WEBVTT - NBA Teams We Love! | 2026 0:00:01.129 --> 0:00:04.689 What these young bloods have to understand, that this game 0:00:05.510 --> 0:00:09.410 has always been and will always be about buckets. 0:00:10.289 --> 0:00:11.709 Just attack the basket. 0:00:11.970 --> 0:00:13.069 Stop it! 0:00:13.100 --> 0:00:14.020 Stop it! 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:16.480 Do not do it like that! 0:00:16.600 --> 0:00:20.280 With no regard for human life! Bang! 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:20.560 Bang! 0:00:22.020 --> 0:00:27.840 I cannot believe you've done it again! 0:00:28.000 --> 0:00:28.940 Are you kidding me? 0:00:32.170 --> 0:00:36.220 Welcome to Buckets. Oh, we're back, baby. Oh, that felt good. 0:00:36.780 --> 0:00:39.640 Felt good from the cockles of my heart. That felt good. 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:44.340 Welcome to Buckets brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook. My 0:00:44.380 --> 0:00:46.400 name is Matt Moore. We are back for the 2026-27 0:00:47.020 --> 0:00:51.860 NBA season. This is your bull market for your NBA 0:00:51.940 --> 0:00:54.510 futures preview. We're going to talk about the teams that 0:00:54.530 --> 0:00:56.670 we're high on today, the teams that we want to 0:00:56.690 --> 0:00:58.590 put the money behind, the team that we want to 0:00:58.980 --> 0:01:01.500 be rooting for throughout the NBA regular season to get 0:01:01.540 --> 0:01:05.440 us that money by actually overperforming whatever the market believes 0:01:05.480 --> 0:01:08.060 that they are capable of. And to do so, I 0:01:08.120 --> 0:01:13.640 am joined by my guys, the future Jays, return to buckets. 0:01:13.770 --> 0:01:17.170 Jim Turvey from Roto Grinders, Joe Dallara from the Action 0:01:17.220 --> 0:01:21.470 Network and the Cash That podcast. Oh, I'm so glad 0:01:21.490 --> 0:01:23.470 to see you guys. I'm so glad that I got 0:01:23.569 --> 0:01:28.440 Jim out of the radish pickings. I got Joe DeLera. 0:01:28.700 --> 0:01:32.479 By the way, congrats to Joe DeLera, who put in 0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:36.780 a bet on the Sacramento Kings in preseason action and 0:01:36.890 --> 0:01:40.610 did manage to get CLV on it because he got 0:01:40.650 --> 0:01:42.530 it at six and a half. And as we record this, 0:01:43.209 --> 0:01:47.790 it's now four and a half. Great job, Joe. 0:01:47.890 --> 0:01:48.810 What could go wrong? 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:49.730 What could go wrong? 0:01:55.580 --> 0:01:57.560 Before we get started, don't forget to download the free 0:01:57.660 --> 0:01:59.660 award-winning Action Network app. And if you want to take 0:01:59.680 --> 0:02:02.180 it a step further, you can sign up for Action Pro. 0:02:02.320 --> 0:02:04.840 Our listeners get $ 20 off their first year of Action 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:11.440 Pro by using promo code POD20 at actionnetwork.com slash pro. Plus, 0:02:11.560 --> 0:02:13.940 BetSync is back in the Action app. Now you can 0:02:14.000 --> 0:02:18.520 automatically track your activity across 15-plus sportsbooks and prediction markets 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:20.200 all in one place. I've gotten a lot of comments 0:02:20.220 --> 0:02:23.420 from folks saying how much they like this feature. and 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:25.000 how much it makes a difference with them being able 0:02:25.020 --> 0:02:27.290 to make sure they're tracking everything that they want to track. 0:02:27.650 --> 0:02:29.230 So make sure to check out BetSync. Connect to your 0:02:29.250 --> 0:02:31.930 accounts once, and all your bets and trades will automatically 0:02:31.950 --> 0:02:35.410 appear as soon as you place them. No manual tracking required. 0:02:35.450 --> 0:02:37.389 You just open the app, you head to My Accounts, 0:02:37.490 --> 0:02:41.220 connect your sportsbook or prediction market, and you're ready to go. 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:41.959 All right. 0:02:43.070 --> 0:02:44.470 We are going to get started, and we're going to 0:02:44.510 --> 0:02:46.890 start with a real simple one. We got four segments 0:02:46.910 --> 0:02:48.630 to get through tonight, and we're going to talk about 0:02:48.830 --> 0:02:52.190 a number of different ways to attack basically the overs market, 0:02:52.410 --> 0:02:55.639 unders if you're doing seeding. As Jim Turvey takes a 0:02:55.639 --> 0:02:57.419 page out of Brandon Anderson's book, it makes a simple 0:02:57.460 --> 0:03:00.700 exercise more complicated than it needs to be. We have 0:03:00.740 --> 0:03:02.919 all sorts of ways to bet these over a DraftKings 0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:04.919 sports book, but we're going to start with this very 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:07.060 simple premise. Instead of looking at this from a market 0:03:07.100 --> 0:03:10.910 perspective only, we're always going to consider the market here 0:03:10.950 --> 0:03:14.530 on Buckets. Instead of thinking about this from the perspective of, 0:03:15.070 --> 0:03:17.990 you know, wanting to take extreme positions or alts, this 0:03:18.070 --> 0:03:21.910 is just simply, I want my money behind them. This 0:03:21.970 --> 0:03:23.990 is a good team. This is a good number. And 0:03:24.030 --> 0:03:27.510 this is where I want to start off my betting 0:03:27.630 --> 0:03:31.790 on NBA futures from a bull market perspective. Let's start 0:03:31.810 --> 0:03:35.240 with Jim Turvey because Jim Turvey and Joe DeLera, I 0:03:35.300 --> 0:03:38.620 gave them, they've had all summer to think about what 0:03:38.660 --> 0:03:40.660 they want to do. They've had all of this time 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:42.360 to come up with what they want to do. Granted, 0:03:42.380 --> 0:03:44.000 I only gave them about 24 hours notice on doing 0:03:44.020 --> 0:03:47.120 the show, but, but they had all this time and 0:03:47.150 --> 0:03:49.060 they did decide to take the same team. They took, 0:03:49.190 --> 0:03:51.630 they took the same. They were already, which I appreciate 0:03:51.650 --> 0:03:55.370 because we'll get out of here sooner, which is a bonus. 0:03:55.570 --> 0:03:58.990 Jim Turvey, Roto grinders. Tell me your best bet. 0:03:59.010 --> 0:04:01.050 This is going to sound really gross because the last 0:04:01.070 --> 0:04:03.890 time we saw them, it was, it was about as 0:04:03.910 --> 0:04:05.410 gross as we've seen. So I think that that may 0:04:05.430 --> 0:04:07.450 be playing into it. It's going to be the Houston rocket. 0:04:07.550 --> 0:04:11.790 So yeah, A lot of ways to attack this. So 0:04:11.830 --> 0:04:12.770 the house of intrigue. 0:04:14.030 --> 0:04:14.830 That's the law and order. 0:04:15.930 --> 0:04:17.970 Oh yeah. Even worse than the house of intrigue is 0:04:17.990 --> 0:04:20.590 a lot more. So this was a 56 win team 0:04:20.630 --> 0:04:24.230 by Pythagorean last season. That's like a regular season juggernaut 0:04:24.270 --> 0:04:26.469 right there. They did it without really beating up on 0:04:26.490 --> 0:04:28.130 the bad teams. There's a couple of teams that we 0:04:28.190 --> 0:04:31.490 see that, you know, kind of picked off those, those 0:04:31.550 --> 0:04:33.970 tanking teams that, you know, we'll, we'll talk about this later. 0:04:33.990 --> 0:04:36.570 I'm sure on maybe on the bear market or just 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:39.610 as we go through this one, but, Those tanking teams 0:04:39.670 --> 0:04:42.090 aren't going to be as tanky, which kind of plays 0:04:42.110 --> 0:04:44.550 into why I'm doing this best bet as is. But 0:04:45.130 --> 0:04:47.680 they didn't really beat up on bad teams. Again, 56-win 0:04:47.690 --> 0:04:50.440 team by Pythag. And that was without two really key 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:53.200 members that we're going to get this season. We're getting 0:04:53.260 --> 0:04:56.460 Fred VanVleet back. We're getting Steven Adams' healthiest start this season. 0:04:56.480 --> 0:04:58.140 We don't know how long that will last with him always. 0:04:58.460 --> 0:05:00.980 But we're also getting Marcus Smart. They really didn't lose 0:05:01.040 --> 0:05:05.170 too much. Again, we remember that playoff. Brutal playoff loss 0:05:05.270 --> 0:05:08.000 to an undermanned Lakers team. That was really bad. But 0:05:08.040 --> 0:05:11.260 this isn't a regular season or a postseason bet. This 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:14.080 is a regular season bet. We saw an Amin Thompson 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:16.160 like half breakout. I still think there's a lot more 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:20.030 ceiling to go there. Same with Reed Shepard. And Reed 0:05:20.050 --> 0:05:22.170 Shepard's like the eighth man on this team because now 0:05:22.210 --> 0:05:24.150 they have some of that ball creation that was so 0:05:24.190 --> 0:05:26.790 difficult for them at times. Van Vliet doesn't have to 0:05:26.830 --> 0:05:29.270 be an incredible scorer. He doesn't have to be the 0:05:29.310 --> 0:05:32.349 guy who, you know, ruins Matt's postseason with, you know, 0:05:32.610 --> 0:05:35.310 incredible scoring games in the postseason. All we need is 0:05:35.330 --> 0:05:37.430 kind of a steady hand on the ship here. And 0:05:37.450 --> 0:05:41.240 between him and Marcus Smart, I think that the ball 0:05:41.260 --> 0:05:42.780 creation side of things is going to be a lot better. 0:05:43.350 --> 0:05:46.429 Ime Adoko is an incredible regular season coach. That defense 0:05:46.490 --> 0:05:48.290 is going to be elite. The offense is going to 0:05:48.310 --> 0:05:50.770 be good enough. We got Kevin Durant still a guy. 0:05:50.790 --> 0:05:52.670 I think, like I said, I think Ahmed Thompson has 0:05:52.690 --> 0:05:55.250 another level. Steven Adams is so key for them and 0:05:55.410 --> 0:05:58.130 kind of gain them those second chance looks. Alperin Shingun 0:05:58.210 --> 0:06:01.290 did improve last year. Maybe not as much as some 0:06:01.310 --> 0:06:03.670 would have expected, but I still think there's some, some 0:06:03.690 --> 0:06:06.920 to be there. They actually have a slightly favorable schedule 0:06:06.950 --> 0:06:09.659 as well this season by kind of rest, travel and opponents. 0:06:09.900 --> 0:06:12.260 You look through that. So I'm really kind of all 0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:15.880 over them in a bunch of ways. My favorite is 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:18.370 the best bet there. You see the under 5.5 seed. 0:06:19.150 --> 0:06:21.289 Talk about this with a few teams here. I think 0:06:21.330 --> 0:06:24.089 it's more prevalent in the East because of the setup 0:06:24.230 --> 0:06:26.530 of the East. But I kind of like playing these 0:06:26.610 --> 0:06:30.180 seed bets instead of the over-unders because there is some 0:06:30.210 --> 0:06:32.480 worry that I have that all of these win totals 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:34.340 are like a win or two too high. So I 0:06:34.380 --> 0:06:36.280 do like looking at some of the unders in general. 0:06:36.320 --> 0:06:38.159 Today we're obviously talking about teams we like to over for. 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:42.820 But those free wins that teams got for years, I 0:06:42.860 --> 0:06:44.520 think it's going to all condense. I think you could 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:48.620 see the Thunder and Spurs may well still rattle off 0:06:48.700 --> 0:06:50.820 in the 60s for wins. But I think getting to 0:06:50.820 --> 0:06:53.160 50 wins is going to be difficult. So if I 0:06:53.180 --> 0:06:55.030 can bet the Rockets to do this as a seed 0:06:55.070 --> 0:06:57.350 bet instead, that's going to be my best bet. I 0:06:57.430 --> 0:06:59.330 do like the over, I think the flat line is 0:06:59.330 --> 0:07:00.770 47.5 now. I think you can still get a 46.5 0:07:00.770 --> 0:07:07.410 kind of juiced minus 130 out there. Um, I like 0:07:07.430 --> 0:07:09.450 the all win total to 50, but again, those are 0:07:09.670 --> 0:07:12.690 lighter sprinkles because I really do like kind of betting 0:07:12.730 --> 0:07:15.890 teams in combination against each other. I like them. There's, 0:07:15.930 --> 0:07:18.730 there's ways to go head to head against teams. Um, Philadelphia, 0:07:18.750 --> 0:07:20.270 I'm not going to get to be on the bearish episode. 