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Speaker 1: Welco A trillions. I'm Joel Webber and I'm Eric Belchiers. Eric,

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Speaker 1: you went down Under to Australia, but while you went

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Speaker 1: down under, crypto seemed to go down under. I'm curious,

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Speaker 1: while you were on your trip, which was a work

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Speaker 1: E t F inspired travel abroad, how much did people

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Speaker 1: want to talk about crypto not E t F s

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Speaker 1: A little bit. Obviously, I'm there for the e t

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Speaker 1: F market and it's not as big of a deal there.

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Speaker 1: I just felt like the mental thing was more about

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Speaker 1: the e t F market and Australian equities and that

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Speaker 1: kind of thing. But certainly came up. But where I

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Speaker 1: noticed that the most was on my Twitter feed. I

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Speaker 1: would go to bed, and when you wake up in Australia,

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Speaker 1: say six thirty seven, it's three thirty four pm in

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Speaker 1: the US, so I would get to see a whole

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Speaker 1: day's news flow, And of course there was always one

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Speaker 1: or two new nuggets of like horrendous details about f

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Speaker 1: t X, the crypto exchange that halted redemptions, halted withdrawals

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Speaker 1: and allegedly used customer funds, and Sam Bankman freed who

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Speaker 1: you know, it was the face of crypto he was

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Speaker 1: supposed to be like this disheveled tech nerd that like

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Speaker 1: you could trust versus say, the Wall Street slick people.

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Speaker 1: And this was a whole image covered on many, many magazines,

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Speaker 1: many TV shows, And for this to be a complete implosion,

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Speaker 1: I think is I can't overstate how brutal it is

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Speaker 1: for Crypto because of how popular he was and how

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Speaker 1: how much media exposure he had. Plus the other thing

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Speaker 1: is having come from investor relations in crisis communications that

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Speaker 1: were to affirmed there for a couple of years. What

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Speaker 1: you want with bad news is just get it all

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Speaker 1: out quick and let the news flow take something else

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Speaker 1: to Two days later, this comes out drip drip, drip,

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Speaker 1: drip drip every new day. We're on like week three

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Speaker 1: now and there's still new details. This is bad, This

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Speaker 1: could be. I'm not gonna say it's the death blow

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Speaker 1: for Crypto, but it is a devastating punch which I'm

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Speaker 1: I'm really wanting to talk about this. So we're gonna

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Speaker 1: be joined by James Seifert from bloom We're gonna Telligent

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Speaker 1: and Katie Gryfield from Broomberg News. We spent in the

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Speaker 1: in the good times, we spent a lot of time

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Speaker 1: talking about crypto and bitcoin et F s, and then

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Speaker 1: now we've hit not only a crypto winner, but maybe

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Speaker 1: a crypto nuclear winner is what a lot of people

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Speaker 1: were calling it. So I think it's worth us talking

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Speaker 1: about this again and what it might mean for e

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Speaker 1: t maybe a crypto coma. And the question is will

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Speaker 1: it wake up this time on Jilliance? What the SBF?

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Speaker 1: Katie James, welcome back to Jillian's. Thanks for having me,

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Speaker 1: Happy to be here. Okay, Katie, it felt like the

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Speaker 1: E t F world was really excited about bitcoin. How

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Speaker 1: does it feel now? I mean, if you think back

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Speaker 1: a year ago, I feel like we were talking about

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Speaker 1: all time highs. We had just gotten the futures Bitcoin

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Speaker 1: et F out the door to your sec here's another application.

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Speaker 1: Maybe you miss my last one. Yeah, for sure, people

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Speaker 1: are like, okay, this was the last needed step. Now

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Speaker 1: we're going to get a spot pitcoinn e t F.

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Speaker 1: You also had all these crypto ish products launched, just

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Speaker 1: dozens of them, and then worldwide you have all these

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Speaker 1: actual crypto e t p s. You look at where

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Speaker 1: we are now November two, and it's a totally different picture.

