440
Speaker 3: that this narrator of Bidenomics and everything that the Biden

40
00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,880
Speaker 3: White House doing is not taking hold, and part of problem.

41
00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:09,239
Speaker 3: Biden's problem is coming from within his own coalition, which

42
00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:13,320
Speaker 3: we can talk more about young people, black voters. The

43
00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:14,839
Speaker 3: support is really.

44
00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:20,639
Speaker 2: Cratering suburban women, showing weakness for How do we rationalize

45
00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:25,720
Speaker 2: that when we've seen Democrats outperform in midterms and in

46
00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:27,560
Speaker 2: special elections since the end of Roe v.

47
00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:27,839
Speaker 1: Wade.

48
00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,680
Speaker 2: That was supposed to take suburban women away from Donald Trump,

49
00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:31,040
Speaker 2: wasn't it.

50
00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:31,440
Speaker 4: Well.

51
00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:34,320
Speaker 3: I think that the abortion issue is still very potent

52
00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:38,160
Speaker 3: for Democrats and it's still probably their best bet for

53
00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:40,920
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four and the bright spot for them. But

54
00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:43,840
Speaker 3: we see a lot of voters who are upset about

55
00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:46,919
Speaker 3: Biden's handling of the Israel Moss War. That's what young

56
00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:49,200
Speaker 3: voters say. We see a lot of people who are

57
00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:51,639
Speaker 3: upset about the state of the economy and inflation, the

58
00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:55,680
Speaker 3: rising prices. People are upset about immigration and crime. You know,

59
00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,320
Speaker 3: it depends on the group, but all of these negative

60
00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:02,960
Speaker 3: messages are resonating with voters now, and people really trust Trump,

61
00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:06,520
Speaker 3: particularly on the economy, to handle almost every part of

62
00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:09,520
Speaker 3: the economy, housing, interest rates, you know, we pulled on

63
00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,520
Speaker 3: all these different things. Yeah, the only economic issue that

64
00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:16,080
Speaker 3: these voters that we spoke to trusted on Biden more

65
00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:18,800
Speaker 3: with was the personal debt, so things like dealing with

66
00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:19,960
Speaker 3: credit card balances and.

67
00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:21,799
Speaker 2: Things like that supposed to student loans.

68
00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,320
Speaker 3: Right, even student loans. You know, Biden is not getting

69
00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:27,800
Speaker 3: credit for. People think that he's not doing enough, or

70
00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:29,760
Speaker 3: they just don't even really they're not even really aware

71
00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:30,400
Speaker 3: of what he has done.

72
00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:30,640
Speaker 4: Well.

73
00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:32,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's so sort of a damned if you

74
00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,960
Speaker 2: do a type of situation that the stock market is

75
00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,680
Speaker 2: at an all time high, this would have been tweet

76
00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:41,800
Speaker 2: heaven in the Trump white House that you covered, and

77
00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:43,560
Speaker 2: he even made the point, how can you impeach me?

78
00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:45,480
Speaker 2: A lot of folks are retweeting this from twenty nineteen

79
00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:47,800
Speaker 2: when the stock market's at at all time high. Joe

80
00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:50,080
Speaker 2: Biden's got the same thing to say, but nobody associates

81
00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:50,560
Speaker 2: it with him.

82
00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:53,080
Speaker 3: I think that this White House has always had a

83
00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:56,600
Speaker 3: problem just selling its own record and accomplishments. You know,

84
00:03:56,640 --> 00:04:00,000
Speaker 3: Biden has done many, many things that have made progressive

85
00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,040
Speaker 3: of voters and even some centrist voters very happy. You know,

86
00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:07,720
Speaker 3: he passed sweeping packages through Congress, including the Infrastructure Law,

87
00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:11,320
Speaker 3: the Inflation Reduction Act. It had money for a bunch

88
00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:14,440
Speaker 3: of green technologies. But his White House has just not

89
00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:18,159
Speaker 3: been able to sort of convince Americans of his record.

90
00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:22,480
Speaker 3: That's been real sore spot for them throughout his presidency,

91
00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:24,560
Speaker 3: and I think that we're seeing that really come to

92
00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:26,680
Speaker 3: fruition as we head into twenty twenty four.

93
00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,560
Speaker 2: We're going to talk with Nick Ackerman coming up next

94
00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:33,000
Speaker 2: about Donald Trump's legal problems and Joe Biden's for that matter.

95
00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:37,680
Speaker 2: But this hasn't made a dent in the polls for indictments.

96
00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:39,960
Speaker 2: We see him in court every other day, in the lobby,

97
00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:43,360
Speaker 2: yelling at reporters. This has not had any detrimental effect

98
00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:43,960
Speaker 2: on his standing.