0:07:20.390 --> 0:07:22.610 Philadelphia would be my number one pick there. You can 0:07:22.630 --> 0:07:25.190 get Houston to win more games in Philadelphia at plus 0:07:25.290 --> 0:07:28.550 one 25 out there. I love that. Um, and you 0:07:28.570 --> 0:07:29.890 can bet if you, if you want kind of the 0:07:29.950 --> 0:07:32.870 ceiling of this, you can go division at plus seven 50, uh, 0:07:33.250 --> 0:07:36.510 at draft Kings, or you can go the two seed exact, uh, 0:07:37.230 --> 0:07:39.210 um if you because i kind of think the spurs 0:07:39.650 --> 0:07:41.980 you know there's another way to bet kind of rockets 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:44.640 over spurs get the exact two seed they fall behind 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:46.920 the thunder um that's at 10 to 1 out there 0:07:46.940 --> 0:07:48.960 that came down from 12 to 1 on on posting 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.020 so a lot of ways to attack this there's even 0:07:51.040 --> 0:07:54.020 some fun team specials um on draft kings love those 0:07:54.060 --> 0:07:57.200 team specials um they got an amin thompson and alper 0:07:57.220 --> 0:08:00.070 and shangoon one that also includes the rockets division there 0:08:00.110 --> 0:08:02.170 that's like now we're on the highest rung and ladder 0:08:02.250 --> 0:08:04.550 you can go 40 to 1 up there so A 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:06.850 billion ways to bet the Rockets. I want my money 0:08:07.430 --> 0:08:09.510 on the Rockets this year in the regular season, and 0:08:09.530 --> 0:08:11.950 then I'll abandon them and feed them hard once we 0:08:11.970 --> 0:08:12.750 get to the postseason. 0:08:13.570 --> 0:08:15.890 Okay, lots of stuff to get into there. And I 0:08:15.890 --> 0:08:18.590 have many thoughts on this as well. I do like, 0:08:18.930 --> 0:08:20.250 as much as I give you crap about it, I 0:08:20.290 --> 0:08:23.150 do like the underplay on the seeding structure. I am 0:08:23.630 --> 0:08:27.010 not sure on how the dynamics are going to play 0:08:27.100 --> 0:08:30.660 out with the win total stuff. The idea is kind 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:34.110 of like, well, the teams will try more. And so 0:08:34.130 --> 0:08:36.640 they'll get more wins versus the top ones. But the 0:08:36.660 --> 0:08:39.660 problem is like the other teams know this too. I actually, 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:43.260 a part of, because it's not just that I'm the 0:08:43.280 --> 0:08:45.440 most contrarian son of a bitch alive, but also because 0:08:45.460 --> 0:08:47.170 I'm the most contrarian son of a bitch alive. There's 0:08:47.190 --> 0:08:50.130 this part of me that's like, look, if you're, I've 0:08:50.150 --> 0:08:52.930 talked to players. So I know the players are like, 0:08:53.670 --> 0:08:56.110 if you, if I know that they're sitting everybody and 0:08:56.150 --> 0:08:59.079 it's an easy game, I'm not, I'm not going to 0:08:59.100 --> 0:09:00.640 warm up as hard. I'm not going to go out 0:09:00.679 --> 0:09:02.220 as hard. I'm not going to push myself. We should 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:05.380 beat these guys versus if it's every night, like you 0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:08.280 better bring it or they're going to beat you. That 0:09:08.320 --> 0:09:10.579 changes their competitive environment. Now I may wear them out. 0:09:11.059 --> 0:09:11.260 Right. 0:09:12.140 --> 0:09:16.310 And I agree just on simple principle of, I gave 0:09:16.370 --> 0:09:20.689 the tankers a four points of bump on, on this, 0:09:20.750 --> 0:09:22.850 which is double what I usually give because the great, 0:09:22.870 --> 0:09:25.480 the tanking was so egregious last year. Yeah. I did 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:28.400 not give the Kings 44 points because they were, they 0:09:28.440 --> 0:09:34.500 were organic whole grain grass fed crap last year. These 0:09:34.540 --> 0:09:38.280 are credit for being authentically bad. They are authentically indie 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:42.300 rock bad. Um, but like I gave all those teams 0:09:42.320 --> 0:09:45.540 four points of value and you still wind up with like, yeah, no, the, 0:09:45.700 --> 0:09:47.480 the odds of the, of the other team winning in 0:09:47.500 --> 0:09:51.199 most of these cases, it's like 70%. Um, I will 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:52.780 talk about my thoughts on the Rockets, but I want 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:54.910 to get to Joe's because Joe also likes the Rockets 0:09:54.929 --> 0:09:57.770 and is taking just the win total. Joe, your cap 0:09:57.990 --> 0:09:58.910 on the Houston Rockets over. 0:09:59.550 --> 0:09:59.969 Yeah, I'm thinking. 0:10:00.010 --> 0:10:03.000 The win total. I'm not as concerned, I think, in 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:05.020 part because of the Western Conference of it all. I 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:07.380 think the Western Conference is generally a little bit weaker 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:11.040 than like top to bottom than it has been historically, 0:10:11.660 --> 0:10:15.320 really over the past like 15, 20 years almost. The 0:10:15.340 --> 0:10:18.440 Western Conference has been looked at, especially like as a juggernaut. 0:10:19.210 --> 0:10:20.870 And I don't think that it's the same. I think 0:10:20.890 --> 0:10:23.330 that you have the two teams at the top that 0:10:23.370 --> 0:10:25.010 you could argue, you know, I think Oklahoma city is 0:10:25.030 --> 0:10:27.870 going to be unbelievable again this year. I think they 0:10:27.890 --> 0:10:30.189 should be a lot healthier and San Antonio. You wonder 0:10:30.210 --> 0:10:31.910 if there is a little bit of like a title 0:10:32.050 --> 0:10:35.630 ish hangover. And you wonder if maybe that is a 0:10:35.630 --> 0:10:38.290 little bit of a drawback, but Houston was regular season 0:10:38.450 --> 0:10:42.709 elite last year and they did so without some key 0:10:43.030 --> 0:10:46.780 like players. Steven Adams got hurt relatively early in the season, 0:10:47.210 --> 0:10:50.530 was very important for their rebounding and getting extra possessions, 0:10:50.590 --> 0:10:53.510 especially when you have an offense that's maybe like not 0:10:53.650 --> 0:10:56.490 as good. And now you're going to get Fred Van 0:10:56.510 --> 0:10:58.510 Vliet in there. You're getting Marcus Smart in there. You're 0:10:58.530 --> 0:11:01.490 just generally bringing in better ball handling that I think 0:11:01.570 --> 0:11:02.650 is going to take a little bit of a load 0:11:02.690 --> 0:11:05.990 off of Kevin Durant from a facilitation perspective. But I 0:11:06.070 --> 0:11:08.220 also think it's really important for Kevin Durant to just 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:10.450 be able to shoot the ball. Like there were times 0:11:10.490 --> 0:11:13.189 where you'd watch the games and you go get Kevin 0:11:13.230 --> 0:11:16.240 Durant the basketball and they just could not get it. 0:11:16.470 --> 0:11:18.350 You just couldn't get on the ball. Like I've never 0:11:18.370 --> 0:11:20.130 seen anything like it. It was like you couldn't get 0:11:20.530 --> 0:11:24.979 this incredible closer shooter, whatever the basketball because he couldn't 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:27.990 inbound the ball to himself. And I think that having 0:11:28.090 --> 0:11:31.300 that floor there and getting that like veteran presence is 0:11:31.320 --> 0:11:33.380 going to be really important for them. I think that 0:11:33.640 --> 0:11:36.740 Ahmed Thompson could definitely take a leap. He obviously needs 0:11:36.780 --> 0:11:38.540 to improve on his jump shot, but I think that 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:39.880 he can definitely take a little bit of a leap. 0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:43.390 He's still young, still improving. And I think Jabari Smith 0:11:43.429 --> 0:11:45.469 was really good for this team last year in the 0:11:45.490 --> 0:11:47.490 minutes that he was able to get. But I do 0:11:47.550 --> 0:11:50.650 think that getting, you know, a little bit more like 0:11:51.290 --> 0:11:54.819 creation and along with some perimeter shot making in Fred 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.100 Van Vliet and even Marcus Smart is like really, really 0:11:57.140 --> 0:11:59.760 important for this team. So to me, I think they're 0:11:59.780 --> 0:12:03.850 a well-coached team. I think that their floor is extremely high. 0:12:03.950 --> 0:12:05.730 And I do think that even if guys are in 0:12:05.770 --> 0:12:09.449 and out, whether it's injury or age or, or like, 0:12:09.630 --> 0:12:12.580 you know, load management to a certain degree, their floor 0:12:12.670 --> 0:12:15.380 to me, I think is so high with the talent 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:17.880 they have across the board that in this type of 0:12:17.900 --> 0:12:20.090 Western conference, where We're looking at a lot of these 0:12:20.110 --> 0:12:23.430 teams that maybe have injuries questions at the top. I 0:12:23.510 --> 0:12:25.760 don't feel that way about the Houston Rockets. I feel 0:12:25.780 --> 0:12:28.700 like they're going to have a very stable floor and 0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:30.520 I like them to go over their win total. So 0:12:30.640 --> 0:12:34.040 I naturally like Jim's bet too, but I'm not as 0:12:34.100 --> 0:12:37.740 concerned about them from a win total perspective either because 0:12:37.760 --> 0:12:41.219 they're in the Western Conference. So I like Houston. I 0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:43.380 think that they're very deep and I think they just 0:12:43.420 --> 0:12:45.910 have a lot of optionality that they didn't necessarily have 0:12:45.990 --> 0:12:48.910 last year. And I think it kind of put I 0:12:48.929 --> 0:12:51.940 think it forced like Reed Shepard and Amin Thompson to, 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:55.600 and even Alper and Shangoon to do things that, you know, 0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:58.140 maybe they weren't necessarily ready to be asked to do. 0:12:58.580 --> 0:12:59.740 And I think that they're going to be able to 0:12:59.780 --> 0:13:01.559 kind of fall back on some of the veteran leadership 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:03.819 this year too. Yeah. 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:06.570 This is to me is like a very simple over. 0:13:09.510 --> 0:13:13.250 They won 52 last year and they fucking hated each other. Yeah. 0:13:14.580 --> 0:13:17.459 And they add Fred Van Vliet at zero cost. Nothing 0:13:17.500 --> 0:13:20.820 went out. They just add Fred Van Vliet and theoretically 0:13:20.860 --> 0:13:23.700 more Steven Adams for however long he's around. Yeah. So 0:13:23.740 --> 0:13:26.990 it's like player that does essential thing that they do 0:13:27.050 --> 0:13:30.490 not have play point guard player that augments them by 0:13:30.530 --> 0:13:34.970 providing interior defense and rebounding, which is a huge key 0:13:34.990 --> 0:13:40.589 to their success. Internal development from three good young players is, 0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:46.960 And they already won 52. What? Why? 0:13:47.020 --> 0:13:47.220 Yeah. 0:13:47.500 --> 0:13:51.260 So I just, I, this, this market to me feels 0:13:51.380 --> 0:13:56.790 very much extrapolated from kind of, Oh, the Lakers got 0:13:56.890 --> 0:14:00.390 added Walker Kessler and the wolves got lamello ball. And 0:14:00.429 --> 0:14:03.670 like they have the, the rockets have the best combination of, 0:14:03.770 --> 0:14:07.790 which is they have continuity and runway. And you very 0:14:07.850 --> 0:14:10.360 rarely get numbers under 50 for those types of teams 0:14:10.380 --> 0:14:13.229 because So over 47 and a half is one of 0:14:13.270 --> 0:14:15.730 my best bets as well. I love this bet. This 0:14:15.790 --> 0:14:17.930 is a great pick from both of you. The seating angle, 0:14:17.950 --> 0:14:19.380 I think is really good as well. 0:14:19.410 --> 0:14:19.720 Jim. 0:14:20.100 --> 0:14:23.380 I like the ladder opportunities there as well. I do 0:14:23.420 --> 0:14:25.060 think like I have them as the third best team 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:26.860 in the Western conference and it's by a little bit 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:29.940 like it is significantly. The other thing is like, I 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:35.850 actually ran this year percentile outcomes, a 25th percentile outcome for, for, 0:14:36.190 --> 0:14:39.850 for me, for them is 48.6. So I have them 0:14:39.910 --> 0:14:43.990 built as if they have a, 25th percentile outcome in 0:14:44.030 --> 0:14:47.390 terms of win loss variance, they still wind up going 0:14:47.500 --> 0:14:48.290 over this by a game. 