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Speaker 1: And we've seen that big pipeline that I just talked

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Speaker 1: about is dried up, and are there hopes for a

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Speaker 1: spot bitcoin e t F at this point it doesn't

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Speaker 1: feel like it. Well, let me say this before we

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Speaker 1: get to that. I agree, it's things don't look good

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Speaker 1: right now, but James doesn't an e t F fix this.

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Speaker 1: If the spotted Bitcoin e t F had been approved,

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Speaker 1: like we were all saying the SEC should, and you

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Speaker 1: were in this, you probably wouldn't have felt much you

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Speaker 1: could have. There's no way your funds would have been

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Speaker 1: like frozen, and and the ones that traded seemed to

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Speaker 1: trade find so it seemed like we were actually right

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Speaker 1: by by encouraging the SEC to approve a spot pitcoin

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Speaker 1: e t F. Yeah. I mean, if you had money

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Speaker 1: at ft X or block Fire wherever, jet Genesis that's

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Speaker 1: frozen right now, you would have much preferred to have

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Speaker 1: your money in a bitcoin et F, which you can

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Speaker 1: do it through future ZTF. But that's the that's not

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Speaker 1: exactly what people want. People want to spot and they

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Speaker 1: went to these other areas and right now they're in trouble.

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Speaker 1: And if you had an et F that was regulated

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Speaker 1: by the SEC under the thirty three Act, we wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be having as much of a conversation, but no matter what,

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Speaker 1: people would have lost a lot of money because there

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Speaker 1: was a lot of money on this even before we

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Speaker 1: were looking at a spot bitcoin ETF approval worth mentioning

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Speaker 1: that there are those future based products that you you

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Speaker 1: just alluded to, how have they stood up in all

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Speaker 1: of us? So actually they've done tremendously well. Their bidass

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Speaker 1: spreads have stayed very tight um, the trading has gone

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Speaker 1: through the roof. Biddoh is now the one a very

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Speaker 1: highly traded et F. It's more more traded than GBTC,

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Speaker 1: which didn't seem possible last year, so it's it's traded

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Speaker 1: very well, traded tightly, and honestly, one of the big

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Speaker 1: things we were worried about for potential with bitcoin future

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Speaker 1: et F s is as has been talked about on

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Speaker 1: the show many times, and when you trade futures there's

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Speaker 1: the potential for backward backwardation and contango. So you you

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Speaker 1: have to sell a contract every month essentially, So if

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Speaker 1: you're selling the contract, and you're selling a contract at

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Speaker 1: one price and you have to buy a contract at

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Speaker 1: a higher price, that constantly eats away at your returns

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Speaker 1: UM and the year and a half leading up to

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Speaker 1: the Bitcoin Futures et F approval, the rolling that front

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Speaker 1: on future contract would have underperformed spot bitcoin itself by

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Speaker 1: a hundred and eighty percent over a year and a half,

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Speaker 1: which is a lot. So we were worried. We didn't

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Speaker 1: think it would be quite that bad. Futures have become

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Speaker 1: more institutionalized, more efficient, but we were worried that it

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Speaker 1: could be ten twelve percent a year based on what

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Speaker 1: we were seeing in the markets. But what happened in

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Speaker 1: the futures market for bitcoin, everything flattened out. There's bury

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Speaker 1: any curve. At some point there was a tiny bit

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Speaker 1: of backwardation which actually aids in the performance. So we've

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Speaker 1: only seen over the last year since this thing launched,

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Speaker 1: Like Katie mentioned, it's only underperformed by about one point

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Speaker 1: eight one point nine percent on spot market. And these

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Speaker 1: things charge basis points, so you take out half of

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Speaker 1: that and it's basically tracking within a percentage point of

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Speaker 1: Spot Bitcoin. The problem is it's down so that one

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Speaker 1: point eight I mean, that's like UM does probably little

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Speaker 1: to uh, I guess sue the people who might have

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Speaker 1: bought it, So working great unless you are invested in

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Speaker 1: there basically, but talk a little bit. Bid Oh one

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Speaker 1: year old. You guys wrote a story about it. You

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Speaker 1: actually wish that a happy birthday on t F. I

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Speaker 1: q it was I share a birthday with Yeah, that's cute.