99
00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:48,719
Speaker 3: It hasn't so far. I mean, but two things on that. One,

100
00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,760
Speaker 3: It has not affected his standing with Republican primary voters

101
00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:53,719
Speaker 3: at all. They sort of view all of these different

102
00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:57,200
Speaker 3: court cases as a sham. If anything that has mobilized

103
00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,960
Speaker 3: and cause his base to coalesce around him, I do.

104
00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,920
Speaker 3: I think that that calculus may change a bit if

105
00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,440
Speaker 3: Trump is indeed the Republican nominee as we largely expect

106
00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:08,880
Speaker 3: him to be, and the focus is now mostly on

107
00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,960
Speaker 3: Trump and Biden. I'm not sure that independent voters and

108
00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:16,240
Speaker 3: sort of moderate voters are necessarily going to want to

109
00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,479
Speaker 3: support Trump with these legal challenges, and that is the

110
00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:21,400
Speaker 3: big challenge for him heading into next year.

111
00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:23,920
Speaker 2: Fascinating stuff and you can read a lot more about it,

112
00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:26,320
Speaker 2: of course, on the terminal and online at Bloomberg dot com.

113
00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:28,360
Speaker 2: Nancy Cook, it's great to see you. Love to talk

114
00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:30,040
Speaker 2: to you next about the ad blitz. I guess that's

115
00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:31,880
Speaker 2: coming in Iowa for Donald Trump, because that's the next

116
00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:34,160
Speaker 2: leg in the story. Isn't it great to see at

117
00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:37,120
Speaker 2: the table? Nancy. Thank you. As we turn our attention

118
00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:41,039
Speaker 2: now to Donald Trump's legal situation which we were just

119
00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,640
Speaker 2: referring to. Now the Supreme Court involved, which is pretty

120
00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,240
Speaker 2: remarkable at this point, as we wait for the Scotus

121
00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:52,039
Speaker 2: to weigh in on this idea of presidential immunity and

122
00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:56,719
Speaker 2: a challenge to the obstruction charge that he and January

123
00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:01,320
Speaker 2: sixth rioters are facing. The court may wait till June

124
00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:03,440
Speaker 2: and likely will to weigh in on this stuff, and

125
00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:06,279
Speaker 2: that trial. Jack Smith's trial is supposed to start in March.

126
00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:11,200
Speaker 2: Maybe not. Nick Ackerman is the man we like to

127
00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:13,240
Speaker 2: talk to when we need to call a lawyer on

128
00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:15,920
Speaker 2: this story. Of course, the founder of the law office

129
00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:19,279
Speaker 2: of Nick Ackerman, former assistant US Attorney, former assistant special

130
00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:23,640
Speaker 2: Watergate prosecutor. It's great to see mister Ackerman, welcome back.

131
00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:26,920
Speaker 2: This is the type of story. You put these two

132
00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:29,919
Speaker 2: together and you see it being brought to the Supreme Court. Now,

133
00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,320
Speaker 2: why people say, you know what, nothing's ever going to

134
00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:34,880
Speaker 2: happen to this guy. Do you think this delays the

135
00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:36,719
Speaker 2: trial that's set to begin in March.

136
00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:42,320
Speaker 4: There's no reason why it should. The Special counsel has

137
00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:46,680
Speaker 4: asked for expedited hearing. The Supreme Court is open to that.

138
00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:50,599
Speaker 4: They've ordered Donald Trump to submit his papers by the

139
00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:53,560
Speaker 4: twentieth of December. I think there's going to be an

140
00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:57,839
Speaker 4: oral argument shortly thereafter on this issue. This could all

141
00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:01,320
Speaker 4: very well be settled and decide by the Supreme Court

142
00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:05,320
Speaker 4: by mid mid January, and this case will just move

143
00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:07,640
Speaker 4: along in March. I mean, I think that's what's going

144
00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:11,520
Speaker 4: to happen. I remember back in my Watergate days when

145
00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,640
Speaker 4: people were saying, well, Nixon has three members on the

146
00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:17,400
Speaker 4: Supreme Court that he's appointed, They're all going to come

147
00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:21,200
Speaker 4: his way. It didn't happen. It was a to zip

148
00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:24,080
Speaker 4: in terms of a decision, And I think you're going

149
00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:25,360
Speaker 4: to see the same thing here.

150
00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:29,040
Speaker 2: Well, there are two separate things, and I want to

151
00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:33,600
Speaker 2: delineate between them. One is the justices considering Jack Smith's request.

152
00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,680
Speaker 2: He asked for this to be clear to fast track

153
00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:41,119
Speaker 2: consideration of Donald Trump's claim on presidential immunity. That's something

154
00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:42,840
Speaker 2: that you are intimately familiar with.