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:51.739 So do you have them as any, I don't know where, 0:14:51.780 --> 0:14:53.800 I think you're lower on the Spurs like me as well. 0:14:53.820 --> 0:14:55.820 Do you, are you been division or is it a 0:14:55.860 --> 0:14:58.540 little too, is the gap a little too big? No. 0:14:58.620 --> 0:15:01.480 So the problem is like the metrics, I'm with you 0:15:01.620 --> 0:15:05.040 on like, I don't know, going to the finals played 0:15:05.060 --> 0:15:07.780 a lot of minutes and everything can't go as right. 0:15:07.940 --> 0:15:10.000 I don't necessarily love the roster as much as everybody 0:15:10.060 --> 0:15:13.440 else does because But then I put it into the 0:15:13.500 --> 0:15:17.800 little machine, and it spits out like, no, the Spurs 0:15:17.820 --> 0:15:20.640 are going to win 60 games, you idiot. So I'm 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:23.930 not touching that. I'm not touching division. This is just 0:15:24.350 --> 0:15:26.890 Rockets upside, I think, is the way to go. Don't 0:15:26.910 --> 0:15:27.850 put them against anybody. 0:15:28.470 --> 0:15:29.970 It feels a little too tough for them to get 0:15:30.050 --> 0:15:32.210 to the division, just at least in the number. I 0:15:32.230 --> 0:15:34.050 think it's like the floor is high. I think they're 0:15:34.070 --> 0:15:35.500 going to be really good in the regular season. I 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:37.820 don't know if the ceiling is there. I think if 0:15:37.860 --> 0:15:39.850 they're going to hit ceiling– I think a lot of 0:15:39.890 --> 0:15:41.790 things have to, I think basically everything has to go 0:15:41.850 --> 0:15:45.310 right where we say like, I'm in has a jump shot. Now, um, 0:15:45.470 --> 0:15:48.550 Fred VanVleet looks awesome. Reed Shepard all of a sudden 0:15:48.850 --> 0:15:51.290 is not only knocking down 40% of his threes, but 0:15:51.370 --> 0:15:53.950 also isn't a total liability on the defensive side of 0:15:53.970 --> 0:15:54.250 the ball. 0:15:54.670 --> 0:15:57.710 We'll have time to, I think Jim, like, unless it's 0:15:57.750 --> 0:15:59.550 one of those situations where it's just injury and that's 0:15:59.580 --> 0:16:03.100 just that then the breaks, right? Like I, if spurs 0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:05.860 are healthy, rockets are healthy, but we get to like out, 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:08.490 if we get through the cup and it's like, Oh, 0:16:10.100 --> 0:16:12.560 Rockets are one game behind and their, and their underlying 0:16:12.580 --> 0:16:14.970 metrics are better. I will bet you the market has, 0:16:15.150 --> 0:16:17.710 will have not adjusted enough, not to be worth it 0:16:17.730 --> 0:16:18.190 to go there. 0:16:19.130 --> 0:16:20.930 Um, yeah, it's a good call. Okay. 0:16:21.490 --> 0:16:24.370 Uh, mine to, to vary it up and keep it different. 0:16:24.390 --> 0:16:27.640 Cause I could have just thirded this, uh, but I 0:16:27.660 --> 0:16:30.420 will go ahead and, uh, I will go with the 0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:38.910 Celtics over 50 and a half. Um, I don't, this 0:16:38.970 --> 0:16:41.360 feels a bit, this number is kind of sentiment based 0:16:41.390 --> 0:16:43.340 and it's pretty high, but I do feel like there's 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:45.400 a lot of sentiment in the market of like, Oh, 0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:46.620 the Celtics are old news. 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:48.640 Ooh, Sixers. Ooh. 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:49.700 Oh, the Knicks won the title. 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:50.280 Ooh. 0:16:50.380 --> 0:16:52.340 And I'm kind of like, I don't know, man, Joe 0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:54.860 Missoula just kind of cranks them out. I wrote a 0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:57.119 thing for my sub stack the other day that was 0:16:57.160 --> 0:17:00.300 talking about basically linking Joe Missoula to capitalism and just 0:17:00.340 --> 0:17:03.400 basically being like, he is an inexorable force towards efficiency. 0:17:03.460 --> 0:17:05.240 Cause he kind of is, he's dead inside. And it's 0:17:05.260 --> 0:17:08.340 just like, He said like, I like open threes, but 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:11.980 what he really means there is like, he just wants 0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:14.000 the simplest, easiest path to a win. 0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:14.800 That's it. 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:19.120 He just like, if last year, the, the most efficient 0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:22.219 path to a win was winning the possession game by 0:17:22.300 --> 0:17:24.760 not turning the ball over and crashing the offensive glass 0:17:25.500 --> 0:17:27.609 and Jalen Brown taking mid range jumpers. So, you know 0:17:27.619 --> 0:17:29.870 what the Celtics did? They didn't turn the ball over 0:17:30.369 --> 0:17:32.449 and they crashed the offensive glass and Jalen Brown made 0:17:32.470 --> 0:17:35.290 a bunch of jumpers. Now you have Tatum back. And 0:17:35.310 --> 0:17:37.530 for me, this is just pretty simple. If they went 0:17:37.650 --> 0:17:40.690 over and everyone was like, damn with the Celtics and 0:17:40.710 --> 0:17:43.109 they get the two seed last year with Jalen Brown 0:17:44.550 --> 0:17:47.130 and no Jason Tatum. And I think Tatum is better 0:17:47.280 --> 0:17:49.670 and better equipped for the system than Brown is, which 0:17:49.730 --> 0:17:52.580 I do. And as a better defender, which I do, 0:17:53.100 --> 0:17:55.560 and you're taking Brown out and you're adding Jason Tatum 0:17:56.700 --> 0:18:00.210 and you're adding Paul George and And I love the 0:18:00.230 --> 0:18:03.550 Paul George fit. I'm not expecting marvelous things from Paul 0:18:03.590 --> 0:18:05.270 George at this age and this point in his career. 0:18:05.650 --> 0:18:07.350 He's going to miss a lot of games. I do 0:18:07.390 --> 0:18:10.109 think there's a very strong possibility Peyton Pritchard puts in together. 0:18:12.130 --> 0:18:14.530 Is Peyton Pritchard an all-star type of year? It's not 0:18:14.550 --> 0:18:16.609 going to shock me if Peyton Pritchard does that. I'm 0:18:16.630 --> 0:18:20.710 not on the wagon. I have begrudgingly accepted that Peyton 0:18:20.730 --> 0:18:25.379 Pritchard is really fucking good. Keita is awesome down low. 0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:28.660 I like their depth. All of their young guys, Jordan Walsh, 0:18:28.700 --> 0:18:30.500 et cetera, are all going to be a year older. 0:18:30.940 --> 0:18:35.420 Hugo Gonzalez, noted, didn't trade him for Giannis. All of 0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:38.720 this stuff, which by the way, I found out, hang on, 0:18:38.840 --> 0:18:44.160 I got to think about this. The decisions that Boston 0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:50.130 made this summer are not what they appear to be. 0:18:50.690 --> 0:18:52.550 And that's all I can really say. And this is 0:18:52.590 --> 0:18:55.750 not like a- You're going to get yelled at for 0:18:55.869 --> 0:18:57.230 beatposting on Twitter. 0:18:57.350 --> 0:18:59.149 That's like the king of beatposts right there. 0:18:59.170 --> 0:19:01.710 Yeah, I am. What's the matter, vague boy? Yeah, I 0:19:01.730 --> 0:19:04.469 get it. I get it. Anyway, but I do think 0:19:04.490 --> 0:19:06.590 the Celtics are just like, they're fundamentally going to score 0:19:06.609 --> 0:19:08.600 a lot. They're going to win a lot. They're going 0:19:08.619 --> 0:19:12.480 to absolutely crush the regular season. So I think the 0:19:12.500 --> 0:19:14.980 Boston Celtics over 50 and a half is a really 0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:17.340 good bet. I have them at 58. That's how good 0:19:17.380 --> 0:19:19.119 I think that they are. I'm not going to be 0:19:19.140 --> 0:19:22.340 surprised if they win the division. They're not my division bet. Um, 0:19:22.420 --> 0:19:23.880 I'm probably gonna have to put some money on them just, 0:19:24.180 --> 0:19:27.440 just from this, but, uh, I, I, I love the 50, 0:19:27.440 --> 0:19:30.850 the over 50 and a half. Typically these numbers above 50, 0:19:30.850 --> 0:19:33.090 I try and stay away from because the history says 0:19:33.109 --> 0:19:35.730 that you should avoid them over the last 15 years. 0:19:35.790 --> 0:19:38.690 The underrate between 50 and 55 is about 60%. Um, 0:19:39.710 --> 0:19:40.929 so it takes a lot for me to get me 0:19:41.030 --> 0:19:43.230 on an over at 50 and a half, but I 0:19:43.270 --> 0:19:45.109 still find this to be below market. And I still 0:19:45.130 --> 0:19:46.570 think the upside is there. I just think that their 0:19:46.630 --> 0:19:48.810 floor is so freaking high. So I'll take the boss. 0:19:48.850 --> 0:19:49.030 Yeah. 0:19:50.160 --> 0:19:53.180 You like the more standard approach here, and I respect 0:19:53.300 --> 0:19:54.659 the over 50 and a half. Can I give you 0:19:54.680 --> 0:19:57.140 a bet that I'm almost certain you're going to like 0:19:57.180 --> 0:20:01.980 even more? Sure. A direct head-to-head, more wins than Philadelphia 0:20:02.060 --> 0:20:05.909 is minus 115 out there. That's fun. 0:20:06.310 --> 0:20:09.750 Yeah, I mean, it's just I think Tatum's better than Brown. 0:20:09.770 --> 0:20:13.640 I agree. And then you add the best offensive rebounder 0:20:13.660 --> 0:20:16.060 in the NBA, Mitchell Robinson as well, which is like 0:20:16.260 --> 0:20:20.719 adding just extra possessions, which I think actually works out 0:20:20.780 --> 0:20:24.240 really well with what Missoula likes to do with Missoula 0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:27.340 ball because it's all threes, which are higher variance. But 0:20:27.359 --> 0:20:29.940 if you can trim down the variance by adding offensive 0:20:30.000 --> 0:20:34.690 rebounds with Mitchell Robinson, I think that's an incredible combination 0:20:34.730 --> 0:20:36.410 that you can kind of get there. And they really 0:20:36.470 --> 0:20:39.420 didn't have a big... that could line up with a 0:20:39.440 --> 0:20:41.940 lot of other bigs in the NBA. When they went 0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:45.800 and played a team, if you went and played a 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:50.330 Wemby or a Jokic or an Embiid or even now 0:20:50.369 --> 0:20:52.929 a Towns or somebody like that, you need to have 0:20:53.310 --> 0:20:56.010 somebody that you can put out there. Keita was just 0:20:56.050 --> 0:20:59.909 getting crushed. Vucevic had zero chance. Even if Mitch can 0:20:59.930 --> 0:21:02.280 only give you 20 minutes, it's 20 minutes of ball 0:21:02.300 --> 0:21:05.350 that you just didn't have before. So I think they improved. 0:21:05.390 --> 0:21:07.810 And then I also think like Derek White had probably 0:21:07.830 --> 0:21:09.949 the worst year I've ever seen for a guy that 0:21:09.970 --> 0:21:13.320 I expected to do amazing things last year. And like, 0:21:13.540 --> 0:21:16.020 I don't think that he's that bad of a shooter. 0:21:16.180 --> 0:21:18.419 I think he just had a really bad year. Like, 0:21:18.820 --> 0:21:20.340 I think it was I think he was being asked 0:21:20.380 --> 0:21:23.000 to do a lot of things that maybe were out 0:21:23.040 --> 0:21:25.160 of his comfort zone. And it was he just didn't 0:21:25.180 --> 0:21:27.740 really scale that well. I think that he'll scale better 0:21:27.820 --> 0:21:30.400 with Tatum than he did with Brown. And a lot 0:21:30.420 --> 0:21:31.940 of that has to do with what Tatum kind of 0:21:31.960 --> 0:21:34.270 brings to the table in terms of creation for his 0:21:34.310 --> 0:21:35.450 teammates and things like that. 0:21:36.490 --> 0:21:41.110 Joe making the Celtics over about Mitchell Robinson. That's good. Perfect. 