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Speaker 1: I'm a lot older. But what's your take on biddo

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Speaker 1: and how it's held up since then? I will say

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Speaker 1: it almost feels like there's this very delicious irony here

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Speaker 1: that the spot Bitcoin e t F, or rather the

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Speaker 1: future is back to eq t F s have performed

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Speaker 1: so well, and I've spoken to a lot of E

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Speaker 1: t F people, some in this room who have said that,

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Speaker 1: you know, this is why we should have a Spot

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Speaker 1: e t F for all the problems or the potential

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Speaker 1: problems that would have been avoided that James went through.

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Speaker 1: But if you're Gary Gensler, who's one of his underlying

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Speaker 1: problems is the exchanges, he's you know, made a point

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Speaker 1: of that, and we're talking about this fantastic blow up

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Speaker 1: of one of the biggest exchanges, I don't think this

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Speaker 1: moves the needle in a in a good way for

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Speaker 1: the Spot Bitcoin et F crowd um and one of

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Speaker 1: the reasons we said that they should approved a spot

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Speaker 1: Bitcoin e TF is that it would all these market

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Speaker 1: makers who are not dumb. These are highly sophisticated people

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Speaker 1: with a lot of money at play. They would have

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Speaker 1: knows their way into these exchanges a bit, and it's

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Speaker 1: possible they would have sniffed out some problems with f

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Speaker 1: t X long before and not used it. But even

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Speaker 1: if they even if f t X had a problem,

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Speaker 1: there's multiple exchanges, so they would be able to source

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Speaker 1: liquidity elsewhere. And I think that's the world. The story

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Speaker 1: is an e t F kind of takes away that

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Speaker 1: that risk of one of these exchanges having an implosion

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Speaker 1: in halting redemptions. I will say f t X was

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Speaker 1: the trading platform in the crypto world. Everyone wanted to

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Speaker 1: use f t X because of the way they did liquidations,

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Speaker 1: because of how efficient the trading was. So there were

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Speaker 1: institutions that were caught up in that. But yeah, like

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Speaker 1: you were mentioning in the in the e t F world,

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Speaker 1: you have the Jaine Streets, the vertu uh Susquehanna, Ken Griff,

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Speaker 1: the Citadel. These people are all in here. They are

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Speaker 1: the biggest money in the world and they are trading.

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Speaker 1: They make Mark it's more efficient when they trade. That said,

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Speaker 1: they might have been using fd X because there's plenty

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Speaker 1: of institutions that had money on f t X that

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Speaker 1: we now know. They don't know how much money they're

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Speaker 1: going to get back, if any at all, and not

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Speaker 1: small amounts of money, big figures, millions of dollars. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So Eric, what are the odds that the SEC wades

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Speaker 1: into this and ever ever ever approves a spot bitcoin ETF. So,

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Speaker 1: on one hand, this is devastating to crypto in general,

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Speaker 1: and I don't know if you could say, well, this

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Speaker 1: is probably just prolonged to spot bitcoin e f TF

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Speaker 1: because this proves Gensler sort of worries. On the other hand,

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Speaker 1: this could fast track regulation, and we all know that

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Speaker 1: was the one thing Ginzler needed to satisfy him for

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Speaker 1: approving to spot bitcoin ETF. Then he would feel more comfortable.

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Speaker 1: So maybe this actually gets it going. Um, And I

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Speaker 1: think the question is, let's just say hypothetically there's regulation.

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Speaker 1: Maybe Biden says to Gensler gets something going, or even

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Speaker 1: says the Congress get some regulations out and Agains is

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Speaker 1: happy they prove us up at twenty t F. Let's

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Speaker 1: just say that all happens in a year. Probably not,

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Speaker 1: but let's just say it does. Will advisors ever come back.