155
00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:43,120
Speaker 1: Neck.

156
00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:46,600
Speaker 2: The other one has to do with the obstruction charge

157
00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:48,800
Speaker 2: and whether the way this is written, it's a law

158
00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:51,720
Speaker 2: that follows the Enron scandal, and it looks like, depending

159
00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:53,840
Speaker 2: on how you read it, that it might only apply

160
00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:59,280
Speaker 2: to document tampering. Either of these could invalidate part of

161
00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:02,000
Speaker 2: the case against Trump. You don't see the court ruling

162
00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:03,480
Speaker 2: that way. Is that how I understand it.

163
00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,720
Speaker 4: I don't see them ruling that way at all. In fact,

164
00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:11,200
Speaker 4: the case, the statute that you're talking about, refers to

165
00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:14,320
Speaker 4: much more than document tampering. It really goes to all

166
00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:19,760
Speaker 4: kinds of obstruction, including an obstruction of Congress. So I

167
00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:25,160
Speaker 4: don't see that a difference here, But that particular issue

168
00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:29,160
Speaker 4: probably won't be decided until much later. Not that that

169
00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,600
Speaker 4: will make a difference because a number of people have

170
00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:36,280
Speaker 4: already been convicted of obstructing Congress. It's a question for

171
00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:40,640
Speaker 4: the Supreme Court. They'll respond to that issue in due course.

172
00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,200
Speaker 4: It'll go to trial and due course against Donald Trump,

173
00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:48,880
Speaker 4: and if it continues as an appeal, it'll be part

174
00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:53,040
Speaker 4: of Donald Trump's appeal from a conviction, assuming he's convicted

175
00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:56,319
Speaker 4: of the obstruction count. But keep in mind, there are

176
00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:59,920
Speaker 4: two other counts that he's been charged with in the

177
00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:05,000
Speaker 4: election interference trial. So yes, that particular count is not

178
00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:08,760
Speaker 4: the be all, end all of the prosecution against Donald Trump.

179
00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:12,360
Speaker 2: Are you still of the mind and correct me if

180
00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,199
Speaker 2: I'm not remembering this the right way, that that will

181
00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:18,440
Speaker 2: be the first trial to begin in the first to

182
00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,800
Speaker 2: end Jack Smith's election tampering case.

183
00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:26,200
Speaker 4: Assuming that the Supreme Court acts quickly, which I think

184
00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:29,840
Speaker 4: they will, will be the first case. I mean, already

185
00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,840
Speaker 4: we have a January eighteenth date that starts the process

186
00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:37,320
Speaker 4: of selecting a jury in this case. So I don't

187
00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:40,880
Speaker 4: see this slowing down. I think the Supreme Court realizes

188
00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:44,480
Speaker 4: that they've got to make this decision. It's important. This

189
00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:48,200
Speaker 4: is an extraordinary circumstance, and this is one of those

190
00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:52,040
Speaker 4: situations where the Government's going to be able to bypass

191
00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,440
Speaker 4: the DC circuit and go straight to the Supreme Court

192
00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:59,240
Speaker 4: and get a pretty quick decision. It is really not

193
00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:03,800
Speaker 4: a very very difficult issue. The DC Circuit has already

194
00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:07,120
Speaker 4: spoken on it in terms of the civil case cases

195
00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:11,120
Speaker 4: that were brought against Donald Trump. I don't think there's

196
00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,480
Speaker 4: any question that running for president is not part of

197
00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:20,119
Speaker 4: presidential duties. It doesn't come under the subject of presidential immunity,

198
00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:22,120
Speaker 4: and I think this is going to be a fairly

199
00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:25,120
Speaker 4: simple issue for the Supreme Court to deal with.

200
00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:31,240
Speaker 2: Talking with former Watergate prosecutor Nick Ackerman about the former president,

201
00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:35,360
Speaker 2: let's move to the current president, mister Ackerman. This took

202
00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:37,760
Speaker 2: place yesterday in the House of Representatives.

203
00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:40,679
Speaker 5: On this vote, the a's are two twenty one and

204
00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:42,120
Speaker 5: then a's are two twelve.

205
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,079
Speaker 2: The resolution is adopted.

206
00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:47,199
Speaker 6: That Objecson, the motion to reconsider is laid.

207
00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:49,920
Speaker 2: On the table. The final act, it seems, of this

208
00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:53,599
Speaker 2: House before they head home, codifying, formalizing, making official, and

209
00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:58,000
Speaker 2: impeachment inquiry that actually was already underway by direction of

210
00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:00,640
Speaker 2: the leadership in the House. Nick. There are a lot

211
00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:04,280
Speaker 2: of questions after we saw Joe Biden's son Hunter up

212
00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:08,080
Speaker 2: there yesterday at the podium, A lot of questions about

213
00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,000
Speaker 2: how they will prove a link between his bad behavior

214
00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:15,400
Speaker 2: and the actions of the current president of the United States.