0:21:41.130 --> 0:21:41.830 Perfectly done. 0:21:45.780 --> 0:21:47.880 I will say they don't, the DK doesn't have the 0:21:48.280 --> 0:21:52.290 wind matchup that I really want up. which is that 0:21:52.310 --> 0:21:55.909 I actually don't want Celtics versus Sixers. I want Celtics 0:21:55.930 --> 0:21:59.370 versus Knicks. But we'll talk about that one on Wednesday. 0:21:59.390 --> 0:22:04.899 Wait, can I... Because I like this one in my name, 0:22:05.080 --> 0:22:07.020 so I'll just do that right here super quick. And 0:22:07.040 --> 0:22:10.060 to say that I like the division with the fear that... 0:22:10.500 --> 0:22:12.020 the Knicks, I kind of feel like they might just 0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:14.160 nuggets it up where like the last few years, like 0:22:14.400 --> 0:22:17.010 we're all like, they really should play for the post season. 0:22:17.310 --> 0:22:19.350 And then we get to like the last month or 0:22:19.710 --> 0:22:23.150 why are there starters playing 35 minutes and pushing like 0:22:23.210 --> 0:22:26.650 in clearing this winter? That's my biggest fear with Celtics 0:22:26.670 --> 0:22:28.889 division and like feeding the Knicks. I'm with you on 0:22:28.950 --> 0:22:30.990 wanting to fade the Knicks. I just kind of think 0:22:31.010 --> 0:22:33.050 they might nuggets it up, even though they really shouldn't. 0:22:33.070 --> 0:22:35.090 These teams can't help themselves. It seems like. 0:22:36.080 --> 0:22:40.280 Well, when they trade Carl Anthony towns for, you know, 0:22:41.280 --> 0:22:43.639 I'm trying to think who, what, what Patrick Williams, it's 0:22:43.660 --> 0:22:43.980 going to be. 0:22:44.680 --> 0:22:45.480 That'll be the move. 0:22:45.850 --> 0:22:46.750 Let's trade him for Jokic. 0:22:47.650 --> 0:22:48.109 Don't worry. 0:22:48.590 --> 0:22:53.369 Let's see. I'm trying to think. I'll come up with 0:22:53.410 --> 0:22:55.990 a Hornets parade at some point. 0:22:56.010 --> 0:22:57.940 Diabate straight up. 0:22:57.930 --> 0:22:58.380 There you go. 0:22:58.470 --> 0:22:58.650 Yeah. 0:22:58.710 --> 0:22:59.900 I'll get you your guy Diabate. 0:23:00.800 --> 0:23:01.060 Okay. 0:23:01.080 --> 0:23:02.320 So those are our best bets. We'll come back to 0:23:02.340 --> 0:23:03.500 those at the end of the show. I want to 0:23:03.540 --> 0:23:06.420 move on and I want to talk about our moonshot plays. 0:23:07.190 --> 0:23:08.570 These are the ones that if they go over, they 0:23:08.590 --> 0:23:10.070 go way over. These are the teams that we want 0:23:10.090 --> 0:23:13.030 to play the extremes on. These are basically the island 0:23:13.070 --> 0:23:16.880 plays if we're doing it in Brandon Anderson's parlance. This 0:23:16.910 --> 0:23:19.320 could include a market over under, but you like the 0:23:19.480 --> 0:23:23.000 upside and the alts better. You can do derivatives, division, 0:23:23.060 --> 0:23:24.880 whatever you want. You can get funky with this one. 0:23:25.980 --> 0:23:28.540 Let's go to Joe Dallara first. Joe, what's your moonshot play? 0:23:29.260 --> 0:23:32.480 So I like the Indiana Pacers. I think that this 0:23:32.560 --> 0:23:36.260 team is ready to go. Like they looked okay when 0:23:36.740 --> 0:23:39.500 Siakam was playing. And then, you know, they kind of, 0:23:39.740 --> 0:23:41.940 I think a lot of the problem is with Indiana. 0:23:42.140 --> 0:23:45.240 They tried really hard last year. They made a trade 0:23:45.260 --> 0:23:48.850 for zoo, which I liked. I liked the personnel ad. 0:23:48.880 --> 0:23:50.680 I think the trade was a little weird in terms 0:23:50.720 --> 0:23:54.010 of what the schematics of it were. But I think 0:23:54.030 --> 0:23:57.669 that everything about Indiana just revolves around Halliburton. Like everybody 0:23:57.710 --> 0:24:02.040 bet Indiana, on Nemhard and like Neesmith and all those 0:24:02.080 --> 0:24:05.879 guys to be like most improved player, just not realizing 0:24:05.940 --> 0:24:09.440 that Halliburton is just the guy. Like that team was 0:24:09.560 --> 0:24:12.880 trash without him. Like they could not figure out anything. 0:24:13.440 --> 0:24:16.770 And I think that getting Halliburton there, obviously you don't 0:24:16.810 --> 0:24:19.570 have Matherin, but I don't, whatever. I don't think that 0:24:19.609 --> 0:24:22.130 makes a huge difference here. I think that Carlisle was 0:24:22.190 --> 0:24:26.960 kind of indifferent towards Matherin. in his usage, in the 0:24:27.000 --> 0:24:29.220 way he fit into the scheme and everything like that. 0:24:30.140 --> 0:24:32.119 I think that this is a team that when you 0:24:32.140 --> 0:24:35.060 get Halliburton back, he's saying he's healthy. He's saying he's better. 0:24:35.800 --> 0:24:38.580 He doesn't look as swollen as he did like mid 0:24:38.640 --> 0:24:40.520 last year when he was giving some of those interviews 0:24:40.540 --> 0:24:43.300 saying he was just sick. He looks like he's healthy. 0:24:43.320 --> 0:24:45.500 He looks like he's ready to go. That dude is 0:24:45.760 --> 0:24:50.270 an incredible basketball player, very smart, very talented from not 0:24:50.290 --> 0:24:53.230 only a scoring perspective, but a facilitating perspective. I think 0:24:53.250 --> 0:24:56.600 you bring him in I think that just dramatically increases 0:24:56.660 --> 0:25:00.310 the ceiling of this team. Halliburton's an all-NBA caliber player. 0:25:00.330 --> 0:25:02.200 You can bet that. It's like minus 110 for him 0:25:02.220 --> 0:25:05.890 to beat any all-NBA team. I don't mind that. But 0:25:05.930 --> 0:25:08.110 I think the Pacers to win the division is reasonable. 0:25:08.750 --> 0:25:13.230 They're plus 370. You're in this division where the Pistons 0:25:13.390 --> 0:25:17.330 obviously have whatever they have going on locker room-wise. And 0:25:17.369 --> 0:25:20.389 you have the Cavs, who we've continued to watch, and 0:25:20.430 --> 0:25:22.649 you're just like, eh. they're not it. Like they're just, 0:25:22.850 --> 0:25:24.690 they keep rolling out the same team and they don't 0:25:24.710 --> 0:25:27.690 get any better. They're just exactly the same team. So, 0:25:27.810 --> 0:25:29.790 you know, like maybe their floor is high, but I 0:25:30.070 --> 0:25:32.190 don't think anybody's scared of them. Then you have the 0:25:32.230 --> 0:25:33.909 bulls in the box who are both probably gonna be 0:25:33.930 --> 0:25:37.000 pretty bad. So I think that looking at this team, 0:25:37.240 --> 0:25:39.379 you can bet them there. And I also think that 0:25:39.420 --> 0:25:41.179 one of the players that I'm interested in betting, and 0:25:41.200 --> 0:25:42.379 I think it's a little bit more of like a 0:25:42.420 --> 0:25:45.369 moonshot play. And I think that this ties in directly 0:25:45.460 --> 0:25:49.900 with Indiana being good. is zoo to be all defense 0:25:50.119 --> 0:25:52.800 at 30 to one is out there. I think that 0:25:52.880 --> 0:25:55.830 he's somebody that there was chatter about him two years 0:25:55.869 --> 0:25:58.370 ago for defensive player of the year. He was really 0:25:58.390 --> 0:26:00.469 like the first guy off of the first team. He 0:26:00.490 --> 0:26:03.690 was second team, all like all defense. And at 30 0:26:03.690 --> 0:26:05.750 to one, I think that you look at this Indiana 0:26:05.790 --> 0:26:08.750 team and you say, okay, well you're adding him there 0:26:08.930 --> 0:26:12.100 as a clear anchor to this team. And they've kind 0:26:12.150 --> 0:26:15.540 of needed that like real center, I think to help 0:26:15.720 --> 0:26:18.649 anchor the defense and, And we've seen him raise the 0:26:18.690 --> 0:26:22.510 level of defenses in LA. So I think that he's 0:26:22.550 --> 0:26:24.250 really developed as a player. I think he's going to 0:26:24.290 --> 0:26:27.740 have pretty good rapport with Halliburton. And I think the 0:26:27.740 --> 0:26:29.800 30 to one is a bet on his defense, but 0:26:29.820 --> 0:26:32.620 it's also a bet on the Pacers defense overall being 0:26:32.660 --> 0:26:35.179 really good. and making them maybe a top 10 defense, 0:26:35.240 --> 0:26:37.500 because I think that's really what you would need. And 0:26:37.520 --> 0:26:39.320 then if they've got a top 10 defense, when you 0:26:39.380 --> 0:26:42.440 couple that with what Halliburton does and Carlisle does on 0:26:42.460 --> 0:26:44.369 the offensive side of the ball, this is going to 0:26:44.390 --> 0:26:47.330 be a really good team. So I think division plus 0:26:47.330 --> 0:26:50.130 370 is reasonable. I think that zoo, like all defense 0:26:50.190 --> 0:26:52.670 as a sprinkle at 30 to one is pretty good too. 0:26:54.530 --> 0:26:57.109 Zoo 15 plus points and Pacers to win 50 plus 0:26:57.150 --> 0:26:59.280 is plus 700. Can I interest you in that over 0:26:59.320 --> 0:26:59.820 at DraftKings? 0:27:00.350 --> 0:27:01.969 Yeah, I think that's good too. I think that he's 0:27:01.990 --> 0:27:04.409 going to have pretty good rapport, pick and roll with Halliburton. 0:27:05.810 --> 0:27:08.730 I think that that's a nice number too. 0:27:10.090 --> 0:27:12.689 What I like about this is I do like playing 0:27:12.730 --> 0:27:16.070 the alts here on this team in particular. I have 0:27:16.109 --> 0:27:18.930 them projected a little bit under, and there are spots 0:27:18.990 --> 0:27:21.530 in the system that I have where it's like, I 0:27:21.570 --> 0:27:23.690 just look at it and I go, you just don't 0:27:23.710 --> 0:27:25.429 know what you're doing. And the Pacers are one of them. 0:27:25.850 --> 0:27:28.310 Where it's like no amount of adjustment that I make 0:27:28.390 --> 0:27:31.150 to them is sufficient to get them where I feel 0:27:31.190 --> 0:27:33.750 like I want them. Because I do think that their 0:27:33.770 --> 0:27:36.920 peaks are good. Now, I am staying away because I 0:27:36.940 --> 0:27:42.740 do have some concerns. Hallie has always been a slow starter. 0:27:45.080 --> 0:27:48.720 He's also not a super aggressive guy. He's very much like, 0:27:48.740 --> 0:27:50.010 I'll let the game come to him. And if you're 0:27:50.030 --> 0:27:51.389 going to press him, he's like, I'll just kick it 0:27:51.410 --> 0:27:52.510 to them hard and he'll do his thing. 0:27:52.750 --> 0:27:52.930 Yeah. 0:27:54.500 --> 0:27:59.380 Zeus numbers took a dive last year and everybody does 0:27:59.420 --> 0:28:00.740 this when we have a player that had a really 0:28:00.780 --> 0:28:03.469 great season and then follows it up. And it's like, well, 0:28:03.490 --> 0:28:05.889 he was on the Clippers and they fell apart and 0:28:05.910 --> 0:28:08.530 they were terrible. And then he was on the Pacers 0:28:08.570 --> 0:28:11.070 who weren't trying for a couple of games. And I'm 0:28:11.090 --> 0:28:14.590 just kind of like, yeah, but like he's like he 0:28:14.609 --> 0:28:17.010 was part of that. Like his drop off was kind 0:28:17.050 --> 0:28:19.230 of part of the reason why the bottom fell out 0:28:19.260 --> 0:28:21.750 a little bit with them. And I'm not saying that like, 0:28:21.890 --> 0:28:23.129 I don't want to bet on that. I don't want 0:28:23.150 --> 0:28:26.570 to fade if it's a Zubats. Zubats, as I've been told. 0:28:28.369 --> 0:28:30.470 I just don't want, I am a little bit like 0:28:30.630 --> 0:28:32.690 nervous about this where it's like, it has been two 0:28:32.730 --> 0:28:35.880 years since we saw them in the finals. And that 0:28:35.900 --> 0:28:38.320 to me is like a little concerning. Their seed number 0:28:38.360 --> 0:28:40.920 is under seven and a half. It's minus 130. If 0:28:40.960 --> 0:28:44.540 we get a seeding alt at DK before the season opens, 0:28:44.620 --> 0:28:46.260 I would very much like to get like a under 0:28:46.320 --> 0:28:48.550 five and a half, under four and a half. Kind 0:28:48.570 --> 0:28:49.810 of look for them in case that there's like a 0:28:49.950 --> 0:28:53.620 really high um, ceiling here, like they're 46 and a 0:28:53.640 --> 0:28:55.860 half is the max all for them at DK. And 0:28:55.880 --> 0:28:58.360 that's only plus one 65. So I do like your 0:28:58.400 --> 0:29:00.280 angle of, I like the division play a lot. I 0:29:00.300 --> 0:29:01.880 think the division plays really smart. Jim, what do you 0:29:01.900 --> 0:29:02.500 think about the Pacers? 