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Speaker 1: I know they trust the E t F and they

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Speaker 1: would certainly be like, this is probably gonna be better

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Speaker 1: for me than an exchange. But is crypto so um

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Speaker 1: I guess mutilated and the reputation so bad in the

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Speaker 1: toilet that doesn't even matter anymore. Yeah, I would say

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Speaker 1: Eric and I were on the record we thought was

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Speaker 1: a realistic opportunity. This was granted over a year ago

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Speaker 1: when we first started saying that. I still think isn't

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Speaker 1: off the table for the reasons Eric mentioned. My over

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Speaker 1: under was basically September two, end of Q three um

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Speaker 1: I part of that was that I thought there was

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Speaker 1: tail risk or tail potential for like some sort of

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Speaker 1: big regulation to come in and US get like an

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Speaker 1: earlier approval than we expected, maybe like Q one or

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Speaker 1: Q two of this year, based on like some regulatory guidelines.

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Speaker 1: There was a lot of movement in Congress. Ironically, f

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Speaker 1: t X was trying to change the way things were happening,

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Speaker 1: which would have made their markets regulated by the CFTC,

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Speaker 1: which could have satisfied it. Obviously that's not happening. So

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Speaker 1: I think all those tail risk events of potentially having

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Speaker 1: an early UM move move towards regulation, getting more regulatory

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Speaker 1: clarity are gone. So I don't know that the September

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Speaker 1: is going to happen anymore, but I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: completely gone. As Eric mentioned, this could bring more regulation,

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Speaker 1: more demand for Congress to step in and do something here.

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Speaker 1: But what about the ultimate question here, which is will

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Speaker 1: would investors come back if there were a regulated entity

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Speaker 1: like a spot bitcoin ETF. That's like the big rallying

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Speaker 1: bull cry right that it'll unlock this previously untapped type

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Speaker 1: of investor. But at this point I'm not sure that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: But is the untapped market turned off? That's a great

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Speaker 1: question if you think about who would be using a

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Speaker 1: spot Bitcoin e t F trying to put it into

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Speaker 1: you know, perhaps accounts that they can't go out and

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Speaker 1: have a cold wallet ness sat right, that's somebody would

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Speaker 1: want to get in low and watch it didn't should

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Speaker 1: go higher. So I think I think if that product existed,

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Speaker 1: somebody would be willing to dabble in it, and the

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Speaker 1: whole point of it would be that it would be safe.

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Speaker 1: I don't think there's any political win here for anybody

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Speaker 1: to touch this. So I don't see that I'm barish

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Speaker 1: on your call for I don't. I don't. I think

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Speaker 1: it's just a lose lose. It just looks nasty. So

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Speaker 1: right now, at least I wouldn't see anybody willing to

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Speaker 1: weigh in. It's too radioactive. Make any clarity here, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's that's the That's why I are still low. But

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Speaker 1: there is perceivably a path, but I would still stick

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Speaker 1: to lower. It's definitely radioactive. Right now, I don't think

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Speaker 1: it like if Gensler were to approve a spotic when

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Speaker 1: E t F. Right now, I can't like he's obviously

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Speaker 1: not going to go anywhere near it. But a few

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Speaker 1: months from now, I do think there's going to be

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Speaker 1: a call from people in Congress, from regulators and legislators

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Speaker 1: to to do something about regulation the cryptocurrencies ACE. So,

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Speaker 1: so we are about to talk about something and I

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Speaker 1: want to come back to it, which is g BTC.