215
00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:16,480
Speaker 2: Where's the evidence.

216
00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:18,920
Speaker 4: A number of years to do that, and they haven't

217
00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:22,400
Speaker 4: done it. There doesn't appear to be any link between

218
00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,520
Speaker 4: what he's done with his taxes, what he did with

219
00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,400
Speaker 4: the gun charge. None of that has anything to do

220
00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:32,679
Speaker 4: with Joe Biden. This is a purely political act by

221
00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:36,600
Speaker 4: the House Republicans done at the behest of Donald Trump

222
00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:41,880
Speaker 4: to try in some way tar Joe Biden. The fact

223
00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:44,840
Speaker 4: of the matter is there's no evidence. There is no

224
00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:49,199
Speaker 4: evidence they developed. During the entire time that Donald Trump

225
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:53,040
Speaker 4: was in office and everyone knew about the Hunter Biden situation,

226
00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,400
Speaker 4: they never came up with anything, and there's no reason

227
00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,680
Speaker 4: to think they're suddenly going to come up with anything

228
00:11:58,760 --> 00:11:59,679
Speaker 4: new at this point.

229
00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:04,680
Speaker 2: Well, I'm confused, and that's not unusual for me. But

230
00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:10,040
Speaker 2: the chair of the Oversight Committee says that he's going

231
00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:12,679
Speaker 2: to hold Hunter Biden in contempt. The chair of the

232
00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,800
Speaker 2: Judiciary Committee said this as well, for not showing up

233
00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:19,320
Speaker 2: to testify. Albeit they wanted him behind closed doors, but

234
00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:21,240
Speaker 2: he showed up and said I'm here and I will

235
00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:26,720
Speaker 2: testify in public. Does that count as being a no show.

236
00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:28,679
Speaker 2: How would you be held in contempt for showing up?

237
00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:31,600
Speaker 4: You can't. You can't be held in contempt. I mean,

238
00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:34,800
Speaker 4: can you imagine this going before a jury and Hunter

239
00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:38,040
Speaker 4: Biden's lawyer said, standing up and saying he came here,

240
00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:41,400
Speaker 4: he honored the subpoena, was willing to do it, but

241
00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:44,960
Speaker 4: he wasn't going to do it behind closed doors. That's

242
00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:48,360
Speaker 4: just asking for an acquittal on a contempt charge. I

243
00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:50,520
Speaker 4: just don't see that going anywhere.

244
00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,160
Speaker 2: Well, we've settled that. I guess what will be the

245
00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,920
Speaker 2: need then? Is there going to be a need for

246
00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:01,640
Speaker 2: a so called smoking gun of piece of paper that

247
00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,240
Speaker 2: shows the connection here for this to move to an

248
00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:05,200
Speaker 2: impeachment trial.

249
00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,680
Speaker 4: The only way this moves to an impeachment trial is

250
00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:14,360
Speaker 4: if they can show some violation by the president that

251
00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:18,560
Speaker 4: he engaged in a high crime or a misdemeanor. They

252
00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,360
Speaker 4: don't even have a parking ticket against him at this point.

253
00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:24,840
Speaker 4: So I just don't see where this is going. It's

254
00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:28,480
Speaker 4: just going to be another grand standing play by the

255
00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:33,880
Speaker 4: Republican Congress trying to raise doubts about Joe Biden when

256
00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:35,360
Speaker 4: there's no there there.

257
00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:37,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, you don't think it gets to the Senate.

258
00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,720
Speaker 4: It'll never get to the Senate. I can't imagine this

259
00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:43,959
Speaker 4: getting to the Senate. I mean it could in the

260
00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,760
Speaker 4: fact that you get all the same Republicans who wound

261
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:50,920
Speaker 4: up voting for this formal hearing based on what Donald

262
00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:54,000
Speaker 4: Trump wanted. I suppose they could all do the same

263
00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:59,640
Speaker 4: thing and bring an impeachment against Joe Biden. But they've

264
00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:02,719
Speaker 4: got to have some facts. You've got to have a charge,

265
00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,560
Speaker 4: you got to say you did something wrong, and like

266
00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:08,360
Speaker 4: I said, right now, they don't have a parking ticket

267
00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:09,560
Speaker 4: to charge against them.

268
00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:13,839
Speaker 2: It's good to see again Nick Ackerman with us here

269
00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:17,199
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg's Sound On, a voice of experience here as

270
00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:20,400
Speaker 2: we bring you conversations with insiders in Washington who've been

271
00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:25,880
Speaker 2: there every day. On this program, you're listening to the

272
00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:27,720
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Sound On podcast.