0:29:03.560 --> 0:29:05.300 Yeah, I think this is the way to play them. 0:29:05.380 --> 0:29:07.610 I'm actually lower on them as well. And it's almost 0:29:07.720 --> 0:29:10.950 because of what Joe said, um, where like everything revolves 0:29:10.990 --> 0:29:13.350 around Halliburton. And to me, that's really scary to have 0:29:13.410 --> 0:29:16.470 everything revolve around a guy fresh off of an Achilles. 0:29:16.810 --> 0:29:20.110 We really haven't seen that. all that many like super 0:29:20.150 --> 0:29:24.880 successful high load Achilles. Like we saw KD come back, 0:29:24.920 --> 0:29:28.080 but he's not that not everything runs through KD. It's a, 0:29:28.140 --> 0:29:31.000 it's a very different style of player. There really aren't 0:29:31.040 --> 0:29:35.210 that many like high heliocentric type players. It's why I'm 0:29:35.330 --> 0:29:37.470 curious to see what Tatum does too. I know Joe, 0:29:37.490 --> 0:29:39.470 you kind of like Tatum in terms of player bets. 0:29:39.510 --> 0:29:41.670 A couple of these guys, I think you shoot the 0:29:41.690 --> 0:29:45.150 moon because modern science, we could have kind of made 0:29:45.210 --> 0:29:47.510 it so that it's possible to come back from these. 0:29:47.970 --> 0:29:51.430 But I'm a little bit more skeptical. I'm also with you, Matt, 0:29:51.450 --> 0:29:53.710 on being a little bit lower on Zubat. So I'm 0:29:53.820 --> 0:29:55.800 lower on them as a whole, but I think the 0:29:55.860 --> 0:29:58.100 way to do it is to have them in this 0:29:58.140 --> 0:30:02.540 moonshot category because... if the Achilles is like just go 0:30:02.600 --> 0:30:07.040 and Halliburton's Halliburton, then yeah, this, this is a hundred percent. 0:30:07.100 --> 0:30:09.300 This can, this team can win the division. But I 0:30:09.360 --> 0:30:11.760 also think that like the, the year they went to 0:30:11.780 --> 0:30:14.680 the finals, like that regular season was kind of choppy. 0:30:14.740 --> 0:30:17.320 And this Eastern conference is way better than it was then. 0:30:17.340 --> 0:30:19.700 So in general, I'm a little over, but I don't 0:30:19.740 --> 0:30:22.620 find them in this, in this tier for, for the 0:30:22.640 --> 0:30:23.200 reasons later. 0:30:23.860 --> 0:30:27.320 Yeah. I think it's like literally just, there's no middle ground. 0:30:27.420 --> 0:30:29.770 I think like if Halliburton just looks like crap, then 0:30:29.790 --> 0:30:31.910 they're going to be awful. So like, I'm not really 0:30:31.990 --> 0:30:35.760 interested in their win total where I'm getting minus one 0:30:35.760 --> 0:30:38.060 10 or probably now like minus one 20 on each side. Right. 0:30:38.320 --> 0:30:40.640 Like I'm not super interested in that. I'd way rather 0:30:40.740 --> 0:30:43.920 bet these like alternate outcomes where it's like, Hey, like 0:30:44.530 --> 0:30:47.370 they're just really good again because he's back there. And 0:30:47.430 --> 0:30:49.530 if he's not back, then like, it is what it is, 0:30:49.610 --> 0:30:51.510 but we at least had these big plus numbers and 0:30:51.530 --> 0:30:53.530 we weren't saying like, all right, well, we're trying to 0:30:53.550 --> 0:30:56.900 get them to win 44 games this year. Like, I'm 0:30:56.920 --> 0:30:58.680 not super interested in that. I'd rather bet on them 0:30:58.720 --> 0:31:00.520 to win like 55, basically. 0:31:01.070 --> 0:31:04.470 I like that, that approach. All right, Jim, it's time. 0:31:06.030 --> 0:31:08.010 I want these teams, but you got to talk me 0:31:08.030 --> 0:31:10.510 into them. Give me your moonshot teams. 0:31:11.250 --> 0:31:14.240 They're like the two most hipster trendy teams. It's very 0:31:14.320 --> 0:31:16.700 on brand. It's the Memphis Grizzlies. It's the Utah jazz. 0:31:16.740 --> 0:31:19.680 I'll kind of talk about them in combination because the, the, 0:31:19.900 --> 0:31:22.180 the thought process is similar to teams who we've seen 0:31:22.240 --> 0:31:24.740 tanking for years, who I think put their foot on 0:31:24.760 --> 0:31:28.340 the gas this year. And I believe in both. For 0:31:28.360 --> 0:31:33.270 the Jazz, you know, we saw in very minor flashes 0:31:33.390 --> 0:31:35.990 that they had to do everything they could to lose 0:31:36.070 --> 0:31:38.750 because they were kind of stumbling into winning games or 0:31:38.790 --> 0:31:43.120 being in games. Their starting lineup this year for the Jazz, 0:31:43.190 --> 0:31:46.400 it's Keontae George, probably Darren Peterson. Oh, there could be 0:31:46.420 --> 0:31:49.719 Ace Bailey or even Ski Mahalik, however the hell you 0:31:49.740 --> 0:31:52.000 say that name. I saw both his first name. Laurie Markkinen, 0:31:52.020 --> 0:31:54.840 Jaron Jackson, Yusuf Nurkic. That is a really, really solid 0:31:54.880 --> 0:31:57.630 starting five with with good depth behind it. Cause it's, 0:31:57.850 --> 0:32:01.800 it's probably Ace Bailey, Bryson Sabah, Svi, Jackson Hayes, and 0:32:01.840 --> 0:32:03.760 a bunch of the guys who've been starting for them 0:32:04.180 --> 0:32:07.060 the last year. Like Kyle Filipowski was our highest usage 0:32:07.100 --> 0:32:09.980 guy last year. He's probably the 10th man here. The 0:32:10.000 --> 0:32:12.680 biggest worry is probably the defense. Maybe a little bit 0:32:12.720 --> 0:32:15.740 of on-ball creation here. The biggest thing with the Jazz, 0:32:15.760 --> 0:32:18.080 why I didn't put them into like my all-in thing 0:32:18.340 --> 0:32:21.260 is the market has moved a lot on this already. When, 0:32:21.710 --> 0:32:24.250 when I posted originally the, they were the first team 0:32:24.290 --> 0:32:25.970 on to be on, it was over 34 and a half. 0:32:26.010 --> 0:32:28.650 It's up to 30 over 38 and a half. So 0:32:28.690 --> 0:32:30.760 it's almost to the point where, you know, four or 0:32:30.780 --> 0:32:32.880 five wins like that. That's enough of a move that 0:32:32.900 --> 0:32:34.520 I'm like, all right, let's just kind of shoot the 0:32:34.540 --> 0:32:37.080 moon here. You can still get plus four 50 on 0:32:37.100 --> 0:32:40.330 them to win 45 games at draft Kings. You can 0:32:40.430 --> 0:32:42.930 bet them to make the playoffs at plus one 65 0:32:42.930 --> 0:32:47.050 out there. So I think, I think, we lost the 0:32:47.110 --> 0:32:49.570 floor of the jazz. They've gotten all the buzz. If 0:32:49.590 --> 0:32:52.150 you listen to any other, any good podcasts out there, 0:32:52.170 --> 0:32:56.620 they're talking up the jazz, their home court. Like they can't, 0:32:56.860 --> 0:32:59.580 they like, they probably the second best home court. They 0:32:59.620 --> 0:33:01.860 struggle to tank because their home, they get kept winning 0:33:01.880 --> 0:33:03.920 games at home. That's now going to be a tool 0:33:03.960 --> 0:33:07.840 for them. You know, Laurie and Keontae on the court together, 0:33:07.860 --> 0:33:10.280 they got 800 minutes. They were basically a breakeven team. 0:33:10.400 --> 0:33:13.000 The talent around them is so much better. Tiny sample, 0:33:13.000 --> 0:33:16.860 55 minutes, but Jaron Jackson was comically good in those 0:33:16.860 --> 0:33:20.900 55 minutes, plus 16.8 net rating. Do you want me 0:33:20.920 --> 0:33:23.620 to combo with Memphis since it's a similar story, or 0:33:23.640 --> 0:33:25.920 do you want to hop in on the Jazz first here, Matt? 0:33:28.180 --> 0:33:29.980 You're muted still. I don't know. Yeah, you're muted. 0:33:30.260 --> 0:33:31.260 Bang, we're back. 0:33:31.300 --> 0:33:33.080 Bang, we are back, baby. 0:33:33.220 --> 0:33:33.560 Minus 300 bits. 0:33:36.460 --> 0:33:40.940 To be fair, my keyboard clocks very loudly because it's satisfied. 0:33:41.240 --> 0:33:44.270 I'm trying to not have that be an undercurrent of 0:33:44.350 --> 0:33:48.790 background music. I saw them in person the other night, 0:33:49.630 --> 0:33:52.330 and you don't want to take almost anything away from 0:33:52.370 --> 0:33:55.270 first preseason game. I watch for organization. That's what I 0:33:55.310 --> 0:33:58.600 want to see. It's basically, do you know what the 0:33:58.630 --> 0:34:02.420 fuck you're doing? Jazz mixed results on that. Will Hardy 0:34:02.660 --> 0:34:04.860 was pretty encouraged by everything, but their weak side defense 0:34:04.880 --> 0:34:07.950 was really poor. That's fine. I honestly would have loved... 0:34:07.790 --> 0:34:10.590 If they had kept Walker Kessler and moved Laurie Markkinen, 0:34:10.710 --> 0:34:12.330 I think I probably would have had a division bet 0:34:12.390 --> 0:34:16.660 on them. I just really needed... I need a traditional 0:34:16.739 --> 0:34:19.320 five that's not Yusef Nurkic next to Jackson. 0:34:19.960 --> 0:34:22.239 I think those two pair kind of well together. You 0:34:22.280 --> 0:34:23.640 don't think so? They do. 0:34:24.640 --> 0:34:26.100 Nurk's a smart passer. 0:34:26.960 --> 0:34:27.900 Nurk's also cheaper. 0:34:28.380 --> 0:34:29.280 He's a big body. 0:34:29.320 --> 0:34:32.049 He gets the rebounds. Jackson gets the blocks. It's like 0:34:32.070 --> 0:34:35.469 they combine into a decent defensive... combination. 0:34:35.130 --> 0:34:36.670 Yeah i just would have liked to have seen like 0:34:36.710 --> 0:34:40.480 a like nurk's defense is mostly just like he's big 0:34:40.520 --> 0:34:43.259 and will hit you yeah and you there are better 0:34:43.300 --> 0:34:45.299 ways to expose him versus like kessler would have been 0:34:45.340 --> 0:34:50.800 really interesting from a like he's mobile and more athletic 0:34:50.880 --> 0:34:52.800 and younger and all those kind of things so i 0:34:52.820 --> 0:34:55.960 just would have liked that better um you know marketing 0:34:56.020 --> 0:34:58.340 and jackson are kind of learning together they are relying 0:34:58.380 --> 0:35:04.060 a lot on kiante whose defense is poor um And Darren, 0:35:04.200 --> 0:35:05.509 you know, I don't know what to kind of expect. 0:35:06.430 --> 0:35:08.370 I'm not going to. Well, I guess I'm choosing not 0:35:08.390 --> 0:35:11.310 to expect anything on Darren Peterson. I'm keeping the door open. 0:35:11.350 --> 0:35:14.150 I'm not like setting a low bar or high bar. 0:35:14.190 --> 0:35:16.220 I'm just like, let's see what you got, kid, because 0:35:16.239 --> 0:35:17.859 everybody really, really loves your game. 0:35:18.600 --> 0:35:21.460 I think that's part of the moonshot, too, with both 0:35:21.500 --> 0:35:24.940 of these teams is they have top three picks who, 0:35:25.100 --> 0:35:27.620 if they really click. there is a world in which 0:35:27.640 --> 0:35:30.440 these guys come in. I don't think either of these 0:35:30.500 --> 0:35:34.160 guys are Cooper flag rookie year level talents, but if 0:35:34.239 --> 0:35:36.320 either came in and were that level on the roster 0:35:36.360 --> 0:35:40.259 that has this talent level around them, then there's a 0:35:40.360 --> 0:35:45.029 real ceiling to these two teams, especially the Jazz. If 0:35:45.070 --> 0:35:48.330 you bet them to, if you get six seed exact 0:35:48.370 --> 0:35:51.009 or something, there's room at the bottom of the West 0:35:51.070 --> 0:35:53.029 now that I think they could pretty easily be the 0:35:53.090 --> 0:35:55.440 seven seed which puts them in pretty good place to, 0:35:55.500 --> 0:35:57.820 you know, has the seven seed ever missed the playoffs 0:35:57.860 --> 0:35:59.050 in the, in the current setup? 0:35:59.340 --> 0:35:59.490 No. 0:35:59.550 --> 0:36:02.930 Yeah. So if they get the seven seed, which I 0:36:02.969 --> 0:36:04.370 have them as a seventh best team in the West 0:36:04.410 --> 0:36:05.870 that they kind of walk in. 0:36:06.370 --> 0:36:07.950 What are the specific bets you want on Utah? 0:36:08.690 --> 0:36:12.170 Yeah. At this point I would do, I guess the 0:36:12.210 --> 0:36:15.230 bottom rung is playoffs at one 65. Next rung would 0:36:15.270 --> 0:36:18.210 be over 44 and a half at plus four 50. 0:36:18.210 --> 0:36:21.529 I think that's all I would do on these. So 0:36:21.550 --> 0:36:22.930 I've got more, a little more on Memphis. 0:36:23.540 --> 0:36:24.460 Okay. Hit me with Memphis. 0:36:25.580 --> 0:36:28.629 Similar. Another team that's like actively doing everything they could 0:36:28.650 --> 0:36:32.529 to lose. This roster looks like basically totally different. But 0:36:32.550 --> 0:36:35.800 you've got starting five here. Ty Jerome, laugh all you will. Oh, 0:36:35.969 --> 0:36:38.779 quiz time. I should have framed it differently. You know 0:36:38.800 --> 0:36:41.600 the answer now. I'll frame it this way instead. Name... 0:36:42.270 --> 0:36:45.430 Guess the number of players who scored more points per 0:36:45.430 --> 0:36:47.839 36 minutes than Ty Jerome last season. Like how many 0:36:47.880 --> 0:36:48.759 players do you think did that? 0:36:49.180 --> 0:36:52.420 It's like nobody. Like the two was unbelievable. 