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Speaker 1: If we we said it earlier, what is it and

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Speaker 1: what makes it really interesting? Right now? Gbtcson over the

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Speaker 1: counter trust that does it. It's almost like a closed

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Speaker 1: end fund um where so it's it doesn't trade. There's

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Speaker 1: no arbitrage, so it doesn't trade near the n A

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Speaker 1: V of Bitcoin's once traded a huge premium and now

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Speaker 1: it's at a huge discount. I think forty two closed

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Speaker 1: at forty five on Friday and going down. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: that's crazy. That's a that's a steep discount. And g

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Speaker 1: BTC was, which is, by the way, the gray scale

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Speaker 1: Bitcoin Trust. Yeah, a lot of people had used this

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Speaker 1: because there was no spoty TF. I think a lot

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Speaker 1: maybe they didn't even understand that it could have these

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Speaker 1: steep discounts. But it's kind of a bummer if you

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Speaker 1: went in anywhere near that premium or if it was

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Speaker 1: close to the n A V and now you're down.

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Speaker 1: Even if bitcoin was flat, it just would be a

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Speaker 1: bummer to lose. That's why. Which is great. So bitcoin

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Speaker 1: is at one price. Yeah, Hi, if you're in this thing,

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Speaker 1: off whatever that spot price right, So actually have some

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Speaker 1: sizes here. I was just looking this up. Um in

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Speaker 1: rough terms, since the end of g BTC is up

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Speaker 1: something like a thousand percent, but bitcoin itself is up

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Speaker 1: over three thousand percent, So this thing has lagged and

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Speaker 1: lagged and lagged. Discount is staggering, but when you put

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Speaker 1: it that way, it's even more dramatic. Yeah, and but

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Speaker 1: a lot of the lagging happened on the downturn too,

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Speaker 1: and so I think I look one point where bitcoin

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Speaker 1: was flat and you were down like a bunch, and

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Speaker 1: that would really hurt. Uh. It's if you're up a

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Speaker 1: thousand percent you can still kind of sleep at night,

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Speaker 1: I think, But it's when you're down and bitcoin is

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Speaker 1: flat or something like that, which is can be frustrating

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Speaker 1: and maybe you can't get your money out either. Right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: well you could sell it, but again you would be

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Speaker 1: selling it. It would be like buying something and then

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Speaker 1: you know you want to sell it discount or the

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Speaker 1: ideas you weighed around potentially comes up, or if Gray

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Speaker 1: scales trying to convert it to an each if that

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Speaker 1: would completely close that gap. Some people are buying GBT

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Speaker 1: so ce for that hope. They feel like it's almost

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Speaker 1: like a call option on them converting to an et F,

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Speaker 1: which would give you just like that, and that's a

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Speaker 1: that's a could would be great trade, right, but that's

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Speaker 1: the risk and doesn't look like that slightly. But James

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Speaker 1: recently looked into this and Gray scales owners are having

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Speaker 1: a bit of a problem. So now there's a whole

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Speaker 1: debate on whether GBTC will will be forced to liquidate

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Speaker 1: or could have problems UM and and solvency potential with

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Speaker 1: the people who own them. So, James, why don't you

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Speaker 1: go into that whole scene right now? So let me

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Speaker 1: take a step back. Digital Currency Group is the owner

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Speaker 1: of gray Scale. They own two hundred some odd other companies.

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Speaker 1: One of the two big companies that most people know

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Speaker 1: in the crypto world are gray Scale, which operates GBTC,

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Speaker 1: and Genesis, which is basically a prime broker. They were

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Speaker 1: the first institutionalized prime broker in the cryptocurrency space. Right now,

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Speaker 1: Genesis had some unknown exact exposure to the ft X

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Speaker 1: blow up. Right now, Genesis and d c G are

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Speaker 1: trying to raise money. It's been reported by multiple sources

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Speaker 1: that they're trying to raise a billion dollars or so

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Speaker 1: in emergency financing UM. Genesis could potentially be heading towards something.