273
00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:32,160
Speaker 1: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

274
00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:35,080
Speaker 1: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg

275
00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,400
Speaker 1: Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa

276
00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,840
Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play

277
00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:43,280
Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty.

278
00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:47,080
Speaker 2: Hey find us on YouTube watch Charlie Pellett do his

279
00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,440
Speaker 2: thing join us here in the studio. Any day we're

280
00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:51,800
Speaker 2: on the air. Go to YouTube search Bloomberg Global News.

281
00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:55,360
Speaker 2: You'll find my friend Kaylee Lyons, who just came into

282
00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:59,800
Speaker 2: the studio here for part two of this broadcast. We've

283
00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:02,320
Speaker 2: got got some news. You're going to help me kind

284
00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:04,280
Speaker 2: of unpack all of this because we heard from Chuck

285
00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:07,520
Speaker 2: Schumer a little bit earlier today on the floor dismayed

286
00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:09,920
Speaker 2: that everyone was going home. And I've been sitting here

287
00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,640
Speaker 2: for the last hour talking about everyone going home, and

288
00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:16,800
Speaker 2: some people are. But let's listen to the majority leader

289
00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:19,520
Speaker 2: because it sounds like, well, he seems to think they're

290
00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:22,400
Speaker 2: onto something in these border negotiations. Here he is.

291
00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:26,920
Speaker 7: Yesterday we had another round of productive conversations and there

292
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:30,560
Speaker 7: was more progress, but of course there's more work to do,

293
00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,160
Speaker 7: and we're going to keep at it and keep at it.

294
00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,720
Speaker 7: Last night I falled Klocher and a couple of nominations

295
00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:39,480
Speaker 7: to the federal bench in the Department of Justice, with

296
00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:43,280
Speaker 7: possible votes on these nominees as soon as tomorrow. To

297
00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,400
Speaker 7: my Republican colleagues who have set action on the border

298
00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:50,040
Speaker 7: as urgent, let's keep working to find a solution instead

299
00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:53,800
Speaker 7: of rushing for the exits. If Republicans are serious about

300
00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:57,440
Speaker 7: getting something done, they should not be so eager to

301
00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:01,320
Speaker 7: go home. This may be our last best chance to

302
00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:02,760
Speaker 7: get this legislation done.

303
00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:05,720
Speaker 2: Now that was this morning. It doesn't sound like somebody

304
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:07,680
Speaker 2: who's about to pack his bags here. He's even got

305
00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:11,280
Speaker 2: a couple nominations to deal with. Yea, So are they

306
00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:12,240
Speaker 2: staying overtime?

307
00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:15,640
Speaker 8: We're about to find out. The Majority leader is going

308
00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:17,280
Speaker 8: to go back to the floor and announce what the

309
00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,920
Speaker 8: schedule is going to look like. But there's been reports

310
00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:23,160
Speaker 8: that they're going to do some folts tonight. Then they'll

311
00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:27,000
Speaker 8: come back Monday and try to keep working. The thing is, though,

312
00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:29,680
Speaker 8: is if the Senate does stay overtime they reach a deal,

313
00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:32,000
Speaker 8: that's great. The House is still gone.

314
00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:37,840
Speaker 2: Yeah right, So just ask Byron Donald's. He was standing

315
00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:40,360
Speaker 2: outside the House looking across the other side of the Capital,

316
00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:41,240
Speaker 2: asked about this today.

317
00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,880
Speaker 5: The Senate is crazy. The Senate wants to spend more

318
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,680
Speaker 5: money than they voted for back in May, and now

319
00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:48,200
Speaker 5: they want to spend more money on top of that.

320
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,440
Speaker 5: I mean, like, what are we doing. Joe Biden signed

321
00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,040
Speaker 5: in the law the spending levels they want to now

322
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,280
Speaker 5: spend more money. So the Senate wants to break the deal.

323
00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,400
Speaker 8: For what it's worth, there were plenty in the Republican

324
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,120
Speaker 8: party who also didn't like that deal, who want to

325
00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:02,080
Speaker 8: spend less money.

326
00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:03,080
Speaker 1: Right, So.

327
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:06,720
Speaker 2: Does that sound like someone who's ready to avoid a

328
00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,200
Speaker 2: government shut down the beginning of next year. If you

329
00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:11,399
Speaker 2: ask Kakim Jeffreys, he'd tell you the only good thing

330
00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,120
Speaker 2: that happened this year was Democrats in the House. Here's

331
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,879
Speaker 2: the leader, who, by the way, held a year end

332
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:21,920
Speaker 2: news conference. The speaker did not, so maybe he's coming back.