0:36:52.460 --> 0:36:52.640 Yeah. 0:36:53.080 --> 0:36:55.340 It's like, it's like Shea and Luca. 0:36:55.940 --> 0:36:57.940 That is the correct answer. It is Shea and Luca 0:36:58.000 --> 0:37:01.060 were the only players to score more points for 36 0:37:01.060 --> 0:37:03.890 than Ty Jerome last year. 15 game sample size again, 0:37:04.050 --> 0:37:06.430 as like leading a scrub unit, but I only let 0:37:06.469 --> 0:37:11.410 her play 20 minutes. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Cedric Howard. Cedric Howard. 0:37:11.590 --> 0:37:13.730 I think this stat's actually more impressive than the last one. 0:37:14.030 --> 0:37:19.330 They were positive in almost 1,400 Cedric Howard minutes last season. Wow. 0:37:19.390 --> 0:37:22.000 For that Grizzlies team, he played on the tanking teams. 0:37:22.380 --> 0:37:25.299 They were plus 0.9. Okay. I'm in. I'm in. 0:37:25.420 --> 0:37:27.100 How do we bet this? 0:37:27.440 --> 0:37:32.000 I'm in. Yes. So bottom rung would be over 34 0:37:32.000 --> 0:37:33.400 and a half. You can get plus 330 out there. 0:37:34.760 --> 0:37:37.839 um division third place exactly i really like this one 0:37:37.880 --> 0:37:39.980 because it i like the teams above them i don't 0:37:40.020 --> 0:37:42.060 like the teams below them you can get that at 0:37:42.120 --> 0:37:45.160 plus 350 um and then there's a bunch of really 0:37:45.200 --> 0:37:48.169 fun team specials there on drafting so hopefully you've tailed 0:37:48.190 --> 0:37:50.549 some of these because because they didn't move already um 0:37:50.590 --> 0:37:54.390 but there's a jerome edie and grizzlies 35 uh win 0:37:54.410 --> 0:37:58.029 that's 20 to 1 there's a boozer 20 jerome six 0:37:58.090 --> 0:38:01.319 assist that's at plus 500 and there's a boozer 20 0:38:01.320 --> 0:38:04.450 ed 12 rebounds grizzlies 30 wins i think that's my 0:38:04.489 --> 0:38:07.310 favorite at the current numbers that's at uh 18 to 0:38:07.310 --> 0:38:09.770 1 there so i i don't mind betting them to 0:38:09.810 --> 0:38:12.299 be in the play-in i i think you really can 0:38:12.340 --> 0:38:17.029 do a lot with with this grizzlies team um who 0:38:17.090 --> 0:38:19.350 are going to be trying now. And I, I, the 0:38:19.390 --> 0:38:21.969 biggest thing I asked you, Matt was like, Isolo, like, 0:38:22.230 --> 0:38:23.650 are we in, are we out? And you kind of 0:38:23.810 --> 0:38:25.150 came down to the middle. So it didn't talk me 0:38:25.210 --> 0:38:27.210 out of it. It didn't make me go like, you know, 0:38:27.270 --> 0:38:30.009 bet Grizzlies title or whatever. But I do think, I 0:38:30.090 --> 0:38:32.150 think there's a lot of, of talent here. And if 0:38:32.250 --> 0:38:34.880 Isolo can kind of just kickstart it and, or if 0:38:34.940 --> 0:38:37.859 Boozer is like better in his rookie year than anticipated, 0:38:37.900 --> 0:38:40.020 I do think there's a pretty, pretty decent ceiling to 0:38:40.180 --> 0:38:40.600 the Grizzlies. 0:38:41.590 --> 0:38:43.890 I think Boozer is going to be good out the gate. Like, 0:38:43.950 --> 0:38:47.890 I think that Boozer is the most ready NBA player 0:38:47.910 --> 0:38:51.509 out of that draft. Like his skillset's good. He's good 0:38:51.530 --> 0:38:53.690 at catching shoot threes, which I think is important. He's 0:38:53.710 --> 0:38:55.850 been pretty good at like, you know, like off the 0:38:55.930 --> 0:38:58.750 dribble threes, like pull up threes too. It's good passer. 0:38:58.770 --> 0:39:02.720 I think he's a good rebounder. I like the Grizzlies 0:39:02.760 --> 0:39:04.739 a lot. Like I'm, I'm with you here. I bet 0:39:04.860 --> 0:39:07.540 ED 12 plus rebounds per game too, at three to one. 0:39:07.560 --> 0:39:12.460 I like, I think there's definitely ceiling with this team. 0:39:12.520 --> 0:39:13.660 Like they're, they're good. 0:39:13.680 --> 0:39:18.120 Um, it's insane. It's like, yeah, they were like plus 0:39:18.120 --> 0:39:20.050 19 in his minutes or something crazy. Yeah. 0:39:20.070 --> 0:39:20.970 Like, I'm not sure. 0:39:21.650 --> 0:39:21.830 Good. 0:39:22.530 --> 0:39:24.209 No, I was saying, I don't know how like good 0:39:24.250 --> 0:39:25.969 they are because of E or if it's just kind 0:39:25.989 --> 0:39:29.180 of one of those things where it's like a funky, whatever, 0:39:29.300 --> 0:39:32.689 but like, don't know. I think they can be good. 0:39:33.150 --> 0:39:35.089 A lot of this is that I have problems with 0:39:35.190 --> 0:39:38.470 Isolo because of how he approached the roster that he had, 0:39:39.760 --> 0:39:42.089 but that roster is gone and they gave him the 0:39:42.160 --> 0:39:47.759 roster he wants. And Boozer is his type of big Um, look, 0:39:47.820 --> 0:39:50.880 it's preseason game one. I do not care about these things. 0:39:51.100 --> 0:39:54.480 I am just going to mention it. 11, five, four 0:39:55.160 --> 0:39:57.380 on five of nine shooting for Cameron Boozer and his 0:39:57.440 --> 0:39:59.940 preseason debut in 18 minutes. 0:40:01.300 --> 0:40:01.500 Yeah. 0:40:02.380 --> 0:40:04.340 A near triple double pace. 0:40:04.840 --> 0:40:05.020 Yeah. 0:40:05.460 --> 0:40:07.900 He's gonna be really good. Um, look, this one is 0:40:07.940 --> 0:40:09.920 probably too far, but I do think it's worth like a, 0:40:10.040 --> 0:40:11.779 it's a fun pizza bet that I do want to 0:40:11.800 --> 0:40:13.930 throw out there. Jim, have you looked what their, what 0:40:13.950 --> 0:40:14.640 their cup odds are? 0:40:16.390 --> 0:40:19.259 Oh, baby. Talk to me. 0:40:19.260 --> 0:40:20.020 700 to one. 0:40:21.980 --> 0:40:24.040 I mean, yeah, you have to do that at that point. 0:40:24.260 --> 0:40:25.940 Are they in like an insane group? They must be 0:40:25.960 --> 0:40:27.540 an insane group for it to be that long, but 0:40:28.300 --> 0:40:31.719 I don't, I don't care. 700 to one. 700 to one. 0:40:32.020 --> 0:40:33.880 Oh, well, it's cause they're in the group with the thunder. 0:40:34.200 --> 0:40:35.549 Like they're in the group with. 0:40:35.489 --> 0:40:36.890 The thunder and the hole. But you can get through 0:40:36.930 --> 0:40:38.529 as a wild card. Yeah. 0:40:38.550 --> 0:40:38.690 Yep. 0:40:39.230 --> 0:40:39.490 Yeah. 0:40:39.570 --> 0:40:39.930 Yeah. 0:40:39.930 --> 0:40:40.310 700 to one. 0:40:41.010 --> 0:40:43.529 Um, I will go super, I will go super quick 0:40:43.550 --> 0:40:46.460 through mine. Um, you mentioned one of the teams that 0:40:46.480 --> 0:40:48.299 you're lower on in this division, and I'm just going 0:40:48.320 --> 0:40:51.680 to go ahead and do it. You can't bet the 0:40:51.719 --> 0:40:55.340 Pelicans without having some sort of, it's going to be 0:40:55.380 --> 0:41:01.589 different this year, Lucy and the football construct. Jamal Mosley 0:41:01.670 --> 0:41:03.350 is all the reason I need. That's really all the 0:41:03.370 --> 0:41:05.770 reason I need. I just needed a coaching change to 0:41:05.790 --> 0:41:07.670 be able to be like, he'll get them to play harder. 0:41:07.770 --> 0:41:10.190 He'll play the right lineups. Mostly coming in with an 0:41:10.489 --> 0:41:12.380 ability here in the setup for him to be able 0:41:12.390 --> 0:41:16.350 to be like, we have actual expectations to, stop being 0:41:16.390 --> 0:41:19.810 an embarrassment. So if you don't perform, I'm yanking you. 0:41:20.489 --> 0:41:23.049 Even if they trade Trey Murphy, the return on that 0:41:23.130 --> 0:41:25.050 is probably going to be significant. They will get picks back. 0:41:25.260 --> 0:41:26.660 They will get picks back, but they probably get a 0:41:26.680 --> 0:41:30.259 good player with it too. They have internal development. I 0:41:30.300 --> 0:41:33.600 really liked Dejounte Murray's leadership last season. The problem is 0:41:33.640 --> 0:41:35.320 just like, look, you go up and down the Pelicans 0:41:35.340 --> 0:41:36.500 and you're just like, Oh, I like that guy. 0:41:36.700 --> 0:41:37.299 Oh, I like that guy. 0:41:37.420 --> 0:41:39.339 That guy's pretty good. That guy's pretty good. That guy's 0:41:39.360 --> 0:41:41.610 pretty good. And it doesn't work because it doesn't work together. 0:41:41.620 --> 0:41:44.950 But what if that's a coaching thing, you know, and 0:41:44.969 --> 0:41:47.770 Zion is a major, major problem. You know, this is 0:41:47.830 --> 0:41:50.450 not a Zion bet, but I do think there's a 0:41:50.469 --> 0:41:52.009 potential here where I just look at the, at the 0:41:52.070 --> 0:41:54.850 roster and what they could be capable of. If they 0:41:54.910 --> 0:41:58.660 are able to form under a structure that works 35 0:41:58.660 --> 0:42:00.779 plus wins is, is plus three 50, 40 plus wins 0:42:00.800 --> 0:42:02.799 is plus eight 50, 45 plus wins is plus 1800. 0:42:02.800 --> 0:42:07.670 By the way, only bet these. 0:42:08.030 --> 0:42:08.390 So as a. 0:42:08.370 --> 0:42:12.230 Comparison, 40 plus wins, which probably doesn't get you into 0:42:12.250 --> 0:42:15.050 the playoffs outright and probably gets you in the lower 0:42:15.150 --> 0:42:17.819 bottom of the bottom half of the play in is 0:42:17.890 --> 0:42:21.380 plus eight 50. Their playoff odds are plus 700. Yeah. 0:42:22.440 --> 0:42:25.700 So only play. If you like this, if you're a 0:42:25.940 --> 0:42:28.219 sicko idiot like me and you want to back the 0:42:28.260 --> 0:42:31.580 Pelicans only play it this way. I just look at 0:42:31.620 --> 0:42:35.610 this as I want structure. I want motivation and, I 0:42:35.630 --> 0:42:42.180 get year two fears and queen. I get Trey Murphy 0:42:42.320 --> 0:42:44.660 looking to work his way out of there. I get 0:42:44.680 --> 0:42:46.980 Dejounte Murray, who I still kind of believe in, especially 0:42:47.040 --> 0:42:50.340 after last year in terms of the intangible stuff. Sadiq 0:42:50.360 --> 0:42:52.580 Bay is really good. That contract. Actually, I came in 0:42:52.600 --> 0:42:55.900 being like, wow, my, my, my composite model put him 0:42:55.900 --> 0:42:58.819 6 million under his actual value. Like he's just like 0:42:58.860 --> 0:43:03.980 a really reliable player that probably was starting caliber guard shooter. Um, 0:43:04.700 --> 0:43:06.920 So I like the Pelicans here. The big one for 0:43:06.940 --> 0:43:12.460 me is this one. It's Toronto Raptors Atlantic Division plus 800. 0:43:12.460 --> 0:43:14.840 I'm all in. Now, that Saturday opening was like the 0:43:14.880 --> 0:43:17.680 worst possible outcome for me. They looked disorganized. They were 0:43:17.700 --> 0:43:22.420 completely overwhelmed by Miami. Jamal Shebb was timid. I don't 0:43:22.440 --> 0:43:24.859 even care that Kawhi didn't play because part of my 0:43:24.920 --> 0:43:26.739 bet on this team is that I'm backing the idea 0:43:26.760 --> 0:43:31.060 that they will have structure and functionality regardless of whether 0:43:31.100 --> 0:43:34.109 Kawhi plays or not. That Kawhi is only additive. So 0:43:34.180 --> 0:43:36.900 if he doesn't play, they can get past most teams. 0:43:37.560 --> 0:43:40.320 And when he does play, that increases their margin of 0:43:40.360 --> 0:43:43.399 victory and their percentage chance. Their big problem last year, 0:43:43.460 --> 0:43:46.580 they absolutely ruined bad teams, but they lost to everybody 0:43:46.620 --> 0:43:50.190 who had a pulse. That was their problem all year. However, 0:43:50.210 --> 0:43:51.950 I do think they found some of their identity in 0:43:51.969 --> 0:43:54.310 the playoffs being like, oh, RJ Barrett's like a guy. 0:43:54.330 --> 0:43:56.610 And I do think they found an identity being like, oh, 0:43:56.670 --> 0:43:59.609 Colin Murray-Boyles is a guy. And I do think that 0:43:59.650 --> 0:44:04.920 Jakob Pertl he had a major back injury. That's the 0:44:04.940 --> 0:44:06.600 worst contract in the league right now, but he had 0:44:06.620 --> 0:44:09.899 like a major back injury and it will probably pop 0:44:09.980 --> 0:44:12.020 up again at some point in his career. But there's 0:44:12.040 --> 0:44:13.580 also a very good chance of Yaka through and just 0:44:13.600 --> 0:44:16.000 goes back to being a perfectly serviceable center. And if 0:44:16.020 --> 0:44:18.319 you have Yaka and you have CMB and you add 0:44:18.360 --> 0:44:21.230 Kawhi on top of this, as long as Kawhi Leonard 0:44:21.270 --> 0:44:26.730 does not go to jail, I feel pretty good about 0:44:26.750 --> 0:44:30.420 the chances of the Toronto Raptors being elite. They're going 0:44:30.440 --> 0:44:32.560 to be a great defense. I think the structure will 0:44:32.600 --> 0:44:35.780 get better. I believe in the internal progression. I really 0:44:35.910 --> 0:44:38.509 only want Raptors division. I'll take the over on their 0:44:38.530 --> 0:44:41.470 win total. I'm definitely in on that. But my favorite 0:44:41.489 --> 0:44:44.270 bet here is Raptors division at plus 800, Jim. 0:44:44.870 --> 0:44:49.650 Can we pre-log next year, CMB, MIP? Because he's a 0:44:49.950 --> 0:44:51.750 year away. He's not going to be good enough this year. 0:44:51.770 --> 0:44:55.049 But yeah, Calamari Boyle's high of a rise up. Yeah, 0:44:55.110 --> 0:44:57.380 I love the Raptors. I'll join you on the division 0:44:57.410 --> 0:44:59.500 in part because I'm low on Knicks and Sixers there 0:44:59.540 --> 0:45:02.870 as well. And I'm with you. I think the biggest 0:45:02.950 --> 0:45:07.379 fear there is the beating up on the weak teams. 