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Speaker 1: They're definitely in a liquidity or solvency crisis, So we

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Speaker 1: don't know what's gonna happen. There could be news by

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Speaker 1: the time this drops that something big has happened in

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Speaker 1: the space, so a lot of people are concerned about

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Speaker 1: some sort of contagion risk with Genesis going into getting

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Speaker 1: into trouble, which brings DCG into trouble, which leaves people

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Speaker 1: unknown to what's going to happen to g BTC. Now

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Speaker 1: in the in the documents of GBDC, they specifically state

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Speaker 1: that if the sponsor goes has goes into insolvent, or

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Speaker 1: goes into insolvency or files for bankruptcy, then the trust

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Speaker 1: will be liquidated unless fifty of the shares vote to

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Speaker 1: like transfer to a new sponsor like go to I

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Speaker 1: don't know Goldman or coin Base or some other person

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Speaker 1: that would sponsor this trust, um. But that means if

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Speaker 1: they if this if Gray Scale does go bankrupt, which

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Speaker 1: I don't see any way that that happens right now

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Speaker 1: because of the amount of money they're bringing in on

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Speaker 1: all these trusts. But again, a b DCG sells off

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Speaker 1: Gray Scale as an investment to raise capital, I don't

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Speaker 1: know if they would want to do that. This is

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Speaker 1: one of the crown crown jewels of their portfolio. Um.

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Speaker 1: But essentially it comes bound to the fact that if

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Speaker 1: GBTC has to sell uh has to liquidate, they're going

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Speaker 1: to sell the bitcoin in the open market. It's not

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Speaker 1: a lot of people seem to think like, oh, I'm

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Speaker 1: just gonna get the bitcoin back that I have a

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Speaker 1: pro rad to share. No, the documents are very clear

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Speaker 1: that you would get they would sell the bitcoin in

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Speaker 1: the open market and give you a prograd to share

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Speaker 1: of those sales. So there's a theory out there that

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Speaker 1: d c G is actually shorting bitcoin and buying GBTC

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Speaker 1: knowing they're gonna liquidate and they're gonna pocket. Well, So

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Speaker 1: that's a theory out there. But I mean, we know

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Speaker 1: for a fact that they were buyers of GBTC big

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Speaker 1: buyers in Q two of two. They were buyers in

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Speaker 1: Q one, There are buyers in Q two, and they

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Speaker 1: were actually sellers in Q three, and I'm assuming they're

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Speaker 1: also sellers now in Q four. There's no way to

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Speaker 1: know for sure, but I'd be willing to bet that

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Speaker 1: they're probably selling some shares. But there's also they can't

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Speaker 1: just sell. There's the GBDC. It's what's it's a it's

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Speaker 1: a rule one a offering, which like we're going to

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Speaker 1: get way into the weeds. We don't have to get

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Speaker 1: into that. But it's not regulated on the closed in

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Speaker 1: funds you talked about. But under one A, if you're

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Speaker 1: a related party, which d c G is, you can

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Speaker 1: only sell one percent of the shares outstanding that every

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Speaker 1: three months. So they it's not like they can just

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Speaker 1: dump this on the street immediately. They have to sell slowly.

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Speaker 1: If they are selling, I'm assuming based on what's happening

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Speaker 1: with Genesis and d CG that they're likely selling a

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Speaker 1: little bit to try to raise money. But we we

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Speaker 1: don't know exactly what's going on behind the scenes. This

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Speaker 1: is very opaque. This is not like the E d

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Speaker 1: F world where we know exactly what's going on. I

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Speaker 1: have a word, speculation. This is just it feels so

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Speaker 1: all of this feels so speculative. It's hard to throw

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Speaker 1: thing about throwing money into this and this whatever this is. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's hard to earn money here you go. It feels

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Speaker 1: a little black gone, gone, gone gone. I've spent more

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Speaker 1: time on Signal and in Twitter d M s over

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Speaker 1: the past two weeks then I have in any other

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Speaker 1: period as a journalist. But have a question for James,

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Speaker 1: so wait, I understand why DCG was buying shares of GBTC.

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Speaker 1: A lot of letters here. Why were they? Why were

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Speaker 1: they selling? Do you think that was just to raise cash?