333
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,200
Speaker 2: I don't know. Here's the Democratic leader.

334
00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:29,679
Speaker 9: Anything productive that has happened in this Congress, which is

335
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:35,080
Speaker 9: not much because of the extreme maga Republicans, has occurred

336
00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:39,880
Speaker 9: because House Democrats have led the way.

337
00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:44,560
Speaker 2: And so we wait to find out what the schedule

338
00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:46,320
Speaker 2: is going to be. Looks like the House going by

339
00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:48,840
Speaker 2: by though. Yeah no, if we get some movement on

340
00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:51,959
Speaker 2: the border, we'll let you know. It is not the

341
00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,840
Speaker 2: border that appears to be driving numbers, because we could

342
00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:56,520
Speaker 2: bring any number of polls out on that. But the

343
00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,840
Speaker 2: new Bloomberg News Morning consult swing state polls looking to

344
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,880
Speaker 2: at the economy. We've talked about Bidenomics We've talked about

345
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:05,720
Speaker 2: it with Jared Bernstein on the air, trying to figure

346
00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:10,119
Speaker 2: out the disconnect. But Kaylee, these numbers go beyond disconnect.

347
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,160
Speaker 2: Joe Biden's losing to Donald Trump among suburban women yep,

348
00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:16,560
Speaker 2: and among Union voters yep. I'm scratching my head. This

349
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:18,719
Speaker 2: is Michigan. This is the guy who walked the picket line.

350
00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,000
Speaker 8: Yeah, it doesn't seem like it really did that much

351
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:24,640
Speaker 8: his support for the UAW And it's not just those

352
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:28,080
Speaker 8: two groups either. Joe young people eighteen to thirty four.

353
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,200
Speaker 8: Increasingly he is losing their support, and all of that

354
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,840
Speaker 8: paints a not so great picture for the current president

355
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,479
Speaker 8: when this is a state that could be absolutely critical

356
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:39,400
Speaker 8: in twenty twenty four.

357
00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,960
Speaker 2: I bet they're looking at this pull in the campaign.

358
00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 2: And I know Eli Yoakley as he helped us put

359
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:48,199
Speaker 2: it together political analysts that morning consult is with us

360
00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,240
Speaker 2: right now on Bloomberg's sound on Eli, It's good to

361
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,959
Speaker 2: see you. This is a month three that we've been

362
00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,879
Speaker 2: working on this together. So I believe that, based on

363
00:18:55,920 --> 00:19:00,920
Speaker 2: the scientific method, is officially a trend here, and it's

364
00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 2: not good, is it.

365
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 6: You know, I used to work with the political analyst

366
00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 6: Nathan Gonzalez at Roll Call, and when we saw three

367
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,360
Speaker 6: things happening on the campaign, Charlie, we'd always say three

368
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:13,120
Speaker 6: is a trend. And that's what we're seeing here. I mean,

369
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 6: in every successive survey we've seen of these seven key

370
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:20,600
Speaker 6: key states to the twenty twenty four elections, Joe Biden

371
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:25,080
Speaker 6: has been underperforming. And in every survey it stands out

372
00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,439
Speaker 6: that it's his base that's the problem. It's young people,

373
00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:30,879
Speaker 6: it's black voters. If you ask people who voted for

374
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 6: Joe Biden in twenty twenty if they're going to do

375
00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:35,639
Speaker 6: it again, they're less likely to say so than Donald

376
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:39,920
Speaker 6: Trump's supporters. Clearly, he needs to rev up his own supporters.

377
00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 6: And none of this stuff is breaking through. Be it

378
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:47,040
Speaker 6: his legislative accomplishments that are legitimate, be it Donald Trump's

379
00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 6: severe criminal problems and democracy challenges that bother his base,

380
00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:55,360
Speaker 6: or be it the fact that these economic problems are slowing.

381
00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:57,880
Speaker 6: He's got a major problem, and none of his messaging

382
00:19:58,000 --> 00:19:59,679
Speaker 6: on any of these things is breaking.

383
00:19:59,440 --> 00:19:59,920
Speaker 5: Through to the Marria.

384
00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:06,120
Speaker 8: So, eli, is it that Biden is losing right now

385
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:08,359
Speaker 8: more so than it is Trump is winning? If that

386
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:08,920
Speaker 8: makes sense?