0:45:08.020 --> 0:45:10.799 Joe is definitely convinced that I'm not a Knicks fan. 0:45:10.820 --> 0:45:12.930 I had to do so much recon when they won 0:45:12.969 --> 0:45:15.049 the title. It's like, no, look, people from college who 0:45:15.070 --> 0:45:17.070 I haven't talked to since college are texting me. 0:45:17.050 --> 0:45:17.950 About the Knicks. 0:45:17.989 --> 0:45:21.140 I promise. He's like, yeah, you put, you did that 0:45:21.160 --> 0:45:23.859 in Photoshop. I don't believe it for a second. It's just, 0:45:23.989 --> 0:45:27.440 it's hard to bet them. Um, not last year, but, uh, yeah, I, 0:45:27.530 --> 0:45:29.670 I think Raptors, uh, are, are a good team to 0:45:29.730 --> 0:45:31.430 be on. Do you like, uh, Darko for coach of 0:45:31.450 --> 0:45:31.850 the year at all? 0:45:35.110 --> 0:45:37.370 Um, Ooh, that's a good question. 0:45:38.070 --> 0:45:38.569 What's his name? 0:45:38.610 --> 0:45:40.069 Kind of short. He's like 12 to one. 0:45:40.090 --> 0:45:40.530 Yeah. 0:45:40.570 --> 0:45:41.290 I don't like it. 0:45:41.390 --> 0:45:43.050 I don't like that one enough. 0:45:43.469 --> 0:45:45.520 Um, so a lot of this, honestly, is I do 0:45:45.540 --> 0:45:47.200 think the Atlantic's going to beat up on it, uh, 0:45:47.280 --> 0:45:50.250 on each other enough. I think, Knicks are dealing with 0:45:50.270 --> 0:45:53.069 championship hangover. The Sixers have a lot of new parts 0:45:53.090 --> 0:45:57.029 they have to figure out. Celtics are more reliable, as 0:45:57.070 --> 0:45:59.370 I said earlier. But if it's not the Celtics, I 0:45:59.410 --> 0:46:00.680 like the Raptors to be able to sneak up there 0:46:00.700 --> 0:46:03.180 and everyone be like, the Raptors are winning the division? 0:46:04.300 --> 0:46:06.839 I like that one a little bit better. Let's do 0:46:07.680 --> 0:46:10.860 some lightning round. Let's do the market is wrong. Let's 0:46:10.940 --> 0:46:15.100 hit this quickly. This is real simple. It's not about 0:46:15.120 --> 0:46:17.460 you don't love the team, but you're just like, the 0:46:17.480 --> 0:46:20.210 market's wrong. It's just wrong on this one. I will 0:46:20.250 --> 0:46:21.650 go first because you guys have already talked about it. 0:46:21.710 --> 0:46:22.130 The Rockets. 0:46:22.190 --> 0:46:25.969 I mentioned this earlier, just like they won 52 and 0:46:26.010 --> 0:46:28.469 they get Fred Vindley and Steven Adams back. And they 0:46:28.570 --> 0:46:31.839 add Marcus Smart, by the way. And they hated each 0:46:31.880 --> 0:46:34.219 other last year. It's unlikely they hate each other more 0:46:34.260 --> 0:46:37.860 this year. So Rockets is definitely mine. The market's just wrong. 0:46:37.920 --> 0:46:41.040 I like the over on them. Joe, you have one 0:46:41.060 --> 0:46:42.640 of the teams that I have in my lightning round 0:46:42.660 --> 0:46:44.360 so we can hit them right now, which is the 0:46:44.380 --> 0:46:47.700 Detroit Pistons. This is one of my strongest overplays. 0:46:48.390 --> 0:46:50.589 Yeah, I just think that they're basically bringing back more 0:46:50.610 --> 0:46:52.770 or less the same team. I think the John Collins 0:46:52.910 --> 0:46:56.290 addition I like. I think that he's a little bit 0:46:56.310 --> 0:46:58.529 of a better sub than Isaiah Stewart. I think it 0:46:58.550 --> 0:47:01.170 just kind of is what it is. But I like 0:47:01.190 --> 0:47:04.120 what they have there. I like that they brought Duren back. 0:47:04.219 --> 0:47:06.460 It seems like a lot of the conversation around Duren 0:47:08.000 --> 0:47:09.739 seemed to get lost in the sauce because he wasn't 0:47:09.760 --> 0:47:12.180 really talking to media at the time, and it was 0:47:12.200 --> 0:47:16.140 kind of coming out through leaks, agents, whatever. I have 0:47:16.180 --> 0:47:18.719 concerns about his agent, but that's a different issue. Um, 0:47:19.140 --> 0:47:21.840 so like I bet him 20 plus points per game, 0:47:22.180 --> 0:47:24.580 big number is out there. It was plus two 75 0:47:24.580 --> 0:47:26.940 for him to average 20 points a game. He's at 0:47:26.940 --> 0:47:30.500 19 point, whatever last year. I just think internal development, 0:47:30.540 --> 0:47:33.089 you're getting another year with Cade. Um, I think that 0:47:33.190 --> 0:47:36.310 you can play him and Collins at the same time 0:47:36.690 --> 0:47:39.109 where I did not feel comfortable saying you could play 0:47:39.150 --> 0:47:41.190 him and Stewart at the same time. So I think 0:47:41.210 --> 0:47:42.730 that you are going to see some different looks. I 0:47:42.750 --> 0:47:44.610 think he's, I think he's just going to improve. Um, 0:47:44.650 --> 0:47:46.290 I think he's going to build off of, you know, 0:47:46.310 --> 0:47:49.200 that kind of crappy post-season, um, and get back to it. 0:47:49.280 --> 0:47:52.219 So I like the Pistons. I think they're being underrated 0:47:52.580 --> 0:47:55.550 because of the postseason. It's kind of similarly to the Rockets. 0:47:55.630 --> 0:47:57.509 So I like Detroit here. I think they're gonna be 0:47:57.530 --> 0:47:58.169 good once again. 0:47:58.190 --> 0:48:02.969 Yeah, I'm with you, John Collins. I was on a 0:48:02.969 --> 0:48:04.930 podcast with Jared Dubin for Real GM earlier, and he 0:48:04.969 --> 0:48:07.270 was like, well, you know, you're losing like so much 0:48:07.290 --> 0:48:10.570 of their presence with like Isaiah Stewart and the toughness 0:48:10.590 --> 0:48:13.239 that he brought. And you're bringing in John Collins and 0:48:13.260 --> 0:48:15.510 the very first preseason game, John Collins tries to choke 0:48:15.570 --> 0:48:16.149 out Dylan Brooks. 0:48:16.210 --> 0:48:17.210 Yeah. I saw that. 0:48:17.850 --> 0:48:20.190 Great move by John Collins to be like, don't worry. 0:48:20.210 --> 0:48:21.390 I could do that too. 0:48:21.989 --> 0:48:22.370 Yeah. 0:48:23.230 --> 0:48:27.190 All right. Jim Turvey. I'll give you, I'll give you 0:48:27.230 --> 0:48:28.930 a minute on this, but then I will just go 0:48:28.989 --> 0:48:31.649 ahead and tell you, we are booking something on this 0:48:31.690 --> 0:48:35.670 team because I am oppo oppo oppo on you on 0:48:35.690 --> 0:48:35.989 this one. 0:48:36.560 --> 0:48:38.640 Well, I put them here because I'm being a little 0:48:38.660 --> 0:48:40.870 cheeky here. The market's wrong on the Lakers. And the 0:48:40.910 --> 0:48:42.790 market's always wrong on the Lakers. It's always wrong the 0:48:42.850 --> 0:48:46.770 other way. I definitely, this honestly probably should fit on 0:48:46.790 --> 0:48:48.469 an island because it does feel like, at least in 0:48:48.489 --> 0:48:51.509 terms of action, folks, I'm on an island here. For me, 0:48:51.550 --> 0:48:55.100 a lot of this pivots on Walker Kessler and Austin Reeves, 0:48:55.180 --> 0:49:00.200 and maybe even more so Walker Kessler. He's relatively unproven. 0:49:00.260 --> 0:49:03.500 And theoretically, people say he's injury prone. I think we 0:49:03.540 --> 0:49:06.180 need to talk about when people are labeled injury prone 0:49:06.219 --> 0:49:08.180 on these tanking teams. I actually don't think he's all 0:49:08.219 --> 0:49:11.569 that injury prone, but I mean, this was a 53 0:49:11.570 --> 0:49:14.350 win team last year. And I think LeBron was very 0:49:14.570 --> 0:49:17.210 like his skillset. He's LeBron. He's great. But like, how 0:49:17.270 --> 0:49:19.830 much are they really losing going down to just Luka? 0:49:19.890 --> 0:49:21.779 Now you can say maybe Luka's going to miss games, 0:49:21.890 --> 0:49:24.010 but that's where Reeves comes in. Now Reeves might miss games. 0:49:24.300 --> 0:49:27.380 This team is, I think, built pretty well to surround 0:49:27.780 --> 0:49:32.120 a heliocentric ball with a secondary score. Be that, you know, 0:49:32.140 --> 0:49:34.680 when they're healthy, it'll be Luka and Austin. But they 0:49:34.700 --> 0:49:37.379 got Quentin Grimes and Collin Sexton as well. I actually 0:49:37.400 --> 0:49:40.040 think the Collin Sexton pickup is really good. for those 0:49:40.080 --> 0:49:42.739 games that Luka and Austin Reeves misses. I know you 0:49:42.760 --> 0:49:45.120 don't love the offensive fit with Walker Kessler. I think 0:49:45.160 --> 0:49:46.670 it's a little better than you think. And I think 0:49:46.710 --> 0:49:49.649 the defensive side of things, I think him and Theibel, I'm, I'm, 0:49:50.110 --> 0:49:53.029 you know, Matisse Theibel season has, has started in full 0:49:53.110 --> 0:49:55.489 force for me here. You know, we'll see if he 0:49:55.530 --> 0:49:57.390 can really push up to the mid twenties or even 0:49:57.390 --> 0:49:59.319 30 minutes a game, because I think he'll be very good, 0:49:59.340 --> 0:50:01.520 but they've got a fair amount of guys of that cut, 0:50:01.540 --> 0:50:03.100 you know, Cameron Carr is even as a rookie, I 0:50:03.140 --> 0:50:04.839 think is going to be impressive. And I think we've 0:50:04.860 --> 0:50:08.790 seen good things from JJ Reddick. So, again, I'm kind 0:50:08.810 --> 0:50:11.330 of on an island here, but I like the over 49.5. 0:50:11.330 --> 0:50:14.610 I like the under 6.5 seed. To me, there's a 0:50:14.670 --> 0:50:17.549 very distinct cutoff of the top six teams, so that's 0:50:17.830 --> 0:50:21.150 my favorite way to bet it here. But the division, too, 0:50:21.190 --> 0:50:25.779 like who is beating them to win that division? They're 0:50:25.820 --> 0:50:32.100 minus 118. What team is winning that division, Matt? Oh, 0:50:32.140 --> 0:50:32.540 here we go. 0:50:32.560 --> 0:50:33.600 Matt's going to say the Clippers. 0:50:33.620 --> 0:50:39.270 Yeah. the suns would be the pick but i i 0:50:39.310 --> 0:50:40.950 don't know i i don't i think the suns played 0:50:40.969 --> 0:50:42.890 out of their ass last year i think that they 0:50:42.910 --> 0:50:44.690 were like they just were try. 0:50:44.410 --> 0:50:46.150 Hards and i don't know if you can do that 0:50:46.190 --> 0:50:48.950 again like after they tried so hard and they still 0:50:48.969 --> 0:50:50.970 were not good so i i have. 0:50:50.850 --> 0:50:54.339 Them winning the division yeah i just have them winning 0:50:54.380 --> 0:50:55.359 it with a number that i'm. 0:50:55.280 --> 0:50:58.020 Not gonna say but here's the thing my two favorite 0:50:58.040 --> 0:50:59.700 bets under six and a half for the seed and 0:50:59.940 --> 0:51:00.739 in the division. 0:51:02.130 --> 0:51:05.469 Yeah, no, I have them. Well, there is no world 0:51:05.510 --> 0:51:07.379 in which they get the, let me put it this way. 0:51:07.580 --> 0:51:09.940 If my, if my number, my numbers or whatever, but 0:51:09.980 --> 0:51:12.360 like if, if they were to actually pan out, the 0:51:12.400 --> 0:51:13.860 Lakers would be the first team to win a division 0:51:13.910 --> 0:51:15.770 and miss the playoffs. So. 0:51:21.600 --> 0:51:24.110 So wait, actually to drill down that first, like we 0:51:24.120 --> 0:51:25.390 don't have to spend too much time. So who are 0:51:25.489 --> 0:51:27.710 the teams that you have to, there'd be the 19 0:51:27.710 --> 0:51:29.090 who's who's six, seven, eight for you. 0:51:29.150 --> 0:51:30.790 No, there'll be in that. They'd be in the playing tournament. 