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Speaker 1: Why would DCG be selling shares of GBTC. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: There's no way to know exactly why they're selling, but

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Speaker 1: they owned a ton of it, so there's no reason,

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Speaker 1: like if they need to get unloaded a little bit

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Speaker 1: off of their balance sheet, or they just don't want

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Speaker 1: to have that much exposure. They're going to sell slowly

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Speaker 1: over time. They're probably trying to limit the market impact

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Speaker 1: of that selling. Who who knows? We don't know why

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Speaker 1: they're selling, but we know they they're the largest holder

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Speaker 1: by far. They own more shares of GPDC than any

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Speaker 1: individual entity has owned of GBDC in its history. UM,

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Speaker 1: so it's not like they're just unloading tons and tons

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Speaker 1: of shares. It's a very small amount that they sold

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Speaker 1: in Q three. Can I ask another speculation question, Cathy

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Speaker 1: would bought GBDC shares last week? And I never got

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Speaker 1: a satisfying answer. Why Maybe you could speculate about that?

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Speaker 1: So when she bought bitcoin was around sixteen thousand, seventeen

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars per bitcoin. GBTC at the time was trading

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Speaker 1: at a forty two ish percent discount, maybe more during

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Speaker 1: the day. So I recently saw a GBTC was trading

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Speaker 1: over a fifty discount. So there are times in a

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Speaker 1: day where it goes crazy. So she could have seen

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Speaker 1: one of those times and it was like, basically, if

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Speaker 1: you're buying at that discount, you're buying exposure to bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: At like I said, it's seventeen thousand dollars, you're getting

397
00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:28,080
Speaker 1: it nine thou five hundred dollars. That's what your exposure

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Speaker 1: is at this type of discount. So she might have

399
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Speaker 1: just said this, She's definitely believe in bitcoin. We know

400
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:34,119
Speaker 1: that for sure, so she probably just thought this was

401
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,280
Speaker 1: too good of an opportunity to get exposure. Well, but

402
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:41,320
Speaker 1: doesn't She also like to have maintain waitings that are consistent,

403
00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,919
Speaker 1: and if GBTC went down, she had none. She she

404
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:48,240
Speaker 1: had none, There was no new by interest in this ets.

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Speaker 1: She had a very very small mark. W W it

406
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:55,679
Speaker 1: was She hadn't thought since July. But sometimes she buys

407
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Speaker 1: just to keep the weight at where it was, because

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Speaker 1: if it goes down, she has to buy it to

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Speaker 1: keep the weight up. Was a big buy? Yeah, that

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00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:12,200
Speaker 1: that idea of buying in a discount I find really

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Speaker 1: interesting and I am curious, like how much new money,

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Speaker 1: non crypto money could possibly come, could wash into this space. Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, if we get a spot bitcoin ETF we

414
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Speaker 1: know for a fact there's trillions of dollars in US

415
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 1: advisors that would probably take a nibble at this potentially.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the other thing you've got to realize is

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Speaker 1: Bitcoin itself has had like four or five plus draw downs,

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Speaker 1: and every time people are saying this is the end

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Speaker 1: of crypto, this is the end of bitcoin, and so

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Speaker 1: far it's come back. Now, obviously this could be actually

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Speaker 1: the end of bitcoin. Maybe it's not going to get

422
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:45,480
Speaker 1: back to that sixty dollar high we saw, but this

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Speaker 1: is part of crypto. If you're investing in crypto, you

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Speaker 1: probably if you did any bit of research, you knew

425
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Speaker 1: that a plus draw down was a realistic possibility and

426
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Speaker 1: a realistic rix and f t X. Granted they're a

427
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Speaker 1: huge exchange, but back in the day when moult Cox

428
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Speaker 1: went under, which was an exchange that went bankrupt and

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Speaker 1: they got hacked, they were the exchange. It's not like

430
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 1: it was like a bunch of other exchanges. It was

431
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 1: moult Cox and nobody else and they lost money and

432
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 1: everyone said this was it. Silk Road got hacked. They said,

433
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,080
Speaker 1: oh that's it for bitcoin, and we keep it keeps