387
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, probably. I mean, if you're not able to pull

388
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:14,760
Speaker 6: all of your supporters from last time and your other

389
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,200
Speaker 6: and your opponent is doing better at that, I think

390
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 6: that suggests that you're losing. And you know, I think

391
00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:23,800
Speaker 6: the one thing that we should be thinking about is

392
00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 6: everybody can say this is early, these are successive, this

393
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,760
Speaker 6: is not changing. But we haven't really seen the campaign

394
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,639
Speaker 6: litigated yet. I think Grig Davis mentioned this earlier in

395
00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:35,920
Speaker 6: your show. I mean, where is the Biden ad campaign,

396
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,920
Speaker 6: Where is the Biden super pac attacking Donald Trump? Where

397
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 6: are any of these typical things we see in American

398
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:45,879
Speaker 6: politics to try to tear down your opponent. The most

399
00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:50,880
Speaker 6: energizing thing for a base is going after your rivals.

400
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,920
Speaker 6: And you know, I think probably because of his legitimate

401
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 6: concerns about looking like he's interfering with the Justice Department,

402
00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,800
Speaker 6: I think the President has been scared of going after

403
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,439
Speaker 6: Trump on some of these legal issues. But you know,

404
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,919
Speaker 6: he's got an economic case he could start making to

405
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 6: the American people. It's just not breaking through because they're

406
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,920
Speaker 6: not quite buying it. I mean, one of the most

407
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 6: interesting things that we saw in this survey is good

408
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 6: chunks of swing state voters still see prizes as increasing.

409
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 6: Despite all the reports we've seen that it's getting better,

410
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 6: We're starting to see the share of voters in some

411
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:27,160
Speaker 6: of these states that say they see prices as increasing

412
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 6: decline since October. But it's still clear clear majorities see

413
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,359
Speaker 6: inflation as a big problem in their lives.

414
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:40,639
Speaker 2: A little context on Michigan. Joe Biden won that state

415
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 2: beat Donald Trump in twenty by one hundred and fifty

416
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 2: four thousand votes. It was really close in twenties. I mean,

417
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,239
Speaker 2: that is pretty close. In twenty sixteen, Donald Trump won

418
00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 2: Michigan by just under eleven thousand votes. Eli, can you

419
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 2: speak to the not only the close nature of what's

420
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 2: happening here in Michigan, but how important that state will

421
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,440
Speaker 2: be among the seven we're watching to decide the next president.

422
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 6: It's could be very important, and I think that what

423
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 6: happens in Mission it's going to be reflective with some

424
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,399
Speaker 6: of these other states, such as like Wisconsin up in

425
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 6: the same area. All of these states were really close,

426
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,160
Speaker 6: and all of these states margins are going to matter

427
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 6: a lot. I think that's why you've seen the President

428
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 6: and his campaign so concerned about some of these third

429
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,200
Speaker 6: party contenders in the wings. The good news for him

430
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 6: on the third party contenders at this point still, as

431
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 6: we've seen in the previous surveys, is they're not yet

432
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 6: pulling any more support than from Biden than they are

433
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 6: from Donald Trump. But you know, Michigan stands out as

434
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 6: one of those states that has a clear labor union population.

435
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 6: That these are working class voters that he needs across

436
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 6: the country to come out and support his campaign, and

437
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:50,479
Speaker 6: right now they're just not there in the numbers that

438
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:51,440
Speaker 6: he needs them to be.

439
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 8: It's interesting when looking at this polling across all seven

440
00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 8: of these swing states. Obviously we know the economy's problem

441
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 8: matic for Biden. It has been consistently voters by and

442
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 8: large in these swing states trust Donald Trump's handling of

443
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 8: the economy more so than Biden's. What's interesting, though, is

444
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 8: also swing state voters had a more favorable view of

445
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 8: their own local economies than of the national economy as

446
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 8: that whole. As a whole, ELI is that telling in

447
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 8: some way? Does that suggest that maybe it's not as

448
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,400
Speaker 8: bad for Biden as maybe it looks at the top

449
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 8: line level.

450
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 6: I think one of the other things we saw in

451
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 6: the survey was that not a lot of folks are

452
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 6: worried about jobs. I think that's whenever you think about

453
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 6: your local economy, you're like, where can I go to work?

454
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 6: Inflation is clearly a macroeconomic problem, and it looks like

455
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 6: the American people are smart enough to realize that it's

456
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 6: a national issue, that the economy is a bigger problem nationwide.

457
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 6: Maybe we'll watch this as we move forward. I think

458
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 6: continue asking that maybe that'll start translating upward. But you know,

459
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 6: I think the American people are blaming Joe Biden for

460
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 6: the state of the national economy. They're not blaming their

461
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 6: mayor for inflation and the costs of milk. Right, this

462
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 6: is something that is a national problem that lands on

463
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 6: the president's shoulders.

464
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 2: I'll tell you, I wonder your thoughts on timing. Eli.