0:51:30.910 --> 0:51:33.690 They'd be in the playoffs. They'd be the 17th. I 0:51:33.710 --> 0:51:39.100 haven't been 17. I do have the suns 0.1 wins 0:51:39.160 --> 0:51:43.279 behind them. I'm look, I'm too low on Lakers. I just, 0:51:43.420 --> 0:51:46.040 I've looked at this roster and I'm just like, I 0:51:46.080 --> 0:51:49.530 don't know, man. Quentin Grimes cannot be your like best 0:51:49.650 --> 0:51:52.050 starting perimeter defender. If they start Tybalt, I'll feel a 0:51:52.050 --> 0:51:54.310 little bit better about it. If Carr makes a leap 0:51:54.350 --> 0:51:57.390 and is an impact guy immediately, like I keep trying 0:51:57.410 --> 0:51:58.890 to find it and I just look at this and 0:51:58.910 --> 0:52:01.850 I'm just like, I don't buy this. I don't, I just, 0:52:02.030 --> 0:52:03.630 I cannot buy into the idea that they're going to 0:52:03.650 --> 0:52:07.530 be good defensively or okay defensively or not bottom 10. 0:52:07.530 --> 0:52:08.009 So we'll see. 0:52:08.030 --> 0:52:10.379 Like you said, if he stayed in Utah, you would 0:52:10.440 --> 0:52:11.300 admit in them division. 0:52:12.000 --> 0:52:13.779 Yeah. I like him there. I don't like him as 0:52:13.820 --> 0:52:15.959 a Luca fit. That's the problem is like, I don't 0:52:15.980 --> 0:52:16.700 think he's Luca additive. 0:52:17.330 --> 0:52:17.650 I don't know. 0:52:17.750 --> 0:52:18.210 I like them. 0:52:18.870 --> 0:52:19.610 I like the Lakers. 0:52:19.670 --> 0:52:20.730 I could be wrong. 0:52:20.830 --> 0:52:21.450 I could be wrong on this. 0:52:22.190 --> 0:52:24.370 It's so funny. It's the Lakers and it's like an 0:52:24.530 --> 0:52:26.880 all white Lakers. You think that the market would love 0:52:26.890 --> 0:52:28.880 them so much, but I somehow managed to be on 0:52:28.890 --> 0:52:31.240 the other side as normal. 0:52:31.280 --> 0:52:33.359 Jimmy got one minute to give me three more teams 0:52:33.400 --> 0:52:35.700 in lightning round that you want to take over positions on. 0:52:36.200 --> 0:52:38.279 Cool. Celtics. I don't even need to spend time where 0:52:38.300 --> 0:52:40.259 I did that. So I'll use 90 seconds together. I'll 0:52:40.280 --> 0:52:42.180 do calves. It's kind of a head to head with 0:52:42.980 --> 0:52:46.280 we've talked about pistons and pacers. This is another team 0:52:46.300 --> 0:52:48.780 where the last taste in our mouth was just awful. 0:52:48.820 --> 0:52:52.880 It was Kenny Atkinson saying analytically they won multiple games 0:52:52.960 --> 0:52:55.180 against the Knicks. But I think it's a really good 0:52:55.239 --> 0:52:57.580 regular season team. Again, I'm not going to bet them 0:52:57.600 --> 0:53:00.640 in the postseason, but that big four was plus 25.2 0:53:00.640 --> 0:53:05.330 in their 80 minutes played together. Jarrett Allen loved playing 0:53:05.410 --> 0:53:09.609 with James Harden. He looked elite. Peyton Watson has that 0:53:09.710 --> 0:53:11.870 upgrade for the fifth starter where they've never really been 0:53:11.910 --> 0:53:14.310 able to solve it. I don't know if he solves it, 0:53:14.360 --> 0:53:15.980 but I think he's better than all the other options 0:53:16.000 --> 0:53:18.580 they've had there. Their depth is decent. The backup center 0:53:18.600 --> 0:53:21.029 scares me a little bit, but you can do, you know, 0:53:21.090 --> 0:53:23.450 if Allen's out, you have Mobley play center and you 0:53:23.469 --> 0:53:26.270 have Peyton Watson. There's ways that you can cover that. 0:53:27.570 --> 0:53:30.410 So I actually kind of like their ceiling again, because 0:53:30.430 --> 0:53:33.330 I'm lower on Philadelphia and New York. I think them 0:53:33.370 --> 0:53:34.830 to be the top seed in the East for the 0:53:34.870 --> 0:53:37.860 regular season at nine to one on draft things is 0:53:37.910 --> 0:53:40.420 pretty nice. And I like they're just regular. I think 0:53:40.440 --> 0:53:41.859 they have a high floor as well. So I even 0:53:41.920 --> 0:53:44.279 like the over 47 and a half that you can 0:53:44.300 --> 0:53:46.560 get minus 128 draft games as well. And then the 0:53:46.600 --> 0:53:49.660 Hawks really quick division plus 285 seed under seven and 0:53:49.680 --> 0:53:52.570 a half plus 105. This is just basically the number, 0:53:53.830 --> 0:53:57.529 their lineup data after trading Trey had them as like 0:53:57.590 --> 0:53:59.570 one of the best teams. And even in the playoffs, 0:53:59.810 --> 0:54:01.950 how many teams beat the Knicks twice? It was Atlanta. 0:54:01.989 --> 0:54:04.779 So this one's just like a numbers play basically. I 0:54:04.780 --> 0:54:06.500 don't really have anything beyond that. 0:54:06.520 --> 0:54:07.040 Okay. 0:54:07.700 --> 0:54:09.580 Uh, Pistons are one of mine. I'm I've got the 0:54:09.660 --> 0:54:11.060 magic and Hornets for, I want to see what they 0:54:11.080 --> 0:54:13.459 look like in preseason and then kind of go from there. 0:54:13.500 --> 0:54:15.279 Jim and I've been talking back and forth about the 0:54:15.300 --> 0:54:16.580 Hornets quite a bit. And I don't really know where 0:54:16.620 --> 0:54:18.939 I stand on them. I, I basically want to see like, 0:54:19.440 --> 0:54:23.300 I think even early season, not preseason magic. If the offense, 0:54:23.860 --> 0:54:28.660 the offense, the offense looks better to start in preseason. 0:54:28.840 --> 0:54:30.500 I will take that as a very big indicator and 0:54:30.520 --> 0:54:32.200 I might be moved even though I'm under on them 0:54:32.239 --> 0:54:33.820 right now, I'll bump them up and probably take it 0:54:33.880 --> 0:54:35.739 over Hornets. I'm basically like, if they get into the 0:54:35.780 --> 0:54:38.850 regular season and it's just like, yeah, Kobe White's injured 0:54:38.890 --> 0:54:42.390 and Kong Kimmel's injured and Brendan, Brendan Miller's shoulders falling off. 0:54:42.430 --> 0:54:44.110 But you know what? They just make all the threes 0:54:44.160 --> 0:54:45.319 and they don't let you take them. And they win 0:54:45.380 --> 0:54:47.080 every night with math. I want to see Charles Lee's 0:54:47.120 --> 0:54:49.839 impact with this roster before I make a decision because 0:54:49.900 --> 0:54:53.080 metrically I like them a lot, but I'm not, I'm still, 0:54:53.219 --> 0:54:55.060 I am skittish on like, I don't know, man, you 0:54:55.080 --> 0:54:58.260 traded LaMelo ball for, for Nas Reed. And that's a 0:54:58.340 --> 0:55:01.450 big bet here. Uh, Joe, you got one minute met 0:55:01.489 --> 0:55:03.740 for your two, uh, lightning round bets. 0:55:04.180 --> 0:55:06.790 So, uh, I have the, I have the Orlando magic too. 0:55:06.890 --> 0:55:08.450 I think they're good for, I like kind of like 0:55:08.489 --> 0:55:11.170 them for the division. I think that they just cannot 0:55:11.210 --> 0:55:14.529 be like that bad again. Like their, their expectation is 0:55:14.550 --> 0:55:16.609 that they're going to be really good. Like you have 0:55:16.670 --> 0:55:18.469 really good talent there. Like as much as we hate 0:55:18.530 --> 0:55:21.049 on Paolo, Paolo is good. Franz is good. You have 0:55:21.090 --> 0:55:23.670 Desmond Bain, like they have a lot of talent. Um, 0:55:23.830 --> 0:55:25.690 and they have continuity, even though they didn't really play 0:55:25.710 --> 0:55:27.629 together last year. Cause everybody was in and out by 0:55:27.810 --> 0:55:30.060 because of injury. So I think that Orlando is pretty 0:55:30.080 --> 0:55:32.620 good division bet with Miami kind of going through maybe 0:55:32.660 --> 0:55:35.100 growing pains with Giannis and seeing how that roster fits. 0:55:35.540 --> 0:55:36.420 And then I don't know what to do with the 0:55:36.440 --> 0:55:39.379 Brooklyn Nets because I think that they're not very good. 0:55:39.900 --> 0:55:42.660 But at the same time, like you do have legitimate 0:55:42.980 --> 0:55:46.439 NBA players in Mike Porter Jr., Julius Randall. I think 0:55:46.560 --> 0:55:49.020 Yeoman is going to be a lot better. So I 0:55:49.160 --> 0:55:51.100 like I don't know what to do with them, but 0:55:51.180 --> 0:55:52.319 I don't think that they're going to be a team 0:55:52.340 --> 0:55:54.000 that I'm going to want to be betting against maybe 0:55:54.020 --> 0:55:56.180 on a nightly basis, at least early in the season. 0:55:56.200 --> 0:55:58.140 I think they're going to be undervalued relative to the market. 0:55:59.540 --> 0:56:02.920 Okay, let's get back to our best bets presented by 0:56:02.960 --> 0:56:06.920 DraftKings Sportsbook. These are the three that we are highest 0:56:07.100 --> 0:56:12.360 on this season. Jim, give us real quick your take 0:56:12.719 --> 0:56:13.920 on the Houston Rockets. 0:56:16.219 --> 0:56:19.140 Super high floor with a bit of ceiling as well. 0:56:19.200 --> 0:56:22.250 You've got all the roster back, plus the addition of 0:56:22.270 --> 0:56:24.750 Fred VanVleet, Marcus Smart, and Steven Adams at least to 0:56:24.770 --> 0:56:28.230 start the season. I think you can bet the seeding 0:56:28.850 --> 0:56:32.270 because the West has kind of that big gap there, 0:56:32.370 --> 0:56:34.549 but also the win total that I know Joe is 0:56:34.650 --> 0:56:35.210 on as well. 0:56:35.230 --> 0:56:38.250 Okay. Joe, you also like the Rockets. You like the 0:56:38.270 --> 0:56:39.489 win total. Yeah. 0:56:39.530 --> 0:56:41.200 So I think that the floor is really, really high 0:56:41.239 --> 0:56:43.570 with this team. They won over 50 games last season 0:56:43.590 --> 0:56:45.740 and we're getting a 47 and a half win total here. 0:56:46.200 --> 0:56:48.739 And they basically are bringing back Fred Van Vliet, who 0:56:49.180 --> 0:56:51.980 didn't play last year, the entire season. And he kind 0:56:52.000 --> 0:56:54.560 of fills the biggest miss that they had which was 0:56:54.620 --> 0:56:57.080 ball handling. You also bring in Marcus Smart, kind of 0:56:57.200 --> 0:57:00.840 adds that level of tenacity, toughness, and veteran leadership as well, 0:57:01.219 --> 0:57:04.020 and the guy that can help facilitate and move the basketball. 0:57:04.080 --> 0:57:06.910 So I think that just taking the ball out of 0:57:07.150 --> 0:57:10.549 Kevin Durant's hands from a facilitating perspective and allowing him 0:57:10.590 --> 0:57:12.710 to just be more of that scoring role is going 0:57:12.730 --> 0:57:14.930 to be really, really important for this Rockets team. Plus, 0:57:15.130 --> 0:57:17.530 Ime Odoka, great coach. I think this is going to 0:57:17.570 --> 0:57:20.500 be a very, very good regular season team. who can 0:57:20.540 --> 0:57:23.140 kind of build on not only internal development, but also 0:57:23.280 --> 0:57:26.030 adding in those complimentary veterans. So I think this is 0:57:26.050 --> 0:57:27.890 going to be a good spot for the Houston Rockets 0:57:27.930 --> 0:57:28.550 on the win total. 0:57:29.270 --> 0:57:33.110 Okay. Jim Turvey's best bet presented by DraftKings Sportsbook is 0:57:33.170 --> 0:57:36.310 the Rockets under five and a half on their seating. 0:57:36.330 --> 0:57:39.670 That means they're a top five seed in the Western Conference. 0:57:41.390 --> 0:57:44.060 Joe DeLera's over 47 and a half wins for the 0:57:44.080 --> 0:57:47.100 Houston Rockets. Mine is the Boston Celtics over 50 and 0:57:47.120 --> 0:57:51.240 a half wins because Joe Mazzulla is a psychopath. That's 0:57:51.260 --> 0:57:53.160 going to do it for buckets. Appreciate you guys being 0:57:53.220 --> 0:57:55.780 with us. We'll be back with more episodes this week. 0:57:55.800 --> 0:57:58.800 We're going to talk about all sorts of stuff. We're 0:57:58.820 --> 0:58:03.330 going to talk about MVP with Brandon Kravitz. We're going 0:58:03.350 --> 0:58:05.130 to talk of, and Joe DeLera. We're going to talk about, uh, 0:58:06.930 --> 0:58:09.810 we will do bearish teams later in the week where 0:58:09.850 --> 0:58:11.570 we break down the teams that we want to fade 0:58:11.610 --> 0:58:14.230 this year. We're going to do other awards. Jim Turvey 0:58:14.250 --> 0:58:16.310 and I are talking about that. We have content lined 0:58:16.370 --> 0:58:17.470 up for you for the next two weeks, getting you 0:58:17.510 --> 0:58:20.510 set for, uh, the NBA regular season here in two weeks. 0:58:20.530 --> 0:58:22.330 Appreciate you guys being with us. Make sure to follow 0:58:22.350 --> 0:58:25.550 these guys across social media. Download the Action Network app. 0:58:25.570 --> 0:58:28.710 My thanks to David Payne, our excellent producer. We'll see 0:58:28.730 --> 0:58:31.790 you guys again next time. Until then, let's get buckets. 0:58:34.960 --> 0:58:38.360 Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. 0:58:38.780 --> 0:58:41.520 If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 0:58:41.820 --> 0:58:43.100 help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.