434
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:15,679
Speaker 1: coming back. There's a lot of people still in this

435
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:17,879
Speaker 1: industry obviously hurting right now. But I don't know that

436
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 1: I would count crypto and bitcoin completely out forever. Well,

437
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 1: I agree, I would never kind of doubt it's come

438
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,360
Speaker 1: back too many times. The difference between Cox and Silk Road, though,

439
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,720
Speaker 1: are that this guy was on the cover of every magazine,

440
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 1: um except Business Week except when he fell and had

441
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,920
Speaker 1: the great cover with in ruins, really good. But yeah,

442
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 1: he was just like Elizabeth Holmes the next buffet, which

443
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:40,640
Speaker 1: by the way, should be a bear signal every time now.

444
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 1: Also hiring Larry David, giving all these political people money. Basically,

445
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 1: I don't know. I felt red flags come up when

446
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 1: I saw f t X on every umpire in anything

447
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 1: I did. I tweeted out, I said, this is there's

448
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 1: something wrong here because MLB is not the crypto audience.

449
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:01,119
Speaker 1: These are like six the seven year old people who

450
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 1: are knock at that's how much money they were just

451
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 1: spraying everywhere they could advertise in places that weren't even

452
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 1: their target market. They sponsored a sports stadium. I mean,

453
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,640
Speaker 1: all this stuff. I've just been spending a year doing

454
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,159
Speaker 1: a book on Bogel. Who would He hated advertising. He

455
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 1: thought that was a sign that the company's misusing your money.

456
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,439
Speaker 1: Do you remember what Bogel said when we asked him

457
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 1: about crypto. Oh, he said, I wouldn't touch it over

458
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 1: my dead body. Yeah. And and well the reason he

459
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 1: would think there was the reason Bogel didn't like crypto

460
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 1: that wasn't It wasn't because of the SPF potential. It

461
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 1: was just because it's a commodity. And this is the

462
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 1: thing that crypto people miss. Sometimes crypto people trash the

463
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,199
Speaker 1: SMP five hundred in stocks and all this stuff, and

464
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 1: I'm like, it's different. Stocks have cash flow, there's something

465
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 1: of value there. Crypto is like a commodity. It's only

466
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 1: worth what someone else will pay for it. And that's

467
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 1: why Buffett and Bogel weren't hot on commodities or crypto.

468
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,679
Speaker 1: And that basic thing of crypto not having anything beneath

469
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 1: it besides what someone else will pay for it is

470
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,200
Speaker 1: the scary part where it you know it who go

471
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 1: down more and stocks have money and cash flow to

472
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 1: support them, especially in the next fun with five stocks,

473
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 1: Which is why if I told Crypto all along, don't

474
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 1: beat up on the SMP. You don't know what you're

475
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:20,159
Speaker 1: talking about. You went to Australia, people listen to trillions there,

476
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 1: would you learn? I know it's weird. You know how

477
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 1: bands are like big in Japan, you know that whole thing,

478
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 1: Or we're big in Europe, like the Pixies were a

479
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:28,640
Speaker 1: banned in the US that nobody really but in Europe

480
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 1: they were huge. Um, we're big in Australia, guys. Yeah.

481
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 1: The per capitive people who said, oh I listened to

482
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 1: trillions was way off the charts. I couldn't believe it.

483
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 1: So yeah, a lot of people are into it. I

484
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 1: think what it speaks to is the whole of media there.

485
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,239
Speaker 1: There is nobody there doing et F media, so they

486
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 1: come to their star for it. Love you Australia, James Katie,

487
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 1: thanks for joining us on Trillians, Thanks for having me,

488
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 1: Thank you, thanks for listening to Trillions until next time.

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00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 1: You can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg dot com,

490
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever else you like to listen.

491
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 1: We'd love to hear from you. We're on Twitter. I'm

492
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 1: at Joel Wepper Show. He's at Eric Faltunas. This episode

493
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:19,680
Speaker 1: of Trillions was produced by Magnets Hendrix by m