465
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 2: We hear in one ear that's a year out, don't

466
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 2: pay attention to these polls. We also hear that state

467
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 2: poles are critical at this point because the national polls

468
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 2: don't paint the picture. I guess what I'm getting at

469
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 2: is not just what should we take seriously because obviously

470
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 2: we're invested in this year at Bloomberg News in morning console,

471
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 2: But how much time does Joe Biden have to write

472
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 2: the ship.

473
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 4: Well.

474
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 6: First of all, they do pay attention to these polls,

475
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 6: because you see the White House talking about poles every

476
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 6: single day.

477
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:42,400
Speaker 2: Yeah.

478
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,200
Speaker 6: The other thing, the national polls, even a lot of

479
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 6: the same trends we're saying in the swing states are

480
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 6: being reflected at the national level. Be it Joe Biden's

481
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 6: base issues, especially these concerns among black and young voters.

482
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 6: You know, if the American people traditionally start tuning into

483
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,120
Speaker 6: the campaigns, we get closer to it. Once we could

484
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 6: pass the Republican primary, there is an official Republican nominee.

485
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 6: That's a pretty good moment when this stuff solidifies. But

486
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 6: at this point in the campaign, the Joe Biden campaign

487
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,439
Speaker 6: has all the time in the world to paint it,

488
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,679
Speaker 6: to try to rebuild the president's image. That was one

489
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 6: of the greatest things he wanted, The greatest assets he

490
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 6: had in the twenty twenty campaign was the fact that

491
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 6: people just liked the guy. They might have thought he

492
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 6: was too old, he might have had other issues with him,

493
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:31,679
Speaker 6: but they liked him. And it was a perhaps a

494
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 6: comparison to the incompany the Oval Office at the time.

495
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 6: This is a moment where the Biden campaign could be

496
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 6: spending time trying to rebuild the president's image. The problem

497
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 6: is going to a Maryland NIH facility is not going

498
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 6: to break through to the American people when we want

499
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 6: to talk about drug process. That's going to take a

500
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 6: concerted effort from his campaign, from his allies, spending money

501
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 6: on TV in these key states to try to rebuild

502
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 6: the president's reputation.

503
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 8: Well, the president has some reputation problems. The former president

504
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 8: does as well. As we've seen consistently in polling, there

505
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 8: is a large chunk of the American electorate who would

506
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 8: like neither of them to be the nominees for the

507
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,199
Speaker 8: Democratic and Republican Party. And something else I wanted to

508
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 8: mention from this poll ELI thirteen percent of swing state

509
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 8: voters said they were very likely to consider supporting a

510
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 8: candidate from a new political party. What about that factor?

511
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think that figure is pretty close

512
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 6: to the level of support we're seeing for the various

513
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 6: third party contenators we've named in these surveys at the

514
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 6: state level. At this point, both President Biden and for

515
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 6: President Trump stand to lose about the same with those

516
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 6: candidates names thrown into the mix. I'm not sure that

517
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 6: at this point they're having a huge impact. But you

518
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:50,920
Speaker 6: mentioned Michigan, You mentioned these close margins. That's something that

519
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 6: surveys like this aren't going to be able to pick

520
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,400
Speaker 6: up a few thousand votes here and there that could

521
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 6: decide this thing. One thing that I noticed going through

522
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 6: some of the numbers is just the fact that Robert F.

523
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 6: Kennedy Junior's popularity has been improving among swing Saint voters

524
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 6: fans as they get to know who he is. That's

525
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 6: something that I think both of the Trump's campaign and

526
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 6: Biden's campaign are going to be keeping a close eye

527
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 6: on as we move forward in this race. If they

528
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 6: get vallid.

529
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 2: Access, the conventional wisdom is that RFK Junior would take

530
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 2: votes away from Donald Trump, Cornell West, Jill Stein take

531
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 2: votes away from Joe Biden. Is that right, Eli? Do

532
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 2: they cancel each other out?

533
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 6: It looks like they're canceling each other out at this point.

534
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 6: The only the only caveat that I would add though,

535
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 6: is like a few votes here and there could shake

536
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 6: the whole thing.

537
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've certainly seen that in a lot of these states. Kayley,

538
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 2: if this came down to ten thousand votes in Michigan

539
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 2: the way it did in twenty sixteen. This poll is

540
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 2: something we're going to look back at.

541
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 8: Yeah, absolutely, And of course we'll continue to do this

542
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 8: polling and we'll keep talking to Eli.

543
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 2: About this is monthly Eli through the cycle.

544
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 6: Right yeah, wait, yep, absolutely, strap in.

545
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 2: Appreciate your coming to see us. Yeah, we're we're fastening

546
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 2: our straps as always with Eliyoakley from Morning Consul to

547
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 2: our partners here at the Bloomberg News Swing State Poll headquarters.

548
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure

549
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify and

550
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find

551
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm

552
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:24,200
Speaker 2: Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com